SYSTEMPERSPEKTIV 2035 • Power price more fluctuating and especially in GCA low power prices...

SYSTEMPERSPEKTIV 2035 - Analyse af lagring i energisystemet Møde i ATV ved DTU 2018-03-21

2018-02-21 Systemperspektiv 2035 1

Anders Bavnhøj Hansen, [email protected] Chefingeniør Energinet

STRUCTURE

2018-03-21 Systemperspective 2035 2

Part 1: International Energy Scenarios

Part 2: System Perspectives for Denmark

Part 4: Research, Development, Demonstration and Innovation (R&I)

Part 3: Positive interaction between central and distributed

solutions

3 EUROPEAN ENERGY SCENARIOS


Content of the 3 European TYNDP 2018-scenarios

GCA-scenario (Global Climate Action)

• "On track" with EU climate targets

• Strong international, green cooperation and regulation

• Moderate oil price – very high CO2-price (IEA 450 PPM)

• 50 pct. electricity from wind and sun in Europe in 2040

DG-scenario (Distributed Generation)

• “(On track)" with EU climate targets

• A very high use of distributed solutions (solar/batteries)

• High oil price (IEA New Policy) – high CO2-price


ST-scenario (Sustainable Transition)

• “Not on track (but almost)" with EU climate targets

• Low oil and natural gas prices

• Moderate CO2-price(IEA Low Oil price scenario)

3 EUROPEAN ENERGY SCENARIOS Content of the 3 European TYNDP 2018-scenarios

GCA-scenario (Global Climate Action)


• Strong international, green cooperation and regulation

• Moderate oil price – very high CO2-price (IEA 450 PPM)


DG-scenario (Distributed Generation)


• Wide spread local distributed solutions (solar/batteries)

• High oil price (IEA New Policy) – high CO2-price


ST-scenario (Sustainable Transition)

• "Almost on track" with EU climate targets

• Low oil and natural gas prices

• Moderate CO2-price(IEA Low Oil price scenario)


Green Methanol today

Methanol today

MUCH MORE WIND & SOLAR POWER IN ALL SCENARIOS


12% 15% 17% 17% 19% 22%3%

6%8% 7%

10%13%

4%

8%10%

19% 14%

18%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2020* ST30 ST35 DG35 GCA35 GCA40

Sol (PV)

Havvind

Landvind

Vind og sol. Andel af elforbrug (Europa)

15%20% 21% 20% 21% 22%

8%

19%24% 22%

26%32%

6%

10%

11% 17%15%

19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2020* ST30 ST35 DG35 GCA35 GCA40

Sol (PV)

Havvind

Landvind

Vind og sol. Andel af elforbrug (DE, UK, NL, DK)Wind & Solar power. Share of consumption (Europe) Wind & Solar power. Share of consumption (DE, UK, NL, DK)

Onshore WInd

Offshore WInd

Solar (PV)

Onshore WInd

Offshore WInd

Solar (PV)

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NORDSØ-REGIONEN


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2016 ST 2030 ST 2040 GCA 2040

RE

cap

acit

y (G

W)

Vind/sol kapacitet i Nordsø-region (DE,NL,GB,DK)

Wind land Wind offs Solar

0

500

1 000

1 500

2016 GCARE

cap

acit

y (G

W)

Vind/sol kapacitet i Europa

Wind land Wind offs Solar

Produktion højere end forbrug

• Behov for time/døgn lagring af fluktuationer

• Behov for systembærende egenskaber så termisk kan nedreguleres

• Behov for integration af el i andre sektorer i perioder med høj vind/sol

-200.000

-150.000

-100.000

-50.000

0

50.000

100.000

0 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000

El-effekt (MW)

Time

Vind/sol produktion minus elforbrug (DE,NL,GB,DK) i GCA 2040

Residual Residual sorteret Residual inkl. Must run sorteret

SOLUTIONS FOR EFFICIENT INTEGRATION OF +50 PCT. WIND/SOLAR


Over distance: Power Grid Expansion

1. (Further) integration with Nordic hydro

2. Integration between Western and Eastern Europe

Over time: Power-to-Power Storage

3. Eg. Battery, CAES, Fly Wheels, Pumped Hydro

4. Power-to-Heat and Thermal Storage

5. Power for Transport

6. Power for high value Products (Electrolysis / PtG / PtX)

Conversion of power for other purposes - electrification

Power-integration – Power as final energy service

Norway

PtX

PtH

PtH

PtX


SOLUTIONS TO INCREASE VALUE OF WIND/SOLAR


0

500

1.000

1.500

1 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001

DKK/MWh DK1 duration curves ST 2030 og GCA 2040

Interconnectorer x 2 P2G 50 Euro/MWh afbrud

Batteri lager x 10 GCA Reference

ST2030

• Power price more fluctuating and especially in GCA low power prices identified

• Solutions with sector-coupling, ICL and battery storage analysed

ST2030 GCA2040

100 Euro/MWh

POWER-TO-GAS IN A EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE


Wind and Sun in Western Europe keeps power prices lower in the whole region

North Sea region in focus for PtG/PtX

Nomenclature: Average price (DKK/MWh)

