Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 ·...

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OCS Study BOEM 20180017 Synthesis of Arctic Research (SOAR): Physics to Marine Mammals in the Pacific Arctic Final Report US Department of Commerce National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Final, 13 June 2018

Transcript of Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 ·...

Page 1: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

OCSStudy BOEM20180017

Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR))Physics) to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) Final)Report)

)

US)Department)of)Commerce) National)Oceanographic)and)Atmospheric)Administration) Final)13)June)2018)

DISCLAIMER))

ThisstudywasfundedinpartbytheUSDepartmentoftheInteriorBureauofOceanEnergyManagementEnvironmentalStudiesProgramWashingtonDCthrough InteragencyAgreementNumberM11PG00034withtheUSDepartmentofCommerceNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministrationOfficeofOceanicandAtmospheric ResearchThisreporthasbeentechnicallyreviewedbyBOEMandithasbeenapprovedforpublicationTheviewsandconclusionscontainedinthisdocumentarethoseoftheauthorsandshouldnotbeinterpretedasrepresentingtheopinionsorpoliciesoftheUS Governmentnordoesmentionoftradenamesorcommercialproductsconstituteendorsementorrecommendationforuse)

)

REPORT)AVAILABILITY)

TodownloadaPDFfileofthisAlaskaOCSRegionreportgototheUSDepartmentoftheInteriorBureauofOceanEnergyManagementEnvironmentalStudiesProgram InformationSystemwebsiteandsearchonOCSStudyBOEM20180017

ThisreportcanbeviewedatselectFederalDepositoryLibrariesItcanalsobeobtainedfromtheNationalTechnicalInformationServicethecontactinformationisbelow

USDepartmentofCommerceNationalTechnicalInformationService 5301ShawneeRd SpringfieldVA22312Phone(703)605060001(800)55306847 Fax(703)60506900 Websitehttpwwwntisgov

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CITATION)

MooreSEStabenoPJSheffieldGuyLMVanPeltTI2018SynthesisofArctic Research(SOAR)PhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArcticUSDeptoftheInteriorBureauofOceanEnergyManagementAlaskaOCSRegionAnchorageOCSStudy BOEM2018001761pp

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Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR))

Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)mdash)June)13)2018)

Prepared)forEnvironmentalStudiesProgramAlaskaOuterContinentalShelfRegionBureauofOceanEnergyManagement3801CenterpointDriveSuite500 AnchorageAlaska99503

Authors) DrSueEMoore DrPhyllisJStabeno NMFSScienceampTechnology OARPacificMarineEnvironmentalLaboratory 7600SandPointWayNE 7600SandPointWayNE SeattleWA98115 SeattleWA98115 SueMoorenoaagov PhyllisStabenonoaagov 206052606889 206052606453 LisaSheffieldGuy ThomasVanPelt ARCUS UWJISAO 3535CollegeRoadSuite101 7600SandPointWayNE FairbanksAlaska99709 SeattleWA98115lisaarcusorg thomasvanpeltnoaagov 907047401600 907024207725

Project)Status))) ) Completed Start)date) 20May2011 End)date) ) 15June2018 Project)Duration 7years

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Contents)

ListofFiguresv

ListofTablesv

Introduction6 Background7

Objectivesandmethods10 Objectives10 Methods10 Taskframework10 Taskdetail11 SOARPhase1andSOARPhase213

Results13 FoundationaltasksSciencesteeringcommitteeandworkshop13 TheSOARSciencesteeringcommittee13 SOARWorkshopndashMarch201214

Scienceproductandcommunicationtasks16 Peer0reviewedpublicationsmdashPhase1 16Peer0reviewedpublicationsmdashPhase2 18presentationsandpostersatscientificmeetings20 Othercommunicationofsynthesisapproachandproducts 20

Synthesissummaryanddiscussion20 SOARPhaseI20 SOARPhaseII34 OverallSOARContextandconclusion44

Literaturecited46

AppendixAndashListofSOAR2012workshopattendees54

AppendixBndashListofSOARcontributorsandinstitutions56

AppendixCndashListofSOARcontributorpresentationsatscientificmeetingsworkshopsandwebinars58

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List)of)Figures)

Figure1Mapofstudyareashowingprincipalcurrents(redlines)andmeansea0icemaximum (spring)andminimum(fall)extent(MooreandStabeno2015)7

Figure2CoverofthefirstSOARspecialissueProgressinOceanographyVol13616

Figure3HighlightsofrecentbiophysicalchangesinthePacificArcticmarineecosystem21

Figure4Generalizedconceptualmodeldepictingtheinfluenceofseaiceonpelagic0benthiccoupling onPacificArcticcontinentalshelves24

Figure5Marinebirdsandmammalsareuppertrophiclevel(UTL)speciesthatreflectecosystem alterationsbychangesinhabitatuse(extrinsic)andbodycondition(intrinsic)revealing fundamentalchangesinmarineecosystems27

Figure6ComponentsoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelndashlinkingpelagic0benthic couplingandadvectivemodelstoderiveaseasonalmodelforthePacificArcticframedby contiguousdomains32

Figure7TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodeldepictingseasonalbiophysicalpulsesin threeecologicaldomainsacrossalatitudinalgradientoverthecourseofanannualcycleinthe PacificArcticregion(MooreandStabeno2015)33

Figure8Paperscomprisingtheforthcoming20182ndSOARspecialissue(tobepublishedinDeep0 SeaResearchPartII)identifiedbyleadauthorandorganizedbyecologicaldomainsthatframe theArcticMarinePulsesmodel(Mooreetalinpress)35

List)of)Tables)

Table1ListofScienceSteeringCommitteemembersandinstitutions13

Table2ListofSOARSSCTeleconferencesandin0personmeetings14

Table3Papersincludedinthe2015SOARspecialissueofProgressinOceanography17

Table4PaperstoappearintheSOAR2ndPhasespecialissueinDeepSeaResearchPartII18

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INTRODUCTION)

ChangestothephysicalenvironmentoftheUSArcticOuterContinentalShelf(OCS)aredrivingshiftsinthedistributionandbehaviorofanumberofprotectedmarinemammalspeciesthatinhabitthosewatersThesamespeciesmaybeaffectedbyoilandgasactivities withinOCSPlanningAreaswithstrongpotentialfordeleteriousinteractionsbetweennaturalandhumaninducedphenomenaEnvironmentalregulations(egNEPAtheESAandthe MMPA)requiretheBureauofOceanEnergyManagement(BOEM)toevaluatewhetherand howfederalactionsassociatedwithoilandgasdevelopmentmayaffecttheseprotectedspeciesandthemarineenvironmentonwhichtheydependInformationonoceancirculation andhydrographyisusefulfortheseevaluationsaswellasforinputintomodelsusedtopredicttheoutcomeofoilspillsHoweverphysicsalonecannotpredicthowprotected speciesandthemarineecosystemsuponwhichtheydependwillrespondtonaturalandanthropogenicforcingGivenrecentinvestmentsbyBOEMotherfederalagencies(egNOAA USGSNSF)andtheoilandgasindustryininterdisciplinarybiologicalandoceanographicresearchinthePacificArcticregion(PAR)asynthesisofresultsofcompletedandongoingstudieswillhelptoinformmanagementdecision0makersandtoguidefutureresearch activities

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)PhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArcticprojectprovidesaframeworkforasynthesisofscientificinformationdrawnfromcompleted andongoingmarineresearchinthePacificArcticregionTheSOARprojectaimstoincreasescientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsbenthicorganismslowertrophicpreyspecies(foragefishandzooplankton)andmarinemammal distributionandbehaviorinthePARwithparticularemphasisonthenortheasternChukchiSeaSOARfurtheraimstoenhanceourcapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographic featuressuchascurrentsupwellingandiceleadsandassociatedchangesinthebehaviorof marinemammalsandtheirpreyintheregionandtoeffectivelytransmitfindingsofsynthesis activitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArcticresidentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

InthisreportweprovidedetailonthebackgroundmethodsandresultsoftheSOARprojectandsummarizethescientificoutcomesacrossthefirstandsecondphasesofSOAR

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BACKGROUND

ThePacificArcticregioncompriseswatersnorthofStMatthewIsland(60degNlatitude)inthenorthernBeringChukchiBeaufortandEastSiberianseas(Grebmeieretal2010)Theregionisanin0flowsystemtotheArctic(Carmacketal2006)withthreedistinctwater massesflowingnorththroughBeringStraitthenbathymetricallychanneledacrosstheChukchiSeashelfandintotheBeaufortSeabasin(Fig1)Theannualadvanceandretreatof seaiceisthekeyphysicaldriverofprimaryproductiontrophicinteractionsandhumanaccessandactivitiesovertheentirePARThephysicalclimateofthePARischangingrapidlydrivingchangeacrosstheregionalmarineecosystems(GrebmeierandMaslowski2014)

Figure)1))Map)of)study)area)showing)principal)currents)(red)lines))and)mean)seaVice)maximum)(spring)) and)minimum)(fall))extent)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

Thesummerminimumsea0iceextentin2007and2008coveredanareathatwas37less thanthearealcoverageoftwodecadespriorand20lessthanthepreviousminimumcoveragein2005(Stroeveetal2008)Thepaceofthesechangeswasunexpectedasthe consensusoftheclimateresearchcommunitywasthatsuchchangeswouldnotbeseenfor

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another30years(WangandOverland2009)Thereductioninsea0iceareaopensupvastnew regionsoftheArcticOceantoincreasedabsorptionofsunlightandstorageofheatThisheat isreturnedtotheatmosphereinthefollowingautumnresultinginincreasedArctic temperaturesofmorethan5degCextendingthesea0icefreeseasonthroughNovemberandcausingchangesinwindpatternsThesephysicalchangestotheArcticsystemappeartobe irreversible

Marinemammalsrespondtochangesinseaiceaccordingtotheirdependencyonitforvitallifefunctions(MooreandHuntington2008Kovacsetal2010)InthePARthedramaticchangesinseasonalsea0iceextentandtypeappeartohaveprecipitatedchangesinmarine mammalmigrationandfeedingpatternsForexamplelargeaggregationsofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)feedroutinelynearBarrowfromlatesummerthroughautumna phenomenonpreviouslyconsideredlsquosporadicrsquo(Mooreetal2010)Graywhales(Eschrichtius robustus)consideredatemperatespeciescommonlyfeednearthebowheadwhaleswhereas thetwospeciesappearedtobespatiallyandtemporallysegregatedintheearly1980s(Mooreetal1986)

Inadditiontothechangesinmarinemammalecologyanorthwardshiftofsomefishspecies(egSpencer2008MueterandLitzow2008RandandLogerwell2010)andtheprevalenceof euphausiids(Thysanoessaspp)indicatedthatthetrophicstructureofthePARischangingEuphausiidsareimportantpreyforbowheadandgraywhales(Ashjianetal2010Bluhmet al2007)andpossiblyalsoforicesealsEuphausiidsarethoughttobetransportedintothe PARfromthenorthernBeringSeaasreproductionhasneverbeenobservedinwatersnorthofBeringStrait(Berlineetal2008)Coupledtothisisthegeneraldearthofinformationon distributionandabundanceofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)inthePARaspeciesconsideredessentialintheshorttrophicfoodwebscommontopolarmarineecosystems(Ainleyand DeMaster1990)Examinationandsynthesisofhownaturalandhuman0associated environmentalvariabilityimpactsmarinemammalsrequiresinvestigationofthebiophysical changestotrophicstructureanddynamicsoftheirfishandinvertebrateprey

During200502015BOEMmadeextensiveinvestmentsinmarinemammalandrelated oceanographicstudiesintheeasternhalfofthePAR(ietheInternationalDateLineeastto theCanadianBeaufort)Datafromthosestudieswillconsiderablyaugmentthebodyof knowledgefortheregionbutinterpretationwouldbeconstrainedifresultsarenot integratedwithotherresearcheffortsAddressingthisintegrationwasthegenesisofthe SOARprojecttoundertakesynthesisofresearchfromongoingBOEMstudiesinthePARwhichincludebutarenotlimitedtothefollowing

bull BowheadWhaleFeedingVariabilityintheWesternAlaskanBeaufortSeaSatelliteTrackingofBowheadWhaleMovementsFeedingampOceanography

bull PassiveAcousticDetectionandMonitoringofEndangeredWhalesintheArctic

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bull EcosystemObservationsintheChukchiSeaBiophysicalMooringandClimateModeling

bull ChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea(COMIDA)ChemistryandBenthos

bull DistributionandRelativeAbundanceofMarineMammalsCOMIDAAerialSurveys

bull HannaShoalEcosystemStudy

bull MonitoringtheDistributionofArcticWhales(alsoknownasBWASP)

bull WalrusHabitatUseinthePotentialDrillingArea

bull PinnipedMovementsandForagingBeardedSeals

bull AssessingReproductionandBodyConditionoftheRingedSealnearSachsHarbourNorthwestTerritoryCanadathroughaHarvest0basedSamplingProgram

bull ArcticmarineresearchstudiessupportedthroughNationalOceanPartnership Program(NOPP)towhichBOEMcontributes

bull StudiesconductedbytheAlaskaDepartmentofFishandGame(ADFampG)andtheNorthSlopeBorough(NSB)underBOEMrsquosCoastalImpactAssistanceProgram(CIAP)

Dataandresultsfromrelated(butnotBOEM0funded)studiesthatalsocontributetotheSOAR includebutarenotlimitedtothefollowing

bull NOAArsquosRUSALCAprogram(USA0RussiabilateralstudyoftheChukchiSea)

bull StudiessupportedbyNSFOfficeofPolarPrograms

bull StudiessupportedbytheLandscapeConservationCooperativeNetwork

bull StudiessupportedbytheAlaskaDepartmentofFishampGametheUSGeologicalSurveyandbytheUSFishampWildlifeService

bull Studiessupportedbyoilandgasindustry(egShellConocoPhillipsStatOilBritishPetroleum)relatedtomitigationandmonitoringofeffectsofoffshoreexplorationanddevelopmentonmarinemammalsandtheirenvironmentegtheChukchiSea EnvironmentalStudiesProgram(CSESP)

)

)

)

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OBJECTIVES)AND)METHODS)

)

OBJECTIVES

)

TheSOARprojectfocusedonthreeobjectives

1 Increasescientificunderstandingoftheinter0andintra0relationshipsofoceanographicconditionsbenthicorganismslowertrophicpreyspecies(foragefishand zooplankton)andmarinemammaldistributionandbehaviorinthePARwithparticularemphasisontheChukchiSealeaseareas

2 Enhancecapabilitytopredictchangesinoceanographicfeaturessuchascurrents upwellingandiceleadsandassociatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARwithparticularemphasisonthenortheasternChukchiSea

3 EffectivelytransmitfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

)

METHODS

TASKFRAMEWORK

TheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojectwastouseavailableanalyticalandmodelingapproachestoidentifyandtesthypothesesthatcrossscientificdisciplinesSOARprovidesa frameworktosupportasynthesisofscientificinformationdrawnfromcompletedandongoingmarineresearchinthePacificArcticregionTheframeworkconsistsofsixtasks

1 establishaScienceSteeringCommitteetoprovideleadershipandoversightforthe synthesisproject

2 conductaSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)WorkshopinvolvingPIsfromall relevantresearchprogramsto

i identifyanddevelopsciencesynthesisthemesii detailrequireddataandanalysesforeachtheme iii formAnalyticalTeamstosupporttheworkofeachsynthesisthemeiv listanticipatedworkproducts(iepeer0reviewedpapersandpresentations)

and

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v deriveameanstoarchivedataandmeta0datausedinsupportofthesynthesis 3 supportAnalyticalTeamdataintegrationandanalysisincludingtheme0based

meetingsasneeded 4 trackprogressofanalyticalworkviabi0monthlyteleconferencesandannualSCCAT0

updateworkshops 5 producescienceproductsincludingpresentationsatprofessionalmeetingsand

publicationofpeer0reviewedpapersasaSpecialIssueamporThemeSectionsinanappropriatescientificjournaland

6 communicatesynthesisapproachandfindingstolocalArcticresidentsresourcemanagersnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

TASKDETAIL

TASK)1)))ESTABLISH)AND)CONVENE)SCIENTIFIC)STEERING)COMMITTEE)

LeadershipandguidanceofthesynthesisprojectwasprovidedbyaScienceSteeringCommittee(SSC)formedofseniorscientistswithdecades0longexperienceinthePacific ArcticAttheinitialSSCmeetingthegroupidentifiedrelevantprojectsdeveloped provisionalsciencethemesandidentifiedpotentialparticipantsandleadersfor interdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeamsformedatthesubsequentSOARWorkshop

TASK)2)))PLAN)AND)CONDUCT)SOAR)WORKSHOP)

Amulti0disciplinarySOARWorkshopwasthekeystoneinitialproductofSOARWorkshop participantsinventoriedavailabledataandevaluateditssufficiencytoaddressspecificcross0 disciplinaryhypothesesandquestionsprovisionallyidentifiedassciencethemesbytheSSCTheprovisionallistofthemeswasmodifiedandnewthemesemergedattheworkshopOnce sciencethemeswereagreeduponinterdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeams(AT)wereformedto conductthecoreworkoftheSOARprojectInterdisciplinaryATstheninitiatedthe developmentofshortproposalstosupporttheworkrequiredfordataintegrationanalyses andormodeling

TASK)3))SUPPORT)DATA)INTEGRATION)ANALYSIS)AND)MODELING

Inresponsetoproposalsdetailingtheworktobeperformedtimelineandproducts anticipatedmdashandincoordinationwithSSCreviewmdashfundingwasprovidedviacontractfor selectedATstointegratedataconductanalysesrunmodelsandordeveloppublicationsInsomecasesdirectfundingwasnotneededandin0kindsupportwasprovidedintheformofreviewcoordinationandpublicationfacilitationAsubsetofATsintegratedtheirworkwith

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on0goingoceanographicprograms(egRUSALCAandtheDistributedBiologicalObservatory[DBO])andinsomecasestheATsconductedfollow0ontheme0basedmeetingsorintegrativeworkshopsasthebestmeanstoaccomplishdataintegrationandsynthesisontheirtopic OtherATschosetointegratetheirworkviavideoorteleconferenceswiththebulkofcontract fundinggoingtowardssupportforagraduatestudentpost0docorotherresearcherto accomplishthesynthesistasksidentified)

TASK)4))TRACK)PROGRESS)OF)ANALYTICAL)WORK)

ATleadshadprimaryresponsibilityfortrackingtheprogressofworkontheirsciencethemeandmembersoftheSSCwerealsoaskedtofollowtheprogressoftheworktowardsuseful productsTrackingtooktheformofcontactatregularintervals(egbimonthly)viae0mailorphonesolicitingspecificinformationonproblemsencounteredandadherencetotimelineforproductcompletionSummariesofprogressoneachthemeappearedinQuarterlyReportsto theBOEM

TASK)5))SCIENCE)PRODUCTS))

ThecoreproductoftheSOARprojectwasaseriesofsciencepresentationsandpeer0reviewedpapersdescribingcurrentandprojectedstatusofthePARmarineecosystemAnnual presentationsontheapproachandprogressoftheSOARwereprovidedatplenarysessionsof theAlaskaMarineScienceSymposiumandadditionalpresentationsweremadeatother sciencevenuessuchastheAGUOceanSciencesmeetingSciencepaperswerethenpublishedinspecialissuesofpeer0reviewedjournalswiththeprojectPIsandcoordinatorservingas GuestEditors

TASK)6))COMMUNICATION)OF)SYNTHESIS)APPROACH)amp)PRODUCTS)

Inadditiontosciencepapersandpresentationsresultsofthesyntheseswereprovidedto communitiesinelectronicandhardcopyformatandopportunitiestospeakwithArcticresidentsweresoughtatco0managementmeetingsandotherforaAwebsitewasdeveloped providinggraphicsandbriefsummariesforgeneraluseandlinkingtootherrelevantsitesResultsofthesynthesiswerecommunicatedtovariousnationalandinternationalArctic Programs(egNOAAArcticReportCardSEARCHISACPAGIASCandArcticCouncilWorkingGroups)

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SOARPHASE1ANDSOARPHASE2

Task5(ScienceProducts)wasoriginallyenvisagedtoresultinaspecialvolumeofpeer0reviewedpaperspossiblysupplementedbyanadditionalsmallersetofpapersinatheme sectionorothersimilaroutletHoweverfollowingcompletionofthefirstphaseofSOARculminatinginthe2015specialissueofProgressinOceanography(MooreandStabeno2015 seeResultssectionbelowformoreinformation)therewasahighlevelofinterestinextendingSOARtoincludeadditionalsynthesisThereforethesecondphaseofSOARwas developedbuildingfromaninformalmid0projectworkshopandresultinginasecondfullspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchIIFurtherdetailisprovidedinthefollowingsections

RESULTS)

FOUNDATIONALTASKSSCIENCESTEERINGCOMMITTEEANDWORKSHOP

THESOARSCIENCESTEERINGCOMMITTEE

AScienceSteeringCommittee(SCC)comprisedofscientistsandAlaskancoastalcommunityrepresentativeswasestablished(Table1)ThefirstoffiveannualSSCmeetingswasheldfrom103November2011attheWatertownHotelinSeattleWATheSSCidentifiedrelevantprojects anddatasourcesdevelopedthreedraftsciencethemesandrelatedquestionsandidentified potentialparticipantsandleadersforassociatedinterdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeamsthatwould beformedatSOARScienceWorkshopMultiplesubsequentmeetingsfurtherdevelopedthe sciencethemesandprovidedguidanceforSOARtasks(Table2)

)

Table)1))List)of)Science)Steering)Committee)members)and)institutions)

ScienceSteeringCommitteeMember

Affiliation Location

RobynAngliss NOAANationalMarineMammalLaboratory

SeattleWA

CarinAshjian WoodsHoleOceanographic Institution

WoodsHoleMA

ChristopherClark CornellUniversity IthacaNY

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JacquelineGrebmeier UniversityofMarylandCenterforEnvironmental Studies

SolomonsMD

CraigGeorge NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EskimoWhaling

ComissionKawerak NomeAK

SueMoore NOAANMFS SeattleWA ChadJay USGeologicalSurvey AnchorageAK TimRagan MarineMammalCommission WashingtonDC PhyllisStabeno NOAAPMEL SeattleWA RobertSuydam NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK TomWeingartner UniversityofAlaska0

Fairbanks FairbanksAK

)

Table)2)List)of)SOAR)SSC)Teleconferences)and)inVperson)meetings)

SOAR)SSC)Meeting) SSCTeleconference1

Date) 21September2011

SSCTeleconference2 18October2011 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingSeattleWA 11November2011 SSCTeleconference3 16February2012 SSCTeleconference4 6April2012 SOARMarchWorkshop 14016March2012 SSCTeleconference5 6July2012 SSCTeleconference6 6October2012 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 21January2013 SSCTeleconference7) 9April2013 SSCTeleconference8) 14November2013 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 20January2014 SSCTeleconference9) 12January2015 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 23January2015 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK(informal)) 26January2016

SOARWORKSHOPndashMARCH2012

TheSOARScienceWorkshopwasheldfrom14016March2012attheEganCenterinAnchorageAlaskaTheSOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandProjectCoordinatorallmembersoftheScienceSteeringCommitteeand42ofthe43invitedSOARContributorsattendedthe

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workshopDraftScienceThemesandQuestionsdevelopedbytheSOARScienceSteeringCommitteewereprovidedtoparticipantsinadvanceoftheworkshopsummarizedas(i)EcosystemResponsetoBottom0upandorTop0downForcing(ii)MarineBirdsMammalsandFishasEcosystemSentinelsand(iii)AcousticEcology

TheprimarygoalsoftheScienceWorkshopwereto(1)refinetheDraftScienceThemesandQuestions(2)formresearchteamstoundertakeanalysisinsupportofdevelopmentofpeer0reviewedpapersand(3)developshortproposalstoidentifyprojectmilestonesandfinancialsupportrequiredtocompletesyntheticprojects

DayoneoftheworkshopconsistedofdisciplinarytalksinplenarysessiontoprovideallparticipantswiththecurrentstateofknowledgeineachareaofstudyDuringdaytwooftheworkshopsciencethemeswererevisedtoreflectgroupinputParticipantsdividedintothree theme0basedbreakoutgroupsandbegandevelopingsciencequestionstoproposeforSOARDaythreeoftheworkshopbeganwithaplenarysummaryofthepreviousdayrsquosprogress followedbybreakoutgroupstowriteandsubmitone0pageproposalsfortheprojects requestingfundingOntheafternoonofthethirddayanopen0sessionwasheldto communicateworkshopprogresstoBOEMscientistsandmanagerscolleaguesfromtheNorthPacificResearchBoardandAlaskaOceanObservingSystemindustryrepresentativesand otherinterestedpartiesFurtherdetailsoftheSOARWorkshopcanbefoundintheSOAR WorkshopReport(SheffieldGuyetal2012a)andseealsoSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)

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SCIENCEPRODUCTANDCOMMUNICATIONTASKS

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE1 FollowingtheinitialSOARthemeselectionsandteamdevelopmentandincorporatinganextensivepeer0reviewphaseledbytheprojectPIsandcoordinatorthefirstphaseofthe SOARprojectculminatedinaspecialvolumeofProgressinOceanographypublishedinAugust 2015(Fig2Table3)Thisspecialissueincluded16fullpapersplusanintroductionpaper authoredbythetwoprojectPIs

Figure)2)Cover)of)the)first)SOAR)special) volume)published)in)Progress)in)

Oceanography)in)2015)

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Table)3))Papers)included)in)the)2015)SOAR)special)issue)of)Progress)in)Oceanography)

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsofthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011 WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressinOceanography13612031 FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015Divergentpatternsofrecent seaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049 WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059 ArrigoKRvanDijkenGL2015ContinuedincreasesinArcticOceanprimaryproductionProgressinOceanography13660070 MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJNFeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091 GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarkeJTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSHLovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015EcosystemcharacteristicsandprocessesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114 LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132 CrawfordJAQuakenbushLTCittaJJ2015Acomparisonofringedandbeardedsealdietconditionandproductivitybetweenhistorical(1975ndash1984)andrecent(2003ndash2012)periodsintheAlaskanBeringandChukchiseasProgressinOceanography1361330150 DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarctic seaiceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161 LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015LimitstobenthicfeedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchangingseaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174 KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015SeasonalspatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareas ProgressinOceanography1361750200 CittaJJQuakenbushLTOkkonenSRDruckenmillerMLMaslowskiWClement0KinneyJGeorgeJCBrowerHSmallRJAshjianCJHarwoodLAHeide0Joslashrgensen MP2015Ecologicalcharacteristicsofcore0useareasusedbyBeringndashChukchindashBeaufort(BCB)bowheadwhales2006ndash2012ProgressinOceanography1362010222

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ClarkCWBerchokCLBlackwellSBHannayDEJonesJPonirakisDStafford KM2015AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasProgressinOceanography1362230240 MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationshipbetweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249 GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgressinOceanography1362500262 HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015ChangeintheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE2

Followingthe2015publicationofthefirstSOARspecialissueinProgressinOceanography theSOARprojectSSCandparticipantsdecidedtopursuecoordinatethepublicationofasetofpapersinfullsecondspecialissueThosePhase2topicsandpaperleadswerediscussedat theannualSOARSSCmeetinginJanuary2015Baseduponsuggestionsatthismeeting102pageproposalswererequestedfromsuggestedpaperleadsandproposalswerethen subsequentlydevelopedintopublishedpapersThemajorityofpapersforthesecondspecial issuewerecompletedandinpressbytheendof2017(Table4)withfinalpublicationofthe completespecialissueinDeepSeaResearchIIndashTopicalStudiesinOceanographyexpectedby latesummer2018

Table)4))Papers)to)appear)in)the)SOAR)2nd)Phase)special)issue)published)in)Deep)Sea)Research)Part)II)

Corresponding) Author Manuscript)Title

SueMoore IntroductionTheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)Project

MuyinWang SeaiceandoceancharacteristicsintheChukchiSeabyselectedCMIP5modelsthepresentandthefuture

NicholasBond DiagnosisofphysicaloceanographiceventsintheChukchiSea usinganoceanreanalysis

VictoriaHill DecadaltrendsinphytoplanktonproductioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

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JessicaCross FormationandtransportofcorrosivewaterinthePacificArcticRegion

LeeCooper DepositionpatternsontheChukchiShelfusingradionuclide inventoriesinrelationtosurfacesedimentcharacteristics

Matthew Druckenmiller

Trendsinsea0icecoverandupwellingpotentialwithinBowheadwhaleuseareasintheWesternArctic

KateStafford AcousticecologyofbowheadandbelugawhalesincoreuseareasintheBeaufortandChukchiSeas

JohnCitta Oceanographiccharacteristicsassociatedwithbowheadwhale movementsintheChukchiSea

JohnCitta SeasonaldistributionandoverlapofmarinemammalsintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseas

KimberlyRand UsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

ElizabethLogerwell Environmentaldriversofbenthicfishdistributioninandaround BarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwesternBeaufortSea

KathleenStafford BelugawhalesintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaasynthesisofavailableinformationontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StephenOkkonen Relationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskanBeaufortSea

MartinRobards UnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesintheAlaskanArcticPlace0basedcollaborationswithAlaskaNative communities

SueMoore TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)ModellinkingtemporalprocessestocontiguousdomainsinthePacificArctic

19

PRESENTATIONSANDPOSTERSATSCIENTIFICMEETINGS

SOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandcontributorsmademorethan50presentationsincludinginformationaboutthissynthesiseffortatavarietyofscientificmeetingsworkshopsandwebinarsAfulllistofthesepresentationsisprovidedinAppendixC

OTHERCOMMUNICATIONOFSYNTHESISAPPROACHANDPRODUCTS

TheSynthesisofArcticResearchwebsitelocatedathttpswwwpmelnoaagovsoar providesbackgroundinformationandup0to0datescienceproductinformationtostakeholders andthegeneralpublicThewebsitewillcontinuetobeliveandhostedbyNOAA

Severalpeer0reviewedpaperswerepublishedthatalsoappealtoamoregeneralortrans0 disciplineaudienceincludingSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)andSheffieldGuyetal(2016)SOARsynthesisresultswerefeaturedinnumerousnewspapersonlinefeaturesmagazines andmore

SYNTHESIS)SUMMARY)AND)DISCUSSION)

SOARPHASEI

ThefirstphaseofSOARresultedinfifteenpaperspublishedinaspecialissueofProgressin Oceanographyin2015(Table3)HereweprovideabroadoverviewanddiscussionofthepapersinthatspecialissuedrawnfromtheIntroductiontothatissue(MooreandStabeno 2015)

1 Introduction)

TheinitiationoftheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)projectcoincidedwiththerecognitionthatbiophysicalchangesinthePacificArcticregionweresoextremecomparedtotherecentpastthattheyacquiredthemonikerlsquonewnormalrsquo(Jeffriesetal2013) ConsequentlydescribingthebiophysicalpropertiesofthelsquonewlsquoPacificArcticmarineecosystemwasfoundationaltotheSOAReffortandthefocusoffivepapersinthefirstspecial issueExaminingbiologicalresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingthenbecamethetaskofresearchersfocusedonthestudyoflowertrophiclevel(LTL)communitiesanduppertrophiclevel(UTL)speciesTwopapersprovideintegratedresultsfromdirectsamplingofbenthic andfishcommunitieswhilethreepapersreportonchangesinLTLspeciesoccurrenceinferredbyshiftsinthedietsofsealsandmarinebirdsSixpapersfocusonUTLspecieswith fourpresentinginformationonseasonaloccurrenceinhotspotorcore0usehabitatsandtwo describingvariabilityinmarinemammalbodyconditioninthecontextofdecadal0scale

20

environmentalvariabilityTogetherthesepapersprovideasyntheticcontexttofocushypothesesunderpinningthenextdecadeofresearchinthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

2)Biophysics)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

ThePacificArcticmarineecosystemiscomprisedofinflowshelves(northernBeringandChukchiseas)coupledtointeriorshelves(EastSiberianandBeaufortseas)withthe contrastingbiophysicsofthesedomainssummarizedinCarmacketal(2006)Circulationon bothinflowandinteriorshelvesislinkedtopan0arcticteleconnectionmechanisms(egArcticOscillation)withinteriorshelvesalsostronglyinfluencedbytheseasonaloutflowof relativelywarmfreshwaterfromarcticriversEvaluatingecosystemstatusandtrendsinthePacificArcticwasthefocusofarecentbookwith10(of12)chaptersdevotedtoobservationsandmodelingoftheatmosphereoceanphysicsandchemistry(GrebmeierandMaslowski 2014)Thepapersinthefirstspecialissueaddtothatbodyofknowledgeespeciallywithregardtobiologicalresponsestobiophysicaldriversandinthiswaycontributetoamore holisticunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

21)PhysicalobservationsandopenwaterprojectionsinthelsquonewnormalrsquoPacificArctic

Recentobservations(200302013)ofenvironmentalchangesinthePacificArcticsupportthecontentionthatanewnormalclimateisemerging(Fig3Jeffriesetal2013Woodetal 2015)

Figure)3))Highlights)of)recent)biophysical)changes)in)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

21

Theiconicindicatorofthischangeisthedramaticsummertimelossofseaice(50byarea75byvolume)whichinsomeyears(eg2012)hasresultedinnearlyice0freeconditionsin theregionSpecificallysatellitedatafrom197902012reveallocalizedchangesinsea0ice occurrenceofupto0164daysyearintheCanadaBasinand0124daysyearintheBeaufort Seawhichacceleratedto0657daysyear(CanadaBasin)and01284daysyear(Beaufort Sea)duringthe200002012period(Freyetal2015)Multiyearseaicehasalmostentirelydisappearedwithinter0annualvariabilityiniceconcentrationlargelydrivenbywindforcing intheBeaufortSeaIntheCanadaBasindifferencesinannualseaiceareprimarilythermallydrivenwhilesea0iceextentisinfluencedbybothwindsandheatontheBeringSeashelf

Thesummeratmosphericpatternsinfluenceoceancirculationfreshwaterpathwaysand movementandmeltingofseaiceDuringthelastdecadetheintensificationoftheBeaufortHigh(OgiandWallace2012)resultedinanomaloussummerwindsTheseanomalouswinds togetherwiththelossofmulti0yeariceweretheprimaryfactorsthattransformedtheChukchiandnorthernBeaufortseasintoanopenwaterenvironment(Woodetal2015)InparticulartheeasternBeaufortSeaappearstobeparticularlysusceptibletoanomalouswindsthrough theireffectontheadvectionofwarmfreshwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumeInadditiontransportanomaliesintheBeringStraitaredeterminedbycompetinglarge0scale atmosphericpatternstheBeaufortHighandAleutianLow(Danielsonetal2014)NotablychangesinBeringStraitflowthroughcanimpacttheworldclimatefarbeyondtheBeringStraitandArcticregion(egHuetal2015)

Freyetal(2015)investigatetheinfluenceofthePacificDecadalOscillation(PDO)andtheArcticOscillation(AO)onthepersistenceofseaiceinsummerandwinterTheyfoundsignificantnegativecorrelationsbetweenseaiceonthesoutheasternBeringSeashelfandthe PDOinwinteraswellassignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweentheAOandsea0icecoverjustsouthofStLawrenceIslandSignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweenthePDOandsea iceintheCanadaBasin0CanadianArchipelagowerefoundinsummeraswellasbetweentheAOandseaiceintheChukchi0BeaufortseasThisnovelinvestigationofteleconnections betweenthePDOtheAOandsea0icecoverprovidesacriticalstepinunderstandinghow globalandregionalclimatepatternsinfluencethephysicsofthePacificArcticregion

Theunprecedentedlossofseaicehasresultedinatremendousincreaseinopen0water susceptibletorapidsolarheatingwithadditionalheatandfreshwaterprovidedbya50 increaseinPacificWaterinflowatBeringStraitfrom200102011(Woodgateetal2012 Woodetal2015)TheinfluenceofincreasedheatstoredintheChukchiandBeaufortseasis notwellunderstoodSuggestionsthatheatreleasedtotheatmosphereinlateautumnandwinterdrivesaspectsofmid0latitudeweatherremainspeculativelargelyduetotheshort timerecordavailable(Woodetal2015)FresheningoftheArcticOceanhasbeenoccurring atleastsincethe1990s(egGilesetal2012)Severalexplanationshavebeenproposed includingincreasedsea0icemeltfresherPacificWaterflowingthroughBeringStraitchanges inthemagnitudeofriverdischargeandthemeanstrengtheningoftheBeaufortHighInrecentyearsrelativelystrongeasterlywindshavebeencommonduetotheArctic0wide

22

patternofcirculationaroundanintensifiedBeaufortHighUndertheseconditionsfreshand warmwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumecanbelaterallytransportedfaroutintothe BeaufortSea(Woodetal2015)

WangandOverland(2015)comparedresultsfromtwelvecoupledclimatemodelstoproducecompositeprojectionsofthedurationofopenwaterintheChukchiandBeaufortseasat decadalintervalsfrom201002050andin2090Forwatersnorthofthe70degNopen0water durationshiftsfrom304monthsin2010toaprojected~5monthsby2040Projectedopen0 waterdurationisaboutonemonthlongeralongthesamelatitudesintheChukchiSeacomparedwiththeBeaufortSeawithuncertaintyofaboutplusmn1monthestimatedfromtherangeofmodelresultsAllmodelsprojectedopen0waterdurationtoexpandquicklyoverthe nextthreedecadeswhichwillimpactregionaleconomicaccessandpotentiallyalterecosystemsYetthePacificArcticregionwillremaincoveredwiththinfirst0yearicefrom JanuarythroughMayintothesecondhalfofthecenturyduetoseasonallackofsunlight

22Changesinprimaryproductionandoceanacidification

Thedramaticlossofsea0iceextentandvolumehasresultedinaconcomitantincreaseinlightpenetrationintheupperoceanacrosstheArcticGiventhethinningandarealreductionof seaiceafundamentalquestionariseshavethesechangesfosteredanincreaseinmarineprimaryproductionSpecificallyisthePacificArcticregionmoreproductivethanitwasthreedecadesagoIntheAtlanticArcticLeuetal(2011)measuredprimaryproductionby bothicealgaeandphytoplanktonincontrastingyears(2007008)ofsea0icecoverinaSvalbardfjordandconcludedthatearliericebreakupcorrespondedwithearlieronsetofa phytoplanktonbloomSimilarlyTremblayetal(2012)reportincreasedprimaryproductionfor2007008associatedwithextremesea0iceretreatsandincreasedupwellingatstations locatedsouthandeastofBanksIslandinthesoutheasternBeaufortSeaButcanconclusions drawnfrommeasurementssorestrictedinspaceandtimebeextrapolatedtolargerarcticregionsUsingsatelliteimageryArrigoandvanDijken(2015)investigatedchangesinseaice atbothregionalandbasinscalesfrom199802012andestimatedhowthesechangeshaveimpactedratesofnetprimaryproduction(NPP)byphytoplanktonTheyreportthatannual NPPincreased30duringthisperiodwiththelargestincreasesontheinteriorshelves (includingtheEastSiberianandBeaufort)andsmallerincreasesoninflowshelves(includingtheChukchi)OutflowshelveseitherexhibitednochangeinannualNPPoradeclineperhaps indicatingthatnutrientshadbeenconsumedfurtherupstreamIncreasedannualNPPwasoftenbutnotalwaysassociatedwithreducedsea0iceextentandresultantlonger phytoplanktongrowingseason

HumanactivitieshaveincreasedtheatmosphericCO2concentrationbyabout40sincethebeginningoftheindustrialageanditisestimatedthattheoceanhasabsorbedmorethan25

23

ofthetotalanthropogenicemissions(Mathisetal2015)TheoceanicuptakeofCO2triggersaseriesofchemicalreactionsinthesurfaceoceanthatreducespHandresultsinocean acidification(OA)InshortOAmakesseawatercorrosivetocalciumcarbonatemineralswhichmanymarineorganismsrelyonforbodystructuresHigh0latitudeoceanshave naturallylowcarbonateconcentrationssoareconsideredtobemorevulnerabletotheimpactsofOAbecauseadditionalcarbonatelossrepresentsamuchgreaterproportionalchangetothesystemInanovelstudyMathisetalprovideariskassessmentofOAimpacts tocommercialandtraditionalfisheriesfocusedonshellfishsalmonandfinfishTheresultant indexsuggeststhatwhilethenorthernBeringSeaisatmediumriskfromOAimpactsto fisheriesPacificArcticwatersnorthoftheSewardPeninsulaarecurrentlyatlowriskduelargelytoalackofdependenceonthesefoodsources

3)Lower)Trophic)Level)Communities)signals)from)direct)and)indirect)sampling

ThepredominantconceptualmodelframinghowmarineecosystemsinthePacificArctic respondtoreducedseaiceisbasedonchangesanticipatedfromashiftinpelagic0benthic coupling(Fig4)

Figure)4))Generalized)conceptual)model)depicting)the)influence)of)sea)ice)on)pelagicVbenthic)coupling)on) Pacific)Arctic)continental)shelves)

24

OnthebroadshelvesthatcomprisemuchofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemnewprimaryproductionfromsea0icealgaeandphytoplanktonbloomsfallstotheseafloortosupportrich benthiccommunities(Grebmeier2012)Asseaicethinsandretreatsearlierintheseasonitisanticipatedthatearlierandlargerphytoplanktonbloomswillswitchfromabenthic0 dominatedtoapelagic0dominatedmarineecosystemThisshiftwillcascadethroughthesystemsupportingnovelcommunitiesofsecondaryandtertiaryconsumers(zooplanktonandforagefishes)anduppertrophiclevelmarinebirdsandmammalsIndeedGrebmeieret al(2006)suggestedthatthistypeofecosystemshiftisalreadyunderwayinthemarinecommunitiesofthenorthernBeringSeaThePacificArcticisoftendescribedasabenthic0 dominatedmarineecosystemonethatdoesnotsupportalargebiomassorspeciesdiversityoffishesAdescriptionofconditionsthathavefosteredexistingbenthichotspotsoffersa solidfoundationforassessingfuturechangeswhileanaccountingoftheexistingcommunitiesofmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsprovidesastartingpointuponwhichtobuildalong0termrecord)

31Benthichotspotsandmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitats

ArecordofextantconditionsiskeytointerpretingmarineecosystemresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingnowevidentinthePacificArcticSucharecordexistsforfourbenthic lsquohotspotrsquocommunitiesinthenorthernBeringandChukchiseas(Grebmeieretal2015a)but notformarinefishesLong0termsamplingofbenthicmacrofaunalcommunitiesindicatesthatthebenthichotspotshavemaintainedconsistentlyhighbiomassforuptofourdecadesdueto reoccurrenceofseasonallyreliablemoderate0to0highwatercolumnproductioncoupledwithexportofcarbonfromoverlyingwaterstotheseafloorUppertrophiclevelbenthivorestargetpreyaggregationsineachofthehotspotsOverallbottom0upforcingbyhydrography andfoodsupplytothebenthosinfluencespersistenceandcompositionofbenthicpreywhichinturninfluencestheuppertrophiclevelspeciescompositionandseasonaloccurrence Whenconsistentlysampledintandemthesebenthos0benthivoreconnectionscanfacilitate useofUTLspeciesassentinelsofshiftsinpreycompositionandabundance(Mooreetal2014)

Sincethe2000stherehavebeenahostofArcticmarinefishsurveysintheChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasprecipitatedbybothscientificinterestintheimpactsofclimatechangeandcommercialinterestinoilandgasdevelopment(Logerwelletal2015)Resultsfrom thesesurveysprovideanovelopportunitytocompareArcticfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsrangingfromlagoonsandbeachestobenthicandpelagiccontinental shelfwatersAsynthesisofdatafromthesesurveysrevealedmoresimilaritiesthandifferencesinhabitatusebetweenthetwoseasForexamplenearshorehabitatisusedbyallageclassesofforagefishesandisalsoanurseryareaforotherspeciesinboththeChukchiand westernBeaufortseasNotablysomecommercialspeciesmaybeexpandingtheirrangenorthtothesewatersincludingchinooksalmon(Oncorhynchustshawytscha)walleyepollock (Gaduschalcogrammus)andflatfishes(Pleuronectidae)Inadditionasynthesisofinformationonrelativeabundanceandageofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)andsaffroncod

25

(Eleginusgracilis)bothkeypreyspeciesinArcticfoodwebssupportedthedevelopmentoflifehistoryanddistributionmodelsthatwillinformfutureresearchontrophicdynamicsin thePacificArcticsector

32Inferencesofmarineecosystemshiftsfromsealsseabirdsandseaducks

Additionalinformationregardingtheimpactoflsquonewnormalrsquobiophysicalconditionsonlowertrophiclevelspeciescanbeinferredfromshiftsinthedietandbodyconditionofmarine mammalsandbirdsCrawfordetal(2015)comparedthedietandconditionofringedseals(Pusahispida)andbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)harvestedintheAlaskanBeringand Chukchiseasduringhistorical(197501984)andrecent(200302012)periodsTheyfoundthe proportionoffishinthedietofbothspeciesincreasedintherecentreduced0iceperiodcomparedtothehistoricalperiodInadditionringedsealsgrewfasterhadthickerblubber andmaturedtwoyearsearlierBeardedsealshadthickerblubberintherecentperiodbut didnotmanifesttheotherchangesreportedfortheringedsealsAlthoughanumberofthe comparisonswerenotstatisticallysignificanttakentogethertheseobservationssuggestgreaterfishavailabilityintheAlaskanBering0Chukchimarineecosystemsupportinggood bodyconditionintheseals

AsinthesealpaperDivokyetal(2015)parsedalong0termdatasetintorecent(200302012)andhistorical(197501984)periodstocompareoceanographicconditionsnestlingdietandfledgingsuccessatablackguillemot(Cepphusgryllemandtii)breedingcolonyinthewestern BeaufortSeaFrom15Julyto1Septemberseaiceretreatedanaverageof18kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof958kmfromthecolonyduringthehistoricalperiodwhileinthe recentperiodiceretreataveraged98kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof5069kmSeasurfacetemperaturenearthecolonyincreasedby29⁰CbetweenthetwoperiodsWhileArcticcodcomprisedover95ofthepreyprovidedtonestlingsinthehistoricalperiodthis proportiondecreasedtolt5ofthenestlingdietduringmostyearsintherecentperiodwhendemersalsculpin(Cottidae)comprisedthemajorityofthedietTheshiftawayfrom Arcticcodwasassociatedwithafive0foldincreaseintherateofnestlingstarvationand reductionsinnestlinggrowthandfledgingmassConverselyannualadultsurvivalduringthe nonbreedingseason(September0May)showednosignificantdifferencebetweenthetwo periodssuggestingnochangeintheavailabilityofArcticcodorinoverallpreyavailabilityto blackguillemotsintheirBeringSeawinteringarea

IncontrasttoarelianceonpelagicpreyLovvornetal(2015)investigatedpotentialclimate0 relatedlimitstobenthicfeedingbyseaducksalongtheirmigrationcorridorinthenortheasternChukchiSeaKingeiders(Somateriaspectabilis)primarilyeatclams(bivalves) duringmigrationandrecentsamplinghasshownthatdenseclamassemblagesoccuronlyinspecificlocationsalongthemigrationcorridorSeaicecanpreventeidersfromreachingtheseprimefeedingsiteswithsatellitedataforApril‒May(2001‒2013)showingthataccess canvaryfrom0‒100InawarmingandincreasinglyvariableclimateaccesstobenthicfeedingsitesmaybefurthererodedbytheeffectsofwindsonunconsolidatediceThese

26

resultsunderscoretheimportanceofmaintainingarangeofbenthicfeedingareasthroughoutthemigrationcorridortoensurepreyavailabilitytotheeiderseachyear)

4)Upper)Trophic)Level)Species)marine)birds)and)mammals)as)ecosystem)sentinels

Astoppredatorsmarinebirdsandmammalsmustadapttochangesintheirhabitatsresultingfromphysicalforcingandtherebycanserveassentinelstoecosystemshifts(Mooreetal2014MooreandGulland2014)ResponsesofUTLspeciestoalteredhabitatscanbe categorizedasextrinsicincludingshiftsinrangemigratorytiming(phenology)orregionsofhighabundance(hotspots)orintrinsicincludingchangesindietbodyconditionand chemicalcomposition(Fig5)

Figure)5)Marine)birds)and)mammals)are)upper)trophic)level)(UTL))species)that)reflect)ecosystem) alterations)by)changes)in)habitat)use)(extrinsic))and)body)condition)(intrinsic))revealing)fundamental) changes)in)marine)ecosystems)

Responsesareinter0relatedsuchthatashiftinrangephenologyoruseofhotspotswillbe reflectedinchangesindietbodyconditionandchemistryItisthisconnectionthatallowsus

27

todetectecosystemreorganizationbytrackingchangesintheecologyandphysiologyofUTL speciesAlthoughtherehavebeennocoordinatedlong0termstudiesofUTLspeciesinthe PacificArcticexaminingthisconnectionasynthesisofinformationfromvisualsurveyssatellitetaggingofindividualsandyear0roundacousticdetectionsprovidesanecological foundationthatcanprovideabaselinetoinformfutureinvestigations

41Seasonaloccurrencehotspothabitatsandacousticecology

Kuletzetal(2015)depictspatialpatternsofrelativeabundanceofseabirdsandmarinemammalsinsummerandfallderivedfromsixyearsofvisualsurveysintheeasternChukchi andwesternBeaufortseasUsingstatisticalspatialanalysistoolshotspotsforseabirdswalrusandgraywhaleswereidentifiedintheChukchiSeawhilehotspotsforbowheadwhalesandsealsweredescribednearBarrowCanyonandalongtheBeaufortSeashelfand slopeHotspotsforbelugasoccurredinboththeChukchiandBeaufortseasInsummerthreehotspotsweresharedbybothseabirdsandmarinemammalsintheChukchiSeawaters offshoreWainwrightsouthofHannaShoalandatthemouthofBarrowCanyonOnlytheBarrowCanyonhotspotwasoccupiedthroughthefallSharedhotspotswerecharacterized bystrongfrontscausedbyupwellingandcurrentswhichcanservetoaggregatepreyUsingadifferentapproachCittaetal(2015)providedetailedanalysisoftheseasonalmovementsandhabitatusebyasinglespeciesthroughoutoneyearLocationsfrom54bowheadwhales (Balaenamysticetus)obtainedbysatellitetelemetryfrom200602012wereusedtoidentifya totalofsixcore0useareasintheBeaufort(3)Chukchi(1)andnorthernBering(2)seas Takentogetherthetimingofuse(phenology)andphysicalcharacteristics(oceanographyseaiceandwinds)associatedwitheachareadescribeaseasonalcircuitbythewhalesthroughareasthoughttosupportelevatedpreydensities

Passiveacousticsamplinghasbecomeacommonyear0roundtooltodetectcallingmarine mammalsinarcticseas(Mooreetal2006Staffordetal2012)Since2007therehasbeenanespeciallystrongsamplingeffortassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationinthenortheast ChukchiandwesternBeaufortseas(egHannayetal2013 httpwwwafscnoaagovnmmlcetaceanchaozphp)Theserecorderdeployments augmentalong0standingacousticstudyinthecentralBeaufortSea(Blackwelletal2007)andmorerecentdeploymentsintheBeringStraitregion(KStaffordperscomm)HeretoforeresearchersconductedeachofthesestudiesindependentlyofoneanotherClark etal(2015)presentsanovelsynthesisofthecombinedoutputfromsixresearcheffortsusingfourtypesofrecordersandavarietyofsub0samplingandanalysisschemestodescribean lsquoacousticyearrsquointhelifeofthebowheadwhaleDetectionsofbowheadcallsfrom20sitesextendingover2300kmfromthenorthernBeringSeatothesoutheastBeaufortSeawere combinedovera140monthperiod(200902010)todescribewhaleoccurrenceacrosstheir rangeThespatialandtemporalvariabilityinsoundlevelswithinthefrequencybandofbowheadwhaleswasalsoquantifiedThelowestunderwatersoundlevelsoccurredfromlate NovemberuntilMayintheChukchiSeaDuringwinter200902010singingbowheadwhaleselevatedbroadbandsoundlevelsforroughly38daysinthenorthernBeringSeafollowedby

28

asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

29

ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

31

Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

32

(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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46

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47

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FeelyRADoneySCCooleySR2009Oceanacidificationpresentconditionsandfuture changesinahigh0CO2worldOceanography2236047

FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015DivergentpatternsofrecentseaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049

GeorgeJCBadaJZehJScottLBrownSEOharaTampSuydamR1999Ageandgrowthestimatesofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)viaasparticacid racemizationCanadianJournalofZoology775710580

GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgress inOceanography1362500262

GilesKALaxonSWRidoutALWinghamDJBaconS2012WesternArcticOceanfreshwaterstorageincreasedbywind0drivenspin0upoftheBeaufortGyreNature Geoscience51940197

GrebmeierJMOverlandJEMooreSEFarleyEVCarmackECCooperLWFreyKEHelleJHMcLaughlinFAMcNuttSL2006AmajorecosystemshiftinthenorthernBeringSeaScience311146101464

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GrebmeierJMMooreSE Overland JEFrey KEandGradinger R2010BiologicalresponsetorecentPacificArcticseaiceretreatsEOS91(18)1610168

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GrebmeierJMCooperLWAshjianCABluhmBACampbellRBDuntonKEMooreJ OkkonenSSheffieldGTrefryJPasternakSY2015cPacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(PacMARS)FinalReportNorthPacificResearchBoard259pp

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HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015Change intheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

HillVArdynaMLeeSHVarelaDEinpressDecadaltrendsinphytoplankton productioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

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MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

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OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

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SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

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52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Moore

TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

Mathis

UsinganEnvironmentalIntelligenceFrameworktoEvaluatetheImpactsof

OceanAcidificationintheArctic

ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

26(Jan(2017(

Moore

The

Arc

tic M

arin

e Pu

lses

Mod

el l

inki

ng a

nnua

l oce

anog

raph

ic p

roce

sses

toco

ntig

uous

eco

logi

cal d

omai

ns in

the

Paci

fic A

rctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

24(Jan(2017(

VanPelt

Synt

hesi

s of A

rctic

Res

earc

h (S

OA

R) ndash

Phy

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to m

arin

e m

amm

als i

n th

e Pa

cific

Arc

tic P

hase

II

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22(Apr(2017(

Moore

The

Synt

hesi

s of A

rctic

Res

earc

h (S

OA

R) P

rogr

am in

the

Paci

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Sec

tor

Inte

rnat

iona

l Con

fere

nce

on A

rctic

Scie

nce

Res

ton

VA

(

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(

60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 2: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

DISCLAIMER))

ThisstudywasfundedinpartbytheUSDepartmentoftheInteriorBureauofOceanEnergyManagementEnvironmentalStudiesProgramWashingtonDCthrough InteragencyAgreementNumberM11PG00034withtheUSDepartmentofCommerceNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministrationOfficeofOceanicandAtmospheric ResearchThisreporthasbeentechnicallyreviewedbyBOEMandithasbeenapprovedforpublicationTheviewsandconclusionscontainedinthisdocumentarethoseoftheauthorsandshouldnotbeinterpretedasrepresentingtheopinionsorpoliciesoftheUS Governmentnordoesmentionoftradenamesorcommercialproductsconstituteendorsementorrecommendationforuse)

)

REPORT)AVAILABILITY)

TodownloadaPDFfileofthisAlaskaOCSRegionreportgototheUSDepartmentoftheInteriorBureauofOceanEnergyManagementEnvironmentalStudiesProgram InformationSystemwebsiteandsearchonOCSStudyBOEM20180017

ThisreportcanbeviewedatselectFederalDepositoryLibrariesItcanalsobeobtainedfromtheNationalTechnicalInformationServicethecontactinformationisbelow

USDepartmentofCommerceNationalTechnicalInformationService 5301ShawneeRd SpringfieldVA22312Phone(703)605060001(800)55306847 Fax(703)60506900 Websitehttpwwwntisgov

)

CITATION)

MooreSEStabenoPJSheffieldGuyLMVanPeltTI2018SynthesisofArctic Research(SOAR)PhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArcticUSDeptoftheInteriorBureauofOceanEnergyManagementAlaskaOCSRegionAnchorageOCSStudy BOEM2018001761pp

2

Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR))

Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)mdash)June)13)2018)

Prepared)forEnvironmentalStudiesProgramAlaskaOuterContinentalShelfRegionBureauofOceanEnergyManagement3801CenterpointDriveSuite500 AnchorageAlaska99503

Authors) DrSueEMoore DrPhyllisJStabeno NMFSScienceampTechnology OARPacificMarineEnvironmentalLaboratory 7600SandPointWayNE 7600SandPointWayNE SeattleWA98115 SeattleWA98115 SueMoorenoaagov PhyllisStabenonoaagov 206052606889 206052606453 LisaSheffieldGuy ThomasVanPelt ARCUS UWJISAO 3535CollegeRoadSuite101 7600SandPointWayNE FairbanksAlaska99709 SeattleWA98115lisaarcusorg thomasvanpeltnoaagov 907047401600 907024207725

Project)Status))) ) Completed Start)date) 20May2011 End)date) ) 15June2018 Project)Duration 7years

3

Contents)

ListofFiguresv

ListofTablesv

Introduction6 Background7

Objectivesandmethods10 Objectives10 Methods10 Taskframework10 Taskdetail11 SOARPhase1andSOARPhase213

Results13 FoundationaltasksSciencesteeringcommitteeandworkshop13 TheSOARSciencesteeringcommittee13 SOARWorkshopndashMarch201214

Scienceproductandcommunicationtasks16 Peer0reviewedpublicationsmdashPhase1 16Peer0reviewedpublicationsmdashPhase2 18presentationsandpostersatscientificmeetings20 Othercommunicationofsynthesisapproachandproducts 20

Synthesissummaryanddiscussion20 SOARPhaseI20 SOARPhaseII34 OverallSOARContextandconclusion44

Literaturecited46

AppendixAndashListofSOAR2012workshopattendees54

AppendixBndashListofSOARcontributorsandinstitutions56

AppendixCndashListofSOARcontributorpresentationsatscientificmeetingsworkshopsandwebinars58

4

List)of)Figures)

Figure1Mapofstudyareashowingprincipalcurrents(redlines)andmeansea0icemaximum (spring)andminimum(fall)extent(MooreandStabeno2015)7

Figure2CoverofthefirstSOARspecialissueProgressinOceanographyVol13616

Figure3HighlightsofrecentbiophysicalchangesinthePacificArcticmarineecosystem21

Figure4Generalizedconceptualmodeldepictingtheinfluenceofseaiceonpelagic0benthiccoupling onPacificArcticcontinentalshelves24

Figure5Marinebirdsandmammalsareuppertrophiclevel(UTL)speciesthatreflectecosystem alterationsbychangesinhabitatuse(extrinsic)andbodycondition(intrinsic)revealing fundamentalchangesinmarineecosystems27

Figure6ComponentsoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelndashlinkingpelagic0benthic couplingandadvectivemodelstoderiveaseasonalmodelforthePacificArcticframedby contiguousdomains32

Figure7TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodeldepictingseasonalbiophysicalpulsesin threeecologicaldomainsacrossalatitudinalgradientoverthecourseofanannualcycleinthe PacificArcticregion(MooreandStabeno2015)33

Figure8Paperscomprisingtheforthcoming20182ndSOARspecialissue(tobepublishedinDeep0 SeaResearchPartII)identifiedbyleadauthorandorganizedbyecologicaldomainsthatframe theArcticMarinePulsesmodel(Mooreetalinpress)35

List)of)Tables)

Table1ListofScienceSteeringCommitteemembersandinstitutions13

Table2ListofSOARSSCTeleconferencesandin0personmeetings14

Table3Papersincludedinthe2015SOARspecialissueofProgressinOceanography17

Table4PaperstoappearintheSOAR2ndPhasespecialissueinDeepSeaResearchPartII18

5

INTRODUCTION)

ChangestothephysicalenvironmentoftheUSArcticOuterContinentalShelf(OCS)aredrivingshiftsinthedistributionandbehaviorofanumberofprotectedmarinemammalspeciesthatinhabitthosewatersThesamespeciesmaybeaffectedbyoilandgasactivities withinOCSPlanningAreaswithstrongpotentialfordeleteriousinteractionsbetweennaturalandhumaninducedphenomenaEnvironmentalregulations(egNEPAtheESAandthe MMPA)requiretheBureauofOceanEnergyManagement(BOEM)toevaluatewhetherand howfederalactionsassociatedwithoilandgasdevelopmentmayaffecttheseprotectedspeciesandthemarineenvironmentonwhichtheydependInformationonoceancirculation andhydrographyisusefulfortheseevaluationsaswellasforinputintomodelsusedtopredicttheoutcomeofoilspillsHoweverphysicsalonecannotpredicthowprotected speciesandthemarineecosystemsuponwhichtheydependwillrespondtonaturalandanthropogenicforcingGivenrecentinvestmentsbyBOEMotherfederalagencies(egNOAA USGSNSF)andtheoilandgasindustryininterdisciplinarybiologicalandoceanographicresearchinthePacificArcticregion(PAR)asynthesisofresultsofcompletedandongoingstudieswillhelptoinformmanagementdecision0makersandtoguidefutureresearch activities

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)PhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArcticprojectprovidesaframeworkforasynthesisofscientificinformationdrawnfromcompleted andongoingmarineresearchinthePacificArcticregionTheSOARprojectaimstoincreasescientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsbenthicorganismslowertrophicpreyspecies(foragefishandzooplankton)andmarinemammal distributionandbehaviorinthePARwithparticularemphasisonthenortheasternChukchiSeaSOARfurtheraimstoenhanceourcapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographic featuressuchascurrentsupwellingandiceleadsandassociatedchangesinthebehaviorof marinemammalsandtheirpreyintheregionandtoeffectivelytransmitfindingsofsynthesis activitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArcticresidentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

InthisreportweprovidedetailonthebackgroundmethodsandresultsoftheSOARprojectandsummarizethescientificoutcomesacrossthefirstandsecondphasesofSOAR

6

BACKGROUND

ThePacificArcticregioncompriseswatersnorthofStMatthewIsland(60degNlatitude)inthenorthernBeringChukchiBeaufortandEastSiberianseas(Grebmeieretal2010)Theregionisanin0flowsystemtotheArctic(Carmacketal2006)withthreedistinctwater massesflowingnorththroughBeringStraitthenbathymetricallychanneledacrosstheChukchiSeashelfandintotheBeaufortSeabasin(Fig1)Theannualadvanceandretreatof seaiceisthekeyphysicaldriverofprimaryproductiontrophicinteractionsandhumanaccessandactivitiesovertheentirePARThephysicalclimateofthePARischangingrapidlydrivingchangeacrosstheregionalmarineecosystems(GrebmeierandMaslowski2014)

Figure)1))Map)of)study)area)showing)principal)currents)(red)lines))and)mean)seaVice)maximum)(spring)) and)minimum)(fall))extent)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

Thesummerminimumsea0iceextentin2007and2008coveredanareathatwas37less thanthearealcoverageoftwodecadespriorand20lessthanthepreviousminimumcoveragein2005(Stroeveetal2008)Thepaceofthesechangeswasunexpectedasthe consensusoftheclimateresearchcommunitywasthatsuchchangeswouldnotbeseenfor

7

another30years(WangandOverland2009)Thereductioninsea0iceareaopensupvastnew regionsoftheArcticOceantoincreasedabsorptionofsunlightandstorageofheatThisheat isreturnedtotheatmosphereinthefollowingautumnresultinginincreasedArctic temperaturesofmorethan5degCextendingthesea0icefreeseasonthroughNovemberandcausingchangesinwindpatternsThesephysicalchangestotheArcticsystemappeartobe irreversible

Marinemammalsrespondtochangesinseaiceaccordingtotheirdependencyonitforvitallifefunctions(MooreandHuntington2008Kovacsetal2010)InthePARthedramaticchangesinseasonalsea0iceextentandtypeappeartohaveprecipitatedchangesinmarine mammalmigrationandfeedingpatternsForexamplelargeaggregationsofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)feedroutinelynearBarrowfromlatesummerthroughautumna phenomenonpreviouslyconsideredlsquosporadicrsquo(Mooreetal2010)Graywhales(Eschrichtius robustus)consideredatemperatespeciescommonlyfeednearthebowheadwhaleswhereas thetwospeciesappearedtobespatiallyandtemporallysegregatedintheearly1980s(Mooreetal1986)

Inadditiontothechangesinmarinemammalecologyanorthwardshiftofsomefishspecies(egSpencer2008MueterandLitzow2008RandandLogerwell2010)andtheprevalenceof euphausiids(Thysanoessaspp)indicatedthatthetrophicstructureofthePARischangingEuphausiidsareimportantpreyforbowheadandgraywhales(Ashjianetal2010Bluhmet al2007)andpossiblyalsoforicesealsEuphausiidsarethoughttobetransportedintothe PARfromthenorthernBeringSeaasreproductionhasneverbeenobservedinwatersnorthofBeringStrait(Berlineetal2008)Coupledtothisisthegeneraldearthofinformationon distributionandabundanceofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)inthePARaspeciesconsideredessentialintheshorttrophicfoodwebscommontopolarmarineecosystems(Ainleyand DeMaster1990)Examinationandsynthesisofhownaturalandhuman0associated environmentalvariabilityimpactsmarinemammalsrequiresinvestigationofthebiophysical changestotrophicstructureanddynamicsoftheirfishandinvertebrateprey

During200502015BOEMmadeextensiveinvestmentsinmarinemammalandrelated oceanographicstudiesintheeasternhalfofthePAR(ietheInternationalDateLineeastto theCanadianBeaufort)Datafromthosestudieswillconsiderablyaugmentthebodyof knowledgefortheregionbutinterpretationwouldbeconstrainedifresultsarenot integratedwithotherresearcheffortsAddressingthisintegrationwasthegenesisofthe SOARprojecttoundertakesynthesisofresearchfromongoingBOEMstudiesinthePARwhichincludebutarenotlimitedtothefollowing

bull BowheadWhaleFeedingVariabilityintheWesternAlaskanBeaufortSeaSatelliteTrackingofBowheadWhaleMovementsFeedingampOceanography

bull PassiveAcousticDetectionandMonitoringofEndangeredWhalesintheArctic

8

bull EcosystemObservationsintheChukchiSeaBiophysicalMooringandClimateModeling

bull ChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea(COMIDA)ChemistryandBenthos

bull DistributionandRelativeAbundanceofMarineMammalsCOMIDAAerialSurveys

bull HannaShoalEcosystemStudy

bull MonitoringtheDistributionofArcticWhales(alsoknownasBWASP)

bull WalrusHabitatUseinthePotentialDrillingArea

bull PinnipedMovementsandForagingBeardedSeals

bull AssessingReproductionandBodyConditionoftheRingedSealnearSachsHarbourNorthwestTerritoryCanadathroughaHarvest0basedSamplingProgram

bull ArcticmarineresearchstudiessupportedthroughNationalOceanPartnership Program(NOPP)towhichBOEMcontributes

bull StudiesconductedbytheAlaskaDepartmentofFishandGame(ADFampG)andtheNorthSlopeBorough(NSB)underBOEMrsquosCoastalImpactAssistanceProgram(CIAP)

Dataandresultsfromrelated(butnotBOEM0funded)studiesthatalsocontributetotheSOAR includebutarenotlimitedtothefollowing

bull NOAArsquosRUSALCAprogram(USA0RussiabilateralstudyoftheChukchiSea)

bull StudiessupportedbyNSFOfficeofPolarPrograms

bull StudiessupportedbytheLandscapeConservationCooperativeNetwork

bull StudiessupportedbytheAlaskaDepartmentofFishampGametheUSGeologicalSurveyandbytheUSFishampWildlifeService

bull Studiessupportedbyoilandgasindustry(egShellConocoPhillipsStatOilBritishPetroleum)relatedtomitigationandmonitoringofeffectsofoffshoreexplorationanddevelopmentonmarinemammalsandtheirenvironmentegtheChukchiSea EnvironmentalStudiesProgram(CSESP)

)

)

)

9

OBJECTIVES)AND)METHODS)

)

OBJECTIVES

)

TheSOARprojectfocusedonthreeobjectives

1 Increasescientificunderstandingoftheinter0andintra0relationshipsofoceanographicconditionsbenthicorganismslowertrophicpreyspecies(foragefishand zooplankton)andmarinemammaldistributionandbehaviorinthePARwithparticularemphasisontheChukchiSealeaseareas

2 Enhancecapabilitytopredictchangesinoceanographicfeaturessuchascurrents upwellingandiceleadsandassociatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARwithparticularemphasisonthenortheasternChukchiSea

3 EffectivelytransmitfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

)

METHODS

TASKFRAMEWORK

TheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojectwastouseavailableanalyticalandmodelingapproachestoidentifyandtesthypothesesthatcrossscientificdisciplinesSOARprovidesa frameworktosupportasynthesisofscientificinformationdrawnfromcompletedandongoingmarineresearchinthePacificArcticregionTheframeworkconsistsofsixtasks

1 establishaScienceSteeringCommitteetoprovideleadershipandoversightforthe synthesisproject

2 conductaSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)WorkshopinvolvingPIsfromall relevantresearchprogramsto

i identifyanddevelopsciencesynthesisthemesii detailrequireddataandanalysesforeachtheme iii formAnalyticalTeamstosupporttheworkofeachsynthesisthemeiv listanticipatedworkproducts(iepeer0reviewedpapersandpresentations)

and

10

v deriveameanstoarchivedataandmeta0datausedinsupportofthesynthesis 3 supportAnalyticalTeamdataintegrationandanalysisincludingtheme0based

meetingsasneeded 4 trackprogressofanalyticalworkviabi0monthlyteleconferencesandannualSCCAT0

updateworkshops 5 producescienceproductsincludingpresentationsatprofessionalmeetingsand

publicationofpeer0reviewedpapersasaSpecialIssueamporThemeSectionsinanappropriatescientificjournaland

6 communicatesynthesisapproachandfindingstolocalArcticresidentsresourcemanagersnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

TASKDETAIL

TASK)1)))ESTABLISH)AND)CONVENE)SCIENTIFIC)STEERING)COMMITTEE)

LeadershipandguidanceofthesynthesisprojectwasprovidedbyaScienceSteeringCommittee(SSC)formedofseniorscientistswithdecades0longexperienceinthePacific ArcticAttheinitialSSCmeetingthegroupidentifiedrelevantprojectsdeveloped provisionalsciencethemesandidentifiedpotentialparticipantsandleadersfor interdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeamsformedatthesubsequentSOARWorkshop

TASK)2)))PLAN)AND)CONDUCT)SOAR)WORKSHOP)

Amulti0disciplinarySOARWorkshopwasthekeystoneinitialproductofSOARWorkshop participantsinventoriedavailabledataandevaluateditssufficiencytoaddressspecificcross0 disciplinaryhypothesesandquestionsprovisionallyidentifiedassciencethemesbytheSSCTheprovisionallistofthemeswasmodifiedandnewthemesemergedattheworkshopOnce sciencethemeswereagreeduponinterdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeams(AT)wereformedto conductthecoreworkoftheSOARprojectInterdisciplinaryATstheninitiatedthe developmentofshortproposalstosupporttheworkrequiredfordataintegrationanalyses andormodeling

TASK)3))SUPPORT)DATA)INTEGRATION)ANALYSIS)AND)MODELING

Inresponsetoproposalsdetailingtheworktobeperformedtimelineandproducts anticipatedmdashandincoordinationwithSSCreviewmdashfundingwasprovidedviacontractfor selectedATstointegratedataconductanalysesrunmodelsandordeveloppublicationsInsomecasesdirectfundingwasnotneededandin0kindsupportwasprovidedintheformofreviewcoordinationandpublicationfacilitationAsubsetofATsintegratedtheirworkwith

11

on0goingoceanographicprograms(egRUSALCAandtheDistributedBiologicalObservatory[DBO])andinsomecasestheATsconductedfollow0ontheme0basedmeetingsorintegrativeworkshopsasthebestmeanstoaccomplishdataintegrationandsynthesisontheirtopic OtherATschosetointegratetheirworkviavideoorteleconferenceswiththebulkofcontract fundinggoingtowardssupportforagraduatestudentpost0docorotherresearcherto accomplishthesynthesistasksidentified)

TASK)4))TRACK)PROGRESS)OF)ANALYTICAL)WORK)

ATleadshadprimaryresponsibilityfortrackingtheprogressofworkontheirsciencethemeandmembersoftheSSCwerealsoaskedtofollowtheprogressoftheworktowardsuseful productsTrackingtooktheformofcontactatregularintervals(egbimonthly)viae0mailorphonesolicitingspecificinformationonproblemsencounteredandadherencetotimelineforproductcompletionSummariesofprogressoneachthemeappearedinQuarterlyReportsto theBOEM

TASK)5))SCIENCE)PRODUCTS))

ThecoreproductoftheSOARprojectwasaseriesofsciencepresentationsandpeer0reviewedpapersdescribingcurrentandprojectedstatusofthePARmarineecosystemAnnual presentationsontheapproachandprogressoftheSOARwereprovidedatplenarysessionsof theAlaskaMarineScienceSymposiumandadditionalpresentationsweremadeatother sciencevenuessuchastheAGUOceanSciencesmeetingSciencepaperswerethenpublishedinspecialissuesofpeer0reviewedjournalswiththeprojectPIsandcoordinatorservingas GuestEditors

TASK)6))COMMUNICATION)OF)SYNTHESIS)APPROACH)amp)PRODUCTS)

Inadditiontosciencepapersandpresentationsresultsofthesyntheseswereprovidedto communitiesinelectronicandhardcopyformatandopportunitiestospeakwithArcticresidentsweresoughtatco0managementmeetingsandotherforaAwebsitewasdeveloped providinggraphicsandbriefsummariesforgeneraluseandlinkingtootherrelevantsitesResultsofthesynthesiswerecommunicatedtovariousnationalandinternationalArctic Programs(egNOAAArcticReportCardSEARCHISACPAGIASCandArcticCouncilWorkingGroups)

12

SOARPHASE1ANDSOARPHASE2

Task5(ScienceProducts)wasoriginallyenvisagedtoresultinaspecialvolumeofpeer0reviewedpaperspossiblysupplementedbyanadditionalsmallersetofpapersinatheme sectionorothersimilaroutletHoweverfollowingcompletionofthefirstphaseofSOARculminatinginthe2015specialissueofProgressinOceanography(MooreandStabeno2015 seeResultssectionbelowformoreinformation)therewasahighlevelofinterestinextendingSOARtoincludeadditionalsynthesisThereforethesecondphaseofSOARwas developedbuildingfromaninformalmid0projectworkshopandresultinginasecondfullspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchIIFurtherdetailisprovidedinthefollowingsections

RESULTS)

FOUNDATIONALTASKSSCIENCESTEERINGCOMMITTEEANDWORKSHOP

THESOARSCIENCESTEERINGCOMMITTEE

AScienceSteeringCommittee(SCC)comprisedofscientistsandAlaskancoastalcommunityrepresentativeswasestablished(Table1)ThefirstoffiveannualSSCmeetingswasheldfrom103November2011attheWatertownHotelinSeattleWATheSSCidentifiedrelevantprojects anddatasourcesdevelopedthreedraftsciencethemesandrelatedquestionsandidentified potentialparticipantsandleadersforassociatedinterdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeamsthatwould beformedatSOARScienceWorkshopMultiplesubsequentmeetingsfurtherdevelopedthe sciencethemesandprovidedguidanceforSOARtasks(Table2)

)

Table)1))List)of)Science)Steering)Committee)members)and)institutions)

ScienceSteeringCommitteeMember

Affiliation Location

RobynAngliss NOAANationalMarineMammalLaboratory

SeattleWA

CarinAshjian WoodsHoleOceanographic Institution

WoodsHoleMA

ChristopherClark CornellUniversity IthacaNY

13

JacquelineGrebmeier UniversityofMarylandCenterforEnvironmental Studies

SolomonsMD

CraigGeorge NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EskimoWhaling

ComissionKawerak NomeAK

SueMoore NOAANMFS SeattleWA ChadJay USGeologicalSurvey AnchorageAK TimRagan MarineMammalCommission WashingtonDC PhyllisStabeno NOAAPMEL SeattleWA RobertSuydam NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK TomWeingartner UniversityofAlaska0

Fairbanks FairbanksAK

)

Table)2)List)of)SOAR)SSC)Teleconferences)and)inVperson)meetings)

SOAR)SSC)Meeting) SSCTeleconference1

Date) 21September2011

SSCTeleconference2 18October2011 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingSeattleWA 11November2011 SSCTeleconference3 16February2012 SSCTeleconference4 6April2012 SOARMarchWorkshop 14016March2012 SSCTeleconference5 6July2012 SSCTeleconference6 6October2012 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 21January2013 SSCTeleconference7) 9April2013 SSCTeleconference8) 14November2013 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 20January2014 SSCTeleconference9) 12January2015 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 23January2015 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK(informal)) 26January2016

SOARWORKSHOPndashMARCH2012

TheSOARScienceWorkshopwasheldfrom14016March2012attheEganCenterinAnchorageAlaskaTheSOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandProjectCoordinatorallmembersoftheScienceSteeringCommitteeand42ofthe43invitedSOARContributorsattendedthe

14

workshopDraftScienceThemesandQuestionsdevelopedbytheSOARScienceSteeringCommitteewereprovidedtoparticipantsinadvanceoftheworkshopsummarizedas(i)EcosystemResponsetoBottom0upandorTop0downForcing(ii)MarineBirdsMammalsandFishasEcosystemSentinelsand(iii)AcousticEcology

TheprimarygoalsoftheScienceWorkshopwereto(1)refinetheDraftScienceThemesandQuestions(2)formresearchteamstoundertakeanalysisinsupportofdevelopmentofpeer0reviewedpapersand(3)developshortproposalstoidentifyprojectmilestonesandfinancialsupportrequiredtocompletesyntheticprojects

DayoneoftheworkshopconsistedofdisciplinarytalksinplenarysessiontoprovideallparticipantswiththecurrentstateofknowledgeineachareaofstudyDuringdaytwooftheworkshopsciencethemeswererevisedtoreflectgroupinputParticipantsdividedintothree theme0basedbreakoutgroupsandbegandevelopingsciencequestionstoproposeforSOARDaythreeoftheworkshopbeganwithaplenarysummaryofthepreviousdayrsquosprogress followedbybreakoutgroupstowriteandsubmitone0pageproposalsfortheprojects requestingfundingOntheafternoonofthethirddayanopen0sessionwasheldto communicateworkshopprogresstoBOEMscientistsandmanagerscolleaguesfromtheNorthPacificResearchBoardandAlaskaOceanObservingSystemindustryrepresentativesand otherinterestedpartiesFurtherdetailsoftheSOARWorkshopcanbefoundintheSOAR WorkshopReport(SheffieldGuyetal2012a)andseealsoSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)

15

SCIENCEPRODUCTANDCOMMUNICATIONTASKS

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE1 FollowingtheinitialSOARthemeselectionsandteamdevelopmentandincorporatinganextensivepeer0reviewphaseledbytheprojectPIsandcoordinatorthefirstphaseofthe SOARprojectculminatedinaspecialvolumeofProgressinOceanographypublishedinAugust 2015(Fig2Table3)Thisspecialissueincluded16fullpapersplusanintroductionpaper authoredbythetwoprojectPIs

Figure)2)Cover)of)the)first)SOAR)special) volume)published)in)Progress)in)

Oceanography)in)2015)

16

Table)3))Papers)included)in)the)2015)SOAR)special)issue)of)Progress)in)Oceanography)

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsofthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011 WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressinOceanography13612031 FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015Divergentpatternsofrecent seaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049 WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059 ArrigoKRvanDijkenGL2015ContinuedincreasesinArcticOceanprimaryproductionProgressinOceanography13660070 MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJNFeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091 GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarkeJTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSHLovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015EcosystemcharacteristicsandprocessesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114 LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132 CrawfordJAQuakenbushLTCittaJJ2015Acomparisonofringedandbeardedsealdietconditionandproductivitybetweenhistorical(1975ndash1984)andrecent(2003ndash2012)periodsintheAlaskanBeringandChukchiseasProgressinOceanography1361330150 DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarctic seaiceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161 LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015LimitstobenthicfeedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchangingseaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174 KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015SeasonalspatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareas ProgressinOceanography1361750200 CittaJJQuakenbushLTOkkonenSRDruckenmillerMLMaslowskiWClement0KinneyJGeorgeJCBrowerHSmallRJAshjianCJHarwoodLAHeide0Joslashrgensen MP2015Ecologicalcharacteristicsofcore0useareasusedbyBeringndashChukchindashBeaufort(BCB)bowheadwhales2006ndash2012ProgressinOceanography1362010222

17

ClarkCWBerchokCLBlackwellSBHannayDEJonesJPonirakisDStafford KM2015AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasProgressinOceanography1362230240 MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationshipbetweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249 GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgressinOceanography1362500262 HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015ChangeintheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE2

Followingthe2015publicationofthefirstSOARspecialissueinProgressinOceanography theSOARprojectSSCandparticipantsdecidedtopursuecoordinatethepublicationofasetofpapersinfullsecondspecialissueThosePhase2topicsandpaperleadswerediscussedat theannualSOARSSCmeetinginJanuary2015Baseduponsuggestionsatthismeeting102pageproposalswererequestedfromsuggestedpaperleadsandproposalswerethen subsequentlydevelopedintopublishedpapersThemajorityofpapersforthesecondspecial issuewerecompletedandinpressbytheendof2017(Table4)withfinalpublicationofthe completespecialissueinDeepSeaResearchIIndashTopicalStudiesinOceanographyexpectedby latesummer2018

Table)4))Papers)to)appear)in)the)SOAR)2nd)Phase)special)issue)published)in)Deep)Sea)Research)Part)II)

Corresponding) Author Manuscript)Title

SueMoore IntroductionTheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)Project

MuyinWang SeaiceandoceancharacteristicsintheChukchiSeabyselectedCMIP5modelsthepresentandthefuture

NicholasBond DiagnosisofphysicaloceanographiceventsintheChukchiSea usinganoceanreanalysis

VictoriaHill DecadaltrendsinphytoplanktonproductioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

18

JessicaCross FormationandtransportofcorrosivewaterinthePacificArcticRegion

LeeCooper DepositionpatternsontheChukchiShelfusingradionuclide inventoriesinrelationtosurfacesedimentcharacteristics

Matthew Druckenmiller

Trendsinsea0icecoverandupwellingpotentialwithinBowheadwhaleuseareasintheWesternArctic

KateStafford AcousticecologyofbowheadandbelugawhalesincoreuseareasintheBeaufortandChukchiSeas

JohnCitta Oceanographiccharacteristicsassociatedwithbowheadwhale movementsintheChukchiSea

JohnCitta SeasonaldistributionandoverlapofmarinemammalsintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseas

KimberlyRand UsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

ElizabethLogerwell Environmentaldriversofbenthicfishdistributioninandaround BarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwesternBeaufortSea

KathleenStafford BelugawhalesintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaasynthesisofavailableinformationontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StephenOkkonen Relationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskanBeaufortSea

MartinRobards UnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesintheAlaskanArcticPlace0basedcollaborationswithAlaskaNative communities

SueMoore TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)ModellinkingtemporalprocessestocontiguousdomainsinthePacificArctic

19

PRESENTATIONSANDPOSTERSATSCIENTIFICMEETINGS

SOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandcontributorsmademorethan50presentationsincludinginformationaboutthissynthesiseffortatavarietyofscientificmeetingsworkshopsandwebinarsAfulllistofthesepresentationsisprovidedinAppendixC

OTHERCOMMUNICATIONOFSYNTHESISAPPROACHANDPRODUCTS

TheSynthesisofArcticResearchwebsitelocatedathttpswwwpmelnoaagovsoar providesbackgroundinformationandup0to0datescienceproductinformationtostakeholders andthegeneralpublicThewebsitewillcontinuetobeliveandhostedbyNOAA

Severalpeer0reviewedpaperswerepublishedthatalsoappealtoamoregeneralortrans0 disciplineaudienceincludingSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)andSheffieldGuyetal(2016)SOARsynthesisresultswerefeaturedinnumerousnewspapersonlinefeaturesmagazines andmore

SYNTHESIS)SUMMARY)AND)DISCUSSION)

SOARPHASEI

ThefirstphaseofSOARresultedinfifteenpaperspublishedinaspecialissueofProgressin Oceanographyin2015(Table3)HereweprovideabroadoverviewanddiscussionofthepapersinthatspecialissuedrawnfromtheIntroductiontothatissue(MooreandStabeno 2015)

1 Introduction)

TheinitiationoftheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)projectcoincidedwiththerecognitionthatbiophysicalchangesinthePacificArcticregionweresoextremecomparedtotherecentpastthattheyacquiredthemonikerlsquonewnormalrsquo(Jeffriesetal2013) ConsequentlydescribingthebiophysicalpropertiesofthelsquonewlsquoPacificArcticmarineecosystemwasfoundationaltotheSOAReffortandthefocusoffivepapersinthefirstspecial issueExaminingbiologicalresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingthenbecamethetaskofresearchersfocusedonthestudyoflowertrophiclevel(LTL)communitiesanduppertrophiclevel(UTL)speciesTwopapersprovideintegratedresultsfromdirectsamplingofbenthic andfishcommunitieswhilethreepapersreportonchangesinLTLspeciesoccurrenceinferredbyshiftsinthedietsofsealsandmarinebirdsSixpapersfocusonUTLspecieswith fourpresentinginformationonseasonaloccurrenceinhotspotorcore0usehabitatsandtwo describingvariabilityinmarinemammalbodyconditioninthecontextofdecadal0scale

20

environmentalvariabilityTogetherthesepapersprovideasyntheticcontexttofocushypothesesunderpinningthenextdecadeofresearchinthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

2)Biophysics)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

ThePacificArcticmarineecosystemiscomprisedofinflowshelves(northernBeringandChukchiseas)coupledtointeriorshelves(EastSiberianandBeaufortseas)withthe contrastingbiophysicsofthesedomainssummarizedinCarmacketal(2006)Circulationon bothinflowandinteriorshelvesislinkedtopan0arcticteleconnectionmechanisms(egArcticOscillation)withinteriorshelvesalsostronglyinfluencedbytheseasonaloutflowof relativelywarmfreshwaterfromarcticriversEvaluatingecosystemstatusandtrendsinthePacificArcticwasthefocusofarecentbookwith10(of12)chaptersdevotedtoobservationsandmodelingoftheatmosphereoceanphysicsandchemistry(GrebmeierandMaslowski 2014)Thepapersinthefirstspecialissueaddtothatbodyofknowledgeespeciallywithregardtobiologicalresponsestobiophysicaldriversandinthiswaycontributetoamore holisticunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

21)PhysicalobservationsandopenwaterprojectionsinthelsquonewnormalrsquoPacificArctic

Recentobservations(200302013)ofenvironmentalchangesinthePacificArcticsupportthecontentionthatanewnormalclimateisemerging(Fig3Jeffriesetal2013Woodetal 2015)

Figure)3))Highlights)of)recent)biophysical)changes)in)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

21

Theiconicindicatorofthischangeisthedramaticsummertimelossofseaice(50byarea75byvolume)whichinsomeyears(eg2012)hasresultedinnearlyice0freeconditionsin theregionSpecificallysatellitedatafrom197902012reveallocalizedchangesinsea0ice occurrenceofupto0164daysyearintheCanadaBasinand0124daysyearintheBeaufort Seawhichacceleratedto0657daysyear(CanadaBasin)and01284daysyear(Beaufort Sea)duringthe200002012period(Freyetal2015)Multiyearseaicehasalmostentirelydisappearedwithinter0annualvariabilityiniceconcentrationlargelydrivenbywindforcing intheBeaufortSeaIntheCanadaBasindifferencesinannualseaiceareprimarilythermallydrivenwhilesea0iceextentisinfluencedbybothwindsandheatontheBeringSeashelf

Thesummeratmosphericpatternsinfluenceoceancirculationfreshwaterpathwaysand movementandmeltingofseaiceDuringthelastdecadetheintensificationoftheBeaufortHigh(OgiandWallace2012)resultedinanomaloussummerwindsTheseanomalouswinds togetherwiththelossofmulti0yeariceweretheprimaryfactorsthattransformedtheChukchiandnorthernBeaufortseasintoanopenwaterenvironment(Woodetal2015)InparticulartheeasternBeaufortSeaappearstobeparticularlysusceptibletoanomalouswindsthrough theireffectontheadvectionofwarmfreshwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumeInadditiontransportanomaliesintheBeringStraitaredeterminedbycompetinglarge0scale atmosphericpatternstheBeaufortHighandAleutianLow(Danielsonetal2014)NotablychangesinBeringStraitflowthroughcanimpacttheworldclimatefarbeyondtheBeringStraitandArcticregion(egHuetal2015)

Freyetal(2015)investigatetheinfluenceofthePacificDecadalOscillation(PDO)andtheArcticOscillation(AO)onthepersistenceofseaiceinsummerandwinterTheyfoundsignificantnegativecorrelationsbetweenseaiceonthesoutheasternBeringSeashelfandthe PDOinwinteraswellassignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweentheAOandsea0icecoverjustsouthofStLawrenceIslandSignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweenthePDOandsea iceintheCanadaBasin0CanadianArchipelagowerefoundinsummeraswellasbetweentheAOandseaiceintheChukchi0BeaufortseasThisnovelinvestigationofteleconnections betweenthePDOtheAOandsea0icecoverprovidesacriticalstepinunderstandinghow globalandregionalclimatepatternsinfluencethephysicsofthePacificArcticregion

Theunprecedentedlossofseaicehasresultedinatremendousincreaseinopen0water susceptibletorapidsolarheatingwithadditionalheatandfreshwaterprovidedbya50 increaseinPacificWaterinflowatBeringStraitfrom200102011(Woodgateetal2012 Woodetal2015)TheinfluenceofincreasedheatstoredintheChukchiandBeaufortseasis notwellunderstoodSuggestionsthatheatreleasedtotheatmosphereinlateautumnandwinterdrivesaspectsofmid0latitudeweatherremainspeculativelargelyduetotheshort timerecordavailable(Woodetal2015)FresheningoftheArcticOceanhasbeenoccurring atleastsincethe1990s(egGilesetal2012)Severalexplanationshavebeenproposed includingincreasedsea0icemeltfresherPacificWaterflowingthroughBeringStraitchanges inthemagnitudeofriverdischargeandthemeanstrengtheningoftheBeaufortHighInrecentyearsrelativelystrongeasterlywindshavebeencommonduetotheArctic0wide

22

patternofcirculationaroundanintensifiedBeaufortHighUndertheseconditionsfreshand warmwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumecanbelaterallytransportedfaroutintothe BeaufortSea(Woodetal2015)

WangandOverland(2015)comparedresultsfromtwelvecoupledclimatemodelstoproducecompositeprojectionsofthedurationofopenwaterintheChukchiandBeaufortseasat decadalintervalsfrom201002050andin2090Forwatersnorthofthe70degNopen0water durationshiftsfrom304monthsin2010toaprojected~5monthsby2040Projectedopen0 waterdurationisaboutonemonthlongeralongthesamelatitudesintheChukchiSeacomparedwiththeBeaufortSeawithuncertaintyofaboutplusmn1monthestimatedfromtherangeofmodelresultsAllmodelsprojectedopen0waterdurationtoexpandquicklyoverthe nextthreedecadeswhichwillimpactregionaleconomicaccessandpotentiallyalterecosystemsYetthePacificArcticregionwillremaincoveredwiththinfirst0yearicefrom JanuarythroughMayintothesecondhalfofthecenturyduetoseasonallackofsunlight

22Changesinprimaryproductionandoceanacidification

Thedramaticlossofsea0iceextentandvolumehasresultedinaconcomitantincreaseinlightpenetrationintheupperoceanacrosstheArcticGiventhethinningandarealreductionof seaiceafundamentalquestionariseshavethesechangesfosteredanincreaseinmarineprimaryproductionSpecificallyisthePacificArcticregionmoreproductivethanitwasthreedecadesagoIntheAtlanticArcticLeuetal(2011)measuredprimaryproductionby bothicealgaeandphytoplanktonincontrastingyears(2007008)ofsea0icecoverinaSvalbardfjordandconcludedthatearliericebreakupcorrespondedwithearlieronsetofa phytoplanktonbloomSimilarlyTremblayetal(2012)reportincreasedprimaryproductionfor2007008associatedwithextremesea0iceretreatsandincreasedupwellingatstations locatedsouthandeastofBanksIslandinthesoutheasternBeaufortSeaButcanconclusions drawnfrommeasurementssorestrictedinspaceandtimebeextrapolatedtolargerarcticregionsUsingsatelliteimageryArrigoandvanDijken(2015)investigatedchangesinseaice atbothregionalandbasinscalesfrom199802012andestimatedhowthesechangeshaveimpactedratesofnetprimaryproduction(NPP)byphytoplanktonTheyreportthatannual NPPincreased30duringthisperiodwiththelargestincreasesontheinteriorshelves (includingtheEastSiberianandBeaufort)andsmallerincreasesoninflowshelves(includingtheChukchi)OutflowshelveseitherexhibitednochangeinannualNPPoradeclineperhaps indicatingthatnutrientshadbeenconsumedfurtherupstreamIncreasedannualNPPwasoftenbutnotalwaysassociatedwithreducedsea0iceextentandresultantlonger phytoplanktongrowingseason

HumanactivitieshaveincreasedtheatmosphericCO2concentrationbyabout40sincethebeginningoftheindustrialageanditisestimatedthattheoceanhasabsorbedmorethan25

23

ofthetotalanthropogenicemissions(Mathisetal2015)TheoceanicuptakeofCO2triggersaseriesofchemicalreactionsinthesurfaceoceanthatreducespHandresultsinocean acidification(OA)InshortOAmakesseawatercorrosivetocalciumcarbonatemineralswhichmanymarineorganismsrelyonforbodystructuresHigh0latitudeoceanshave naturallylowcarbonateconcentrationssoareconsideredtobemorevulnerabletotheimpactsofOAbecauseadditionalcarbonatelossrepresentsamuchgreaterproportionalchangetothesystemInanovelstudyMathisetalprovideariskassessmentofOAimpacts tocommercialandtraditionalfisheriesfocusedonshellfishsalmonandfinfishTheresultant indexsuggeststhatwhilethenorthernBeringSeaisatmediumriskfromOAimpactsto fisheriesPacificArcticwatersnorthoftheSewardPeninsulaarecurrentlyatlowriskduelargelytoalackofdependenceonthesefoodsources

3)Lower)Trophic)Level)Communities)signals)from)direct)and)indirect)sampling

ThepredominantconceptualmodelframinghowmarineecosystemsinthePacificArctic respondtoreducedseaiceisbasedonchangesanticipatedfromashiftinpelagic0benthic coupling(Fig4)

Figure)4))Generalized)conceptual)model)depicting)the)influence)of)sea)ice)on)pelagicVbenthic)coupling)on) Pacific)Arctic)continental)shelves)

24

OnthebroadshelvesthatcomprisemuchofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemnewprimaryproductionfromsea0icealgaeandphytoplanktonbloomsfallstotheseafloortosupportrich benthiccommunities(Grebmeier2012)Asseaicethinsandretreatsearlierintheseasonitisanticipatedthatearlierandlargerphytoplanktonbloomswillswitchfromabenthic0 dominatedtoapelagic0dominatedmarineecosystemThisshiftwillcascadethroughthesystemsupportingnovelcommunitiesofsecondaryandtertiaryconsumers(zooplanktonandforagefishes)anduppertrophiclevelmarinebirdsandmammalsIndeedGrebmeieret al(2006)suggestedthatthistypeofecosystemshiftisalreadyunderwayinthemarinecommunitiesofthenorthernBeringSeaThePacificArcticisoftendescribedasabenthic0 dominatedmarineecosystemonethatdoesnotsupportalargebiomassorspeciesdiversityoffishesAdescriptionofconditionsthathavefosteredexistingbenthichotspotsoffersa solidfoundationforassessingfuturechangeswhileanaccountingoftheexistingcommunitiesofmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsprovidesastartingpointuponwhichtobuildalong0termrecord)

31Benthichotspotsandmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitats

ArecordofextantconditionsiskeytointerpretingmarineecosystemresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingnowevidentinthePacificArcticSucharecordexistsforfourbenthic lsquohotspotrsquocommunitiesinthenorthernBeringandChukchiseas(Grebmeieretal2015a)but notformarinefishesLong0termsamplingofbenthicmacrofaunalcommunitiesindicatesthatthebenthichotspotshavemaintainedconsistentlyhighbiomassforuptofourdecadesdueto reoccurrenceofseasonallyreliablemoderate0to0highwatercolumnproductioncoupledwithexportofcarbonfromoverlyingwaterstotheseafloorUppertrophiclevelbenthivorestargetpreyaggregationsineachofthehotspotsOverallbottom0upforcingbyhydrography andfoodsupplytothebenthosinfluencespersistenceandcompositionofbenthicpreywhichinturninfluencestheuppertrophiclevelspeciescompositionandseasonaloccurrence Whenconsistentlysampledintandemthesebenthos0benthivoreconnectionscanfacilitate useofUTLspeciesassentinelsofshiftsinpreycompositionandabundance(Mooreetal2014)

Sincethe2000stherehavebeenahostofArcticmarinefishsurveysintheChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasprecipitatedbybothscientificinterestintheimpactsofclimatechangeandcommercialinterestinoilandgasdevelopment(Logerwelletal2015)Resultsfrom thesesurveysprovideanovelopportunitytocompareArcticfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsrangingfromlagoonsandbeachestobenthicandpelagiccontinental shelfwatersAsynthesisofdatafromthesesurveysrevealedmoresimilaritiesthandifferencesinhabitatusebetweenthetwoseasForexamplenearshorehabitatisusedbyallageclassesofforagefishesandisalsoanurseryareaforotherspeciesinboththeChukchiand westernBeaufortseasNotablysomecommercialspeciesmaybeexpandingtheirrangenorthtothesewatersincludingchinooksalmon(Oncorhynchustshawytscha)walleyepollock (Gaduschalcogrammus)andflatfishes(Pleuronectidae)Inadditionasynthesisofinformationonrelativeabundanceandageofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)andsaffroncod

25

(Eleginusgracilis)bothkeypreyspeciesinArcticfoodwebssupportedthedevelopmentoflifehistoryanddistributionmodelsthatwillinformfutureresearchontrophicdynamicsin thePacificArcticsector

32Inferencesofmarineecosystemshiftsfromsealsseabirdsandseaducks

Additionalinformationregardingtheimpactoflsquonewnormalrsquobiophysicalconditionsonlowertrophiclevelspeciescanbeinferredfromshiftsinthedietandbodyconditionofmarine mammalsandbirdsCrawfordetal(2015)comparedthedietandconditionofringedseals(Pusahispida)andbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)harvestedintheAlaskanBeringand Chukchiseasduringhistorical(197501984)andrecent(200302012)periodsTheyfoundthe proportionoffishinthedietofbothspeciesincreasedintherecentreduced0iceperiodcomparedtothehistoricalperiodInadditionringedsealsgrewfasterhadthickerblubber andmaturedtwoyearsearlierBeardedsealshadthickerblubberintherecentperiodbut didnotmanifesttheotherchangesreportedfortheringedsealsAlthoughanumberofthe comparisonswerenotstatisticallysignificanttakentogethertheseobservationssuggestgreaterfishavailabilityintheAlaskanBering0Chukchimarineecosystemsupportinggood bodyconditionintheseals

AsinthesealpaperDivokyetal(2015)parsedalong0termdatasetintorecent(200302012)andhistorical(197501984)periodstocompareoceanographicconditionsnestlingdietandfledgingsuccessatablackguillemot(Cepphusgryllemandtii)breedingcolonyinthewestern BeaufortSeaFrom15Julyto1Septemberseaiceretreatedanaverageof18kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof958kmfromthecolonyduringthehistoricalperiodwhileinthe recentperiodiceretreataveraged98kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof5069kmSeasurfacetemperaturenearthecolonyincreasedby29⁰CbetweenthetwoperiodsWhileArcticcodcomprisedover95ofthepreyprovidedtonestlingsinthehistoricalperiodthis proportiondecreasedtolt5ofthenestlingdietduringmostyearsintherecentperiodwhendemersalsculpin(Cottidae)comprisedthemajorityofthedietTheshiftawayfrom Arcticcodwasassociatedwithafive0foldincreaseintherateofnestlingstarvationand reductionsinnestlinggrowthandfledgingmassConverselyannualadultsurvivalduringthe nonbreedingseason(September0May)showednosignificantdifferencebetweenthetwo periodssuggestingnochangeintheavailabilityofArcticcodorinoverallpreyavailabilityto blackguillemotsintheirBeringSeawinteringarea

IncontrasttoarelianceonpelagicpreyLovvornetal(2015)investigatedpotentialclimate0 relatedlimitstobenthicfeedingbyseaducksalongtheirmigrationcorridorinthenortheasternChukchiSeaKingeiders(Somateriaspectabilis)primarilyeatclams(bivalves) duringmigrationandrecentsamplinghasshownthatdenseclamassemblagesoccuronlyinspecificlocationsalongthemigrationcorridorSeaicecanpreventeidersfromreachingtheseprimefeedingsiteswithsatellitedataforApril‒May(2001‒2013)showingthataccess canvaryfrom0‒100InawarmingandincreasinglyvariableclimateaccesstobenthicfeedingsitesmaybefurthererodedbytheeffectsofwindsonunconsolidatediceThese

26

resultsunderscoretheimportanceofmaintainingarangeofbenthicfeedingareasthroughoutthemigrationcorridortoensurepreyavailabilitytotheeiderseachyear)

4)Upper)Trophic)Level)Species)marine)birds)and)mammals)as)ecosystem)sentinels

Astoppredatorsmarinebirdsandmammalsmustadapttochangesintheirhabitatsresultingfromphysicalforcingandtherebycanserveassentinelstoecosystemshifts(Mooreetal2014MooreandGulland2014)ResponsesofUTLspeciestoalteredhabitatscanbe categorizedasextrinsicincludingshiftsinrangemigratorytiming(phenology)orregionsofhighabundance(hotspots)orintrinsicincludingchangesindietbodyconditionand chemicalcomposition(Fig5)

Figure)5)Marine)birds)and)mammals)are)upper)trophic)level)(UTL))species)that)reflect)ecosystem) alterations)by)changes)in)habitat)use)(extrinsic))and)body)condition)(intrinsic))revealing)fundamental) changes)in)marine)ecosystems)

Responsesareinter0relatedsuchthatashiftinrangephenologyoruseofhotspotswillbe reflectedinchangesindietbodyconditionandchemistryItisthisconnectionthatallowsus

27

todetectecosystemreorganizationbytrackingchangesintheecologyandphysiologyofUTL speciesAlthoughtherehavebeennocoordinatedlong0termstudiesofUTLspeciesinthe PacificArcticexaminingthisconnectionasynthesisofinformationfromvisualsurveyssatellitetaggingofindividualsandyear0roundacousticdetectionsprovidesanecological foundationthatcanprovideabaselinetoinformfutureinvestigations

41Seasonaloccurrencehotspothabitatsandacousticecology

Kuletzetal(2015)depictspatialpatternsofrelativeabundanceofseabirdsandmarinemammalsinsummerandfallderivedfromsixyearsofvisualsurveysintheeasternChukchi andwesternBeaufortseasUsingstatisticalspatialanalysistoolshotspotsforseabirdswalrusandgraywhaleswereidentifiedintheChukchiSeawhilehotspotsforbowheadwhalesandsealsweredescribednearBarrowCanyonandalongtheBeaufortSeashelfand slopeHotspotsforbelugasoccurredinboththeChukchiandBeaufortseasInsummerthreehotspotsweresharedbybothseabirdsandmarinemammalsintheChukchiSeawaters offshoreWainwrightsouthofHannaShoalandatthemouthofBarrowCanyonOnlytheBarrowCanyonhotspotwasoccupiedthroughthefallSharedhotspotswerecharacterized bystrongfrontscausedbyupwellingandcurrentswhichcanservetoaggregatepreyUsingadifferentapproachCittaetal(2015)providedetailedanalysisoftheseasonalmovementsandhabitatusebyasinglespeciesthroughoutoneyearLocationsfrom54bowheadwhales (Balaenamysticetus)obtainedbysatellitetelemetryfrom200602012wereusedtoidentifya totalofsixcore0useareasintheBeaufort(3)Chukchi(1)andnorthernBering(2)seas Takentogetherthetimingofuse(phenology)andphysicalcharacteristics(oceanographyseaiceandwinds)associatedwitheachareadescribeaseasonalcircuitbythewhalesthroughareasthoughttosupportelevatedpreydensities

Passiveacousticsamplinghasbecomeacommonyear0roundtooltodetectcallingmarine mammalsinarcticseas(Mooreetal2006Staffordetal2012)Since2007therehasbeenanespeciallystrongsamplingeffortassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationinthenortheast ChukchiandwesternBeaufortseas(egHannayetal2013 httpwwwafscnoaagovnmmlcetaceanchaozphp)Theserecorderdeployments augmentalong0standingacousticstudyinthecentralBeaufortSea(Blackwelletal2007)andmorerecentdeploymentsintheBeringStraitregion(KStaffordperscomm)HeretoforeresearchersconductedeachofthesestudiesindependentlyofoneanotherClark etal(2015)presentsanovelsynthesisofthecombinedoutputfromsixresearcheffortsusingfourtypesofrecordersandavarietyofsub0samplingandanalysisschemestodescribean lsquoacousticyearrsquointhelifeofthebowheadwhaleDetectionsofbowheadcallsfrom20sitesextendingover2300kmfromthenorthernBeringSeatothesoutheastBeaufortSeawere combinedovera140monthperiod(200902010)todescribewhaleoccurrenceacrosstheir rangeThespatialandtemporalvariabilityinsoundlevelswithinthefrequencybandofbowheadwhaleswasalsoquantifiedThelowestunderwatersoundlevelsoccurredfromlate NovemberuntilMayintheChukchiSeaDuringwinter200902010singingbowheadwhaleselevatedbroadbandsoundlevelsforroughly38daysinthenorthernBeringSeafollowedby

28

asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

29

ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

31

Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

32

(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

preferenceandbehaviorinthenortheasternChukchiSea1982084RepIntWhale Commn362730279

MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Moore

TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

Mathis

UsinganEnvironmentalIntelligenceFrameworktoEvaluatetheImpactsof

OceanAcidificationintheArctic

ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

26(Jan(2017(

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

24(Jan(2017(

VanPelt

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 3: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR))

Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)mdash)June)13)2018)

Prepared)forEnvironmentalStudiesProgramAlaskaOuterContinentalShelfRegionBureauofOceanEnergyManagement3801CenterpointDriveSuite500 AnchorageAlaska99503

Authors) DrSueEMoore DrPhyllisJStabeno NMFSScienceampTechnology OARPacificMarineEnvironmentalLaboratory 7600SandPointWayNE 7600SandPointWayNE SeattleWA98115 SeattleWA98115 SueMoorenoaagov PhyllisStabenonoaagov 206052606889 206052606453 LisaSheffieldGuy ThomasVanPelt ARCUS UWJISAO 3535CollegeRoadSuite101 7600SandPointWayNE FairbanksAlaska99709 SeattleWA98115lisaarcusorg thomasvanpeltnoaagov 907047401600 907024207725

Project)Status))) ) Completed Start)date) 20May2011 End)date) ) 15June2018 Project)Duration 7years

3

Contents)

ListofFiguresv

ListofTablesv

Introduction6 Background7

Objectivesandmethods10 Objectives10 Methods10 Taskframework10 Taskdetail11 SOARPhase1andSOARPhase213

Results13 FoundationaltasksSciencesteeringcommitteeandworkshop13 TheSOARSciencesteeringcommittee13 SOARWorkshopndashMarch201214

Scienceproductandcommunicationtasks16 Peer0reviewedpublicationsmdashPhase1 16Peer0reviewedpublicationsmdashPhase2 18presentationsandpostersatscientificmeetings20 Othercommunicationofsynthesisapproachandproducts 20

Synthesissummaryanddiscussion20 SOARPhaseI20 SOARPhaseII34 OverallSOARContextandconclusion44

Literaturecited46

AppendixAndashListofSOAR2012workshopattendees54

AppendixBndashListofSOARcontributorsandinstitutions56

AppendixCndashListofSOARcontributorpresentationsatscientificmeetingsworkshopsandwebinars58

4

List)of)Figures)

Figure1Mapofstudyareashowingprincipalcurrents(redlines)andmeansea0icemaximum (spring)andminimum(fall)extent(MooreandStabeno2015)7

Figure2CoverofthefirstSOARspecialissueProgressinOceanographyVol13616

Figure3HighlightsofrecentbiophysicalchangesinthePacificArcticmarineecosystem21

Figure4Generalizedconceptualmodeldepictingtheinfluenceofseaiceonpelagic0benthiccoupling onPacificArcticcontinentalshelves24

Figure5Marinebirdsandmammalsareuppertrophiclevel(UTL)speciesthatreflectecosystem alterationsbychangesinhabitatuse(extrinsic)andbodycondition(intrinsic)revealing fundamentalchangesinmarineecosystems27

Figure6ComponentsoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelndashlinkingpelagic0benthic couplingandadvectivemodelstoderiveaseasonalmodelforthePacificArcticframedby contiguousdomains32

Figure7TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodeldepictingseasonalbiophysicalpulsesin threeecologicaldomainsacrossalatitudinalgradientoverthecourseofanannualcycleinthe PacificArcticregion(MooreandStabeno2015)33

Figure8Paperscomprisingtheforthcoming20182ndSOARspecialissue(tobepublishedinDeep0 SeaResearchPartII)identifiedbyleadauthorandorganizedbyecologicaldomainsthatframe theArcticMarinePulsesmodel(Mooreetalinpress)35

List)of)Tables)

Table1ListofScienceSteeringCommitteemembersandinstitutions13

Table2ListofSOARSSCTeleconferencesandin0personmeetings14

Table3Papersincludedinthe2015SOARspecialissueofProgressinOceanography17

Table4PaperstoappearintheSOAR2ndPhasespecialissueinDeepSeaResearchPartII18

5

INTRODUCTION)

ChangestothephysicalenvironmentoftheUSArcticOuterContinentalShelf(OCS)aredrivingshiftsinthedistributionandbehaviorofanumberofprotectedmarinemammalspeciesthatinhabitthosewatersThesamespeciesmaybeaffectedbyoilandgasactivities withinOCSPlanningAreaswithstrongpotentialfordeleteriousinteractionsbetweennaturalandhumaninducedphenomenaEnvironmentalregulations(egNEPAtheESAandthe MMPA)requiretheBureauofOceanEnergyManagement(BOEM)toevaluatewhetherand howfederalactionsassociatedwithoilandgasdevelopmentmayaffecttheseprotectedspeciesandthemarineenvironmentonwhichtheydependInformationonoceancirculation andhydrographyisusefulfortheseevaluationsaswellasforinputintomodelsusedtopredicttheoutcomeofoilspillsHoweverphysicsalonecannotpredicthowprotected speciesandthemarineecosystemsuponwhichtheydependwillrespondtonaturalandanthropogenicforcingGivenrecentinvestmentsbyBOEMotherfederalagencies(egNOAA USGSNSF)andtheoilandgasindustryininterdisciplinarybiologicalandoceanographicresearchinthePacificArcticregion(PAR)asynthesisofresultsofcompletedandongoingstudieswillhelptoinformmanagementdecision0makersandtoguidefutureresearch activities

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)PhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArcticprojectprovidesaframeworkforasynthesisofscientificinformationdrawnfromcompleted andongoingmarineresearchinthePacificArcticregionTheSOARprojectaimstoincreasescientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsbenthicorganismslowertrophicpreyspecies(foragefishandzooplankton)andmarinemammal distributionandbehaviorinthePARwithparticularemphasisonthenortheasternChukchiSeaSOARfurtheraimstoenhanceourcapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographic featuressuchascurrentsupwellingandiceleadsandassociatedchangesinthebehaviorof marinemammalsandtheirpreyintheregionandtoeffectivelytransmitfindingsofsynthesis activitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArcticresidentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

InthisreportweprovidedetailonthebackgroundmethodsandresultsoftheSOARprojectandsummarizethescientificoutcomesacrossthefirstandsecondphasesofSOAR

6

BACKGROUND

ThePacificArcticregioncompriseswatersnorthofStMatthewIsland(60degNlatitude)inthenorthernBeringChukchiBeaufortandEastSiberianseas(Grebmeieretal2010)Theregionisanin0flowsystemtotheArctic(Carmacketal2006)withthreedistinctwater massesflowingnorththroughBeringStraitthenbathymetricallychanneledacrosstheChukchiSeashelfandintotheBeaufortSeabasin(Fig1)Theannualadvanceandretreatof seaiceisthekeyphysicaldriverofprimaryproductiontrophicinteractionsandhumanaccessandactivitiesovertheentirePARThephysicalclimateofthePARischangingrapidlydrivingchangeacrosstheregionalmarineecosystems(GrebmeierandMaslowski2014)

Figure)1))Map)of)study)area)showing)principal)currents)(red)lines))and)mean)seaVice)maximum)(spring)) and)minimum)(fall))extent)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

Thesummerminimumsea0iceextentin2007and2008coveredanareathatwas37less thanthearealcoverageoftwodecadespriorand20lessthanthepreviousminimumcoveragein2005(Stroeveetal2008)Thepaceofthesechangeswasunexpectedasthe consensusoftheclimateresearchcommunitywasthatsuchchangeswouldnotbeseenfor

7

another30years(WangandOverland2009)Thereductioninsea0iceareaopensupvastnew regionsoftheArcticOceantoincreasedabsorptionofsunlightandstorageofheatThisheat isreturnedtotheatmosphereinthefollowingautumnresultinginincreasedArctic temperaturesofmorethan5degCextendingthesea0icefreeseasonthroughNovemberandcausingchangesinwindpatternsThesephysicalchangestotheArcticsystemappeartobe irreversible

Marinemammalsrespondtochangesinseaiceaccordingtotheirdependencyonitforvitallifefunctions(MooreandHuntington2008Kovacsetal2010)InthePARthedramaticchangesinseasonalsea0iceextentandtypeappeartohaveprecipitatedchangesinmarine mammalmigrationandfeedingpatternsForexamplelargeaggregationsofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)feedroutinelynearBarrowfromlatesummerthroughautumna phenomenonpreviouslyconsideredlsquosporadicrsquo(Mooreetal2010)Graywhales(Eschrichtius robustus)consideredatemperatespeciescommonlyfeednearthebowheadwhaleswhereas thetwospeciesappearedtobespatiallyandtemporallysegregatedintheearly1980s(Mooreetal1986)

Inadditiontothechangesinmarinemammalecologyanorthwardshiftofsomefishspecies(egSpencer2008MueterandLitzow2008RandandLogerwell2010)andtheprevalenceof euphausiids(Thysanoessaspp)indicatedthatthetrophicstructureofthePARischangingEuphausiidsareimportantpreyforbowheadandgraywhales(Ashjianetal2010Bluhmet al2007)andpossiblyalsoforicesealsEuphausiidsarethoughttobetransportedintothe PARfromthenorthernBeringSeaasreproductionhasneverbeenobservedinwatersnorthofBeringStrait(Berlineetal2008)Coupledtothisisthegeneraldearthofinformationon distributionandabundanceofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)inthePARaspeciesconsideredessentialintheshorttrophicfoodwebscommontopolarmarineecosystems(Ainleyand DeMaster1990)Examinationandsynthesisofhownaturalandhuman0associated environmentalvariabilityimpactsmarinemammalsrequiresinvestigationofthebiophysical changestotrophicstructureanddynamicsoftheirfishandinvertebrateprey

During200502015BOEMmadeextensiveinvestmentsinmarinemammalandrelated oceanographicstudiesintheeasternhalfofthePAR(ietheInternationalDateLineeastto theCanadianBeaufort)Datafromthosestudieswillconsiderablyaugmentthebodyof knowledgefortheregionbutinterpretationwouldbeconstrainedifresultsarenot integratedwithotherresearcheffortsAddressingthisintegrationwasthegenesisofthe SOARprojecttoundertakesynthesisofresearchfromongoingBOEMstudiesinthePARwhichincludebutarenotlimitedtothefollowing

bull BowheadWhaleFeedingVariabilityintheWesternAlaskanBeaufortSeaSatelliteTrackingofBowheadWhaleMovementsFeedingampOceanography

bull PassiveAcousticDetectionandMonitoringofEndangeredWhalesintheArctic

8

bull EcosystemObservationsintheChukchiSeaBiophysicalMooringandClimateModeling

bull ChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea(COMIDA)ChemistryandBenthos

bull DistributionandRelativeAbundanceofMarineMammalsCOMIDAAerialSurveys

bull HannaShoalEcosystemStudy

bull MonitoringtheDistributionofArcticWhales(alsoknownasBWASP)

bull WalrusHabitatUseinthePotentialDrillingArea

bull PinnipedMovementsandForagingBeardedSeals

bull AssessingReproductionandBodyConditionoftheRingedSealnearSachsHarbourNorthwestTerritoryCanadathroughaHarvest0basedSamplingProgram

bull ArcticmarineresearchstudiessupportedthroughNationalOceanPartnership Program(NOPP)towhichBOEMcontributes

bull StudiesconductedbytheAlaskaDepartmentofFishandGame(ADFampG)andtheNorthSlopeBorough(NSB)underBOEMrsquosCoastalImpactAssistanceProgram(CIAP)

Dataandresultsfromrelated(butnotBOEM0funded)studiesthatalsocontributetotheSOAR includebutarenotlimitedtothefollowing

bull NOAArsquosRUSALCAprogram(USA0RussiabilateralstudyoftheChukchiSea)

bull StudiessupportedbyNSFOfficeofPolarPrograms

bull StudiessupportedbytheLandscapeConservationCooperativeNetwork

bull StudiessupportedbytheAlaskaDepartmentofFishampGametheUSGeologicalSurveyandbytheUSFishampWildlifeService

bull Studiessupportedbyoilandgasindustry(egShellConocoPhillipsStatOilBritishPetroleum)relatedtomitigationandmonitoringofeffectsofoffshoreexplorationanddevelopmentonmarinemammalsandtheirenvironmentegtheChukchiSea EnvironmentalStudiesProgram(CSESP)

)

)

)

9

OBJECTIVES)AND)METHODS)

)

OBJECTIVES

)

TheSOARprojectfocusedonthreeobjectives

1 Increasescientificunderstandingoftheinter0andintra0relationshipsofoceanographicconditionsbenthicorganismslowertrophicpreyspecies(foragefishand zooplankton)andmarinemammaldistributionandbehaviorinthePARwithparticularemphasisontheChukchiSealeaseareas

2 Enhancecapabilitytopredictchangesinoceanographicfeaturessuchascurrents upwellingandiceleadsandassociatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARwithparticularemphasisonthenortheasternChukchiSea

3 EffectivelytransmitfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

)

METHODS

TASKFRAMEWORK

TheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojectwastouseavailableanalyticalandmodelingapproachestoidentifyandtesthypothesesthatcrossscientificdisciplinesSOARprovidesa frameworktosupportasynthesisofscientificinformationdrawnfromcompletedandongoingmarineresearchinthePacificArcticregionTheframeworkconsistsofsixtasks

1 establishaScienceSteeringCommitteetoprovideleadershipandoversightforthe synthesisproject

2 conductaSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)WorkshopinvolvingPIsfromall relevantresearchprogramsto

i identifyanddevelopsciencesynthesisthemesii detailrequireddataandanalysesforeachtheme iii formAnalyticalTeamstosupporttheworkofeachsynthesisthemeiv listanticipatedworkproducts(iepeer0reviewedpapersandpresentations)

and

10

v deriveameanstoarchivedataandmeta0datausedinsupportofthesynthesis 3 supportAnalyticalTeamdataintegrationandanalysisincludingtheme0based

meetingsasneeded 4 trackprogressofanalyticalworkviabi0monthlyteleconferencesandannualSCCAT0

updateworkshops 5 producescienceproductsincludingpresentationsatprofessionalmeetingsand

publicationofpeer0reviewedpapersasaSpecialIssueamporThemeSectionsinanappropriatescientificjournaland

6 communicatesynthesisapproachandfindingstolocalArcticresidentsresourcemanagersnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

TASKDETAIL

TASK)1)))ESTABLISH)AND)CONVENE)SCIENTIFIC)STEERING)COMMITTEE)

LeadershipandguidanceofthesynthesisprojectwasprovidedbyaScienceSteeringCommittee(SSC)formedofseniorscientistswithdecades0longexperienceinthePacific ArcticAttheinitialSSCmeetingthegroupidentifiedrelevantprojectsdeveloped provisionalsciencethemesandidentifiedpotentialparticipantsandleadersfor interdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeamsformedatthesubsequentSOARWorkshop

TASK)2)))PLAN)AND)CONDUCT)SOAR)WORKSHOP)

Amulti0disciplinarySOARWorkshopwasthekeystoneinitialproductofSOARWorkshop participantsinventoriedavailabledataandevaluateditssufficiencytoaddressspecificcross0 disciplinaryhypothesesandquestionsprovisionallyidentifiedassciencethemesbytheSSCTheprovisionallistofthemeswasmodifiedandnewthemesemergedattheworkshopOnce sciencethemeswereagreeduponinterdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeams(AT)wereformedto conductthecoreworkoftheSOARprojectInterdisciplinaryATstheninitiatedthe developmentofshortproposalstosupporttheworkrequiredfordataintegrationanalyses andormodeling

TASK)3))SUPPORT)DATA)INTEGRATION)ANALYSIS)AND)MODELING

Inresponsetoproposalsdetailingtheworktobeperformedtimelineandproducts anticipatedmdashandincoordinationwithSSCreviewmdashfundingwasprovidedviacontractfor selectedATstointegratedataconductanalysesrunmodelsandordeveloppublicationsInsomecasesdirectfundingwasnotneededandin0kindsupportwasprovidedintheformofreviewcoordinationandpublicationfacilitationAsubsetofATsintegratedtheirworkwith

11

on0goingoceanographicprograms(egRUSALCAandtheDistributedBiologicalObservatory[DBO])andinsomecasestheATsconductedfollow0ontheme0basedmeetingsorintegrativeworkshopsasthebestmeanstoaccomplishdataintegrationandsynthesisontheirtopic OtherATschosetointegratetheirworkviavideoorteleconferenceswiththebulkofcontract fundinggoingtowardssupportforagraduatestudentpost0docorotherresearcherto accomplishthesynthesistasksidentified)

TASK)4))TRACK)PROGRESS)OF)ANALYTICAL)WORK)

ATleadshadprimaryresponsibilityfortrackingtheprogressofworkontheirsciencethemeandmembersoftheSSCwerealsoaskedtofollowtheprogressoftheworktowardsuseful productsTrackingtooktheformofcontactatregularintervals(egbimonthly)viae0mailorphonesolicitingspecificinformationonproblemsencounteredandadherencetotimelineforproductcompletionSummariesofprogressoneachthemeappearedinQuarterlyReportsto theBOEM

TASK)5))SCIENCE)PRODUCTS))

ThecoreproductoftheSOARprojectwasaseriesofsciencepresentationsandpeer0reviewedpapersdescribingcurrentandprojectedstatusofthePARmarineecosystemAnnual presentationsontheapproachandprogressoftheSOARwereprovidedatplenarysessionsof theAlaskaMarineScienceSymposiumandadditionalpresentationsweremadeatother sciencevenuessuchastheAGUOceanSciencesmeetingSciencepaperswerethenpublishedinspecialissuesofpeer0reviewedjournalswiththeprojectPIsandcoordinatorservingas GuestEditors

TASK)6))COMMUNICATION)OF)SYNTHESIS)APPROACH)amp)PRODUCTS)

Inadditiontosciencepapersandpresentationsresultsofthesyntheseswereprovidedto communitiesinelectronicandhardcopyformatandopportunitiestospeakwithArcticresidentsweresoughtatco0managementmeetingsandotherforaAwebsitewasdeveloped providinggraphicsandbriefsummariesforgeneraluseandlinkingtootherrelevantsitesResultsofthesynthesiswerecommunicatedtovariousnationalandinternationalArctic Programs(egNOAAArcticReportCardSEARCHISACPAGIASCandArcticCouncilWorkingGroups)

12

SOARPHASE1ANDSOARPHASE2

Task5(ScienceProducts)wasoriginallyenvisagedtoresultinaspecialvolumeofpeer0reviewedpaperspossiblysupplementedbyanadditionalsmallersetofpapersinatheme sectionorothersimilaroutletHoweverfollowingcompletionofthefirstphaseofSOARculminatinginthe2015specialissueofProgressinOceanography(MooreandStabeno2015 seeResultssectionbelowformoreinformation)therewasahighlevelofinterestinextendingSOARtoincludeadditionalsynthesisThereforethesecondphaseofSOARwas developedbuildingfromaninformalmid0projectworkshopandresultinginasecondfullspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchIIFurtherdetailisprovidedinthefollowingsections

RESULTS)

FOUNDATIONALTASKSSCIENCESTEERINGCOMMITTEEANDWORKSHOP

THESOARSCIENCESTEERINGCOMMITTEE

AScienceSteeringCommittee(SCC)comprisedofscientistsandAlaskancoastalcommunityrepresentativeswasestablished(Table1)ThefirstoffiveannualSSCmeetingswasheldfrom103November2011attheWatertownHotelinSeattleWATheSSCidentifiedrelevantprojects anddatasourcesdevelopedthreedraftsciencethemesandrelatedquestionsandidentified potentialparticipantsandleadersforassociatedinterdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeamsthatwould beformedatSOARScienceWorkshopMultiplesubsequentmeetingsfurtherdevelopedthe sciencethemesandprovidedguidanceforSOARtasks(Table2)

)

Table)1))List)of)Science)Steering)Committee)members)and)institutions)

ScienceSteeringCommitteeMember

Affiliation Location

RobynAngliss NOAANationalMarineMammalLaboratory

SeattleWA

CarinAshjian WoodsHoleOceanographic Institution

WoodsHoleMA

ChristopherClark CornellUniversity IthacaNY

13

JacquelineGrebmeier UniversityofMarylandCenterforEnvironmental Studies

SolomonsMD

CraigGeorge NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EskimoWhaling

ComissionKawerak NomeAK

SueMoore NOAANMFS SeattleWA ChadJay USGeologicalSurvey AnchorageAK TimRagan MarineMammalCommission WashingtonDC PhyllisStabeno NOAAPMEL SeattleWA RobertSuydam NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK TomWeingartner UniversityofAlaska0

Fairbanks FairbanksAK

)

Table)2)List)of)SOAR)SSC)Teleconferences)and)inVperson)meetings)

SOAR)SSC)Meeting) SSCTeleconference1

Date) 21September2011

SSCTeleconference2 18October2011 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingSeattleWA 11November2011 SSCTeleconference3 16February2012 SSCTeleconference4 6April2012 SOARMarchWorkshop 14016March2012 SSCTeleconference5 6July2012 SSCTeleconference6 6October2012 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 21January2013 SSCTeleconference7) 9April2013 SSCTeleconference8) 14November2013 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 20January2014 SSCTeleconference9) 12January2015 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 23January2015 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK(informal)) 26January2016

