Survey Results Analysis 021510

8/14/2019 Survey Results Analysis 021510

1/9

U.S. Senate: Ken Buck Still On Top, Norton and Tidwell GainingJane Norton Maintains Edge as Strongest Candidate

Excluding don't know/NA votes for accurate comparison, Buck has held leads over Norton of 46-25 and 49-27 in the past two surveys. This time the lead has trimmed to 44-29. Meanwhile,

Tidwell's support has grown from 4% to 11% to 20% over the same time. Wiens has droppedsteadily from 9% to 7% to 4%.

Both Norton and Buck are seen as about 5-point winners over either Democratic rival, down a tinynotch from January. Across the board, Michael Bennet is seen as slightly easier to beat thanAndrew Romanoff.

Survey of Colorado's Political Temperature Results: February 2010 Page 1

Answer Options

Tom Wiens 4.1% 18

Ken Buck 41.7% 181

Cleve Tidwell 18.7% 81

J ane Norton 27.4% 119

Other/None of the Above 2.3% 10

Don't Know/Not Applicable 5.8% 25

answered question 434

skipped question 5

If the GOP primary for US Senate were held today, ___ __ is the candidate Iwould vote for to best represent the Republican Party. (select one)

ResponsePercent

ResponseCount

Answer Options

Tom Wiens 3.0% 13

Ken Buck 35.3% 153

Cleve Tidwell 13.1% 57

J ane Norton 41.5% 180

Other/None of the Above 1.2% 5Don't Know/Not Applicable 6.0% 26


skipped question 5

Right now, I believe the strongest (most likely to win) GOP candidate for USSenate in the general election in November 2010 is _ _ ___ .

ResponsePercent

ResponseCount

Bennet vs. Buck

Bennet vs. Norton

Bennet vs. Wiens

Bennet vs. Tidwell

Romanoff vs. Buck

Romanoff vs. Norton

Romanoff vs. Wiens

Romanoff vs. Tidwell

4.20 4.40 4.60 4.80 5.00 5.20 5.40 5.60 5.80

US Sena


2/9

Governor: Dan Maes Widens Support Edge Over Scott McInnisWith Fewer Undecideds, McInnis Still Overwhelmingly Seen as Stronger Candidate

In the January survey, Dan Maes outperformed Scott McInnis 40-36 in a question answered by 250more participants, but only 140 more participants who expressed a preference for either

candidate.

Dan Maes narrowed his disadvantage slightly as strongest GOP candidate from 61-20 in theJanuary survey.

The Colorado governor's race has steadied as the field shook out during our January surveyfollowing Governor Bill Ritter's announcement he would not seek re-election. Virtually unchangedfrom January, the collective wisdom of survey-takers foresees about a 3-point McInnis victory overDenver mayor John Hickenlooper, with Maes beating Hickenlooper by about 2 points.


Hickenlooper vs. McInnis

Hickenlooper vs. Maes

4.20 4.30 4.40 4.50 4.60 4.70 4.80 4.90 5.00

matchup between the likely Democratic candidate John Hickenlooper and the likely Republican candidates Scott McInnis or Dan Maes? Please i

Answer Options

Scott McInnis 39.4% 171

Dan Maes 47.9% 208




skipped question 5

If the GOP primary for Governor were held today, _ _ _ _ _ is the candidatvote for to best represent the Republican Party. (select one)

ResponsePercent

ResponseCount

Answer Options

Scott McInnis 57.4% 249

Dan Maes 31.8% 138



answered question 434skipped question 5

Right now, I believe the strongest (most likely to win) GOP candidate for

Governor in the general election in November 2010 is _ _ _ __ .

Response

Percent

Response

Count


3/9

3rd Congressional: Scott Tipton Tops Bob McConnell TwiceState Rep Seen as Stronger than Local Tea Party Favorite in Less Familiar Race

New to the February 2010 survey, the 3rd Congressional race is the most unknown to surveyparticipants, with fewer than 200 registering an opinion. Still, state representative Scott Tiptoncurrently has a very similar advantage both in support and perceived strength.

The collective wisdom of survey-takers bears out the above results, though their cautionrecognizes the power of incumbency for Democrat John Salazar: a 2-point victory for Scott Tiptonand a razor-thin defeat for Bob McConnell.


Answer Options

Scott Tipton 30.4% 132

Bob McConnell 11.3% 49




skipped question 5

If the GOP primary for the 3rd Congressional District were held today, _ _ _the candidate I would vote for to best represent the Republican Party. (sone)

ResponsePercent

ResponseCount

Answer Options

Scott Tipton 30.4% 132

Bob McConnell 10.6% 46



answered question 434skipped question 5

Right now, I believe the strongest (most likely to win) GOP candidate for

Congressional District in the general election in November 2010 is _ _ _ _ _ .

