Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways Research Joan Ogden€¦ · Joan Ogden . TTP Orientation...
Transcript of Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways Research Joan Ogden€¦ · Joan Ogden . TTP Orientation...
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Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways Research
Joan Ogden TTP Orientation Seminar
November 9, 2012
H2
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Global Population Density 1995 (persons per km2)
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Earth’s Cities at Night
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CHALLENGES FACING FUTURE ENERGY SYSTEM
• Growth of demand, esp. in developing countries
• Diversity/Security of Energy Supply, esp. in transportation sector
• Air Pollutant Emissions • Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) • Water, land, materials constraints
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FUEL SECTOR IS IMPORTANT • Direct combustion of fuels for transportation and
heating accounts for about 2/3 of primary energy use and GHG emissions, and a large fraction of air pollutant emissions.
• World transportation sector 97% dependent on oil. • # vehicles projected to triple worldwide by 2050 • In US, ~28% of GHG emissions are from
transportation (CA ~40%; 20% worldwide); transportation is rapidly growing GHG source in the US and globally.
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Addressing Transportation Energy Challenges
Reduced Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) • Carpooling • Mass transit
• Urban design • Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS)
Vehicle Technology • Advanced conventional vehicles (ICE) • Plug-in hybrid electric • Battery electric • Fuel cell electric
Climate change, Air quality, Energy security
A comprehensive energy strategy should have a “portfolio” approach with multiple solutions
Fuel Alternatives • Hydrogen • Biofuels • Electricity • Low-carbon liquid fuels (coal / NG with sequestration)
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STABILIZATION WEDGES (Pacala, Socolow)
CA 2050 GHG Goal: 80% below 1990 level
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Doubling vehicle efficiency could become one “wedge”, zero-carbon fuels another
15 WAYS TO MAKE A WEDGE
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POTENTIAL FOR VEHICLE ENERGY EFFICIENCY (ICEVS 2X +)
SOURCE: Heywood (2007).
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REDUCING VMT “Recent studies show that substantial reductions in
travel and emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases are possible (10%-30%, compared to the future base case), but only with combined transportation investment, land use, and travel pricing policies.”
R. A. Johnston et al. 2007. Review of U.S. and European Regional Modeling Studies of Policies Intended to Reduce Highway Congestion, Fuel Use, and Emissions
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POTENTIAL FOR ALTERNATIVE FUELS • Growing imperative for alternative fuels Oil supply security Climate Change
• Search for solutions by policymakers, industry Innovative Policy Landscape
• Continuing tech progress in variety of alt fuel and vehicle technologies Biofuels Electricity (Plug-in Hybrid vehicles, Battery vehicles) H2/Fuel Cell Vehicles Fossil-based fuels w/Carbon Capture and Sequestration
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History of alternative fuel vehicles (US)
Will the future be different? MAYBE..
All Vehicles and Alt Fuel Vehicles
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History of alternative fuel vehicles (US)
References: Davis, Transportation Energy Data Book (2008)
Alternative Fueled Vehicles (1000s)
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CURRENT FUEL/VEHICLE PATHWAYS (ROAD VEH.)
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FUTURE FUEL/VEHICLE PATHWAYS (ROAD VEH.)
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Transport Fuels Today (94% petroleum-based)
IEA Energy Technology Perspectives (2010)
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CURRENT STATUS: ALTERNATIVE FUELS AND VEHICLES
Alternatives to the internal combustion vehicles run on petroleum-based fuels have had limited success thusfar.
• ICEVs >99% of the global on-road vehicle fleet
• 94% of transportation fuels come from petroleum.
• Alternative fuels are ~5-6% of total transport energy use, 2% of which is biofuels.
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VEHICLE COMMERCIALIZATION TAKES TIME
Source: Cunningham, Gronich and Nicholas, presented at the NHA Meeting, March 2008.