SOARWORKSHOPndashMARCH2012

TheSOARScienceWorkshopwasheldfrom14016March2012attheEganCenterinAnchorageAlaskaTheSOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandProjectCoordinatorallmembersoftheScienceSteeringCommitteeand42ofthe43invitedSOARContributorsattendedthe

14

workshopDraftScienceThemesandQuestionsdevelopedbytheSOARScienceSteeringCommitteewereprovidedtoparticipantsinadvanceoftheworkshopsummarizedas(i)EcosystemResponsetoBottom0upandorTop0downForcing(ii)MarineBirdsMammalsandFishasEcosystemSentinelsand(iii)AcousticEcology

TheprimarygoalsoftheScienceWorkshopwereto(1)refinetheDraftScienceThemesandQuestions(2)formresearchteamstoundertakeanalysisinsupportofdevelopmentofpeer0reviewedpapersand(3)developshortproposalstoidentifyprojectmilestonesandfinancialsupportrequiredtocompletesyntheticprojects

DayoneoftheworkshopconsistedofdisciplinarytalksinplenarysessiontoprovideallparticipantswiththecurrentstateofknowledgeineachareaofstudyDuringdaytwooftheworkshopsciencethemeswererevisedtoreflectgroupinputParticipantsdividedintothree theme0basedbreakoutgroupsandbegandevelopingsciencequestionstoproposeforSOARDaythreeoftheworkshopbeganwithaplenarysummaryofthepreviousdayrsquosprogress followedbybreakoutgroupstowriteandsubmitone0pageproposalsfortheprojects requestingfundingOntheafternoonofthethirddayanopen0sessionwasheldto communicateworkshopprogresstoBOEMscientistsandmanagerscolleaguesfromtheNorthPacificResearchBoardandAlaskaOceanObservingSystemindustryrepresentativesand otherinterestedpartiesFurtherdetailsoftheSOARWorkshopcanbefoundintheSOAR WorkshopReport(SheffieldGuyetal2012a)andseealsoSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)

15

SCIENCEPRODUCTANDCOMMUNICATIONTASKS

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE1 FollowingtheinitialSOARthemeselectionsandteamdevelopmentandincorporatinganextensivepeer0reviewphaseledbytheprojectPIsandcoordinatorthefirstphaseofthe SOARprojectculminatedinaspecialvolumeofProgressinOceanographypublishedinAugust 2015(Fig2Table3)Thisspecialissueincluded16fullpapersplusanintroductionpaper authoredbythetwoprojectPIs

Figure)2)Cover)of)the)first)SOAR)special) volume)published)in)Progress)in)

Oceanography)in)2015)

16

Table)3))Papers)included)in)the)2015)SOAR)special)issue)of)Progress)in)Oceanography)

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsofthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011 WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressinOceanography13612031 FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015Divergentpatternsofrecent seaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049 WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059 ArrigoKRvanDijkenGL2015ContinuedincreasesinArcticOceanprimaryproductionProgressinOceanography13660070 MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJNFeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091 GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarkeJTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSHLovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015EcosystemcharacteristicsandprocessesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114 LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132 CrawfordJAQuakenbushLTCittaJJ2015Acomparisonofringedandbeardedsealdietconditionandproductivitybetweenhistorical(1975ndash1984)andrecent(2003ndash2012)periodsintheAlaskanBeringandChukchiseasProgressinOceanography1361330150 DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarctic seaiceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161 LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015LimitstobenthicfeedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchangingseaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174 KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015SeasonalspatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareas ProgressinOceanography1361750200 CittaJJQuakenbushLTOkkonenSRDruckenmillerMLMaslowskiWClement0KinneyJGeorgeJCBrowerHSmallRJAshjianCJHarwoodLAHeide0Joslashrgensen MP2015Ecologicalcharacteristicsofcore0useareasusedbyBeringndashChukchindashBeaufort(BCB)bowheadwhales2006ndash2012ProgressinOceanography1362010222

17

ClarkCWBerchokCLBlackwellSBHannayDEJonesJPonirakisDStafford KM2015AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasProgressinOceanography1362230240 MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationshipbetweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249 GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgressinOceanography1362500262 HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015ChangeintheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE2

Followingthe2015publicationofthefirstSOARspecialissueinProgressinOceanography theSOARprojectSSCandparticipantsdecidedtopursuecoordinatethepublicationofasetofpapersinfullsecondspecialissueThosePhase2topicsandpaperleadswerediscussedat theannualSOARSSCmeetinginJanuary2015Baseduponsuggestionsatthismeeting102pageproposalswererequestedfromsuggestedpaperleadsandproposalswerethen subsequentlydevelopedintopublishedpapersThemajorityofpapersforthesecondspecial issuewerecompletedandinpressbytheendof2017(Table4)withfinalpublicationofthe completespecialissueinDeepSeaResearchIIndashTopicalStudiesinOceanographyexpectedby latesummer2018

Table)4))Papers)to)appear)in)the)SOAR)2nd)Phase)special)issue)published)in)Deep)Sea)Research)Part)II)

Corresponding) Author Manuscript)Title

SueMoore IntroductionTheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)Project

MuyinWang SeaiceandoceancharacteristicsintheChukchiSeabyselectedCMIP5modelsthepresentandthefuture

NicholasBond DiagnosisofphysicaloceanographiceventsintheChukchiSea usinganoceanreanalysis

VictoriaHill DecadaltrendsinphytoplanktonproductioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

18

JessicaCross FormationandtransportofcorrosivewaterinthePacificArcticRegion

LeeCooper DepositionpatternsontheChukchiShelfusingradionuclide inventoriesinrelationtosurfacesedimentcharacteristics

Matthew Druckenmiller

Trendsinsea0icecoverandupwellingpotentialwithinBowheadwhaleuseareasintheWesternArctic

KateStafford AcousticecologyofbowheadandbelugawhalesincoreuseareasintheBeaufortandChukchiSeas

JohnCitta Oceanographiccharacteristicsassociatedwithbowheadwhale movementsintheChukchiSea

JohnCitta SeasonaldistributionandoverlapofmarinemammalsintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseas

KimberlyRand UsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

ElizabethLogerwell Environmentaldriversofbenthicfishdistributioninandaround BarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwesternBeaufortSea

KathleenStafford BelugawhalesintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaasynthesisofavailableinformationontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StephenOkkonen Relationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskanBeaufortSea

MartinRobards UnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesintheAlaskanArcticPlace0basedcollaborationswithAlaskaNative communities

SueMoore TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)ModellinkingtemporalprocessestocontiguousdomainsinthePacificArctic

19

PRESENTATIONSANDPOSTERSATSCIENTIFICMEETINGS

SOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandcontributorsmademorethan50presentationsincludinginformationaboutthissynthesiseffortatavarietyofscientificmeetingsworkshopsandwebinarsAfulllistofthesepresentationsisprovidedinAppendixC

OTHERCOMMUNICATIONOFSYNTHESISAPPROACHANDPRODUCTS

TheSynthesisofArcticResearchwebsitelocatedathttpswwwpmelnoaagovsoar providesbackgroundinformationandup0to0datescienceproductinformationtostakeholders andthegeneralpublicThewebsitewillcontinuetobeliveandhostedbyNOAA

Severalpeer0reviewedpaperswerepublishedthatalsoappealtoamoregeneralortrans0 disciplineaudienceincludingSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)andSheffieldGuyetal(2016)SOARsynthesisresultswerefeaturedinnumerousnewspapersonlinefeaturesmagazines andmore

SYNTHESIS)SUMMARY)AND)DISCUSSION)

SOARPHASEI

ThefirstphaseofSOARresultedinfifteenpaperspublishedinaspecialissueofProgressin Oceanographyin2015(Table3)HereweprovideabroadoverviewanddiscussionofthepapersinthatspecialissuedrawnfromtheIntroductiontothatissue(MooreandStabeno 2015)

1 Introduction)

TheinitiationoftheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)projectcoincidedwiththerecognitionthatbiophysicalchangesinthePacificArcticregionweresoextremecomparedtotherecentpastthattheyacquiredthemonikerlsquonewnormalrsquo(Jeffriesetal2013) ConsequentlydescribingthebiophysicalpropertiesofthelsquonewlsquoPacificArcticmarineecosystemwasfoundationaltotheSOAReffortandthefocusoffivepapersinthefirstspecial issueExaminingbiologicalresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingthenbecamethetaskofresearchersfocusedonthestudyoflowertrophiclevel(LTL)communitiesanduppertrophiclevel(UTL)speciesTwopapersprovideintegratedresultsfromdirectsamplingofbenthic andfishcommunitieswhilethreepapersreportonchangesinLTLspeciesoccurrenceinferredbyshiftsinthedietsofsealsandmarinebirdsSixpapersfocusonUTLspecieswith fourpresentinginformationonseasonaloccurrenceinhotspotorcore0usehabitatsandtwo describingvariabilityinmarinemammalbodyconditioninthecontextofdecadal0scale

20

environmentalvariabilityTogetherthesepapersprovideasyntheticcontexttofocushypothesesunderpinningthenextdecadeofresearchinthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

2)Biophysics)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

ThePacificArcticmarineecosystemiscomprisedofinflowshelves(northernBeringandChukchiseas)coupledtointeriorshelves(EastSiberianandBeaufortseas)withthe contrastingbiophysicsofthesedomainssummarizedinCarmacketal(2006)Circulationon bothinflowandinteriorshelvesislinkedtopan0arcticteleconnectionmechanisms(egArcticOscillation)withinteriorshelvesalsostronglyinfluencedbytheseasonaloutflowof relativelywarmfreshwaterfromarcticriversEvaluatingecosystemstatusandtrendsinthePacificArcticwasthefocusofarecentbookwith10(of12)chaptersdevotedtoobservationsandmodelingoftheatmosphereoceanphysicsandchemistry(GrebmeierandMaslowski 2014)Thepapersinthefirstspecialissueaddtothatbodyofknowledgeespeciallywithregardtobiologicalresponsestobiophysicaldriversandinthiswaycontributetoamore holisticunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

21)PhysicalobservationsandopenwaterprojectionsinthelsquonewnormalrsquoPacificArctic

Recentobservations(200302013)ofenvironmentalchangesinthePacificArcticsupportthecontentionthatanewnormalclimateisemerging(Fig3Jeffriesetal2013Woodetal 2015)

Figure)3))Highlights)of)recent)biophysical)changes)in)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

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Theiconicindicatorofthischangeisthedramaticsummertimelossofseaice(50byarea75byvolume)whichinsomeyears(eg2012)hasresultedinnearlyice0freeconditionsin theregionSpecificallysatellitedatafrom197902012reveallocalizedchangesinsea0ice occurrenceofupto0164daysyearintheCanadaBasinand0124daysyearintheBeaufort Seawhichacceleratedto0657daysyear(CanadaBasin)and01284daysyear(Beaufort Sea)duringthe200002012period(Freyetal2015)Multiyearseaicehasalmostentirelydisappearedwithinter0annualvariabilityiniceconcentrationlargelydrivenbywindforcing intheBeaufortSeaIntheCanadaBasindifferencesinannualseaiceareprimarilythermallydrivenwhilesea0iceextentisinfluencedbybothwindsandheatontheBeringSeashelf

Thesummeratmosphericpatternsinfluenceoceancirculationfreshwaterpathwaysand movementandmeltingofseaiceDuringthelastdecadetheintensificationoftheBeaufortHigh(OgiandWallace2012)resultedinanomaloussummerwindsTheseanomalouswinds togetherwiththelossofmulti0yeariceweretheprimaryfactorsthattransformedtheChukchiandnorthernBeaufortseasintoanopenwaterenvironment(Woodetal2015)InparticulartheeasternBeaufortSeaappearstobeparticularlysusceptibletoanomalouswindsthrough theireffectontheadvectionofwarmfreshwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumeInadditiontransportanomaliesintheBeringStraitaredeterminedbycompetinglarge0scale atmosphericpatternstheBeaufortHighandAleutianLow(Danielsonetal2014)NotablychangesinBeringStraitflowthroughcanimpacttheworldclimatefarbeyondtheBeringStraitandArcticregion(egHuetal2015)

Freyetal(2015)investigatetheinfluenceofthePacificDecadalOscillation(PDO)andtheArcticOscillation(AO)onthepersistenceofseaiceinsummerandwinterTheyfoundsignificantnegativecorrelationsbetweenseaiceonthesoutheasternBeringSeashelfandthe PDOinwinteraswellassignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweentheAOandsea0icecoverjustsouthofStLawrenceIslandSignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweenthePDOandsea iceintheCanadaBasin0CanadianArchipelagowerefoundinsummeraswellasbetweentheAOandseaiceintheChukchi0BeaufortseasThisnovelinvestigationofteleconnections betweenthePDOtheAOandsea0icecoverprovidesacriticalstepinunderstandinghow globalandregionalclimatepatternsinfluencethephysicsofthePacificArcticregion

Theunprecedentedlossofseaicehasresultedinatremendousincreaseinopen0water susceptibletorapidsolarheatingwithadditionalheatandfreshwaterprovidedbya50 increaseinPacificWaterinflowatBeringStraitfrom200102011(Woodgateetal2012 Woodetal2015)TheinfluenceofincreasedheatstoredintheChukchiandBeaufortseasis notwellunderstoodSuggestionsthatheatreleasedtotheatmosphereinlateautumnandwinterdrivesaspectsofmid0latitudeweatherremainspeculativelargelyduetotheshort timerecordavailable(Woodetal2015)FresheningoftheArcticOceanhasbeenoccurring atleastsincethe1990s(egGilesetal2012)Severalexplanationshavebeenproposed includingincreasedsea0icemeltfresherPacificWaterflowingthroughBeringStraitchanges inthemagnitudeofriverdischargeandthemeanstrengtheningoftheBeaufortHighInrecentyearsrelativelystrongeasterlywindshavebeencommonduetotheArctic0wide

22

patternofcirculationaroundanintensifiedBeaufortHighUndertheseconditionsfreshand warmwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumecanbelaterallytransportedfaroutintothe BeaufortSea(Woodetal2015)

WangandOverland(2015)comparedresultsfromtwelvecoupledclimatemodelstoproducecompositeprojectionsofthedurationofopenwaterintheChukchiandBeaufortseasat decadalintervalsfrom201002050andin2090Forwatersnorthofthe70degNopen0water durationshiftsfrom304monthsin2010toaprojected~5monthsby2040Projectedopen0 waterdurationisaboutonemonthlongeralongthesamelatitudesintheChukchiSeacomparedwiththeBeaufortSeawithuncertaintyofaboutplusmn1monthestimatedfromtherangeofmodelresultsAllmodelsprojectedopen0waterdurationtoexpandquicklyoverthe nextthreedecadeswhichwillimpactregionaleconomicaccessandpotentiallyalterecosystemsYetthePacificArcticregionwillremaincoveredwiththinfirst0yearicefrom JanuarythroughMayintothesecondhalfofthecenturyduetoseasonallackofsunlight

22Changesinprimaryproductionandoceanacidification

Thedramaticlossofsea0iceextentandvolumehasresultedinaconcomitantincreaseinlightpenetrationintheupperoceanacrosstheArcticGiventhethinningandarealreductionof seaiceafundamentalquestionariseshavethesechangesfosteredanincreaseinmarineprimaryproductionSpecificallyisthePacificArcticregionmoreproductivethanitwasthreedecadesagoIntheAtlanticArcticLeuetal(2011)measuredprimaryproductionby bothicealgaeandphytoplanktonincontrastingyears(2007008)ofsea0icecoverinaSvalbardfjordandconcludedthatearliericebreakupcorrespondedwithearlieronsetofa phytoplanktonbloomSimilarlyTremblayetal(2012)reportincreasedprimaryproductionfor2007008associatedwithextremesea0iceretreatsandincreasedupwellingatstations locatedsouthandeastofBanksIslandinthesoutheasternBeaufortSeaButcanconclusions drawnfrommeasurementssorestrictedinspaceandtimebeextrapolatedtolargerarcticregionsUsingsatelliteimageryArrigoandvanDijken(2015)investigatedchangesinseaice atbothregionalandbasinscalesfrom199802012andestimatedhowthesechangeshaveimpactedratesofnetprimaryproduction(NPP)byphytoplanktonTheyreportthatannual NPPincreased30duringthisperiodwiththelargestincreasesontheinteriorshelves (includingtheEastSiberianandBeaufort)andsmallerincreasesoninflowshelves(includingtheChukchi)OutflowshelveseitherexhibitednochangeinannualNPPoradeclineperhaps indicatingthatnutrientshadbeenconsumedfurtherupstreamIncreasedannualNPPwasoftenbutnotalwaysassociatedwithreducedsea0iceextentandresultantlonger phytoplanktongrowingseason

HumanactivitieshaveincreasedtheatmosphericCO2concentrationbyabout40sincethebeginningoftheindustrialageanditisestimatedthattheoceanhasabsorbedmorethan25

23

ofthetotalanthropogenicemissions(Mathisetal2015)TheoceanicuptakeofCO2triggersaseriesofchemicalreactionsinthesurfaceoceanthatreducespHandresultsinocean acidification(OA)InshortOAmakesseawatercorrosivetocalciumcarbonatemineralswhichmanymarineorganismsrelyonforbodystructuresHigh0latitudeoceanshave naturallylowcarbonateconcentrationssoareconsideredtobemorevulnerabletotheimpactsofOAbecauseadditionalcarbonatelossrepresentsamuchgreaterproportionalchangetothesystemInanovelstudyMathisetalprovideariskassessmentofOAimpacts tocommercialandtraditionalfisheriesfocusedonshellfishsalmonandfinfishTheresultant indexsuggeststhatwhilethenorthernBeringSeaisatmediumriskfromOAimpactsto fisheriesPacificArcticwatersnorthoftheSewardPeninsulaarecurrentlyatlowriskduelargelytoalackofdependenceonthesefoodsources

3)Lower)Trophic)Level)Communities)signals)from)direct)and)indirect)sampling

ThepredominantconceptualmodelframinghowmarineecosystemsinthePacificArctic respondtoreducedseaiceisbasedonchangesanticipatedfromashiftinpelagic0benthic coupling(Fig4)

Figure)4))Generalized)conceptual)model)depicting)the)influence)of)sea)ice)on)pelagicVbenthic)coupling)on) Pacific)Arctic)continental)shelves)

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OnthebroadshelvesthatcomprisemuchofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemnewprimaryproductionfromsea0icealgaeandphytoplanktonbloomsfallstotheseafloortosupportrich benthiccommunities(Grebmeier2012)Asseaicethinsandretreatsearlierintheseasonitisanticipatedthatearlierandlargerphytoplanktonbloomswillswitchfromabenthic0 dominatedtoapelagic0dominatedmarineecosystemThisshiftwillcascadethroughthesystemsupportingnovelcommunitiesofsecondaryandtertiaryconsumers(zooplanktonandforagefishes)anduppertrophiclevelmarinebirdsandmammalsIndeedGrebmeieret al(2006)suggestedthatthistypeofecosystemshiftisalreadyunderwayinthemarinecommunitiesofthenorthernBeringSeaThePacificArcticisoftendescribedasabenthic0 dominatedmarineecosystemonethatdoesnotsupportalargebiomassorspeciesdiversityoffishesAdescriptionofconditionsthathavefosteredexistingbenthichotspotsoffersa solidfoundationforassessingfuturechangeswhileanaccountingoftheexistingcommunitiesofmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsprovidesastartingpointuponwhichtobuildalong0termrecord)

31Benthichotspotsandmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitats

ArecordofextantconditionsiskeytointerpretingmarineecosystemresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingnowevidentinthePacificArcticSucharecordexistsforfourbenthic lsquohotspotrsquocommunitiesinthenorthernBeringandChukchiseas(Grebmeieretal2015a)but notformarinefishesLong0termsamplingofbenthicmacrofaunalcommunitiesindicatesthatthebenthichotspotshavemaintainedconsistentlyhighbiomassforuptofourdecadesdueto reoccurrenceofseasonallyreliablemoderate0to0highwatercolumnproductioncoupledwithexportofcarbonfromoverlyingwaterstotheseafloorUppertrophiclevelbenthivorestargetpreyaggregationsineachofthehotspotsOverallbottom0upforcingbyhydrography andfoodsupplytothebenthosinfluencespersistenceandcompositionofbenthicpreywhichinturninfluencestheuppertrophiclevelspeciescompositionandseasonaloccurrence Whenconsistentlysampledintandemthesebenthos0benthivoreconnectionscanfacilitate useofUTLspeciesassentinelsofshiftsinpreycompositionandabundance(Mooreetal2014)

Sincethe2000stherehavebeenahostofArcticmarinefishsurveysintheChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasprecipitatedbybothscientificinterestintheimpactsofclimatechangeandcommercialinterestinoilandgasdevelopment(Logerwelletal2015)Resultsfrom thesesurveysprovideanovelopportunitytocompareArcticfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsrangingfromlagoonsandbeachestobenthicandpelagiccontinental shelfwatersAsynthesisofdatafromthesesurveysrevealedmoresimilaritiesthandifferencesinhabitatusebetweenthetwoseasForexamplenearshorehabitatisusedbyallageclassesofforagefishesandisalsoanurseryareaforotherspeciesinboththeChukchiand westernBeaufortseasNotablysomecommercialspeciesmaybeexpandingtheirrangenorthtothesewatersincludingchinooksalmon(Oncorhynchustshawytscha)walleyepollock (Gaduschalcogrammus)andflatfishes(Pleuronectidae)Inadditionasynthesisofinformationonrelativeabundanceandageofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)andsaffroncod

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(Eleginusgracilis)bothkeypreyspeciesinArcticfoodwebssupportedthedevelopmentoflifehistoryanddistributionmodelsthatwillinformfutureresearchontrophicdynamicsin thePacificArcticsector

32Inferencesofmarineecosystemshiftsfromsealsseabirdsandseaducks

Additionalinformationregardingtheimpactoflsquonewnormalrsquobiophysicalconditionsonlowertrophiclevelspeciescanbeinferredfromshiftsinthedietandbodyconditionofmarine mammalsandbirdsCrawfordetal(2015)comparedthedietandconditionofringedseals(Pusahispida)andbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)harvestedintheAlaskanBeringand Chukchiseasduringhistorical(197501984)andrecent(200302012)periodsTheyfoundthe proportionoffishinthedietofbothspeciesincreasedintherecentreduced0iceperiodcomparedtothehistoricalperiodInadditionringedsealsgrewfasterhadthickerblubber andmaturedtwoyearsearlierBeardedsealshadthickerblubberintherecentperiodbut didnotmanifesttheotherchangesreportedfortheringedsealsAlthoughanumberofthe comparisonswerenotstatisticallysignificanttakentogethertheseobservationssuggestgreaterfishavailabilityintheAlaskanBering0Chukchimarineecosystemsupportinggood bodyconditionintheseals

AsinthesealpaperDivokyetal(2015)parsedalong0termdatasetintorecent(200302012)andhistorical(197501984)periodstocompareoceanographicconditionsnestlingdietandfledgingsuccessatablackguillemot(Cepphusgryllemandtii)breedingcolonyinthewestern BeaufortSeaFrom15Julyto1Septemberseaiceretreatedanaverageof18kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof958kmfromthecolonyduringthehistoricalperiodwhileinthe recentperiodiceretreataveraged98kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof5069kmSeasurfacetemperaturenearthecolonyincreasedby29⁰CbetweenthetwoperiodsWhileArcticcodcomprisedover95ofthepreyprovidedtonestlingsinthehistoricalperiodthis proportiondecreasedtolt5ofthenestlingdietduringmostyearsintherecentperiodwhendemersalsculpin(Cottidae)comprisedthemajorityofthedietTheshiftawayfrom Arcticcodwasassociatedwithafive0foldincreaseintherateofnestlingstarvationand reductionsinnestlinggrowthandfledgingmassConverselyannualadultsurvivalduringthe nonbreedingseason(September0May)showednosignificantdifferencebetweenthetwo periodssuggestingnochangeintheavailabilityofArcticcodorinoverallpreyavailabilityto blackguillemotsintheirBeringSeawinteringarea

IncontrasttoarelianceonpelagicpreyLovvornetal(2015)investigatedpotentialclimate0 relatedlimitstobenthicfeedingbyseaducksalongtheirmigrationcorridorinthenortheasternChukchiSeaKingeiders(Somateriaspectabilis)primarilyeatclams(bivalves) duringmigrationandrecentsamplinghasshownthatdenseclamassemblagesoccuronlyinspecificlocationsalongthemigrationcorridorSeaicecanpreventeidersfromreachingtheseprimefeedingsiteswithsatellitedataforApril‒May(2001‒2013)showingthataccess canvaryfrom0‒100InawarmingandincreasinglyvariableclimateaccesstobenthicfeedingsitesmaybefurthererodedbytheeffectsofwindsonunconsolidatediceThese

26

resultsunderscoretheimportanceofmaintainingarangeofbenthicfeedingareasthroughoutthemigrationcorridortoensurepreyavailabilitytotheeiderseachyear)

4)Upper)Trophic)Level)Species)marine)birds)and)mammals)as)ecosystem)sentinels

Astoppredatorsmarinebirdsandmammalsmustadapttochangesintheirhabitatsresultingfromphysicalforcingandtherebycanserveassentinelstoecosystemshifts(Mooreetal2014MooreandGulland2014)ResponsesofUTLspeciestoalteredhabitatscanbe categorizedasextrinsicincludingshiftsinrangemigratorytiming(phenology)orregionsofhighabundance(hotspots)orintrinsicincludingchangesindietbodyconditionand chemicalcomposition(Fig5)

Figure)5)Marine)birds)and)mammals)are)upper)trophic)level)(UTL))species)that)reflect)ecosystem) alterations)by)changes)in)habitat)use)(extrinsic))and)body)condition)(intrinsic))revealing)fundamental) changes)in)marine)ecosystems)

Responsesareinter0relatedsuchthatashiftinrangephenologyoruseofhotspotswillbe reflectedinchangesindietbodyconditionandchemistryItisthisconnectionthatallowsus

27

todetectecosystemreorganizationbytrackingchangesintheecologyandphysiologyofUTL speciesAlthoughtherehavebeennocoordinatedlong0termstudiesofUTLspeciesinthe PacificArcticexaminingthisconnectionasynthesisofinformationfromvisualsurveyssatellitetaggingofindividualsandyear0roundacousticdetectionsprovidesanecological foundationthatcanprovideabaselinetoinformfutureinvestigations

41Seasonaloccurrencehotspothabitatsandacousticecology

Kuletzetal(2015)depictspatialpatternsofrelativeabundanceofseabirdsandmarinemammalsinsummerandfallderivedfromsixyearsofvisualsurveysintheeasternChukchi andwesternBeaufortseasUsingstatisticalspatialanalysistoolshotspotsforseabirdswalrusandgraywhaleswereidentifiedintheChukchiSeawhilehotspotsforbowheadwhalesandsealsweredescribednearBarrowCanyonandalongtheBeaufortSeashelfand slopeHotspotsforbelugasoccurredinboththeChukchiandBeaufortseasInsummerthreehotspotsweresharedbybothseabirdsandmarinemammalsintheChukchiSeawaters offshoreWainwrightsouthofHannaShoalandatthemouthofBarrowCanyonOnlytheBarrowCanyonhotspotwasoccupiedthroughthefallSharedhotspotswerecharacterized bystrongfrontscausedbyupwellingandcurrentswhichcanservetoaggregatepreyUsingadifferentapproachCittaetal(2015)providedetailedanalysisoftheseasonalmovementsandhabitatusebyasinglespeciesthroughoutoneyearLocationsfrom54bowheadwhales (Balaenamysticetus)obtainedbysatellitetelemetryfrom200602012wereusedtoidentifya totalofsixcore0useareasintheBeaufort(3)Chukchi(1)andnorthernBering(2)seas Takentogetherthetimingofuse(phenology)andphysicalcharacteristics(oceanographyseaiceandwinds)associatedwitheachareadescribeaseasonalcircuitbythewhalesthroughareasthoughttosupportelevatedpreydensities

Passiveacousticsamplinghasbecomeacommonyear0roundtooltodetectcallingmarine mammalsinarcticseas(Mooreetal2006Staffordetal2012)Since2007therehasbeenanespeciallystrongsamplingeffortassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationinthenortheast ChukchiandwesternBeaufortseas(egHannayetal2013 httpwwwafscnoaagovnmmlcetaceanchaozphp)Theserecorderdeployments augmentalong0standingacousticstudyinthecentralBeaufortSea(Blackwelletal2007)andmorerecentdeploymentsintheBeringStraitregion(KStaffordperscomm)HeretoforeresearchersconductedeachofthesestudiesindependentlyofoneanotherClark etal(2015)presentsanovelsynthesisofthecombinedoutputfromsixresearcheffortsusingfourtypesofrecordersandavarietyofsub0samplingandanalysisschemestodescribean lsquoacousticyearrsquointhelifeofthebowheadwhaleDetectionsofbowheadcallsfrom20sitesextendingover2300kmfromthenorthernBeringSeatothesoutheastBeaufortSeawere combinedovera140monthperiod(200902010)todescribewhaleoccurrenceacrosstheir rangeThespatialandtemporalvariabilityinsoundlevelswithinthefrequencybandofbowheadwhaleswasalsoquantifiedThelowestunderwatersoundlevelsoccurredfromlate NovemberuntilMayintheChukchiSeaDuringwinter200902010singingbowheadwhaleselevatedbroadbandsoundlevelsforroughly38daysinthenorthernBeringSeafollowedby

28

asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

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ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

31

Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

32

(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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47

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GeorgeJCBadaJZehJScottLBrownSEOharaTampSuydamR1999Ageandgrowthestimatesofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)viaasparticacid racemizationCanadianJournalofZoology775710580

GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgress inOceanography1362500262

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GrebmeierJMMooreSE Overland JEFrey KEandGradinger R2010BiologicalresponsetorecentPacificArcticseaiceretreatsEOS91(18)1610168

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HillVArdynaMLeeSHVarelaDEinpressDecadaltrendsinphytoplankton productioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

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MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

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SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

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AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

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SymposiumAnchorageAK

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Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 4: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

Contents)

ListofFiguresv

ListofTablesv

Introduction6 Background7

Objectivesandmethods10 Objectives10 Methods10 Taskframework10 Taskdetail11 SOARPhase1andSOARPhase213

Results13 FoundationaltasksSciencesteeringcommitteeandworkshop13 TheSOARSciencesteeringcommittee13 SOARWorkshopndashMarch201214

Scienceproductandcommunicationtasks16 Peer0reviewedpublicationsmdashPhase1 16Peer0reviewedpublicationsmdashPhase2 18presentationsandpostersatscientificmeetings20 Othercommunicationofsynthesisapproachandproducts 20

Synthesissummaryanddiscussion20 SOARPhaseI20 SOARPhaseII34 OverallSOARContextandconclusion44

Literaturecited46

AppendixAndashListofSOAR2012workshopattendees54

AppendixBndashListofSOARcontributorsandinstitutions56

AppendixCndashListofSOARcontributorpresentationsatscientificmeetingsworkshopsandwebinars58

4

List)of)Figures)

Figure1Mapofstudyareashowingprincipalcurrents(redlines)andmeansea0icemaximum (spring)andminimum(fall)extent(MooreandStabeno2015)7

Figure2CoverofthefirstSOARspecialissueProgressinOceanographyVol13616

Figure3HighlightsofrecentbiophysicalchangesinthePacificArcticmarineecosystem21

Figure4Generalizedconceptualmodeldepictingtheinfluenceofseaiceonpelagic0benthiccoupling onPacificArcticcontinentalshelves24

Figure5Marinebirdsandmammalsareuppertrophiclevel(UTL)speciesthatreflectecosystem alterationsbychangesinhabitatuse(extrinsic)andbodycondition(intrinsic)revealing fundamentalchangesinmarineecosystems27

Figure6ComponentsoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelndashlinkingpelagic0benthic couplingandadvectivemodelstoderiveaseasonalmodelforthePacificArcticframedby contiguousdomains32

Figure7TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodeldepictingseasonalbiophysicalpulsesin threeecologicaldomainsacrossalatitudinalgradientoverthecourseofanannualcycleinthe PacificArcticregion(MooreandStabeno2015)33

Figure8Paperscomprisingtheforthcoming20182ndSOARspecialissue(tobepublishedinDeep0 SeaResearchPartII)identifiedbyleadauthorandorganizedbyecologicaldomainsthatframe theArcticMarinePulsesmodel(Mooreetalinpress)35

List)of)Tables)

Table1ListofScienceSteeringCommitteemembersandinstitutions13

Table2ListofSOARSSCTeleconferencesandin0personmeetings14

Table3Papersincludedinthe2015SOARspecialissueofProgressinOceanography17

Table4PaperstoappearintheSOAR2ndPhasespecialissueinDeepSeaResearchPartII18

5

INTRODUCTION)

ChangestothephysicalenvironmentoftheUSArcticOuterContinentalShelf(OCS)aredrivingshiftsinthedistributionandbehaviorofanumberofprotectedmarinemammalspeciesthatinhabitthosewatersThesamespeciesmaybeaffectedbyoilandgasactivities withinOCSPlanningAreaswithstrongpotentialfordeleteriousinteractionsbetweennaturalandhumaninducedphenomenaEnvironmentalregulations(egNEPAtheESAandthe MMPA)requiretheBureauofOceanEnergyManagement(BOEM)toevaluatewhetherand howfederalactionsassociatedwithoilandgasdevelopmentmayaffecttheseprotectedspeciesandthemarineenvironmentonwhichtheydependInformationonoceancirculation andhydrographyisusefulfortheseevaluationsaswellasforinputintomodelsusedtopredicttheoutcomeofoilspillsHoweverphysicsalonecannotpredicthowprotected speciesandthemarineecosystemsuponwhichtheydependwillrespondtonaturalandanthropogenicforcingGivenrecentinvestmentsbyBOEMotherfederalagencies(egNOAA USGSNSF)andtheoilandgasindustryininterdisciplinarybiologicalandoceanographicresearchinthePacificArcticregion(PAR)asynthesisofresultsofcompletedandongoingstudieswillhelptoinformmanagementdecision0makersandtoguidefutureresearch activities

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)PhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArcticprojectprovidesaframeworkforasynthesisofscientificinformationdrawnfromcompleted andongoingmarineresearchinthePacificArcticregionTheSOARprojectaimstoincreasescientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsbenthicorganismslowertrophicpreyspecies(foragefishandzooplankton)andmarinemammal distributionandbehaviorinthePARwithparticularemphasisonthenortheasternChukchiSeaSOARfurtheraimstoenhanceourcapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographic featuressuchascurrentsupwellingandiceleadsandassociatedchangesinthebehaviorof marinemammalsandtheirpreyintheregionandtoeffectivelytransmitfindingsofsynthesis activitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArcticresidentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

InthisreportweprovidedetailonthebackgroundmethodsandresultsoftheSOARprojectandsummarizethescientificoutcomesacrossthefirstandsecondphasesofSOAR

6

BACKGROUND

ThePacificArcticregioncompriseswatersnorthofStMatthewIsland(60degNlatitude)inthenorthernBeringChukchiBeaufortandEastSiberianseas(Grebmeieretal2010)Theregionisanin0flowsystemtotheArctic(Carmacketal2006)withthreedistinctwater massesflowingnorththroughBeringStraitthenbathymetricallychanneledacrosstheChukchiSeashelfandintotheBeaufortSeabasin(Fig1)Theannualadvanceandretreatof seaiceisthekeyphysicaldriverofprimaryproductiontrophicinteractionsandhumanaccessandactivitiesovertheentirePARThephysicalclimateofthePARischangingrapidlydrivingchangeacrosstheregionalmarineecosystems(GrebmeierandMaslowski2014)

Figure)1))Map)of)study)area)showing)principal)currents)(red)lines))and)mean)seaVice)maximum)(spring)) and)minimum)(fall))extent)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

Thesummerminimumsea0iceextentin2007and2008coveredanareathatwas37less thanthearealcoverageoftwodecadespriorand20lessthanthepreviousminimumcoveragein2005(Stroeveetal2008)Thepaceofthesechangeswasunexpectedasthe consensusoftheclimateresearchcommunitywasthatsuchchangeswouldnotbeseenfor

7

another30years(WangandOverland2009)Thereductioninsea0iceareaopensupvastnew regionsoftheArcticOceantoincreasedabsorptionofsunlightandstorageofheatThisheat isreturnedtotheatmosphereinthefollowingautumnresultinginincreasedArctic temperaturesofmorethan5degCextendingthesea0icefreeseasonthroughNovemberandcausingchangesinwindpatternsThesephysicalchangestotheArcticsystemappeartobe irreversible

Marinemammalsrespondtochangesinseaiceaccordingtotheirdependencyonitforvitallifefunctions(MooreandHuntington2008Kovacsetal2010)InthePARthedramaticchangesinseasonalsea0iceextentandtypeappeartohaveprecipitatedchangesinmarine mammalmigrationandfeedingpatternsForexamplelargeaggregationsofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)feedroutinelynearBarrowfromlatesummerthroughautumna phenomenonpreviouslyconsideredlsquosporadicrsquo(Mooreetal2010)Graywhales(Eschrichtius robustus)consideredatemperatespeciescommonlyfeednearthebowheadwhaleswhereas thetwospeciesappearedtobespatiallyandtemporallysegregatedintheearly1980s(Mooreetal1986)

Inadditiontothechangesinmarinemammalecologyanorthwardshiftofsomefishspecies(egSpencer2008MueterandLitzow2008RandandLogerwell2010)andtheprevalenceof euphausiids(Thysanoessaspp)indicatedthatthetrophicstructureofthePARischangingEuphausiidsareimportantpreyforbowheadandgraywhales(Ashjianetal2010Bluhmet al2007)andpossiblyalsoforicesealsEuphausiidsarethoughttobetransportedintothe PARfromthenorthernBeringSeaasreproductionhasneverbeenobservedinwatersnorthofBeringStrait(Berlineetal2008)Coupledtothisisthegeneraldearthofinformationon distributionandabundanceofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)inthePARaspeciesconsideredessentialintheshorttrophicfoodwebscommontopolarmarineecosystems(Ainleyand DeMaster1990)Examinationandsynthesisofhownaturalandhuman0associated environmentalvariabilityimpactsmarinemammalsrequiresinvestigationofthebiophysical changestotrophicstructureanddynamicsoftheirfishandinvertebrateprey

During200502015BOEMmadeextensiveinvestmentsinmarinemammalandrelated oceanographicstudiesintheeasternhalfofthePAR(ietheInternationalDateLineeastto theCanadianBeaufort)Datafromthosestudieswillconsiderablyaugmentthebodyof knowledgefortheregionbutinterpretationwouldbeconstrainedifresultsarenot integratedwithotherresearcheffortsAddressingthisintegrationwasthegenesisofthe SOARprojecttoundertakesynthesisofresearchfromongoingBOEMstudiesinthePARwhichincludebutarenotlimitedtothefollowing

bull BowheadWhaleFeedingVariabilityintheWesternAlaskanBeaufortSeaSatelliteTrackingofBowheadWhaleMovementsFeedingampOceanography

bull PassiveAcousticDetectionandMonitoringofEndangeredWhalesintheArctic

8

bull EcosystemObservationsintheChukchiSeaBiophysicalMooringandClimateModeling

bull ChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea(COMIDA)ChemistryandBenthos

bull DistributionandRelativeAbundanceofMarineMammalsCOMIDAAerialSurveys

bull HannaShoalEcosystemStudy

bull MonitoringtheDistributionofArcticWhales(alsoknownasBWASP)

bull WalrusHabitatUseinthePotentialDrillingArea

bull PinnipedMovementsandForagingBeardedSeals

bull AssessingReproductionandBodyConditionoftheRingedSealnearSachsHarbourNorthwestTerritoryCanadathroughaHarvest0basedSamplingProgram

bull ArcticmarineresearchstudiessupportedthroughNationalOceanPartnership Program(NOPP)towhichBOEMcontributes

bull StudiesconductedbytheAlaskaDepartmentofFishandGame(ADFampG)andtheNorthSlopeBorough(NSB)underBOEMrsquosCoastalImpactAssistanceProgram(CIAP)

Dataandresultsfromrelated(butnotBOEM0funded)studiesthatalsocontributetotheSOAR includebutarenotlimitedtothefollowing

bull NOAArsquosRUSALCAprogram(USA0RussiabilateralstudyoftheChukchiSea)

bull StudiessupportedbyNSFOfficeofPolarPrograms

bull StudiessupportedbytheLandscapeConservationCooperativeNetwork

bull StudiessupportedbytheAlaskaDepartmentofFishampGametheUSGeologicalSurveyandbytheUSFishampWildlifeService

bull Studiessupportedbyoilandgasindustry(egShellConocoPhillipsStatOilBritishPetroleum)relatedtomitigationandmonitoringofeffectsofoffshoreexplorationanddevelopmentonmarinemammalsandtheirenvironmentegtheChukchiSea EnvironmentalStudiesProgram(CSESP)

)

)

)

9

OBJECTIVES)AND)METHODS)

)

OBJECTIVES

)

TheSOARprojectfocusedonthreeobjectives

1 Increasescientificunderstandingoftheinter0andintra0relationshipsofoceanographicconditionsbenthicorganismslowertrophicpreyspecies(foragefishand zooplankton)andmarinemammaldistributionandbehaviorinthePARwithparticularemphasisontheChukchiSealeaseareas

2 Enhancecapabilitytopredictchangesinoceanographicfeaturessuchascurrents upwellingandiceleadsandassociatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARwithparticularemphasisonthenortheasternChukchiSea

3 EffectivelytransmitfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

)

METHODS

TASKFRAMEWORK

TheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojectwastouseavailableanalyticalandmodelingapproachestoidentifyandtesthypothesesthatcrossscientificdisciplinesSOARprovidesa frameworktosupportasynthesisofscientificinformationdrawnfromcompletedandongoingmarineresearchinthePacificArcticregionTheframeworkconsistsofsixtasks

1 establishaScienceSteeringCommitteetoprovideleadershipandoversightforthe synthesisproject

2 conductaSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)WorkshopinvolvingPIsfromall relevantresearchprogramsto

i identifyanddevelopsciencesynthesisthemesii detailrequireddataandanalysesforeachtheme iii formAnalyticalTeamstosupporttheworkofeachsynthesisthemeiv listanticipatedworkproducts(iepeer0reviewedpapersandpresentations)

and

10

v deriveameanstoarchivedataandmeta0datausedinsupportofthesynthesis 3 supportAnalyticalTeamdataintegrationandanalysisincludingtheme0based

meetingsasneeded 4 trackprogressofanalyticalworkviabi0monthlyteleconferencesandannualSCCAT0

updateworkshops 5 producescienceproductsincludingpresentationsatprofessionalmeetingsand

publicationofpeer0reviewedpapersasaSpecialIssueamporThemeSectionsinanappropriatescientificjournaland

6 communicatesynthesisapproachandfindingstolocalArcticresidentsresourcemanagersnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

TASKDETAIL

TASK)1)))ESTABLISH)AND)CONVENE)SCIENTIFIC)STEERING)COMMITTEE)

LeadershipandguidanceofthesynthesisprojectwasprovidedbyaScienceSteeringCommittee(SSC)formedofseniorscientistswithdecades0longexperienceinthePacific ArcticAttheinitialSSCmeetingthegroupidentifiedrelevantprojectsdeveloped provisionalsciencethemesandidentifiedpotentialparticipantsandleadersfor interdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeamsformedatthesubsequentSOARWorkshop

TASK)2)))PLAN)AND)CONDUCT)SOAR)WORKSHOP)

Amulti0disciplinarySOARWorkshopwasthekeystoneinitialproductofSOARWorkshop participantsinventoriedavailabledataandevaluateditssufficiencytoaddressspecificcross0 disciplinaryhypothesesandquestionsprovisionallyidentifiedassciencethemesbytheSSCTheprovisionallistofthemeswasmodifiedandnewthemesemergedattheworkshopOnce sciencethemeswereagreeduponinterdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeams(AT)wereformedto conductthecoreworkoftheSOARprojectInterdisciplinaryATstheninitiatedthe developmentofshortproposalstosupporttheworkrequiredfordataintegrationanalyses andormodeling

TASK)3))SUPPORT)DATA)INTEGRATION)ANALYSIS)AND)MODELING

Inresponsetoproposalsdetailingtheworktobeperformedtimelineandproducts anticipatedmdashandincoordinationwithSSCreviewmdashfundingwasprovidedviacontractfor selectedATstointegratedataconductanalysesrunmodelsandordeveloppublicationsInsomecasesdirectfundingwasnotneededandin0kindsupportwasprovidedintheformofreviewcoordinationandpublicationfacilitationAsubsetofATsintegratedtheirworkwith

11

on0goingoceanographicprograms(egRUSALCAandtheDistributedBiologicalObservatory[DBO])andinsomecasestheATsconductedfollow0ontheme0basedmeetingsorintegrativeworkshopsasthebestmeanstoaccomplishdataintegrationandsynthesisontheirtopic OtherATschosetointegratetheirworkviavideoorteleconferenceswiththebulkofcontract fundinggoingtowardssupportforagraduatestudentpost0docorotherresearcherto accomplishthesynthesistasksidentified)

TASK)4))TRACK)PROGRESS)OF)ANALYTICAL)WORK)

ATleadshadprimaryresponsibilityfortrackingtheprogressofworkontheirsciencethemeandmembersoftheSSCwerealsoaskedtofollowtheprogressoftheworktowardsuseful productsTrackingtooktheformofcontactatregularintervals(egbimonthly)viae0mailorphonesolicitingspecificinformationonproblemsencounteredandadherencetotimelineforproductcompletionSummariesofprogressoneachthemeappearedinQuarterlyReportsto theBOEM

TASK)5))SCIENCE)PRODUCTS))

ThecoreproductoftheSOARprojectwasaseriesofsciencepresentationsandpeer0reviewedpapersdescribingcurrentandprojectedstatusofthePARmarineecosystemAnnual presentationsontheapproachandprogressoftheSOARwereprovidedatplenarysessionsof theAlaskaMarineScienceSymposiumandadditionalpresentationsweremadeatother sciencevenuessuchastheAGUOceanSciencesmeetingSciencepaperswerethenpublishedinspecialissuesofpeer0reviewedjournalswiththeprojectPIsandcoordinatorservingas GuestEditors

TASK)6))COMMUNICATION)OF)SYNTHESIS)APPROACH)amp)PRODUCTS)

Inadditiontosciencepapersandpresentationsresultsofthesyntheseswereprovidedto communitiesinelectronicandhardcopyformatandopportunitiestospeakwithArcticresidentsweresoughtatco0managementmeetingsandotherforaAwebsitewasdeveloped providinggraphicsandbriefsummariesforgeneraluseandlinkingtootherrelevantsitesResultsofthesynthesiswerecommunicatedtovariousnationalandinternationalArctic Programs(egNOAAArcticReportCardSEARCHISACPAGIASCandArcticCouncilWorkingGroups)

12

SOARPHASE1ANDSOARPHASE2

Task5(ScienceProducts)wasoriginallyenvisagedtoresultinaspecialvolumeofpeer0reviewedpaperspossiblysupplementedbyanadditionalsmallersetofpapersinatheme sectionorothersimilaroutletHoweverfollowingcompletionofthefirstphaseofSOARculminatinginthe2015specialissueofProgressinOceanography(MooreandStabeno2015 seeResultssectionbelowformoreinformation)therewasahighlevelofinterestinextendingSOARtoincludeadditionalsynthesisThereforethesecondphaseofSOARwas developedbuildingfromaninformalmid0projectworkshopandresultinginasecondfullspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchIIFurtherdetailisprovidedinthefollowingsections

RESULTS)

FOUNDATIONALTASKSSCIENCESTEERINGCOMMITTEEANDWORKSHOP

THESOARSCIENCESTEERINGCOMMITTEE

AScienceSteeringCommittee(SCC)comprisedofscientistsandAlaskancoastalcommunityrepresentativeswasestablished(Table1)ThefirstoffiveannualSSCmeetingswasheldfrom103November2011attheWatertownHotelinSeattleWATheSSCidentifiedrelevantprojects anddatasourcesdevelopedthreedraftsciencethemesandrelatedquestionsandidentified potentialparticipantsandleadersforassociatedinterdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeamsthatwould beformedatSOARScienceWorkshopMultiplesubsequentmeetingsfurtherdevelopedthe sciencethemesandprovidedguidanceforSOARtasks(Table2)

)

Table)1))List)of)Science)Steering)Committee)members)and)institutions)

ScienceSteeringCommitteeMember

Affiliation Location

RobynAngliss NOAANationalMarineMammalLaboratory

SeattleWA

CarinAshjian WoodsHoleOceanographic Institution

WoodsHoleMA

ChristopherClark CornellUniversity IthacaNY

13

JacquelineGrebmeier UniversityofMarylandCenterforEnvironmental Studies

SolomonsMD

CraigGeorge NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EskimoWhaling

ComissionKawerak NomeAK

SueMoore NOAANMFS SeattleWA ChadJay USGeologicalSurvey AnchorageAK TimRagan MarineMammalCommission WashingtonDC PhyllisStabeno NOAAPMEL SeattleWA RobertSuydam NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK TomWeingartner UniversityofAlaska0

Fairbanks FairbanksAK

)

Table)2)List)of)SOAR)SSC)Teleconferences)and)inVperson)meetings)

SOAR)SSC)Meeting) SSCTeleconference1

Date) 21September2011

SSCTeleconference2 18October2011 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingSeattleWA 11November2011 SSCTeleconference3 16February2012 SSCTeleconference4 6April2012 SOARMarchWorkshop 14016March2012 SSCTeleconference5 6July2012 SSCTeleconference6 6October2012 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 21January2013 SSCTeleconference7) 9April2013 SSCTeleconference8) 14November2013 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 20January2014 SSCTeleconference9) 12January2015 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 23January2015 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK(informal)) 26January2016

SOARWORKSHOPndashMARCH2012

TheSOARScienceWorkshopwasheldfrom14016March2012attheEganCenterinAnchorageAlaskaTheSOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandProjectCoordinatorallmembersoftheScienceSteeringCommitteeand42ofthe43invitedSOARContributorsattendedthe

14

workshopDraftScienceThemesandQuestionsdevelopedbytheSOARScienceSteeringCommitteewereprovidedtoparticipantsinadvanceoftheworkshopsummarizedas(i)EcosystemResponsetoBottom0upandorTop0downForcing(ii)MarineBirdsMammalsandFishasEcosystemSentinelsand(iii)AcousticEcology

TheprimarygoalsoftheScienceWorkshopwereto(1)refinetheDraftScienceThemesandQuestions(2)formresearchteamstoundertakeanalysisinsupportofdevelopmentofpeer0reviewedpapersand(3)developshortproposalstoidentifyprojectmilestonesandfinancialsupportrequiredtocompletesyntheticprojects

DayoneoftheworkshopconsistedofdisciplinarytalksinplenarysessiontoprovideallparticipantswiththecurrentstateofknowledgeineachareaofstudyDuringdaytwooftheworkshopsciencethemeswererevisedtoreflectgroupinputParticipantsdividedintothree theme0basedbreakoutgroupsandbegandevelopingsciencequestionstoproposeforSOARDaythreeoftheworkshopbeganwithaplenarysummaryofthepreviousdayrsquosprogress followedbybreakoutgroupstowriteandsubmitone0pageproposalsfortheprojects requestingfundingOntheafternoonofthethirddayanopen0sessionwasheldto communicateworkshopprogresstoBOEMscientistsandmanagerscolleaguesfromtheNorthPacificResearchBoardandAlaskaOceanObservingSystemindustryrepresentativesand otherinterestedpartiesFurtherdetailsoftheSOARWorkshopcanbefoundintheSOAR WorkshopReport(SheffieldGuyetal2012a)andseealsoSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)

15

SCIENCEPRODUCTANDCOMMUNICATIONTASKS

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE1 FollowingtheinitialSOARthemeselectionsandteamdevelopmentandincorporatinganextensivepeer0reviewphaseledbytheprojectPIsandcoordinatorthefirstphaseofthe SOARprojectculminatedinaspecialvolumeofProgressinOceanographypublishedinAugust 2015(Fig2Table3)Thisspecialissueincluded16fullpapersplusanintroductionpaper authoredbythetwoprojectPIs

Figure)2)Cover)of)the)first)SOAR)special) volume)published)in)Progress)in)

Oceanography)in)2015)

16

Table)3))Papers)included)in)the)2015)SOAR)special)issue)of)Progress)in)Oceanography)

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsofthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011 WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressinOceanography13612031 FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015Divergentpatternsofrecent seaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049 WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059 ArrigoKRvanDijkenGL2015ContinuedincreasesinArcticOceanprimaryproductionProgressinOceanography13660070 MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJNFeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091 GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarkeJTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSHLovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015EcosystemcharacteristicsandprocessesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114 LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132 CrawfordJAQuakenbushLTCittaJJ2015Acomparisonofringedandbeardedsealdietconditionandproductivitybetweenhistorical(1975ndash1984)andrecent(2003ndash2012)periodsintheAlaskanBeringandChukchiseasProgressinOceanography1361330150 DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarctic seaiceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161 LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015LimitstobenthicfeedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchangingseaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174 KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015SeasonalspatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareas ProgressinOceanography1361750200 CittaJJQuakenbushLTOkkonenSRDruckenmillerMLMaslowskiWClement0KinneyJGeorgeJCBrowerHSmallRJAshjianCJHarwoodLAHeide0Joslashrgensen MP2015Ecologicalcharacteristicsofcore0useareasusedbyBeringndashChukchindashBeaufort(BCB)bowheadwhales2006ndash2012ProgressinOceanography1362010222

17

ClarkCWBerchokCLBlackwellSBHannayDEJonesJPonirakisDStafford KM2015AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasProgressinOceanography1362230240 MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationshipbetweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249 GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgressinOceanography1362500262 HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015ChangeintheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE2

Followingthe2015publicationofthefirstSOARspecialissueinProgressinOceanography theSOARprojectSSCandparticipantsdecidedtopursuecoordinatethepublicationofasetofpapersinfullsecondspecialissueThosePhase2topicsandpaperleadswerediscussedat theannualSOARSSCmeetinginJanuary2015Baseduponsuggestionsatthismeeting102pageproposalswererequestedfromsuggestedpaperleadsandproposalswerethen subsequentlydevelopedintopublishedpapersThemajorityofpapersforthesecondspecial issuewerecompletedandinpressbytheendof2017(Table4)withfinalpublicationofthe completespecialissueinDeepSeaResearchIIndashTopicalStudiesinOceanographyexpectedby latesummer2018

Table)4))Papers)to)appear)in)the)SOAR)2nd)Phase)special)issue)published)in)Deep)Sea)Research)Part)II)

Corresponding) Author Manuscript)Title

SueMoore IntroductionTheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)Project

MuyinWang SeaiceandoceancharacteristicsintheChukchiSeabyselectedCMIP5modelsthepresentandthefuture

NicholasBond DiagnosisofphysicaloceanographiceventsintheChukchiSea usinganoceanreanalysis

VictoriaHill DecadaltrendsinphytoplanktonproductioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

18

JessicaCross FormationandtransportofcorrosivewaterinthePacificArcticRegion

LeeCooper DepositionpatternsontheChukchiShelfusingradionuclide inventoriesinrelationtosurfacesedimentcharacteristics

Matthew Druckenmiller

Trendsinsea0icecoverandupwellingpotentialwithinBowheadwhaleuseareasintheWesternArctic

KateStafford AcousticecologyofbowheadandbelugawhalesincoreuseareasintheBeaufortandChukchiSeas

JohnCitta Oceanographiccharacteristicsassociatedwithbowheadwhale movementsintheChukchiSea

JohnCitta SeasonaldistributionandoverlapofmarinemammalsintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseas

KimberlyRand UsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

ElizabethLogerwell Environmentaldriversofbenthicfishdistributioninandaround BarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwesternBeaufortSea

KathleenStafford BelugawhalesintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaasynthesisofavailableinformationontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StephenOkkonen Relationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskanBeaufortSea

MartinRobards UnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesintheAlaskanArcticPlace0basedcollaborationswithAlaskaNative communities

SueMoore TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)ModellinkingtemporalprocessestocontiguousdomainsinthePacificArctic

19

PRESENTATIONSANDPOSTERSATSCIENTIFICMEETINGS

SOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandcontributorsmademorethan50presentationsincludinginformationaboutthissynthesiseffortatavarietyofscientificmeetingsworkshopsandwebinarsAfulllistofthesepresentationsisprovidedinAppendixC

OTHERCOMMUNICATIONOFSYNTHESISAPPROACHANDPRODUCTS

TheSynthesisofArcticResearchwebsitelocatedathttpswwwpmelnoaagovsoar providesbackgroundinformationandup0to0datescienceproductinformationtostakeholders andthegeneralpublicThewebsitewillcontinuetobeliveandhostedbyNOAA

Severalpeer0reviewedpaperswerepublishedthatalsoappealtoamoregeneralortrans0 disciplineaudienceincludingSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)andSheffieldGuyetal(2016)SOARsynthesisresultswerefeaturedinnumerousnewspapersonlinefeaturesmagazines andmore

SYNTHESIS)SUMMARY)AND)DISCUSSION)

SOARPHASEI

ThefirstphaseofSOARresultedinfifteenpaperspublishedinaspecialissueofProgressin Oceanographyin2015(Table3)HereweprovideabroadoverviewanddiscussionofthepapersinthatspecialissuedrawnfromtheIntroductiontothatissue(MooreandStabeno 2015)

1 Introduction)

TheinitiationoftheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)projectcoincidedwiththerecognitionthatbiophysicalchangesinthePacificArcticregionweresoextremecomparedtotherecentpastthattheyacquiredthemonikerlsquonewnormalrsquo(Jeffriesetal2013) ConsequentlydescribingthebiophysicalpropertiesofthelsquonewlsquoPacificArcticmarineecosystemwasfoundationaltotheSOAReffortandthefocusoffivepapersinthefirstspecial issueExaminingbiologicalresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingthenbecamethetaskofresearchersfocusedonthestudyoflowertrophiclevel(LTL)communitiesanduppertrophiclevel(UTL)speciesTwopapersprovideintegratedresultsfromdirectsamplingofbenthic andfishcommunitieswhilethreepapersreportonchangesinLTLspeciesoccurrenceinferredbyshiftsinthedietsofsealsandmarinebirdsSixpapersfocusonUTLspecieswith fourpresentinginformationonseasonaloccurrenceinhotspotorcore0usehabitatsandtwo describingvariabilityinmarinemammalbodyconditioninthecontextofdecadal0scale

20

environmentalvariabilityTogetherthesepapersprovideasyntheticcontexttofocushypothesesunderpinningthenextdecadeofresearchinthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

2)Biophysics)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

ThePacificArcticmarineecosystemiscomprisedofinflowshelves(northernBeringandChukchiseas)coupledtointeriorshelves(EastSiberianandBeaufortseas)withthe contrastingbiophysicsofthesedomainssummarizedinCarmacketal(2006)Circulationon bothinflowandinteriorshelvesislinkedtopan0arcticteleconnectionmechanisms(egArcticOscillation)withinteriorshelvesalsostronglyinfluencedbytheseasonaloutflowof relativelywarmfreshwaterfromarcticriversEvaluatingecosystemstatusandtrendsinthePacificArcticwasthefocusofarecentbookwith10(of12)chaptersdevotedtoobservationsandmodelingoftheatmosphereoceanphysicsandchemistry(GrebmeierandMaslowski 2014)Thepapersinthefirstspecialissueaddtothatbodyofknowledgeespeciallywithregardtobiologicalresponsestobiophysicaldriversandinthiswaycontributetoamore holisticunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

21)PhysicalobservationsandopenwaterprojectionsinthelsquonewnormalrsquoPacificArctic

Recentobservations(200302013)ofenvironmentalchangesinthePacificArcticsupportthecontentionthatanewnormalclimateisemerging(Fig3Jeffriesetal2013Woodetal 2015)

Figure)3))Highlights)of)recent)biophysical)changes)in)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

21

Theiconicindicatorofthischangeisthedramaticsummertimelossofseaice(50byarea75byvolume)whichinsomeyears(eg2012)hasresultedinnearlyice0freeconditionsin theregionSpecificallysatellitedatafrom197902012reveallocalizedchangesinsea0ice occurrenceofupto0164daysyearintheCanadaBasinand0124daysyearintheBeaufort Seawhichacceleratedto0657daysyear(CanadaBasin)and01284daysyear(Beaufort Sea)duringthe200002012period(Freyetal2015)Multiyearseaicehasalmostentirelydisappearedwithinter0annualvariabilityiniceconcentrationlargelydrivenbywindforcing intheBeaufortSeaIntheCanadaBasindifferencesinannualseaiceareprimarilythermallydrivenwhilesea0iceextentisinfluencedbybothwindsandheatontheBeringSeashelf

Thesummeratmosphericpatternsinfluenceoceancirculationfreshwaterpathwaysand movementandmeltingofseaiceDuringthelastdecadetheintensificationoftheBeaufortHigh(OgiandWallace2012)resultedinanomaloussummerwindsTheseanomalouswinds togetherwiththelossofmulti0yeariceweretheprimaryfactorsthattransformedtheChukchiandnorthernBeaufortseasintoanopenwaterenvironment(Woodetal2015)InparticulartheeasternBeaufortSeaappearstobeparticularlysusceptibletoanomalouswindsthrough theireffectontheadvectionofwarmfreshwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumeInadditiontransportanomaliesintheBeringStraitaredeterminedbycompetinglarge0scale atmosphericpatternstheBeaufortHighandAleutianLow(Danielsonetal2014)NotablychangesinBeringStraitflowthroughcanimpacttheworldclimatefarbeyondtheBeringStraitandArcticregion(egHuetal2015)

Freyetal(2015)investigatetheinfluenceofthePacificDecadalOscillation(PDO)andtheArcticOscillation(AO)onthepersistenceofseaiceinsummerandwinterTheyfoundsignificantnegativecorrelationsbetweenseaiceonthesoutheasternBeringSeashelfandthe PDOinwinteraswellassignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweentheAOandsea0icecoverjustsouthofStLawrenceIslandSignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweenthePDOandsea iceintheCanadaBasin0CanadianArchipelagowerefoundinsummeraswellasbetweentheAOandseaiceintheChukchi0BeaufortseasThisnovelinvestigationofteleconnections betweenthePDOtheAOandsea0icecoverprovidesacriticalstepinunderstandinghow globalandregionalclimatepatternsinfluencethephysicsofthePacificArcticregion

Theunprecedentedlossofseaicehasresultedinatremendousincreaseinopen0water susceptibletorapidsolarheatingwithadditionalheatandfreshwaterprovidedbya50 increaseinPacificWaterinflowatBeringStraitfrom200102011(Woodgateetal2012 Woodetal2015)TheinfluenceofincreasedheatstoredintheChukchiandBeaufortseasis notwellunderstoodSuggestionsthatheatreleasedtotheatmosphereinlateautumnandwinterdrivesaspectsofmid0latitudeweatherremainspeculativelargelyduetotheshort timerecordavailable(Woodetal2015)FresheningoftheArcticOceanhasbeenoccurring atleastsincethe1990s(egGilesetal2012)Severalexplanationshavebeenproposed includingincreasedsea0icemeltfresherPacificWaterflowingthroughBeringStraitchanges inthemagnitudeofriverdischargeandthemeanstrengtheningoftheBeaufortHighInrecentyearsrelativelystrongeasterlywindshavebeencommonduetotheArctic0wide

22

patternofcirculationaroundanintensifiedBeaufortHighUndertheseconditionsfreshand warmwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumecanbelaterallytransportedfaroutintothe BeaufortSea(Woodetal2015)

WangandOverland(2015)comparedresultsfromtwelvecoupledclimatemodelstoproducecompositeprojectionsofthedurationofopenwaterintheChukchiandBeaufortseasat decadalintervalsfrom201002050andin2090Forwatersnorthofthe70degNopen0water durationshiftsfrom304monthsin2010toaprojected~5monthsby2040Projectedopen0 waterdurationisaboutonemonthlongeralongthesamelatitudesintheChukchiSeacomparedwiththeBeaufortSeawithuncertaintyofaboutplusmn1monthestimatedfromtherangeofmodelresultsAllmodelsprojectedopen0waterdurationtoexpandquicklyoverthe nextthreedecadeswhichwillimpactregionaleconomicaccessandpotentiallyalterecosystemsYetthePacificArcticregionwillremaincoveredwiththinfirst0yearicefrom JanuarythroughMayintothesecondhalfofthecenturyduetoseasonallackofsunlight

22Changesinprimaryproductionandoceanacidification

Thedramaticlossofsea0iceextentandvolumehasresultedinaconcomitantincreaseinlightpenetrationintheupperoceanacrosstheArcticGiventhethinningandarealreductionof seaiceafundamentalquestionariseshavethesechangesfosteredanincreaseinmarineprimaryproductionSpecificallyisthePacificArcticregionmoreproductivethanitwasthreedecadesagoIntheAtlanticArcticLeuetal(2011)measuredprimaryproductionby bothicealgaeandphytoplanktonincontrastingyears(2007008)ofsea0icecoverinaSvalbardfjordandconcludedthatearliericebreakupcorrespondedwithearlieronsetofa phytoplanktonbloomSimilarlyTremblayetal(2012)reportincreasedprimaryproductionfor2007008associatedwithextremesea0iceretreatsandincreasedupwellingatstations locatedsouthandeastofBanksIslandinthesoutheasternBeaufortSeaButcanconclusions drawnfrommeasurementssorestrictedinspaceandtimebeextrapolatedtolargerarcticregionsUsingsatelliteimageryArrigoandvanDijken(2015)investigatedchangesinseaice atbothregionalandbasinscalesfrom199802012andestimatedhowthesechangeshaveimpactedratesofnetprimaryproduction(NPP)byphytoplanktonTheyreportthatannual NPPincreased30duringthisperiodwiththelargestincreasesontheinteriorshelves (includingtheEastSiberianandBeaufort)andsmallerincreasesoninflowshelves(includingtheChukchi)OutflowshelveseitherexhibitednochangeinannualNPPoradeclineperhaps indicatingthatnutrientshadbeenconsumedfurtherupstreamIncreasedannualNPPwasoftenbutnotalwaysassociatedwithreducedsea0iceextentandresultantlonger phytoplanktongrowingseason

HumanactivitieshaveincreasedtheatmosphericCO2concentrationbyabout40sincethebeginningoftheindustrialageanditisestimatedthattheoceanhasabsorbedmorethan25

23

ofthetotalanthropogenicemissions(Mathisetal2015)TheoceanicuptakeofCO2triggersaseriesofchemicalreactionsinthesurfaceoceanthatreducespHandresultsinocean acidification(OA)InshortOAmakesseawatercorrosivetocalciumcarbonatemineralswhichmanymarineorganismsrelyonforbodystructuresHigh0latitudeoceanshave naturallylowcarbonateconcentrationssoareconsideredtobemorevulnerabletotheimpactsofOAbecauseadditionalcarbonatelossrepresentsamuchgreaterproportionalchangetothesystemInanovelstudyMathisetalprovideariskassessmentofOAimpacts tocommercialandtraditionalfisheriesfocusedonshellfishsalmonandfinfishTheresultant indexsuggeststhatwhilethenorthernBeringSeaisatmediumriskfromOAimpactsto fisheriesPacificArcticwatersnorthoftheSewardPeninsulaarecurrentlyatlowriskduelargelytoalackofdependenceonthesefoodsources

3)Lower)Trophic)Level)Communities)signals)from)direct)and)indirect)sampling

ThepredominantconceptualmodelframinghowmarineecosystemsinthePacificArctic respondtoreducedseaiceisbasedonchangesanticipatedfromashiftinpelagic0benthic coupling(Fig4)

Figure)4))Generalized)conceptual)model)depicting)the)influence)of)sea)ice)on)pelagicVbenthic)coupling)on) Pacific)Arctic)continental)shelves)

24

OnthebroadshelvesthatcomprisemuchofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemnewprimaryproductionfromsea0icealgaeandphytoplanktonbloomsfallstotheseafloortosupportrich benthiccommunities(Grebmeier2012)Asseaicethinsandretreatsearlierintheseasonitisanticipatedthatearlierandlargerphytoplanktonbloomswillswitchfromabenthic0 dominatedtoapelagic0dominatedmarineecosystemThisshiftwillcascadethroughthesystemsupportingnovelcommunitiesofsecondaryandtertiaryconsumers(zooplanktonandforagefishes)anduppertrophiclevelmarinebirdsandmammalsIndeedGrebmeieret al(2006)suggestedthatthistypeofecosystemshiftisalreadyunderwayinthemarinecommunitiesofthenorthernBeringSeaThePacificArcticisoftendescribedasabenthic0 dominatedmarineecosystemonethatdoesnotsupportalargebiomassorspeciesdiversityoffishesAdescriptionofconditionsthathavefosteredexistingbenthichotspotsoffersa solidfoundationforassessingfuturechangeswhileanaccountingoftheexistingcommunitiesofmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsprovidesastartingpointuponwhichtobuildalong0termrecord)

31Benthichotspotsandmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitats

ArecordofextantconditionsiskeytointerpretingmarineecosystemresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingnowevidentinthePacificArcticSucharecordexistsforfourbenthic lsquohotspotrsquocommunitiesinthenorthernBeringandChukchiseas(Grebmeieretal2015a)but notformarinefishesLong0termsamplingofbenthicmacrofaunalcommunitiesindicatesthatthebenthichotspotshavemaintainedconsistentlyhighbiomassforuptofourdecadesdueto reoccurrenceofseasonallyreliablemoderate0to0highwatercolumnproductioncoupledwithexportofcarbonfromoverlyingwaterstotheseafloorUppertrophiclevelbenthivorestargetpreyaggregationsineachofthehotspotsOverallbottom0upforcingbyhydrography andfoodsupplytothebenthosinfluencespersistenceandcompositionofbenthicpreywhichinturninfluencestheuppertrophiclevelspeciescompositionandseasonaloccurrence Whenconsistentlysampledintandemthesebenthos0benthivoreconnectionscanfacilitate useofUTLspeciesassentinelsofshiftsinpreycompositionandabundance(Mooreetal2014)

Sincethe2000stherehavebeenahostofArcticmarinefishsurveysintheChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasprecipitatedbybothscientificinterestintheimpactsofclimatechangeandcommercialinterestinoilandgasdevelopment(Logerwelletal2015)Resultsfrom thesesurveysprovideanovelopportunitytocompareArcticfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsrangingfromlagoonsandbeachestobenthicandpelagiccontinental shelfwatersAsynthesisofdatafromthesesurveysrevealedmoresimilaritiesthandifferencesinhabitatusebetweenthetwoseasForexamplenearshorehabitatisusedbyallageclassesofforagefishesandisalsoanurseryareaforotherspeciesinboththeChukchiand westernBeaufortseasNotablysomecommercialspeciesmaybeexpandingtheirrangenorthtothesewatersincludingchinooksalmon(Oncorhynchustshawytscha)walleyepollock (Gaduschalcogrammus)andflatfishes(Pleuronectidae)Inadditionasynthesisofinformationonrelativeabundanceandageofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)andsaffroncod

25

(Eleginusgracilis)bothkeypreyspeciesinArcticfoodwebssupportedthedevelopmentoflifehistoryanddistributionmodelsthatwillinformfutureresearchontrophicdynamicsin thePacificArcticsector

32Inferencesofmarineecosystemshiftsfromsealsseabirdsandseaducks

Additionalinformationregardingtheimpactoflsquonewnormalrsquobiophysicalconditionsonlowertrophiclevelspeciescanbeinferredfromshiftsinthedietandbodyconditionofmarine mammalsandbirdsCrawfordetal(2015)comparedthedietandconditionofringedseals(Pusahispida)andbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)harvestedintheAlaskanBeringand Chukchiseasduringhistorical(197501984)andrecent(200302012)periodsTheyfoundthe proportionoffishinthedietofbothspeciesincreasedintherecentreduced0iceperiodcomparedtothehistoricalperiodInadditionringedsealsgrewfasterhadthickerblubber andmaturedtwoyearsearlierBeardedsealshadthickerblubberintherecentperiodbut didnotmanifesttheotherchangesreportedfortheringedsealsAlthoughanumberofthe comparisonswerenotstatisticallysignificanttakentogethertheseobservationssuggestgreaterfishavailabilityintheAlaskanBering0Chukchimarineecosystemsupportinggood bodyconditionintheseals

AsinthesealpaperDivokyetal(2015)parsedalong0termdatasetintorecent(200302012)andhistorical(197501984)periodstocompareoceanographicconditionsnestlingdietandfledgingsuccessatablackguillemot(Cepphusgryllemandtii)breedingcolonyinthewestern BeaufortSeaFrom15Julyto1Septemberseaiceretreatedanaverageof18kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof958kmfromthecolonyduringthehistoricalperiodwhileinthe recentperiodiceretreataveraged98kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof5069kmSeasurfacetemperaturenearthecolonyincreasedby29⁰CbetweenthetwoperiodsWhileArcticcodcomprisedover95ofthepreyprovidedtonestlingsinthehistoricalperiodthis proportiondecreasedtolt5ofthenestlingdietduringmostyearsintherecentperiodwhendemersalsculpin(Cottidae)comprisedthemajorityofthedietTheshiftawayfrom Arcticcodwasassociatedwithafive0foldincreaseintherateofnestlingstarvationand reductionsinnestlinggrowthandfledgingmassConverselyannualadultsurvivalduringthe nonbreedingseason(September0May)showednosignificantdifferencebetweenthetwo periodssuggestingnochangeintheavailabilityofArcticcodorinoverallpreyavailabilityto blackguillemotsintheirBeringSeawinteringarea

IncontrasttoarelianceonpelagicpreyLovvornetal(2015)investigatedpotentialclimate0 relatedlimitstobenthicfeedingbyseaducksalongtheirmigrationcorridorinthenortheasternChukchiSeaKingeiders(Somateriaspectabilis)primarilyeatclams(bivalves) duringmigrationandrecentsamplinghasshownthatdenseclamassemblagesoccuronlyinspecificlocationsalongthemigrationcorridorSeaicecanpreventeidersfromreachingtheseprimefeedingsiteswithsatellitedataforApril‒May(2001‒2013)showingthataccess canvaryfrom0‒100InawarmingandincreasinglyvariableclimateaccesstobenthicfeedingsitesmaybefurthererodedbytheeffectsofwindsonunconsolidatediceThese

26

resultsunderscoretheimportanceofmaintainingarangeofbenthicfeedingareasthroughoutthemigrationcorridortoensurepreyavailabilitytotheeiderseachyear)

4)Upper)Trophic)Level)Species)marine)birds)and)mammals)as)ecosystem)sentinels

Astoppredatorsmarinebirdsandmammalsmustadapttochangesintheirhabitatsresultingfromphysicalforcingandtherebycanserveassentinelstoecosystemshifts(Mooreetal2014MooreandGulland2014)ResponsesofUTLspeciestoalteredhabitatscanbe categorizedasextrinsicincludingshiftsinrangemigratorytiming(phenology)orregionsofhighabundance(hotspots)orintrinsicincludingchangesindietbodyconditionand chemicalcomposition(Fig5)

Figure)5)Marine)birds)and)mammals)are)upper)trophic)level)(UTL))species)that)reflect)ecosystem) alterations)by)changes)in)habitat)use)(extrinsic))and)body)condition)(intrinsic))revealing)fundamental) changes)in)marine)ecosystems)

Responsesareinter0relatedsuchthatashiftinrangephenologyoruseofhotspotswillbe reflectedinchangesindietbodyconditionandchemistryItisthisconnectionthatallowsus

27

todetectecosystemreorganizationbytrackingchangesintheecologyandphysiologyofUTL speciesAlthoughtherehavebeennocoordinatedlong0termstudiesofUTLspeciesinthe PacificArcticexaminingthisconnectionasynthesisofinformationfromvisualsurveyssatellitetaggingofindividualsandyear0roundacousticdetectionsprovidesanecological foundationthatcanprovideabaselinetoinformfutureinvestigations

41Seasonaloccurrencehotspothabitatsandacousticecology

Kuletzetal(2015)depictspatialpatternsofrelativeabundanceofseabirdsandmarinemammalsinsummerandfallderivedfromsixyearsofvisualsurveysintheeasternChukchi andwesternBeaufortseasUsingstatisticalspatialanalysistoolshotspotsforseabirdswalrusandgraywhaleswereidentifiedintheChukchiSeawhilehotspotsforbowheadwhalesandsealsweredescribednearBarrowCanyonandalongtheBeaufortSeashelfand slopeHotspotsforbelugasoccurredinboththeChukchiandBeaufortseasInsummerthreehotspotsweresharedbybothseabirdsandmarinemammalsintheChukchiSeawaters offshoreWainwrightsouthofHannaShoalandatthemouthofBarrowCanyonOnlytheBarrowCanyonhotspotwasoccupiedthroughthefallSharedhotspotswerecharacterized bystrongfrontscausedbyupwellingandcurrentswhichcanservetoaggregatepreyUsingadifferentapproachCittaetal(2015)providedetailedanalysisoftheseasonalmovementsandhabitatusebyasinglespeciesthroughoutoneyearLocationsfrom54bowheadwhales (Balaenamysticetus)obtainedbysatellitetelemetryfrom200602012wereusedtoidentifya totalofsixcore0useareasintheBeaufort(3)Chukchi(1)andnorthernBering(2)seas Takentogetherthetimingofuse(phenology)andphysicalcharacteristics(oceanographyseaiceandwinds)associatedwitheachareadescribeaseasonalcircuitbythewhalesthroughareasthoughttosupportelevatedpreydensities

Passiveacousticsamplinghasbecomeacommonyear0roundtooltodetectcallingmarine mammalsinarcticseas(Mooreetal2006Staffordetal2012)Since2007therehasbeenanespeciallystrongsamplingeffortassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationinthenortheast ChukchiandwesternBeaufortseas(egHannayetal2013 httpwwwafscnoaagovnmmlcetaceanchaozphp)Theserecorderdeployments augmentalong0standingacousticstudyinthecentralBeaufortSea(Blackwelletal2007)andmorerecentdeploymentsintheBeringStraitregion(KStaffordperscomm)HeretoforeresearchersconductedeachofthesestudiesindependentlyofoneanotherClark etal(2015)presentsanovelsynthesisofthecombinedoutputfromsixresearcheffortsusingfourtypesofrecordersandavarietyofsub0samplingandanalysisschemestodescribean lsquoacousticyearrsquointhelifeofthebowheadwhaleDetectionsofbowheadcallsfrom20sitesextendingover2300kmfromthenorthernBeringSeatothesoutheastBeaufortSeawere combinedovera140monthperiod(200902010)todescribewhaleoccurrenceacrosstheir rangeThespatialandtemporalvariabilityinsoundlevelswithinthefrequencybandofbowheadwhaleswasalsoquantifiedThelowestunderwatersoundlevelsoccurredfromlate NovemberuntilMayintheChukchiSeaDuringwinter200902010singingbowheadwhaleselevatedbroadbandsoundlevelsforroughly38daysinthenorthernBeringSeafollowedby

28

asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

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ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

31

Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

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(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Moore

TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

Mathis

UsinganEnvironmentalIntelligenceFrameworktoEvaluatetheImpactsof

OceanAcidificationintheArctic

ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

26(Jan(2017(

Moore

The

Arc

tic M

arin

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ns in

the

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

24(Jan(2017(

VanPelt

Synt

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s of A

rctic

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

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22(Apr(2017(

Moore

The

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hesi

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 5: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

List)of)Figures)

Figure1Mapofstudyareashowingprincipalcurrents(redlines)andmeansea0icemaximum (spring)andminimum(fall)extent(MooreandStabeno2015)7

Figure2CoverofthefirstSOARspecialissueProgressinOceanographyVol13616

Figure3HighlightsofrecentbiophysicalchangesinthePacificArcticmarineecosystem21

Figure4Generalizedconceptualmodeldepictingtheinfluenceofseaiceonpelagic0benthiccoupling onPacificArcticcontinentalshelves24

Figure5Marinebirdsandmammalsareuppertrophiclevel(UTL)speciesthatreflectecosystem alterationsbychangesinhabitatuse(extrinsic)andbodycondition(intrinsic)revealing fundamentalchangesinmarineecosystems27

Figure6ComponentsoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelndashlinkingpelagic0benthic couplingandadvectivemodelstoderiveaseasonalmodelforthePacificArcticframedby contiguousdomains32

Figure7TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodeldepictingseasonalbiophysicalpulsesin threeecologicaldomainsacrossalatitudinalgradientoverthecourseofanannualcycleinthe PacificArcticregion(MooreandStabeno2015)33

Figure8Paperscomprisingtheforthcoming20182ndSOARspecialissue(tobepublishedinDeep0 SeaResearchPartII)identifiedbyleadauthorandorganizedbyecologicaldomainsthatframe theArcticMarinePulsesmodel(Mooreetalinpress)35

List)of)Tables)

Table1ListofScienceSteeringCommitteemembersandinstitutions13

Table2ListofSOARSSCTeleconferencesandin0personmeetings14

Table3Papersincludedinthe2015SOARspecialissueofProgressinOceanography17

Table4PaperstoappearintheSOAR2ndPhasespecialissueinDeepSeaResearchPartII18

5

INTRODUCTION)

ChangestothephysicalenvironmentoftheUSArcticOuterContinentalShelf(OCS)aredrivingshiftsinthedistributionandbehaviorofanumberofprotectedmarinemammalspeciesthatinhabitthosewatersThesamespeciesmaybeaffectedbyoilandgasactivities withinOCSPlanningAreaswithstrongpotentialfordeleteriousinteractionsbetweennaturalandhumaninducedphenomenaEnvironmentalregulations(egNEPAtheESAandthe MMPA)requiretheBureauofOceanEnergyManagement(BOEM)toevaluatewhetherand howfederalactionsassociatedwithoilandgasdevelopmentmayaffecttheseprotectedspeciesandthemarineenvironmentonwhichtheydependInformationonoceancirculation andhydrographyisusefulfortheseevaluationsaswellasforinputintomodelsusedtopredicttheoutcomeofoilspillsHoweverphysicsalonecannotpredicthowprotected speciesandthemarineecosystemsuponwhichtheydependwillrespondtonaturalandanthropogenicforcingGivenrecentinvestmentsbyBOEMotherfederalagencies(egNOAA USGSNSF)andtheoilandgasindustryininterdisciplinarybiologicalandoceanographicresearchinthePacificArcticregion(PAR)asynthesisofresultsofcompletedandongoingstudieswillhelptoinformmanagementdecision0makersandtoguidefutureresearch activities

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)PhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArcticprojectprovidesaframeworkforasynthesisofscientificinformationdrawnfromcompleted andongoingmarineresearchinthePacificArcticregionTheSOARprojectaimstoincreasescientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsbenthicorganismslowertrophicpreyspecies(foragefishandzooplankton)andmarinemammal distributionandbehaviorinthePARwithparticularemphasisonthenortheasternChukchiSeaSOARfurtheraimstoenhanceourcapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographic featuressuchascurrentsupwellingandiceleadsandassociatedchangesinthebehaviorof marinemammalsandtheirpreyintheregionandtoeffectivelytransmitfindingsofsynthesis activitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArcticresidentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

InthisreportweprovidedetailonthebackgroundmethodsandresultsoftheSOARprojectandsummarizethescientificoutcomesacrossthefirstandsecondphasesofSOAR

6

BACKGROUND

ThePacificArcticregioncompriseswatersnorthofStMatthewIsland(60degNlatitude)inthenorthernBeringChukchiBeaufortandEastSiberianseas(Grebmeieretal2010)Theregionisanin0flowsystemtotheArctic(Carmacketal2006)withthreedistinctwater massesflowingnorththroughBeringStraitthenbathymetricallychanneledacrosstheChukchiSeashelfandintotheBeaufortSeabasin(Fig1)Theannualadvanceandretreatof seaiceisthekeyphysicaldriverofprimaryproductiontrophicinteractionsandhumanaccessandactivitiesovertheentirePARThephysicalclimateofthePARischangingrapidlydrivingchangeacrosstheregionalmarineecosystems(GrebmeierandMaslowski2014)

Figure)1))Map)of)study)area)showing)principal)currents)(red)lines))and)mean)seaVice)maximum)(spring)) and)minimum)(fall))extent)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

Thesummerminimumsea0iceextentin2007and2008coveredanareathatwas37less thanthearealcoverageoftwodecadespriorand20lessthanthepreviousminimumcoveragein2005(Stroeveetal2008)Thepaceofthesechangeswasunexpectedasthe consensusoftheclimateresearchcommunitywasthatsuchchangeswouldnotbeseenfor

7

another30years(WangandOverland2009)Thereductioninsea0iceareaopensupvastnew regionsoftheArcticOceantoincreasedabsorptionofsunlightandstorageofheatThisheat isreturnedtotheatmosphereinthefollowingautumnresultinginincreasedArctic temperaturesofmorethan5degCextendingthesea0icefreeseasonthroughNovemberandcausingchangesinwindpatternsThesephysicalchangestotheArcticsystemappeartobe irreversible

Marinemammalsrespondtochangesinseaiceaccordingtotheirdependencyonitforvitallifefunctions(MooreandHuntington2008Kovacsetal2010)InthePARthedramaticchangesinseasonalsea0iceextentandtypeappeartohaveprecipitatedchangesinmarine mammalmigrationandfeedingpatternsForexamplelargeaggregationsofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)feedroutinelynearBarrowfromlatesummerthroughautumna phenomenonpreviouslyconsideredlsquosporadicrsquo(Mooreetal2010)Graywhales(Eschrichtius robustus)consideredatemperatespeciescommonlyfeednearthebowheadwhaleswhereas thetwospeciesappearedtobespatiallyandtemporallysegregatedintheearly1980s(Mooreetal1986)

Inadditiontothechangesinmarinemammalecologyanorthwardshiftofsomefishspecies(egSpencer2008MueterandLitzow2008RandandLogerwell2010)andtheprevalenceof euphausiids(Thysanoessaspp)indicatedthatthetrophicstructureofthePARischangingEuphausiidsareimportantpreyforbowheadandgraywhales(Ashjianetal2010Bluhmet al2007)andpossiblyalsoforicesealsEuphausiidsarethoughttobetransportedintothe PARfromthenorthernBeringSeaasreproductionhasneverbeenobservedinwatersnorthofBeringStrait(Berlineetal2008)Coupledtothisisthegeneraldearthofinformationon distributionandabundanceofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)inthePARaspeciesconsideredessentialintheshorttrophicfoodwebscommontopolarmarineecosystems(Ainleyand DeMaster1990)Examinationandsynthesisofhownaturalandhuman0associated environmentalvariabilityimpactsmarinemammalsrequiresinvestigationofthebiophysical changestotrophicstructureanddynamicsoftheirfishandinvertebrateprey

During200502015BOEMmadeextensiveinvestmentsinmarinemammalandrelated oceanographicstudiesintheeasternhalfofthePAR(ietheInternationalDateLineeastto theCanadianBeaufort)Datafromthosestudieswillconsiderablyaugmentthebodyof knowledgefortheregionbutinterpretationwouldbeconstrainedifresultsarenot integratedwithotherresearcheffortsAddressingthisintegrationwasthegenesisofthe SOARprojecttoundertakesynthesisofresearchfromongoingBOEMstudiesinthePARwhichincludebutarenotlimitedtothefollowing

bull BowheadWhaleFeedingVariabilityintheWesternAlaskanBeaufortSeaSatelliteTrackingofBowheadWhaleMovementsFeedingampOceanography

bull PassiveAcousticDetectionandMonitoringofEndangeredWhalesintheArctic

8

bull EcosystemObservationsintheChukchiSeaBiophysicalMooringandClimateModeling

bull ChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea(COMIDA)ChemistryandBenthos

bull DistributionandRelativeAbundanceofMarineMammalsCOMIDAAerialSurveys

bull HannaShoalEcosystemStudy

bull MonitoringtheDistributionofArcticWhales(alsoknownasBWASP)

bull WalrusHabitatUseinthePotentialDrillingArea

bull PinnipedMovementsandForagingBeardedSeals

bull AssessingReproductionandBodyConditionoftheRingedSealnearSachsHarbourNorthwestTerritoryCanadathroughaHarvest0basedSamplingProgram

bull ArcticmarineresearchstudiessupportedthroughNationalOceanPartnership Program(NOPP)towhichBOEMcontributes

bull StudiesconductedbytheAlaskaDepartmentofFishandGame(ADFampG)andtheNorthSlopeBorough(NSB)underBOEMrsquosCoastalImpactAssistanceProgram(CIAP)

Dataandresultsfromrelated(butnotBOEM0funded)studiesthatalsocontributetotheSOAR includebutarenotlimitedtothefollowing

bull NOAArsquosRUSALCAprogram(USA0RussiabilateralstudyoftheChukchiSea)

bull StudiessupportedbyNSFOfficeofPolarPrograms

bull StudiessupportedbytheLandscapeConservationCooperativeNetwork

bull StudiessupportedbytheAlaskaDepartmentofFishampGametheUSGeologicalSurveyandbytheUSFishampWildlifeService

bull Studiessupportedbyoilandgasindustry(egShellConocoPhillipsStatOilBritishPetroleum)relatedtomitigationandmonitoringofeffectsofoffshoreexplorationanddevelopmentonmarinemammalsandtheirenvironmentegtheChukchiSea EnvironmentalStudiesProgram(CSESP)

)

)

)

9

OBJECTIVES)AND)METHODS)

)

OBJECTIVES

)

TheSOARprojectfocusedonthreeobjectives

1 Increasescientificunderstandingoftheinter0andintra0relationshipsofoceanographicconditionsbenthicorganismslowertrophicpreyspecies(foragefishand zooplankton)andmarinemammaldistributionandbehaviorinthePARwithparticularemphasisontheChukchiSealeaseareas

2 Enhancecapabilitytopredictchangesinoceanographicfeaturessuchascurrents upwellingandiceleadsandassociatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARwithparticularemphasisonthenortheasternChukchiSea

3 EffectivelytransmitfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

)

METHODS

TASKFRAMEWORK

TheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojectwastouseavailableanalyticalandmodelingapproachestoidentifyandtesthypothesesthatcrossscientificdisciplinesSOARprovidesa frameworktosupportasynthesisofscientificinformationdrawnfromcompletedandongoingmarineresearchinthePacificArcticregionTheframeworkconsistsofsixtasks

1 establishaScienceSteeringCommitteetoprovideleadershipandoversightforthe synthesisproject

2 conductaSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)WorkshopinvolvingPIsfromall relevantresearchprogramsto

i identifyanddevelopsciencesynthesisthemesii detailrequireddataandanalysesforeachtheme iii formAnalyticalTeamstosupporttheworkofeachsynthesisthemeiv listanticipatedworkproducts(iepeer0reviewedpapersandpresentations)

and

10

v deriveameanstoarchivedataandmeta0datausedinsupportofthesynthesis 3 supportAnalyticalTeamdataintegrationandanalysisincludingtheme0based

meetingsasneeded 4 trackprogressofanalyticalworkviabi0monthlyteleconferencesandannualSCCAT0

updateworkshops 5 producescienceproductsincludingpresentationsatprofessionalmeetingsand

publicationofpeer0reviewedpapersasaSpecialIssueamporThemeSectionsinanappropriatescientificjournaland

6 communicatesynthesisapproachandfindingstolocalArcticresidentsresourcemanagersnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

TASKDETAIL

TASK)1)))ESTABLISH)AND)CONVENE)SCIENTIFIC)STEERING)COMMITTEE)

LeadershipandguidanceofthesynthesisprojectwasprovidedbyaScienceSteeringCommittee(SSC)formedofseniorscientistswithdecades0longexperienceinthePacific ArcticAttheinitialSSCmeetingthegroupidentifiedrelevantprojectsdeveloped provisionalsciencethemesandidentifiedpotentialparticipantsandleadersfor interdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeamsformedatthesubsequentSOARWorkshop

TASK)2)))PLAN)AND)CONDUCT)SOAR)WORKSHOP)

Amulti0disciplinarySOARWorkshopwasthekeystoneinitialproductofSOARWorkshop participantsinventoriedavailabledataandevaluateditssufficiencytoaddressspecificcross0 disciplinaryhypothesesandquestionsprovisionallyidentifiedassciencethemesbytheSSCTheprovisionallistofthemeswasmodifiedandnewthemesemergedattheworkshopOnce sciencethemeswereagreeduponinterdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeams(AT)wereformedto conductthecoreworkoftheSOARprojectInterdisciplinaryATstheninitiatedthe developmentofshortproposalstosupporttheworkrequiredfordataintegrationanalyses andormodeling

TASK)3))SUPPORT)DATA)INTEGRATION)ANALYSIS)AND)MODELING

Inresponsetoproposalsdetailingtheworktobeperformedtimelineandproducts anticipatedmdashandincoordinationwithSSCreviewmdashfundingwasprovidedviacontractfor selectedATstointegratedataconductanalysesrunmodelsandordeveloppublicationsInsomecasesdirectfundingwasnotneededandin0kindsupportwasprovidedintheformofreviewcoordinationandpublicationfacilitationAsubsetofATsintegratedtheirworkwith

11

on0goingoceanographicprograms(egRUSALCAandtheDistributedBiologicalObservatory[DBO])andinsomecasestheATsconductedfollow0ontheme0basedmeetingsorintegrativeworkshopsasthebestmeanstoaccomplishdataintegrationandsynthesisontheirtopic OtherATschosetointegratetheirworkviavideoorteleconferenceswiththebulkofcontract fundinggoingtowardssupportforagraduatestudentpost0docorotherresearcherto accomplishthesynthesistasksidentified)

TASK)4))TRACK)PROGRESS)OF)ANALYTICAL)WORK)

ATleadshadprimaryresponsibilityfortrackingtheprogressofworkontheirsciencethemeandmembersoftheSSCwerealsoaskedtofollowtheprogressoftheworktowardsuseful productsTrackingtooktheformofcontactatregularintervals(egbimonthly)viae0mailorphonesolicitingspecificinformationonproblemsencounteredandadherencetotimelineforproductcompletionSummariesofprogressoneachthemeappearedinQuarterlyReportsto theBOEM

TASK)5))SCIENCE)PRODUCTS))

ThecoreproductoftheSOARprojectwasaseriesofsciencepresentationsandpeer0reviewedpapersdescribingcurrentandprojectedstatusofthePARmarineecosystemAnnual presentationsontheapproachandprogressoftheSOARwereprovidedatplenarysessionsof theAlaskaMarineScienceSymposiumandadditionalpresentationsweremadeatother sciencevenuessuchastheAGUOceanSciencesmeetingSciencepaperswerethenpublishedinspecialissuesofpeer0reviewedjournalswiththeprojectPIsandcoordinatorservingas GuestEditors

TASK)6))COMMUNICATION)OF)SYNTHESIS)APPROACH)amp)PRODUCTS)

Inadditiontosciencepapersandpresentationsresultsofthesyntheseswereprovidedto communitiesinelectronicandhardcopyformatandopportunitiestospeakwithArcticresidentsweresoughtatco0managementmeetingsandotherforaAwebsitewasdeveloped providinggraphicsandbriefsummariesforgeneraluseandlinkingtootherrelevantsitesResultsofthesynthesiswerecommunicatedtovariousnationalandinternationalArctic Programs(egNOAAArcticReportCardSEARCHISACPAGIASCandArcticCouncilWorkingGroups)

12

SOARPHASE1ANDSOARPHASE2

Task5(ScienceProducts)wasoriginallyenvisagedtoresultinaspecialvolumeofpeer0reviewedpaperspossiblysupplementedbyanadditionalsmallersetofpapersinatheme sectionorothersimilaroutletHoweverfollowingcompletionofthefirstphaseofSOARculminatinginthe2015specialissueofProgressinOceanography(MooreandStabeno2015 seeResultssectionbelowformoreinformation)therewasahighlevelofinterestinextendingSOARtoincludeadditionalsynthesisThereforethesecondphaseofSOARwas developedbuildingfromaninformalmid0projectworkshopandresultinginasecondfullspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchIIFurtherdetailisprovidedinthefollowingsections

RESULTS)

FOUNDATIONALTASKSSCIENCESTEERINGCOMMITTEEANDWORKSHOP

THESOARSCIENCESTEERINGCOMMITTEE

AScienceSteeringCommittee(SCC)comprisedofscientistsandAlaskancoastalcommunityrepresentativeswasestablished(Table1)ThefirstoffiveannualSSCmeetingswasheldfrom103November2011attheWatertownHotelinSeattleWATheSSCidentifiedrelevantprojects anddatasourcesdevelopedthreedraftsciencethemesandrelatedquestionsandidentified potentialparticipantsandleadersforassociatedinterdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeamsthatwould beformedatSOARScienceWorkshopMultiplesubsequentmeetingsfurtherdevelopedthe sciencethemesandprovidedguidanceforSOARtasks(Table2)

)

Table)1))List)of)Science)Steering)Committee)members)and)institutions)

ScienceSteeringCommitteeMember

Affiliation Location

RobynAngliss NOAANationalMarineMammalLaboratory

SeattleWA

CarinAshjian WoodsHoleOceanographic Institution

WoodsHoleMA

ChristopherClark CornellUniversity IthacaNY

13

JacquelineGrebmeier UniversityofMarylandCenterforEnvironmental Studies

SolomonsMD

CraigGeorge NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EskimoWhaling

ComissionKawerak NomeAK

SueMoore NOAANMFS SeattleWA ChadJay USGeologicalSurvey AnchorageAK TimRagan MarineMammalCommission WashingtonDC PhyllisStabeno NOAAPMEL SeattleWA RobertSuydam NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK TomWeingartner UniversityofAlaska0

Fairbanks FairbanksAK

)

Table)2)List)of)SOAR)SSC)Teleconferences)and)inVperson)meetings)

SOAR)SSC)Meeting) SSCTeleconference1

Date) 21September2011

SSCTeleconference2 18October2011 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingSeattleWA 11November2011 SSCTeleconference3 16February2012 SSCTeleconference4 6April2012 SOARMarchWorkshop 14016March2012 SSCTeleconference5 6July2012 SSCTeleconference6 6October2012 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 21January2013 SSCTeleconference7) 9April2013 SSCTeleconference8) 14November2013 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 20January2014 SSCTeleconference9) 12January2015 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 23January2015 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK(informal)) 26January2016

SOARWORKSHOPndashMARCH2012

TheSOARScienceWorkshopwasheldfrom14016March2012attheEganCenterinAnchorageAlaskaTheSOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandProjectCoordinatorallmembersoftheScienceSteeringCommitteeand42ofthe43invitedSOARContributorsattendedthe

14

workshopDraftScienceThemesandQuestionsdevelopedbytheSOARScienceSteeringCommitteewereprovidedtoparticipantsinadvanceoftheworkshopsummarizedas(i)EcosystemResponsetoBottom0upandorTop0downForcing(ii)MarineBirdsMammalsandFishasEcosystemSentinelsand(iii)AcousticEcology

TheprimarygoalsoftheScienceWorkshopwereto(1)refinetheDraftScienceThemesandQuestions(2)formresearchteamstoundertakeanalysisinsupportofdevelopmentofpeer0reviewedpapersand(3)developshortproposalstoidentifyprojectmilestonesandfinancialsupportrequiredtocompletesyntheticprojects

DayoneoftheworkshopconsistedofdisciplinarytalksinplenarysessiontoprovideallparticipantswiththecurrentstateofknowledgeineachareaofstudyDuringdaytwooftheworkshopsciencethemeswererevisedtoreflectgroupinputParticipantsdividedintothree theme0basedbreakoutgroupsandbegandevelopingsciencequestionstoproposeforSOARDaythreeoftheworkshopbeganwithaplenarysummaryofthepreviousdayrsquosprogress followedbybreakoutgroupstowriteandsubmitone0pageproposalsfortheprojects requestingfundingOntheafternoonofthethirddayanopen0sessionwasheldto communicateworkshopprogresstoBOEMscientistsandmanagerscolleaguesfromtheNorthPacificResearchBoardandAlaskaOceanObservingSystemindustryrepresentativesand otherinterestedpartiesFurtherdetailsoftheSOARWorkshopcanbefoundintheSOAR WorkshopReport(SheffieldGuyetal2012a)andseealsoSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)

15

SCIENCEPRODUCTANDCOMMUNICATIONTASKS

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE1 FollowingtheinitialSOARthemeselectionsandteamdevelopmentandincorporatinganextensivepeer0reviewphaseledbytheprojectPIsandcoordinatorthefirstphaseofthe SOARprojectculminatedinaspecialvolumeofProgressinOceanographypublishedinAugust 2015(Fig2Table3)Thisspecialissueincluded16fullpapersplusanintroductionpaper authoredbythetwoprojectPIs

Figure)2)Cover)of)the)first)SOAR)special) volume)published)in)Progress)in)

Oceanography)in)2015)

16

Table)3))Papers)included)in)the)2015)SOAR)special)issue)of)Progress)in)Oceanography)

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsofthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011 WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressinOceanography13612031 FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015Divergentpatternsofrecent seaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049 WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059 ArrigoKRvanDijkenGL2015ContinuedincreasesinArcticOceanprimaryproductionProgressinOceanography13660070 MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJNFeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091 GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarkeJTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSHLovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015EcosystemcharacteristicsandprocessesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114 LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132 CrawfordJAQuakenbushLTCittaJJ2015Acomparisonofringedandbeardedsealdietconditionandproductivitybetweenhistorical(1975ndash1984)andrecent(2003ndash2012)periodsintheAlaskanBeringandChukchiseasProgressinOceanography1361330150 DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarctic seaiceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161 LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015LimitstobenthicfeedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchangingseaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174 KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015SeasonalspatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareas ProgressinOceanography1361750200 CittaJJQuakenbushLTOkkonenSRDruckenmillerMLMaslowskiWClement0KinneyJGeorgeJCBrowerHSmallRJAshjianCJHarwoodLAHeide0Joslashrgensen MP2015Ecologicalcharacteristicsofcore0useareasusedbyBeringndashChukchindashBeaufort(BCB)bowheadwhales2006ndash2012ProgressinOceanography1362010222

17

ClarkCWBerchokCLBlackwellSBHannayDEJonesJPonirakisDStafford KM2015AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasProgressinOceanography1362230240 MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationshipbetweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249 GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgressinOceanography1362500262 HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015ChangeintheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE2

Followingthe2015publicationofthefirstSOARspecialissueinProgressinOceanography theSOARprojectSSCandparticipantsdecidedtopursuecoordinatethepublicationofasetofpapersinfullsecondspecialissueThosePhase2topicsandpaperleadswerediscussedat theannualSOARSSCmeetinginJanuary2015Baseduponsuggestionsatthismeeting102pageproposalswererequestedfromsuggestedpaperleadsandproposalswerethen subsequentlydevelopedintopublishedpapersThemajorityofpapersforthesecondspecial issuewerecompletedandinpressbytheendof2017(Table4)withfinalpublicationofthe completespecialissueinDeepSeaResearchIIndashTopicalStudiesinOceanographyexpectedby latesummer2018

Table)4))Papers)to)appear)in)the)SOAR)2nd)Phase)special)issue)published)in)Deep)Sea)Research)Part)II)

Corresponding) Author Manuscript)Title

SueMoore IntroductionTheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)Project

MuyinWang SeaiceandoceancharacteristicsintheChukchiSeabyselectedCMIP5modelsthepresentandthefuture

NicholasBond DiagnosisofphysicaloceanographiceventsintheChukchiSea usinganoceanreanalysis

VictoriaHill DecadaltrendsinphytoplanktonproductioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

18

JessicaCross FormationandtransportofcorrosivewaterinthePacificArcticRegion

LeeCooper DepositionpatternsontheChukchiShelfusingradionuclide inventoriesinrelationtosurfacesedimentcharacteristics

Matthew Druckenmiller

Trendsinsea0icecoverandupwellingpotentialwithinBowheadwhaleuseareasintheWesternArctic

KateStafford AcousticecologyofbowheadandbelugawhalesincoreuseareasintheBeaufortandChukchiSeas

JohnCitta Oceanographiccharacteristicsassociatedwithbowheadwhale movementsintheChukchiSea

JohnCitta SeasonaldistributionandoverlapofmarinemammalsintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseas

KimberlyRand UsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

ElizabethLogerwell Environmentaldriversofbenthicfishdistributioninandaround BarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwesternBeaufortSea

KathleenStafford BelugawhalesintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaasynthesisofavailableinformationontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StephenOkkonen Relationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskanBeaufortSea

MartinRobards UnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesintheAlaskanArcticPlace0basedcollaborationswithAlaskaNative communities

SueMoore TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)ModellinkingtemporalprocessestocontiguousdomainsinthePacificArctic

19

PRESENTATIONSANDPOSTERSATSCIENTIFICMEETINGS

SOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandcontributorsmademorethan50presentationsincludinginformationaboutthissynthesiseffortatavarietyofscientificmeetingsworkshopsandwebinarsAfulllistofthesepresentationsisprovidedinAppendixC

OTHERCOMMUNICATIONOFSYNTHESISAPPROACHANDPRODUCTS

TheSynthesisofArcticResearchwebsitelocatedathttpswwwpmelnoaagovsoar providesbackgroundinformationandup0to0datescienceproductinformationtostakeholders andthegeneralpublicThewebsitewillcontinuetobeliveandhostedbyNOAA

Severalpeer0reviewedpaperswerepublishedthatalsoappealtoamoregeneralortrans0 disciplineaudienceincludingSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)andSheffieldGuyetal(2016)SOARsynthesisresultswerefeaturedinnumerousnewspapersonlinefeaturesmagazines andmore

SYNTHESIS)SUMMARY)AND)DISCUSSION)

SOARPHASEI

ThefirstphaseofSOARresultedinfifteenpaperspublishedinaspecialissueofProgressin Oceanographyin2015(Table3)HereweprovideabroadoverviewanddiscussionofthepapersinthatspecialissuedrawnfromtheIntroductiontothatissue(MooreandStabeno 2015)

1 Introduction)

TheinitiationoftheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)projectcoincidedwiththerecognitionthatbiophysicalchangesinthePacificArcticregionweresoextremecomparedtotherecentpastthattheyacquiredthemonikerlsquonewnormalrsquo(Jeffriesetal2013) ConsequentlydescribingthebiophysicalpropertiesofthelsquonewlsquoPacificArcticmarineecosystemwasfoundationaltotheSOAReffortandthefocusoffivepapersinthefirstspecial issueExaminingbiologicalresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingthenbecamethetaskofresearchersfocusedonthestudyoflowertrophiclevel(LTL)communitiesanduppertrophiclevel(UTL)speciesTwopapersprovideintegratedresultsfromdirectsamplingofbenthic andfishcommunitieswhilethreepapersreportonchangesinLTLspeciesoccurrenceinferredbyshiftsinthedietsofsealsandmarinebirdsSixpapersfocusonUTLspecieswith fourpresentinginformationonseasonaloccurrenceinhotspotorcore0usehabitatsandtwo describingvariabilityinmarinemammalbodyconditioninthecontextofdecadal0scale

20

environmentalvariabilityTogetherthesepapersprovideasyntheticcontexttofocushypothesesunderpinningthenextdecadeofresearchinthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

2)Biophysics)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

ThePacificArcticmarineecosystemiscomprisedofinflowshelves(northernBeringandChukchiseas)coupledtointeriorshelves(EastSiberianandBeaufortseas)withthe contrastingbiophysicsofthesedomainssummarizedinCarmacketal(2006)Circulationon bothinflowandinteriorshelvesislinkedtopan0arcticteleconnectionmechanisms(egArcticOscillation)withinteriorshelvesalsostronglyinfluencedbytheseasonaloutflowof relativelywarmfreshwaterfromarcticriversEvaluatingecosystemstatusandtrendsinthePacificArcticwasthefocusofarecentbookwith10(of12)chaptersdevotedtoobservationsandmodelingoftheatmosphereoceanphysicsandchemistry(GrebmeierandMaslowski 2014)Thepapersinthefirstspecialissueaddtothatbodyofknowledgeespeciallywithregardtobiologicalresponsestobiophysicaldriversandinthiswaycontributetoamore holisticunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

21)PhysicalobservationsandopenwaterprojectionsinthelsquonewnormalrsquoPacificArctic

Recentobservations(200302013)ofenvironmentalchangesinthePacificArcticsupportthecontentionthatanewnormalclimateisemerging(Fig3Jeffriesetal2013Woodetal 2015)

Figure)3))Highlights)of)recent)biophysical)changes)in)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

21

Theiconicindicatorofthischangeisthedramaticsummertimelossofseaice(50byarea75byvolume)whichinsomeyears(eg2012)hasresultedinnearlyice0freeconditionsin theregionSpecificallysatellitedatafrom197902012reveallocalizedchangesinsea0ice occurrenceofupto0164daysyearintheCanadaBasinand0124daysyearintheBeaufort Seawhichacceleratedto0657daysyear(CanadaBasin)and01284daysyear(Beaufort Sea)duringthe200002012period(Freyetal2015)Multiyearseaicehasalmostentirelydisappearedwithinter0annualvariabilityiniceconcentrationlargelydrivenbywindforcing intheBeaufortSeaIntheCanadaBasindifferencesinannualseaiceareprimarilythermallydrivenwhilesea0iceextentisinfluencedbybothwindsandheatontheBeringSeashelf

Thesummeratmosphericpatternsinfluenceoceancirculationfreshwaterpathwaysand movementandmeltingofseaiceDuringthelastdecadetheintensificationoftheBeaufortHigh(OgiandWallace2012)resultedinanomaloussummerwindsTheseanomalouswinds togetherwiththelossofmulti0yeariceweretheprimaryfactorsthattransformedtheChukchiandnorthernBeaufortseasintoanopenwaterenvironment(Woodetal2015)InparticulartheeasternBeaufortSeaappearstobeparticularlysusceptibletoanomalouswindsthrough theireffectontheadvectionofwarmfreshwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumeInadditiontransportanomaliesintheBeringStraitaredeterminedbycompetinglarge0scale atmosphericpatternstheBeaufortHighandAleutianLow(Danielsonetal2014)NotablychangesinBeringStraitflowthroughcanimpacttheworldclimatefarbeyondtheBeringStraitandArcticregion(egHuetal2015)

Freyetal(2015)investigatetheinfluenceofthePacificDecadalOscillation(PDO)andtheArcticOscillation(AO)onthepersistenceofseaiceinsummerandwinterTheyfoundsignificantnegativecorrelationsbetweenseaiceonthesoutheasternBeringSeashelfandthe PDOinwinteraswellassignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweentheAOandsea0icecoverjustsouthofStLawrenceIslandSignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweenthePDOandsea iceintheCanadaBasin0CanadianArchipelagowerefoundinsummeraswellasbetweentheAOandseaiceintheChukchi0BeaufortseasThisnovelinvestigationofteleconnections betweenthePDOtheAOandsea0icecoverprovidesacriticalstepinunderstandinghow globalandregionalclimatepatternsinfluencethephysicsofthePacificArcticregion

Theunprecedentedlossofseaicehasresultedinatremendousincreaseinopen0water susceptibletorapidsolarheatingwithadditionalheatandfreshwaterprovidedbya50 increaseinPacificWaterinflowatBeringStraitfrom200102011(Woodgateetal2012 Woodetal2015)TheinfluenceofincreasedheatstoredintheChukchiandBeaufortseasis notwellunderstoodSuggestionsthatheatreleasedtotheatmosphereinlateautumnandwinterdrivesaspectsofmid0latitudeweatherremainspeculativelargelyduetotheshort timerecordavailable(Woodetal2015)FresheningoftheArcticOceanhasbeenoccurring atleastsincethe1990s(egGilesetal2012)Severalexplanationshavebeenproposed includingincreasedsea0icemeltfresherPacificWaterflowingthroughBeringStraitchanges inthemagnitudeofriverdischargeandthemeanstrengtheningoftheBeaufortHighInrecentyearsrelativelystrongeasterlywindshavebeencommonduetotheArctic0wide

22

patternofcirculationaroundanintensifiedBeaufortHighUndertheseconditionsfreshand warmwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumecanbelaterallytransportedfaroutintothe BeaufortSea(Woodetal2015)

WangandOverland(2015)comparedresultsfromtwelvecoupledclimatemodelstoproducecompositeprojectionsofthedurationofopenwaterintheChukchiandBeaufortseasat decadalintervalsfrom201002050andin2090Forwatersnorthofthe70degNopen0water durationshiftsfrom304monthsin2010toaprojected~5monthsby2040Projectedopen0 waterdurationisaboutonemonthlongeralongthesamelatitudesintheChukchiSeacomparedwiththeBeaufortSeawithuncertaintyofaboutplusmn1monthestimatedfromtherangeofmodelresultsAllmodelsprojectedopen0waterdurationtoexpandquicklyoverthe nextthreedecadeswhichwillimpactregionaleconomicaccessandpotentiallyalterecosystemsYetthePacificArcticregionwillremaincoveredwiththinfirst0yearicefrom JanuarythroughMayintothesecondhalfofthecenturyduetoseasonallackofsunlight

22Changesinprimaryproductionandoceanacidification

Thedramaticlossofsea0iceextentandvolumehasresultedinaconcomitantincreaseinlightpenetrationintheupperoceanacrosstheArcticGiventhethinningandarealreductionof seaiceafundamentalquestionariseshavethesechangesfosteredanincreaseinmarineprimaryproductionSpecificallyisthePacificArcticregionmoreproductivethanitwasthreedecadesagoIntheAtlanticArcticLeuetal(2011)measuredprimaryproductionby bothicealgaeandphytoplanktonincontrastingyears(2007008)ofsea0icecoverinaSvalbardfjordandconcludedthatearliericebreakupcorrespondedwithearlieronsetofa phytoplanktonbloomSimilarlyTremblayetal(2012)reportincreasedprimaryproductionfor2007008associatedwithextremesea0iceretreatsandincreasedupwellingatstations locatedsouthandeastofBanksIslandinthesoutheasternBeaufortSeaButcanconclusions drawnfrommeasurementssorestrictedinspaceandtimebeextrapolatedtolargerarcticregionsUsingsatelliteimageryArrigoandvanDijken(2015)investigatedchangesinseaice atbothregionalandbasinscalesfrom199802012andestimatedhowthesechangeshaveimpactedratesofnetprimaryproduction(NPP)byphytoplanktonTheyreportthatannual NPPincreased30duringthisperiodwiththelargestincreasesontheinteriorshelves (includingtheEastSiberianandBeaufort)andsmallerincreasesoninflowshelves(includingtheChukchi)OutflowshelveseitherexhibitednochangeinannualNPPoradeclineperhaps indicatingthatnutrientshadbeenconsumedfurtherupstreamIncreasedannualNPPwasoftenbutnotalwaysassociatedwithreducedsea0iceextentandresultantlonger phytoplanktongrowingseason

HumanactivitieshaveincreasedtheatmosphericCO2concentrationbyabout40sincethebeginningoftheindustrialageanditisestimatedthattheoceanhasabsorbedmorethan25

23

ofthetotalanthropogenicemissions(Mathisetal2015)TheoceanicuptakeofCO2triggersaseriesofchemicalreactionsinthesurfaceoceanthatreducespHandresultsinocean acidification(OA)InshortOAmakesseawatercorrosivetocalciumcarbonatemineralswhichmanymarineorganismsrelyonforbodystructuresHigh0latitudeoceanshave naturallylowcarbonateconcentrationssoareconsideredtobemorevulnerabletotheimpactsofOAbecauseadditionalcarbonatelossrepresentsamuchgreaterproportionalchangetothesystemInanovelstudyMathisetalprovideariskassessmentofOAimpacts tocommercialandtraditionalfisheriesfocusedonshellfishsalmonandfinfishTheresultant indexsuggeststhatwhilethenorthernBeringSeaisatmediumriskfromOAimpactsto fisheriesPacificArcticwatersnorthoftheSewardPeninsulaarecurrentlyatlowriskduelargelytoalackofdependenceonthesefoodsources

3)Lower)Trophic)Level)Communities)signals)from)direct)and)indirect)sampling

ThepredominantconceptualmodelframinghowmarineecosystemsinthePacificArctic respondtoreducedseaiceisbasedonchangesanticipatedfromashiftinpelagic0benthic coupling(Fig4)

Figure)4))Generalized)conceptual)model)depicting)the)influence)of)sea)ice)on)pelagicVbenthic)coupling)on) Pacific)Arctic)continental)shelves)

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OnthebroadshelvesthatcomprisemuchofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemnewprimaryproductionfromsea0icealgaeandphytoplanktonbloomsfallstotheseafloortosupportrich benthiccommunities(Grebmeier2012)Asseaicethinsandretreatsearlierintheseasonitisanticipatedthatearlierandlargerphytoplanktonbloomswillswitchfromabenthic0 dominatedtoapelagic0dominatedmarineecosystemThisshiftwillcascadethroughthesystemsupportingnovelcommunitiesofsecondaryandtertiaryconsumers(zooplanktonandforagefishes)anduppertrophiclevelmarinebirdsandmammalsIndeedGrebmeieret al(2006)suggestedthatthistypeofecosystemshiftisalreadyunderwayinthemarinecommunitiesofthenorthernBeringSeaThePacificArcticisoftendescribedasabenthic0 dominatedmarineecosystemonethatdoesnotsupportalargebiomassorspeciesdiversityoffishesAdescriptionofconditionsthathavefosteredexistingbenthichotspotsoffersa solidfoundationforassessingfuturechangeswhileanaccountingoftheexistingcommunitiesofmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsprovidesastartingpointuponwhichtobuildalong0termrecord)

31Benthichotspotsandmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitats

ArecordofextantconditionsiskeytointerpretingmarineecosystemresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingnowevidentinthePacificArcticSucharecordexistsforfourbenthic lsquohotspotrsquocommunitiesinthenorthernBeringandChukchiseas(Grebmeieretal2015a)but notformarinefishesLong0termsamplingofbenthicmacrofaunalcommunitiesindicatesthatthebenthichotspotshavemaintainedconsistentlyhighbiomassforuptofourdecadesdueto reoccurrenceofseasonallyreliablemoderate0to0highwatercolumnproductioncoupledwithexportofcarbonfromoverlyingwaterstotheseafloorUppertrophiclevelbenthivorestargetpreyaggregationsineachofthehotspotsOverallbottom0upforcingbyhydrography andfoodsupplytothebenthosinfluencespersistenceandcompositionofbenthicpreywhichinturninfluencestheuppertrophiclevelspeciescompositionandseasonaloccurrence Whenconsistentlysampledintandemthesebenthos0benthivoreconnectionscanfacilitate useofUTLspeciesassentinelsofshiftsinpreycompositionandabundance(Mooreetal2014)

Sincethe2000stherehavebeenahostofArcticmarinefishsurveysintheChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasprecipitatedbybothscientificinterestintheimpactsofclimatechangeandcommercialinterestinoilandgasdevelopment(Logerwelletal2015)Resultsfrom thesesurveysprovideanovelopportunitytocompareArcticfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsrangingfromlagoonsandbeachestobenthicandpelagiccontinental shelfwatersAsynthesisofdatafromthesesurveysrevealedmoresimilaritiesthandifferencesinhabitatusebetweenthetwoseasForexamplenearshorehabitatisusedbyallageclassesofforagefishesandisalsoanurseryareaforotherspeciesinboththeChukchiand westernBeaufortseasNotablysomecommercialspeciesmaybeexpandingtheirrangenorthtothesewatersincludingchinooksalmon(Oncorhynchustshawytscha)walleyepollock (Gaduschalcogrammus)andflatfishes(Pleuronectidae)Inadditionasynthesisofinformationonrelativeabundanceandageofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)andsaffroncod

25

(Eleginusgracilis)bothkeypreyspeciesinArcticfoodwebssupportedthedevelopmentoflifehistoryanddistributionmodelsthatwillinformfutureresearchontrophicdynamicsin thePacificArcticsector

32Inferencesofmarineecosystemshiftsfromsealsseabirdsandseaducks

Additionalinformationregardingtheimpactoflsquonewnormalrsquobiophysicalconditionsonlowertrophiclevelspeciescanbeinferredfromshiftsinthedietandbodyconditionofmarine mammalsandbirdsCrawfordetal(2015)comparedthedietandconditionofringedseals(Pusahispida)andbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)harvestedintheAlaskanBeringand Chukchiseasduringhistorical(197501984)andrecent(200302012)periodsTheyfoundthe proportionoffishinthedietofbothspeciesincreasedintherecentreduced0iceperiodcomparedtothehistoricalperiodInadditionringedsealsgrewfasterhadthickerblubber andmaturedtwoyearsearlierBeardedsealshadthickerblubberintherecentperiodbut didnotmanifesttheotherchangesreportedfortheringedsealsAlthoughanumberofthe comparisonswerenotstatisticallysignificanttakentogethertheseobservationssuggestgreaterfishavailabilityintheAlaskanBering0Chukchimarineecosystemsupportinggood bodyconditionintheseals

AsinthesealpaperDivokyetal(2015)parsedalong0termdatasetintorecent(200302012)andhistorical(197501984)periodstocompareoceanographicconditionsnestlingdietandfledgingsuccessatablackguillemot(Cepphusgryllemandtii)breedingcolonyinthewestern BeaufortSeaFrom15Julyto1Septemberseaiceretreatedanaverageof18kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof958kmfromthecolonyduringthehistoricalperiodwhileinthe recentperiodiceretreataveraged98kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof5069kmSeasurfacetemperaturenearthecolonyincreasedby29⁰CbetweenthetwoperiodsWhileArcticcodcomprisedover95ofthepreyprovidedtonestlingsinthehistoricalperiodthis proportiondecreasedtolt5ofthenestlingdietduringmostyearsintherecentperiodwhendemersalsculpin(Cottidae)comprisedthemajorityofthedietTheshiftawayfrom Arcticcodwasassociatedwithafive0foldincreaseintherateofnestlingstarvationand reductionsinnestlinggrowthandfledgingmassConverselyannualadultsurvivalduringthe nonbreedingseason(September0May)showednosignificantdifferencebetweenthetwo periodssuggestingnochangeintheavailabilityofArcticcodorinoverallpreyavailabilityto blackguillemotsintheirBeringSeawinteringarea

IncontrasttoarelianceonpelagicpreyLovvornetal(2015)investigatedpotentialclimate0 relatedlimitstobenthicfeedingbyseaducksalongtheirmigrationcorridorinthenortheasternChukchiSeaKingeiders(Somateriaspectabilis)primarilyeatclams(bivalves) duringmigrationandrecentsamplinghasshownthatdenseclamassemblagesoccuronlyinspecificlocationsalongthemigrationcorridorSeaicecanpreventeidersfromreachingtheseprimefeedingsiteswithsatellitedataforApril‒May(2001‒2013)showingthataccess canvaryfrom0‒100InawarmingandincreasinglyvariableclimateaccesstobenthicfeedingsitesmaybefurthererodedbytheeffectsofwindsonunconsolidatediceThese

26

resultsunderscoretheimportanceofmaintainingarangeofbenthicfeedingareasthroughoutthemigrationcorridortoensurepreyavailabilitytotheeiderseachyear)

4)Upper)Trophic)Level)Species)marine)birds)and)mammals)as)ecosystem)sentinels

Astoppredatorsmarinebirdsandmammalsmustadapttochangesintheirhabitatsresultingfromphysicalforcingandtherebycanserveassentinelstoecosystemshifts(Mooreetal2014MooreandGulland2014)ResponsesofUTLspeciestoalteredhabitatscanbe categorizedasextrinsicincludingshiftsinrangemigratorytiming(phenology)orregionsofhighabundance(hotspots)orintrinsicincludingchangesindietbodyconditionand chemicalcomposition(Fig5)

Figure)5)Marine)birds)and)mammals)are)upper)trophic)level)(UTL))species)that)reflect)ecosystem) alterations)by)changes)in)habitat)use)(extrinsic))and)body)condition)(intrinsic))revealing)fundamental) changes)in)marine)ecosystems)

Responsesareinter0relatedsuchthatashiftinrangephenologyoruseofhotspotswillbe reflectedinchangesindietbodyconditionandchemistryItisthisconnectionthatallowsus

27

todetectecosystemreorganizationbytrackingchangesintheecologyandphysiologyofUTL speciesAlthoughtherehavebeennocoordinatedlong0termstudiesofUTLspeciesinthe PacificArcticexaminingthisconnectionasynthesisofinformationfromvisualsurveyssatellitetaggingofindividualsandyear0roundacousticdetectionsprovidesanecological foundationthatcanprovideabaselinetoinformfutureinvestigations

41Seasonaloccurrencehotspothabitatsandacousticecology

Kuletzetal(2015)depictspatialpatternsofrelativeabundanceofseabirdsandmarinemammalsinsummerandfallderivedfromsixyearsofvisualsurveysintheeasternChukchi andwesternBeaufortseasUsingstatisticalspatialanalysistoolshotspotsforseabirdswalrusandgraywhaleswereidentifiedintheChukchiSeawhilehotspotsforbowheadwhalesandsealsweredescribednearBarrowCanyonandalongtheBeaufortSeashelfand slopeHotspotsforbelugasoccurredinboththeChukchiandBeaufortseasInsummerthreehotspotsweresharedbybothseabirdsandmarinemammalsintheChukchiSeawaters offshoreWainwrightsouthofHannaShoalandatthemouthofBarrowCanyonOnlytheBarrowCanyonhotspotwasoccupiedthroughthefallSharedhotspotswerecharacterized bystrongfrontscausedbyupwellingandcurrentswhichcanservetoaggregatepreyUsingadifferentapproachCittaetal(2015)providedetailedanalysisoftheseasonalmovementsandhabitatusebyasinglespeciesthroughoutoneyearLocationsfrom54bowheadwhales (Balaenamysticetus)obtainedbysatellitetelemetryfrom200602012wereusedtoidentifya totalofsixcore0useareasintheBeaufort(3)Chukchi(1)andnorthernBering(2)seas Takentogetherthetimingofuse(phenology)andphysicalcharacteristics(oceanographyseaiceandwinds)associatedwitheachareadescribeaseasonalcircuitbythewhalesthroughareasthoughttosupportelevatedpreydensities

Passiveacousticsamplinghasbecomeacommonyear0roundtooltodetectcallingmarine mammalsinarcticseas(Mooreetal2006Staffordetal2012)Since2007therehasbeenanespeciallystrongsamplingeffortassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationinthenortheast ChukchiandwesternBeaufortseas(egHannayetal2013 httpwwwafscnoaagovnmmlcetaceanchaozphp)Theserecorderdeployments augmentalong0standingacousticstudyinthecentralBeaufortSea(Blackwelletal2007)andmorerecentdeploymentsintheBeringStraitregion(KStaffordperscomm)HeretoforeresearchersconductedeachofthesestudiesindependentlyofoneanotherClark etal(2015)presentsanovelsynthesisofthecombinedoutputfromsixresearcheffortsusingfourtypesofrecordersandavarietyofsub0samplingandanalysisschemestodescribean lsquoacousticyearrsquointhelifeofthebowheadwhaleDetectionsofbowheadcallsfrom20sitesextendingover2300kmfromthenorthernBeringSeatothesoutheastBeaufortSeawere combinedovera140monthperiod(200902010)todescribewhaleoccurrenceacrosstheir rangeThespatialandtemporalvariabilityinsoundlevelswithinthefrequencybandofbowheadwhaleswasalsoquantifiedThelowestunderwatersoundlevelsoccurredfromlate NovemberuntilMayintheChukchiSeaDuringwinter200902010singingbowheadwhaleselevatedbroadbandsoundlevelsforroughly38daysinthenorthernBeringSeafollowedby