Nomenclature: RE-share

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SECTOR COUPLING TO GET ACCESS TO LOW COST STORAGE CAPACITY

10

Power system

Gas System Gas

Storage (NG/SNG)

District Heating System Heat storage

2018-03-21 Systemperspective 2035

0100200300400500600700

Invest.omk. energidel

(DKK/kWh)

Investment cost energy storage part (excl input/output units) Battery

Gas Storage

(H2)

• Battery storage is essential for hourly balancing – but too expensive for large scale storage

• Sector coupling to gas and heat can deliver more cost effective large scale storage

• Essential to analyse cost effective sector couplings!

“For all the growth in battery installations that BNEF is forecasting, the total volume of grid-connected batteries by 2030 will be sufficient to meet the world’s power needs for just 7,5 minutes” Michael Liebreich, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, March, 2018

Sector coupling


DENMARK – SYSTEM ANALYSIS 2035



ANALYSIS OF SYSTEM INTEGRATION

Type 0: Local Prosumer Building with PV, Battery, EV, (heat pump)

Type 1: Decentralised DH-plant

Heat pump + Gas-CHP + Gas-boiler (peak) + heat storage

Type 2 : Decentralised energy plant (biogas with PtG/PtX)

Biogas + Gas-CHP + PtG (electrolysis) + Heat pump + Fuel catalysis (SNG/MeOH) + storage facilities

Type 3: Large central plant with PtG/PtX

Thermal gasification + PtG + Fuel catalysis (PtX)+ Heat pump + storage


Biogas potential pr. community

District heating demand

http://www.google.dk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=imgres&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiG09rOqKPSAhXL1xQKHdrVD3IQjRwIBw&url=http://www.sansforsamsoe.dk/biogasanlaeg-paa-samsoe-og-et-jobopslag/&psig=AFQjCNGN12Lk-h6y3AecDeAoLrZrw5wz4Q&ust=1487839613543441

http://www.google.dk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjL8uym7q_SAhXFKiwKHRgLAVkQjRwIBw&url=http://sydjysk-solenergi.dk/Hjem/Privat/privat_Oe-drift.html&psig=AFQjCNFm1msnvJZxFoAt4p-TOUorVSX-KQ&ust=1488270614821340


SYSTEM MODELLERING (REDUCED)


Energy plants simulated in grid areas

Central Energy Plant Industry/service Local Prosumer

Distributed biogas based Energy Plant Distributed DH-plant


SIMULATION OF SYSTEM AND LEAST COST ANALYSIS

14

Power transmission (>100 kV)

Water Shift

Power-to-gas

RE-fuel katalysis

High temp.

Bio-2-gas (thermal)

H2

Wood chips

(NH3 etc.)

Wood waste

Slurry

Bio-waste

Straw etc.

Gas net with NG/SNG (evt. NatHy)

Biogas enhed Anaerob

Gas motor

Power-to-gas

MeOH katalyse

Large energy plant (3 )

C-N-P-K

Decentralised energy plant(2)

Biogas

O2

O2

Solar (PV) Large scale

Industry/service prosumer Lille prosumer bolig el. service

Solar (PV) Solar (PV)

EV

Heat pump Battery Heatpump

Gas-boiler

ETES

LNG

LNG

LNG plant

Windpower onshore

Gas/Power-to-Liquid

Heat

Decentralised district heating plant (1)

Heat-pump

Gas CHP

Gas boiler

Windpower offshore

H2

SNG katalyse

H2

Syngas

Syngas

D,NL,UK, N,S

D, S, N, PL

H2

Gas storage

Gas turbine + Gas boiler

Steam turbine

District/block heating Heat Storage

Heat


G2L Varme-lager

Varmelager

Varme

Bat-tery


CASE SIMULATION OPTIMIZED PLANT GCA


Water Shift

Power-to-gas

RE-fuel katalysis

Højtemp.

