SYRIA

A Brief Country Assessment

ABSTRACTA country raised through conflict, now razed by it. This is an informational country assessment.

Sean R. Bell SSG, US Army

Syrian Civil War

(Current Threats and Regional Influence)

Syria is no stranger to conflict, internal or external. From the Ottoman Empire to the

French Mandate through World War I and II, and even with independence Syria has been riddled

with conflict, only experiencing peace in short bursts of only a few years at a time. The most

current conflict being one which has wrought the most internal damage both to infrastructure and

the people of Syria, has evolved from a civil uprising against the Ba’athist Regime into a full

scale war simply known as the “Syrian Civil War”. Starting on 15 March 2011 with protesters

demanding the resignation of current president Bashar al-Assad, 18 March 2011 these mostly

non-violent protests were met with violent military action, killing at least four protesters and

injuring several dozen[1]. This unprecedented violence towards unarmed civilians created a

snowball effect on both sides, prompting the Syrian government to issue a “shoot-to-kill” order

against protesters. This level of violence towards unarmed civilians caused a rift within the

Syrian army leading to defections throughout the military, defectors and civilians began to form

an unled opposition that continued to grow as more and more civilians were killed (an estimated

418 in the Daraa governorate alone by June[1]). April 2011 saw the first real organizing of

civilian protesters which quickly led to the beginning of an organized armed opposition marking

the start of the current civil war, at the head of the opposition was defector Colonel Riad al-

Asaad. Along with several other military defectors COL. Al-Asaad officially formed the Free

Syrian Army (FSA) on 29 July 2011, this marked the formation of the armed wing of the Syrian

opposition.

With the formation of an armed opposition the flood gates opened up for all manner of

internal and external threats, ranging from al-Qaeda to the Government of Syria itself. A current

look at internal threats to Syria will show that there are two main factions on both sides of the

conflict, on one side the FSA and on the other side the Syrian government. Taking an in-depth

look at the FSA will show they provide a large portion of the external threat to Syria within their

ranks and through their cause (the removal of the current regime and establishment of a free

government), during the rise of the FSA saw the need for more troops and better weaponry to

counter the conventional superiority of the Syrian military. The need for soldiers was for the

most part answered internally due to the violent nature the Syrian government was attempting to

suppress protesters and the armed opposition, with defectors and armed civilians alone the FSA

grew to an estimated 40,000 strong [2]. Unconfirmed evidence and eye-witness reports suggest

that Syrian army troops are selling ammunition and weapons to the opposition, along with

attacks on military bases and convoys have given the opposition the majority of what they need

to become a true threat. On the other side the Syrian military even with corruption and a

significant number of defections has access to the full military capabilities of Syria, to include

air, armor, and chemical weapons. Combine this with limited discretion on the application of

said capabilities, makes for a very significant threat without any outside help. Externally there

has been an influx of foreign fighters to include al-Qaeda, Iranian Revolutionary Guard,

Hezbollah, and several others. Some of these foreign groups have only come in to take

advantage of this conflict in hopes of gaining some political foot hold or gaining support for their

group’s ideology. Externally there are many factors that contribute to the overall threat factor of

Syria, many of them include the support for either factor by way of weapons, troops, and money.

With all of these internal and external factors and no one side truly winning the biggest threat to

Syria is the continued conflict. With massive casualties, displaced civilians, UN sanctions, war

crime allegations on both sides, and an influx of extremist groups with no one to stop them; Syria

has become a growing threat to itself and its neighbors.

The result of both threats has caused serious problems for Syria and its people, costing

over 110,000 lives on all sides so far, this number includes over 40,000 civilians [3]. The death

toll is only one a part of the overall effects these threats are having on Syria. With more than two

million refugees and an estimated 10,000 crossing out of Syria every day [4] (to put this into

perspective, that would be like every person in Houston, TX picking up and moving). The major

cities where the majority of the fighting is happening (Aleppo and Damascus) which are Syria’s

economic hubs, is taking a significant toll on the countries already adversely affected economy.

Syria’s economy is undoubtedly the principal casualty of the aforementioned threats, with

second order effects being the actual cost of war; ranging from the cost of military action to the

loss of key infrastructure. The third order effects are the indirect factors that were the driving

force behind Syria’s already struggling economy, such as tourism which exceeded 9 billion

dollars in 2009 a now nonexistent enterprise. Another key factor of the economy indirectly

affected by these threats are Syria’s industry and exports which account for almost 35 percent of

the Syrian economy, these revenue sources are now nearly nonexistent. To put a number to these

threats would put the total cost as of 2012 at 36.5 billion dollars with the total cost rising every

month it is estimated to be over 200 billion dollars to reconstruct Syria and get the economy

underway again [5].

