System Analysis, Foresees and Management of E-Services Impacts on Informational Societies

e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April

SYSTEM ANALYSIS,

FORESEES

AND MANAGEMENT OF

E-SERVICES IMPACTS ON

INFORMATIONAL SOCIETIES

Professor Alexander MAKARENKO

Institute for Applied System Analysis at National Technical University of Ukraine (KPI),

[email protected]


General problems of interrelations of society and e- servises are considered.

The system analysis of informational aspects of

society is proposed which are important for development of informational technologies (IT).

New concept for considering and modeling the society, e- servises and informational technologies are described.

The problems of society and large cities are considered as the examples for application of concepts and the problems of e- servises development.

The challenges and dangers of introducing of new information technologies are discussed.


1. Introduction

Recent ideas:information society (IS), knowledge- based society, post- industrial society etc.

Informational technologies (IT) for IS – e- services: e- governance, e- learning, e- health, e- business, e- security, e- cartography.

Because of very fast growth of IT and e- services the practical realizations of projects and infrastructure development usually forestall the detailed theoretical investigations and foresees of future state of IT and IS.

We propose considerations on the interaction of IT and society, the possible role of e- services in society transformation, the searching of optimal way for e- services development, possible profits and dangers during such development.


2. Some general considerations

First of all we should stress that informational technologies in developed society are not only technical object but socio- technical phenomena that is part of the society with self- influence on the society.

So the considering of IT and IS phenomena requires accounting of social aspects. Useful tools for such accounting are supplied by system analysis, cybernetics, synergetic.


The issues from system analysis:

holism (that is considering the system as the whole) hierarchical levels in the system complexity of the system emergent of new properties evolutionary nature of the systems different space and time scales in the systems complex interaction between elements mentality accounting in analysis the goals, laws of evolution of the systems influence of environment stability and sustainable development different scenarios of development risks and dangers for system leverage points and bifurcations


The experience in system analysis allows to remark that the understanding of large complex systems is impossible without using mathematical models, simulation and optimization methods.

Other necessary issues are costs, profits and damages.

For better understanding of IT&IS it is also desirable philosophical understanding of the society nature, human nature (especially mentality), society culture, behavior, social psychology, ecology, medicine, laws.

Different practical consequences from the analysis may be derived: foresees, strategic planning, current management in dependence of the time and space volume of the process. One of the important goals may be democratic transformation of society.

Of course different approaches and investigations have been proposed by many researchers and businessman earlier. We only remember cellular automate, multi – agent systems, system dynamics, imitational games etc.

But the accelerating of changes follows to the conclusion that the new approaches should be developed.


3. Associative memory approach to large socio- technical systems (Makarenko, 1998, 2001)

‘Patterns’

The ‘pattern’ is the collection of elements and bonds between them at any moment of time.

Such description is useful as for environment as for the mental structures of individuals (or agents in the models).

Such ‘geometrical’ description may be transformed in pure ‘logical’ or sometimes ‘linguistic’ description


Firstly in complex system dynamic there exist some global structures (for example formations or civilisations).

The socio-technical system as the rule change in the frame of such structures.

Secondly, alternation in elements state

frequently is determined by the influence of some environment. This can be described by some mean field approach .

There are many interrelations between the elements of complex systems (and not only in social but also in natural systems).


There are many sub-processes in such system – communicational, political, social, cultural and so on.

The system can go from one global structure to another by two

ways: evolutionary or by revolution.

Revolution can be described by fast rupture of bonds and may be unpredictable.

Evolutionary way is long and demands patience.

Yet on such global level there are phenomena of life- cycle type.

For example, the change of social formation may be considered as the change of "patterns" in such models.

Branch of industry may be considered as union of producers, consumers and mediators.

These relations have the same properties as the subjects of global model:

The bonds are build evolutionary, all structure of industry branch is rather stable,


Anticipatory property for social systems and scenarios

Now it became known that one of very interesting for understanding the society property is anticipating.

The main essential new property is the possibility of multi-valued solution (that is many values of solution for some moments of time and initial conditions). This may be interpreted as the possibility of many scenarios of development for real social systems.

The second key issue is connected to property that the real social system has single realization of historical way (trajectory). So the social system as the whole makes the choice of the own trajectory at any moment of time.