Bio-2-gas (thermal)

H2

Wood chips

Large Energyplant (3 )

O2

O2

Solar (PV) Large Scale

ETES

Windpower onshore

Windpower offshore

H2

Syngas

Syngas

H2 storage

Gas turbine + Gas boiler

Steam-turbine

Power System

Gas grid (NG/SNG)

Gas storage

District- and block heat Heat Storage Power price

VE fuel lager

RE-fuel market

-1600

0

1600

3200

4800

6400

8000

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

27/4 28/4 29/4 30/4 1/5 2/5 3/5 4/5

Price (EUR/MWh)

Power (MW)

Simulated operation of plant

150 MW solar park (PV) 850 MW offshore wind farm

140/140 MW energy plant (type 3) DK1 electricity price (EUR/MWh)

Price

Power

LOCAL PROSUMERS – INVESTMENT ANALYSIS


0 – 12 kW

Local point (AC)

Inverter PV

Solar (PV)

PV Point (DC)

Battery

0,4 kV feeder

Electric vehicle

DK1

Micro-CHP

RE-gas

25 A

House consum.

Heat pump

Local prosumer

TSO DSO

http://www.google.dk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjTo5fI1PnRAhUGGZoKHb5rBkMQjRwIBw&url=http://kuafu.dk/produkter/solcelle-anlaeg/&psig=AFQjCNHbqZxEusN5PkiIxoIx8E63wgl3xw&ust=1486408267304929






ANALYSIS OF INVESTEMENT IN DISTRIBUTED PRODUCTION


17

H.1 H.2 H.3 H.4 H.5 H.6 H.7 H.8 H.9 H.10

Annual consumption

Classic consumption (MWh)

4.7 3.1 3.1 4.1 4.4 4.8 5.00 5.3 5.6 5.6

Annual consumption EV (MWh) 5.2 0 7.0 5.2 5.2 5.2 3.0 3.0 5.2 5.2

Battery size EV (kWh) 80 0 80 80 80 80 40 80 40 80

PV (kW) 12,0 5,1 12,0 12,0 12,0 12,0 11,7 11,1 12,0 12,0

Battery size local storage (kWh) 23,3 9,2 25,9 24,1 23,9 24,9 12,9 11,2 12,9 13,8

• Investering i distribueret produktion og lagring (solceller og batterier) analyseret

•Typical investment in up to 12 kW PV and 15-25 kWh battery

•Offgrid seems not to economical realistic, even with further reduced prices on batteries and PV







OPERATION OF SMALL PROSUMERS IN CASE

Systemperspective 2035

18

02004006008001000

05

10152025

18/06 kl:04 18/06 kl:14

Electricity price

(DKK/MWh)

El (kW) / [Batteriy level

in kWh]

PV el-produktion Batteri niveau

Pris DK Pris lokal

•Large excess of power during summer

•”Storage” from power-system approx. 4 MWh

•”Storage” during winther approx. 1-1,5 MWh

• Bottlenecks in grid might appear in hours with high PV production or simultaneos EV-charging

• A need for TSO/DSO SmartGrid to handle bottlenecks

2018-03-21

-1.000

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

14

63

92

51

38

71

84

92

31

12

77

33

23

53

69

74

15

94

62

15

08

35

54

56

00

76

46

96

93

17

39

37

85

58

31

7

Electricity accumulated

(kWh)

Electricity (kW)

Prosumer electricity production and interaction with grid

PV Grid import Accumulated grid


STORAGE SIMULATION AND CAPACITY


-2.500

-1.500

-500

500

1.500

2.500

-15.000

-10.000

-5.000

0

5.000

10.000

14

88

97

51

46

21

94

92

43

62

92

33

41

03

89

74

38

44

87

15

35

85

84

56

33

26

81

97

30

67

79

38

28

0

Accumulated (GWh)

Electric power (MW)

Hour

Electric exchange DK with foreign countries GCA2035

Total exchange (MW) Accum. Exchange (GWh)

-2.500

-1.500

-500

500

1.500

2.500

-15.000

-10.000

-5.000

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

144

087

91

318

17

572

196

26

353

074

35

133

952

43

914

830

52

695

708

61

476

586

70

257

464

79

038

342

Accumulated (GWh)

Electric power (MW)

Time

Electric exchange DK with foreign countries GCA 2050

Total exchange (MW) Accum. Exchange (GWh)

Gas storages (electric input for Power-to-gas)

