Sussex Energy Group SPRU - Science and Technology Policy Research Reorienting climate change...

Sussex Energy GroupSPRU - Science and Technology Policy Research

Reorienting climate change communication for effective

mitigation:The public, politics and forcing

people to be greenDr David Ockwell

February [email protected]


Overview

1. The problem: Climate change – what are we trying to achieve?

2. The public: Public behaviour change

3. Forcing people to be green: Regulation and behaviour change

4. The politics: Why aren’t politicians regulating behaviour?

5. Implications: A new role for public communicationReorienting the research agenda


The problem


Climate change

•EU 2oC target to avoid dangerous climate change

•Stern Review

Stabilisation at 500–550ppm CO2e

•UK Climate Change Bill 60% reduction by 2050 - based

on RCEP (2000) 550ppm CO2 target

cited Met Office data suggesting 550ppm CO2 = 2.3oC

by 2100

• IPCC 2007?


Global mean surface temperature increase above pre-industrial levels IPCC WG1 (2007) p 66.

Equilibrium

CO2e (ppm)

Global Mean Surface Temperature Increase

(°C)

Best Estimate >90%

probability

above

>66%

probability in

the range

350 1.0 0.5 0.6-1.4

450 2.1 1.0 1.4-3.1

550 2.9 1.5 1.9-4.4

650 3.6 1.8 2.4-5.5

750 4.3 2.1 2.8-6.4

1000 5.5 2.8 3.7-8.3

1200 6.3 3.1 4.2-9.4


The public


2005 UK carbon emissions by end userDefra / AEA 2006

Industry27%

Domestic27%

Transport28%

Other18%


2005 UK carbon emissions by end userBased on Defra / AEA 2006

Industry28%

Domestic27%

Transport - private vehicles

9%

Transport - air5%

Other18%

Transport - industry

13%


Agency vs. structure

•Infrastructure

e.g. existing housing stock, planning

•Elasticity of demand and availability of substitutes

e.g. public transport

•Institutions

e.g. quarterly electricity bills, social norms (cars as status symbols)

•Socio-technical lock-in


Emissions savings from behaviour change

•Walking, cycling, using public transport, car sharing

•Turning off the lights

•Energy saving light bulbs

•Not leaving things on standby

•Turning the heating down and wearing a jumper

•Recycling / composting

•Flying less


Encouraging behaviour change

•‘Are you doing your bit?’ campaign

•Defra, Carbon Trust, BERR, DfT, Energy Savings Trust,

Environment Agency, UK Climate Impacts Programme:

UK Climate Change Communications Working Group

Developing “a communication strategy to change

attitudes towards climate change in the UK”


Problems with achieving behaviour change

•‘Attitude-behaviour’ gap

•Collective action problem / prisoner’s dilemma / free-

rider effect

•Intractable opinions

e.g. Michael Thompson's Cultural Theory - individualists,

egalitarians, fatalists and hierarchists


Forcing people to be green


Forced behaviour change

•Overcomes attitude-behaviour gap

•Overcomes collective action problem

•Individualists and fatalists have to suck it up

•Responds to the urgency of the problem


Regulated behaviour and encouraging innovation

•Social innovation e.g. car clubs, walking buses,

community heat and power generation, social energy

cost reducing schemes, transition towns

•Technical innovation in low carbon direction is in

anticipation of future regulation of carbon emissions

e.g. hybrid vehicle technologies


Risks & Opportunities of Carbon ConstraintsSource: WRI 2001

Ad

dit

ion

al co

st p

er

veh

icle

DE

CR

EA

SIN

G R

ISK

FR

OM

CA

RB

ON

CO

NS

TR

AIN

TS


Regulated behaviour and encouraging innovation

•Regulations, or the anticipation thereof, encourage low

carbon innovation


The politics


The government gets the science

Peter Madden (Previously Head of Policy at the

Environment Agency; Ministerial Adviser at DETR and

DEFRA):

‘I don't think that Government inaction on climate change

has anything to do with the science’.

John Lawton (Chair, Royal Commission on Environmental

Pollution):

‘David Miliband has unquestionably grasped the

science….Miliband knows urgent action is needed’

‘It is not just the politicians, the senior [DEFRA] civil

servants get the science too’.


The environment as bad politics

•Electoral cycles vs. climate change



• Political capital – a precious resource

• Fuel protests 2000

‘… it put the fear of God into them and it is used rather too

frequently now as a justification for not doing much with

transport.’

Sara Eppel, Director of Policy, Sustainable Development Commission

• Road pricing petition – almost 2 million signatures

• Press coverage of Climate Change Bill

• VAT on domestic energy



•Mid-termism

•2005 election: environment = most important issue for

only 2% of voters (Whiteley et al 2005: 154)


Environmental Protection in Party Manifestos 1959-2005 Sources: Budge et al (2001) and Klingemann (2006)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

59 64 66 70 74 74 79 83 87 92 97 01 05 General Election

%

Con

Lab

LD


Implications


Reorienting climate change communication for effective mitigation

A new role for climate change communication:

Changing people’s perceptions of the need to accept

regulation


Learning from past precedents

•Smoking ban

•Banning plastic bags in Modbury, Devon

•Seat belts, drink driving

•London congestion charge

•1970s oil crisis (stickers in Austrian cars)

•Slavery


Forced behaviour change:Questions

•What can you force people to do?

Turn off the lights/fill the kettle less/turn heating down?

Domestic energy consumption largely infrastructural

issue (agency / structure)

Personal carbon trading, rubbish charging, plastic bag

tax, differentiated parking charges (Richmond), VED,

road pricing, speed cameras/limits – any others?


Reorienting the research agenda

•Universities most trusted sources of information

(Lorenzoni et al. 2007)

•Research already under way:

UEA, Surrey, Oxford, Sussex etc

• Not arguing that existing research effort on behaviour

change should be forgotten – high degree of synergy



• Recognition at a more strategic level

“Changing behaviours and lifestyles” = first of five key

themes identified by Research Councils’ Energy Programme

1. ‘map’ people’s current energy perceptions

2. develop and test innovative methods of public

engagement

3. understand role of media and mass communications in

forming lifestyle aspirations & influencing energy

consumption



1. Communicatively smart communication

2. Politically smart communication


Communicatively smart communication

•Insights from advertising e.g. diffuse issue, diverse

social groups – synergy with discrete areas where

regulation possible

•Make it local

•A role for the arts? e.g. Nicholson-Cole 2005

•Understanding framing effects e.g. Whitmarsh

(forthcoming)

•Engaging with children?


Politically smart communication

• Directed communications aimed at providing rapid feedback to politicians of a change in the public mood

• What informs politicians’ perceptions of public opinion?

Focus groups?

Target constituencies?

Direct action?

• When does something become an electoral issue?

• When does something become party political e.g. the Cameron effect

• Ethical issues – researcher vs. activist


Conclusion

• Regulating people’s behaviour is an important, effective

option in the context of the urgency of climate change

(remain aware of agency/structure issue)

• Reorient communication efforts towards influencing

perceptions of the need for regulation, rather than

influencing perceptions in an attempt to change behaviour

• Environment as good politics, not bad politics

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