Systems Planning and Analysis, Inc. Budget Exhibit ... · 07/12/2016 · Budget Exhibit Analysis...
Transcript of Systems Planning and Analysis, Inc. Budget Exhibit ... · 07/12/2016 · Budget Exhibit Analysis...
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Budget Exhibit Analysis Tool (BEAT)
SYST/OR 699Master’s Project
12/9/2016
FALL 2016
Chris AndersonKris Cruz
Jhonnattan DiazSaid Masoud
Systems Planning and Analysis, Inc.
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Agenda
• Background
• Problem/Need
• Stakeholders/Objectives
• Scope/Nomenclature
• Data Extraction
• Architecture
• Approach/Results
• Future Work
• Conclusion
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Background
[1] - Rugy, Veronique de. 2013. High Levels of Government Spending Become Status Quo. Fairfax: Mercatus Center.
Overall Federal Budget in
FY05 dollars (1945 – 2013)
3
Supplemental FundingBase Funding
DoD Budget in FY16
dollars (1950 - 2025)
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Background
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Problem Statement
There is currently no known tool for housing and visualizing DoDresearch and development funding data
• Data are dispersed into many separate documents/locations
• Manual formatting of data is time-consuming
• No efficient way to isolate and visualize data meeting a set of user-specified criteria
Current Analysis
• Govini, a big data analysis company, uses a custom-builttaxonomy in order to align publicly available data; layeringonto their proprietary analytics platform [3]
• However, this work is aimed at visualizing market ownershipbetween defense contractors in different fields of research,rather than changes in forecasted budgets over time
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Need Statement
There is a need to have a centralized repository of allPresidential Budget Exhibits in a useable format, with theability to set user-specified criteria to perform customvisualizations
6
Budget
Files
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Stakeholders
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Objectives
• Objective # 1: Trend analysis on high-level Presidentialbudget exhibits (R-1)o Supports the identification of historic trends of interest over time Decremented, Sustained, or Increased funding
• Objective # 2: Deep dive trend analysis derived from trendsof the R-1, utilizing the more detailed Presidential budgetexhibits (R-2)o Supports the identification of trends of at the PE level; Analysts can: Identify causal relationships Perform qualitative analysis
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Scope
Appropriation
Category
Scope Funding
PolicyResearch, Development,
Test, and Evaluation
(RDT&E)
Activities and expenses related to
research, development, test, and
evaluation
Incremental
Procurement (PROC) End items >= $100K system unit cost, All centrally
managed items, Initial spares, Labor for certain
production-related functions (e.g., item assembly,
quality assurance)
Full
Operations and Maintenance
(O&M)
Replenishment spares, Fuel, Civilian salaries,
Construction projects < $750K, Travel, Non-
centrally managed end items < $100K system unit
cost
Annual
Military Personnel Expenses
(MILPER)
Military Personnel Expenses Annual
Military Construction (MILCON) Construction Projects >= $750K Full
Budget Activity Number Budget Activity Name1 Basic Research
2 Applied Research
3 Advanced Technology Development
4 Advanced Concept Development &
Prototypes5 System Development and Demonstration
6 RDT&E Management and Support
7 Operational System Development
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Nomenclature
10
DoD Program
PE: 06######
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Nomenclature
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DoD Program
Budget Activity
PE: 0603####
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Nomenclature
DoD Program
Budget Activity
Serial Number
A series of numbers…in order
E.g.
