“Crisis communication,

legal issues and economic

impact of the Pandemic

Threat” on high profile manager

Today’s session

Moderator:

– Sébastien MODICOM

Chairman:

– Dr Jan-Cédric HANSEN

Contributor:

WELLCOME

Sébastien MODICOM

MG France

Agenda

9:00 am to 9:30 am– welcoming attendees (tea & coffee)

9:30 am to 11 am– Lecture from chairman (plenary session)

11 am to 12– Workshop (2 to 3 individuals per group)

12 am to 1 pm– Lecture from contributor (lunch)

1 pm to 1:30 pm– Workshop restitution and comments

1:30 pm to 1:45 pm – Q&A session

1:45 pm to 1:55– conclusion from chairman

Crisis and catastrophe

Crisis– Alarm signals are not

perceived at the same time nor with the same intensity by stakeholders

– Flags have been “red” for such a long time that all stakeholders are accustomed

– Those who worry feel isolated from managers and directors

– Although available and appropriate, prevention is not a priority

– Most of stakeholders still behave and think as if the situation was in control

Catastrophe– Disappearance/destruction

of frames and limits

– The “event” comes from this sudden confusion between “inside” & “outside”

– Your organisation can no longer – by its own means –control the situation

• Commercial and managerial logics often collide

– Information leaking is inevitable

• Ultimately impacting the whole public domain beyond stakeholders

THE PANDEMIC THREAT

TODAY

Current WHO phase alert is 5

Current situation

Continuous international spread

21 917

128

433

262

+ 3,000 infected per day

+ 100 infected per day

+ 1,000 infected per day

“we do not know the full number of people who are infected across the

entire spectrum” Dr Keiji Fukuda Assistant Director-General ad Interim for Health Security and Environment, World Health

Organization

Total A(H1N1) Death TollTotal H5N1 Infected

Total H5N1 Death Toll Total A(H1N1) Infected

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Total A(H1N1) Death Toll

Total H5N1 Infected

Total H5N1 Death Toll

Total A(H1N1) Infected

With remarkable parallel kinetics

Spain

0100020003000400050006000

Spain

Mexico

Mexico/Spain & USA/UK are paired in terms of evolution and trends

which drives one key conclusion

UK

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

UK

USA

Two main European entry points

Pop: 61 375 416case A(H1N1): 675 Death: 0

Pop: 46 157 822case A(H1N1): 331 Death: 0

Pop: 303 824 646case A(H1N1): 13 217 Death: 27

Pop: 109 955 400case A(H1N1): 5 717 Death: 108

Air traffic is the major contributor of pandemic spreading According to mathematical models reduction of 90% of air traffic will have minimal to no impact on spreading (Colizza, Barrat et al2006)

Close to phase alert 6?

Much of the current discussion at the WHO

– how one makes such assessments with

suggestions coming from the experts ranging

• from clinical assessments of illness

• up into economical impact

MODELLING THE FUTURE

The “pandemic curve”

Pandemic influenza typically occurs in one or more “waves” of approximately 15 weeks in duration. There

will be an inter-wave period of approximately 3 to 6 months prior to the second wave appearing. The peak

of the pandemic wave will normally occur over a 2 week period, usually during weeks 4 to 11 of the

approximately 15 week duration of the pandemic wave.

WE are

HERE

Proportion of the population infected in an epidemicThe proportion of the population infected in an epidemic, as a function of the basic reproduction number R0, and as predicted by the final size equation (Roberts, Baker et al.2006).

The symbols are the results from models of pandemic influenza obtained by the following authors: uptriangles, Ferguson et al. (2005); downtriangles, Ferguson et al. (2006); squares, Longini et al. (2005); circles, Germann et al. (2006); star, Wu et al. (2006).