Interconnectors typical utilisation case 2035

2,7 TWh yearly accumulated

Potential Small H2 cavern

Indiv. HP

Potential longer term heat storages

A potential large cavern

with H2

EV

Prosumer batteries

DH system

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

RE-gas

Electricic ICs

Battery prosumer

Electric vehicles

District heating

Individual HP

Electric capacity uptake (GW)

Capacity (power)

Capacity (Energy) case 2035

2018-03-21 19

https://www.google.dk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiVhbbK4u_VAhXGB5oKHcRLDqoQjRwIBw&url=https://www.tv2nord.dk/artikel/gaslager-miljogodkendt&psig=AFQjCNHlptow5C7eyCwv7dB0SevZdVmiaQ&ust=1503660646206529

ELECTRICITY BALANCE IN ANALYSED SCENARIOS


20

0

50.000

100.000

2020 AF 2035 STexcl.

PtG/PtX

2035 ST 2035 DG 2035 GCA 2050 ST 2050 DG 2050 GCA

Electricity (GWh)

Electricity production in analysed scenarios

Wind power Solar Electricity prod, RE-gas/biofuel

Electricity prod, biomass Electricity prod, waste Electricity prod, gas

Electricity prod, oil Electricity prod, coal Import

0

50.000

100.000

2020 AF 2035 ST excl.PtG/PtX

2035 ST 2035 DG 2035 GCA 2050 ST 2050 DG 2050 GCA

Electricity (GWh)

Electricity consumption in analysed scenarios

Classical consumption, incl. data centres PtG/PtX

Heat (DH, process, individual) Transport (road, rail, sea, air)

GCA 2035 – SIMULATED ANNUAL ENERGY FLOW


21

District heating and block heating

Wind-power

Natural Gas

Fossil Oil

Coal

Power System

Liquid fuels fossil/RE (Gasoline, Diesel, Methanol, DME etc.)

Thermal Gasification

Anaerob Gasification

Eksport electricity

El-proces light, it, cool.

Process- heat

Building heating

Road transport

Railway Transport

Maritime

Aviation

Gas Storage

Heat Pump

Boiler

EV/PHEV

ICE/FC

Fuel Storage

Import electricity

Gas-systemer (metan/syntesegas/H2)

Power-to- Gas

Large Heat Pumps

Gas CHP

Solar (PV)

HT-Heat P

Bio, waste etc.

Bio CHP/boiler

Gas- katalysis etc.

Methanisation

GCA 2050 – SIMULATED ANNUAL ENERGY FLOW

Dok. 17/01970-47

22

District heating and block heating

Wind- Power

Natural Gas

Fossil Oil

Coal

Power System

Liquid fuels fossil/RE (Gasoline, Diesel, Methanol, DME, etc.)

Thermal gasification

Anaerob Gasification

Export electricity

El-proces light, it, cool

Proces Heat

Building heating

Road Transport

Railway Transport

Maritime

Aviation

Gas Storage

Varmep.

Kedel

EV/PHEV

FM/FC

Fuel Storage

Import electricity

Gas-systems (methan/syntesisgas/H2)

Power-to- Gas

Large Heat Pumps

Gas CHP

Solar (PV)

HT-VP.

Bio, waste etc.

Bio CHP/Boiler

Gas- katalysis etc.

Methanisation


SUMMING UP


European Agenda sets a framework

• Ambitios plans in EU for reduction of climate gases towards 2050 setplan

• Huge wind-ressources in North Sea region essential for EU 2050 setplan

• ENTSO-E/G show significant increase of wind/solar in NS-region in al scenarios More than 50% RE => Need for sector coupling

Electrification and sector coupling essential

• A strong power-grid is needed

• Sector coupling to gas, heat, fuel and transport sector essential for integration

• Large scale solutions (offshore wind, strong grid, PtG/PtX) can be combined with small prosumers (PV, battery)

Position of strenghs for Denmark

• Competitive RE-power prices

• Gas-system and biogas (carbon) ressources

• Potential for gas storage in salt caverns (incl. H2)

• District heating (value of PtX excess proces heat)

• Knowledge on biomass processing and handling (carbon source)

R&D&I international/national

A need for R&I to get a full mature technology in sector integration and storage technologies

• Thermal (incl. High temp)

• PtG/PtX with chemical storage

• Batteries”everywhere” in system and know-ledge on battery optimised system operation

THANK YOU FOR THE ATTENTION

http://www.energinet.dk/sys35

SYSTEMPERSPEKTIV 2035 • Power price more fluctuating and especially in GCA low power prices...

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