28

asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

29

ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

31

Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

32

(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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ArrigoKRand vanDijkenGL2015ContinuedincreasesinArcticOceanprimaryproductionProgressinOceanography13660070

AshjianCJBraund SRCampbell RGGeorgeJC Kruse JMaslowski WMooreSE Nicolson CROkkonen SR SherrBF Sherr EBandSpitz Y2010Climate variabilityoceanographybowheadwhaledistributionandInupiatsubsistence whalingnearBarrowAlaskaArctic63(2)1790194

BerlineLSpitzYH AshjianCJ CampbellRG Maslowski WandMoore SE2008 EuphausiidtransportintheWesternArcticOceanMarineEcologyProgressSeries360 1630178

BlackwellSBRichardsonWJGreeneCRStreeverB2007Bowheadwhale(Balaena mysticetus)migrationandcallingbehaviorintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaautumn2001004 anacousticlocalizationstudyArctic602550270

BlockBAJonsenIDJorgensenSJ+18co0authors2011TrackingapexmarinepredatormovementsinadynamicoceanNature475doi101038nature10082

BluhmBACoyle KOKonar BandHighsmith R2007Highgraywhalerelativeabundances associatedwithanoceanographicfrontinthesouth0centralChukchiSeaDeepSea ResearchII291902933

BondNStabenoPNappJinpressFlowpatternsintheChukchiSeabasedonanoceanreanalysisJunethroughOctober197902014

CarmackEDBarberJChristensenRMacdonaldBRudelsandESakshaug2006Climatevariabilityandphysicalforcingofthefoodwebsandcarbonbudgetonpanarcticshelves ProgressinOceanography711450181

CarmackEWassmannP2006Foodwebsandphysical0biologicalcouplingonpan0Arctic shelvesunifyingconceptsandcomprehensiveperspectivesProgressinOceanography714460477

CarmackEWinsorPWilliamsW2015ThecontiguouspanarcticRiverineCoastal DomainaunifyingconceptProgressinOceanography13913023

46

CittaJJQuakenbushLTOkkonenSRDruckenmillerMLMaslowskiWClement0 KinneyJGeorgeJCBrowerHSmallRJAshjianCJHarwoodLAHeide0Joslashrgensen MP2015Ecologicalcharacteristicsofcore0useareasusedbyBeringndashChukchindashBeaufort(BCB)bowheadwhales2006ndash2012ProgressinOceanography1362010222

CittaJJOkkonenSRQuakenbushLTMaslowskiWOsinskiRGeorgeJCSmallRJ BrowerJrHHeide0JoslashrgensenMPHarwoodLAinpressaOceanographiccharacteristicsassociatedwithautumnmovementsofbowheadwhalesintheChukchi Sea

CittaJJQuakenbushLTLondonJMFrostKJFischbachASLowryLFOrsquoCorry0Crowe GJayCVCrawfordJABovengPLCameronMVonDuykeALNelsonMHarwoodLARichardPSuydamRHeide0JoslashrgensenMPHobbsRCLitovkaDI GeorgeJCKellyBPSmithTGKennedyAGoodwinJOrrJGrayTinpressbOverlapofmarinemammalrangesandmulti0speciescoreuseareasasynthesisof satellitetelemetrydatainthePacificArctic

ClarkCWBerchokCLBlackwellSBHannayDEJonesJPonirakisDStaffordKM 2015AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesintheBeringChukchiand BeaufortseasProgressinOceanography1362230240

CooperLWGrebmeierJMinpressDepositionpatternsontheChukchishelfusingradionuclideinventoriesinrelationtosurfacesedimentcharacteristics

CrawfordJAQuakenbushLTCittaJJ2015Acomparisonofringedandbeardedsealdiet conditionandproductivitybetweenhistorical(1975ndash1984)andrecent(2003ndash2012)periodsintheAlaskanBeringandChukchiseasProgressinOceanography1361330150

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DanielsonSLWeingartnerTJHedstromKSAagaardKWoodgateRCurchitserEStabenoPJ2014Coupledwind0forcedcontrolsoftheBering0Chukchishelfcirculation andtheBeringStraitthroughflowEkmantransportcontinentalshelfwavesand variationsofthePacific0ArcticseasurfaceheightgradientProgressinOceanography12540061

DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarcticsea iceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161

DruckenmillerMLCittaJJFergusonMCClarkeJTGeorgeJCQuakenbushLinpressTrendsinsea0icecoverwithinbowheadwhalehabitatsinthePacificArctic

47

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Dunton KH Grebmeier JM and Trefry JH2014ThebenthicecosystemofthenortheasternChukchiSeaanoverviewofitsuniquebiogeochemistryandbiological characteristicsDeep0SeaResearchII102108

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EllisonWTRaccaRClarkCWStreeverBFrankelASFleishmanEAnglissRBergerJKettenDGuerraMLeuMMcKennaMSformoTSouthallBSuydamR ThomasL2016Modelingtheaggregatedexposureandresponsesofbowheadwhales BalaenamysticetustomultiplesourcesofanthropogenicunderwatersoundEndangeredSpeciesResearch30950108

FeelyRADoneySCCooleySR2009Oceanacidificationpresentconditionsandfuture changesinahigh0CO2worldOceanography2236047

FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015DivergentpatternsofrecentseaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049

GeorgeJCBadaJZehJScottLBrownSEOharaTampSuydamR1999Ageandgrowthestimatesofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)viaasparticacid racemizationCanadianJournalofZoology775710580

GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgress inOceanography1362500262

GilesKALaxonSWRidoutALWinghamDJBaconS2012WesternArcticOceanfreshwaterstorageincreasedbywind0drivenspin0upoftheBeaufortGyreNature Geoscience51940197

GrebmeierJMOverlandJEMooreSEFarleyEVCarmackECCooperLWFreyKEHelleJHMcLaughlinFAMcNuttSL2006AmajorecosystemshiftinthenorthernBeringSeaScience311146101464

GrebmeierJM2012ShiftingpatternsoflifeinthePacificArcticandsub0arcticseasAnnual ReviewofMarineScience41610166

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48

GrebmeierJMMooreSE Overland JEFrey KEandGradinger R2010BiologicalresponsetorecentPacificArcticseaiceretreatsEOS91(18)1610168

GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarke JTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSH LovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015aEcosystemcharacteristicsand processesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114

GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDenisenkoSGIkenKKedraMSerratosC 2015bTime0seriesbenthiccommunitycompositionandbiomassandassociatedenvironmentalcharacteristicsintheChukchiSeaduringtheRUSALCA200402012programOceanography231160133

GrebmeierJMCooperLWAshjianCABluhmBACampbellRBDuntonKEMooreJ OkkonenSSheffieldGTrefryJPasternakSY2015cPacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(PacMARS)FinalReportNorthPacificResearchBoard259pp

HannayDEDelarueJMouyXMartinBSLearyDOswaldJNVallartaJ2013 MarinemammalacousticdetectionsinthenortheasternChukchiSeaSeptember2007ndashJuly2011ContinentalShelfResearch671270146

HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015Change intheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

HillVArdynaMLeeSHVarelaDEinpressDecadaltrendsinphytoplankton productioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

preferenceandbehaviorinthenortheasternChukchiSea1982084RepIntWhale Commn362730279

MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 6: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

INTRODUCTION)

ChangestothephysicalenvironmentoftheUSArcticOuterContinentalShelf(OCS)aredrivingshiftsinthedistributionandbehaviorofanumberofprotectedmarinemammalspeciesthatinhabitthosewatersThesamespeciesmaybeaffectedbyoilandgasactivities withinOCSPlanningAreaswithstrongpotentialfordeleteriousinteractionsbetweennaturalandhumaninducedphenomenaEnvironmentalregulations(egNEPAtheESAandthe MMPA)requiretheBureauofOceanEnergyManagement(BOEM)toevaluatewhetherand howfederalactionsassociatedwithoilandgasdevelopmentmayaffecttheseprotectedspeciesandthemarineenvironmentonwhichtheydependInformationonoceancirculation andhydrographyisusefulfortheseevaluationsaswellasforinputintomodelsusedtopredicttheoutcomeofoilspillsHoweverphysicsalonecannotpredicthowprotected speciesandthemarineecosystemsuponwhichtheydependwillrespondtonaturalandanthropogenicforcingGivenrecentinvestmentsbyBOEMotherfederalagencies(egNOAA USGSNSF)andtheoilandgasindustryininterdisciplinarybiologicalandoceanographicresearchinthePacificArcticregion(PAR)asynthesisofresultsofcompletedandongoingstudieswillhelptoinformmanagementdecision0makersandtoguidefutureresearch activities

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)PhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArcticprojectprovidesaframeworkforasynthesisofscientificinformationdrawnfromcompleted andongoingmarineresearchinthePacificArcticregionTheSOARprojectaimstoincreasescientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsbenthicorganismslowertrophicpreyspecies(foragefishandzooplankton)andmarinemammal distributionandbehaviorinthePARwithparticularemphasisonthenortheasternChukchiSeaSOARfurtheraimstoenhanceourcapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographic featuressuchascurrentsupwellingandiceleadsandassociatedchangesinthebehaviorof marinemammalsandtheirpreyintheregionandtoeffectivelytransmitfindingsofsynthesis activitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArcticresidentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

InthisreportweprovidedetailonthebackgroundmethodsandresultsoftheSOARprojectandsummarizethescientificoutcomesacrossthefirstandsecondphasesofSOAR

6

BACKGROUND

ThePacificArcticregioncompriseswatersnorthofStMatthewIsland(60degNlatitude)inthenorthernBeringChukchiBeaufortandEastSiberianseas(Grebmeieretal2010)Theregionisanin0flowsystemtotheArctic(Carmacketal2006)withthreedistinctwater massesflowingnorththroughBeringStraitthenbathymetricallychanneledacrosstheChukchiSeashelfandintotheBeaufortSeabasin(Fig1)Theannualadvanceandretreatof seaiceisthekeyphysicaldriverofprimaryproductiontrophicinteractionsandhumanaccessandactivitiesovertheentirePARThephysicalclimateofthePARischangingrapidlydrivingchangeacrosstheregionalmarineecosystems(GrebmeierandMaslowski2014)

Figure)1))Map)of)study)area)showing)principal)currents)(red)lines))and)mean)seaVice)maximum)(spring)) and)minimum)(fall))extent)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

Thesummerminimumsea0iceextentin2007and2008coveredanareathatwas37less thanthearealcoverageoftwodecadespriorand20lessthanthepreviousminimumcoveragein2005(Stroeveetal2008)Thepaceofthesechangeswasunexpectedasthe consensusoftheclimateresearchcommunitywasthatsuchchangeswouldnotbeseenfor

7

another30years(WangandOverland2009)Thereductioninsea0iceareaopensupvastnew regionsoftheArcticOceantoincreasedabsorptionofsunlightandstorageofheatThisheat isreturnedtotheatmosphereinthefollowingautumnresultinginincreasedArctic temperaturesofmorethan5degCextendingthesea0icefreeseasonthroughNovemberandcausingchangesinwindpatternsThesephysicalchangestotheArcticsystemappeartobe irreversible

Marinemammalsrespondtochangesinseaiceaccordingtotheirdependencyonitforvitallifefunctions(MooreandHuntington2008Kovacsetal2010)InthePARthedramaticchangesinseasonalsea0iceextentandtypeappeartohaveprecipitatedchangesinmarine mammalmigrationandfeedingpatternsForexamplelargeaggregationsofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)feedroutinelynearBarrowfromlatesummerthroughautumna phenomenonpreviouslyconsideredlsquosporadicrsquo(Mooreetal2010)Graywhales(Eschrichtius robustus)consideredatemperatespeciescommonlyfeednearthebowheadwhaleswhereas thetwospeciesappearedtobespatiallyandtemporallysegregatedintheearly1980s(Mooreetal1986)

Inadditiontothechangesinmarinemammalecologyanorthwardshiftofsomefishspecies(egSpencer2008MueterandLitzow2008RandandLogerwell2010)andtheprevalenceof euphausiids(Thysanoessaspp)indicatedthatthetrophicstructureofthePARischangingEuphausiidsareimportantpreyforbowheadandgraywhales(Ashjianetal2010Bluhmet al2007)andpossiblyalsoforicesealsEuphausiidsarethoughttobetransportedintothe PARfromthenorthernBeringSeaasreproductionhasneverbeenobservedinwatersnorthofBeringStrait(Berlineetal2008)Coupledtothisisthegeneraldearthofinformationon distributionandabundanceofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)inthePARaspeciesconsideredessentialintheshorttrophicfoodwebscommontopolarmarineecosystems(Ainleyand DeMaster1990)Examinationandsynthesisofhownaturalandhuman0associated environmentalvariabilityimpactsmarinemammalsrequiresinvestigationofthebiophysical changestotrophicstructureanddynamicsoftheirfishandinvertebrateprey

During200502015BOEMmadeextensiveinvestmentsinmarinemammalandrelated oceanographicstudiesintheeasternhalfofthePAR(ietheInternationalDateLineeastto theCanadianBeaufort)Datafromthosestudieswillconsiderablyaugmentthebodyof knowledgefortheregionbutinterpretationwouldbeconstrainedifresultsarenot integratedwithotherresearcheffortsAddressingthisintegrationwasthegenesisofthe SOARprojecttoundertakesynthesisofresearchfromongoingBOEMstudiesinthePARwhichincludebutarenotlimitedtothefollowing

bull BowheadWhaleFeedingVariabilityintheWesternAlaskanBeaufortSeaSatelliteTrackingofBowheadWhaleMovementsFeedingampOceanography

bull PassiveAcousticDetectionandMonitoringofEndangeredWhalesintheArctic

8

bull EcosystemObservationsintheChukchiSeaBiophysicalMooringandClimateModeling

bull ChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea(COMIDA)ChemistryandBenthos

bull DistributionandRelativeAbundanceofMarineMammalsCOMIDAAerialSurveys

bull HannaShoalEcosystemStudy

bull MonitoringtheDistributionofArcticWhales(alsoknownasBWASP)

bull WalrusHabitatUseinthePotentialDrillingArea

bull PinnipedMovementsandForagingBeardedSeals

bull AssessingReproductionandBodyConditionoftheRingedSealnearSachsHarbourNorthwestTerritoryCanadathroughaHarvest0basedSamplingProgram

bull ArcticmarineresearchstudiessupportedthroughNationalOceanPartnership Program(NOPP)towhichBOEMcontributes

bull StudiesconductedbytheAlaskaDepartmentofFishandGame(ADFampG)andtheNorthSlopeBorough(NSB)underBOEMrsquosCoastalImpactAssistanceProgram(CIAP)

Dataandresultsfromrelated(butnotBOEM0funded)studiesthatalsocontributetotheSOAR includebutarenotlimitedtothefollowing

bull NOAArsquosRUSALCAprogram(USA0RussiabilateralstudyoftheChukchiSea)

bull StudiessupportedbyNSFOfficeofPolarPrograms

bull StudiessupportedbytheLandscapeConservationCooperativeNetwork

bull StudiessupportedbytheAlaskaDepartmentofFishampGametheUSGeologicalSurveyandbytheUSFishampWildlifeService

bull Studiessupportedbyoilandgasindustry(egShellConocoPhillipsStatOilBritishPetroleum)relatedtomitigationandmonitoringofeffectsofoffshoreexplorationanddevelopmentonmarinemammalsandtheirenvironmentegtheChukchiSea EnvironmentalStudiesProgram(CSESP)

)

)

)

9

OBJECTIVES)AND)METHODS)

)

OBJECTIVES

)

TheSOARprojectfocusedonthreeobjectives

1 Increasescientificunderstandingoftheinter0andintra0relationshipsofoceanographicconditionsbenthicorganismslowertrophicpreyspecies(foragefishand zooplankton)andmarinemammaldistributionandbehaviorinthePARwithparticularemphasisontheChukchiSealeaseareas

2 Enhancecapabilitytopredictchangesinoceanographicfeaturessuchascurrents upwellingandiceleadsandassociatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARwithparticularemphasisonthenortheasternChukchiSea

3 EffectivelytransmitfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

)

METHODS

TASKFRAMEWORK

TheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojectwastouseavailableanalyticalandmodelingapproachestoidentifyandtesthypothesesthatcrossscientificdisciplinesSOARprovidesa frameworktosupportasynthesisofscientificinformationdrawnfromcompletedandongoingmarineresearchinthePacificArcticregionTheframeworkconsistsofsixtasks

1 establishaScienceSteeringCommitteetoprovideleadershipandoversightforthe synthesisproject

2 conductaSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)WorkshopinvolvingPIsfromall relevantresearchprogramsto

i identifyanddevelopsciencesynthesisthemesii detailrequireddataandanalysesforeachtheme iii formAnalyticalTeamstosupporttheworkofeachsynthesisthemeiv listanticipatedworkproducts(iepeer0reviewedpapersandpresentations)

and

10

v deriveameanstoarchivedataandmeta0datausedinsupportofthesynthesis 3 supportAnalyticalTeamdataintegrationandanalysisincludingtheme0based

meetingsasneeded 4 trackprogressofanalyticalworkviabi0monthlyteleconferencesandannualSCCAT0

updateworkshops 5 producescienceproductsincludingpresentationsatprofessionalmeetingsand

publicationofpeer0reviewedpapersasaSpecialIssueamporThemeSectionsinanappropriatescientificjournaland

6 communicatesynthesisapproachandfindingstolocalArcticresidentsresourcemanagersnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

TASKDETAIL

TASK)1)))ESTABLISH)AND)CONVENE)SCIENTIFIC)STEERING)COMMITTEE)

LeadershipandguidanceofthesynthesisprojectwasprovidedbyaScienceSteeringCommittee(SSC)formedofseniorscientistswithdecades0longexperienceinthePacific ArcticAttheinitialSSCmeetingthegroupidentifiedrelevantprojectsdeveloped provisionalsciencethemesandidentifiedpotentialparticipantsandleadersfor interdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeamsformedatthesubsequentSOARWorkshop

TASK)2)))PLAN)AND)CONDUCT)SOAR)WORKSHOP)

Amulti0disciplinarySOARWorkshopwasthekeystoneinitialproductofSOARWorkshop participantsinventoriedavailabledataandevaluateditssufficiencytoaddressspecificcross0 disciplinaryhypothesesandquestionsprovisionallyidentifiedassciencethemesbytheSSCTheprovisionallistofthemeswasmodifiedandnewthemesemergedattheworkshopOnce sciencethemeswereagreeduponinterdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeams(AT)wereformedto conductthecoreworkoftheSOARprojectInterdisciplinaryATstheninitiatedthe developmentofshortproposalstosupporttheworkrequiredfordataintegrationanalyses andormodeling

TASK)3))SUPPORT)DATA)INTEGRATION)ANALYSIS)AND)MODELING

Inresponsetoproposalsdetailingtheworktobeperformedtimelineandproducts anticipatedmdashandincoordinationwithSSCreviewmdashfundingwasprovidedviacontractfor selectedATstointegratedataconductanalysesrunmodelsandordeveloppublicationsInsomecasesdirectfundingwasnotneededandin0kindsupportwasprovidedintheformofreviewcoordinationandpublicationfacilitationAsubsetofATsintegratedtheirworkwith

11

on0goingoceanographicprograms(egRUSALCAandtheDistributedBiologicalObservatory[DBO])andinsomecasestheATsconductedfollow0ontheme0basedmeetingsorintegrativeworkshopsasthebestmeanstoaccomplishdataintegrationandsynthesisontheirtopic OtherATschosetointegratetheirworkviavideoorteleconferenceswiththebulkofcontract fundinggoingtowardssupportforagraduatestudentpost0docorotherresearcherto accomplishthesynthesistasksidentified)

TASK)4))TRACK)PROGRESS)OF)ANALYTICAL)WORK)

ATleadshadprimaryresponsibilityfortrackingtheprogressofworkontheirsciencethemeandmembersoftheSSCwerealsoaskedtofollowtheprogressoftheworktowardsuseful productsTrackingtooktheformofcontactatregularintervals(egbimonthly)viae0mailorphonesolicitingspecificinformationonproblemsencounteredandadherencetotimelineforproductcompletionSummariesofprogressoneachthemeappearedinQuarterlyReportsto theBOEM

TASK)5))SCIENCE)PRODUCTS))

ThecoreproductoftheSOARprojectwasaseriesofsciencepresentationsandpeer0reviewedpapersdescribingcurrentandprojectedstatusofthePARmarineecosystemAnnual presentationsontheapproachandprogressoftheSOARwereprovidedatplenarysessionsof theAlaskaMarineScienceSymposiumandadditionalpresentationsweremadeatother sciencevenuessuchastheAGUOceanSciencesmeetingSciencepaperswerethenpublishedinspecialissuesofpeer0reviewedjournalswiththeprojectPIsandcoordinatorservingas GuestEditors

TASK)6))COMMUNICATION)OF)SYNTHESIS)APPROACH)amp)PRODUCTS)

Inadditiontosciencepapersandpresentationsresultsofthesyntheseswereprovidedto communitiesinelectronicandhardcopyformatandopportunitiestospeakwithArcticresidentsweresoughtatco0managementmeetingsandotherforaAwebsitewasdeveloped providinggraphicsandbriefsummariesforgeneraluseandlinkingtootherrelevantsitesResultsofthesynthesiswerecommunicatedtovariousnationalandinternationalArctic Programs(egNOAAArcticReportCardSEARCHISACPAGIASCandArcticCouncilWorkingGroups)

12

SOARPHASE1ANDSOARPHASE2

Task5(ScienceProducts)wasoriginallyenvisagedtoresultinaspecialvolumeofpeer0reviewedpaperspossiblysupplementedbyanadditionalsmallersetofpapersinatheme sectionorothersimilaroutletHoweverfollowingcompletionofthefirstphaseofSOARculminatinginthe2015specialissueofProgressinOceanography(MooreandStabeno2015 seeResultssectionbelowformoreinformation)therewasahighlevelofinterestinextendingSOARtoincludeadditionalsynthesisThereforethesecondphaseofSOARwas developedbuildingfromaninformalmid0projectworkshopandresultinginasecondfullspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchIIFurtherdetailisprovidedinthefollowingsections

RESULTS)

FOUNDATIONALTASKSSCIENCESTEERINGCOMMITTEEANDWORKSHOP

THESOARSCIENCESTEERINGCOMMITTEE

AScienceSteeringCommittee(SCC)comprisedofscientistsandAlaskancoastalcommunityrepresentativeswasestablished(Table1)ThefirstoffiveannualSSCmeetingswasheldfrom103November2011attheWatertownHotelinSeattleWATheSSCidentifiedrelevantprojects anddatasourcesdevelopedthreedraftsciencethemesandrelatedquestionsandidentified potentialparticipantsandleadersforassociatedinterdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeamsthatwould beformedatSOARScienceWorkshopMultiplesubsequentmeetingsfurtherdevelopedthe sciencethemesandprovidedguidanceforSOARtasks(Table2)

)

Table)1))List)of)Science)Steering)Committee)members)and)institutions)

ScienceSteeringCommitteeMember

Affiliation Location

RobynAngliss NOAANationalMarineMammalLaboratory

SeattleWA

CarinAshjian WoodsHoleOceanographic Institution

WoodsHoleMA

ChristopherClark CornellUniversity IthacaNY

13

JacquelineGrebmeier UniversityofMarylandCenterforEnvironmental Studies

SolomonsMD

CraigGeorge NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EskimoWhaling

ComissionKawerak NomeAK

SueMoore NOAANMFS SeattleWA ChadJay USGeologicalSurvey AnchorageAK TimRagan MarineMammalCommission WashingtonDC PhyllisStabeno NOAAPMEL SeattleWA RobertSuydam NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK TomWeingartner UniversityofAlaska0

Fairbanks FairbanksAK

)

Table)2)List)of)SOAR)SSC)Teleconferences)and)inVperson)meetings)

SOAR)SSC)Meeting) SSCTeleconference1

Date) 21September2011

SSCTeleconference2 18October2011 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingSeattleWA 11November2011 SSCTeleconference3 16February2012 SSCTeleconference4 6April2012 SOARMarchWorkshop 14016March2012 SSCTeleconference5 6July2012 SSCTeleconference6 6October2012 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 21January2013 SSCTeleconference7) 9April2013 SSCTeleconference8) 14November2013 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 20January2014 SSCTeleconference9) 12January2015 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 23January2015 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK(informal)) 26January2016

SOARWORKSHOPndashMARCH2012

TheSOARScienceWorkshopwasheldfrom14016March2012attheEganCenterinAnchorageAlaskaTheSOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandProjectCoordinatorallmembersoftheScienceSteeringCommitteeand42ofthe43invitedSOARContributorsattendedthe

14

workshopDraftScienceThemesandQuestionsdevelopedbytheSOARScienceSteeringCommitteewereprovidedtoparticipantsinadvanceoftheworkshopsummarizedas(i)EcosystemResponsetoBottom0upandorTop0downForcing(ii)MarineBirdsMammalsandFishasEcosystemSentinelsand(iii)AcousticEcology

TheprimarygoalsoftheScienceWorkshopwereto(1)refinetheDraftScienceThemesandQuestions(2)formresearchteamstoundertakeanalysisinsupportofdevelopmentofpeer0reviewedpapersand(3)developshortproposalstoidentifyprojectmilestonesandfinancialsupportrequiredtocompletesyntheticprojects

DayoneoftheworkshopconsistedofdisciplinarytalksinplenarysessiontoprovideallparticipantswiththecurrentstateofknowledgeineachareaofstudyDuringdaytwooftheworkshopsciencethemeswererevisedtoreflectgroupinputParticipantsdividedintothree theme0basedbreakoutgroupsandbegandevelopingsciencequestionstoproposeforSOARDaythreeoftheworkshopbeganwithaplenarysummaryofthepreviousdayrsquosprogress followedbybreakoutgroupstowriteandsubmitone0pageproposalsfortheprojects requestingfundingOntheafternoonofthethirddayanopen0sessionwasheldto communicateworkshopprogresstoBOEMscientistsandmanagerscolleaguesfromtheNorthPacificResearchBoardandAlaskaOceanObservingSystemindustryrepresentativesand otherinterestedpartiesFurtherdetailsoftheSOARWorkshopcanbefoundintheSOAR WorkshopReport(SheffieldGuyetal2012a)andseealsoSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)

15

SCIENCEPRODUCTANDCOMMUNICATIONTASKS

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE1 FollowingtheinitialSOARthemeselectionsandteamdevelopmentandincorporatinganextensivepeer0reviewphaseledbytheprojectPIsandcoordinatorthefirstphaseofthe SOARprojectculminatedinaspecialvolumeofProgressinOceanographypublishedinAugust 2015(Fig2Table3)Thisspecialissueincluded16fullpapersplusanintroductionpaper authoredbythetwoprojectPIs

Figure)2)Cover)of)the)first)SOAR)special) volume)published)in)Progress)in)

Oceanography)in)2015)

16

Table)3))Papers)included)in)the)2015)SOAR)special)issue)of)Progress)in)Oceanography)

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsofthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011 WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressinOceanography13612031 FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015Divergentpatternsofrecent seaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049 WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059 ArrigoKRvanDijkenGL2015ContinuedincreasesinArcticOceanprimaryproductionProgressinOceanography13660070 MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJNFeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091 GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarkeJTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSHLovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015EcosystemcharacteristicsandprocessesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114 LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132 CrawfordJAQuakenbushLTCittaJJ2015Acomparisonofringedandbeardedsealdietconditionandproductivitybetweenhistorical(1975ndash1984)andrecent(2003ndash2012)periodsintheAlaskanBeringandChukchiseasProgressinOceanography1361330150 DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarctic seaiceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161 LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015LimitstobenthicfeedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchangingseaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174 KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015SeasonalspatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareas ProgressinOceanography1361750200 CittaJJQuakenbushLTOkkonenSRDruckenmillerMLMaslowskiWClement0KinneyJGeorgeJCBrowerHSmallRJAshjianCJHarwoodLAHeide0Joslashrgensen MP2015Ecologicalcharacteristicsofcore0useareasusedbyBeringndashChukchindashBeaufort(BCB)bowheadwhales2006ndash2012ProgressinOceanography1362010222

17

ClarkCWBerchokCLBlackwellSBHannayDEJonesJPonirakisDStafford KM2015AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasProgressinOceanography1362230240 MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationshipbetweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249 GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgressinOceanography1362500262 HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015ChangeintheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE2

Followingthe2015publicationofthefirstSOARspecialissueinProgressinOceanography theSOARprojectSSCandparticipantsdecidedtopursuecoordinatethepublicationofasetofpapersinfullsecondspecialissueThosePhase2topicsandpaperleadswerediscussedat theannualSOARSSCmeetinginJanuary2015Baseduponsuggestionsatthismeeting102pageproposalswererequestedfromsuggestedpaperleadsandproposalswerethen subsequentlydevelopedintopublishedpapersThemajorityofpapersforthesecondspecial issuewerecompletedandinpressbytheendof2017(Table4)withfinalpublicationofthe completespecialissueinDeepSeaResearchIIndashTopicalStudiesinOceanographyexpectedby latesummer2018

Table)4))Papers)to)appear)in)the)SOAR)2nd)Phase)special)issue)published)in)Deep)Sea)Research)Part)II)

Corresponding) Author Manuscript)Title

SueMoore IntroductionTheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)Project

MuyinWang SeaiceandoceancharacteristicsintheChukchiSeabyselectedCMIP5modelsthepresentandthefuture

NicholasBond DiagnosisofphysicaloceanographiceventsintheChukchiSea usinganoceanreanalysis

VictoriaHill DecadaltrendsinphytoplanktonproductioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

18

JessicaCross FormationandtransportofcorrosivewaterinthePacificArcticRegion

LeeCooper DepositionpatternsontheChukchiShelfusingradionuclide inventoriesinrelationtosurfacesedimentcharacteristics

Matthew Druckenmiller

Trendsinsea0icecoverandupwellingpotentialwithinBowheadwhaleuseareasintheWesternArctic

KateStafford AcousticecologyofbowheadandbelugawhalesincoreuseareasintheBeaufortandChukchiSeas

JohnCitta Oceanographiccharacteristicsassociatedwithbowheadwhale movementsintheChukchiSea

JohnCitta SeasonaldistributionandoverlapofmarinemammalsintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseas

KimberlyRand UsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

ElizabethLogerwell Environmentaldriversofbenthicfishdistributioninandaround BarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwesternBeaufortSea

KathleenStafford BelugawhalesintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaasynthesisofavailableinformationontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StephenOkkonen Relationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskanBeaufortSea

MartinRobards UnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesintheAlaskanArcticPlace0basedcollaborationswithAlaskaNative communities

SueMoore TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)ModellinkingtemporalprocessestocontiguousdomainsinthePacificArctic

19

PRESENTATIONSANDPOSTERSATSCIENTIFICMEETINGS

SOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandcontributorsmademorethan50presentationsincludinginformationaboutthissynthesiseffortatavarietyofscientificmeetingsworkshopsandwebinarsAfulllistofthesepresentationsisprovidedinAppendixC

OTHERCOMMUNICATIONOFSYNTHESISAPPROACHANDPRODUCTS

TheSynthesisofArcticResearchwebsitelocatedathttpswwwpmelnoaagovsoar providesbackgroundinformationandup0to0datescienceproductinformationtostakeholders andthegeneralpublicThewebsitewillcontinuetobeliveandhostedbyNOAA

Severalpeer0reviewedpaperswerepublishedthatalsoappealtoamoregeneralortrans0 disciplineaudienceincludingSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)andSheffieldGuyetal(2016)SOARsynthesisresultswerefeaturedinnumerousnewspapersonlinefeaturesmagazines andmore

SYNTHESIS)SUMMARY)AND)DISCUSSION)

SOARPHASEI

ThefirstphaseofSOARresultedinfifteenpaperspublishedinaspecialissueofProgressin Oceanographyin2015(Table3)HereweprovideabroadoverviewanddiscussionofthepapersinthatspecialissuedrawnfromtheIntroductiontothatissue(MooreandStabeno 2015)

1 Introduction)

TheinitiationoftheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)projectcoincidedwiththerecognitionthatbiophysicalchangesinthePacificArcticregionweresoextremecomparedtotherecentpastthattheyacquiredthemonikerlsquonewnormalrsquo(Jeffriesetal2013) ConsequentlydescribingthebiophysicalpropertiesofthelsquonewlsquoPacificArcticmarineecosystemwasfoundationaltotheSOAReffortandthefocusoffivepapersinthefirstspecial issueExaminingbiologicalresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingthenbecamethetaskofresearchersfocusedonthestudyoflowertrophiclevel(LTL)communitiesanduppertrophiclevel(UTL)speciesTwopapersprovideintegratedresultsfromdirectsamplingofbenthic andfishcommunitieswhilethreepapersreportonchangesinLTLspeciesoccurrenceinferredbyshiftsinthedietsofsealsandmarinebirdsSixpapersfocusonUTLspecieswith fourpresentinginformationonseasonaloccurrenceinhotspotorcore0usehabitatsandtwo describingvariabilityinmarinemammalbodyconditioninthecontextofdecadal0scale

20

environmentalvariabilityTogetherthesepapersprovideasyntheticcontexttofocushypothesesunderpinningthenextdecadeofresearchinthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

2)Biophysics)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

ThePacificArcticmarineecosystemiscomprisedofinflowshelves(northernBeringandChukchiseas)coupledtointeriorshelves(EastSiberianandBeaufortseas)withthe contrastingbiophysicsofthesedomainssummarizedinCarmacketal(2006)Circulationon bothinflowandinteriorshelvesislinkedtopan0arcticteleconnectionmechanisms(egArcticOscillation)withinteriorshelvesalsostronglyinfluencedbytheseasonaloutflowof relativelywarmfreshwaterfromarcticriversEvaluatingecosystemstatusandtrendsinthePacificArcticwasthefocusofarecentbookwith10(of12)chaptersdevotedtoobservationsandmodelingoftheatmosphereoceanphysicsandchemistry(GrebmeierandMaslowski 2014)Thepapersinthefirstspecialissueaddtothatbodyofknowledgeespeciallywithregardtobiologicalresponsestobiophysicaldriversandinthiswaycontributetoamore holisticunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

21)PhysicalobservationsandopenwaterprojectionsinthelsquonewnormalrsquoPacificArctic

Recentobservations(200302013)ofenvironmentalchangesinthePacificArcticsupportthecontentionthatanewnormalclimateisemerging(Fig3Jeffriesetal2013Woodetal 2015)

Figure)3))Highlights)of)recent)biophysical)changes)in)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

21

Theiconicindicatorofthischangeisthedramaticsummertimelossofseaice(50byarea75byvolume)whichinsomeyears(eg2012)hasresultedinnearlyice0freeconditionsin theregionSpecificallysatellitedatafrom197902012reveallocalizedchangesinsea0ice occurrenceofupto0164daysyearintheCanadaBasinand0124daysyearintheBeaufort Seawhichacceleratedto0657daysyear(CanadaBasin)and01284daysyear(Beaufort Sea)duringthe200002012period(Freyetal2015)Multiyearseaicehasalmostentirelydisappearedwithinter0annualvariabilityiniceconcentrationlargelydrivenbywindforcing intheBeaufortSeaIntheCanadaBasindifferencesinannualseaiceareprimarilythermallydrivenwhilesea0iceextentisinfluencedbybothwindsandheatontheBeringSeashelf

Thesummeratmosphericpatternsinfluenceoceancirculationfreshwaterpathwaysand movementandmeltingofseaiceDuringthelastdecadetheintensificationoftheBeaufortHigh(OgiandWallace2012)resultedinanomaloussummerwindsTheseanomalouswinds togetherwiththelossofmulti0yeariceweretheprimaryfactorsthattransformedtheChukchiandnorthernBeaufortseasintoanopenwaterenvironment(Woodetal2015)InparticulartheeasternBeaufortSeaappearstobeparticularlysusceptibletoanomalouswindsthrough theireffectontheadvectionofwarmfreshwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumeInadditiontransportanomaliesintheBeringStraitaredeterminedbycompetinglarge0scale atmosphericpatternstheBeaufortHighandAleutianLow(Danielsonetal2014)NotablychangesinBeringStraitflowthroughcanimpacttheworldclimatefarbeyondtheBeringStraitandArcticregion(egHuetal2015)

Freyetal(2015)investigatetheinfluenceofthePacificDecadalOscillation(PDO)andtheArcticOscillation(AO)onthepersistenceofseaiceinsummerandwinterTheyfoundsignificantnegativecorrelationsbetweenseaiceonthesoutheasternBeringSeashelfandthe PDOinwinteraswellassignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweentheAOandsea0icecoverjustsouthofStLawrenceIslandSignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweenthePDOandsea iceintheCanadaBasin0CanadianArchipelagowerefoundinsummeraswellasbetweentheAOandseaiceintheChukchi0BeaufortseasThisnovelinvestigationofteleconnections betweenthePDOtheAOandsea0icecoverprovidesacriticalstepinunderstandinghow globalandregionalclimatepatternsinfluencethephysicsofthePacificArcticregion

Theunprecedentedlossofseaicehasresultedinatremendousincreaseinopen0water susceptibletorapidsolarheatingwithadditionalheatandfreshwaterprovidedbya50 increaseinPacificWaterinflowatBeringStraitfrom200102011(Woodgateetal2012 Woodetal2015)TheinfluenceofincreasedheatstoredintheChukchiandBeaufortseasis notwellunderstoodSuggestionsthatheatreleasedtotheatmosphereinlateautumnandwinterdrivesaspectsofmid0latitudeweatherremainspeculativelargelyduetotheshort timerecordavailable(Woodetal2015)FresheningoftheArcticOceanhasbeenoccurring atleastsincethe1990s(egGilesetal2012)Severalexplanationshavebeenproposed includingincreasedsea0icemeltfresherPacificWaterflowingthroughBeringStraitchanges inthemagnitudeofriverdischargeandthemeanstrengtheningoftheBeaufortHighInrecentyearsrelativelystrongeasterlywindshavebeencommonduetotheArctic0wide

22

patternofcirculationaroundanintensifiedBeaufortHighUndertheseconditionsfreshand warmwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumecanbelaterallytransportedfaroutintothe BeaufortSea(Woodetal2015)

WangandOverland(2015)comparedresultsfromtwelvecoupledclimatemodelstoproducecompositeprojectionsofthedurationofopenwaterintheChukchiandBeaufortseasat decadalintervalsfrom201002050andin2090Forwatersnorthofthe70degNopen0water durationshiftsfrom304monthsin2010toaprojected~5monthsby2040Projectedopen0 waterdurationisaboutonemonthlongeralongthesamelatitudesintheChukchiSeacomparedwiththeBeaufortSeawithuncertaintyofaboutplusmn1monthestimatedfromtherangeofmodelresultsAllmodelsprojectedopen0waterdurationtoexpandquicklyoverthe nextthreedecadeswhichwillimpactregionaleconomicaccessandpotentiallyalterecosystemsYetthePacificArcticregionwillremaincoveredwiththinfirst0yearicefrom JanuarythroughMayintothesecondhalfofthecenturyduetoseasonallackofsunlight

22Changesinprimaryproductionandoceanacidification

Thedramaticlossofsea0iceextentandvolumehasresultedinaconcomitantincreaseinlightpenetrationintheupperoceanacrosstheArcticGiventhethinningandarealreductionof seaiceafundamentalquestionariseshavethesechangesfosteredanincreaseinmarineprimaryproductionSpecificallyisthePacificArcticregionmoreproductivethanitwasthreedecadesagoIntheAtlanticArcticLeuetal(2011)measuredprimaryproductionby bothicealgaeandphytoplanktonincontrastingyears(2007008)ofsea0icecoverinaSvalbardfjordandconcludedthatearliericebreakupcorrespondedwithearlieronsetofa phytoplanktonbloomSimilarlyTremblayetal(2012)reportincreasedprimaryproductionfor2007008associatedwithextremesea0iceretreatsandincreasedupwellingatstations locatedsouthandeastofBanksIslandinthesoutheasternBeaufortSeaButcanconclusions drawnfrommeasurementssorestrictedinspaceandtimebeextrapolatedtolargerarcticregionsUsingsatelliteimageryArrigoandvanDijken(2015)investigatedchangesinseaice atbothregionalandbasinscalesfrom199802012andestimatedhowthesechangeshaveimpactedratesofnetprimaryproduction(NPP)byphytoplanktonTheyreportthatannual NPPincreased30duringthisperiodwiththelargestincreasesontheinteriorshelves (includingtheEastSiberianandBeaufort)andsmallerincreasesoninflowshelves(includingtheChukchi)OutflowshelveseitherexhibitednochangeinannualNPPoradeclineperhaps indicatingthatnutrientshadbeenconsumedfurtherupstreamIncreasedannualNPPwasoftenbutnotalwaysassociatedwithreducedsea0iceextentandresultantlonger phytoplanktongrowingseason

HumanactivitieshaveincreasedtheatmosphericCO2concentrationbyabout40sincethebeginningoftheindustrialageanditisestimatedthattheoceanhasabsorbedmorethan25

23

ofthetotalanthropogenicemissions(Mathisetal2015)TheoceanicuptakeofCO2triggersaseriesofchemicalreactionsinthesurfaceoceanthatreducespHandresultsinocean acidification(OA)InshortOAmakesseawatercorrosivetocalciumcarbonatemineralswhichmanymarineorganismsrelyonforbodystructuresHigh0latitudeoceanshave naturallylowcarbonateconcentrationssoareconsideredtobemorevulnerabletotheimpactsofOAbecauseadditionalcarbonatelossrepresentsamuchgreaterproportionalchangetothesystemInanovelstudyMathisetalprovideariskassessmentofOAimpacts tocommercialandtraditionalfisheriesfocusedonshellfishsalmonandfinfishTheresultant indexsuggeststhatwhilethenorthernBeringSeaisatmediumriskfromOAimpactsto fisheriesPacificArcticwatersnorthoftheSewardPeninsulaarecurrentlyatlowriskduelargelytoalackofdependenceonthesefoodsources

3)Lower)Trophic)Level)Communities)signals)from)direct)and)indirect)sampling

ThepredominantconceptualmodelframinghowmarineecosystemsinthePacificArctic respondtoreducedseaiceisbasedonchangesanticipatedfromashiftinpelagic0benthic coupling(Fig4)

Figure)4))Generalized)conceptual)model)depicting)the)influence)of)sea)ice)on)pelagicVbenthic)coupling)on) Pacific)Arctic)continental)shelves)

24

OnthebroadshelvesthatcomprisemuchofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemnewprimaryproductionfromsea0icealgaeandphytoplanktonbloomsfallstotheseafloortosupportrich benthiccommunities(Grebmeier2012)Asseaicethinsandretreatsearlierintheseasonitisanticipatedthatearlierandlargerphytoplanktonbloomswillswitchfromabenthic0 dominatedtoapelagic0dominatedmarineecosystemThisshiftwillcascadethroughthesystemsupportingnovelcommunitiesofsecondaryandtertiaryconsumers(zooplanktonandforagefishes)anduppertrophiclevelmarinebirdsandmammalsIndeedGrebmeieret al(2006)suggestedthatthistypeofecosystemshiftisalreadyunderwayinthemarinecommunitiesofthenorthernBeringSeaThePacificArcticisoftendescribedasabenthic0 dominatedmarineecosystemonethatdoesnotsupportalargebiomassorspeciesdiversityoffishesAdescriptionofconditionsthathavefosteredexistingbenthichotspotsoffersa solidfoundationforassessingfuturechangeswhileanaccountingoftheexistingcommunitiesofmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsprovidesastartingpointuponwhichtobuildalong0termrecord)

31Benthichotspotsandmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitats

ArecordofextantconditionsiskeytointerpretingmarineecosystemresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingnowevidentinthePacificArcticSucharecordexistsforfourbenthic lsquohotspotrsquocommunitiesinthenorthernBeringandChukchiseas(Grebmeieretal2015a)but notformarinefishesLong0termsamplingofbenthicmacrofaunalcommunitiesindicatesthatthebenthichotspotshavemaintainedconsistentlyhighbiomassforuptofourdecadesdueto reoccurrenceofseasonallyreliablemoderate0to0highwatercolumnproductioncoupledwithexportofcarbonfromoverlyingwaterstotheseafloorUppertrophiclevelbenthivorestargetpreyaggregationsineachofthehotspotsOverallbottom0upforcingbyhydrography andfoodsupplytothebenthosinfluencespersistenceandcompositionofbenthicpreywhichinturninfluencestheuppertrophiclevelspeciescompositionandseasonaloccurrence Whenconsistentlysampledintandemthesebenthos0benthivoreconnectionscanfacilitate useofUTLspeciesassentinelsofshiftsinpreycompositionandabundance(Mooreetal2014)

Sincethe2000stherehavebeenahostofArcticmarinefishsurveysintheChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasprecipitatedbybothscientificinterestintheimpactsofclimatechangeandcommercialinterestinoilandgasdevelopment(Logerwelletal2015)Resultsfrom thesesurveysprovideanovelopportunitytocompareArcticfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsrangingfromlagoonsandbeachestobenthicandpelagiccontinental shelfwatersAsynthesisofdatafromthesesurveysrevealedmoresimilaritiesthandifferencesinhabitatusebetweenthetwoseasForexamplenearshorehabitatisusedbyallageclassesofforagefishesandisalsoanurseryareaforotherspeciesinboththeChukchiand westernBeaufortseasNotablysomecommercialspeciesmaybeexpandingtheirrangenorthtothesewatersincludingchinooksalmon(Oncorhynchustshawytscha)walleyepollock (Gaduschalcogrammus)andflatfishes(Pleuronectidae)Inadditionasynthesisofinformationonrelativeabundanceandageofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)andsaffroncod

25

(Eleginusgracilis)bothkeypreyspeciesinArcticfoodwebssupportedthedevelopmentoflifehistoryanddistributionmodelsthatwillinformfutureresearchontrophicdynamicsin thePacificArcticsector

32Inferencesofmarineecosystemshiftsfromsealsseabirdsandseaducks

Additionalinformationregardingtheimpactoflsquonewnormalrsquobiophysicalconditionsonlowertrophiclevelspeciescanbeinferredfromshiftsinthedietandbodyconditionofmarine mammalsandbirdsCrawfordetal(2015)comparedthedietandconditionofringedseals(Pusahispida)andbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)harvestedintheAlaskanBeringand Chukchiseasduringhistorical(197501984)andrecent(200302012)periodsTheyfoundthe proportionoffishinthedietofbothspeciesincreasedintherecentreduced0iceperiodcomparedtothehistoricalperiodInadditionringedsealsgrewfasterhadthickerblubber andmaturedtwoyearsearlierBeardedsealshadthickerblubberintherecentperiodbut didnotmanifesttheotherchangesreportedfortheringedsealsAlthoughanumberofthe comparisonswerenotstatisticallysignificanttakentogethertheseobservationssuggestgreaterfishavailabilityintheAlaskanBering0Chukchimarineecosystemsupportinggood bodyconditionintheseals

AsinthesealpaperDivokyetal(2015)parsedalong0termdatasetintorecent(200302012)andhistorical(197501984)periodstocompareoceanographicconditionsnestlingdietandfledgingsuccessatablackguillemot(Cepphusgryllemandtii)breedingcolonyinthewestern BeaufortSeaFrom15Julyto1Septemberseaiceretreatedanaverageof18kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof958kmfromthecolonyduringthehistoricalperiodwhileinthe recentperiodiceretreataveraged98kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof5069kmSeasurfacetemperaturenearthecolonyincreasedby29⁰CbetweenthetwoperiodsWhileArcticcodcomprisedover95ofthepreyprovidedtonestlingsinthehistoricalperiodthis proportiondecreasedtolt5ofthenestlingdietduringmostyearsintherecentperiodwhendemersalsculpin(Cottidae)comprisedthemajorityofthedietTheshiftawayfrom Arcticcodwasassociatedwithafive0foldincreaseintherateofnestlingstarvationand reductionsinnestlinggrowthandfledgingmassConverselyannualadultsurvivalduringthe nonbreedingseason(September0May)showednosignificantdifferencebetweenthetwo periodssuggestingnochangeintheavailabilityofArcticcodorinoverallpreyavailabilityto blackguillemotsintheirBeringSeawinteringarea

IncontrasttoarelianceonpelagicpreyLovvornetal(2015)investigatedpotentialclimate0 relatedlimitstobenthicfeedingbyseaducksalongtheirmigrationcorridorinthenortheasternChukchiSeaKingeiders(Somateriaspectabilis)primarilyeatclams(bivalves) duringmigrationandrecentsamplinghasshownthatdenseclamassemblagesoccuronlyinspecificlocationsalongthemigrationcorridorSeaicecanpreventeidersfromreachingtheseprimefeedingsiteswithsatellitedataforApril‒May(2001‒2013)showingthataccess canvaryfrom0‒100InawarmingandincreasinglyvariableclimateaccesstobenthicfeedingsitesmaybefurthererodedbytheeffectsofwindsonunconsolidatediceThese

26

resultsunderscoretheimportanceofmaintainingarangeofbenthicfeedingareasthroughoutthemigrationcorridortoensurepreyavailabilitytotheeiderseachyear)

4)Upper)Trophic)Level)Species)marine)birds)and)mammals)as)ecosystem)sentinels

Astoppredatorsmarinebirdsandmammalsmustadapttochangesintheirhabitatsresultingfromphysicalforcingandtherebycanserveassentinelstoecosystemshifts(Mooreetal2014MooreandGulland2014)ResponsesofUTLspeciestoalteredhabitatscanbe categorizedasextrinsicincludingshiftsinrangemigratorytiming(phenology)orregionsofhighabundance(hotspots)orintrinsicincludingchangesindietbodyconditionand chemicalcomposition(Fig5)

Figure)5)Marine)birds)and)mammals)are)upper)trophic)level)(UTL))species)that)reflect)ecosystem) alterations)by)changes)in)habitat)use)(extrinsic))and)body)condition)(intrinsic))revealing)fundamental) changes)in)marine)ecosystems)

Responsesareinter0relatedsuchthatashiftinrangephenologyoruseofhotspotswillbe reflectedinchangesindietbodyconditionandchemistryItisthisconnectionthatallowsus

27

todetectecosystemreorganizationbytrackingchangesintheecologyandphysiologyofUTL speciesAlthoughtherehavebeennocoordinatedlong0termstudiesofUTLspeciesinthe PacificArcticexaminingthisconnectionasynthesisofinformationfromvisualsurveyssatellitetaggingofindividualsandyear0roundacousticdetectionsprovidesanecological foundationthatcanprovideabaselinetoinformfutureinvestigations

41Seasonaloccurrencehotspothabitatsandacousticecology

Kuletzetal(2015)depictspatialpatternsofrelativeabundanceofseabirdsandmarinemammalsinsummerandfallderivedfromsixyearsofvisualsurveysintheeasternChukchi andwesternBeaufortseasUsingstatisticalspatialanalysistoolshotspotsforseabirdswalrusandgraywhaleswereidentifiedintheChukchiSeawhilehotspotsforbowheadwhalesandsealsweredescribednearBarrowCanyonandalongtheBeaufortSeashelfand slopeHotspotsforbelugasoccurredinboththeChukchiandBeaufortseasInsummerthreehotspotsweresharedbybothseabirdsandmarinemammalsintheChukchiSeawaters offshoreWainwrightsouthofHannaShoalandatthemouthofBarrowCanyonOnlytheBarrowCanyonhotspotwasoccupiedthroughthefallSharedhotspotswerecharacterized bystrongfrontscausedbyupwellingandcurrentswhichcanservetoaggregatepreyUsingadifferentapproachCittaetal(2015)providedetailedanalysisoftheseasonalmovementsandhabitatusebyasinglespeciesthroughoutoneyearLocationsfrom54bowheadwhales (Balaenamysticetus)obtainedbysatellitetelemetryfrom200602012wereusedtoidentifya totalofsixcore0useareasintheBeaufort(3)Chukchi(1)andnorthernBering(2)seas Takentogetherthetimingofuse(phenology)andphysicalcharacteristics(oceanographyseaiceandwinds)associatedwitheachareadescribeaseasonalcircuitbythewhalesthroughareasthoughttosupportelevatedpreydensities

Passiveacousticsamplinghasbecomeacommonyear0roundtooltodetectcallingmarine mammalsinarcticseas(Mooreetal2006Staffordetal2012)Since2007therehasbeenanespeciallystrongsamplingeffortassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationinthenortheast ChukchiandwesternBeaufortseas(egHannayetal2013 httpwwwafscnoaagovnmmlcetaceanchaozphp)Theserecorderdeployments augmentalong0standingacousticstudyinthecentralBeaufortSea(Blackwelletal2007)andmorerecentdeploymentsintheBeringStraitregion(KStaffordperscomm)HeretoforeresearchersconductedeachofthesestudiesindependentlyofoneanotherClark etal(2015)presentsanovelsynthesisofthecombinedoutputfromsixresearcheffortsusingfourtypesofrecordersandavarietyofsub0samplingandanalysisschemestodescribean lsquoacousticyearrsquointhelifeofthebowheadwhaleDetectionsofbowheadcallsfrom20sitesextendingover2300kmfromthenorthernBeringSeatothesoutheastBeaufortSeawere combinedovera140monthperiod(200902010)todescribewhaleoccurrenceacrosstheir rangeThespatialandtemporalvariabilityinsoundlevelswithinthefrequencybandofbowheadwhaleswasalsoquantifiedThelowestunderwatersoundlevelsoccurredfromlate NovemberuntilMayintheChukchiSeaDuringwinter200902010singingbowheadwhaleselevatedbroadbandsoundlevelsforroughly38daysinthenorthernBeringSeafollowedby

28

asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

29

ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

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Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

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(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

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Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

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32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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46

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47

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FeelyRADoneySCCooleySR2009Oceanacidificationpresentconditionsandfuture changesinahigh0CO2worldOceanography2236047

FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015DivergentpatternsofrecentseaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049

GeorgeJCBadaJZehJScottLBrownSEOharaTampSuydamR1999Ageandgrowthestimatesofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)viaasparticacid racemizationCanadianJournalofZoology775710580

GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgress inOceanography1362500262

GilesKALaxonSWRidoutALWinghamDJBaconS2012WesternArcticOceanfreshwaterstorageincreasedbywind0drivenspin0upoftheBeaufortGyreNature Geoscience51940197

GrebmeierJMOverlandJEMooreSEFarleyEVCarmackECCooperLWFreyKEHelleJHMcLaughlinFAMcNuttSL2006AmajorecosystemshiftinthenorthernBeringSeaScience311146101464

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GrebmeierJMMooreSE Overland JEFrey KEandGradinger R2010BiologicalresponsetorecentPacificArcticseaiceretreatsEOS91(18)1610168

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GrebmeierJMCooperLWAshjianCABluhmBACampbellRBDuntonKEMooreJ OkkonenSSheffieldGTrefryJPasternakSY2015cPacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(PacMARS)FinalReportNorthPacificResearchBoard259pp

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HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015Change intheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

HillVArdynaMLeeSHVarelaDEinpressDecadaltrendsinphytoplankton productioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

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MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

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OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

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SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

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52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Moore

TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

Mathis

UsinganEnvironmentalIntelligenceFrameworktoEvaluatetheImpactsof

OceanAcidificationintheArctic

ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

26(Jan(2017(

Moore

The

Arc

tic M

arin

e Pu

lses

Mod

el l

inki

ng a

nnua

l oce

anog

raph

ic p

roce

sses

toco

ntig

uous

eco

logi

cal d

omai

ns in

the

Paci

fic A

rctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

24(Jan(2017(

VanPelt

Synt

hesi

s of A

rctic

Res

earc

h (S

OA

R) ndash

Phy

sics

to m

arin

e m

amm

als i

n th

e Pa

cific

Arc

tic P

hase

II

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22(Apr(2017(

Moore

The

Synt

hesi

s of A

rctic

Res

earc

h (S

OA

R) P

rogr

am in

the

Paci

fic A

rctic

Sec

tor

Inte

rnat

iona

l Con

fere

nce

on A

rctic

Scie

nce

Res

ton

VA

(

(

(

(

60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 7: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

BACKGROUND

ThePacificArcticregioncompriseswatersnorthofStMatthewIsland(60degNlatitude)inthenorthernBeringChukchiBeaufortandEastSiberianseas(Grebmeieretal2010)Theregionisanin0flowsystemtotheArctic(Carmacketal2006)withthreedistinctwater massesflowingnorththroughBeringStraitthenbathymetricallychanneledacrosstheChukchiSeashelfandintotheBeaufortSeabasin(Fig1)Theannualadvanceandretreatof seaiceisthekeyphysicaldriverofprimaryproductiontrophicinteractionsandhumanaccessandactivitiesovertheentirePARThephysicalclimateofthePARischangingrapidlydrivingchangeacrosstheregionalmarineecosystems(GrebmeierandMaslowski2014)

Figure)1))Map)of)study)area)showing)principal)currents)(red)lines))and)mean)seaVice)maximum)(spring)) and)minimum)(fall))extent)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

Thesummerminimumsea0iceextentin2007and2008coveredanareathatwas37less thanthearealcoverageoftwodecadespriorand20lessthanthepreviousminimumcoveragein2005(Stroeveetal2008)Thepaceofthesechangeswasunexpectedasthe consensusoftheclimateresearchcommunitywasthatsuchchangeswouldnotbeseenfor

7

another30years(WangandOverland2009)Thereductioninsea0iceareaopensupvastnew regionsoftheArcticOceantoincreasedabsorptionofsunlightandstorageofheatThisheat isreturnedtotheatmosphereinthefollowingautumnresultinginincreasedArctic temperaturesofmorethan5degCextendingthesea0icefreeseasonthroughNovemberandcausingchangesinwindpatternsThesephysicalchangestotheArcticsystemappeartobe irreversible

Marinemammalsrespondtochangesinseaiceaccordingtotheirdependencyonitforvitallifefunctions(MooreandHuntington2008Kovacsetal2010)InthePARthedramaticchangesinseasonalsea0iceextentandtypeappeartohaveprecipitatedchangesinmarine mammalmigrationandfeedingpatternsForexamplelargeaggregationsofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)feedroutinelynearBarrowfromlatesummerthroughautumna phenomenonpreviouslyconsideredlsquosporadicrsquo(Mooreetal2010)Graywhales(Eschrichtius robustus)consideredatemperatespeciescommonlyfeednearthebowheadwhaleswhereas thetwospeciesappearedtobespatiallyandtemporallysegregatedintheearly1980s(Mooreetal1986)

Inadditiontothechangesinmarinemammalecologyanorthwardshiftofsomefishspecies(egSpencer2008MueterandLitzow2008RandandLogerwell2010)andtheprevalenceof euphausiids(Thysanoessaspp)indicatedthatthetrophicstructureofthePARischangingEuphausiidsareimportantpreyforbowheadandgraywhales(Ashjianetal2010Bluhmet al2007)andpossiblyalsoforicesealsEuphausiidsarethoughttobetransportedintothe PARfromthenorthernBeringSeaasreproductionhasneverbeenobservedinwatersnorthofBeringStrait(Berlineetal2008)Coupledtothisisthegeneraldearthofinformationon distributionandabundanceofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)inthePARaspeciesconsideredessentialintheshorttrophicfoodwebscommontopolarmarineecosystems(Ainleyand DeMaster1990)Examinationandsynthesisofhownaturalandhuman0associated environmentalvariabilityimpactsmarinemammalsrequiresinvestigationofthebiophysical changestotrophicstructureanddynamicsoftheirfishandinvertebrateprey

During200502015BOEMmadeextensiveinvestmentsinmarinemammalandrelated oceanographicstudiesintheeasternhalfofthePAR(ietheInternationalDateLineeastto theCanadianBeaufort)Datafromthosestudieswillconsiderablyaugmentthebodyof knowledgefortheregionbutinterpretationwouldbeconstrainedifresultsarenot integratedwithotherresearcheffortsAddressingthisintegrationwasthegenesisofthe SOARprojecttoundertakesynthesisofresearchfromongoingBOEMstudiesinthePARwhichincludebutarenotlimitedtothefollowing

bull BowheadWhaleFeedingVariabilityintheWesternAlaskanBeaufortSeaSatelliteTrackingofBowheadWhaleMovementsFeedingampOceanography

bull PassiveAcousticDetectionandMonitoringofEndangeredWhalesintheArctic

8

bull EcosystemObservationsintheChukchiSeaBiophysicalMooringandClimateModeling

bull ChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea(COMIDA)ChemistryandBenthos

bull DistributionandRelativeAbundanceofMarineMammalsCOMIDAAerialSurveys

bull HannaShoalEcosystemStudy

bull MonitoringtheDistributionofArcticWhales(alsoknownasBWASP)

bull WalrusHabitatUseinthePotentialDrillingArea

bull PinnipedMovementsandForagingBeardedSeals

bull AssessingReproductionandBodyConditionoftheRingedSealnearSachsHarbourNorthwestTerritoryCanadathroughaHarvest0basedSamplingProgram

bull ArcticmarineresearchstudiessupportedthroughNationalOceanPartnership Program(NOPP)towhichBOEMcontributes

bull StudiesconductedbytheAlaskaDepartmentofFishandGame(ADFampG)andtheNorthSlopeBorough(NSB)underBOEMrsquosCoastalImpactAssistanceProgram(CIAP)

Dataandresultsfromrelated(butnotBOEM0funded)studiesthatalsocontributetotheSOAR includebutarenotlimitedtothefollowing

bull NOAArsquosRUSALCAprogram(USA0RussiabilateralstudyoftheChukchiSea)

bull StudiessupportedbyNSFOfficeofPolarPrograms

bull StudiessupportedbytheLandscapeConservationCooperativeNetwork

bull StudiessupportedbytheAlaskaDepartmentofFishampGametheUSGeologicalSurveyandbytheUSFishampWildlifeService

bull Studiessupportedbyoilandgasindustry(egShellConocoPhillipsStatOilBritishPetroleum)relatedtomitigationandmonitoringofeffectsofoffshoreexplorationanddevelopmentonmarinemammalsandtheirenvironmentegtheChukchiSea EnvironmentalStudiesProgram(CSESP)

)

)

)

9

OBJECTIVES)AND)METHODS)

)

OBJECTIVES

)

TheSOARprojectfocusedonthreeobjectives

1 Increasescientificunderstandingoftheinter0andintra0relationshipsofoceanographicconditionsbenthicorganismslowertrophicpreyspecies(foragefishand zooplankton)andmarinemammaldistributionandbehaviorinthePARwithparticularemphasisontheChukchiSealeaseareas

2 Enhancecapabilitytopredictchangesinoceanographicfeaturessuchascurrents upwellingandiceleadsandassociatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARwithparticularemphasisonthenortheasternChukchiSea

3 EffectivelytransmitfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

)

METHODS

TASKFRAMEWORK

TheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojectwastouseavailableanalyticalandmodelingapproachestoidentifyandtesthypothesesthatcrossscientificdisciplinesSOARprovidesa frameworktosupportasynthesisofscientificinformationdrawnfromcompletedandongoingmarineresearchinthePacificArcticregionTheframeworkconsistsofsixtasks

1 establishaScienceSteeringCommitteetoprovideleadershipandoversightforthe synthesisproject

2 conductaSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)WorkshopinvolvingPIsfromall relevantresearchprogramsto

i identifyanddevelopsciencesynthesisthemesii detailrequireddataandanalysesforeachtheme iii formAnalyticalTeamstosupporttheworkofeachsynthesisthemeiv listanticipatedworkproducts(iepeer0reviewedpapersandpresentations)

and

10

v deriveameanstoarchivedataandmeta0datausedinsupportofthesynthesis 3 supportAnalyticalTeamdataintegrationandanalysisincludingtheme0based

meetingsasneeded 4 trackprogressofanalyticalworkviabi0monthlyteleconferencesandannualSCCAT0

updateworkshops 5 producescienceproductsincludingpresentationsatprofessionalmeetingsand

publicationofpeer0reviewedpapersasaSpecialIssueamporThemeSectionsinanappropriatescientificjournaland

6 communicatesynthesisapproachandfindingstolocalArcticresidentsresourcemanagersnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

TASKDETAIL

TASK)1)))ESTABLISH)AND)CONVENE)SCIENTIFIC)STEERING)COMMITTEE)

LeadershipandguidanceofthesynthesisprojectwasprovidedbyaScienceSteeringCommittee(SSC)formedofseniorscientistswithdecades0longexperienceinthePacific ArcticAttheinitialSSCmeetingthegroupidentifiedrelevantprojectsdeveloped provisionalsciencethemesandidentifiedpotentialparticipantsandleadersfor interdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeamsformedatthesubsequentSOARWorkshop

TASK)2)))PLAN)AND)CONDUCT)SOAR)WORKSHOP)

Amulti0disciplinarySOARWorkshopwasthekeystoneinitialproductofSOARWorkshop participantsinventoriedavailabledataandevaluateditssufficiencytoaddressspecificcross0 disciplinaryhypothesesandquestionsprovisionallyidentifiedassciencethemesbytheSSCTheprovisionallistofthemeswasmodifiedandnewthemesemergedattheworkshopOnce sciencethemeswereagreeduponinterdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeams(AT)wereformedto conductthecoreworkoftheSOARprojectInterdisciplinaryATstheninitiatedthe developmentofshortproposalstosupporttheworkrequiredfordataintegrationanalyses andormodeling

TASK)3))SUPPORT)DATA)INTEGRATION)ANALYSIS)AND)MODELING

Inresponsetoproposalsdetailingtheworktobeperformedtimelineandproducts anticipatedmdashandincoordinationwithSSCreviewmdashfundingwasprovidedviacontractfor selectedATstointegratedataconductanalysesrunmodelsandordeveloppublicationsInsomecasesdirectfundingwasnotneededandin0kindsupportwasprovidedintheformofreviewcoordinationandpublicationfacilitationAsubsetofATsintegratedtheirworkwith

11

on0goingoceanographicprograms(egRUSALCAandtheDistributedBiologicalObservatory[DBO])andinsomecasestheATsconductedfollow0ontheme0basedmeetingsorintegrativeworkshopsasthebestmeanstoaccomplishdataintegrationandsynthesisontheirtopic OtherATschosetointegratetheirworkviavideoorteleconferenceswiththebulkofcontract fundinggoingtowardssupportforagraduatestudentpost0docorotherresearcherto accomplishthesynthesistasksidentified)

TASK)4))TRACK)PROGRESS)OF)ANALYTICAL)WORK)

ATleadshadprimaryresponsibilityfortrackingtheprogressofworkontheirsciencethemeandmembersoftheSSCwerealsoaskedtofollowtheprogressoftheworktowardsuseful productsTrackingtooktheformofcontactatregularintervals(egbimonthly)viae0mailorphonesolicitingspecificinformationonproblemsencounteredandadherencetotimelineforproductcompletionSummariesofprogressoneachthemeappearedinQuarterlyReportsto theBOEM

TASK)5))SCIENCE)PRODUCTS))

ThecoreproductoftheSOARprojectwasaseriesofsciencepresentationsandpeer0reviewedpapersdescribingcurrentandprojectedstatusofthePARmarineecosystemAnnual presentationsontheapproachandprogressoftheSOARwereprovidedatplenarysessionsof theAlaskaMarineScienceSymposiumandadditionalpresentationsweremadeatother sciencevenuessuchastheAGUOceanSciencesmeetingSciencepaperswerethenpublishedinspecialissuesofpeer0reviewedjournalswiththeprojectPIsandcoordinatorservingas GuestEditors

TASK)6))COMMUNICATION)OF)SYNTHESIS)APPROACH)amp)PRODUCTS)

Inadditiontosciencepapersandpresentationsresultsofthesyntheseswereprovidedto communitiesinelectronicandhardcopyformatandopportunitiestospeakwithArcticresidentsweresoughtatco0managementmeetingsandotherforaAwebsitewasdeveloped providinggraphicsandbriefsummariesforgeneraluseandlinkingtootherrelevantsitesResultsofthesynthesiswerecommunicatedtovariousnationalandinternationalArctic Programs(egNOAAArcticReportCardSEARCHISACPAGIASCandArcticCouncilWorkingGroups)

12

SOARPHASE1ANDSOARPHASE2

Task5(ScienceProducts)wasoriginallyenvisagedtoresultinaspecialvolumeofpeer0reviewedpaperspossiblysupplementedbyanadditionalsmallersetofpapersinatheme sectionorothersimilaroutletHoweverfollowingcompletionofthefirstphaseofSOARculminatinginthe2015specialissueofProgressinOceanography(MooreandStabeno2015 seeResultssectionbelowformoreinformation)therewasahighlevelofinterestinextendingSOARtoincludeadditionalsynthesisThereforethesecondphaseofSOARwas developedbuildingfromaninformalmid0projectworkshopandresultinginasecondfullspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchIIFurtherdetailisprovidedinthefollowingsections

RESULTS)

FOUNDATIONALTASKSSCIENCESTEERINGCOMMITTEEANDWORKSHOP

THESOARSCIENCESTEERINGCOMMITTEE

AScienceSteeringCommittee(SCC)comprisedofscientistsandAlaskancoastalcommunityrepresentativeswasestablished(Table1)ThefirstoffiveannualSSCmeetingswasheldfrom103November2011attheWatertownHotelinSeattleWATheSSCidentifiedrelevantprojects anddatasourcesdevelopedthreedraftsciencethemesandrelatedquestionsandidentified potentialparticipantsandleadersforassociatedinterdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeamsthatwould beformedatSOARScienceWorkshopMultiplesubsequentmeetingsfurtherdevelopedthe sciencethemesandprovidedguidanceforSOARtasks(Table2)

)

Table)1))List)of)Science)Steering)Committee)members)and)institutions)

ScienceSteeringCommitteeMember

Affiliation Location

RobynAngliss NOAANationalMarineMammalLaboratory

SeattleWA

CarinAshjian WoodsHoleOceanographic Institution

WoodsHoleMA

ChristopherClark CornellUniversity IthacaNY

13

JacquelineGrebmeier UniversityofMarylandCenterforEnvironmental Studies

SolomonsMD

CraigGeorge NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EskimoWhaling

ComissionKawerak NomeAK

SueMoore NOAANMFS SeattleWA ChadJay USGeologicalSurvey AnchorageAK TimRagan MarineMammalCommission WashingtonDC PhyllisStabeno NOAAPMEL SeattleWA RobertSuydam NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK TomWeingartner UniversityofAlaska0

Fairbanks FairbanksAK

)

Table)2)List)of)SOAR)SSC)Teleconferences)and)inVperson)meetings)

SOAR)SSC)Meeting) SSCTeleconference1

Date) 21September2011

SSCTeleconference2 18October2011 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingSeattleWA 11November2011 SSCTeleconference3 16February2012 SSCTeleconference4 6April2012 SOARMarchWorkshop 14016March2012 SSCTeleconference5 6July2012 SSCTeleconference6 6October2012 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 21January2013 SSCTeleconference7) 9April2013 SSCTeleconference8) 14November2013 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 20January2014 SSCTeleconference9) 12January2015 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 23January2015 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK(informal)) 26January2016

SOARWORKSHOPndashMARCH2012

TheSOARScienceWorkshopwasheldfrom14016March2012attheEganCenterinAnchorageAlaskaTheSOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandProjectCoordinatorallmembersoftheScienceSteeringCommitteeand42ofthe43invitedSOARContributorsattendedthe

14

workshopDraftScienceThemesandQuestionsdevelopedbytheSOARScienceSteeringCommitteewereprovidedtoparticipantsinadvanceoftheworkshopsummarizedas(i)EcosystemResponsetoBottom0upandorTop0downForcing(ii)MarineBirdsMammalsandFishasEcosystemSentinelsand(iii)AcousticEcology

TheprimarygoalsoftheScienceWorkshopwereto(1)refinetheDraftScienceThemesandQuestions(2)formresearchteamstoundertakeanalysisinsupportofdevelopmentofpeer0reviewedpapersand(3)developshortproposalstoidentifyprojectmilestonesandfinancialsupportrequiredtocompletesyntheticprojects

DayoneoftheworkshopconsistedofdisciplinarytalksinplenarysessiontoprovideallparticipantswiththecurrentstateofknowledgeineachareaofstudyDuringdaytwooftheworkshopsciencethemeswererevisedtoreflectgroupinputParticipantsdividedintothree theme0basedbreakoutgroupsandbegandevelopingsciencequestionstoproposeforSOARDaythreeoftheworkshopbeganwithaplenarysummaryofthepreviousdayrsquosprogress followedbybreakoutgroupstowriteandsubmitone0pageproposalsfortheprojects requestingfundingOntheafternoonofthethirddayanopen0sessionwasheldto communicateworkshopprogresstoBOEMscientistsandmanagerscolleaguesfromtheNorthPacificResearchBoardandAlaskaOceanObservingSystemindustryrepresentativesand otherinterestedpartiesFurtherdetailsoftheSOARWorkshopcanbefoundintheSOAR WorkshopReport(SheffieldGuyetal2012a)andseealsoSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)

15

SCIENCEPRODUCTANDCOMMUNICATIONTASKS

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE1 FollowingtheinitialSOARthemeselectionsandteamdevelopmentandincorporatinganextensivepeer0reviewphaseledbytheprojectPIsandcoordinatorthefirstphaseofthe SOARprojectculminatedinaspecialvolumeofProgressinOceanographypublishedinAugust 2015(Fig2Table3)Thisspecialissueincluded16fullpapersplusanintroductionpaper authoredbythetwoprojectPIs

Figure)2)Cover)of)the)first)SOAR)special) volume)published)in)Progress)in)

Oceanography)in)2015)

16

Table)3))Papers)included)in)the)2015)SOAR)special)issue)of)Progress)in)Oceanography)

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsofthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011 WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressinOceanography13612031 FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015Divergentpatternsofrecent seaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049 WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059 ArrigoKRvanDijkenGL2015ContinuedincreasesinArcticOceanprimaryproductionProgressinOceanography13660070 MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJNFeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091 GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarkeJTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSHLovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015EcosystemcharacteristicsandprocessesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114 LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132 CrawfordJAQuakenbushLTCittaJJ2015Acomparisonofringedandbeardedsealdietconditionandproductivitybetweenhistorical(1975ndash1984)andrecent(2003ndash2012)periodsintheAlaskanBeringandChukchiseasProgressinOceanography1361330150 DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarctic seaiceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161 LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015LimitstobenthicfeedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchangingseaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174 KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015SeasonalspatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareas ProgressinOceanography1361750200 CittaJJQuakenbushLTOkkonenSRDruckenmillerMLMaslowskiWClement0KinneyJGeorgeJCBrowerHSmallRJAshjianCJHarwoodLAHeide0Joslashrgensen MP2015Ecologicalcharacteristicsofcore0useareasusedbyBeringndashChukchindashBeaufort(BCB)bowheadwhales2006ndash2012ProgressinOceanography1362010222

17

ClarkCWBerchokCLBlackwellSBHannayDEJonesJPonirakisDStafford KM2015AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasProgressinOceanography1362230240 MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationshipbetweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249 GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgressinOceanography1362500262 HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015ChangeintheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE2

Followingthe2015publicationofthefirstSOARspecialissueinProgressinOceanography theSOARprojectSSCandparticipantsdecidedtopursuecoordinatethepublicationofasetofpapersinfullsecondspecialissueThosePhase2topicsandpaperleadswerediscussedat theannualSOARSSCmeetinginJanuary2015Baseduponsuggestionsatthismeeting102pageproposalswererequestedfromsuggestedpaperleadsandproposalswerethen subsequentlydevelopedintopublishedpapersThemajorityofpapersforthesecondspecial issuewerecompletedandinpressbytheendof2017(Table4)withfinalpublicationofthe completespecialissueinDeepSeaResearchIIndashTopicalStudiesinOceanographyexpectedby latesummer2018

Table)4))Papers)to)appear)in)the)SOAR)2nd)Phase)special)issue)published)in)Deep)Sea)Research)Part)II)

Corresponding) Author Manuscript)Title

SueMoore IntroductionTheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)Project

MuyinWang SeaiceandoceancharacteristicsintheChukchiSeabyselectedCMIP5modelsthepresentandthefuture

NicholasBond DiagnosisofphysicaloceanographiceventsintheChukchiSea usinganoceanreanalysis

VictoriaHill DecadaltrendsinphytoplanktonproductioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

18

JessicaCross FormationandtransportofcorrosivewaterinthePacificArcticRegion

LeeCooper DepositionpatternsontheChukchiShelfusingradionuclide inventoriesinrelationtosurfacesedimentcharacteristics

Matthew Druckenmiller

Trendsinsea0icecoverandupwellingpotentialwithinBowheadwhaleuseareasintheWesternArctic

KateStafford AcousticecologyofbowheadandbelugawhalesincoreuseareasintheBeaufortandChukchiSeas

JohnCitta Oceanographiccharacteristicsassociatedwithbowheadwhale movementsintheChukchiSea

JohnCitta SeasonaldistributionandoverlapofmarinemammalsintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseas

KimberlyRand UsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

ElizabethLogerwell Environmentaldriversofbenthicfishdistributioninandaround BarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwesternBeaufortSea

KathleenStafford BelugawhalesintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaasynthesisofavailableinformationontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StephenOkkonen Relationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskanBeaufortSea

MartinRobards UnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesintheAlaskanArcticPlace0basedcollaborationswithAlaskaNative communities

SueMoore TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)ModellinkingtemporalprocessestocontiguousdomainsinthePacificArctic

19

PRESENTATIONSANDPOSTERSATSCIENTIFICMEETINGS

SOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandcontributorsmademorethan50presentationsincludinginformationaboutthissynthesiseffortatavarietyofscientificmeetingsworkshopsandwebinarsAfulllistofthesepresentationsisprovidedinAppendixC

OTHERCOMMUNICATIONOFSYNTHESISAPPROACHANDPRODUCTS

TheSynthesisofArcticResearchwebsitelocatedathttpswwwpmelnoaagovsoar providesbackgroundinformationandup0to0datescienceproductinformationtostakeholders andthegeneralpublicThewebsitewillcontinuetobeliveandhostedbyNOAA

Severalpeer0reviewedpaperswerepublishedthatalsoappealtoamoregeneralortrans0 disciplineaudienceincludingSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)andSheffieldGuyetal(2016)SOARsynthesisresultswerefeaturedinnumerousnewspapersonlinefeaturesmagazines andmore

SYNTHESIS)SUMMARY)AND)DISCUSSION)

SOARPHASEI

ThefirstphaseofSOARresultedinfifteenpaperspublishedinaspecialissueofProgressin Oceanographyin2015(Table3)HereweprovideabroadoverviewanddiscussionofthepapersinthatspecialissuedrawnfromtheIntroductiontothatissue(MooreandStabeno 2015)

1 Introduction)

TheinitiationoftheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)projectcoincidedwiththerecognitionthatbiophysicalchangesinthePacificArcticregionweresoextremecomparedtotherecentpastthattheyacquiredthemonikerlsquonewnormalrsquo(Jeffriesetal2013) ConsequentlydescribingthebiophysicalpropertiesofthelsquonewlsquoPacificArcticmarineecosystemwasfoundationaltotheSOAReffortandthefocusoffivepapersinthefirstspecial issueExaminingbiologicalresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingthenbecamethetaskofresearchersfocusedonthestudyoflowertrophiclevel(LTL)communitiesanduppertrophiclevel(UTL)speciesTwopapersprovideintegratedresultsfromdirectsamplingofbenthic andfishcommunitieswhilethreepapersreportonchangesinLTLspeciesoccurrenceinferredbyshiftsinthedietsofsealsandmarinebirdsSixpapersfocusonUTLspecieswith fourpresentinginformationonseasonaloccurrenceinhotspotorcore0usehabitatsandtwo describingvariabilityinmarinemammalbodyconditioninthecontextofdecadal0scale

20

environmentalvariabilityTogetherthesepapersprovideasyntheticcontexttofocushypothesesunderpinningthenextdecadeofresearchinthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

2)Biophysics)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

ThePacificArcticmarineecosystemiscomprisedofinflowshelves(northernBeringandChukchiseas)coupledtointeriorshelves(EastSiberianandBeaufortseas)withthe contrastingbiophysicsofthesedomainssummarizedinCarmacketal(2006)Circulationon bothinflowandinteriorshelvesislinkedtopan0arcticteleconnectionmechanisms(egArcticOscillation)withinteriorshelvesalsostronglyinfluencedbytheseasonaloutflowof relativelywarmfreshwaterfromarcticriversEvaluatingecosystemstatusandtrendsinthePacificArcticwasthefocusofarecentbookwith10(of12)chaptersdevotedtoobservationsandmodelingoftheatmosphereoceanphysicsandchemistry(GrebmeierandMaslowski 2014)Thepapersinthefirstspecialissueaddtothatbodyofknowledgeespeciallywithregardtobiologicalresponsestobiophysicaldriversandinthiswaycontributetoamore holisticunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

21)PhysicalobservationsandopenwaterprojectionsinthelsquonewnormalrsquoPacificArctic

Recentobservations(200302013)ofenvironmentalchangesinthePacificArcticsupportthecontentionthatanewnormalclimateisemerging(Fig3Jeffriesetal2013Woodetal 2015)

Figure)3))Highlights)of)recent)biophysical)changes)in)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

21

Theiconicindicatorofthischangeisthedramaticsummertimelossofseaice(50byarea75byvolume)whichinsomeyears(eg2012)hasresultedinnearlyice0freeconditionsin theregionSpecificallysatellitedatafrom197902012reveallocalizedchangesinsea0ice occurrenceofupto0164daysyearintheCanadaBasinand0124daysyearintheBeaufort Seawhichacceleratedto0657daysyear(CanadaBasin)and01284daysyear(Beaufort Sea)duringthe200002012period(Freyetal2015)Multiyearseaicehasalmostentirelydisappearedwithinter0annualvariabilityiniceconcentrationlargelydrivenbywindforcing intheBeaufortSeaIntheCanadaBasindifferencesinannualseaiceareprimarilythermallydrivenwhilesea0iceextentisinfluencedbybothwindsandheatontheBeringSeashelf

Thesummeratmosphericpatternsinfluenceoceancirculationfreshwaterpathwaysand movementandmeltingofseaiceDuringthelastdecadetheintensificationoftheBeaufortHigh(OgiandWallace2012)resultedinanomaloussummerwindsTheseanomalouswinds togetherwiththelossofmulti0yeariceweretheprimaryfactorsthattransformedtheChukchiandnorthernBeaufortseasintoanopenwaterenvironment(Woodetal2015)InparticulartheeasternBeaufortSeaappearstobeparticularlysusceptibletoanomalouswindsthrough theireffectontheadvectionofwarmfreshwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumeInadditiontransportanomaliesintheBeringStraitaredeterminedbycompetinglarge0scale atmosphericpatternstheBeaufortHighandAleutianLow(Danielsonetal2014)NotablychangesinBeringStraitflowthroughcanimpacttheworldclimatefarbeyondtheBeringStraitandArcticregion(egHuetal2015)

Freyetal(2015)investigatetheinfluenceofthePacificDecadalOscillation(PDO)andtheArcticOscillation(AO)onthepersistenceofseaiceinsummerandwinterTheyfoundsignificantnegativecorrelationsbetweenseaiceonthesoutheasternBeringSeashelfandthe PDOinwinteraswellassignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweentheAOandsea0icecoverjustsouthofStLawrenceIslandSignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweenthePDOandsea iceintheCanadaBasin0CanadianArchipelagowerefoundinsummeraswellasbetweentheAOandseaiceintheChukchi0BeaufortseasThisnovelinvestigationofteleconnections betweenthePDOtheAOandsea0icecoverprovidesacriticalstepinunderstandinghow globalandregionalclimatepatternsinfluencethephysicsofthePacificArcticregion

Theunprecedentedlossofseaicehasresultedinatremendousincreaseinopen0water susceptibletorapidsolarheatingwithadditionalheatandfreshwaterprovidedbya50 increaseinPacificWaterinflowatBeringStraitfrom200102011(Woodgateetal2012 Woodetal2015)TheinfluenceofincreasedheatstoredintheChukchiandBeaufortseasis notwellunderstoodSuggestionsthatheatreleasedtotheatmosphereinlateautumnandwinterdrivesaspectsofmid0latitudeweatherremainspeculativelargelyduetotheshort timerecordavailable(Woodetal2015)FresheningoftheArcticOceanhasbeenoccurring atleastsincethe1990s(egGilesetal2012)Severalexplanationshavebeenproposed includingincreasedsea0icemeltfresherPacificWaterflowingthroughBeringStraitchanges inthemagnitudeofriverdischargeandthemeanstrengtheningoftheBeaufortHighInrecentyearsrelativelystrongeasterlywindshavebeencommonduetotheArctic0wide

22

patternofcirculationaroundanintensifiedBeaufortHighUndertheseconditionsfreshand warmwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumecanbelaterallytransportedfaroutintothe BeaufortSea(Woodetal2015)

WangandOverland(2015)comparedresultsfromtwelvecoupledclimatemodelstoproducecompositeprojectionsofthedurationofopenwaterintheChukchiandBeaufortseasat decadalintervalsfrom201002050andin2090Forwatersnorthofthe70degNopen0water durationshiftsfrom304monthsin2010toaprojected~5monthsby2040Projectedopen0 waterdurationisaboutonemonthlongeralongthesamelatitudesintheChukchiSeacomparedwiththeBeaufortSeawithuncertaintyofaboutplusmn1monthestimatedfromtherangeofmodelresultsAllmodelsprojectedopen0waterdurationtoexpandquicklyoverthe nextthreedecadeswhichwillimpactregionaleconomicaccessandpotentiallyalterecosystemsYetthePacificArcticregionwillremaincoveredwiththinfirst0yearicefrom JanuarythroughMayintothesecondhalfofthecenturyduetoseasonallackofsunlight

22Changesinprimaryproductionandoceanacidification

Thedramaticlossofsea0iceextentandvolumehasresultedinaconcomitantincreaseinlightpenetrationintheupperoceanacrosstheArcticGiventhethinningandarealreductionof seaiceafundamentalquestionariseshavethesechangesfosteredanincreaseinmarineprimaryproductionSpecificallyisthePacificArcticregionmoreproductivethanitwasthreedecadesagoIntheAtlanticArcticLeuetal(2011)measuredprimaryproductionby bothicealgaeandphytoplanktonincontrastingyears(2007008)ofsea0icecoverinaSvalbardfjordandconcludedthatearliericebreakupcorrespondedwithearlieronsetofa phytoplanktonbloomSimilarlyTremblayetal(2012)reportincreasedprimaryproductionfor2007008associatedwithextremesea0iceretreatsandincreasedupwellingatstations locatedsouthandeastofBanksIslandinthesoutheasternBeaufortSeaButcanconclusions drawnfrommeasurementssorestrictedinspaceandtimebeextrapolatedtolargerarcticregionsUsingsatelliteimageryArrigoandvanDijken(2015)investigatedchangesinseaice atbothregionalandbasinscalesfrom199802012andestimatedhowthesechangeshaveimpactedratesofnetprimaryproduction(NPP)byphytoplanktonTheyreportthatannual NPPincreased30duringthisperiodwiththelargestincreasesontheinteriorshelves (includingtheEastSiberianandBeaufort)andsmallerincreasesoninflowshelves(includingtheChukchi)OutflowshelveseitherexhibitednochangeinannualNPPoradeclineperhaps indicatingthatnutrientshadbeenconsumedfurtherupstreamIncreasedannualNPPwasoftenbutnotalwaysassociatedwithreducedsea0iceextentandresultantlonger phytoplanktongrowingseason

HumanactivitieshaveincreasedtheatmosphericCO2concentrationbyabout40sincethebeginningoftheindustrialageanditisestimatedthattheoceanhasabsorbedmorethan25

23

ofthetotalanthropogenicemissions(Mathisetal2015)TheoceanicuptakeofCO2triggersaseriesofchemicalreactionsinthesurfaceoceanthatreducespHandresultsinocean acidification(OA)InshortOAmakesseawatercorrosivetocalciumcarbonatemineralswhichmanymarineorganismsrelyonforbodystructuresHigh0latitudeoceanshave naturallylowcarbonateconcentrationssoareconsideredtobemorevulnerabletotheimpactsofOAbecauseadditionalcarbonatelossrepresentsamuchgreaterproportionalchangetothesystemInanovelstudyMathisetalprovideariskassessmentofOAimpacts tocommercialandtraditionalfisheriesfocusedonshellfishsalmonandfinfishTheresultant indexsuggeststhatwhilethenorthernBeringSeaisatmediumriskfromOAimpactsto fisheriesPacificArcticwatersnorthoftheSewardPeninsulaarecurrentlyatlowriskduelargelytoalackofdependenceonthesefoodsources

3)Lower)Trophic)Level)Communities)signals)from)direct)and)indirect)sampling

ThepredominantconceptualmodelframinghowmarineecosystemsinthePacificArctic respondtoreducedseaiceisbasedonchangesanticipatedfromashiftinpelagic0benthic coupling(Fig4)

Figure)4))Generalized)conceptual)model)depicting)the)influence)of)sea)ice)on)pelagicVbenthic)coupling)on) Pacific)Arctic)continental)shelves)

24

OnthebroadshelvesthatcomprisemuchofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemnewprimaryproductionfromsea0icealgaeandphytoplanktonbloomsfallstotheseafloortosupportrich benthiccommunities(Grebmeier2012)Asseaicethinsandretreatsearlierintheseasonitisanticipatedthatearlierandlargerphytoplanktonbloomswillswitchfromabenthic0 dominatedtoapelagic0dominatedmarineecosystemThisshiftwillcascadethroughthesystemsupportingnovelcommunitiesofsecondaryandtertiaryconsumers(zooplanktonandforagefishes)anduppertrophiclevelmarinebirdsandmammalsIndeedGrebmeieret al(2006)suggestedthatthistypeofecosystemshiftisalreadyunderwayinthemarinecommunitiesofthenorthernBeringSeaThePacificArcticisoftendescribedasabenthic0 dominatedmarineecosystemonethatdoesnotsupportalargebiomassorspeciesdiversityoffishesAdescriptionofconditionsthathavefosteredexistingbenthichotspotsoffersa solidfoundationforassessingfuturechangeswhileanaccountingoftheexistingcommunitiesofmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsprovidesastartingpointuponwhichtobuildalong0termrecord)

31Benthichotspotsandmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitats

ArecordofextantconditionsiskeytointerpretingmarineecosystemresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingnowevidentinthePacificArcticSucharecordexistsforfourbenthic lsquohotspotrsquocommunitiesinthenorthernBeringandChukchiseas(Grebmeieretal2015a)but notformarinefishesLong0termsamplingofbenthicmacrofaunalcommunitiesindicatesthatthebenthichotspotshavemaintainedconsistentlyhighbiomassforuptofourdecadesdueto reoccurrenceofseasonallyreliablemoderate0to0highwatercolumnproductioncoupledwithexportofcarbonfromoverlyingwaterstotheseafloorUppertrophiclevelbenthivorestargetpreyaggregationsineachofthehotspotsOverallbottom0upforcingbyhydrography andfoodsupplytothebenthosinfluencespersistenceandcompositionofbenthicpreywhichinturninfluencestheuppertrophiclevelspeciescompositionandseasonaloccurrence Whenconsistentlysampledintandemthesebenthos0benthivoreconnectionscanfacilitate useofUTLspeciesassentinelsofshiftsinpreycompositionandabundance(Mooreetal2014)

Sincethe2000stherehavebeenahostofArcticmarinefishsurveysintheChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasprecipitatedbybothscientificinterestintheimpactsofclimatechangeandcommercialinterestinoilandgasdevelopment(Logerwelletal2015)Resultsfrom thesesurveysprovideanovelopportunitytocompareArcticfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsrangingfromlagoonsandbeachestobenthicandpelagiccontinental shelfwatersAsynthesisofdatafromthesesurveysrevealedmoresimilaritiesthandifferencesinhabitatusebetweenthetwoseasForexamplenearshorehabitatisusedbyallageclassesofforagefishesandisalsoanurseryareaforotherspeciesinboththeChukchiand westernBeaufortseasNotablysomecommercialspeciesmaybeexpandingtheirrangenorthtothesewatersincludingchinooksalmon(Oncorhynchustshawytscha)walleyepollock (Gaduschalcogrammus)andflatfishes(Pleuronectidae)Inadditionasynthesisofinformationonrelativeabundanceandageofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)andsaffroncod

25

(Eleginusgracilis)bothkeypreyspeciesinArcticfoodwebssupportedthedevelopmentoflifehistoryanddistributionmodelsthatwillinformfutureresearchontrophicdynamicsin thePacificArcticsector

32Inferencesofmarineecosystemshiftsfromsealsseabirdsandseaducks

Additionalinformationregardingtheimpactoflsquonewnormalrsquobiophysicalconditionsonlowertrophiclevelspeciescanbeinferredfromshiftsinthedietandbodyconditionofmarine mammalsandbirdsCrawfordetal(2015)comparedthedietandconditionofringedseals(Pusahispida)andbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)harvestedintheAlaskanBeringand Chukchiseasduringhistorical(197501984)andrecent(200302012)periodsTheyfoundthe proportionoffishinthedietofbothspeciesincreasedintherecentreduced0iceperiodcomparedtothehistoricalperiodInadditionringedsealsgrewfasterhadthickerblubber andmaturedtwoyearsearlierBeardedsealshadthickerblubberintherecentperiodbut didnotmanifesttheotherchangesreportedfortheringedsealsAlthoughanumberofthe comparisonswerenotstatisticallysignificanttakentogethertheseobservationssuggestgreaterfishavailabilityintheAlaskanBering0Chukchimarineecosystemsupportinggood bodyconditionintheseals

AsinthesealpaperDivokyetal(2015)parsedalong0termdatasetintorecent(200302012)andhistorical(197501984)periodstocompareoceanographicconditionsnestlingdietandfledgingsuccessatablackguillemot(Cepphusgryllemandtii)breedingcolonyinthewestern BeaufortSeaFrom15Julyto1Septemberseaiceretreatedanaverageof18kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof958kmfromthecolonyduringthehistoricalperiodwhileinthe recentperiodiceretreataveraged98kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof5069kmSeasurfacetemperaturenearthecolonyincreasedby29⁰CbetweenthetwoperiodsWhileArcticcodcomprisedover95ofthepreyprovidedtonestlingsinthehistoricalperiodthis proportiondecreasedtolt5ofthenestlingdietduringmostyearsintherecentperiodwhendemersalsculpin(Cottidae)comprisedthemajorityofthedietTheshiftawayfrom Arcticcodwasassociatedwithafive0foldincreaseintherateofnestlingstarvationand reductionsinnestlinggrowthandfledgingmassConverselyannualadultsurvivalduringthe nonbreedingseason(September0May)showednosignificantdifferencebetweenthetwo periodssuggestingnochangeintheavailabilityofArcticcodorinoverallpreyavailabilityto blackguillemotsintheirBeringSeawinteringarea

IncontrasttoarelianceonpelagicpreyLovvornetal(2015)investigatedpotentialclimate0 relatedlimitstobenthicfeedingbyseaducksalongtheirmigrationcorridorinthenortheasternChukchiSeaKingeiders(Somateriaspectabilis)primarilyeatclams(bivalves) duringmigrationandrecentsamplinghasshownthatdenseclamassemblagesoccuronlyinspecificlocationsalongthemigrationcorridorSeaicecanpreventeidersfromreachingtheseprimefeedingsiteswithsatellitedataforApril‒May(2001‒2013)showingthataccess canvaryfrom0‒100InawarmingandincreasinglyvariableclimateaccesstobenthicfeedingsitesmaybefurthererodedbytheeffectsofwindsonunconsolidatediceThese

26

resultsunderscoretheimportanceofmaintainingarangeofbenthicfeedingareasthroughoutthemigrationcorridortoensurepreyavailabilitytotheeiderseachyear)

4)Upper)Trophic)Level)Species)marine)birds)and)mammals)as)ecosystem)sentinels

Astoppredatorsmarinebirdsandmammalsmustadapttochangesintheirhabitatsresultingfromphysicalforcingandtherebycanserveassentinelstoecosystemshifts(Mooreetal2014MooreandGulland2014)ResponsesofUTLspeciestoalteredhabitatscanbe categorizedasextrinsicincludingshiftsinrangemigratorytiming(phenology)orregionsofhighabundance(hotspots)orintrinsicincludingchangesindietbodyconditionand chemicalcomposition(Fig5)

Figure)5)Marine)birds)and)mammals)are)upper)trophic)level)(UTL))species)that)reflect)ecosystem) alterations)by)changes)in)habitat)use)(extrinsic))and)body)condition)(intrinsic))revealing)fundamental) changes)in)marine)ecosystems)

Responsesareinter0relatedsuchthatashiftinrangephenologyoruseofhotspotswillbe reflectedinchangesindietbodyconditionandchemistryItisthisconnectionthatallowsus

27

todetectecosystemreorganizationbytrackingchangesintheecologyandphysiologyofUTL speciesAlthoughtherehavebeennocoordinatedlong0termstudiesofUTLspeciesinthe PacificArcticexaminingthisconnectionasynthesisofinformationfromvisualsurveyssatellitetaggingofindividualsandyear0roundacousticdetectionsprovidesanecological foundationthatcanprovideabaselinetoinformfutureinvestigations

41Seasonaloccurrencehotspothabitatsandacousticecology

Kuletzetal(2015)depictspatialpatternsofrelativeabundanceofseabirdsandmarinemammalsinsummerandfallderivedfromsixyearsofvisualsurveysintheeasternChukchi andwesternBeaufortseasUsingstatisticalspatialanalysistoolshotspotsforseabirdswalrusandgraywhaleswereidentifiedintheChukchiSeawhilehotspotsforbowheadwhalesandsealsweredescribednearBarrowCanyonandalongtheBeaufortSeashelfand slopeHotspotsforbelugasoccurredinboththeChukchiandBeaufortseasInsummerthreehotspotsweresharedbybothseabirdsandmarinemammalsintheChukchiSeawaters offshoreWainwrightsouthofHannaShoalandatthemouthofBarrowCanyonOnlytheBarrowCanyonhotspotwasoccupiedthroughthefallSharedhotspotswerecharacterized bystrongfrontscausedbyupwellingandcurrentswhichcanservetoaggregatepreyUsingadifferentapproachCittaetal(2015)providedetailedanalysisoftheseasonalmovementsandhabitatusebyasinglespeciesthroughoutoneyearLocationsfrom54bowheadwhales (Balaenamysticetus)obtainedbysatellitetelemetryfrom200602012wereusedtoidentifya totalofsixcore0useareasintheBeaufort(3)Chukchi(1)andnorthernBering(2)seas Takentogetherthetimingofuse(phenology)andphysicalcharacteristics(oceanographyseaiceandwinds)associatedwitheachareadescribeaseasonalcircuitbythewhalesthroughareasthoughttosupportelevatedpreydensities

Passiveacousticsamplinghasbecomeacommonyear0roundtooltodetectcallingmarine mammalsinarcticseas(Mooreetal2006Staffordetal2012)Since2007therehasbeenanespeciallystrongsamplingeffortassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationinthenortheast ChukchiandwesternBeaufortseas(egHannayetal2013 httpwwwafscnoaagovnmmlcetaceanchaozphp)Theserecorderdeployments augmentalong0standingacousticstudyinthecentralBeaufortSea(Blackwelletal2007)andmorerecentdeploymentsintheBeringStraitregion(KStaffordperscomm)HeretoforeresearchersconductedeachofthesestudiesindependentlyofoneanotherClark etal(2015)presentsanovelsynthesisofthecombinedoutputfromsixresearcheffortsusingfourtypesofrecordersandavarietyofsub0samplingandanalysisschemestodescribean lsquoacousticyearrsquointhelifeofthebowheadwhaleDetectionsofbowheadcallsfrom20sitesextendingover2300kmfromthenorthernBeringSeatothesoutheastBeaufortSeawere combinedovera140monthperiod(200902010)todescribewhaleoccurrenceacrosstheir rangeThespatialandtemporalvariabilityinsoundlevelswithinthefrequencybandofbowheadwhaleswasalsoquantifiedThelowestunderwatersoundlevelsoccurredfromlate NovemberuntilMayintheChukchiSeaDuringwinter200902010singingbowheadwhaleselevatedbroadbandsoundlevelsforroughly38daysinthenorthernBeringSeafollowedby

28

asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

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ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

31

Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

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(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Moore

TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

Mathis

UsinganEnvironmentalIntelligenceFrameworktoEvaluatetheImpactsof

OceanAcidificationintheArctic

ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

26(Jan(2017(

Moore

The

Arc

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

24(Jan(2017(

VanPelt

Synt

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

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22(Apr(2017(

Moore

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 8: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

another30years(WangandOverland2009)Thereductioninsea0iceareaopensupvastnew regionsoftheArcticOceantoincreasedabsorptionofsunlightandstorageofheatThisheat isreturnedtotheatmosphereinthefollowingautumnresultinginincreasedArctic temperaturesofmorethan5degCextendingthesea0icefreeseasonthroughNovemberandcausingchangesinwindpatternsThesephysicalchangestotheArcticsystemappeartobe irreversible

Marinemammalsrespondtochangesinseaiceaccordingtotheirdependencyonitforvitallifefunctions(MooreandHuntington2008Kovacsetal2010)InthePARthedramaticchangesinseasonalsea0iceextentandtypeappeartohaveprecipitatedchangesinmarine mammalmigrationandfeedingpatternsForexamplelargeaggregationsofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)feedroutinelynearBarrowfromlatesummerthroughautumna phenomenonpreviouslyconsideredlsquosporadicrsquo(Mooreetal2010)Graywhales(Eschrichtius robustus)consideredatemperatespeciescommonlyfeednearthebowheadwhaleswhereas thetwospeciesappearedtobespatiallyandtemporallysegregatedintheearly1980s(Mooreetal1986)

Inadditiontothechangesinmarinemammalecologyanorthwardshiftofsomefishspecies(egSpencer2008MueterandLitzow2008RandandLogerwell2010)andtheprevalenceof euphausiids(Thysanoessaspp)indicatedthatthetrophicstructureofthePARischangingEuphausiidsareimportantpreyforbowheadandgraywhales(Ashjianetal2010Bluhmet al2007)andpossiblyalsoforicesealsEuphausiidsarethoughttobetransportedintothe PARfromthenorthernBeringSeaasreproductionhasneverbeenobservedinwatersnorthofBeringStrait(Berlineetal2008)Coupledtothisisthegeneraldearthofinformationon distributionandabundanceofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)inthePARaspeciesconsideredessentialintheshorttrophicfoodwebscommontopolarmarineecosystems(Ainleyand DeMaster1990)Examinationandsynthesisofhownaturalandhuman0associated environmentalvariabilityimpactsmarinemammalsrequiresinvestigationofthebiophysical changestotrophicstructureanddynamicsoftheirfishandinvertebrateprey

During200502015BOEMmadeextensiveinvestmentsinmarinemammalandrelated oceanographicstudiesintheeasternhalfofthePAR(ietheInternationalDateLineeastto theCanadianBeaufort)Datafromthosestudieswillconsiderablyaugmentthebodyof knowledgefortheregionbutinterpretationwouldbeconstrainedifresultsarenot integratedwithotherresearcheffortsAddressingthisintegrationwasthegenesisofthe SOARprojecttoundertakesynthesisofresearchfromongoingBOEMstudiesinthePARwhichincludebutarenotlimitedtothefollowing

bull BowheadWhaleFeedingVariabilityintheWesternAlaskanBeaufortSeaSatelliteTrackingofBowheadWhaleMovementsFeedingampOceanography

bull PassiveAcousticDetectionandMonitoringofEndangeredWhalesintheArctic

8

bull EcosystemObservationsintheChukchiSeaBiophysicalMooringandClimateModeling

bull ChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea(COMIDA)ChemistryandBenthos

bull DistributionandRelativeAbundanceofMarineMammalsCOMIDAAerialSurveys

bull HannaShoalEcosystemStudy

bull MonitoringtheDistributionofArcticWhales(alsoknownasBWASP)

bull WalrusHabitatUseinthePotentialDrillingArea

bull PinnipedMovementsandForagingBeardedSeals

bull AssessingReproductionandBodyConditionoftheRingedSealnearSachsHarbourNorthwestTerritoryCanadathroughaHarvest0basedSamplingProgram

bull ArcticmarineresearchstudiessupportedthroughNationalOceanPartnership Program(NOPP)towhichBOEMcontributes

bull StudiesconductedbytheAlaskaDepartmentofFishandGame(ADFampG)andtheNorthSlopeBorough(NSB)underBOEMrsquosCoastalImpactAssistanceProgram(CIAP)

Dataandresultsfromrelated(butnotBOEM0funded)studiesthatalsocontributetotheSOAR includebutarenotlimitedtothefollowing

bull NOAArsquosRUSALCAprogram(USA0RussiabilateralstudyoftheChukchiSea)

bull StudiessupportedbyNSFOfficeofPolarPrograms

bull StudiessupportedbytheLandscapeConservationCooperativeNetwork

bull StudiessupportedbytheAlaskaDepartmentofFishampGametheUSGeologicalSurveyandbytheUSFishampWildlifeService

bull Studiessupportedbyoilandgasindustry(egShellConocoPhillipsStatOilBritishPetroleum)relatedtomitigationandmonitoringofeffectsofoffshoreexplorationanddevelopmentonmarinemammalsandtheirenvironmentegtheChukchiSea EnvironmentalStudiesProgram(CSESP)

)

)

)

9

OBJECTIVES)AND)METHODS)

)

OBJECTIVES

)

TheSOARprojectfocusedonthreeobjectives

1 Increasescientificunderstandingoftheinter0andintra0relationshipsofoceanographicconditionsbenthicorganismslowertrophicpreyspecies(foragefishand zooplankton)andmarinemammaldistributionandbehaviorinthePARwithparticularemphasisontheChukchiSealeaseareas

2 Enhancecapabilitytopredictchangesinoceanographicfeaturessuchascurrents upwellingandiceleadsandassociatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARwithparticularemphasisonthenortheasternChukchiSea

3 EffectivelytransmitfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

)

METHODS

TASKFRAMEWORK

TheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojectwastouseavailableanalyticalandmodelingapproachestoidentifyandtesthypothesesthatcrossscientificdisciplinesSOARprovidesa frameworktosupportasynthesisofscientificinformationdrawnfromcompletedandongoingmarineresearchinthePacificArcticregionTheframeworkconsistsofsixtasks

1 establishaScienceSteeringCommitteetoprovideleadershipandoversightforthe synthesisproject

2 conductaSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)WorkshopinvolvingPIsfromall relevantresearchprogramsto

i identifyanddevelopsciencesynthesisthemesii detailrequireddataandanalysesforeachtheme iii formAnalyticalTeamstosupporttheworkofeachsynthesisthemeiv listanticipatedworkproducts(iepeer0reviewedpapersandpresentations)

and

10

v deriveameanstoarchivedataandmeta0datausedinsupportofthesynthesis 3 supportAnalyticalTeamdataintegrationandanalysisincludingtheme0based

meetingsasneeded 4 trackprogressofanalyticalworkviabi0monthlyteleconferencesandannualSCCAT0

updateworkshops 5 producescienceproductsincludingpresentationsatprofessionalmeetingsand

publicationofpeer0reviewedpapersasaSpecialIssueamporThemeSectionsinanappropriatescientificjournaland

6 communicatesynthesisapproachandfindingstolocalArcticresidentsresourcemanagersnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

TASKDETAIL

TASK)1)))ESTABLISH)AND)CONVENE)SCIENTIFIC)STEERING)COMMITTEE)

LeadershipandguidanceofthesynthesisprojectwasprovidedbyaScienceSteeringCommittee(SSC)formedofseniorscientistswithdecades0longexperienceinthePacific ArcticAttheinitialSSCmeetingthegroupidentifiedrelevantprojectsdeveloped provisionalsciencethemesandidentifiedpotentialparticipantsandleadersfor interdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeamsformedatthesubsequentSOARWorkshop

TASK)2)))PLAN)AND)CONDUCT)SOAR)WORKSHOP)

Amulti0disciplinarySOARWorkshopwasthekeystoneinitialproductofSOARWorkshop participantsinventoriedavailabledataandevaluateditssufficiencytoaddressspecificcross0 disciplinaryhypothesesandquestionsprovisionallyidentifiedassciencethemesbytheSSCTheprovisionallistofthemeswasmodifiedandnewthemesemergedattheworkshopOnce sciencethemeswereagreeduponinterdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeams(AT)wereformedto conductthecoreworkoftheSOARprojectInterdisciplinaryATstheninitiatedthe developmentofshortproposalstosupporttheworkrequiredfordataintegrationanalyses andormodeling

TASK)3))SUPPORT)DATA)INTEGRATION)ANALYSIS)AND)MODELING

Inresponsetoproposalsdetailingtheworktobeperformedtimelineandproducts anticipatedmdashandincoordinationwithSSCreviewmdashfundingwasprovidedviacontractfor selectedATstointegratedataconductanalysesrunmodelsandordeveloppublicationsInsomecasesdirectfundingwasnotneededandin0kindsupportwasprovidedintheformofreviewcoordinationandpublicationfacilitationAsubsetofATsintegratedtheirworkwith

11

on0goingoceanographicprograms(egRUSALCAandtheDistributedBiologicalObservatory[DBO])andinsomecasestheATsconductedfollow0ontheme0basedmeetingsorintegrativeworkshopsasthebestmeanstoaccomplishdataintegrationandsynthesisontheirtopic OtherATschosetointegratetheirworkviavideoorteleconferenceswiththebulkofcontract fundinggoingtowardssupportforagraduatestudentpost0docorotherresearcherto accomplishthesynthesistasksidentified)

TASK)4))TRACK)PROGRESS)OF)ANALYTICAL)WORK)

ATleadshadprimaryresponsibilityfortrackingtheprogressofworkontheirsciencethemeandmembersoftheSSCwerealsoaskedtofollowtheprogressoftheworktowardsuseful productsTrackingtooktheformofcontactatregularintervals(egbimonthly)viae0mailorphonesolicitingspecificinformationonproblemsencounteredandadherencetotimelineforproductcompletionSummariesofprogressoneachthemeappearedinQuarterlyReportsto theBOEM

TASK)5))SCIENCE)PRODUCTS))

ThecoreproductoftheSOARprojectwasaseriesofsciencepresentationsandpeer0reviewedpapersdescribingcurrentandprojectedstatusofthePARmarineecosystemAnnual presentationsontheapproachandprogressoftheSOARwereprovidedatplenarysessionsof theAlaskaMarineScienceSymposiumandadditionalpresentationsweremadeatother sciencevenuessuchastheAGUOceanSciencesmeetingSciencepaperswerethenpublishedinspecialissuesofpeer0reviewedjournalswiththeprojectPIsandcoordinatorservingas GuestEditors

TASK)6))COMMUNICATION)OF)SYNTHESIS)APPROACH)amp)PRODUCTS)

Inadditiontosciencepapersandpresentationsresultsofthesyntheseswereprovidedto communitiesinelectronicandhardcopyformatandopportunitiestospeakwithArcticresidentsweresoughtatco0managementmeetingsandotherforaAwebsitewasdeveloped providinggraphicsandbriefsummariesforgeneraluseandlinkingtootherrelevantsitesResultsofthesynthesiswerecommunicatedtovariousnationalandinternationalArctic Programs(egNOAAArcticReportCardSEARCHISACPAGIASCandArcticCouncilWorkingGroups)

12

SOARPHASE1ANDSOARPHASE2

Task5(ScienceProducts)wasoriginallyenvisagedtoresultinaspecialvolumeofpeer0reviewedpaperspossiblysupplementedbyanadditionalsmallersetofpapersinatheme sectionorothersimilaroutletHoweverfollowingcompletionofthefirstphaseofSOARculminatinginthe2015specialissueofProgressinOceanography(MooreandStabeno2015 seeResultssectionbelowformoreinformation)therewasahighlevelofinterestinextendingSOARtoincludeadditionalsynthesisThereforethesecondphaseofSOARwas developedbuildingfromaninformalmid0projectworkshopandresultinginasecondfullspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchIIFurtherdetailisprovidedinthefollowingsections

RESULTS)

FOUNDATIONALTASKSSCIENCESTEERINGCOMMITTEEANDWORKSHOP

THESOARSCIENCESTEERINGCOMMITTEE

AScienceSteeringCommittee(SCC)comprisedofscientistsandAlaskancoastalcommunityrepresentativeswasestablished(Table1)ThefirstoffiveannualSSCmeetingswasheldfrom103November2011attheWatertownHotelinSeattleWATheSSCidentifiedrelevantprojects anddatasourcesdevelopedthreedraftsciencethemesandrelatedquestionsandidentified potentialparticipantsandleadersforassociatedinterdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeamsthatwould beformedatSOARScienceWorkshopMultiplesubsequentmeetingsfurtherdevelopedthe sciencethemesandprovidedguidanceforSOARtasks(Table2)

)

Table)1))List)of)Science)Steering)Committee)members)and)institutions)

ScienceSteeringCommitteeMember

Affiliation Location

RobynAngliss NOAANationalMarineMammalLaboratory

SeattleWA

CarinAshjian WoodsHoleOceanographic Institution

WoodsHoleMA

ChristopherClark CornellUniversity IthacaNY

13

JacquelineGrebmeier UniversityofMarylandCenterforEnvironmental Studies

SolomonsMD

CraigGeorge NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EskimoWhaling

ComissionKawerak NomeAK

SueMoore NOAANMFS SeattleWA ChadJay USGeologicalSurvey AnchorageAK TimRagan MarineMammalCommission WashingtonDC PhyllisStabeno NOAAPMEL SeattleWA RobertSuydam NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK TomWeingartner UniversityofAlaska0

Fairbanks FairbanksAK

)

Table)2)List)of)SOAR)SSC)Teleconferences)and)inVperson)meetings)

SOAR)SSC)Meeting) SSCTeleconference1

Date) 21September2011

SSCTeleconference2 18October2011 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingSeattleWA 11November2011 SSCTeleconference3 16February2012 SSCTeleconference4 6April2012 SOARMarchWorkshop 14016March2012 SSCTeleconference5 6July2012 SSCTeleconference6 6October2012 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 21January2013 SSCTeleconference7) 9April2013 SSCTeleconference8) 14November2013 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 20January2014 SSCTeleconference9) 12January2015 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 23January2015 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK(informal)) 26January2016

SOARWORKSHOPndashMARCH2012

TheSOARScienceWorkshopwasheldfrom14016March2012attheEganCenterinAnchorageAlaskaTheSOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandProjectCoordinatorallmembersoftheScienceSteeringCommitteeand42ofthe43invitedSOARContributorsattendedthe

14

workshopDraftScienceThemesandQuestionsdevelopedbytheSOARScienceSteeringCommitteewereprovidedtoparticipantsinadvanceoftheworkshopsummarizedas(i)EcosystemResponsetoBottom0upandorTop0downForcing(ii)MarineBirdsMammalsandFishasEcosystemSentinelsand(iii)AcousticEcology

TheprimarygoalsoftheScienceWorkshopwereto(1)refinetheDraftScienceThemesandQuestions(2)formresearchteamstoundertakeanalysisinsupportofdevelopmentofpeer0reviewedpapersand(3)developshortproposalstoidentifyprojectmilestonesandfinancialsupportrequiredtocompletesyntheticprojects

DayoneoftheworkshopconsistedofdisciplinarytalksinplenarysessiontoprovideallparticipantswiththecurrentstateofknowledgeineachareaofstudyDuringdaytwooftheworkshopsciencethemeswererevisedtoreflectgroupinputParticipantsdividedintothree theme0basedbreakoutgroupsandbegandevelopingsciencequestionstoproposeforSOARDaythreeoftheworkshopbeganwithaplenarysummaryofthepreviousdayrsquosprogress followedbybreakoutgroupstowriteandsubmitone0pageproposalsfortheprojects requestingfundingOntheafternoonofthethirddayanopen0sessionwasheldto communicateworkshopprogresstoBOEMscientistsandmanagerscolleaguesfromtheNorthPacificResearchBoardandAlaskaOceanObservingSystemindustryrepresentativesand otherinterestedpartiesFurtherdetailsoftheSOARWorkshopcanbefoundintheSOAR WorkshopReport(SheffieldGuyetal2012a)andseealsoSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)

15

SCIENCEPRODUCTANDCOMMUNICATIONTASKS

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE1 FollowingtheinitialSOARthemeselectionsandteamdevelopmentandincorporatinganextensivepeer0reviewphaseledbytheprojectPIsandcoordinatorthefirstphaseofthe SOARprojectculminatedinaspecialvolumeofProgressinOceanographypublishedinAugust 2015(Fig2Table3)Thisspecialissueincluded16fullpapersplusanintroductionpaper authoredbythetwoprojectPIs

Figure)2)Cover)of)the)first)SOAR)special) volume)published)in)Progress)in)

Oceanography)in)2015)

16

Table)3))Papers)included)in)the)2015)SOAR)special)issue)of)Progress)in)Oceanography)

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsofthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011 WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressinOceanography13612031 FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015Divergentpatternsofrecent seaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049 WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059 ArrigoKRvanDijkenGL2015ContinuedincreasesinArcticOceanprimaryproductionProgressinOceanography13660070 MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJNFeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091 GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarkeJTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSHLovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015EcosystemcharacteristicsandprocessesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114 LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132 CrawfordJAQuakenbushLTCittaJJ2015Acomparisonofringedandbeardedsealdietconditionandproductivitybetweenhistorical(1975ndash1984)andrecent(2003ndash2012)periodsintheAlaskanBeringandChukchiseasProgressinOceanography1361330150 DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarctic seaiceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161 LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015LimitstobenthicfeedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchangingseaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174 KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015SeasonalspatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareas ProgressinOceanography1361750200 CittaJJQuakenbushLTOkkonenSRDruckenmillerMLMaslowskiWClement0KinneyJGeorgeJCBrowerHSmallRJAshjianCJHarwoodLAHeide0Joslashrgensen MP2015Ecologicalcharacteristicsofcore0useareasusedbyBeringndashChukchindashBeaufort(BCB)bowheadwhales2006ndash2012ProgressinOceanography1362010222

17

ClarkCWBerchokCLBlackwellSBHannayDEJonesJPonirakisDStafford KM2015AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasProgressinOceanography1362230240 MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationshipbetweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249 GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgressinOceanography1362500262 HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015ChangeintheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE2

Followingthe2015publicationofthefirstSOARspecialissueinProgressinOceanography theSOARprojectSSCandparticipantsdecidedtopursuecoordinatethepublicationofasetofpapersinfullsecondspecialissueThosePhase2topicsandpaperleadswerediscussedat theannualSOARSSCmeetinginJanuary2015Baseduponsuggestionsatthismeeting102pageproposalswererequestedfromsuggestedpaperleadsandproposalswerethen subsequentlydevelopedintopublishedpapersThemajorityofpapersforthesecondspecial issuewerecompletedandinpressbytheendof2017(Table4)withfinalpublicationofthe completespecialissueinDeepSeaResearchIIndashTopicalStudiesinOceanographyexpectedby latesummer2018

Table)4))Papers)to)appear)in)the)SOAR)2nd)Phase)special)issue)published)in)Deep)Sea)Research)Part)II)

Corresponding) Author Manuscript)Title

SueMoore IntroductionTheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)Project

MuyinWang SeaiceandoceancharacteristicsintheChukchiSeabyselectedCMIP5modelsthepresentandthefuture

NicholasBond DiagnosisofphysicaloceanographiceventsintheChukchiSea usinganoceanreanalysis

VictoriaHill DecadaltrendsinphytoplanktonproductioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

18

JessicaCross FormationandtransportofcorrosivewaterinthePacificArcticRegion

LeeCooper DepositionpatternsontheChukchiShelfusingradionuclide inventoriesinrelationtosurfacesedimentcharacteristics

Matthew Druckenmiller

Trendsinsea0icecoverandupwellingpotentialwithinBowheadwhaleuseareasintheWesternArctic

KateStafford AcousticecologyofbowheadandbelugawhalesincoreuseareasintheBeaufortandChukchiSeas

JohnCitta Oceanographiccharacteristicsassociatedwithbowheadwhale movementsintheChukchiSea

JohnCitta SeasonaldistributionandoverlapofmarinemammalsintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseas

KimberlyRand UsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

ElizabethLogerwell Environmentaldriversofbenthicfishdistributioninandaround BarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwesternBeaufortSea

KathleenStafford BelugawhalesintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaasynthesisofavailableinformationontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StephenOkkonen Relationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskanBeaufortSea

MartinRobards UnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesintheAlaskanArcticPlace0basedcollaborationswithAlaskaNative communities

SueMoore TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)ModellinkingtemporalprocessestocontiguousdomainsinthePacificArctic

19

PRESENTATIONSANDPOSTERSATSCIENTIFICMEETINGS

SOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandcontributorsmademorethan50presentationsincludinginformationaboutthissynthesiseffortatavarietyofscientificmeetingsworkshopsandwebinarsAfulllistofthesepresentationsisprovidedinAppendixC

OTHERCOMMUNICATIONOFSYNTHESISAPPROACHANDPRODUCTS

TheSynthesisofArcticResearchwebsitelocatedathttpswwwpmelnoaagovsoar providesbackgroundinformationandup0to0datescienceproductinformationtostakeholders andthegeneralpublicThewebsitewillcontinuetobeliveandhostedbyNOAA

Severalpeer0reviewedpaperswerepublishedthatalsoappealtoamoregeneralortrans0 disciplineaudienceincludingSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)andSheffieldGuyetal(2016)SOARsynthesisresultswerefeaturedinnumerousnewspapersonlinefeaturesmagazines andmore

SYNTHESIS)SUMMARY)AND)DISCUSSION)

SOARPHASEI

ThefirstphaseofSOARresultedinfifteenpaperspublishedinaspecialissueofProgressin Oceanographyin2015(Table3)HereweprovideabroadoverviewanddiscussionofthepapersinthatspecialissuedrawnfromtheIntroductiontothatissue(MooreandStabeno 2015)

1 Introduction)

TheinitiationoftheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)projectcoincidedwiththerecognitionthatbiophysicalchangesinthePacificArcticregionweresoextremecomparedtotherecentpastthattheyacquiredthemonikerlsquonewnormalrsquo(Jeffriesetal2013) ConsequentlydescribingthebiophysicalpropertiesofthelsquonewlsquoPacificArcticmarineecosystemwasfoundationaltotheSOAReffortandthefocusoffivepapersinthefirstspecial issueExaminingbiologicalresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingthenbecamethetaskofresearchersfocusedonthestudyoflowertrophiclevel(LTL)communitiesanduppertrophiclevel(UTL)speciesTwopapersprovideintegratedresultsfromdirectsamplingofbenthic andfishcommunitieswhilethreepapersreportonchangesinLTLspeciesoccurrenceinferredbyshiftsinthedietsofsealsandmarinebirdsSixpapersfocusonUTLspecieswith fourpresentinginformationonseasonaloccurrenceinhotspotorcore0usehabitatsandtwo describingvariabilityinmarinemammalbodyconditioninthecontextofdecadal0scale

20

environmentalvariabilityTogetherthesepapersprovideasyntheticcontexttofocushypothesesunderpinningthenextdecadeofresearchinthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

2)Biophysics)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

ThePacificArcticmarineecosystemiscomprisedofinflowshelves(northernBeringandChukchiseas)coupledtointeriorshelves(EastSiberianandBeaufortseas)withthe contrastingbiophysicsofthesedomainssummarizedinCarmacketal(2006)Circulationon bothinflowandinteriorshelvesislinkedtopan0arcticteleconnectionmechanisms(egArcticOscillation)withinteriorshelvesalsostronglyinfluencedbytheseasonaloutflowof relativelywarmfreshwaterfromarcticriversEvaluatingecosystemstatusandtrendsinthePacificArcticwasthefocusofarecentbookwith10(of12)chaptersdevotedtoobservationsandmodelingoftheatmosphereoceanphysicsandchemistry(GrebmeierandMaslowski 2014)Thepapersinthefirstspecialissueaddtothatbodyofknowledgeespeciallywithregardtobiologicalresponsestobiophysicaldriversandinthiswaycontributetoamore holisticunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

21)PhysicalobservationsandopenwaterprojectionsinthelsquonewnormalrsquoPacificArctic

Recentobservations(200302013)ofenvironmentalchangesinthePacificArcticsupportthecontentionthatanewnormalclimateisemerging(Fig3Jeffriesetal2013Woodetal 2015)

Figure)3))Highlights)of)recent)biophysical)changes)in)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

21

Theiconicindicatorofthischangeisthedramaticsummertimelossofseaice(50byarea75byvolume)whichinsomeyears(eg2012)hasresultedinnearlyice0freeconditionsin theregionSpecificallysatellitedatafrom197902012reveallocalizedchangesinsea0ice occurrenceofupto0164daysyearintheCanadaBasinand0124daysyearintheBeaufort Seawhichacceleratedto0657daysyear(CanadaBasin)and01284daysyear(Beaufort Sea)duringthe200002012period(Freyetal2015)Multiyearseaicehasalmostentirelydisappearedwithinter0annualvariabilityiniceconcentrationlargelydrivenbywindforcing intheBeaufortSeaIntheCanadaBasindifferencesinannualseaiceareprimarilythermallydrivenwhilesea0iceextentisinfluencedbybothwindsandheatontheBeringSeashelf

Thesummeratmosphericpatternsinfluenceoceancirculationfreshwaterpathwaysand movementandmeltingofseaiceDuringthelastdecadetheintensificationoftheBeaufortHigh(OgiandWallace2012)resultedinanomaloussummerwindsTheseanomalouswinds togetherwiththelossofmulti0yeariceweretheprimaryfactorsthattransformedtheChukchiandnorthernBeaufortseasintoanopenwaterenvironment(Woodetal2015)InparticulartheeasternBeaufortSeaappearstobeparticularlysusceptibletoanomalouswindsthrough theireffectontheadvectionofwarmfreshwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumeInadditiontransportanomaliesintheBeringStraitaredeterminedbycompetinglarge0scale atmosphericpatternstheBeaufortHighandAleutianLow(Danielsonetal2014)NotablychangesinBeringStraitflowthroughcanimpacttheworldclimatefarbeyondtheBeringStraitandArcticregion(egHuetal2015)

Freyetal(2015)investigatetheinfluenceofthePacificDecadalOscillation(PDO)andtheArcticOscillation(AO)onthepersistenceofseaiceinsummerandwinterTheyfoundsignificantnegativecorrelationsbetweenseaiceonthesoutheasternBeringSeashelfandthe PDOinwinteraswellassignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweentheAOandsea0icecoverjustsouthofStLawrenceIslandSignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweenthePDOandsea iceintheCanadaBasin0CanadianArchipelagowerefoundinsummeraswellasbetweentheAOandseaiceintheChukchi0BeaufortseasThisnovelinvestigationofteleconnections betweenthePDOtheAOandsea0icecoverprovidesacriticalstepinunderstandinghow globalandregionalclimatepatternsinfluencethephysicsofthePacificArcticregion