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SOME APPLICATIONS

COMPUTER COMPLEX FOR GEOPOLITICAL PROGNOZING

AND MANY- TEAM INTERNET TRAINING

FORMATION OF CITIES, MODEL OF ISOLATION OF HARMFUL MANUFACTURES FOR LIMITS OF CITY

DEMOGRAPHYCAL AND MIGRATION MODELING WITH GIS

MULTIAGENT MODELING AND PROGNOZING OF MARKET PROCESSES

SOME METHODOLOGIES FOR RISK EVALUATION IN LARGE HETEROGENEOUS TECHNICAL SYSTEMS

ANTICIPATORY AGENTS, SCENARIOS APPROACH IN DECISION- MAKING AND SOME QUANTUM -MECHANICAL ANALOGIES.

SOCIAL INFORMATICS – NEW EDUCATIONAL DISCIPLINE

SYNERGETICS OF SOCIAL SYSTEMS

GIS


4. e- services for cities

Here as the first example for system analysis we consider the large city.

Such considerations may serve as some background for investigations of e- services problems in the cities and practical solutions.

According our approach the large city is the complex object with many elements and interconnections between them.

So the large city has a little number of hardly changeable natural states of development.

Attractors in our models correspond to such states.


Thus approach allows in principle to evaluate the future states of cities, the future city center(s) location, fragmentation or consolidation of city.

Natural and relatively easy measurable phenomena and objects - geography, climate, resources, demography, and ecology also may be accounted in approach.

Useful is application of geoinformational systems of local and regional levels.

Such parameters as the mentality, mobility of habitants may be represented in approach.

The special space and time scales should be

accounting in case of city just as the specific formalizations of parameters.

The approach may be useful as the framework concept for concrete problems investigations and e-services design.


5. Example of problem: Cheap notebook for all

As the presumable problem (which may be typical for many IT tools) we propose the example of cheep (100$) notebooks program proposed by team of Nikolas Negroponte (MIT, USA).

The main idea of the program is to propose free of charge the cheep notebook with independent power generator for developing countries.

This is interesting example for further deep analysis including the social impact, e- services development, advantages and possible drawback.

Let us suppose that this program will be realized.

So imagine the limit case that all peoples in developed countries will receive the notebook and access to INTERNET.

What are the possible consequences?


A lot of profit exists (digital inequality decreasing, new possibilities, new education, new skills etc).

But some dangers also will rise (implicit and explicit).

For example if the peoples will receive new skills without employment then we may receive the environment for crimes and terrorism (with dependence of original culture of the country).

Second problem is presumable reducing of the culture diversity and total control of society.

Third is the growth of accessible information without its transformation into knowledge.

Some usual for PC consumer health problems also may originate.

Another interesting problem is counting economical cost and optimal parameters of implementation such idea.

Remark that described problems may be considered as one of typical examples in e- services implementation.


6. Country as large scale social system

Illustration of the ideas above – that is some problems and background in e-services application.

Here we consider the country level and especially the problems of developing countries with stressing the Ukrainian experience as the background.

Remark that such list of problems is the result of previous discussions and the system analysis.

Also some efforts have been applied to resolve the problems during the experience of NGO Atlantic Council of Ukraine and some discussion in EUROSCIENCE society.

Besides new education specialty 'social informatics' had been created in our institute with the purpose to prepare the specialists on informational technologies in society and for society.


It is not the secret that now a developing countries have a lot of serious problems. Such problems are connected to the historical non -development or to the transformation from one state of country to another (as in former USSR countries).

At first glance the problems are evident: economical, political, the human rights, ecological, health care, poverty and many others.

But deeper analysis follows to the conclusion that common peculiarity of developing countries is the shortage of democracy and civil society.

The consequences are the lack of adequate to recent challenge

infrastructures, lack of power structures balances lack of public opinion accounting in the

government non-activity, non - sustainable development, lack of environment for enterprise development.


The most important consequences of such way of development are some obsolete way of population thinking (and mentality models of the world).

Moreover the old internal structure of such societies partially reproduces such obsolete thinking in young generations.

Namely such old mental structure and internal structure of developing society are the sources of failure of economical and political reforms in our countries.

Remark also that non - optimal top- level management in such countries implicitly has also background in the population consciousness.

Of course the diversity of cultures in general sense (by A.Toinby) leads also to diversity of domestic conditions and historical ways of development.


Thus to improve society in developing countries in is necessary

1) to reconstruct the infrastructures in society,

2) to reconstruct the mentality of population and leaders.

In such situation the e-services may be one of the key factors !!!.

But their applications require special investigation and design of infrastructure.


Many tools exist for such goals:

direct forcing for task 1,

education of new generations for task 2,

economical stimulation for both tasks,

natural (isolated) evolution of country and many others

in dependence on the scale of the problem considered.

Also the target groups of transformation process may be different from bottom to upper level.

