system design & management - MIT SDMsdm.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/smallerslides.pdf ·...
Transcript of system design & management - MIT SDMsdm.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/smallerslides.pdf ·...
Introduction
2 © 2016 Burl Amsbury
Electrical Eng’g, Control Systems
1999
U.S. Navy pilot
10 patents
1 patent
Business consultant for food, ag, functional med. good-again.com
Innovative grass fed organic cattle company.
Systems Thinking is Natural
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…of the painful unintended consequences caused by linear thinking.
Systems Thinking is Natural
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It even shows up outside of academia and big business.
Regenerative Ranching
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“Regenerative” because it improves ecological health metrics like wildlife diversity, water retention, and carbon sequestration.
Functional Medicine
9
“Functional” because it optimizes functionality – vitality – rather than targeting the mere absence of disease.
Fun Fact #1
10 © 2016 Burl Amsbury
In both industries, the most important predictor of success is a healthy microbiome (soil or gut).
Other Common Themes
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Relatively small, fast-growth niches in troubled behemoth industries. Still...~$1B growing at ~20%.
1
94
U.S. Beef Sales ($billion)
Grass Fed Conventional
Other Common Themes
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Medium- to long-term thinking is required. There are few quick fixes.
Other Common Themes
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Resistance to change is a powerful counter-force. Change leadership is key.
Gleicher’s Formula
Regenerative Ranching Principles
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• It’s the interactions among land, people, livestock, wildlife, water, weather, and economic forces (“agents”) that determine systemic behavior.
Regenerative Ranching Principles
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• It’s the interactions among land, people, livestock, wildlife, water, weather, and economic forces (“agents”) that determine systemic behavior.
• Nature works because it’s complex, not simple. Mimic and learn from nature. Embrace complexity.
Regenerative Ranching Principles
18 © 2016 Burl Amsbury
• It’s the interactions among land, people, livestock, wildlife, water, weather, and economic forces (“agents”) that determine systemic behavior.
• Nature works because it’s complex, not simple. Mimic and learn from nature. Embrace complexity.
• The difference between beneficial and harmful animal impact depends more on timing than headcount (think cyclic, intense pulsing vice chronic low-level presence).
Regenerative Ranching Principles
19 © 2016 Burl Amsbury
• It’s the interactions among land, people, livestock, wildlife, water, weather, and economic forces (“agents”) that determine systemic behavior.
• Nature works because it’s complex, not simple. Mimic and learn from nature. Embrace complexity.
• The difference between beneficial and harmful animal impact depends more on timing than headcount (think cyclic, intense pulsing vice chronic low-level presence).
• Choose metrics for success wisely; consider context.
Regenerative Ranching Principles
20 © 2016 Burl Amsbury
• It’s the interactions among land, people, livestock, wildlife, water, weather, and economic forces (“agents”) that determine systemic behavior.
• Nature works because it’s complex, not simple. Mimic and learn from nature. Embrace complexity.
• The difference between beneficial and harmful animal impact depends more on timing than headcount (think cyclic, intense pulsing vice chronic low-level presence).
• Choose metrics for success wisely; consider context. • Embrace human creativity; do not over-control.
Regenerative Ranching Principles
21 © 2016 Burl Amsbury
• It’s the interactions among land, people, livestock, wildlife, water, weather, and economic forces (“agents”) that determine systemic behavior.
• Nature works because it’s complex, not simple. Mimic and learn from nature. Embrace complexity.
• The difference between beneficial and harmful animal impact depends more on timing than headcount (think cyclic, intense pulsing vice chronic low-level presence).
• Choose metrics for success wisely; consider context. • Embrace human creativity; do not over-control. • Make data-based decisions whenever possible – intuition is
tricky.
Functional Medicine Principles
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• Practice evidence-based medicine; de-emphasize intuition and reductionist logic.
Functional Medicine Principles
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• Practice evidence-based medicine; de-emphasize intuition and reductionist logic.
• Small differences in genetics (“elements”) and environmental factors (“context”) of two similar humans (“systems”) can cause divergent systemic behaviors.
Functional Medicine Principles
25 © 2016 Burl Amsbury
• Practice evidence-based medicine; de-emphasize intuition and reductionist logic.
• Small differences in genetics (“elements”) and environmental factors (“context”) of two similar humans (“systems”) can cause divergent systemic behaviors.
• Understand the system to understand the symptoms.
Functional Medicine Principles
26 © 2016 Burl Amsbury
• Practice evidence-based medicine; de-emphasize intuition and reductionist logic.
• Small differences in genetics (“elements”) and environmental factors (“context”) of two similar humans (“systems”) can cause divergent systemic behaviors.
• Understand the system to understand the symptoms. • Root causes are an interaction amongst genetic
predispositions and environmental conditions. (Enough with the nature vs. nurture debate!)
Functional Medicine Principles
27 © 2016 Burl Amsbury
• Practice evidence-based medicine; de-emphasize intuition and reductionist logic.
