SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH A RESILIENCE...
Transcript of SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH A RESILIENCE...
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTTHROUGH A RESILIENCE APPROACH
TO MANAGEMENT AND GOVERNANCE
Brian WalkerCSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems
The Resilience Alliance (www.resalliance.org)
Why is it, that with the best intentions ……
Mulga rangelands in Australia
Alternate states in lakes
Western Australian wheatbelt
Caribbean coral reefs
These are all social-ecological systems– interlinked systems of humans and nature
Unwelcome surprises in such systems are aresult of loss of resilience
Loss of resilience occurs through changes inslow variables leading to changed feedbacks
( )Supply of ecosystem services as a function of ecosystem state
‘B’ - lake services (fish, recreation) as a function of phosphate in mud‘A’ - rangeland services (wool production from grazing) as a function of shrubsVc - critical, threshold levels
www.resalliance.org - thresholds database
Development paradigms, such as seekingmaximum sustainable yield (MSY), originallyworked well, but are now running into problems
They create feedbacks that eventually causedifficulty
• focus on average conditions (rather than extremeevents)
Flawed assumptions underlying maximumsustainable yield
• belief that problems from different sectors don’tinteract (they do, very much)• expectation that change will be incremental andlinear (smooth) (it is mostly lurching and non-linear)• keeping the system in some optimal state willdeliver MSY indefinitely.
There is no sustainable “optimal” state of an ecosystem,a social system, or the world. It is an unattainable goal
Assumptions underlying Resilience Managementand Governance of social-ecological systems
1. They have non-linear dynamics withthresholds, and show self-organisingemergent behaviour
No-one is in charge !Top-down, command-and-control management
doesn’t work for very long
2. They exist as linked adaptive cycles atmultiple scales
Adaptive cycles
ecosystems, societies and social-ecologicalsystems cycle through 4 characteristic phases
aa __
rrKK
r: growthresources readily available
K: conservationResources slowly‘locked up’, complexityincreases
W: rapid release‘locked up’ resources suddenlyreleased; chaotic dynamics
a: re-organization andrenewala time for innovation
aa __
rrKK
Sustainable development (staying ondesirable trajectories) requires systems
that are
resilient, adaptable & transformable
ResilienceFormal definition:
The capacity of a system to absorbdisturbance and re-organise whileundergoing change so as to still retainessentially the same function, structure,identity and feedbacks
L
RPr
R1
R2
R3
R4
Focal scale
Finer scale
Coarser scale
R4
Panarchy (Pa) - influence of the states of the system (including wherethey are in their adaptive cycles) at scales above and below the focal scale,by impacting the system directly (from the finer scale) or by changing thestability landscape (from the coarser scale).
Latitude (L): the maximum amount a system can bechanged before losing its ability to recover (beforecrossing a threshold which, if breached, makesrecovery difficult or impossible)
Resistance (R): ease or difficulty of changing the system
Precariousness (Pr): current trajectory - how close thesystem is to a ‘threshold’
Panarchy (Pa): influence on the focal scale from scalesabove and below
(external politics, invasions, market shifts, climatechange can trigger local surprises and flips)
Four key aspects of resilience
AdaptabilityThe capacity of the system (people in it) tomanage resilience :
(i) move thresholds, or make it easier/harderto change the system (change the basin)
(ii) control the trajectory of the system (avoidcrossing a threshold, or engineer such a crossing)
!
resilience per se is not necessarilydesirable
the Hindu caste system ?
desertified and impoverished parts of the Sahel
transformability - the only way out
TransformabilityThe capacity to become (or create) afundamentally different system when ecological,social and/or economic conditions make theexisting system untenable
What determines resilience?
-Diversity (eggs-in-baskets)*-Modularity (connectedness)-Tight feedbacks-
*(e.g., having more perennial grasses in arangeland increases resilience of production todrought and grazing)
What determines Adaptability?