Response

Percent

Response

Count


4/9

4th Congressional: Cory Gardner Still Stands Above the Field

Excluding the don't know votes for closest comparison, Cory Gardner's lead over Tom Luceroedged up a bit to 63-16 (from 49-21 and 61-19 in the past two surveys). Support for Diggs Brownand Dean Madere leveled off.

Three-fourths of those who expressed an opinion believe Gardner is the strongest Republicancandidate, significantly higher than his 68 percent showing in the January survey.

All forecasts stay about the same from the January edition Madere's predicted performance theonly one to slide downward (from about a 6-point win to a 5-point win).


Answer Options

Tom Lucero 9.9% 43

Cory Gardner 38.5% 167

Diggs Brown 7.4% 32

Dean Madere 2.1% 9




skipped question 5

If the GOP primary for the 4th Congressional District were held today, _ ____ isthe candidate I would vote for to best represent the Republican Party. (selectone)

Response

Percent

Response

Count

Answer Options

Diggs Brown 4.1% 18

Tom Lucero 7.8% 34

Cory Gardner 43.1% 187

Dean Madere 0.7% 3

Other/None of the Above 1.4% 6Don't Know/Not Applicable 42.9% 186


skipped question 5

Right now, I believe the strongest (most likely to win) GOP candidate for theCongressional District in the general election in November 2010 is _ _ _ _ _ .

ResponsePercent

ResponseCount

Markey vs. Lucero

Markey vs. Gardner

Markey vs. Brown

Markey vs. Madere

4.80 5.00 5.20 5.40 5.60 5.80 6.00 6.20 6.40

tsy Markey and the prospective Republican candidates Tom Lucero, Cory Gardner, Diggs Brown, or Dean Madere? Please indicate the LIKELIHO


5/9

7th Congressional: Ryan Frazier Remains without Rival

Excluding don't know votes, Ryan Frazier's 78-5 lead over Jimmy Lakey in the January surveyticked downward by the smallest of margins to 76-7. All others combined tally less than 10percent.

Across the board, incumbent Ed Perlmutter is seen as more vulnerable than in the January edition.Survey-takers now forecast a 7-point Ryan Frazier win, and victories of 4 or 5 points for the otherGOP competitors.


Answer Options

Ryan Frazier 38.2% 166Lang Sias 1.8% 8

J immy Lakey 3.5% 15

Mike Sheely 2.1% 9

Michael Deming 0.7% 3




skipped question 5

If the GOP primary for the 7th Congressional District were held today, _____ ithe candidate I would vote for to best represent the Republican Party. (selecone)

ResponsePercent

ResponseCount

Answer Options

Ryan Frazier 40.8% 177

Lang Sias 1.2% 5

J immy Lakey 1.8% 8

Mike Sheely 1.4% 6

Michael Deming 0.5% 2Other/None of the Above 3.5% 15



skipped question 5

Right now, I believe the strongest (most likely to win) GOP candidate for theCongressional District in the general election in November 2010 is ___ __ .

ResponsePercent

ResponseCount

Perlmutter vs. Sias

Perlmutter vs. Frazier

Perlmutter vs. Lakey

Perlmutter vs. Sheely

Perlmutter vs. Deming

5.10 5.20 5.30 5.40 5.50 5.60 5.70 5.80 5.90 6.00 6.10

t Rep. Ed Perlmutter and the prospective Republican candidates Lang Sias, Ryan Frazier, J immy Lakey, Mike Sheely, or Michael Deming? Please indicate the LIKELIH


6/9

State Treasurer: Ament's Lead Grows, Hasan Takes Over 2nd

Of voters expressing a preference, J.J. Ament now captures a full 59%, while Ali Hasan went from18% to 25% -- leaping past Walker Stapleton.

Ament's lead as the perceived strongest candidate is even larger: 64-23 over Hasan.

The collective wisdom of survey-takers rates Ament a 7-point winner over Cary Kennedy, whileboth Stapleton (5-point winner) and Hasan (3-point winner) respectively lost a point of confidencefrom January.


Answer Options

J J Ament 41.7% 181

Walker Stapleton 7.8% 34

Muhammad Ali Hasan 18.0% 78




skipped question 5

If the GOP primary for Treasurer were held today, __ _ _ _ is the candidate Ivote for to best represent the Republican Party. (select one)

ResponsePercent

ResponseCount

Answer Options

J J Ament 44.6% 193

Walker Stapleton 6.7% 29

Muhammad Ali Hasan 15.7% 68




skipped question 6

Right now I believe the strongest (most likely to win) candidate for Treasurthe general election in November 2010 is _ _ _ _ .

