Sustainable Development Prospects for North

Africa:

Ad Hoc Experts MeetingSustainable Development in North Africa: Experiences and Lessons

Tunisia, 18-21 November 2007

Lessons of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

Professor Anthony Nyong

Outline of Presentation

• Summary of IPCC Report on Impacts and Vulnerability for Africa

• Implications for Sustainable Development in North Africa

Summary of Climate Change Vulnerability

and Impacts

Africa’s Vulnerability• AFRICA, most vulnerable continent

– Current and projected climate– Current and projected multiple stresses

Current and Projected Climate

• High annual and inter-annual variability

• Mean increase of 3 – 4 degrees C between 2080 and 2099

• Significant decline in precipitation along Mediterranean coast, northern Sahara and Western Sahel

• Increase in drought and flood frequencies and intensities.

• Significant increase in semi arid/arid lands.

• More hot days and heat waves

Current Multiple Stresses

• Low income and GDP

• Desertification

• Soil Erosion

• High population growth rate

• High urbanization rates

• Declining per capita agricultural production

• Extensive deforestation

Projected Impacts• Water Resources

– Substantial decline in run-off– Increased water stress– Increased evapotranspiration and water salinity– Reduced water table– Increased potential for ‘water wars’

Freshwater Stress & Scarcity - 2025Projected run-off by 2050

• Sea Level Rise– Coastal erosion– Intrusion of sea water into land– Economic loss from destruction of

infrastructure and other resources– Loss of livelihoods

• Agriculture– Reduced crop growth period and growing

areas– Declining yields with food insecurity– More expenditure on food imports– Livestock production declines with

reduced quality of rangelands + heat stress

Temp and Precipitation Variables Predicted yields (kg/ha)

Impacts (%)

Current Temp and precipitation 747.30 0

Current temp + 1.50C + -10% precipitation 499.81 -33.11

Current temp + 1.50C + -20% precipitation 371.46 -50.29

Current temp + 3.60C + -10% precipitation 333.01 -55.44

Current temp + 3.60C + -20% precipitation 204.66 -72.61

• Energy– Reduced energy production from

reduced runoff– Increased energy demand

• Tourism– Increased heat index– Degraded beaches– Reduced tourism inflows

• Desertification– Increase in extent and severity of

desertification– Enormous cost implications

• Public health– Malnutrition – Respiratory illness from heat and

pollution– Cholera from polluted water– Risk of other vector-borne diseases– Increased mortality from climate

disasters

WHO Estimates of Extra Deaths (per million People) from Climate Change in 2000

• Biodiversity– In Tunisia, rising temperatures could

contribute to significant loss in food plants and breeding waterfowl

– Possible disappearance of nationally important fisheries.

– Up to 50% loss in plant species– Increase in forest fires– Forest fires could introduce invasive

species that lead to more forest fires.

Implications for Sustainable Development

• Pillars of Sustainable Development– Environmental– Economic– Social

• All Captured in the MDGs

• Climate change threat to achieving the MDGs and other developmental goals

• Falling agricultural output and deteriorating conditions in rural areas caused by climate change will directly increase poverty of households in many countries.

• Climate change and variability cuts the revenues and increases the spending of nations, worsening their budget situation.

• Strategies to manage the risks and impacts of an adverse climate can lock people into long-term poverty traps.

• Extreme weather events can – and do – affect growth rates in developing countries. Climate change presents a greater threat still.

• Slower growth could cause an increase in poverty and child mortality relative to a world without climate change.

– Under a high-climate-change scenario, the mean cost of climate change is predicted to be 2.7% of GDP in Africa by 2100.

• Climate-driven reduction in GDP would

increase no of people below the $2 a day poverty line by 2100 (100 million in Africa), and raise the child mortality rate.

• Greater resource scarcity, desertification, risks of droughts and floods, and rising sea levels could drive many millions of people to migrate – a last-resort adaptation for individuals, but one that could be very costly to them and the world.

• Drought and other climate-related shocks may spark conflict and violence, as they have done already in many parts of Africa.

What Way Forward?• Adaptation is going on but

insufficient• Enhance resilience of rural

communities• Improved integrated management

of climate-related impacts• Synchronization of many related

conventions• Mainstream climate into

development, in PRACTICE