EV-STEP – 06FEBRUARY 2014

Edi Assoumou, ARMINES – CMA, FR

Markus Blesl, IER –Stuttgart, DE

Poul Erik Grohnheit, RISOE-DTU, DK

Frédéric Ghersi, SMASH, FR

Sustainable Technology and EconomicPathways for

Electrified mobility systems in EU-27by 2030:

mid-term status

Outline

• Mid-term status and overview of R&D activities

• Pan European TIMES model

• IMACLIM-P model

• Complementary analyses

2

MID-TER

MSTA

TUS:

CO

NSO

RTIU

MA

ND

R&

DA

CTIV

ITIESMid-term status: consortium life

o EV-STEP’s aim(KD1): long-term socio-economic analysis ofelectric mobility in Europe by 2030 and 2050.

o With some challenges other the past period

Organizational challenges Effective start

Managing key persons’ departure and replacement

Scientific challenges Models updates to EU-28

Evolution of the state of the art related to electromobility

o An enriching collaborative experience

3

MID-TER

MSTA

TUS:

CO

NSO

RTIU

MA

ND

R&

DA

CTIV

ITIESMid-term status: R&D activities in KD1

o EV-STEP’s core focus:

o Technical assessment TIMES pan EU 28

Updated transport and mobility description

Preliminary scenarios runs

o Economic impact IMACLIM-P EU 28

Linkage specification

o Complementary analyses Local scale differences in mobility patterns

Negative electricity prices 4

Outline

• Mid-term status and overview of R&D activities

• Pan European TIMES model

• IMACLIM-P model

• Complementary analyses

5

PA

NEU

MO

DEL

The Pan-European TIMES model

o A technology oriented bottom-up model with:

31 regions (EU 28 + NO, CH, IS)

Time horizon: 2000-2050

12 time slices (4 seasonal, 3 day levels)

GHG: CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6

Others pollutants: SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, PM2.5, PM10

o Providing a partial equilibrium of the energy systems and

based on a cost minimization approach

6

PA

NEU

MO

DELImproved transport concepts in PEM

Technology FuelEnergy

storageEngine Characteristic

Batteryelectric

vehicle (BEV)

Electricity Battery Electric engine Vehicle movement withelectric engine andelectricity as fuel

Fuel cellvehicle(FCEV)

Hydrogen Hydrogenstorage

(gaseous at 700bar or liquid at

-253°C)

Electric engine Electricity for vehiclemovement produced byfuel cell from hydrogen

Fuel cellhybrid electric

vehicle(FCHEV)

Hydrogen Hydrogenstorage

(gaseous at 700bar or liquid at

-253°C), Battery

Electric engine Same as FCEV, inaddition a bigger batteryfor temporary storage of

power, to balance thedynamic Inertia of the fuel

cellHybrid electricvehicle (HEV)

Petrol/Gasoline (Diesel)

Fuel tank,battery

Combustion engine,electric engine

Depending on the varietypossibility to boost,

recuperation of brakeenergy, purely electric

drivePlug-in-Hybrid

(PHEV)Petrol/Gaso

line(Diesel),

Electricity

Fuel tank,battery

Combustion engine,electric engine

Possibility of batterycharging via electricity grid,combustion engine as an

range-extender

7

PA

NEU

MO

DELImproved transport concepts in PEM

Passenger car 2010 2030 2050

Fuel

Propulsion technologie/

Drive technologie

Consumption

[GJ/100km]* 0.0 0.0 0.0

Urban/ in town 0.192 0.159 0.135

Extra urban/ out of

town 0.176 0.140 0.119

Combined 0.181 0.146 0.125

Lifetime/ Durability [a] 12 12 12

Investment costs [€/veh] 22.321 21.433 21.313

Fixed costs

[€/(veh*a)] 446 429 426

CO2-emissions

[g/km] 131 105 90

CH4-emissions

[g/km] 0.008 0.008 0.006

CO emissions

[g/km] 0.833 0.763 0.625

NOx-emissions

[g/km] 0.067 0.052 0.042

NMVOC emissions

[g/km] 0.075 0.046 0.037

Particle emissions

[g/km] 0.000 0.000 0.000

Technical data

Combustion engine, electric engine

Enviromental data

Economical data

Gasoline

Passenger car 2010 2030 2050

Fuel

Propulsion technologie/

Drive technologie

Consumption

[GJ/100km]* 0.0 0.0 0.0

Urban/ in town 0.055 0.049 0.044

Extra urban/ out of

town 0.083 0.075 0.066

Combined 0.073 0.066 0.059

Lifetime/ Durability [a] 12 12 12

Investment costs [€/veh] 37.663 27.456 24.453

Fixed costs

[€/(veh*a)] 753 549 489

CO2-emissions

[g/km] – – –

CH4-emissions

[g/km] – – –

CO emissions

[g/km] – – –

NOx-emissions

[g/km] – – –

NMVOC emissions

[g/km] – – –

Particle emissions

[g/km] – – –

Technical data

Electricity

Electric engine

Economical data

Enviromental data

8

PA

NEU

MO

DEL

Ev-step’s assumptions and scenarios map

o Underlying social economical assumptions

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050Population m 497 499 500 500 499 491 476

0,1% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% -0,2% -0,3%GDP €12

2007 12,0 13,5 15,1 16,5 17,9 20,9 24,52,4% 2,1% 1,8% 1,7% 1,6% 1,6%

o 5 scenarios “to be fine-tuned”

REF: a reference scenario with only ETS as instrument

REF+: REF scenario with a renewable target for electricity

EV_current: REF+ with national EV targets.