ResponsePercent

ResponseCount

Kennedy vs. Ament

Kennedy vs. Stapleton

Kennedy vs. Hasan

4.40 4.60 4.80 5.00 5.20 5.40 5.60 5.80 6.00 6.20

etween the incumbent Treasurer Cary Kennedy and the prospective Republican candidates J.J. Ament, Walker Stapleton or Ali Hasan? Pleas


7/9

Interest in GOP Caucus Participation Suggests BiggerNumbers for 2010

Excluding those ineligible to participate, survey-takers discuss their caucusexperience and plans:

- 64% have participated in a Colorado Republican caucus at least once in the last three previouselection cycles ('04, '06, '08).- 85% identify as a registered Republican voter who will participate in the caucus on March 16.- 63% identify as a registered Republican voter who will participate in the caucus on March 16and will seek a delegate position to my county assembly in April.

^^^^^

Survey-takers were asked how frequently they use 16 differentsources ofinformation for politics at the local level--Federal candidates for Colorado,

Colorado State Legislature, Colorado state-wide offices, etc. -- Listed below inorder of average frequency:

1. Internet, email: about once per day2. Radio, live programs on local talk radio stations3. Television

4. Internet, political sections of local newspapers and other news outlets5. Internet, political campaign sites6. Internet, news aggregation sites (e.g., Drudge)7. Internet, political blogs8. Newspapers: about once per week9. Internet, Facebook10. Political Organizations, not including Think Tanks11. Internet, radio programs live or via podcast (pre-recorded)12. Newsletters13. Think Tanks14. (tied) Internet, text messages15. (tied) Magazines16. Internet, Twitter: less than once per month

^^^^^

Other Race Predictions: Secretary of State and Attorney General

Little change from the January edition ... Survey-makers predict a 7-point victory for Scott Gesslerover Bernie Buescher in the Secretary of State race, and a 10-point re-election victory for AttorneyGeneral John Suthers.


Suthers vs. "Other DEM"

a head- to-head matchup between the incumbent Attorney General John Suthers and "Other DEM"? Please indicate the LIKELIH

Buescher vs. Gessler

appointed Secretary of State Bernie Buescher and the prospective Republican candidate Scott Gessler? Please indicate the LIKELIH


8/9


9/9

Opinion QuestionsParticipants were asked to rate their relative agreement with a series of issue statements onprominent policy issues, philosophy, and political dynamics, based on a 7-point Likert scale (1 =Strongly disagree; 2 = Disagree; 3 = Somewhat Disagree; 4 = Neither Agree nor Disagree; 5 =Somewhat agree; 6 = Agree; 7 = Strongly agree).

State Level Questions. Of the 10 state level questions, 3 received a rating higher than 5,indicating a significant level of agreement (previous rating in parentheses, if available):1. Voter-approved retention of Colorado Supreme Court justices is a necessary check on judicialoverreach. 6.28 (6.08)2. Colorado's Supreme Court is, on balance, too partisan. 6.16 (6.09)3. Essential services is just another euphemism for entitlement programs. 5.59 (5.71)

Two statements received a rating lower than 3, indicating a significant level of disagreement:1. There is little or no room to contract the state government payroll without cutting essentialservices that benefit Coloradans. 2.46 (2.82)2. The Colorado legislature needs to pass the package of "tax credit exemption" bills to closecorporate loopholes and raise revenues for state government. 2.76 (N/A)

Federal Level Questions. Of the 8 federal level questions, 3 received a rating higher than 6,indicating a high level of agreement (previous rating in parentheses, if available):

1. The election of Scott Brown in Massachusetts makes me optimistic about the 2010 midtermelection. 6.16 (N/A)2. President Barack Obamas policies will hurt Democrats in Colorado in the 2010 midtermelection. 6.14 (6.36)3. Michael Bennet's vote to raise the federal debt ceiling will hurt his chances to win election inNovember. 6.10 (N/A)

General Questions. Of the 10 general issue statements, 3 received a rating of 6 or higher,indicating a high level of agreement (previous rating in parentheses, if available):1. I would describe myself, on balance, as a fiscal or free market conservative. 6.65 (6.56)2.It is not about "left vs. right" but about the power of government vs. the rights of the individual.6.03 (6.11)3.The TEA Parties are an effective method of voicing opinions on the size of government and

taxation. 6.01 (5.97)

One statement received a rating lower than 2, indicating a high level of disagreement:1. My overall opinion of Democrats is positive. 1.68 (1.62)


Survey Results Analysis 021510

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