Sushil finance commodity daily.pdf
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Transcript of Sushil finance commodity daily.pdf
Tuesday, December 30, 2014 For Private Circulation Only
MAJOR COMMODITIES
Commodity Expiry High Low Close Change
Commodity Expiry High Low Close ($) Change
Gold 5-Feb 27070 26725 26764 -309
Gold (Oz) Feb 1197.50 1178.60 1181.90 -13.40
Silver 5-Mar 37534 36431 36484 -831
Silver (Oz) Mar 16.26 15.72 15.78 -0.37
Crude Oil 18-Dec 3568 3396 3414 -133
Crude Oil Dec 55.74 52.90 53.61 -1.12
Natural Gas 26-Dec 204.80 195.40 203.80 11.90
Natural Gas Jan 3.21 3.02 3.19 0.18
Copper 27-Feb 403.95 399.35 401.15 0.70
Copper 3M 6316.00 6230.00 6255.00 -57.25
Nickel 31-Dec 980.00 955.10 956.30 -9.10
Nickel 3M 15468.00 15035.00 15054.00 -239.00
Aluminium 31-Dec 117.85 116.35 117.25 0.25
Aluminium 3M 1876.50 1849.00 1863.50 -3.25
Lead 31-Dec 118.10 115.25 115.40 -2.20
Lead 3M 1863.00 1816.25 1822.50 -35.00
Zinc 31-Dec 138.20 135.80 136.00 -1.15
Zinc 3M 2173.00 2137.00 2139.00 -20.75
News & Development
As expected, Greece failed to elect a new president, which put the country's bailout program at risk.
Growth in China's manufacturing sector likely slowed to a 18-month low in December, a Reuters poll showed, adding to signs of a
protracted slowdown in the world's second-largest economy that may prompt authorities to roll out more stimulus measures.
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will change rules governing how loan-to-deposit ratios are calculated at banks starting from next
year, according to a copy of a central bank document seen by Reuters, in a move that will boost liquidity conditions.
Growth in China's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to slow to 7 percent next year from a forecast 7.3 percent this year,
partly due to weakness in global economies, a top Chinese government think-tank said in a report published on Monday.
The number of rigs drilling for oil in the United States fell to near nine-month lows in the latest week, data from oil services firm
Baker Hughes Inc showed on Monday, as low crude prices continue to squeeze the industry.
(Source: Reuters)
Page 2
Commodity Daily
Gold
Gold fell on Monday, giving back most of the previous session's sharp short-covering gains, and silver fell also, as a strong U.S. dollar and bearish chart signals offset uncertainty over the prospect of fresh elections in Greece. Trading volumes were thin due to the Christmas and year-end holidays. Floor trading for CME Group's precious and base metals futures and options products will be closed on Jan. 1. European shares and periphery euro zone bonds earlier tumbled on news that the Greek parliament rejected the government's presidential candidate, setting the stage for an election that the anti bailout Syriza party could win. Demand for the metal was soft overnight in Asia, the primary market for physical gold dealing. However, China's gold imports from Hong Kong in November rose to their highest level since February, indicating strong demand in the world's top bullion consumer ahead of the Lunar New Year.
Outlook
We expect gold prices are likely to trade sideways on the back of US holiday season.
Technical Outlook
Gold Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2
Feb Sideways 26600 26700 26745 26900 27000
*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised
Silver Silver was down 1.7 percent at $15.74 an ounce, reversing earlier gains and extending losses after breaking through support at $16. Trading volumes were thin due to the Christmas and year-end holidays. Floor trading for CME Group's precious and base metals futures and options products will be closed on Jan. 1.
Outlook We expect Silver prices are likely to trade sideways on the back of US holiday season.
Technical Outlook
Silver Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2
Mar Sideways 36000 36400 36484 36800 37200
*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised
Page 3
Commodity Daily
Crude Oil Crude oil prices on tumbled on Monday, with global grades settling down more than $1 a barrel after an early rally fizzled and prices fell to their lowest levels since May 2009. News of further damage Libya's oil infrastructure prompted the early rally that was quickly erased as pervasive fears of global oversupply trumped concerns about output curtailment from the OPEC producer. OPEC has been reluctant to give up market share to boost tumbling oil prices, with Saudi Arabia stepping back from its historic role as a swing producer.
