Syrian civil war: Impact on Global Peace and Stability
-
Upload
sajid-karim -
Category
Education
-
view
28 -
download
3
Transcript of Syrian civil war: Impact on Global Peace and Stability
1
Syrian Civil War: Impact on Global Peace and
Stability
Sajid KarimResearch Officer, BIISS
& Md. Nazmul Islam
Research Officer, BIISS
In House Seminar 06 June 2016
2
Research Questions
What is the geo-political significance of Syria?
What are the main causes of Syrian civil war?
Who are the key actors of Syrian civil war?
What are their interests and what role are they playing?
What are the implications of this war and how is this
war affecting the global peace and stability?
What is the impact of Syrian civil war on Bangladesh?
3
Presentation Outline
Geo-political Significance of Syria
An Overview of Syrian Civil War
Implications of the Syrian Civil War
Conclusion
4
The study is qualitative in nature and based on both
primary and secondary data
Primary data has been collected through Interviews.
Secondary data has been collected from books,
journals, reports, news clippings, seminar papers
and internet based articles.
Data Collection Method
5
Name Designation Date
Mr. Masudur Rahman Director General, West and Central Asia Wing, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Government of Bangladesh
18 May 2016
Mr. K. M. Ali Reza Deputy Chief, Ministry of Expatriates Welfare and Overseas Employment, Government of Bangladesh
19 May 2016
Mr. Shakirul Islam Chairman, Ovibashi Karmi Unnayan Programme (OKUP)
02 June 2016
List of Respondents
6
Geopolitical Significance of Syria
7
8
Geopolitical Significance of Syria Syria is surrounded by some of the largest energy-
rich counties of the world. Syria lies at the centre of two of the most crucial
future gas pipelines: Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline (the “Islamic
Pipeline”) Qatar-Saudi Arabia-Jordan-Syria-Turkey
pipeline (the “Qatar-Turkey Pipeline”) Syria is also a key strategic player for Iran and
Russia to uphold their interest in the Middle East.
9
Geopolitical Significance of Syria
90%
8%1% 1%
Figure 01: Ethnic groups in Syria
Arab-90 %
Kurds-8 %
Armenians-1%
Others-1 % 74%
10%
3%3% 10%
Figure 02: Religious Groups in Syria
Sunni-74%
Alawites-10%
Druze-3%
Other Muslim-3%
Christians-10%
10
An Overview of Syrian Civil War
Genesis of the Crisis
Key Actors
Time line of the
Conflict
11
Syrian Civil War: An Overview Counterinsurgency means government’s campaign to restore order
and ensure its own reach throughout the geographical confines of the state against armed opponents who aims at overthrowing the government. In this case, counterinsurgency in Syria describes the Assad regime’s attempts to regain control over the whole of its territory, an objective which was abandoned by the fall of 2012.
Civil war implies that controlling the entire territory within the state is no longer feasible because the armed opposition has become strong enough to stop government’s advancement consistently. In case of Syria, the insurgency transitioned to a civil war when the opposition forces successfully overran regimes’ positions in the northern region and closed to Damascus in 2012.
12
Autocratic nature of President Bashar al-Assad Inevitable re-balancing of power along ethnic and
religious lines Deteriorated social and economic condition Competing gas interest among the countries of the
Middle East as well as Russia Water crisis in Syria Inadequate and faulty response from the
government to address the crisis
Genesis of the Crisis
13
State Level Actors
Regional Level Actors
Global Level Actors
Key Actors
14
Key State level Actors
The government of Baath Party headed by president Bashar al-Assad
The government of Baath Party headed by president Bashar al-Assad
15
Key Regional Level Actors
Iran
Iraq
Lebanon
Iran
Iraq
Lebanon
16
Key Global Level Actors
Russia
China
Russia
China
17
• The unrest began in the southern city of Deraa
March 2011
• Free Syrian Army (FSA) was formed by 7 defecting Syrian officers
August 2011
• Jabhat al-Nusra – the new al-Qaeda franchise in Syria announced its creation.
January 2012
Syrian Civil War Timeline
18
• Mr. Kofi Annan was appointed as the UN-Arab League Joint Special Representative for Syria.
February 2012
• For the first time, a UN official, Herve Ladsous, UN’s head of peacekeeping proclaimed Syria to be in a state of civil war .
June 2012
• The International Committee of the Red Cross also declared Syria in the state of a civil war
July 2012
Syrian Civil War Timeline
19
• ISIS was created. April 2013
• Government of Syria was accused of using chemical weapon to civilians. August 2013
• A presidential election was held in which Bashar al-Assad was elected for the third term.
June 2014
Syrian Civil War Timeline
20
• USA made its first military intervention in Syria jointly with five Arab allies.
