TAAI 2016 Keynote Talk: Contention and Disruption
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Transcript of TAAI 2016 Keynote Talk: Contention and Disruption
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The 2016 Conference on Hsinchu, Taiwan, Keynote speech TAAI 2016Technologies and Applications of Artificial Intelligence 27 November 2016(TAAI 2016)
Contention and Disruption
H. Jaap van den Herik
Leiden Centre of Data Science Digital Technology for Law and Society (LCDS) (elaw)
Leiden University Leiden University
TAAI 2016: National Tsing Hua University
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AcknowledgementsWith much pleasure I would like to thank I-Chen Wu and the
Taiwanese Association for Artificial Intelligence for the invitation and Cindy Ko for the organisation of many details.
Research is team work over a long period of time. Therefore any list of collaborators is large. Below I provide a selection. For
their contributions and inspiration, I would like to thank:
I-Chen Wu, Aja Huang, S.C. Hsu, Tsan-sjeng Hsu, Hiroyuki Iida, Erik van der Werf, Victor Allis, Mark Winands, Jeroen Donkers,
Levente Kocsis, Dennis Breuker, Jahn Saito, Guillaume Chaslot, Jos Uiterwijk, Daniel Dennett, Adriaan de Groot, Joost Kok, Jacqueline Meulman, Aske Plaat, Michel Rademaker, Bart
Custers, Cor Veenman, Cees de Laat, members of the research school SIKS, members of LCDS, Joke Hellemons, Eric Postma.
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Contents1. Contention (1950-1990)2. Notions and Developments3. Four Methodological Leaders4. A Paradigm Shift5. Provisional Conclusions6. Disruption (1990-2030)7. Innovation and Nearby Innovations8. Four Conceptual Leaders9. Go for Go for TAAI10.Conclusions
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Contention (1950-1990-2010)
In the academic world:
Contention means: (a) rivalry or competition
(b) a point contended for
in a scientific debate
We consider both meanings
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Other Notions- Scientific Findings
Discoveries Revolutions
- A Paradigm Shift
- Intuitions
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Intuitions1. New Developments:
(a) Clouds(b) Crowds: - Crowdsourcing
- The Wisdom of the Crowd
2. Refinements:(c) WATSON
3. Opponents:(d) Games
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Prevailing Question on Contention
Will Contention between Paradigms lead to
a Paradigm Shift?
- A refinement of definitions is necessary.
What is - contention- a paradigm- a paradigm shift ?
7
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Two Well-known Paradigm Shifts
(1)From Ptolemaic Cosmology to Copernican
Cosmology
(2) From Newton’s physics to Einstein’s relativistic
theory
And maybe:(3) Erik Verlinde (2016)Emergent Gravity and the Dark
Universe
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Scientific Discoveries Karl Popper (1902 - 1994): The Logic of Scientific Discovery
Thomas Kuhn (1929 – 1996): The Structure of Scientific Revolutions
Imre Lakatos (1922 – 1974): The Methodology of Scientific Research
Programmes
Paul Feyerabend (1924 - 1994):Against Methods
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Four Methodological Leaders
Karl Popper
Thomas Kuhn
Imre Lakatos
Paul Feyeraben
d
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Due Credit to the Great MenKarl Popper (1934). Logik der Forschung. English
translation (1959). The Logic of Scientific Discovery. Basic Books, New York, N.Y.
Thomas Kuhn (1962). The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. University of Chicago Press. Chicago, IL.
Imre Lakatos, John Worall, and Gregory Currie (1980). The Methodology of Scientific Research Programmes. Cambridge University Press, USA.
Imre Lakatos (1976) Proofs and Refutations: The Logic of Mathematical Discovery. Cambridge University Press, USA.
Paul Feyerabend (1975). Against Method. New Left Books, London, UK.
Imre Lakatos, Paul Feyerabend, and Matteo Matterlini (1999). For and Against Methods. University of Chicago Press, USA.
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Four Scientific Domains1. Games
Rivals: Minimax and Monte Carlo Tree Search
2. (Super)computersRivals: Personal computing and Cloud Computing
(workstations inclusive)
3. WATSONRivals: Human Intellect and WATSON
4. eBayRivals (three): (a) Human Decision
(b) Computer Decision(c) Crowdsourced Online Dispute
Resolution
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The World of Games
From Chess to Go
From Minimax to MCTS
Is this a Paradigm Shift ?
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Scientific Breakthroughs on Computers and Games
John von Neumann (1903-1957):Theory of Games and Economic Behavior
Claude Shannon (1916-2001):Chess Programming / Information Theory
Alan Turing (1912-1954):Turing Machine
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Three Leaders in Computer Science
John von Neumann
Claude Shannon
Alan Turing
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Five Challenging Questions1. Can a computer play Chess and
Go?2. Can a computer play at
grandmaster level?3. Can a computer defeat the human
world champion?4. Can a computer solve the game?5. Are some generic ideas applicable
elsewhere?
