Sustainable Urban Public Transport: CO2 emissions

reductions and related benefits

D. NAVIZET, TONGJI UNIVERSITY SHANGHAI, Nov. 2008

1. The relevance of urban public transport for AFD in China

2. Qualitative approaches to CO2 reduction in the urban transport sector

3. Quantitative approaches to CO2 reduction in the urban transport sector

4. Conclusions

Sustainable Urban Public Transport: CO2 emissions reductions & co-benefits

1. AFD and Urban Transport in ChinaAgence Française de Développement

Public industrial and commercial firm held by the French government. 1,300 staff, offices in 45+ countries, active in 60+ countries

Core business: Financing Sustainable DevelopmentApproved financing in 2006 : EUR 3.1 Billions TOTALApproved financing in 2007 : EUR 3.3 Billions TOTALTo be approved financing in 2008: EUR 4+ Billions TOTAL

Until 2004: Economic development and Poverty alleviation

Since 2005: Fight against Climate Change

AFD in ChinaFinancing Climate Change Mitigation

1. In accordance with China’s national action plan against climate change

2. Financing, energy saving, CO2 emissions reduction projects

3. Trying to promote Sino-French partnerships

Concessional Loan Financing: Around EUR 500 millions since 2005

In 2008: EUR 150 millions for reconstruction in Sichuan and energy efficiency EUR 80 millions for railways construction

Four Broad Areas for Project Financing:

Low-CarbonPower Production

SustainableUrban Development

SustainableRural Development

Energy Efficiency in Industry and Services

Relevance of Urban Transportation Energy & Climate Change

The bulk of CO2 emissions takes place in cities:

• Urban activities consume up to 75% of fossil energy (Industry, Transport, Buildings…)

• The share of transport is rising faster than any other while its efficiency is deteriorating

Cities are growing at a very fast rate

• Not new, but numbers are adding up

• We’re seeing the limits of all out development

Cities are vulnerable to global issues

• If they have planned to rely on abundant resources

• Climate change can have dramatic consequences on cities

Urbanization in China45% of urban people today

75% of urban people in 2050?

Today: 750 millions non urban people

Around 300 millions new urban people by 2025

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1950 1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040

CHINA

Urb

an P

opul

atio

n (M

illio

ns)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1950 1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040

CHINA

Urb

aniz

atio

n ra

te

2. Qualitative approaches to CO2 emissions reductions in urban transport

The way in which cities develop has a structuring effect on their consumption of resources in the long run

• Challenges are not only technical and sector challenges

• City planners have a profound influence on a city’s efficiency

How to achieve significant CO2 emissions reductions

Increase PTmodal share

Manage &Reduce demand

Provide EfficientTransport

Technology&

Ressources

Time&

Cost

CO2EmissionsReductions

WITHOUT GOOD PLANNING AND POLICIES

How to achieve significant CO2 emissions reductions

Increase PTmodal share

Manage &Reduce demand

Provide EfficientTransport

Technology&

Resources

Time&

Cost

CO2EmissionsReductions

WITH GOOD PLANNING AND POLICIES

How to achieve significant CO2 emissions reductions

• CO2 reductions must be: efficient, cost effective, timely

• Policy options sometimes matter more than technical options

Business as usual

Technology

Policy

Co-benefits

Carefull planning which aims at minimizing energy consumption most of the time results in significant co-benefits

ECONOMICAL, SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL COBENEFITS

1. Capital savings.2. Savings can either be used to expand coverage of service

or invest in other sectors.3. Less pollution, better environment.4. Less pollution, better health for all.5. Of course: less CO2 emissions

Financing Climate Change Mitigation in the Urban Transportation Sector in China

AFD’s approach: In the framework of the Sino French bilateral agreement on Sustainable Urban Development.

1. Promote Energy and Climate Awareness in city planning2. Promote Public Transport3. Include Energy and Carbon Balance in projects appraisals4. Foster Sino French partnerships5. Provide Financial resources

AFD’s On-going Activities in Urban Transportation:1. Comprehensive Transportation Plan in Guiyang2. Energy, City planning, Buildings and Transport with

CCICED

3. Quantitative approaches to CO2 emissions reductions in urban transport

Quantifying CO2 reductions in urban transport is very difficult

• The alternate scenario is hard to define.

• Urban transport is a complex system.

• Transport demand forecast are sometimes inaccurate.

• Difference between absolute and relative CO2 reduction

• Energy saving and CO2 saving is different

Carbon credits in public urban transport…

• So far only one project methodology was approved

• Without good policy and planning, the costs of CO2 reduction is much higher than carbon prices…

Quantifying CO2 emissions reductionsWhat we can say…

• Must also take account of construction emissions

• Always possible to estimate the order of magnitude of energy savings and CO2 emissions. The rest is uncertain.

• Impact of modal switch: 1% switch from private cars to public transport => 1MtCO2 avoided over 20 years for the 10M travels/day scenario. => Entails a part of absolute reductions. In best cases such as Bogota transmillenio, the order of magnitude is 100,000 tCO2 per year.

• Impact of fuel switch: to be computed carefully, with well to tank analysis (e.g. electricity, natural gas), => Usually high relative reductions, but growth negates absolute reductions.

• Impact of mass transit mode…

Impact of mass transit mode…

• There is considerable literature comparing MRT, LRT, BRT…

• Very similar energy and CO2 savings. Order of magnitude ranges from 10,000 to 100,000 tCO2 per year.

• Wide range of capital costs, capacity, implementation time…

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

MRT Tramw ay Bus MC Car

gCO2/p.km

LRT

So what about BRT?When needed capacity can be accomodated by BRT• Low investment costs: economical viability• More coverage for the same investment• Fast implementation and Operational flexibility• Adequate for cities with large roads (such as in China)• Structuring power and policy tool

However, must not be considered as a temporary solution, to be discarded when a MRT can be built.

Must be part of an overall transport plan:• Integrated with other modes: bus, walking, cycling… metro.• Make use of information systems to provide high level of service:

reliability, confort, safety.

Will yield maximum energy and CO2 reductions per invested capital

Will yield roughly as much energy and CO2 reductions as heavier modes

Financing Climate Change Mitigation in the Urban Transportation Sector in China

AFD’s approach for public transport projects

1. Project must be part of an overall transport strategy2. No unique technical solution3. Start from reliable, reasonable transport demand forecast4. Include Energy and Carbon Balance in projects appraisals5. Projects must yield CO2 reduction6. Always seek co-benefits 7. Foster Sino French partnerships8. Provide Financial resources

4. CONCLUSIONS1. Promote integrated, energy and climate aware city planning

2. Promote public transport policy packages rather than focus on only one stand-alone technical option or mode

3. Only in this way can there be realistic quantification of energy and CO2 emissions reductions.

4. Then the capital cost of one ton of CO2 saved can be reduced to be in line with the carbon market prices

Financing CO2 emissions reduction in Sustainable Urban Transport in China