September 2014
• Army of Conquest was formed by eight Islamist rebel factions.March 2015
• Russia launched its first air strike in Syria. September 2015
Syrian Civil War Timeline
21
• Global powers initiated a peace process in Vienna known as talks of the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) in which Iran took part for the forst time.
October 2015
• UN announced the formal start of peace talk for Syria.February 2016
• The UN Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2268 on 26 February 2016 that demanded all parties to comply with the terms of a USA-Russian deal on a “cessation of hostilities”.
February 2016
Syrian Civil War Timeline
Implications of
the Syrian Civil War
Implications of the Syrian Civil War
1. Implications at National Level
2. Implications at Regional Level
3. Linking National and Regional Impacts with Global Implications
Implications at
National Level
According to the Syrian Centre for Policy Research (SCPR), it is estimated that the deadliest war has directly
and indirectly killed 470,000 Syrians.
Implications at National Level
More than half (13.5 million ) of the country’s population has been internally displaced.
The civil war has massively devastated Syria and its people
Life expectancy has dropped from 70.5 years in 2010 to an estimated 55.4 years in 2015 and mortality rate has
increased from 4.4 per thousand in 2010 to 10.9 per thousand in 2015.
Implications at National Level
More than half of all Syrian refugees are under the age of 18 and most them have been out of school for
years. The older children are forced to grow up too fast for
finding work and taking care of their families in desperate circumstances.
Implications at National Level
13.8 million Syrians have lost their source of livelihood
Prices in conflict zones are much higher than elsewhere in the country and in 2014 consumer
prices rose 53 per cent from 2013
Economic structure of Syria has almost been demolished.
Poverty increased by 85 per cent in 2015.
Implications at National Level
The destruction within Syria has devastated many Syrian cities and historic sites. The war has affected 290 heritage sites including all 06 UNESCO World Heritage Sites in
Syria.
Culture
Implications at National Level
Syria’s civil war is grinding down the country’s national mechanism and creating the conditions for continuing the
conflict. Although the national government survives on paper, but it does not exercise direct control over its national security, services and institutions that might
create further mayhem within Syria.
Implications at
Regional Level
Implications at Regional Level Challenge to
implement Turkey’s Middle
East policy known as
“zero problems with
neighbours”. Shiite-Sunni reconciliation will become
more difficult.
Kurd goals for a single Kurd state and will
raise tensions in Turkey , Iraq and
Iran.
Tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran
might ignite Shiite Sunni conflict in a
larger context.
A major influx of refugees with approximately 500,000
displaced people. Existing anti-government sentiment among Jordan’s Salafist community may
increase.
Refugee crisis in Lebanon.
Deepening the political impasse
between the country’s two most powerful
political players-March 8 (Shiite)
and March14 (Sunni)
alliances. Possible transfer of chemical
weapons to Hezbollah. A rebel government with a
strong Islamist character is also threat for Israel.
Implications at Regional Level
The large presence of refugees takes a significant financial toll as well as influence security environments
of the various states along Syria’s border.
Sectarian tensions worsened by the war will matter to influence both domestic and regional political
systems.
Pre-existing tensions, particularly in Lebanon and Iraq and Turkey could deteriorate further and might
turn into open conflict.
Implications at
Global Level
Implications at Global Level
Political vacuum created by the crisis has allowed Russia to attain the status of a dominant player in
shaping the future of the Middle East.
Corrosive effect on West’s relations with both Russia and China and disagreement between the both have
increased the rift.
Biggest wave of disorderly migration after the Second World War. According to UNHCR, total number of worldwide displaced people reached 59.5 million at
the end of 2014, with a 40 per cent increase taking place since 2011 and among them Syrian refugees
became the largest refugee group.
Implications at Global Level
Adverse impact on global oil market.
Rise of ISIS and other extremist organisations.
Destruction of Syria’s precious culture is a great loss for global culture and heritage.
Possibility of an inclusive peace process.
Implications on
Bangladesh
Implications on Bangladesh
Instability in Syria in particular and in the Middle East as a whole might hamper the overseas employment
market of Bangladesh.
2012 2013 2014 20150
200000
400000
600000 6,07,798
4,09,253 4,25,6845,55,881
Year
Tot
al N
umbe
r of O
vers
eas
Em
ploy
men
t
Implications on Bangladesh
Bangladeshi diaspora living in the Middle Eastern region might get radicalised by the ideology of the rising
extremist groups.
Recent tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran has posed a challenge for Bangladesh.
Syrian crisis might open new window of opportunity for Bangladesh as the country can send skilled and
semi-skilled workers to Syria to assist in post-conflict reconstruction stage.
Open Discussion