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Minimax
3 4 2 7
3 2
[3]
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α-β Algorithm
3 4 2 7
3
3
2β-pruning
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The Strength of α-β
3 4 2More than thousand prunings
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The Importance of α-β Algorithm
3 4 2
β-pruning
3
3
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THE NUMBER OF DIFFERENT,
REACHABLE
POSITIONS IN CHESS IS
(CHINCHALKAR): 1046
Tromp (2016): for Go it is 10172
The Possibilities of Chess
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A Calculation (around 2000)
NUMBER OF POSSIBILITIES: 1046
SAVINGS BY α-Β ALGORITHM: 1023
1000 PARALLEL PROCESSORS: 103
POSITIONS PER SECOND: 109
LEADS TO: 1023-12 = 1011 SECONDSA CENTURY IS 109 SECONDSSOLVING CHESS: 102 CENTURIES
SO 100 CENTURIES OR 10,000 YEARSWE RETURN TO THIS NUMBER.
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Improvements on the Estimate• MATJAŽ GAMS (30 August 2005)
In 2035 a machine takes 4 months to solve chess.
• VINCENT DIEPEVEEN (27 October 2005)In 2066 the game of chess is solved.
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The Impact of Moore’s LawGAMS AND DIEPEVEEN RELY ON
MOORE’S LAW
Every 18 months the computer capacity is doubled.
Therefore in 30 years (30 = 20 x 1.5)
the law gives a speed up of 220 = 106
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A New Calculation (2010)
NUMBER OF POSSIBILITIES: 1046
SAVINGS BY α-Β ALGORITHM: 1023
1000 PARALLEL PROCESSORS: 103
POSITIONS PER SECOND: 1014 (9+6=15; 15-1=14)LEADS TO: 1023-17 = 106 SECONDSA CENTURY IS 109 SECONDSSOLVING CHESS: 10-3 CENTURIES
So roughly 37 days in 2035. This is for Chess.
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When will Go be solved?
Open Question
After 2050, if it may happen at all.
This opinion is supported by an old sheet from 2011.
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OLD SHEET (2011) FUTURE EXPECTATIONS• MoGo-Titan defeats a top Go player in• 2008 9 – stones handicap• 2009 - 8 – stones handicap• 2010 - 7 – stones handicap• 2011 - 6 – stones handicap so far OK• 2012 - 5 – stones handicap• 2014 - 4 – stones handicap• 2016 - 3 – stones handicap• 2018 - 2 – stones handicap• 2019 - 1 – stones handicap• 2020 - ERICA defeats the human Go World
ChampionThe singularity point in Go is reached
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Two Related Questions
(1)Is MCTS reflective of Kuhn’s viewpoint?
(2)Is MCTS a result of Feyerabend’s view?
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Provisional Conclusions on a Paradigm Shift for
Games(1)From Chess to Go is a shift of focus
(not a paradigm shift)
(2) From Minimax to MCTS is/comes closer to a paradigm shift
It weakly fulfils the conditions of a paradigm shift(using a new framework, using a new technology).
[ see Newton – Einstein – Verlinde]
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Disruption (1990-2016-2030)Disruption is the successor of
Contention.Disruption means (a) the change that occurs when new digital technologies and business models affect the value propositions of existing goods and services
(b) the displacement of an existing technology (market or industry) by something completely new and more efficient and more worth while.We consider both meanings.
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Prevailing Question on Disruption
Will Disruption lead to the emergence of a New Paradigm?
- A refinement of definitions is necessary, e.g.,
Innovation vs. Disruption- What is the difference between
- (a) a paradigm shift, and- (b) a new paradigm?
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Announcements of Disruptive Thoughts
Daniël Dennett (1990):Consciousness ExplainedRichard Susskind (1998):Robot Doctors and Robot LawyersNick Bostrom (2014):SuperintelligenceJaap van den Herik (2016): Intuition is Programmable
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Four Announcers of Disruptive Thoughts
Daniel Dennett
Richard Susskind
Nick Bostrom
Jaap van den
Herik
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Nine (Nearby) Innovations• Elon Musk: autonomous cars• Richard Susskind: robot doctors and
lawyers • Nikolaos Aletras et al.: AI Judge• Block Chain: bitcoins• Internet of Things• Drones• Crowdsourced Online Dispute Resolution• Uber Taxi• AirBnb
• What is a disruptive innovation?
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Ethical Decisions by Intelligent Programs
- Autonomous cars- Elon Musk
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Robot doctors and lawyers? It’s a change we should embrace
Richard Susskind Nov. 2015
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A Da Vinci surgical robot performs a procedure at the Charles Nicolle hospital in Rouen. Nov. 2015
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PeerJ Computer Science 2:e93 October 24, 2016
https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj-cs.93
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Big Data Discovery is the combination of Big Data, Data Science and Data Discovery
(Source Gartner)
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The Fifth Breakthrough (Source Gartner)
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IntuitionTwo key Questions: What is Intuition?