Outlook
We expect crude oil prices likely to trade on negative note on the back of increasing supply and decreasing demand is likely to keep crude oil prices under pressure.
Technical Outlook
Crude Oil Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2
Jan Sell @ R1 3350 3380 3414 3430 3460
*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised
Natural Gas U.S. natural gas futures jumped 6 percent on Monday, the biggest daily leap in more than a month, on forecasts for colder temperatures that could boost demand for heating. Gas futures had their biggest rally since a Nov. 17 rise of 8 percent. On Friday, gas hit a 27-month bottom on concerns over mild winter weather. Some analysts said thin holiday-season trading volumes may have exaggerated the move higher. The expiration of the January contract as the front-month also caused some position squaring that contributed to the price action, traders said. Weather models tracked by Thomson Reuters Analytics showed a potentially higher-than-usual requirement for heat in the lower 48 U.S. states in the next two weeks. According to the data, there could be 515 Heating Degree Days versus the 460 that are normal for this time of year.
Outlook We expect Natural gas prices to trade on negative note on the back of normal temperature over the next few days.
Technical Outlook
Nat Gas Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2
Dec Sell @ R1 196 200 203.8 207 210
*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised
\
Page 4
Commodity Daily
LME Inventories Copper Lead Zinc Aluminium Nickel
Current Stock 171850 222025 693400 4223225 410808
Change 0 1000 -600 -8050 -72
% Change 0.00% 0.45% -0.09% -0.19% -0.02%
Base Metals Copper fell on Monday, hitting its lowest level in four and a half years as investors booked profits ahead of the year-end amid persistent concerns about a strong dollar and a growth slowdown in top consumer China. Growth in China's manufacturing sector likely slowed to a 18-month low in December, a Reuters poll showed earlier, adding to signs of a protracted economic malaise that may prompt authorities to roll out more stimulus measures. In a bid to boost liquidity and reinvigorate productive business investment, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) will change rules governing how loan-to-deposit ratios are calculated at banks starting from next year. Still, a top Chinese government think tank said on Monday that the country's economy is expected to slow to 7 percent growth next year from a forecast 7.3 percent this year.
Outlook We expect base metal prices to trade mostly on the negative on the back of slowing industrial growth in China.
Technical Outlook
Dec/Feb Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2
Copper Sell @ R1 396 399 401.1 402 405
Nickel Sell @ R1 945 955 956.3 962 970
Alum Sell @ R1 115.5 116.5 117.2 117.5 118.5
Lead Sell @ R1 114 115 115.4 116.5 117.5
Zinc Sell @ R1 134.5 135.5 136.0 137 138
*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised
Page 5
Commodity Daily
For Further Assistance Contact: - 022-40934000
Ashish Shah Tejas Nikhar Mohit Agarwal AVP
[email protected] Sr. Research Analyst
[email protected] Research Analyst
[email protected] WE / OUR CLIENTS / OUR RELATIVES MAY HAVE PERSONAL TRADING / INVESTMENT INTEREST IN THE STOCKS MENTIONED HERE IN.
STATEMENT OF DISCLAIMER
This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its
accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report cannot be construed as a request to engage in any
transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts can be substantial, and therefore investors
should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and
for their results.
Additional information with respect to any commodities referred to herein will be available on request. Sushil Global Commodities Pvt. Ltd. and its
connected companies, and their respective Directors, Officers and employees, may, from time to time, have a long or short position in the commodities
mentioned and may sell or buy such commodities. Sushil Global may act upon or make use of information contained herein prior to the publication
thereof.
This data sheet is for private circulation only. While utmost care has been taken in preparing the above, we claim no responsibility for its accuracy. We
shall not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use thereof and the investors are requested to use the information contained herein
at their own risk.
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Road, Khar (W), Mumbai – 400 052.
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