Surplus Volumes of Transfer of Rights
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Transcript of Surplus Volumes of Transfer of Rights
1
Surplus Volumes of
Transfer of Rights
Maria das Graças Silva Foster
CEO
Rio de Janeiro, June 27th of 2014
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Transfer of Rights
Through the Transfer of Rights agreement, Petrobras
acquired the rights to explore, evaluate and produce up to 5
billion boe in six areas of Santos basin pre-salt. For this
transaction, Petrobras paid R$ 75 billion (US$ 42 billion) in
2010, subject to a review, after the declarations of
commerciality.
Area Volume
MM boe
Florim 467
Búzios 3,058
Sul de Guará 319
Entorno de Iara 600
Sul de Lula 128
NE Tupi 428
Total 5,000
Concessão
Cessão Onerosa
Partilha de Produção
Contracted Volumes in
2010
Ongoing discussions on the
Transfer of Rights will not be
affected by the Surplus Volumes.
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Complying with regulations, Petrobras informed the ANP
the estimates for volumes in Buzios, in the Declaration of
Commerciality, in Dec/13, indicating the expectation of up to
7 billion boe in surplus volumes in this field (recoverable
volume of 10 billion boe)
Areas
Additional Volumes to the Transfer of Rights Contract from 9.8
to 15.2 billion boe, according to ANP
(million boe)
Búzios Between 6.500 and 10.000
Entorno de Iara Between 2.500 and 4.000
Florim Between 300 and 500
Nordeste de Tupi Between 500 and 700
Source: CNPE Resolution N. 1, June, 24 2014.
Transfer of Rights Areas Have Great Potential Already Known and Proven
Búzios Module 1 (transfer of rights) P-74: First Oil: 2016 Capacity: 150 thousand barrels/day
Physical Progress (may/14): 55.5%
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Field / Area Area (km2)
Contracted Volume Transfer of Rights
(bilion boe)
Drilled wells or in progress
Tested wells or with tests in
progress
CO2 content in gas (%)
Lula 1,523 Not applicable 36 24 10 - 20%
Lula / área de
Iracema Not applicable 16 5 very low
Sapinhoá 233 Not applicable 19 7 15 - 20%
Buzios 852 3.1 10 8 22 - 25%
Entorno de Iara 611 0.6 3 1 25 - 35%
NE Tupi 291 0.4 2 2 15 - 20%
Florim 292 0.5 2 1 very low
Sul de Lula 203 0.1 1 1 17%
Sul de Guará 145 0.3 1 0 15%
Libra 1,548 Not applicable 1 1 45%
• Transfer of Right Areas already have a
significant number of wells drilled and tested, with excellent results
•Great potential per well, in line with the projects already in production of pre-salt
Santos Basin, sanctioined with 20 thousand bpd and results that reach up to 35 thousand bpd
• Projects under development in progress,
without any foreseeable additional risks related to volumes, reservoir properties, technologies and the availability of the
required equipments and services to the projects
• Surplus volumes projects can "replicate"
Transfer of Rights projects, with large
gains in the learning curve and cost optimization
High Degree of Maturity Areas of the pre-salt Santos Basin L
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Access to the Transfer of Rights Surplus:
1. Replaces the accumulated production of six years in the period 2020-2030 (replacement of 1.6 to 1.8 billion boe / year)
2. Assures in advance the potential volume with low exploration risk (Exploratory Success Ratios: 100%)
3. Allows higher selectivity in future bidding for exploration areas
4. Considering the current Finding Costs (US$ 2.66 / boe, Petrobras’ average in 2013), it would be necessary to invest around US$ 26 billion to acquire areas (bonus payment), discover and define (seismic, exploration wells and delineation) potential estimated volume of Transfer of Rights Surplus
5. Estimated Finding Costs savings: US$ 18 billion (2015-2021)
Acquisition of Transfer of Rights Surplus Volumes Signature of Trasfer of Rights
Agreement
Transfer of Rights 4 years
Surplus Volumes of The Transfer of Rights: 9.8 to 15.2 Billion of boe
Great Potential with Low Risk Leading to Reduction of Investments in Exploration
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1st Oil from Transfer of Rights
1st Oil from Transfer of Rights Surplus
Exploration /
Delineation Production
Development Production
Ris
co
3D Seismic (2,159 km²) 17 wells drilled in the 4 areas Formation Tests and EWT
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Transfer of Rights and Production Sharing Contracts (PSC): Regulatory Framework and
Simultaneous Production - Búzios Case
Production Sharing Contracts (6.5 a 10 Billion boe)
(35 years)
Transfer of Rights (3.058 Billion boe)
(40 year / volume limit)
Transfer of Rights
Signature: Sep/10
End of production of
contracted volume
Transfer of Rights Units
continue to produce
under PSC
End of SVRT Production
Sharing term
2010 2040
Transfer of Rights
Contract
Transfer of Rights Contract
+ Production Sharing
Contract
Production Sharing Contract
1st oil of Búzios SVRT: 2021
2050
End of Transfer of Rights
term
2051 2021
1st oil of Búzios: 2016
Beginning of Production
Sharing Contract term
(SVTR*)
2016
Simultaneous
Production
*SVRT: Surplus Volume of The Transfer of Rights
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Petrobras Big Choice for the E&P segment
Strategic Plan Approved by the Board of Directors on 02/25/2014
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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Brazil*: Sustainable Pace Petrobras: PE 2030
Petrobras: SP 2030 + Abroad Petrobras: Média 2013-2020
Petrobras: Média Exterior 2013-2020 Petrobras: Média Exterior 2016-2020
Petrobras: Média 2016-2020
4,2 •Petrobras Average Production in Brazil* and Abroad
2020-2030: 4.0 million bpd
Average 2020-2030
Petrobras Average Production in Brazil* 2020-2030: 3.7 million bpd
Average Oil Production in Brazil* Petrobras (70%) + Third Parties (26%) + Government (4%) 2020-2030:
5.2 million bpd
•Petrobras Average Production in Brazil* and
Abroad 2013-2020:
•3.0 million bpd
Petrobras Average Production in Brazil* 2013-2020:
•2.9 million bpd
• Brazil’s production according to Petrobras’s view and reasoning, considering different paces for the bid rounds put forward by the Government
To produce on average 4.0 million barrels of oil per day in the 2020-2030 period, under Petrobras’
ownership in Brazil and abroad, acquiring exploration rights to meet this objective E&P
E&P
Webcast on 02/26/2014 and Meeting with Analysts on 03/24/2014.