Basic reproduction number

Impact in key European marketsUK Pop: 61 375 416case A(H1N1): 2506Death: 1

GDP: -1,9

D Pop: 82 369 548case A(H1N1): 275 Death: 0

GDP: -3,8

F Pop: 64 057 790case A(H1N1): 171Death: 0

GDP: -1,2

S Pop: 46 157 822case A(H1N1): 522Death: 0

GDP: -1,6

Total anticipated GDP loss in billions of US $

Source Oxford Economic Forecasting Group & StratAdviser Data on File

I Pop: 58 145 321 case A(H1N1): 88Death: 0

GDP: -2,0

Economic outcomes for UK

Known about seasonal Flu– November to April

• 9 weeks

– 4.2% pop contaminated• <15Y 15% to 50%

• 0.8% fatal

• Fatal >65Y

– Respiratory disease • 1/3 of medical consultations

• 8.3% GDP expenses

• 118 euros/hab/an

• 39 693 000 off days/an

– Mortality of A(H1N1)• 2,4% (Mexico)

• 0,1% (USA)

Probable about A (H1N1)– Department of Health’s modelling

guidelines for the UK are to prepare for

• a 15 week pandemic

• during which 50% of the population will become symptomatic

– Potential Death Toll*:• 153 738 (Worst case)

• 6 405 (Best case)

– The Kermack-McKendrickcompartimental model

• peak incidence of approximately 43,000 new cases per day

•

* 45 000 morts par mois en France toutes causes confondues

Incidence of infectionResults from the structured model when R0=2.0 and no control is applied. The incidence of infection. Curves are (from bottom to top) as follows: ı1(t), incidence in the household; ı1(t)+ı2(t), incidence in the household and schools; ı1(t)+ı2(t)+ı3(t), incidence in the household, schools and workplaces; and ı1(t)+ı2(t)+ı3(t)+ı4(t), total incidence. (Roberts, Baker et al . 2006).

Workplace comes2nd

WHAT SHOULD YOU

IDENTIFY & DO

Identify the real issues

Maintaining essential operations implies to explore and elaborate appropriate responses to– Large scale absenteeism impact due to

• Fear of going to work

• Closures of nurseries or schools

• Domestic travel or public transport restrictions

• Employee sickness or death (personal, family, …)

• Closing of premises for cleaning/disinfection

• Other

– High risk of business disruption due to• Failure to meet corporate contractual obligations

• Inability to meet product or service commitments (raw materials shortage, suppliers failure, sub-contractor services/products defect, logistics restrictions, …)

• Significant financial losses / loss of market-share

• Potential of severely damaged reputation

RESOURCES ASSESSMENT

General purpose documentation

Designed for the general population therefore:

• Doesn’t tell what to do at the office

• Doesn’t respond to questions such as

• If I cough or sneeze at work what do I do?

• If one of my colleague cough or sneeze at work

what do I do?

• If one of my employee cough or sneeze at work

what do I do?

Reference documentation

General information

designed to frame the

duties of employers

and employees as well

as advertise the

Government

preparedness

regarding health and

Safety issues with a

focus on the pandemic

threat

Business oriented documentation

Designed for business owner therefore elicit

specific issues like:

“consider how best to manage people who

develop symptoms consistent with an

Influenza like Infection in the workplace”

BUT

• Doesn’t tell how

• Doesn’t suggest practical solutions

• Doesn’t address the impact of office fans or

conditioned air systems

Have only 2 ½ pages over 27 really dedicated

to workplace

Inspirational documentation

Checklist developed specifically to identify important and

specific activities which organisations can do to prepare for

a pandemic therefore provide a list of key actions:

• Check impact of a pandemic on your business

• Check impact of a pandemic on your employees and

customers

• Establish policies to be implemented during a

pandemic

• Allocate resources to protect employees and customers

during a pandemic

• Communicate to and educate your employees

• Co-ordinate with external organisations and help your

community

BUT

Doesn’t provide any info on how to achieve those with whom

and to what cost

DIRECTORS’ REAL

CONCERN

Business Continuity Plan & Pandemic Threat

Directors’ point of view

You certainly already ask yourself practical questions such as:– How can my employees not be exposed?

– What measures should I take to protect them?

– If I have a case of illness among my employees, what do I do?

– What measures should I take to protect myself?

