T he Man-In-The-Loop (MITL) Nowcast Demonstration: Forecaster Input into a Thunderstorm Nowcasting...
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Transcript of T he Man-In-The-Loop (MITL) Nowcast Demonstration: Forecaster Input into a Thunderstorm Nowcasting...
![Page 1: T he Man-In-The-Loop (MITL) Nowcast Demonstration: Forecaster Input into a Thunderstorm Nowcasting System R. Roberts, T. Saxen, C. Mueller, E. Nelson,](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070403/56649f2f5503460f94c49688/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Man-In-The-Loop (MITL) Nowcast Demonstration: Forecaster Input into a Thunderstorm Nowcasting System
R. Roberts, T. Saxen, C. Mueller, E. Nelson, A. Crook, H. Cai, J. Pinto, J. Wilson, D. Megenhardt, D. Albo, S. Dettling, N. Oien,; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO
S. Fano, W. Bunting; National Weather Service Forecast Office, Ft. Worth, TX
K. Johnston, S. Smith, M. Ba; National Weather Service, Silver Spring, MD
T. Amis; NWS Central Weather Service Unit, Ft. Worth, TX
8 September 2005Toulouse
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•To determine the role of the forecaster in nowcasting
•To demonstrate the added value of forecaster input into automated aviation-related thunderstorm nowcast products
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MITL Demonstration
NWS Forecaster NCARAuto-nowcaster System
National Weather Service Forecast Office Ft. Worth, Texas
End User Aviation Community Public
March 2005 – March 2007
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Extrapolates, grows, dissipates and initiates storms.
1 hour forecast Verification
Storm Initiationnowcasts
Extrapolated nowcasts
NCAR Auto-Nowcaster (ANC) System
How does it do this?
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Combined Likelihood Field for Storm Initiation
Blue Regions - Little chance of storm development
Green Regions - Moderate likelihood for thunderstorms
Red Regions - Areas of forecast storm initiation
60 min Storm Initiation Likelihood Field
• Environmental conditions (Numerical Model)
– Frontal forcing (θe gradients, vorticity, convergence)
– CAPE/CIN Layered instability– CAPE (max between 900 and 700 mb)– Relative humidity (average from 875-to-
725 mb)• Boundary-layer
– Magnitude of convergence and vertical shear
– Colliding boundaries– Vertical velocity along boundary – Boundary-relative steering flow– New storm development along boundary
• Clouds– Clear sky or cumulus clouds– Cloud growth observed with cloud top
cooling rate
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MITL Demonstration
NWS Forecaster? NCARAuto-nowcaster System
National Weather Service Forecast Office Ft. Worth, Texas
End User Aviation Community Public
March 2005 – March 2007
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FAA RCWF Domain June 12, 2003
A single piece of observational data alone is not sufficient to automatically detect surface convergence boundaries on all scales, from a cold front down to gust fronts and lake breezes. Forecasters can fill this role.
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60 min
0 min
Entering convergence features locations requires only a few minutes of a forecaster’s time…
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However, not all boundaries are created equal…..
Thunderstorm Initiation Likelihood Field
So have added a new tool: Human-drawn polygon tool to increase or decrease forecast interest in an area
Tool was used at the WFO to bump up interest in this area
Thunderstorm Initiation Likelihood Field
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Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005
Forecast: 1831 ZRadar Image: 1831 Z
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Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005
Forecast: 1842 ZRadar Image: 1842 Z
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Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005
Forecast: 1854 ZRadar Image: 1854 Z
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Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005
Forecast: 1905 ZRadar Image: 1905 Z
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Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005
Forecast: 1831 ZRadar Image: 1831 Z
Forecast: 1831 ZRadar Image: 1929 Z
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Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005
Forecast: 1842 ZRadar Image: 1842 Z
Forecast: 1842 ZRadar Image: 1941 Z
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Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005
Forecast: 1854 ZRadar Image: 1854 Z
Forecast: 1854 ZRadar Image: 1952 Z
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Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005
Forecast: 1905 ZRadar Image: 1905 Z
Forecast: 1905 ZRadar Image: 2003 Z
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Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005
Forecast: 1917 ZRadar Image: 1917 Z
Forecast: 1917 ZRadar Image: 2020 Z
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Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005
Forecast: 1929 ZRadar Image: 1934 Z
Forecast: 1929 ZRadar Image: 2030 Z
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Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005
Forecast: 1941 ZRadar Image: 1940 Z
Forecast: 1941 ZRadar Image: 2042 Z
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Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005
Forecast: 1952 ZRadar Image: 1951 Z
Forecast: 1952 ZRadar Image: 2054 Z
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Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005
Forecast: 2003 ZRadar Image: 2003 Z
Forecast: 2003 ZRadar Image: 2107 Z
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Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005
Forecast: 2020 ZRadar Image: 2020 Z
Forecast: 2020 ZRadar Image: 2119 Z
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Ft. Worth WFO 25 April 2005
Forecast: 2030 ZRadar Image: 2030 Z
Forecast: 2030 ZRadar Image: 2129 Z
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60 min Nowcast Field
End End End
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0
5
10
15
20
25
Poor Reasonable Good Very Good
Forecasters’ Qualitative Assessment of Nowcasts
For 43 events
Forecast Quality: GoodNo initiation was forecasted on boundary 1 and none occurred. Boundary 3 is showing initiation just west of Young and Stephens Counties.Forecast Quality: PoorSlow response on Boundary 6. Cells beginning to initiate in Kaufman County but no initiation shown by Auto-nowcaster.
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AREA WEATHER UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 310 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2005 > WARNING DECISION UPDATE FOR NORTH TEXAS
MESOANALYSIS PROGRAMS SHOW 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE ALONG AND JUST AHEADOF DRYLINE. THUS...CU/DEVELOPING STORMS ALONG/E OF DRYLINE SHOULDCONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. STORM INITIATION TOOL ALSO SUGGESTS HIGHPOSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SW...OVER CORYELL/LAMPASAS COUNTY AREA. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND AT LEAST MID-LEVEL MESOS. AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO THE EVENING...A MORE LINEAR MODE IS EXPECTED.
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Summary• Initial results of the forecaster-computer mix are very encouraging
• Based on forecaster feedback modifications have been made to the ANC system in real-time and more will be added this winter
• Quantitative and qualitative evaluations of performance will be done at the end of the first year
-includes working closely with B. Brown’s group to use their new object-oriented verification techniques
• Continue training forecasters on the ANC system and working closely with the CWSU to refine the nowcast products for the aviation community
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Is there a role for the forecaster in nowcasting?