Theunprecedentedlossofseaicehasresultedinatremendousincreaseinopen0water susceptibletorapidsolarheatingwithadditionalheatandfreshwaterprovidedbya50 increaseinPacificWaterinflowatBeringStraitfrom200102011(Woodgateetal2012 Woodetal2015)TheinfluenceofincreasedheatstoredintheChukchiandBeaufortseasis notwellunderstoodSuggestionsthatheatreleasedtotheatmosphereinlateautumnandwinterdrivesaspectsofmid0latitudeweatherremainspeculativelargelyduetotheshort timerecordavailable(Woodetal2015)FresheningoftheArcticOceanhasbeenoccurring atleastsincethe1990s(egGilesetal2012)Severalexplanationshavebeenproposed includingincreasedsea0icemeltfresherPacificWaterflowingthroughBeringStraitchanges inthemagnitudeofriverdischargeandthemeanstrengtheningoftheBeaufortHighInrecentyearsrelativelystrongeasterlywindshavebeencommonduetotheArctic0wide

22

patternofcirculationaroundanintensifiedBeaufortHighUndertheseconditionsfreshand warmwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumecanbelaterallytransportedfaroutintothe BeaufortSea(Woodetal2015)

WangandOverland(2015)comparedresultsfromtwelvecoupledclimatemodelstoproducecompositeprojectionsofthedurationofopenwaterintheChukchiandBeaufortseasat decadalintervalsfrom201002050andin2090Forwatersnorthofthe70degNopen0water durationshiftsfrom304monthsin2010toaprojected~5monthsby2040Projectedopen0 waterdurationisaboutonemonthlongeralongthesamelatitudesintheChukchiSeacomparedwiththeBeaufortSeawithuncertaintyofaboutplusmn1monthestimatedfromtherangeofmodelresultsAllmodelsprojectedopen0waterdurationtoexpandquicklyoverthe nextthreedecadeswhichwillimpactregionaleconomicaccessandpotentiallyalterecosystemsYetthePacificArcticregionwillremaincoveredwiththinfirst0yearicefrom JanuarythroughMayintothesecondhalfofthecenturyduetoseasonallackofsunlight

22Changesinprimaryproductionandoceanacidification

Thedramaticlossofsea0iceextentandvolumehasresultedinaconcomitantincreaseinlightpenetrationintheupperoceanacrosstheArcticGiventhethinningandarealreductionof seaiceafundamentalquestionariseshavethesechangesfosteredanincreaseinmarineprimaryproductionSpecificallyisthePacificArcticregionmoreproductivethanitwasthreedecadesagoIntheAtlanticArcticLeuetal(2011)measuredprimaryproductionby bothicealgaeandphytoplanktonincontrastingyears(2007008)ofsea0icecoverinaSvalbardfjordandconcludedthatearliericebreakupcorrespondedwithearlieronsetofa phytoplanktonbloomSimilarlyTremblayetal(2012)reportincreasedprimaryproductionfor2007008associatedwithextremesea0iceretreatsandincreasedupwellingatstations locatedsouthandeastofBanksIslandinthesoutheasternBeaufortSeaButcanconclusions drawnfrommeasurementssorestrictedinspaceandtimebeextrapolatedtolargerarcticregionsUsingsatelliteimageryArrigoandvanDijken(2015)investigatedchangesinseaice atbothregionalandbasinscalesfrom199802012andestimatedhowthesechangeshaveimpactedratesofnetprimaryproduction(NPP)byphytoplanktonTheyreportthatannual NPPincreased30duringthisperiodwiththelargestincreasesontheinteriorshelves (includingtheEastSiberianandBeaufort)andsmallerincreasesoninflowshelves(includingtheChukchi)OutflowshelveseitherexhibitednochangeinannualNPPoradeclineperhaps indicatingthatnutrientshadbeenconsumedfurtherupstreamIncreasedannualNPPwasoftenbutnotalwaysassociatedwithreducedsea0iceextentandresultantlonger phytoplanktongrowingseason

HumanactivitieshaveincreasedtheatmosphericCO2concentrationbyabout40sincethebeginningoftheindustrialageanditisestimatedthattheoceanhasabsorbedmorethan25

23

ofthetotalanthropogenicemissions(Mathisetal2015)TheoceanicuptakeofCO2triggersaseriesofchemicalreactionsinthesurfaceoceanthatreducespHandresultsinocean acidification(OA)InshortOAmakesseawatercorrosivetocalciumcarbonatemineralswhichmanymarineorganismsrelyonforbodystructuresHigh0latitudeoceanshave naturallylowcarbonateconcentrationssoareconsideredtobemorevulnerabletotheimpactsofOAbecauseadditionalcarbonatelossrepresentsamuchgreaterproportionalchangetothesystemInanovelstudyMathisetalprovideariskassessmentofOAimpacts tocommercialandtraditionalfisheriesfocusedonshellfishsalmonandfinfishTheresultant indexsuggeststhatwhilethenorthernBeringSeaisatmediumriskfromOAimpactsto fisheriesPacificArcticwatersnorthoftheSewardPeninsulaarecurrentlyatlowriskduelargelytoalackofdependenceonthesefoodsources

3)Lower)Trophic)Level)Communities)signals)from)direct)and)indirect)sampling

ThepredominantconceptualmodelframinghowmarineecosystemsinthePacificArctic respondtoreducedseaiceisbasedonchangesanticipatedfromashiftinpelagic0benthic coupling(Fig4)

Figure)4))Generalized)conceptual)model)depicting)the)influence)of)sea)ice)on)pelagicVbenthic)coupling)on) Pacific)Arctic)continental)shelves)

24

OnthebroadshelvesthatcomprisemuchofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemnewprimaryproductionfromsea0icealgaeandphytoplanktonbloomsfallstotheseafloortosupportrich benthiccommunities(Grebmeier2012)Asseaicethinsandretreatsearlierintheseasonitisanticipatedthatearlierandlargerphytoplanktonbloomswillswitchfromabenthic0 dominatedtoapelagic0dominatedmarineecosystemThisshiftwillcascadethroughthesystemsupportingnovelcommunitiesofsecondaryandtertiaryconsumers(zooplanktonandforagefishes)anduppertrophiclevelmarinebirdsandmammalsIndeedGrebmeieret al(2006)suggestedthatthistypeofecosystemshiftisalreadyunderwayinthemarinecommunitiesofthenorthernBeringSeaThePacificArcticisoftendescribedasabenthic0 dominatedmarineecosystemonethatdoesnotsupportalargebiomassorspeciesdiversityoffishesAdescriptionofconditionsthathavefosteredexistingbenthichotspotsoffersa solidfoundationforassessingfuturechangeswhileanaccountingoftheexistingcommunitiesofmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsprovidesastartingpointuponwhichtobuildalong0termrecord)

31Benthichotspotsandmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitats

ArecordofextantconditionsiskeytointerpretingmarineecosystemresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingnowevidentinthePacificArcticSucharecordexistsforfourbenthic lsquohotspotrsquocommunitiesinthenorthernBeringandChukchiseas(Grebmeieretal2015a)but notformarinefishesLong0termsamplingofbenthicmacrofaunalcommunitiesindicatesthatthebenthichotspotshavemaintainedconsistentlyhighbiomassforuptofourdecadesdueto reoccurrenceofseasonallyreliablemoderate0to0highwatercolumnproductioncoupledwithexportofcarbonfromoverlyingwaterstotheseafloorUppertrophiclevelbenthivorestargetpreyaggregationsineachofthehotspotsOverallbottom0upforcingbyhydrography andfoodsupplytothebenthosinfluencespersistenceandcompositionofbenthicpreywhichinturninfluencestheuppertrophiclevelspeciescompositionandseasonaloccurrence Whenconsistentlysampledintandemthesebenthos0benthivoreconnectionscanfacilitate useofUTLspeciesassentinelsofshiftsinpreycompositionandabundance(Mooreetal2014)

Sincethe2000stherehavebeenahostofArcticmarinefishsurveysintheChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasprecipitatedbybothscientificinterestintheimpactsofclimatechangeandcommercialinterestinoilandgasdevelopment(Logerwelletal2015)Resultsfrom thesesurveysprovideanovelopportunitytocompareArcticfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsrangingfromlagoonsandbeachestobenthicandpelagiccontinental shelfwatersAsynthesisofdatafromthesesurveysrevealedmoresimilaritiesthandifferencesinhabitatusebetweenthetwoseasForexamplenearshorehabitatisusedbyallageclassesofforagefishesandisalsoanurseryareaforotherspeciesinboththeChukchiand westernBeaufortseasNotablysomecommercialspeciesmaybeexpandingtheirrangenorthtothesewatersincludingchinooksalmon(Oncorhynchustshawytscha)walleyepollock (Gaduschalcogrammus)andflatfishes(Pleuronectidae)Inadditionasynthesisofinformationonrelativeabundanceandageofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)andsaffroncod

25

(Eleginusgracilis)bothkeypreyspeciesinArcticfoodwebssupportedthedevelopmentoflifehistoryanddistributionmodelsthatwillinformfutureresearchontrophicdynamicsin thePacificArcticsector

32Inferencesofmarineecosystemshiftsfromsealsseabirdsandseaducks

Additionalinformationregardingtheimpactoflsquonewnormalrsquobiophysicalconditionsonlowertrophiclevelspeciescanbeinferredfromshiftsinthedietandbodyconditionofmarine mammalsandbirdsCrawfordetal(2015)comparedthedietandconditionofringedseals(Pusahispida)andbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)harvestedintheAlaskanBeringand Chukchiseasduringhistorical(197501984)andrecent(200302012)periodsTheyfoundthe proportionoffishinthedietofbothspeciesincreasedintherecentreduced0iceperiodcomparedtothehistoricalperiodInadditionringedsealsgrewfasterhadthickerblubber andmaturedtwoyearsearlierBeardedsealshadthickerblubberintherecentperiodbut didnotmanifesttheotherchangesreportedfortheringedsealsAlthoughanumberofthe comparisonswerenotstatisticallysignificanttakentogethertheseobservationssuggestgreaterfishavailabilityintheAlaskanBering0Chukchimarineecosystemsupportinggood bodyconditionintheseals

AsinthesealpaperDivokyetal(2015)parsedalong0termdatasetintorecent(200302012)andhistorical(197501984)periodstocompareoceanographicconditionsnestlingdietandfledgingsuccessatablackguillemot(Cepphusgryllemandtii)breedingcolonyinthewestern BeaufortSeaFrom15Julyto1Septemberseaiceretreatedanaverageof18kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof958kmfromthecolonyduringthehistoricalperiodwhileinthe recentperiodiceretreataveraged98kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof5069kmSeasurfacetemperaturenearthecolonyincreasedby29⁰CbetweenthetwoperiodsWhileArcticcodcomprisedover95ofthepreyprovidedtonestlingsinthehistoricalperiodthis proportiondecreasedtolt5ofthenestlingdietduringmostyearsintherecentperiodwhendemersalsculpin(Cottidae)comprisedthemajorityofthedietTheshiftawayfrom Arcticcodwasassociatedwithafive0foldincreaseintherateofnestlingstarvationand reductionsinnestlinggrowthandfledgingmassConverselyannualadultsurvivalduringthe nonbreedingseason(September0May)showednosignificantdifferencebetweenthetwo periodssuggestingnochangeintheavailabilityofArcticcodorinoverallpreyavailabilityto blackguillemotsintheirBeringSeawinteringarea

IncontrasttoarelianceonpelagicpreyLovvornetal(2015)investigatedpotentialclimate0 relatedlimitstobenthicfeedingbyseaducksalongtheirmigrationcorridorinthenortheasternChukchiSeaKingeiders(Somateriaspectabilis)primarilyeatclams(bivalves) duringmigrationandrecentsamplinghasshownthatdenseclamassemblagesoccuronlyinspecificlocationsalongthemigrationcorridorSeaicecanpreventeidersfromreachingtheseprimefeedingsiteswithsatellitedataforApril‒May(2001‒2013)showingthataccess canvaryfrom0‒100InawarmingandincreasinglyvariableclimateaccesstobenthicfeedingsitesmaybefurthererodedbytheeffectsofwindsonunconsolidatediceThese

26

resultsunderscoretheimportanceofmaintainingarangeofbenthicfeedingareasthroughoutthemigrationcorridortoensurepreyavailabilitytotheeiderseachyear)

4)Upper)Trophic)Level)Species)marine)birds)and)mammals)as)ecosystem)sentinels

Astoppredatorsmarinebirdsandmammalsmustadapttochangesintheirhabitatsresultingfromphysicalforcingandtherebycanserveassentinelstoecosystemshifts(Mooreetal2014MooreandGulland2014)ResponsesofUTLspeciestoalteredhabitatscanbe categorizedasextrinsicincludingshiftsinrangemigratorytiming(phenology)orregionsofhighabundance(hotspots)orintrinsicincludingchangesindietbodyconditionand chemicalcomposition(Fig5)

Figure)5)Marine)birds)and)mammals)are)upper)trophic)level)(UTL))species)that)reflect)ecosystem) alterations)by)changes)in)habitat)use)(extrinsic))and)body)condition)(intrinsic))revealing)fundamental) changes)in)marine)ecosystems)

Responsesareinter0relatedsuchthatashiftinrangephenologyoruseofhotspotswillbe reflectedinchangesindietbodyconditionandchemistryItisthisconnectionthatallowsus

27

todetectecosystemreorganizationbytrackingchangesintheecologyandphysiologyofUTL speciesAlthoughtherehavebeennocoordinatedlong0termstudiesofUTLspeciesinthe PacificArcticexaminingthisconnectionasynthesisofinformationfromvisualsurveyssatellitetaggingofindividualsandyear0roundacousticdetectionsprovidesanecological foundationthatcanprovideabaselinetoinformfutureinvestigations

41Seasonaloccurrencehotspothabitatsandacousticecology

Kuletzetal(2015)depictspatialpatternsofrelativeabundanceofseabirdsandmarinemammalsinsummerandfallderivedfromsixyearsofvisualsurveysintheeasternChukchi andwesternBeaufortseasUsingstatisticalspatialanalysistoolshotspotsforseabirdswalrusandgraywhaleswereidentifiedintheChukchiSeawhilehotspotsforbowheadwhalesandsealsweredescribednearBarrowCanyonandalongtheBeaufortSeashelfand slopeHotspotsforbelugasoccurredinboththeChukchiandBeaufortseasInsummerthreehotspotsweresharedbybothseabirdsandmarinemammalsintheChukchiSeawaters offshoreWainwrightsouthofHannaShoalandatthemouthofBarrowCanyonOnlytheBarrowCanyonhotspotwasoccupiedthroughthefallSharedhotspotswerecharacterized bystrongfrontscausedbyupwellingandcurrentswhichcanservetoaggregatepreyUsingadifferentapproachCittaetal(2015)providedetailedanalysisoftheseasonalmovementsandhabitatusebyasinglespeciesthroughoutoneyearLocationsfrom54bowheadwhales (Balaenamysticetus)obtainedbysatellitetelemetryfrom200602012wereusedtoidentifya totalofsixcore0useareasintheBeaufort(3)Chukchi(1)andnorthernBering(2)seas Takentogetherthetimingofuse(phenology)andphysicalcharacteristics(oceanographyseaiceandwinds)associatedwitheachareadescribeaseasonalcircuitbythewhalesthroughareasthoughttosupportelevatedpreydensities

Passiveacousticsamplinghasbecomeacommonyear0roundtooltodetectcallingmarine mammalsinarcticseas(Mooreetal2006Staffordetal2012)Since2007therehasbeenanespeciallystrongsamplingeffortassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationinthenortheast ChukchiandwesternBeaufortseas(egHannayetal2013 httpwwwafscnoaagovnmmlcetaceanchaozphp)Theserecorderdeployments augmentalong0standingacousticstudyinthecentralBeaufortSea(Blackwelletal2007)andmorerecentdeploymentsintheBeringStraitregion(KStaffordperscomm)HeretoforeresearchersconductedeachofthesestudiesindependentlyofoneanotherClark etal(2015)presentsanovelsynthesisofthecombinedoutputfromsixresearcheffortsusingfourtypesofrecordersandavarietyofsub0samplingandanalysisschemestodescribean lsquoacousticyearrsquointhelifeofthebowheadwhaleDetectionsofbowheadcallsfrom20sitesextendingover2300kmfromthenorthernBeringSeatothesoutheastBeaufortSeawere combinedovera140monthperiod(200902010)todescribewhaleoccurrenceacrosstheir rangeThespatialandtemporalvariabilityinsoundlevelswithinthefrequencybandofbowheadwhaleswasalsoquantifiedThelowestunderwatersoundlevelsoccurredfromlate NovemberuntilMayintheChukchiSeaDuringwinter200902010singingbowheadwhaleselevatedbroadbandsoundlevelsforroughly38daysinthenorthernBeringSeafollowedby

28

asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

29

ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

31

Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

32

(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

preferenceandbehaviorinthenortheasternChukchiSea1982084RepIntWhale Commn362730279

MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Moore

TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

Mathis

UsinganEnvironmentalIntelligenceFrameworktoEvaluatetheImpactsof

OceanAcidificationintheArctic

ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

26(Jan(2017(

Moore

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

24(Jan(2017(

VanPelt

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22(Apr(2017(

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 9: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

bull EcosystemObservationsintheChukchiSeaBiophysicalMooringandClimateModeling

bull ChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea(COMIDA)ChemistryandBenthos

bull DistributionandRelativeAbundanceofMarineMammalsCOMIDAAerialSurveys

bull HannaShoalEcosystemStudy

bull MonitoringtheDistributionofArcticWhales(alsoknownasBWASP)

bull WalrusHabitatUseinthePotentialDrillingArea

bull PinnipedMovementsandForagingBeardedSeals

bull AssessingReproductionandBodyConditionoftheRingedSealnearSachsHarbourNorthwestTerritoryCanadathroughaHarvest0basedSamplingProgram

bull ArcticmarineresearchstudiessupportedthroughNationalOceanPartnership Program(NOPP)towhichBOEMcontributes

bull StudiesconductedbytheAlaskaDepartmentofFishandGame(ADFampG)andtheNorthSlopeBorough(NSB)underBOEMrsquosCoastalImpactAssistanceProgram(CIAP)

Dataandresultsfromrelated(butnotBOEM0funded)studiesthatalsocontributetotheSOAR includebutarenotlimitedtothefollowing

bull NOAArsquosRUSALCAprogram(USA0RussiabilateralstudyoftheChukchiSea)

bull StudiessupportedbyNSFOfficeofPolarPrograms

bull StudiessupportedbytheLandscapeConservationCooperativeNetwork

bull StudiessupportedbytheAlaskaDepartmentofFishampGametheUSGeologicalSurveyandbytheUSFishampWildlifeService

bull Studiessupportedbyoilandgasindustry(egShellConocoPhillipsStatOilBritishPetroleum)relatedtomitigationandmonitoringofeffectsofoffshoreexplorationanddevelopmentonmarinemammalsandtheirenvironmentegtheChukchiSea EnvironmentalStudiesProgram(CSESP)

)

)

)

9

OBJECTIVES)AND)METHODS)

)

OBJECTIVES

)

TheSOARprojectfocusedonthreeobjectives

1 Increasescientificunderstandingoftheinter0andintra0relationshipsofoceanographicconditionsbenthicorganismslowertrophicpreyspecies(foragefishand zooplankton)andmarinemammaldistributionandbehaviorinthePARwithparticularemphasisontheChukchiSealeaseareas

2 Enhancecapabilitytopredictchangesinoceanographicfeaturessuchascurrents upwellingandiceleadsandassociatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARwithparticularemphasisonthenortheasternChukchiSea

3 EffectivelytransmitfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

)

METHODS

TASKFRAMEWORK

TheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojectwastouseavailableanalyticalandmodelingapproachestoidentifyandtesthypothesesthatcrossscientificdisciplinesSOARprovidesa frameworktosupportasynthesisofscientificinformationdrawnfromcompletedandongoingmarineresearchinthePacificArcticregionTheframeworkconsistsofsixtasks

1 establishaScienceSteeringCommitteetoprovideleadershipandoversightforthe synthesisproject

2 conductaSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)WorkshopinvolvingPIsfromall relevantresearchprogramsto

i identifyanddevelopsciencesynthesisthemesii detailrequireddataandanalysesforeachtheme iii formAnalyticalTeamstosupporttheworkofeachsynthesisthemeiv listanticipatedworkproducts(iepeer0reviewedpapersandpresentations)

and

10

v deriveameanstoarchivedataandmeta0datausedinsupportofthesynthesis 3 supportAnalyticalTeamdataintegrationandanalysisincludingtheme0based

meetingsasneeded 4 trackprogressofanalyticalworkviabi0monthlyteleconferencesandannualSCCAT0

updateworkshops 5 producescienceproductsincludingpresentationsatprofessionalmeetingsand

publicationofpeer0reviewedpapersasaSpecialIssueamporThemeSectionsinanappropriatescientificjournaland

6 communicatesynthesisapproachandfindingstolocalArcticresidentsresourcemanagersnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

TASKDETAIL

TASK)1)))ESTABLISH)AND)CONVENE)SCIENTIFIC)STEERING)COMMITTEE)

LeadershipandguidanceofthesynthesisprojectwasprovidedbyaScienceSteeringCommittee(SSC)formedofseniorscientistswithdecades0longexperienceinthePacific ArcticAttheinitialSSCmeetingthegroupidentifiedrelevantprojectsdeveloped provisionalsciencethemesandidentifiedpotentialparticipantsandleadersfor interdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeamsformedatthesubsequentSOARWorkshop

TASK)2)))PLAN)AND)CONDUCT)SOAR)WORKSHOP)

Amulti0disciplinarySOARWorkshopwasthekeystoneinitialproductofSOARWorkshop participantsinventoriedavailabledataandevaluateditssufficiencytoaddressspecificcross0 disciplinaryhypothesesandquestionsprovisionallyidentifiedassciencethemesbytheSSCTheprovisionallistofthemeswasmodifiedandnewthemesemergedattheworkshopOnce sciencethemeswereagreeduponinterdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeams(AT)wereformedto conductthecoreworkoftheSOARprojectInterdisciplinaryATstheninitiatedthe developmentofshortproposalstosupporttheworkrequiredfordataintegrationanalyses andormodeling

TASK)3))SUPPORT)DATA)INTEGRATION)ANALYSIS)AND)MODELING

Inresponsetoproposalsdetailingtheworktobeperformedtimelineandproducts anticipatedmdashandincoordinationwithSSCreviewmdashfundingwasprovidedviacontractfor selectedATstointegratedataconductanalysesrunmodelsandordeveloppublicationsInsomecasesdirectfundingwasnotneededandin0kindsupportwasprovidedintheformofreviewcoordinationandpublicationfacilitationAsubsetofATsintegratedtheirworkwith

11

on0goingoceanographicprograms(egRUSALCAandtheDistributedBiologicalObservatory[DBO])andinsomecasestheATsconductedfollow0ontheme0basedmeetingsorintegrativeworkshopsasthebestmeanstoaccomplishdataintegrationandsynthesisontheirtopic OtherATschosetointegratetheirworkviavideoorteleconferenceswiththebulkofcontract fundinggoingtowardssupportforagraduatestudentpost0docorotherresearcherto accomplishthesynthesistasksidentified)

TASK)4))TRACK)PROGRESS)OF)ANALYTICAL)WORK)

ATleadshadprimaryresponsibilityfortrackingtheprogressofworkontheirsciencethemeandmembersoftheSSCwerealsoaskedtofollowtheprogressoftheworktowardsuseful productsTrackingtooktheformofcontactatregularintervals(egbimonthly)viae0mailorphonesolicitingspecificinformationonproblemsencounteredandadherencetotimelineforproductcompletionSummariesofprogressoneachthemeappearedinQuarterlyReportsto theBOEM

TASK)5))SCIENCE)PRODUCTS))

ThecoreproductoftheSOARprojectwasaseriesofsciencepresentationsandpeer0reviewedpapersdescribingcurrentandprojectedstatusofthePARmarineecosystemAnnual presentationsontheapproachandprogressoftheSOARwereprovidedatplenarysessionsof theAlaskaMarineScienceSymposiumandadditionalpresentationsweremadeatother sciencevenuessuchastheAGUOceanSciencesmeetingSciencepaperswerethenpublishedinspecialissuesofpeer0reviewedjournalswiththeprojectPIsandcoordinatorservingas GuestEditors

TASK)6))COMMUNICATION)OF)SYNTHESIS)APPROACH)amp)PRODUCTS)

Inadditiontosciencepapersandpresentationsresultsofthesyntheseswereprovidedto communitiesinelectronicandhardcopyformatandopportunitiestospeakwithArcticresidentsweresoughtatco0managementmeetingsandotherforaAwebsitewasdeveloped providinggraphicsandbriefsummariesforgeneraluseandlinkingtootherrelevantsitesResultsofthesynthesiswerecommunicatedtovariousnationalandinternationalArctic Programs(egNOAAArcticReportCardSEARCHISACPAGIASCandArcticCouncilWorkingGroups)

12

SOARPHASE1ANDSOARPHASE2

Task5(ScienceProducts)wasoriginallyenvisagedtoresultinaspecialvolumeofpeer0reviewedpaperspossiblysupplementedbyanadditionalsmallersetofpapersinatheme sectionorothersimilaroutletHoweverfollowingcompletionofthefirstphaseofSOARculminatinginthe2015specialissueofProgressinOceanography(MooreandStabeno2015 seeResultssectionbelowformoreinformation)therewasahighlevelofinterestinextendingSOARtoincludeadditionalsynthesisThereforethesecondphaseofSOARwas developedbuildingfromaninformalmid0projectworkshopandresultinginasecondfullspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchIIFurtherdetailisprovidedinthefollowingsections

RESULTS)

FOUNDATIONALTASKSSCIENCESTEERINGCOMMITTEEANDWORKSHOP

THESOARSCIENCESTEERINGCOMMITTEE

AScienceSteeringCommittee(SCC)comprisedofscientistsandAlaskancoastalcommunityrepresentativeswasestablished(Table1)ThefirstoffiveannualSSCmeetingswasheldfrom103November2011attheWatertownHotelinSeattleWATheSSCidentifiedrelevantprojects anddatasourcesdevelopedthreedraftsciencethemesandrelatedquestionsandidentified potentialparticipantsandleadersforassociatedinterdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeamsthatwould beformedatSOARScienceWorkshopMultiplesubsequentmeetingsfurtherdevelopedthe sciencethemesandprovidedguidanceforSOARtasks(Table2)

)

Table)1))List)of)Science)Steering)Committee)members)and)institutions)

ScienceSteeringCommitteeMember

Affiliation Location

RobynAngliss NOAANationalMarineMammalLaboratory

SeattleWA

CarinAshjian WoodsHoleOceanographic Institution

WoodsHoleMA

ChristopherClark CornellUniversity IthacaNY

13

JacquelineGrebmeier UniversityofMarylandCenterforEnvironmental Studies

SolomonsMD

CraigGeorge NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EskimoWhaling

ComissionKawerak NomeAK

SueMoore NOAANMFS SeattleWA ChadJay USGeologicalSurvey AnchorageAK TimRagan MarineMammalCommission WashingtonDC PhyllisStabeno NOAAPMEL SeattleWA RobertSuydam NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK TomWeingartner UniversityofAlaska0

Fairbanks FairbanksAK

)

Table)2)List)of)SOAR)SSC)Teleconferences)and)inVperson)meetings)

SOAR)SSC)Meeting) SSCTeleconference1

Date) 21September2011

SSCTeleconference2 18October2011 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingSeattleWA 11November2011 SSCTeleconference3 16February2012 SSCTeleconference4 6April2012 SOARMarchWorkshop 14016March2012 SSCTeleconference5 6July2012 SSCTeleconference6 6October2012 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 21January2013 SSCTeleconference7) 9April2013 SSCTeleconference8) 14November2013 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 20January2014 SSCTeleconference9) 12January2015 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 23January2015 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK(informal)) 26January2016

SOARWORKSHOPndashMARCH2012

TheSOARScienceWorkshopwasheldfrom14016March2012attheEganCenterinAnchorageAlaskaTheSOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandProjectCoordinatorallmembersoftheScienceSteeringCommitteeand42ofthe43invitedSOARContributorsattendedthe

14

workshopDraftScienceThemesandQuestionsdevelopedbytheSOARScienceSteeringCommitteewereprovidedtoparticipantsinadvanceoftheworkshopsummarizedas(i)EcosystemResponsetoBottom0upandorTop0downForcing(ii)MarineBirdsMammalsandFishasEcosystemSentinelsand(iii)AcousticEcology

TheprimarygoalsoftheScienceWorkshopwereto(1)refinetheDraftScienceThemesandQuestions(2)formresearchteamstoundertakeanalysisinsupportofdevelopmentofpeer0reviewedpapersand(3)developshortproposalstoidentifyprojectmilestonesandfinancialsupportrequiredtocompletesyntheticprojects

DayoneoftheworkshopconsistedofdisciplinarytalksinplenarysessiontoprovideallparticipantswiththecurrentstateofknowledgeineachareaofstudyDuringdaytwooftheworkshopsciencethemeswererevisedtoreflectgroupinputParticipantsdividedintothree theme0basedbreakoutgroupsandbegandevelopingsciencequestionstoproposeforSOARDaythreeoftheworkshopbeganwithaplenarysummaryofthepreviousdayrsquosprogress followedbybreakoutgroupstowriteandsubmitone0pageproposalsfortheprojects requestingfundingOntheafternoonofthethirddayanopen0sessionwasheldto communicateworkshopprogresstoBOEMscientistsandmanagerscolleaguesfromtheNorthPacificResearchBoardandAlaskaOceanObservingSystemindustryrepresentativesand otherinterestedpartiesFurtherdetailsoftheSOARWorkshopcanbefoundintheSOAR WorkshopReport(SheffieldGuyetal2012a)andseealsoSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)

15

SCIENCEPRODUCTANDCOMMUNICATIONTASKS

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE1 FollowingtheinitialSOARthemeselectionsandteamdevelopmentandincorporatinganextensivepeer0reviewphaseledbytheprojectPIsandcoordinatorthefirstphaseofthe SOARprojectculminatedinaspecialvolumeofProgressinOceanographypublishedinAugust 2015(Fig2Table3)Thisspecialissueincluded16fullpapersplusanintroductionpaper authoredbythetwoprojectPIs

Figure)2)Cover)of)the)first)SOAR)special) volume)published)in)Progress)in)

Oceanography)in)2015)

16

Table)3))Papers)included)in)the)2015)SOAR)special)issue)of)Progress)in)Oceanography)

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsofthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011 WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressinOceanography13612031 FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015Divergentpatternsofrecent seaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049 WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059 ArrigoKRvanDijkenGL2015ContinuedincreasesinArcticOceanprimaryproductionProgressinOceanography13660070 MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJNFeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091 GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarkeJTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSHLovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015EcosystemcharacteristicsandprocessesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114 LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132 CrawfordJAQuakenbushLTCittaJJ2015Acomparisonofringedandbeardedsealdietconditionandproductivitybetweenhistorical(1975ndash1984)andrecent(2003ndash2012)periodsintheAlaskanBeringandChukchiseasProgressinOceanography1361330150 DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarctic seaiceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161 LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015LimitstobenthicfeedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchangingseaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174 KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015SeasonalspatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareas ProgressinOceanography1361750200 CittaJJQuakenbushLTOkkonenSRDruckenmillerMLMaslowskiWClement0KinneyJGeorgeJCBrowerHSmallRJAshjianCJHarwoodLAHeide0Joslashrgensen MP2015Ecologicalcharacteristicsofcore0useareasusedbyBeringndashChukchindashBeaufort(BCB)bowheadwhales2006ndash2012ProgressinOceanography1362010222

17

ClarkCWBerchokCLBlackwellSBHannayDEJonesJPonirakisDStafford KM2015AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasProgressinOceanography1362230240 MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationshipbetweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249 GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgressinOceanography1362500262 HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015ChangeintheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE2

Followingthe2015publicationofthefirstSOARspecialissueinProgressinOceanography theSOARprojectSSCandparticipantsdecidedtopursuecoordinatethepublicationofasetofpapersinfullsecondspecialissueThosePhase2topicsandpaperleadswerediscussedat theannualSOARSSCmeetinginJanuary2015Baseduponsuggestionsatthismeeting102pageproposalswererequestedfromsuggestedpaperleadsandproposalswerethen subsequentlydevelopedintopublishedpapersThemajorityofpapersforthesecondspecial issuewerecompletedandinpressbytheendof2017(Table4)withfinalpublicationofthe completespecialissueinDeepSeaResearchIIndashTopicalStudiesinOceanographyexpectedby latesummer2018

Table)4))Papers)to)appear)in)the)SOAR)2nd)Phase)special)issue)published)in)Deep)Sea)Research)Part)II)

Corresponding) Author Manuscript)Title

SueMoore IntroductionTheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)Project

MuyinWang SeaiceandoceancharacteristicsintheChukchiSeabyselectedCMIP5modelsthepresentandthefuture

NicholasBond DiagnosisofphysicaloceanographiceventsintheChukchiSea usinganoceanreanalysis

VictoriaHill DecadaltrendsinphytoplanktonproductioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

18

JessicaCross FormationandtransportofcorrosivewaterinthePacificArcticRegion

LeeCooper DepositionpatternsontheChukchiShelfusingradionuclide inventoriesinrelationtosurfacesedimentcharacteristics

Matthew Druckenmiller

Trendsinsea0icecoverandupwellingpotentialwithinBowheadwhaleuseareasintheWesternArctic

KateStafford AcousticecologyofbowheadandbelugawhalesincoreuseareasintheBeaufortandChukchiSeas

JohnCitta Oceanographiccharacteristicsassociatedwithbowheadwhale movementsintheChukchiSea

JohnCitta SeasonaldistributionandoverlapofmarinemammalsintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseas

KimberlyRand UsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

ElizabethLogerwell Environmentaldriversofbenthicfishdistributioninandaround BarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwesternBeaufortSea

KathleenStafford BelugawhalesintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaasynthesisofavailableinformationontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StephenOkkonen Relationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskanBeaufortSea

MartinRobards UnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesintheAlaskanArcticPlace0basedcollaborationswithAlaskaNative communities

SueMoore TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)ModellinkingtemporalprocessestocontiguousdomainsinthePacificArctic

19

PRESENTATIONSANDPOSTERSATSCIENTIFICMEETINGS

SOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandcontributorsmademorethan50presentationsincludinginformationaboutthissynthesiseffortatavarietyofscientificmeetingsworkshopsandwebinarsAfulllistofthesepresentationsisprovidedinAppendixC

OTHERCOMMUNICATIONOFSYNTHESISAPPROACHANDPRODUCTS

TheSynthesisofArcticResearchwebsitelocatedathttpswwwpmelnoaagovsoar providesbackgroundinformationandup0to0datescienceproductinformationtostakeholders andthegeneralpublicThewebsitewillcontinuetobeliveandhostedbyNOAA

Severalpeer0reviewedpaperswerepublishedthatalsoappealtoamoregeneralortrans0 disciplineaudienceincludingSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)andSheffieldGuyetal(2016)SOARsynthesisresultswerefeaturedinnumerousnewspapersonlinefeaturesmagazines andmore

SYNTHESIS)SUMMARY)AND)DISCUSSION)

SOARPHASEI

ThefirstphaseofSOARresultedinfifteenpaperspublishedinaspecialissueofProgressin Oceanographyin2015(Table3)HereweprovideabroadoverviewanddiscussionofthepapersinthatspecialissuedrawnfromtheIntroductiontothatissue(MooreandStabeno 2015)

1 Introduction)

TheinitiationoftheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)projectcoincidedwiththerecognitionthatbiophysicalchangesinthePacificArcticregionweresoextremecomparedtotherecentpastthattheyacquiredthemonikerlsquonewnormalrsquo(Jeffriesetal2013) ConsequentlydescribingthebiophysicalpropertiesofthelsquonewlsquoPacificArcticmarineecosystemwasfoundationaltotheSOAReffortandthefocusoffivepapersinthefirstspecial issueExaminingbiologicalresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingthenbecamethetaskofresearchersfocusedonthestudyoflowertrophiclevel(LTL)communitiesanduppertrophiclevel(UTL)speciesTwopapersprovideintegratedresultsfromdirectsamplingofbenthic andfishcommunitieswhilethreepapersreportonchangesinLTLspeciesoccurrenceinferredbyshiftsinthedietsofsealsandmarinebirdsSixpapersfocusonUTLspecieswith fourpresentinginformationonseasonaloccurrenceinhotspotorcore0usehabitatsandtwo describingvariabilityinmarinemammalbodyconditioninthecontextofdecadal0scale

20

environmentalvariabilityTogetherthesepapersprovideasyntheticcontexttofocushypothesesunderpinningthenextdecadeofresearchinthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

2)Biophysics)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

ThePacificArcticmarineecosystemiscomprisedofinflowshelves(northernBeringandChukchiseas)coupledtointeriorshelves(EastSiberianandBeaufortseas)withthe contrastingbiophysicsofthesedomainssummarizedinCarmacketal(2006)Circulationon bothinflowandinteriorshelvesislinkedtopan0arcticteleconnectionmechanisms(egArcticOscillation)withinteriorshelvesalsostronglyinfluencedbytheseasonaloutflowof relativelywarmfreshwaterfromarcticriversEvaluatingecosystemstatusandtrendsinthePacificArcticwasthefocusofarecentbookwith10(of12)chaptersdevotedtoobservationsandmodelingoftheatmosphereoceanphysicsandchemistry(GrebmeierandMaslowski 2014)Thepapersinthefirstspecialissueaddtothatbodyofknowledgeespeciallywithregardtobiologicalresponsestobiophysicaldriversandinthiswaycontributetoamore holisticunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

21)PhysicalobservationsandopenwaterprojectionsinthelsquonewnormalrsquoPacificArctic

Recentobservations(200302013)ofenvironmentalchangesinthePacificArcticsupportthecontentionthatanewnormalclimateisemerging(Fig3Jeffriesetal2013Woodetal 2015)

Figure)3))Highlights)of)recent)biophysical)changes)in)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

21

Theiconicindicatorofthischangeisthedramaticsummertimelossofseaice(50byarea75byvolume)whichinsomeyears(eg2012)hasresultedinnearlyice0freeconditionsin theregionSpecificallysatellitedatafrom197902012reveallocalizedchangesinsea0ice occurrenceofupto0164daysyearintheCanadaBasinand0124daysyearintheBeaufort Seawhichacceleratedto0657daysyear(CanadaBasin)and01284daysyear(Beaufort Sea)duringthe200002012period(Freyetal2015)Multiyearseaicehasalmostentirelydisappearedwithinter0annualvariabilityiniceconcentrationlargelydrivenbywindforcing intheBeaufortSeaIntheCanadaBasindifferencesinannualseaiceareprimarilythermallydrivenwhilesea0iceextentisinfluencedbybothwindsandheatontheBeringSeashelf

Thesummeratmosphericpatternsinfluenceoceancirculationfreshwaterpathwaysand movementandmeltingofseaiceDuringthelastdecadetheintensificationoftheBeaufortHigh(OgiandWallace2012)resultedinanomaloussummerwindsTheseanomalouswinds togetherwiththelossofmulti0yeariceweretheprimaryfactorsthattransformedtheChukchiandnorthernBeaufortseasintoanopenwaterenvironment(Woodetal2015)InparticulartheeasternBeaufortSeaappearstobeparticularlysusceptibletoanomalouswindsthrough theireffectontheadvectionofwarmfreshwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumeInadditiontransportanomaliesintheBeringStraitaredeterminedbycompetinglarge0scale atmosphericpatternstheBeaufortHighandAleutianLow(Danielsonetal2014)NotablychangesinBeringStraitflowthroughcanimpacttheworldclimatefarbeyondtheBeringStraitandArcticregion(egHuetal2015)

Freyetal(2015)investigatetheinfluenceofthePacificDecadalOscillation(PDO)andtheArcticOscillation(AO)onthepersistenceofseaiceinsummerandwinterTheyfoundsignificantnegativecorrelationsbetweenseaiceonthesoutheasternBeringSeashelfandthe PDOinwinteraswellassignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweentheAOandsea0icecoverjustsouthofStLawrenceIslandSignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweenthePDOandsea iceintheCanadaBasin0CanadianArchipelagowerefoundinsummeraswellasbetweentheAOandseaiceintheChukchi0BeaufortseasThisnovelinvestigationofteleconnections betweenthePDOtheAOandsea0icecoverprovidesacriticalstepinunderstandinghow globalandregionalclimatepatternsinfluencethephysicsofthePacificArcticregion

Theunprecedentedlossofseaicehasresultedinatremendousincreaseinopen0water susceptibletorapidsolarheatingwithadditionalheatandfreshwaterprovidedbya50 increaseinPacificWaterinflowatBeringStraitfrom200102011(Woodgateetal2012 Woodetal2015)TheinfluenceofincreasedheatstoredintheChukchiandBeaufortseasis notwellunderstoodSuggestionsthatheatreleasedtotheatmosphereinlateautumnandwinterdrivesaspectsofmid0latitudeweatherremainspeculativelargelyduetotheshort timerecordavailable(Woodetal2015)FresheningoftheArcticOceanhasbeenoccurring atleastsincethe1990s(egGilesetal2012)Severalexplanationshavebeenproposed includingincreasedsea0icemeltfresherPacificWaterflowingthroughBeringStraitchanges inthemagnitudeofriverdischargeandthemeanstrengtheningoftheBeaufortHighInrecentyearsrelativelystrongeasterlywindshavebeencommonduetotheArctic0wide

22

patternofcirculationaroundanintensifiedBeaufortHighUndertheseconditionsfreshand warmwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumecanbelaterallytransportedfaroutintothe BeaufortSea(Woodetal2015)

WangandOverland(2015)comparedresultsfromtwelvecoupledclimatemodelstoproducecompositeprojectionsofthedurationofopenwaterintheChukchiandBeaufortseasat decadalintervalsfrom201002050andin2090Forwatersnorthofthe70degNopen0water durationshiftsfrom304monthsin2010toaprojected~5monthsby2040Projectedopen0 waterdurationisaboutonemonthlongeralongthesamelatitudesintheChukchiSeacomparedwiththeBeaufortSeawithuncertaintyofaboutplusmn1monthestimatedfromtherangeofmodelresultsAllmodelsprojectedopen0waterdurationtoexpandquicklyoverthe nextthreedecadeswhichwillimpactregionaleconomicaccessandpotentiallyalterecosystemsYetthePacificArcticregionwillremaincoveredwiththinfirst0yearicefrom JanuarythroughMayintothesecondhalfofthecenturyduetoseasonallackofsunlight

22Changesinprimaryproductionandoceanacidification

Thedramaticlossofsea0iceextentandvolumehasresultedinaconcomitantincreaseinlightpenetrationintheupperoceanacrosstheArcticGiventhethinningandarealreductionof seaiceafundamentalquestionariseshavethesechangesfosteredanincreaseinmarineprimaryproductionSpecificallyisthePacificArcticregionmoreproductivethanitwasthreedecadesagoIntheAtlanticArcticLeuetal(2011)measuredprimaryproductionby bothicealgaeandphytoplanktonincontrastingyears(2007008)ofsea0icecoverinaSvalbardfjordandconcludedthatearliericebreakupcorrespondedwithearlieronsetofa phytoplanktonbloomSimilarlyTremblayetal(2012)reportincreasedprimaryproductionfor2007008associatedwithextremesea0iceretreatsandincreasedupwellingatstations locatedsouthandeastofBanksIslandinthesoutheasternBeaufortSeaButcanconclusions drawnfrommeasurementssorestrictedinspaceandtimebeextrapolatedtolargerarcticregionsUsingsatelliteimageryArrigoandvanDijken(2015)investigatedchangesinseaice atbothregionalandbasinscalesfrom199802012andestimatedhowthesechangeshaveimpactedratesofnetprimaryproduction(NPP)byphytoplanktonTheyreportthatannual NPPincreased30duringthisperiodwiththelargestincreasesontheinteriorshelves (includingtheEastSiberianandBeaufort)andsmallerincreasesoninflowshelves(includingtheChukchi)OutflowshelveseitherexhibitednochangeinannualNPPoradeclineperhaps indicatingthatnutrientshadbeenconsumedfurtherupstreamIncreasedannualNPPwasoftenbutnotalwaysassociatedwithreducedsea0iceextentandresultantlonger phytoplanktongrowingseason

HumanactivitieshaveincreasedtheatmosphericCO2concentrationbyabout40sincethebeginningoftheindustrialageanditisestimatedthattheoceanhasabsorbedmorethan25

23

ofthetotalanthropogenicemissions(Mathisetal2015)TheoceanicuptakeofCO2triggersaseriesofchemicalreactionsinthesurfaceoceanthatreducespHandresultsinocean acidification(OA)InshortOAmakesseawatercorrosivetocalciumcarbonatemineralswhichmanymarineorganismsrelyonforbodystructuresHigh0latitudeoceanshave naturallylowcarbonateconcentrationssoareconsideredtobemorevulnerabletotheimpactsofOAbecauseadditionalcarbonatelossrepresentsamuchgreaterproportionalchangetothesystemInanovelstudyMathisetalprovideariskassessmentofOAimpacts tocommercialandtraditionalfisheriesfocusedonshellfishsalmonandfinfishTheresultant indexsuggeststhatwhilethenorthernBeringSeaisatmediumriskfromOAimpactsto fisheriesPacificArcticwatersnorthoftheSewardPeninsulaarecurrentlyatlowriskduelargelytoalackofdependenceonthesefoodsources

3)Lower)Trophic)Level)Communities)signals)from)direct)and)indirect)sampling

ThepredominantconceptualmodelframinghowmarineecosystemsinthePacificArctic respondtoreducedseaiceisbasedonchangesanticipatedfromashiftinpelagic0benthic coupling(Fig4)

Figure)4))Generalized)conceptual)model)depicting)the)influence)of)sea)ice)on)pelagicVbenthic)coupling)on) Pacific)Arctic)continental)shelves)

24

OnthebroadshelvesthatcomprisemuchofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemnewprimaryproductionfromsea0icealgaeandphytoplanktonbloomsfallstotheseafloortosupportrich benthiccommunities(Grebmeier2012)Asseaicethinsandretreatsearlierintheseasonitisanticipatedthatearlierandlargerphytoplanktonbloomswillswitchfromabenthic0 dominatedtoapelagic0dominatedmarineecosystemThisshiftwillcascadethroughthesystemsupportingnovelcommunitiesofsecondaryandtertiaryconsumers(zooplanktonandforagefishes)anduppertrophiclevelmarinebirdsandmammalsIndeedGrebmeieret al(2006)suggestedthatthistypeofecosystemshiftisalreadyunderwayinthemarinecommunitiesofthenorthernBeringSeaThePacificArcticisoftendescribedasabenthic0 dominatedmarineecosystemonethatdoesnotsupportalargebiomassorspeciesdiversityoffishesAdescriptionofconditionsthathavefosteredexistingbenthichotspotsoffersa solidfoundationforassessingfuturechangeswhileanaccountingoftheexistingcommunitiesofmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsprovidesastartingpointuponwhichtobuildalong0termrecord)

31Benthichotspotsandmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitats

ArecordofextantconditionsiskeytointerpretingmarineecosystemresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingnowevidentinthePacificArcticSucharecordexistsforfourbenthic lsquohotspotrsquocommunitiesinthenorthernBeringandChukchiseas(Grebmeieretal2015a)but notformarinefishesLong0termsamplingofbenthicmacrofaunalcommunitiesindicatesthatthebenthichotspotshavemaintainedconsistentlyhighbiomassforuptofourdecadesdueto reoccurrenceofseasonallyreliablemoderate0to0highwatercolumnproductioncoupledwithexportofcarbonfromoverlyingwaterstotheseafloorUppertrophiclevelbenthivorestargetpreyaggregationsineachofthehotspotsOverallbottom0upforcingbyhydrography andfoodsupplytothebenthosinfluencespersistenceandcompositionofbenthicpreywhichinturninfluencestheuppertrophiclevelspeciescompositionandseasonaloccurrence Whenconsistentlysampledintandemthesebenthos0benthivoreconnectionscanfacilitate useofUTLspeciesassentinelsofshiftsinpreycompositionandabundance(Mooreetal2014)

Sincethe2000stherehavebeenahostofArcticmarinefishsurveysintheChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasprecipitatedbybothscientificinterestintheimpactsofclimatechangeandcommercialinterestinoilandgasdevelopment(Logerwelletal2015)Resultsfrom thesesurveysprovideanovelopportunitytocompareArcticfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsrangingfromlagoonsandbeachestobenthicandpelagiccontinental shelfwatersAsynthesisofdatafromthesesurveysrevealedmoresimilaritiesthandifferencesinhabitatusebetweenthetwoseasForexamplenearshorehabitatisusedbyallageclassesofforagefishesandisalsoanurseryareaforotherspeciesinboththeChukchiand westernBeaufortseasNotablysomecommercialspeciesmaybeexpandingtheirrangenorthtothesewatersincludingchinooksalmon(Oncorhynchustshawytscha)walleyepollock (Gaduschalcogrammus)andflatfishes(Pleuronectidae)Inadditionasynthesisofinformationonrelativeabundanceandageofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)andsaffroncod

25

(Eleginusgracilis)bothkeypreyspeciesinArcticfoodwebssupportedthedevelopmentoflifehistoryanddistributionmodelsthatwillinformfutureresearchontrophicdynamicsin thePacificArcticsector

32Inferencesofmarineecosystemshiftsfromsealsseabirdsandseaducks

Additionalinformationregardingtheimpactoflsquonewnormalrsquobiophysicalconditionsonlowertrophiclevelspeciescanbeinferredfromshiftsinthedietandbodyconditionofmarine mammalsandbirdsCrawfordetal(2015)comparedthedietandconditionofringedseals(Pusahispida)andbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)harvestedintheAlaskanBeringand Chukchiseasduringhistorical(197501984)andrecent(200302012)periodsTheyfoundthe proportionoffishinthedietofbothspeciesincreasedintherecentreduced0iceperiodcomparedtothehistoricalperiodInadditionringedsealsgrewfasterhadthickerblubber andmaturedtwoyearsearlierBeardedsealshadthickerblubberintherecentperiodbut didnotmanifesttheotherchangesreportedfortheringedsealsAlthoughanumberofthe comparisonswerenotstatisticallysignificanttakentogethertheseobservationssuggestgreaterfishavailabilityintheAlaskanBering0Chukchimarineecosystemsupportinggood bodyconditionintheseals

AsinthesealpaperDivokyetal(2015)parsedalong0termdatasetintorecent(200302012)andhistorical(197501984)periodstocompareoceanographicconditionsnestlingdietandfledgingsuccessatablackguillemot(Cepphusgryllemandtii)breedingcolonyinthewestern BeaufortSeaFrom15Julyto1Septemberseaiceretreatedanaverageof18kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof958kmfromthecolonyduringthehistoricalperiodwhileinthe recentperiodiceretreataveraged98kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof5069kmSeasurfacetemperaturenearthecolonyincreasedby29⁰CbetweenthetwoperiodsWhileArcticcodcomprisedover95ofthepreyprovidedtonestlingsinthehistoricalperiodthis proportiondecreasedtolt5ofthenestlingdietduringmostyearsintherecentperiodwhendemersalsculpin(Cottidae)comprisedthemajorityofthedietTheshiftawayfrom Arcticcodwasassociatedwithafive0foldincreaseintherateofnestlingstarvationand reductionsinnestlinggrowthandfledgingmassConverselyannualadultsurvivalduringthe nonbreedingseason(September0May)showednosignificantdifferencebetweenthetwo periodssuggestingnochangeintheavailabilityofArcticcodorinoverallpreyavailabilityto blackguillemotsintheirBeringSeawinteringarea

IncontrasttoarelianceonpelagicpreyLovvornetal(2015)investigatedpotentialclimate0 relatedlimitstobenthicfeedingbyseaducksalongtheirmigrationcorridorinthenortheasternChukchiSeaKingeiders(Somateriaspectabilis)primarilyeatclams(bivalves) duringmigrationandrecentsamplinghasshownthatdenseclamassemblagesoccuronlyinspecificlocationsalongthemigrationcorridorSeaicecanpreventeidersfromreachingtheseprimefeedingsiteswithsatellitedataforApril‒May(2001‒2013)showingthataccess canvaryfrom0‒100InawarmingandincreasinglyvariableclimateaccesstobenthicfeedingsitesmaybefurthererodedbytheeffectsofwindsonunconsolidatediceThese

26

resultsunderscoretheimportanceofmaintainingarangeofbenthicfeedingareasthroughoutthemigrationcorridortoensurepreyavailabilitytotheeiderseachyear)

4)Upper)Trophic)Level)Species)marine)birds)and)mammals)as)ecosystem)sentinels

Astoppredatorsmarinebirdsandmammalsmustadapttochangesintheirhabitatsresultingfromphysicalforcingandtherebycanserveassentinelstoecosystemshifts(Mooreetal2014MooreandGulland2014)ResponsesofUTLspeciestoalteredhabitatscanbe categorizedasextrinsicincludingshiftsinrangemigratorytiming(phenology)orregionsofhighabundance(hotspots)orintrinsicincludingchangesindietbodyconditionand chemicalcomposition(Fig5)

Figure)5)Marine)birds)and)mammals)are)upper)trophic)level)(UTL))species)that)reflect)ecosystem) alterations)by)changes)in)habitat)use)(extrinsic))and)body)condition)(intrinsic))revealing)fundamental) changes)in)marine)ecosystems)

Responsesareinter0relatedsuchthatashiftinrangephenologyoruseofhotspotswillbe reflectedinchangesindietbodyconditionandchemistryItisthisconnectionthatallowsus

27

todetectecosystemreorganizationbytrackingchangesintheecologyandphysiologyofUTL speciesAlthoughtherehavebeennocoordinatedlong0termstudiesofUTLspeciesinthe PacificArcticexaminingthisconnectionasynthesisofinformationfromvisualsurveyssatellitetaggingofindividualsandyear0roundacousticdetectionsprovidesanecological foundationthatcanprovideabaselinetoinformfutureinvestigations

41Seasonaloccurrencehotspothabitatsandacousticecology

Kuletzetal(2015)depictspatialpatternsofrelativeabundanceofseabirdsandmarinemammalsinsummerandfallderivedfromsixyearsofvisualsurveysintheeasternChukchi andwesternBeaufortseasUsingstatisticalspatialanalysistoolshotspotsforseabirdswalrusandgraywhaleswereidentifiedintheChukchiSeawhilehotspotsforbowheadwhalesandsealsweredescribednearBarrowCanyonandalongtheBeaufortSeashelfand slopeHotspotsforbelugasoccurredinboththeChukchiandBeaufortseasInsummerthreehotspotsweresharedbybothseabirdsandmarinemammalsintheChukchiSeawaters offshoreWainwrightsouthofHannaShoalandatthemouthofBarrowCanyonOnlytheBarrowCanyonhotspotwasoccupiedthroughthefallSharedhotspotswerecharacterized bystrongfrontscausedbyupwellingandcurrentswhichcanservetoaggregatepreyUsingadifferentapproachCittaetal(2015)providedetailedanalysisoftheseasonalmovementsandhabitatusebyasinglespeciesthroughoutoneyearLocationsfrom54bowheadwhales (Balaenamysticetus)obtainedbysatellitetelemetryfrom200602012wereusedtoidentifya totalofsixcore0useareasintheBeaufort(3)Chukchi(1)andnorthernBering(2)seas Takentogetherthetimingofuse(phenology)andphysicalcharacteristics(oceanographyseaiceandwinds)associatedwitheachareadescribeaseasonalcircuitbythewhalesthroughareasthoughttosupportelevatedpreydensities

Passiveacousticsamplinghasbecomeacommonyear0roundtooltodetectcallingmarine mammalsinarcticseas(Mooreetal2006Staffordetal2012)Since2007therehasbeenanespeciallystrongsamplingeffortassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationinthenortheast ChukchiandwesternBeaufortseas(egHannayetal2013 httpwwwafscnoaagovnmmlcetaceanchaozphp)Theserecorderdeployments augmentalong0standingacousticstudyinthecentralBeaufortSea(Blackwelletal2007)andmorerecentdeploymentsintheBeringStraitregion(KStaffordperscomm)HeretoforeresearchersconductedeachofthesestudiesindependentlyofoneanotherClark etal(2015)presentsanovelsynthesisofthecombinedoutputfromsixresearcheffortsusingfourtypesofrecordersandavarietyofsub0samplingandanalysisschemestodescribean lsquoacousticyearrsquointhelifeofthebowheadwhaleDetectionsofbowheadcallsfrom20sitesextendingover2300kmfromthenorthernBeringSeatothesoutheastBeaufortSeawere combinedovera140monthperiod(200902010)todescribewhaleoccurrenceacrosstheir rangeThespatialandtemporalvariabilityinsoundlevelswithinthefrequencybandofbowheadwhaleswasalsoquantifiedThelowestunderwatersoundlevelsoccurredfromlate NovemberuntilMayintheChukchiSeaDuringwinter200902010singingbowheadwhaleselevatedbroadbandsoundlevelsforroughly38daysinthenorthernBeringSeafollowedby

28

asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

29

ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

31

Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

32

(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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46

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DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarcticsea iceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161

DruckenmillerMLCittaJJFergusonMCClarkeJTGeorgeJCQuakenbushLinpressTrendsinsea0icecoverwithinbowheadwhalehabitatsinthePacificArctic

47

DuntonKHGrebmeierJM andTrefry JH2017HannaShoalAnintegrativestudyofaHighArcticmarineecosystemintheChukchiSeaDeepSeaResearchPartIIDOI 101016jdsr2201709001

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FeelyRADoneySCCooleySR2009Oceanacidificationpresentconditionsandfuture changesinahigh0CO2worldOceanography2236047

FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015DivergentpatternsofrecentseaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049

GeorgeJCBadaJZehJScottLBrownSEOharaTampSuydamR1999Ageandgrowthestimatesofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)viaasparticacid racemizationCanadianJournalofZoology775710580

GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgress inOceanography1362500262

GilesKALaxonSWRidoutALWinghamDJBaconS2012WesternArcticOceanfreshwaterstorageincreasedbywind0drivenspin0upoftheBeaufortGyreNature Geoscience51940197

GrebmeierJMOverlandJEMooreSEFarleyEVCarmackECCooperLWFreyKEHelleJHMcLaughlinFAMcNuttSL2006AmajorecosystemshiftinthenorthernBeringSeaScience311146101464

GrebmeierJM2012ShiftingpatternsoflifeinthePacificArcticandsub0arcticseasAnnual ReviewofMarineScience41610166

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GrebmeierJMMooreSE Overland JEFrey KEandGradinger R2010BiologicalresponsetorecentPacificArcticseaiceretreatsEOS91(18)1610168

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HillVArdynaMLeeSHVarelaDEinpressDecadaltrendsinphytoplankton productioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

preferenceandbehaviorinthenortheasternChukchiSea1982084RepIntWhale Commn362730279

MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

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Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 10: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

OBJECTIVES)AND)METHODS)

)

OBJECTIVES

)

TheSOARprojectfocusedonthreeobjectives

1 Increasescientificunderstandingoftheinter0andintra0relationshipsofoceanographicconditionsbenthicorganismslowertrophicpreyspecies(foragefishand zooplankton)andmarinemammaldistributionandbehaviorinthePARwithparticularemphasisontheChukchiSealeaseareas

2 Enhancecapabilitytopredictchangesinoceanographicfeaturessuchascurrents upwellingandiceleadsandassociatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARwithparticularemphasisonthenortheasternChukchiSea

3 EffectivelytransmitfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

)

METHODS

TASKFRAMEWORK

TheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojectwastouseavailableanalyticalandmodelingapproachestoidentifyandtesthypothesesthatcrossscientificdisciplinesSOARprovidesa frameworktosupportasynthesisofscientificinformationdrawnfromcompletedandongoingmarineresearchinthePacificArcticregionTheframeworkconsistsofsixtasks

1 establishaScienceSteeringCommitteetoprovideleadershipandoversightforthe synthesisproject

2 conductaSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)WorkshopinvolvingPIsfromall relevantresearchprogramsto

i identifyanddevelopsciencesynthesisthemesii detailrequireddataandanalysesforeachtheme iii formAnalyticalTeamstosupporttheworkofeachsynthesisthemeiv listanticipatedworkproducts(iepeer0reviewedpapersandpresentations)

and

10

v deriveameanstoarchivedataandmeta0datausedinsupportofthesynthesis 3 supportAnalyticalTeamdataintegrationandanalysisincludingtheme0based

meetingsasneeded 4 trackprogressofanalyticalworkviabi0monthlyteleconferencesandannualSCCAT0

updateworkshops 5 producescienceproductsincludingpresentationsatprofessionalmeetingsand

publicationofpeer0reviewedpapersasaSpecialIssueamporThemeSectionsinanappropriatescientificjournaland

6 communicatesynthesisapproachandfindingstolocalArcticresidentsresourcemanagersnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

TASKDETAIL

TASK)1)))ESTABLISH)AND)CONVENE)SCIENTIFIC)STEERING)COMMITTEE)

LeadershipandguidanceofthesynthesisprojectwasprovidedbyaScienceSteeringCommittee(SSC)formedofseniorscientistswithdecades0longexperienceinthePacific ArcticAttheinitialSSCmeetingthegroupidentifiedrelevantprojectsdeveloped provisionalsciencethemesandidentifiedpotentialparticipantsandleadersfor interdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeamsformedatthesubsequentSOARWorkshop

TASK)2)))PLAN)AND)CONDUCT)SOAR)WORKSHOP)

Amulti0disciplinarySOARWorkshopwasthekeystoneinitialproductofSOARWorkshop participantsinventoriedavailabledataandevaluateditssufficiencytoaddressspecificcross0 disciplinaryhypothesesandquestionsprovisionallyidentifiedassciencethemesbytheSSCTheprovisionallistofthemeswasmodifiedandnewthemesemergedattheworkshopOnce sciencethemeswereagreeduponinterdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeams(AT)wereformedto conductthecoreworkoftheSOARprojectInterdisciplinaryATstheninitiatedthe developmentofshortproposalstosupporttheworkrequiredfordataintegrationanalyses andormodeling

TASK)3))SUPPORT)DATA)INTEGRATION)ANALYSIS)AND)MODELING

Inresponsetoproposalsdetailingtheworktobeperformedtimelineandproducts anticipatedmdashandincoordinationwithSSCreviewmdashfundingwasprovidedviacontractfor selectedATstointegratedataconductanalysesrunmodelsandordeveloppublicationsInsomecasesdirectfundingwasnotneededandin0kindsupportwasprovidedintheformofreviewcoordinationandpublicationfacilitationAsubsetofATsintegratedtheirworkwith

11

on0goingoceanographicprograms(egRUSALCAandtheDistributedBiologicalObservatory[DBO])andinsomecasestheATsconductedfollow0ontheme0basedmeetingsorintegrativeworkshopsasthebestmeanstoaccomplishdataintegrationandsynthesisontheirtopic OtherATschosetointegratetheirworkviavideoorteleconferenceswiththebulkofcontract fundinggoingtowardssupportforagraduatestudentpost0docorotherresearcherto accomplishthesynthesistasksidentified)

TASK)4))TRACK)PROGRESS)OF)ANALYTICAL)WORK)

ATleadshadprimaryresponsibilityfortrackingtheprogressofworkontheirsciencethemeandmembersoftheSSCwerealsoaskedtofollowtheprogressoftheworktowardsuseful productsTrackingtooktheformofcontactatregularintervals(egbimonthly)viae0mailorphonesolicitingspecificinformationonproblemsencounteredandadherencetotimelineforproductcompletionSummariesofprogressoneachthemeappearedinQuarterlyReportsto theBOEM

TASK)5))SCIENCE)PRODUCTS))

ThecoreproductoftheSOARprojectwasaseriesofsciencepresentationsandpeer0reviewedpapersdescribingcurrentandprojectedstatusofthePARmarineecosystemAnnual presentationsontheapproachandprogressoftheSOARwereprovidedatplenarysessionsof theAlaskaMarineScienceSymposiumandadditionalpresentationsweremadeatother sciencevenuessuchastheAGUOceanSciencesmeetingSciencepaperswerethenpublishedinspecialissuesofpeer0reviewedjournalswiththeprojectPIsandcoordinatorservingas GuestEditors

TASK)6))COMMUNICATION)OF)SYNTHESIS)APPROACH)amp)PRODUCTS)

Inadditiontosciencepapersandpresentationsresultsofthesyntheseswereprovidedto communitiesinelectronicandhardcopyformatandopportunitiestospeakwithArcticresidentsweresoughtatco0managementmeetingsandotherforaAwebsitewasdeveloped providinggraphicsandbriefsummariesforgeneraluseandlinkingtootherrelevantsitesResultsofthesynthesiswerecommunicatedtovariousnationalandinternationalArctic Programs(egNOAAArcticReportCardSEARCHISACPAGIASCandArcticCouncilWorkingGroups)

12

SOARPHASE1ANDSOARPHASE2

Task5(ScienceProducts)wasoriginallyenvisagedtoresultinaspecialvolumeofpeer0reviewedpaperspossiblysupplementedbyanadditionalsmallersetofpapersinatheme sectionorothersimilaroutletHoweverfollowingcompletionofthefirstphaseofSOARculminatinginthe2015specialissueofProgressinOceanography(MooreandStabeno2015 seeResultssectionbelowformoreinformation)therewasahighlevelofinterestinextendingSOARtoincludeadditionalsynthesisThereforethesecondphaseofSOARwas developedbuildingfromaninformalmid0projectworkshopandresultinginasecondfullspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchIIFurtherdetailisprovidedinthefollowingsections

RESULTS)

FOUNDATIONALTASKSSCIENCESTEERINGCOMMITTEEANDWORKSHOP

THESOARSCIENCESTEERINGCOMMITTEE

AScienceSteeringCommittee(SCC)comprisedofscientistsandAlaskancoastalcommunityrepresentativeswasestablished(Table1)ThefirstoffiveannualSSCmeetingswasheldfrom103November2011attheWatertownHotelinSeattleWATheSSCidentifiedrelevantprojects anddatasourcesdevelopedthreedraftsciencethemesandrelatedquestionsandidentified potentialparticipantsandleadersforassociatedinterdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeamsthatwould beformedatSOARScienceWorkshopMultiplesubsequentmeetingsfurtherdevelopedthe sciencethemesandprovidedguidanceforSOARtasks(Table2)

)

Table)1))List)of)Science)Steering)Committee)members)and)institutions)

ScienceSteeringCommitteeMember

Affiliation Location

RobynAngliss NOAANationalMarineMammalLaboratory

SeattleWA

CarinAshjian WoodsHoleOceanographic Institution

WoodsHoleMA

ChristopherClark CornellUniversity IthacaNY

13

JacquelineGrebmeier UniversityofMarylandCenterforEnvironmental Studies

SolomonsMD

CraigGeorge NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EskimoWhaling

ComissionKawerak NomeAK

SueMoore NOAANMFS SeattleWA ChadJay USGeologicalSurvey AnchorageAK TimRagan MarineMammalCommission WashingtonDC PhyllisStabeno NOAAPMEL SeattleWA RobertSuydam NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK TomWeingartner UniversityofAlaska0

Fairbanks FairbanksAK

)

Table)2)List)of)SOAR)SSC)Teleconferences)and)inVperson)meetings)

SOAR)SSC)Meeting) SSCTeleconference1

Date) 21September2011

SSCTeleconference2 18October2011 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingSeattleWA 11November2011 SSCTeleconference3 16February2012 SSCTeleconference4 6April2012 SOARMarchWorkshop 14016March2012 SSCTeleconference5 6July2012 SSCTeleconference6 6October2012 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 21January2013 SSCTeleconference7) 9April2013 SSCTeleconference8) 14November2013 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 20January2014 SSCTeleconference9) 12January2015 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 23January2015 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK(informal)) 26January2016

SOARWORKSHOPndashMARCH2012

TheSOARScienceWorkshopwasheldfrom14016March2012attheEganCenterinAnchorageAlaskaTheSOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandProjectCoordinatorallmembersoftheScienceSteeringCommitteeand42ofthe43invitedSOARContributorsattendedthe

14

workshopDraftScienceThemesandQuestionsdevelopedbytheSOARScienceSteeringCommitteewereprovidedtoparticipantsinadvanceoftheworkshopsummarizedas(i)EcosystemResponsetoBottom0upandorTop0downForcing(ii)MarineBirdsMammalsandFishasEcosystemSentinelsand(iii)AcousticEcology

TheprimarygoalsoftheScienceWorkshopwereto(1)refinetheDraftScienceThemesandQuestions(2)formresearchteamstoundertakeanalysisinsupportofdevelopmentofpeer0reviewedpapersand(3)developshortproposalstoidentifyprojectmilestonesandfinancialsupportrequiredtocompletesyntheticprojects

DayoneoftheworkshopconsistedofdisciplinarytalksinplenarysessiontoprovideallparticipantswiththecurrentstateofknowledgeineachareaofstudyDuringdaytwooftheworkshopsciencethemeswererevisedtoreflectgroupinputParticipantsdividedintothree theme0basedbreakoutgroupsandbegandevelopingsciencequestionstoproposeforSOARDaythreeoftheworkshopbeganwithaplenarysummaryofthepreviousdayrsquosprogress followedbybreakoutgroupstowriteandsubmitone0pageproposalsfortheprojects requestingfundingOntheafternoonofthethirddayanopen0sessionwasheldto communicateworkshopprogresstoBOEMscientistsandmanagerscolleaguesfromtheNorthPacificResearchBoardandAlaskaOceanObservingSystemindustryrepresentativesand otherinterestedpartiesFurtherdetailsoftheSOARWorkshopcanbefoundintheSOAR WorkshopReport(SheffieldGuyetal2012a)andseealsoSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)

15

SCIENCEPRODUCTANDCOMMUNICATIONTASKS

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE1 FollowingtheinitialSOARthemeselectionsandteamdevelopmentandincorporatinganextensivepeer0reviewphaseledbytheprojectPIsandcoordinatorthefirstphaseofthe SOARprojectculminatedinaspecialvolumeofProgressinOceanographypublishedinAugust 2015(Fig2Table3)Thisspecialissueincluded16fullpapersplusanintroductionpaper authoredbythetwoprojectPIs

Figure)2)Cover)of)the)first)SOAR)special) volume)published)in)Progress)in)

Oceanography)in)2015)

16

Table)3))Papers)included)in)the)2015)SOAR)special)issue)of)Progress)in)Oceanography)

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsofthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011 WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressinOceanography13612031 FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015Divergentpatternsofrecent seaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049 WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059 ArrigoKRvanDijkenGL2015ContinuedincreasesinArcticOceanprimaryproductionProgressinOceanography13660070 MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJNFeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091 GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarkeJTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSHLovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015EcosystemcharacteristicsandprocessesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114 LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132 CrawfordJAQuakenbushLTCittaJJ2015Acomparisonofringedandbeardedsealdietconditionandproductivitybetweenhistorical(1975ndash1984)andrecent(2003ndash2012)periodsintheAlaskanBeringandChukchiseasProgressinOceanography1361330150 DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarctic seaiceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161 LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015LimitstobenthicfeedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchangingseaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174 KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015SeasonalspatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareas ProgressinOceanography1361750200 CittaJJQuakenbushLTOkkonenSRDruckenmillerMLMaslowskiWClement0KinneyJGeorgeJCBrowerHSmallRJAshjianCJHarwoodLAHeide0Joslashrgensen MP2015Ecologicalcharacteristicsofcore0useareasusedbyBeringndashChukchindashBeaufort(BCB)bowheadwhales2006ndash2012ProgressinOceanography1362010222

17

ClarkCWBerchokCLBlackwellSBHannayDEJonesJPonirakisDStafford KM2015AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasProgressinOceanography1362230240 MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationshipbetweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249 GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgressinOceanography1362500262 HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015ChangeintheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE2

Followingthe2015publicationofthefirstSOARspecialissueinProgressinOceanography theSOARprojectSSCandparticipantsdecidedtopursuecoordinatethepublicationofasetofpapersinfullsecondspecialissueThosePhase2topicsandpaperleadswerediscussedat theannualSOARSSCmeetinginJanuary2015Baseduponsuggestionsatthismeeting102pageproposalswererequestedfromsuggestedpaperleadsandproposalswerethen subsequentlydevelopedintopublishedpapersThemajorityofpapersforthesecondspecial issuewerecompletedandinpressbytheendof2017(Table4)withfinalpublicationofthe completespecialissueinDeepSeaResearchIIndashTopicalStudiesinOceanographyexpectedby latesummer2018

Table)4))Papers)to)appear)in)the)SOAR)2nd)Phase)special)issue)published)in)Deep)Sea)Research)Part)II)

Corresponding) Author Manuscript)Title

SueMoore IntroductionTheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)Project

MuyinWang SeaiceandoceancharacteristicsintheChukchiSeabyselectedCMIP5modelsthepresentandthefuture

NicholasBond DiagnosisofphysicaloceanographiceventsintheChukchiSea usinganoceanreanalysis

VictoriaHill DecadaltrendsinphytoplanktonproductioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

18

JessicaCross FormationandtransportofcorrosivewaterinthePacificArcticRegion

LeeCooper DepositionpatternsontheChukchiShelfusingradionuclide inventoriesinrelationtosurfacesedimentcharacteristics

Matthew Druckenmiller

Trendsinsea0icecoverandupwellingpotentialwithinBowheadwhaleuseareasintheWesternArctic

KateStafford AcousticecologyofbowheadandbelugawhalesincoreuseareasintheBeaufortandChukchiSeas

JohnCitta Oceanographiccharacteristicsassociatedwithbowheadwhale movementsintheChukchiSea

JohnCitta SeasonaldistributionandoverlapofmarinemammalsintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseas

KimberlyRand UsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

ElizabethLogerwell Environmentaldriversofbenthicfishdistributioninandaround BarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwesternBeaufortSea

KathleenStafford BelugawhalesintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaasynthesisofavailableinformationontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StephenOkkonen Relationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskanBeaufortSea

MartinRobards UnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesintheAlaskanArcticPlace0basedcollaborationswithAlaskaNative communities

SueMoore TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)ModellinkingtemporalprocessestocontiguousdomainsinthePacificArctic

19

PRESENTATIONSANDPOSTERSATSCIENTIFICMEETINGS

SOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandcontributorsmademorethan50presentationsincludinginformationaboutthissynthesiseffortatavarietyofscientificmeetingsworkshopsandwebinarsAfulllistofthesepresentationsisprovidedinAppendixC

OTHERCOMMUNICATIONOFSYNTHESISAPPROACHANDPRODUCTS

TheSynthesisofArcticResearchwebsitelocatedathttpswwwpmelnoaagovsoar providesbackgroundinformationandup0to0datescienceproductinformationtostakeholders andthegeneralpublicThewebsitewillcontinuetobeliveandhostedbyNOAA

Severalpeer0reviewedpaperswerepublishedthatalsoappealtoamoregeneralortrans0 disciplineaudienceincludingSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)andSheffieldGuyetal(2016)SOARsynthesisresultswerefeaturedinnumerousnewspapersonlinefeaturesmagazines andmore

SYNTHESIS)SUMMARY)AND)DISCUSSION)

SOARPHASEI

ThefirstphaseofSOARresultedinfifteenpaperspublishedinaspecialissueofProgressin Oceanographyin2015(Table3)HereweprovideabroadoverviewanddiscussionofthepapersinthatspecialissuedrawnfromtheIntroductiontothatissue(MooreandStabeno 2015)

1 Introduction)

TheinitiationoftheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)projectcoincidedwiththerecognitionthatbiophysicalchangesinthePacificArcticregionweresoextremecomparedtotherecentpastthattheyacquiredthemonikerlsquonewnormalrsquo(Jeffriesetal2013) ConsequentlydescribingthebiophysicalpropertiesofthelsquonewlsquoPacificArcticmarineecosystemwasfoundationaltotheSOAReffortandthefocusoffivepapersinthefirstspecial issueExaminingbiologicalresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingthenbecamethetaskofresearchersfocusedonthestudyoflowertrophiclevel(LTL)communitiesanduppertrophiclevel(UTL)speciesTwopapersprovideintegratedresultsfromdirectsamplingofbenthic andfishcommunitieswhilethreepapersreportonchangesinLTLspeciesoccurrenceinferredbyshiftsinthedietsofsealsandmarinebirdsSixpapersfocusonUTLspecieswith fourpresentinginformationonseasonaloccurrenceinhotspotorcore0usehabitatsandtwo describingvariabilityinmarinemammalbodyconditioninthecontextofdecadal0scale

20

environmentalvariabilityTogetherthesepapersprovideasyntheticcontexttofocushypothesesunderpinningthenextdecadeofresearchinthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

2)Biophysics)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

ThePacificArcticmarineecosystemiscomprisedofinflowshelves(northernBeringandChukchiseas)coupledtointeriorshelves(EastSiberianandBeaufortseas)withthe contrastingbiophysicsofthesedomainssummarizedinCarmacketal(2006)Circulationon bothinflowandinteriorshelvesislinkedtopan0arcticteleconnectionmechanisms(egArcticOscillation)withinteriorshelvesalsostronglyinfluencedbytheseasonaloutflowof relativelywarmfreshwaterfromarcticriversEvaluatingecosystemstatusandtrendsinthePacificArcticwasthefocusofarecentbookwith10(of12)chaptersdevotedtoobservationsandmodelingoftheatmosphereoceanphysicsandchemistry(GrebmeierandMaslowski 2014)Thepapersinthefirstspecialissueaddtothatbodyofknowledgeespeciallywithregardtobiologicalresponsestobiophysicaldriversandinthiswaycontributetoamore holisticunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

21)PhysicalobservationsandopenwaterprojectionsinthelsquonewnormalrsquoPacificArctic

Recentobservations(200302013)ofenvironmentalchangesinthePacificArcticsupportthecontentionthatanewnormalclimateisemerging(Fig3Jeffriesetal2013Woodetal 2015)

Figure)3))Highlights)of)recent)biophysical)changes)in)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

21

Theiconicindicatorofthischangeisthedramaticsummertimelossofseaice(50byarea75byvolume)whichinsomeyears(eg2012)hasresultedinnearlyice0freeconditionsin theregionSpecificallysatellitedatafrom197902012reveallocalizedchangesinsea0ice occurrenceofupto0164daysyearintheCanadaBasinand0124daysyearintheBeaufort Seawhichacceleratedto0657daysyear(CanadaBasin)and01284daysyear(Beaufort Sea)duringthe200002012period(Freyetal2015)Multiyearseaicehasalmostentirelydisappearedwithinter0annualvariabilityiniceconcentrationlargelydrivenbywindforcing intheBeaufortSeaIntheCanadaBasindifferencesinannualseaiceareprimarilythermallydrivenwhilesea0iceextentisinfluencedbybothwindsandheatontheBeringSeashelf

Thesummeratmosphericpatternsinfluenceoceancirculationfreshwaterpathwaysand movementandmeltingofseaiceDuringthelastdecadetheintensificationoftheBeaufortHigh(OgiandWallace2012)resultedinanomaloussummerwindsTheseanomalouswinds togetherwiththelossofmulti0yeariceweretheprimaryfactorsthattransformedtheChukchiandnorthernBeaufortseasintoanopenwaterenvironment(Woodetal2015)InparticulartheeasternBeaufortSeaappearstobeparticularlysusceptibletoanomalouswindsthrough theireffectontheadvectionofwarmfreshwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumeInadditiontransportanomaliesintheBeringStraitaredeterminedbycompetinglarge0scale atmosphericpatternstheBeaufortHighandAleutianLow(Danielsonetal2014)NotablychangesinBeringStraitflowthroughcanimpacttheworldclimatefarbeyondtheBeringStraitandArcticregion(egHuetal2015)

Freyetal(2015)investigatetheinfluenceofthePacificDecadalOscillation(PDO)andtheArcticOscillation(AO)onthepersistenceofseaiceinsummerandwinterTheyfoundsignificantnegativecorrelationsbetweenseaiceonthesoutheasternBeringSeashelfandthe PDOinwinteraswellassignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweentheAOandsea0icecoverjustsouthofStLawrenceIslandSignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweenthePDOandsea iceintheCanadaBasin0CanadianArchipelagowerefoundinsummeraswellasbetweentheAOandseaiceintheChukchi0BeaufortseasThisnovelinvestigationofteleconnections betweenthePDOtheAOandsea0icecoverprovidesacriticalstepinunderstandinghow globalandregionalclimatepatternsinfluencethephysicsofthePacificArcticregion

Theunprecedentedlossofseaicehasresultedinatremendousincreaseinopen0water susceptibletorapidsolarheatingwithadditionalheatandfreshwaterprovidedbya50 increaseinPacificWaterinflowatBeringStraitfrom200102011(Woodgateetal2012 Woodetal2015)TheinfluenceofincreasedheatstoredintheChukchiandBeaufortseasis notwellunderstoodSuggestionsthatheatreleasedtotheatmosphereinlateautumnandwinterdrivesaspectsofmid0latitudeweatherremainspeculativelargelyduetotheshort timerecordavailable(Woodetal2015)FresheningoftheArcticOceanhasbeenoccurring atleastsincethe1990s(egGilesetal2012)Severalexplanationshavebeenproposed includingincreasedsea0icemeltfresherPacificWaterflowingthroughBeringStraitchanges inthemagnitudeofriverdischargeandthemeanstrengtheningoftheBeaufortHighInrecentyearsrelativelystrongeasterlywindshavebeencommonduetotheArctic0wide

22

patternofcirculationaroundanintensifiedBeaufortHighUndertheseconditionsfreshand warmwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumecanbelaterallytransportedfaroutintothe BeaufortSea(Woodetal2015)

WangandOverland(2015)comparedresultsfromtwelvecoupledclimatemodelstoproducecompositeprojectionsofthedurationofopenwaterintheChukchiandBeaufortseasat decadalintervalsfrom201002050andin2090Forwatersnorthofthe70degNopen0water durationshiftsfrom304monthsin2010toaprojected~5monthsby2040Projectedopen0 waterdurationisaboutonemonthlongeralongthesamelatitudesintheChukchiSeacomparedwiththeBeaufortSeawithuncertaintyofaboutplusmn1monthestimatedfromtherangeofmodelresultsAllmodelsprojectedopen0waterdurationtoexpandquicklyoverthe nextthreedecadeswhichwillimpactregionaleconomicaccessandpotentiallyalterecosystemsYetthePacificArcticregionwillremaincoveredwiththinfirst0yearicefrom JanuarythroughMayintothesecondhalfofthecenturyduetoseasonallackofsunlight

22Changesinprimaryproductionandoceanacidification

Thedramaticlossofsea0iceextentandvolumehasresultedinaconcomitantincreaseinlightpenetrationintheupperoceanacrosstheArcticGiventhethinningandarealreductionof seaiceafundamentalquestionariseshavethesechangesfosteredanincreaseinmarineprimaryproductionSpecificallyisthePacificArcticregionmoreproductivethanitwasthreedecadesagoIntheAtlanticArcticLeuetal(2011)measuredprimaryproductionby bothicealgaeandphytoplanktonincontrastingyears(2007008)ofsea0icecoverinaSvalbardfjordandconcludedthatearliericebreakupcorrespondedwithearlieronsetofa phytoplanktonbloomSimilarlyTremblayetal(2012)reportincreasedprimaryproductionfor2007008associatedwithextremesea0iceretreatsandincreasedupwellingatstations locatedsouthandeastofBanksIslandinthesoutheasternBeaufortSeaButcanconclusions drawnfrommeasurementssorestrictedinspaceandtimebeextrapolatedtolargerarcticregionsUsingsatelliteimageryArrigoandvanDijken(2015)investigatedchangesinseaice atbothregionalandbasinscalesfrom199802012andestimatedhowthesechangeshaveimpactedratesofnetprimaryproduction(NPP)byphytoplanktonTheyreportthatannual NPPincreased30duringthisperiodwiththelargestincreasesontheinteriorshelves (includingtheEastSiberianandBeaufort)andsmallerincreasesoninflowshelves(includingtheChukchi)OutflowshelveseitherexhibitednochangeinannualNPPoradeclineperhaps indicatingthatnutrientshadbeenconsumedfurtherupstreamIncreasedannualNPPwasoftenbutnotalwaysassociatedwithreducedsea0iceextentandresultantlonger phytoplanktongrowingseason

HumanactivitieshaveincreasedtheatmosphericCO2concentrationbyabout40sincethebeginningoftheindustrialageanditisestimatedthattheoceanhasabsorbedmorethan25

23

ofthetotalanthropogenicemissions(Mathisetal2015)TheoceanicuptakeofCO2triggersaseriesofchemicalreactionsinthesurfaceoceanthatreducespHandresultsinocean acidification(OA)InshortOAmakesseawatercorrosivetocalciumcarbonatemineralswhichmanymarineorganismsrelyonforbodystructuresHigh0latitudeoceanshave naturallylowcarbonateconcentrationssoareconsideredtobemorevulnerabletotheimpactsofOAbecauseadditionalcarbonatelossrepresentsamuchgreaterproportionalchangetothesystemInanovelstudyMathisetalprovideariskassessmentofOAimpacts tocommercialandtraditionalfisheriesfocusedonshellfishsalmonandfinfishTheresultant indexsuggeststhatwhilethenorthernBeringSeaisatmediumriskfromOAimpactsto fisheriesPacificArcticwatersnorthoftheSewardPeninsulaarecurrentlyatlowriskduelargelytoalackofdependenceonthesefoodsources

3)Lower)Trophic)Level)Communities)signals)from)direct)and)indirect)sampling

ThepredominantconceptualmodelframinghowmarineecosystemsinthePacificArctic respondtoreducedseaiceisbasedonchangesanticipatedfromashiftinpelagic0benthic coupling(Fig4)

Figure)4))Generalized)conceptual)model)depicting)the)influence)of)sea)ice)on)pelagicVbenthic)coupling)on) Pacific)Arctic)continental)shelves)

24

OnthebroadshelvesthatcomprisemuchofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemnewprimaryproductionfromsea0icealgaeandphytoplanktonbloomsfallstotheseafloortosupportrich benthiccommunities(Grebmeier2012)Asseaicethinsandretreatsearlierintheseasonitisanticipatedthatearlierandlargerphytoplanktonbloomswillswitchfromabenthic0 dominatedtoapelagic0dominatedmarineecosystemThisshiftwillcascadethroughthesystemsupportingnovelcommunitiesofsecondaryandtertiaryconsumers(zooplanktonandforagefishes)anduppertrophiclevelmarinebirdsandmammalsIndeedGrebmeieret al(2006)suggestedthatthistypeofecosystemshiftisalreadyunderwayinthemarinecommunitiesofthenorthernBeringSeaThePacificArcticisoftendescribedasabenthic0 dominatedmarineecosystemonethatdoesnotsupportalargebiomassorspeciesdiversityoffishesAdescriptionofconditionsthathavefosteredexistingbenthichotspotsoffersa solidfoundationforassessingfuturechangeswhileanaccountingoftheexistingcommunitiesofmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsprovidesastartingpointuponwhichtobuildalong0termrecord)

31Benthichotspotsandmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitats

ArecordofextantconditionsiskeytointerpretingmarineecosystemresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingnowevidentinthePacificArcticSucharecordexistsforfourbenthic lsquohotspotrsquocommunitiesinthenorthernBeringandChukchiseas(Grebmeieretal2015a)but notformarinefishesLong0termsamplingofbenthicmacrofaunalcommunitiesindicatesthatthebenthichotspotshavemaintainedconsistentlyhighbiomassforuptofourdecadesdueto reoccurrenceofseasonallyreliablemoderate0to0highwatercolumnproductioncoupledwithexportofcarbonfromoverlyingwaterstotheseafloorUppertrophiclevelbenthivorestargetpreyaggregationsineachofthehotspotsOverallbottom0upforcingbyhydrography andfoodsupplytothebenthosinfluencespersistenceandcompositionofbenthicpreywhichinturninfluencestheuppertrophiclevelspeciescompositionandseasonaloccurrence Whenconsistentlysampledintandemthesebenthos0benthivoreconnectionscanfacilitate useofUTLspeciesassentinelsofshiftsinpreycompositionandabundance(Mooreetal2014)

Sincethe2000stherehavebeenahostofArcticmarinefishsurveysintheChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasprecipitatedbybothscientificinterestintheimpactsofclimatechangeandcommercialinterestinoilandgasdevelopment(Logerwelletal2015)Resultsfrom thesesurveysprovideanovelopportunitytocompareArcticfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsrangingfromlagoonsandbeachestobenthicandpelagiccontinental shelfwatersAsynthesisofdatafromthesesurveysrevealedmoresimilaritiesthandifferencesinhabitatusebetweenthetwoseasForexamplenearshorehabitatisusedbyallageclassesofforagefishesandisalsoanurseryareaforotherspeciesinboththeChukchiand westernBeaufortseasNotablysomecommercialspeciesmaybeexpandingtheirrangenorthtothesewatersincludingchinooksalmon(Oncorhynchustshawytscha)walleyepollock (Gaduschalcogrammus)andflatfishes(Pleuronectidae)Inadditionasynthesisofinformationonrelativeabundanceandageofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)andsaffroncod

25

(Eleginusgracilis)bothkeypreyspeciesinArcticfoodwebssupportedthedevelopmentoflifehistoryanddistributionmodelsthatwillinformfutureresearchontrophicdynamicsin thePacificArcticsector

32Inferencesofmarineecosystemshiftsfromsealsseabirdsandseaducks

Additionalinformationregardingtheimpactoflsquonewnormalrsquobiophysicalconditionsonlowertrophiclevelspeciescanbeinferredfromshiftsinthedietandbodyconditionofmarine mammalsandbirdsCrawfordetal(2015)comparedthedietandconditionofringedseals(Pusahispida)andbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)harvestedintheAlaskanBeringand Chukchiseasduringhistorical(197501984)andrecent(200302012)periodsTheyfoundthe proportionoffishinthedietofbothspeciesincreasedintherecentreduced0iceperiodcomparedtothehistoricalperiodInadditionringedsealsgrewfasterhadthickerblubber andmaturedtwoyearsearlierBeardedsealshadthickerblubberintherecentperiodbut didnotmanifesttheotherchangesreportedfortheringedsealsAlthoughanumberofthe comparisonswerenotstatisticallysignificanttakentogethertheseobservationssuggestgreaterfishavailabilityintheAlaskanBering0Chukchimarineecosystemsupportinggood bodyconditionintheseals

AsinthesealpaperDivokyetal(2015)parsedalong0termdatasetintorecent(200302012)andhistorical(197501984)periodstocompareoceanographicconditionsnestlingdietandfledgingsuccessatablackguillemot(Cepphusgryllemandtii)breedingcolonyinthewestern BeaufortSeaFrom15Julyto1Septemberseaiceretreatedanaverageof18kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof958kmfromthecolonyduringthehistoricalperiodwhileinthe recentperiodiceretreataveraged98kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof5069kmSeasurfacetemperaturenearthecolonyincreasedby29⁰CbetweenthetwoperiodsWhileArcticcodcomprisedover95ofthepreyprovidedtonestlingsinthehistoricalperiodthis proportiondecreasedtolt5ofthenestlingdietduringmostyearsintherecentperiodwhendemersalsculpin(Cottidae)comprisedthemajorityofthedietTheshiftawayfrom Arcticcodwasassociatedwithafive0foldincreaseintherateofnestlingstarvationand reductionsinnestlinggrowthandfledgingmassConverselyannualadultsurvivalduringthe nonbreedingseason(September0May)showednosignificantdifferencebetweenthetwo periodssuggestingnochangeintheavailabilityofArcticcodorinoverallpreyavailabilityto blackguillemotsintheirBeringSeawinteringarea

IncontrasttoarelianceonpelagicpreyLovvornetal(2015)investigatedpotentialclimate0 relatedlimitstobenthicfeedingbyseaducksalongtheirmigrationcorridorinthenortheasternChukchiSeaKingeiders(Somateriaspectabilis)primarilyeatclams(bivalves) duringmigrationandrecentsamplinghasshownthatdenseclamassemblagesoccuronlyinspecificlocationsalongthemigrationcorridorSeaicecanpreventeidersfromreachingtheseprimefeedingsiteswithsatellitedataforApril‒May(2001‒2013)showingthataccess canvaryfrom0‒100InawarmingandincreasinglyvariableclimateaccesstobenthicfeedingsitesmaybefurthererodedbytheeffectsofwindsonunconsolidatediceThese

26

resultsunderscoretheimportanceofmaintainingarangeofbenthicfeedingareasthroughoutthemigrationcorridortoensurepreyavailabilitytotheeiderseachyear)

4)Upper)Trophic)Level)Species)marine)birds)and)mammals)as)ecosystem)sentinels

Astoppredatorsmarinebirdsandmammalsmustadapttochangesintheirhabitatsresultingfromphysicalforcingandtherebycanserveassentinelstoecosystemshifts(Mooreetal2014MooreandGulland2014)ResponsesofUTLspeciestoalteredhabitatscanbe categorizedasextrinsicincludingshiftsinrangemigratorytiming(phenology)orregionsofhighabundance(hotspots)orintrinsicincludingchangesindietbodyconditionand chemicalcomposition(Fig5)

Figure)5)Marine)birds)and)mammals)are)upper)trophic)level)(UTL))species)that)reflect)ecosystem) alterations)by)changes)in)habitat)use)(extrinsic))and)body)condition)(intrinsic))revealing)fundamental) changes)in)marine)ecosystems)

Responsesareinter0relatedsuchthatashiftinrangephenologyoruseofhotspotswillbe reflectedinchangesindietbodyconditionandchemistryItisthisconnectionthatallowsus

27

todetectecosystemreorganizationbytrackingchangesintheecologyandphysiologyofUTL speciesAlthoughtherehavebeennocoordinatedlong0termstudiesofUTLspeciesinthe PacificArcticexaminingthisconnectionasynthesisofinformationfromvisualsurveyssatellitetaggingofindividualsandyear0roundacousticdetectionsprovidesanecological foundationthatcanprovideabaselinetoinformfutureinvestigations

41Seasonaloccurrencehotspothabitatsandacousticecology

Kuletzetal(2015)depictspatialpatternsofrelativeabundanceofseabirdsandmarinemammalsinsummerandfallderivedfromsixyearsofvisualsurveysintheeasternChukchi andwesternBeaufortseasUsingstatisticalspatialanalysistoolshotspotsforseabirdswalrusandgraywhaleswereidentifiedintheChukchiSeawhilehotspotsforbowheadwhalesandsealsweredescribednearBarrowCanyonandalongtheBeaufortSeashelfand slopeHotspotsforbelugasoccurredinboththeChukchiandBeaufortseasInsummerthreehotspotsweresharedbybothseabirdsandmarinemammalsintheChukchiSeawaters offshoreWainwrightsouthofHannaShoalandatthemouthofBarrowCanyonOnlytheBarrowCanyonhotspotwasoccupiedthroughthefallSharedhotspotswerecharacterized bystrongfrontscausedbyupwellingandcurrentswhichcanservetoaggregatepreyUsingadifferentapproachCittaetal(2015)providedetailedanalysisoftheseasonalmovementsandhabitatusebyasinglespeciesthroughoutoneyearLocationsfrom54bowheadwhales (Balaenamysticetus)obtainedbysatellitetelemetryfrom200602012wereusedtoidentifya totalofsixcore0useareasintheBeaufort(3)Chukchi(1)andnorthernBering(2)seas Takentogetherthetimingofuse(phenology)andphysicalcharacteristics(oceanographyseaiceandwinds)associatedwitheachareadescribeaseasonalcircuitbythewhalesthroughareasthoughttosupportelevatedpreydensities

Passiveacousticsamplinghasbecomeacommonyear0roundtooltodetectcallingmarine mammalsinarcticseas(Mooreetal2006Staffordetal2012)Since2007therehasbeenanespeciallystrongsamplingeffortassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationinthenortheast ChukchiandwesternBeaufortseas(egHannayetal2013 httpwwwafscnoaagovnmmlcetaceanchaozphp)Theserecorderdeployments augmentalong0standingacousticstudyinthecentralBeaufortSea(Blackwelletal2007)andmorerecentdeploymentsintheBeringStraitregion(KStaffordperscomm)HeretoforeresearchersconductedeachofthesestudiesindependentlyofoneanotherClark etal(2015)presentsanovelsynthesisofthecombinedoutputfromsixresearcheffortsusingfourtypesofrecordersandavarietyofsub0samplingandanalysisschemestodescribean lsquoacousticyearrsquointhelifeofthebowheadwhaleDetectionsofbowheadcallsfrom20sitesextendingover2300kmfromthenorthernBeringSeatothesoutheastBeaufortSeawere combinedovera140monthperiod(200902010)todescribewhaleoccurrenceacrosstheir rangeThespatialandtemporalvariabilityinsoundlevelswithinthefrequencybandofbowheadwhaleswasalsoquantifiedThelowestunderwatersoundlevelsoccurredfromlate NovemberuntilMayintheChukchiSeaDuringwinter200902010singingbowheadwhaleselevatedbroadbandsoundlevelsforroughly38daysinthenorthernBeringSeafollowedby

28

asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

29

ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

31

Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

32

(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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CittaJJOkkonenSRQuakenbushLTMaslowskiWOsinskiRGeorgeJCSmallRJ BrowerJrHHeide0JoslashrgensenMPHarwoodLAinpressaOceanographiccharacteristicsassociatedwithautumnmovementsofbowheadwhalesintheChukchi Sea

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DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarcticsea iceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161

DruckenmillerMLCittaJJFergusonMCClarkeJTGeorgeJCQuakenbushLinpressTrendsinsea0icecoverwithinbowheadwhalehabitatsinthePacificArctic

47

DuntonKHGrebmeierJM andTrefry JH2017HannaShoalAnintegrativestudyofaHighArcticmarineecosystemintheChukchiSeaDeepSeaResearchPartIIDOI 101016jdsr2201709001

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FeelyRADoneySCCooleySR2009Oceanacidificationpresentconditionsandfuture changesinahigh0CO2worldOceanography2236047

FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015DivergentpatternsofrecentseaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049

GeorgeJCBadaJZehJScottLBrownSEOharaTampSuydamR1999Ageandgrowthestimatesofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)viaasparticacid racemizationCanadianJournalofZoology775710580

GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgress inOceanography1362500262

GilesKALaxonSWRidoutALWinghamDJBaconS2012WesternArcticOceanfreshwaterstorageincreasedbywind0drivenspin0upoftheBeaufortGyreNature Geoscience51940197

GrebmeierJMOverlandJEMooreSEFarleyEVCarmackECCooperLWFreyKEHelleJHMcLaughlinFAMcNuttSL2006AmajorecosystemshiftinthenorthernBeringSeaScience311146101464

GrebmeierJM2012ShiftingpatternsoflifeinthePacificArcticandsub0arcticseasAnnual ReviewofMarineScience41610166

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GrebmeierJMMooreSE Overland JEFrey KEandGradinger R2010BiologicalresponsetorecentPacificArcticseaiceretreatsEOS91(18)1610168

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HillVArdynaMLeeSHVarelaDEinpressDecadaltrendsinphytoplankton productioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

preferenceandbehaviorinthenortheasternChukchiSea1982084RepIntWhale Commn362730279

MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

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Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 11: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

v deriveameanstoarchivedataandmeta0datausedinsupportofthesynthesis 3 supportAnalyticalTeamdataintegrationandanalysisincludingtheme0based

meetingsasneeded 4 trackprogressofanalyticalworkviabi0monthlyteleconferencesandannualSCCAT0

updateworkshops 5 producescienceproductsincludingpresentationsatprofessionalmeetingsand

publicationofpeer0reviewedpapersasaSpecialIssueamporThemeSectionsinanappropriatescientificjournaland

6 communicatesynthesisapproachandfindingstolocalArcticresidentsresourcemanagersnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

TASKDETAIL

TASK)1)))ESTABLISH)AND)CONVENE)SCIENTIFIC)STEERING)COMMITTEE)

LeadershipandguidanceofthesynthesisprojectwasprovidedbyaScienceSteeringCommittee(SSC)formedofseniorscientistswithdecades0longexperienceinthePacific ArcticAttheinitialSSCmeetingthegroupidentifiedrelevantprojectsdeveloped provisionalsciencethemesandidentifiedpotentialparticipantsandleadersfor interdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeamsformedatthesubsequentSOARWorkshop

TASK)2)))PLAN)AND)CONDUCT)SOAR)WORKSHOP)

Amulti0disciplinarySOARWorkshopwasthekeystoneinitialproductofSOARWorkshop participantsinventoriedavailabledataandevaluateditssufficiencytoaddressspecificcross0 disciplinaryhypothesesandquestionsprovisionallyidentifiedassciencethemesbytheSSCTheprovisionallistofthemeswasmodifiedandnewthemesemergedattheworkshopOnce sciencethemeswereagreeduponinterdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeams(AT)wereformedto conductthecoreworkoftheSOARprojectInterdisciplinaryATstheninitiatedthe developmentofshortproposalstosupporttheworkrequiredfordataintegrationanalyses andormodeling

TASK)3))SUPPORT)DATA)INTEGRATION)ANALYSIS)AND)MODELING

Inresponsetoproposalsdetailingtheworktobeperformedtimelineandproducts anticipatedmdashandincoordinationwithSSCreviewmdashfundingwasprovidedviacontractfor selectedATstointegratedataconductanalysesrunmodelsandordeveloppublicationsInsomecasesdirectfundingwasnotneededandin0kindsupportwasprovidedintheformofreviewcoordinationandpublicationfacilitationAsubsetofATsintegratedtheirworkwith

11

on0goingoceanographicprograms(egRUSALCAandtheDistributedBiologicalObservatory[DBO])andinsomecasestheATsconductedfollow0ontheme0basedmeetingsorintegrativeworkshopsasthebestmeanstoaccomplishdataintegrationandsynthesisontheirtopic OtherATschosetointegratetheirworkviavideoorteleconferenceswiththebulkofcontract fundinggoingtowardssupportforagraduatestudentpost0docorotherresearcherto accomplishthesynthesistasksidentified)

TASK)4))TRACK)PROGRESS)OF)ANALYTICAL)WORK)

ATleadshadprimaryresponsibilityfortrackingtheprogressofworkontheirsciencethemeandmembersoftheSSCwerealsoaskedtofollowtheprogressoftheworktowardsuseful productsTrackingtooktheformofcontactatregularintervals(egbimonthly)viae0mailorphonesolicitingspecificinformationonproblemsencounteredandadherencetotimelineforproductcompletionSummariesofprogressoneachthemeappearedinQuarterlyReportsto theBOEM

TASK)5))SCIENCE)PRODUCTS))

ThecoreproductoftheSOARprojectwasaseriesofsciencepresentationsandpeer0reviewedpapersdescribingcurrentandprojectedstatusofthePARmarineecosystemAnnual presentationsontheapproachandprogressoftheSOARwereprovidedatplenarysessionsof theAlaskaMarineScienceSymposiumandadditionalpresentationsweremadeatother sciencevenuessuchastheAGUOceanSciencesmeetingSciencepaperswerethenpublishedinspecialissuesofpeer0reviewedjournalswiththeprojectPIsandcoordinatorservingas GuestEditors

TASK)6))COMMUNICATION)OF)SYNTHESIS)APPROACH)amp)PRODUCTS)

Inadditiontosciencepapersandpresentationsresultsofthesyntheseswereprovidedto communitiesinelectronicandhardcopyformatandopportunitiestospeakwithArcticresidentsweresoughtatco0managementmeetingsandotherforaAwebsitewasdeveloped providinggraphicsandbriefsummariesforgeneraluseandlinkingtootherrelevantsitesResultsofthesynthesiswerecommunicatedtovariousnationalandinternationalArctic Programs(egNOAAArcticReportCardSEARCHISACPAGIASCandArcticCouncilWorkingGroups)

12

SOARPHASE1ANDSOARPHASE2

Task5(ScienceProducts)wasoriginallyenvisagedtoresultinaspecialvolumeofpeer0reviewedpaperspossiblysupplementedbyanadditionalsmallersetofpapersinatheme sectionorothersimilaroutletHoweverfollowingcompletionofthefirstphaseofSOARculminatinginthe2015specialissueofProgressinOceanography(MooreandStabeno2015 seeResultssectionbelowformoreinformation)therewasahighlevelofinterestinextendingSOARtoincludeadditionalsynthesisThereforethesecondphaseofSOARwas developedbuildingfromaninformalmid0projectworkshopandresultinginasecondfullspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchIIFurtherdetailisprovidedinthefollowingsections

RESULTS)

FOUNDATIONALTASKSSCIENCESTEERINGCOMMITTEEANDWORKSHOP

THESOARSCIENCESTEERINGCOMMITTEE

AScienceSteeringCommittee(SCC)comprisedofscientistsandAlaskancoastalcommunityrepresentativeswasestablished(Table1)ThefirstoffiveannualSSCmeetingswasheldfrom103November2011attheWatertownHotelinSeattleWATheSSCidentifiedrelevantprojects anddatasourcesdevelopedthreedraftsciencethemesandrelatedquestionsandidentified potentialparticipantsandleadersforassociatedinterdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeamsthatwould beformedatSOARScienceWorkshopMultiplesubsequentmeetingsfurtherdevelopedthe sciencethemesandprovidedguidanceforSOARtasks(Table2)

)

Table)1))List)of)Science)Steering)Committee)members)and)institutions)

ScienceSteeringCommitteeMember

Affiliation Location

RobynAngliss NOAANationalMarineMammalLaboratory

SeattleWA

CarinAshjian WoodsHoleOceanographic Institution

WoodsHoleMA

ChristopherClark CornellUniversity IthacaNY

13

JacquelineGrebmeier UniversityofMarylandCenterforEnvironmental Studies

SolomonsMD

CraigGeorge NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EskimoWhaling

ComissionKawerak NomeAK

SueMoore NOAANMFS SeattleWA ChadJay USGeologicalSurvey AnchorageAK TimRagan MarineMammalCommission WashingtonDC PhyllisStabeno NOAAPMEL SeattleWA RobertSuydam NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK TomWeingartner UniversityofAlaska0

Fairbanks FairbanksAK

)

Table)2)List)of)SOAR)SSC)Teleconferences)and)inVperson)meetings)

SOAR)SSC)Meeting) SSCTeleconference1

Date) 21September2011

SSCTeleconference2 18October2011 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingSeattleWA 11November2011 SSCTeleconference3 16February2012 SSCTeleconference4 6April2012 SOARMarchWorkshop 14016March2012 SSCTeleconference5 6July2012 SSCTeleconference6 6October2012 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 21January2013 SSCTeleconference7) 9April2013 SSCTeleconference8) 14November2013 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 20January2014 SSCTeleconference9) 12January2015 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 23January2015 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK(informal)) 26January2016

SOARWORKSHOPndashMARCH2012

TheSOARScienceWorkshopwasheldfrom14016March2012attheEganCenterinAnchorageAlaskaTheSOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandProjectCoordinatorallmembersoftheScienceSteeringCommitteeand42ofthe43invitedSOARContributorsattendedthe

14

workshopDraftScienceThemesandQuestionsdevelopedbytheSOARScienceSteeringCommitteewereprovidedtoparticipantsinadvanceoftheworkshopsummarizedas(i)EcosystemResponsetoBottom0upandorTop0downForcing(ii)MarineBirdsMammalsandFishasEcosystemSentinelsand(iii)AcousticEcology

TheprimarygoalsoftheScienceWorkshopwereto(1)refinetheDraftScienceThemesandQuestions(2)formresearchteamstoundertakeanalysisinsupportofdevelopmentofpeer0reviewedpapersand(3)developshortproposalstoidentifyprojectmilestonesandfinancialsupportrequiredtocompletesyntheticprojects

DayoneoftheworkshopconsistedofdisciplinarytalksinplenarysessiontoprovideallparticipantswiththecurrentstateofknowledgeineachareaofstudyDuringdaytwooftheworkshopsciencethemeswererevisedtoreflectgroupinputParticipantsdividedintothree theme0basedbreakoutgroupsandbegandevelopingsciencequestionstoproposeforSOARDaythreeoftheworkshopbeganwithaplenarysummaryofthepreviousdayrsquosprogress followedbybreakoutgroupstowriteandsubmitone0pageproposalsfortheprojects requestingfundingOntheafternoonofthethirddayanopen0sessionwasheldto communicateworkshopprogresstoBOEMscientistsandmanagerscolleaguesfromtheNorthPacificResearchBoardandAlaskaOceanObservingSystemindustryrepresentativesand otherinterestedpartiesFurtherdetailsoftheSOARWorkshopcanbefoundintheSOAR WorkshopReport(SheffieldGuyetal2012a)andseealsoSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)

15

SCIENCEPRODUCTANDCOMMUNICATIONTASKS

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE1 FollowingtheinitialSOARthemeselectionsandteamdevelopmentandincorporatinganextensivepeer0reviewphaseledbytheprojectPIsandcoordinatorthefirstphaseofthe SOARprojectculminatedinaspecialvolumeofProgressinOceanographypublishedinAugust 2015(Fig2Table3)Thisspecialissueincluded16fullpapersplusanintroductionpaper authoredbythetwoprojectPIs

Figure)2)Cover)of)the)first)SOAR)special) volume)published)in)Progress)in)

Oceanography)in)2015)

16

Table)3))Papers)included)in)the)2015)SOAR)special)issue)of)Progress)in)Oceanography)

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsofthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011 WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressinOceanography13612031 FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015Divergentpatternsofrecent seaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049 WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059 ArrigoKRvanDijkenGL2015ContinuedincreasesinArcticOceanprimaryproductionProgressinOceanography13660070 MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJNFeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091 GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarkeJTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSHLovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015EcosystemcharacteristicsandprocessesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114 LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132 CrawfordJAQuakenbushLTCittaJJ2015Acomparisonofringedandbeardedsealdietconditionandproductivitybetweenhistorical(1975ndash1984)andrecent(2003ndash2012)periodsintheAlaskanBeringandChukchiseasProgressinOceanography1361330150 DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarctic seaiceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161 LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015LimitstobenthicfeedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchangingseaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174 KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015SeasonalspatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareas ProgressinOceanography1361750200 CittaJJQuakenbushLTOkkonenSRDruckenmillerMLMaslowskiWClement0KinneyJGeorgeJCBrowerHSmallRJAshjianCJHarwoodLAHeide0Joslashrgensen MP2015Ecologicalcharacteristicsofcore0useareasusedbyBeringndashChukchindashBeaufort(BCB)bowheadwhales2006ndash2012ProgressinOceanography1362010222

17

ClarkCWBerchokCLBlackwellSBHannayDEJonesJPonirakisDStafford KM2015AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasProgressinOceanography1362230240 MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationshipbetweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249 GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgressinOceanography1362500262 HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015ChangeintheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE2

Followingthe2015publicationofthefirstSOARspecialissueinProgressinOceanography theSOARprojectSSCandparticipantsdecidedtopursuecoordinatethepublicationofasetofpapersinfullsecondspecialissueThosePhase2topicsandpaperleadswerediscussedat theannualSOARSSCmeetinginJanuary2015Baseduponsuggestionsatthismeeting102pageproposalswererequestedfromsuggestedpaperleadsandproposalswerethen subsequentlydevelopedintopublishedpapersThemajorityofpapersforthesecondspecial issuewerecompletedandinpressbytheendof2017(Table4)withfinalpublicationofthe completespecialissueinDeepSeaResearchIIndashTopicalStudiesinOceanographyexpectedby latesummer2018

Table)4))Papers)to)appear)in)the)SOAR)2nd)Phase)special)issue)published)in)Deep)Sea)Research)Part)II)

Corresponding) Author Manuscript)Title

SueMoore IntroductionTheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)Project

MuyinWang SeaiceandoceancharacteristicsintheChukchiSeabyselectedCMIP5modelsthepresentandthefuture

NicholasBond DiagnosisofphysicaloceanographiceventsintheChukchiSea usinganoceanreanalysis

VictoriaHill DecadaltrendsinphytoplanktonproductioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

18

JessicaCross FormationandtransportofcorrosivewaterinthePacificArcticRegion

LeeCooper DepositionpatternsontheChukchiShelfusingradionuclide inventoriesinrelationtosurfacesedimentcharacteristics

Matthew Druckenmiller

Trendsinsea0icecoverandupwellingpotentialwithinBowheadwhaleuseareasintheWesternArctic

KateStafford AcousticecologyofbowheadandbelugawhalesincoreuseareasintheBeaufortandChukchiSeas

JohnCitta Oceanographiccharacteristicsassociatedwithbowheadwhale movementsintheChukchiSea

JohnCitta SeasonaldistributionandoverlapofmarinemammalsintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseas

KimberlyRand UsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

ElizabethLogerwell Environmentaldriversofbenthicfishdistributioninandaround BarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwesternBeaufortSea

KathleenStafford BelugawhalesintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaasynthesisofavailableinformationontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StephenOkkonen Relationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskanBeaufortSea

MartinRobards UnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesintheAlaskanArcticPlace0basedcollaborationswithAlaskaNative communities

SueMoore TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)ModellinkingtemporalprocessestocontiguousdomainsinthePacificArctic

19

PRESENTATIONSANDPOSTERSATSCIENTIFICMEETINGS

SOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandcontributorsmademorethan50presentationsincludinginformationaboutthissynthesiseffortatavarietyofscientificmeetingsworkshopsandwebinarsAfulllistofthesepresentationsisprovidedinAppendixC

OTHERCOMMUNICATIONOFSYNTHESISAPPROACHANDPRODUCTS

TheSynthesisofArcticResearchwebsitelocatedathttpswwwpmelnoaagovsoar providesbackgroundinformationandup0to0datescienceproductinformationtostakeholders andthegeneralpublicThewebsitewillcontinuetobeliveandhostedbyNOAA

Severalpeer0reviewedpaperswerepublishedthatalsoappealtoamoregeneralortrans0 disciplineaudienceincludingSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)andSheffieldGuyetal(2016)SOARsynthesisresultswerefeaturedinnumerousnewspapersonlinefeaturesmagazines andmore

SYNTHESIS)SUMMARY)AND)DISCUSSION)

SOARPHASEI

ThefirstphaseofSOARresultedinfifteenpaperspublishedinaspecialissueofProgressin Oceanographyin2015(Table3)HereweprovideabroadoverviewanddiscussionofthepapersinthatspecialissuedrawnfromtheIntroductiontothatissue(MooreandStabeno 2015)

1 Introduction)

TheinitiationoftheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)projectcoincidedwiththerecognitionthatbiophysicalchangesinthePacificArcticregionweresoextremecomparedtotherecentpastthattheyacquiredthemonikerlsquonewnormalrsquo(Jeffriesetal2013) ConsequentlydescribingthebiophysicalpropertiesofthelsquonewlsquoPacificArcticmarineecosystemwasfoundationaltotheSOAReffortandthefocusoffivepapersinthefirstspecial issueExaminingbiologicalresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingthenbecamethetaskofresearchersfocusedonthestudyoflowertrophiclevel(LTL)communitiesanduppertrophiclevel(UTL)speciesTwopapersprovideintegratedresultsfromdirectsamplingofbenthic andfishcommunitieswhilethreepapersreportonchangesinLTLspeciesoccurrenceinferredbyshiftsinthedietsofsealsandmarinebirdsSixpapersfocusonUTLspecieswith fourpresentinginformationonseasonaloccurrenceinhotspotorcore0usehabitatsandtwo describingvariabilityinmarinemammalbodyconditioninthecontextofdecadal0scale

20

environmentalvariabilityTogetherthesepapersprovideasyntheticcontexttofocushypothesesunderpinningthenextdecadeofresearchinthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

2)Biophysics)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

ThePacificArcticmarineecosystemiscomprisedofinflowshelves(northernBeringandChukchiseas)coupledtointeriorshelves(EastSiberianandBeaufortseas)withthe contrastingbiophysicsofthesedomainssummarizedinCarmacketal(2006)Circulationon bothinflowandinteriorshelvesislinkedtopan0arcticteleconnectionmechanisms(egArcticOscillation)withinteriorshelvesalsostronglyinfluencedbytheseasonaloutflowof relativelywarmfreshwaterfromarcticriversEvaluatingecosystemstatusandtrendsinthePacificArcticwasthefocusofarecentbookwith10(of12)chaptersdevotedtoobservationsandmodelingoftheatmosphereoceanphysicsandchemistry(GrebmeierandMaslowski 2014)Thepapersinthefirstspecialissueaddtothatbodyofknowledgeespeciallywithregardtobiologicalresponsestobiophysicaldriversandinthiswaycontributetoamore holisticunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

21)PhysicalobservationsandopenwaterprojectionsinthelsquonewnormalrsquoPacificArctic

Recentobservations(200302013)ofenvironmentalchangesinthePacificArcticsupportthecontentionthatanewnormalclimateisemerging(Fig3Jeffriesetal2013Woodetal 2015)

Figure)3))Highlights)of)recent)biophysical)changes)in)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

21

Theiconicindicatorofthischangeisthedramaticsummertimelossofseaice(50byarea75byvolume)whichinsomeyears(eg2012)hasresultedinnearlyice0freeconditionsin theregionSpecificallysatellitedatafrom197902012reveallocalizedchangesinsea0ice occurrenceofupto0164daysyearintheCanadaBasinand0124daysyearintheBeaufort Seawhichacceleratedto0657daysyear(CanadaBasin)and01284daysyear(Beaufort Sea)duringthe200002012period(Freyetal2015)Multiyearseaicehasalmostentirelydisappearedwithinter0annualvariabilityiniceconcentrationlargelydrivenbywindforcing intheBeaufortSeaIntheCanadaBasindifferencesinannualseaiceareprimarilythermallydrivenwhilesea0iceextentisinfluencedbybothwindsandheatontheBeringSeashelf

Thesummeratmosphericpatternsinfluenceoceancirculationfreshwaterpathwaysand movementandmeltingofseaiceDuringthelastdecadetheintensificationoftheBeaufortHigh(OgiandWallace2012)resultedinanomaloussummerwindsTheseanomalouswinds togetherwiththelossofmulti0yeariceweretheprimaryfactorsthattransformedtheChukchiandnorthernBeaufortseasintoanopenwaterenvironment(Woodetal2015)InparticulartheeasternBeaufortSeaappearstobeparticularlysusceptibletoanomalouswindsthrough theireffectontheadvectionofwarmfreshwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumeInadditiontransportanomaliesintheBeringStraitaredeterminedbycompetinglarge0scale atmosphericpatternstheBeaufortHighandAleutianLow(Danielsonetal2014)NotablychangesinBeringStraitflowthroughcanimpacttheworldclimatefarbeyondtheBeringStraitandArcticregion(egHuetal2015)

Freyetal(2015)investigatetheinfluenceofthePacificDecadalOscillation(PDO)andtheArcticOscillation(AO)onthepersistenceofseaiceinsummerandwinterTheyfoundsignificantnegativecorrelationsbetweenseaiceonthesoutheasternBeringSeashelfandthe PDOinwinteraswellassignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweentheAOandsea0icecoverjustsouthofStLawrenceIslandSignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweenthePDOandsea iceintheCanadaBasin0CanadianArchipelagowerefoundinsummeraswellasbetweentheAOandseaiceintheChukchi0BeaufortseasThisnovelinvestigationofteleconnections betweenthePDOtheAOandsea0icecoverprovidesacriticalstepinunderstandinghow globalandregionalclimatepatternsinfluencethephysicsofthePacificArcticregion

Theunprecedentedlossofseaicehasresultedinatremendousincreaseinopen0water susceptibletorapidsolarheatingwithadditionalheatandfreshwaterprovidedbya50 increaseinPacificWaterinflowatBeringStraitfrom200102011(Woodgateetal2012 Woodetal2015)TheinfluenceofincreasedheatstoredintheChukchiandBeaufortseasis notwellunderstoodSuggestionsthatheatreleasedtotheatmosphereinlateautumnandwinterdrivesaspectsofmid0latitudeweatherremainspeculativelargelyduetotheshort timerecordavailable(Woodetal2015)FresheningoftheArcticOceanhasbeenoccurring atleastsincethe1990s(egGilesetal2012)Severalexplanationshavebeenproposed includingincreasedsea0icemeltfresherPacificWaterflowingthroughBeringStraitchanges inthemagnitudeofriverdischargeandthemeanstrengtheningoftheBeaufortHighInrecentyearsrelativelystrongeasterlywindshavebeencommonduetotheArctic0wide

22

patternofcirculationaroundanintensifiedBeaufortHighUndertheseconditionsfreshand warmwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumecanbelaterallytransportedfaroutintothe BeaufortSea(Woodetal2015)

WangandOverland(2015)comparedresultsfromtwelvecoupledclimatemodelstoproducecompositeprojectionsofthedurationofopenwaterintheChukchiandBeaufortseasat decadalintervalsfrom201002050andin2090Forwatersnorthofthe70degNopen0water durationshiftsfrom304monthsin2010toaprojected~5monthsby2040Projectedopen0 waterdurationisaboutonemonthlongeralongthesamelatitudesintheChukchiSeacomparedwiththeBeaufortSeawithuncertaintyofaboutplusmn1monthestimatedfromtherangeofmodelresultsAllmodelsprojectedopen0waterdurationtoexpandquicklyoverthe nextthreedecadeswhichwillimpactregionaleconomicaccessandpotentiallyalterecosystemsYetthePacificArcticregionwillremaincoveredwiththinfirst0yearicefrom JanuarythroughMayintothesecondhalfofthecenturyduetoseasonallackofsunlight

22Changesinprimaryproductionandoceanacidification

Thedramaticlossofsea0iceextentandvolumehasresultedinaconcomitantincreaseinlightpenetrationintheupperoceanacrosstheArcticGiventhethinningandarealreductionof seaiceafundamentalquestionariseshavethesechangesfosteredanincreaseinmarineprimaryproductionSpecificallyisthePacificArcticregionmoreproductivethanitwasthreedecadesagoIntheAtlanticArcticLeuetal(2011)measuredprimaryproductionby bothicealgaeandphytoplanktonincontrastingyears(2007008)ofsea0icecoverinaSvalbardfjordandconcludedthatearliericebreakupcorrespondedwithearlieronsetofa phytoplanktonbloomSimilarlyTremblayetal(2012)reportincreasedprimaryproductionfor2007008associatedwithextremesea0iceretreatsandincreasedupwellingatstations locatedsouthandeastofBanksIslandinthesoutheasternBeaufortSeaButcanconclusions drawnfrommeasurementssorestrictedinspaceandtimebeextrapolatedtolargerarcticregionsUsingsatelliteimageryArrigoandvanDijken(2015)investigatedchangesinseaice atbothregionalandbasinscalesfrom199802012andestimatedhowthesechangeshaveimpactedratesofnetprimaryproduction(NPP)byphytoplanktonTheyreportthatannual NPPincreased30duringthisperiodwiththelargestincreasesontheinteriorshelves (includingtheEastSiberianandBeaufort)andsmallerincreasesoninflowshelves(includingtheChukchi)OutflowshelveseitherexhibitednochangeinannualNPPoradeclineperhaps indicatingthatnutrientshadbeenconsumedfurtherupstreamIncreasedannualNPPwasoftenbutnotalwaysassociatedwithreducedsea0iceextentandresultantlonger phytoplanktongrowingseason

HumanactivitieshaveincreasedtheatmosphericCO2concentrationbyabout40sincethebeginningoftheindustrialageanditisestimatedthattheoceanhasabsorbedmorethan25

23

ofthetotalanthropogenicemissions(Mathisetal2015)TheoceanicuptakeofCO2triggersaseriesofchemicalreactionsinthesurfaceoceanthatreducespHandresultsinocean acidification(OA)InshortOAmakesseawatercorrosivetocalciumcarbonatemineralswhichmanymarineorganismsrelyonforbodystructuresHigh0latitudeoceanshave naturallylowcarbonateconcentrationssoareconsideredtobemorevulnerabletotheimpactsofOAbecauseadditionalcarbonatelossrepresentsamuchgreaterproportionalchangetothesystemInanovelstudyMathisetalprovideariskassessmentofOAimpacts tocommercialandtraditionalfisheriesfocusedonshellfishsalmonandfinfishTheresultant indexsuggeststhatwhilethenorthernBeringSeaisatmediumriskfromOAimpactsto fisheriesPacificArcticwatersnorthoftheSewardPeninsulaarecurrentlyatlowriskduelargelytoalackofdependenceonthesefoodsources

3)Lower)Trophic)Level)Communities)signals)from)direct)and)indirect)sampling

ThepredominantconceptualmodelframinghowmarineecosystemsinthePacificArctic respondtoreducedseaiceisbasedonchangesanticipatedfromashiftinpelagic0benthic coupling(Fig4)

Figure)4))Generalized)conceptual)model)depicting)the)influence)of)sea)ice)on)pelagicVbenthic)coupling)on) Pacific)Arctic)continental)shelves)

24

OnthebroadshelvesthatcomprisemuchofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemnewprimaryproductionfromsea0icealgaeandphytoplanktonbloomsfallstotheseafloortosupportrich benthiccommunities(Grebmeier2012)Asseaicethinsandretreatsearlierintheseasonitisanticipatedthatearlierandlargerphytoplanktonbloomswillswitchfromabenthic0 dominatedtoapelagic0dominatedmarineecosystemThisshiftwillcascadethroughthesystemsupportingnovelcommunitiesofsecondaryandtertiaryconsumers(zooplanktonandforagefishes)anduppertrophiclevelmarinebirdsandmammalsIndeedGrebmeieret al(2006)suggestedthatthistypeofecosystemshiftisalreadyunderwayinthemarinecommunitiesofthenorthernBeringSeaThePacificArcticisoftendescribedasabenthic0 dominatedmarineecosystemonethatdoesnotsupportalargebiomassorspeciesdiversityoffishesAdescriptionofconditionsthathavefosteredexistingbenthichotspotsoffersa solidfoundationforassessingfuturechangeswhileanaccountingoftheexistingcommunitiesofmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsprovidesastartingpointuponwhichtobuildalong0termrecord)

31Benthichotspotsandmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitats

ArecordofextantconditionsiskeytointerpretingmarineecosystemresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingnowevidentinthePacificArcticSucharecordexistsforfourbenthic lsquohotspotrsquocommunitiesinthenorthernBeringandChukchiseas(Grebmeieretal2015a)but notformarinefishesLong0termsamplingofbenthicmacrofaunalcommunitiesindicatesthatthebenthichotspotshavemaintainedconsistentlyhighbiomassforuptofourdecadesdueto reoccurrenceofseasonallyreliablemoderate0to0highwatercolumnproductioncoupledwithexportofcarbonfromoverlyingwaterstotheseafloorUppertrophiclevelbenthivorestargetpreyaggregationsineachofthehotspotsOverallbottom0upforcingbyhydrography andfoodsupplytothebenthosinfluencespersistenceandcompositionofbenthicpreywhichinturninfluencestheuppertrophiclevelspeciescompositionandseasonaloccurrence Whenconsistentlysampledintandemthesebenthos0benthivoreconnectionscanfacilitate useofUTLspeciesassentinelsofshiftsinpreycompositionandabundance(Mooreetal2014)

Sincethe2000stherehavebeenahostofArcticmarinefishsurveysintheChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasprecipitatedbybothscientificinterestintheimpactsofclimatechangeandcommercialinterestinoilandgasdevelopment(Logerwelletal2015)Resultsfrom thesesurveysprovideanovelopportunitytocompareArcticfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsrangingfromlagoonsandbeachestobenthicandpelagiccontinental shelfwatersAsynthesisofdatafromthesesurveysrevealedmoresimilaritiesthandifferencesinhabitatusebetweenthetwoseasForexamplenearshorehabitatisusedbyallageclassesofforagefishesandisalsoanurseryareaforotherspeciesinboththeChukchiand westernBeaufortseasNotablysomecommercialspeciesmaybeexpandingtheirrangenorthtothesewatersincludingchinooksalmon(Oncorhynchustshawytscha)walleyepollock (Gaduschalcogrammus)andflatfishes(Pleuronectidae)Inadditionasynthesisofinformationonrelativeabundanceandageofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)andsaffroncod

