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UNFCCC WORKSHOP: STANDARDS FOR BASELINE SCENARIO IDENTIFICATION AND BASELINE EMISSION CALCULATIONS MARCH2011

PRESENTATION BY FELICITY SPORS (FSPORS@WORLDBANK.ORG)

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Contents

• Purpose of the tools

• Assessment of the tools

• Exploration of alternatives for LDCs and underrepresented countries

• Recommendations for way forward

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Purpose of the three tools

3 proposed Baseline tools:

a) baseline identification, b) emission calculation and c) determination  of most attractive  alternative of a CDM  project component 

1. Guidelines for methodology development?

2. Basis to assess methodologies and standardized baselines?

3. Framework for standardized baselines development?

GOAL: increase the transparency of meth process and its predictability

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Useful for clarifying if some issues addressed (see input):Must ensure consistency with past decisions. Specific examples from input:

- General editing and consistency check with CDM glossary

- MABS – new term appears unnecessary. - not clear why in cases where additional demand is met in part by the CDM project

activity and in part by other market activities it should always be assumed that those other activities are first in displacing historical consumption

- An overly conservative 'minimum approach' is introduced - Relation of tool determining most attractive alternatives to investment analysis is not

clear.

Less useful: Oppose requirement that the approaches are mandatory. Therefore would have minimal use as a basis for assessing methodologies.

Highly questionable: A standardized baseline is:

“A baseline established for a Party or a group of Parties to facilitate the calculation of emission reduction and removals and/or the determination of additionality for clean development mechanism project activities, while providing assistance for ensuring environmental integrity (-/CMP.6, paragraph 44)”.

Standardized baselines are not established project by project.

None of the 3 tools address additionality and therefore they cannot form a suitable framework for standardized baselines.

Assessment of Draft tools

As guidelines (i.e. voluntary) for CDM Meth Development

Basis for assessing methodologies.

Framework for standardized baselines

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• Proposed tools do move towards standardizing baseline selection and therefore can greatly assist in development of new methodologies.

• Tools do not appear to be able to define standardized approaches nor to deliver in areas and sectors most critical to under-represented countries (i.e. industrial energy efficiency, buildings, transport, household energy consumption).

• Other tools could be more useful:

a. Default energy saving values,

b. Benchmarks,

c. Positive additionality lists

d. Addressing suppressed demand using defaults

Exploration of alternative options for supporting LDCs or underrepresented host countries

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Possible way forward

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Thanks for listening