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emonstratio
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INTRODUCING INNOVATIONS IN VEHICLES time constants: 20-60 years
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REFUELING STATIONS FOR GASOLINE & ALTERNATIVE FUELS
Gasoline CNG
Methanol Ethanol
~100+ H2refueling stations worldwide
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HISTORICAL DATA: MAJOR US TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURES
time constants: 30-70 years
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TRANSITIONS TAKE TIME • Tech and cost issues for key technologies
Fuel cells
Advanced batteries
Low-C fuel conversion pathways (Biofuels, renewables, fossil w/Carbon Capture and Sequestration)
• Market adoption of vehicle innovations Historically, 20-60 years from R&D to >35% of fleet
• Building new transportation infrastructure Historically, 30-70 years
• Policy driving major change (>10 years?)
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H2
www.steps.ucdavis.edu
NextSTEPS Program Overview Dr. Joan Ogden, Director
Dr. Dan Sperling, Co-Director
Dr. Lew Fulton, Co-Director
Paul Gruber, Manager
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Research consortia at ITS-Davis have evolved to consider more complex alt.
fuel/vehicle rollouts
Fuel Cell Vehicle Modeling Program
1998-2002
FCV Technology
Hydrogen Pathways
2003-2006
FCVs & H2 Fuel
Pathway
STEPS
2007-2010
Fuel/Vehicle Pathway Analyses
& Comparisons
NextSTEPS
2011-2014
Scenarios & Transition Strategies
1998 2014
GOAL: Generate visions of the future grounded in technical and economic realities, a strong knowledge base for companies making long-term technology investments, and sophisticated analyses of future policies.
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STEPS Program Outputs (2007-present) • RESEARCH Research papers (journals, conferences, tech. reports)
Sponsors’ workshops on research
White papers (key research results)
• OUTREACH/POLICY ENGAGEMENT Service on CA, US, international panels, committees
Policymakers’ briefings and workshops
Testimony
• EDUCATION 25 Graduate degrees by end of 2011 (mostly Ph.D. level);
courses taught
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Major Learning from STEPS: a portfolio approach is needed
Most important insight from STEPS research: a portfolio approach combining efficiency, alt fuels and VMT reduction will give us the best chance of meeting stringent goals for a sustainable transportation future. Given the uncertainties, and the long timelines, it is critical to nurture a portfolio of key technologies toward commercialization and to start now. All our work in characterizing pathways and comparing them flows toward this conclusion.
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2011-2014 NextSTEPS (Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways) Research Consortium
• Generates new insights about the transitions to a sustainable transportation energy future – Hydrogen, Biofuels, Electricity, Fossil Fuels
• Disseminates knowledge to decision-makers in industry and government
• 23 sponsors, 26 research leaders, 29 graduate students
• 120+ research projects • Builds on the success of STEPS program
(2007-2010)
RESEARCH OUTREACH EDUCATION + +
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Hydrogen
Fuel Cell Vehicles H2-ICE Vehicles
Biofuels
Bio-ICE Vehicles 2nd Gen Biofuels
Electricity
Battery-electric Plug-in hybrids
Fossil Fuels
Bus. as usual Natural Gas
Low-carbon fuels (incl. CCS)
Transition Dynamics (Consumer Demand & Behavior, Innovation & Business Strategy)
Models & Analyses (Infrastructure, Env./Energy Cost Analyses, Vehicle Tech. Eval., VMT/Travel Behavior)
Policy Analysis (market instruments, fuel requirements, sustainability standards)
Integrative Scenarios & Transition Strategies
NextSTEPS research focuses on: Scenarios & Transition Strategies
(2011-2014)
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Fuel pathways Cross-comparative* 48
Fossil fuels 42 (Natural Gas) 17
(CCS) 7
Electricity 29 Biofuels 28
Hydrogen 17
Geographies U.S. 51
Global** 34 California 45
Comparative 21 China 8 India 3
Europe 5 * 2 or more fuels/vehicle technologies ** 3 or more regions
NextSTEPS projects are cross-comparative and focus on many geographies
19 recently completed 62 ongoing 38 proposed = 122 projects
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• What will the development of biofuels look like? • When does hydrogen become viable, and what will a
hydrogen transition look like? • How will electric vehicles rollout to consumers? • What is the role of natural gas in transportation? • What is the role and impact of carbon capture and
sequestration in transportation? • Which policy mechanisms are most effective?
