Causality BetCausality between inflation and inflationween Inflation and Inflation
Swedish experiences of monetary policy with an inflation target Governor Stefan Ingves.
7
Swedish experiences of monetary policy with an inflation target Governor Stefan Ingves
-
Upload
dorthy-perry -
Category
Documents
-
view
217 -
download
1
Transcript of Swedish experiences of monetary policy with an inflation target Governor Stefan Ingves.
Swedish experiences of
monetary policy with an inflation
target
Governor Stefan Ingves
Inflation and growthAnnual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
1971-1990 1995-2005 1971-1990 1995-2005CPI 8.6 1.1 2.8 1.0GDP 2.1 2.8 1.4 1.2
Standard deviationAverage
CPI inflation, underlying inflation (UND1X)
and tolerance limitsAnnual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16CPIUnderlying inflation (UND1X)
Inflation and inflation expectationsAnnual percentage change
Sources: Prospera Research AB and Statistics Sweden
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5CPIInflation expectations
Implied forward rates Per cent
Source: The Riksbank Note. Implied forward rates are calculated as a 15-day average
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
04 05 06 07 08 09-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Repo rate
Rep rate assumption 12 Oct 2006
Inflation - UND1XAnnual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5UND1X
Forecast, Inflation report 2006:3
GDP, SwedenAnnual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecasts
0
1
2
3
4
5
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 090
1
2
3
4
5
GDP