Remark that unfortunately frequently the international efforts and projects for developing countries are directed to top levels of governance without deep reconstruction of bottom levels, infrastructure and mentality.

Analysis of existing tools for transformations follows to the conclusion that in the solutions of the country problems above one of the most suitable tools in gaming and simulation (GS) on the base of recent informational technologies and e-services.


We should stressed that such problems are new and needs new investigations by expert community,

but mathematical modeling is one of the (or may be unique) tool for considering such complex object, doing virtual experiments and designing the transformation events.

The multiagent approach and author's models are good technical tools for such investigations.

Of course it needs also special investigations

on necessary resources and financial base, considering the different possible scenarios which are intrinsic for large social systems, risks evaluations and collaboration of international and domestic specialists on IT, GIS, GS , politics, scientists and independent experts.


SOME APPLICATIONS

COMPUTER COMPLEX FOR GEOPOLITICAL PROGNOZING

AND MANY- TEAM INTERNET TRAINING

FORMATION OF CITIES, MODEL OF ISOLATION OF HARMFUL MANUFACTURES FOR LIMITS OF CITY

DEMOGRAPHYCAL AND MIGRATION MODELING WITH GIS

MULTIAGENT MODELING AND PROGNOZING OF MARKET PROCESSES

SOME METHODOLOGIES FOR RISK EVALUATION IN LARGE HETEROGENEOUS TECHNICAL SYSTEMS

ANTICIPATORY AGENTS, SCENARIOS APPROACH IN DECISION- MAKING AND SOME QUANTUM -MECHANICAL ANALOGIES.

SOCIAL INFORMATICS – NEW EDUCATIONAL DISCIPLINE

SYNERGETICS OF SOCIAL SYSTEMS

GIS


ILLUSTRATIONS

OF

DEVELOPMENTS

AND

SOFTWARE

POSSIBILITIES

General Fields of Development

System Analysis and Prognosis for Socio- Economical Systems

System Analysis of Large Cities

Evolution

Information Technologies for

Education

Medical Engineering and

socio- medical Geoinformatics

Separate Applied and Theoretical Investigations

Prognosis of Prognosis of Population Population MigrationMigration

Population Population Involvement Involvement

in Laborin Labor

DemograpDemographical hical

dynamicsdynamics

Capital Capital StoreStore

Salary on Salary on LaborLabor

Productivity Productivity of of LaborLabor

System Analysis and Prognosis of Socio- Economical Systems

DEMOGRAPHYC

MIGRATION

MODELING WITH

GIS

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CASE OF CAPITAL ATTRACTIVITY

System Analysis of Mega System Analysis of Mega -cities Development-cities Development

Current Current Administration Administration

Problems of Problems of Kiev Kiev

DevelopmentDevelopment

Scenario analysis of harmful Scenario analysis of harmful firms removal from mega- firms removal from mega-

citiescities

System System Analysis of Analysis of Sustainable Sustainable

Development Development of cities of cities

Formation of cities, model of Formation of cities, model of isolation of harmful isolation of harmful

manufactures for limits of citymanufactures for limits of city

Institute of Applied System Institute of Applied System AnalysisAnalysis

Makarenko Alexander, Trofimenko Makarenko Alexander, Trofimenko AlexanderAlexander

http://www.mota.ru/download.php?path=towns&img=002.jpg






Medical Engineering and Socio- Medical Engineering and Socio- Medical GeoinformaticsMedical Geoinformatics

Algorithms for Algorithms for Patient Medical Patient Medical

Information Information ProcessingProcessing

Informational and Informational and Prognosis Prognosis Support in Support in

EpidemiologyEpidemiology

System Analysis of Pollutant Influence on System Analysis of Pollutant Influence on Population Health: Monitoring, Analysis, Population Health: Monitoring, Analysis,

Prognosis and PlanningPrognosis and Planning

MODELING

OF GLOBAL

GEOPOLI-

TICAL PROBLEMS

The Characteristics Of StatesThe Characteristics Of States

1994 Result1994 Result

Virtual ResultVirtual Result

AfghanistanAfghanistanAfghanistanAfghanistanAfghanistanAfghanistanAfghanistanAfghanistanAfghanistan

AlbaniaAlbaniaAlbaniaAlbaniaAlbaniaAlbaniaAlbaniaAlbaniaAlbania

AlgeriaAlgeriaAlgeriaAlgeriaAlgeriaAlgeriaAlgeriaAlgeriaAlgeria

AndorraAndorraAndorraAndorraAndorraAndorraAndorraAndorraAndorra

AngolaAngolaAngolaAngolaAngolaAngolaAngolaAngolaAngola

AnguillaAnguillaAnguillaAnguillaAnguillaAnguillaAnguillaAnguillaAnguilla

ArgentinaArgentinaArgentinaArgentinaArgentinaArgentinaArgentinaArgentinaArgentina

ArmeniaArmeniaArmeniaArmeniaArmeniaArmeniaArmeniaArmeniaArmenia

Aruba (neth.)Aruba (neth.)Aruba (neth.)Aruba (neth.)Aruba (neth.)Aruba (neth.)Aruba (neth.)Aruba (neth.)Aruba (neth.)