Scenarios for low carbon, sustainable futures: • How do transitions vary by subsector? • What mix of fuels and technologies works for each region
of the U.S. and world?
NextSTEPS will answer key transition questions over next 2 years (2013-2014):
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NextSTEPS analysis draws on wide range of ITS & UC Davis research
NextSTEPS (pathway
comparisons, scenarios, transition
strategies)
China Center
(consumers, infrastructure)
PH&EV Center
(PEV modeling, consumer surveys)
ULTRANS (VMT, mobility)
Contracts (NETL, NREL, CEC, CARB,
Industry)
Energy Institute (biofuels)
Policy Institute
(energy, econ., env. policy analysis)
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23 NextSTEPS Consortium Sponsors
California Air Resources Board
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NextSTEPS Program Research Highlights
H2
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Plug-in Electric Vehicles
With thanks to Dr. Tom Turrentine and Dr. Mike Nicholas
University of California, Davis
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STATUS: PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES 2012 • OEMs: Wide range of PEV products rolling out 2010-2013. OEMs
specializing in drive trains and vehicle types (sports cars, sedan, crossovers, etc…)
• California: Major market launch of PEVs in 2011. PEV Collaborative formed in 2010. State plan developed in 2010. ZEV program expanding.
• US National policy: Significant incentives for PEVs, stimulus for US OEMs to make PEVs, Funds for manufacturing, infrastructure & rollout projects.
• World: Industrial policy, buyers incentives, rollouts, infrastructure development worldwide.
• Infrastructure providers: Emergence of many small and large firms into chargers and energy management systems.
• Grid: PEV charging, smart and renewable grid co-issues.
• Batteries: Lithium traction batteries entering mass production, prices still high, but appear to be dropping faster than many expected.
• Consumer: We will see. Concern on market after early buyers.
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RECENT UC DAVIS RESEARCH FINDINGS: CONSUMERS AND PEVs
Most US drivers will charge at home at night, requiring in-home chargers.
Up to 50% of US consumers may have access to plug in at home and even more if charging at work is an option.
Driving and charging behaviour influence the potential benefits of PEVs.
PEV drivers like feel of vehicle. PEVs “different,” in market, harder to evaluate, our research with consumers is encouraging. Early market not a big problem.
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We know that limited range of BEVs will reduce the potential market, but how much? • Studies => that annual market for EVs (with about 100-170
km of range) in California would be around 15-20% of sales. • Most of today’s MINI E drivers say 160 km works 90% of the
time.
The PHEV market is more uncertain.
Would seem larger than BEV markets, but less
studied.
0%10%20%30%40%50%
0 to 20 20 to 40 40 to 80 80 to 100Daily Miles Driven
On average, how many kilometers did you drive the MINI E each day?
(n = 102)
0 to 32 32 to 64 64 to 128 128 to 160 Daily kilometers driven
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How much does the lack of garage limit market? • Berlin 7%, San Francisco 20% have a garage
• In USA, California about 50% of new car buyers have a place ~8 meters from electricity each night
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%
Home Work Other
15 m 7.6 m 4.6 m 3 m
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Workplace charging and Public charging could enable fuller use of PEVs
• Work charging +6%
• Public “Level 2” Charging +4%
• Fast Charging +6 to 18%
4.8%1.5%0.7%
4.2%
5.9%
5.7%
3.7%
2.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
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35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
Unserved
3 or More Fast Charge Events2 Fast Charge Events
1 Fast Charge Event
Public 6.6kW (L2)
Work 6.6kW (L2)
Work 3.3kW (L2)
Work 1.2kW (L1)
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Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Vehicles
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Automakers see H2 FCVs + Battery EVs
Source: Britta Gross, GM, http://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/htac_nov2011_general_motors.pdf
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What is a Fuel Cell? • A fuel cell is an electrochemical energy conversion device
that combines hydrogen and oxygen in the presence of an electrolyte to produce electricity, heat and water
Fuel Cell Oxygen
Hydrogen
Heat
Electricity
Motor
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How a H2 Fuel Cell Works
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Challenges on the H2 FCV Pathway • Technology. (PEM) fuel cells, H2 storage on vehicles, and
technologies for zero-carbon hydrogen production.
