WORLD WHEATSource:  US  Wheat  Associates  monthly  supply  and  demand  report,  found  on  

their  website:  h;p://www.uswheat.org/

The World Wheat Market

Year

Production

Consumption

Surplus (shortfall)

09/10 10/11 11/12

686 652 694

650 654 684

36 -2 10

0 1

Major Users of Wheat

China 115 million tons per annum

India 90 million tons per annum

South Africa

0 2

3,10 million tons per annum, including exports to ourAfrican neighbors- not really a factor

World wheat supply & demand

Date 10/11 11/12 12/13

Supply

Trade

Demand

Endingstocks

200 197 197

651 695 678

851 891 875

132 147 137

538 547 553

116 148 134

654 694 686

197 197 188

Exports/imports

Beginning stockProductionSupply total

Food & seedFeed & residualUse tool

0 3

World Ending Stocks

0 4

U.S. Situation

0 5

Wheat Expectations

 World wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are forecast to increase by 5,5% to 210 million tons. World wheat consumption is expected to increase by a massive 30 million tons (+4,6%) especially in the feed market competing directly with corn (+19 million tons). US old season corn prices are expected to remain firm due to US corn stocks being at a 15 year low. Black Sea wheat production has rebounded to 114,3 million tons from only 81,1 million tons in 2010/11. New season Ukraine wheat has been hit by frost and is expected to be 15% less. The freeze in Jan/Feb also had an impact on the German/Polish crop, the extent of the damage is uncertain until harvest. World wheat production is forecast to increase to a record 694 million tons in 2011/12 (+6,4%).

0 6

World Estimates

WHEAT

ProductionTrade

Consumption

02.04 26.04

08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 est12/13forecast

685 679 654 695 681 676

Carryover stocks

Year/ year change

Major exporters

ProductionTradeConsumption

Carryover stocks

Year/ year change

137 128 126 140 136 135645 652 655 684 683 680

173 200 198 210 208 206

+41 +27 -2 +12 -4

69 78 73 76 73 70

800 820 828 865 900 90084 86 93 94 100 100784 821 844 869 893 893

150 148 133 128 129 135

+16 -2 -15 -5 +7

MAIZE

0 7

Argentina Situation

0 8

Black Sea Region Situation

0 9

U.S. Ending Stocks

0 11

EU – Ending Stocks

0 10

Global Ending Stocks & Price

0 12

Date

Opening stock

Production

Imports

478

Consumption

Exports

Closing stock

1950

1500

3105

288

535

11/12

Supply & demand of wheat in South

0 13

Wheat Summary

 2011/12 world wheat crop estimated 6,4% higher than 2010/11 crop.

2011/12 world wheat consumption estimated 4,6% higher than 2010/11 crop. US wheat prices are now competitive and exports have increased even to Egypt.  New season local wheat crop forecast to increase to 1,950 million tons up from 1,430 million tons in 2010/11. The local market therefore needs less imports around 1,50 million tons this season to balance demand. Local wheat prices for May is currently fairly priced between Argentine inland and coastal import parity prices.

The competition for acres in the US is intensifying, taking cognizance of the low US corn stock level, with some spring wheat acres expected to be planted to corn.

0 14

R / US$ Exchange rate

0 15

U.S. FOB PNW Prices

0 16

Kansas May Future Prices (HRW Wheat)

0 17

Local Prices / SAFEX May 2012 Wheat Prices

0 18

2950

2900

2850

2800

2750

2700

R/ ton

2650

Thank you