AustraliaAustraliaAustraliaAustraliaAustraliaAustraliaAustraliaAustraliaAustralia

AustriaAustriaAustriaAustriaAustriaAustriaAustriaAustriaAustria

Azores (port.)Azores (port.)Azores (port.)Azores (port.)Azores (port.)Azores (port.)Azores (port.)Azores (port.)Azores (port.)

BahamasBahamasBahamasBahamasBahamasBahamasBahamasBahamasBahamas BahrainBahrainBahrainBahrainBahrainBahrainBahrainBahrainBahrain BangladeshBangladeshBangladeshBangladeshBangladeshBangladeshBangladeshBangladeshBangladesh

BelizeBelizeBelizeBelizeBelizeBelizeBelizeBelizeBelize

BeninBeninBeninBeninBeninBeninBeninBeninBenin

BermudaBermudaBermudaBermudaBermudaBermudaBermudaBermudaBermuda

BoliviaBoliviaBoliviaBoliviaBoliviaBoliviaBoliviaBoliviaBoliviaBotswanaBotswanaBotswanaBotswanaBotswanaBotswanaBotswanaBotswanaBotswana

BrazilBrazilBrazilBrazilBrazilBrazilBrazilBrazilBrazil

Brunei DarussalamBrunei DarussalamBrunei DarussalamBrunei DarussalamBrunei DarussalamBrunei DarussalamBrunei DarussalamBrunei DarussalamBrunei Darussalam

BurundiBurundiBurundiBurundiBurundiBurundiBurundiBurundiBurundi

CambodiaCambodiaCambodiaCambodiaCambodiaCambodiaCambodiaCambodiaCambodia

CanadaCanadaCanadaCanadaCanadaCanadaCanadaCanadaCanada

Cape VerdeCape VerdeCape VerdeCape VerdeCape VerdeCape VerdeCape VerdeCape VerdeCape Verde ChadChadChadChadChadChadChadChadChad

ChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChinaChina

ColombiaColombiaColombiaColombiaColombiaColombiaColombiaColombiaColombia

ComorosComorosComorosComorosComorosComorosComorosComorosComoros

CongoCongoCongoCongoCongoCongoCongoCongoCongo

CyprusCyprusCyprusCyprusCyprusCyprusCyprusCyprusCyprus

DenmarkDenmarkDenmarkDenmarkDenmarkDenmarkDenmarkDenmarkDenmark

DjiboutiDjiboutiDjiboutiDjiboutiDjiboutiDjiboutiDjiboutiDjiboutiDjibouti

EcuadorEcuadorEcuadorEcuadorEcuadorEcuadorEcuadorEcuadorEcuador

EgyptEgyptEgyptEgyptEgyptEgyptEgyptEgyptEgypt

Falkland IslandsFalkland IslandsFalkland IslandsFalkland IslandsFalkland IslandsFalkland IslandsFalkland IslandsFalkland IslandsFalkland Islands

FinlandFinlandFinlandFinlandFinlandFinlandFinlandFinlandFinland

GibraltarGibraltarGibraltarGibraltarGibraltarGibraltarGibraltarGibraltarGibraltar

GreenlandGreenlandGreenlandGreenlandGreenlandGreenlandGreenlandGreenlandGreenland

GuamGuamGuamGuamGuamGuamGuamGuamGuamGuineaGuineaGuineaGuineaGuineaGuineaGuineaGuineaGuinea

Hong KongHong KongHong KongHong KongHong KongHong KongHong KongHong KongHong Kong

IcelandIcelandIcelandIcelandIcelandIcelandIcelandIcelandIceland

JapanJapanJapanJapanJapanJapanJapanJapanJapan

KazakhstanKazakhstanKazakhstanKazakhstanKazakhstanKazakhstanKazakhstanKazakhstanKazakhstan

KyrgyzstanKyrgyzstanKyrgyzstanKyrgyzstanKyrgyzstanKyrgyzstanKyrgyzstanKyrgyzstanKyrgyzstan