Is Intuition Programmable?
Definition 1 (Rorty): "Intuition is unjustified false belief not preceded by inference; in this (the commonest) sense 'an intuition' means 'a hunch'. The existence of hunches is uncontroversial and not of philosophical interest."
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Two more definitions (1)
Definition by Poincaré (1913)
Definition by Euwe (Tilburg, 1964)"The essential element of playing chess at a high level is inspiration. The skill competence of a chess player is based on a multitude of factors, such as directly accessible knowledge, memory, accuracy, ability for combinations, but especially on consolidated experience. De Groot considers the latter as indicative for the distinction between master and non-master. Yet, there are chess masters who (in brief) know everything and see everything and still never will succeed in reaching the highest echelons. It is said that they do not have sufficient imagination. It is thought that these players do not have from time to time a lucid thought, say a hunch." [Emphasis added by vdH]
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Two more definitions (2)Definition 2 (De Groot): "Intuition is having judgements (or making
decisions) in a manner that cannot be made explicit."
Definition 3 (Michie): "Intuition is simply a name for rule-based behaviour where the rules are not accessible for consciousness."
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The Place of Intuition
Four forms of intuition are
• Mental intuition,• Physical intuition,• Emotional intuition, and• Environmental intuition.
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The Model by McWhinney
Grammars of EngagementTHE FOUR MODES
SOURCE DETERMINED VOLUNTARISTIC REFERENCES & COMMENTS
FOUR REALITIES Unitary Sensory Social Mythic McWhinney (1984).
BUDDHIST Samjña Rupa Vedana Samskara Conze (1951).
PLATO Reason Understanding Opinion Perception (faith) of Shadows
Jowett’s terms from The Republic and Gilbert Ryle (1967).
GOSPELS Matthew Mark Luke John (Lion) (Ox) (Man) (Eagle)
The parallels were observed and analyzed by John Lai (1996). The metaphors are from Revelation, 4:7.
LAKOTA INDIAN
North South West East(Buffalo) (Mouse) (Bear) (Eagle)
Storm (1972) writing from a Plains Indian worldview.
JUNG Thinking Sensing Feeling Intuiting Jung’s Personality Types (1920).
LESHAN Clairvoyant Sensory Transpsychic Mythic Lawrence LeShan (1976).Descriptions of exceptional people.
HERMANN Left Left Right RightCerebral Limbic Limbic Cerebral Ned Hermann (1989).
LATOUR
Being External Social Signification Reality Bond and Meaning
Bruno Latour (1991).
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From McWhinney
Back to Jung (1920)
Focussing on Intuition
I-Chen Wu
Letty Raaphorst
Aja Huang
Jaap van den Herik
Thinking
Intuiting
Sensing
Feeling
An Instantiation of the Four Modes
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Three Friends in the Future
• Big Data
• High Performance Computing
• Deep Learning
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Roadmap to Deep LearningArtificial Intelligence 1950-1990
Machine Learning 1990-2000
Adaptivity 2000-2005
Dimension Reduction 2005-2010
Deep Learning 2010-2015
Big Data & HPC 2012-2017
New Statistics 2014-2019
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Go for Go for TAAIBack to Go
Back to Aja Huang to Google DeepMind
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Google DeepMind 2016
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Differences between Chess and Go
Chess GoGame complexity 10^46 10^172Tree evaluation strong point weak pointSearch method minimax (α-β) MCTS
+enhancement +enhancementBreakthrough Tuning parameters Big Data
Search enhancements UnsupervisedReinforcement
LearningHPC HPC+
Currently Komodo 3400 Elo pts AlphaGo defeats Fan Hui
Carlson 2851 Elo pts 5-0 (October 2015) and Lee Sedol 4-1(March
2016)
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Match 1: Lee Sedol vs Alpha Go
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Game 4: Lee Sedol vs Alpha Go after move 79
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Lee Sedol wins Game 4 from AlphaGo
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From Erica to AlphaGo
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Lee Sedol Congratulates Hassabis
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CONCLUSIONS ON GAMES
1. Computers will solve a range of games.
2. New games will emerge.
3. Humans will continuously learn from computers.
4. The Games Research will envisage new games and even more new computer techniques.
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CONCLUSIONS ON AIThe new emerging paradigm is:
Understanding the Intuition of a Network that results from a Deep Learning procedure
In summary,Our world is moving from decisions made by humans to decisions made by computers.
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THE FUTURE• In 2025, an AI-program is clever, but
not very clever• In 2035, an AI-judge makes verdicts in
plain cases• In 2050, robots will outperform human
soccer teams• In 2080, AI-judges are more competent
in ethical decisions than humans• After 84 years, an AI-program will act
as a full professor in all disciplines
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ADVICEThe new future is NOT the end of making decisions (judge, manager, game player or professor). Both humans and robots will:
- address and solve new challenges- improve their experience - develop fully new tracks.
This is a promising perspective.