Sustainable Development Policies and Measures: Putting development first in a carbon-constrained...

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Sustainable Sustainable Development Development Policies and Policies and Measures: Measures: Putting development first in Putting development first in a carbon-constrained a carbon-constrained world. world. BASIC MEETING Jonathan Pershing Climate, Energy and Pollution Program World Resources Institute B A S I C

Transcript of Sustainable Development Policies and Measures: Putting development first in a carbon-constrained...

Page 1: Sustainable Development Policies and Measures: Putting development first in a carbon-constrained world. BASIC MEETING February, 2005 Jonathan Pershing.

Sustainable Development Sustainable Development Policies and Measures: Policies and Measures: Putting development first in a Putting development first in a

carbon-constrained world.carbon-constrained world.

BASIC MEETING

February, 2005

Jonathan PershingClimate, Energy and Pollution ProgramWorld Resources Institute

B A S I C

Page 2: Sustainable Development Policies and Measures: Putting development first in a carbon-constrained world. BASIC MEETING February, 2005 Jonathan Pershing.

450 high

550 high

Higher Emissions = Higher Risks

Source: IPCC TAR, 2001

450 low550 low

Page 3: Sustainable Development Policies and Measures: Putting development first in a carbon-constrained world. BASIC MEETING February, 2005 Jonathan Pershing.

0

1,500

3,000

4,500

6,000

7,500

9,000

10,500

12,000

13,500

15,000

World Developed Developing

57%

35%84%

Mil

lion

s of

Ton

s of

Carb

on

Eq

uiv

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0

300

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1,200

1,500

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2,100

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3,000

U.S . China E.U. FSU India Africa Brazil Japan Mexico

Projected emissions, 2025

2000 Emissions

39%

118%

19%42%

70%80% 68%

26%124%

But GHG emissions are projected to continue to increase…

Source: WRI CAIT

Page 4: Sustainable Development Policies and Measures: Putting development first in a carbon-constrained world. BASIC MEETING February, 2005 Jonathan Pershing.

The development challenge

Population without access to electricity, selected countries

Source: Bradley and Baumert, “Growing in the Greenhouse”

Page 5: Sustainable Development Policies and Measures: Putting development first in a carbon-constrained world. BASIC MEETING February, 2005 Jonathan Pershing.

The development challenge

Motor vehicles per 1000 people, selected countries

Source: Bradley and Baumert, “Growing in the Greenhouse”

Page 6: Sustainable Development Policies and Measures: Putting development first in a carbon-constrained world. BASIC MEETING February, 2005 Jonathan Pershing.

GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS FOR IPCC/SRES SCENARIO GROUPS

Page 7: Sustainable Development Policies and Measures: Putting development first in a carbon-constrained world. BASIC MEETING February, 2005 Jonathan Pershing.

A commitment to implement a policy or measure – not based on GHG emissions, but where the development path results in lowered emissions.•Driven by host country development needs.•Large-scale policies and measures, not projects.•Development path chosen results in significantly lower emissions.•Declared and registered under the international climate framework.

What is an SD-PAM?

Page 8: Sustainable Development Policies and Measures: Putting development first in a carbon-constrained world. BASIC MEETING February, 2005 Jonathan Pershing.

Looking at real-world examples

BrazilBiofuels for transportReducing the economic impact of oil imports and supporting the rural economy

ChinaInnovative transport approachesPromoting mobility while avoiding urban infrastructure and oil supply constraints

South AfricaCarbon capture and storageFinding ways to reduce the impact of coal in developing countries

IndiaRenewable energy in rural electrificationProviding electricity faster and safer to 500 million people

Page 9: Sustainable Development Policies and Measures: Putting development first in a carbon-constrained world. BASIC MEETING February, 2005 Jonathan Pershing.

India’s rural electrification: 500-600 million people without electricity.Three supply scenarios:

–Grid First–Diesel First–Renewables First

Three levels of rural electricity demand.

India – options for rural electrification

Source: Dubash and Bradley

Page 10: Sustainable Development Policies and Measures: Putting development first in a carbon-constrained world. BASIC MEETING February, 2005 Jonathan Pershing.

Approaches are evaluated by India’s national criteria.Grid First offers little hope of meeting electrification goals.Diesel First raises significant oil import concerns.Renewables First brings benefits but at significant capital cost – can international policy help?

India – a wider potential role for renewable energy

Qualitative assessment of the scenarios

CO2 emissions under the scenarios

Source: Dubash and Bradley

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Motor Vehicle Shares of Criteria Pollutants in Chinese Cities

Source: Schipper and Ng, 2005

 City

CO (%) HC (%) NOx (%)

Beijing (2000)

77 78 40

Shanghai (1996)

86 96 56

Guangzhou (2000)

84 50 45

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Oil Production, Consumption and Imports for China

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Figure 2. Oil Production, Consumption, and Exports in China

Source & Notes: IEA, 2004b, with estimates for 2003 and 2004 based on BP, 2004 and 2005. Negative values indicate imports.

Source: Schipper and Ng, 2005

Page 13: Sustainable Development Policies and Measures: Putting development first in a carbon-constrained world. BASIC MEETING February, 2005 Jonathan Pershing.

0.0

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: Roa

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Three scenarios for China: Energy and Carbon from Motor Vehicles

Source: Schipper and Ng, 2005

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Electricity, as Primary Energy

CNG

Oil in Hybrids

Oil in Conventional GasolineCars

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• Fitting SD-PAMs into future climate agreements

– Consistent with UNFCCC & KP (including evolving CDM)

– Could be implemented through new arrangements

• Financing SD-PAMs– Allows funding from both climate resources (including GEF,

CDM etc) and non-climate resources (FDI, World Bank, etc.)– Still inadequate to development (and climate) needs

• Limitations of SD-PAMs– Does not substitute for mitigation by developed countries – Not appropriate for every technology or policy. – Implementation, on the scale needed, may not attract sufficient

funding.

Implementing SD PAMS