Syriaa Revolution,

a Conspiracy or a Civil War

Universita Ca’ Foscari Venezia, 25 janvier 2013Samir AITA

Founding Member of the Syrian Democratic ForumEditor in Chief, Le Monde diplomatique Arabic editions

President du Cercle des Economistes Arabes

Syria, a Revolution in the Wake of the 

« Arab Spring »

• A Revolution: What for?o We don’t want to talk politics, we want to overthrow the regime !!!

The « youth Tsunami » May 1968

The « power system above the state » The 1973 oil boom model and its geopolitics

The Youth Tsunami

• A baby boom around the 90’s youth bulge now, like Europe in the 1960’s, but without the « GloriousThirty »

• May 68!

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Syrie: Répartition de la population suivant les tranches d'âge

Where are the youth?

• Rural Urban Migration: in small towns and in suburbs

• mapping Socially the Uprisings

• IslamismAnd socialintegration

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Algerie

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Tunisie

Evolution de la part de la population urbaine (%)

Where are the jobs?• Chronic deficiency in job creations

• Labour force: >+300,000/ year• Job created: 65,000/year (8,000 formal)!!!!!!!!!!!!!

• De-industrialisation

Agriculture

Industrie

Construction

CommerceTransport  

Finance

Services

Syrie

What is EMPLOYMENT?

• What is a salary man? What is a citizen?

Syria, a Revolution in the Wake of the 

« Arab Spring »• A Revolution following the failure of “reforms”

2000: the son after the father in a Republic 2001: The “Damascus Spring” : the collapse of the scheme

of gradual reforms 2003: The “social market economy” : economic reforms first

= the reinforcement of the “power system above the state” = crony capitalism

2005: Loosing Lebanon: the struggle of two power systems = the lost of regional influence

2010: The “Arab Spring” is not for us…. 2011-2012: from a civic and peaceful “Revolution”towards a full fledged “War”

Syria, a Revolution in the Wake of the 

« Arab Spring »• More than 22 months and no issue

February 2011: Deraa and Hauran the power system should stay united

March 2011: The social network the “people want to topple the regime”

March – June 2011: local negotiations for a national crisis! The National Coordination Board

June 2011: The “National Dialogue” the breakdown with civil society

October 2011: foreign powers organize political opposition the Syrian National Council : an umbrella for opposition or “a State in place of the State” = the Libyan pollution

March 2012 : The failure of politics “Long life to the Free Syrian Army” creation of the Syrian Democratic Forum

July 2012 : The Cairo Documents: The National Compact and the vision of Transition

November 2012: the creation of the Coalition

No politics, no negotiations, we want to overthrow the regime

Syria, an Uprising or a Revolution

• Whatever the sufferings, if it does not bring human values, it is just an uprising

From a local to a national uprising : “we are all Deraa” Staying Peaceful: “Silmiyyeh, Silmyyeh” You will not divide us: “The Syrian people are one ! We are all

Kurds !” The rise of politics and media the regionalization of conflict

“No violence, No sectarianism, No Foreign Intervention”NCB against SNC “we represent the people, we wantforeign reconnaissance, and no-fly zone”

“toppling dictatorship” against toppling “all symbols ofregime”

Syria, the road to war

• God, we only have you

What is political representation ?“we are the State” against “stop the killing”

The Arab League : a mediator?The invention of “Peace monitors” Who is the Arab League ?

“God we only have you” you vs political Islam The United Nations and security Council as mediators

The new cold warNobody want to intervene

Syria, an Uprising or a Revolution

• Long life to the Free Syrian Army

From a peaceful uprising to a military civil war Who is the Free Syrian Army ? “ Even a war can only be won through politics”

The Syrian Democratic Forum Formulating Future

The National Pact… The transition program

Bridging the rifts: military – society - politics

Syria, a Conspiracy to Break 

the « Arab Spring »

• Is the “Arab Spring” only for populated republics?

Two “Arab Worlds” : Can the new “Arab awakening come from the Gulf”

What to do with oil and gas money?

“You have to acknowledge that there is a majority !”

Reshaping the Middle East : Sunni versus Shia axes

Revolution or Sunni‐Shiaa conflict

The Domino effect and the role of the army

• The domino effect in the “Arab Spring”

Tunisia : the army helping a quick outcome

Egypt: The army is on the people side !!!

Bahrain: The army comes from Saudi Arabia

Yemen: the army divided between the tribes and combatting terrorism

Libya: the Qatari-French conspiracy against the army

Syria: trying to reproduce the Libyan Scenario: the ideological army!!!

Syria, a local or a regional conflict

• Media and satellite channels: information or a weapon of mass manipulation

Qatar: a Superpower? Iran: a friend or a Foe? Turkey: A secular or a Sunni State? Friend or Foe Saudi Arabia: competition or collaboration in the Gulf Iraq: Which Iraq? The Kurdish, the Sunni or the Shia quasi-

States? Egypt: too busy with its own turmoil… France: a regional or a far away power? La Question d’Orient Israel: where does it stand?

What can the Arab League do?

The Road for Oil

The Road for Qatar Gas

Turkey, a secular or religious state

where are the alevis?

Is it the historical for an independent 

Kurdish state?

Syria, the place for a new Cold War

• “We shall not admit that any foreign country intervene in Syria” Serguei Lavrov

The US: does it really want democracy in the region? Russia: why taking so much risk “supporting the regime”? China: what are its interests here? The UK: so subtle

UN and the Security Council: Will the Ibrahimi mission succeed?

Can superpowers influence regional emerging powers?

Syria, a Civil War ?

• “You have to acknowledge that there is a majority in this country” !!! Azmi Bishara

Syria is a complex mosaic Is the regime an alawi or an Assad family regime? The map of the uprising: big cities against country side Why Damascus and Aleppo were late to move? Why there was no strong uprising in the Alawi, Druze,

Ismaeli and Christian areas? Why the regime didn’t shoot on the Kurds? Where the tribes stand?

Syria? Religious, Regional and ethnic 

identities

Syria, regional interdependence of the local 

mosaic

Syrian Arab Republic, or just Syria?

Syria, a Sectarian/Civil War ?

• The Army is ideological !

Why the army did not side with the uprising? Ideological army = alawi army? Are Sunni population a “majority” ? What is the aim of uprising/revolution? Replacing a State

by another? Local Syrians/emigrant Syrians divide?

Syria divided

The Battle of Hauran

The Battle of Aleppo

Katma

Tell Rifaat Marae

Anadan

Aleppo

The Battle of Damascus

The Battle of Ras Al Ain

Syria, an Uprising or a Revolution

Formulating Future : what is common ? Identity/religion/ ethnicity

Can there be a democracy without a State?

Punishment and/or Reconciliation: what is transitional justice?

Preserving independent will: Can Syria crisis be solved without constraining regional powers?

Can non-democratic people/countries help building democracy ?

Is there an “Arab Spring” ?