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Day1, Plenary 7, No.1Asian Development Bank
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SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT
ADB Strategy, Approach ADB Strategy, Approach and and Innovative InitiativesInnovative Initiatives
Priyanka SoodPriyanka SoodUrban Development SpecialistUrban Development Specialist
OVERVIEWOVERVIEW
Strategy 2020
DMCs’ Challenges in Urban Development
Sustainable Urban Development Strategy
Sustainable Urban Development In Practice
Select Programs/InitiativesSelect Programs/Initiatives
Select Projects
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STRATEGY 2020STRATEGY 2020Asia and Pacific Region free of poverty
Approved 2008; sets strategic course for operations to year 20202020
focus on inclusive economic growth, environmentally sustainable growth, and regional integration
Core operational areas to include infrastructure, environment including climate change to account for 80% of lending
Private sector development, private sector operations to be 50% of business
DMC URBAN CHALLENGEDMC URBAN CHALLENGEAsia in the beginnings of the urbanization century
Challenge is, in equal measure:
infrastructure ‐ already inadequate; unable to keep pace with population growth
institutional capacity – for planning, management systems, governance, coordination across sectors and administrative boundaries falling behind
Environment ‐ about half of GHG world emissions over next 20 years to come from Asian cities; especially vulnerable to climate change
Urban poverty ‐ 70% of dire poverty world over in Asian cities; if nothing changes urban poor to reach 625 million by 2015
Resource mobilization – funding requirements enormous; unlikely to be met without mobilizing large amounts of private funds
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DMC URBAN CHALLENGEDMC URBAN CHALLENGEWhy we are where we are
Country urban assessments, strategies and road maps ‐mainly absent; when
available, mainly superficial and elementary
Projects and Programs put together in ad hoc manner little sectorallyProjects and Programs put together in ad‐hoc manner ‐ little sectorally integrated planning and long term view for infrastructure, management
Governance ‐ poor intergovernmental co‐ordination on responsibilities, finances
Outcomes ‐ short term view, temporary, unsustainable
Missing Big Picture ?I.e., Long‐term strategies based on analysis of, g g y
City, mega region needs w.r.t. infrastructure assets and services, institutions and governance structures
Determined by what cities, mega regions should contribute to eco growth, not by current states of serviceability
Over what time and at what cost
URBAN STRATEGYURBAN STRATEGYSustainable urban development embodying Economy, Environment, Equity
Pro‐active rather than reactive ‘Big picture’ focuscomprehensive country assessments, strategies, road maps constantly linked to
environmentally sustainable, urban economic growth objectives
infrastructure and service needs to support mega region growth for 25‐30 yrs
developing technical and managerial capacity for improved urban management
new forms of finance especially through private sector engagement
fl ibl ( h) d ifi b iflexible (enough) to adapt to specific urban circumstances
Supported by appropriate/reformed institutional, governancestructures
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ECONOMY, ENVIRONMENT, EQUITYECONOMY, ENVIRONMENT, EQUITY
Economy ‐ Urban Region Economic Development support demand‐driven local economic development (attract business and
investment) by taking advantage of economies of scale (accrue from clustering of physical/hard and soft infrastructure)physical/hard and soft infrastructure)
Equity ‐ Inclusive Urban Redevelopment address existing urban context through remedial investment to plug deficiencies in economic, social, environmental infrastructure; address future development through innovative solutions, capital investment necessary to settle growing urban poor populations
Environment ‐ Green Cities address existing urban context through remedial investments in buildings
(retrofitting), utilities (3Rs), incremental low carbon transport; address future development through eco‐industrial parks, integrated planning of transport and land, clean and renewable technologies
OPERATIONALIZING URBAN STRATEGYOPERATIONALIZING URBAN STRATEGY
Through: Innovative Initiatives and ProgramsBacked by: Coherent Financial Support
THE INITIATIVESTHE INITIATIVESA.A.Cities Development Initiative for Asia (CDIA) Cities Development Initiative for Asia (CDIA) (bridging gap between strategic urban development plans and implementation of infrastructure investments through comprehensive upstream support; seen as 'seed capital' for project preparation ‐ in the same way that there is 'seed capital'