25

(Eleginusgracilis)bothkeypreyspeciesinArcticfoodwebssupportedthedevelopmentoflifehistoryanddistributionmodelsthatwillinformfutureresearchontrophicdynamicsin thePacificArcticsector

32Inferencesofmarineecosystemshiftsfromsealsseabirdsandseaducks

Additionalinformationregardingtheimpactoflsquonewnormalrsquobiophysicalconditionsonlowertrophiclevelspeciescanbeinferredfromshiftsinthedietandbodyconditionofmarine mammalsandbirdsCrawfordetal(2015)comparedthedietandconditionofringedseals(Pusahispida)andbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)harvestedintheAlaskanBeringand Chukchiseasduringhistorical(197501984)andrecent(200302012)periodsTheyfoundthe proportionoffishinthedietofbothspeciesincreasedintherecentreduced0iceperiodcomparedtothehistoricalperiodInadditionringedsealsgrewfasterhadthickerblubber andmaturedtwoyearsearlierBeardedsealshadthickerblubberintherecentperiodbut didnotmanifesttheotherchangesreportedfortheringedsealsAlthoughanumberofthe comparisonswerenotstatisticallysignificanttakentogethertheseobservationssuggestgreaterfishavailabilityintheAlaskanBering0Chukchimarineecosystemsupportinggood bodyconditionintheseals

AsinthesealpaperDivokyetal(2015)parsedalong0termdatasetintorecent(200302012)andhistorical(197501984)periodstocompareoceanographicconditionsnestlingdietandfledgingsuccessatablackguillemot(Cepphusgryllemandtii)breedingcolonyinthewestern BeaufortSeaFrom15Julyto1Septemberseaiceretreatedanaverageof18kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof958kmfromthecolonyduringthehistoricalperiodwhileinthe recentperiodiceretreataveraged98kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof5069kmSeasurfacetemperaturenearthecolonyincreasedby29⁰CbetweenthetwoperiodsWhileArcticcodcomprisedover95ofthepreyprovidedtonestlingsinthehistoricalperiodthis proportiondecreasedtolt5ofthenestlingdietduringmostyearsintherecentperiodwhendemersalsculpin(Cottidae)comprisedthemajorityofthedietTheshiftawayfrom Arcticcodwasassociatedwithafive0foldincreaseintherateofnestlingstarvationand reductionsinnestlinggrowthandfledgingmassConverselyannualadultsurvivalduringthe nonbreedingseason(September0May)showednosignificantdifferencebetweenthetwo periodssuggestingnochangeintheavailabilityofArcticcodorinoverallpreyavailabilityto blackguillemotsintheirBeringSeawinteringarea

IncontrasttoarelianceonpelagicpreyLovvornetal(2015)investigatedpotentialclimate0 relatedlimitstobenthicfeedingbyseaducksalongtheirmigrationcorridorinthenortheasternChukchiSeaKingeiders(Somateriaspectabilis)primarilyeatclams(bivalves) duringmigrationandrecentsamplinghasshownthatdenseclamassemblagesoccuronlyinspecificlocationsalongthemigrationcorridorSeaicecanpreventeidersfromreachingtheseprimefeedingsiteswithsatellitedataforApril‒May(2001‒2013)showingthataccess canvaryfrom0‒100InawarmingandincreasinglyvariableclimateaccesstobenthicfeedingsitesmaybefurthererodedbytheeffectsofwindsonunconsolidatediceThese

26

resultsunderscoretheimportanceofmaintainingarangeofbenthicfeedingareasthroughoutthemigrationcorridortoensurepreyavailabilitytotheeiderseachyear)

4)Upper)Trophic)Level)Species)marine)birds)and)mammals)as)ecosystem)sentinels

Astoppredatorsmarinebirdsandmammalsmustadapttochangesintheirhabitatsresultingfromphysicalforcingandtherebycanserveassentinelstoecosystemshifts(Mooreetal2014MooreandGulland2014)ResponsesofUTLspeciestoalteredhabitatscanbe categorizedasextrinsicincludingshiftsinrangemigratorytiming(phenology)orregionsofhighabundance(hotspots)orintrinsicincludingchangesindietbodyconditionand chemicalcomposition(Fig5)

Figure)5)Marine)birds)and)mammals)are)upper)trophic)level)(UTL))species)that)reflect)ecosystem) alterations)by)changes)in)habitat)use)(extrinsic))and)body)condition)(intrinsic))revealing)fundamental) changes)in)marine)ecosystems)

Responsesareinter0relatedsuchthatashiftinrangephenologyoruseofhotspotswillbe reflectedinchangesindietbodyconditionandchemistryItisthisconnectionthatallowsus

27

todetectecosystemreorganizationbytrackingchangesintheecologyandphysiologyofUTL speciesAlthoughtherehavebeennocoordinatedlong0termstudiesofUTLspeciesinthe PacificArcticexaminingthisconnectionasynthesisofinformationfromvisualsurveyssatellitetaggingofindividualsandyear0roundacousticdetectionsprovidesanecological foundationthatcanprovideabaselinetoinformfutureinvestigations

41Seasonaloccurrencehotspothabitatsandacousticecology

Kuletzetal(2015)depictspatialpatternsofrelativeabundanceofseabirdsandmarinemammalsinsummerandfallderivedfromsixyearsofvisualsurveysintheeasternChukchi andwesternBeaufortseasUsingstatisticalspatialanalysistoolshotspotsforseabirdswalrusandgraywhaleswereidentifiedintheChukchiSeawhilehotspotsforbowheadwhalesandsealsweredescribednearBarrowCanyonandalongtheBeaufortSeashelfand slopeHotspotsforbelugasoccurredinboththeChukchiandBeaufortseasInsummerthreehotspotsweresharedbybothseabirdsandmarinemammalsintheChukchiSeawaters offshoreWainwrightsouthofHannaShoalandatthemouthofBarrowCanyonOnlytheBarrowCanyonhotspotwasoccupiedthroughthefallSharedhotspotswerecharacterized bystrongfrontscausedbyupwellingandcurrentswhichcanservetoaggregatepreyUsingadifferentapproachCittaetal(2015)providedetailedanalysisoftheseasonalmovementsandhabitatusebyasinglespeciesthroughoutoneyearLocationsfrom54bowheadwhales (Balaenamysticetus)obtainedbysatellitetelemetryfrom200602012wereusedtoidentifya totalofsixcore0useareasintheBeaufort(3)Chukchi(1)andnorthernBering(2)seas Takentogetherthetimingofuse(phenology)andphysicalcharacteristics(oceanographyseaiceandwinds)associatedwitheachareadescribeaseasonalcircuitbythewhalesthroughareasthoughttosupportelevatedpreydensities

Passiveacousticsamplinghasbecomeacommonyear0roundtooltodetectcallingmarine mammalsinarcticseas(Mooreetal2006Staffordetal2012)Since2007therehasbeenanespeciallystrongsamplingeffortassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationinthenortheast ChukchiandwesternBeaufortseas(egHannayetal2013 httpwwwafscnoaagovnmmlcetaceanchaozphp)Theserecorderdeployments augmentalong0standingacousticstudyinthecentralBeaufortSea(Blackwelletal2007)andmorerecentdeploymentsintheBeringStraitregion(KStaffordperscomm)HeretoforeresearchersconductedeachofthesestudiesindependentlyofoneanotherClark etal(2015)presentsanovelsynthesisofthecombinedoutputfromsixresearcheffortsusingfourtypesofrecordersandavarietyofsub0samplingandanalysisschemestodescribean lsquoacousticyearrsquointhelifeofthebowheadwhaleDetectionsofbowheadcallsfrom20sitesextendingover2300kmfromthenorthernBeringSeatothesoutheastBeaufortSeawere combinedovera140monthperiod(200902010)todescribewhaleoccurrenceacrosstheir rangeThespatialandtemporalvariabilityinsoundlevelswithinthefrequencybandofbowheadwhaleswasalsoquantifiedThelowestunderwatersoundlevelsoccurredfromlate NovemberuntilMayintheChukchiSeaDuringwinter200902010singingbowheadwhaleselevatedbroadbandsoundlevelsforroughly38daysinthenorthernBeringSeafollowedby

28

asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

29

ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

31

Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

32

(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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46

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DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarcticsea iceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161

DruckenmillerMLCittaJJFergusonMCClarkeJTGeorgeJCQuakenbushLinpressTrendsinsea0icecoverwithinbowheadwhalehabitatsinthePacificArctic

47

DuntonKHGrebmeierJM andTrefry JH2017HannaShoalAnintegrativestudyofaHighArcticmarineecosystemintheChukchiSeaDeepSeaResearchPartIIDOI 101016jdsr2201709001

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FeelyRADoneySCCooleySR2009Oceanacidificationpresentconditionsandfuture changesinahigh0CO2worldOceanography2236047

FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015DivergentpatternsofrecentseaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049

GeorgeJCBadaJZehJScottLBrownSEOharaTampSuydamR1999Ageandgrowthestimatesofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)viaasparticacid racemizationCanadianJournalofZoology775710580

GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgress inOceanography1362500262

GilesKALaxonSWRidoutALWinghamDJBaconS2012WesternArcticOceanfreshwaterstorageincreasedbywind0drivenspin0upoftheBeaufortGyreNature Geoscience51940197

GrebmeierJMOverlandJEMooreSEFarleyEVCarmackECCooperLWFreyKEHelleJHMcLaughlinFAMcNuttSL2006AmajorecosystemshiftinthenorthernBeringSeaScience311146101464

GrebmeierJM2012ShiftingpatternsoflifeinthePacificArcticandsub0arcticseasAnnual ReviewofMarineScience41610166

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GrebmeierJMMooreSE Overland JEFrey KEandGradinger R2010BiologicalresponsetorecentPacificArcticseaiceretreatsEOS91(18)1610168

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HillVArdynaMLeeSHVarelaDEinpressDecadaltrendsinphytoplankton productioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

preferenceandbehaviorinthenortheasternChukchiSea1982084RepIntWhale Commn362730279

MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

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Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 12: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

on0goingoceanographicprograms(egRUSALCAandtheDistributedBiologicalObservatory[DBO])andinsomecasestheATsconductedfollow0ontheme0basedmeetingsorintegrativeworkshopsasthebestmeanstoaccomplishdataintegrationandsynthesisontheirtopic OtherATschosetointegratetheirworkviavideoorteleconferenceswiththebulkofcontract fundinggoingtowardssupportforagraduatestudentpost0docorotherresearcherto accomplishthesynthesistasksidentified)

TASK)4))TRACK)PROGRESS)OF)ANALYTICAL)WORK)

ATleadshadprimaryresponsibilityfortrackingtheprogressofworkontheirsciencethemeandmembersoftheSSCwerealsoaskedtofollowtheprogressoftheworktowardsuseful productsTrackingtooktheformofcontactatregularintervals(egbimonthly)viae0mailorphonesolicitingspecificinformationonproblemsencounteredandadherencetotimelineforproductcompletionSummariesofprogressoneachthemeappearedinQuarterlyReportsto theBOEM

TASK)5))SCIENCE)PRODUCTS))

ThecoreproductoftheSOARprojectwasaseriesofsciencepresentationsandpeer0reviewedpapersdescribingcurrentandprojectedstatusofthePARmarineecosystemAnnual presentationsontheapproachandprogressoftheSOARwereprovidedatplenarysessionsof theAlaskaMarineScienceSymposiumandadditionalpresentationsweremadeatother sciencevenuessuchastheAGUOceanSciencesmeetingSciencepaperswerethenpublishedinspecialissuesofpeer0reviewedjournalswiththeprojectPIsandcoordinatorservingas GuestEditors

TASK)6))COMMUNICATION)OF)SYNTHESIS)APPROACH)amp)PRODUCTS)

Inadditiontosciencepapersandpresentationsresultsofthesyntheseswereprovidedto communitiesinelectronicandhardcopyformatandopportunitiestospeakwithArcticresidentsweresoughtatco0managementmeetingsandotherforaAwebsitewasdeveloped providinggraphicsandbriefsummariesforgeneraluseandlinkingtootherrelevantsitesResultsofthesynthesiswerecommunicatedtovariousnationalandinternationalArctic Programs(egNOAAArcticReportCardSEARCHISACPAGIASCandArcticCouncilWorkingGroups)

12

SOARPHASE1ANDSOARPHASE2

Task5(ScienceProducts)wasoriginallyenvisagedtoresultinaspecialvolumeofpeer0reviewedpaperspossiblysupplementedbyanadditionalsmallersetofpapersinatheme sectionorothersimilaroutletHoweverfollowingcompletionofthefirstphaseofSOARculminatinginthe2015specialissueofProgressinOceanography(MooreandStabeno2015 seeResultssectionbelowformoreinformation)therewasahighlevelofinterestinextendingSOARtoincludeadditionalsynthesisThereforethesecondphaseofSOARwas developedbuildingfromaninformalmid0projectworkshopandresultinginasecondfullspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchIIFurtherdetailisprovidedinthefollowingsections

RESULTS)

FOUNDATIONALTASKSSCIENCESTEERINGCOMMITTEEANDWORKSHOP

THESOARSCIENCESTEERINGCOMMITTEE

AScienceSteeringCommittee(SCC)comprisedofscientistsandAlaskancoastalcommunityrepresentativeswasestablished(Table1)ThefirstoffiveannualSSCmeetingswasheldfrom103November2011attheWatertownHotelinSeattleWATheSSCidentifiedrelevantprojects anddatasourcesdevelopedthreedraftsciencethemesandrelatedquestionsandidentified potentialparticipantsandleadersforassociatedinterdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeamsthatwould beformedatSOARScienceWorkshopMultiplesubsequentmeetingsfurtherdevelopedthe sciencethemesandprovidedguidanceforSOARtasks(Table2)

)

Table)1))List)of)Science)Steering)Committee)members)and)institutions)

ScienceSteeringCommitteeMember

Affiliation Location

RobynAngliss NOAANationalMarineMammalLaboratory

SeattleWA

CarinAshjian WoodsHoleOceanographic Institution

WoodsHoleMA

ChristopherClark CornellUniversity IthacaNY

13

JacquelineGrebmeier UniversityofMarylandCenterforEnvironmental Studies

SolomonsMD

CraigGeorge NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EskimoWhaling

ComissionKawerak NomeAK

SueMoore NOAANMFS SeattleWA ChadJay USGeologicalSurvey AnchorageAK TimRagan MarineMammalCommission WashingtonDC PhyllisStabeno NOAAPMEL SeattleWA RobertSuydam NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK TomWeingartner UniversityofAlaska0

Fairbanks FairbanksAK

)

Table)2)List)of)SOAR)SSC)Teleconferences)and)inVperson)meetings)

SOAR)SSC)Meeting) SSCTeleconference1

Date) 21September2011

SSCTeleconference2 18October2011 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingSeattleWA 11November2011 SSCTeleconference3 16February2012 SSCTeleconference4 6April2012 SOARMarchWorkshop 14016March2012 SSCTeleconference5 6July2012 SSCTeleconference6 6October2012 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 21January2013 SSCTeleconference7) 9April2013 SSCTeleconference8) 14November2013 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 20January2014 SSCTeleconference9) 12January2015 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 23January2015 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK(informal)) 26January2016

SOARWORKSHOPndashMARCH2012

TheSOARScienceWorkshopwasheldfrom14016March2012attheEganCenterinAnchorageAlaskaTheSOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandProjectCoordinatorallmembersoftheScienceSteeringCommitteeand42ofthe43invitedSOARContributorsattendedthe

14

workshopDraftScienceThemesandQuestionsdevelopedbytheSOARScienceSteeringCommitteewereprovidedtoparticipantsinadvanceoftheworkshopsummarizedas(i)EcosystemResponsetoBottom0upandorTop0downForcing(ii)MarineBirdsMammalsandFishasEcosystemSentinelsand(iii)AcousticEcology

TheprimarygoalsoftheScienceWorkshopwereto(1)refinetheDraftScienceThemesandQuestions(2)formresearchteamstoundertakeanalysisinsupportofdevelopmentofpeer0reviewedpapersand(3)developshortproposalstoidentifyprojectmilestonesandfinancialsupportrequiredtocompletesyntheticprojects

DayoneoftheworkshopconsistedofdisciplinarytalksinplenarysessiontoprovideallparticipantswiththecurrentstateofknowledgeineachareaofstudyDuringdaytwooftheworkshopsciencethemeswererevisedtoreflectgroupinputParticipantsdividedintothree theme0basedbreakoutgroupsandbegandevelopingsciencequestionstoproposeforSOARDaythreeoftheworkshopbeganwithaplenarysummaryofthepreviousdayrsquosprogress followedbybreakoutgroupstowriteandsubmitone0pageproposalsfortheprojects requestingfundingOntheafternoonofthethirddayanopen0sessionwasheldto communicateworkshopprogresstoBOEMscientistsandmanagerscolleaguesfromtheNorthPacificResearchBoardandAlaskaOceanObservingSystemindustryrepresentativesand otherinterestedpartiesFurtherdetailsoftheSOARWorkshopcanbefoundintheSOAR WorkshopReport(SheffieldGuyetal2012a)andseealsoSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)

15

SCIENCEPRODUCTANDCOMMUNICATIONTASKS

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE1 FollowingtheinitialSOARthemeselectionsandteamdevelopmentandincorporatinganextensivepeer0reviewphaseledbytheprojectPIsandcoordinatorthefirstphaseofthe SOARprojectculminatedinaspecialvolumeofProgressinOceanographypublishedinAugust 2015(Fig2Table3)Thisspecialissueincluded16fullpapersplusanintroductionpaper authoredbythetwoprojectPIs

Figure)2)Cover)of)the)first)SOAR)special) volume)published)in)Progress)in)

Oceanography)in)2015)

16

Table)3))Papers)included)in)the)2015)SOAR)special)issue)of)Progress)in)Oceanography)

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsofthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011 WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressinOceanography13612031 FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015Divergentpatternsofrecent seaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049 WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059 ArrigoKRvanDijkenGL2015ContinuedincreasesinArcticOceanprimaryproductionProgressinOceanography13660070 MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJNFeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091 GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarkeJTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSHLovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015EcosystemcharacteristicsandprocessesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114 LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132 CrawfordJAQuakenbushLTCittaJJ2015Acomparisonofringedandbeardedsealdietconditionandproductivitybetweenhistorical(1975ndash1984)andrecent(2003ndash2012)periodsintheAlaskanBeringandChukchiseasProgressinOceanography1361330150 DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarctic seaiceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161 LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015LimitstobenthicfeedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchangingseaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174 KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015SeasonalspatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareas ProgressinOceanography1361750200 CittaJJQuakenbushLTOkkonenSRDruckenmillerMLMaslowskiWClement0KinneyJGeorgeJCBrowerHSmallRJAshjianCJHarwoodLAHeide0Joslashrgensen MP2015Ecologicalcharacteristicsofcore0useareasusedbyBeringndashChukchindashBeaufort(BCB)bowheadwhales2006ndash2012ProgressinOceanography1362010222

17

ClarkCWBerchokCLBlackwellSBHannayDEJonesJPonirakisDStafford KM2015AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasProgressinOceanography1362230240 MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationshipbetweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249 GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgressinOceanography1362500262 HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015ChangeintheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE2

Followingthe2015publicationofthefirstSOARspecialissueinProgressinOceanography theSOARprojectSSCandparticipantsdecidedtopursuecoordinatethepublicationofasetofpapersinfullsecondspecialissueThosePhase2topicsandpaperleadswerediscussedat theannualSOARSSCmeetinginJanuary2015Baseduponsuggestionsatthismeeting102pageproposalswererequestedfromsuggestedpaperleadsandproposalswerethen subsequentlydevelopedintopublishedpapersThemajorityofpapersforthesecondspecial issuewerecompletedandinpressbytheendof2017(Table4)withfinalpublicationofthe completespecialissueinDeepSeaResearchIIndashTopicalStudiesinOceanographyexpectedby latesummer2018

Table)4))Papers)to)appear)in)the)SOAR)2nd)Phase)special)issue)published)in)Deep)Sea)Research)Part)II)

Corresponding) Author Manuscript)Title

SueMoore IntroductionTheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)Project

MuyinWang SeaiceandoceancharacteristicsintheChukchiSeabyselectedCMIP5modelsthepresentandthefuture

NicholasBond DiagnosisofphysicaloceanographiceventsintheChukchiSea usinganoceanreanalysis

VictoriaHill DecadaltrendsinphytoplanktonproductioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

18

JessicaCross FormationandtransportofcorrosivewaterinthePacificArcticRegion

LeeCooper DepositionpatternsontheChukchiShelfusingradionuclide inventoriesinrelationtosurfacesedimentcharacteristics

Matthew Druckenmiller

Trendsinsea0icecoverandupwellingpotentialwithinBowheadwhaleuseareasintheWesternArctic

KateStafford AcousticecologyofbowheadandbelugawhalesincoreuseareasintheBeaufortandChukchiSeas

JohnCitta Oceanographiccharacteristicsassociatedwithbowheadwhale movementsintheChukchiSea

JohnCitta SeasonaldistributionandoverlapofmarinemammalsintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseas

KimberlyRand UsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

ElizabethLogerwell Environmentaldriversofbenthicfishdistributioninandaround BarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwesternBeaufortSea

KathleenStafford BelugawhalesintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaasynthesisofavailableinformationontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StephenOkkonen Relationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskanBeaufortSea

MartinRobards UnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesintheAlaskanArcticPlace0basedcollaborationswithAlaskaNative communities

SueMoore TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)ModellinkingtemporalprocessestocontiguousdomainsinthePacificArctic

19

PRESENTATIONSANDPOSTERSATSCIENTIFICMEETINGS

SOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandcontributorsmademorethan50presentationsincludinginformationaboutthissynthesiseffortatavarietyofscientificmeetingsworkshopsandwebinarsAfulllistofthesepresentationsisprovidedinAppendixC

OTHERCOMMUNICATIONOFSYNTHESISAPPROACHANDPRODUCTS

TheSynthesisofArcticResearchwebsitelocatedathttpswwwpmelnoaagovsoar providesbackgroundinformationandup0to0datescienceproductinformationtostakeholders andthegeneralpublicThewebsitewillcontinuetobeliveandhostedbyNOAA

Severalpeer0reviewedpaperswerepublishedthatalsoappealtoamoregeneralortrans0 disciplineaudienceincludingSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)andSheffieldGuyetal(2016)SOARsynthesisresultswerefeaturedinnumerousnewspapersonlinefeaturesmagazines andmore

SYNTHESIS)SUMMARY)AND)DISCUSSION)

SOARPHASEI

ThefirstphaseofSOARresultedinfifteenpaperspublishedinaspecialissueofProgressin Oceanographyin2015(Table3)HereweprovideabroadoverviewanddiscussionofthepapersinthatspecialissuedrawnfromtheIntroductiontothatissue(MooreandStabeno 2015)

1 Introduction)

TheinitiationoftheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)projectcoincidedwiththerecognitionthatbiophysicalchangesinthePacificArcticregionweresoextremecomparedtotherecentpastthattheyacquiredthemonikerlsquonewnormalrsquo(Jeffriesetal2013) ConsequentlydescribingthebiophysicalpropertiesofthelsquonewlsquoPacificArcticmarineecosystemwasfoundationaltotheSOAReffortandthefocusoffivepapersinthefirstspecial issueExaminingbiologicalresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingthenbecamethetaskofresearchersfocusedonthestudyoflowertrophiclevel(LTL)communitiesanduppertrophiclevel(UTL)speciesTwopapersprovideintegratedresultsfromdirectsamplingofbenthic andfishcommunitieswhilethreepapersreportonchangesinLTLspeciesoccurrenceinferredbyshiftsinthedietsofsealsandmarinebirdsSixpapersfocusonUTLspecieswith fourpresentinginformationonseasonaloccurrenceinhotspotorcore0usehabitatsandtwo describingvariabilityinmarinemammalbodyconditioninthecontextofdecadal0scale

20

environmentalvariabilityTogetherthesepapersprovideasyntheticcontexttofocushypothesesunderpinningthenextdecadeofresearchinthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

2)Biophysics)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

ThePacificArcticmarineecosystemiscomprisedofinflowshelves(northernBeringandChukchiseas)coupledtointeriorshelves(EastSiberianandBeaufortseas)withthe contrastingbiophysicsofthesedomainssummarizedinCarmacketal(2006)Circulationon bothinflowandinteriorshelvesislinkedtopan0arcticteleconnectionmechanisms(egArcticOscillation)withinteriorshelvesalsostronglyinfluencedbytheseasonaloutflowof relativelywarmfreshwaterfromarcticriversEvaluatingecosystemstatusandtrendsinthePacificArcticwasthefocusofarecentbookwith10(of12)chaptersdevotedtoobservationsandmodelingoftheatmosphereoceanphysicsandchemistry(GrebmeierandMaslowski 2014)Thepapersinthefirstspecialissueaddtothatbodyofknowledgeespeciallywithregardtobiologicalresponsestobiophysicaldriversandinthiswaycontributetoamore holisticunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

21)PhysicalobservationsandopenwaterprojectionsinthelsquonewnormalrsquoPacificArctic

Recentobservations(200302013)ofenvironmentalchangesinthePacificArcticsupportthecontentionthatanewnormalclimateisemerging(Fig3Jeffriesetal2013Woodetal 2015)

Figure)3))Highlights)of)recent)biophysical)changes)in)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

21

Theiconicindicatorofthischangeisthedramaticsummertimelossofseaice(50byarea75byvolume)whichinsomeyears(eg2012)hasresultedinnearlyice0freeconditionsin theregionSpecificallysatellitedatafrom197902012reveallocalizedchangesinsea0ice occurrenceofupto0164daysyearintheCanadaBasinand0124daysyearintheBeaufort Seawhichacceleratedto0657daysyear(CanadaBasin)and01284daysyear(Beaufort Sea)duringthe200002012period(Freyetal2015)Multiyearseaicehasalmostentirelydisappearedwithinter0annualvariabilityiniceconcentrationlargelydrivenbywindforcing intheBeaufortSeaIntheCanadaBasindifferencesinannualseaiceareprimarilythermallydrivenwhilesea0iceextentisinfluencedbybothwindsandheatontheBeringSeashelf

Thesummeratmosphericpatternsinfluenceoceancirculationfreshwaterpathwaysand movementandmeltingofseaiceDuringthelastdecadetheintensificationoftheBeaufortHigh(OgiandWallace2012)resultedinanomaloussummerwindsTheseanomalouswinds togetherwiththelossofmulti0yeariceweretheprimaryfactorsthattransformedtheChukchiandnorthernBeaufortseasintoanopenwaterenvironment(Woodetal2015)InparticulartheeasternBeaufortSeaappearstobeparticularlysusceptibletoanomalouswindsthrough theireffectontheadvectionofwarmfreshwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumeInadditiontransportanomaliesintheBeringStraitaredeterminedbycompetinglarge0scale atmosphericpatternstheBeaufortHighandAleutianLow(Danielsonetal2014)NotablychangesinBeringStraitflowthroughcanimpacttheworldclimatefarbeyondtheBeringStraitandArcticregion(egHuetal2015)

Freyetal(2015)investigatetheinfluenceofthePacificDecadalOscillation(PDO)andtheArcticOscillation(AO)onthepersistenceofseaiceinsummerandwinterTheyfoundsignificantnegativecorrelationsbetweenseaiceonthesoutheasternBeringSeashelfandthe PDOinwinteraswellassignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweentheAOandsea0icecoverjustsouthofStLawrenceIslandSignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweenthePDOandsea iceintheCanadaBasin0CanadianArchipelagowerefoundinsummeraswellasbetweentheAOandseaiceintheChukchi0BeaufortseasThisnovelinvestigationofteleconnections betweenthePDOtheAOandsea0icecoverprovidesacriticalstepinunderstandinghow globalandregionalclimatepatternsinfluencethephysicsofthePacificArcticregion

Theunprecedentedlossofseaicehasresultedinatremendousincreaseinopen0water susceptibletorapidsolarheatingwithadditionalheatandfreshwaterprovidedbya50 increaseinPacificWaterinflowatBeringStraitfrom200102011(Woodgateetal2012 Woodetal2015)TheinfluenceofincreasedheatstoredintheChukchiandBeaufortseasis notwellunderstoodSuggestionsthatheatreleasedtotheatmosphereinlateautumnandwinterdrivesaspectsofmid0latitudeweatherremainspeculativelargelyduetotheshort timerecordavailable(Woodetal2015)FresheningoftheArcticOceanhasbeenoccurring atleastsincethe1990s(egGilesetal2012)Severalexplanationshavebeenproposed includingincreasedsea0icemeltfresherPacificWaterflowingthroughBeringStraitchanges inthemagnitudeofriverdischargeandthemeanstrengtheningoftheBeaufortHighInrecentyearsrelativelystrongeasterlywindshavebeencommonduetotheArctic0wide

22

patternofcirculationaroundanintensifiedBeaufortHighUndertheseconditionsfreshand warmwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumecanbelaterallytransportedfaroutintothe BeaufortSea(Woodetal2015)

WangandOverland(2015)comparedresultsfromtwelvecoupledclimatemodelstoproducecompositeprojectionsofthedurationofopenwaterintheChukchiandBeaufortseasat decadalintervalsfrom201002050andin2090Forwatersnorthofthe70degNopen0water durationshiftsfrom304monthsin2010toaprojected~5monthsby2040Projectedopen0 waterdurationisaboutonemonthlongeralongthesamelatitudesintheChukchiSeacomparedwiththeBeaufortSeawithuncertaintyofaboutplusmn1monthestimatedfromtherangeofmodelresultsAllmodelsprojectedopen0waterdurationtoexpandquicklyoverthe nextthreedecadeswhichwillimpactregionaleconomicaccessandpotentiallyalterecosystemsYetthePacificArcticregionwillremaincoveredwiththinfirst0yearicefrom JanuarythroughMayintothesecondhalfofthecenturyduetoseasonallackofsunlight

22Changesinprimaryproductionandoceanacidification

Thedramaticlossofsea0iceextentandvolumehasresultedinaconcomitantincreaseinlightpenetrationintheupperoceanacrosstheArcticGiventhethinningandarealreductionof seaiceafundamentalquestionariseshavethesechangesfosteredanincreaseinmarineprimaryproductionSpecificallyisthePacificArcticregionmoreproductivethanitwasthreedecadesagoIntheAtlanticArcticLeuetal(2011)measuredprimaryproductionby bothicealgaeandphytoplanktonincontrastingyears(2007008)ofsea0icecoverinaSvalbardfjordandconcludedthatearliericebreakupcorrespondedwithearlieronsetofa phytoplanktonbloomSimilarlyTremblayetal(2012)reportincreasedprimaryproductionfor2007008associatedwithextremesea0iceretreatsandincreasedupwellingatstations locatedsouthandeastofBanksIslandinthesoutheasternBeaufortSeaButcanconclusions drawnfrommeasurementssorestrictedinspaceandtimebeextrapolatedtolargerarcticregionsUsingsatelliteimageryArrigoandvanDijken(2015)investigatedchangesinseaice atbothregionalandbasinscalesfrom199802012andestimatedhowthesechangeshaveimpactedratesofnetprimaryproduction(NPP)byphytoplanktonTheyreportthatannual NPPincreased30duringthisperiodwiththelargestincreasesontheinteriorshelves (includingtheEastSiberianandBeaufort)andsmallerincreasesoninflowshelves(includingtheChukchi)OutflowshelveseitherexhibitednochangeinannualNPPoradeclineperhaps indicatingthatnutrientshadbeenconsumedfurtherupstreamIncreasedannualNPPwasoftenbutnotalwaysassociatedwithreducedsea0iceextentandresultantlonger phytoplanktongrowingseason

HumanactivitieshaveincreasedtheatmosphericCO2concentrationbyabout40sincethebeginningoftheindustrialageanditisestimatedthattheoceanhasabsorbedmorethan25

23

ofthetotalanthropogenicemissions(Mathisetal2015)TheoceanicuptakeofCO2triggersaseriesofchemicalreactionsinthesurfaceoceanthatreducespHandresultsinocean acidification(OA)InshortOAmakesseawatercorrosivetocalciumcarbonatemineralswhichmanymarineorganismsrelyonforbodystructuresHigh0latitudeoceanshave naturallylowcarbonateconcentrationssoareconsideredtobemorevulnerabletotheimpactsofOAbecauseadditionalcarbonatelossrepresentsamuchgreaterproportionalchangetothesystemInanovelstudyMathisetalprovideariskassessmentofOAimpacts tocommercialandtraditionalfisheriesfocusedonshellfishsalmonandfinfishTheresultant indexsuggeststhatwhilethenorthernBeringSeaisatmediumriskfromOAimpactsto fisheriesPacificArcticwatersnorthoftheSewardPeninsulaarecurrentlyatlowriskduelargelytoalackofdependenceonthesefoodsources

3)Lower)Trophic)Level)Communities)signals)from)direct)and)indirect)sampling

ThepredominantconceptualmodelframinghowmarineecosystemsinthePacificArctic respondtoreducedseaiceisbasedonchangesanticipatedfromashiftinpelagic0benthic coupling(Fig4)

Figure)4))Generalized)conceptual)model)depicting)the)influence)of)sea)ice)on)pelagicVbenthic)coupling)on) Pacific)Arctic)continental)shelves)

24

OnthebroadshelvesthatcomprisemuchofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemnewprimaryproductionfromsea0icealgaeandphytoplanktonbloomsfallstotheseafloortosupportrich benthiccommunities(Grebmeier2012)Asseaicethinsandretreatsearlierintheseasonitisanticipatedthatearlierandlargerphytoplanktonbloomswillswitchfromabenthic0 dominatedtoapelagic0dominatedmarineecosystemThisshiftwillcascadethroughthesystemsupportingnovelcommunitiesofsecondaryandtertiaryconsumers(zooplanktonandforagefishes)anduppertrophiclevelmarinebirdsandmammalsIndeedGrebmeieret al(2006)suggestedthatthistypeofecosystemshiftisalreadyunderwayinthemarinecommunitiesofthenorthernBeringSeaThePacificArcticisoftendescribedasabenthic0 dominatedmarineecosystemonethatdoesnotsupportalargebiomassorspeciesdiversityoffishesAdescriptionofconditionsthathavefosteredexistingbenthichotspotsoffersa solidfoundationforassessingfuturechangeswhileanaccountingoftheexistingcommunitiesofmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsprovidesastartingpointuponwhichtobuildalong0termrecord)

31Benthichotspotsandmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitats

ArecordofextantconditionsiskeytointerpretingmarineecosystemresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingnowevidentinthePacificArcticSucharecordexistsforfourbenthic lsquohotspotrsquocommunitiesinthenorthernBeringandChukchiseas(Grebmeieretal2015a)but notformarinefishesLong0termsamplingofbenthicmacrofaunalcommunitiesindicatesthatthebenthichotspotshavemaintainedconsistentlyhighbiomassforuptofourdecadesdueto reoccurrenceofseasonallyreliablemoderate0to0highwatercolumnproductioncoupledwithexportofcarbonfromoverlyingwaterstotheseafloorUppertrophiclevelbenthivorestargetpreyaggregationsineachofthehotspotsOverallbottom0upforcingbyhydrography andfoodsupplytothebenthosinfluencespersistenceandcompositionofbenthicpreywhichinturninfluencestheuppertrophiclevelspeciescompositionandseasonaloccurrence Whenconsistentlysampledintandemthesebenthos0benthivoreconnectionscanfacilitate useofUTLspeciesassentinelsofshiftsinpreycompositionandabundance(Mooreetal2014)

Sincethe2000stherehavebeenahostofArcticmarinefishsurveysintheChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasprecipitatedbybothscientificinterestintheimpactsofclimatechangeandcommercialinterestinoilandgasdevelopment(Logerwelletal2015)Resultsfrom thesesurveysprovideanovelopportunitytocompareArcticfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsrangingfromlagoonsandbeachestobenthicandpelagiccontinental shelfwatersAsynthesisofdatafromthesesurveysrevealedmoresimilaritiesthandifferencesinhabitatusebetweenthetwoseasForexamplenearshorehabitatisusedbyallageclassesofforagefishesandisalsoanurseryareaforotherspeciesinboththeChukchiand westernBeaufortseasNotablysomecommercialspeciesmaybeexpandingtheirrangenorthtothesewatersincludingchinooksalmon(Oncorhynchustshawytscha)walleyepollock (Gaduschalcogrammus)andflatfishes(Pleuronectidae)Inadditionasynthesisofinformationonrelativeabundanceandageofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)andsaffroncod

25

(Eleginusgracilis)bothkeypreyspeciesinArcticfoodwebssupportedthedevelopmentoflifehistoryanddistributionmodelsthatwillinformfutureresearchontrophicdynamicsin thePacificArcticsector

32Inferencesofmarineecosystemshiftsfromsealsseabirdsandseaducks

Additionalinformationregardingtheimpactoflsquonewnormalrsquobiophysicalconditionsonlowertrophiclevelspeciescanbeinferredfromshiftsinthedietandbodyconditionofmarine mammalsandbirdsCrawfordetal(2015)comparedthedietandconditionofringedseals(Pusahispida)andbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)harvestedintheAlaskanBeringand Chukchiseasduringhistorical(197501984)andrecent(200302012)periodsTheyfoundthe proportionoffishinthedietofbothspeciesincreasedintherecentreduced0iceperiodcomparedtothehistoricalperiodInadditionringedsealsgrewfasterhadthickerblubber andmaturedtwoyearsearlierBeardedsealshadthickerblubberintherecentperiodbut didnotmanifesttheotherchangesreportedfortheringedsealsAlthoughanumberofthe comparisonswerenotstatisticallysignificanttakentogethertheseobservationssuggestgreaterfishavailabilityintheAlaskanBering0Chukchimarineecosystemsupportinggood bodyconditionintheseals

AsinthesealpaperDivokyetal(2015)parsedalong0termdatasetintorecent(200302012)andhistorical(197501984)periodstocompareoceanographicconditionsnestlingdietandfledgingsuccessatablackguillemot(Cepphusgryllemandtii)breedingcolonyinthewestern BeaufortSeaFrom15Julyto1Septemberseaiceretreatedanaverageof18kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof958kmfromthecolonyduringthehistoricalperiodwhileinthe recentperiodiceretreataveraged98kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof5069kmSeasurfacetemperaturenearthecolonyincreasedby29⁰CbetweenthetwoperiodsWhileArcticcodcomprisedover95ofthepreyprovidedtonestlingsinthehistoricalperiodthis proportiondecreasedtolt5ofthenestlingdietduringmostyearsintherecentperiodwhendemersalsculpin(Cottidae)comprisedthemajorityofthedietTheshiftawayfrom Arcticcodwasassociatedwithafive0foldincreaseintherateofnestlingstarvationand reductionsinnestlinggrowthandfledgingmassConverselyannualadultsurvivalduringthe nonbreedingseason(September0May)showednosignificantdifferencebetweenthetwo periodssuggestingnochangeintheavailabilityofArcticcodorinoverallpreyavailabilityto blackguillemotsintheirBeringSeawinteringarea

IncontrasttoarelianceonpelagicpreyLovvornetal(2015)investigatedpotentialclimate0 relatedlimitstobenthicfeedingbyseaducksalongtheirmigrationcorridorinthenortheasternChukchiSeaKingeiders(Somateriaspectabilis)primarilyeatclams(bivalves) duringmigrationandrecentsamplinghasshownthatdenseclamassemblagesoccuronlyinspecificlocationsalongthemigrationcorridorSeaicecanpreventeidersfromreachingtheseprimefeedingsiteswithsatellitedataforApril‒May(2001‒2013)showingthataccess canvaryfrom0‒100InawarmingandincreasinglyvariableclimateaccesstobenthicfeedingsitesmaybefurthererodedbytheeffectsofwindsonunconsolidatediceThese

26

resultsunderscoretheimportanceofmaintainingarangeofbenthicfeedingareasthroughoutthemigrationcorridortoensurepreyavailabilitytotheeiderseachyear)

4)Upper)Trophic)Level)Species)marine)birds)and)mammals)as)ecosystem)sentinels

Astoppredatorsmarinebirdsandmammalsmustadapttochangesintheirhabitatsresultingfromphysicalforcingandtherebycanserveassentinelstoecosystemshifts(Mooreetal2014MooreandGulland2014)ResponsesofUTLspeciestoalteredhabitatscanbe categorizedasextrinsicincludingshiftsinrangemigratorytiming(phenology)orregionsofhighabundance(hotspots)orintrinsicincludingchangesindietbodyconditionand chemicalcomposition(Fig5)

Figure)5)Marine)birds)and)mammals)are)upper)trophic)level)(UTL))species)that)reflect)ecosystem) alterations)by)changes)in)habitat)use)(extrinsic))and)body)condition)(intrinsic))revealing)fundamental) changes)in)marine)ecosystems)

Responsesareinter0relatedsuchthatashiftinrangephenologyoruseofhotspotswillbe reflectedinchangesindietbodyconditionandchemistryItisthisconnectionthatallowsus

27

todetectecosystemreorganizationbytrackingchangesintheecologyandphysiologyofUTL speciesAlthoughtherehavebeennocoordinatedlong0termstudiesofUTLspeciesinthe PacificArcticexaminingthisconnectionasynthesisofinformationfromvisualsurveyssatellitetaggingofindividualsandyear0roundacousticdetectionsprovidesanecological foundationthatcanprovideabaselinetoinformfutureinvestigations

41Seasonaloccurrencehotspothabitatsandacousticecology

Kuletzetal(2015)depictspatialpatternsofrelativeabundanceofseabirdsandmarinemammalsinsummerandfallderivedfromsixyearsofvisualsurveysintheeasternChukchi andwesternBeaufortseasUsingstatisticalspatialanalysistoolshotspotsforseabirdswalrusandgraywhaleswereidentifiedintheChukchiSeawhilehotspotsforbowheadwhalesandsealsweredescribednearBarrowCanyonandalongtheBeaufortSeashelfand slopeHotspotsforbelugasoccurredinboththeChukchiandBeaufortseasInsummerthreehotspotsweresharedbybothseabirdsandmarinemammalsintheChukchiSeawaters offshoreWainwrightsouthofHannaShoalandatthemouthofBarrowCanyonOnlytheBarrowCanyonhotspotwasoccupiedthroughthefallSharedhotspotswerecharacterized bystrongfrontscausedbyupwellingandcurrentswhichcanservetoaggregatepreyUsingadifferentapproachCittaetal(2015)providedetailedanalysisoftheseasonalmovementsandhabitatusebyasinglespeciesthroughoutoneyearLocationsfrom54bowheadwhales (Balaenamysticetus)obtainedbysatellitetelemetryfrom200602012wereusedtoidentifya totalofsixcore0useareasintheBeaufort(3)Chukchi(1)andnorthernBering(2)seas Takentogetherthetimingofuse(phenology)andphysicalcharacteristics(oceanographyseaiceandwinds)associatedwitheachareadescribeaseasonalcircuitbythewhalesthroughareasthoughttosupportelevatedpreydensities

Passiveacousticsamplinghasbecomeacommonyear0roundtooltodetectcallingmarine mammalsinarcticseas(Mooreetal2006Staffordetal2012)Since2007therehasbeenanespeciallystrongsamplingeffortassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationinthenortheast ChukchiandwesternBeaufortseas(egHannayetal2013 httpwwwafscnoaagovnmmlcetaceanchaozphp)Theserecorderdeployments augmentalong0standingacousticstudyinthecentralBeaufortSea(Blackwelletal2007)andmorerecentdeploymentsintheBeringStraitregion(KStaffordperscomm)HeretoforeresearchersconductedeachofthesestudiesindependentlyofoneanotherClark etal(2015)presentsanovelsynthesisofthecombinedoutputfromsixresearcheffortsusingfourtypesofrecordersandavarietyofsub0samplingandanalysisschemestodescribean lsquoacousticyearrsquointhelifeofthebowheadwhaleDetectionsofbowheadcallsfrom20sitesextendingover2300kmfromthenorthernBeringSeatothesoutheastBeaufortSeawere combinedovera140monthperiod(200902010)todescribewhaleoccurrenceacrosstheir rangeThespatialandtemporalvariabilityinsoundlevelswithinthefrequencybandofbowheadwhaleswasalsoquantifiedThelowestunderwatersoundlevelsoccurredfromlate NovemberuntilMayintheChukchiSeaDuringwinter200902010singingbowheadwhaleselevatedbroadbandsoundlevelsforroughly38daysinthenorthernBeringSeafollowedby

28

asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

29

ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

31

Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

32

(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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GrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(2014)ThePacificArcticRegionAnIntroductionIn GrebmeierJMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionSpringerDordrecht

48

GrebmeierJMMooreSE Overland JEFrey KEandGradinger R2010BiologicalresponsetorecentPacificArcticseaiceretreatsEOS91(18)1610168

GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarke JTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSH LovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015aEcosystemcharacteristicsand processesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114

GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDenisenkoSGIkenKKedraMSerratosC 2015bTime0seriesbenthiccommunitycompositionandbiomassandassociatedenvironmentalcharacteristicsintheChukchiSeaduringtheRUSALCA200402012programOceanography231160133

GrebmeierJMCooperLWAshjianCABluhmBACampbellRBDuntonKEMooreJ OkkonenSSheffieldGTrefryJPasternakSY2015cPacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(PacMARS)FinalReportNorthPacificResearchBoard259pp

HannayDEDelarueJMouyXMartinBSLearyDOswaldJNVallartaJ2013 MarinemammalacousticdetectionsinthenortheasternChukchiSeaSeptember2007ndashJuly2011ContinentalShelfResearch671270146

HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015Change intheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

HillVArdynaMLeeSHVarelaDEinpressDecadaltrendsinphytoplankton productioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

preferenceandbehaviorinthenortheasternChukchiSea1982084RepIntWhale Commn362730279

MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

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OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

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TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

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ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 13: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

SOARPHASE1ANDSOARPHASE2

Task5(ScienceProducts)wasoriginallyenvisagedtoresultinaspecialvolumeofpeer0reviewedpaperspossiblysupplementedbyanadditionalsmallersetofpapersinatheme sectionorothersimilaroutletHoweverfollowingcompletionofthefirstphaseofSOARculminatinginthe2015specialissueofProgressinOceanography(MooreandStabeno2015 seeResultssectionbelowformoreinformation)therewasahighlevelofinterestinextendingSOARtoincludeadditionalsynthesisThereforethesecondphaseofSOARwas developedbuildingfromaninformalmid0projectworkshopandresultinginasecondfullspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchIIFurtherdetailisprovidedinthefollowingsections

RESULTS)

FOUNDATIONALTASKSSCIENCESTEERINGCOMMITTEEANDWORKSHOP

THESOARSCIENCESTEERINGCOMMITTEE

AScienceSteeringCommittee(SCC)comprisedofscientistsandAlaskancoastalcommunityrepresentativeswasestablished(Table1)ThefirstoffiveannualSSCmeetingswasheldfrom103November2011attheWatertownHotelinSeattleWATheSSCidentifiedrelevantprojects anddatasourcesdevelopedthreedraftsciencethemesandrelatedquestionsandidentified potentialparticipantsandleadersforassociatedinterdisciplinaryAnalyticalTeamsthatwould beformedatSOARScienceWorkshopMultiplesubsequentmeetingsfurtherdevelopedthe sciencethemesandprovidedguidanceforSOARtasks(Table2)

)

Table)1))List)of)Science)Steering)Committee)members)and)institutions)

ScienceSteeringCommitteeMember

Affiliation Location

RobynAngliss NOAANationalMarineMammalLaboratory

SeattleWA

CarinAshjian WoodsHoleOceanographic Institution

WoodsHoleMA

ChristopherClark CornellUniversity IthacaNY

13

JacquelineGrebmeier UniversityofMarylandCenterforEnvironmental Studies

SolomonsMD

CraigGeorge NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EskimoWhaling

ComissionKawerak NomeAK

SueMoore NOAANMFS SeattleWA ChadJay USGeologicalSurvey AnchorageAK TimRagan MarineMammalCommission WashingtonDC PhyllisStabeno NOAAPMEL SeattleWA RobertSuydam NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK TomWeingartner UniversityofAlaska0

Fairbanks FairbanksAK

)

Table)2)List)of)SOAR)SSC)Teleconferences)and)inVperson)meetings)

SOAR)SSC)Meeting) SSCTeleconference1

Date) 21September2011

SSCTeleconference2 18October2011 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingSeattleWA 11November2011 SSCTeleconference3 16February2012 SSCTeleconference4 6April2012 SOARMarchWorkshop 14016March2012 SSCTeleconference5 6July2012 SSCTeleconference6 6October2012 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 21January2013 SSCTeleconference7) 9April2013 SSCTeleconference8) 14November2013 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 20January2014 SSCTeleconference9) 12January2015 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 23January2015 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK(informal)) 26January2016

SOARWORKSHOPndashMARCH2012

TheSOARScienceWorkshopwasheldfrom14016March2012attheEganCenterinAnchorageAlaskaTheSOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandProjectCoordinatorallmembersoftheScienceSteeringCommitteeand42ofthe43invitedSOARContributorsattendedthe

14

workshopDraftScienceThemesandQuestionsdevelopedbytheSOARScienceSteeringCommitteewereprovidedtoparticipantsinadvanceoftheworkshopsummarizedas(i)EcosystemResponsetoBottom0upandorTop0downForcing(ii)MarineBirdsMammalsandFishasEcosystemSentinelsand(iii)AcousticEcology

TheprimarygoalsoftheScienceWorkshopwereto(1)refinetheDraftScienceThemesandQuestions(2)formresearchteamstoundertakeanalysisinsupportofdevelopmentofpeer0reviewedpapersand(3)developshortproposalstoidentifyprojectmilestonesandfinancialsupportrequiredtocompletesyntheticprojects

DayoneoftheworkshopconsistedofdisciplinarytalksinplenarysessiontoprovideallparticipantswiththecurrentstateofknowledgeineachareaofstudyDuringdaytwooftheworkshopsciencethemeswererevisedtoreflectgroupinputParticipantsdividedintothree theme0basedbreakoutgroupsandbegandevelopingsciencequestionstoproposeforSOARDaythreeoftheworkshopbeganwithaplenarysummaryofthepreviousdayrsquosprogress followedbybreakoutgroupstowriteandsubmitone0pageproposalsfortheprojects requestingfundingOntheafternoonofthethirddayanopen0sessionwasheldto communicateworkshopprogresstoBOEMscientistsandmanagerscolleaguesfromtheNorthPacificResearchBoardandAlaskaOceanObservingSystemindustryrepresentativesand otherinterestedpartiesFurtherdetailsoftheSOARWorkshopcanbefoundintheSOAR WorkshopReport(SheffieldGuyetal2012a)andseealsoSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)

15

SCIENCEPRODUCTANDCOMMUNICATIONTASKS

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE1 FollowingtheinitialSOARthemeselectionsandteamdevelopmentandincorporatinganextensivepeer0reviewphaseledbytheprojectPIsandcoordinatorthefirstphaseofthe SOARprojectculminatedinaspecialvolumeofProgressinOceanographypublishedinAugust 2015(Fig2Table3)Thisspecialissueincluded16fullpapersplusanintroductionpaper authoredbythetwoprojectPIs

Figure)2)Cover)of)the)first)SOAR)special) volume)published)in)Progress)in)

Oceanography)in)2015)

16

Table)3))Papers)included)in)the)2015)SOAR)special)issue)of)Progress)in)Oceanography)

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsofthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011 WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressinOceanography13612031 FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015Divergentpatternsofrecent seaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049 WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059 ArrigoKRvanDijkenGL2015ContinuedincreasesinArcticOceanprimaryproductionProgressinOceanography13660070 MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJNFeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091 GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarkeJTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSHLovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015EcosystemcharacteristicsandprocessesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114 LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132 CrawfordJAQuakenbushLTCittaJJ2015Acomparisonofringedandbeardedsealdietconditionandproductivitybetweenhistorical(1975ndash1984)andrecent(2003ndash2012)periodsintheAlaskanBeringandChukchiseasProgressinOceanography1361330150 DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarctic seaiceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161 LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015LimitstobenthicfeedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchangingseaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174 KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015SeasonalspatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareas ProgressinOceanography1361750200 CittaJJQuakenbushLTOkkonenSRDruckenmillerMLMaslowskiWClement0KinneyJGeorgeJCBrowerHSmallRJAshjianCJHarwoodLAHeide0Joslashrgensen MP2015Ecologicalcharacteristicsofcore0useareasusedbyBeringndashChukchindashBeaufort(BCB)bowheadwhales2006ndash2012ProgressinOceanography1362010222

17

ClarkCWBerchokCLBlackwellSBHannayDEJonesJPonirakisDStafford KM2015AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasProgressinOceanography1362230240 MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationshipbetweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249 GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgressinOceanography1362500262 HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015ChangeintheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE2

Followingthe2015publicationofthefirstSOARspecialissueinProgressinOceanography theSOARprojectSSCandparticipantsdecidedtopursuecoordinatethepublicationofasetofpapersinfullsecondspecialissueThosePhase2topicsandpaperleadswerediscussedat theannualSOARSSCmeetinginJanuary2015Baseduponsuggestionsatthismeeting102pageproposalswererequestedfromsuggestedpaperleadsandproposalswerethen subsequentlydevelopedintopublishedpapersThemajorityofpapersforthesecondspecial issuewerecompletedandinpressbytheendof2017(Table4)withfinalpublicationofthe completespecialissueinDeepSeaResearchIIndashTopicalStudiesinOceanographyexpectedby latesummer2018

Table)4))Papers)to)appear)in)the)SOAR)2nd)Phase)special)issue)published)in)Deep)Sea)Research)Part)II)

Corresponding) Author Manuscript)Title

SueMoore IntroductionTheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)Project

MuyinWang SeaiceandoceancharacteristicsintheChukchiSeabyselectedCMIP5modelsthepresentandthefuture

NicholasBond DiagnosisofphysicaloceanographiceventsintheChukchiSea usinganoceanreanalysis

VictoriaHill DecadaltrendsinphytoplanktonproductioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

18

JessicaCross FormationandtransportofcorrosivewaterinthePacificArcticRegion

LeeCooper DepositionpatternsontheChukchiShelfusingradionuclide inventoriesinrelationtosurfacesedimentcharacteristics

Matthew Druckenmiller

Trendsinsea0icecoverandupwellingpotentialwithinBowheadwhaleuseareasintheWesternArctic

KateStafford AcousticecologyofbowheadandbelugawhalesincoreuseareasintheBeaufortandChukchiSeas

JohnCitta Oceanographiccharacteristicsassociatedwithbowheadwhale movementsintheChukchiSea

JohnCitta SeasonaldistributionandoverlapofmarinemammalsintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseas

KimberlyRand UsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

ElizabethLogerwell Environmentaldriversofbenthicfishdistributioninandaround BarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwesternBeaufortSea

KathleenStafford BelugawhalesintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaasynthesisofavailableinformationontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StephenOkkonen Relationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskanBeaufortSea

MartinRobards UnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesintheAlaskanArcticPlace0basedcollaborationswithAlaskaNative communities

SueMoore TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)ModellinkingtemporalprocessestocontiguousdomainsinthePacificArctic

19

PRESENTATIONSANDPOSTERSATSCIENTIFICMEETINGS

SOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandcontributorsmademorethan50presentationsincludinginformationaboutthissynthesiseffortatavarietyofscientificmeetingsworkshopsandwebinarsAfulllistofthesepresentationsisprovidedinAppendixC

OTHERCOMMUNICATIONOFSYNTHESISAPPROACHANDPRODUCTS

TheSynthesisofArcticResearchwebsitelocatedathttpswwwpmelnoaagovsoar providesbackgroundinformationandup0to0datescienceproductinformationtostakeholders andthegeneralpublicThewebsitewillcontinuetobeliveandhostedbyNOAA

Severalpeer0reviewedpaperswerepublishedthatalsoappealtoamoregeneralortrans0 disciplineaudienceincludingSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)andSheffieldGuyetal(2016)SOARsynthesisresultswerefeaturedinnumerousnewspapersonlinefeaturesmagazines andmore

SYNTHESIS)SUMMARY)AND)DISCUSSION)

SOARPHASEI

ThefirstphaseofSOARresultedinfifteenpaperspublishedinaspecialissueofProgressin Oceanographyin2015(Table3)HereweprovideabroadoverviewanddiscussionofthepapersinthatspecialissuedrawnfromtheIntroductiontothatissue(MooreandStabeno 2015)

1 Introduction)

TheinitiationoftheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)projectcoincidedwiththerecognitionthatbiophysicalchangesinthePacificArcticregionweresoextremecomparedtotherecentpastthattheyacquiredthemonikerlsquonewnormalrsquo(Jeffriesetal2013) ConsequentlydescribingthebiophysicalpropertiesofthelsquonewlsquoPacificArcticmarineecosystemwasfoundationaltotheSOAReffortandthefocusoffivepapersinthefirstspecial issueExaminingbiologicalresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingthenbecamethetaskofresearchersfocusedonthestudyoflowertrophiclevel(LTL)communitiesanduppertrophiclevel(UTL)speciesTwopapersprovideintegratedresultsfromdirectsamplingofbenthic andfishcommunitieswhilethreepapersreportonchangesinLTLspeciesoccurrenceinferredbyshiftsinthedietsofsealsandmarinebirdsSixpapersfocusonUTLspecieswith fourpresentinginformationonseasonaloccurrenceinhotspotorcore0usehabitatsandtwo describingvariabilityinmarinemammalbodyconditioninthecontextofdecadal0scale

20

environmentalvariabilityTogetherthesepapersprovideasyntheticcontexttofocushypothesesunderpinningthenextdecadeofresearchinthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

2)Biophysics)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

ThePacificArcticmarineecosystemiscomprisedofinflowshelves(northernBeringandChukchiseas)coupledtointeriorshelves(EastSiberianandBeaufortseas)withthe contrastingbiophysicsofthesedomainssummarizedinCarmacketal(2006)Circulationon bothinflowandinteriorshelvesislinkedtopan0arcticteleconnectionmechanisms(egArcticOscillation)withinteriorshelvesalsostronglyinfluencedbytheseasonaloutflowof relativelywarmfreshwaterfromarcticriversEvaluatingecosystemstatusandtrendsinthePacificArcticwasthefocusofarecentbookwith10(of12)chaptersdevotedtoobservationsandmodelingoftheatmosphereoceanphysicsandchemistry(GrebmeierandMaslowski 2014)Thepapersinthefirstspecialissueaddtothatbodyofknowledgeespeciallywithregardtobiologicalresponsestobiophysicaldriversandinthiswaycontributetoamore holisticunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

21)PhysicalobservationsandopenwaterprojectionsinthelsquonewnormalrsquoPacificArctic

Recentobservations(200302013)ofenvironmentalchangesinthePacificArcticsupportthecontentionthatanewnormalclimateisemerging(Fig3Jeffriesetal2013Woodetal 2015)

Figure)3))Highlights)of)recent)biophysical)changes)in)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

21

Theiconicindicatorofthischangeisthedramaticsummertimelossofseaice(50byarea75byvolume)whichinsomeyears(eg2012)hasresultedinnearlyice0freeconditionsin theregionSpecificallysatellitedatafrom197902012reveallocalizedchangesinsea0ice occurrenceofupto0164daysyearintheCanadaBasinand0124daysyearintheBeaufort Seawhichacceleratedto0657daysyear(CanadaBasin)and01284daysyear(Beaufort Sea)duringthe200002012period(Freyetal2015)Multiyearseaicehasalmostentirelydisappearedwithinter0annualvariabilityiniceconcentrationlargelydrivenbywindforcing intheBeaufortSeaIntheCanadaBasindifferencesinannualseaiceareprimarilythermallydrivenwhilesea0iceextentisinfluencedbybothwindsandheatontheBeringSeashelf

Thesummeratmosphericpatternsinfluenceoceancirculationfreshwaterpathwaysand movementandmeltingofseaiceDuringthelastdecadetheintensificationoftheBeaufortHigh(OgiandWallace2012)resultedinanomaloussummerwindsTheseanomalouswinds togetherwiththelossofmulti0yeariceweretheprimaryfactorsthattransformedtheChukchiandnorthernBeaufortseasintoanopenwaterenvironment(Woodetal2015)InparticulartheeasternBeaufortSeaappearstobeparticularlysusceptibletoanomalouswindsthrough theireffectontheadvectionofwarmfreshwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumeInadditiontransportanomaliesintheBeringStraitaredeterminedbycompetinglarge0scale atmosphericpatternstheBeaufortHighandAleutianLow(Danielsonetal2014)NotablychangesinBeringStraitflowthroughcanimpacttheworldclimatefarbeyondtheBeringStraitandArcticregion(egHuetal2015)

Freyetal(2015)investigatetheinfluenceofthePacificDecadalOscillation(PDO)andtheArcticOscillation(AO)onthepersistenceofseaiceinsummerandwinterTheyfoundsignificantnegativecorrelationsbetweenseaiceonthesoutheasternBeringSeashelfandthe PDOinwinteraswellassignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweentheAOandsea0icecoverjustsouthofStLawrenceIslandSignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweenthePDOandsea iceintheCanadaBasin0CanadianArchipelagowerefoundinsummeraswellasbetweentheAOandseaiceintheChukchi0BeaufortseasThisnovelinvestigationofteleconnections betweenthePDOtheAOandsea0icecoverprovidesacriticalstepinunderstandinghow globalandregionalclimatepatternsinfluencethephysicsofthePacificArcticregion

Theunprecedentedlossofseaicehasresultedinatremendousincreaseinopen0water susceptibletorapidsolarheatingwithadditionalheatandfreshwaterprovidedbya50 increaseinPacificWaterinflowatBeringStraitfrom200102011(Woodgateetal2012 Woodetal2015)TheinfluenceofincreasedheatstoredintheChukchiandBeaufortseasis notwellunderstoodSuggestionsthatheatreleasedtotheatmosphereinlateautumnandwinterdrivesaspectsofmid0latitudeweatherremainspeculativelargelyduetotheshort timerecordavailable(Woodetal2015)FresheningoftheArcticOceanhasbeenoccurring atleastsincethe1990s(egGilesetal2012)Severalexplanationshavebeenproposed includingincreasedsea0icemeltfresherPacificWaterflowingthroughBeringStraitchanges inthemagnitudeofriverdischargeandthemeanstrengtheningoftheBeaufortHighInrecentyearsrelativelystrongeasterlywindshavebeencommonduetotheArctic0wide

22

patternofcirculationaroundanintensifiedBeaufortHighUndertheseconditionsfreshand warmwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumecanbelaterallytransportedfaroutintothe BeaufortSea(Woodetal2015)

WangandOverland(2015)comparedresultsfromtwelvecoupledclimatemodelstoproducecompositeprojectionsofthedurationofopenwaterintheChukchiandBeaufortseasat decadalintervalsfrom201002050andin2090Forwatersnorthofthe70degNopen0water durationshiftsfrom304monthsin2010toaprojected~5monthsby2040Projectedopen0 waterdurationisaboutonemonthlongeralongthesamelatitudesintheChukchiSeacomparedwiththeBeaufortSeawithuncertaintyofaboutplusmn1monthestimatedfromtherangeofmodelresultsAllmodelsprojectedopen0waterdurationtoexpandquicklyoverthe nextthreedecadeswhichwillimpactregionaleconomicaccessandpotentiallyalterecosystemsYetthePacificArcticregionwillremaincoveredwiththinfirst0yearicefrom JanuarythroughMayintothesecondhalfofthecenturyduetoseasonallackofsunlight

22Changesinprimaryproductionandoceanacidification

Thedramaticlossofsea0iceextentandvolumehasresultedinaconcomitantincreaseinlightpenetrationintheupperoceanacrosstheArcticGiventhethinningandarealreductionof seaiceafundamentalquestionariseshavethesechangesfosteredanincreaseinmarineprimaryproductionSpecificallyisthePacificArcticregionmoreproductivethanitwasthreedecadesagoIntheAtlanticArcticLeuetal(2011)measuredprimaryproductionby bothicealgaeandphytoplanktonincontrastingyears(2007008)ofsea0icecoverinaSvalbardfjordandconcludedthatearliericebreakupcorrespondedwithearlieronsetofa phytoplanktonbloomSimilarlyTremblayetal(2012)reportincreasedprimaryproductionfor2007008associatedwithextremesea0iceretreatsandincreasedupwellingatstations locatedsouthandeastofBanksIslandinthesoutheasternBeaufortSeaButcanconclusions drawnfrommeasurementssorestrictedinspaceandtimebeextrapolatedtolargerarcticregionsUsingsatelliteimageryArrigoandvanDijken(2015)investigatedchangesinseaice atbothregionalandbasinscalesfrom199802012andestimatedhowthesechangeshaveimpactedratesofnetprimaryproduction(NPP)byphytoplanktonTheyreportthatannual NPPincreased30duringthisperiodwiththelargestincreasesontheinteriorshelves (includingtheEastSiberianandBeaufort)andsmallerincreasesoninflowshelves(includingtheChukchi)OutflowshelveseitherexhibitednochangeinannualNPPoradeclineperhaps indicatingthatnutrientshadbeenconsumedfurtherupstreamIncreasedannualNPPwasoftenbutnotalwaysassociatedwithreducedsea0iceextentandresultantlonger phytoplanktongrowingseason

HumanactivitieshaveincreasedtheatmosphericCO2concentrationbyabout40sincethebeginningoftheindustrialageanditisestimatedthattheoceanhasabsorbedmorethan25

23

ofthetotalanthropogenicemissions(Mathisetal2015)TheoceanicuptakeofCO2triggersaseriesofchemicalreactionsinthesurfaceoceanthatreducespHandresultsinocean acidification(OA)InshortOAmakesseawatercorrosivetocalciumcarbonatemineralswhichmanymarineorganismsrelyonforbodystructuresHigh0latitudeoceanshave naturallylowcarbonateconcentrationssoareconsideredtobemorevulnerabletotheimpactsofOAbecauseadditionalcarbonatelossrepresentsamuchgreaterproportionalchangetothesystemInanovelstudyMathisetalprovideariskassessmentofOAimpacts tocommercialandtraditionalfisheriesfocusedonshellfishsalmonandfinfishTheresultant indexsuggeststhatwhilethenorthernBeringSeaisatmediumriskfromOAimpactsto fisheriesPacificArcticwatersnorthoftheSewardPeninsulaarecurrentlyatlowriskduelargelytoalackofdependenceonthesefoodsources

3)Lower)Trophic)Level)Communities)signals)from)direct)and)indirect)sampling

ThepredominantconceptualmodelframinghowmarineecosystemsinthePacificArctic respondtoreducedseaiceisbasedonchangesanticipatedfromashiftinpelagic0benthic coupling(Fig4)

Figure)4))Generalized)conceptual)model)depicting)the)influence)of)sea)ice)on)pelagicVbenthic)coupling)on) Pacific)Arctic)continental)shelves)

24

OnthebroadshelvesthatcomprisemuchofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemnewprimaryproductionfromsea0icealgaeandphytoplanktonbloomsfallstotheseafloortosupportrich benthiccommunities(Grebmeier2012)Asseaicethinsandretreatsearlierintheseasonitisanticipatedthatearlierandlargerphytoplanktonbloomswillswitchfromabenthic0 dominatedtoapelagic0dominatedmarineecosystemThisshiftwillcascadethroughthesystemsupportingnovelcommunitiesofsecondaryandtertiaryconsumers(zooplanktonandforagefishes)anduppertrophiclevelmarinebirdsandmammalsIndeedGrebmeieret al(2006)suggestedthatthistypeofecosystemshiftisalreadyunderwayinthemarinecommunitiesofthenorthernBeringSeaThePacificArcticisoftendescribedasabenthic0 dominatedmarineecosystemonethatdoesnotsupportalargebiomassorspeciesdiversityoffishesAdescriptionofconditionsthathavefosteredexistingbenthichotspotsoffersa solidfoundationforassessingfuturechangeswhileanaccountingoftheexistingcommunitiesofmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsprovidesastartingpointuponwhichtobuildalong0termrecord)

31Benthichotspotsandmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitats

ArecordofextantconditionsiskeytointerpretingmarineecosystemresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingnowevidentinthePacificArcticSucharecordexistsforfourbenthic lsquohotspotrsquocommunitiesinthenorthernBeringandChukchiseas(Grebmeieretal2015a)but notformarinefishesLong0termsamplingofbenthicmacrofaunalcommunitiesindicatesthatthebenthichotspotshavemaintainedconsistentlyhighbiomassforuptofourdecadesdueto reoccurrenceofseasonallyreliablemoderate0to0highwatercolumnproductioncoupledwithexportofcarbonfromoverlyingwaterstotheseafloorUppertrophiclevelbenthivorestargetpreyaggregationsineachofthehotspotsOverallbottom0upforcingbyhydrography andfoodsupplytothebenthosinfluencespersistenceandcompositionofbenthicpreywhichinturninfluencestheuppertrophiclevelspeciescompositionandseasonaloccurrence Whenconsistentlysampledintandemthesebenthos0benthivoreconnectionscanfacilitate useofUTLspeciesassentinelsofshiftsinpreycompositionandabundance(Mooreetal2014)

Sincethe2000stherehavebeenahostofArcticmarinefishsurveysintheChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasprecipitatedbybothscientificinterestintheimpactsofclimatechangeandcommercialinterestinoilandgasdevelopment(Logerwelletal2015)Resultsfrom thesesurveysprovideanovelopportunitytocompareArcticfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsrangingfromlagoonsandbeachestobenthicandpelagiccontinental shelfwatersAsynthesisofdatafromthesesurveysrevealedmoresimilaritiesthandifferencesinhabitatusebetweenthetwoseasForexamplenearshorehabitatisusedbyallageclassesofforagefishesandisalsoanurseryareaforotherspeciesinboththeChukchiand westernBeaufortseasNotablysomecommercialspeciesmaybeexpandingtheirrangenorthtothesewatersincludingchinooksalmon(Oncorhynchustshawytscha)walleyepollock (Gaduschalcogrammus)andflatfishes(Pleuronectidae)Inadditionasynthesisofinformationonrelativeabundanceandageofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)andsaffroncod

25

(Eleginusgracilis)bothkeypreyspeciesinArcticfoodwebssupportedthedevelopmentoflifehistoryanddistributionmodelsthatwillinformfutureresearchontrophicdynamicsin thePacificArcticsector

32Inferencesofmarineecosystemshiftsfromsealsseabirdsandseaducks

Additionalinformationregardingtheimpactoflsquonewnormalrsquobiophysicalconditionsonlowertrophiclevelspeciescanbeinferredfromshiftsinthedietandbodyconditionofmarine mammalsandbirdsCrawfordetal(2015)comparedthedietandconditionofringedseals(Pusahispida)andbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)harvestedintheAlaskanBeringand Chukchiseasduringhistorical(197501984)andrecent(200302012)periodsTheyfoundthe proportionoffishinthedietofbothspeciesincreasedintherecentreduced0iceperiodcomparedtothehistoricalperiodInadditionringedsealsgrewfasterhadthickerblubber andmaturedtwoyearsearlierBeardedsealshadthickerblubberintherecentperiodbut didnotmanifesttheotherchangesreportedfortheringedsealsAlthoughanumberofthe comparisonswerenotstatisticallysignificanttakentogethertheseobservationssuggestgreaterfishavailabilityintheAlaskanBering0Chukchimarineecosystemsupportinggood bodyconditionintheseals

AsinthesealpaperDivokyetal(2015)parsedalong0termdatasetintorecent(200302012)andhistorical(197501984)periodstocompareoceanographicconditionsnestlingdietandfledgingsuccessatablackguillemot(Cepphusgryllemandtii)breedingcolonyinthewestern BeaufortSeaFrom15Julyto1Septemberseaiceretreatedanaverageof18kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof958kmfromthecolonyduringthehistoricalperiodwhileinthe recentperiodiceretreataveraged98kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof5069kmSeasurfacetemperaturenearthecolonyincreasedby29⁰CbetweenthetwoperiodsWhileArcticcodcomprisedover95ofthepreyprovidedtonestlingsinthehistoricalperiodthis proportiondecreasedtolt5ofthenestlingdietduringmostyearsintherecentperiodwhendemersalsculpin(Cottidae)comprisedthemajorityofthedietTheshiftawayfrom Arcticcodwasassociatedwithafive0foldincreaseintherateofnestlingstarvationand reductionsinnestlinggrowthandfledgingmassConverselyannualadultsurvivalduringthe nonbreedingseason(September0May)showednosignificantdifferencebetweenthetwo periodssuggestingnochangeintheavailabilityofArcticcodorinoverallpreyavailabilityto blackguillemotsintheirBeringSeawinteringarea

IncontrasttoarelianceonpelagicpreyLovvornetal(2015)investigatedpotentialclimate0 relatedlimitstobenthicfeedingbyseaducksalongtheirmigrationcorridorinthenortheasternChukchiSeaKingeiders(Somateriaspectabilis)primarilyeatclams(bivalves) duringmigrationandrecentsamplinghasshownthatdenseclamassemblagesoccuronlyinspecificlocationsalongthemigrationcorridorSeaicecanpreventeidersfromreachingtheseprimefeedingsiteswithsatellitedataforApril‒May(2001‒2013)showingthataccess canvaryfrom0‒100InawarmingandincreasinglyvariableclimateaccesstobenthicfeedingsitesmaybefurthererodedbytheeffectsofwindsonunconsolidatediceThese

26

resultsunderscoretheimportanceofmaintainingarangeofbenthicfeedingareasthroughoutthemigrationcorridortoensurepreyavailabilitytotheeiderseachyear)

4)Upper)Trophic)Level)Species)marine)birds)and)mammals)as)ecosystem)sentinels

Astoppredatorsmarinebirdsandmammalsmustadapttochangesintheirhabitatsresultingfromphysicalforcingandtherebycanserveassentinelstoecosystemshifts(Mooreetal2014MooreandGulland2014)ResponsesofUTLspeciestoalteredhabitatscanbe categorizedasextrinsicincludingshiftsinrangemigratorytiming(phenology)orregionsofhighabundance(hotspots)orintrinsicincludingchangesindietbodyconditionand chemicalcomposition(Fig5)

Figure)5)Marine)birds)and)mammals)are)upper)trophic)level)(UTL))species)that)reflect)ecosystem) alterations)by)changes)in)habitat)use)(extrinsic))and)body)condition)(intrinsic))revealing)fundamental) changes)in)marine)ecosystems)

Responsesareinter0relatedsuchthatashiftinrangephenologyoruseofhotspotswillbe reflectedinchangesindietbodyconditionandchemistryItisthisconnectionthatallowsus

27

todetectecosystemreorganizationbytrackingchangesintheecologyandphysiologyofUTL speciesAlthoughtherehavebeennocoordinatedlong0termstudiesofUTLspeciesinthe PacificArcticexaminingthisconnectionasynthesisofinformationfromvisualsurveyssatellitetaggingofindividualsandyear0roundacousticdetectionsprovidesanecological foundationthatcanprovideabaselinetoinformfutureinvestigations

41Seasonaloccurrencehotspothabitatsandacousticecology

Kuletzetal(2015)depictspatialpatternsofrelativeabundanceofseabirdsandmarinemammalsinsummerandfallderivedfromsixyearsofvisualsurveysintheeasternChukchi andwesternBeaufortseasUsingstatisticalspatialanalysistoolshotspotsforseabirdswalrusandgraywhaleswereidentifiedintheChukchiSeawhilehotspotsforbowheadwhalesandsealsweredescribednearBarrowCanyonandalongtheBeaufortSeashelfand slopeHotspotsforbelugasoccurredinboththeChukchiandBeaufortseasInsummerthreehotspotsweresharedbybothseabirdsandmarinemammalsintheChukchiSeawaters offshoreWainwrightsouthofHannaShoalandatthemouthofBarrowCanyonOnlytheBarrowCanyonhotspotwasoccupiedthroughthefallSharedhotspotswerecharacterized bystrongfrontscausedbyupwellingandcurrentswhichcanservetoaggregatepreyUsingadifferentapproachCittaetal(2015)providedetailedanalysisoftheseasonalmovementsandhabitatusebyasinglespeciesthroughoutoneyearLocationsfrom54bowheadwhales (Balaenamysticetus)obtainedbysatellitetelemetryfrom200602012wereusedtoidentifya totalofsixcore0useareasintheBeaufort(3)Chukchi(1)andnorthernBering(2)seas Takentogetherthetimingofuse(phenology)andphysicalcharacteristics(oceanographyseaiceandwinds)associatedwitheachareadescribeaseasonalcircuitbythewhalesthroughareasthoughttosupportelevatedpreydensities

Passiveacousticsamplinghasbecomeacommonyear0roundtooltodetectcallingmarine mammalsinarcticseas(Mooreetal2006Staffordetal2012)Since2007therehasbeenanespeciallystrongsamplingeffortassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationinthenortheast ChukchiandwesternBeaufortseas(egHannayetal2013 httpwwwafscnoaagovnmmlcetaceanchaozphp)Theserecorderdeployments augmentalong0standingacousticstudyinthecentralBeaufortSea(Blackwelletal2007)andmorerecentdeploymentsintheBeringStraitregion(KStaffordperscomm)HeretoforeresearchersconductedeachofthesestudiesindependentlyofoneanotherClark etal(2015)presentsanovelsynthesisofthecombinedoutputfromsixresearcheffortsusingfourtypesofrecordersandavarietyofsub0samplingandanalysisschemestodescribean lsquoacousticyearrsquointhelifeofthebowheadwhaleDetectionsofbowheadcallsfrom20sitesextendingover2300kmfromthenorthernBeringSeatothesoutheastBeaufortSeawere combinedovera140monthperiod(200902010)todescribewhaleoccurrenceacrosstheir rangeThespatialandtemporalvariabilityinsoundlevelswithinthefrequencybandofbowheadwhaleswasalsoquantifiedThelowestunderwatersoundlevelsoccurredfromlate NovemberuntilMayintheChukchiSeaDuringwinter200902010singingbowheadwhaleselevatedbroadbandsoundlevelsforroughly38daysinthenorthernBeringSeafollowedby

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asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

29

ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

31

Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

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(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

preferenceandbehaviorinthenortheasternChukchiSea1982084RepIntWhale Commn362730279

MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Moore

TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

Mathis

UsinganEnvironmentalIntelligenceFrameworktoEvaluatetheImpactsof

OceanAcidificationintheArctic

ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

26(Jan(2017(

Moore

The

Arc

tic M

arin

e Pu

lses

Mod

el l

inki

ng a

nnua

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raph

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roce

sses

toco

ntig

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logi

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omai

ns in

the

Paci

fic A

rctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

24(Jan(2017(

VanPelt

Synt

hesi

s of A

rctic

Res

earc

h (S

OA

R) ndash

Phy

sics

to m

arin

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amm

als i

n th

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cific

Arc

tic P

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II

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22(Apr(2017(

Moore

The

Synt

hesi

s of A

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Res

earc

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OA

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rogr

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 14: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

JacquelineGrebmeier UniversityofMarylandCenterforEnvironmental Studies

SolomonsMD

CraigGeorge NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EskimoWhaling

ComissionKawerak NomeAK

SueMoore NOAANMFS SeattleWA ChadJay USGeologicalSurvey AnchorageAK TimRagan MarineMammalCommission WashingtonDC PhyllisStabeno NOAAPMEL SeattleWA RobertSuydam NorthSlopeBorough BarrowAK TomWeingartner UniversityofAlaska0

Fairbanks FairbanksAK

)

Table)2)List)of)SOAR)SSC)Teleconferences)and)inVperson)meetings)

SOAR)SSC)Meeting) SSCTeleconference1

Date) 21September2011

SSCTeleconference2 18October2011 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingSeattleWA 11November2011 SSCTeleconference3 16February2012 SSCTeleconference4 6April2012 SOARMarchWorkshop 14016March2012 SSCTeleconference5 6July2012 SSCTeleconference6 6October2012 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 21January2013 SSCTeleconference7) 9April2013 SSCTeleconference8) 14November2013 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 20January2014 SSCTeleconference9) 12January2015 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK) 23January2015 SSCAnnualin0personmeetingAnchorageAK(informal)) 26January2016

SOARWORKSHOPndashMARCH2012

TheSOARScienceWorkshopwasheldfrom14016March2012attheEganCenterinAnchorageAlaskaTheSOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandProjectCoordinatorallmembersoftheScienceSteeringCommitteeand42ofthe43invitedSOARContributorsattendedthe

14

workshopDraftScienceThemesandQuestionsdevelopedbytheSOARScienceSteeringCommitteewereprovidedtoparticipantsinadvanceoftheworkshopsummarizedas(i)EcosystemResponsetoBottom0upandorTop0downForcing(ii)MarineBirdsMammalsandFishasEcosystemSentinelsand(iii)AcousticEcology

TheprimarygoalsoftheScienceWorkshopwereto(1)refinetheDraftScienceThemesandQuestions(2)formresearchteamstoundertakeanalysisinsupportofdevelopmentofpeer0reviewedpapersand(3)developshortproposalstoidentifyprojectmilestonesandfinancialsupportrequiredtocompletesyntheticprojects

DayoneoftheworkshopconsistedofdisciplinarytalksinplenarysessiontoprovideallparticipantswiththecurrentstateofknowledgeineachareaofstudyDuringdaytwooftheworkshopsciencethemeswererevisedtoreflectgroupinputParticipantsdividedintothree theme0basedbreakoutgroupsandbegandevelopingsciencequestionstoproposeforSOARDaythreeoftheworkshopbeganwithaplenarysummaryofthepreviousdayrsquosprogress followedbybreakoutgroupstowriteandsubmitone0pageproposalsfortheprojects requestingfundingOntheafternoonofthethirddayanopen0sessionwasheldto communicateworkshopprogresstoBOEMscientistsandmanagerscolleaguesfromtheNorthPacificResearchBoardandAlaskaOceanObservingSystemindustryrepresentativesand otherinterestedpartiesFurtherdetailsoftheSOARWorkshopcanbefoundintheSOAR WorkshopReport(SheffieldGuyetal2012a)andseealsoSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)

15

SCIENCEPRODUCTANDCOMMUNICATIONTASKS

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE1 FollowingtheinitialSOARthemeselectionsandteamdevelopmentandincorporatinganextensivepeer0reviewphaseledbytheprojectPIsandcoordinatorthefirstphaseofthe SOARprojectculminatedinaspecialvolumeofProgressinOceanographypublishedinAugust 2015(Fig2Table3)Thisspecialissueincluded16fullpapersplusanintroductionpaper authoredbythetwoprojectPIs

Figure)2)Cover)of)the)first)SOAR)special) volume)published)in)Progress)in)

Oceanography)in)2015)

16

Table)3))Papers)included)in)the)2015)SOAR)special)issue)of)Progress)in)Oceanography)

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsofthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011 WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressinOceanography13612031 FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015Divergentpatternsofrecent seaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049 WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059 ArrigoKRvanDijkenGL2015ContinuedincreasesinArcticOceanprimaryproductionProgressinOceanography13660070 MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJNFeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091 GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarkeJTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSHLovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015EcosystemcharacteristicsandprocessesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114 LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132 CrawfordJAQuakenbushLTCittaJJ2015Acomparisonofringedandbeardedsealdietconditionandproductivitybetweenhistorical(1975ndash1984)andrecent(2003ndash2012)periodsintheAlaskanBeringandChukchiseasProgressinOceanography1361330150 DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarctic seaiceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161 LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015LimitstobenthicfeedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchangingseaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174 KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015SeasonalspatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareas ProgressinOceanography1361750200 CittaJJQuakenbushLTOkkonenSRDruckenmillerMLMaslowskiWClement0KinneyJGeorgeJCBrowerHSmallRJAshjianCJHarwoodLAHeide0Joslashrgensen MP2015Ecologicalcharacteristicsofcore0useareasusedbyBeringndashChukchindashBeaufort(BCB)bowheadwhales2006ndash2012ProgressinOceanography1362010222

17

ClarkCWBerchokCLBlackwellSBHannayDEJonesJPonirakisDStafford KM2015AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasProgressinOceanography1362230240 MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationshipbetweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249 GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgressinOceanography1362500262 HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015ChangeintheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE2

Followingthe2015publicationofthefirstSOARspecialissueinProgressinOceanography theSOARprojectSSCandparticipantsdecidedtopursuecoordinatethepublicationofasetofpapersinfullsecondspecialissueThosePhase2topicsandpaperleadswerediscussedat theannualSOARSSCmeetinginJanuary2015Baseduponsuggestionsatthismeeting102pageproposalswererequestedfromsuggestedpaperleadsandproposalswerethen subsequentlydevelopedintopublishedpapersThemajorityofpapersforthesecondspecial issuewerecompletedandinpressbytheendof2017(Table4)withfinalpublicationofthe completespecialissueinDeepSeaResearchIIndashTopicalStudiesinOceanographyexpectedby latesummer2018

Table)4))Papers)to)appear)in)the)SOAR)2nd)Phase)special)issue)published)in)Deep)Sea)Research)Part)II)

Corresponding) Author Manuscript)Title

SueMoore IntroductionTheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)Project

MuyinWang SeaiceandoceancharacteristicsintheChukchiSeabyselectedCMIP5modelsthepresentandthefuture

NicholasBond DiagnosisofphysicaloceanographiceventsintheChukchiSea usinganoceanreanalysis

VictoriaHill DecadaltrendsinphytoplanktonproductioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

18

JessicaCross FormationandtransportofcorrosivewaterinthePacificArcticRegion

LeeCooper DepositionpatternsontheChukchiShelfusingradionuclide inventoriesinrelationtosurfacesedimentcharacteristics

Matthew Druckenmiller

Trendsinsea0icecoverandupwellingpotentialwithinBowheadwhaleuseareasintheWesternArctic

KateStafford AcousticecologyofbowheadandbelugawhalesincoreuseareasintheBeaufortandChukchiSeas

JohnCitta Oceanographiccharacteristicsassociatedwithbowheadwhale movementsintheChukchiSea

JohnCitta SeasonaldistributionandoverlapofmarinemammalsintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseas

KimberlyRand UsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

ElizabethLogerwell Environmentaldriversofbenthicfishdistributioninandaround BarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwesternBeaufortSea

KathleenStafford BelugawhalesintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaasynthesisofavailableinformationontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StephenOkkonen Relationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskanBeaufortSea

MartinRobards UnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesintheAlaskanArcticPlace0basedcollaborationswithAlaskaNative communities

SueMoore TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)ModellinkingtemporalprocessestocontiguousdomainsinthePacificArctic

19

PRESENTATIONSANDPOSTERSATSCIENTIFICMEETINGS

SOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandcontributorsmademorethan50presentationsincludinginformationaboutthissynthesiseffortatavarietyofscientificmeetingsworkshopsandwebinarsAfulllistofthesepresentationsisprovidedinAppendixC

OTHERCOMMUNICATIONOFSYNTHESISAPPROACHANDPRODUCTS

TheSynthesisofArcticResearchwebsitelocatedathttpswwwpmelnoaagovsoar providesbackgroundinformationandup0to0datescienceproductinformationtostakeholders andthegeneralpublicThewebsitewillcontinuetobeliveandhostedbyNOAA

Severalpeer0reviewedpaperswerepublishedthatalsoappealtoamoregeneralortrans0 disciplineaudienceincludingSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)andSheffieldGuyetal(2016)SOARsynthesisresultswerefeaturedinnumerousnewspapersonlinefeaturesmagazines andmore

SYNTHESIS)SUMMARY)AND)DISCUSSION)

SOARPHASEI

ThefirstphaseofSOARresultedinfifteenpaperspublishedinaspecialissueofProgressin Oceanographyin2015(Table3)HereweprovideabroadoverviewanddiscussionofthepapersinthatspecialissuedrawnfromtheIntroductiontothatissue(MooreandStabeno 2015)

1 Introduction)

TheinitiationoftheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)projectcoincidedwiththerecognitionthatbiophysicalchangesinthePacificArcticregionweresoextremecomparedtotherecentpastthattheyacquiredthemonikerlsquonewnormalrsquo(Jeffriesetal2013) ConsequentlydescribingthebiophysicalpropertiesofthelsquonewlsquoPacificArcticmarineecosystemwasfoundationaltotheSOAReffortandthefocusoffivepapersinthefirstspecial issueExaminingbiologicalresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingthenbecamethetaskofresearchersfocusedonthestudyoflowertrophiclevel(LTL)communitiesanduppertrophiclevel(UTL)speciesTwopapersprovideintegratedresultsfromdirectsamplingofbenthic andfishcommunitieswhilethreepapersreportonchangesinLTLspeciesoccurrenceinferredbyshiftsinthedietsofsealsandmarinebirdsSixpapersfocusonUTLspecieswith fourpresentinginformationonseasonaloccurrenceinhotspotorcore0usehabitatsandtwo describingvariabilityinmarinemammalbodyconditioninthecontextofdecadal0scale

20

environmentalvariabilityTogetherthesepapersprovideasyntheticcontexttofocushypothesesunderpinningthenextdecadeofresearchinthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

2)Biophysics)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

ThePacificArcticmarineecosystemiscomprisedofinflowshelves(northernBeringandChukchiseas)coupledtointeriorshelves(EastSiberianandBeaufortseas)withthe contrastingbiophysicsofthesedomainssummarizedinCarmacketal(2006)Circulationon bothinflowandinteriorshelvesislinkedtopan0arcticteleconnectionmechanisms(egArcticOscillation)withinteriorshelvesalsostronglyinfluencedbytheseasonaloutflowof relativelywarmfreshwaterfromarcticriversEvaluatingecosystemstatusandtrendsinthePacificArcticwasthefocusofarecentbookwith10(of12)chaptersdevotedtoobservationsandmodelingoftheatmosphereoceanphysicsandchemistry(GrebmeierandMaslowski 2014)Thepapersinthefirstspecialissueaddtothatbodyofknowledgeespeciallywithregardtobiologicalresponsestobiophysicaldriversandinthiswaycontributetoamore holisticunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

21)PhysicalobservationsandopenwaterprojectionsinthelsquonewnormalrsquoPacificArctic

Recentobservations(200302013)ofenvironmentalchangesinthePacificArcticsupportthecontentionthatanewnormalclimateisemerging(Fig3Jeffriesetal2013Woodetal 2015)

Figure)3))Highlights)of)recent)biophysical)changes)in)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

21

Theiconicindicatorofthischangeisthedramaticsummertimelossofseaice(50byarea75byvolume)whichinsomeyears(eg2012)hasresultedinnearlyice0freeconditionsin theregionSpecificallysatellitedatafrom197902012reveallocalizedchangesinsea0ice occurrenceofupto0164daysyearintheCanadaBasinand0124daysyearintheBeaufort Seawhichacceleratedto0657daysyear(CanadaBasin)and01284daysyear(Beaufort Sea)duringthe200002012period(Freyetal2015)Multiyearseaicehasalmostentirelydisappearedwithinter0annualvariabilityiniceconcentrationlargelydrivenbywindforcing intheBeaufortSeaIntheCanadaBasindifferencesinannualseaiceareprimarilythermallydrivenwhilesea0iceextentisinfluencedbybothwindsandheatontheBeringSeashelf

Thesummeratmosphericpatternsinfluenceoceancirculationfreshwaterpathwaysand movementandmeltingofseaiceDuringthelastdecadetheintensificationoftheBeaufortHigh(OgiandWallace2012)resultedinanomaloussummerwindsTheseanomalouswinds togetherwiththelossofmulti0yeariceweretheprimaryfactorsthattransformedtheChukchiandnorthernBeaufortseasintoanopenwaterenvironment(Woodetal2015)InparticulartheeasternBeaufortSeaappearstobeparticularlysusceptibletoanomalouswindsthrough theireffectontheadvectionofwarmfreshwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumeInadditiontransportanomaliesintheBeringStraitaredeterminedbycompetinglarge0scale atmosphericpatternstheBeaufortHighandAleutianLow(Danielsonetal2014)NotablychangesinBeringStraitflowthroughcanimpacttheworldclimatefarbeyondtheBeringStraitandArcticregion(egHuetal2015)

Freyetal(2015)investigatetheinfluenceofthePacificDecadalOscillation(PDO)andtheArcticOscillation(AO)onthepersistenceofseaiceinsummerandwinterTheyfoundsignificantnegativecorrelationsbetweenseaiceonthesoutheasternBeringSeashelfandthe PDOinwinteraswellassignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweentheAOandsea0icecoverjustsouthofStLawrenceIslandSignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweenthePDOandsea iceintheCanadaBasin0CanadianArchipelagowerefoundinsummeraswellasbetweentheAOandseaiceintheChukchi0BeaufortseasThisnovelinvestigationofteleconnections betweenthePDOtheAOandsea0icecoverprovidesacriticalstepinunderstandinghow globalandregionalclimatepatternsinfluencethephysicsofthePacificArcticregion

Theunprecedentedlossofseaicehasresultedinatremendousincreaseinopen0water susceptibletorapidsolarheatingwithadditionalheatandfreshwaterprovidedbya50 increaseinPacificWaterinflowatBeringStraitfrom200102011(Woodgateetal2012 Woodetal2015)TheinfluenceofincreasedheatstoredintheChukchiandBeaufortseasis notwellunderstoodSuggestionsthatheatreleasedtotheatmosphereinlateautumnandwinterdrivesaspectsofmid0latitudeweatherremainspeculativelargelyduetotheshort timerecordavailable(Woodetal2015)FresheningoftheArcticOceanhasbeenoccurring atleastsincethe1990s(egGilesetal2012)Severalexplanationshavebeenproposed includingincreasedsea0icemeltfresherPacificWaterflowingthroughBeringStraitchanges inthemagnitudeofriverdischargeandthemeanstrengtheningoftheBeaufortHighInrecentyearsrelativelystrongeasterlywindshavebeencommonduetotheArctic0wide

22

patternofcirculationaroundanintensifiedBeaufortHighUndertheseconditionsfreshand warmwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumecanbelaterallytransportedfaroutintothe BeaufortSea(Woodetal2015)

WangandOverland(2015)comparedresultsfromtwelvecoupledclimatemodelstoproducecompositeprojectionsofthedurationofopenwaterintheChukchiandBeaufortseasat decadalintervalsfrom201002050andin2090Forwatersnorthofthe70degNopen0water durationshiftsfrom304monthsin2010toaprojected~5monthsby2040Projectedopen0 waterdurationisaboutonemonthlongeralongthesamelatitudesintheChukchiSeacomparedwiththeBeaufortSeawithuncertaintyofaboutplusmn1monthestimatedfromtherangeofmodelresultsAllmodelsprojectedopen0waterdurationtoexpandquicklyoverthe nextthreedecadeswhichwillimpactregionaleconomicaccessandpotentiallyalterecosystemsYetthePacificArcticregionwillremaincoveredwiththinfirst0yearicefrom JanuarythroughMayintothesecondhalfofthecenturyduetoseasonallackofsunlight

22Changesinprimaryproductionandoceanacidification

Thedramaticlossofsea0iceextentandvolumehasresultedinaconcomitantincreaseinlightpenetrationintheupperoceanacrosstheArcticGiventhethinningandarealreductionof seaiceafundamentalquestionariseshavethesechangesfosteredanincreaseinmarineprimaryproductionSpecificallyisthePacificArcticregionmoreproductivethanitwasthreedecadesagoIntheAtlanticArcticLeuetal(2011)measuredprimaryproductionby bothicealgaeandphytoplanktonincontrastingyears(2007008)ofsea0icecoverinaSvalbardfjordandconcludedthatearliericebreakupcorrespondedwithearlieronsetofa phytoplanktonbloomSimilarlyTremblayetal(2012)reportincreasedprimaryproductionfor2007008associatedwithextremesea0iceretreatsandincreasedupwellingatstations locatedsouthandeastofBanksIslandinthesoutheasternBeaufortSeaButcanconclusions drawnfrommeasurementssorestrictedinspaceandtimebeextrapolatedtolargerarcticregionsUsingsatelliteimageryArrigoandvanDijken(2015)investigatedchangesinseaice atbothregionalandbasinscalesfrom199802012andestimatedhowthesechangeshaveimpactedratesofnetprimaryproduction(NPP)byphytoplanktonTheyreportthatannual NPPincreased30duringthisperiodwiththelargestincreasesontheinteriorshelves (includingtheEastSiberianandBeaufort)andsmallerincreasesoninflowshelves(includingtheChukchi)OutflowshelveseitherexhibitednochangeinannualNPPoradeclineperhaps indicatingthatnutrientshadbeenconsumedfurtherupstreamIncreasedannualNPPwasoftenbutnotalwaysassociatedwithreducedsea0iceextentandresultantlonger phytoplanktongrowingseason

HumanactivitieshaveincreasedtheatmosphericCO2concentrationbyabout40sincethebeginningoftheindustrialageanditisestimatedthattheoceanhasabsorbedmorethan25

23

ofthetotalanthropogenicemissions(Mathisetal2015)TheoceanicuptakeofCO2triggersaseriesofchemicalreactionsinthesurfaceoceanthatreducespHandresultsinocean acidification(OA)InshortOAmakesseawatercorrosivetocalciumcarbonatemineralswhichmanymarineorganismsrelyonforbodystructuresHigh0latitudeoceanshave naturallylowcarbonateconcentrationssoareconsideredtobemorevulnerabletotheimpactsofOAbecauseadditionalcarbonatelossrepresentsamuchgreaterproportionalchangetothesystemInanovelstudyMathisetalprovideariskassessmentofOAimpacts tocommercialandtraditionalfisheriesfocusedonshellfishsalmonandfinfishTheresultant indexsuggeststhatwhilethenorthernBeringSeaisatmediumriskfromOAimpactsto fisheriesPacificArcticwatersnorthoftheSewardPeninsulaarecurrentlyatlowriskduelargelytoalackofdependenceonthesefoodsources

3)Lower)Trophic)Level)Communities)signals)from)direct)and)indirect)sampling

ThepredominantconceptualmodelframinghowmarineecosystemsinthePacificArctic respondtoreducedseaiceisbasedonchangesanticipatedfromashiftinpelagic0benthic coupling(Fig4)

Figure)4))Generalized)conceptual)model)depicting)the)influence)of)sea)ice)on)pelagicVbenthic)coupling)on) Pacific)Arctic)continental)shelves)

24

OnthebroadshelvesthatcomprisemuchofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemnewprimaryproductionfromsea0icealgaeandphytoplanktonbloomsfallstotheseafloortosupportrich benthiccommunities(Grebmeier2012)Asseaicethinsandretreatsearlierintheseasonitisanticipatedthatearlierandlargerphytoplanktonbloomswillswitchfromabenthic0 dominatedtoapelagic0dominatedmarineecosystemThisshiftwillcascadethroughthesystemsupportingnovelcommunitiesofsecondaryandtertiaryconsumers(zooplanktonandforagefishes)anduppertrophiclevelmarinebirdsandmammalsIndeedGrebmeieret al(2006)suggestedthatthistypeofecosystemshiftisalreadyunderwayinthemarinecommunitiesofthenorthernBeringSeaThePacificArcticisoftendescribedasabenthic0 dominatedmarineecosystemonethatdoesnotsupportalargebiomassorspeciesdiversityoffishesAdescriptionofconditionsthathavefosteredexistingbenthichotspotsoffersa solidfoundationforassessingfuturechangeswhileanaccountingoftheexistingcommunitiesofmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsprovidesastartingpointuponwhichtobuildalong0termrecord)

31Benthichotspotsandmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitats

ArecordofextantconditionsiskeytointerpretingmarineecosystemresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingnowevidentinthePacificArcticSucharecordexistsforfourbenthic lsquohotspotrsquocommunitiesinthenorthernBeringandChukchiseas(Grebmeieretal2015a)but notformarinefishesLong0termsamplingofbenthicmacrofaunalcommunitiesindicatesthatthebenthichotspotshavemaintainedconsistentlyhighbiomassforuptofourdecadesdueto reoccurrenceofseasonallyreliablemoderate0to0highwatercolumnproductioncoupledwithexportofcarbonfromoverlyingwaterstotheseafloorUppertrophiclevelbenthivorestargetpreyaggregationsineachofthehotspotsOverallbottom0upforcingbyhydrography andfoodsupplytothebenthosinfluencespersistenceandcompositionofbenthicpreywhichinturninfluencestheuppertrophiclevelspeciescompositionandseasonaloccurrence Whenconsistentlysampledintandemthesebenthos0benthivoreconnectionscanfacilitate useofUTLspeciesassentinelsofshiftsinpreycompositionandabundance(Mooreetal2014)

Sincethe2000stherehavebeenahostofArcticmarinefishsurveysintheChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasprecipitatedbybothscientificinterestintheimpactsofclimatechangeandcommercialinterestinoilandgasdevelopment(Logerwelletal2015)Resultsfrom thesesurveysprovideanovelopportunitytocompareArcticfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsrangingfromlagoonsandbeachestobenthicandpelagiccontinental shelfwatersAsynthesisofdatafromthesesurveysrevealedmoresimilaritiesthandifferencesinhabitatusebetweenthetwoseasForexamplenearshorehabitatisusedbyallageclassesofforagefishesandisalsoanurseryareaforotherspeciesinboththeChukchiand westernBeaufortseasNotablysomecommercialspeciesmaybeexpandingtheirrangenorthtothesewatersincludingchinooksalmon(Oncorhynchustshawytscha)walleyepollock (Gaduschalcogrammus)andflatfishes(Pleuronectidae)Inadditionasynthesisofinformationonrelativeabundanceandageofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)andsaffroncod

25

(Eleginusgracilis)bothkeypreyspeciesinArcticfoodwebssupportedthedevelopmentoflifehistoryanddistributionmodelsthatwillinformfutureresearchontrophicdynamicsin thePacificArcticsector

32Inferencesofmarineecosystemshiftsfromsealsseabirdsandseaducks

Additionalinformationregardingtheimpactoflsquonewnormalrsquobiophysicalconditionsonlowertrophiclevelspeciescanbeinferredfromshiftsinthedietandbodyconditionofmarine mammalsandbirdsCrawfordetal(2015)comparedthedietandconditionofringedseals(Pusahispida)andbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)harvestedintheAlaskanBeringand Chukchiseasduringhistorical(197501984)andrecent(200302012)periodsTheyfoundthe proportionoffishinthedietofbothspeciesincreasedintherecentreduced0iceperiodcomparedtothehistoricalperiodInadditionringedsealsgrewfasterhadthickerblubber andmaturedtwoyearsearlierBeardedsealshadthickerblubberintherecentperiodbut didnotmanifesttheotherchangesreportedfortheringedsealsAlthoughanumberofthe comparisonswerenotstatisticallysignificanttakentogethertheseobservationssuggestgreaterfishavailabilityintheAlaskanBering0Chukchimarineecosystemsupportinggood bodyconditionintheseals

AsinthesealpaperDivokyetal(2015)parsedalong0termdatasetintorecent(200302012)andhistorical(197501984)periodstocompareoceanographicconditionsnestlingdietandfledgingsuccessatablackguillemot(Cepphusgryllemandtii)breedingcolonyinthewestern BeaufortSeaFrom15Julyto1Septemberseaiceretreatedanaverageof18kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof958kmfromthecolonyduringthehistoricalperiodwhileinthe recentperiodiceretreataveraged98kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof5069kmSeasurfacetemperaturenearthecolonyincreasedby29⁰CbetweenthetwoperiodsWhileArcticcodcomprisedover95ofthepreyprovidedtonestlingsinthehistoricalperiodthis proportiondecreasedtolt5ofthenestlingdietduringmostyearsintherecentperiodwhendemersalsculpin(Cottidae)comprisedthemajorityofthedietTheshiftawayfrom Arcticcodwasassociatedwithafive0foldincreaseintherateofnestlingstarvationand reductionsinnestlinggrowthandfledgingmassConverselyannualadultsurvivalduringthe nonbreedingseason(September0May)showednosignificantdifferencebetweenthetwo periodssuggestingnochangeintheavailabilityofArcticcodorinoverallpreyavailabilityto blackguillemotsintheirBeringSeawinteringarea

IncontrasttoarelianceonpelagicpreyLovvornetal(2015)investigatedpotentialclimate0 relatedlimitstobenthicfeedingbyseaducksalongtheirmigrationcorridorinthenortheasternChukchiSeaKingeiders(Somateriaspectabilis)primarilyeatclams(bivalves) duringmigrationandrecentsamplinghasshownthatdenseclamassemblagesoccuronlyinspecificlocationsalongthemigrationcorridorSeaicecanpreventeidersfromreachingtheseprimefeedingsiteswithsatellitedataforApril‒May(2001‒2013)showingthataccess canvaryfrom0‒100InawarmingandincreasinglyvariableclimateaccesstobenthicfeedingsitesmaybefurthererodedbytheeffectsofwindsonunconsolidatediceThese

26

resultsunderscoretheimportanceofmaintainingarangeofbenthicfeedingareasthroughoutthemigrationcorridortoensurepreyavailabilitytotheeiderseachyear)

4)Upper)Trophic)Level)Species)marine)birds)and)mammals)as)ecosystem)sentinels

Astoppredatorsmarinebirdsandmammalsmustadapttochangesintheirhabitatsresultingfromphysicalforcingandtherebycanserveassentinelstoecosystemshifts(Mooreetal2014MooreandGulland2014)ResponsesofUTLspeciestoalteredhabitatscanbe categorizedasextrinsicincludingshiftsinrangemigratorytiming(phenology)orregionsofhighabundance(hotspots)orintrinsicincludingchangesindietbodyconditionand chemicalcomposition(Fig5)

Figure)5)Marine)birds)and)mammals)are)upper)trophic)level)(UTL))species)that)reflect)ecosystem) alterations)by)changes)in)habitat)use)(extrinsic))and)body)condition)(intrinsic))revealing)fundamental) changes)in)marine)ecosystems)

Responsesareinter0relatedsuchthatashiftinrangephenologyoruseofhotspotswillbe reflectedinchangesindietbodyconditionandchemistryItisthisconnectionthatallowsus

27

todetectecosystemreorganizationbytrackingchangesintheecologyandphysiologyofUTL speciesAlthoughtherehavebeennocoordinatedlong0termstudiesofUTLspeciesinthe PacificArcticexaminingthisconnectionasynthesisofinformationfromvisualsurveyssatellitetaggingofindividualsandyear0roundacousticdetectionsprovidesanecological foundationthatcanprovideabaselinetoinformfutureinvestigations

41Seasonaloccurrencehotspothabitatsandacousticecology

Kuletzetal(2015)depictspatialpatternsofrelativeabundanceofseabirdsandmarinemammalsinsummerandfallderivedfromsixyearsofvisualsurveysintheeasternChukchi andwesternBeaufortseasUsingstatisticalspatialanalysistoolshotspotsforseabirdswalrusandgraywhaleswereidentifiedintheChukchiSeawhilehotspotsforbowheadwhalesandsealsweredescribednearBarrowCanyonandalongtheBeaufortSeashelfand slopeHotspotsforbelugasoccurredinboththeChukchiandBeaufortseasInsummerthreehotspotsweresharedbybothseabirdsandmarinemammalsintheChukchiSeawaters offshoreWainwrightsouthofHannaShoalandatthemouthofBarrowCanyonOnlytheBarrowCanyonhotspotwasoccupiedthroughthefallSharedhotspotswerecharacterized bystrongfrontscausedbyupwellingandcurrentswhichcanservetoaggregatepreyUsingadifferentapproachCittaetal(2015)providedetailedanalysisoftheseasonalmovementsandhabitatusebyasinglespeciesthroughoutoneyearLocationsfrom54bowheadwhales (Balaenamysticetus)obtainedbysatellitetelemetryfrom200602012wereusedtoidentifya totalofsixcore0useareasintheBeaufort(3)Chukchi(1)andnorthernBering(2)seas Takentogetherthetimingofuse(phenology)andphysicalcharacteristics(oceanographyseaiceandwinds)associatedwitheachareadescribeaseasonalcircuitbythewhalesthroughareasthoughttosupportelevatedpreydensities

Passiveacousticsamplinghasbecomeacommonyear0roundtooltodetectcallingmarine mammalsinarcticseas(Mooreetal2006Staffordetal2012)Since2007therehasbeenanespeciallystrongsamplingeffortassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationinthenortheast ChukchiandwesternBeaufortseas(egHannayetal2013 httpwwwafscnoaagovnmmlcetaceanchaozphp)Theserecorderdeployments augmentalong0standingacousticstudyinthecentralBeaufortSea(Blackwelletal2007)andmorerecentdeploymentsintheBeringStraitregion(KStaffordperscomm)HeretoforeresearchersconductedeachofthesestudiesindependentlyofoneanotherClark etal(2015)presentsanovelsynthesisofthecombinedoutputfromsixresearcheffortsusingfourtypesofrecordersandavarietyofsub0samplingandanalysisschemestodescribean lsquoacousticyearrsquointhelifeofthebowheadwhaleDetectionsofbowheadcallsfrom20sitesextendingover2300kmfromthenorthernBeringSeatothesoutheastBeaufortSeawere combinedovera140monthperiod(200902010)todescribewhaleoccurrenceacrosstheir rangeThespatialandtemporalvariabilityinsoundlevelswithinthefrequencybandofbowheadwhaleswasalsoquantifiedThelowestunderwatersoundlevelsoccurredfromlate NovemberuntilMayintheChukchiSeaDuringwinter200902010singingbowheadwhaleselevatedbroadbandsoundlevelsforroughly38daysinthenorthernBeringSeafollowedby

28

asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

29

ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

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Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

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(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Moore

TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

Mathis

UsinganEnvironmentalIntelligenceFrameworktoEvaluatetheImpactsof

OceanAcidificationintheArctic

ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

26(Jan(2017(

Moore

The

Arc

tic M

arin

e Pu

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Mod

el l

inki

ng a

nnua

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roce

sses

toco

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eco

logi

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omai

ns in

the

Paci

fic A

rctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

24(Jan(2017(

VanPelt

Synt

hesi

s of A

rctic

Res

earc

h (S

OA

R) ndash

Phy

sics

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arin

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amm

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n th

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tic P

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II

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22(Apr(2017(

Moore

The

Synt

hesi

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OA

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 15: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

workshopDraftScienceThemesandQuestionsdevelopedbytheSOARScienceSteeringCommitteewereprovidedtoparticipantsinadvanceoftheworkshopsummarizedas(i)EcosystemResponsetoBottom0upandorTop0downForcing(ii)MarineBirdsMammalsandFishasEcosystemSentinelsand(iii)AcousticEcology

TheprimarygoalsoftheScienceWorkshopwereto(1)refinetheDraftScienceThemesandQuestions(2)formresearchteamstoundertakeanalysisinsupportofdevelopmentofpeer0reviewedpapersand(3)developshortproposalstoidentifyprojectmilestonesandfinancialsupportrequiredtocompletesyntheticprojects

DayoneoftheworkshopconsistedofdisciplinarytalksinplenarysessiontoprovideallparticipantswiththecurrentstateofknowledgeineachareaofstudyDuringdaytwooftheworkshopsciencethemeswererevisedtoreflectgroupinputParticipantsdividedintothree theme0basedbreakoutgroupsandbegandevelopingsciencequestionstoproposeforSOARDaythreeoftheworkshopbeganwithaplenarysummaryofthepreviousdayrsquosprogress followedbybreakoutgroupstowriteandsubmitone0pageproposalsfortheprojects requestingfundingOntheafternoonofthethirddayanopen0sessionwasheldto communicateworkshopprogresstoBOEMscientistsandmanagerscolleaguesfromtheNorthPacificResearchBoardandAlaskaOceanObservingSystemindustryrepresentativesand otherinterestedpartiesFurtherdetailsoftheSOARWorkshopcanbefoundintheSOAR WorkshopReport(SheffieldGuyetal2012a)andseealsoSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)

15

SCIENCEPRODUCTANDCOMMUNICATIONTASKS

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE1 FollowingtheinitialSOARthemeselectionsandteamdevelopmentandincorporatinganextensivepeer0reviewphaseledbytheprojectPIsandcoordinatorthefirstphaseofthe SOARprojectculminatedinaspecialvolumeofProgressinOceanographypublishedinAugust 2015(Fig2Table3)Thisspecialissueincluded16fullpapersplusanintroductionpaper authoredbythetwoprojectPIs

Figure)2)Cover)of)the)first)SOAR)special) volume)published)in)Progress)in)

Oceanography)in)2015)

16

Table)3))Papers)included)in)the)2015)SOAR)special)issue)of)Progress)in)Oceanography)

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsofthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011 WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressinOceanography13612031 FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015Divergentpatternsofrecent seaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049 WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059 ArrigoKRvanDijkenGL2015ContinuedincreasesinArcticOceanprimaryproductionProgressinOceanography13660070 MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJNFeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091 GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarkeJTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSHLovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015EcosystemcharacteristicsandprocessesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114 LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132 CrawfordJAQuakenbushLTCittaJJ2015Acomparisonofringedandbeardedsealdietconditionandproductivitybetweenhistorical(1975ndash1984)andrecent(2003ndash2012)periodsintheAlaskanBeringandChukchiseasProgressinOceanography1361330150 DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarctic seaiceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161 LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015LimitstobenthicfeedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchangingseaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174 KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015SeasonalspatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareas ProgressinOceanography1361750200 CittaJJQuakenbushLTOkkonenSRDruckenmillerMLMaslowskiWClement0KinneyJGeorgeJCBrowerHSmallRJAshjianCJHarwoodLAHeide0Joslashrgensen MP2015Ecologicalcharacteristicsofcore0useareasusedbyBeringndashChukchindashBeaufort(BCB)bowheadwhales2006ndash2012ProgressinOceanography1362010222

17

ClarkCWBerchokCLBlackwellSBHannayDEJonesJPonirakisDStafford KM2015AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasProgressinOceanography1362230240 MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationshipbetweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249 GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgressinOceanography1362500262 HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015ChangeintheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE2

Followingthe2015publicationofthefirstSOARspecialissueinProgressinOceanography theSOARprojectSSCandparticipantsdecidedtopursuecoordinatethepublicationofasetofpapersinfullsecondspecialissueThosePhase2topicsandpaperleadswerediscussedat theannualSOARSSCmeetinginJanuary2015Baseduponsuggestionsatthismeeting102pageproposalswererequestedfromsuggestedpaperleadsandproposalswerethen subsequentlydevelopedintopublishedpapersThemajorityofpapersforthesecondspecial issuewerecompletedandinpressbytheendof2017(Table4)withfinalpublicationofthe completespecialissueinDeepSeaResearchIIndashTopicalStudiesinOceanographyexpectedby latesummer2018

Table)4))Papers)to)appear)in)the)SOAR)2nd)Phase)special)issue)published)in)Deep)Sea)Research)Part)II)

Corresponding) Author Manuscript)Title

SueMoore IntroductionTheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)Project

MuyinWang SeaiceandoceancharacteristicsintheChukchiSeabyselectedCMIP5modelsthepresentandthefuture

NicholasBond DiagnosisofphysicaloceanographiceventsintheChukchiSea usinganoceanreanalysis

VictoriaHill DecadaltrendsinphytoplanktonproductioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

18

JessicaCross FormationandtransportofcorrosivewaterinthePacificArcticRegion

LeeCooper DepositionpatternsontheChukchiShelfusingradionuclide inventoriesinrelationtosurfacesedimentcharacteristics

Matthew Druckenmiller

Trendsinsea0icecoverandupwellingpotentialwithinBowheadwhaleuseareasintheWesternArctic

KateStafford AcousticecologyofbowheadandbelugawhalesincoreuseareasintheBeaufortandChukchiSeas

JohnCitta Oceanographiccharacteristicsassociatedwithbowheadwhale movementsintheChukchiSea

JohnCitta SeasonaldistributionandoverlapofmarinemammalsintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseas

KimberlyRand UsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

ElizabethLogerwell Environmentaldriversofbenthicfishdistributioninandaround BarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwesternBeaufortSea

KathleenStafford BelugawhalesintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaasynthesisofavailableinformationontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StephenOkkonen Relationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskanBeaufortSea

MartinRobards UnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesintheAlaskanArcticPlace0basedcollaborationswithAlaskaNative communities

SueMoore TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)ModellinkingtemporalprocessestocontiguousdomainsinthePacificArctic

19

PRESENTATIONSANDPOSTERSATSCIENTIFICMEETINGS

SOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandcontributorsmademorethan50presentationsincludinginformationaboutthissynthesiseffortatavarietyofscientificmeetingsworkshopsandwebinarsAfulllistofthesepresentationsisprovidedinAppendixC

OTHERCOMMUNICATIONOFSYNTHESISAPPROACHANDPRODUCTS

TheSynthesisofArcticResearchwebsitelocatedathttpswwwpmelnoaagovsoar providesbackgroundinformationandup0to0datescienceproductinformationtostakeholders andthegeneralpublicThewebsitewillcontinuetobeliveandhostedbyNOAA

Severalpeer0reviewedpaperswerepublishedthatalsoappealtoamoregeneralortrans0 disciplineaudienceincludingSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)andSheffieldGuyetal(2016)SOARsynthesisresultswerefeaturedinnumerousnewspapersonlinefeaturesmagazines andmore

SYNTHESIS)SUMMARY)AND)DISCUSSION)

SOARPHASEI

ThefirstphaseofSOARresultedinfifteenpaperspublishedinaspecialissueofProgressin Oceanographyin2015(Table3)HereweprovideabroadoverviewanddiscussionofthepapersinthatspecialissuedrawnfromtheIntroductiontothatissue(MooreandStabeno 2015)

1 Introduction)

TheinitiationoftheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)projectcoincidedwiththerecognitionthatbiophysicalchangesinthePacificArcticregionweresoextremecomparedtotherecentpastthattheyacquiredthemonikerlsquonewnormalrsquo(Jeffriesetal2013) ConsequentlydescribingthebiophysicalpropertiesofthelsquonewlsquoPacificArcticmarineecosystemwasfoundationaltotheSOAReffortandthefocusoffivepapersinthefirstspecial issueExaminingbiologicalresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingthenbecamethetaskofresearchersfocusedonthestudyoflowertrophiclevel(LTL)communitiesanduppertrophiclevel(UTL)speciesTwopapersprovideintegratedresultsfromdirectsamplingofbenthic andfishcommunitieswhilethreepapersreportonchangesinLTLspeciesoccurrenceinferredbyshiftsinthedietsofsealsandmarinebirdsSixpapersfocusonUTLspecieswith fourpresentinginformationonseasonaloccurrenceinhotspotorcore0usehabitatsandtwo describingvariabilityinmarinemammalbodyconditioninthecontextofdecadal0scale

20

environmentalvariabilityTogetherthesepapersprovideasyntheticcontexttofocushypothesesunderpinningthenextdecadeofresearchinthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

2)Biophysics)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

ThePacificArcticmarineecosystemiscomprisedofinflowshelves(northernBeringandChukchiseas)coupledtointeriorshelves(EastSiberianandBeaufortseas)withthe contrastingbiophysicsofthesedomainssummarizedinCarmacketal(2006)Circulationon bothinflowandinteriorshelvesislinkedtopan0arcticteleconnectionmechanisms(egArcticOscillation)withinteriorshelvesalsostronglyinfluencedbytheseasonaloutflowof relativelywarmfreshwaterfromarcticriversEvaluatingecosystemstatusandtrendsinthePacificArcticwasthefocusofarecentbookwith10(of12)chaptersdevotedtoobservationsandmodelingoftheatmosphereoceanphysicsandchemistry(GrebmeierandMaslowski 2014)Thepapersinthefirstspecialissueaddtothatbodyofknowledgeespeciallywithregardtobiologicalresponsestobiophysicaldriversandinthiswaycontributetoamore holisticunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

21)PhysicalobservationsandopenwaterprojectionsinthelsquonewnormalrsquoPacificArctic

Recentobservations(200302013)ofenvironmentalchangesinthePacificArcticsupportthecontentionthatanewnormalclimateisemerging(Fig3Jeffriesetal2013Woodetal 2015)

Figure)3))Highlights)of)recent)biophysical)changes)in)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

21

Theiconicindicatorofthischangeisthedramaticsummertimelossofseaice(50byarea75byvolume)whichinsomeyears(eg2012)hasresultedinnearlyice0freeconditionsin theregionSpecificallysatellitedatafrom197902012reveallocalizedchangesinsea0ice occurrenceofupto0164daysyearintheCanadaBasinand0124daysyearintheBeaufort Seawhichacceleratedto0657daysyear(CanadaBasin)and01284daysyear(Beaufort Sea)duringthe200002012period(Freyetal2015)Multiyearseaicehasalmostentirelydisappearedwithinter0annualvariabilityiniceconcentrationlargelydrivenbywindforcing intheBeaufortSeaIntheCanadaBasindifferencesinannualseaiceareprimarilythermallydrivenwhilesea0iceextentisinfluencedbybothwindsandheatontheBeringSeashelf

Thesummeratmosphericpatternsinfluenceoceancirculationfreshwaterpathwaysand movementandmeltingofseaiceDuringthelastdecadetheintensificationoftheBeaufortHigh(OgiandWallace2012)resultedinanomaloussummerwindsTheseanomalouswinds togetherwiththelossofmulti0yeariceweretheprimaryfactorsthattransformedtheChukchiandnorthernBeaufortseasintoanopenwaterenvironment(Woodetal2015)InparticulartheeasternBeaufortSeaappearstobeparticularlysusceptibletoanomalouswindsthrough theireffectontheadvectionofwarmfreshwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumeInadditiontransportanomaliesintheBeringStraitaredeterminedbycompetinglarge0scale atmosphericpatternstheBeaufortHighandAleutianLow(Danielsonetal2014)NotablychangesinBeringStraitflowthroughcanimpacttheworldclimatefarbeyondtheBeringStraitandArcticregion(egHuetal2015)

Freyetal(2015)investigatetheinfluenceofthePacificDecadalOscillation(PDO)andtheArcticOscillation(AO)onthepersistenceofseaiceinsummerandwinterTheyfoundsignificantnegativecorrelationsbetweenseaiceonthesoutheasternBeringSeashelfandthe PDOinwinteraswellassignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweentheAOandsea0icecoverjustsouthofStLawrenceIslandSignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweenthePDOandsea iceintheCanadaBasin0CanadianArchipelagowerefoundinsummeraswellasbetweentheAOandseaiceintheChukchi0BeaufortseasThisnovelinvestigationofteleconnections betweenthePDOtheAOandsea0icecoverprovidesacriticalstepinunderstandinghow globalandregionalclimatepatternsinfluencethephysicsofthePacificArcticregion

Theunprecedentedlossofseaicehasresultedinatremendousincreaseinopen0water susceptibletorapidsolarheatingwithadditionalheatandfreshwaterprovidedbya50 increaseinPacificWaterinflowatBeringStraitfrom200102011(Woodgateetal2012 Woodetal2015)TheinfluenceofincreasedheatstoredintheChukchiandBeaufortseasis notwellunderstoodSuggestionsthatheatreleasedtotheatmosphereinlateautumnandwinterdrivesaspectsofmid0latitudeweatherremainspeculativelargelyduetotheshort timerecordavailable(Woodetal2015)FresheningoftheArcticOceanhasbeenoccurring atleastsincethe1990s(egGilesetal2012)Severalexplanationshavebeenproposed includingincreasedsea0icemeltfresherPacificWaterflowingthroughBeringStraitchanges inthemagnitudeofriverdischargeandthemeanstrengtheningoftheBeaufortHighInrecentyearsrelativelystrongeasterlywindshavebeencommonduetotheArctic0wide

22

patternofcirculationaroundanintensifiedBeaufortHighUndertheseconditionsfreshand warmwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumecanbelaterallytransportedfaroutintothe BeaufortSea(Woodetal2015)

WangandOverland(2015)comparedresultsfromtwelvecoupledclimatemodelstoproducecompositeprojectionsofthedurationofopenwaterintheChukchiandBeaufortseasat decadalintervalsfrom201002050andin2090Forwatersnorthofthe70degNopen0water durationshiftsfrom304monthsin2010toaprojected~5monthsby2040Projectedopen0 waterdurationisaboutonemonthlongeralongthesamelatitudesintheChukchiSeacomparedwiththeBeaufortSeawithuncertaintyofaboutplusmn1monthestimatedfromtherangeofmodelresultsAllmodelsprojectedopen0waterdurationtoexpandquicklyoverthe nextthreedecadeswhichwillimpactregionaleconomicaccessandpotentiallyalterecosystemsYetthePacificArcticregionwillremaincoveredwiththinfirst0yearicefrom JanuarythroughMayintothesecondhalfofthecenturyduetoseasonallackofsunlight

22Changesinprimaryproductionandoceanacidification

Thedramaticlossofsea0iceextentandvolumehasresultedinaconcomitantincreaseinlightpenetrationintheupperoceanacrosstheArcticGiventhethinningandarealreductionof seaiceafundamentalquestionariseshavethesechangesfosteredanincreaseinmarineprimaryproductionSpecificallyisthePacificArcticregionmoreproductivethanitwasthreedecadesagoIntheAtlanticArcticLeuetal(2011)measuredprimaryproductionby bothicealgaeandphytoplanktonincontrastingyears(2007008)ofsea0icecoverinaSvalbardfjordandconcludedthatearliericebreakupcorrespondedwithearlieronsetofa phytoplanktonbloomSimilarlyTremblayetal(2012)reportincreasedprimaryproductionfor2007008associatedwithextremesea0iceretreatsandincreasedupwellingatstations locatedsouthandeastofBanksIslandinthesoutheasternBeaufortSeaButcanconclusions drawnfrommeasurementssorestrictedinspaceandtimebeextrapolatedtolargerarcticregionsUsingsatelliteimageryArrigoandvanDijken(2015)investigatedchangesinseaice atbothregionalandbasinscalesfrom199802012andestimatedhowthesechangeshaveimpactedratesofnetprimaryproduction(NPP)byphytoplanktonTheyreportthatannual NPPincreased30duringthisperiodwiththelargestincreasesontheinteriorshelves (includingtheEastSiberianandBeaufort)andsmallerincreasesoninflowshelves(includingtheChukchi)OutflowshelveseitherexhibitednochangeinannualNPPoradeclineperhaps indicatingthatnutrientshadbeenconsumedfurtherupstreamIncreasedannualNPPwasoftenbutnotalwaysassociatedwithreducedsea0iceextentandresultantlonger phytoplanktongrowingseason

HumanactivitieshaveincreasedtheatmosphericCO2concentrationbyabout40sincethebeginningoftheindustrialageanditisestimatedthattheoceanhasabsorbedmorethan25

23

ofthetotalanthropogenicemissions(Mathisetal2015)TheoceanicuptakeofCO2triggersaseriesofchemicalreactionsinthesurfaceoceanthatreducespHandresultsinocean acidification(OA)InshortOAmakesseawatercorrosivetocalciumcarbonatemineralswhichmanymarineorganismsrelyonforbodystructuresHigh0latitudeoceanshave naturallylowcarbonateconcentrationssoareconsideredtobemorevulnerabletotheimpactsofOAbecauseadditionalcarbonatelossrepresentsamuchgreaterproportionalchangetothesystemInanovelstudyMathisetalprovideariskassessmentofOAimpacts tocommercialandtraditionalfisheriesfocusedonshellfishsalmonandfinfishTheresultant indexsuggeststhatwhilethenorthernBeringSeaisatmediumriskfromOAimpactsto fisheriesPacificArcticwatersnorthoftheSewardPeninsulaarecurrentlyatlowriskduelargelytoalackofdependenceonthesefoodsources