– social capitalleadershiptrust
- overlapping institutions
- human capital (skills, education, health)- financial resources- natural capital
- ongoing learning
What determines Transformability?
(we don’t know, but…)- cross-scale awareness (knowing when to jump)- propensity for experimentation (rewarded, notpenalised)- external support that provides options forchange vs incentives not to change- ?
Resilience, adaptability and transformability indesertification (Fernandez et al 2003)
declining grass basal cover
Vc1
Vc2
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debt
: inc
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ratio
A C
B D
A C
B D
1/grass basal cover
Resilience governance and managementconsists of:
1. Maintaining or increasing the resilience ofdesirable states (or, conversely, decreasingit for undesirable states)
2. Keeping the system on desirabletrajectories - within a desirable state(or trying to get the system from anundesirable onto a desirable trajectory
A resilience approach identifies possibleintervention points in:
- management- governance (laws, regulations, rights)- investment
In developing intervention strategies:
• Thresholds and slow variables are the key
• The effectiveness of an intervention dependson where a system is in the adaptive cycle
• Beware of: - pursuing some perceived “optimal” state
- increasing “efficiency” that removes“apparent” redundancy
¸¸¸¸NatureConservn.
¸¸¸¸¸¸¸¸¸¸Dryland Crops
¸¸¸¸¸¸¸¸¸¸¸Dairy
businessmgmt.utilityirrigationt’sportarea &condn.
aciditywaterquality
diseasewaterstorage
soil,watertable &salinity
SkillsLabourInfrastructureEquimentMachinery
NativeVegn.
SoilWaterLivestock(cows &sheep)
Fodder
Human CapitalManufactured CapitalNatural Capital
Possible thresholds (¸) along “slow” variables (capital stocks) inthree production systems in the Goulburn-Broken Catchment)
Capital stocks
Prod
uction
sys
tems
Adaptive cycles are everywhere
- Ecosystems- Farming regions- Corporations- Societies and civilizations (rise and fall ofempires, Russian communism, the AnasaziIndians, Easter Island, …)
THE BIGGER PICTURE
rr
KK
__
aa
adaptive cycles are linked across scales
Which parts of Australia show critical loss ofresilience?
Are there regions in Australia teetering around abackloop?
Given its unprecedented connectivity, is a globalizingworld itself approaching a big backloop?If a big backloop looms, can a resilience approach helpavoid it, or prepare a graceful passage through it?
Examples of questions flowing from a resilienceapproach
Sacred forest (150ha) surrounded byagricultural land (beans and maize)
Southern Madagascar dry thorn forests
?
Sacred Forests - alafaly
What would a sustainably developing SES look like?
It would:- promote and sustain diversity - biological, landscape, economic (multiple useof resources), social- restrict human control of ecological variability- be modular (connected systems susceptible to shocks)- emphasize learning, social networks, and locally developed rules
And have:- tight feedbacks- a policy focus on “slow” variables associated with thresholds- a mix of common and private property, overlapping access rights- strong penalties (‘public shaming’) for cheaters- overlapping institutions (hierarchically)- unpriced ecosystem services included in development proposals- low resistance to change; innovation and experiments encouraged- strong awareness and response to cross-scale influences
The MarketClimate
Lightly Grazed Site (site 5)
photo by Jill Landsberg
abundance of grass species in an ungrazedrangeland in Australia
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Plant attributes determining ecosystem production(available data)
• height
• mature plant biomass
• specific leaf area
• longevity
• leaf litter quality
• height
• mature plant biomass
• specific leaf area
• longevity
• leaf litter quality
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Functional similarities between dominant and minorspecies
Heavily Grazed Site
photo by Jill Landsberg
- Ecosystem performance is promoted byhigh functional diversity (complementarity)
- Resilience is promoted by high responsediversity (in rainforests, coral reefs, lakes,rangelands)
( cf Elmqvist etal; Response diversity, ecosystem changeand resilience. Frontiers in Ecology and Environment)