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Petrobras Contracted for a 100% of These Areas Ensures Our Reserves Reposition and
Production Sustainability in the 2020-2030 Horizon, with Higher Profitability
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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Petrobras: 2030 SP
4,2
2020-2030 Average
3.7 million of bpd (16 BIDs and SVTR = 50% Petrobras in 2026)
The Surplus Volumes of Transfer of Rights (SVTR) allow that the 2020-2030 production level be raised to up to 4.2 million barrel per day, maximizing profitability through a selective participation on bid rounds and portfolio management (divestments).
2020-2030 Petrobras Average Production in Brazil
4.2 million of bpd (14 BIDs and SVTR = 100% Petrobras in 2021)
500 thous. bpd
The Surplus Volumes of the Transfer of Rights Contracts implies:
• Reduction of participation in new BIDS from 16 to 14 (2015-2030), according to
Petrobras’s view and reasoning adopted in 2030 SP, which was approved by the
Board of Director in 02/25/2014
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Production Units Planned in the Business Plan
and Petrobras Strategic Plan 1st Oil 2014-2020
SVTR
SVTR SVTR
SVTR
SVTR
SVTR
SVTR
SVTR
SVTR
P-62 Roncador IV
Cid Ilhabela Sapinhoá Norte
P-61 Papa-Terra
Cid Mangaratiba Iracema Sul
Cid Itaguaí Iracema Norte
Cid. Maricá Lula Alto
Cid Saquarema Lula Central
P-74 Búzios 1
P-66 Lula Sul
P-67 Lula Norte
Cid Caraguatatuba
Lapa
P-75 Búzios 2
P-68 Lula Ext. Sul e
CO Sul de Tupi
P-69 Lula Oeste
P-76 Búzios 3
Tartaruga Verde and Mestiça
P-70 Iara Horst
P-77 Búzios 4
Júpiter
Búzios 5
Deep Water ES
P-72 NE de Tupi
P-71 Iara NW
Marlim I Revitalization
Sul Pq. Baleias
Deep Water I SE
Carcará
Maromba I
P-73 Iara Surrounding
Libra
Deep Water II SE
Espadarte III
Marlim II Revitalization
Florim
SVTR
Planning includes: projects already announced in BMP, projects to be announced in the next BMPs, projects to revitalize the p roduction, new units
planned in areas with volumes under long term evaluation and appraisal for the next discoveries
Surplus Volumes of Transfer of Rights:
Increase of Investments From 2019 On for a 1st Oil Beginning in 2021
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2026 2027 2028 2029 2022 2023 2024 2030 2025 2015 2014 2013 2016
Cid Itajaí Baúna
P-61 Papa-Terra
Cid Paraty Lula NE Pilot
P-63 Papa-Terra
P-58 Norte Pq.
Baleias
P-55 Roncador III
Cid São Paulo Sapinhoá Pilot
P-62 Roncador IV
TAD Papa-Terra
P-58 Norte Pq.