PE: 060328##
PE Number PE Name
0603203F Advanced Aerospace Sensors
0603211F Aerospace Technology Dev/Demo
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Nomenclature
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DoD Program
Budget Activity
Serial Number
A series of numbers…in orderEquipment / Activity Type
PE: 0603286#
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DoD Program
Budget Activity
Serial Number
A series of numbers…in orderEquipment / Activity Type
Nomenclature
Service / Agency
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PE: 0603286E – Advanced Aerospace Systems
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R-1 & R-2 Familiarization
PE / BLI Program Element / Budget Line Item (BLI) Title
Include
in
TOA
FY 2015
(Base &
OCO)
FY 2016
Base
Enacted
FY 2016
OCO
Enacted
FY 2016
Total
Enacted
FY 2017
Base
FY 2017
OCO
FY 2017
Total Classification
0603286E Advanced Aerospace Systems Y 123,292 173,631 0 173,631 182,327 0 182,327 U
0603287E Space Programs and Technology Y 172,504 126,692 0 126,692 175,240 0 175,240 U
0603739E Advanced Electronics Technologies Y 81,119 76,021 0 76,021 49,807 0 49,807 U
0603760E Command, Control and Communications Systems Y 229,945 201,335 0 201,335 155,081 0 155,081 U
0603766E Network-Centric Warfare Technology Y 350,323 425,861 0 425,861 428,894 0 428,894 U
0603767E Sensor Technology Y 283,905 240,127 0 240,127 241,288 0 241,288 U
PE: 0603286E – Advanced Aerospace Systems – FY17 Total $182,327,000
PE: 0603286E – Advanced Aerospace Systems – FY17 Total $182,327,000
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PB13
PB14
PB15
PB16
PB17
Use-Case
16
FY 2017
15.839
FY 2017
20.539
FY 2017
20.555
FY 2017
20.466
FY 2017
25.466
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Data Extraction
R-1
• Budget information for all RDT&E programs undertaken bythe branches of the DoD
• Lists the budget for the previous two fiscal years, as well asthe budget for the current fiscal year
R-1 Example
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Data Extraction
R-2
• Specific to each program, identified by a “program element”(PE) number in the R-1
• Item justification for each program, as the proposed budgetfor the next four fiscal years is listed
R-2 Example (XML format)
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Object Oriented Architecture
19
v.18.4
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CV – 3 Capability Phasing
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OV – 1 Operational Concept
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BEAT
User
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BEAT Requirements
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Level 0
Level 2
Level 1
M.R.1 The BEAT System shall store no less than 5 years of RDT&E budget exhibit documents when data is available
M.R.2 The BEAT System shall visualize RDT&E budget data over time
S.R.1 The BEAT System shall generate R1 budget trend data by program element for budget activities 2, 3, 4
S.R.2 The BEAT System shall generate R2 budget trend data by program element for budget activities 2, 3, 4
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DIV – 1 Data Model
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OV – 5b Operational Activity Model
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USERBEAT
R1BatchJob R2BatchJob ExcelGeneratorJob
Database ExcelVisualizationToolBatchApplication
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BEAT: R-1 Data
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BEAT: R-1 Data
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Year of Presidential Budget
$M
illio
ns
$M
illio
ns
Year of Presidential Budget
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BEAT: R-2 User Input Form
27
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BEAT: R-2 Output
28
LCS Mission Modules
increasing funding requests over
time
Littoral Combat Ship (LCS)
decreasing funding requests
over time
250
200
150
100
50
0
$M
illio
ns
500
400
300
200
100
0
$M
illio
ns
PB14 PB15 PB16 PB17
PB12 PB13 PB14 PB15 PB16 PB17
(U)LCS Mission Modules
Littoral Combat Ship (LCS)
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Future Work
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BA 3
BA 2
BA 4
PB12 PB13 PB14 PB15 PB16 PB17
250
200
150
100
50
0
$M
illio
ns
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
$M
illio
ns
PB12 PB13 PB14 PB15 PB16 PB17
Marines
USAF
Select Air Force PE’s across BA 2-4• Track & Identify PE’s as they transition to
new Budget Activities
• Compare PE’s funding profiles at BA
• Compare PE’s length of time at BA
F-35 Eng. & Manuf. Development• Track joint programs’ funding levels over
time
• Identify funding profiles of like programs
• Identify opportunities across services
and/or agencies
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Future Work
Program Elements are just the top layer
• Multiple projects make up a PEo Multiple accomplishments make up a project
Example:
PE: 0603286E / Advanced Aerospace Systems
• Project: AIR-01 / Advanced Aerospace Systemso Accomplishments: Tactically Exploited Reconnaissance Node (TERN) Collaborative Operations in Denied Environments (CODE) Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept (HAWC) Tactical Boost Glide Advanced Aerospace System Concepts Technology for Enriching and Augmenting Manned-Unmanned Systems Vertical Take-off and Landing (VTOL) Technology Demonstrator Distributed Fires Advanced Full Range Engine (AFRE)
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Road Map
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Decision Management System• Begin with the Decision in Mind• Transparent & Agile• Predictive• Test, learn, continuous improvement
FYDP DataLends itself to data analytics because:• Abundance of training data• Structured• Released annually PB17
Program/Project/Accomplishment Data• Projects, Accomplishment, and Plans
and Plans data fields are verbose• E.g. NLP, Support Vector Machine, K-
Nearest Neighbors
Mile
1.0
Mile
5.0
Mile
20
Mile
10
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Conclusion
Accomplishments
• Upload R-1 / R-2 budget exhibits to a centralized repository
• Export transformed data into MS Excel Application
• Support the identification of trends in a Program Elemento Historical (R-1)o Future (R-2)
• Users will have a drastic reduction in the time fromcompilation to analysiso SPA estimates the manual process would take 2 weeks
32
The BEAT Systems is able to present usable data within
MINUTES
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Thank You
• Systems Planning and Analysis, Inc. – Slider Griese &Brandon Davis, Client
• SEOR Faculty – Dr. Hoffman, Dr. Loerch, Dr. Costa, Dr. Zaidi,& Dr. Huang
• OR / SYST 699 Students
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Questions?