3)Lower)Trophic)Level)Communities)signals)from)direct)and)indirect)sampling

ThepredominantconceptualmodelframinghowmarineecosystemsinthePacificArctic respondtoreducedseaiceisbasedonchangesanticipatedfromashiftinpelagic0benthic coupling(Fig4)

Figure)4))Generalized)conceptual)model)depicting)the)influence)of)sea)ice)on)pelagicVbenthic)coupling)on) Pacific)Arctic)continental)shelves)

24

OnthebroadshelvesthatcomprisemuchofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemnewprimaryproductionfromsea0icealgaeandphytoplanktonbloomsfallstotheseafloortosupportrich benthiccommunities(Grebmeier2012)Asseaicethinsandretreatsearlierintheseasonitisanticipatedthatearlierandlargerphytoplanktonbloomswillswitchfromabenthic0 dominatedtoapelagic0dominatedmarineecosystemThisshiftwillcascadethroughthesystemsupportingnovelcommunitiesofsecondaryandtertiaryconsumers(zooplanktonandforagefishes)anduppertrophiclevelmarinebirdsandmammalsIndeedGrebmeieret al(2006)suggestedthatthistypeofecosystemshiftisalreadyunderwayinthemarinecommunitiesofthenorthernBeringSeaThePacificArcticisoftendescribedasabenthic0 dominatedmarineecosystemonethatdoesnotsupportalargebiomassorspeciesdiversityoffishesAdescriptionofconditionsthathavefosteredexistingbenthichotspotsoffersa solidfoundationforassessingfuturechangeswhileanaccountingoftheexistingcommunitiesofmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsprovidesastartingpointuponwhichtobuildalong0termrecord)

31Benthichotspotsandmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitats

ArecordofextantconditionsiskeytointerpretingmarineecosystemresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingnowevidentinthePacificArcticSucharecordexistsforfourbenthic lsquohotspotrsquocommunitiesinthenorthernBeringandChukchiseas(Grebmeieretal2015a)but notformarinefishesLong0termsamplingofbenthicmacrofaunalcommunitiesindicatesthatthebenthichotspotshavemaintainedconsistentlyhighbiomassforuptofourdecadesdueto reoccurrenceofseasonallyreliablemoderate0to0highwatercolumnproductioncoupledwithexportofcarbonfromoverlyingwaterstotheseafloorUppertrophiclevelbenthivorestargetpreyaggregationsineachofthehotspotsOverallbottom0upforcingbyhydrography andfoodsupplytothebenthosinfluencespersistenceandcompositionofbenthicpreywhichinturninfluencestheuppertrophiclevelspeciescompositionandseasonaloccurrence Whenconsistentlysampledintandemthesebenthos0benthivoreconnectionscanfacilitate useofUTLspeciesassentinelsofshiftsinpreycompositionandabundance(Mooreetal2014)

Sincethe2000stherehavebeenahostofArcticmarinefishsurveysintheChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasprecipitatedbybothscientificinterestintheimpactsofclimatechangeandcommercialinterestinoilandgasdevelopment(Logerwelletal2015)Resultsfrom thesesurveysprovideanovelopportunitytocompareArcticfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsrangingfromlagoonsandbeachestobenthicandpelagiccontinental shelfwatersAsynthesisofdatafromthesesurveysrevealedmoresimilaritiesthandifferencesinhabitatusebetweenthetwoseasForexamplenearshorehabitatisusedbyallageclassesofforagefishesandisalsoanurseryareaforotherspeciesinboththeChukchiand westernBeaufortseasNotablysomecommercialspeciesmaybeexpandingtheirrangenorthtothesewatersincludingchinooksalmon(Oncorhynchustshawytscha)walleyepollock (Gaduschalcogrammus)andflatfishes(Pleuronectidae)Inadditionasynthesisofinformationonrelativeabundanceandageofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)andsaffroncod

25

(Eleginusgracilis)bothkeypreyspeciesinArcticfoodwebssupportedthedevelopmentoflifehistoryanddistributionmodelsthatwillinformfutureresearchontrophicdynamicsin thePacificArcticsector

32Inferencesofmarineecosystemshiftsfromsealsseabirdsandseaducks

Additionalinformationregardingtheimpactoflsquonewnormalrsquobiophysicalconditionsonlowertrophiclevelspeciescanbeinferredfromshiftsinthedietandbodyconditionofmarine mammalsandbirdsCrawfordetal(2015)comparedthedietandconditionofringedseals(Pusahispida)andbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)harvestedintheAlaskanBeringand Chukchiseasduringhistorical(197501984)andrecent(200302012)periodsTheyfoundthe proportionoffishinthedietofbothspeciesincreasedintherecentreduced0iceperiodcomparedtothehistoricalperiodInadditionringedsealsgrewfasterhadthickerblubber andmaturedtwoyearsearlierBeardedsealshadthickerblubberintherecentperiodbut didnotmanifesttheotherchangesreportedfortheringedsealsAlthoughanumberofthe comparisonswerenotstatisticallysignificanttakentogethertheseobservationssuggestgreaterfishavailabilityintheAlaskanBering0Chukchimarineecosystemsupportinggood bodyconditionintheseals

AsinthesealpaperDivokyetal(2015)parsedalong0termdatasetintorecent(200302012)andhistorical(197501984)periodstocompareoceanographicconditionsnestlingdietandfledgingsuccessatablackguillemot(Cepphusgryllemandtii)breedingcolonyinthewestern BeaufortSeaFrom15Julyto1Septemberseaiceretreatedanaverageof18kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof958kmfromthecolonyduringthehistoricalperiodwhileinthe recentperiodiceretreataveraged98kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof5069kmSeasurfacetemperaturenearthecolonyincreasedby29⁰CbetweenthetwoperiodsWhileArcticcodcomprisedover95ofthepreyprovidedtonestlingsinthehistoricalperiodthis proportiondecreasedtolt5ofthenestlingdietduringmostyearsintherecentperiodwhendemersalsculpin(Cottidae)comprisedthemajorityofthedietTheshiftawayfrom Arcticcodwasassociatedwithafive0foldincreaseintherateofnestlingstarvationand reductionsinnestlinggrowthandfledgingmassConverselyannualadultsurvivalduringthe nonbreedingseason(September0May)showednosignificantdifferencebetweenthetwo periodssuggestingnochangeintheavailabilityofArcticcodorinoverallpreyavailabilityto blackguillemotsintheirBeringSeawinteringarea

IncontrasttoarelianceonpelagicpreyLovvornetal(2015)investigatedpotentialclimate0 relatedlimitstobenthicfeedingbyseaducksalongtheirmigrationcorridorinthenortheasternChukchiSeaKingeiders(Somateriaspectabilis)primarilyeatclams(bivalves) duringmigrationandrecentsamplinghasshownthatdenseclamassemblagesoccuronlyinspecificlocationsalongthemigrationcorridorSeaicecanpreventeidersfromreachingtheseprimefeedingsiteswithsatellitedataforApril‒May(2001‒2013)showingthataccess canvaryfrom0‒100InawarmingandincreasinglyvariableclimateaccesstobenthicfeedingsitesmaybefurthererodedbytheeffectsofwindsonunconsolidatediceThese

26

resultsunderscoretheimportanceofmaintainingarangeofbenthicfeedingareasthroughoutthemigrationcorridortoensurepreyavailabilitytotheeiderseachyear)

4)Upper)Trophic)Level)Species)marine)birds)and)mammals)as)ecosystem)sentinels

Astoppredatorsmarinebirdsandmammalsmustadapttochangesintheirhabitatsresultingfromphysicalforcingandtherebycanserveassentinelstoecosystemshifts(Mooreetal2014MooreandGulland2014)ResponsesofUTLspeciestoalteredhabitatscanbe categorizedasextrinsicincludingshiftsinrangemigratorytiming(phenology)orregionsofhighabundance(hotspots)orintrinsicincludingchangesindietbodyconditionand chemicalcomposition(Fig5)

Figure)5)Marine)birds)and)mammals)are)upper)trophic)level)(UTL))species)that)reflect)ecosystem) alterations)by)changes)in)habitat)use)(extrinsic))and)body)condition)(intrinsic))revealing)fundamental) changes)in)marine)ecosystems)

Responsesareinter0relatedsuchthatashiftinrangephenologyoruseofhotspotswillbe reflectedinchangesindietbodyconditionandchemistryItisthisconnectionthatallowsus

27

todetectecosystemreorganizationbytrackingchangesintheecologyandphysiologyofUTL speciesAlthoughtherehavebeennocoordinatedlong0termstudiesofUTLspeciesinthe PacificArcticexaminingthisconnectionasynthesisofinformationfromvisualsurveyssatellitetaggingofindividualsandyear0roundacousticdetectionsprovidesanecological foundationthatcanprovideabaselinetoinformfutureinvestigations

41Seasonaloccurrencehotspothabitatsandacousticecology

Kuletzetal(2015)depictspatialpatternsofrelativeabundanceofseabirdsandmarinemammalsinsummerandfallderivedfromsixyearsofvisualsurveysintheeasternChukchi andwesternBeaufortseasUsingstatisticalspatialanalysistoolshotspotsforseabirdswalrusandgraywhaleswereidentifiedintheChukchiSeawhilehotspotsforbowheadwhalesandsealsweredescribednearBarrowCanyonandalongtheBeaufortSeashelfand slopeHotspotsforbelugasoccurredinboththeChukchiandBeaufortseasInsummerthreehotspotsweresharedbybothseabirdsandmarinemammalsintheChukchiSeawaters offshoreWainwrightsouthofHannaShoalandatthemouthofBarrowCanyonOnlytheBarrowCanyonhotspotwasoccupiedthroughthefallSharedhotspotswerecharacterized bystrongfrontscausedbyupwellingandcurrentswhichcanservetoaggregatepreyUsingadifferentapproachCittaetal(2015)providedetailedanalysisoftheseasonalmovementsandhabitatusebyasinglespeciesthroughoutoneyearLocationsfrom54bowheadwhales (Balaenamysticetus)obtainedbysatellitetelemetryfrom200602012wereusedtoidentifya totalofsixcore0useareasintheBeaufort(3)Chukchi(1)andnorthernBering(2)seas Takentogetherthetimingofuse(phenology)andphysicalcharacteristics(oceanographyseaiceandwinds)associatedwitheachareadescribeaseasonalcircuitbythewhalesthroughareasthoughttosupportelevatedpreydensities

Passiveacousticsamplinghasbecomeacommonyear0roundtooltodetectcallingmarine mammalsinarcticseas(Mooreetal2006Staffordetal2012)Since2007therehasbeenanespeciallystrongsamplingeffortassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationinthenortheast ChukchiandwesternBeaufortseas(egHannayetal2013 httpwwwafscnoaagovnmmlcetaceanchaozphp)Theserecorderdeployments augmentalong0standingacousticstudyinthecentralBeaufortSea(Blackwelletal2007)andmorerecentdeploymentsintheBeringStraitregion(KStaffordperscomm)HeretoforeresearchersconductedeachofthesestudiesindependentlyofoneanotherClark etal(2015)presentsanovelsynthesisofthecombinedoutputfromsixresearcheffortsusingfourtypesofrecordersandavarietyofsub0samplingandanalysisschemestodescribean lsquoacousticyearrsquointhelifeofthebowheadwhaleDetectionsofbowheadcallsfrom20sitesextendingover2300kmfromthenorthernBeringSeatothesoutheastBeaufortSeawere combinedovera140monthperiod(200902010)todescribewhaleoccurrenceacrosstheir rangeThespatialandtemporalvariabilityinsoundlevelswithinthefrequencybandofbowheadwhaleswasalsoquantifiedThelowestunderwatersoundlevelsoccurredfromlate NovemberuntilMayintheChukchiSeaDuringwinter200902010singingbowheadwhaleselevatedbroadbandsoundlevelsforroughly38daysinthenorthernBeringSeafollowedby

28

asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

29

ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

31

Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

32

(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

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KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

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MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

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MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

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PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

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52

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StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Moore

TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

Mathis

UsinganEnvironmentalIntelligenceFrameworktoEvaluatetheImpactsof

OceanAcidificationintheArctic

ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

26(Jan(2017(

Moore

The

Arc

tic M

arin

e Pu

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Mod

el l

inki

ng a

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raph

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roce

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omai

ns in

the

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fic A

rctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

24(Jan(2017(

VanPelt

Synt

hesi

s of A

rctic

Res

earc

h (S

OA

R) ndash

Phy

sics

to m

arin

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amm

als i

n th

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cific

Arc

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hase

II

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22(Apr(2017(

Moore

The

Synt

hesi

s of A

rctic

Res

earc

h (S

OA

R) P

rogr

am in

the

Paci

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Inte

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Res

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VA

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 16: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

SCIENCEPRODUCTANDCOMMUNICATIONTASKS

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE1 FollowingtheinitialSOARthemeselectionsandteamdevelopmentandincorporatinganextensivepeer0reviewphaseledbytheprojectPIsandcoordinatorthefirstphaseofthe SOARprojectculminatedinaspecialvolumeofProgressinOceanographypublishedinAugust 2015(Fig2Table3)Thisspecialissueincluded16fullpapersplusanintroductionpaper authoredbythetwoprojectPIs

Figure)2)Cover)of)the)first)SOAR)special) volume)published)in)Progress)in)

Oceanography)in)2015)

16

Table)3))Papers)included)in)the)2015)SOAR)special)issue)of)Progress)in)Oceanography)

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsofthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011 WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressinOceanography13612031 FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015Divergentpatternsofrecent seaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049 WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059 ArrigoKRvanDijkenGL2015ContinuedincreasesinArcticOceanprimaryproductionProgressinOceanography13660070 MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJNFeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091 GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarkeJTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSHLovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015EcosystemcharacteristicsandprocessesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114 LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132 CrawfordJAQuakenbushLTCittaJJ2015Acomparisonofringedandbeardedsealdietconditionandproductivitybetweenhistorical(1975ndash1984)andrecent(2003ndash2012)periodsintheAlaskanBeringandChukchiseasProgressinOceanography1361330150 DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarctic seaiceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161 LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015LimitstobenthicfeedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchangingseaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174 KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015SeasonalspatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareas ProgressinOceanography1361750200 CittaJJQuakenbushLTOkkonenSRDruckenmillerMLMaslowskiWClement0KinneyJGeorgeJCBrowerHSmallRJAshjianCJHarwoodLAHeide0Joslashrgensen MP2015Ecologicalcharacteristicsofcore0useareasusedbyBeringndashChukchindashBeaufort(BCB)bowheadwhales2006ndash2012ProgressinOceanography1362010222

17

ClarkCWBerchokCLBlackwellSBHannayDEJonesJPonirakisDStafford KM2015AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasProgressinOceanography1362230240 MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationshipbetweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249 GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgressinOceanography1362500262 HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015ChangeintheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE2

Followingthe2015publicationofthefirstSOARspecialissueinProgressinOceanography theSOARprojectSSCandparticipantsdecidedtopursuecoordinatethepublicationofasetofpapersinfullsecondspecialissueThosePhase2topicsandpaperleadswerediscussedat theannualSOARSSCmeetinginJanuary2015Baseduponsuggestionsatthismeeting102pageproposalswererequestedfromsuggestedpaperleadsandproposalswerethen subsequentlydevelopedintopublishedpapersThemajorityofpapersforthesecondspecial issuewerecompletedandinpressbytheendof2017(Table4)withfinalpublicationofthe completespecialissueinDeepSeaResearchIIndashTopicalStudiesinOceanographyexpectedby latesummer2018

Table)4))Papers)to)appear)in)the)SOAR)2nd)Phase)special)issue)published)in)Deep)Sea)Research)Part)II)

Corresponding) Author Manuscript)Title

SueMoore IntroductionTheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)Project

MuyinWang SeaiceandoceancharacteristicsintheChukchiSeabyselectedCMIP5modelsthepresentandthefuture

NicholasBond DiagnosisofphysicaloceanographiceventsintheChukchiSea usinganoceanreanalysis

VictoriaHill DecadaltrendsinphytoplanktonproductioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

18

JessicaCross FormationandtransportofcorrosivewaterinthePacificArcticRegion

LeeCooper DepositionpatternsontheChukchiShelfusingradionuclide inventoriesinrelationtosurfacesedimentcharacteristics

Matthew Druckenmiller

Trendsinsea0icecoverandupwellingpotentialwithinBowheadwhaleuseareasintheWesternArctic

KateStafford AcousticecologyofbowheadandbelugawhalesincoreuseareasintheBeaufortandChukchiSeas

JohnCitta Oceanographiccharacteristicsassociatedwithbowheadwhale movementsintheChukchiSea

JohnCitta SeasonaldistributionandoverlapofmarinemammalsintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseas

KimberlyRand UsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

ElizabethLogerwell Environmentaldriversofbenthicfishdistributioninandaround BarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwesternBeaufortSea

KathleenStafford BelugawhalesintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaasynthesisofavailableinformationontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StephenOkkonen Relationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskanBeaufortSea

MartinRobards UnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesintheAlaskanArcticPlace0basedcollaborationswithAlaskaNative communities

SueMoore TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)ModellinkingtemporalprocessestocontiguousdomainsinthePacificArctic

19

PRESENTATIONSANDPOSTERSATSCIENTIFICMEETINGS

SOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandcontributorsmademorethan50presentationsincludinginformationaboutthissynthesiseffortatavarietyofscientificmeetingsworkshopsandwebinarsAfulllistofthesepresentationsisprovidedinAppendixC

OTHERCOMMUNICATIONOFSYNTHESISAPPROACHANDPRODUCTS

TheSynthesisofArcticResearchwebsitelocatedathttpswwwpmelnoaagovsoar providesbackgroundinformationandup0to0datescienceproductinformationtostakeholders andthegeneralpublicThewebsitewillcontinuetobeliveandhostedbyNOAA

Severalpeer0reviewedpaperswerepublishedthatalsoappealtoamoregeneralortrans0 disciplineaudienceincludingSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)andSheffieldGuyetal(2016)SOARsynthesisresultswerefeaturedinnumerousnewspapersonlinefeaturesmagazines andmore

SYNTHESIS)SUMMARY)AND)DISCUSSION)

SOARPHASEI

ThefirstphaseofSOARresultedinfifteenpaperspublishedinaspecialissueofProgressin Oceanographyin2015(Table3)HereweprovideabroadoverviewanddiscussionofthepapersinthatspecialissuedrawnfromtheIntroductiontothatissue(MooreandStabeno 2015)

1 Introduction)

TheinitiationoftheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)projectcoincidedwiththerecognitionthatbiophysicalchangesinthePacificArcticregionweresoextremecomparedtotherecentpastthattheyacquiredthemonikerlsquonewnormalrsquo(Jeffriesetal2013) ConsequentlydescribingthebiophysicalpropertiesofthelsquonewlsquoPacificArcticmarineecosystemwasfoundationaltotheSOAReffortandthefocusoffivepapersinthefirstspecial issueExaminingbiologicalresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingthenbecamethetaskofresearchersfocusedonthestudyoflowertrophiclevel(LTL)communitiesanduppertrophiclevel(UTL)speciesTwopapersprovideintegratedresultsfromdirectsamplingofbenthic andfishcommunitieswhilethreepapersreportonchangesinLTLspeciesoccurrenceinferredbyshiftsinthedietsofsealsandmarinebirdsSixpapersfocusonUTLspecieswith fourpresentinginformationonseasonaloccurrenceinhotspotorcore0usehabitatsandtwo describingvariabilityinmarinemammalbodyconditioninthecontextofdecadal0scale

20

environmentalvariabilityTogetherthesepapersprovideasyntheticcontexttofocushypothesesunderpinningthenextdecadeofresearchinthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

2)Biophysics)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

ThePacificArcticmarineecosystemiscomprisedofinflowshelves(northernBeringandChukchiseas)coupledtointeriorshelves(EastSiberianandBeaufortseas)withthe contrastingbiophysicsofthesedomainssummarizedinCarmacketal(2006)Circulationon bothinflowandinteriorshelvesislinkedtopan0arcticteleconnectionmechanisms(egArcticOscillation)withinteriorshelvesalsostronglyinfluencedbytheseasonaloutflowof relativelywarmfreshwaterfromarcticriversEvaluatingecosystemstatusandtrendsinthePacificArcticwasthefocusofarecentbookwith10(of12)chaptersdevotedtoobservationsandmodelingoftheatmosphereoceanphysicsandchemistry(GrebmeierandMaslowski 2014)Thepapersinthefirstspecialissueaddtothatbodyofknowledgeespeciallywithregardtobiologicalresponsestobiophysicaldriversandinthiswaycontributetoamore holisticunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

21)PhysicalobservationsandopenwaterprojectionsinthelsquonewnormalrsquoPacificArctic

Recentobservations(200302013)ofenvironmentalchangesinthePacificArcticsupportthecontentionthatanewnormalclimateisemerging(Fig3Jeffriesetal2013Woodetal 2015)

Figure)3))Highlights)of)recent)biophysical)changes)in)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

21

Theiconicindicatorofthischangeisthedramaticsummertimelossofseaice(50byarea75byvolume)whichinsomeyears(eg2012)hasresultedinnearlyice0freeconditionsin theregionSpecificallysatellitedatafrom197902012reveallocalizedchangesinsea0ice occurrenceofupto0164daysyearintheCanadaBasinand0124daysyearintheBeaufort Seawhichacceleratedto0657daysyear(CanadaBasin)and01284daysyear(Beaufort Sea)duringthe200002012period(Freyetal2015)Multiyearseaicehasalmostentirelydisappearedwithinter0annualvariabilityiniceconcentrationlargelydrivenbywindforcing intheBeaufortSeaIntheCanadaBasindifferencesinannualseaiceareprimarilythermallydrivenwhilesea0iceextentisinfluencedbybothwindsandheatontheBeringSeashelf

Thesummeratmosphericpatternsinfluenceoceancirculationfreshwaterpathwaysand movementandmeltingofseaiceDuringthelastdecadetheintensificationoftheBeaufortHigh(OgiandWallace2012)resultedinanomaloussummerwindsTheseanomalouswinds togetherwiththelossofmulti0yeariceweretheprimaryfactorsthattransformedtheChukchiandnorthernBeaufortseasintoanopenwaterenvironment(Woodetal2015)InparticulartheeasternBeaufortSeaappearstobeparticularlysusceptibletoanomalouswindsthrough theireffectontheadvectionofwarmfreshwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumeInadditiontransportanomaliesintheBeringStraitaredeterminedbycompetinglarge0scale atmosphericpatternstheBeaufortHighandAleutianLow(Danielsonetal2014)NotablychangesinBeringStraitflowthroughcanimpacttheworldclimatefarbeyondtheBeringStraitandArcticregion(egHuetal2015)

Freyetal(2015)investigatetheinfluenceofthePacificDecadalOscillation(PDO)andtheArcticOscillation(AO)onthepersistenceofseaiceinsummerandwinterTheyfoundsignificantnegativecorrelationsbetweenseaiceonthesoutheasternBeringSeashelfandthe PDOinwinteraswellassignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweentheAOandsea0icecoverjustsouthofStLawrenceIslandSignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweenthePDOandsea iceintheCanadaBasin0CanadianArchipelagowerefoundinsummeraswellasbetweentheAOandseaiceintheChukchi0BeaufortseasThisnovelinvestigationofteleconnections betweenthePDOtheAOandsea0icecoverprovidesacriticalstepinunderstandinghow globalandregionalclimatepatternsinfluencethephysicsofthePacificArcticregion

Theunprecedentedlossofseaicehasresultedinatremendousincreaseinopen0water susceptibletorapidsolarheatingwithadditionalheatandfreshwaterprovidedbya50 increaseinPacificWaterinflowatBeringStraitfrom200102011(Woodgateetal2012 Woodetal2015)TheinfluenceofincreasedheatstoredintheChukchiandBeaufortseasis notwellunderstoodSuggestionsthatheatreleasedtotheatmosphereinlateautumnandwinterdrivesaspectsofmid0latitudeweatherremainspeculativelargelyduetotheshort timerecordavailable(Woodetal2015)FresheningoftheArcticOceanhasbeenoccurring atleastsincethe1990s(egGilesetal2012)Severalexplanationshavebeenproposed includingincreasedsea0icemeltfresherPacificWaterflowingthroughBeringStraitchanges inthemagnitudeofriverdischargeandthemeanstrengtheningoftheBeaufortHighInrecentyearsrelativelystrongeasterlywindshavebeencommonduetotheArctic0wide

22

patternofcirculationaroundanintensifiedBeaufortHighUndertheseconditionsfreshand warmwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumecanbelaterallytransportedfaroutintothe BeaufortSea(Woodetal2015)

WangandOverland(2015)comparedresultsfromtwelvecoupledclimatemodelstoproducecompositeprojectionsofthedurationofopenwaterintheChukchiandBeaufortseasat decadalintervalsfrom201002050andin2090Forwatersnorthofthe70degNopen0water durationshiftsfrom304monthsin2010toaprojected~5monthsby2040Projectedopen0 waterdurationisaboutonemonthlongeralongthesamelatitudesintheChukchiSeacomparedwiththeBeaufortSeawithuncertaintyofaboutplusmn1monthestimatedfromtherangeofmodelresultsAllmodelsprojectedopen0waterdurationtoexpandquicklyoverthe nextthreedecadeswhichwillimpactregionaleconomicaccessandpotentiallyalterecosystemsYetthePacificArcticregionwillremaincoveredwiththinfirst0yearicefrom JanuarythroughMayintothesecondhalfofthecenturyduetoseasonallackofsunlight

22Changesinprimaryproductionandoceanacidification

Thedramaticlossofsea0iceextentandvolumehasresultedinaconcomitantincreaseinlightpenetrationintheupperoceanacrosstheArcticGiventhethinningandarealreductionof seaiceafundamentalquestionariseshavethesechangesfosteredanincreaseinmarineprimaryproductionSpecificallyisthePacificArcticregionmoreproductivethanitwasthreedecadesagoIntheAtlanticArcticLeuetal(2011)measuredprimaryproductionby bothicealgaeandphytoplanktonincontrastingyears(2007008)ofsea0icecoverinaSvalbardfjordandconcludedthatearliericebreakupcorrespondedwithearlieronsetofa phytoplanktonbloomSimilarlyTremblayetal(2012)reportincreasedprimaryproductionfor2007008associatedwithextremesea0iceretreatsandincreasedupwellingatstations locatedsouthandeastofBanksIslandinthesoutheasternBeaufortSeaButcanconclusions drawnfrommeasurementssorestrictedinspaceandtimebeextrapolatedtolargerarcticregionsUsingsatelliteimageryArrigoandvanDijken(2015)investigatedchangesinseaice atbothregionalandbasinscalesfrom199802012andestimatedhowthesechangeshaveimpactedratesofnetprimaryproduction(NPP)byphytoplanktonTheyreportthatannual NPPincreased30duringthisperiodwiththelargestincreasesontheinteriorshelves (includingtheEastSiberianandBeaufort)andsmallerincreasesoninflowshelves(includingtheChukchi)OutflowshelveseitherexhibitednochangeinannualNPPoradeclineperhaps indicatingthatnutrientshadbeenconsumedfurtherupstreamIncreasedannualNPPwasoftenbutnotalwaysassociatedwithreducedsea0iceextentandresultantlonger phytoplanktongrowingseason

HumanactivitieshaveincreasedtheatmosphericCO2concentrationbyabout40sincethebeginningoftheindustrialageanditisestimatedthattheoceanhasabsorbedmorethan25

23

ofthetotalanthropogenicemissions(Mathisetal2015)TheoceanicuptakeofCO2triggersaseriesofchemicalreactionsinthesurfaceoceanthatreducespHandresultsinocean acidification(OA)InshortOAmakesseawatercorrosivetocalciumcarbonatemineralswhichmanymarineorganismsrelyonforbodystructuresHigh0latitudeoceanshave naturallylowcarbonateconcentrationssoareconsideredtobemorevulnerabletotheimpactsofOAbecauseadditionalcarbonatelossrepresentsamuchgreaterproportionalchangetothesystemInanovelstudyMathisetalprovideariskassessmentofOAimpacts tocommercialandtraditionalfisheriesfocusedonshellfishsalmonandfinfishTheresultant indexsuggeststhatwhilethenorthernBeringSeaisatmediumriskfromOAimpactsto fisheriesPacificArcticwatersnorthoftheSewardPeninsulaarecurrentlyatlowriskduelargelytoalackofdependenceonthesefoodsources

3)Lower)Trophic)Level)Communities)signals)from)direct)and)indirect)sampling

ThepredominantconceptualmodelframinghowmarineecosystemsinthePacificArctic respondtoreducedseaiceisbasedonchangesanticipatedfromashiftinpelagic0benthic coupling(Fig4)

Figure)4))Generalized)conceptual)model)depicting)the)influence)of)sea)ice)on)pelagicVbenthic)coupling)on) Pacific)Arctic)continental)shelves)

24

OnthebroadshelvesthatcomprisemuchofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemnewprimaryproductionfromsea0icealgaeandphytoplanktonbloomsfallstotheseafloortosupportrich benthiccommunities(Grebmeier2012)Asseaicethinsandretreatsearlierintheseasonitisanticipatedthatearlierandlargerphytoplanktonbloomswillswitchfromabenthic0 dominatedtoapelagic0dominatedmarineecosystemThisshiftwillcascadethroughthesystemsupportingnovelcommunitiesofsecondaryandtertiaryconsumers(zooplanktonandforagefishes)anduppertrophiclevelmarinebirdsandmammalsIndeedGrebmeieret al(2006)suggestedthatthistypeofecosystemshiftisalreadyunderwayinthemarinecommunitiesofthenorthernBeringSeaThePacificArcticisoftendescribedasabenthic0 dominatedmarineecosystemonethatdoesnotsupportalargebiomassorspeciesdiversityoffishesAdescriptionofconditionsthathavefosteredexistingbenthichotspotsoffersa solidfoundationforassessingfuturechangeswhileanaccountingoftheexistingcommunitiesofmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsprovidesastartingpointuponwhichtobuildalong0termrecord)

31Benthichotspotsandmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitats

ArecordofextantconditionsiskeytointerpretingmarineecosystemresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingnowevidentinthePacificArcticSucharecordexistsforfourbenthic lsquohotspotrsquocommunitiesinthenorthernBeringandChukchiseas(Grebmeieretal2015a)but notformarinefishesLong0termsamplingofbenthicmacrofaunalcommunitiesindicatesthatthebenthichotspotshavemaintainedconsistentlyhighbiomassforuptofourdecadesdueto reoccurrenceofseasonallyreliablemoderate0to0highwatercolumnproductioncoupledwithexportofcarbonfromoverlyingwaterstotheseafloorUppertrophiclevelbenthivorestargetpreyaggregationsineachofthehotspotsOverallbottom0upforcingbyhydrography andfoodsupplytothebenthosinfluencespersistenceandcompositionofbenthicpreywhichinturninfluencestheuppertrophiclevelspeciescompositionandseasonaloccurrence Whenconsistentlysampledintandemthesebenthos0benthivoreconnectionscanfacilitate useofUTLspeciesassentinelsofshiftsinpreycompositionandabundance(Mooreetal2014)

Sincethe2000stherehavebeenahostofArcticmarinefishsurveysintheChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasprecipitatedbybothscientificinterestintheimpactsofclimatechangeandcommercialinterestinoilandgasdevelopment(Logerwelletal2015)Resultsfrom thesesurveysprovideanovelopportunitytocompareArcticfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsrangingfromlagoonsandbeachestobenthicandpelagiccontinental shelfwatersAsynthesisofdatafromthesesurveysrevealedmoresimilaritiesthandifferencesinhabitatusebetweenthetwoseasForexamplenearshorehabitatisusedbyallageclassesofforagefishesandisalsoanurseryareaforotherspeciesinboththeChukchiand westernBeaufortseasNotablysomecommercialspeciesmaybeexpandingtheirrangenorthtothesewatersincludingchinooksalmon(Oncorhynchustshawytscha)walleyepollock (Gaduschalcogrammus)andflatfishes(Pleuronectidae)Inadditionasynthesisofinformationonrelativeabundanceandageofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)andsaffroncod

25

(Eleginusgracilis)bothkeypreyspeciesinArcticfoodwebssupportedthedevelopmentoflifehistoryanddistributionmodelsthatwillinformfutureresearchontrophicdynamicsin thePacificArcticsector

32Inferencesofmarineecosystemshiftsfromsealsseabirdsandseaducks

Additionalinformationregardingtheimpactoflsquonewnormalrsquobiophysicalconditionsonlowertrophiclevelspeciescanbeinferredfromshiftsinthedietandbodyconditionofmarine mammalsandbirdsCrawfordetal(2015)comparedthedietandconditionofringedseals(Pusahispida)andbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)harvestedintheAlaskanBeringand Chukchiseasduringhistorical(197501984)andrecent(200302012)periodsTheyfoundthe proportionoffishinthedietofbothspeciesincreasedintherecentreduced0iceperiodcomparedtothehistoricalperiodInadditionringedsealsgrewfasterhadthickerblubber andmaturedtwoyearsearlierBeardedsealshadthickerblubberintherecentperiodbut didnotmanifesttheotherchangesreportedfortheringedsealsAlthoughanumberofthe comparisonswerenotstatisticallysignificanttakentogethertheseobservationssuggestgreaterfishavailabilityintheAlaskanBering0Chukchimarineecosystemsupportinggood bodyconditionintheseals

AsinthesealpaperDivokyetal(2015)parsedalong0termdatasetintorecent(200302012)andhistorical(197501984)periodstocompareoceanographicconditionsnestlingdietandfledgingsuccessatablackguillemot(Cepphusgryllemandtii)breedingcolonyinthewestern BeaufortSeaFrom15Julyto1Septemberseaiceretreatedanaverageof18kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof958kmfromthecolonyduringthehistoricalperiodwhileinthe recentperiodiceretreataveraged98kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof5069kmSeasurfacetemperaturenearthecolonyincreasedby29⁰CbetweenthetwoperiodsWhileArcticcodcomprisedover95ofthepreyprovidedtonestlingsinthehistoricalperiodthis proportiondecreasedtolt5ofthenestlingdietduringmostyearsintherecentperiodwhendemersalsculpin(Cottidae)comprisedthemajorityofthedietTheshiftawayfrom Arcticcodwasassociatedwithafive0foldincreaseintherateofnestlingstarvationand reductionsinnestlinggrowthandfledgingmassConverselyannualadultsurvivalduringthe nonbreedingseason(September0May)showednosignificantdifferencebetweenthetwo periodssuggestingnochangeintheavailabilityofArcticcodorinoverallpreyavailabilityto blackguillemotsintheirBeringSeawinteringarea

IncontrasttoarelianceonpelagicpreyLovvornetal(2015)investigatedpotentialclimate0 relatedlimitstobenthicfeedingbyseaducksalongtheirmigrationcorridorinthenortheasternChukchiSeaKingeiders(Somateriaspectabilis)primarilyeatclams(bivalves) duringmigrationandrecentsamplinghasshownthatdenseclamassemblagesoccuronlyinspecificlocationsalongthemigrationcorridorSeaicecanpreventeidersfromreachingtheseprimefeedingsiteswithsatellitedataforApril‒May(2001‒2013)showingthataccess canvaryfrom0‒100InawarmingandincreasinglyvariableclimateaccesstobenthicfeedingsitesmaybefurthererodedbytheeffectsofwindsonunconsolidatediceThese

26

resultsunderscoretheimportanceofmaintainingarangeofbenthicfeedingareasthroughoutthemigrationcorridortoensurepreyavailabilitytotheeiderseachyear)

4)Upper)Trophic)Level)Species)marine)birds)and)mammals)as)ecosystem)sentinels

Astoppredatorsmarinebirdsandmammalsmustadapttochangesintheirhabitatsresultingfromphysicalforcingandtherebycanserveassentinelstoecosystemshifts(Mooreetal2014MooreandGulland2014)ResponsesofUTLspeciestoalteredhabitatscanbe categorizedasextrinsicincludingshiftsinrangemigratorytiming(phenology)orregionsofhighabundance(hotspots)orintrinsicincludingchangesindietbodyconditionand chemicalcomposition(Fig5)

Figure)5)Marine)birds)and)mammals)are)upper)trophic)level)(UTL))species)that)reflect)ecosystem) alterations)by)changes)in)habitat)use)(extrinsic))and)body)condition)(intrinsic))revealing)fundamental) changes)in)marine)ecosystems)

Responsesareinter0relatedsuchthatashiftinrangephenologyoruseofhotspotswillbe reflectedinchangesindietbodyconditionandchemistryItisthisconnectionthatallowsus

27

todetectecosystemreorganizationbytrackingchangesintheecologyandphysiologyofUTL speciesAlthoughtherehavebeennocoordinatedlong0termstudiesofUTLspeciesinthe PacificArcticexaminingthisconnectionasynthesisofinformationfromvisualsurveyssatellitetaggingofindividualsandyear0roundacousticdetectionsprovidesanecological foundationthatcanprovideabaselinetoinformfutureinvestigations

41Seasonaloccurrencehotspothabitatsandacousticecology

Kuletzetal(2015)depictspatialpatternsofrelativeabundanceofseabirdsandmarinemammalsinsummerandfallderivedfromsixyearsofvisualsurveysintheeasternChukchi andwesternBeaufortseasUsingstatisticalspatialanalysistoolshotspotsforseabirdswalrusandgraywhaleswereidentifiedintheChukchiSeawhilehotspotsforbowheadwhalesandsealsweredescribednearBarrowCanyonandalongtheBeaufortSeashelfand slopeHotspotsforbelugasoccurredinboththeChukchiandBeaufortseasInsummerthreehotspotsweresharedbybothseabirdsandmarinemammalsintheChukchiSeawaters offshoreWainwrightsouthofHannaShoalandatthemouthofBarrowCanyonOnlytheBarrowCanyonhotspotwasoccupiedthroughthefallSharedhotspotswerecharacterized bystrongfrontscausedbyupwellingandcurrentswhichcanservetoaggregatepreyUsingadifferentapproachCittaetal(2015)providedetailedanalysisoftheseasonalmovementsandhabitatusebyasinglespeciesthroughoutoneyearLocationsfrom54bowheadwhales (Balaenamysticetus)obtainedbysatellitetelemetryfrom200602012wereusedtoidentifya totalofsixcore0useareasintheBeaufort(3)Chukchi(1)andnorthernBering(2)seas Takentogetherthetimingofuse(phenology)andphysicalcharacteristics(oceanographyseaiceandwinds)associatedwitheachareadescribeaseasonalcircuitbythewhalesthroughareasthoughttosupportelevatedpreydensities

Passiveacousticsamplinghasbecomeacommonyear0roundtooltodetectcallingmarine mammalsinarcticseas(Mooreetal2006Staffordetal2012)Since2007therehasbeenanespeciallystrongsamplingeffortassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationinthenortheast ChukchiandwesternBeaufortseas(egHannayetal2013 httpwwwafscnoaagovnmmlcetaceanchaozphp)Theserecorderdeployments augmentalong0standingacousticstudyinthecentralBeaufortSea(Blackwelletal2007)andmorerecentdeploymentsintheBeringStraitregion(KStaffordperscomm)HeretoforeresearchersconductedeachofthesestudiesindependentlyofoneanotherClark etal(2015)presentsanovelsynthesisofthecombinedoutputfromsixresearcheffortsusingfourtypesofrecordersandavarietyofsub0samplingandanalysisschemestodescribean lsquoacousticyearrsquointhelifeofthebowheadwhaleDetectionsofbowheadcallsfrom20sitesextendingover2300kmfromthenorthernBeringSeatothesoutheastBeaufortSeawere combinedovera140monthperiod(200902010)todescribewhaleoccurrenceacrosstheir rangeThespatialandtemporalvariabilityinsoundlevelswithinthefrequencybandofbowheadwhaleswasalsoquantifiedThelowestunderwatersoundlevelsoccurredfromlate NovemberuntilMayintheChukchiSeaDuringwinter200902010singingbowheadwhaleselevatedbroadbandsoundlevelsforroughly38daysinthenorthernBeringSeafollowedby

28

asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

29

ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

31

Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

32

(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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46

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DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarcticsea iceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161

DruckenmillerMLCittaJJFergusonMCClarkeJTGeorgeJCQuakenbushLinpressTrendsinsea0icecoverwithinbowheadwhalehabitatsinthePacificArctic

47

DuntonKHGrebmeierJM andTrefry JH2017HannaShoalAnintegrativestudyofaHighArcticmarineecosystemintheChukchiSeaDeepSeaResearchPartIIDOI 101016jdsr2201709001

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FeelyRADoneySCCooleySR2009Oceanacidificationpresentconditionsandfuture changesinahigh0CO2worldOceanography2236047

FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015DivergentpatternsofrecentseaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049

GeorgeJCBadaJZehJScottLBrownSEOharaTampSuydamR1999Ageandgrowthestimatesofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)viaasparticacid racemizationCanadianJournalofZoology775710580

GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgress inOceanography1362500262

GilesKALaxonSWRidoutALWinghamDJBaconS2012WesternArcticOceanfreshwaterstorageincreasedbywind0drivenspin0upoftheBeaufortGyreNature Geoscience51940197

GrebmeierJMOverlandJEMooreSEFarleyEVCarmackECCooperLWFreyKEHelleJHMcLaughlinFAMcNuttSL2006AmajorecosystemshiftinthenorthernBeringSeaScience311146101464

GrebmeierJM2012ShiftingpatternsoflifeinthePacificArcticandsub0arcticseasAnnual ReviewofMarineScience41610166

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GrebmeierJMMooreSE Overland JEFrey KEandGradinger R2010BiologicalresponsetorecentPacificArcticseaiceretreatsEOS91(18)1610168

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HillVArdynaMLeeSHVarelaDEinpressDecadaltrendsinphytoplankton productioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

preferenceandbehaviorinthenortheasternChukchiSea1982084RepIntWhale Commn362730279

MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

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Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

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Page 17: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

Table)3))Papers)included)in)the)2015)SOAR)special)issue)of)Progress)in)Oceanography)

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsofthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011 WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressinOceanography13612031 FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015Divergentpatternsofrecent seaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049 WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059 ArrigoKRvanDijkenGL2015ContinuedincreasesinArcticOceanprimaryproductionProgressinOceanography13660070 MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJNFeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091 GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarkeJTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSHLovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015EcosystemcharacteristicsandprocessesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114 LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132 CrawfordJAQuakenbushLTCittaJJ2015Acomparisonofringedandbeardedsealdietconditionandproductivitybetweenhistorical(1975ndash1984)andrecent(2003ndash2012)periodsintheAlaskanBeringandChukchiseasProgressinOceanography1361330150 DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarctic seaiceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161 LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015LimitstobenthicfeedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchangingseaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174 KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015SeasonalspatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareas ProgressinOceanography1361750200 CittaJJQuakenbushLTOkkonenSRDruckenmillerMLMaslowskiWClement0KinneyJGeorgeJCBrowerHSmallRJAshjianCJHarwoodLAHeide0Joslashrgensen MP2015Ecologicalcharacteristicsofcore0useareasusedbyBeringndashChukchindashBeaufort(BCB)bowheadwhales2006ndash2012ProgressinOceanography1362010222

17

ClarkCWBerchokCLBlackwellSBHannayDEJonesJPonirakisDStafford KM2015AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasProgressinOceanography1362230240 MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationshipbetweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249 GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgressinOceanography1362500262 HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015ChangeintheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE2

Followingthe2015publicationofthefirstSOARspecialissueinProgressinOceanography theSOARprojectSSCandparticipantsdecidedtopursuecoordinatethepublicationofasetofpapersinfullsecondspecialissueThosePhase2topicsandpaperleadswerediscussedat theannualSOARSSCmeetinginJanuary2015Baseduponsuggestionsatthismeeting102pageproposalswererequestedfromsuggestedpaperleadsandproposalswerethen subsequentlydevelopedintopublishedpapersThemajorityofpapersforthesecondspecial issuewerecompletedandinpressbytheendof2017(Table4)withfinalpublicationofthe completespecialissueinDeepSeaResearchIIndashTopicalStudiesinOceanographyexpectedby latesummer2018

Table)4))Papers)to)appear)in)the)SOAR)2nd)Phase)special)issue)published)in)Deep)Sea)Research)Part)II)

Corresponding) Author Manuscript)Title

SueMoore IntroductionTheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)Project

MuyinWang SeaiceandoceancharacteristicsintheChukchiSeabyselectedCMIP5modelsthepresentandthefuture

NicholasBond DiagnosisofphysicaloceanographiceventsintheChukchiSea usinganoceanreanalysis

VictoriaHill DecadaltrendsinphytoplanktonproductioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

18

JessicaCross FormationandtransportofcorrosivewaterinthePacificArcticRegion

LeeCooper DepositionpatternsontheChukchiShelfusingradionuclide inventoriesinrelationtosurfacesedimentcharacteristics

Matthew Druckenmiller

Trendsinsea0icecoverandupwellingpotentialwithinBowheadwhaleuseareasintheWesternArctic

KateStafford AcousticecologyofbowheadandbelugawhalesincoreuseareasintheBeaufortandChukchiSeas

JohnCitta Oceanographiccharacteristicsassociatedwithbowheadwhale movementsintheChukchiSea

JohnCitta SeasonaldistributionandoverlapofmarinemammalsintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseas

KimberlyRand UsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

ElizabethLogerwell Environmentaldriversofbenthicfishdistributioninandaround BarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwesternBeaufortSea

KathleenStafford BelugawhalesintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaasynthesisofavailableinformationontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StephenOkkonen Relationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskanBeaufortSea

MartinRobards UnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesintheAlaskanArcticPlace0basedcollaborationswithAlaskaNative communities

SueMoore TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)ModellinkingtemporalprocessestocontiguousdomainsinthePacificArctic

19

PRESENTATIONSANDPOSTERSATSCIENTIFICMEETINGS

SOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandcontributorsmademorethan50presentationsincludinginformationaboutthissynthesiseffortatavarietyofscientificmeetingsworkshopsandwebinarsAfulllistofthesepresentationsisprovidedinAppendixC

OTHERCOMMUNICATIONOFSYNTHESISAPPROACHANDPRODUCTS

TheSynthesisofArcticResearchwebsitelocatedathttpswwwpmelnoaagovsoar providesbackgroundinformationandup0to0datescienceproductinformationtostakeholders andthegeneralpublicThewebsitewillcontinuetobeliveandhostedbyNOAA

Severalpeer0reviewedpaperswerepublishedthatalsoappealtoamoregeneralortrans0 disciplineaudienceincludingSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)andSheffieldGuyetal(2016)SOARsynthesisresultswerefeaturedinnumerousnewspapersonlinefeaturesmagazines andmore

SYNTHESIS)SUMMARY)AND)DISCUSSION)

SOARPHASEI

ThefirstphaseofSOARresultedinfifteenpaperspublishedinaspecialissueofProgressin Oceanographyin2015(Table3)HereweprovideabroadoverviewanddiscussionofthepapersinthatspecialissuedrawnfromtheIntroductiontothatissue(MooreandStabeno 2015)

1 Introduction)

TheinitiationoftheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)projectcoincidedwiththerecognitionthatbiophysicalchangesinthePacificArcticregionweresoextremecomparedtotherecentpastthattheyacquiredthemonikerlsquonewnormalrsquo(Jeffriesetal2013) ConsequentlydescribingthebiophysicalpropertiesofthelsquonewlsquoPacificArcticmarineecosystemwasfoundationaltotheSOAReffortandthefocusoffivepapersinthefirstspecial issueExaminingbiologicalresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingthenbecamethetaskofresearchersfocusedonthestudyoflowertrophiclevel(LTL)communitiesanduppertrophiclevel(UTL)speciesTwopapersprovideintegratedresultsfromdirectsamplingofbenthic andfishcommunitieswhilethreepapersreportonchangesinLTLspeciesoccurrenceinferredbyshiftsinthedietsofsealsandmarinebirdsSixpapersfocusonUTLspecieswith fourpresentinginformationonseasonaloccurrenceinhotspotorcore0usehabitatsandtwo describingvariabilityinmarinemammalbodyconditioninthecontextofdecadal0scale

20

environmentalvariabilityTogetherthesepapersprovideasyntheticcontexttofocushypothesesunderpinningthenextdecadeofresearchinthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

2)Biophysics)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

ThePacificArcticmarineecosystemiscomprisedofinflowshelves(northernBeringandChukchiseas)coupledtointeriorshelves(EastSiberianandBeaufortseas)withthe contrastingbiophysicsofthesedomainssummarizedinCarmacketal(2006)Circulationon bothinflowandinteriorshelvesislinkedtopan0arcticteleconnectionmechanisms(egArcticOscillation)withinteriorshelvesalsostronglyinfluencedbytheseasonaloutflowof relativelywarmfreshwaterfromarcticriversEvaluatingecosystemstatusandtrendsinthePacificArcticwasthefocusofarecentbookwith10(of12)chaptersdevotedtoobservationsandmodelingoftheatmosphereoceanphysicsandchemistry(GrebmeierandMaslowski 2014)Thepapersinthefirstspecialissueaddtothatbodyofknowledgeespeciallywithregardtobiologicalresponsestobiophysicaldriversandinthiswaycontributetoamore holisticunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

21)PhysicalobservationsandopenwaterprojectionsinthelsquonewnormalrsquoPacificArctic

Recentobservations(200302013)ofenvironmentalchangesinthePacificArcticsupportthecontentionthatanewnormalclimateisemerging(Fig3Jeffriesetal2013Woodetal 2015)

Figure)3))Highlights)of)recent)biophysical)changes)in)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

21

Theiconicindicatorofthischangeisthedramaticsummertimelossofseaice(50byarea75byvolume)whichinsomeyears(eg2012)hasresultedinnearlyice0freeconditionsin theregionSpecificallysatellitedatafrom197902012reveallocalizedchangesinsea0ice occurrenceofupto0164daysyearintheCanadaBasinand0124daysyearintheBeaufort Seawhichacceleratedto0657daysyear(CanadaBasin)and01284daysyear(Beaufort Sea)duringthe200002012period(Freyetal2015)Multiyearseaicehasalmostentirelydisappearedwithinter0annualvariabilityiniceconcentrationlargelydrivenbywindforcing intheBeaufortSeaIntheCanadaBasindifferencesinannualseaiceareprimarilythermallydrivenwhilesea0iceextentisinfluencedbybothwindsandheatontheBeringSeashelf

Thesummeratmosphericpatternsinfluenceoceancirculationfreshwaterpathwaysand movementandmeltingofseaiceDuringthelastdecadetheintensificationoftheBeaufortHigh(OgiandWallace2012)resultedinanomaloussummerwindsTheseanomalouswinds togetherwiththelossofmulti0yeariceweretheprimaryfactorsthattransformedtheChukchiandnorthernBeaufortseasintoanopenwaterenvironment(Woodetal2015)InparticulartheeasternBeaufortSeaappearstobeparticularlysusceptibletoanomalouswindsthrough theireffectontheadvectionofwarmfreshwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumeInadditiontransportanomaliesintheBeringStraitaredeterminedbycompetinglarge0scale atmosphericpatternstheBeaufortHighandAleutianLow(Danielsonetal2014)NotablychangesinBeringStraitflowthroughcanimpacttheworldclimatefarbeyondtheBeringStraitandArcticregion(egHuetal2015)

Freyetal(2015)investigatetheinfluenceofthePacificDecadalOscillation(PDO)andtheArcticOscillation(AO)onthepersistenceofseaiceinsummerandwinterTheyfoundsignificantnegativecorrelationsbetweenseaiceonthesoutheasternBeringSeashelfandthe PDOinwinteraswellassignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweentheAOandsea0icecoverjustsouthofStLawrenceIslandSignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweenthePDOandsea iceintheCanadaBasin0CanadianArchipelagowerefoundinsummeraswellasbetweentheAOandseaiceintheChukchi0BeaufortseasThisnovelinvestigationofteleconnections betweenthePDOtheAOandsea0icecoverprovidesacriticalstepinunderstandinghow globalandregionalclimatepatternsinfluencethephysicsofthePacificArcticregion

Theunprecedentedlossofseaicehasresultedinatremendousincreaseinopen0water susceptibletorapidsolarheatingwithadditionalheatandfreshwaterprovidedbya50 increaseinPacificWaterinflowatBeringStraitfrom200102011(Woodgateetal2012 Woodetal2015)TheinfluenceofincreasedheatstoredintheChukchiandBeaufortseasis notwellunderstoodSuggestionsthatheatreleasedtotheatmosphereinlateautumnandwinterdrivesaspectsofmid0latitudeweatherremainspeculativelargelyduetotheshort timerecordavailable(Woodetal2015)FresheningoftheArcticOceanhasbeenoccurring atleastsincethe1990s(egGilesetal2012)Severalexplanationshavebeenproposed includingincreasedsea0icemeltfresherPacificWaterflowingthroughBeringStraitchanges inthemagnitudeofriverdischargeandthemeanstrengtheningoftheBeaufortHighInrecentyearsrelativelystrongeasterlywindshavebeencommonduetotheArctic0wide

22

patternofcirculationaroundanintensifiedBeaufortHighUndertheseconditionsfreshand warmwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumecanbelaterallytransportedfaroutintothe BeaufortSea(Woodetal2015)

WangandOverland(2015)comparedresultsfromtwelvecoupledclimatemodelstoproducecompositeprojectionsofthedurationofopenwaterintheChukchiandBeaufortseasat decadalintervalsfrom201002050andin2090Forwatersnorthofthe70degNopen0water durationshiftsfrom304monthsin2010toaprojected~5monthsby2040Projectedopen0 waterdurationisaboutonemonthlongeralongthesamelatitudesintheChukchiSeacomparedwiththeBeaufortSeawithuncertaintyofaboutplusmn1monthestimatedfromtherangeofmodelresultsAllmodelsprojectedopen0waterdurationtoexpandquicklyoverthe nextthreedecadeswhichwillimpactregionaleconomicaccessandpotentiallyalterecosystemsYetthePacificArcticregionwillremaincoveredwiththinfirst0yearicefrom JanuarythroughMayintothesecondhalfofthecenturyduetoseasonallackofsunlight

22Changesinprimaryproductionandoceanacidification

Thedramaticlossofsea0iceextentandvolumehasresultedinaconcomitantincreaseinlightpenetrationintheupperoceanacrosstheArcticGiventhethinningandarealreductionof seaiceafundamentalquestionariseshavethesechangesfosteredanincreaseinmarineprimaryproductionSpecificallyisthePacificArcticregionmoreproductivethanitwasthreedecadesagoIntheAtlanticArcticLeuetal(2011)measuredprimaryproductionby bothicealgaeandphytoplanktonincontrastingyears(2007008)ofsea0icecoverinaSvalbardfjordandconcludedthatearliericebreakupcorrespondedwithearlieronsetofa phytoplanktonbloomSimilarlyTremblayetal(2012)reportincreasedprimaryproductionfor2007008associatedwithextremesea0iceretreatsandincreasedupwellingatstations locatedsouthandeastofBanksIslandinthesoutheasternBeaufortSeaButcanconclusions drawnfrommeasurementssorestrictedinspaceandtimebeextrapolatedtolargerarcticregionsUsingsatelliteimageryArrigoandvanDijken(2015)investigatedchangesinseaice atbothregionalandbasinscalesfrom199802012andestimatedhowthesechangeshaveimpactedratesofnetprimaryproduction(NPP)byphytoplanktonTheyreportthatannual NPPincreased30duringthisperiodwiththelargestincreasesontheinteriorshelves (includingtheEastSiberianandBeaufort)andsmallerincreasesoninflowshelves(includingtheChukchi)OutflowshelveseitherexhibitednochangeinannualNPPoradeclineperhaps indicatingthatnutrientshadbeenconsumedfurtherupstreamIncreasedannualNPPwasoftenbutnotalwaysassociatedwithreducedsea0iceextentandresultantlonger phytoplanktongrowingseason

HumanactivitieshaveincreasedtheatmosphericCO2concentrationbyabout40sincethebeginningoftheindustrialageanditisestimatedthattheoceanhasabsorbedmorethan25

23

ofthetotalanthropogenicemissions(Mathisetal2015)TheoceanicuptakeofCO2triggersaseriesofchemicalreactionsinthesurfaceoceanthatreducespHandresultsinocean acidification(OA)InshortOAmakesseawatercorrosivetocalciumcarbonatemineralswhichmanymarineorganismsrelyonforbodystructuresHigh0latitudeoceanshave naturallylowcarbonateconcentrationssoareconsideredtobemorevulnerabletotheimpactsofOAbecauseadditionalcarbonatelossrepresentsamuchgreaterproportionalchangetothesystemInanovelstudyMathisetalprovideariskassessmentofOAimpacts tocommercialandtraditionalfisheriesfocusedonshellfishsalmonandfinfishTheresultant indexsuggeststhatwhilethenorthernBeringSeaisatmediumriskfromOAimpactsto fisheriesPacificArcticwatersnorthoftheSewardPeninsulaarecurrentlyatlowriskduelargelytoalackofdependenceonthesefoodsources

3)Lower)Trophic)Level)Communities)signals)from)direct)and)indirect)sampling

ThepredominantconceptualmodelframinghowmarineecosystemsinthePacificArctic respondtoreducedseaiceisbasedonchangesanticipatedfromashiftinpelagic0benthic coupling(Fig4)

Figure)4))Generalized)conceptual)model)depicting)the)influence)of)sea)ice)on)pelagicVbenthic)coupling)on) Pacific)Arctic)continental)shelves)

24

OnthebroadshelvesthatcomprisemuchofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemnewprimaryproductionfromsea0icealgaeandphytoplanktonbloomsfallstotheseafloortosupportrich benthiccommunities(Grebmeier2012)Asseaicethinsandretreatsearlierintheseasonitisanticipatedthatearlierandlargerphytoplanktonbloomswillswitchfromabenthic0 dominatedtoapelagic0dominatedmarineecosystemThisshiftwillcascadethroughthesystemsupportingnovelcommunitiesofsecondaryandtertiaryconsumers(zooplanktonandforagefishes)anduppertrophiclevelmarinebirdsandmammalsIndeedGrebmeieret al(2006)suggestedthatthistypeofecosystemshiftisalreadyunderwayinthemarinecommunitiesofthenorthernBeringSeaThePacificArcticisoftendescribedasabenthic0 dominatedmarineecosystemonethatdoesnotsupportalargebiomassorspeciesdiversityoffishesAdescriptionofconditionsthathavefosteredexistingbenthichotspotsoffersa solidfoundationforassessingfuturechangeswhileanaccountingoftheexistingcommunitiesofmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsprovidesastartingpointuponwhichtobuildalong0termrecord)

31Benthichotspotsandmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitats

ArecordofextantconditionsiskeytointerpretingmarineecosystemresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingnowevidentinthePacificArcticSucharecordexistsforfourbenthic lsquohotspotrsquocommunitiesinthenorthernBeringandChukchiseas(Grebmeieretal2015a)but notformarinefishesLong0termsamplingofbenthicmacrofaunalcommunitiesindicatesthatthebenthichotspotshavemaintainedconsistentlyhighbiomassforuptofourdecadesdueto reoccurrenceofseasonallyreliablemoderate0to0highwatercolumnproductioncoupledwithexportofcarbonfromoverlyingwaterstotheseafloorUppertrophiclevelbenthivorestargetpreyaggregationsineachofthehotspotsOverallbottom0upforcingbyhydrography andfoodsupplytothebenthosinfluencespersistenceandcompositionofbenthicpreywhichinturninfluencestheuppertrophiclevelspeciescompositionandseasonaloccurrence Whenconsistentlysampledintandemthesebenthos0benthivoreconnectionscanfacilitate useofUTLspeciesassentinelsofshiftsinpreycompositionandabundance(Mooreetal2014)

Sincethe2000stherehavebeenahostofArcticmarinefishsurveysintheChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasprecipitatedbybothscientificinterestintheimpactsofclimatechangeandcommercialinterestinoilandgasdevelopment(Logerwelletal2015)Resultsfrom thesesurveysprovideanovelopportunitytocompareArcticfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsrangingfromlagoonsandbeachestobenthicandpelagiccontinental shelfwatersAsynthesisofdatafromthesesurveysrevealedmoresimilaritiesthandifferencesinhabitatusebetweenthetwoseasForexamplenearshorehabitatisusedbyallageclassesofforagefishesandisalsoanurseryareaforotherspeciesinboththeChukchiand westernBeaufortseasNotablysomecommercialspeciesmaybeexpandingtheirrangenorthtothesewatersincludingchinooksalmon(Oncorhynchustshawytscha)walleyepollock (Gaduschalcogrammus)andflatfishes(Pleuronectidae)Inadditionasynthesisofinformationonrelativeabundanceandageofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)andsaffroncod

25

(Eleginusgracilis)bothkeypreyspeciesinArcticfoodwebssupportedthedevelopmentoflifehistoryanddistributionmodelsthatwillinformfutureresearchontrophicdynamicsin thePacificArcticsector

32Inferencesofmarineecosystemshiftsfromsealsseabirdsandseaducks

Additionalinformationregardingtheimpactoflsquonewnormalrsquobiophysicalconditionsonlowertrophiclevelspeciescanbeinferredfromshiftsinthedietandbodyconditionofmarine mammalsandbirdsCrawfordetal(2015)comparedthedietandconditionofringedseals(Pusahispida)andbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)harvestedintheAlaskanBeringand Chukchiseasduringhistorical(197501984)andrecent(200302012)periodsTheyfoundthe proportionoffishinthedietofbothspeciesincreasedintherecentreduced0iceperiodcomparedtothehistoricalperiodInadditionringedsealsgrewfasterhadthickerblubber andmaturedtwoyearsearlierBeardedsealshadthickerblubberintherecentperiodbut didnotmanifesttheotherchangesreportedfortheringedsealsAlthoughanumberofthe comparisonswerenotstatisticallysignificanttakentogethertheseobservationssuggestgreaterfishavailabilityintheAlaskanBering0Chukchimarineecosystemsupportinggood bodyconditionintheseals

AsinthesealpaperDivokyetal(2015)parsedalong0termdatasetintorecent(200302012)andhistorical(197501984)periodstocompareoceanographicconditionsnestlingdietandfledgingsuccessatablackguillemot(Cepphusgryllemandtii)breedingcolonyinthewestern BeaufortSeaFrom15Julyto1Septemberseaiceretreatedanaverageof18kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof958kmfromthecolonyduringthehistoricalperiodwhileinthe recentperiodiceretreataveraged98kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof5069kmSeasurfacetemperaturenearthecolonyincreasedby29⁰CbetweenthetwoperiodsWhileArcticcodcomprisedover95ofthepreyprovidedtonestlingsinthehistoricalperiodthis proportiondecreasedtolt5ofthenestlingdietduringmostyearsintherecentperiodwhendemersalsculpin(Cottidae)comprisedthemajorityofthedietTheshiftawayfrom Arcticcodwasassociatedwithafive0foldincreaseintherateofnestlingstarvationand reductionsinnestlinggrowthandfledgingmassConverselyannualadultsurvivalduringthe nonbreedingseason(September0May)showednosignificantdifferencebetweenthetwo periodssuggestingnochangeintheavailabilityofArcticcodorinoverallpreyavailabilityto blackguillemotsintheirBeringSeawinteringarea

IncontrasttoarelianceonpelagicpreyLovvornetal(2015)investigatedpotentialclimate0 relatedlimitstobenthicfeedingbyseaducksalongtheirmigrationcorridorinthenortheasternChukchiSeaKingeiders(Somateriaspectabilis)primarilyeatclams(bivalves) duringmigrationandrecentsamplinghasshownthatdenseclamassemblagesoccuronlyinspecificlocationsalongthemigrationcorridorSeaicecanpreventeidersfromreachingtheseprimefeedingsiteswithsatellitedataforApril‒May(2001‒2013)showingthataccess canvaryfrom0‒100InawarmingandincreasinglyvariableclimateaccesstobenthicfeedingsitesmaybefurthererodedbytheeffectsofwindsonunconsolidatediceThese

26

resultsunderscoretheimportanceofmaintainingarangeofbenthicfeedingareasthroughoutthemigrationcorridortoensurepreyavailabilitytotheeiderseachyear)

4)Upper)Trophic)Level)Species)marine)birds)and)mammals)as)ecosystem)sentinels

Astoppredatorsmarinebirdsandmammalsmustadapttochangesintheirhabitatsresultingfromphysicalforcingandtherebycanserveassentinelstoecosystemshifts(Mooreetal2014MooreandGulland2014)ResponsesofUTLspeciestoalteredhabitatscanbe categorizedasextrinsicincludingshiftsinrangemigratorytiming(phenology)orregionsofhighabundance(hotspots)orintrinsicincludingchangesindietbodyconditionand chemicalcomposition(Fig5)

Figure)5)Marine)birds)and)mammals)are)upper)trophic)level)(UTL))species)that)reflect)ecosystem) alterations)by)changes)in)habitat)use)(extrinsic))and)body)condition)(intrinsic))revealing)fundamental) changes)in)marine)ecosystems)

Responsesareinter0relatedsuchthatashiftinrangephenologyoruseofhotspotswillbe reflectedinchangesindietbodyconditionandchemistryItisthisconnectionthatallowsus

27

todetectecosystemreorganizationbytrackingchangesintheecologyandphysiologyofUTL speciesAlthoughtherehavebeennocoordinatedlong0termstudiesofUTLspeciesinthe PacificArcticexaminingthisconnectionasynthesisofinformationfromvisualsurveyssatellitetaggingofindividualsandyear0roundacousticdetectionsprovidesanecological foundationthatcanprovideabaselinetoinformfutureinvestigations

41Seasonaloccurrencehotspothabitatsandacousticecology

Kuletzetal(2015)depictspatialpatternsofrelativeabundanceofseabirdsandmarinemammalsinsummerandfallderivedfromsixyearsofvisualsurveysintheeasternChukchi andwesternBeaufortseasUsingstatisticalspatialanalysistoolshotspotsforseabirdswalrusandgraywhaleswereidentifiedintheChukchiSeawhilehotspotsforbowheadwhalesandsealsweredescribednearBarrowCanyonandalongtheBeaufortSeashelfand slopeHotspotsforbelugasoccurredinboththeChukchiandBeaufortseasInsummerthreehotspotsweresharedbybothseabirdsandmarinemammalsintheChukchiSeawaters offshoreWainwrightsouthofHannaShoalandatthemouthofBarrowCanyonOnlytheBarrowCanyonhotspotwasoccupiedthroughthefallSharedhotspotswerecharacterized bystrongfrontscausedbyupwellingandcurrentswhichcanservetoaggregatepreyUsingadifferentapproachCittaetal(2015)providedetailedanalysisoftheseasonalmovementsandhabitatusebyasinglespeciesthroughoutoneyearLocationsfrom54bowheadwhales (Balaenamysticetus)obtainedbysatellitetelemetryfrom200602012wereusedtoidentifya totalofsixcore0useareasintheBeaufort(3)Chukchi(1)andnorthernBering(2)seas Takentogetherthetimingofuse(phenology)andphysicalcharacteristics(oceanographyseaiceandwinds)associatedwitheachareadescribeaseasonalcircuitbythewhalesthroughareasthoughttosupportelevatedpreydensities

Passiveacousticsamplinghasbecomeacommonyear0roundtooltodetectcallingmarine mammalsinarcticseas(Mooreetal2006Staffordetal2012)Since2007therehasbeenanespeciallystrongsamplingeffortassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationinthenortheast ChukchiandwesternBeaufortseas(egHannayetal2013 httpwwwafscnoaagovnmmlcetaceanchaozphp)Theserecorderdeployments augmentalong0standingacousticstudyinthecentralBeaufortSea(Blackwelletal2007)andmorerecentdeploymentsintheBeringStraitregion(KStaffordperscomm)HeretoforeresearchersconductedeachofthesestudiesindependentlyofoneanotherClark etal(2015)presentsanovelsynthesisofthecombinedoutputfromsixresearcheffortsusingfourtypesofrecordersandavarietyofsub0samplingandanalysisschemestodescribean lsquoacousticyearrsquointhelifeofthebowheadwhaleDetectionsofbowheadcallsfrom20sitesextendingover2300kmfromthenorthernBeringSeatothesoutheastBeaufortSeawere combinedovera140monthperiod(200902010)todescribewhaleoccurrenceacrosstheir rangeThespatialandtemporalvariabilityinsoundlevelswithinthefrequencybandofbowheadwhaleswasalsoquantifiedThelowestunderwatersoundlevelsoccurredfromlate NovemberuntilMayintheChukchiSeaDuringwinter200902010singingbowheadwhaleselevatedbroadbandsoundlevelsforroughly38daysinthenorthernBeringSeafollowedby

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asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

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ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

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Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

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(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

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Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Moore

TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

Mathis

UsinganEnvironmentalIntelligenceFrameworktoEvaluatetheImpactsof

OceanAcidificationintheArctic

ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

26(Jan(2017(

Moore

The

Arc

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arin

e Pu

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nnua

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the

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

24(Jan(2017(

VanPelt

Synt

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rctic

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OA

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22(Apr(2017(

Moore

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 18: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

ClarkCWBerchokCLBlackwellSBHannayDEJonesJPonirakisDStafford KM2015AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasProgressinOceanography1362230240 MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationshipbetweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249 GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgressinOceanography1362500262 HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015ChangeintheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

PEER0REVIEWEDPUBLICATIONSmdashPHASE2

Followingthe2015publicationofthefirstSOARspecialissueinProgressinOceanography theSOARprojectSSCandparticipantsdecidedtopursuecoordinatethepublicationofasetofpapersinfullsecondspecialissueThosePhase2topicsandpaperleadswerediscussedat theannualSOARSSCmeetinginJanuary2015Baseduponsuggestionsatthismeeting102pageproposalswererequestedfromsuggestedpaperleadsandproposalswerethen subsequentlydevelopedintopublishedpapersThemajorityofpapersforthesecondspecial issuewerecompletedandinpressbytheendof2017(Table4)withfinalpublicationofthe completespecialissueinDeepSeaResearchIIndashTopicalStudiesinOceanographyexpectedby latesummer2018

Table)4))Papers)to)appear)in)the)SOAR)2nd)Phase)special)issue)published)in)Deep)Sea)Research)Part)II)

Corresponding) Author Manuscript)Title

SueMoore IntroductionTheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)Project

MuyinWang SeaiceandoceancharacteristicsintheChukchiSeabyselectedCMIP5modelsthepresentandthefuture

NicholasBond DiagnosisofphysicaloceanographiceventsintheChukchiSea usinganoceanreanalysis

VictoriaHill DecadaltrendsinphytoplanktonproductioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

18

JessicaCross FormationandtransportofcorrosivewaterinthePacificArcticRegion

LeeCooper DepositionpatternsontheChukchiShelfusingradionuclide inventoriesinrelationtosurfacesedimentcharacteristics

Matthew Druckenmiller

Trendsinsea0icecoverandupwellingpotentialwithinBowheadwhaleuseareasintheWesternArctic

KateStafford AcousticecologyofbowheadandbelugawhalesincoreuseareasintheBeaufortandChukchiSeas

JohnCitta Oceanographiccharacteristicsassociatedwithbowheadwhale movementsintheChukchiSea

JohnCitta SeasonaldistributionandoverlapofmarinemammalsintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseas

KimberlyRand UsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

ElizabethLogerwell Environmentaldriversofbenthicfishdistributioninandaround BarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwesternBeaufortSea

KathleenStafford BelugawhalesintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaasynthesisofavailableinformationontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StephenOkkonen Relationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskanBeaufortSea

MartinRobards UnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesintheAlaskanArcticPlace0basedcollaborationswithAlaskaNative communities

SueMoore TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)ModellinkingtemporalprocessestocontiguousdomainsinthePacificArctic

19

PRESENTATIONSANDPOSTERSATSCIENTIFICMEETINGS

SOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandcontributorsmademorethan50presentationsincludinginformationaboutthissynthesiseffortatavarietyofscientificmeetingsworkshopsandwebinarsAfulllistofthesepresentationsisprovidedinAppendixC

OTHERCOMMUNICATIONOFSYNTHESISAPPROACHANDPRODUCTS

TheSynthesisofArcticResearchwebsitelocatedathttpswwwpmelnoaagovsoar providesbackgroundinformationandup0to0datescienceproductinformationtostakeholders andthegeneralpublicThewebsitewillcontinuetobeliveandhostedbyNOAA

Severalpeer0reviewedpaperswerepublishedthatalsoappealtoamoregeneralortrans0 disciplineaudienceincludingSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)andSheffieldGuyetal(2016)SOARsynthesisresultswerefeaturedinnumerousnewspapersonlinefeaturesmagazines andmore

SYNTHESIS)SUMMARY)AND)DISCUSSION)

SOARPHASEI

ThefirstphaseofSOARresultedinfifteenpaperspublishedinaspecialissueofProgressin Oceanographyin2015(Table3)HereweprovideabroadoverviewanddiscussionofthepapersinthatspecialissuedrawnfromtheIntroductiontothatissue(MooreandStabeno 2015)

1 Introduction)

TheinitiationoftheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)projectcoincidedwiththerecognitionthatbiophysicalchangesinthePacificArcticregionweresoextremecomparedtotherecentpastthattheyacquiredthemonikerlsquonewnormalrsquo(Jeffriesetal2013) ConsequentlydescribingthebiophysicalpropertiesofthelsquonewlsquoPacificArcticmarineecosystemwasfoundationaltotheSOAReffortandthefocusoffivepapersinthefirstspecial issueExaminingbiologicalresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingthenbecamethetaskofresearchersfocusedonthestudyoflowertrophiclevel(LTL)communitiesanduppertrophiclevel(UTL)speciesTwopapersprovideintegratedresultsfromdirectsamplingofbenthic andfishcommunitieswhilethreepapersreportonchangesinLTLspeciesoccurrenceinferredbyshiftsinthedietsofsealsandmarinebirdsSixpapersfocusonUTLspecieswith fourpresentinginformationonseasonaloccurrenceinhotspotorcore0usehabitatsandtwo describingvariabilityinmarinemammalbodyconditioninthecontextofdecadal0scale

20

environmentalvariabilityTogetherthesepapersprovideasyntheticcontexttofocushypothesesunderpinningthenextdecadeofresearchinthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

2)Biophysics)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

ThePacificArcticmarineecosystemiscomprisedofinflowshelves(northernBeringandChukchiseas)coupledtointeriorshelves(EastSiberianandBeaufortseas)withthe contrastingbiophysicsofthesedomainssummarizedinCarmacketal(2006)Circulationon bothinflowandinteriorshelvesislinkedtopan0arcticteleconnectionmechanisms(egArcticOscillation)withinteriorshelvesalsostronglyinfluencedbytheseasonaloutflowof relativelywarmfreshwaterfromarcticriversEvaluatingecosystemstatusandtrendsinthePacificArcticwasthefocusofarecentbookwith10(of12)chaptersdevotedtoobservationsandmodelingoftheatmosphereoceanphysicsandchemistry(GrebmeierandMaslowski 2014)Thepapersinthefirstspecialissueaddtothatbodyofknowledgeespeciallywithregardtobiologicalresponsestobiophysicaldriversandinthiswaycontributetoamore holisticunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

21)PhysicalobservationsandopenwaterprojectionsinthelsquonewnormalrsquoPacificArctic

Recentobservations(200302013)ofenvironmentalchangesinthePacificArcticsupportthecontentionthatanewnormalclimateisemerging(Fig3Jeffriesetal2013Woodetal 2015)

Figure)3))Highlights)of)recent)biophysical)changes)in)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

21

Theiconicindicatorofthischangeisthedramaticsummertimelossofseaice(50byarea75byvolume)whichinsomeyears(eg2012)hasresultedinnearlyice0freeconditionsin theregionSpecificallysatellitedatafrom197902012reveallocalizedchangesinsea0ice occurrenceofupto0164daysyearintheCanadaBasinand0124daysyearintheBeaufort Seawhichacceleratedto0657daysyear(CanadaBasin)and01284daysyear(Beaufort Sea)duringthe200002012period(Freyetal2015)Multiyearseaicehasalmostentirelydisappearedwithinter0annualvariabilityiniceconcentrationlargelydrivenbywindforcing intheBeaufortSeaIntheCanadaBasindifferencesinannualseaiceareprimarilythermallydrivenwhilesea0iceextentisinfluencedbybothwindsandheatontheBeringSeashelf

Thesummeratmosphericpatternsinfluenceoceancirculationfreshwaterpathwaysand movementandmeltingofseaiceDuringthelastdecadetheintensificationoftheBeaufortHigh(OgiandWallace2012)resultedinanomaloussummerwindsTheseanomalouswinds togetherwiththelossofmulti0yeariceweretheprimaryfactorsthattransformedtheChukchiandnorthernBeaufortseasintoanopenwaterenvironment(Woodetal2015)InparticulartheeasternBeaufortSeaappearstobeparticularlysusceptibletoanomalouswindsthrough theireffectontheadvectionofwarmfreshwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumeInadditiontransportanomaliesintheBeringStraitaredeterminedbycompetinglarge0scale atmosphericpatternstheBeaufortHighandAleutianLow(Danielsonetal2014)NotablychangesinBeringStraitflowthroughcanimpacttheworldclimatefarbeyondtheBeringStraitandArcticregion(egHuetal2015)

Freyetal(2015)investigatetheinfluenceofthePacificDecadalOscillation(PDO)andtheArcticOscillation(AO)onthepersistenceofseaiceinsummerandwinterTheyfoundsignificantnegativecorrelationsbetweenseaiceonthesoutheasternBeringSeashelfandthe PDOinwinteraswellassignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweentheAOandsea0icecoverjustsouthofStLawrenceIslandSignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweenthePDOandsea iceintheCanadaBasin0CanadianArchipelagowerefoundinsummeraswellasbetweentheAOandseaiceintheChukchi0BeaufortseasThisnovelinvestigationofteleconnections betweenthePDOtheAOandsea0icecoverprovidesacriticalstepinunderstandinghow globalandregionalclimatepatternsinfluencethephysicsofthePacificArcticregion

Theunprecedentedlossofseaicehasresultedinatremendousincreaseinopen0water susceptibletorapidsolarheatingwithadditionalheatandfreshwaterprovidedbya50 increaseinPacificWaterinflowatBeringStraitfrom200102011(Woodgateetal2012 Woodetal2015)TheinfluenceofincreasedheatstoredintheChukchiandBeaufortseasis notwellunderstoodSuggestionsthatheatreleasedtotheatmosphereinlateautumnandwinterdrivesaspectsofmid0latitudeweatherremainspeculativelargelyduetotheshort timerecordavailable(Woodetal2015)FresheningoftheArcticOceanhasbeenoccurring atleastsincethe1990s(egGilesetal2012)Severalexplanationshavebeenproposed includingincreasedsea0icemeltfresherPacificWaterflowingthroughBeringStraitchanges inthemagnitudeofriverdischargeandthemeanstrengtheningoftheBeaufortHighInrecentyearsrelativelystrongeasterlywindshavebeencommonduetotheArctic0wide

22

patternofcirculationaroundanintensifiedBeaufortHighUndertheseconditionsfreshand warmwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumecanbelaterallytransportedfaroutintothe BeaufortSea(Woodetal2015)

WangandOverland(2015)comparedresultsfromtwelvecoupledclimatemodelstoproducecompositeprojectionsofthedurationofopenwaterintheChukchiandBeaufortseasat decadalintervalsfrom201002050andin2090Forwatersnorthofthe70degNopen0water durationshiftsfrom304monthsin2010toaprojected~5monthsby2040Projectedopen0 waterdurationisaboutonemonthlongeralongthesamelatitudesintheChukchiSeacomparedwiththeBeaufortSeawithuncertaintyofaboutplusmn1monthestimatedfromtherangeofmodelresultsAllmodelsprojectedopen0waterdurationtoexpandquicklyoverthe nextthreedecadeswhichwillimpactregionaleconomicaccessandpotentiallyalterecosystemsYetthePacificArcticregionwillremaincoveredwiththinfirst0yearicefrom JanuarythroughMayintothesecondhalfofthecenturyduetoseasonallackofsunlight

22Changesinprimaryproductionandoceanacidification

Thedramaticlossofsea0iceextentandvolumehasresultedinaconcomitantincreaseinlightpenetrationintheupperoceanacrosstheArcticGiventhethinningandarealreductionof seaiceafundamentalquestionariseshavethesechangesfosteredanincreaseinmarineprimaryproductionSpecificallyisthePacificArcticregionmoreproductivethanitwasthreedecadesagoIntheAtlanticArcticLeuetal(2011)measuredprimaryproductionby bothicealgaeandphytoplanktonincontrastingyears(2007008)ofsea0icecoverinaSvalbardfjordandconcludedthatearliericebreakupcorrespondedwithearlieronsetofa phytoplanktonbloomSimilarlyTremblayetal(2012)reportincreasedprimaryproductionfor2007008associatedwithextremesea0iceretreatsandincreasedupwellingatstations locatedsouthandeastofBanksIslandinthesoutheasternBeaufortSeaButcanconclusions drawnfrommeasurementssorestrictedinspaceandtimebeextrapolatedtolargerarcticregionsUsingsatelliteimageryArrigoandvanDijken(2015)investigatedchangesinseaice atbothregionalandbasinscalesfrom199802012andestimatedhowthesechangeshaveimpactedratesofnetprimaryproduction(NPP)byphytoplanktonTheyreportthatannual NPPincreased30duringthisperiodwiththelargestincreasesontheinteriorshelves (includingtheEastSiberianandBeaufort)andsmallerincreasesoninflowshelves(includingtheChukchi)OutflowshelveseitherexhibitednochangeinannualNPPoradeclineperhaps indicatingthatnutrientshadbeenconsumedfurtherupstreamIncreasedannualNPPwasoftenbutnotalwaysassociatedwithreducedsea0iceextentandresultantlonger phytoplanktongrowingseason

HumanactivitieshaveincreasedtheatmosphericCO2concentrationbyabout40sincethebeginningoftheindustrialageanditisestimatedthattheoceanhasabsorbedmorethan25

23

ofthetotalanthropogenicemissions(Mathisetal2015)TheoceanicuptakeofCO2triggersaseriesofchemicalreactionsinthesurfaceoceanthatreducespHandresultsinocean acidification(OA)InshortOAmakesseawatercorrosivetocalciumcarbonatemineralswhichmanymarineorganismsrelyonforbodystructuresHigh0latitudeoceanshave naturallylowcarbonateconcentrationssoareconsideredtobemorevulnerabletotheimpactsofOAbecauseadditionalcarbonatelossrepresentsamuchgreaterproportionalchangetothesystemInanovelstudyMathisetalprovideariskassessmentofOAimpacts tocommercialandtraditionalfisheriesfocusedonshellfishsalmonandfinfishTheresultant indexsuggeststhatwhilethenorthernBeringSeaisatmediumriskfromOAimpactsto fisheriesPacificArcticwatersnorthoftheSewardPeninsulaarecurrentlyatlowriskduelargelytoalackofdependenceonthesefoodsources

3)Lower)Trophic)Level)Communities)signals)from)direct)and)indirect)sampling

ThepredominantconceptualmodelframinghowmarineecosystemsinthePacificArctic respondtoreducedseaiceisbasedonchangesanticipatedfromashiftinpelagic0benthic coupling(Fig4)

Figure)4))Generalized)conceptual)model)depicting)the)influence)of)sea)ice)on)pelagicVbenthic)coupling)on) Pacific)Arctic)continental)shelves)

24

OnthebroadshelvesthatcomprisemuchofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemnewprimaryproductionfromsea0icealgaeandphytoplanktonbloomsfallstotheseafloortosupportrich benthiccommunities(Grebmeier2012)Asseaicethinsandretreatsearlierintheseasonitisanticipatedthatearlierandlargerphytoplanktonbloomswillswitchfromabenthic0 dominatedtoapelagic0dominatedmarineecosystemThisshiftwillcascadethroughthesystemsupportingnovelcommunitiesofsecondaryandtertiaryconsumers(zooplanktonandforagefishes)anduppertrophiclevelmarinebirdsandmammalsIndeedGrebmeieret al(2006)suggestedthatthistypeofecosystemshiftisalreadyunderwayinthemarinecommunitiesofthenorthernBeringSeaThePacificArcticisoftendescribedasabenthic0 dominatedmarineecosystemonethatdoesnotsupportalargebiomassorspeciesdiversityoffishesAdescriptionofconditionsthathavefosteredexistingbenthichotspotsoffersa solidfoundationforassessingfuturechangeswhileanaccountingoftheexistingcommunitiesofmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsprovidesastartingpointuponwhichtobuildalong0termrecord)

31Benthichotspotsandmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitats

ArecordofextantconditionsiskeytointerpretingmarineecosystemresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingnowevidentinthePacificArcticSucharecordexistsforfourbenthic lsquohotspotrsquocommunitiesinthenorthernBeringandChukchiseas(Grebmeieretal2015a)but notformarinefishesLong0termsamplingofbenthicmacrofaunalcommunitiesindicatesthatthebenthichotspotshavemaintainedconsistentlyhighbiomassforuptofourdecadesdueto reoccurrenceofseasonallyreliablemoderate0to0highwatercolumnproductioncoupledwithexportofcarbonfromoverlyingwaterstotheseafloorUppertrophiclevelbenthivorestargetpreyaggregationsineachofthehotspotsOverallbottom0upforcingbyhydrography andfoodsupplytothebenthosinfluencespersistenceandcompositionofbenthicpreywhichinturninfluencestheuppertrophiclevelspeciescompositionandseasonaloccurrence Whenconsistentlysampledintandemthesebenthos0benthivoreconnectionscanfacilitate useofUTLspeciesassentinelsofshiftsinpreycompositionandabundance(Mooreetal2014)

Sincethe2000stherehavebeenahostofArcticmarinefishsurveysintheChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasprecipitatedbybothscientificinterestintheimpactsofclimatechangeandcommercialinterestinoilandgasdevelopment(Logerwelletal2015)Resultsfrom thesesurveysprovideanovelopportunitytocompareArcticfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsrangingfromlagoonsandbeachestobenthicandpelagiccontinental shelfwatersAsynthesisofdatafromthesesurveysrevealedmoresimilaritiesthandifferencesinhabitatusebetweenthetwoseasForexamplenearshorehabitatisusedbyallageclassesofforagefishesandisalsoanurseryareaforotherspeciesinboththeChukchiand westernBeaufortseasNotablysomecommercialspeciesmaybeexpandingtheirrangenorthtothesewatersincludingchinooksalmon(Oncorhynchustshawytscha)walleyepollock (Gaduschalcogrammus)andflatfishes(Pleuronectidae)Inadditionasynthesisofinformationonrelativeabundanceandageofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)andsaffroncod

25

(Eleginusgracilis)bothkeypreyspeciesinArcticfoodwebssupportedthedevelopmentoflifehistoryanddistributionmodelsthatwillinformfutureresearchontrophicdynamicsin thePacificArcticsector

32Inferencesofmarineecosystemshiftsfromsealsseabirdsandseaducks

Additionalinformationregardingtheimpactoflsquonewnormalrsquobiophysicalconditionsonlowertrophiclevelspeciescanbeinferredfromshiftsinthedietandbodyconditionofmarine mammalsandbirdsCrawfordetal(2015)comparedthedietandconditionofringedseals(Pusahispida)andbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)harvestedintheAlaskanBeringand Chukchiseasduringhistorical(197501984)andrecent(200302012)periodsTheyfoundthe proportionoffishinthedietofbothspeciesincreasedintherecentreduced0iceperiodcomparedtothehistoricalperiodInadditionringedsealsgrewfasterhadthickerblubber andmaturedtwoyearsearlierBeardedsealshadthickerblubberintherecentperiodbut didnotmanifesttheotherchangesreportedfortheringedsealsAlthoughanumberofthe comparisonswerenotstatisticallysignificanttakentogethertheseobservationssuggestgreaterfishavailabilityintheAlaskanBering0Chukchimarineecosystemsupportinggood bodyconditionintheseals

AsinthesealpaperDivokyetal(2015)parsedalong0termdatasetintorecent(200302012)andhistorical(197501984)periodstocompareoceanographicconditionsnestlingdietandfledgingsuccessatablackguillemot(Cepphusgryllemandtii)breedingcolonyinthewestern BeaufortSeaFrom15Julyto1Septemberseaiceretreatedanaverageof18kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof958kmfromthecolonyduringthehistoricalperiodwhileinthe recentperiodiceretreataveraged98kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof5069kmSeasurfacetemperaturenearthecolonyincreasedby29⁰CbetweenthetwoperiodsWhileArcticcodcomprisedover95ofthepreyprovidedtonestlingsinthehistoricalperiodthis proportiondecreasedtolt5ofthenestlingdietduringmostyearsintherecentperiodwhendemersalsculpin(Cottidae)comprisedthemajorityofthedietTheshiftawayfrom Arcticcodwasassociatedwithafive0foldincreaseintherateofnestlingstarvationand reductionsinnestlinggrowthandfledgingmassConverselyannualadultsurvivalduringthe nonbreedingseason(September0May)showednosignificantdifferencebetweenthetwo periodssuggestingnochangeintheavailabilityofArcticcodorinoverallpreyavailabilityto blackguillemotsintheirBeringSeawinteringarea

IncontrasttoarelianceonpelagicpreyLovvornetal(2015)investigatedpotentialclimate0 relatedlimitstobenthicfeedingbyseaducksalongtheirmigrationcorridorinthenortheasternChukchiSeaKingeiders(Somateriaspectabilis)primarilyeatclams(bivalves) duringmigrationandrecentsamplinghasshownthatdenseclamassemblagesoccuronlyinspecificlocationsalongthemigrationcorridorSeaicecanpreventeidersfromreachingtheseprimefeedingsiteswithsatellitedataforApril‒May(2001‒2013)showingthataccess canvaryfrom0‒100InawarmingandincreasinglyvariableclimateaccesstobenthicfeedingsitesmaybefurthererodedbytheeffectsofwindsonunconsolidatediceThese

26

resultsunderscoretheimportanceofmaintainingarangeofbenthicfeedingareasthroughoutthemigrationcorridortoensurepreyavailabilitytotheeiderseachyear)

4)Upper)Trophic)Level)Species)marine)birds)and)mammals)as)ecosystem)sentinels

Astoppredatorsmarinebirdsandmammalsmustadapttochangesintheirhabitatsresultingfromphysicalforcingandtherebycanserveassentinelstoecosystemshifts(Mooreetal2014MooreandGulland2014)ResponsesofUTLspeciestoalteredhabitatscanbe categorizedasextrinsicincludingshiftsinrangemigratorytiming(phenology)orregionsofhighabundance(hotspots)orintrinsicincludingchangesindietbodyconditionand chemicalcomposition(Fig5)

Figure)5)Marine)birds)and)mammals)are)upper)trophic)level)(UTL))species)that)reflect)ecosystem) alterations)by)changes)in)habitat)use)(extrinsic))and)body)condition)(intrinsic))revealing)fundamental) changes)in)marine)ecosystems)

Responsesareinter0relatedsuchthatashiftinrangephenologyoruseofhotspotswillbe reflectedinchangesindietbodyconditionandchemistryItisthisconnectionthatallowsus

27

todetectecosystemreorganizationbytrackingchangesintheecologyandphysiologyofUTL speciesAlthoughtherehavebeennocoordinatedlong0termstudiesofUTLspeciesinthe PacificArcticexaminingthisconnectionasynthesisofinformationfromvisualsurveyssatellitetaggingofindividualsandyear0roundacousticdetectionsprovidesanecological foundationthatcanprovideabaselinetoinformfutureinvestigations

41Seasonaloccurrencehotspothabitatsandacousticecology

Kuletzetal(2015)depictspatialpatternsofrelativeabundanceofseabirdsandmarinemammalsinsummerandfallderivedfromsixyearsofvisualsurveysintheeasternChukchi andwesternBeaufortseasUsingstatisticalspatialanalysistoolshotspotsforseabirdswalrusandgraywhaleswereidentifiedintheChukchiSeawhilehotspotsforbowheadwhalesandsealsweredescribednearBarrowCanyonandalongtheBeaufortSeashelfand slopeHotspotsforbelugasoccurredinboththeChukchiandBeaufortseasInsummerthreehotspotsweresharedbybothseabirdsandmarinemammalsintheChukchiSeawaters offshoreWainwrightsouthofHannaShoalandatthemouthofBarrowCanyonOnlytheBarrowCanyonhotspotwasoccupiedthroughthefallSharedhotspotswerecharacterized bystrongfrontscausedbyupwellingandcurrentswhichcanservetoaggregatepreyUsingadifferentapproachCittaetal(2015)providedetailedanalysisoftheseasonalmovementsandhabitatusebyasinglespeciesthroughoutoneyearLocationsfrom54bowheadwhales (Balaenamysticetus)obtainedbysatellitetelemetryfrom200602012wereusedtoidentifya totalofsixcore0useareasintheBeaufort(3)Chukchi(1)andnorthernBering(2)seas Takentogetherthetimingofuse(phenology)andphysicalcharacteristics(oceanographyseaiceandwinds)associatedwitheachareadescribeaseasonalcircuitbythewhalesthroughareasthoughttosupportelevatedpreydensities

Passiveacousticsamplinghasbecomeacommonyear0roundtooltodetectcallingmarine mammalsinarcticseas(Mooreetal2006Staffordetal2012)Since2007therehasbeenanespeciallystrongsamplingeffortassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationinthenortheast ChukchiandwesternBeaufortseas(egHannayetal2013 httpwwwafscnoaagovnmmlcetaceanchaozphp)Theserecorderdeployments augmentalong0standingacousticstudyinthecentralBeaufortSea(Blackwelletal2007)andmorerecentdeploymentsintheBeringStraitregion(KStaffordperscomm)HeretoforeresearchersconductedeachofthesestudiesindependentlyofoneanotherClark etal(2015)presentsanovelsynthesisofthecombinedoutputfromsixresearcheffortsusingfourtypesofrecordersandavarietyofsub0samplingandanalysisschemestodescribean lsquoacousticyearrsquointhelifeofthebowheadwhaleDetectionsofbowheadcallsfrom20sitesextendingover2300kmfromthenorthernBeringSeatothesoutheastBeaufortSeawere combinedovera140monthperiod(200902010)todescribewhaleoccurrenceacrosstheir rangeThespatialandtemporalvariabilityinsoundlevelswithinthefrequencybandofbowheadwhaleswasalsoquantifiedThelowestunderwatersoundlevelsoccurredfromlate NovemberuntilMayintheChukchiSeaDuringwinter200902010singingbowheadwhaleselevatedbroadbandsoundlevelsforroughly38daysinthenorthernBeringSeafollowedby

28

asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

29

ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

31

Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

32

(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

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KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

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MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

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MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

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PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

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52

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StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Moore

TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

Mathis

UsinganEnvironmentalIntelligenceFrameworktoEvaluatetheImpactsof

OceanAcidificationintheArctic

ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

26(Jan(2017(

Moore

The

Arc

tic M

arin

e Pu

lses

Mod

el l

inki

ng a

nnua

l oce

anog

raph

ic p

roce

sses

toco

ntig

uous

eco

logi

cal d

omai

ns in

the

Paci

fic A

rctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

24(Jan(2017(

VanPelt

Synt

hesi

s of A

rctic

Res

earc

h (S

OA

R) ndash

Phy

sics

to m

arin

e m

amm

als i

n th

e Pa

cific

Arc

tic P

hase

II

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22(Apr(2017(

Moore

The

Synt

hesi

s of A

rctic

Res

earc

h (S

OA

R) P

rogr

am in

the

Paci

fic A

rctic

Sec

tor

Inte

rnat

iona

l Con

fere

nce

on A

rctic

Scie

nce

Res

ton

VA

(

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(

60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 19: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

JessicaCross FormationandtransportofcorrosivewaterinthePacificArcticRegion

LeeCooper DepositionpatternsontheChukchiShelfusingradionuclide inventoriesinrelationtosurfacesedimentcharacteristics

Matthew Druckenmiller

Trendsinsea0icecoverandupwellingpotentialwithinBowheadwhaleuseareasintheWesternArctic

KateStafford AcousticecologyofbowheadandbelugawhalesincoreuseareasintheBeaufortandChukchiSeas

JohnCitta Oceanographiccharacteristicsassociatedwithbowheadwhale movementsintheChukchiSea

JohnCitta SeasonaldistributionandoverlapofmarinemammalsintheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseas

KimberlyRand UsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

ElizabethLogerwell Environmentaldriversofbenthicfishdistributioninandaround BarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwesternBeaufortSea

KathleenStafford BelugawhalesintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaasynthesisofavailableinformationontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StephenOkkonen Relationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskanBeaufortSea

MartinRobards UnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesintheAlaskanArcticPlace0basedcollaborationswithAlaskaNative communities

SueMoore TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)ModellinkingtemporalprocessestocontiguousdomainsinthePacificArctic

19

PRESENTATIONSANDPOSTERSATSCIENTIFICMEETINGS

SOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandcontributorsmademorethan50presentationsincludinginformationaboutthissynthesiseffortatavarietyofscientificmeetingsworkshopsandwebinarsAfulllistofthesepresentationsisprovidedinAppendixC

OTHERCOMMUNICATIONOFSYNTHESISAPPROACHANDPRODUCTS

TheSynthesisofArcticResearchwebsitelocatedathttpswwwpmelnoaagovsoar providesbackgroundinformationandup0to0datescienceproductinformationtostakeholders andthegeneralpublicThewebsitewillcontinuetobeliveandhostedbyNOAA

Severalpeer0reviewedpaperswerepublishedthatalsoappealtoamoregeneralortrans0 disciplineaudienceincludingSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)andSheffieldGuyetal(2016)SOARsynthesisresultswerefeaturedinnumerousnewspapersonlinefeaturesmagazines andmore

SYNTHESIS)SUMMARY)AND)DISCUSSION)

SOARPHASEI

ThefirstphaseofSOARresultedinfifteenpaperspublishedinaspecialissueofProgressin Oceanographyin2015(Table3)HereweprovideabroadoverviewanddiscussionofthepapersinthatspecialissuedrawnfromtheIntroductiontothatissue(MooreandStabeno 2015)

1 Introduction)

TheinitiationoftheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)projectcoincidedwiththerecognitionthatbiophysicalchangesinthePacificArcticregionweresoextremecomparedtotherecentpastthattheyacquiredthemonikerlsquonewnormalrsquo(Jeffriesetal2013) ConsequentlydescribingthebiophysicalpropertiesofthelsquonewlsquoPacificArcticmarineecosystemwasfoundationaltotheSOAReffortandthefocusoffivepapersinthefirstspecial issueExaminingbiologicalresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingthenbecamethetaskofresearchersfocusedonthestudyoflowertrophiclevel(LTL)communitiesanduppertrophiclevel(UTL)speciesTwopapersprovideintegratedresultsfromdirectsamplingofbenthic andfishcommunitieswhilethreepapersreportonchangesinLTLspeciesoccurrenceinferredbyshiftsinthedietsofsealsandmarinebirdsSixpapersfocusonUTLspecieswith fourpresentinginformationonseasonaloccurrenceinhotspotorcore0usehabitatsandtwo describingvariabilityinmarinemammalbodyconditioninthecontextofdecadal0scale

20

environmentalvariabilityTogetherthesepapersprovideasyntheticcontexttofocushypothesesunderpinningthenextdecadeofresearchinthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

2)Biophysics)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

ThePacificArcticmarineecosystemiscomprisedofinflowshelves(northernBeringandChukchiseas)coupledtointeriorshelves(EastSiberianandBeaufortseas)withthe contrastingbiophysicsofthesedomainssummarizedinCarmacketal(2006)Circulationon bothinflowandinteriorshelvesislinkedtopan0arcticteleconnectionmechanisms(egArcticOscillation)withinteriorshelvesalsostronglyinfluencedbytheseasonaloutflowof relativelywarmfreshwaterfromarcticriversEvaluatingecosystemstatusandtrendsinthePacificArcticwasthefocusofarecentbookwith10(of12)chaptersdevotedtoobservationsandmodelingoftheatmosphereoceanphysicsandchemistry(GrebmeierandMaslowski 2014)Thepapersinthefirstspecialissueaddtothatbodyofknowledgeespeciallywithregardtobiologicalresponsestobiophysicaldriversandinthiswaycontributetoamore holisticunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

21)PhysicalobservationsandopenwaterprojectionsinthelsquonewnormalrsquoPacificArctic

Recentobservations(200302013)ofenvironmentalchangesinthePacificArcticsupportthecontentionthatanewnormalclimateisemerging(Fig3Jeffriesetal2013Woodetal 2015)

Figure)3))Highlights)of)recent)biophysical)changes)in)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

21

Theiconicindicatorofthischangeisthedramaticsummertimelossofseaice(50byarea75byvolume)whichinsomeyears(eg2012)hasresultedinnearlyice0freeconditionsin theregionSpecificallysatellitedatafrom197902012reveallocalizedchangesinsea0ice occurrenceofupto0164daysyearintheCanadaBasinand0124daysyearintheBeaufort Seawhichacceleratedto0657daysyear(CanadaBasin)and01284daysyear(Beaufort Sea)duringthe200002012period(Freyetal2015)Multiyearseaicehasalmostentirelydisappearedwithinter0annualvariabilityiniceconcentrationlargelydrivenbywindforcing intheBeaufortSeaIntheCanadaBasindifferencesinannualseaiceareprimarilythermallydrivenwhilesea0iceextentisinfluencedbybothwindsandheatontheBeringSeashelf

Thesummeratmosphericpatternsinfluenceoceancirculationfreshwaterpathwaysand movementandmeltingofseaiceDuringthelastdecadetheintensificationoftheBeaufortHigh(OgiandWallace2012)resultedinanomaloussummerwindsTheseanomalouswinds togetherwiththelossofmulti0yeariceweretheprimaryfactorsthattransformedtheChukchiandnorthernBeaufortseasintoanopenwaterenvironment(Woodetal2015)InparticulartheeasternBeaufortSeaappearstobeparticularlysusceptibletoanomalouswindsthrough theireffectontheadvectionofwarmfreshwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumeInadditiontransportanomaliesintheBeringStraitaredeterminedbycompetinglarge0scale atmosphericpatternstheBeaufortHighandAleutianLow(Danielsonetal2014)NotablychangesinBeringStraitflowthroughcanimpacttheworldclimatefarbeyondtheBeringStraitandArcticregion(egHuetal2015)

Freyetal(2015)investigatetheinfluenceofthePacificDecadalOscillation(PDO)andtheArcticOscillation(AO)onthepersistenceofseaiceinsummerandwinterTheyfoundsignificantnegativecorrelationsbetweenseaiceonthesoutheasternBeringSeashelfandthe PDOinwinteraswellassignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweentheAOandsea0icecoverjustsouthofStLawrenceIslandSignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweenthePDOandsea iceintheCanadaBasin0CanadianArchipelagowerefoundinsummeraswellasbetweentheAOandseaiceintheChukchi0BeaufortseasThisnovelinvestigationofteleconnections betweenthePDOtheAOandsea0icecoverprovidesacriticalstepinunderstandinghow globalandregionalclimatepatternsinfluencethephysicsofthePacificArcticregion

Theunprecedentedlossofseaicehasresultedinatremendousincreaseinopen0water susceptibletorapidsolarheatingwithadditionalheatandfreshwaterprovidedbya50 increaseinPacificWaterinflowatBeringStraitfrom200102011(Woodgateetal2012 Woodetal2015)TheinfluenceofincreasedheatstoredintheChukchiandBeaufortseasis notwellunderstoodSuggestionsthatheatreleasedtotheatmosphereinlateautumnandwinterdrivesaspectsofmid0latitudeweatherremainspeculativelargelyduetotheshort timerecordavailable(Woodetal2015)FresheningoftheArcticOceanhasbeenoccurring atleastsincethe1990s(egGilesetal2012)Severalexplanationshavebeenproposed includingincreasedsea0icemeltfresherPacificWaterflowingthroughBeringStraitchanges inthemagnitudeofriverdischargeandthemeanstrengtheningoftheBeaufortHighInrecentyearsrelativelystrongeasterlywindshavebeencommonduetotheArctic0wide

22

patternofcirculationaroundanintensifiedBeaufortHighUndertheseconditionsfreshand warmwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumecanbelaterallytransportedfaroutintothe BeaufortSea(Woodetal2015)

WangandOverland(2015)comparedresultsfromtwelvecoupledclimatemodelstoproducecompositeprojectionsofthedurationofopenwaterintheChukchiandBeaufortseasat decadalintervalsfrom201002050andin2090Forwatersnorthofthe70degNopen0water durationshiftsfrom304monthsin2010toaprojected~5monthsby2040Projectedopen0 waterdurationisaboutonemonthlongeralongthesamelatitudesintheChukchiSeacomparedwiththeBeaufortSeawithuncertaintyofaboutplusmn1monthestimatedfromtherangeofmodelresultsAllmodelsprojectedopen0waterdurationtoexpandquicklyoverthe nextthreedecadeswhichwillimpactregionaleconomicaccessandpotentiallyalterecosystemsYetthePacificArcticregionwillremaincoveredwiththinfirst0yearicefrom JanuarythroughMayintothesecondhalfofthecenturyduetoseasonallackofsunlight

22Changesinprimaryproductionandoceanacidification

Thedramaticlossofsea0iceextentandvolumehasresultedinaconcomitantincreaseinlightpenetrationintheupperoceanacrosstheArcticGiventhethinningandarealreductionof seaiceafundamentalquestionariseshavethesechangesfosteredanincreaseinmarineprimaryproductionSpecificallyisthePacificArcticregionmoreproductivethanitwasthreedecadesagoIntheAtlanticArcticLeuetal(2011)measuredprimaryproductionby bothicealgaeandphytoplanktonincontrastingyears(2007008)ofsea0icecoverinaSvalbardfjordandconcludedthatearliericebreakupcorrespondedwithearlieronsetofa phytoplanktonbloomSimilarlyTremblayetal(2012)reportincreasedprimaryproductionfor2007008associatedwithextremesea0iceretreatsandincreasedupwellingatstations locatedsouthandeastofBanksIslandinthesoutheasternBeaufortSeaButcanconclusions drawnfrommeasurementssorestrictedinspaceandtimebeextrapolatedtolargerarcticregionsUsingsatelliteimageryArrigoandvanDijken(2015)investigatedchangesinseaice atbothregionalandbasinscalesfrom199802012andestimatedhowthesechangeshaveimpactedratesofnetprimaryproduction(NPP)byphytoplanktonTheyreportthatannual NPPincreased30duringthisperiodwiththelargestincreasesontheinteriorshelves (includingtheEastSiberianandBeaufort)andsmallerincreasesoninflowshelves(includingtheChukchi)OutflowshelveseitherexhibitednochangeinannualNPPoradeclineperhaps indicatingthatnutrientshadbeenconsumedfurtherupstreamIncreasedannualNPPwasoftenbutnotalwaysassociatedwithreducedsea0iceextentandresultantlonger phytoplanktongrowingseason

HumanactivitieshaveincreasedtheatmosphericCO2concentrationbyabout40sincethebeginningoftheindustrialageanditisestimatedthattheoceanhasabsorbedmorethan25

23

ofthetotalanthropogenicemissions(Mathisetal2015)TheoceanicuptakeofCO2triggersaseriesofchemicalreactionsinthesurfaceoceanthatreducespHandresultsinocean acidification(OA)InshortOAmakesseawatercorrosivetocalciumcarbonatemineralswhichmanymarineorganismsrelyonforbodystructuresHigh0latitudeoceanshave naturallylowcarbonateconcentrationssoareconsideredtobemorevulnerabletotheimpactsofOAbecauseadditionalcarbonatelossrepresentsamuchgreaterproportionalchangetothesystemInanovelstudyMathisetalprovideariskassessmentofOAimpacts tocommercialandtraditionalfisheriesfocusedonshellfishsalmonandfinfishTheresultant indexsuggeststhatwhilethenorthernBeringSeaisatmediumriskfromOAimpactsto fisheriesPacificArcticwatersnorthoftheSewardPeninsulaarecurrentlyatlowriskduelargelytoalackofdependenceonthesefoodsources

3)Lower)Trophic)Level)Communities)signals)from)direct)and)indirect)sampling

ThepredominantconceptualmodelframinghowmarineecosystemsinthePacificArctic respondtoreducedseaiceisbasedonchangesanticipatedfromashiftinpelagic0benthic coupling(Fig4)

Figure)4))Generalized)conceptual)model)depicting)the)influence)of)sea)ice)on)pelagicVbenthic)coupling)on) Pacific)Arctic)continental)shelves)

24

OnthebroadshelvesthatcomprisemuchofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemnewprimaryproductionfromsea0icealgaeandphytoplanktonbloomsfallstotheseafloortosupportrich benthiccommunities(Grebmeier2012)Asseaicethinsandretreatsearlierintheseasonitisanticipatedthatearlierandlargerphytoplanktonbloomswillswitchfromabenthic0 dominatedtoapelagic0dominatedmarineecosystemThisshiftwillcascadethroughthesystemsupportingnovelcommunitiesofsecondaryandtertiaryconsumers(zooplanktonandforagefishes)anduppertrophiclevelmarinebirdsandmammalsIndeedGrebmeieret al(2006)suggestedthatthistypeofecosystemshiftisalreadyunderwayinthemarinecommunitiesofthenorthernBeringSeaThePacificArcticisoftendescribedasabenthic0 dominatedmarineecosystemonethatdoesnotsupportalargebiomassorspeciesdiversityoffishesAdescriptionofconditionsthathavefosteredexistingbenthichotspotsoffersa solidfoundationforassessingfuturechangeswhileanaccountingoftheexistingcommunitiesofmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsprovidesastartingpointuponwhichtobuildalong0termrecord)

31Benthichotspotsandmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitats

ArecordofextantconditionsiskeytointerpretingmarineecosystemresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingnowevidentinthePacificArcticSucharecordexistsforfourbenthic lsquohotspotrsquocommunitiesinthenorthernBeringandChukchiseas(Grebmeieretal2015a)but notformarinefishesLong0termsamplingofbenthicmacrofaunalcommunitiesindicatesthatthebenthichotspotshavemaintainedconsistentlyhighbiomassforuptofourdecadesdueto reoccurrenceofseasonallyreliablemoderate0to0highwatercolumnproductioncoupledwithexportofcarbonfromoverlyingwaterstotheseafloorUppertrophiclevelbenthivorestargetpreyaggregationsineachofthehotspotsOverallbottom0upforcingbyhydrography andfoodsupplytothebenthosinfluencespersistenceandcompositionofbenthicpreywhichinturninfluencestheuppertrophiclevelspeciescompositionandseasonaloccurrence Whenconsistentlysampledintandemthesebenthos0benthivoreconnectionscanfacilitate useofUTLspeciesassentinelsofshiftsinpreycompositionandabundance(Mooreetal2014)

Sincethe2000stherehavebeenahostofArcticmarinefishsurveysintheChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasprecipitatedbybothscientificinterestintheimpactsofclimatechangeandcommercialinterestinoilandgasdevelopment(Logerwelletal2015)Resultsfrom thesesurveysprovideanovelopportunitytocompareArcticfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsrangingfromlagoonsandbeachestobenthicandpelagiccontinental shelfwatersAsynthesisofdatafromthesesurveysrevealedmoresimilaritiesthandifferencesinhabitatusebetweenthetwoseasForexamplenearshorehabitatisusedbyallageclassesofforagefishesandisalsoanurseryareaforotherspeciesinboththeChukchiand westernBeaufortseasNotablysomecommercialspeciesmaybeexpandingtheirrangenorthtothesewatersincludingchinooksalmon(Oncorhynchustshawytscha)walleyepollock (Gaduschalcogrammus)andflatfishes(Pleuronectidae)Inadditionasynthesisofinformationonrelativeabundanceandageofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)andsaffroncod

25

(Eleginusgracilis)bothkeypreyspeciesinArcticfoodwebssupportedthedevelopmentoflifehistoryanddistributionmodelsthatwillinformfutureresearchontrophicdynamicsin thePacificArcticsector

32Inferencesofmarineecosystemshiftsfromsealsseabirdsandseaducks

Additionalinformationregardingtheimpactoflsquonewnormalrsquobiophysicalconditionsonlowertrophiclevelspeciescanbeinferredfromshiftsinthedietandbodyconditionofmarine mammalsandbirdsCrawfordetal(2015)comparedthedietandconditionofringedseals(Pusahispida)andbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)harvestedintheAlaskanBeringand Chukchiseasduringhistorical(197501984)andrecent(200302012)periodsTheyfoundthe proportionoffishinthedietofbothspeciesincreasedintherecentreduced0iceperiodcomparedtothehistoricalperiodInadditionringedsealsgrewfasterhadthickerblubber andmaturedtwoyearsearlierBeardedsealshadthickerblubberintherecentperiodbut didnotmanifesttheotherchangesreportedfortheringedsealsAlthoughanumberofthe comparisonswerenotstatisticallysignificanttakentogethertheseobservationssuggestgreaterfishavailabilityintheAlaskanBering0Chukchimarineecosystemsupportinggood bodyconditionintheseals

AsinthesealpaperDivokyetal(2015)parsedalong0termdatasetintorecent(200302012)andhistorical(197501984)periodstocompareoceanographicconditionsnestlingdietandfledgingsuccessatablackguillemot(Cepphusgryllemandtii)breedingcolonyinthewestern BeaufortSeaFrom15Julyto1Septemberseaiceretreatedanaverageof18kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof958kmfromthecolonyduringthehistoricalperiodwhileinthe recentperiodiceretreataveraged98kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof5069kmSeasurfacetemperaturenearthecolonyincreasedby29⁰CbetweenthetwoperiodsWhileArcticcodcomprisedover95ofthepreyprovidedtonestlingsinthehistoricalperiodthis proportiondecreasedtolt5ofthenestlingdietduringmostyearsintherecentperiodwhendemersalsculpin(Cottidae)comprisedthemajorityofthedietTheshiftawayfrom Arcticcodwasassociatedwithafive0foldincreaseintherateofnestlingstarvationand reductionsinnestlinggrowthandfledgingmassConverselyannualadultsurvivalduringthe nonbreedingseason(September0May)showednosignificantdifferencebetweenthetwo periodssuggestingnochangeintheavailabilityofArcticcodorinoverallpreyavailabilityto blackguillemotsintheirBeringSeawinteringarea

IncontrasttoarelianceonpelagicpreyLovvornetal(2015)investigatedpotentialclimate0 relatedlimitstobenthicfeedingbyseaducksalongtheirmigrationcorridorinthenortheasternChukchiSeaKingeiders(Somateriaspectabilis)primarilyeatclams(bivalves) duringmigrationandrecentsamplinghasshownthatdenseclamassemblagesoccuronlyinspecificlocationsalongthemigrationcorridorSeaicecanpreventeidersfromreachingtheseprimefeedingsiteswithsatellitedataforApril‒May(2001‒2013)showingthataccess canvaryfrom0‒100InawarmingandincreasinglyvariableclimateaccesstobenthicfeedingsitesmaybefurthererodedbytheeffectsofwindsonunconsolidatediceThese

26

resultsunderscoretheimportanceofmaintainingarangeofbenthicfeedingareasthroughoutthemigrationcorridortoensurepreyavailabilitytotheeiderseachyear)

4)Upper)Trophic)Level)Species)marine)birds)and)mammals)as)ecosystem)sentinels

Astoppredatorsmarinebirdsandmammalsmustadapttochangesintheirhabitatsresultingfromphysicalforcingandtherebycanserveassentinelstoecosystemshifts(Mooreetal2014MooreandGulland2014)ResponsesofUTLspeciestoalteredhabitatscanbe categorizedasextrinsicincludingshiftsinrangemigratorytiming(phenology)orregionsofhighabundance(hotspots)orintrinsicincludingchangesindietbodyconditionand chemicalcomposition(Fig5)

Figure)5)Marine)birds)and)mammals)are)upper)trophic)level)(UTL))species)that)reflect)ecosystem) alterations)by)changes)in)habitat)use)(extrinsic))and)body)condition)(intrinsic))revealing)fundamental) changes)in)marine)ecosystems)

Responsesareinter0relatedsuchthatashiftinrangephenologyoruseofhotspotswillbe reflectedinchangesindietbodyconditionandchemistryItisthisconnectionthatallowsus

27

todetectecosystemreorganizationbytrackingchangesintheecologyandphysiologyofUTL speciesAlthoughtherehavebeennocoordinatedlong0termstudiesofUTLspeciesinthe PacificArcticexaminingthisconnectionasynthesisofinformationfromvisualsurveyssatellitetaggingofindividualsandyear0roundacousticdetectionsprovidesanecological foundationthatcanprovideabaselinetoinformfutureinvestigations

41Seasonaloccurrencehotspothabitatsandacousticecology

Kuletzetal(2015)depictspatialpatternsofrelativeabundanceofseabirdsandmarinemammalsinsummerandfallderivedfromsixyearsofvisualsurveysintheeasternChukchi andwesternBeaufortseasUsingstatisticalspatialanalysistoolshotspotsforseabirdswalrusandgraywhaleswereidentifiedintheChukchiSeawhilehotspotsforbowheadwhalesandsealsweredescribednearBarrowCanyonandalongtheBeaufortSeashelfand slopeHotspotsforbelugasoccurredinboththeChukchiandBeaufortseasInsummerthreehotspotsweresharedbybothseabirdsandmarinemammalsintheChukchiSeawaters offshoreWainwrightsouthofHannaShoalandatthemouthofBarrowCanyonOnlytheBarrowCanyonhotspotwasoccupiedthroughthefallSharedhotspotswerecharacterized bystrongfrontscausedbyupwellingandcurrentswhichcanservetoaggregatepreyUsingadifferentapproachCittaetal(2015)providedetailedanalysisoftheseasonalmovementsandhabitatusebyasinglespeciesthroughoutoneyearLocationsfrom54bowheadwhales (Balaenamysticetus)obtainedbysatellitetelemetryfrom200602012wereusedtoidentifya totalofsixcore0useareasintheBeaufort(3)Chukchi(1)andnorthernBering(2)seas Takentogetherthetimingofuse(phenology)andphysicalcharacteristics(oceanographyseaiceandwinds)associatedwitheachareadescribeaseasonalcircuitbythewhalesthroughareasthoughttosupportelevatedpreydensities

Passiveacousticsamplinghasbecomeacommonyear0roundtooltodetectcallingmarine mammalsinarcticseas(Mooreetal2006Staffordetal2012)Since2007therehasbeenanespeciallystrongsamplingeffortassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationinthenortheast ChukchiandwesternBeaufortseas(egHannayetal2013 httpwwwafscnoaagovnmmlcetaceanchaozphp)Theserecorderdeployments augmentalong0standingacousticstudyinthecentralBeaufortSea(Blackwelletal2007)andmorerecentdeploymentsintheBeringStraitregion(KStaffordperscomm)HeretoforeresearchersconductedeachofthesestudiesindependentlyofoneanotherClark etal(2015)presentsanovelsynthesisofthecombinedoutputfromsixresearcheffortsusingfourtypesofrecordersandavarietyofsub0samplingandanalysisschemestodescribean lsquoacousticyearrsquointhelifeofthebowheadwhaleDetectionsofbowheadcallsfrom20sitesextendingover2300kmfromthenorthernBeringSeatothesoutheastBeaufortSeawere combinedovera140monthperiod(200902010)todescribewhaleoccurrenceacrosstheir rangeThespatialandtemporalvariabilityinsoundlevelswithinthefrequencybandofbowheadwhaleswasalsoquantifiedThelowestunderwatersoundlevelsoccurredfromlate NovemberuntilMayintheChukchiSeaDuringwinter200902010singingbowheadwhaleselevatedbroadbandsoundlevelsforroughly38daysinthenorthernBeringSeafollowedby

28

asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

29

ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

31

Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

32

(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

preferenceandbehaviorinthenortheasternChukchiSea1982084RepIntWhale Commn362730279

MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Moore

TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

Mathis

UsinganEnvironmentalIntelligenceFrameworktoEvaluatetheImpactsof

OceanAcidificationintheArctic

ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

26(Jan(2017(

Moore

The

Arc

tic M

arin

e Pu

lses

Mod

el l

inki

ng a

nnua

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roce

sses

toco

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omai

ns in

the

Paci

fic A

rctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

24(Jan(2017(

VanPelt

Synt

hesi

s of A

rctic

Res

earc

h (S

OA

R) ndash

Phy

sics

to m

arin

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22(Apr(2017(

Moore

The

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 20: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

PRESENTATIONSANDPOSTERSATSCIENTIFICMEETINGS

SOARPrincipalInvestigatorsandcontributorsmademorethan50presentationsincludinginformationaboutthissynthesiseffortatavarietyofscientificmeetingsworkshopsandwebinarsAfulllistofthesepresentationsisprovidedinAppendixC

OTHERCOMMUNICATIONOFSYNTHESISAPPROACHANDPRODUCTS

TheSynthesisofArcticResearchwebsitelocatedathttpswwwpmelnoaagovsoar providesbackgroundinformationandup0to0datescienceproductinformationtostakeholders andthegeneralpublicThewebsitewillcontinuetobeliveandhostedbyNOAA

Severalpeer0reviewedpaperswerepublishedthatalsoappealtoamoregeneralortrans0 disciplineaudienceincludingSheffieldGuyetal(2012b)andSheffieldGuyetal(2016)SOARsynthesisresultswerefeaturedinnumerousnewspapersonlinefeaturesmagazines andmore

SYNTHESIS)SUMMARY)AND)DISCUSSION)

SOARPHASEI

ThefirstphaseofSOARresultedinfifteenpaperspublishedinaspecialissueofProgressin Oceanographyin2015(Table3)HereweprovideabroadoverviewanddiscussionofthepapersinthatspecialissuedrawnfromtheIntroductiontothatissue(MooreandStabeno 2015)

1 Introduction)

TheinitiationoftheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)projectcoincidedwiththerecognitionthatbiophysicalchangesinthePacificArcticregionweresoextremecomparedtotherecentpastthattheyacquiredthemonikerlsquonewnormalrsquo(Jeffriesetal2013) ConsequentlydescribingthebiophysicalpropertiesofthelsquonewlsquoPacificArcticmarineecosystemwasfoundationaltotheSOAReffortandthefocusoffivepapersinthefirstspecial issueExaminingbiologicalresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingthenbecamethetaskofresearchersfocusedonthestudyoflowertrophiclevel(LTL)communitiesanduppertrophiclevel(UTL)speciesTwopapersprovideintegratedresultsfromdirectsamplingofbenthic andfishcommunitieswhilethreepapersreportonchangesinLTLspeciesoccurrenceinferredbyshiftsinthedietsofsealsandmarinebirdsSixpapersfocusonUTLspecieswith fourpresentinginformationonseasonaloccurrenceinhotspotorcore0usehabitatsandtwo describingvariabilityinmarinemammalbodyconditioninthecontextofdecadal0scale

20

environmentalvariabilityTogetherthesepapersprovideasyntheticcontexttofocushypothesesunderpinningthenextdecadeofresearchinthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

2)Biophysics)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

ThePacificArcticmarineecosystemiscomprisedofinflowshelves(northernBeringandChukchiseas)coupledtointeriorshelves(EastSiberianandBeaufortseas)withthe contrastingbiophysicsofthesedomainssummarizedinCarmacketal(2006)Circulationon bothinflowandinteriorshelvesislinkedtopan0arcticteleconnectionmechanisms(egArcticOscillation)withinteriorshelvesalsostronglyinfluencedbytheseasonaloutflowof relativelywarmfreshwaterfromarcticriversEvaluatingecosystemstatusandtrendsinthePacificArcticwasthefocusofarecentbookwith10(of12)chaptersdevotedtoobservationsandmodelingoftheatmosphereoceanphysicsandchemistry(GrebmeierandMaslowski 2014)Thepapersinthefirstspecialissueaddtothatbodyofknowledgeespeciallywithregardtobiologicalresponsestobiophysicaldriversandinthiswaycontributetoamore holisticunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

21)PhysicalobservationsandopenwaterprojectionsinthelsquonewnormalrsquoPacificArctic

Recentobservations(200302013)ofenvironmentalchangesinthePacificArcticsupportthecontentionthatanewnormalclimateisemerging(Fig3Jeffriesetal2013Woodetal 2015)

Figure)3))Highlights)of)recent)biophysical)changes)in)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

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Theiconicindicatorofthischangeisthedramaticsummertimelossofseaice(50byarea75byvolume)whichinsomeyears(eg2012)hasresultedinnearlyice0freeconditionsin theregionSpecificallysatellitedatafrom197902012reveallocalizedchangesinsea0ice occurrenceofupto0164daysyearintheCanadaBasinand0124daysyearintheBeaufort Seawhichacceleratedto0657daysyear(CanadaBasin)and01284daysyear(Beaufort Sea)duringthe200002012period(Freyetal2015)Multiyearseaicehasalmostentirelydisappearedwithinter0annualvariabilityiniceconcentrationlargelydrivenbywindforcing intheBeaufortSeaIntheCanadaBasindifferencesinannualseaiceareprimarilythermallydrivenwhilesea0iceextentisinfluencedbybothwindsandheatontheBeringSeashelf

Thesummeratmosphericpatternsinfluenceoceancirculationfreshwaterpathwaysand movementandmeltingofseaiceDuringthelastdecadetheintensificationoftheBeaufortHigh(OgiandWallace2012)resultedinanomaloussummerwindsTheseanomalouswinds togetherwiththelossofmulti0yeariceweretheprimaryfactorsthattransformedtheChukchiandnorthernBeaufortseasintoanopenwaterenvironment(Woodetal2015)InparticulartheeasternBeaufortSeaappearstobeparticularlysusceptibletoanomalouswindsthrough theireffectontheadvectionofwarmfreshwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumeInadditiontransportanomaliesintheBeringStraitaredeterminedbycompetinglarge0scale atmosphericpatternstheBeaufortHighandAleutianLow(Danielsonetal2014)NotablychangesinBeringStraitflowthroughcanimpacttheworldclimatefarbeyondtheBeringStraitandArcticregion(egHuetal2015)

Freyetal(2015)investigatetheinfluenceofthePacificDecadalOscillation(PDO)andtheArcticOscillation(AO)onthepersistenceofseaiceinsummerandwinterTheyfoundsignificantnegativecorrelationsbetweenseaiceonthesoutheasternBeringSeashelfandthe PDOinwinteraswellassignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweentheAOandsea0icecoverjustsouthofStLawrenceIslandSignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweenthePDOandsea iceintheCanadaBasin0CanadianArchipelagowerefoundinsummeraswellasbetweentheAOandseaiceintheChukchi0BeaufortseasThisnovelinvestigationofteleconnections betweenthePDOtheAOandsea0icecoverprovidesacriticalstepinunderstandinghow globalandregionalclimatepatternsinfluencethephysicsofthePacificArcticregion