• Logistical. Adoption of hydrogen will require a widespread hydrogen infrastructure to fuel vehicles.
• Transition issues / coordination of stakeholders. H2 transition => multiple changes: new types of vehicles, new fuel infrastructure, new low-carbon primary energy resources. Compatibility w/existing fuel infrastructure more problematic for H2 than for elec. or liquid synthetic fuels. Geographic focussed rollout of early vehicles/infrastructure.
• Resource/Sustainability Issues. Many potential low-C resources for making H2. For full GHG benefits, need low-C H2 production.
• Policy challenges. . It is almost certain that technology-specific policies will be needed to support a hydrogen transition. H2 should be seen as part of a broad portfolio of approaches to GHG emissions reduction, energy security.
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47
H2 station
Existing energy infrastructure
On-site H2 production
On-site H2 production
H2 station
Local distribution network
Plant to city-gate transmission
Central H2 Plant
Central H2 production
CO2 capture & storage
Challenges: Building H2 Infrastructure What Will a H2 Infrastructure Look Like?
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Challenges: Building H2 Infrastructure Improved strategies for early H2 networks
Vehicles placed by population
17
40
100
125150 175 200
20
30
40
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0 50 100 150 200 250
Ave
rage
Tim
e to
the
Nea
rest
Sta
tion
in F
reef
low
Tra
ffic
(min
)
Number of Hydrogen Stations
Deployment Scenario
CNG Stations Included
Gasoline Stations Included
Planned and Existing Stations
Selecting from Gasoline Locations
H2 Pathways CA H2 Highway Network Study 2005:
Ave. travel time to 17 optimally placed stations in LA Basin
= 16 minutes
UCD H2 Rollout Study 2010: Ave. travel time to 16 optimally
placed stations in LA Basin = 4 minutes
Cluster strategy: Co-locate early FCVs and H2
stations in a few cities in region
Nicholas, Michael A. and Joan M. Ogden (2010) An Analysis of Near-Term Hydrogen Vehicle Rollout Scenarios for Southern California. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Research Report UCD-ITS-RR-10-03.
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Home and Neighborhood Refueling: Tri-Generation System for Residential Heat, Power, and H2
Source: Xuping Li and Joan Ogden, Understanding the Design and Economics of Distributed Tri-generation Systems for Home and Neighborhood Refueling, Part I: Single Family Residence Case Studies, submitted to Journal of Power Sources, 196 (2011) 2098–2108.
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Biofuels
With thanks to Dr. Nathan Parker University of California, Davis
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Challenges on the Biofuel Pathway
• Sustainability challenges. Biofuels at large scale would place large demands on scarce land and water resources.
• Technical challenges. Time is needed to develop and demonstrate cellulosic biofuel technologies at commercial scale.
• Logistical challenges. Alcohol fuels face limited market without large scale deployment and consumer acceptance of E85 in flexible-fuel vehicles.
• Policy challenges. Policies need to be crafted that encourage investment in cellulosic biofuels that are sensitive to the sustainability challenges.
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UC Davis research on future biofuel supply
• Spatial supply chain optimization model to project future biofuel supplies
• A wide range of feedstock scenarios and technology scenarios have been considered for the 2018 to 2022 timeframe.
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Feedstocks Agricultural Residues Energy Crops
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Forest Residues
Pulpwood
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Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)
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Biofuels could supply 6.5% to 22% of total US Light Duty Vehicle fuel demand in 2018
• Estimates for total sustainably available biofuels vary widely.
• At $3/gge-$4/gge 2-10% from wastes
and residues
0-7% from energy crops and pulpwood
1-5.5% from corn and soy
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A simulated industry to meet the US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)
• To achieve federal mandated volumes: • 200 to 250
commercial scale cellulosic biorefineries needed, costing $100-360 Billion.
• Corn ethanol and cellulosic biofuels from MSW and forest residues are the low cost pathways
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Resource Consumption by Biorefineries
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STEPS Book
•Print version Available on Amazon (or order from your local bookstore) •Free pdf Download at
http://www.its.ucdavis.edu/research/profile/stepsbook.php