for investment/ enterprise development)
A.A.Carbon Market Program (CMP)Carbon Market Program (CMP)(leveraging the growing $126 billion carbon market to supplement limited government resources through upstream and downstream support; ADB Co‐finance)
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A. CDIA A. CDIA ‐‐ INTERVENTION AREAINTERVENTION AREABridging the ‘Gap’ ‐ b/w infrastructure planning, prioritizing and investment
City
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Defining the Planning ‐> Infrastructure gap
CDIA Focus Areas
CDIA CDIA –– CITY LEVEL ACTIVITIESCITY LEVEL ACTIVITIES
advisory support for urban infrastructure programming and prioritization
consultancy support for preparation of pre‐feasibility studies for high priority infrastructure investment projects
identification of potential private sector involvement, capital market financing in early stages, and structuring projects for such involvement
local institutional capacity strengthening related to infrastructure investment planning and programming
advisory support to market investment proposals to potential financiers ‐ link cities and their investment proposals to local and international financiers
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WHY CDIA WORKS WHY CDIA WORKS Convening power ‐ involving, and coordinating with, different government levels and institutions (use ADB catalyzed planning)Country buy‐in; demand driven ‐ linkage to national programs; application based and flexible approachCapacity support ‐ structuring, investment planning support Financing support ‐ linking investment plans/projects to international and local investment funds, private equity, debt, ADB sub‐sovereign; how they might meshLeverage regional (Asia) and international networks ‐ project/program structuring, financing, capacity building
Other Dev Partners Urban Financing Partnership External(KfW, GTZ, NDF, Sida) Facility, UFPF (PPP, Pvt equity, Debt)
(ADB Internal)
B.B.CARBON MARKET PROGRAMCARBON MARKET PROGRAMAssist with tapping carbon markets as co‐financing resource to overcome upfront capital constraints esp. for green urban projects
technical support to developers, sponsors to prepare, implement GHG mitigating projects qualifying under Clean Development Mechanism (Technical Support Facility)
marketing support to governments, developers, investors to ‘securitize’ future carbon credits/cash flows in exchange for upfront capital (Credit Marketing Facility)
Other Dev Partners Future Carbon Fund External(Via FCF ‐ Swedish Energy Agency (ADB as Trustee; ADB Co‐finance) (POSCO, Eneco Energy PMV, Govts of Korea, Finland) Trade)
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WHY CMP WORKSWHY CMP WORKSPurchase post‐2012 carbon credits from projects proposed today‐ i.e., inducing developing (and developed) economies to invest in low‐carbon alternatives even in absence of a long‐term price signal
Pay upfront to help developing countries reduce the upfront capital constraint of installing clean energy systems
Proposed to project developers in conjunction with ADB financial support and the Technical Support Facility and Credit Marketing Facility
Associated costs and risks are largely reduced due to “piggy back” design dand strategy
– General technical, financial and legal due diligence carried out by ADB main operations to process/approve financing
– CDM specific due‐diligence carried out by CMI
ADB’s Program in the Urban Sector
Examples from South Asia1. Kathmandu Sustainable Urban Transport
Project, Nepal (CDIA, Technical Assistance, and Loan/Grant)
2. Climate-proofing Urban Infrastructure in Khulna Bangladesh (TechnicalKhulna, Bangladesh (Technical Assistance, proposed loans)
Norio SaitoSenior Urban Development SpecialistSouth Asia Department
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KATHMANDUSUSTAINABLEURBAN
Kathmandu Sustainable Urban Transport Project
TRANSPORTPROJECT(Loan 2656 and Grant 0212)
Kathmandu Mobility - At a Glance
Disorganized Public Transport I it bl Sh i
Kathmandu Sustainable Urban Transport Project
Demand for Capacity
Unrestricted Vehicle Movement
Inequitable Sharing
Worsening Air Quality196 197 197 192
200
0
50
100
150
200 196 197 197 192200
0
50
100
150
200
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Chaotic & Congested Traffic
Private Investment: Public Transport
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The Government of Nepal, with support from ADB, proposed the VISION for Sustainable Urban Transport:
Together with the private sector, and the public in general, the government will :-