LesothoLesothoLesothoLesothoLesothoLesothoLesothoLesothoLesotho

MadagascarMadagascarMadagascarMadagascarMadagascarMadagascarMadagascarMadagascarMadagascar

MaldivesMaldivesMaldivesMaldivesMaldivesMaldivesMaldivesMaldivesMaldives

MaliMaliMaliMaliMaliMaliMaliMaliMali

MaltaMaltaMaltaMaltaMaltaMaltaMaltaMaltaMalta

MexicoMexicoMexicoMexicoMexicoMexicoMexicoMexicoMexico

Micronesia, Fed StatMicronesia, Fed StatMicronesia, Fed StatMicronesia, Fed StatMicronesia, Fed StatMicronesia, Fed StatMicronesia, Fed StatMicronesia, Fed StatMicronesia, Fed Stat

MongoliaMongoliaMongoliaMongoliaMongoliaMongoliaMongoliaMongoliaMongolia

NepalNepalNepalNepalNepalNepalNepalNepalNepal

NigerNigerNigerNigerNigerNigerNigerNigerNigerOmanOmanOmanOmanOmanOmanOmanOmanOman

Papua New GuineaPapua New GuineaPapua New GuineaPapua New GuineaPapua New GuineaPapua New GuineaPapua New GuineaPapua New GuineaPapua New Guinea

ParaguayParaguayParaguayParaguayParaguayParaguayParaguayParaguayParaguay

PeruPeruPeruPeruPeruPeruPeruPeruPeru

Russian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian FederationRussian Federation

SeychellesSeychellesSeychellesSeychellesSeychellesSeychellesSeychellesSeychellesSeychelles

SomaliaSomaliaSomaliaSomaliaSomaliaSomaliaSomaliaSomaliaSomaliaSri LankaSri LankaSri LankaSri LankaSri LankaSri LankaSri LankaSri LankaSri Lanka

UkraineUkraineUkraineUkraineUkraineUkraineUkraineUkraineUkraine

United StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited StatesUnited States

BelarusBelarusBelarusBelarusBelarusBelarusBelarusBelarusBelarus

Example calculation of

the

car traffic in Darnitsa

district of the Kiev

city.

Traffic in center of CityTraffic from center of City

SIMULATION OF

TRAFFIC IN

CITIES AND

BUILDINGDS

Cellular automata and Multi - agent systems

Example 2 of traffic simulation

• The case of intensive traffic

• Some regions with concentration of elements and car jam

Building car route with use of geographic information

systemsMapInfo и ISGEOMap

MULTIAGENT

MODELING AND

PROGNOZING OF

MARKET

PROCESSES

MARKET OSCILLATION

Separate Applied Separate Applied InvestigationsInvestigations

System System Complexity Complexity Algorithms Algorithms

and and InvestigationsInvestigations

Multi- Agents Multi- Agents Models for Models for

Socio- Socio- Economical Economical

SystemsSystems

Poly- Poly- disperseddispersed

Fuels Fuels InvestigationsInvestigations

Algorithms for Algorithms for Neuro- signalsNeuro- signals

ProcessingProcessing

Space Plasma Space Plasma Statistical Statistical

InvestigationsInvestigations

Neuronet Neuronet Models and Models and AlgorithmsAlgorithms

Virtual Virtual Computer Computer Chemistry Chemistry LaboratoryLaboratory

Future Prospect Fields of Future Prospect Fields of Research and Research and DevelopmentDevelopment

Control and Control and Optimization Optimization

for Mobile for Mobile RobotsRobots

Scenarios Scenarios Analysis and Analysis and

Risks in Risks in Socio- Socio-

Technical Technical Systems Systems

Application of Application of Multi- valued Multi- valued

ModelsModels

Quantum Quantum Computing Computing

and New and New Information Information Processing Processing AlgorithmsAlgorithms

BioinformaticsBioinformatics

Strategic Strategic Planning for Planning for

UkraineUkraine

NeuroinformatiNeuroinformatics and cs and

NeurophysioloNeurophysiologygy

ConsciousnesConsciousness s

Investigations Investigations and Modelingand Modeling

New New Algorithms for Algorithms for

Pattern Pattern RecognitionRecognition

Thanks for

attention

l e|GovDays, Prague, 19-20 April, 2006

Alexander Makarenko

System Analysis, Foresees and Management of E-Services Impacts on Informational Societies

Education

Transcript of System Analysis, Foresees and Management of E-Services Impacts on Informational Societies