Theunprecedentedlossofseaicehasresultedinatremendousincreaseinopen0water susceptibletorapidsolarheatingwithadditionalheatandfreshwaterprovidedbya50 increaseinPacificWaterinflowatBeringStraitfrom200102011(Woodgateetal2012 Woodetal2015)TheinfluenceofincreasedheatstoredintheChukchiandBeaufortseasis notwellunderstoodSuggestionsthatheatreleasedtotheatmosphereinlateautumnandwinterdrivesaspectsofmid0latitudeweatherremainspeculativelargelyduetotheshort timerecordavailable(Woodetal2015)FresheningoftheArcticOceanhasbeenoccurring atleastsincethe1990s(egGilesetal2012)Severalexplanationshavebeenproposed includingincreasedsea0icemeltfresherPacificWaterflowingthroughBeringStraitchanges inthemagnitudeofriverdischargeandthemeanstrengtheningoftheBeaufortHighInrecentyearsrelativelystrongeasterlywindshavebeencommonduetotheArctic0wide

22

patternofcirculationaroundanintensifiedBeaufortHighUndertheseconditionsfreshand warmwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumecanbelaterallytransportedfaroutintothe BeaufortSea(Woodetal2015)

WangandOverland(2015)comparedresultsfromtwelvecoupledclimatemodelstoproducecompositeprojectionsofthedurationofopenwaterintheChukchiandBeaufortseasat decadalintervalsfrom201002050andin2090Forwatersnorthofthe70degNopen0water durationshiftsfrom304monthsin2010toaprojected~5monthsby2040Projectedopen0 waterdurationisaboutonemonthlongeralongthesamelatitudesintheChukchiSeacomparedwiththeBeaufortSeawithuncertaintyofaboutplusmn1monthestimatedfromtherangeofmodelresultsAllmodelsprojectedopen0waterdurationtoexpandquicklyoverthe nextthreedecadeswhichwillimpactregionaleconomicaccessandpotentiallyalterecosystemsYetthePacificArcticregionwillremaincoveredwiththinfirst0yearicefrom JanuarythroughMayintothesecondhalfofthecenturyduetoseasonallackofsunlight

22Changesinprimaryproductionandoceanacidification

Thedramaticlossofsea0iceextentandvolumehasresultedinaconcomitantincreaseinlightpenetrationintheupperoceanacrosstheArcticGiventhethinningandarealreductionof seaiceafundamentalquestionariseshavethesechangesfosteredanincreaseinmarineprimaryproductionSpecificallyisthePacificArcticregionmoreproductivethanitwasthreedecadesagoIntheAtlanticArcticLeuetal(2011)measuredprimaryproductionby bothicealgaeandphytoplanktonincontrastingyears(2007008)ofsea0icecoverinaSvalbardfjordandconcludedthatearliericebreakupcorrespondedwithearlieronsetofa phytoplanktonbloomSimilarlyTremblayetal(2012)reportincreasedprimaryproductionfor2007008associatedwithextremesea0iceretreatsandincreasedupwellingatstations locatedsouthandeastofBanksIslandinthesoutheasternBeaufortSeaButcanconclusions drawnfrommeasurementssorestrictedinspaceandtimebeextrapolatedtolargerarcticregionsUsingsatelliteimageryArrigoandvanDijken(2015)investigatedchangesinseaice atbothregionalandbasinscalesfrom199802012andestimatedhowthesechangeshaveimpactedratesofnetprimaryproduction(NPP)byphytoplanktonTheyreportthatannual NPPincreased30duringthisperiodwiththelargestincreasesontheinteriorshelves (includingtheEastSiberianandBeaufort)andsmallerincreasesoninflowshelves(includingtheChukchi)OutflowshelveseitherexhibitednochangeinannualNPPoradeclineperhaps indicatingthatnutrientshadbeenconsumedfurtherupstreamIncreasedannualNPPwasoftenbutnotalwaysassociatedwithreducedsea0iceextentandresultantlonger phytoplanktongrowingseason

HumanactivitieshaveincreasedtheatmosphericCO2concentrationbyabout40sincethebeginningoftheindustrialageanditisestimatedthattheoceanhasabsorbedmorethan25

23

ofthetotalanthropogenicemissions(Mathisetal2015)TheoceanicuptakeofCO2triggersaseriesofchemicalreactionsinthesurfaceoceanthatreducespHandresultsinocean acidification(OA)InshortOAmakesseawatercorrosivetocalciumcarbonatemineralswhichmanymarineorganismsrelyonforbodystructuresHigh0latitudeoceanshave naturallylowcarbonateconcentrationssoareconsideredtobemorevulnerabletotheimpactsofOAbecauseadditionalcarbonatelossrepresentsamuchgreaterproportionalchangetothesystemInanovelstudyMathisetalprovideariskassessmentofOAimpacts tocommercialandtraditionalfisheriesfocusedonshellfishsalmonandfinfishTheresultant indexsuggeststhatwhilethenorthernBeringSeaisatmediumriskfromOAimpactsto fisheriesPacificArcticwatersnorthoftheSewardPeninsulaarecurrentlyatlowriskduelargelytoalackofdependenceonthesefoodsources

3)Lower)Trophic)Level)Communities)signals)from)direct)and)indirect)sampling

ThepredominantconceptualmodelframinghowmarineecosystemsinthePacificArctic respondtoreducedseaiceisbasedonchangesanticipatedfromashiftinpelagic0benthic coupling(Fig4)

Figure)4))Generalized)conceptual)model)depicting)the)influence)of)sea)ice)on)pelagicVbenthic)coupling)on) Pacific)Arctic)continental)shelves)

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OnthebroadshelvesthatcomprisemuchofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemnewprimaryproductionfromsea0icealgaeandphytoplanktonbloomsfallstotheseafloortosupportrich benthiccommunities(Grebmeier2012)Asseaicethinsandretreatsearlierintheseasonitisanticipatedthatearlierandlargerphytoplanktonbloomswillswitchfromabenthic0 dominatedtoapelagic0dominatedmarineecosystemThisshiftwillcascadethroughthesystemsupportingnovelcommunitiesofsecondaryandtertiaryconsumers(zooplanktonandforagefishes)anduppertrophiclevelmarinebirdsandmammalsIndeedGrebmeieret al(2006)suggestedthatthistypeofecosystemshiftisalreadyunderwayinthemarinecommunitiesofthenorthernBeringSeaThePacificArcticisoftendescribedasabenthic0 dominatedmarineecosystemonethatdoesnotsupportalargebiomassorspeciesdiversityoffishesAdescriptionofconditionsthathavefosteredexistingbenthichotspotsoffersa solidfoundationforassessingfuturechangeswhileanaccountingoftheexistingcommunitiesofmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsprovidesastartingpointuponwhichtobuildalong0termrecord)

31Benthichotspotsandmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitats

ArecordofextantconditionsiskeytointerpretingmarineecosystemresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingnowevidentinthePacificArcticSucharecordexistsforfourbenthic lsquohotspotrsquocommunitiesinthenorthernBeringandChukchiseas(Grebmeieretal2015a)but notformarinefishesLong0termsamplingofbenthicmacrofaunalcommunitiesindicatesthatthebenthichotspotshavemaintainedconsistentlyhighbiomassforuptofourdecadesdueto reoccurrenceofseasonallyreliablemoderate0to0highwatercolumnproductioncoupledwithexportofcarbonfromoverlyingwaterstotheseafloorUppertrophiclevelbenthivorestargetpreyaggregationsineachofthehotspotsOverallbottom0upforcingbyhydrography andfoodsupplytothebenthosinfluencespersistenceandcompositionofbenthicpreywhichinturninfluencestheuppertrophiclevelspeciescompositionandseasonaloccurrence Whenconsistentlysampledintandemthesebenthos0benthivoreconnectionscanfacilitate useofUTLspeciesassentinelsofshiftsinpreycompositionandabundance(Mooreetal2014)

Sincethe2000stherehavebeenahostofArcticmarinefishsurveysintheChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasprecipitatedbybothscientificinterestintheimpactsofclimatechangeandcommercialinterestinoilandgasdevelopment(Logerwelletal2015)Resultsfrom thesesurveysprovideanovelopportunitytocompareArcticfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsrangingfromlagoonsandbeachestobenthicandpelagiccontinental shelfwatersAsynthesisofdatafromthesesurveysrevealedmoresimilaritiesthandifferencesinhabitatusebetweenthetwoseasForexamplenearshorehabitatisusedbyallageclassesofforagefishesandisalsoanurseryareaforotherspeciesinboththeChukchiand westernBeaufortseasNotablysomecommercialspeciesmaybeexpandingtheirrangenorthtothesewatersincludingchinooksalmon(Oncorhynchustshawytscha)walleyepollock (Gaduschalcogrammus)andflatfishes(Pleuronectidae)Inadditionasynthesisofinformationonrelativeabundanceandageofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)andsaffroncod

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(Eleginusgracilis)bothkeypreyspeciesinArcticfoodwebssupportedthedevelopmentoflifehistoryanddistributionmodelsthatwillinformfutureresearchontrophicdynamicsin thePacificArcticsector

32Inferencesofmarineecosystemshiftsfromsealsseabirdsandseaducks

Additionalinformationregardingtheimpactoflsquonewnormalrsquobiophysicalconditionsonlowertrophiclevelspeciescanbeinferredfromshiftsinthedietandbodyconditionofmarine mammalsandbirdsCrawfordetal(2015)comparedthedietandconditionofringedseals(Pusahispida)andbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)harvestedintheAlaskanBeringand Chukchiseasduringhistorical(197501984)andrecent(200302012)periodsTheyfoundthe proportionoffishinthedietofbothspeciesincreasedintherecentreduced0iceperiodcomparedtothehistoricalperiodInadditionringedsealsgrewfasterhadthickerblubber andmaturedtwoyearsearlierBeardedsealshadthickerblubberintherecentperiodbut didnotmanifesttheotherchangesreportedfortheringedsealsAlthoughanumberofthe comparisonswerenotstatisticallysignificanttakentogethertheseobservationssuggestgreaterfishavailabilityintheAlaskanBering0Chukchimarineecosystemsupportinggood bodyconditionintheseals

AsinthesealpaperDivokyetal(2015)parsedalong0termdatasetintorecent(200302012)andhistorical(197501984)periodstocompareoceanographicconditionsnestlingdietandfledgingsuccessatablackguillemot(Cepphusgryllemandtii)breedingcolonyinthewestern BeaufortSeaFrom15Julyto1Septemberseaiceretreatedanaverageof18kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof958kmfromthecolonyduringthehistoricalperiodwhileinthe recentperiodiceretreataveraged98kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof5069kmSeasurfacetemperaturenearthecolonyincreasedby29⁰CbetweenthetwoperiodsWhileArcticcodcomprisedover95ofthepreyprovidedtonestlingsinthehistoricalperiodthis proportiondecreasedtolt5ofthenestlingdietduringmostyearsintherecentperiodwhendemersalsculpin(Cottidae)comprisedthemajorityofthedietTheshiftawayfrom Arcticcodwasassociatedwithafive0foldincreaseintherateofnestlingstarvationand reductionsinnestlinggrowthandfledgingmassConverselyannualadultsurvivalduringthe nonbreedingseason(September0May)showednosignificantdifferencebetweenthetwo periodssuggestingnochangeintheavailabilityofArcticcodorinoverallpreyavailabilityto blackguillemotsintheirBeringSeawinteringarea

IncontrasttoarelianceonpelagicpreyLovvornetal(2015)investigatedpotentialclimate0 relatedlimitstobenthicfeedingbyseaducksalongtheirmigrationcorridorinthenortheasternChukchiSeaKingeiders(Somateriaspectabilis)primarilyeatclams(bivalves) duringmigrationandrecentsamplinghasshownthatdenseclamassemblagesoccuronlyinspecificlocationsalongthemigrationcorridorSeaicecanpreventeidersfromreachingtheseprimefeedingsiteswithsatellitedataforApril‒May(2001‒2013)showingthataccess canvaryfrom0‒100InawarmingandincreasinglyvariableclimateaccesstobenthicfeedingsitesmaybefurthererodedbytheeffectsofwindsonunconsolidatediceThese

26

resultsunderscoretheimportanceofmaintainingarangeofbenthicfeedingareasthroughoutthemigrationcorridortoensurepreyavailabilitytotheeiderseachyear)

4)Upper)Trophic)Level)Species)marine)birds)and)mammals)as)ecosystem)sentinels

Astoppredatorsmarinebirdsandmammalsmustadapttochangesintheirhabitatsresultingfromphysicalforcingandtherebycanserveassentinelstoecosystemshifts(Mooreetal2014MooreandGulland2014)ResponsesofUTLspeciestoalteredhabitatscanbe categorizedasextrinsicincludingshiftsinrangemigratorytiming(phenology)orregionsofhighabundance(hotspots)orintrinsicincludingchangesindietbodyconditionand chemicalcomposition(Fig5)

Figure)5)Marine)birds)and)mammals)are)upper)trophic)level)(UTL))species)that)reflect)ecosystem) alterations)by)changes)in)habitat)use)(extrinsic))and)body)condition)(intrinsic))revealing)fundamental) changes)in)marine)ecosystems)

Responsesareinter0relatedsuchthatashiftinrangephenologyoruseofhotspotswillbe reflectedinchangesindietbodyconditionandchemistryItisthisconnectionthatallowsus

27

todetectecosystemreorganizationbytrackingchangesintheecologyandphysiologyofUTL speciesAlthoughtherehavebeennocoordinatedlong0termstudiesofUTLspeciesinthe PacificArcticexaminingthisconnectionasynthesisofinformationfromvisualsurveyssatellitetaggingofindividualsandyear0roundacousticdetectionsprovidesanecological foundationthatcanprovideabaselinetoinformfutureinvestigations

41Seasonaloccurrencehotspothabitatsandacousticecology

Kuletzetal(2015)depictspatialpatternsofrelativeabundanceofseabirdsandmarinemammalsinsummerandfallderivedfromsixyearsofvisualsurveysintheeasternChukchi andwesternBeaufortseasUsingstatisticalspatialanalysistoolshotspotsforseabirdswalrusandgraywhaleswereidentifiedintheChukchiSeawhilehotspotsforbowheadwhalesandsealsweredescribednearBarrowCanyonandalongtheBeaufortSeashelfand slopeHotspotsforbelugasoccurredinboththeChukchiandBeaufortseasInsummerthreehotspotsweresharedbybothseabirdsandmarinemammalsintheChukchiSeawaters offshoreWainwrightsouthofHannaShoalandatthemouthofBarrowCanyonOnlytheBarrowCanyonhotspotwasoccupiedthroughthefallSharedhotspotswerecharacterized bystrongfrontscausedbyupwellingandcurrentswhichcanservetoaggregatepreyUsingadifferentapproachCittaetal(2015)providedetailedanalysisoftheseasonalmovementsandhabitatusebyasinglespeciesthroughoutoneyearLocationsfrom54bowheadwhales (Balaenamysticetus)obtainedbysatellitetelemetryfrom200602012wereusedtoidentifya totalofsixcore0useareasintheBeaufort(3)Chukchi(1)andnorthernBering(2)seas Takentogetherthetimingofuse(phenology)andphysicalcharacteristics(oceanographyseaiceandwinds)associatedwitheachareadescribeaseasonalcircuitbythewhalesthroughareasthoughttosupportelevatedpreydensities

Passiveacousticsamplinghasbecomeacommonyear0roundtooltodetectcallingmarine mammalsinarcticseas(Mooreetal2006Staffordetal2012)Since2007therehasbeenanespeciallystrongsamplingeffortassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationinthenortheast ChukchiandwesternBeaufortseas(egHannayetal2013 httpwwwafscnoaagovnmmlcetaceanchaozphp)Theserecorderdeployments augmentalong0standingacousticstudyinthecentralBeaufortSea(Blackwelletal2007)andmorerecentdeploymentsintheBeringStraitregion(KStaffordperscomm)HeretoforeresearchersconductedeachofthesestudiesindependentlyofoneanotherClark etal(2015)presentsanovelsynthesisofthecombinedoutputfromsixresearcheffortsusingfourtypesofrecordersandavarietyofsub0samplingandanalysisschemestodescribean lsquoacousticyearrsquointhelifeofthebowheadwhaleDetectionsofbowheadcallsfrom20sitesextendingover2300kmfromthenorthernBeringSeatothesoutheastBeaufortSeawere combinedovera140monthperiod(200902010)todescribewhaleoccurrenceacrosstheir rangeThespatialandtemporalvariabilityinsoundlevelswithinthefrequencybandofbowheadwhaleswasalsoquantifiedThelowestunderwatersoundlevelsoccurredfromlate NovemberuntilMayintheChukchiSeaDuringwinter200902010singingbowheadwhaleselevatedbroadbandsoundlevelsforroughly38daysinthenorthernBeringSeafollowedby

28

asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

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ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

31

Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

32

(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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47

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GeorgeJCBadaJZehJScottLBrownSEOharaTampSuydamR1999Ageandgrowthestimatesofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)viaasparticacid racemizationCanadianJournalofZoology775710580

GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgress inOceanography1362500262

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GrebmeierJMMooreSE Overland JEFrey KEandGradinger R2010BiologicalresponsetorecentPacificArcticseaiceretreatsEOS91(18)1610168

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HillVArdynaMLeeSHVarelaDEinpressDecadaltrendsinphytoplankton productioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

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MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

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SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

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Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
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Page 21: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

environmentalvariabilityTogetherthesepapersprovideasyntheticcontexttofocushypothesesunderpinningthenextdecadeofresearchinthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

2)Biophysics)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

ThePacificArcticmarineecosystemiscomprisedofinflowshelves(northernBeringandChukchiseas)coupledtointeriorshelves(EastSiberianandBeaufortseas)withthe contrastingbiophysicsofthesedomainssummarizedinCarmacketal(2006)Circulationon bothinflowandinteriorshelvesislinkedtopan0arcticteleconnectionmechanisms(egArcticOscillation)withinteriorshelvesalsostronglyinfluencedbytheseasonaloutflowof relativelywarmfreshwaterfromarcticriversEvaluatingecosystemstatusandtrendsinthePacificArcticwasthefocusofarecentbookwith10(of12)chaptersdevotedtoobservationsandmodelingoftheatmosphereoceanphysicsandchemistry(GrebmeierandMaslowski 2014)Thepapersinthefirstspecialissueaddtothatbodyofknowledgeespeciallywithregardtobiologicalresponsestobiophysicaldriversandinthiswaycontributetoamore holisticunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

21)PhysicalobservationsandopenwaterprojectionsinthelsquonewnormalrsquoPacificArctic

Recentobservations(200302013)ofenvironmentalchangesinthePacificArcticsupportthecontentionthatanewnormalclimateisemerging(Fig3Jeffriesetal2013Woodetal 2015)

Figure)3))Highlights)of)recent)biophysical)changes)in)the)Pacific)Arctic)marine)ecosystem)

21

Theiconicindicatorofthischangeisthedramaticsummertimelossofseaice(50byarea75byvolume)whichinsomeyears(eg2012)hasresultedinnearlyice0freeconditionsin theregionSpecificallysatellitedatafrom197902012reveallocalizedchangesinsea0ice occurrenceofupto0164daysyearintheCanadaBasinand0124daysyearintheBeaufort Seawhichacceleratedto0657daysyear(CanadaBasin)and01284daysyear(Beaufort Sea)duringthe200002012period(Freyetal2015)Multiyearseaicehasalmostentirelydisappearedwithinter0annualvariabilityiniceconcentrationlargelydrivenbywindforcing intheBeaufortSeaIntheCanadaBasindifferencesinannualseaiceareprimarilythermallydrivenwhilesea0iceextentisinfluencedbybothwindsandheatontheBeringSeashelf

Thesummeratmosphericpatternsinfluenceoceancirculationfreshwaterpathwaysand movementandmeltingofseaiceDuringthelastdecadetheintensificationoftheBeaufortHigh(OgiandWallace2012)resultedinanomaloussummerwindsTheseanomalouswinds togetherwiththelossofmulti0yeariceweretheprimaryfactorsthattransformedtheChukchiandnorthernBeaufortseasintoanopenwaterenvironment(Woodetal2015)InparticulartheeasternBeaufortSeaappearstobeparticularlysusceptibletoanomalouswindsthrough theireffectontheadvectionofwarmfreshwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumeInadditiontransportanomaliesintheBeringStraitaredeterminedbycompetinglarge0scale atmosphericpatternstheBeaufortHighandAleutianLow(Danielsonetal2014)NotablychangesinBeringStraitflowthroughcanimpacttheworldclimatefarbeyondtheBeringStraitandArcticregion(egHuetal2015)

Freyetal(2015)investigatetheinfluenceofthePacificDecadalOscillation(PDO)andtheArcticOscillation(AO)onthepersistenceofseaiceinsummerandwinterTheyfoundsignificantnegativecorrelationsbetweenseaiceonthesoutheasternBeringSeashelfandthe PDOinwinteraswellassignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweentheAOandsea0icecoverjustsouthofStLawrenceIslandSignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweenthePDOandsea iceintheCanadaBasin0CanadianArchipelagowerefoundinsummeraswellasbetweentheAOandseaiceintheChukchi0BeaufortseasThisnovelinvestigationofteleconnections betweenthePDOtheAOandsea0icecoverprovidesacriticalstepinunderstandinghow globalandregionalclimatepatternsinfluencethephysicsofthePacificArcticregion

Theunprecedentedlossofseaicehasresultedinatremendousincreaseinopen0water susceptibletorapidsolarheatingwithadditionalheatandfreshwaterprovidedbya50 increaseinPacificWaterinflowatBeringStraitfrom200102011(Woodgateetal2012 Woodetal2015)TheinfluenceofincreasedheatstoredintheChukchiandBeaufortseasis notwellunderstoodSuggestionsthatheatreleasedtotheatmosphereinlateautumnandwinterdrivesaspectsofmid0latitudeweatherremainspeculativelargelyduetotheshort timerecordavailable(Woodetal2015)FresheningoftheArcticOceanhasbeenoccurring atleastsincethe1990s(egGilesetal2012)Severalexplanationshavebeenproposed includingincreasedsea0icemeltfresherPacificWaterflowingthroughBeringStraitchanges inthemagnitudeofriverdischargeandthemeanstrengtheningoftheBeaufortHighInrecentyearsrelativelystrongeasterlywindshavebeencommonduetotheArctic0wide

22

patternofcirculationaroundanintensifiedBeaufortHighUndertheseconditionsfreshand warmwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumecanbelaterallytransportedfaroutintothe BeaufortSea(Woodetal2015)

WangandOverland(2015)comparedresultsfromtwelvecoupledclimatemodelstoproducecompositeprojectionsofthedurationofopenwaterintheChukchiandBeaufortseasat decadalintervalsfrom201002050andin2090Forwatersnorthofthe70degNopen0water durationshiftsfrom304monthsin2010toaprojected~5monthsby2040Projectedopen0 waterdurationisaboutonemonthlongeralongthesamelatitudesintheChukchiSeacomparedwiththeBeaufortSeawithuncertaintyofaboutplusmn1monthestimatedfromtherangeofmodelresultsAllmodelsprojectedopen0waterdurationtoexpandquicklyoverthe nextthreedecadeswhichwillimpactregionaleconomicaccessandpotentiallyalterecosystemsYetthePacificArcticregionwillremaincoveredwiththinfirst0yearicefrom JanuarythroughMayintothesecondhalfofthecenturyduetoseasonallackofsunlight

22Changesinprimaryproductionandoceanacidification

Thedramaticlossofsea0iceextentandvolumehasresultedinaconcomitantincreaseinlightpenetrationintheupperoceanacrosstheArcticGiventhethinningandarealreductionof seaiceafundamentalquestionariseshavethesechangesfosteredanincreaseinmarineprimaryproductionSpecificallyisthePacificArcticregionmoreproductivethanitwasthreedecadesagoIntheAtlanticArcticLeuetal(2011)measuredprimaryproductionby bothicealgaeandphytoplanktonincontrastingyears(2007008)ofsea0icecoverinaSvalbardfjordandconcludedthatearliericebreakupcorrespondedwithearlieronsetofa phytoplanktonbloomSimilarlyTremblayetal(2012)reportincreasedprimaryproductionfor2007008associatedwithextremesea0iceretreatsandincreasedupwellingatstations locatedsouthandeastofBanksIslandinthesoutheasternBeaufortSeaButcanconclusions drawnfrommeasurementssorestrictedinspaceandtimebeextrapolatedtolargerarcticregionsUsingsatelliteimageryArrigoandvanDijken(2015)investigatedchangesinseaice atbothregionalandbasinscalesfrom199802012andestimatedhowthesechangeshaveimpactedratesofnetprimaryproduction(NPP)byphytoplanktonTheyreportthatannual NPPincreased30duringthisperiodwiththelargestincreasesontheinteriorshelves (includingtheEastSiberianandBeaufort)andsmallerincreasesoninflowshelves(includingtheChukchi)OutflowshelveseitherexhibitednochangeinannualNPPoradeclineperhaps indicatingthatnutrientshadbeenconsumedfurtherupstreamIncreasedannualNPPwasoftenbutnotalwaysassociatedwithreducedsea0iceextentandresultantlonger phytoplanktongrowingseason

HumanactivitieshaveincreasedtheatmosphericCO2concentrationbyabout40sincethebeginningoftheindustrialageanditisestimatedthattheoceanhasabsorbedmorethan25

23

ofthetotalanthropogenicemissions(Mathisetal2015)TheoceanicuptakeofCO2triggersaseriesofchemicalreactionsinthesurfaceoceanthatreducespHandresultsinocean acidification(OA)InshortOAmakesseawatercorrosivetocalciumcarbonatemineralswhichmanymarineorganismsrelyonforbodystructuresHigh0latitudeoceanshave naturallylowcarbonateconcentrationssoareconsideredtobemorevulnerabletotheimpactsofOAbecauseadditionalcarbonatelossrepresentsamuchgreaterproportionalchangetothesystemInanovelstudyMathisetalprovideariskassessmentofOAimpacts tocommercialandtraditionalfisheriesfocusedonshellfishsalmonandfinfishTheresultant indexsuggeststhatwhilethenorthernBeringSeaisatmediumriskfromOAimpactsto fisheriesPacificArcticwatersnorthoftheSewardPeninsulaarecurrentlyatlowriskduelargelytoalackofdependenceonthesefoodsources

3)Lower)Trophic)Level)Communities)signals)from)direct)and)indirect)sampling

ThepredominantconceptualmodelframinghowmarineecosystemsinthePacificArctic respondtoreducedseaiceisbasedonchangesanticipatedfromashiftinpelagic0benthic coupling(Fig4)

Figure)4))Generalized)conceptual)model)depicting)the)influence)of)sea)ice)on)pelagicVbenthic)coupling)on) Pacific)Arctic)continental)shelves)

24

OnthebroadshelvesthatcomprisemuchofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemnewprimaryproductionfromsea0icealgaeandphytoplanktonbloomsfallstotheseafloortosupportrich benthiccommunities(Grebmeier2012)Asseaicethinsandretreatsearlierintheseasonitisanticipatedthatearlierandlargerphytoplanktonbloomswillswitchfromabenthic0 dominatedtoapelagic0dominatedmarineecosystemThisshiftwillcascadethroughthesystemsupportingnovelcommunitiesofsecondaryandtertiaryconsumers(zooplanktonandforagefishes)anduppertrophiclevelmarinebirdsandmammalsIndeedGrebmeieret al(2006)suggestedthatthistypeofecosystemshiftisalreadyunderwayinthemarinecommunitiesofthenorthernBeringSeaThePacificArcticisoftendescribedasabenthic0 dominatedmarineecosystemonethatdoesnotsupportalargebiomassorspeciesdiversityoffishesAdescriptionofconditionsthathavefosteredexistingbenthichotspotsoffersa solidfoundationforassessingfuturechangeswhileanaccountingoftheexistingcommunitiesofmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsprovidesastartingpointuponwhichtobuildalong0termrecord)

31Benthichotspotsandmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitats

ArecordofextantconditionsiskeytointerpretingmarineecosystemresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingnowevidentinthePacificArcticSucharecordexistsforfourbenthic lsquohotspotrsquocommunitiesinthenorthernBeringandChukchiseas(Grebmeieretal2015a)but notformarinefishesLong0termsamplingofbenthicmacrofaunalcommunitiesindicatesthatthebenthichotspotshavemaintainedconsistentlyhighbiomassforuptofourdecadesdueto reoccurrenceofseasonallyreliablemoderate0to0highwatercolumnproductioncoupledwithexportofcarbonfromoverlyingwaterstotheseafloorUppertrophiclevelbenthivorestargetpreyaggregationsineachofthehotspotsOverallbottom0upforcingbyhydrography andfoodsupplytothebenthosinfluencespersistenceandcompositionofbenthicpreywhichinturninfluencestheuppertrophiclevelspeciescompositionandseasonaloccurrence Whenconsistentlysampledintandemthesebenthos0benthivoreconnectionscanfacilitate useofUTLspeciesassentinelsofshiftsinpreycompositionandabundance(Mooreetal2014)

Sincethe2000stherehavebeenahostofArcticmarinefishsurveysintheChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasprecipitatedbybothscientificinterestintheimpactsofclimatechangeandcommercialinterestinoilandgasdevelopment(Logerwelletal2015)Resultsfrom thesesurveysprovideanovelopportunitytocompareArcticfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsrangingfromlagoonsandbeachestobenthicandpelagiccontinental shelfwatersAsynthesisofdatafromthesesurveysrevealedmoresimilaritiesthandifferencesinhabitatusebetweenthetwoseasForexamplenearshorehabitatisusedbyallageclassesofforagefishesandisalsoanurseryareaforotherspeciesinboththeChukchiand westernBeaufortseasNotablysomecommercialspeciesmaybeexpandingtheirrangenorthtothesewatersincludingchinooksalmon(Oncorhynchustshawytscha)walleyepollock (Gaduschalcogrammus)andflatfishes(Pleuronectidae)Inadditionasynthesisofinformationonrelativeabundanceandageofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)andsaffroncod

25

(Eleginusgracilis)bothkeypreyspeciesinArcticfoodwebssupportedthedevelopmentoflifehistoryanddistributionmodelsthatwillinformfutureresearchontrophicdynamicsin thePacificArcticsector

32Inferencesofmarineecosystemshiftsfromsealsseabirdsandseaducks

Additionalinformationregardingtheimpactoflsquonewnormalrsquobiophysicalconditionsonlowertrophiclevelspeciescanbeinferredfromshiftsinthedietandbodyconditionofmarine mammalsandbirdsCrawfordetal(2015)comparedthedietandconditionofringedseals(Pusahispida)andbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)harvestedintheAlaskanBeringand Chukchiseasduringhistorical(197501984)andrecent(200302012)periodsTheyfoundthe proportionoffishinthedietofbothspeciesincreasedintherecentreduced0iceperiodcomparedtothehistoricalperiodInadditionringedsealsgrewfasterhadthickerblubber andmaturedtwoyearsearlierBeardedsealshadthickerblubberintherecentperiodbut didnotmanifesttheotherchangesreportedfortheringedsealsAlthoughanumberofthe comparisonswerenotstatisticallysignificanttakentogethertheseobservationssuggestgreaterfishavailabilityintheAlaskanBering0Chukchimarineecosystemsupportinggood bodyconditionintheseals

AsinthesealpaperDivokyetal(2015)parsedalong0termdatasetintorecent(200302012)andhistorical(197501984)periodstocompareoceanographicconditionsnestlingdietandfledgingsuccessatablackguillemot(Cepphusgryllemandtii)breedingcolonyinthewestern BeaufortSeaFrom15Julyto1Septemberseaiceretreatedanaverageof18kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof958kmfromthecolonyduringthehistoricalperiodwhileinthe recentperiodiceretreataveraged98kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof5069kmSeasurfacetemperaturenearthecolonyincreasedby29⁰CbetweenthetwoperiodsWhileArcticcodcomprisedover95ofthepreyprovidedtonestlingsinthehistoricalperiodthis proportiondecreasedtolt5ofthenestlingdietduringmostyearsintherecentperiodwhendemersalsculpin(Cottidae)comprisedthemajorityofthedietTheshiftawayfrom Arcticcodwasassociatedwithafive0foldincreaseintherateofnestlingstarvationand reductionsinnestlinggrowthandfledgingmassConverselyannualadultsurvivalduringthe nonbreedingseason(September0May)showednosignificantdifferencebetweenthetwo periodssuggestingnochangeintheavailabilityofArcticcodorinoverallpreyavailabilityto blackguillemotsintheirBeringSeawinteringarea

IncontrasttoarelianceonpelagicpreyLovvornetal(2015)investigatedpotentialclimate0 relatedlimitstobenthicfeedingbyseaducksalongtheirmigrationcorridorinthenortheasternChukchiSeaKingeiders(Somateriaspectabilis)primarilyeatclams(bivalves) duringmigrationandrecentsamplinghasshownthatdenseclamassemblagesoccuronlyinspecificlocationsalongthemigrationcorridorSeaicecanpreventeidersfromreachingtheseprimefeedingsiteswithsatellitedataforApril‒May(2001‒2013)showingthataccess canvaryfrom0‒100InawarmingandincreasinglyvariableclimateaccesstobenthicfeedingsitesmaybefurthererodedbytheeffectsofwindsonunconsolidatediceThese

26

resultsunderscoretheimportanceofmaintainingarangeofbenthicfeedingareasthroughoutthemigrationcorridortoensurepreyavailabilitytotheeiderseachyear)

4)Upper)Trophic)Level)Species)marine)birds)and)mammals)as)ecosystem)sentinels

Astoppredatorsmarinebirdsandmammalsmustadapttochangesintheirhabitatsresultingfromphysicalforcingandtherebycanserveassentinelstoecosystemshifts(Mooreetal2014MooreandGulland2014)ResponsesofUTLspeciestoalteredhabitatscanbe categorizedasextrinsicincludingshiftsinrangemigratorytiming(phenology)orregionsofhighabundance(hotspots)orintrinsicincludingchangesindietbodyconditionand chemicalcomposition(Fig5)

Figure)5)Marine)birds)and)mammals)are)upper)trophic)level)(UTL))species)that)reflect)ecosystem) alterations)by)changes)in)habitat)use)(extrinsic))and)body)condition)(intrinsic))revealing)fundamental) changes)in)marine)ecosystems)

Responsesareinter0relatedsuchthatashiftinrangephenologyoruseofhotspotswillbe reflectedinchangesindietbodyconditionandchemistryItisthisconnectionthatallowsus

27

todetectecosystemreorganizationbytrackingchangesintheecologyandphysiologyofUTL speciesAlthoughtherehavebeennocoordinatedlong0termstudiesofUTLspeciesinthe PacificArcticexaminingthisconnectionasynthesisofinformationfromvisualsurveyssatellitetaggingofindividualsandyear0roundacousticdetectionsprovidesanecological foundationthatcanprovideabaselinetoinformfutureinvestigations

41Seasonaloccurrencehotspothabitatsandacousticecology

Kuletzetal(2015)depictspatialpatternsofrelativeabundanceofseabirdsandmarinemammalsinsummerandfallderivedfromsixyearsofvisualsurveysintheeasternChukchi andwesternBeaufortseasUsingstatisticalspatialanalysistoolshotspotsforseabirdswalrusandgraywhaleswereidentifiedintheChukchiSeawhilehotspotsforbowheadwhalesandsealsweredescribednearBarrowCanyonandalongtheBeaufortSeashelfand slopeHotspotsforbelugasoccurredinboththeChukchiandBeaufortseasInsummerthreehotspotsweresharedbybothseabirdsandmarinemammalsintheChukchiSeawaters offshoreWainwrightsouthofHannaShoalandatthemouthofBarrowCanyonOnlytheBarrowCanyonhotspotwasoccupiedthroughthefallSharedhotspotswerecharacterized bystrongfrontscausedbyupwellingandcurrentswhichcanservetoaggregatepreyUsingadifferentapproachCittaetal(2015)providedetailedanalysisoftheseasonalmovementsandhabitatusebyasinglespeciesthroughoutoneyearLocationsfrom54bowheadwhales (Balaenamysticetus)obtainedbysatellitetelemetryfrom200602012wereusedtoidentifya totalofsixcore0useareasintheBeaufort(3)Chukchi(1)andnorthernBering(2)seas Takentogetherthetimingofuse(phenology)andphysicalcharacteristics(oceanographyseaiceandwinds)associatedwitheachareadescribeaseasonalcircuitbythewhalesthroughareasthoughttosupportelevatedpreydensities

Passiveacousticsamplinghasbecomeacommonyear0roundtooltodetectcallingmarine mammalsinarcticseas(Mooreetal2006Staffordetal2012)Since2007therehasbeenanespeciallystrongsamplingeffortassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationinthenortheast ChukchiandwesternBeaufortseas(egHannayetal2013 httpwwwafscnoaagovnmmlcetaceanchaozphp)Theserecorderdeployments augmentalong0standingacousticstudyinthecentralBeaufortSea(Blackwelletal2007)andmorerecentdeploymentsintheBeringStraitregion(KStaffordperscomm)HeretoforeresearchersconductedeachofthesestudiesindependentlyofoneanotherClark etal(2015)presentsanovelsynthesisofthecombinedoutputfromsixresearcheffortsusingfourtypesofrecordersandavarietyofsub0samplingandanalysisschemestodescribean lsquoacousticyearrsquointhelifeofthebowheadwhaleDetectionsofbowheadcallsfrom20sitesextendingover2300kmfromthenorthernBeringSeatothesoutheastBeaufortSeawere combinedovera140monthperiod(200902010)todescribewhaleoccurrenceacrosstheir rangeThespatialandtemporalvariabilityinsoundlevelswithinthefrequencybandofbowheadwhaleswasalsoquantifiedThelowestunderwatersoundlevelsoccurredfromlate NovemberuntilMayintheChukchiSeaDuringwinter200902010singingbowheadwhaleselevatedbroadbandsoundlevelsforroughly38daysinthenorthernBeringSeafollowedby

28

asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

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ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

31

Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

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(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

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https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

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ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

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meeting

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Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

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21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

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25PJanP2016(

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25PJanP2016(

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 22: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

Theiconicindicatorofthischangeisthedramaticsummertimelossofseaice(50byarea75byvolume)whichinsomeyears(eg2012)hasresultedinnearlyice0freeconditionsin theregionSpecificallysatellitedatafrom197902012reveallocalizedchangesinsea0ice occurrenceofupto0164daysyearintheCanadaBasinand0124daysyearintheBeaufort Seawhichacceleratedto0657daysyear(CanadaBasin)and01284daysyear(Beaufort Sea)duringthe200002012period(Freyetal2015)Multiyearseaicehasalmostentirelydisappearedwithinter0annualvariabilityiniceconcentrationlargelydrivenbywindforcing intheBeaufortSeaIntheCanadaBasindifferencesinannualseaiceareprimarilythermallydrivenwhilesea0iceextentisinfluencedbybothwindsandheatontheBeringSeashelf

Thesummeratmosphericpatternsinfluenceoceancirculationfreshwaterpathwaysand movementandmeltingofseaiceDuringthelastdecadetheintensificationoftheBeaufortHigh(OgiandWallace2012)resultedinanomaloussummerwindsTheseanomalouswinds togetherwiththelossofmulti0yeariceweretheprimaryfactorsthattransformedtheChukchiandnorthernBeaufortseasintoanopenwaterenvironment(Woodetal2015)InparticulartheeasternBeaufortSeaappearstobeparticularlysusceptibletoanomalouswindsthrough theireffectontheadvectionofwarmfreshwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumeInadditiontransportanomaliesintheBeringStraitaredeterminedbycompetinglarge0scale atmosphericpatternstheBeaufortHighandAleutianLow(Danielsonetal2014)NotablychangesinBeringStraitflowthroughcanimpacttheworldclimatefarbeyondtheBeringStraitandArcticregion(egHuetal2015)

Freyetal(2015)investigatetheinfluenceofthePacificDecadalOscillation(PDO)andtheArcticOscillation(AO)onthepersistenceofseaiceinsummerandwinterTheyfoundsignificantnegativecorrelationsbetweenseaiceonthesoutheasternBeringSeashelfandthe PDOinwinteraswellassignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweentheAOandsea0icecoverjustsouthofStLawrenceIslandSignificantpositivecorrelationsbetweenthePDOandsea iceintheCanadaBasin0CanadianArchipelagowerefoundinsummeraswellasbetweentheAOandseaiceintheChukchi0BeaufortseasThisnovelinvestigationofteleconnections betweenthePDOtheAOandsea0icecoverprovidesacriticalstepinunderstandinghow globalandregionalclimatepatternsinfluencethephysicsofthePacificArcticregion

Theunprecedentedlossofseaicehasresultedinatremendousincreaseinopen0water susceptibletorapidsolarheatingwithadditionalheatandfreshwaterprovidedbya50 increaseinPacificWaterinflowatBeringStraitfrom200102011(Woodgateetal2012 Woodetal2015)TheinfluenceofincreasedheatstoredintheChukchiandBeaufortseasis notwellunderstoodSuggestionsthatheatreleasedtotheatmosphereinlateautumnandwinterdrivesaspectsofmid0latitudeweatherremainspeculativelargelyduetotheshort timerecordavailable(Woodetal2015)FresheningoftheArcticOceanhasbeenoccurring atleastsincethe1990s(egGilesetal2012)Severalexplanationshavebeenproposed includingincreasedsea0icemeltfresherPacificWaterflowingthroughBeringStraitchanges inthemagnitudeofriverdischargeandthemeanstrengtheningoftheBeaufortHighInrecentyearsrelativelystrongeasterlywindshavebeencommonduetotheArctic0wide

22

patternofcirculationaroundanintensifiedBeaufortHighUndertheseconditionsfreshand warmwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumecanbelaterallytransportedfaroutintothe BeaufortSea(Woodetal2015)

WangandOverland(2015)comparedresultsfromtwelvecoupledclimatemodelstoproducecompositeprojectionsofthedurationofopenwaterintheChukchiandBeaufortseasat decadalintervalsfrom201002050andin2090Forwatersnorthofthe70degNopen0water durationshiftsfrom304monthsin2010toaprojected~5monthsby2040Projectedopen0 waterdurationisaboutonemonthlongeralongthesamelatitudesintheChukchiSeacomparedwiththeBeaufortSeawithuncertaintyofaboutplusmn1monthestimatedfromtherangeofmodelresultsAllmodelsprojectedopen0waterdurationtoexpandquicklyoverthe nextthreedecadeswhichwillimpactregionaleconomicaccessandpotentiallyalterecosystemsYetthePacificArcticregionwillremaincoveredwiththinfirst0yearicefrom JanuarythroughMayintothesecondhalfofthecenturyduetoseasonallackofsunlight

22Changesinprimaryproductionandoceanacidification

Thedramaticlossofsea0iceextentandvolumehasresultedinaconcomitantincreaseinlightpenetrationintheupperoceanacrosstheArcticGiventhethinningandarealreductionof seaiceafundamentalquestionariseshavethesechangesfosteredanincreaseinmarineprimaryproductionSpecificallyisthePacificArcticregionmoreproductivethanitwasthreedecadesagoIntheAtlanticArcticLeuetal(2011)measuredprimaryproductionby bothicealgaeandphytoplanktonincontrastingyears(2007008)ofsea0icecoverinaSvalbardfjordandconcludedthatearliericebreakupcorrespondedwithearlieronsetofa phytoplanktonbloomSimilarlyTremblayetal(2012)reportincreasedprimaryproductionfor2007008associatedwithextremesea0iceretreatsandincreasedupwellingatstations locatedsouthandeastofBanksIslandinthesoutheasternBeaufortSeaButcanconclusions drawnfrommeasurementssorestrictedinspaceandtimebeextrapolatedtolargerarcticregionsUsingsatelliteimageryArrigoandvanDijken(2015)investigatedchangesinseaice atbothregionalandbasinscalesfrom199802012andestimatedhowthesechangeshaveimpactedratesofnetprimaryproduction(NPP)byphytoplanktonTheyreportthatannual NPPincreased30duringthisperiodwiththelargestincreasesontheinteriorshelves (includingtheEastSiberianandBeaufort)andsmallerincreasesoninflowshelves(includingtheChukchi)OutflowshelveseitherexhibitednochangeinannualNPPoradeclineperhaps indicatingthatnutrientshadbeenconsumedfurtherupstreamIncreasedannualNPPwasoftenbutnotalwaysassociatedwithreducedsea0iceextentandresultantlonger phytoplanktongrowingseason

HumanactivitieshaveincreasedtheatmosphericCO2concentrationbyabout40sincethebeginningoftheindustrialageanditisestimatedthattheoceanhasabsorbedmorethan25

23

ofthetotalanthropogenicemissions(Mathisetal2015)TheoceanicuptakeofCO2triggersaseriesofchemicalreactionsinthesurfaceoceanthatreducespHandresultsinocean acidification(OA)InshortOAmakesseawatercorrosivetocalciumcarbonatemineralswhichmanymarineorganismsrelyonforbodystructuresHigh0latitudeoceanshave naturallylowcarbonateconcentrationssoareconsideredtobemorevulnerabletotheimpactsofOAbecauseadditionalcarbonatelossrepresentsamuchgreaterproportionalchangetothesystemInanovelstudyMathisetalprovideariskassessmentofOAimpacts tocommercialandtraditionalfisheriesfocusedonshellfishsalmonandfinfishTheresultant indexsuggeststhatwhilethenorthernBeringSeaisatmediumriskfromOAimpactsto fisheriesPacificArcticwatersnorthoftheSewardPeninsulaarecurrentlyatlowriskduelargelytoalackofdependenceonthesefoodsources

3)Lower)Trophic)Level)Communities)signals)from)direct)and)indirect)sampling

ThepredominantconceptualmodelframinghowmarineecosystemsinthePacificArctic respondtoreducedseaiceisbasedonchangesanticipatedfromashiftinpelagic0benthic coupling(Fig4)

Figure)4))Generalized)conceptual)model)depicting)the)influence)of)sea)ice)on)pelagicVbenthic)coupling)on) Pacific)Arctic)continental)shelves)

24

OnthebroadshelvesthatcomprisemuchofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemnewprimaryproductionfromsea0icealgaeandphytoplanktonbloomsfallstotheseafloortosupportrich benthiccommunities(Grebmeier2012)Asseaicethinsandretreatsearlierintheseasonitisanticipatedthatearlierandlargerphytoplanktonbloomswillswitchfromabenthic0 dominatedtoapelagic0dominatedmarineecosystemThisshiftwillcascadethroughthesystemsupportingnovelcommunitiesofsecondaryandtertiaryconsumers(zooplanktonandforagefishes)anduppertrophiclevelmarinebirdsandmammalsIndeedGrebmeieret al(2006)suggestedthatthistypeofecosystemshiftisalreadyunderwayinthemarinecommunitiesofthenorthernBeringSeaThePacificArcticisoftendescribedasabenthic0 dominatedmarineecosystemonethatdoesnotsupportalargebiomassorspeciesdiversityoffishesAdescriptionofconditionsthathavefosteredexistingbenthichotspotsoffersa solidfoundationforassessingfuturechangeswhileanaccountingoftheexistingcommunitiesofmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsprovidesastartingpointuponwhichtobuildalong0termrecord)

31Benthichotspotsandmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitats

ArecordofextantconditionsiskeytointerpretingmarineecosystemresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingnowevidentinthePacificArcticSucharecordexistsforfourbenthic lsquohotspotrsquocommunitiesinthenorthernBeringandChukchiseas(Grebmeieretal2015a)but notformarinefishesLong0termsamplingofbenthicmacrofaunalcommunitiesindicatesthatthebenthichotspotshavemaintainedconsistentlyhighbiomassforuptofourdecadesdueto reoccurrenceofseasonallyreliablemoderate0to0highwatercolumnproductioncoupledwithexportofcarbonfromoverlyingwaterstotheseafloorUppertrophiclevelbenthivorestargetpreyaggregationsineachofthehotspotsOverallbottom0upforcingbyhydrography andfoodsupplytothebenthosinfluencespersistenceandcompositionofbenthicpreywhichinturninfluencestheuppertrophiclevelspeciescompositionandseasonaloccurrence Whenconsistentlysampledintandemthesebenthos0benthivoreconnectionscanfacilitate useofUTLspeciesassentinelsofshiftsinpreycompositionandabundance(Mooreetal2014)

Sincethe2000stherehavebeenahostofArcticmarinefishsurveysintheChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasprecipitatedbybothscientificinterestintheimpactsofclimatechangeandcommercialinterestinoilandgasdevelopment(Logerwelletal2015)Resultsfrom thesesurveysprovideanovelopportunitytocompareArcticfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsrangingfromlagoonsandbeachestobenthicandpelagiccontinental shelfwatersAsynthesisofdatafromthesesurveysrevealedmoresimilaritiesthandifferencesinhabitatusebetweenthetwoseasForexamplenearshorehabitatisusedbyallageclassesofforagefishesandisalsoanurseryareaforotherspeciesinboththeChukchiand westernBeaufortseasNotablysomecommercialspeciesmaybeexpandingtheirrangenorthtothesewatersincludingchinooksalmon(Oncorhynchustshawytscha)walleyepollock (Gaduschalcogrammus)andflatfishes(Pleuronectidae)Inadditionasynthesisofinformationonrelativeabundanceandageofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)andsaffroncod

25

(Eleginusgracilis)bothkeypreyspeciesinArcticfoodwebssupportedthedevelopmentoflifehistoryanddistributionmodelsthatwillinformfutureresearchontrophicdynamicsin thePacificArcticsector

32Inferencesofmarineecosystemshiftsfromsealsseabirdsandseaducks

Additionalinformationregardingtheimpactoflsquonewnormalrsquobiophysicalconditionsonlowertrophiclevelspeciescanbeinferredfromshiftsinthedietandbodyconditionofmarine mammalsandbirdsCrawfordetal(2015)comparedthedietandconditionofringedseals(Pusahispida)andbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)harvestedintheAlaskanBeringand Chukchiseasduringhistorical(197501984)andrecent(200302012)periodsTheyfoundthe proportionoffishinthedietofbothspeciesincreasedintherecentreduced0iceperiodcomparedtothehistoricalperiodInadditionringedsealsgrewfasterhadthickerblubber andmaturedtwoyearsearlierBeardedsealshadthickerblubberintherecentperiodbut didnotmanifesttheotherchangesreportedfortheringedsealsAlthoughanumberofthe comparisonswerenotstatisticallysignificanttakentogethertheseobservationssuggestgreaterfishavailabilityintheAlaskanBering0Chukchimarineecosystemsupportinggood bodyconditionintheseals

AsinthesealpaperDivokyetal(2015)parsedalong0termdatasetintorecent(200302012)andhistorical(197501984)periodstocompareoceanographicconditionsnestlingdietandfledgingsuccessatablackguillemot(Cepphusgryllemandtii)breedingcolonyinthewestern BeaufortSeaFrom15Julyto1Septemberseaiceretreatedanaverageof18kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof958kmfromthecolonyduringthehistoricalperiodwhileinthe recentperiodiceretreataveraged98kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof5069kmSeasurfacetemperaturenearthecolonyincreasedby29⁰CbetweenthetwoperiodsWhileArcticcodcomprisedover95ofthepreyprovidedtonestlingsinthehistoricalperiodthis proportiondecreasedtolt5ofthenestlingdietduringmostyearsintherecentperiodwhendemersalsculpin(Cottidae)comprisedthemajorityofthedietTheshiftawayfrom Arcticcodwasassociatedwithafive0foldincreaseintherateofnestlingstarvationand reductionsinnestlinggrowthandfledgingmassConverselyannualadultsurvivalduringthe nonbreedingseason(September0May)showednosignificantdifferencebetweenthetwo periodssuggestingnochangeintheavailabilityofArcticcodorinoverallpreyavailabilityto blackguillemotsintheirBeringSeawinteringarea

IncontrasttoarelianceonpelagicpreyLovvornetal(2015)investigatedpotentialclimate0 relatedlimitstobenthicfeedingbyseaducksalongtheirmigrationcorridorinthenortheasternChukchiSeaKingeiders(Somateriaspectabilis)primarilyeatclams(bivalves) duringmigrationandrecentsamplinghasshownthatdenseclamassemblagesoccuronlyinspecificlocationsalongthemigrationcorridorSeaicecanpreventeidersfromreachingtheseprimefeedingsiteswithsatellitedataforApril‒May(2001‒2013)showingthataccess canvaryfrom0‒100InawarmingandincreasinglyvariableclimateaccesstobenthicfeedingsitesmaybefurthererodedbytheeffectsofwindsonunconsolidatediceThese

26

resultsunderscoretheimportanceofmaintainingarangeofbenthicfeedingareasthroughoutthemigrationcorridortoensurepreyavailabilitytotheeiderseachyear)

4)Upper)Trophic)Level)Species)marine)birds)and)mammals)as)ecosystem)sentinels

Astoppredatorsmarinebirdsandmammalsmustadapttochangesintheirhabitatsresultingfromphysicalforcingandtherebycanserveassentinelstoecosystemshifts(Mooreetal2014MooreandGulland2014)ResponsesofUTLspeciestoalteredhabitatscanbe categorizedasextrinsicincludingshiftsinrangemigratorytiming(phenology)orregionsofhighabundance(hotspots)orintrinsicincludingchangesindietbodyconditionand chemicalcomposition(Fig5)

Figure)5)Marine)birds)and)mammals)are)upper)trophic)level)(UTL))species)that)reflect)ecosystem) alterations)by)changes)in)habitat)use)(extrinsic))and)body)condition)(intrinsic))revealing)fundamental) changes)in)marine)ecosystems)

Responsesareinter0relatedsuchthatashiftinrangephenologyoruseofhotspotswillbe reflectedinchangesindietbodyconditionandchemistryItisthisconnectionthatallowsus

27

todetectecosystemreorganizationbytrackingchangesintheecologyandphysiologyofUTL speciesAlthoughtherehavebeennocoordinatedlong0termstudiesofUTLspeciesinthe PacificArcticexaminingthisconnectionasynthesisofinformationfromvisualsurveyssatellitetaggingofindividualsandyear0roundacousticdetectionsprovidesanecological foundationthatcanprovideabaselinetoinformfutureinvestigations

41Seasonaloccurrencehotspothabitatsandacousticecology

Kuletzetal(2015)depictspatialpatternsofrelativeabundanceofseabirdsandmarinemammalsinsummerandfallderivedfromsixyearsofvisualsurveysintheeasternChukchi andwesternBeaufortseasUsingstatisticalspatialanalysistoolshotspotsforseabirdswalrusandgraywhaleswereidentifiedintheChukchiSeawhilehotspotsforbowheadwhalesandsealsweredescribednearBarrowCanyonandalongtheBeaufortSeashelfand slopeHotspotsforbelugasoccurredinboththeChukchiandBeaufortseasInsummerthreehotspotsweresharedbybothseabirdsandmarinemammalsintheChukchiSeawaters offshoreWainwrightsouthofHannaShoalandatthemouthofBarrowCanyonOnlytheBarrowCanyonhotspotwasoccupiedthroughthefallSharedhotspotswerecharacterized bystrongfrontscausedbyupwellingandcurrentswhichcanservetoaggregatepreyUsingadifferentapproachCittaetal(2015)providedetailedanalysisoftheseasonalmovementsandhabitatusebyasinglespeciesthroughoutoneyearLocationsfrom54bowheadwhales (Balaenamysticetus)obtainedbysatellitetelemetryfrom200602012wereusedtoidentifya totalofsixcore0useareasintheBeaufort(3)Chukchi(1)andnorthernBering(2)seas Takentogetherthetimingofuse(phenology)andphysicalcharacteristics(oceanographyseaiceandwinds)associatedwitheachareadescribeaseasonalcircuitbythewhalesthroughareasthoughttosupportelevatedpreydensities

Passiveacousticsamplinghasbecomeacommonyear0roundtooltodetectcallingmarine mammalsinarcticseas(Mooreetal2006Staffordetal2012)Since2007therehasbeenanespeciallystrongsamplingeffortassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationinthenortheast ChukchiandwesternBeaufortseas(egHannayetal2013 httpwwwafscnoaagovnmmlcetaceanchaozphp)Theserecorderdeployments augmentalong0standingacousticstudyinthecentralBeaufortSea(Blackwelletal2007)andmorerecentdeploymentsintheBeringStraitregion(KStaffordperscomm)HeretoforeresearchersconductedeachofthesestudiesindependentlyofoneanotherClark etal(2015)presentsanovelsynthesisofthecombinedoutputfromsixresearcheffortsusingfourtypesofrecordersandavarietyofsub0samplingandanalysisschemestodescribean lsquoacousticyearrsquointhelifeofthebowheadwhaleDetectionsofbowheadcallsfrom20sitesextendingover2300kmfromthenorthernBeringSeatothesoutheastBeaufortSeawere combinedovera140monthperiod(200902010)todescribewhaleoccurrenceacrosstheir rangeThespatialandtemporalvariabilityinsoundlevelswithinthefrequencybandofbowheadwhaleswasalsoquantifiedThelowestunderwatersoundlevelsoccurredfromlate NovemberuntilMayintheChukchiSeaDuringwinter200902010singingbowheadwhaleselevatedbroadbandsoundlevelsforroughly38daysinthenorthernBeringSeafollowedby

28

asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

29

ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

31

Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

32

(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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CittaJJOkkonenSRQuakenbushLTMaslowskiWOsinskiRGeorgeJCSmallRJ BrowerJrHHeide0JoslashrgensenMPHarwoodLAinpressaOceanographiccharacteristicsassociatedwithautumnmovementsofbowheadwhalesintheChukchi Sea

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DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarcticsea iceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161

DruckenmillerMLCittaJJFergusonMCClarkeJTGeorgeJCQuakenbushLinpressTrendsinsea0icecoverwithinbowheadwhalehabitatsinthePacificArctic

47

DuntonKHGrebmeierJM andTrefry JH2017HannaShoalAnintegrativestudyofaHighArcticmarineecosystemintheChukchiSeaDeepSeaResearchPartIIDOI 101016jdsr2201709001

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FeelyRADoneySCCooleySR2009Oceanacidificationpresentconditionsandfuture changesinahigh0CO2worldOceanography2236047

FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015DivergentpatternsofrecentseaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049

GeorgeJCBadaJZehJScottLBrownSEOharaTampSuydamR1999Ageandgrowthestimatesofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)viaasparticacid racemizationCanadianJournalofZoology775710580

GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgress inOceanography1362500262

GilesKALaxonSWRidoutALWinghamDJBaconS2012WesternArcticOceanfreshwaterstorageincreasedbywind0drivenspin0upoftheBeaufortGyreNature Geoscience51940197

GrebmeierJMOverlandJEMooreSEFarleyEVCarmackECCooperLWFreyKEHelleJHMcLaughlinFAMcNuttSL2006AmajorecosystemshiftinthenorthernBeringSeaScience311146101464

GrebmeierJM2012ShiftingpatternsoflifeinthePacificArcticandsub0arcticseasAnnual ReviewofMarineScience41610166

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GrebmeierJMMooreSE Overland JEFrey KEandGradinger R2010BiologicalresponsetorecentPacificArcticseaiceretreatsEOS91(18)1610168

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HillVArdynaMLeeSHVarelaDEinpressDecadaltrendsinphytoplankton productioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

preferenceandbehaviorinthenortheasternChukchiSea1982084RepIntWhale Commn362730279

MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

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Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

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Page 23: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

patternofcirculationaroundanintensifiedBeaufortHighUndertheseconditionsfreshand warmwaterfromtheMackenzieRiverplumecanbelaterallytransportedfaroutintothe BeaufortSea(Woodetal2015)

WangandOverland(2015)comparedresultsfromtwelvecoupledclimatemodelstoproducecompositeprojectionsofthedurationofopenwaterintheChukchiandBeaufortseasat decadalintervalsfrom201002050andin2090Forwatersnorthofthe70degNopen0water durationshiftsfrom304monthsin2010toaprojected~5monthsby2040Projectedopen0 waterdurationisaboutonemonthlongeralongthesamelatitudesintheChukchiSeacomparedwiththeBeaufortSeawithuncertaintyofaboutplusmn1monthestimatedfromtherangeofmodelresultsAllmodelsprojectedopen0waterdurationtoexpandquicklyoverthe nextthreedecadeswhichwillimpactregionaleconomicaccessandpotentiallyalterecosystemsYetthePacificArcticregionwillremaincoveredwiththinfirst0yearicefrom JanuarythroughMayintothesecondhalfofthecenturyduetoseasonallackofsunlight

22Changesinprimaryproductionandoceanacidification

Thedramaticlossofsea0iceextentandvolumehasresultedinaconcomitantincreaseinlightpenetrationintheupperoceanacrosstheArcticGiventhethinningandarealreductionof seaiceafundamentalquestionariseshavethesechangesfosteredanincreaseinmarineprimaryproductionSpecificallyisthePacificArcticregionmoreproductivethanitwasthreedecadesagoIntheAtlanticArcticLeuetal(2011)measuredprimaryproductionby bothicealgaeandphytoplanktonincontrastingyears(2007008)ofsea0icecoverinaSvalbardfjordandconcludedthatearliericebreakupcorrespondedwithearlieronsetofa phytoplanktonbloomSimilarlyTremblayetal(2012)reportincreasedprimaryproductionfor2007008associatedwithextremesea0iceretreatsandincreasedupwellingatstations locatedsouthandeastofBanksIslandinthesoutheasternBeaufortSeaButcanconclusions drawnfrommeasurementssorestrictedinspaceandtimebeextrapolatedtolargerarcticregionsUsingsatelliteimageryArrigoandvanDijken(2015)investigatedchangesinseaice atbothregionalandbasinscalesfrom199802012andestimatedhowthesechangeshaveimpactedratesofnetprimaryproduction(NPP)byphytoplanktonTheyreportthatannual NPPincreased30duringthisperiodwiththelargestincreasesontheinteriorshelves (includingtheEastSiberianandBeaufort)andsmallerincreasesoninflowshelves(includingtheChukchi)OutflowshelveseitherexhibitednochangeinannualNPPoradeclineperhaps indicatingthatnutrientshadbeenconsumedfurtherupstreamIncreasedannualNPPwasoftenbutnotalwaysassociatedwithreducedsea0iceextentandresultantlonger phytoplanktongrowingseason

HumanactivitieshaveincreasedtheatmosphericCO2concentrationbyabout40sincethebeginningoftheindustrialageanditisestimatedthattheoceanhasabsorbedmorethan25

23

ofthetotalanthropogenicemissions(Mathisetal2015)TheoceanicuptakeofCO2triggersaseriesofchemicalreactionsinthesurfaceoceanthatreducespHandresultsinocean acidification(OA)InshortOAmakesseawatercorrosivetocalciumcarbonatemineralswhichmanymarineorganismsrelyonforbodystructuresHigh0latitudeoceanshave naturallylowcarbonateconcentrationssoareconsideredtobemorevulnerabletotheimpactsofOAbecauseadditionalcarbonatelossrepresentsamuchgreaterproportionalchangetothesystemInanovelstudyMathisetalprovideariskassessmentofOAimpacts tocommercialandtraditionalfisheriesfocusedonshellfishsalmonandfinfishTheresultant indexsuggeststhatwhilethenorthernBeringSeaisatmediumriskfromOAimpactsto fisheriesPacificArcticwatersnorthoftheSewardPeninsulaarecurrentlyatlowriskduelargelytoalackofdependenceonthesefoodsources

3)Lower)Trophic)Level)Communities)signals)from)direct)and)indirect)sampling

ThepredominantconceptualmodelframinghowmarineecosystemsinthePacificArctic respondtoreducedseaiceisbasedonchangesanticipatedfromashiftinpelagic0benthic coupling(Fig4)

Figure)4))Generalized)conceptual)model)depicting)the)influence)of)sea)ice)on)pelagicVbenthic)coupling)on) Pacific)Arctic)continental)shelves)

24

OnthebroadshelvesthatcomprisemuchofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemnewprimaryproductionfromsea0icealgaeandphytoplanktonbloomsfallstotheseafloortosupportrich benthiccommunities(Grebmeier2012)Asseaicethinsandretreatsearlierintheseasonitisanticipatedthatearlierandlargerphytoplanktonbloomswillswitchfromabenthic0 dominatedtoapelagic0dominatedmarineecosystemThisshiftwillcascadethroughthesystemsupportingnovelcommunitiesofsecondaryandtertiaryconsumers(zooplanktonandforagefishes)anduppertrophiclevelmarinebirdsandmammalsIndeedGrebmeieret al(2006)suggestedthatthistypeofecosystemshiftisalreadyunderwayinthemarinecommunitiesofthenorthernBeringSeaThePacificArcticisoftendescribedasabenthic0 dominatedmarineecosystemonethatdoesnotsupportalargebiomassorspeciesdiversityoffishesAdescriptionofconditionsthathavefosteredexistingbenthichotspotsoffersa solidfoundationforassessingfuturechangeswhileanaccountingoftheexistingcommunitiesofmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsprovidesastartingpointuponwhichtobuildalong0termrecord)

31Benthichotspotsandmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitats

ArecordofextantconditionsiskeytointerpretingmarineecosystemresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingnowevidentinthePacificArcticSucharecordexistsforfourbenthic lsquohotspotrsquocommunitiesinthenorthernBeringandChukchiseas(Grebmeieretal2015a)but notformarinefishesLong0termsamplingofbenthicmacrofaunalcommunitiesindicatesthatthebenthichotspotshavemaintainedconsistentlyhighbiomassforuptofourdecadesdueto reoccurrenceofseasonallyreliablemoderate0to0highwatercolumnproductioncoupledwithexportofcarbonfromoverlyingwaterstotheseafloorUppertrophiclevelbenthivorestargetpreyaggregationsineachofthehotspotsOverallbottom0upforcingbyhydrography andfoodsupplytothebenthosinfluencespersistenceandcompositionofbenthicpreywhichinturninfluencestheuppertrophiclevelspeciescompositionandseasonaloccurrence Whenconsistentlysampledintandemthesebenthos0benthivoreconnectionscanfacilitate useofUTLspeciesassentinelsofshiftsinpreycompositionandabundance(Mooreetal2014)

Sincethe2000stherehavebeenahostofArcticmarinefishsurveysintheChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasprecipitatedbybothscientificinterestintheimpactsofclimatechangeandcommercialinterestinoilandgasdevelopment(Logerwelletal2015)Resultsfrom thesesurveysprovideanovelopportunitytocompareArcticfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsrangingfromlagoonsandbeachestobenthicandpelagiccontinental shelfwatersAsynthesisofdatafromthesesurveysrevealedmoresimilaritiesthandifferencesinhabitatusebetweenthetwoseasForexamplenearshorehabitatisusedbyallageclassesofforagefishesandisalsoanurseryareaforotherspeciesinboththeChukchiand westernBeaufortseasNotablysomecommercialspeciesmaybeexpandingtheirrangenorthtothesewatersincludingchinooksalmon(Oncorhynchustshawytscha)walleyepollock (Gaduschalcogrammus)andflatfishes(Pleuronectidae)Inadditionasynthesisofinformationonrelativeabundanceandageofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)andsaffroncod

25

(Eleginusgracilis)bothkeypreyspeciesinArcticfoodwebssupportedthedevelopmentoflifehistoryanddistributionmodelsthatwillinformfutureresearchontrophicdynamicsin thePacificArcticsector

32Inferencesofmarineecosystemshiftsfromsealsseabirdsandseaducks

Additionalinformationregardingtheimpactoflsquonewnormalrsquobiophysicalconditionsonlowertrophiclevelspeciescanbeinferredfromshiftsinthedietandbodyconditionofmarine mammalsandbirdsCrawfordetal(2015)comparedthedietandconditionofringedseals(Pusahispida)andbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)harvestedintheAlaskanBeringand Chukchiseasduringhistorical(197501984)andrecent(200302012)periodsTheyfoundthe proportionoffishinthedietofbothspeciesincreasedintherecentreduced0iceperiodcomparedtothehistoricalperiodInadditionringedsealsgrewfasterhadthickerblubber andmaturedtwoyearsearlierBeardedsealshadthickerblubberintherecentperiodbut didnotmanifesttheotherchangesreportedfortheringedsealsAlthoughanumberofthe comparisonswerenotstatisticallysignificanttakentogethertheseobservationssuggestgreaterfishavailabilityintheAlaskanBering0Chukchimarineecosystemsupportinggood bodyconditionintheseals

AsinthesealpaperDivokyetal(2015)parsedalong0termdatasetintorecent(200302012)andhistorical(197501984)periodstocompareoceanographicconditionsnestlingdietandfledgingsuccessatablackguillemot(Cepphusgryllemandtii)breedingcolonyinthewestern BeaufortSeaFrom15Julyto1Septemberseaiceretreatedanaverageof18kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof958kmfromthecolonyduringthehistoricalperiodwhileinthe recentperiodiceretreataveraged98kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof5069kmSeasurfacetemperaturenearthecolonyincreasedby29⁰CbetweenthetwoperiodsWhileArcticcodcomprisedover95ofthepreyprovidedtonestlingsinthehistoricalperiodthis proportiondecreasedtolt5ofthenestlingdietduringmostyearsintherecentperiodwhendemersalsculpin(Cottidae)comprisedthemajorityofthedietTheshiftawayfrom Arcticcodwasassociatedwithafive0foldincreaseintherateofnestlingstarvationand reductionsinnestlinggrowthandfledgingmassConverselyannualadultsurvivalduringthe nonbreedingseason(September0May)showednosignificantdifferencebetweenthetwo periodssuggestingnochangeintheavailabilityofArcticcodorinoverallpreyavailabilityto blackguillemotsintheirBeringSeawinteringarea

IncontrasttoarelianceonpelagicpreyLovvornetal(2015)investigatedpotentialclimate0 relatedlimitstobenthicfeedingbyseaducksalongtheirmigrationcorridorinthenortheasternChukchiSeaKingeiders(Somateriaspectabilis)primarilyeatclams(bivalves) duringmigrationandrecentsamplinghasshownthatdenseclamassemblagesoccuronlyinspecificlocationsalongthemigrationcorridorSeaicecanpreventeidersfromreachingtheseprimefeedingsiteswithsatellitedataforApril‒May(2001‒2013)showingthataccess canvaryfrom0‒100InawarmingandincreasinglyvariableclimateaccesstobenthicfeedingsitesmaybefurthererodedbytheeffectsofwindsonunconsolidatediceThese

26

resultsunderscoretheimportanceofmaintainingarangeofbenthicfeedingareasthroughoutthemigrationcorridortoensurepreyavailabilitytotheeiderseachyear)

4)Upper)Trophic)Level)Species)marine)birds)and)mammals)as)ecosystem)sentinels

Astoppredatorsmarinebirdsandmammalsmustadapttochangesintheirhabitatsresultingfromphysicalforcingandtherebycanserveassentinelstoecosystemshifts(Mooreetal2014MooreandGulland2014)ResponsesofUTLspeciestoalteredhabitatscanbe categorizedasextrinsicincludingshiftsinrangemigratorytiming(phenology)orregionsofhighabundance(hotspots)orintrinsicincludingchangesindietbodyconditionand chemicalcomposition(Fig5)

Figure)5)Marine)birds)and)mammals)are)upper)trophic)level)(UTL))species)that)reflect)ecosystem) alterations)by)changes)in)habitat)use)(extrinsic))and)body)condition)(intrinsic))revealing)fundamental) changes)in)marine)ecosystems)

Responsesareinter0relatedsuchthatashiftinrangephenologyoruseofhotspotswillbe reflectedinchangesindietbodyconditionandchemistryItisthisconnectionthatallowsus

27

todetectecosystemreorganizationbytrackingchangesintheecologyandphysiologyofUTL speciesAlthoughtherehavebeennocoordinatedlong0termstudiesofUTLspeciesinthe PacificArcticexaminingthisconnectionasynthesisofinformationfromvisualsurveyssatellitetaggingofindividualsandyear0roundacousticdetectionsprovidesanecological foundationthatcanprovideabaselinetoinformfutureinvestigations

41Seasonaloccurrencehotspothabitatsandacousticecology

Kuletzetal(2015)depictspatialpatternsofrelativeabundanceofseabirdsandmarinemammalsinsummerandfallderivedfromsixyearsofvisualsurveysintheeasternChukchi andwesternBeaufortseasUsingstatisticalspatialanalysistoolshotspotsforseabirdswalrusandgraywhaleswereidentifiedintheChukchiSeawhilehotspotsforbowheadwhalesandsealsweredescribednearBarrowCanyonandalongtheBeaufortSeashelfand slopeHotspotsforbelugasoccurredinboththeChukchiandBeaufortseasInsummerthreehotspotsweresharedbybothseabirdsandmarinemammalsintheChukchiSeawaters offshoreWainwrightsouthofHannaShoalandatthemouthofBarrowCanyonOnlytheBarrowCanyonhotspotwasoccupiedthroughthefallSharedhotspotswerecharacterized bystrongfrontscausedbyupwellingandcurrentswhichcanservetoaggregatepreyUsingadifferentapproachCittaetal(2015)providedetailedanalysisoftheseasonalmovementsandhabitatusebyasinglespeciesthroughoutoneyearLocationsfrom54bowheadwhales (Balaenamysticetus)obtainedbysatellitetelemetryfrom200602012wereusedtoidentifya totalofsixcore0useareasintheBeaufort(3)Chukchi(1)andnorthernBering(2)seas Takentogetherthetimingofuse(phenology)andphysicalcharacteristics(oceanographyseaiceandwinds)associatedwitheachareadescribeaseasonalcircuitbythewhalesthroughareasthoughttosupportelevatedpreydensities

Passiveacousticsamplinghasbecomeacommonyear0roundtooltodetectcallingmarine mammalsinarcticseas(Mooreetal2006Staffordetal2012)Since2007therehasbeenanespeciallystrongsamplingeffortassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationinthenortheast ChukchiandwesternBeaufortseas(egHannayetal2013 httpwwwafscnoaagovnmmlcetaceanchaozphp)Theserecorderdeployments augmentalong0standingacousticstudyinthecentralBeaufortSea(Blackwelletal2007)andmorerecentdeploymentsintheBeringStraitregion(KStaffordperscomm)HeretoforeresearchersconductedeachofthesestudiesindependentlyofoneanotherClark etal(2015)presentsanovelsynthesisofthecombinedoutputfromsixresearcheffortsusingfourtypesofrecordersandavarietyofsub0samplingandanalysisschemestodescribean lsquoacousticyearrsquointhelifeofthebowheadwhaleDetectionsofbowheadcallsfrom20sitesextendingover2300kmfromthenorthernBeringSeatothesoutheastBeaufortSeawere combinedovera140monthperiod(200902010)todescribewhaleoccurrenceacrosstheir rangeThespatialandtemporalvariabilityinsoundlevelswithinthefrequencybandofbowheadwhaleswasalsoquantifiedThelowestunderwatersoundlevelsoccurredfromlate NovemberuntilMayintheChukchiSeaDuringwinter200902010singingbowheadwhaleselevatedbroadbandsoundlevelsforroughly38daysinthenorthernBeringSeafollowedby

28

asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

29

ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

31

Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

32

(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

LITERATURE)CITED)

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47

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GeorgeJCBadaJZehJScottLBrownSEOharaTampSuydamR1999Ageandgrowthestimatesofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)viaasparticacid racemizationCanadianJournalofZoology775710580

GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgress inOceanography1362500262

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GrebmeierJMOverlandJEMooreSEFarleyEVCarmackECCooperLWFreyKEHelleJHMcLaughlinFAMcNuttSL2006AmajorecosystemshiftinthenorthernBeringSeaScience311146101464

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48

GrebmeierJMMooreSE Overland JEFrey KEandGradinger R2010BiologicalresponsetorecentPacificArcticseaiceretreatsEOS91(18)1610168

GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarke JTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSH LovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015aEcosystemcharacteristicsand processesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114

GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDenisenkoSGIkenKKedraMSerratosC 2015bTime0seriesbenthiccommunitycompositionandbiomassandassociatedenvironmentalcharacteristicsintheChukchiSeaduringtheRUSALCA200402012programOceanography231160133

GrebmeierJMCooperLWAshjianCABluhmBACampbellRBDuntonKEMooreJ OkkonenSSheffieldGTrefryJPasternakSY2015cPacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(PacMARS)FinalReportNorthPacificResearchBoard259pp

HannayDEDelarueJMouyXMartinBSLearyDOswaldJNVallartaJ2013 MarinemammalacousticdetectionsinthenortheasternChukchiSeaSeptember2007ndashJuly2011ContinentalShelfResearch671270146

HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015Change intheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

HillVArdynaMLeeSHVarelaDEinpressDecadaltrendsinphytoplankton productioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

preferenceandbehaviorinthenortheasternChukchiSea1982084RepIntWhale Commn362730279

MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

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Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

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Page 24: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

ofthetotalanthropogenicemissions(Mathisetal2015)TheoceanicuptakeofCO2triggersaseriesofchemicalreactionsinthesurfaceoceanthatreducespHandresultsinocean acidification(OA)InshortOAmakesseawatercorrosivetocalciumcarbonatemineralswhichmanymarineorganismsrelyonforbodystructuresHigh0latitudeoceanshave naturallylowcarbonateconcentrationssoareconsideredtobemorevulnerabletotheimpactsofOAbecauseadditionalcarbonatelossrepresentsamuchgreaterproportionalchangetothesystemInanovelstudyMathisetalprovideariskassessmentofOAimpacts tocommercialandtraditionalfisheriesfocusedonshellfishsalmonandfinfishTheresultant indexsuggeststhatwhilethenorthernBeringSeaisatmediumriskfromOAimpactsto fisheriesPacificArcticwatersnorthoftheSewardPeninsulaarecurrentlyatlowriskduelargelytoalackofdependenceonthesefoodsources

3)Lower)Trophic)Level)Communities)signals)from)direct)and)indirect)sampling

ThepredominantconceptualmodelframinghowmarineecosystemsinthePacificArctic respondtoreducedseaiceisbasedonchangesanticipatedfromashiftinpelagic0benthic coupling(Fig4)

Figure)4))Generalized)conceptual)model)depicting)the)influence)of)sea)ice)on)pelagicVbenthic)coupling)on) Pacific)Arctic)continental)shelves)

24

OnthebroadshelvesthatcomprisemuchofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemnewprimaryproductionfromsea0icealgaeandphytoplanktonbloomsfallstotheseafloortosupportrich benthiccommunities(Grebmeier2012)Asseaicethinsandretreatsearlierintheseasonitisanticipatedthatearlierandlargerphytoplanktonbloomswillswitchfromabenthic0 dominatedtoapelagic0dominatedmarineecosystemThisshiftwillcascadethroughthesystemsupportingnovelcommunitiesofsecondaryandtertiaryconsumers(zooplanktonandforagefishes)anduppertrophiclevelmarinebirdsandmammalsIndeedGrebmeieret al(2006)suggestedthatthistypeofecosystemshiftisalreadyunderwayinthemarinecommunitiesofthenorthernBeringSeaThePacificArcticisoftendescribedasabenthic0 dominatedmarineecosystemonethatdoesnotsupportalargebiomassorspeciesdiversityoffishesAdescriptionofconditionsthathavefosteredexistingbenthichotspotsoffersa solidfoundationforassessingfuturechangeswhileanaccountingoftheexistingcommunitiesofmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsprovidesastartingpointuponwhichtobuildalong0termrecord)

31Benthichotspotsandmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitats

ArecordofextantconditionsiskeytointerpretingmarineecosystemresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingnowevidentinthePacificArcticSucharecordexistsforfourbenthic lsquohotspotrsquocommunitiesinthenorthernBeringandChukchiseas(Grebmeieretal2015a)but notformarinefishesLong0termsamplingofbenthicmacrofaunalcommunitiesindicatesthatthebenthichotspotshavemaintainedconsistentlyhighbiomassforuptofourdecadesdueto reoccurrenceofseasonallyreliablemoderate0to0highwatercolumnproductioncoupledwithexportofcarbonfromoverlyingwaterstotheseafloorUppertrophiclevelbenthivorestargetpreyaggregationsineachofthehotspotsOverallbottom0upforcingbyhydrography andfoodsupplytothebenthosinfluencespersistenceandcompositionofbenthicpreywhichinturninfluencestheuppertrophiclevelspeciescompositionandseasonaloccurrence Whenconsistentlysampledintandemthesebenthos0benthivoreconnectionscanfacilitate useofUTLspeciesassentinelsofshiftsinpreycompositionandabundance(Mooreetal2014)

Sincethe2000stherehavebeenahostofArcticmarinefishsurveysintheChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasprecipitatedbybothscientificinterestintheimpactsofclimatechangeandcommercialinterestinoilandgasdevelopment(Logerwelletal2015)Resultsfrom thesesurveysprovideanovelopportunitytocompareArcticfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsrangingfromlagoonsandbeachestobenthicandpelagiccontinental shelfwatersAsynthesisofdatafromthesesurveysrevealedmoresimilaritiesthandifferencesinhabitatusebetweenthetwoseasForexamplenearshorehabitatisusedbyallageclassesofforagefishesandisalsoanurseryareaforotherspeciesinboththeChukchiand westernBeaufortseasNotablysomecommercialspeciesmaybeexpandingtheirrangenorthtothesewatersincludingchinooksalmon(Oncorhynchustshawytscha)walleyepollock (Gaduschalcogrammus)andflatfishes(Pleuronectidae)Inadditionasynthesisofinformationonrelativeabundanceandageofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)andsaffroncod

25

(Eleginusgracilis)bothkeypreyspeciesinArcticfoodwebssupportedthedevelopmentoflifehistoryanddistributionmodelsthatwillinformfutureresearchontrophicdynamicsin thePacificArcticsector

32Inferencesofmarineecosystemshiftsfromsealsseabirdsandseaducks

Additionalinformationregardingtheimpactoflsquonewnormalrsquobiophysicalconditionsonlowertrophiclevelspeciescanbeinferredfromshiftsinthedietandbodyconditionofmarine mammalsandbirdsCrawfordetal(2015)comparedthedietandconditionofringedseals(Pusahispida)andbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)harvestedintheAlaskanBeringand Chukchiseasduringhistorical(197501984)andrecent(200302012)periodsTheyfoundthe proportionoffishinthedietofbothspeciesincreasedintherecentreduced0iceperiodcomparedtothehistoricalperiodInadditionringedsealsgrewfasterhadthickerblubber andmaturedtwoyearsearlierBeardedsealshadthickerblubberintherecentperiodbut didnotmanifesttheotherchangesreportedfortheringedsealsAlthoughanumberofthe comparisonswerenotstatisticallysignificanttakentogethertheseobservationssuggestgreaterfishavailabilityintheAlaskanBering0Chukchimarineecosystemsupportinggood bodyconditionintheseals

AsinthesealpaperDivokyetal(2015)parsedalong0termdatasetintorecent(200302012)andhistorical(197501984)periodstocompareoceanographicconditionsnestlingdietandfledgingsuccessatablackguillemot(Cepphusgryllemandtii)breedingcolonyinthewestern BeaufortSeaFrom15Julyto1Septemberseaiceretreatedanaverageof18kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof958kmfromthecolonyduringthehistoricalperiodwhileinthe recentperiodiceretreataveraged98kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof5069kmSeasurfacetemperaturenearthecolonyincreasedby29⁰CbetweenthetwoperiodsWhileArcticcodcomprisedover95ofthepreyprovidedtonestlingsinthehistoricalperiodthis proportiondecreasedtolt5ofthenestlingdietduringmostyearsintherecentperiodwhendemersalsculpin(Cottidae)comprisedthemajorityofthedietTheshiftawayfrom Arcticcodwasassociatedwithafive0foldincreaseintherateofnestlingstarvationand reductionsinnestlinggrowthandfledgingmassConverselyannualadultsurvivalduringthe nonbreedingseason(September0May)showednosignificantdifferencebetweenthetwo periodssuggestingnochangeintheavailabilityofArcticcodorinoverallpreyavailabilityto blackguillemotsintheirBeringSeawinteringarea

IncontrasttoarelianceonpelagicpreyLovvornetal(2015)investigatedpotentialclimate0 relatedlimitstobenthicfeedingbyseaducksalongtheirmigrationcorridorinthenortheasternChukchiSeaKingeiders(Somateriaspectabilis)primarilyeatclams(bivalves) duringmigrationandrecentsamplinghasshownthatdenseclamassemblagesoccuronlyinspecificlocationsalongthemigrationcorridorSeaicecanpreventeidersfromreachingtheseprimefeedingsiteswithsatellitedataforApril‒May(2001‒2013)showingthataccess canvaryfrom0‒100InawarmingandincreasinglyvariableclimateaccesstobenthicfeedingsitesmaybefurthererodedbytheeffectsofwindsonunconsolidatediceThese

26

resultsunderscoretheimportanceofmaintainingarangeofbenthicfeedingareasthroughoutthemigrationcorridortoensurepreyavailabilitytotheeiderseachyear)

4)Upper)Trophic)Level)Species)marine)birds)and)mammals)as)ecosystem)sentinels

Astoppredatorsmarinebirdsandmammalsmustadapttochangesintheirhabitatsresultingfromphysicalforcingandtherebycanserveassentinelstoecosystemshifts(Mooreetal2014MooreandGulland2014)ResponsesofUTLspeciestoalteredhabitatscanbe categorizedasextrinsicincludingshiftsinrangemigratorytiming(phenology)orregionsofhighabundance(hotspots)orintrinsicincludingchangesindietbodyconditionand chemicalcomposition(Fig5)

Figure)5)Marine)birds)and)mammals)are)upper)trophic)level)(UTL))species)that)reflect)ecosystem) alterations)by)changes)in)habitat)use)(extrinsic))and)body)condition)(intrinsic))revealing)fundamental) changes)in)marine)ecosystems)

Responsesareinter0relatedsuchthatashiftinrangephenologyoruseofhotspotswillbe reflectedinchangesindietbodyconditionandchemistryItisthisconnectionthatallowsus

27

todetectecosystemreorganizationbytrackingchangesintheecologyandphysiologyofUTL speciesAlthoughtherehavebeennocoordinatedlong0termstudiesofUTLspeciesinthe PacificArcticexaminingthisconnectionasynthesisofinformationfromvisualsurveyssatellitetaggingofindividualsandyear0roundacousticdetectionsprovidesanecological foundationthatcanprovideabaselinetoinformfutureinvestigations

41Seasonaloccurrencehotspothabitatsandacousticecology

Kuletzetal(2015)depictspatialpatternsofrelativeabundanceofseabirdsandmarinemammalsinsummerandfallderivedfromsixyearsofvisualsurveysintheeasternChukchi andwesternBeaufortseasUsingstatisticalspatialanalysistoolshotspotsforseabirdswalrusandgraywhaleswereidentifiedintheChukchiSeawhilehotspotsforbowheadwhalesandsealsweredescribednearBarrowCanyonandalongtheBeaufortSeashelfand slopeHotspotsforbelugasoccurredinboththeChukchiandBeaufortseasInsummerthreehotspotsweresharedbybothseabirdsandmarinemammalsintheChukchiSeawaters offshoreWainwrightsouthofHannaShoalandatthemouthofBarrowCanyonOnlytheBarrowCanyonhotspotwasoccupiedthroughthefallSharedhotspotswerecharacterized bystrongfrontscausedbyupwellingandcurrentswhichcanservetoaggregatepreyUsingadifferentapproachCittaetal(2015)providedetailedanalysisoftheseasonalmovementsandhabitatusebyasinglespeciesthroughoutoneyearLocationsfrom54bowheadwhales (Balaenamysticetus)obtainedbysatellitetelemetryfrom200602012wereusedtoidentifya totalofsixcore0useareasintheBeaufort(3)Chukchi(1)andnorthernBering(2)seas Takentogetherthetimingofuse(phenology)andphysicalcharacteristics(oceanographyseaiceandwinds)associatedwitheachareadescribeaseasonalcircuitbythewhalesthroughareasthoughttosupportelevatedpreydensities

Passiveacousticsamplinghasbecomeacommonyear0roundtooltodetectcallingmarine mammalsinarcticseas(Mooreetal2006Staffordetal2012)Since2007therehasbeenanespeciallystrongsamplingeffortassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationinthenortheast ChukchiandwesternBeaufortseas(egHannayetal2013 httpwwwafscnoaagovnmmlcetaceanchaozphp)Theserecorderdeployments augmentalong0standingacousticstudyinthecentralBeaufortSea(Blackwelletal2007)andmorerecentdeploymentsintheBeringStraitregion(KStaffordperscomm)HeretoforeresearchersconductedeachofthesestudiesindependentlyofoneanotherClark etal(2015)presentsanovelsynthesisofthecombinedoutputfromsixresearcheffortsusingfourtypesofrecordersandavarietyofsub0samplingandanalysisschemestodescribean lsquoacousticyearrsquointhelifeofthebowheadwhaleDetectionsofbowheadcallsfrom20sitesextendingover2300kmfromthenorthernBeringSeatothesoutheastBeaufortSeawere combinedovera140monthperiod(200902010)todescribewhaleoccurrenceacrosstheir rangeThespatialandtemporalvariabilityinsoundlevelswithinthefrequencybandofbowheadwhaleswasalsoquantifiedThelowestunderwatersoundlevelsoccurredfromlate NovemberuntilMayintheChukchiSeaDuringwinter200902010singingbowheadwhaleselevatedbroadbandsoundlevelsforroughly38daysinthenorthernBeringSeafollowedby

28

asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

29

ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

31

Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

32

(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

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MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

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MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

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52

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StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

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WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

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53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

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SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

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ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

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NOAAPMELSeattleWA

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PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

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SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

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Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

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Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

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20PJanP2013(

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OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

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SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

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SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

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OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

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MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

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WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

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19PJunP2013(

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PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

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22PJanP2014(

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OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

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Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

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AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

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TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

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MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

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MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

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SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

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AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

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LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 25: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

OnthebroadshelvesthatcomprisemuchofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemnewprimaryproductionfromsea0icealgaeandphytoplanktonbloomsfallstotheseafloortosupportrich benthiccommunities(Grebmeier2012)Asseaicethinsandretreatsearlierintheseasonitisanticipatedthatearlierandlargerphytoplanktonbloomswillswitchfromabenthic0 dominatedtoapelagic0dominatedmarineecosystemThisshiftwillcascadethroughthesystemsupportingnovelcommunitiesofsecondaryandtertiaryconsumers(zooplanktonandforagefishes)anduppertrophiclevelmarinebirdsandmammalsIndeedGrebmeieret al(2006)suggestedthatthistypeofecosystemshiftisalreadyunderwayinthemarinecommunitiesofthenorthernBeringSeaThePacificArcticisoftendescribedasabenthic0 dominatedmarineecosystemonethatdoesnotsupportalargebiomassorspeciesdiversityoffishesAdescriptionofconditionsthathavefosteredexistingbenthichotspotsoffersa solidfoundationforassessingfuturechangeswhileanaccountingoftheexistingcommunitiesofmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsprovidesastartingpointuponwhichtobuildalong0termrecord)

31Benthichotspotsandmarinefishesacrossaspectrumofhabitats

ArecordofextantconditionsiskeytointerpretingmarineecosystemresponsestothenewbiophysicalforcingnowevidentinthePacificArcticSucharecordexistsforfourbenthic lsquohotspotrsquocommunitiesinthenorthernBeringandChukchiseas(Grebmeieretal2015a)but notformarinefishesLong0termsamplingofbenthicmacrofaunalcommunitiesindicatesthatthebenthichotspotshavemaintainedconsistentlyhighbiomassforuptofourdecadesdueto reoccurrenceofseasonallyreliablemoderate0to0highwatercolumnproductioncoupledwithexportofcarbonfromoverlyingwaterstotheseafloorUppertrophiclevelbenthivorestargetpreyaggregationsineachofthehotspotsOverallbottom0upforcingbyhydrography andfoodsupplytothebenthosinfluencespersistenceandcompositionofbenthicpreywhichinturninfluencestheuppertrophiclevelspeciescompositionandseasonaloccurrence Whenconsistentlysampledintandemthesebenthos0benthivoreconnectionscanfacilitate useofUTLspeciesassentinelsofshiftsinpreycompositionandabundance(Mooreetal2014)

Sincethe2000stherehavebeenahostofArcticmarinefishsurveysintheChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasprecipitatedbybothscientificinterestintheimpactsofclimatechangeandcommercialinterestinoilandgasdevelopment(Logerwelletal2015)Resultsfrom thesesurveysprovideanovelopportunitytocompareArcticfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsrangingfromlagoonsandbeachestobenthicandpelagiccontinental shelfwatersAsynthesisofdatafromthesesurveysrevealedmoresimilaritiesthandifferencesinhabitatusebetweenthetwoseasForexamplenearshorehabitatisusedbyallageclassesofforagefishesandisalsoanurseryareaforotherspeciesinboththeChukchiand westernBeaufortseasNotablysomecommercialspeciesmaybeexpandingtheirrangenorthtothesewatersincludingchinooksalmon(Oncorhynchustshawytscha)walleyepollock (Gaduschalcogrammus)andflatfishes(Pleuronectidae)Inadditionasynthesisofinformationonrelativeabundanceandageofarcticcod(Boreogadussaida)andsaffroncod

25

(Eleginusgracilis)bothkeypreyspeciesinArcticfoodwebssupportedthedevelopmentoflifehistoryanddistributionmodelsthatwillinformfutureresearchontrophicdynamicsin thePacificArcticsector

32Inferencesofmarineecosystemshiftsfromsealsseabirdsandseaducks

Additionalinformationregardingtheimpactoflsquonewnormalrsquobiophysicalconditionsonlowertrophiclevelspeciescanbeinferredfromshiftsinthedietandbodyconditionofmarine mammalsandbirdsCrawfordetal(2015)comparedthedietandconditionofringedseals(Pusahispida)andbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)harvestedintheAlaskanBeringand Chukchiseasduringhistorical(197501984)andrecent(200302012)periodsTheyfoundthe proportionoffishinthedietofbothspeciesincreasedintherecentreduced0iceperiodcomparedtothehistoricalperiodInadditionringedsealsgrewfasterhadthickerblubber andmaturedtwoyearsearlierBeardedsealshadthickerblubberintherecentperiodbut didnotmanifesttheotherchangesreportedfortheringedsealsAlthoughanumberofthe comparisonswerenotstatisticallysignificanttakentogethertheseobservationssuggestgreaterfishavailabilityintheAlaskanBering0Chukchimarineecosystemsupportinggood bodyconditionintheseals

AsinthesealpaperDivokyetal(2015)parsedalong0termdatasetintorecent(200302012)andhistorical(197501984)periodstocompareoceanographicconditionsnestlingdietandfledgingsuccessatablackguillemot(Cepphusgryllemandtii)breedingcolonyinthewestern BeaufortSeaFrom15Julyto1Septemberseaiceretreatedanaverageof18kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof958kmfromthecolonyduringthehistoricalperiodwhileinthe recentperiodiceretreataveraged98kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof5069kmSeasurfacetemperaturenearthecolonyincreasedby29⁰CbetweenthetwoperiodsWhileArcticcodcomprisedover95ofthepreyprovidedtonestlingsinthehistoricalperiodthis proportiondecreasedtolt5ofthenestlingdietduringmostyearsintherecentperiodwhendemersalsculpin(Cottidae)comprisedthemajorityofthedietTheshiftawayfrom Arcticcodwasassociatedwithafive0foldincreaseintherateofnestlingstarvationand reductionsinnestlinggrowthandfledgingmassConverselyannualadultsurvivalduringthe nonbreedingseason(September0May)showednosignificantdifferencebetweenthetwo periodssuggestingnochangeintheavailabilityofArcticcodorinoverallpreyavailabilityto blackguillemotsintheirBeringSeawinteringarea

IncontrasttoarelianceonpelagicpreyLovvornetal(2015)investigatedpotentialclimate0 relatedlimitstobenthicfeedingbyseaducksalongtheirmigrationcorridorinthenortheasternChukchiSeaKingeiders(Somateriaspectabilis)primarilyeatclams(bivalves) duringmigrationandrecentsamplinghasshownthatdenseclamassemblagesoccuronlyinspecificlocationsalongthemigrationcorridorSeaicecanpreventeidersfromreachingtheseprimefeedingsiteswithsatellitedataforApril‒May(2001‒2013)showingthataccess canvaryfrom0‒100InawarmingandincreasinglyvariableclimateaccesstobenthicfeedingsitesmaybefurthererodedbytheeffectsofwindsonunconsolidatediceThese

26

resultsunderscoretheimportanceofmaintainingarangeofbenthicfeedingareasthroughoutthemigrationcorridortoensurepreyavailabilitytotheeiderseachyear)

4)Upper)Trophic)Level)Species)marine)birds)and)mammals)as)ecosystem)sentinels

Astoppredatorsmarinebirdsandmammalsmustadapttochangesintheirhabitatsresultingfromphysicalforcingandtherebycanserveassentinelstoecosystemshifts(Mooreetal2014MooreandGulland2014)ResponsesofUTLspeciestoalteredhabitatscanbe categorizedasextrinsicincludingshiftsinrangemigratorytiming(phenology)orregionsofhighabundance(hotspots)orintrinsicincludingchangesindietbodyconditionand chemicalcomposition(Fig5)

Figure)5)Marine)birds)and)mammals)are)upper)trophic)level)(UTL))species)that)reflect)ecosystem) alterations)by)changes)in)habitat)use)(extrinsic))and)body)condition)(intrinsic))revealing)fundamental) changes)in)marine)ecosystems)

Responsesareinter0relatedsuchthatashiftinrangephenologyoruseofhotspotswillbe reflectedinchangesindietbodyconditionandchemistryItisthisconnectionthatallowsus

27

todetectecosystemreorganizationbytrackingchangesintheecologyandphysiologyofUTL speciesAlthoughtherehavebeennocoordinatedlong0termstudiesofUTLspeciesinthe PacificArcticexaminingthisconnectionasynthesisofinformationfromvisualsurveyssatellitetaggingofindividualsandyear0roundacousticdetectionsprovidesanecological foundationthatcanprovideabaselinetoinformfutureinvestigations

41Seasonaloccurrencehotspothabitatsandacousticecology

Kuletzetal(2015)depictspatialpatternsofrelativeabundanceofseabirdsandmarinemammalsinsummerandfallderivedfromsixyearsofvisualsurveysintheeasternChukchi andwesternBeaufortseasUsingstatisticalspatialanalysistoolshotspotsforseabirdswalrusandgraywhaleswereidentifiedintheChukchiSeawhilehotspotsforbowheadwhalesandsealsweredescribednearBarrowCanyonandalongtheBeaufortSeashelfand slopeHotspotsforbelugasoccurredinboththeChukchiandBeaufortseasInsummerthreehotspotsweresharedbybothseabirdsandmarinemammalsintheChukchiSeawaters offshoreWainwrightsouthofHannaShoalandatthemouthofBarrowCanyonOnlytheBarrowCanyonhotspotwasoccupiedthroughthefallSharedhotspotswerecharacterized bystrongfrontscausedbyupwellingandcurrentswhichcanservetoaggregatepreyUsingadifferentapproachCittaetal(2015)providedetailedanalysisoftheseasonalmovementsandhabitatusebyasinglespeciesthroughoutoneyearLocationsfrom54bowheadwhales (Balaenamysticetus)obtainedbysatellitetelemetryfrom200602012wereusedtoidentifya totalofsixcore0useareasintheBeaufort(3)Chukchi(1)andnorthernBering(2)seas Takentogetherthetimingofuse(phenology)andphysicalcharacteristics(oceanographyseaiceandwinds)associatedwitheachareadescribeaseasonalcircuitbythewhalesthroughareasthoughttosupportelevatedpreydensities

Passiveacousticsamplinghasbecomeacommonyear0roundtooltodetectcallingmarine mammalsinarcticseas(Mooreetal2006Staffordetal2012)Since2007therehasbeenanespeciallystrongsamplingeffortassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationinthenortheast ChukchiandwesternBeaufortseas(egHannayetal2013 httpwwwafscnoaagovnmmlcetaceanchaozphp)Theserecorderdeployments augmentalong0standingacousticstudyinthecentralBeaufortSea(Blackwelletal2007)andmorerecentdeploymentsintheBeringStraitregion(KStaffordperscomm)HeretoforeresearchersconductedeachofthesestudiesindependentlyofoneanotherClark etal(2015)presentsanovelsynthesisofthecombinedoutputfromsixresearcheffortsusingfourtypesofrecordersandavarietyofsub0samplingandanalysisschemestodescribean lsquoacousticyearrsquointhelifeofthebowheadwhaleDetectionsofbowheadcallsfrom20sitesextendingover2300kmfromthenorthernBeringSeatothesoutheastBeaufortSeawere combinedovera140monthperiod(200902010)todescribewhaleoccurrenceacrosstheir rangeThespatialandtemporalvariabilityinsoundlevelswithinthefrequencybandofbowheadwhaleswasalsoquantifiedThelowestunderwatersoundlevelsoccurredfromlate NovemberuntilMayintheChukchiSeaDuringwinter200902010singingbowheadwhaleselevatedbroadbandsoundlevelsforroughly38daysinthenorthernBeringSeafollowedby

28

asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

29

ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

31

Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

32

(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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46

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47

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FeelyRADoneySCCooleySR2009Oceanacidificationpresentconditionsandfuture changesinahigh0CO2worldOceanography2236047

FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015DivergentpatternsofrecentseaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049

GeorgeJCBadaJZehJScottLBrownSEOharaTampSuydamR1999Ageandgrowthestimatesofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)viaasparticacid racemizationCanadianJournalofZoology775710580

GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgress inOceanography1362500262

GilesKALaxonSWRidoutALWinghamDJBaconS2012WesternArcticOceanfreshwaterstorageincreasedbywind0drivenspin0upoftheBeaufortGyreNature Geoscience51940197

GrebmeierJMOverlandJEMooreSEFarleyEVCarmackECCooperLWFreyKEHelleJHMcLaughlinFAMcNuttSL2006AmajorecosystemshiftinthenorthernBeringSeaScience311146101464

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GrebmeierJMMooreSE Overland JEFrey KEandGradinger R2010BiologicalresponsetorecentPacificArcticseaiceretreatsEOS91(18)1610168

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GrebmeierJMCooperLWAshjianCABluhmBACampbellRBDuntonKEMooreJ OkkonenSSheffieldGTrefryJPasternakSY2015cPacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(PacMARS)FinalReportNorthPacificResearchBoard259pp

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HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015Change intheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

HillVArdynaMLeeSHVarelaDEinpressDecadaltrendsinphytoplankton productioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

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MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

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OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

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SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

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52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

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LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

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    • Caption
Page 26: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

(Eleginusgracilis)bothkeypreyspeciesinArcticfoodwebssupportedthedevelopmentoflifehistoryanddistributionmodelsthatwillinformfutureresearchontrophicdynamicsin thePacificArcticsector

32Inferencesofmarineecosystemshiftsfromsealsseabirdsandseaducks

Additionalinformationregardingtheimpactoflsquonewnormalrsquobiophysicalconditionsonlowertrophiclevelspeciescanbeinferredfromshiftsinthedietandbodyconditionofmarine mammalsandbirdsCrawfordetal(2015)comparedthedietandconditionofringedseals(Pusahispida)andbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)harvestedintheAlaskanBeringand Chukchiseasduringhistorical(197501984)andrecent(200302012)periodsTheyfoundthe proportionoffishinthedietofbothspeciesincreasedintherecentreduced0iceperiodcomparedtothehistoricalperiodInadditionringedsealsgrewfasterhadthickerblubber andmaturedtwoyearsearlierBeardedsealshadthickerblubberintherecentperiodbut didnotmanifesttheotherchangesreportedfortheringedsealsAlthoughanumberofthe comparisonswerenotstatisticallysignificanttakentogethertheseobservationssuggestgreaterfishavailabilityintheAlaskanBering0Chukchimarineecosystemsupportinggood bodyconditionintheseals

AsinthesealpaperDivokyetal(2015)parsedalong0termdatasetintorecent(200302012)andhistorical(197501984)periodstocompareoceanographicconditionsnestlingdietandfledgingsuccessatablackguillemot(Cepphusgryllemandtii)breedingcolonyinthewestern BeaufortSeaFrom15Julyto1Septemberseaiceretreatedanaverageof18kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof958kmfromthecolonyduringthehistoricalperiodwhileinthe recentperiodiceretreataveraged98kmperdaytoanaveragedistanceof5069kmSeasurfacetemperaturenearthecolonyincreasedby29⁰CbetweenthetwoperiodsWhileArcticcodcomprisedover95ofthepreyprovidedtonestlingsinthehistoricalperiodthis proportiondecreasedtolt5ofthenestlingdietduringmostyearsintherecentperiodwhendemersalsculpin(Cottidae)comprisedthemajorityofthedietTheshiftawayfrom Arcticcodwasassociatedwithafive0foldincreaseintherateofnestlingstarvationand reductionsinnestlinggrowthandfledgingmassConverselyannualadultsurvivalduringthe nonbreedingseason(September0May)showednosignificantdifferencebetweenthetwo periodssuggestingnochangeintheavailabilityofArcticcodorinoverallpreyavailabilityto blackguillemotsintheirBeringSeawinteringarea

IncontrasttoarelianceonpelagicpreyLovvornetal(2015)investigatedpotentialclimate0 relatedlimitstobenthicfeedingbyseaducksalongtheirmigrationcorridorinthenortheasternChukchiSeaKingeiders(Somateriaspectabilis)primarilyeatclams(bivalves) duringmigrationandrecentsamplinghasshownthatdenseclamassemblagesoccuronlyinspecificlocationsalongthemigrationcorridorSeaicecanpreventeidersfromreachingtheseprimefeedingsiteswithsatellitedataforApril‒May(2001‒2013)showingthataccess canvaryfrom0‒100InawarmingandincreasinglyvariableclimateaccesstobenthicfeedingsitesmaybefurthererodedbytheeffectsofwindsonunconsolidatediceThese

26

resultsunderscoretheimportanceofmaintainingarangeofbenthicfeedingareasthroughoutthemigrationcorridortoensurepreyavailabilitytotheeiderseachyear)

4)Upper)Trophic)Level)Species)marine)birds)and)mammals)as)ecosystem)sentinels

Astoppredatorsmarinebirdsandmammalsmustadapttochangesintheirhabitatsresultingfromphysicalforcingandtherebycanserveassentinelstoecosystemshifts(Mooreetal2014MooreandGulland2014)ResponsesofUTLspeciestoalteredhabitatscanbe categorizedasextrinsicincludingshiftsinrangemigratorytiming(phenology)orregionsofhighabundance(hotspots)orintrinsicincludingchangesindietbodyconditionand chemicalcomposition(Fig5)

Figure)5)Marine)birds)and)mammals)are)upper)trophic)level)(UTL))species)that)reflect)ecosystem) alterations)by)changes)in)habitat)use)(extrinsic))and)body)condition)(intrinsic))revealing)fundamental) changes)in)marine)ecosystems)

Responsesareinter0relatedsuchthatashiftinrangephenologyoruseofhotspotswillbe reflectedinchangesindietbodyconditionandchemistryItisthisconnectionthatallowsus

27

todetectecosystemreorganizationbytrackingchangesintheecologyandphysiologyofUTL speciesAlthoughtherehavebeennocoordinatedlong0termstudiesofUTLspeciesinthe PacificArcticexaminingthisconnectionasynthesisofinformationfromvisualsurveyssatellitetaggingofindividualsandyear0roundacousticdetectionsprovidesanecological foundationthatcanprovideabaselinetoinformfutureinvestigations

41Seasonaloccurrencehotspothabitatsandacousticecology

Kuletzetal(2015)depictspatialpatternsofrelativeabundanceofseabirdsandmarinemammalsinsummerandfallderivedfromsixyearsofvisualsurveysintheeasternChukchi andwesternBeaufortseasUsingstatisticalspatialanalysistoolshotspotsforseabirdswalrusandgraywhaleswereidentifiedintheChukchiSeawhilehotspotsforbowheadwhalesandsealsweredescribednearBarrowCanyonandalongtheBeaufortSeashelfand slopeHotspotsforbelugasoccurredinboththeChukchiandBeaufortseasInsummerthreehotspotsweresharedbybothseabirdsandmarinemammalsintheChukchiSeawaters offshoreWainwrightsouthofHannaShoalandatthemouthofBarrowCanyonOnlytheBarrowCanyonhotspotwasoccupiedthroughthefallSharedhotspotswerecharacterized bystrongfrontscausedbyupwellingandcurrentswhichcanservetoaggregatepreyUsingadifferentapproachCittaetal(2015)providedetailedanalysisoftheseasonalmovementsandhabitatusebyasinglespeciesthroughoutoneyearLocationsfrom54bowheadwhales (Balaenamysticetus)obtainedbysatellitetelemetryfrom200602012wereusedtoidentifya totalofsixcore0useareasintheBeaufort(3)Chukchi(1)andnorthernBering(2)seas Takentogetherthetimingofuse(phenology)andphysicalcharacteristics(oceanographyseaiceandwinds)associatedwitheachareadescribeaseasonalcircuitbythewhalesthroughareasthoughttosupportelevatedpreydensities

Passiveacousticsamplinghasbecomeacommonyear0roundtooltodetectcallingmarine mammalsinarcticseas(Mooreetal2006Staffordetal2012)Since2007therehasbeenanespeciallystrongsamplingeffortassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationinthenortheast ChukchiandwesternBeaufortseas(egHannayetal2013 httpwwwafscnoaagovnmmlcetaceanchaozphp)Theserecorderdeployments augmentalong0standingacousticstudyinthecentralBeaufortSea(Blackwelletal2007)andmorerecentdeploymentsintheBeringStraitregion(KStaffordperscomm)HeretoforeresearchersconductedeachofthesestudiesindependentlyofoneanotherClark etal(2015)presentsanovelsynthesisofthecombinedoutputfromsixresearcheffortsusingfourtypesofrecordersandavarietyofsub0samplingandanalysisschemestodescribean lsquoacousticyearrsquointhelifeofthebowheadwhaleDetectionsofbowheadcallsfrom20sitesextendingover2300kmfromthenorthernBeringSeatothesoutheastBeaufortSeawere combinedovera140monthperiod(200902010)todescribewhaleoccurrenceacrosstheir rangeThespatialandtemporalvariabilityinsoundlevelswithinthefrequencybandofbowheadwhaleswasalsoquantifiedThelowestunderwatersoundlevelsoccurredfromlate NovemberuntilMayintheChukchiSeaDuringwinter200902010singingbowheadwhaleselevatedbroadbandsoundlevelsforroughly38daysinthenorthernBeringSeafollowedby

28

asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

29

ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

31

Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

32

(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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46

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47

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FeelyRADoneySCCooleySR2009Oceanacidificationpresentconditionsandfuture changesinahigh0CO2worldOceanography2236047

FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015DivergentpatternsofrecentseaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049

GeorgeJCBadaJZehJScottLBrownSEOharaTampSuydamR1999Ageandgrowthestimatesofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)viaasparticacid racemizationCanadianJournalofZoology775710580

GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgress inOceanography1362500262

GilesKALaxonSWRidoutALWinghamDJBaconS2012WesternArcticOceanfreshwaterstorageincreasedbywind0drivenspin0upoftheBeaufortGyreNature Geoscience51940197

GrebmeierJMOverlandJEMooreSEFarleyEVCarmackECCooperLWFreyKEHelleJHMcLaughlinFAMcNuttSL2006AmajorecosystemshiftinthenorthernBeringSeaScience311146101464

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GrebmeierJMMooreSE Overland JEFrey KEandGradinger R2010BiologicalresponsetorecentPacificArcticseaiceretreatsEOS91(18)1610168

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GrebmeierJMCooperLWAshjianCABluhmBACampbellRBDuntonKEMooreJ OkkonenSSheffieldGTrefryJPasternakSY2015cPacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(PacMARS)FinalReportNorthPacificResearchBoard259pp

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HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015Change intheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

HillVArdynaMLeeSHVarelaDEinpressDecadaltrendsinphytoplankton productioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

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MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

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OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

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SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

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52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

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Wieslaw

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NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

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Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

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Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

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Brenda(Norcross(

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KaktovikAK

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Scott(Raborn(

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PinevilleLA

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John(Trefry(

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Rebecca(Woodgate(

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SeattleWA

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57

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MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

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AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

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20PJanP2013(

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AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

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20PJanP2013(

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ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

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responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

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26PMarP2013(

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SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

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Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

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AK

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

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WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

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Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 27: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

resultsunderscoretheimportanceofmaintainingarangeofbenthicfeedingareasthroughoutthemigrationcorridortoensurepreyavailabilitytotheeiderseachyear)

4)Upper)Trophic)Level)Species)marine)birds)and)mammals)as)ecosystem)sentinels

Astoppredatorsmarinebirdsandmammalsmustadapttochangesintheirhabitatsresultingfromphysicalforcingandtherebycanserveassentinelstoecosystemshifts(Mooreetal2014MooreandGulland2014)ResponsesofUTLspeciestoalteredhabitatscanbe categorizedasextrinsicincludingshiftsinrangemigratorytiming(phenology)orregionsofhighabundance(hotspots)orintrinsicincludingchangesindietbodyconditionand chemicalcomposition(Fig5)

Figure)5)Marine)birds)and)mammals)are)upper)trophic)level)(UTL))species)that)reflect)ecosystem) alterations)by)changes)in)habitat)use)(extrinsic))and)body)condition)(intrinsic))revealing)fundamental) changes)in)marine)ecosystems)

Responsesareinter0relatedsuchthatashiftinrangephenologyoruseofhotspotswillbe reflectedinchangesindietbodyconditionandchemistryItisthisconnectionthatallowsus

27

todetectecosystemreorganizationbytrackingchangesintheecologyandphysiologyofUTL speciesAlthoughtherehavebeennocoordinatedlong0termstudiesofUTLspeciesinthe PacificArcticexaminingthisconnectionasynthesisofinformationfromvisualsurveyssatellitetaggingofindividualsandyear0roundacousticdetectionsprovidesanecological foundationthatcanprovideabaselinetoinformfutureinvestigations

41Seasonaloccurrencehotspothabitatsandacousticecology

Kuletzetal(2015)depictspatialpatternsofrelativeabundanceofseabirdsandmarinemammalsinsummerandfallderivedfromsixyearsofvisualsurveysintheeasternChukchi andwesternBeaufortseasUsingstatisticalspatialanalysistoolshotspotsforseabirdswalrusandgraywhaleswereidentifiedintheChukchiSeawhilehotspotsforbowheadwhalesandsealsweredescribednearBarrowCanyonandalongtheBeaufortSeashelfand slopeHotspotsforbelugasoccurredinboththeChukchiandBeaufortseasInsummerthreehotspotsweresharedbybothseabirdsandmarinemammalsintheChukchiSeawaters offshoreWainwrightsouthofHannaShoalandatthemouthofBarrowCanyonOnlytheBarrowCanyonhotspotwasoccupiedthroughthefallSharedhotspotswerecharacterized bystrongfrontscausedbyupwellingandcurrentswhichcanservetoaggregatepreyUsingadifferentapproachCittaetal(2015)providedetailedanalysisoftheseasonalmovementsandhabitatusebyasinglespeciesthroughoutoneyearLocationsfrom54bowheadwhales (Balaenamysticetus)obtainedbysatellitetelemetryfrom200602012wereusedtoidentifya totalofsixcore0useareasintheBeaufort(3)Chukchi(1)andnorthernBering(2)seas Takentogetherthetimingofuse(phenology)andphysicalcharacteristics(oceanographyseaiceandwinds)associatedwitheachareadescribeaseasonalcircuitbythewhalesthroughareasthoughttosupportelevatedpreydensities

Passiveacousticsamplinghasbecomeacommonyear0roundtooltodetectcallingmarine mammalsinarcticseas(Mooreetal2006Staffordetal2012)Since2007therehasbeenanespeciallystrongsamplingeffortassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationinthenortheast ChukchiandwesternBeaufortseas(egHannayetal2013 httpwwwafscnoaagovnmmlcetaceanchaozphp)Theserecorderdeployments augmentalong0standingacousticstudyinthecentralBeaufortSea(Blackwelletal2007)andmorerecentdeploymentsintheBeringStraitregion(KStaffordperscomm)HeretoforeresearchersconductedeachofthesestudiesindependentlyofoneanotherClark etal(2015)presentsanovelsynthesisofthecombinedoutputfromsixresearcheffortsusingfourtypesofrecordersandavarietyofsub0samplingandanalysisschemestodescribean lsquoacousticyearrsquointhelifeofthebowheadwhaleDetectionsofbowheadcallsfrom20sitesextendingover2300kmfromthenorthernBeringSeatothesoutheastBeaufortSeawere combinedovera140monthperiod(200902010)todescribewhaleoccurrenceacrosstheir rangeThespatialandtemporalvariabilityinsoundlevelswithinthefrequencybandofbowheadwhaleswasalsoquantifiedThelowestunderwatersoundlevelsoccurredfromlate NovemberuntilMayintheChukchiSeaDuringwinter200902010singingbowheadwhaleselevatedbroadbandsoundlevelsforroughly38daysinthenorthernBeringSeafollowedby

28

asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

29

ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

31

Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

32

(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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47

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GeorgeJCBadaJZehJScottLBrownSEOharaTampSuydamR1999Ageandgrowthestimatesofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)viaasparticacid racemizationCanadianJournalofZoology775710580

GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgress inOceanography1362500262

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GrebmeierJMMooreSE Overland JEFrey KEandGradinger R2010BiologicalresponsetorecentPacificArcticseaiceretreatsEOS91(18)1610168

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HillVArdynaMLeeSHVarelaDEinpressDecadaltrendsinphytoplankton productioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

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MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

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SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 28: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

todetectecosystemreorganizationbytrackingchangesintheecologyandphysiologyofUTL speciesAlthoughtherehavebeennocoordinatedlong0termstudiesofUTLspeciesinthe PacificArcticexaminingthisconnectionasynthesisofinformationfromvisualsurveyssatellitetaggingofindividualsandyear0roundacousticdetectionsprovidesanecological foundationthatcanprovideabaselinetoinformfutureinvestigations

41Seasonaloccurrencehotspothabitatsandacousticecology

Kuletzetal(2015)depictspatialpatternsofrelativeabundanceofseabirdsandmarinemammalsinsummerandfallderivedfromsixyearsofvisualsurveysintheeasternChukchi andwesternBeaufortseasUsingstatisticalspatialanalysistoolshotspotsforseabirdswalrusandgraywhaleswereidentifiedintheChukchiSeawhilehotspotsforbowheadwhalesandsealsweredescribednearBarrowCanyonandalongtheBeaufortSeashelfand slopeHotspotsforbelugasoccurredinboththeChukchiandBeaufortseasInsummerthreehotspotsweresharedbybothseabirdsandmarinemammalsintheChukchiSeawaters offshoreWainwrightsouthofHannaShoalandatthemouthofBarrowCanyonOnlytheBarrowCanyonhotspotwasoccupiedthroughthefallSharedhotspotswerecharacterized bystrongfrontscausedbyupwellingandcurrentswhichcanservetoaggregatepreyUsingadifferentapproachCittaetal(2015)providedetailedanalysisoftheseasonalmovementsandhabitatusebyasinglespeciesthroughoutoneyearLocationsfrom54bowheadwhales (Balaenamysticetus)obtainedbysatellitetelemetryfrom200602012wereusedtoidentifya totalofsixcore0useareasintheBeaufort(3)Chukchi(1)andnorthernBering(2)seas Takentogetherthetimingofuse(phenology)andphysicalcharacteristics(oceanographyseaiceandwinds)associatedwitheachareadescribeaseasonalcircuitbythewhalesthroughareasthoughttosupportelevatedpreydensities

Passiveacousticsamplinghasbecomeacommonyear0roundtooltodetectcallingmarine mammalsinarcticseas(Mooreetal2006Staffordetal2012)Since2007therehasbeenanespeciallystrongsamplingeffortassociatedwithoilandgasexplorationinthenortheast ChukchiandwesternBeaufortseas(egHannayetal2013 httpwwwafscnoaagovnmmlcetaceanchaozphp)Theserecorderdeployments augmentalong0standingacousticstudyinthecentralBeaufortSea(Blackwelletal2007)andmorerecentdeploymentsintheBeringStraitregion(KStaffordperscomm)HeretoforeresearchersconductedeachofthesestudiesindependentlyofoneanotherClark etal(2015)presentsanovelsynthesisofthecombinedoutputfromsixresearcheffortsusingfourtypesofrecordersandavarietyofsub0samplingandanalysisschemestodescribean lsquoacousticyearrsquointhelifeofthebowheadwhaleDetectionsofbowheadcallsfrom20sitesextendingover2300kmfromthenorthernBeringSeatothesoutheastBeaufortSeawere combinedovera140monthperiod(200902010)todescribewhaleoccurrenceacrosstheir rangeThespatialandtemporalvariabilityinsoundlevelswithinthefrequencybandofbowheadwhaleswasalsoquantifiedThelowestunderwatersoundlevelsoccurredfromlate NovemberuntilMayintheChukchiSeaDuringwinter200902010singingbowheadwhaleselevatedbroadbandsoundlevelsforroughly38daysinthenorthernBeringSeafollowedby

28

asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

29

ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

31

Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

32

(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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ArrigoKRand vanDijkenGL2015ContinuedincreasesinArcticOceanprimaryproductionProgressinOceanography13660070

AshjianCJBraund SRCampbell RGGeorgeJC Kruse JMaslowski WMooreSE Nicolson CROkkonen SR SherrBF Sherr EBandSpitz Y2010Climate variabilityoceanographybowheadwhaledistributionandInupiatsubsistence whalingnearBarrowAlaskaArctic63(2)1790194

BerlineLSpitzYH AshjianCJ CampbellRG Maslowski WandMoore SE2008 EuphausiidtransportintheWesternArcticOceanMarineEcologyProgressSeries360 1630178

BlackwellSBRichardsonWJGreeneCRStreeverB2007Bowheadwhale(Balaena mysticetus)migrationandcallingbehaviorintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaautumn2001004 anacousticlocalizationstudyArctic602550270

BlockBAJonsenIDJorgensenSJ+18co0authors2011TrackingapexmarinepredatormovementsinadynamicoceanNature475doi101038nature10082

BluhmBACoyle KOKonar BandHighsmith R2007Highgraywhalerelativeabundances associatedwithanoceanographicfrontinthesouth0centralChukchiSeaDeepSea ResearchII291902933

BondNStabenoPNappJinpressFlowpatternsintheChukchiSeabasedonanoceanreanalysisJunethroughOctober197902014

CarmackEDBarberJChristensenRMacdonaldBRudelsandESakshaug2006Climatevariabilityandphysicalforcingofthefoodwebsandcarbonbudgetonpanarcticshelves ProgressinOceanography711450181

CarmackEWassmannP2006Foodwebsandphysical0biologicalcouplingonpan0Arctic shelvesunifyingconceptsandcomprehensiveperspectivesProgressinOceanography714460477

CarmackEWinsorPWilliamsW2015ThecontiguouspanarcticRiverineCoastal DomainaunifyingconceptProgressinOceanography13913023

46

CittaJJQuakenbushLTOkkonenSRDruckenmillerMLMaslowskiWClement0 KinneyJGeorgeJCBrowerHSmallRJAshjianCJHarwoodLAHeide0Joslashrgensen MP2015Ecologicalcharacteristicsofcore0useareasusedbyBeringndashChukchindashBeaufort(BCB)bowheadwhales2006ndash2012ProgressinOceanography1362010222

CittaJJOkkonenSRQuakenbushLTMaslowskiWOsinskiRGeorgeJCSmallRJ BrowerJrHHeide0JoslashrgensenMPHarwoodLAinpressaOceanographiccharacteristicsassociatedwithautumnmovementsofbowheadwhalesintheChukchi Sea

CittaJJQuakenbushLTLondonJMFrostKJFischbachASLowryLFOrsquoCorry0Crowe GJayCVCrawfordJABovengPLCameronMVonDuykeALNelsonMHarwoodLARichardPSuydamRHeide0JoslashrgensenMPHobbsRCLitovkaDI GeorgeJCKellyBPSmithTGKennedyAGoodwinJOrrJGrayTinpressbOverlapofmarinemammalrangesandmulti0speciescoreuseareasasynthesisof satellitetelemetrydatainthePacificArctic

ClarkCWBerchokCLBlackwellSBHannayDEJonesJPonirakisDStaffordKM 2015AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesintheBeringChukchiand BeaufortseasProgressinOceanography1362230240

CooperLWGrebmeierJMinpressDepositionpatternsontheChukchishelfusingradionuclideinventoriesinrelationtosurfacesedimentcharacteristics

CrawfordJAQuakenbushLTCittaJJ2015Acomparisonofringedandbeardedsealdiet conditionandproductivitybetweenhistorical(1975ndash1984)andrecent(2003ndash2012)periodsintheAlaskanBeringandChukchiseasProgressinOceanography1361330150

CrossJNMathisJTPickartRSBatesNRinpressFormationandtransportofcorrosive waterinthePacificArcticregion

DanielsonSLWeingartnerTJHedstromKSAagaardKWoodgateRCurchitserEStabenoPJ2014Coupledwind0forcedcontrolsoftheBering0Chukchishelfcirculation andtheBeringStraitthroughflowEkmantransportcontinentalshelfwavesand variationsofthePacific0ArcticseasurfaceheightgradientProgressinOceanography12540061

DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarcticsea iceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161

DruckenmillerMLCittaJJFergusonMCClarkeJTGeorgeJCQuakenbushLinpressTrendsinsea0icecoverwithinbowheadwhalehabitatsinthePacificArctic

47

DuntonKHGrebmeierJM andTrefry JH2017HannaShoalAnintegrativestudyofaHighArcticmarineecosystemintheChukchiSeaDeepSeaResearchPartIIDOI 101016jdsr2201709001

Dunton KH Grebmeier JM and Trefry JH2014ThebenthicecosystemofthenortheasternChukchiSeaanoverviewofitsuniquebiogeochemistryandbiological characteristicsDeep0SeaResearchII102108

ErbeCReichmuthCCuninghamKLukeKDoolingR2015CommunicationmaskinginmarinemammalsareviewandresearchstrategyMarinePollutionBulletin httpdxdoiorg101016jmarpolbul201512007

EllisonWTRaccaRClarkCWStreeverBFrankelASFleishmanEAnglissRBergerJKettenDGuerraMLeuMMcKennaMSformoTSouthallBSuydamR ThomasL2016Modelingtheaggregatedexposureandresponsesofbowheadwhales BalaenamysticetustomultiplesourcesofanthropogenicunderwatersoundEndangeredSpeciesResearch30950108

FeelyRADoneySCCooleySR2009Oceanacidificationpresentconditionsandfuture changesinahigh0CO2worldOceanography2236047

FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015DivergentpatternsofrecentseaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049

GeorgeJCBadaJZehJScottLBrownSEOharaTampSuydamR1999Ageandgrowthestimatesofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)viaasparticacid racemizationCanadianJournalofZoology775710580

GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgress inOceanography1362500262

GilesKALaxonSWRidoutALWinghamDJBaconS2012WesternArcticOceanfreshwaterstorageincreasedbywind0drivenspin0upoftheBeaufortGyreNature Geoscience51940197

GrebmeierJMOverlandJEMooreSEFarleyEVCarmackECCooperLWFreyKEHelleJHMcLaughlinFAMcNuttSL2006AmajorecosystemshiftinthenorthernBeringSeaScience311146101464

GrebmeierJM2012ShiftingpatternsoflifeinthePacificArcticandsub0arcticseasAnnual ReviewofMarineScience41610166

GrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(2014)ThePacificArcticRegionAnIntroductionIn GrebmeierJMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionSpringerDordrecht

48

GrebmeierJMMooreSE Overland JEFrey KEandGradinger R2010BiologicalresponsetorecentPacificArcticseaiceretreatsEOS91(18)1610168

GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarke JTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSH LovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015aEcosystemcharacteristicsand processesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114

GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDenisenkoSGIkenKKedraMSerratosC 2015bTime0seriesbenthiccommunitycompositionandbiomassandassociatedenvironmentalcharacteristicsintheChukchiSeaduringtheRUSALCA200402012programOceanography231160133

GrebmeierJMCooperLWAshjianCABluhmBACampbellRBDuntonKEMooreJ OkkonenSSheffieldGTrefryJPasternakSY2015cPacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(PacMARS)FinalReportNorthPacificResearchBoard259pp

HannayDEDelarueJMouyXMartinBSLearyDOswaldJNVallartaJ2013 MarinemammalacousticdetectionsinthenortheasternChukchiSeaSeptember2007ndashJuly2011ContinentalShelfResearch671270146

HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015Change intheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

HillVArdynaMLeeSHVarelaDEinpressDecadaltrendsinphytoplankton productioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

preferenceandbehaviorinthenortheasternChukchiSea1982084RepIntWhale Commn362730279

MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

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Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

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  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 29: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

asecondmonth0longperiodofelevatedsoundlevelsduetosingingbybeardedsealsHigh0windeventsalsoresultedin205dayperiodsofelevatedsoundlevelsevidentonmultiple recordershundredsofmilesapartAlthoughtherewerefewseismicsurveysduringthe140monthperiodairgunsoundsweredetectedintheChukchiSeainlatesummer2009roughly 700kmawayfromtheseismicsurveyunderwayintheeasternBeaufortSea

InasecondpaperdescribingtheacousticecologyofmarinemammalsinthePacificArcticMacIntyreetal(2015)investigatedbeardedsealcallingactivityinrelationtovariabilityin sea0icecoverAcousticdatawereanalyzedfromninerecordinglocationsextendingfromtheBeringtothewesternBeaufortSeaBeardedsealswerevocallyactivenearlyyear0roundin theBeaufortandChukchiseaswithpeakactivityoccurringduringthespringtimemating seasonConverselybeardedsealcallingactivitylastedonlyaboutfivemonthsintheBeringSeaagainwithamating0seasonpeakinthespringInallareascallingactivitywaspositively correlatedwithsea0icecover(plt001)Theseresultssuggestthatlossesinseaicemaynegativelyimpactbeardedsealsbothbylossofhaul0outhabitatandbyalteringthetemporalfeaturesofcallingforbeardedsealsinthePacificArcticsector

42Dietandbodycondition

ForabowheadwhalechangesassociatedwiththenewbiophysicalconditionsinthePacific ArcticmaybeagoodbumpinalongroadBowheadwhalescanliveforacenturyormorewithafewwhalesestimatedtohavelivedover200years(Georgeetal1999)TheBering0 Chukchi0Beaufort(BCB)populationisstillrecoveringinnumberfromroughly170yearsofcommercialwhalingwhichendedaround1920soresponsesbythisspeciestorecent changesinthemarineecosystemmustbeinterpretedinthatcontextGeorgeetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweenbodyconditionofBCBbowheadwhalesandinter0annualvariabilityinsummertimeenvironmentalconditions(seasonalsea0icecoverandwindstress) forwhalesharvestedbyAlaskanhuntersfrom198902011Duringthisperiodtherewasa significantincreaseinaxillarygirth(fatness)associatedwiththereductioninseaiceand shiftsinwindstresstopatternsassociatedwithupwellingalongtheslopeandshelfoftheBeaufortSeaSpecificallystrongpositivecorrelationsweredescribedbetweenwhalegirth andlate0summeropenwaterfractionintheBeaufortSeaandwithopenwaterandupwelling0favorablewindsinareasoftheMackenzieDeltaandwaterswestofBanksIslandWhether duetoincreasedsecondaryproductivityassociatedwithupwellingorduetoalongerfeeding periodassociatedwithreducedicecovertheimprovedbodyconditionofwhalesintheBCBbowheadpopulationsuggesttheyarefindingincreasedaccesstopreyinthenewnormal PacificArctic

TheutilityoflookingtoUTLspeciesasecosystemsentinelsisfurtherexploredinHarwoodetal(2015)wherebodyconditionoffivepredatorsmonitoredfromharvestsintheBeaufortSeaoverthepast204decadesindicatethatallhavebeenaffectedbybiophysicalchangesin themarineecosystemImprovedbodyconditionisdescribedforArcticchar(Salvelinus alpinus)andsub0adultbowheadwhalesprimarilyassociatedwiththeextentandpersistence

29

ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

30

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

31

Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

32

(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

preferenceandbehaviorinthenortheasternChukchiSea1982084RepIntWhale Commn362730279

MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

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26PJanP2016(

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OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

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TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

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ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

24(Jan(2017(

VanPelt

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 30: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

ofseaiceConverselythreespecieswhichlikelyfeedprimarilyonarcticcod(ringedsealbelugaandblackguillemotchicks)showeddeclinesinconditiongrowthandorproduction duringthesameperiodAlthoughtheproximatecausesofthesecontrastingchangesareunknowntheyarelikelymediatedbyanupwardtrendinsecondaryproductivity accompaniedbyadowntrendintheavailabilityofforagefishespeciallyArcticcodakeyspeciesinarcticfoodwebsNotablythereporteddeclineinbodyconditionforringedseals contrastwiththechangesreportedinCrawfordetal(2015)butthismaybedueto differencesinpreyavailabilityinsub0regionsofthePacificArcticwheretheharvestedsealswerefeedingietheeasternBeaufortSea(Harwoodetal2015)andtheBering0Chukchi (Crawfordetal2015)Similarcontrastsinsizeandbodyconditionforpolarbears(Ursus maritimus)wererecentlydescribedforanimalsfromtheChukchiSea(good)andtheBeaufort Sea(poor)populations(Rodeetal2013)IndeedHarwoodetal(2015)advocatetheinclusionofmultipleUTLspeciesinthesamplingdesignoffuturemarineecosystemresearchprogramsatecologicallyrelevantspatialandtemporalscales

)

5))Biophysics)and)marine)ecology)of)the)Pacific)Arctic)region))))

ThebiophysicsandmarineecologyofthePacificArcticregionisastudyincontrastsresultingfromdifferingprocessesthatoccuroverthebroadandshallowinflowshelvesofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseascomparedtothenarrowinteriorshelfsteepslopeanddeepbasinof theBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassmann(2006)provideapan0Arcticoverviewontheroleofshelvesinguidingoceanographicprocessesandpromoteshelfgeographyasaunifying conceptwithregardtolinkingphysicalprocessestofoodwebsUsingthisconceptCarmackandWassmann(2006)identifiedthePacificArcticregionasoneoffourcontiguousdomainscomprisingthepan0Arctictheotherthreearetheseasonalicezonedomainthepan0Arctic marginal(shelf0breakandslope)domainandtheriverinecoastaldomainAsdescribedinWoodetal(2015)hydrographyinthePacificArcticregionisdefinedbyPacificwaters enteringtheChukchithroughBeringStraitwarmingastheyareadvectedthroughthe ChukchiSeaandcirculatingatdepthslt200mwithintheBeaufortgyreoftheCanadaBasin Theentrapmentofthisinflowwithinthegyreincreasesthevolumeoffreshwaterandintensifiesstratificationwiththewarmer0saltierAtlanticwaterbelow

Theroleofseaiceinregulatingpelagic0benthiccoupling(seeFig4)isthefoundationalmodel regardingthestructureoffoodwebsonthebroadin0flowshelvesIndeedthebiophysicsand ecologyofbenthiccommunitiesinthePacificArcticisfullydescribedinGrebmeieretal(2015a)HowevernutrientsandexpatriatezooplanktonfromthenorthernBeringSeaare alsoadvectedinPacificwateracrossthewideChukchishelfandintotheBeaufortSea(Nelsonetal2014)andtheroleofthistransportisoftenignoredinconceptualmodelsofthemarineecosystemsClearlyadvectedpreyareimportanttoUTLspeciesndashoneexamplebeingthe consumptionofPacificspeciesofeuphausiidsbybowheadwhalesatBarrowandasfareastas KaktovikAlaskaintheeasternBeaufortSea(Lowryetal2004)Anewconceptualmodelis

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requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

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Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

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(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

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)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

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Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

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32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgress inOceanography1362500262

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HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

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JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

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KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

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LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

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MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

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MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

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OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

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OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

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PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

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RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

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SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

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Moore

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NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

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(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

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andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

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18PNovP2014(

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ATaleofTwoSynthesis

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TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 31: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

requiredtocapturethecomplexinterconnectivitybetweentheroleofpelagic0benthic couplingandthatofthestronglyseasonaltransportofheatnutrientsandpreyintothe region

51EcosystemconceptualmodelsandvisualizationtoolsthelsquoArcticMarinePulsersquomodel

Thesea0icedrivenpelagic0benthiccouplingmodelhasservedthesciencecommunitywellfornearlythreedecades(Grebmeier2012andreferencestherein)Whilethepelagic0benthic modelservesasastrongframeworkfordepictingprocessesontheshallowshelfhabitatofthenorthernBeringandChukchiseasitdoesnotdepicttheinteractiveprocessesoccurring alongthenarrowinteriorshelfslopeanddeepbasinoftheBeaufortSeaCarmackandWassman(2006)advocateforthedevelopmentofldquoanecologyofadvectionrdquotoadvanceecosystemmodelsthatcansupportinter0comparisonsofexistingandfuturearcticfoodwebs Grebmeieretal(2015b)provideacomprehensiveconceptualmodellinkingadvectiveprocessesintheChukchiandBeaufortTheinputfunctionforthismodelistheadvection northofPacificWater(comprisedofAWBSWACWseeFig1)ThethreepathwaysforthisinflowcrosstheChukchiSeathenentertheBeaufortSeaprimarilyatcanyonswithfurther advectiveprocessesincludingeddysheddingalongtheslopeFreshwaterinflowfromtheYukonandMackenzieriversisdepictedasisnearshoreoutflowofSiberianCoastalWater (SCW)alongtheRussiannorthcoastThisconceptualadvectivemodelisanessentialtoolto frameourunderstandingofthePacificArcticmarineecosystembutremainsacomparativelystaticrepresentationofverydynamicprocesses

Thelsquokrilltraprsquomodeldevelopedduringastudyofbowheadwhalesfeedingoneuphausiids transportedtolocalwatersnearBarrowprovidesastartingpointtoanimateanadvectivemodelforaportionofthePacificArcticregion(Ashjianetal2010)Physicaldriversofthislocal0areamodelinvokewindforcingshelf0breaktopographyandcurrentstructurealong BarrowCanyontoexplaintheretentionofkrillalongafrontonthewesternBeaufortshelf (Okkonenetal2011)Thisdynamicmodelessentiallyldquorocksbackandforthrdquobetweentwo statesupwellingofpreyandnutrientsontothenarrowshelfinducedbyeasterlywindsand preyretentioninducedbyrelaxedorsoutherlywindsThismodelfocusesononlythewestern BeaufortSeahoweverandrequiresexpansiontoservethefullPacificArcticregion

WeproposeaninitialformoftheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelforthePacificsectorwhichaimstobothanimatetheGrebmeieretal(2015a)advectionmodelandlinkitto thepelagic0benthiccouplingmodel(Fig6)

31

Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

32

(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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CittaJJOkkonenSRQuakenbushLTMaslowskiWOsinskiRGeorgeJCSmallRJ BrowerJrHHeide0JoslashrgensenMPHarwoodLAinpressaOceanographiccharacteristicsassociatedwithautumnmovementsofbowheadwhalesintheChukchi Sea

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DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarcticsea iceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161

DruckenmillerMLCittaJJFergusonMCClarkeJTGeorgeJCQuakenbushLinpressTrendsinsea0icecoverwithinbowheadwhalehabitatsinthePacificArctic

47

DuntonKHGrebmeierJM andTrefry JH2017HannaShoalAnintegrativestudyofaHighArcticmarineecosystemintheChukchiSeaDeepSeaResearchPartIIDOI 101016jdsr2201709001

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FeelyRADoneySCCooleySR2009Oceanacidificationpresentconditionsandfuture changesinahigh0CO2worldOceanography2236047

FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015DivergentpatternsofrecentseaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049

GeorgeJCBadaJZehJScottLBrownSEOharaTampSuydamR1999Ageandgrowthestimatesofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)viaasparticacid racemizationCanadianJournalofZoology775710580

GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgress inOceanography1362500262

GilesKALaxonSWRidoutALWinghamDJBaconS2012WesternArcticOceanfreshwaterstorageincreasedbywind0drivenspin0upoftheBeaufortGyreNature Geoscience51940197

GrebmeierJMOverlandJEMooreSEFarleyEVCarmackECCooperLWFreyKEHelleJHMcLaughlinFAMcNuttSL2006AmajorecosystemshiftinthenorthernBeringSeaScience311146101464

GrebmeierJM2012ShiftingpatternsoflifeinthePacificArcticandsub0arcticseasAnnual ReviewofMarineScience41610166

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GrebmeierJMMooreSE Overland JEFrey KEandGradinger R2010BiologicalresponsetorecentPacificArcticseaiceretreatsEOS91(18)1610168

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HillVArdynaMLeeSHVarelaDEinpressDecadaltrendsinphytoplankton productioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

preferenceandbehaviorinthenortheasternChukchiSea1982084RepIntWhale Commn362730279

MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

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Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

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  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 32: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

Figure)6))Components)of)the)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)ndash)linking)pelagicVbenthic) coupling)and)advective)models)to)derive)a)seasonal)model)for)the)Pacific)Arctic)framed)by)contiguous) domains)

Inthiswaythezooplanktonandforagefishpredictedbythepelagic0benthicmodelwiththelossofseaiceareadvectedacrosstheChukchiandintotheBeaufortSeabytheadvective modelTheAMPmodelemploysthecontiguousdomainconceptdescribedinCarmackand Wassmann(2006)tojoinphysicalhabitatsbytheintegrationofcommonfeaturessuchastheseasonalcyclesofinflowatBeringStraitsea0iceadvanceandretreatandriverineexport SpecificallywithintheoverallgeographicdomainofthePacificArctictheAMPmodelconnectsthreedynamiccontiguousdomains(Fig7)

(i)SeasonalicezonedomainndashseasonaliceretreatservestolinktheAMPmodeltothepelagic0 benthiccouplingmodelTimingandpaceofsea0iceretreatacrosstheChukchiSeadrives pulsesoforganicmaterialeithertothebenthosortowardsthepelagicsystemsea0iceretreat beyondthenarrowBeaufortshelfinlatesummerallowsthesystemtorespondtowindsthat caninducepulsesofupwellingofnutrientsandpreyontotheshelf

(ii)PacificmarginaldomainndashtheBeaufortSeashelfbreakandslopeisatransportpathway fornutrientsandpreyadvectedacrosstheChukchiSeathismarginaldomainalsoprovides linkstothedeepbasinwherestoresofnutrientsandpreycanbeupwelledbywindforcingafterthesea0iceretreatsHeraldandBarrowcanyonsarefocalpointsofshelf0basinexchange (iesecondarypulse0points)althoughlocalwindscanreverseflow

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(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

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Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

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explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

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inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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46

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47

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FeelyRADoneySCCooleySR2009Oceanacidificationpresentconditionsandfuture changesinahigh0CO2worldOceanography2236047

FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015DivergentpatternsofrecentseaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049

GeorgeJCBadaJZehJScottLBrownSEOharaTampSuydamR1999Ageandgrowthestimatesofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)viaasparticacid racemizationCanadianJournalofZoology775710580

GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgress inOceanography1362500262

GilesKALaxonSWRidoutALWinghamDJBaconS2012WesternArcticOceanfreshwaterstorageincreasedbywind0drivenspin0upoftheBeaufortGyreNature Geoscience51940197

GrebmeierJMOverlandJEMooreSEFarleyEVCarmackECCooperLWFreyKEHelleJHMcLaughlinFAMcNuttSL2006AmajorecosystemshiftinthenorthernBeringSeaScience311146101464

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GrebmeierJMMooreSE Overland JEFrey KEandGradinger R2010BiologicalresponsetorecentPacificArcticseaiceretreatsEOS91(18)1610168

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GrebmeierJMCooperLWAshjianCABluhmBACampbellRBDuntonKEMooreJ OkkonenSSheffieldGTrefryJPasternakSY2015cPacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(PacMARS)FinalReportNorthPacificResearchBoard259pp

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HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015Change intheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

HillVArdynaMLeeSHVarelaDEinpressDecadaltrendsinphytoplankton productioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

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MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

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OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

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SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

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52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

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FairbanksAK

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Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

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Physics

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UW

SeattleWA

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Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

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ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

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KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

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57

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MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

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ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

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NOAAPMELSeattleWA

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MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

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PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

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OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

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20PJanP2013(

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21PJanP2013(

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PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

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AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

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NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

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19PJunP2013(

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

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Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

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22PJanP2014(

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OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

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Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

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ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

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MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

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FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

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26PJanP2016(

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OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

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26PJanP2016(

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OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 33: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

(iii)RiverinecoastaldomainndashtheYukonandMackenzieriveroutflowsprovideseasonal pulsesofwarmandfreshwatertothenorthernBeringandBeaufortseasrespectivelyInthe BeauforttheMackenzieoutflowcantrapnutrientsandpreyTheMackenzieoutflowhas increaseddramaticallyoverthepastdecade(Woodetal2015)andwithincreasedseasonal run0offtheSagavanirktokandColvilleriversmayhavegreaterinfluencenowthaninthepast

Figure)7)The)Arctic)Marine)Pulses)(AMP))conceptual)model)depicting)seasonal)biophysical)pulses)in) three)ecological)domains)across)a)latitudinal)gradient)over)the)course)of)an)annual)cycle)in)the)Pacific) Arctic)region)(Moore)and)Stabeno)2015))

33

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

preferenceandbehaviorinthenortheasternChukchiSea1982084RepIntWhale Commn362730279

MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Moore

TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

Mathis

UsinganEnvironmentalIntelligenceFrameworktoEvaluatetheImpactsof

OceanAcidificationintheArctic

ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

26(Jan(2017(

Moore

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

24(Jan(2017(

VanPelt

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 34: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

)

SOARPHASEII

1Background

In2015severalnewsynthesisteamswereformedandworkcommencedonasecondSOAR specialissuetheculminationofwhicharethefifteenpeer0reviewedpaperstobepublishedin aspecialvolumeofDeepSeaResearchPartIIBelowweprovideanoverviewoffindingsand synthesespublishedinthoseindividualpapersstructuredaroundtheframeworkofthe ArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodelanditsthreeecologicaldomainsintroducedintheprecedingSOARPhaseIdiscussion

2TheArcticMarinePulsesconceptualmodel

TheArcticMarinePulses(AMP)conceptualmodelwasinitiallydevelopedtoprovidean overarchingsynthesisofresultspresentedinpaperscomprisingthefirstSOARspecialissue(seeprecedingsynthesisanddiscussionofSOARPhaseIMooreandStabeno2015)Inbrief theAMPmodelusestheconceptofecologicaldomainsasaframeworktofocusinvestigativeattentiononseasonaloceanographicpulsiveeventsinthePacificArcticregionoveranannual cycle(Fig7)TheAMPmodelisfurtherdevelopedinMooreetal(inpress)whereinthephenologyofpelagic0benthiccouplingandadvectiveprocessesaredescribedandlinkedto examplesofhowbenthicmacrofaunalandupper0trophicspeciesrespondtochangesin ecosystemstructureTheAMPmodelaimstoencouragemulti0disciplinaryresearchandwithitsfocusonphenologyofeventsoveranannualcyclemayservetofacilitatecommunication betweenconventionalscienceandIndigenousKnowledge

InthissynthesisanddiscussionofthesecondSOARspecialissueweusethreeecological domainsthatframetheAMPmodeltostructureanoverviewofresultspresentedinthisspecialissue(Fig8)

34

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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ArrigoKRand vanDijkenGL2015ContinuedincreasesinArcticOceanprimaryproductionProgressinOceanography13660070

AshjianCJBraund SRCampbell RGGeorgeJC Kruse JMaslowski WMooreSE Nicolson CROkkonen SR SherrBF Sherr EBandSpitz Y2010Climate variabilityoceanographybowheadwhaledistributionandInupiatsubsistence whalingnearBarrowAlaskaArctic63(2)1790194

BerlineLSpitzYH AshjianCJ CampbellRG Maslowski WandMoore SE2008 EuphausiidtransportintheWesternArcticOceanMarineEcologyProgressSeries360 1630178

BlackwellSBRichardsonWJGreeneCRStreeverB2007Bowheadwhale(Balaena mysticetus)migrationandcallingbehaviorintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaautumn2001004 anacousticlocalizationstudyArctic602550270

BlockBAJonsenIDJorgensenSJ+18co0authors2011TrackingapexmarinepredatormovementsinadynamicoceanNature475doi101038nature10082

BluhmBACoyle KOKonar BandHighsmith R2007Highgraywhalerelativeabundances associatedwithanoceanographicfrontinthesouth0centralChukchiSeaDeepSea ResearchII291902933

BondNStabenoPNappJinpressFlowpatternsintheChukchiSeabasedonanoceanreanalysisJunethroughOctober197902014

CarmackEDBarberJChristensenRMacdonaldBRudelsandESakshaug2006Climatevariabilityandphysicalforcingofthefoodwebsandcarbonbudgetonpanarcticshelves ProgressinOceanography711450181

CarmackEWassmannP2006Foodwebsandphysical0biologicalcouplingonpan0Arctic shelvesunifyingconceptsandcomprehensiveperspectivesProgressinOceanography714460477

CarmackEWinsorPWilliamsW2015ThecontiguouspanarcticRiverineCoastal DomainaunifyingconceptProgressinOceanography13913023

46

CittaJJQuakenbushLTOkkonenSRDruckenmillerMLMaslowskiWClement0 KinneyJGeorgeJCBrowerHSmallRJAshjianCJHarwoodLAHeide0Joslashrgensen MP2015Ecologicalcharacteristicsofcore0useareasusedbyBeringndashChukchindashBeaufort(BCB)bowheadwhales2006ndash2012ProgressinOceanography1362010222

CittaJJOkkonenSRQuakenbushLTMaslowskiWOsinskiRGeorgeJCSmallRJ BrowerJrHHeide0JoslashrgensenMPHarwoodLAinpressaOceanographiccharacteristicsassociatedwithautumnmovementsofbowheadwhalesintheChukchi Sea

CittaJJQuakenbushLTLondonJMFrostKJFischbachASLowryLFOrsquoCorry0Crowe GJayCVCrawfordJABovengPLCameronMVonDuykeALNelsonMHarwoodLARichardPSuydamRHeide0JoslashrgensenMPHobbsRCLitovkaDI GeorgeJCKellyBPSmithTGKennedyAGoodwinJOrrJGrayTinpressbOverlapofmarinemammalrangesandmulti0speciescoreuseareasasynthesisof satellitetelemetrydatainthePacificArctic

ClarkCWBerchokCLBlackwellSBHannayDEJonesJPonirakisDStaffordKM 2015AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesintheBeringChukchiand BeaufortseasProgressinOceanography1362230240

CooperLWGrebmeierJMinpressDepositionpatternsontheChukchishelfusingradionuclideinventoriesinrelationtosurfacesedimentcharacteristics

CrawfordJAQuakenbushLTCittaJJ2015Acomparisonofringedandbeardedsealdiet conditionandproductivitybetweenhistorical(1975ndash1984)andrecent(2003ndash2012)periodsintheAlaskanBeringandChukchiseasProgressinOceanography1361330150

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DanielsonSLWeingartnerTJHedstromKSAagaardKWoodgateRCurchitserEStabenoPJ2014Coupledwind0forcedcontrolsoftheBering0Chukchishelfcirculation andtheBeringStraitthroughflowEkmantransportcontinentalshelfwavesand variationsofthePacific0ArcticseasurfaceheightgradientProgressinOceanography12540061

DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarcticsea iceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161

DruckenmillerMLCittaJJFergusonMCClarkeJTGeorgeJCQuakenbushLinpressTrendsinsea0icecoverwithinbowheadwhalehabitatsinthePacificArctic

47

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Dunton KH Grebmeier JM and Trefry JH2014ThebenthicecosystemofthenortheasternChukchiSeaanoverviewofitsuniquebiogeochemistryandbiological characteristicsDeep0SeaResearchII102108

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EllisonWTRaccaRClarkCWStreeverBFrankelASFleishmanEAnglissRBergerJKettenDGuerraMLeuMMcKennaMSformoTSouthallBSuydamR ThomasL2016Modelingtheaggregatedexposureandresponsesofbowheadwhales BalaenamysticetustomultiplesourcesofanthropogenicunderwatersoundEndangeredSpeciesResearch30950108

FeelyRADoneySCCooleySR2009Oceanacidificationpresentconditionsandfuture changesinahigh0CO2worldOceanography2236047

FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015DivergentpatternsofrecentseaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049

GeorgeJCBadaJZehJScottLBrownSEOharaTampSuydamR1999Ageandgrowthestimatesofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)viaasparticacid racemizationCanadianJournalofZoology775710580

GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgress inOceanography1362500262

GilesKALaxonSWRidoutALWinghamDJBaconS2012WesternArcticOceanfreshwaterstorageincreasedbywind0drivenspin0upoftheBeaufortGyreNature Geoscience51940197

GrebmeierJMOverlandJEMooreSEFarleyEVCarmackECCooperLWFreyKEHelleJHMcLaughlinFAMcNuttSL2006AmajorecosystemshiftinthenorthernBeringSeaScience311146101464

GrebmeierJM2012ShiftingpatternsoflifeinthePacificArcticandsub0arcticseasAnnual ReviewofMarineScience41610166

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48

GrebmeierJMMooreSE Overland JEFrey KEandGradinger R2010BiologicalresponsetorecentPacificArcticseaiceretreatsEOS91(18)1610168

GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarke JTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSH LovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015aEcosystemcharacteristicsand processesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114

GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDenisenkoSGIkenKKedraMSerratosC 2015bTime0seriesbenthiccommunitycompositionandbiomassandassociatedenvironmentalcharacteristicsintheChukchiSeaduringtheRUSALCA200402012programOceanography231160133

GrebmeierJMCooperLWAshjianCABluhmBACampbellRBDuntonKEMooreJ OkkonenSSheffieldGTrefryJPasternakSY2015cPacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(PacMARS)FinalReportNorthPacificResearchBoard259pp

HannayDEDelarueJMouyXMartinBSLearyDOswaldJNVallartaJ2013 MarinemammalacousticdetectionsinthenortheasternChukchiSeaSeptember2007ndashJuly2011ContinentalShelfResearch671270146

HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015Change intheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

HillVArdynaMLeeSHVarelaDEinpressDecadaltrendsinphytoplankton productioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

preferenceandbehaviorinthenortheasternChukchiSea1982084RepIntWhale Commn362730279

MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

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  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 35: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

Figure)8))Papers)comprising)the)forthcoming)2018)2nd)SOAR)special)issue)(to)be)published)in)DeepVSea) Research)Part)II))identified)by)lead)author)and)organized)by)ecological)domains)that)frame)the)Arctic) Marine)Pulses)model)(Moore)et)al)in)press))

TheSeasonalIceZonedomainisdefinedbythelimitsofsea0iceextentinMarch(maximum)andSeptember(minimum)andtherebyincludescontinentalshelfslopeanddeepbasin habitatsinthePacificArctic(Fig1boundedbyorangelines)IncontrasttheMarginalandtheRiverineCoastaldomainsaremorenarrowlydefinedby(i)thesteepbathymetryofthe continentalslopeandcanyonsinthenorthernChukchiandBeaufortseasand(ii)nearshore watersinfluencedbyriverdischargerespectively(CarmackandWassman2006Carmacketal2015)Byusingtheseecologicaldomainstoframeresultspresentedinthepapers comprisingthisspecialissueweaimtofurtherexploretheutilityoftheAMPmodelforintegratingbiophysicalprocessesinthePacificArcticregiontherebyfulfillingtheoverarchinggoaloftheSOARprojecttobetterunderstandthisdynamicmarineecosystem

3SeasonalIceZoneDomain

31PhysicsSeaIceModelsandOceanReanalysis

Thedecreaseinsea0iceextentvolumeanddurationoverthepastthreedecadesisaniconicfeatureofachangingclimateinthePacificArctic(Woodetal2015Freyetal2015WangandOverland2015)Withsea0icecoverdecliningrapidlyshiftsinthetimingofbreak0upand

35

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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46

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47

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FeelyRADoneySCCooleySR2009Oceanacidificationpresentconditionsandfuture changesinahigh0CO2worldOceanography2236047

FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015DivergentpatternsofrecentseaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049

GeorgeJCBadaJZehJScottLBrownSEOharaTampSuydamR1999Ageandgrowthestimatesofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)viaasparticacid racemizationCanadianJournalofZoology775710580

GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgress inOceanography1362500262

GilesKALaxonSWRidoutALWinghamDJBaconS2012WesternArcticOceanfreshwaterstorageincreasedbywind0drivenspin0upoftheBeaufortGyreNature Geoscience51940197

GrebmeierJMOverlandJEMooreSEFarleyEVCarmackECCooperLWFreyKEHelleJHMcLaughlinFAMcNuttSL2006AmajorecosystemshiftinthenorthernBeringSeaScience311146101464

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GrebmeierJMMooreSE Overland JEFrey KEandGradinger R2010BiologicalresponsetorecentPacificArcticseaiceretreatsEOS91(18)1610168

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GrebmeierJMCooperLWAshjianCABluhmBACampbellRBDuntonKEMooreJ OkkonenSSheffieldGTrefryJPasternakSY2015cPacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(PacMARS)FinalReportNorthPacificResearchBoard259pp

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HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015Change intheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

HillVArdynaMLeeSHVarelaDEinpressDecadaltrendsinphytoplankton productioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

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MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

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OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

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SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

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52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

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Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

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Wieslaw

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NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

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Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

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Zooplankton

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Brenda(Norcross(

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KaktovikAK

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Scott(Raborn(

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PinevilleLA

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UW

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57

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MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

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AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

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SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

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GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

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MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

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KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

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ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

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WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

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AnchorageAK

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OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

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    • Caption
Page 36: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

freeze0uphavebecomeurgentscientificsocialandeconomicconcernsWangetal(inpress)analyzeddailysea0iceconcentrationdatatoassessthedatesofsea0icebreak0upandfreeze0 upandtherebyderiveatrendinsea0icedurationfortheperiod199002015andaprojectionofsea0icedurationtomid0century(2044)Theanalysisbasedonsimulationresultsfromthe coupledAtmosphere0OceanGeneralCirculationModelsfromPhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)wasconductedbothatthebroadscaleofthePacificArcticregionandatregionalandlocalscalesasdefinedbytheeightregionsoftheDistributed BiologicalObservatory(httpswwwpmelnoaagovdbo)andbyeightoceanographicmooringsitesinthenortheastChukchiSearespectivelyWangetal(inpress)showthatthe durationofsea0icecoverisdecliningwiththestrongesttrendapparentduringthe199002015periodThe300yearaveragedtrendwasprojectedtobefrom0068daysyearto012 daysyearfortheperiod201502044whichisequivalenttoa20to36dayreductioninannual sea0icedurationSimilarresultswerefoundatbothregionalandlocalscalesThemodelsindicatethatwhiletheshorteningofthesea0iceseasonisdrivenbybothlaterfreeze0upand earlierbreak0upthedelayinfreeze0upisthelargercontributorProjectedchangesinsea0icedurationinthePacificArcticexhibitspatialvariancewiththeBeringStraitareaprojectedto experienceadecreaseoflessthan200daydurationoverthenext30yearswhiletheEast SiberianChukchiandBeaufortseasareprojectedtoexperiencea600dayreductionbymid0centuryThedramaticreductioninsea0icedurationhasdrivenandwillcontinuetodrive changesinthemarineecosystemofthePacificArcticwhilealsobothfosteringoffshorecommercialactivitiesandimpedinglocalaccesstoresourcesforinhabitantsofcoastal communities

Thechangingoceanographyduringtheopen0waterseasoninthePacificArcticwasthefocusofareanalysisstudyundertakenbyBondetal(inpress)Specificallythephysical oceanographicconditionsextantfromJunethroughOctoberontheChukchiSeashelfwereinvestigatedusingtheORAS4oceanreanalysissoftwarefortheperiod197902014Timeseriesofverticallyintegratedtemperaturesshowedgreaterwarming(especiallyduring SeptemberandOctober)inthefirsthalfofthe360yearrecordafindingthatmightbeattributedtotrendsinmeancurrentsatChukchiSeacanyonsthatwerelesspolewardafter 2000Fivedistinctpatternsofflowwerederivedusingak0meansclusteranalysisofmonthlymeansea0surfaceheightanomalydistributionsTwoofthefivepatternsrelatedtothestrengthoftheAlaskanCoastalCurrent(ACC)intheeasternChukchiSeatwopatternsrelated toperiodsofnorthwestwardversussoutheastwardflowassociatedwiththeabsenceor presenceoftheSiberianCoastalCurrentinthenorthwestChukchiSeaandonepatternwas definedbyweaksoutheastwardflowanomaliesinthewesternChukchiandasuppressedACC relativetothemeanintheeasternChukchiSeaThecompositesea0surfaceheightanomaly patternsofthefiveclustertypesconformtothemeansealevelpressureanomaly distributionsforthemonthsconstitutingeachtypeThedescriptionoffivedistinctflowpatternsprovidesalong0termcontextforpreviousfieldobservationsandmaycontributeto theinterpretationofobservedchangesinthestructureandfunctionofthemarineecosystemoftheChukchiSea

36

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

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26PJanP2016(

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

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26PJanP2016(

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TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

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31PMarP2016(

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 37: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

32BiophysicalObservationssedimentdepositionpatternscorrosivewaterformationandlsquoin sitursquoprimaryproductionmeasurements

Examiningfactorsthatinfluencesedimentationandbioturbationiskeytounderstanding pelagic0benthiclinkagesthatcanfosterhigh0productivitymacrobenthiccommunitiesonthecontinentalshelvesofthePacificArcticregion(Grebmeieretal2015ab)Toexamine depositionpatternsonthebroadChukchicontinentalshelfCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)assayed40sedimentcoresforthesedimentationtracer137Csoriginatingfrombombfallout and34coresfor210PbBecausebothsedimentationandbioturbationinfluencehowthese tracersaredistributedverticallyinsedimentsonlyabouthalfofthecoreshaddistinctsinglemid0depthorsubsurfacemaximumactivitypeaksassociatedwith137CsSimilarlyonly14of the34coresassayedshowedaconsistentdeclineinexcesssedimentary210Pbwithdepthin thecoreFurthermoresedimentationrateestimatesfrom210Pbassayswereonlyconsistent withestimated137Cssedimentationratesin5ofthe14coresAhighdegreeofbioturbationontheshelfisprimarilyresponsibleforthesepatternsalthoughtheinfluenceofsedimentationonverticalprofilesisalsoimportantparticularlyinareasoflowaccumulation whereshallowburialofmaximumburdensof137Csoccurinareaswithstrongcurrentssuch asHeraldCanyonShallowburialof137Csisalsoobservedincomparativelylow sedimentationareassuchasHannaShoalonthenortheastChukchishelfConverselyelsewhereonthenortheastChukchishelfandinproductivebenthicldquohotspotsrdquothestronger influenceofbioturbationleadstomoreevenverticaldistributionof137Cswithinsediments Theseprofilesof137Csreflectseveralothersedimentcharacteristicsthatareaffectedbycurrentflowwhichinturnimpactbiologicalactivityincludinggrainsizecarbontonitrogen ratiosoftheorganicfractionofsurfacesedimentsandtotalorganiccarboncontentThedistributionpatternsoftheradionuclidesparticularlythedepthwhere137Csreaches maximumactivityreflectssedimentationunderbothsluggishandstrongcurrentsThe activityof137Csatthatdepthofmaximumactivityalsoprovidesinsightsonhowmuchtheverticaldistributionoftheradionuclidehasbeenimpactedbybioturbationaswellasthe characteristicsofthesedimentsthatplayaroleininfluencingdepositionandtotalinventoriesof137Csoncontinentalshelves

Oceanacidification(OA)thetermusedtodescribetheprogressivedecreaseinoceanwater pHandcarbonateionconcentrationcoincidentwiththeuptakeofanthropogenicCO2isnow awell0describedglobalphenomenonwiththepotentialtonegativelyimpactmarineecosystems(Feelyetal2009Mathisetal2015andreferencestherein)Crossetal(in press)synthesizedatafromprocessstudiesacrossthePacificArcticregiontodescribetheformationofconditionsincoldanddensewinter0modifiedshelfwatersthatarecorrosiveto biologicallyimportantcarbonatemineralsWhenthesecorrosivewatersaresubsequentlytransportedofftheshelftheyacidifythePacifichaloclineCrossetal(inpress)estimatethat BarrowCanyonoutflowdelivers~224TgCyrofcorrosivewinterwatertotheArcticOceanThecombinationofspatialandtemporaldatademonstratestheseasonalvariabilityand persistenceofcorrosiveconditionsinhaloclinewatersForexampleonestudyindicatedthat

37

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

preferenceandbehaviorinthenortheasternChukchiSea1982084RepIntWhale Commn362730279

MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

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26PJanP2016(

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OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

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26PJanP2016(

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ArcticRegion

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AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 38: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

05ndash17TgCyrmaybereturnedtotheatmosphereviaair0seagasexchangeofCO2duringupwellingeventsalongtheBeaufortSeashelfthatbringPacifichaloclinewaterstotheocean surfaceThelossofCO2duringtheseeventsismorethansufficienttoeliminatecorrosiveconditionsintheupwelledPacifichaloclinewatersHowevercorrespondingmooredand discretedatarecordsindicatethatpotentiallycorrosivePacificwatersarepresentintheBeaufortshelf0breakjetduring80oftheyearindicatingthatthepersistenceofacidified watersinthePacifichaloclinefaroutweighsanyseasonalmitigationfromupwellingBy comparingmultiplebroad0scaledatasetsCrossetal(inpress)suggestthatthepersistent corrosiveconditionsofthePacifichaloclineisarecentphenomenonthatfirstappeared sometimebetween1975and1985SincethenthesepotentiallycorrosivewatersoriginatingoverthecontinentalshelveshavebeenobservedasfareastastheentrancestoAmundsen GulfandMrsquoClureStrait(ca125⁰Wlongitude)intheCanadianArcticArchipelagoTheformationandtransportofcorrosivewatersonthePacificArcticshelvesmayhavewidespreadimpactontheArcticbiogeochemicalsystemandfoodwebreachingallthewayto theNorthAtlantic

AnnualnetprimaryproductionovertheArcticOceanasmeasuredfromsatellitesincreased30between199802012withupturnsinthePacificArcticregionreportedas421 (Chukchi)531(Beaufort)and677(EastSiberian)duringthatperiod(ArrigoandvanDijken2015)Whileinformativemeasuresfromremotesensingreflectonlywhatishappeninginthesurfacelayeroftheoceanandmisssub0surfaceprimaryproductionHillet al(inpress)provideasynthesisofavailableinsituprimaryproductionmeasurementsmadeinthePacificArcticbetween1950and2012Specificallyintegratedprimaryproductionwas calculatedfrom524profiles340ofwhichwereanalyzedtodeterminetheverticaldistributionofprimaryproductionratesforspringsummerandfallThenorthernBeringSea (ChirikovBasin)andChukchishelfwerethemostproductiveareaswiththeEastSiberianSeaChukchiPlateauandCanadaBasinthelowestDecadal0scalechangesincluded(i)a significantincreaseinPPrateandthelossofameasurablesubsurfacepeakbetween195960 andthe2000sinthesouthernChukchiSeaand(ii)anearlierphytoplanktonsurfacebloominthenortheasternChukchiSea(HannaShoal)inthe2000scomparedto1993thatisassociated withincreasedlightduetosea0iceretreatThesechangesinprimaryproductionhavelikelyfueledcascadingeffectsinfoodwebsofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem

33EcosystemStructureresponsesofmarinemammalstochanginghabitats

TherangeoftheBering0Chukchi0Beaufortpopulationofbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus) extendsacrosstheseasonalicezoneofthePacificArcticThemajorityofwhalessummerintheeasternBeaufortSeaandwinterintheBeringSeamigratingacrosstheChukchiSeainspringandautumnwhileoccupyingdistinctcore0useareasineachregion(Cittaetal2015) Therapidlossofsea0iceoverthepasttwodecadeshaschangedbowheadhabitatssubstantiallywithmanyareasnowregularlyice0freewhenwhalesarepresent Druckenmilleretal(inpress)examinedchangesinthenumberofopenwaterdays(OWD)withinannualbowheadwhalecore0useareasfrom197902014andwithinthewestern

38

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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GrebmeierJMMooreSE Overland JEFrey KEandGradinger R2010BiologicalresponsetorecentPacificArcticseaiceretreatsEOS91(18)1610168

GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarke JTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSH LovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015aEcosystemcharacteristicsand processesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114

GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDenisenkoSGIkenKKedraMSerratosC 2015bTime0seriesbenthiccommunitycompositionandbiomassandassociatedenvironmentalcharacteristicsintheChukchiSeaduringtheRUSALCA200402012programOceanography231160133

GrebmeierJMCooperLWAshjianCABluhmBACampbellRBDuntonKEMooreJ OkkonenSSheffieldGTrefryJPasternakSY2015cPacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(PacMARS)FinalReportNorthPacificResearchBoard259pp

HannayDEDelarueJMouyXMartinBSLearyDOswaldJNVallartaJ2013 MarinemammalacousticdetectionsinthenortheasternChukchiSeaSeptember2007ndashJuly2011ContinentalShelfResearch671270146

HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015Change intheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

HillVArdynaMLeeSHVarelaDEinpressDecadaltrendsinphytoplankton productioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

preferenceandbehaviorinthenortheasternChukchiSea1982084RepIntWhale Commn362730279

MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

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26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

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TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

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ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

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Page 39: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

BeaufortSea(140degW0157degWto72degN)sampledviaaerialsurveyseachautumn198202014 Themostdramaticreductionsinsea0icecoverhavetakenplaceinthewesternBeaufortSea wherethenumberofOWDontheshelfandslopehaveincreasedby20and25daysdecaderespectivelyIcecoverhasdecreasedmoreinnorthernthaninsoutherncore0useareas SpecificallythenumbersofOWDwithinthecore0useareasnearPointBarrowandalongthenorthernChukotkacoasthaveincreasedby13and10daysdecaderespectivelywhilesea0icecoverhasnotsubstantiallychangedwithinthewintercore0useareaneartheGulfof AnadyrFromanalysisofaerialsurveydataDruckenmilleretal(inpress)reportthatduringtheautumnmigrationacrosstheBeaufortSeabowheadspreferhabitatscloserto shorethantotheiceedgeandthattheirdistancetoshoredecreasesasthefractionofopenwaterincreasesThisdistributionmaybearesponsetoincreasedfeedingopportunities closertoshoreresultingfromgreaterupwellingalongtheshelfbreakwhentheiceretreatsfarfromshoreTheaerialsurveydataalsorevealedasubstantialshifttowardPointBarrowin thewhalesrsquouseofthewesternBeaufortSeaduringautumn199702014comparedtoautumn 198201996InthefuturereducedseaiceinthesouthernChukchiSeamaymakewinteringtheremorecommonandwhalemovementsinsummerandautumnmaybecomemore variableasproductivityandzooplanktonaggregationsarealteredinresponsetosea0icelossandshiftingoceandynamics

Theunderwateracousticenvironmentiskeytothebehavioralecologyofallmarinemammals(egErbeetal2015)andhasreceiveddetailedstudywithregardtoitsinfluenceon bowheadwhalemovements(egClarketal2015Ellisonetal2016)Staffordetal(inpressa)describetheunderwateracousticenvironmentofbeluga(Delphinapterusleucas)and bowheadwhalesinthreeregionscontainingcore0useareas(Cittaetal2015)examinedduringmonthsinwhichbothspeciesoccurthereinie(1)January0MarchintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregion(2)November0JanuaryintheBeringStraitregionand (3)August0OctoberintheBarrowCanyonregionBiologicalsounds(primarilycallsfrombowheadwhaleswalrusesandbeardedseals)dominatedtheacousticenvironmentintheSt LawrenceIslandAnadyrStraitregionwhichwascoveredbyseaicethroughoutthemonthsstudiedIntheBeringStraitregionwhaleswereexposedprimarilytoenvironmentalnoise (mostlyfromwind)beforetheregionwasicecoveredinNovemberbyDecemberbiologicalsounds(fromcallingbowheadsandwalruses)becamemostprevalentTransientbutacuteanthropogenicnoise(fromvesselsandairguns)werealargecontributortotheunderwater acousticenvironmentintheBarrowCanyonregioninlatesummerandautumnduringthe200902010studyperiodthiswasalsotheonlyregioninwhichthetwospeciesco0occurred duringopenwaterperiodDuringopenwaterconditionsbothnearBarrowCanyonandinBeringStraitunderwaternoiselevelsweretightlycorrelatedwithwindasisgenerallythecasethroughouttheworldoceanStaffordetal(inpressa)suggestthatrecentincreasesin theopenwaterperiodassociatedwithclimatechangearefosteringincreasednoiselevelsaggregatedfrommultiplesoundsources(atmosphericbiologicalanthropogenic)thus rapidlyalteringtheunderwateracousticenvironmentformarinemammalsinthePacificArctic

39

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

preferenceandbehaviorinthenortheasternChukchiSea1982084RepIntWhale Commn362730279

MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

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OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

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26PJanP2016(

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

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ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

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ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 40: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

Adescriptionofthefine0scalemovementsofbowheadwhalesacrosstheChukchiSeaduringtheautumnmigrationisprovidedbyCittaetal(inpressa)derivedfromananalysisof telemetrydataobtainedfrom200602010and2012InsomeyearswhalesmigrateddirectlytothenortherncoastofChukotkawhileinotheryearswhalespausedmigrationandlingered inthecentralChukchiSeapresumablytofeedToinvestigatehowwhalemovementswererelatedtooceanographicvariablesbowheadwhalehabitatselectionwasexaminedatbothlandscapeandlocalscalesusingacorrelatedrandomwalkmodelandoceanographicdata fromapan0arcticice0oceanmodelAtthelandscapescaleCittaetal(inpressa)foundthatwhalesgenerallyfollowedcold0salinewaterofPacificoriginandavoidedthecomparatively warm0freshwatersoftheAlaskanCoastalandSiberianCoastalcurrentsAtthelocalscale whalesweremorelikelytolingerincentral0Chukchiareascharacterizedbystronggradients inbottomsalinitywhichhavebeenassociatedwithareasofdensezooplanktonconcentrationsinotherstudies

Trackingtheaggregatemovementsofpelagicmarinepredatorshasincreasinglybecomeameanstoidentifyecologicalpatternsinoceanecosystems(egHusseyetal2015Blocket al2011)Cittaetal(inpressb)presentthefirstsystematicanalysisoftelemetrydataforsevenmarinemammalspecies(fourpinnipedandthreecetacean)thatroutinelyoccupy PacificArcticwatersandsummarizetheircollectivedistributionsfortwotemporalperiodslabeledsummer(May0November)andwinter(December0April)Whenexaminedforoverlapsixmulti0speciescore0useareaswereidentifiedinsummerandfourinwinterInsummer fourofthesixmulti0speciescore0useareasoccurredintheBeringStraitregionandthenorthwesterncoastofAlaskaandincludedtracksfrommostofthespeciesstudiedThetwo othersummercore0useareaswereintheCanadianArchipelagolargelydefinedbythetracksofbowheadwhalesandEasternBeaufortSeabelugawhalesInwinterthemainmulti0 speciescore0useareastretchedfromtheGulfofAnadyrnorthwardsthroughAnadyrandBeringStraitswhichincludesanareaofenhancedprimaryandsecondaryproductivity(ldquogreenbeltrdquo)intheBeringSeaCittaetal(inpressb)alsoprovidealistofextanttelemetry dataanddataholderswithanappealthatthesebaselinedatabearchivedtoensuretheyare availableforfutureretrospectiveanalysestotrackchangesinthePacificArcticmarine ecosystem

4MarginalDomainBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortslope

AtmosphericforcingadvectionandupwellingalongBarrowCanyonandthecontinentalslope ofthewesternBeaufortSeahavebeenthesubjectofinvestigationfordecadesalthough biologicalsamplingrarelyextendsbeyondmeasuresofnutrientsandchlorophyll0a(egPickartetal2013ab)Randetal(inpress)useenvironmentalvariablesandbiologicaltraitstocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacentto BarrowCanyonDatawereanalyzedfromtwostandardizedbottom0trawlsurveysoneinthe northeastChukchiSea(2013)andthesecondinthewesternBeaufortSea(2008)Inthe ChukchiSeabottomhardnessanddepthwerethekeyvariablesexplainingpatternintheepibenthiccommunitywhileintheBeaufortSeaunlinednethaulsanddepthwerethemain

40

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Moore

TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

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UsinganEnvironmentalIntelligenceFrameworktoEvaluatetheImpactsof

OceanAcidificationintheArctic

ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

26(Jan(2017(

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

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24(Jan(2017(

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 41: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

explanatoryvariablesAlthoughepibenthiccommunitiesineachregiondifferedtaxonomicallyinabundanceanddistributionananalysisofbiologicaltraitsshowedthatthey werefunctionallysimilarTheseresultscomplementearlierdescriptionsofepibenthic communitiesonthecontinentalshelfofthenortheasternChukchiSeawheredistinct epibenthiccommunitydistributionpatternswerematchedwithbathymetrically0channeledwatermasses(Raveloetal2014)

Logerwelletal(2015)describedfishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthe westernBeaufortandnortheasternChukchiseasfocusingmainlyoncontinentalshelfhabitatsLogerwelletal(inpress)augmentthisearlierworkbydescribingresultsoftwomultidisciplinarysurveys(2008and2013asinRandetalinpress)focusedonbenthicfish distributionandoceanographicprocessesinandaroundBarrowCanyonThedensityof Arcticcod(Boreogadussaida)themostabundantspecieswasrelatedtobottomdepth salinityandtemperaturebothinBarrowCanyonandalongthecontinentalslopeSpecificallyArcticcodweremoreabundantindeepcoldandhighlysalinewaterlikelyadvectedfromtheChukchiShelforfromtheArcticBasinLogerwelletal(inpress)hypothesizethatArcticcod occupythesehabitatstotakeadvantageofenergy0richcopepodstransportedinassociated watermassesTheselinkagesbetweenoceanographicvariablesandbenthicfishabundance suggestthatadvectionsea0icedynamicsandpelagic0benthiccouplingareallimportantfortheecologyofbenthicfishesinthePacificArctic

Seasonalpatternsofdistributionanddensityoftwodistinctpopulationsofbelugainthe westernBeaufortSea(Staffordetalinpressb)complementstheLogerwelletal(inpress)findingsonArcticcodCombiningdatafromaerialsurveyspassiveacousticsamplingandsatellitetelemetryStaffordetal(inpressb)showthattheBarrowCanyonandBeaufortSea slopearekeyhabitatsforbothBeaufortandEasternChukchibelugapopulationsfromAprilthroughNovemberThreepeaksincallingactivityoccurduringthisperiodcorrespondingto migratorypulsesoftheBeaufort(earlyspring)Chukchi(latespring)andboth(autumn)populationsAmodelofbelugadensityderivedfromaerialsurveydatashowedthewesternregionoftheBeaufortSeaslopebecomesmoreimportantfromsummertoautumn TelemetrydatasuggestthatitispredominantlytheChukchibelugasthatusethishabitatexceptinSeptemberwhenbothpopulationsco0occurthereAsynthesisofthecombined datasetswhenintegratedwithdataonwind0drivenchangesinlocalcurrentsandwater massessuggestedthatbelugasareverycapableofadaptingtoshiftsinpreydensitiesassociatedwithoceanographicvariability

5RiverineCoastalDomainInfluenceofcoastalprocessonbowheadwhalesandpeople

TheRiverineCoastaldomainisdefinedasanarrow(lt15km)shallow(~10m)contiguousfeaturethatisprimarilyinfluencedbyaggregateterrestrialrunoffprincipallyinriverdischarges(Carmacketal2015)Thedomainistheprimaryconfluencebetweenterrestrial andmarineecosystemsandwilllikelyhaveamoreprominentroleinmodifyingcoastalenvironmentalvariabilityasterrestrialrunoffpermafrostthawingandsea0icelossesincrease

41

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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FeelyRADoneySCCooleySR2009Oceanacidificationpresentconditionsandfuture changesinahigh0CO2worldOceanography2236047

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GeorgeJCBadaJZehJScottLBrownSEOharaTampSuydamR1999Ageandgrowthestimatesofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)viaasparticacid racemizationCanadianJournalofZoology775710580

GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgress inOceanography1362500262

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GrebmeierJMOverlandJEMooreSEFarleyEVCarmackECCooperLWFreyKEHelleJHMcLaughlinFAMcNuttSL2006AmajorecosystemshiftinthenorthernBeringSeaScience311146101464

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HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015Change intheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

HillVArdynaMLeeSHVarelaDEinpressDecadaltrendsinphytoplankton productioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

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KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

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MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

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MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

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OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

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PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

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PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

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RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

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52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

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AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

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21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

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NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

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7PJunP2013( Sullivan

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20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

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AnchorageAK

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and

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22PJanP2014(

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OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

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Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

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30POctP2014(

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TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 42: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

inthenear0futureclimateDramaticshiftsintheextentoftheMackenzieRiverplumehavealreadybeenreportedwherebythedomainextendsbeyondthenearshoreshallow definitionwithasurfaceheatandfreshwatersignalrangingfarintothewesternBeaufort Sea(Woodetal2015)ClosertoshoreOkkonenetal(inpress)describehowupwelling eventscancombinewithhighriverdischargesoftheSagavanirktokandKuparukriverswhichflowintothecoastallagoonsystembetween150⁰Wand144⁰WleadingtoaggregationsoffeedingbowheadwhalesinthecentralAlaskanBeaufortSeaAtypical aggregationsofhundredsofforagingbowheadwhalesseenduringaerialsurveysinSeptember1997and2014coincidedwithprey0accumulationsrelatedtohighriverdischarges coupledtopriorupwellingeventsTheseresultsweregeneralizedtoasimplebinary0based mechanisticmodelthatlinkstherelevantphysicstooccurrencesofpotentialfeeding opportunitiesforbowheadwhalesalongtheentireBeaufortcoasttherebycontributingtoanimprovedunderstandingofthisrapidly0changingcoastaldomain

TheannualharvestofbowheadwhalesisfundamentaltothewellbeingofInuitcoastalcommunitiesinthePacificArcticregionincludingelevenvillagesthatextendfromSaint LawrenceIslandinthenorthernBeringSeatoBarterIslandinthenortheasternBeaufortSea (egBraundandMoorehead1995Huntingtonetal2016)Theimpactsofoffshore commercialactivities(egshippingoilandgasdevelopment)bothdirectlyonbowheadwhalesandontheconductofthehunthasbeenthefocusofinvestigationfornearlyfour decadeswithmuchoftheworksupportedbytheBOEMEnvironmentalStudiesProgramin Alaska(httpswwwboemgovAKStudies)andtheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentof WildlifeManagement(httpwwwnorth0slopeorgdepartmentswildlife0 managementstudies0and0research0projects)amongothersRobardsetal(inpress) describethevalueofincludingavarietyofperspectiveswhenseekingtounderstandand evaluatetheconsequencesoftheseimpactsSpecificallytheemergingfieldofldquoknowledgeco0productionrdquoidentifieswaystofacilitatetheinclusionoflocalinformationtodecisionmakingprocesses(Wyborn2015)Robardsetal(inpress)reviewoutcomesfromsevenAlaskan casesstudiestodescribeatypologyoffiveelementsimportantfortheco0productionoflocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeThreeelementsareconsistentwithearlierstudiesincluding 1)developingcommunitiesofpractice2)iterativeprocessesfordefiningproblemsandsolutionsand3)presenceofboundaryorganizationssuchasauniversitygovernmentagencyorco0managementcouncilTheauthorssuggestthatforAlaskanArcticcommunities itisalsocriticaltoincludetwootherelementsnamely4)theconsistentprovisionofsufficientfundsandlaborthatmaytranscendanyonespecificprojectgoaland5)long temporalscales(sometimesdecades)forachievingtheco0productionofactionableknowledge

6SummaryandConclusionsfromSOARPhase2

Wesummarizefindingsfromthepaperscomprisingthisspecialissueusingecological domainsadoptedintheAMPmodelasaframeworktopromoteanecosystem0focusedsynthesisofthestateofthePacificArcticNotsurprisinglymostofthepapersinthisvolume

42

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

LITERATURE)CITED)

AinleyDGandDeMaster DP1990TheuppertrophiclevelsinpolarmarineecosystemsPp 5990630InWOSmithJr(ed)PolarOceanographyPartBChemistryBiologyandGeologyAcademicPressSanDiegoCA

ArrigoKRand vanDijkenGL2015ContinuedincreasesinArcticOceanprimaryproductionProgressinOceanography13660070

AshjianCJBraund SRCampbell RGGeorgeJC Kruse JMaslowski WMooreSE Nicolson CROkkonen SR SherrBF Sherr EBandSpitz Y2010Climate variabilityoceanographybowheadwhaledistributionandInupiatsubsistence whalingnearBarrowAlaskaArctic63(2)1790194

BerlineLSpitzYH AshjianCJ CampbellRG Maslowski WandMoore SE2008 EuphausiidtransportintheWesternArcticOceanMarineEcologyProgressSeries360 1630178

BlackwellSBRichardsonWJGreeneCRStreeverB2007Bowheadwhale(Balaena mysticetus)migrationandcallingbehaviorintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaautumn2001004 anacousticlocalizationstudyArctic602550270

BlockBAJonsenIDJorgensenSJ+18co0authors2011TrackingapexmarinepredatormovementsinadynamicoceanNature475doi101038nature10082

BluhmBACoyle KOKonar BandHighsmith R2007Highgraywhalerelativeabundances associatedwithanoceanographicfrontinthesouth0centralChukchiSeaDeepSea ResearchII291902933

BondNStabenoPNappJinpressFlowpatternsintheChukchiSeabasedonanoceanreanalysisJunethroughOctober197902014

CarmackEDBarberJChristensenRMacdonaldBRudelsandESakshaug2006Climatevariabilityandphysicalforcingofthefoodwebsandcarbonbudgetonpanarcticshelves ProgressinOceanography711450181

CarmackEWassmannP2006Foodwebsandphysical0biologicalcouplingonpan0Arctic shelvesunifyingconceptsandcomprehensiveperspectivesProgressinOceanography714460477

CarmackEWinsorPWilliamsW2015ThecontiguouspanarcticRiverineCoastal DomainaunifyingconceptProgressinOceanography13913023

46

CittaJJQuakenbushLTOkkonenSRDruckenmillerMLMaslowskiWClement0 KinneyJGeorgeJCBrowerHSmallRJAshjianCJHarwoodLAHeide0Joslashrgensen MP2015Ecologicalcharacteristicsofcore0useareasusedbyBeringndashChukchindashBeaufort(BCB)bowheadwhales2006ndash2012ProgressinOceanography1362010222

CittaJJOkkonenSRQuakenbushLTMaslowskiWOsinskiRGeorgeJCSmallRJ BrowerJrHHeide0JoslashrgensenMPHarwoodLAinpressaOceanographiccharacteristicsassociatedwithautumnmovementsofbowheadwhalesintheChukchi Sea

CittaJJQuakenbushLTLondonJMFrostKJFischbachASLowryLFOrsquoCorry0Crowe GJayCVCrawfordJABovengPLCameronMVonDuykeALNelsonMHarwoodLARichardPSuydamRHeide0JoslashrgensenMPHobbsRCLitovkaDI GeorgeJCKellyBPSmithTGKennedyAGoodwinJOrrJGrayTinpressbOverlapofmarinemammalrangesandmulti0speciescoreuseareasasynthesisof satellitetelemetrydatainthePacificArctic

ClarkCWBerchokCLBlackwellSBHannayDEJonesJPonirakisDStaffordKM 2015AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesintheBeringChukchiand BeaufortseasProgressinOceanography1362230240

CooperLWGrebmeierJMinpressDepositionpatternsontheChukchishelfusingradionuclideinventoriesinrelationtosurfacesedimentcharacteristics

CrawfordJAQuakenbushLTCittaJJ2015Acomparisonofringedandbeardedsealdiet conditionandproductivitybetweenhistorical(1975ndash1984)andrecent(2003ndash2012)periodsintheAlaskanBeringandChukchiseasProgressinOceanography1361330150

CrossJNMathisJTPickartRSBatesNRinpressFormationandtransportofcorrosive waterinthePacificArcticregion

DanielsonSLWeingartnerTJHedstromKSAagaardKWoodgateRCurchitserEStabenoPJ2014Coupledwind0forcedcontrolsoftheBering0Chukchishelfcirculation andtheBeringStraitthroughflowEkmantransportcontinentalshelfwavesand variationsofthePacific0ArcticseasurfaceheightgradientProgressinOceanography12540061

DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarcticsea iceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161

DruckenmillerMLCittaJJFergusonMCClarkeJTGeorgeJCQuakenbushLinpressTrendsinsea0icecoverwithinbowheadwhalehabitatsinthePacificArctic

47

DuntonKHGrebmeierJM andTrefry JH2017HannaShoalAnintegrativestudyofaHighArcticmarineecosystemintheChukchiSeaDeepSeaResearchPartIIDOI 101016jdsr2201709001

Dunton KH Grebmeier JM and Trefry JH2014ThebenthicecosystemofthenortheasternChukchiSeaanoverviewofitsuniquebiogeochemistryandbiological characteristicsDeep0SeaResearchII102108

ErbeCReichmuthCCuninghamKLukeKDoolingR2015CommunicationmaskinginmarinemammalsareviewandresearchstrategyMarinePollutionBulletin httpdxdoiorg101016jmarpolbul201512007

EllisonWTRaccaRClarkCWStreeverBFrankelASFleishmanEAnglissRBergerJKettenDGuerraMLeuMMcKennaMSformoTSouthallBSuydamR ThomasL2016Modelingtheaggregatedexposureandresponsesofbowheadwhales BalaenamysticetustomultiplesourcesofanthropogenicunderwatersoundEndangeredSpeciesResearch30950108

FeelyRADoneySCCooleySR2009Oceanacidificationpresentconditionsandfuture changesinahigh0CO2worldOceanography2236047

FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015DivergentpatternsofrecentseaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049

GeorgeJCBadaJZehJScottLBrownSEOharaTampSuydamR1999Ageandgrowthestimatesofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)viaasparticacid racemizationCanadianJournalofZoology775710580

GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgress inOceanography1362500262

GilesKALaxonSWRidoutALWinghamDJBaconS2012WesternArcticOceanfreshwaterstorageincreasedbywind0drivenspin0upoftheBeaufortGyreNature Geoscience51940197

GrebmeierJMOverlandJEMooreSEFarleyEVCarmackECCooperLWFreyKEHelleJHMcLaughlinFAMcNuttSL2006AmajorecosystemshiftinthenorthernBeringSeaScience311146101464

GrebmeierJM2012ShiftingpatternsoflifeinthePacificArcticandsub0arcticseasAnnual ReviewofMarineScience41610166

GrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(2014)ThePacificArcticRegionAnIntroductionIn GrebmeierJMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionSpringerDordrecht

48

GrebmeierJMMooreSE Overland JEFrey KEandGradinger R2010BiologicalresponsetorecentPacificArcticseaiceretreatsEOS91(18)1610168

GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarke JTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSH LovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015aEcosystemcharacteristicsand processesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114

GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDenisenkoSGIkenKKedraMSerratosC 2015bTime0seriesbenthiccommunitycompositionandbiomassandassociatedenvironmentalcharacteristicsintheChukchiSeaduringtheRUSALCA200402012programOceanography231160133

GrebmeierJMCooperLWAshjianCABluhmBACampbellRBDuntonKEMooreJ OkkonenSSheffieldGTrefryJPasternakSY2015cPacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(PacMARS)FinalReportNorthPacificResearchBoard259pp

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HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015Change intheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

HillVArdynaMLeeSHVarelaDEinpressDecadaltrendsinphytoplankton productioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

preferenceandbehaviorinthenortheasternChukchiSea1982084RepIntWhale Commn362730279

MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

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Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

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The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

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The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
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Page 43: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

relatetoprocessesoccurringinthespatially0broadSeasonalIceZonedomainThemodelledresultsofsea0icelossatthefine0scaleofdailyandmooring0sitemeasurementsis unprecedentedandreinforcestherapidpaceofchangeinthisfundamentalcomponentofthePacificArcticmarineecosystem(Wangetalinpress)Theprognosisforalongeropen0water seasonmakestimelytheoceanreanalysisprovidedinBondetal(inpress)whichsuggeststhatcurrentflowinthelsquonewrsquoopen0waterChukchiSeaiscomprisedoflsquoalternatingstatesrsquoafindingthatprovidesafoundationforinterpretationbiophysicalpatternsobservedthereFor exampleCooperandGrebmeier(inpress)showthatdepositionpatternsacrosstheChukchiSeacanbebroadlycategorizedbasedontherelativestrengthofbioturbationversus sedimentationprocessesbothofwhicharestronglyinfluencebycurrentflowSimilarlycurrentflowpatternsparticularlyinBarrowCanyoncannotablyaffecttheamountof corrosivewinterwatertransportedfromtheChukchishelfnorthwardintoBarrowCanyonalongtheBeaufortshelfbreakandultimatelyintotheArcticOcean(Crossetalinpress)PatternsoflsquoinsitursquoprimaryproductionintheChukchiSeahavechangedconsiderablyin recentdecadesthemechanismsforwhichareundeterminedbutcouldincludeshiftsin stratificationandmixingassociatedwithshiftingpatternsofcurrentflow(Hilletalinpress) TakentogetherthesepaperssupportthecontentionthatthePacificArcticmarineecosystemhasenteredanewstate

Responsestorapidlychangingsea0iceandoceanconditionsintheSeasonalIceZonearefurtherdemonstratedbychangesintheseasonalmovementsandacousticenvironmentof bowheadwhales(DruckenmilleretalinpressStaffordetalinpressb)andintheidentificationoftwodissimilarautumnmigratorypatternsacrosstheChukchiSea(Cittaetal inpressa)InsumbowheadwhalesnowoccupycoastalandcontinentalshelfhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeainlatesummerandautumnmoreoftenthantheydidthirtyyearsago wherethey(andbelugawhales)aresubjecttoshiftsintheiracousticenvironmentassociatedwithanthropogenicnoisefromoffshorehumanactivitiesHoweverthegreatestshiftinthe underwateracousticenvironmentcomesnotfromshipsandseismicsurveysbutfrom increasedambientnoiseassociatedwithstrongwindsduringthenow0commonextendedperiodsofopen0waterOverallpreyavailabilityseemstheprimaryfactorindrivingbowhead whaledistributionbothontoshallowshelfhabitatsasseaiceretreatsfurtherfromshorein theBeaufortSea(Druckenmilleretalinpress)andtocentral0Chukchishelfhabitatwhen preyisavailablethereduringtheautumnmigration(Cittaetalinpressa)Indeedpresent circumstancesmaybeconsideredlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbowheadwhalesinthePacificArctic(Moore2016)althoughalsquotippingpointrsquoawayfromthesefavorableconditionscould accompanyfutureecosystemalterationssuchasthoseassociatedwiththeldquoatlantificationrdquoof theArctic(Polyakovetal2017)

BarrowCanyonisaregionofdynamicoceanconditionsandakeylsquogatewayrsquototheoutershelf andslopeMarginaldomainofthePacificArcticComplementarypapersfocusedonepibenthiccommunities(Randetalinpress)andbenthicfishes(Logerwelletalinpress)provideanovelsynthesisofhowbiophysicalvariabilityinandnearthecanyoninfluences

43

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

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condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

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FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

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OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

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TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

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31PMarP2016(

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 44: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

speciesoccurrenceandhabitatuseWhilecontrastingepibenthiccommunitiesweredescribedfortheBeaufortandChukchiseastheywerefoundtocontainfunctionallysimilar groupsbasedonbiologicaltraitsConverselyArcticcodwasthesinglemostabundantbenthicfishspecieswithdistributioncorrelatedwithdeepcoldsalinewaterassociatedwithlipid0 richcopepodsinthecanyonandadjacentBeaufortSeaslopeThecorrelationbetween belugaseasonaldistributionandmovementswithArcticcodoccurrenceprovidesanupper0trophiclinkandhighlightstheimportanceofBarrowCanyonandtheBeaufortSeaslopeas keyhabitatforbothspeciesinthisdynamicsectionofthemarginaldomain

TheRiverineCoastaldomainmarksthejuncturebetweenmarineandterrestrialecosystemsandthereforeazoneofkeyimportancetocoastal0dwellingpeopleduetotheirrelianceon resourcesfromtheseaforfoodandculturalwellbeing(Huntingtonetal2016)Bowheadwhalesareofcentralimportanceinthisregardwithextantvillagelocationsinfluencedby theirseasonalmigratorypatternsOkkonenetal(inpress)providesaninnovativesynthesisofbiophysicaldataleadingtoatypicalaggregationsofbowheadsintheriverinecoastal domainofcentralAlaskanBeaufortintwoofthepasttwentyyearsUnderstandingcausal factorsforshiftingpatternsofwhaleoccurrenceisofgreatinterestbothtolocalpeopleandtomanagementagenciesseekingtosupportsafeandeffectivehuntingpracticesThe formulationofeffectivebowheadwhaleco0managementpracticesisperhapsoneoftheclearestsuccessstoriesofthepastfortyyearsRobardsetal(inpress)describehowtheprocessofknowledgeco0productionhasledtothispositiveoutcomeandidentifyfive elementsfundamentaltothedevelopmentlocallyrelevantactionableknowledgeItisfurtherdevelopmentofthesetypesofsocio0ecologicaltoolsthatcanaidcommunicationacross cultures

OVERALLSOARCONTEXTANDCONCLUSION

TheSOARprojectisjustoneofseveralrecentattemptstocombinemultidisciplinarydataandobservationstobetterunderstandthestateandtrajectoryofarcticmarineecosystemsIn additiontothefirstSOARspecialissue(MooreandStabeno2015)otherspecialissuesfocusedonthePacificArcticincludetheArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(Mueteretal 2017)theHannaShoalEcosystemStudy(Duntonetal2017)andtheChukchiSeaOffshoreMonitoringinDrillingArea0ChemicalandBenthosproject(Duntonetal2014)OthernotableeffortsincludeacompendiumofinformationforthenortheasternChukchiSea (HopcroftandDay2013)thePacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(Grebmeieretal2015chttppacmarscblumcesedu)andavolumeofpapersprovidingapan0Arctic multidisciplinaryperspective(Wassman2015)Whiletheseexamplesallhavearegionalfocusotherrecentreviewsofclimatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemshaveadopted mechanisticframeworksincludingdirectphysiologicalandclimate0mediatedpredator0prey

44

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

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47

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FeelyRADoneySCCooleySR2009Oceanacidificationpresentconditionsandfuture changesinahigh0CO2worldOceanography2236047

FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015DivergentpatternsofrecentseaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049

GeorgeJCBadaJZehJScottLBrownSEOharaTampSuydamR1999Ageandgrowthestimatesofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)viaasparticacid racemizationCanadianJournalofZoology775710580

GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgress inOceanography1362500262

GilesKALaxonSWRidoutALWinghamDJBaconS2012WesternArcticOceanfreshwaterstorageincreasedbywind0drivenspin0upoftheBeaufortGyreNature Geoscience51940197

GrebmeierJMOverlandJEMooreSEFarleyEVCarmackECCooperLWFreyKEHelleJHMcLaughlinFAMcNuttSL2006AmajorecosystemshiftinthenorthernBeringSeaScience311146101464

GrebmeierJM2012ShiftingpatternsoflifeinthePacificArcticandsub0arcticseasAnnual ReviewofMarineScience41610166

GrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(2014)ThePacificArcticRegionAnIntroductionIn GrebmeierJMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionSpringerDordrecht

48

GrebmeierJMMooreSE Overland JEFrey KEandGradinger R2010BiologicalresponsetorecentPacificArcticseaiceretreatsEOS91(18)1610168

GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarke JTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSH LovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015aEcosystemcharacteristicsand processesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114

GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDenisenkoSGIkenKKedraMSerratosC 2015bTime0seriesbenthiccommunitycompositionandbiomassandassociatedenvironmentalcharacteristicsintheChukchiSeaduringtheRUSALCA200402012programOceanography231160133

GrebmeierJMCooperLWAshjianCABluhmBACampbellRBDuntonKEMooreJ OkkonenSSheffieldGTrefryJPasternakSY2015cPacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(PacMARS)FinalReportNorthPacificResearchBoard259pp

HannayDEDelarueJMouyXMartinBSLearyDOswaldJNVallartaJ2013 MarinemammalacousticdetectionsinthenortheasternChukchiSeaSeptember2007ndashJuly2011ContinentalShelfResearch671270146

HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015Change intheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

HillVArdynaMLeeSHVarelaDEinpressDecadaltrendsinphytoplankton productioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

preferenceandbehaviorinthenortheasternChukchiSea1982084RepIntWhale Commn362730279

MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Moore

TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

Mathis

UsinganEnvironmentalIntelligenceFrameworktoEvaluatetheImpactsof

OceanAcidificationintheArctic

ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

26(Jan(2017(

Moore

The

Arc

tic M

arin

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lses

Mod

el l

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nnua

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Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 45: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

responsesevidencedbyuppertrophicspecies(egSydemanetal2015)Weintroducedthe AMPmodelasaconceptualframeworkforthePacificArcticregioninthefirstSOARspecial issue(MooreandStabeno2015)NowintheprecedingdiscussionofPhase2oftheSOARprojectwehaveusedtheecologicaldomainframeworkoftheAMPmodelasatoolfora synthesisofinformationregardingthecurrentstateandpossibletrajectoryofthePacificArcticmarineecosystemInsodoingwebringamechanisticapproachtoaregionalanalysisIn2011wedidnotsetouttodeveloptheAMPmodelratheritwasthefruitionofthefirst phaseofSOARThemorefullydevelopedAMPmodelandtheextensivenewsynthesesand findingsoverviewedinthisfinalreportfortheSOARprojecthavemovedustowardreaching thethreemainobjectivesoftheSOARprojectWehaveincreasedscientificunderstandingoftherelationshipsamongoceanographicconditionsandmarinelifeinthePARwehave enhancedthescientificcommunityscapabilitytopredictfuturechangesinoceanographyand associatedchangesinthebehaviorofmarinemammalsandtheirpreyinthePARandwehavecommunicatedfindingsofsynthesisactivitiestoresourcemanagerslocalArctic residentsnationalandinternationalsciencesocietiesandthegeneralpublic

45

LITERATURE)CITED)

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ArrigoKRand vanDijkenGL2015ContinuedincreasesinArcticOceanprimaryproductionProgressinOceanography13660070

AshjianCJBraund SRCampbell RGGeorgeJC Kruse JMaslowski WMooreSE Nicolson CROkkonen SR SherrBF Sherr EBandSpitz Y2010Climate variabilityoceanographybowheadwhaledistributionandInupiatsubsistence whalingnearBarrowAlaskaArctic63(2)1790194

BerlineLSpitzYH AshjianCJ CampbellRG Maslowski WandMoore SE2008 EuphausiidtransportintheWesternArcticOceanMarineEcologyProgressSeries360 1630178

BlackwellSBRichardsonWJGreeneCRStreeverB2007Bowheadwhale(Balaena mysticetus)migrationandcallingbehaviorintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaautumn2001004 anacousticlocalizationstudyArctic602550270

BlockBAJonsenIDJorgensenSJ+18co0authors2011TrackingapexmarinepredatormovementsinadynamicoceanNature475doi101038nature10082

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CarmackEWassmannP2006Foodwebsandphysical0biologicalcouplingonpan0Arctic shelvesunifyingconceptsandcomprehensiveperspectivesProgressinOceanography714460477

CarmackEWinsorPWilliamsW2015ThecontiguouspanarcticRiverineCoastal DomainaunifyingconceptProgressinOceanography13913023

46

CittaJJQuakenbushLTOkkonenSRDruckenmillerMLMaslowskiWClement0 KinneyJGeorgeJCBrowerHSmallRJAshjianCJHarwoodLAHeide0Joslashrgensen MP2015Ecologicalcharacteristicsofcore0useareasusedbyBeringndashChukchindashBeaufort(BCB)bowheadwhales2006ndash2012ProgressinOceanography1362010222

CittaJJOkkonenSRQuakenbushLTMaslowskiWOsinskiRGeorgeJCSmallRJ BrowerJrHHeide0JoslashrgensenMPHarwoodLAinpressaOceanographiccharacteristicsassociatedwithautumnmovementsofbowheadwhalesintheChukchi Sea

CittaJJQuakenbushLTLondonJMFrostKJFischbachASLowryLFOrsquoCorry0Crowe GJayCVCrawfordJABovengPLCameronMVonDuykeALNelsonMHarwoodLARichardPSuydamRHeide0JoslashrgensenMPHobbsRCLitovkaDI GeorgeJCKellyBPSmithTGKennedyAGoodwinJOrrJGrayTinpressbOverlapofmarinemammalrangesandmulti0speciescoreuseareasasynthesisof satellitetelemetrydatainthePacificArctic

ClarkCWBerchokCLBlackwellSBHannayDEJonesJPonirakisDStaffordKM 2015AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesintheBeringChukchiand BeaufortseasProgressinOceanography1362230240

CooperLWGrebmeierJMinpressDepositionpatternsontheChukchishelfusingradionuclideinventoriesinrelationtosurfacesedimentcharacteristics

CrawfordJAQuakenbushLTCittaJJ2015Acomparisonofringedandbeardedsealdiet conditionandproductivitybetweenhistorical(1975ndash1984)andrecent(2003ndash2012)periodsintheAlaskanBeringandChukchiseasProgressinOceanography1361330150

CrossJNMathisJTPickartRSBatesNRinpressFormationandtransportofcorrosive waterinthePacificArcticregion

DanielsonSLWeingartnerTJHedstromKSAagaardKWoodgateRCurchitserEStabenoPJ2014Coupledwind0forcedcontrolsoftheBering0Chukchishelfcirculation andtheBeringStraitthroughflowEkmantransportcontinentalshelfwavesand variationsofthePacific0ArcticseasurfaceheightgradientProgressinOceanography12540061

DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarcticsea iceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161

DruckenmillerMLCittaJJFergusonMCClarkeJTGeorgeJCQuakenbushLinpressTrendsinsea0icecoverwithinbowheadwhalehabitatsinthePacificArctic

47

DuntonKHGrebmeierJM andTrefry JH2017HannaShoalAnintegrativestudyofaHighArcticmarineecosystemintheChukchiSeaDeepSeaResearchPartIIDOI 101016jdsr2201709001

Dunton KH Grebmeier JM and Trefry JH2014ThebenthicecosystemofthenortheasternChukchiSeaanoverviewofitsuniquebiogeochemistryandbiological characteristicsDeep0SeaResearchII102108

ErbeCReichmuthCCuninghamKLukeKDoolingR2015CommunicationmaskinginmarinemammalsareviewandresearchstrategyMarinePollutionBulletin httpdxdoiorg101016jmarpolbul201512007

EllisonWTRaccaRClarkCWStreeverBFrankelASFleishmanEAnglissRBergerJKettenDGuerraMLeuMMcKennaMSformoTSouthallBSuydamR ThomasL2016Modelingtheaggregatedexposureandresponsesofbowheadwhales BalaenamysticetustomultiplesourcesofanthropogenicunderwatersoundEndangeredSpeciesResearch30950108

FeelyRADoneySCCooleySR2009Oceanacidificationpresentconditionsandfuture changesinahigh0CO2worldOceanography2236047

FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015DivergentpatternsofrecentseaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049

GeorgeJCBadaJZehJScottLBrownSEOharaTampSuydamR1999Ageandgrowthestimatesofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)viaasparticacid racemizationCanadianJournalofZoology775710580

GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgress inOceanography1362500262

GilesKALaxonSWRidoutALWinghamDJBaconS2012WesternArcticOceanfreshwaterstorageincreasedbywind0drivenspin0upoftheBeaufortGyreNature Geoscience51940197

GrebmeierJMOverlandJEMooreSEFarleyEVCarmackECCooperLWFreyKEHelleJHMcLaughlinFAMcNuttSL2006AmajorecosystemshiftinthenorthernBeringSeaScience311146101464

GrebmeierJM2012ShiftingpatternsoflifeinthePacificArcticandsub0arcticseasAnnual ReviewofMarineScience41610166

GrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(2014)ThePacificArcticRegionAnIntroductionIn GrebmeierJMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionSpringerDordrecht

48

GrebmeierJMMooreSE Overland JEFrey KEandGradinger R2010BiologicalresponsetorecentPacificArcticseaiceretreatsEOS91(18)1610168

GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarke JTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSH LovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015aEcosystemcharacteristicsand processesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114

GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDenisenkoSGIkenKKedraMSerratosC 2015bTime0seriesbenthiccommunitycompositionandbiomassandassociatedenvironmentalcharacteristicsintheChukchiSeaduringtheRUSALCA200402012programOceanography231160133

GrebmeierJMCooperLWAshjianCABluhmBACampbellRBDuntonKEMooreJ OkkonenSSheffieldGTrefryJPasternakSY2015cPacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(PacMARS)FinalReportNorthPacificResearchBoard259pp

HannayDEDelarueJMouyXMartinBSLearyDOswaldJNVallartaJ2013 MarinemammalacousticdetectionsinthenortheasternChukchiSeaSeptember2007ndashJuly2011ContinentalShelfResearch671270146

HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015Change intheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

HillVArdynaMLeeSHVarelaDEinpressDecadaltrendsinphytoplankton productioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

preferenceandbehaviorinthenortheasternChukchiSea1982084RepIntWhale Commn362730279

MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

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Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

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Page 46: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

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WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Moore

TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

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UsinganEnvironmentalIntelligenceFrameworktoEvaluatetheImpactsof

OceanAcidificationintheArctic

ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

26(Jan(2017(

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 47: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

CittaJJQuakenbushLTOkkonenSRDruckenmillerMLMaslowskiWClement0 KinneyJGeorgeJCBrowerHSmallRJAshjianCJHarwoodLAHeide0Joslashrgensen MP2015Ecologicalcharacteristicsofcore0useareasusedbyBeringndashChukchindashBeaufort(BCB)bowheadwhales2006ndash2012ProgressinOceanography1362010222

CittaJJOkkonenSRQuakenbushLTMaslowskiWOsinskiRGeorgeJCSmallRJ BrowerJrHHeide0JoslashrgensenMPHarwoodLAinpressaOceanographiccharacteristicsassociatedwithautumnmovementsofbowheadwhalesintheChukchi Sea

CittaJJQuakenbushLTLondonJMFrostKJFischbachASLowryLFOrsquoCorry0Crowe GJayCVCrawfordJABovengPLCameronMVonDuykeALNelsonMHarwoodLARichardPSuydamRHeide0JoslashrgensenMPHobbsRCLitovkaDI GeorgeJCKellyBPSmithTGKennedyAGoodwinJOrrJGrayTinpressbOverlapofmarinemammalrangesandmulti0speciescoreuseareasasynthesisof satellitetelemetrydatainthePacificArctic

ClarkCWBerchokCLBlackwellSBHannayDEJonesJPonirakisDStaffordKM 2015AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesintheBeringChukchiand BeaufortseasProgressinOceanography1362230240

CooperLWGrebmeierJMinpressDepositionpatternsontheChukchishelfusingradionuclideinventoriesinrelationtosurfacesedimentcharacteristics

CrawfordJAQuakenbushLTCittaJJ2015Acomparisonofringedandbeardedsealdiet conditionandproductivitybetweenhistorical(1975ndash1984)andrecent(2003ndash2012)periodsintheAlaskanBeringandChukchiseasProgressinOceanography1361330150

CrossJNMathisJTPickartRSBatesNRinpressFormationandtransportofcorrosive waterinthePacificArcticregion

DanielsonSLWeingartnerTJHedstromKSAagaardKWoodgateRCurchitserEStabenoPJ2014Coupledwind0forcedcontrolsoftheBering0Chukchishelfcirculation andtheBeringStraitthroughflowEkmantransportcontinentalshelfwavesand variationsofthePacific0ArcticseasurfaceheightgradientProgressinOceanography12540061

DivokyGJLukacsPMDruckenmillerML2015Effectsofrecentdecreasesinarcticsea iceonanice0associatedmarinebirdProgressinOceanography1361510161

DruckenmillerMLCittaJJFergusonMCClarkeJTGeorgeJCQuakenbushLinpressTrendsinsea0icecoverwithinbowheadwhalehabitatsinthePacificArctic

47

DuntonKHGrebmeierJM andTrefry JH2017HannaShoalAnintegrativestudyofaHighArcticmarineecosystemintheChukchiSeaDeepSeaResearchPartIIDOI 101016jdsr2201709001

Dunton KH Grebmeier JM and Trefry JH2014ThebenthicecosystemofthenortheasternChukchiSeaanoverviewofitsuniquebiogeochemistryandbiological characteristicsDeep0SeaResearchII102108

ErbeCReichmuthCCuninghamKLukeKDoolingR2015CommunicationmaskinginmarinemammalsareviewandresearchstrategyMarinePollutionBulletin httpdxdoiorg101016jmarpolbul201512007

EllisonWTRaccaRClarkCWStreeverBFrankelASFleishmanEAnglissRBergerJKettenDGuerraMLeuMMcKennaMSformoTSouthallBSuydamR ThomasL2016Modelingtheaggregatedexposureandresponsesofbowheadwhales BalaenamysticetustomultiplesourcesofanthropogenicunderwatersoundEndangeredSpeciesResearch30950108

FeelyRADoneySCCooleySR2009Oceanacidificationpresentconditionsandfuture changesinahigh0CO2worldOceanography2236047

FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015DivergentpatternsofrecentseaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049

GeorgeJCBadaJZehJScottLBrownSEOharaTampSuydamR1999Ageandgrowthestimatesofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)viaasparticacid racemizationCanadianJournalofZoology775710580

GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgress inOceanography1362500262

GilesKALaxonSWRidoutALWinghamDJBaconS2012WesternArcticOceanfreshwaterstorageincreasedbywind0drivenspin0upoftheBeaufortGyreNature Geoscience51940197

GrebmeierJMOverlandJEMooreSEFarleyEVCarmackECCooperLWFreyKEHelleJHMcLaughlinFAMcNuttSL2006AmajorecosystemshiftinthenorthernBeringSeaScience311146101464

GrebmeierJM2012ShiftingpatternsoflifeinthePacificArcticandsub0arcticseasAnnual ReviewofMarineScience41610166

GrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(2014)ThePacificArcticRegionAnIntroductionIn GrebmeierJMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionSpringerDordrecht

48

GrebmeierJMMooreSE Overland JEFrey KEandGradinger R2010BiologicalresponsetorecentPacificArcticseaiceretreatsEOS91(18)1610168

GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarke JTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSH LovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015aEcosystemcharacteristicsand processesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114

GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDenisenkoSGIkenKKedraMSerratosC 2015bTime0seriesbenthiccommunitycompositionandbiomassandassociatedenvironmentalcharacteristicsintheChukchiSeaduringtheRUSALCA200402012programOceanography231160133

GrebmeierJMCooperLWAshjianCABluhmBACampbellRBDuntonKEMooreJ OkkonenSSheffieldGTrefryJPasternakSY2015cPacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(PacMARS)FinalReportNorthPacificResearchBoard259pp

HannayDEDelarueJMouyXMartinBSLearyDOswaldJNVallartaJ2013 MarinemammalacousticdetectionsinthenortheasternChukchiSeaSeptember2007ndashJuly2011ContinentalShelfResearch671270146

HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015Change intheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

HillVArdynaMLeeSHVarelaDEinpressDecadaltrendsinphytoplankton productioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

preferenceandbehaviorinthenortheasternChukchiSea1982084RepIntWhale Commn362730279

MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

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26PJanP2016(

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OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

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26PJanP2016(

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OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

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AnchorageAK

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TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

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AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

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24(Jan(2017(

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

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Page 48: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

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Dunton KH Grebmeier JM and Trefry JH2014ThebenthicecosystemofthenortheasternChukchiSeaanoverviewofitsuniquebiogeochemistryandbiological characteristicsDeep0SeaResearchII102108

ErbeCReichmuthCCuninghamKLukeKDoolingR2015CommunicationmaskinginmarinemammalsareviewandresearchstrategyMarinePollutionBulletin httpdxdoiorg101016jmarpolbul201512007

EllisonWTRaccaRClarkCWStreeverBFrankelASFleishmanEAnglissRBergerJKettenDGuerraMLeuMMcKennaMSformoTSouthallBSuydamR ThomasL2016Modelingtheaggregatedexposureandresponsesofbowheadwhales BalaenamysticetustomultiplesourcesofanthropogenicunderwatersoundEndangeredSpeciesResearch30950108

FeelyRADoneySCCooleySR2009Oceanacidificationpresentconditionsandfuture changesinahigh0CO2worldOceanography2236047

FreyKEMooreGWKCooperLWGrebmeierJM2015DivergentpatternsofrecentseaicecoveracrosstheBeringChukchiandBeaufortseasofthePacificArcticRegion ProgressinOceanography13632049

GeorgeJCBadaJZehJScottLBrownSEOharaTampSuydamR1999Ageandgrowthestimatesofbowheadwhales(Balaenamysticetus)viaasparticacid racemizationCanadianJournalofZoology775710580

GeorgeJCDruckenmillerMLLaidreKLSuydamRPersonB2015BowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaiceandupwellingintheBeaufortSeaProgress inOceanography1362500262

GilesKALaxonSWRidoutALWinghamDJBaconS2012WesternArcticOceanfreshwaterstorageincreasedbywind0drivenspin0upoftheBeaufortGyreNature Geoscience51940197

GrebmeierJMOverlandJEMooreSEFarleyEVCarmackECCooperLWFreyKEHelleJHMcLaughlinFAMcNuttSL2006AmajorecosystemshiftinthenorthernBeringSeaScience311146101464

GrebmeierJM2012ShiftingpatternsoflifeinthePacificArcticandsub0arcticseasAnnual ReviewofMarineScience41610166

GrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(2014)ThePacificArcticRegionAnIntroductionIn GrebmeierJMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionSpringerDordrecht

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GrebmeierJMMooreSE Overland JEFrey KEandGradinger R2010BiologicalresponsetorecentPacificArcticseaiceretreatsEOS91(18)1610168

GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarke JTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSH LovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015aEcosystemcharacteristicsand processesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114

GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDenisenkoSGIkenKKedraMSerratosC 2015bTime0seriesbenthiccommunitycompositionandbiomassandassociatedenvironmentalcharacteristicsintheChukchiSeaduringtheRUSALCA200402012programOceanography231160133

GrebmeierJMCooperLWAshjianCABluhmBACampbellRBDuntonKEMooreJ OkkonenSSheffieldGTrefryJPasternakSY2015cPacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(PacMARS)FinalReportNorthPacificResearchBoard259pp

HannayDEDelarueJMouyXMartinBSLearyDOswaldJNVallartaJ2013 MarinemammalacousticdetectionsinthenortheasternChukchiSeaSeptember2007ndashJuly2011ContinentalShelfResearch671270146

HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015Change intheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

HillVArdynaMLeeSHVarelaDEinpressDecadaltrendsinphytoplankton productioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

preferenceandbehaviorinthenortheasternChukchiSea1982084RepIntWhale Commn362730279

MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

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FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

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OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

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OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

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TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

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31PMarP2016(

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

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24(Jan(2017(

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 49: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

GrebmeierJMMooreSE Overland JEFrey KEandGradinger R2010BiologicalresponsetorecentPacificArcticseaiceretreatsEOS91(18)1610168

GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDanielsonSLArrigoKRBlanchardALClarke JTDayRHFreyKEGradingerRRKędraMKonarBKuletzKJLeeSH LovvornJRNorcrossBLOkkonenSR2015aEcosystemcharacteristicsand processesfacilitatingpersistentmacrobenthicbiomasshotspotsandassociatedbenthivoryinthePacificArcticProgressinOceanography136920114

GrebmeierJMBluhmBACooperLWDenisenkoSGIkenKKedraMSerratosC 2015bTime0seriesbenthiccommunitycompositionandbiomassandassociatedenvironmentalcharacteristicsintheChukchiSeaduringtheRUSALCA200402012programOceanography231160133

GrebmeierJMCooperLWAshjianCABluhmBACampbellRBDuntonKEMooreJ OkkonenSSheffieldGTrefryJPasternakSY2015cPacificMarineArcticRegionalSynthesis(PacMARS)FinalReportNorthPacificResearchBoard259pp

HannayDEDelarueJMouyXMartinBSLearyDOswaldJNVallartaJ2013 MarinemammalacousticdetectionsinthenortheasternChukchiSeaSeptember2007ndashJuly2011ContinentalShelfResearch671270146

HarwoodLASmithTGGeorgeJCSandstromSJWalkuszWDivokyGJ2015Change intheBeaufortSeaecosystemDivergingtrendsinbodyconditionandorproductioninfivemarinevertebratespeciesProgressinOceanography1362630273

HillVArdynaMLeeSHVarelaDEinpressDecadaltrendsinphytoplankton productioninthePacificArcticRegionfrom1950to2012

HopcroftRRDayRH(eds)2013SeasonalandinterannualdynamicsofthenortheasternChukchiSeaecosystemContinentalShelfResearch6710165

HuAMeehlGAHanWOtto0BliestnerBAbe0OuchiARosenbloomN2015Effectsof theBeringStraitclosureonAMOCandglobalclimateunderdifferentbackgroundclimatesProgressinOceanography1321740196

HuntingtonHPQuakenbushLTNelsonM2016Effectsofchangingsaiceonmarine mammalsandsubsistencehuntersinnorthernAlaskafromtraditionalknowledgeinterviewsBiologyLetters12doi101098rsbl20160198

HusseyNEKesselSTAarestrupKand9co0authors2015AquaticanimaltelemetryapanoramicwindowintotheunderwaterworldScience348doi 101126science1255642

JeffriesMOOverlandJEPerovichDK2013ThearcticshiftstoanewnormalPhysicsToday1035040

49

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

preferenceandbehaviorinthenortheasternChukchiSea1982084RepIntWhale Commn362730279

MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

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OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

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26PJanP2016(

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OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

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TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

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ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 50: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

KovacsKMLydersenC Overland JEandMoore SE2010Impactsofchangingseaice conditionsonArcticmarineMammalsMarineBiodiversity51065

KuletzKJFergusonMCHurleyBGallAELabunskiEAMorganTC2015Seasonal spatialpatternsinseabirdandmarinemammaldistributionintheeasternChukchiandwesternBeaufortseasIdentifyingbiologicallyimportantpelagicareasProgressin Oceanography1361750200

LeuESoslashreideHessenDOFalk0PetersenSBergeJ2011Consequencesofchangingsea0icecoverforprimaryandsecondaryproducersintheEuropeanArcticshelfseasTiming quantityandqualityProgressinOceanography9018032

LogerwellEBusbyMCarothersCCottonSDuffy0AndersonJFarleyEGoddardP HeintzRHolladayBHorneJJohnsonSLauthBMoultonLNeffDNorcrossB Parker0StetterSSeigleJSformoT2015FishcommunitiesacrossaspectrumofhabitatsinthewesternBeaufortSeaandChukchiSeaProgressinOceanography1361150132

LogerwellERandKDanielsonSSousaLinpressEnvironmentaldriversofbenthicfish distributioninandaroundBarrowCanyoninthenortheasternChukchiSeaandwestern BeaufortSea

LovvornJRRochaARJewettSCDasherDOppelSPowellAN2015Limitstobenthic feedingbyeidersinavitalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedpreyandchanging seaiceProgressinOceanography1361620174

LowryLFSheffieldGGeorgeJC2004BowheadwhalefeedingintheAlaskanBeaufortSea basedonstomachcontentanalysesJournalofCetaceanResearchandManagement6215ndash223

MacIntyreKQStaffordKMConnPBLaidreKLBovengPL2015Therelationship betweenseaiceconcentrationandthespatio0temporaldistributionofvocalizingbeardedseals(Erignathusbarbatus)intheBeringChukchiandBeaufortSeasfrom2008to2011ProgressinOceanography1362410249

MathisJTCooleySRLuceyNColtSEkstromJHurstTHauriCEvansWCrossJN FeelyRA2015OceanacidificationriskassessmentforAlaskarsquosfisherysectorProgressinOceanography13671091

MooreSE2016IsitlsquoboomtimesrsquoforbaleenwhalesinthePacificArcticregionBiology Letters12doi0251

MooreSEClarke JTand Ljungblad DK1986Acomparisonofgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus)andbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)distributionabundancehabitat

50

preferenceandbehaviorinthenortheasternChukchiSea1982084RepIntWhale Commn362730279

MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Moore

TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

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UsinganEnvironmentalIntelligenceFrameworktoEvaluatetheImpactsof

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ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

26(Jan(2017(

Moore

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

24(Jan(2017(

VanPelt

Synt

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s of A

rctic

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22(Apr(2017(

Moore

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 51: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

preferenceandbehaviorinthenortheasternChukchiSea1982084RepIntWhale Commn362730279

MooreSEStaffordKMMellingerDHildebrandJA2006Listeningforlargewhalesin offshorewatersofAlaska199902004BioScience5649055

MooreSEandHuntington HP2008Arcticmarinemammalsandclimatechange)impactsandresilienceEcologicalApplications18(2)S1570S165

MooreSEGeorgeJC Sheffield GBaconJ and Ashjian CJ2010Bowheadwhaledistribution andfeedingnearBarrowAlaskainlatesummer2005006Arctic63(2)1950205

MooreSEandGullandFMD2014LinkingmarinemammalandoceanhealthinthelsquoNewNormalrsquoarcticOceanandCoastalManagement10255057

MooreSEStabenoPJ2015SynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)inmarineecosystemsof thePacificArcticProgressinOceanography1361011

MooreSELogerwellEEisnerLFarleyEHarwoodLKuletzKLovvornJMurphyJ QuakenbushL2014Marinefishesbirdsandmammalsassentinelsofecosystem variabilityandreorganizationinthePacificArcticregionpp3370392InGrebmeierJM MaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidly changingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

MooreSEStabenoPJGrebmeierJMOkkonenSRinpressTheArcticMarinePulsesModellinkingannualoceanographicprocessestocontiguousecologicaldomainsinthePacificArctic

MueterFJandLitzow MA2008SeaiceretreataltersthebiogeographyoftheBeringSea continentalshelfEcologicalApplications183090320

MueterFJWeemsJFarleyEVSiglerMF2017ArcticEcosystemIntegratedSurvey(ArcticEis)MarineecosystemdynamicsintherapidlychangingPacificArcticGateway DeepSeaResearchPartIITopicalStudiesinOceanography135106 doi101016jdsr2201611005

NelsonRJAshjianCJBluhmBAConlanKEGradingerRRGrebmeierJMHillVJ HopcroftRRHuntBPVHyoungMJKirchmanDLKosobokovaKNLeeSHWilliamKWLLovejoyCPoulinMSherrEYoungKV2014Biodiversityand biogeographyofthelowertrophictaxaofthePacificArcticregionsensitivitiestoclimatechangepp2690336InGrebmeierJMMaslowskiW(eds)ThePacificArcticRegionecosystemstatusandtrendsinarapidlychangingenvironmentSpringerDordrecht

OgiMWallaceJM2012TheroleofsummersurfacewindanomaliesinthesummerArctic sea0iceextentin2010and2011GeophysicalResearchLetters39L09704

51

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Moore

TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

Mathis

UsinganEnvironmentalIntelligenceFrameworktoEvaluatetheImpactsof

OceanAcidificationintheArctic

ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

26(Jan(2017(

Moore

The

Arc

tic M

arin

e Pu

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nnua

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

24(Jan(2017(

VanPelt

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

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22(Apr(2017(

Moore

The

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 52: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

OkkonenSRAshjianCJCampbellRGClarkeJTMooreSETaylorKD2011Satelliteobservationsofcirculationfeaturesassociatedwithabowheadwhalefeedinglsquohotspotrsquo nearBarrowAlaskaRemoteSensingoftheEnvironment115216802174

OkkonenSRClarkeJTPotterRAinpressRelationshipsamonghighriverdischargesupwellingeventsandbowheadwhale(Balaenamysticetus)occurrenceinthecentral AlaskaBeaufortSea

PickartRSSchulzeLMMooreGWKCharetteMAArrigoKRvanDijkenGDanielsonSL2013aLong0termtrendsofupwellingandimpactsonprimaryproductivityinthe AlaskanBeaufortSeaDeep0SeaResearchI791060121

PickartRSSpallMAMathisJT2013bDynamicsofupwellingintheAlaskanBeaufortSeaandassociatedshelf0basinfluxesDeep0SeaResearchI7635051

PolyakovIPnyushkovAVAlkireMBAshikIMand12co0authors2017Greaterrolefor Atlanticinflowsonsea0icelossintheEurasianBasinoftheArcticOceanScience356 2850291

RandKMandLogerwell EA2010Thefirstdemersaltrawlsurveyofbenthicfishand invertebratesintheBeringSeasincethe1970sPolarBiologydoi101007

RandKLogerwellEBluhmBChenelotHDanielsonSIkenKSousaLinpressUsingbiologicaltraitsandenvironmentalvariablestocharacterizetwoArcticepibenthicinvertebratecommunitiesinandadjacenttoBarrowCanyon

RaveloAMKonarBTrefryJHGrebmeierJM2014Epibenthiccommunityvariabilityin thenortheasternChukchiSeaDeep0SeaResearchII1021190131

RobardsMDHuntingtonHPDruckenmillerMLefevreJMosesSKStevensonZWatsonAWilliamsMinpressUnderstandingandadaptingtoobservedchangesinthe AlaskanArcticactionableknowledgeco0productionwithAlaskaNativeCommunities

RodeKDRegehrEVDouglasDCDurnerGDerocherAEThiemannGWBudgeSM2013VariationintheresponseofanArctictoppredatorexperiencinghabitatloss feedingandreproductiveecologyoftwopolarbearpopulationsGlobalChangeBiology doi101111gcb12339

SheffieldGuyLMMoore SEandStabeno PJ2012aSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR) ScienceWorkshopReportBOEMOCSStudyBOEMndash201200031AnchorageAK

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSE andStabenoPJ 2012bMarineecosystemsynthesisFromphysicstowhalesinthePacificArcticEos93(48)501doi1010292012EO480007

SheffieldGuyLMMooreSEStabenoPJ2016WhatdoesthePacificArcticrsquosnewnormal meanformarinelifeEos97(24)14019

52

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

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26PJanP2016(

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OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

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TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

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AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

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rctic

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22(Apr(2017(

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60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 53: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

SpencerPD2008Density0independentanddensity0dependentfactorsaffectingtemporalchangesinspatialdistributionsofeasternBeringSeaflatfishFisheriesOceanography17 396ndash410doi101111j136502419200800486x

StaffordKMMooreSEBerchokCLWiigOslashLydersenCHansenEKalmbachDKovacsKM2012Spitsbergenrsquosendangeredbowheadwhalessingthroughthepolar nightEndangeredSpeciesResearch18950103

StaffordKMFergusonMCHauserDDWOkkonenSRBerchokCLCittaJJClarkeJTGarlandECJonesJSuydamRSinpressaBelugawhalesinthewesternBeaufort Seacurrentstateofknowledgeontimingdistributionhabitatuseandenvironmentaldrivers

StaffordKMCastelloteMGuerraMandBerchokCLinpressbSeasonalacoustic environmentsofbelugaandbowheadwhalecore0useregionsinthePacificArctic

StroeveJMSerrezeSDrobotSGearheardMMHollandJMaslanikWMeierandT Scambos2008Arcticseaiceextentplummetsin2007EOS89(2))13014

SydemanWJPoloczanskaEReedTEThompsonSA2015Climatechangeandmarine vertebratesScience3507720777

TremblayJ0EacuteRobertDVarelaDELovejoyCDarnisGNelsonRJSastriAR2012CurrentstateandtrendsinCanadianArcticmarineecosystemsIPrimaryproductionClimaticChangedoi101007s1058400120049603

WangMandOverland JE2009AnicefreesummerArcticwithin30yearsGeophysical ResearchLetters36L07502doi1010292009GL037820

WangMOverlandJE2015Projectedfuturedurationofthesea0ice0freeseasonintheAlaskanArcticProgressinOceanography13650059

WangMYangQOverlandJEStabenoPinpressSea0icephenologyinthePacificArctic thepresentandprojectionstomid0centurybyselectedSMIP5models

WoodKRBondNADanielsonSLOverlandJESaloSAStabenoPJWhitefieldJ 2015AdecadeofenvironmentalchangeinthePacificArcticregionProgressin Oceanography13612031

WoodgateRAWeingartnerTJLindsayR2012ObservedincreasesinBeringStraitoceanicfluxesfromthePacifictotheArcticform2001to2011andtheirimpactsonthe ArcticOceanwatercolumnGeophysicalResearchLetters39L24603doi1010292012GL054092

53

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Moore

TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

Mathis

UsinganEnvironmentalIntelligenceFrameworktoEvaluatetheImpactsof

OceanAcidificationintheArctic

ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

26(Jan(2017(

Moore

The

Arc

tic M

arin

e Pu

lses

Mod

el l

inki

ng a

nnua

l oce

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raph

ic p

roce

sses

toco

ntig

uous

eco

logi

cal d

omai

ns in

the

Paci

fic A

rctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

24(Jan(2017(

VanPelt

Synt

hesi

s of A

rctic

Res

earc

h (S

OA

R) ndash

Phy

sics

to m

arin

e m

amm

als i

n th

e Pa

cific

Arc

tic P

hase

II

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22(Apr(2017(

Moore

The

Synt

hesi

s of A

rctic

Res

earc

h (S

OA

R) P

rogr

am in

the

Paci

fic A

rctic

Sec

tor

Inte

rnat

iona

l Con

fere

nce

on A

rctic

Scie

nce

Res

ton

VA

(

(

(

(

60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 54: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

WybornCA2015Connectingknowledgewithactionthroughco0productivecapacities adaptivegovernanceandconnectivityconservationEcologyandSociety20110 httpdxdoiorg105751ES0065100200111

APPENDIX)A)ndash)LIST)OF)SOAR)2012)WORKSHOP)ATTENDEES)

Science)Steering) Committee)

Affiliation) Location)

RobynAngliss NOAANMML SeattleWA CarinAshjian WHOI WoodsHoleMA ChristopherClark Cornell IthacaNY JacquelineGrebmeier UMCES SolomonsMD CraigGeorge NSB BarrowAK TaqulikHepa NSB BarrowAK VeraMetcalf EWCKawerak NomeAK ChadJay USGS AnchorageAK TimRagan MMC WashingtonDC RobertSuydam NSB BarrowAK TomWeingartner UAFSFOS FairbanksAK ) ) ) Science)Contributors) Affiliation) Location) KevinArrigo Stanford StanfordCA CatherineBerchok NOAANMML SeattleWA SusannaBlackwell GreeneridgeSciencesINC SantaBarbaraCA BodilBluhm UAFSFOS FairbanksAK PeterBoveng NOAANMML SeattleWA EugeneBrower BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK JohnBurns ADFampG(ret) FairbanksAK RobertCampbell URI NewportRI JohnCitta ADFG FairbanksAK LeeCooper UMChesapeakeBioLab SolomonsMD RobertDay ABRInc FairbanksAK GeorgeDivoky FriendsofCooperIsland SeattleWA MatthewDruckenmiller UAFCIRES FairbanksAK KenDunton UofTexas AustinTX EdFarley NOAAAFSC JuneauAK MeganFerguson NOAANMML SeattleWA KarenFrey ClarkUniversity WorcesterMA DavidHannay JascoResearch VictoriaBCCAN LoisHarwood FisheriesandOceans YellowkniveNTCAN RussHopcroft UAFSFOS FairbanksAK

54

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Moore

TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

Mathis

UsinganEnvironmentalIntelligenceFrameworktoEvaluatetheImpactsof

OceanAcidificationintheArctic

ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

26(Jan(2017(

Moore

The

Arc

tic M

arin

e Pu

lses

Mod

el l

inki

ng a

nnua

l oce

anog

raph

ic p

roce

sses

toco

ntig

uous

eco

logi

cal d

omai

ns in

the

Paci

fic A

rctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

24(Jan(2017(

VanPelt

Synt

hesi

s of A

rctic

Res

earc

h (S

OA

R) ndash

Phy

sics

to m

arin

e m

amm

als i

n th

e Pa

cific

Arc

tic P

hase

II

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22(Apr(2017(

Moore

The

Synt

hesi

s of A

rctic

Res

earc

h (S

OA

R) P

rogr

am in

the

Paci

fic A

rctic

Sec

tor

Inte

rnat

iona

l Con

fere

nce

on A

rctic

Scie

nce

Res

ton

VA

(

(

(

(

60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 55: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

JoshJones Scripps SanDiegoCA MerlinKoonooka NativeVillageofGambell GambellAK KathyKuletz USFWSMBM AnchorageAK LibbyLogerwell NOAAAFSC SeattleWA JimLovvorn SouthernIllinoisU Carbondale WieslawMaslowski NavalPostgraduateSchool MontereyCA JeremyMathis UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JeffNapp NOAAAFSC SeattleWA GeorgeNoongwook NativeVillageofSavoonga SavoongaAK BrendaNorcross UAFSFOS FairbanksAK StephenOkkonen UAFSFOS FairbanksAK JimOverland NOAAPMEL SeattleWA SandyParker0Stetter UW SeattleWA RobertPickart WHOI WoodsHoleMA LoriQuakenbush ADFG FairbanksAK ScottRaborn LGL CollegeStationTX FentonRexford NativeVillageofKaktovik KaktovikAK KateStafford UW SeattleWA JohnTrefry FLInstituteofTechnology MelbourneFL RebeccaWoodgate UWAPL SeattleWA ) ) )

BOEM)Participants) Affiliation) Location)

HeatherCrowley BOEM AnchorageAK WarrenHorowitz CharlesMonnett

BOEM BOEM(retired)

AnchorageAKAnchorageAK

55

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Moore

TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

Mathis

UsinganEnvironmentalIntelligenceFrameworktoEvaluatetheImpactsof

OceanAcidificationintheArctic

ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

26(Jan(2017(

Moore

The

Arc

tic M

arin

e Pu

lses

Mod

el l

inki

ng a

nnua

l oce

anog

raph

ic p

roce

sses

toco

ntig

uous

eco

logi

cal d

omai

ns in

the

Paci

fic A

rctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

24(Jan(2017(

VanPelt

Synt

hesi

s of A

rctic

Res

earc

h (S

OA

R) ndash

Phy

sics

to m

arin

e m

amm

als i

n th

e Pa

cific

Arc

tic P

hase

II

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22(Apr(2017(

Moore

The

Synt

hesi

s of A

rctic

Res

earc

h (S

OA

R) P

rogr

am in

the

Paci

fic A

rctic

Sec

tor

Inte

rnat

iona

l Con

fere

nce

on A

rctic

Scie

nce

Res

ton

VA

(

(

(

(

60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 56: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

56

APPEN

DIX(B(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTORS(AND(INSTITUTIONS(

Science(Contributors(

Affiliation(

Location(

Specialty(

Kevin(Arrigo(

Stanford

StanfordCA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

Catherine(Berchok(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Acoustics

Susanna(Blackw

ell(

GreeneridgeSciencesINC

SantaBarbaraCA

Acoustics

Bodil(Bluhm

( UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Benthic

Peter(Boveng(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Eugene(Brower(

BarrowWhalingCaptainsAssn BarrowAK

LocalandTraditionalKnowledge

John(Burns(

ADFG(ret)

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadMammals

Robert(Cam

pbell(

URI

NewportRI

Zooplankton

John(Citta(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Lee(Cooper(

UMChesapeakeBioLab

SolomonsMD

Chemistry

Robert(Day(

ABRInc

FairbanksAK

IndustryScienceLeadSeabirds

George(Divoky(

FriendsofCooperIsland

SeattleWA

Seabirds

Matthew

(Druckenmiller( NSIDC

BoulderCO

SeaIce

Ken(Dunton((

UofTexas

AustinTX

HannaShoalLeadBenthic

Ed(Farley(

NOAAAFSC

JuneauAK

Fish

Megan(Ferguson(

NOAANMML

SeattleWA

Mammals

Karen(Frey(

ClarkUniversity

WorcesterMA

NutrientsandPrimaryProd

David(Hannay(

JascoResearch

VictoriaBCCanada

Acoustics

Lois(Harwood(

FisheriesandOceans

YellowkniveNTCanada

Mammals

Russ(Hopcroft(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Zooplankton

Josh(Jones(

Scripps

SanDiegoCA

Acoustics

Merlin(Koonooka(

NativeVillageofGambell

GambellAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Kathy(Kuletz(

USFWSMBM

AnchorageAK

Seabirds

Libby(Logerwell(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Fish

Jim(Lovvorn(

SouthernIllinoisU

Carbondale

SeaDucks

Wieslaw

(Maslowski(

NavalPostgraduateSchool

MontereyCA

Physics

Jeremy(Mathis(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Chemistry

Jeff(Napp(

NOAAAFSC

SeattleWA

Zooplankton

George(Noongwook(

NativeVillageofSavoonga

SavoongaAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Moore

TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

Mathis

UsinganEnvironmentalIntelligenceFrameworktoEvaluatetheImpactsof

OceanAcidificationintheArctic

ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

26(Jan(2017(

Moore

The

Arc

tic M

arin

e Pu

lses

Mod

el l

inki

ng a

nnua

l oce

anog

raph

ic p

roce

sses

toco

ntig

uous

eco

logi

cal d

omai

ns in

the

Paci

fic A

rctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

24(Jan(2017(

VanPelt

Synt

hesi

s of A

rctic

Res

earc

h (S

OA

R) ndash

Phy

sics

to m

arin

e m

amm

als i

n th

e Pa

cific

Arc

tic P

hase

II

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22(Apr(2017(

Moore

The

Synt

hesi

s of A

rctic

Res

earc

h (S

OA

R) P

rogr

am in

the

Paci

fic A

rctic

Sec

tor

Inte

rnat

iona

l Con

fere

nce

on A

rctic

Scie

nce

Res

ton

VA

(

(

(

(

60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 57: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

Brenda(Norcross(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Fish

Isaac(Nukapigak(

KuukpikCorp

NuiqsutAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Stephen(Okkonen(

UAFSFOS

FairbanksAK

Physics

Jim(Overland(

NOAAPMEL

SeattleWA

SeaIceMeterology

Sandy(ParkerPStetter(

UW

SeattleWA

Fish

Robert(Pickart(

WHOI

WoodsHoleMA

Physics

Lori(Quakenbush(

ADFG

FairbanksAK

Mammals

Fenton(Rexford(

NativeVillageofKaktovik

KaktovikAK

LocalandTradtionalKnowledge

Scott(Raborn(

LGL

PinevilleLA

Fish

Kate(Stafford(

UW

SeattleWA

Acoustics

John(Trefry(

FLInstituteofTechnology

MelbourneFL

Chemistry

Rebecca(Woodgate(

UWAPL

SeattleWA

Physics

((

( (

( (

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

(

57

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Moore

TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

Mathis

UsinganEnvironmentalIntelligenceFrameworktoEvaluatetheImpactsof

OceanAcidificationintheArctic

ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

26(Jan(2017(

Moore

The

Arc

tic M

arin

e Pu

lses

Mod

el l

inki

ng a

nnua

l oce

anog

raph

ic p

roce

sses

toco

ntig

uous

eco

logi

cal d

omai

ns in

the

Paci

fic A

rctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

24(Jan(2017(

VanPelt

Synt

hesi

s of A

rctic

Res

earc

h (S

OA

R) ndash

Phy

sics

to m

arin

e m

amm

als i

n th

e Pa

cific

Arc

tic P

hase

II

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22(Apr(2017(

Moore

The

Synt

hesi

s of A

rctic

Res

earc

h (S

OA

R) P

rogr

am in

the

Paci

fic A

rctic

Sec

tor

Inte

rnat

iona

l Con

fere

nce

on A

rctic

Scie

nce

Res

ton

VA

(

(

(

(

60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 58: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

APPEN

DIX(C(ndash(LIST(OF(SO

AR(CONTRIBUTOR(PRESEN

TATIONS(AT(SCIEN

TIFIC(MEETINGS(WORKSH

OPS(

AND(WEB

INARS(

Date(

Presenter(

Title(

Where(

16PJanP2012(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquoduringaperiodofrapidchange

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

17PJanP2012(

Stabeno

ChukchiAcousticsOceanographyandZooplankton(CHAOZ)Observations

onChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

10PAprP2012(

Stabeno

ObservationsintheChukchiSea

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

15PAugP2012(

Moore

MarineMammalsinthe NewNormal PacificArctic

USCGHealy

21PSepP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARproject

PacMARSmeeingAnnapolisMD

13PNovP2012(

Moore

SOARprogramoverview

NorthernOilandGasResearch

ForumAnchorageAK

10PDecP2012(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

PacMARSdatameetingBoulderCO

20PJanP2013(

Moore

AnoverviewoftheSOARProject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Clark

OverviewofSOARacousticsproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Ferguson

OverviewofKuletzFergusonSOARproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2013(

Grebmeier

OverviewofSOARBarrowCanyonproject

JointSOARYPacMARSmeeting

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2013(

SheffieldGuy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PFebP2013(

Moore

SOARprogramupdate

ScienceTechnicalAdvisoryPanel

FairbanksAK

25PFebP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sArcticVisionandStrategyUpdateonGoals2amp5

NOAAPMELSeattleWA

12PMarP2013(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationRiskAssessment(wonNOAASciencepaperaward)

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

12PMarP2013(

Moore

MarinemammalsandseaicelossinthePacificArctictrackingecosystem

responsestothelsquoNewNormalrsquo

GordonResearchConference

VenturaCA

26PMarP2013(

Moore

SOARProgramOverview

KeynotepresentationatWakefield

58

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Moore

TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

Mathis

UsinganEnvironmentalIntelligenceFrameworktoEvaluatetheImpactsof

OceanAcidificationintheArctic

ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

26(Jan(2017(

Moore

The

Arc

tic M

arin

e Pu

lses

Mod

el l

inki

ng a

nnua

l oce

anog

raph

ic p

roce

sses

toco

ntig

uous

eco

logi

cal d

omai

ns in

the

Paci

fic A

rctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

24(Jan(2017(

VanPelt

Synt

hesi

s of A

rctic

Res

earc

h (S

OA

R) ndash

Phy

sics

to m

arin

e m

amm

als i

n th

e Pa

cific

Arc

tic P

hase

II

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22(Apr(2017(

Moore

The

Synt

hesi

s of A

rctic

Res

earc

h (S

OA

R) P

rogr

am in

the

Paci

fic A

rctic

Sec

tor

Inte

rnat

iona

l Con

fere

nce

on A

rctic

Scie

nce

Res

ton

VA

(

(

(

(

60

Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
    • Caption
Page 59: Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR):)Physics) … · 2019-10-14 · Synthesis)of)Arctic)Research)(SOAR)) Physics)to)Marine)Mammals)in)the)Pacific)Arctic) FINAL)REPORT)—)June)13,)2018)!

59

SymposiumAnchorageAK

27PMarP2013(

Divoky

ShiftingpreyinameltingoceanSeabirdsrevealannualandseasonalchanges WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

inArcticnearshorefishpopulations

AK

27PMarP2013(

Arrigo

PresentationincludingSOARresults

WakefieldSymposiumAnchorage

AK

7PJunP2013( Sullivan

SOARincludedinpresentationtitledNOAAintheArctic2013External

WashingtonDC

Engagement

19PJunP2013(

Moore

NOAA

sroleintheDBOandSOAR

NOAAArcticDaysWashingtonDC

viaWebEx

20PJanP2014(

Guy

PosterSynthesisofArcticResearchYPhysicstoWhalesinthePacificArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

20PJanP2014(

Citta

PosterEcologicalcharacteristicsofcoreareasusedbywesternArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

bowheadwhales2006Y2012

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

George

WesternArcticbowheadwhalebodyconditionandlinkstosummerseaice

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

andupwellingintheBeaufortSea

AnchorageAK

21PJanP2014(

Kuletz

Seasonalandspatialpatternsinmarinebirdandmammalabundance

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

distributioninthePacificArcticAcomparisonofbiologicallyimpor

AnchorageAK

pelagicareas

and

tant

22PJanP2014(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationPerceptionsRisksandUncertainties

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

14PFebP2014(

Moore

Marinemammalsandoceanographyinthe New

PacificArcticregion 2014annualmeetingofthe

AmericanAssociationforthe

AdvancementofScienceChicagoIL

Normal

22POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

NOAA

sArcticEcosystemScience

ManagementWorkingGroup

(ESMWG)meetingAnchorageAK

30POctP2014(

Moore

SOARprogressandoverview

DistributedBiologicalObservatory

andPacificArcticGroupSeattle

WA

18PNovP2014(

Moore

ATaleofTwoSynthesis

PACMARSandSOARprogramsThe

webinarfortheAlaskaCenterfor

webinarisavailableonline

accapuafeduq=PacMARS_SOAR

ClimateAssessmentampPolicy

(ACCAP)

EffortsThe

https

1PDecP2014(

Divoky

TheEffectsofDecreasingSeaIceandIncreasingSeaSurfaceTemperatureon

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

anArcticSeabird

tonArcticCod

Dependen

1PDecP2014(

Harwood

lsquoWinnersandlosersrsquoinachangingBeaufortSeaEcosystemdivergingtrends

ArcticChangeOttawaCAN

inthebody

offivemarinevertebratespecies

condition

17PDecP2014(

Grebmeier

PacMARSSOARbriefing

AmericanGeophysicalUnion

meeting

12PAugP2015(

Stabeno

The

ArcticThePresentandFuture

NOAASeniorResearchCouncil

meetingSeattleWA

US

13PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

AGUSMMPolarMixeratthe

ExploratoriumSanFranciscoCA

16PDecP2015(

Moore

MarineMammalsasSentinelstoImpactsofClimateChangeonArcticMarine

Ecosystems

21st BiennialConferenceonMarine

MammalsSanFranciscoCA

21PDecP2015(

Citta

InterYannualvariabilityinthefallmovementsofbowheadwhalesinthe

ChukchiSeaPoster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

21PDecP2015(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Clark

AyearintheacousticworldofbowheadwhalesinthenorthernBering

ChukchiandBeaufortSeas

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Moore

TheSynthesisofArcticResearch(SOAR)ProgramStatusampPlans

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

22PDecP2015(

Lovvorn

LimitstoviabilityofacriticalArcticmigrationcorridorduetolocalizedprey

changingseaiceandimpendingindustrialdevelopment

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

SheffieldGuy

SynthesisofArcticResearchPhysicstoMarineMammalsinthePacificArctic

Poster

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

25PJanP2016(

Divoky

FourDecadesofChangeAnArcticSeabirdRespondstoaWarmingArctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Mathis

OceanAcidificationinthePacificYArcticBoundaryRegions

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Citta

OceanographicCharacteristicsAssociatedwithBowheadBehaviorsinthe

ChukchiSea

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

26PJanP2016(

Moore

TheArcticMarinePulsesModelLinkingContiguousDomainsinthePacific

ArcticRegion

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

31PMarP2016(

Mathis

UsinganEnvironmentalIntelligenceFrameworktoEvaluatetheImpactsof

OceanAcidificationintheArctic

ARCUSDCSeminarSeries

26(Jan(2017(

Moore

The

Arc

tic M

arin

e Pu

lses

Mod

el l

inki

ng a

nnua

l oce

anog

raph

ic p

roce

sses

toco

ntig

uous

eco

logi

cal d

omai

ns in

the

Paci

fic A

rctic

AlaskaMarineScienceSymposium

AnchorageAK

24(Jan(2017(

VanPelt

Synt

hesi

s of A

rctic

Res

earc

h (S

OA

R) ndash

Phy

sics

to m

arin

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Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

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Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

  • Structure Bookmarks
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Department of the Interior (DOI)

The Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nations natural resources and cultural heritage provides scientific and other information about those resources and honors the Nationrsquos trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians Alaska Natives and affiliated island communities

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

The mission of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is to manage development of US Outer Continental Shelf energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way

BOEM Environmental Studies Program

The mission of the Environmental Studies Program is to provide the information needed to predict assess and manage impacts from offshore energy and marine mineral exploration development and production activities on human marine and coastal environments The proposal selection research review collaboration production and dissemination of each of BOEMrsquos Environmental Studies follows the DOI Code of Scientific and Scholarly Conduct in support of a culture of scientific and professional integrity as set out in the DOI Departmental Manual (305 DM 3)

61

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SOAR - Weebly

SOAR - Weebly

Western Arctic Shelf-Basin Interactions (SBI III) … files...Western Arctic Shelf-Basin Interactions (SBI III) An ARCSS Synthesis Program Solicitation NSF 07-532 National Science

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AGU Town Hall Meeting on Arctic Data and Modeling Needs for Improved Arctic System Synthesis ARCSS Committee Data & Modeling Working Group Charles J. Vörösmarty,

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Soar system

Soar system

Arctic Land Surface Hydrology: Moving Towards a Synthesis Princeton University December 4-6, 2006.

Arctic Land Surface Hydrology: Moving Towards a Synthesis Princeton University December 4-6, 2006.

Arctic System Science (ARCSS) Synthesis Retreat Big Sky MT August, 2003.

Arctic System Science (ARCSS) Synthesis Retreat Big Sky MT August, 2003.

Soar Kansas

Soar Kansas

Northern Communities Strategic Document Synthesis · Inuit Arctic Policy Inuit Circumpolar Council Arctic Promoting Resilience and Adaptation in Coastal Arctic Alaska Alaska Landscape

Northern Communities Strategic Document Synthesis · Inuit Arctic Policy Inuit Circumpolar Council Arctic Promoting Resilience and Adaptation in Coastal Arctic Alaska Alaska Landscape

About the SOAR Literacy Teaching Frames Key Features SOAR ...

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SOAR Manakin

SOAR Manakin

Arctic Land Surface Hydrology: Moving Towards a Synthesis Global Datasets.

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Soar Part1

Soar Part1

Synthesis of Arctic Research (SOAR)

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The Arctic Synthesis Collaboratory: An Integrated Community-based Research Network

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Pacific!MarineArctic!Regional!Synthesis Make a word cloud ... Final Report E… · 1 EXECUTIVESUMMARY(The Pacific Marine Arctic Regional Synthesis (PacMARS) is a research synthesis

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Soar Markup Language (SML) - University of Michiganweb.eecs.umich.edu/~soar/ijcai16/Tutorial-2016-sml.pdf · 2016-07-07 · Soar 9 July 11, 2016 Soar Markup Language (SML) 3 Symbolic

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Synthesis of Arctic PP I- Historical data (field 14 C-, chl-derived NPP)

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arctic ocean synthesis: analysis of climate change impacts in the ...

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Synthesis of Modes of Ocean-Ice-Atmosphere Covariability in the Arctic System from

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The Soar User’s Manual Version 9.6 Soar User’s Manual Version 9.6.0 John E. Laird, ... 9 The Soar User Interface183 ... 4.1 A Soar 9.4.0 chunk ...

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