You know that all these questions must be addressed today– Because it is compulsory

– Because corporate manslaughter is never far away

– Because such questions have direct impact on your P&L

It’s easier than you think

Establish an authorised and competent team to select the relevant partner to work with in order to:– Plan on how to deal with the emotional impact of such

events on the individual’s family as well as the workforce in general

– Develop pre-planned media statements for use when needed

– Prepare contingency statements for delivery to your workforce

– Elaborate early communications to suppliers and customers to set expectations

– Communicate with key stakeholders and the media regularly

Maximize your ROI/ROE

Advertise your company Business continuity plan as soon as possible as – a truly competitive edge

– an added value contributor

Monitor the immediate ROI/ROE delivered by this initiative– Impact on sales

– Impact on customer loyalty

– Impact on manpower

– Impact on fame

Use your relevant partner skills to support you on this

CRISIS COMMUNICATION

Appropriate tools and methodology for your

Define your communication strategy

Integrate long terms objectives such as

– future desired belief of your target audience

– future desired behaviour of your target audience

Choose your strategic objective

– Demonstrate your ability to deal with crisis

– Demonstrate your transparency regarding

communication

– Demonstrate your expertise/skills as managers

– …

Specificity of a crisis environment

Integrate that crisis communication– Target numerous diverging sources

– Interest numerous receptors (your stakeholders)

– Address them in a non synchronised manner

– With conflicting information

Keep in mind that– Internal and external communication are not distinct anymore

– Public media tend to take over professional media in terms of communication pressure

– Information circuit behave in odd manners• Malfunction appears at the collectors level, vectors/vehicules of

information or data interpretation level

– Usual communication rules become useless

– Communication hits back like a boomerang on those who believe they are not concerned

Key success factors

Always apply the 3 communication rules

– Legitimacy

• Legitimacy gives you the right to communicate

• It derives from a pre existing decision of your target audience

– Credibility

• Credibility gives you the opportunity to deliver a message, to inform and hopefully to persuade

• It comes from a deliberation of your target audience who can grade it (from “incredible” to “clearly demonstrated”)

– Captation

• Captation provides impregnation and memorisation

• It is acknowledged by your target audience

– All of the above build a “communication contract” between you and your target audience

Appropriate information format

Any information you deliver to your target

audience should be:

– Designed for each segment of target audience

– Consistent among segment of target audiences

– Reliable and sourced

– Adapted to media needs and constrains

– Highly condensed and attractive

– Practical allowing immediate use

– Widely disseminated thus redundant

• To limit access time later

Tasks of the specific organisation

A joint team with a relevant partner which– Collect useful information/data to elaborate messages

– Validate available information/data

– identify relevant segment of target audience requiring information

– Assess information needs of each segment of target audience

– Determine communication objectives according to each segment needs

– Build messages according to communication objecitves and target audience segment

– Assess/identify potential positive and negative impact scenarios of messages prior to release

– Evaluate the real impact/interpretation of the message both in time and spatial dimensions

Global overview of available vectors

Sales forces Direct MKT PRLeave

behindMedia

Stakeholders

Evaluation of • source’s intensity

• source’s coherence

• source’s homogeneity

Adherence to messages with trust building or message is rejected

Company’s

spokespersonAuthorities

Working group in charge

of communication

In conclusion

With our combined expertise

– consultancy backed up by a legal assessment

• developed hereafter by Carpentier-avocats

We can help you find the answer

– which is the sole guarantee of your business

continuity

CASE STUDY

Workshop (2 to 3 individuals per group)

Situational analysis

The pandemic grade has been raised to

Level 6 yesterday evening

– In response to this announcement, health

authorities have decided (among others) to close

the Underground until appropriate adaptation have

been achieved to protect the London Population

while commuting

Your assignment

1. Write 5 immediate measures selected from your company’s business continuity plan to match your manpower shortage with your client’s requirements

2. Elaborate the 5 sentences message you want to send to your employees – select appropriate vector

3. Elaborate the 5 sentences message you want to send to your clients – select appropriate vector

4. Elaborate the 5 sentences message you want to send to your suppliers – select appropriate vector

Advices

Inspire yourself with the use of your own

business continuity plan during the current

transportation union plan

If you don’t have such a business continuity

plan, inspire yourself with the decisions that

have been taken yesterday in your company

ENJOY!

Social and Lunch break

CROSSFEEDING OF

CONTRIBUTIONS

Workshop restitution and comments

CARPENTIER, AVOCATS

Lecture from contributor (plenary session)

Q&A SESSION

Carpentier, avocats

ATTENDEES

FEEDBACK/EXPECTATIONS

Questionnaire & interviews

Tell us

What was missing or frustrating from this

conference?

What was in line with your expectations?

What was above your expectations?

What do you expect most for next time?

CHAIRMAN’S CONCLUSION

Dr Jan-Cedric Hansen