With no clear end in sight, it is difficult to say how these threats will ultimately shape

Syria. The most likely result of these two major threats will be a continued war with gains being

minute on either side for the next several months. I offer two distinct possibilities in order of

likelihood. (1) The Syrian opposition with its growing support and increasing effectiveness

against the continually shrinking (though conventionally superior) Syrian regime, will topple the

Syrian government, ousting Bashir al-Assad and the Ba’athist party from Syria and turn their

attention to removing any remaining extremist element (al-Qaeda and the Al-Nusra front) from

Syria. FSA’s next goal will be to establish a free government similar to a democracy and rebuild

the infrastructure and economy which will be extremely difficult due to the vast amount of

damage done by both sides. That being said it is highly likely that there will be added difficulty

from pro-Assad countries such as Iran that will attempt to sabotage this newly formed

government, making an already slow and painful process that much more difficult. (2) On the

other end we have the al-Assad regime fighting off the FSA and reclaiming Syria, making all of

this fighting, death, destruction, and economic collapse for naught. The government will do its

best to reestablish infrastructure, but without a large portion of its work force a lot of outside

help will be necessary to keep this war torn country from completely collapsing. The majority of

the refugees that left will be wary about returning to what will surely be a police state with an all

too familiar brutality, but still a large portion of them will return in order to reestablish some

semblance of a lost life. The regime will run into trouble as war crime allegations are laid out

(not without heavy resistance from Assad and his allies) eventually Assad will be removed from

power, with a high likelihood that he will be replaced from someone else within the Syrian

Ba’ath party. Ultimately the best outcome is for the regime to fall to the FSA leaving an

opportunity for Syria to rebuild without oppression.

Syria has off and on effected the countries surrounding it whether directly such as Israel

and the multiple conflicts between the two countries over the last several decades, or indirectly

such as the case with the United States where Syria was threatened with direct action over the

use of chemical weapons. Thus putting many regions on high alert, until Russia stepped in (after

refusing to join in talks to sanction Syria) with a diplomatic solution eliminating the need for

military action and embarrassing the United States. The vast majority of regional effects have

taken place with start of Syrian civil war. Most of these effects have been negative, starting with

the economic toll. Lebanon is taking the brunt of Syria’s current situation with the staggering

amount of refugees (mentioned above). Lebanon is currently populated with just over one

million of Syria’s refugees, cutting Lebanon’s GDP growth by almost three percent equaling out

to roughly 2.6 billion dollars with a cumulative loss of 7.5 billion dollars since the start of the

conflict [6]. Jordan, Turkey, Iraq, and Egypt are also sharing the same issue to a lesser degree.

Not all of the effects are considered negative, Kurdistan is a prime example. As the Kurds

continue to dominate in northern Syria, the Kurdish economy is booming and Kurdistan is

setting up to possibly shape the Middle East. Israel could possibly see benefits of Syria’s current

situation, if the regime falls the new Syrian government will be weaker and easier to influence

since they are anti-Iran. There are many factors to consider when looking at the possible second

order effects of Syria on the region, such as the civil war occasionally crossing into neighboring

countries (Iraq, Lebanon, and Turkey) to the importing and exporting of goods to other countries

due to sanctions. As for third order effects, some of them still need time to develop and some are

already having an effect. For example the outbreak of extremist groups in the region such as the

boundless al-Qaeda, who’s participation has garnered much media attention and given them

access to more weapons and recruiting. There is also the possibility for this current situation to

effect the price of oil on a global scale, with Iran being Syria’s closest ally if things start to

escalate towards military confrontation I ran could close down the Strait of Hormuz which would

drive oil prices considerably higher [7]. How will it all play out? Most likely the Syrian

opposition will win over the Syrian regime making way for several changes to happen

throughout the Arab world and the Middle East. Iran will lose a significant amount of power

within the region, giving way to Israel and Turkey, while the Kurds start making territorial

claims for autonomy which could spark conflict between their current brothers in arms in Syria.

Al-Qaeda in the area will continue to recruit more members while Syria is attempting to pull

itself back together, which could see possible strikes in Israel, Lebanon, and Iraq. Peace in the

region is still far off even after the conflict is over.

Assessment

In the near term Syria’s civil war will most likely continue for a few more years as the Western

interest appears to be dwindling and regional interest is beginning to peak it is only a matter of

time until these countries with separate vested interests attempt to step in and call for a peaceful

resolution to this conflict. Further efforts will go towards rebuilding the massive amount of

damage that has been caused, with primary focus going to power and infrastructure while

returning the millions of refugees back to Syria. Syria’s immediate future truly depends on

which side of the conflict wins, with the opposition being the lesser of two evils. Majority of

countries directly or indirectly involved would like to see Assad fall, paving way for a new

government that will grant outside influencers such as Israel the opportunity to shape Syria into a

powerful ally against Iran and other anti-Israeli states. Long-term will see small conflicts

between opposed political parties within Syria most likely sparked by external groups with

interests similar to Iran’s. Economically Syria should have made a full recovery with significant

aid from allies and world powers, though if Assad’s regime wins the near term conflict this could

offset Syria’s ability to receive funds in the near term. Syria doesn’t have the resources to

sustain another conflict for a very long time and will be at the financial mercy of some of the

very countries that had to spend a not inconsiderable amount of money and time making their

own repairs. Lebanon will play a vital role in helping Syria through the next five to ten years as

well as Turkey and Jordan. As all of their economies directly affect Syria with trade and

tourism. At the end of it all Syria will need a lot of help from a lot of countries over a long

period of time before it can reach some state of normality other than conflict.