Synthetic Rubber Overview
Transcript of Synthetic Rubber Overview
Synthetic Rubber Overview
By Juan Ramon Salinas & Roxanna B. Petrovic.
International Institute of Synthetic Rubber Producers
Goa, India, March 2016
India Rubber Meet 2016 Proprietary & Confidential1
Topics
o About IISRP
o SR Market Structure
o SR Supply & Demand – Zoom in China
o SR Market Drivers
o Tire Technology Driver – Emissions Legislations
Proprietary & ConfidentialIndia Rubber Meet 20162
Topics
o About IISRP
o
o
o
o
Proprietary & ConfidentialIndia Rubber Meet 20163
About I ISRP
M i s s i o n
… . f o s t e r i n g t h e
g r o w t h a n d
c o n s u m p t i o n o f t h e
s y n t h e t i c rubbe r…
M e m b e r s
• + 5 0 C o r p o r a t e M e m b e r s
• + 2 0 C o u n t r i e s
• 7 0 % S R g l o b a l p r o d u c t i o n
Proprietary & ConfidentialIndia Rubber Meet 20164
Established in 1960…
Leadership – International President
Executive Committee
Managing Director & CEO
Gregory Nelson
EW Copolymer
I n t e r n a t i o n a l P r e s i d e n t2 0 1 5 - 2 0 1 6
About I ISRP
Proprietary & ConfidentialIndia Rubber Meet 20165
Topics
o
o SR Market Structure
o
o
o
Proprietary & ConfidentialIndia Rubber Meet 20166
SR Marke t S t ruc tu re
Source: World Rubber Statistics 2015 - IISRP
2 0 1 5 G l o b a l C a p a c i t y
Proprietary & ConfidentialIndia Rubber Meet 20167
Source: World Rubber Statistics 2015 - IISRP
C a p a c i t y E x p a n s i o n s , k t
SR Marke t S t ruc tu re
Proprietary & ConfidentialIndia Rubber Meet 20168
Source: World Rubber Statistics 2015 - IISRP
2 0 1 5 G l o b a l C a p a c i t y
SR Marke t S t ruc tu re
Proprietary & ConfidentialIndia Rubber Meet 20169
Source: World Rubber Statistics 2015 - IISRP
SR Marke t S t ruc tu re
C a p a c i t y E x p a n s i o n s , k t
Proprietary & ConfidentialIndia Rubber Meet 201610
Source: World Rubber Statistics 2015 - IISRP
SR Marke t S t ruc tu re
Proprietary & ConfidentialIndia Rubber Meet 201611
Topics
o
o
o SR Supply & Demand – Zoom in China
o
o
Proprietary & ConfidentialIndia Rubber Meet 201612
SR Supp ly & Demand
Source: Quarterly Report – IISRP.
BR 2015 Global Capacity = 4,977 kt (63% operating rate)
Proprietary & ConfidentialIndia Rubber Meet 201613
Source: IISRP - China.
BR 2015 China Capacity = 1,740 kt (44% operating rate)
SR Supp ly & Demand
Proprietary & ConfidentialIndia Rubber Meet 201614
Source: Quarterly Report – IISRP.
ESBR 2015 Global Capacity = 4,848 kt (64% operating rate)
SR Supp ly & Demand
Proprietary & ConfidentialIndia Rubber Meet 201615
Source: IISRP - China.
ESBR 2015 China Capacity = 1,450 kt (57% operating rate)
SR Supp ly & Demand
Proprietary & ConfidentialIndia Rubber Meet 201616
Source: Quarterly Report – IISRP.
SSBR 2015 Global Capacity = 2,004 kt (56% operating rate)
SR Supp ly & Demand
Proprietary & ConfidentialIndia Rubber Meet 201617
Source: IISRP - China.
SSBR 2015 China Capacity = 263 kt (22% operating rate)
SR Supp ly & Demand
Proprietary & ConfidentialIndia Rubber Meet 201618
• By the end of 2015 SR Capacity in India reached around 420 kt/year• Domestic SR producers are ramping-up production based on approvals from tire markets• India is expected t become self-sufficient between 2017 – 2018 reaching around 650 kt/year (+120 kt IIR JV
Reliance/Sibur, +110kt BR Gail).• India’s SR Consumption estimations by IISRP: 480 kt 2014 , and 500 kt by the end of 2015• India is importing around 300 kt of SR, so imports will decreased as the new capacity operating rates ramps-
up.• SR Consumption trend is driven by the GDP (higher exports and investor confidence boosted by new
structural reforms)
Proprietary & ConfidentialIndia Rubber Meet 201619
73%
12%
15%
Commodity SR Demand
Tires & Auto
Mechanical goods
Other
SR Supp ly & Demand
Proprietary & ConfidentialIndia Rubber Meet 201620
Topics
o
o
o
o SR Market Drivers
o
Proprietary & ConfidentialIndia Rubber Meet 201621
SR Marke t Dr ive rs
End Use
Markets
Over Capacity
China
NR
Oil prices
SR Marke t Dr ive rs
End Use
Markets
Over Capacity
China
NR
Oil prices
SR Marke t Dr ive rs
SR Marke t Dr ive rs
C a p a c i t y E x p a n s i o n s , k t
End Use
Markets
Over Capacity
China
NR
Oil prices
SR Marke t Dr ive rs
End Use
Markets
Over Capacity
China
NR
Oil prices
SR Marke t Dr ive rs
End Use
Markets
Over Capacity
China
NR
Oil prices
SR Marke t Dr ive rs
Tire
Dem
and
OE Tire Demand Car production
Replacement Tire Demand
Car Parc
SR Marke t Dr ive rs
IndiaIndonesia
China
Thailand
Brazil
Turkey
Mx
RussiaTaiwan
Malaysia
South Korea
UK
France
Germany
Japan
Spain
Italy
Australia
US
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Vehicles per capita (vehicles/1000 people)
Source: Wikipedia.org
SR Marke t Dr ive rs
Source: Scotiabank Economics – Global Auto Report - Nov 2015.
SR Marke t Dr ive rs
2829
2627
2930
3
12
2326 28
28
5
13
16
18 19
1990-1999 2000-2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e
Car Sales (millions of units)
Advanced Emerging (Inc. China) China
Topics
o
o
o
o
o Tire Technology Driver – Emissions Legislations
Proprietary & ConfidentialIndia Rubber Meet 201632
Top 5 emitting Countries and - EU 1990 - 2014
Source: Emissions database for Global Atmospheric Research (European Commission).
Ti re Techno logy Dr iver - Emiss ions Leg is la t ions
Ti re Techno logy Dr iver - Emiss ions Leg is la t ions
Source: Green Tires Fact Book – Lanxess (http://ebooks.lanxess.com/Fact_Book/)
Ti re Techno logy Dr iver - Emiss ions Leg is la t ions
Source: Green Tires Fact Book – Lanxess (http://ebooks.lanxess.com/Fact_Book/)
Closing
Questions
www.iisrp.com
roxanna@iisrp .com
3535 Briarpark Suite250Houston, TX 77042
+1 713 783 7511
International Institute of Synthetic Rubber Producers
Thank You /आपको बहुत बहुत धन्यवाद