Kathmandu Sustainable Urban Transport Project
1. Encourage people to travel by public transport or foot,
2. Discourage the use of private motorised vehicles, in particular from entering the central area of Kathmandu,
3. Improve movement (all modes), especially within the central area of Kathmandu,
4. Improve air quality and reduce carbon emissions, and4. Improve air quality and reduce carbon emissions, and
5. Improve transport equity.
ADB Assistance:
• $20 million ($10M ADF Loan and $10M ADF Grant)
• Administration of a $2.8 million Grant from GEF (proposed)
Kathmandu Sustainable Urban Transport Project
Total : $22.8 million
Plus : $7.9 million as counterpart from Government
TOTAL Project: $30.7 million
For 4 components :
A : Improvement of Public Transport
B : Improvement of Traffic Management
C : Improvement of Walkability
D : Improvement of Air Quality Monitoring
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Vision / Ouptuts Investment Institutional and soft component
1 Improve PT
Implementation of two pilot lines:•Bus stops and lay-bys•Priority route around Thundikel•Terminals in peripheryL / t t i t t t h
•Restructuring + capacity building of DoTM•Reorganization plan of the PT network•Trolley bus reintroduction FS+PD
Kathmandu Sustainable Urban Transport Project
•Loans/grants to private operators to purchase and maintain electric vehicles
•Trolley-bus reintroduction FS+PD Reports
2. Improve Traffic Management
•Improvement of 14 junctions•Equipment for the MTPD (8 traffic signals; 21 CCTV cameras and control center; 21 radio handsets)
•Capacity development program for the MTPD•Awareness campaign for improved driving behaviors
3. Improve W lk bilit
•Pedestrianization of Heritage routes•Sidewalks improvement in city-center•Upgrading of 2, and construction of 2 new
•PPP advisory support for the redevelopment of the Old Bus parkWalkability pedestrian bridges
•Improvement of the interchange facility and public space on Kanthi Path
redevelopment of the Old Bus park and the construction of parking
4.Improve air quality monitoring
•Equipment of existing stations with solar power back-up systems•Provision of 2 new mobile stations•Equipment for emission/mechanical testing
•Awareness campaign•Data dissemination
MTPD = Metropolitan Traffic Police Division, DoTM = Department of Transport Management
ClimateClimate--proofing Urban Infrastructure for Khulna, proofing Urban Infrastructure for Khulna, Bangladesh (TA 7197Bangladesh (TA 7197--BAN)BAN)
Objectives • Identify and assess impacts of climate• Identify and assess impacts of climate
change on urban drainage system and surface water supply system (for two planned investment projects of ADB –City Region Development Project and Khulna Water Supply Project); and
• Provide adaptation options to climate-proof the proposed investments.
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South West RegionKCC AreaProject Area
KhulnaKhulna
Approach andMethodology Deriving scenario’s 2030-2050
climate socio-economic development
Development and application of computational framework
Review of available data and information
Surveys to collect add. data and info
Setting objectives, design criteria and evaluation criteria
Ch. 2
Deriving scenario’s 2030-2050
climate socio-economic development
Climate (model) analysis
Climate scenarios A2 – High CO2
Khulna W t
Integrated scenarioslow trend high
Ch. 3
Analysis, incl.:- Base and reference cases - Identif ication and Analysis of
adaptation options- Evaluation of options
Khulna Kh l
Integrated scenarioslow trend high
Ch. 3
analysis
Regional Hydraulic
Model
Urban Drainage
Modelwater levels
Sea level, rainfall, temp
rainfall intensities
flooding extent, depth and duration
Salinity M d l
flows
A2 High CO2emissions (business-as-usual)B1 – Low CO2emissions (sustainable development)
Khulna urban
drainage
Water supply Khulna
workshopsreporting
training
stake-holders
Ch. 7
Ch. 4Ch. 5 Ch. 6
Khulna Water
Supply
Khulna Urban
DrainageCh. 5 Ch. 6
salinities
ModelSea Level RisePlausible High –25 cm in 2030 and 40 cm in 2050Plausible Low –10 cm in 2030 and 20 cm in 2050
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Climate model• Statistical downscaling was undertaken from a global climate model
(ECHAM5) to a finer resolution (0.5 X 0.5o), because statistical downscaling is preferred for rainfall analyses, the main concern of the study.
• The model outputs were bias corrected for rainfall and temperature.The model outputs were bias corrected for rainfall and temperature.The analyses indicate the following changes:• Average monthly temperature rise by 2050 would vary from +0.5°C
in October to +1.7°C in January and February.• Annual rainfall would increase by about 5% by 2050 (1,860 mm/year
for A2).• Rainfall would increase in the rainy season (month JJAS) by 14%
(~160 mm) but would decrease in the dry season (month DJF) by 45% (~20 mm)
• There would be a significant increase in heavy rainfall events : 50 mm or more rainfall in 6 hours will increase from 4.2 times/year to 5.9 times/year in 2050.
• These results are based on the outcomes of a single climate model. Other models indicate similar changes but there are still large uncertainties about the impact of climate change on rainfall in Bangladesh.
Impact of climate change on water resourcesDecreased river flows (water availability)Increased river salinityDecreased river flows (water availability)Increased river salinity
• Red points are the proposed p p pintake points for surface water supply.