Baleias
TAD Papa-Terra
Maturity Increase of Naval and Offshore industry in Brazil
9 Units
Completed
Surplus Volume of Transfer of Rights (SVTR)
Other Areas under Concession or Production Sharing Agreement
Transfer of Rights
Unit Completed in 2013 with 1st Oil in 2014
Sete Brasil Drilling Rigs Construction: 28 units by 2020
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2017 2016 2015 2027 2026 2025 2014 2013 2024 2023 2028 2019 2018 2030 2029 2022 2021 2020
US
$ b
illi
on
Average ex-E&P Investments: US$ 10.6 billion/year Average ex-E&P Investments: US$ 3.8 billion/year
Petrobras Investments Will Be Even More Concentrated in E&P Lower Investments in the Other Segments Enable Additional Investments in E&P in Brazil
Petrobras ex-E&P investments in Brazil in the 2014-2018 BMP / 2030 Strategic Plan
Average annual investments will fall from US$ 45.6 billion between 2013 and 2020 to US$ 26.6 billion between 2021 and 2030, mainly due to the conclusion, by 2020, of Downstream projects (RNEST, Comperj, Premium I, Premium II) and G&P projects (UFN-III, UFN-V,
Routes 2 and 3)
Petrobras Total E&P Investments in Brazil in the 2014-2018 BMP / 2030 Strategic Plan
Investments in “Under Implementation” Portfolio + “Under Bidding process” Portfolio (Partnerships in the Premiums Refineries)
Average Investments in E&P: US$ 35 billion/year
Petrobras Average Production in Brazil: 2.9 million bpd
Average Investments in E&P: US$ 22.8 billion/year
Petrobras Average Production in Brazil: 3.7 – 4.2 million bpd
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Financial Planning with the Surplus Volumes 2014-2018 BMP: No material impact in results and debt ratios
I – 2014-2018 BMP ASSUMPTIONS:
• Oil Production: 7.5% Growth (+/- 1pp) in 2014, 3.2 million bpd in 2018, 4.2 million bpd in 2020
• Price Readjustments: According to the policy presented to the Board in Nov/2013.
• Divestments: Assumes US$ 11 billion in divestments in the 2014-2018 period.
• Business Model Restructurings (Change of Capex for Opex): Assumes inflows of US$ 9.9 billion in the 2014-2018
period.
• Brent Prices: 104.72 US$/bbl in 2014, 100 US$/bbl from 2015 to 2017 and 95 US$/bbl from 2018 on.
• Weaker FX: 2014 = 2.44 R$/US$; 2015 = 2.56 R$/US$; 2016 on = 2.59 R$/US$.
• Stronger FX: 2014 = 2.23 R$/US$; 2015 = 2.10 R$/US$; 2016 on = 1.92 R$/US$.
II – IMPACTS IN INVESTIMENTS:
Investments (US$ billion) 2014-2018 2019-2020 2021-2030
2014-2018 BMP – Implementation+Bidding 206.8 - -
Bonus – Surplus Volumes 0.8 0 0
Antecipation of Profit Oil – Surplus Volumes 5.0 0 0
Additional Investments 1.2 9.7 39.8
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2014-2018 BMP Financiability (US$ 206.8 billion) + Surplus Volumes of the Transfer of Rights 2014-2018 BMP: No material impact in results and debt ratios.
Depreciated FX Rate 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-2030
Net Debt/EBITDA
2014-2018 BMP 4.61 2.73 1.93 1.68 1.41 1.06 0.95 1.04 to 1.13
+Transfer of Rights
Surplus 4.64 2.77 1.91 1.76 1.53 1.17 1.02 0.95 to 1.21
Leverage
BMP 2014-2018 44.6% 42.0% 37.0% 33.3% 29.3% 25.1% 25% 25%
+Transfer of Rights
Surplus 44.7% 42.3% 37.3% 34.2% 31.1% 26.3% 25.1% 25%
Average Annual Gross
Borrowing (Average Annual Net
Borrowing)
BMP 2014-2018 8.2 (-0.2) 10.5 (-2.5) *
+Transfer of Rights
Surplus 10.2 (1.7) 13.3 (-4.2) *
III – IMPACTS IN THE FINANCIABILITY DURING THE PERIOD OF THE 2014-2018 BMP :
In the 2014-18 BMP: 3.5 % growth in investment (including bonus)
Net Debt/EBITDA and Leverage: No material impact
IV – EQUITY ISSUANCE IS NOT CONTEMPLATED (CAPITALIZATION)
* Borrowings during the period 2021-2030 aim at maintaining leverage at 25% in this simulation and are not
related to the investment volume, which will be totally financed by cash generation.
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Conclusions Price Convergence, Divestments and Financial Restructuring Assumptions for the BMP 2014-108 are kept
I – The direct contract for 100% of the Surplus Volume of the Transfer of Rights (SVTR) grant Petrobras:
• Areas with excelent potential, with low risk, already known and proven
• Potential recoverable volumes between 9.8 and 15.2 billion boe
• Possibility to increase production in Brazil between 2020 and 2030 to up to 4.2 million bpd
• Maximize the profitability for the selective participation in future bids and E&P portfolio management (divestments in areas under concession)
II – The simultaneous production in SVTR will allow the optimization of production and infrastructure
resources, as well as anticipate the production of the volumes of the surplus
III – In the 2014-2018 period investment will grow by 3.5% and the SVTR does not bring material impact to the
financiability indicators
IV – Between 2020-2030 the average annual total investment will decrease and will be more concentrated in
E&P, and oil production in Brazil will be at a higher level relative to the average of the period 2013-2020
V – Equity Issuance is not contemplated (capitalization)
VI – The SVTR contract is aligned with the Strategic Plan 2030, approved by the Board of Directors in
February 25th 2014
The End