• Small differences in genetics (“elements”) and environmental factors (“context”) of two similar humans (“systems”) can cause divergent systemic behaviors.
• Understand the system to understand the symptoms. • Root causes are an interaction amongst genetic
predispositions and environmental conditions. (Enough with the nature vs. nurture debate!)
• Human subsystems have web-like interconnections – they are a causal mess.
Functional Medicine Principles
28 © 2016 Burl Amsbury
• Practice evidence-based medicine; de-emphasize intuition and reductionist logic.
• Small differences in genetics (“elements”) and environmental factors (“context”) of two similar humans (“systems”) can cause divergent systemic behaviors.
• Understand the system to understand the symptoms. • Root causes are an interaction amongst genetic
predispositions and environmental conditions. (Enough with the nature vs. nurture debate!)
• Human subsystems have web-like interconnections – they are a causal mess.
• Choose success metrics wisely and in consultation with the patient (the system itself).
Systems Thinking by Any Other Name…
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Regenerative Ranching’s “Holistic Management” arose because • Calories as a metric leads to poor
health. • Manufacturing mindset leads to high
risk, low margins, and… • Pollution. Animal waste and fertilizer became two separate pollution and PR problems.
Systems Thinking by Any Other Name…
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Functional Medicine or “Integrative Medicine” arose because • Lifespan as a metric leads to poor
health. • Disease is a symptom of systemic
and environmental dysfunction. • Conventional disease treatment lags
scientific advancements in systemic biology.
U.S. #34 in lifespan, #1 in cost.
Systems Thinking by Any Other Name…
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History’s “Big History” arose, perhaps, because • “The first lesson of history is that we
do not learn from it.” –J. Rufus Fears Big History puts humankind in the context of a much larger story, looking for patterns and themes, acknowledging that written records are subjective, and embracing Internet-based multimedia.
Systems Thinking by Any Other Name…
33 © 2016 Burl Amsbury
Military aviation’s “OODA Loop” Observe-Orient-Decide-Act arose because • In the Korean War, MiG-15s were
superior in every way to U.S. F-86 aircraft.
Nevertheless, we managed a 10:1 kill ratio. The OODA loop centers on Orientation, which is the agile adaptation of one’s mental model.
Systems Thinking by Any Other Name…
34 © 2016 Burl Amsbury
Systems Thinking gets repeatedly invented anew because it’s what works when solutions based on linear approximations of reality go haywire. So…why wait for the painful unintended haywire and chaos?
Prevent the Tragedy of the Commons
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A shared resource, properly cared for, reward$ good behavior in the medium- to long-term, but not the short-term.
Prevent the Tragedy of the Commons
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Identify your shared resources and contribute to their improvement.
Prevent the Tragedy of the Commons
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Examples: • Soil microbiome • Internet bandwidth • Mutual trust • Insurance pool
Choose Holistic Metrics
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Good ones – healthspan, soil health, nutrition, Bhutan’s GNH – may be hard to quantify and articulate.
Choose Holistic Metrics
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Better to get a good holistic metric 85% right than a reductionist half-blind metric 100% right. Good metrics evolve.
Understand the Larger System
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Step back and stare. Be curious. Look for the causal loops. Look for multiple reasons.
Understand the Larger System
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Manage by nudging; do not over-control. Listen. Observe. Be deliberate. Be pro-active. Adjust your mental model continuously.
© 2016 Burl Amsbury 42
Understand the Larger System
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Operationalize your process for understanding a system before you operationalize your process for managing it.
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Sustainable ≠ Stable
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The context in which your organization operates will change…so your organization must change at the right pace to last.
Industry Life Cycle
Sustainable ≠ Stable
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Example: As grass fed beef industry shifts from Introduction to Growth, profit margins will shrink and sellers’ power will diminish è Scale-up now is imperative; quality must become reliable…and beef has a 3-year production cycle.
Industry Life Cycle
Sustainable ≠ Stable
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Establish & nurture relationships with those who share your values and resources. This is your tribe…a shared resource in itself.
Industry Life Cycle
Sustainable = Resilience + Adaptivity
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Embrace diversity…of people, ideas, endeavors. Do not hire in your own image; but do hire from your tribe.
Sustainable = Resilience + Adaptivity
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Engineer modularity into your structure. Build Goldilocks connectivity – not too independent; not too interdependent. Think business units and franchises. Think of decentralization.
Sustainable = Resilience + Adaptivity
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Create redundancy. Beyond multiple suppliers and customers, consider resources serving more than one purpose and purposes served by more than one resource. E.g. “flerds” and cross-training.
Sustainable = Resilience + Adaptivity
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Build a learning organization. You’ve heard this before (The Fifth Discipline, Peter Senge).
Sustainable = Resilience + Adaptivity
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Question your paradigms. Especially the big ones. Have courage. Grass fed?...Beef?
Sustainable = Resilience + Adaptivity
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All interesting questions have the same first answer: “It depends.” On what? Do not be drawn into the tyranny of “or.” Look for the “and.” (Built to Last, Jim Collins) Especially when responding to the voices in your head.