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Observed Increase in Salinity
(Source: JICA report)
Intake Source Point Haridashpur Mollarhat U/S of Phultala Phultala Daulatpur Labanchara
Indicator
Modelled 95%
dependable flow (m3/s)
Base 33 84 26 48 83 301
Run 3a 31 80 25 44 77 283
Run 5a 30 77 26 45 81 288
Run 7a 31 80 25 44 77 283
Run 9a 30 78 26 44 80 286
Modeled Impacts of Climate Change
Maximum Salinity
Level (ppt Chloride)
Base 0.9 1.8 5.9 7.8 10.1 11.6
Run 3a 1.0 2.1 7.0 8.7 10.6 11.7
Run 5a 1.5 3.0 7.0 8.7 10.6 11.7
Run 7a 1.1 2.3 7.0 8.3 10.3 11.6
Run 9a 1.6 3.0 7.0 8.7 10.6 11.7
No. of days in a year river salinity
> 0.6ppt1
Chl id
Base 0 59 126 145 161 175
Run 3a 6 62 128 145 162 176
Run 5a 16 89 128 149 163 176
Run 7a 7 65 132 152 162 175Chloride Run 7a 7 65 132 152 162 175
Run 9a 25 86 142 155 163 175
No. of days in a year river salinity
> 1.0ppt1
Chloride
Base 0 41 114 134 153 168
Run 3a 0 42 125 135 153 171
Run 5a 2 65 128 137 154 172
Run 7a 0 43 127 139 154 169
Run 9a 4 70 126 140 155 170
Notes: 3a = 2030, A2, High SLR, 5a = 2050, A2, High SLR, 7a = 2030, B1, High SLR, 9a = 2050, B1, High SLRDurations are for 15% exceedance probability. This means that there is a 15% chance that this duration can be exceeded in any year. Another way to view this is that this duration of salinity can occur once in around every 7 years.
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Adaptation OptionsCore optionsRelocate Mollarhat intake by 4km
• Increase in salinity duration at Mollarhat Relocate Mollarhat intake by 4km
upstream by 2050Increase impounding reservoir size by 12MCM by 2050More abstraction of groundwater (not studied in detail)
by 24 days in 2050
(not studied in detail)
Add-on optionsWater demand managementReduce non-revenue water
Evaluation of Options
Socialb f l ff d ( )Number of people affected (+/‐)
Tariff (water rates)Public acceptanceResettlement requirementImpact on poor
Economic (cost effectiveness analysis)Investment costsOperation and maintenance costs
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Evaluation of Options
Units Option WS1 Option WS2
Option DescriptionRelocate Mollarhat intake
Expand Impounding ReservoirOption Description Mollarhat intake Reservoir
Economic CriteriaE.1 Investment Costs (Capital
Expenditure)E.1.1 Raw water pipeline
construction (4km by 2050)M Taka 587 a
E.1.2 Impounding reservoir expansion (12MCM by 2050)
M Taka 2,033 b
E.2 O&M CostsE.2.1 Water supply M Taka/yr 1.68 a 1.96 b
a. 2050 Adaptation construction cost is about 4% of total original investment (235 mUSD). Similarly, O&M cost increases by around 1% (assuming cost is 6,000 USD/yr/km).
b. 2050 Adaptation construction cost is about 12% of total original investment (235 mUSD). Similarly, O&M cost increases by around 2% (assuming cost is 2.3 USD/yr/m3).
Evaluation of Options
Units Option WS1 Option WS2
Option DescriptionRelocate Mollarhat intake
Expand Impounding ReservoirOption Description Mollarhat intake Reservoir
Social CriteriaS.1 Estimated Number of people
affected# 16 Households More than 20
HouseholdsS.2 Tariff (water rates) +/- No issue for
Mollarhat. Tariff will increase for Khulna residents.
Free volume of minimum requirements of water for local people
S.3 Public acceptance +/- Positive Need to manage S. ub c ccep ce / os ve eed o gesupport
S.4 Resettlement requirement Yes/No No YesS.5 Impact on poor +/- Poor people likely to
be displaced. S.6 Overall health impact +/- Positive Positive
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Impact of climate change on city drainage
Increased rainfall intensityyIncreased outfall water level due to SLR
Urban floods (waterlogging) will be more serious with
li t hclimate change.