EV_ambitious: REF+ with EVI sales shares for 2050

Em_Obj: A scenario with only 2050 CO2 target

9

PA

NEU

MO

DEL

Preliminary results: Ev_current CO2 EU-28

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Em

iss

ion

so

fC

O2

[Mio

t]

International Aviation

Transport (without int. Aviation)

Agriculture

Commercial

Residential

Industry

Conversion, production

10

PA

NEU

MO

DEL

Preliminary results: Ev_current FEC transport

0.0

2000.0

4000.0

6000.0

8000.0

10000.0

12000.0

14000.0

16000.0

18000.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Navigation

Aviation

Train freight

Train passenger

Motorcycle

Truck

Bus

Car

11

PA

NEU

MO

DEL

Preliminary results: Ev_current FEC transport

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

FEC of Car in PJElectricity

Natural Gas

Biogas

Hydrogen compressed

Hydrogen liquified

Methanol fossil

Methanol bio

Dimethyleter fossil

Dimethyleter bio

FT-Fuel fossil

FT-Fuel bio

Ethanol

Biodiesel

LPG

Gasoline

Diesel

12

PA

NEU

MO

DEL

Preliminary results: Ev_current Elec supply EU28

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Net

ele

ctr

icit

y[T

Wh

]

Electricity storage (excl.pump storage)

Net Imports

Others / Waste non-ren. /Ind.Waste Heat

Other Renewables

Biomass / Waste ren.

Solar

Wind offshore

Wind onshore

Hydro (incl. pump storage)

Nuclear

Gas CCS

Gas w/o CCS

Oil

Lignite CCS

Lignite w/o CCS

Coal CCS

Coal w/o CCS

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Outline

• Mid-term status and overview of R&D activities

• Pan European TIMES model

• IMACLIM-P model

• Complementary analyses

14

IMA

CLIM

-PM

OD

ELThe IMACLIM-P model

o A recursive, computable general equilibrium model:

Exogenous growth through labour productivity improvements with

constant savings rate

Endogenously split between domestic and imported goods

EU28 as a whole, horizon and time steps consistent with PEM

Balanced economic flows of 11 goods, labour and capital

Exogenous firms’ input and households’ consumption trade-offs

15

IMA

CLIM

-PM

OD

ELData requirements

Building ‘hybrid’ input-output tables that reconcile nationalaccounting and energy balance data

o 2008 national accounting data: main source EUROSTAT

EU27 tables only at basic prices. Need to build tables at purchaser’sprices from 27 MS tables (! Quite unexpected workload)

Croatia imported from GTAP database, year 2004, scaled up accordingto GDP (EUROSTAT)

o 2008 energy data: main source IEA

Detailed EU28 energy balances

Energy price data from ENERDATA and EUROSTAT

16

IMA

CLIM

-PM

OD

ELThe IMACLIM-P model: work progress

o Modelling

“KLEM” structure of the model operational

o Data collection and formatting

EU28 energy balance treated

Data of automobile production and imports collected

IO tables constructed for all MSs

o Linkage with PEM:

Specification of goods and inheritance of trade-offs

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Outline

• Mid-term status and overview of R&D activities

• Pan European TIMES model

• IMACLIM-P model

• Complementary analyses

18

CO

MP

LEMEN

TAR

YA

NA

LYSESLocal differences in mobility patterns

o Challenge1: mobility patterns & load curve Illustration of a potential 10% Ev case impact on hourly load curve

More crucial at local level

Source: JRC 2013, Pasaoglu et al, Projections for Electric Vehicle Load Profilesin Europe Based on Travel Survey Data

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CO

MP

LEMEN

TAR

YA

NA

LYSESGeographic variabilities in mobility

patternso Ev-step’s response: the RECAM platform

Test case for Paris IDF region

20

CO

MP

LEMEN

TAR

YA

NA

LYSESNegative electricity prices

o Ev-step’s response: a dedicated test case for Germany with a

8760 time slices TIMES model

o Challenge2: Electric vehicle and renewable Country scale illustration with negative prices in Germany

Source: Johannes Mayer 2014, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar EnergySystems; Data: EEX

Source: Quarterly Report on European Electricity MarketsDG Energy 2013

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