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Acronyms
35
Acronym Definition Acronym Definition Acronym Definition
BA Budget Activity MILCON Military Construction RDT&EResearch, Development, Test, and Engineering
BEATBudget Exhibit Analysis Tool
MILPER Military Personnel SPASystems Planning and Analysis, Inc.
COICommunities of Interest
O&MOperations & Maintenance
UARCUniversity Affiliated Research Center
DoDDepartment of Defense
OSDOffice of the Secretary of Defense
USA United States Army
DoNDepartment of the Navy
PB President's Budget USAFUnited States Air Force
FFRDCFederally Funded Research & Development Centers
PE Program Element USMCUnited States Marine Corps
FY Fiscal Year PROC Procurement USN United States Navy
FYDPFuture Years Defense Program
R&DResearch and Development
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References
[1] - Rugy, Veronique de. 2013. High Levels of Government Spending Become Status Quo. Fairfax: Mercatus Center
[2] - American Association for the Advancement of Science 2016
[3] - Govini. No Date. "US Department of Defense Third Offset Standard Market Taxonomy." Analyst Report, Washington, D.C.
[4] - http://www.acqnotes.com/acqnote/acquisitions/rdte-programs-budget-exhibit
[5] – Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC) –www.dtic.mil
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Back-up
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Context Diagram
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Deliverables
• Java Source Code
• MySQL database export
• Excel templates and completed data sheets
• Final Presentation and Report
• User Manual
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CV – 2 Capability Taxonomy
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CV – 4 Capability Dependencies
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Program Management (WBS)
42
Analysis
Design
Implementation
V&V
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Context
MySQL is a popular open-source database used by many developers;
however, since it is open source it has its limitations. If any of these
limitations become a road block during the course of the project, a
new type of database may be needed
43
Current Status (09/16/2016)
Database is being installed, and configured
SPA-01 MySQL Database Unusable
Risk Statement
IF it is determined that MySQL is not usable for this project,
THEN a new database will need to be installed and built
Risk Owner: Said Masoud Schedule Risk: 15 (5 X 3)
Mitigation Strategy
Switch to PostgreSQL database and load data using batch application
into database
Mitigation Plan
Risk: 1 09/16/2016
Plan ID Owner Title Score Date
SPA-01-01 Said Download/Install PostgreSQL 5x3 9/23/16
SPA-01-02 Said Build databases and tables 3x2 9/27/16
SPA-01-03 Said Load data 3x1 10//2/16
SPA-01-04 Said Retune analysis queries 2x1 10/9/16
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Risks
September October November Dec.Risk ID Title W02 W03 W04 W05 W06 W07 W08 W09 W10 W11 W12 W13 W14 Risk Owner
SPA-01 MySQL Database Unusable 5x3 3x3 3x1 2x1 Said
SPA-02Customer Does not Approve plan in the design
stage5x4 3x4 2x3 1x3 Jhonnattan
SPA-03Customer Does not Approve prototype in the
Implementation stage5x5 4x3 3x2 1x2 Jhonnattan
SPA-04
SPA-05
SPA-06
SPA-07
SPA-08
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Methodology
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