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Base: Do nothing scenario
2050: Do nothing scenarioWith climate change
A2 + High SLR
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ScenariosFF F0 F1 F2 F3
Damaging Water Depth
91 180
Percent of Area Water Logged in Khulna City with Climate Change
0 - 10 cm 11- 30 cm 31-60 cm 61-90 cm91-180
cm F1+F2+F3
Base 10 yr 64 7 26 3 0 29
Base 5-yr 81 7 11 1 0 11
2030-10yr 60 7 28 5 0 34
2030-5yr 71 8 19 2 0 21
2050-10yr 42 3 23 28 3 54
2050-5yr 58 10 28 4 0 32
Adaptation Options
• Khulna urban drainage– Core options (combination of the below)
Wid /d d i• Widen/deepen drains• Lay new drains• River dredging• Sluice gate
– Add-on optionsG d lid t t• Good solid waste management
• Awareness and education campaigns• Strict implementation of building codes and urban
planning measures• Improved prediction and early warning system
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Evaluation Framework• Social
N b f l ff t d (+/ )– Number of people affected (+/-)– Public acceptance– Resettlement requirement– Overall health impact
• Economic (cost-benefit analysis)– Investment costs (base improvement first,
adaptation measures next)– Operation and maintenance costs– Damage costs and benefits
• Costs of adaptation (Realistic Scenario)5 Year Return Period 10 Year Return Period
Evaluation of Options
Design Event Investment Cost O&M CostInvestment
Cost O&M Cost
Tk (Mil)
USD (Mil)
Tk (Mil)/yr
USD (Mil)/yr
Tk (Mil)
USD (Mil)
Tk (Mil)/yr
USD (Mil)/yr
Base Improvement 493 7 751 11
2030 Ad t ti 64 0 9 24 0 4 39 0 6 15 0 2Adaptation 64 0.9 24 0.4 39 0.6 15 0.2
2050 Adaptation 1,312 19 101 1.4 1,167 17 89 1.3
Note:Adaptation investment cost for climate change is on top of base improvement cost.Similarly, adaptation O&M cost is on top of annual costs without climate change.
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Base: Improved drainage system
Design Criteria:Design Criteria: Keep 80% of area
flood-free (less than 30 cm in depth) in each ward of the city
for a 10-year return period
fl d
Estimated investment cost:
$11 millionflood.
2050: CC with improved drainage
A2 + High SLR
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2050: CC, with improvement and additional adaptation
A2 + High SLR
Estimated investment cost
(incremental cost): $17 million
Design Event Measures
FF0-10
cm
F011- 30
cm
F131-60
cm
F261-90
cm
F391-180
cm
Damaging Water Depth
F1+F2+F3
Percent of City Area Water Logged with Climate Change
2030 A2, 10
year
None 60 7 28 5 0 33
Base_Improvem. 79 7 13 1 0 14
Base_Imprv+Adap 82 7 10 1 0 11
2050 A2, 10
year
None 42 3 23 28 3 54
Base_Improvem. 64 8 22 7 0 29
Base_Imprv+Adap 80 6 11 3 0 14
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Economic Analyses
• Benefit-Cost ratio (Realistic Scenario)Evaluation of Options
– 40 years cash flow– 10% discount rate
Design EventNPV (m USD)
5 Yr return period 10 Yr return Period
Benefits 24.5 31.6
Costs 8.0 6.1
B‐C RATIO 3.1 5.2
Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is 35% and 111%, respectively, for the investment to meet the design criteria for 5‐year and 10‐year return periods. (If base improvement cost is added, IRR is 13.6% and 14.5%, respectively.)
Climate change is likely to impact Khulna’s water supply by:increasing salinity levels; and increasing the duration of salinity above 1 0 ppt Chloride (drinking
Conclusions
increasing the duration of salinity above 1.0 ppt Chloride. (drinking water quality standard in coastal areas in Bangladesh)
Proposed water supply project can be made more resilient to climate change (climate proofed) by relocating the water intake point further upstream or by increasing the impounding reservoir size. Climate change will likely aggravate Khulna’s urban flooding by increasing inundation: depths; areas; and durations. R ili f th b d i t ill b t th d bResilience of the urban drainage system will be strengthened by
increasing conveyance capacity of primary drains; andincreasing outfall capacities of several outlet structures.
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Conclusions (cont’d)
• Significant uncertainties in future scenariosg– Climate change projections, SLR– Socio-economic development of Khulna – Future land use pattern– Damage functions (which would change over time)– Discharge from the Ganges and Brahmaputra (human
intervention included)– Gorai river dredging
Further Thoughts on Adaptation
• Phased-development to strengthen resilience• Strengthening monitoring (salinity, rainfall, water g g g ( y, ,
discharge etc.) for model recalibration• Assess nature of investment/adaptation
measures(i) invest later if incremental investment will not result in additional costs(ii) invest now if benefits are expected even ( ) punder the current climate(iii) invest now in “no-regret” measures (most of the add-on options)(iv) invest now if the potential impacts are catastrophic and/or irreversible(v) invest later if the investment can be made
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Thank You!