Supply Demand Structure Of Synthetic Fibers
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Medium and Long TermProspects of World Fiber Demand and
Supply/Demand Structure of Synthetic Fibers
Third Conference ofThird Conference ofAsian Chemical Fiber Industries Asian Chemical Fiber Industries
PresidentPresidentJapan Chemical Fibres AssociationJapan Chemical Fibres Association
Hiroto MatsuoHiroto Matsuo
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II Fiber Supply and Demand in 1998Fiber Supply and Demand in 1998
IIII Forecast of Fiber Supply and Demand in 2003Forecast of Fiber Supply and Demand in 2003
IIIIII International Trade of Four Major Synthetic FibersInternational Trade of Four Major Synthetic Fibers
IVIV Forecast of Supply and Demand for Synthetic Fiber Raw MaterialsForecast of Supply and Demand for Synthetic Fiber Raw Materials
VV ConclusionsConclusions
2
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II Fiber Supply and Demand in 1998Fiber Supply and Demand in 1998
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Worldwide Final Fiber Consumption in 1998
(Million tons)(Million tons)
Forecast FiguresForecast Figures Actual ResultsActual Results
All Fibers 44.5All Fibers 44.5
Cotton 19.3Cotton 19.3
Synthetic Fibers 20.9Synthetic Fibers 20.9
45.345.3
19.019.0
22.722.7
4
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Million tonsMillion tons
5-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Cotton Wool Synthetic Cellulosic
Worldwide Final Fiber ConsumptionDifferences between Forecast Figures and
Actual Results in 1998
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Capacity Production
Million tonsMillion tons
6Forecast Actual10
12
14
16
18
20
Production Capacity and Production of Four Major Synthetic Fibers in Asia
Capacity Utilization 78%Capacity Utilization 78%
Gap 4.1 Million tons
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Capacity
1,6762,7433,8552,7263,4102,506
16,916
Production
1,3212,4833,4462,4762,7552,343
14,823
JapanKoreaChinese TaipeiASEANChinaOthersAsian total
Demand
9992,0572,4852,5703,9052,488
14,503
1,6452,9253,8122,5235,1602,598
18,663
1,2812,4173,1031,7644,3441,689
14,599
JapanKoreaChinese TaipeiASEANChinaOthersAsian total
8861,3481,9101,6805,7491,883
13,457
ForecastForecast
ActualActual
Forecast Figures and Actual Results in 1998Forecast Figures and Actual Results in 1998
(1000 tons)(1000 tons)
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1000 tons1000 tons
Differences between Forecast Figures and Actual Results in 1998Differences between Forecast Figures and Actual Results in 1998
Capacity Capacity
-30-30
182182
-43-43
-203-203
1,7501,750
9191
1,7471,747
Production Production
-40-40
-66-66
-343-343
-711-711
1,5901,590
-654-654
-224-224
JapanJapan
KoreaKorea
Chinese TaipeiChinese Taipei
ASEANASEAN
ChinaChina
OthersOthers
Asian totalAsian total
DemandDemand
-112-112
-709-709
-575-575
-890-890
1,8451,845
-605-605
-1,046-1,0468
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II Fiber Supply and Demand in 1998Fiber Supply and Demand in 1998
IIII Forecast of Fiber Supply and Demandin 2003Forecast of Fiber Supply and Demandin 2003
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0
10
20
30
40
50
1970 80 90 98 `03
Worldwide Final Fiber Consumption
Million tons
70-803.1%
80-902.7%
90-982.2%
98-032.0%
10
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Worldwide Final Fiber Consumption
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
70 80 90 98 03
Cotton
Synthetic
Others
Million tons
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1998 2003
Worldwide Production Capacity ofFour Major Synthetic Fibers
Million tonsMillion tons
PPolyester Folyester F
NNylon Fylon FNNylon Fylon F
Total Total 28.928.9Total Total 28.928.9 Total Total 33.633.6Total Total 33.633.6
AAcrylic Scrylic SAAcrylic Scrylic S
PPolyester Solyester SPPolyester Solyester S
453
5
9
1212
10
1414
12
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ProductionProductionProductionProduction
Case ACase ACase ACase A 27.027.027.027.0
Case BCase BCase BCase B 30.330.330.330.3
CapacityCapacityCapacityCapacity
33.633.633.633.6
(Million tons)(Million tons)
FinalFinalConsumptionConsumption
FinalFinalConsumptionConsumption
25.425.425.425.4
13
Forecast of Worldwide Production of Four Major Synthetic Fibers in 2003
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20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
Gap-between Production and Final Consumption-
(in 2003)
Million tons
Case BCase B Case ACase A
8.24.9
1.6
Capacity Final Cons.Production14
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Gap -between Production and Mill Consumption-
(in 2003)
-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8
Case A Case B
Million tons
Polyester FPolyester SNylon FAcrylic S
Oversupply
Supply Shortage15
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AAmericas
mericas
AAmericas
mericas
OOthersthers
OOthersthers
OOthersthers
OOthersthers
AAsiasiaAAsiasia
WW Europe
Europe
WW Europe
Europe
EE Europe
Europe
EE Europe
Europe
AAsiasiaAAsiasia
WW Europe
Europe
WW Europe
Europe
EE Europe
Europe
EE Europe
Europe
AAmericas
mericas
AAmericas
mericas
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Million tons
Case ACase ACase ACase A Case BCase BCase BCase B
16
Gap -between Production and Mill Consumption-
(in 2003)
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
CCapacityapacityCCapacityapacity MMill Consumptionill ConsumptionMMill Consumptionill Consumption
Polyester FilamentPolyester FilamentMillion tonsMillion tons
Forecast of Fiber Supply and Demandin Asia
Case ACase A Case BCase B
(as of 2003)
17Production
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Polyester FilamentPolyester FilamentMillion tonsMillion tons
Gap -between Production and Mill Consumption-
in Asia
(as of 2003)
18
OthersOthers
CaseCase A ACaseCase A A Case Case BBCase Case BB
0.60.60.60.61.71.7
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Polyester StaplePolyester StapleMillion tonsMillion tons (as of 2003)
Forecast of Fiber Supply and Demandin Asia
19CCapacityapacityCCapacityapacity MMill Consumptionill ConsumptionMMill Consumptionill ConsumptionCase ACase A Case BCase B
Production
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Polyester StaplePolyester Staple
Million tonsMillion tons
GapGap A AGapGap A A Gap Gap BBGap Gap BB
(as of 2003)
OthersOthers
0.450.450.450.45 1.351.351.351.35
20
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II Fiber Supply and Demand in 1998Fiber Supply and Demand in 1998
IIII Forecast of Fiber Supply and Demand in 2003Forecast of Fiber Supply and Demand in 2003
IIIIII International Trade of Four Major Synthetic FibersInternational Trade of Four Major Synthetic Fibers
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1985 1990 1995 199810
12
14
16
18
20
22
Direct Exports of Four Major Synthetic Fibers
Export ratioExport ratioExport ratioExport ratio
ProductionProduction
ExportExport
Million tons %
22
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Percentage Share of Imports in Mill Consumption
<Four Major Synthetic Fibers in China>
23
25.5%
16.3%
1.47 (1.47 (Million tonsMillion tons))1.47 (1.47 (Million tonsMillion tons)) 1.16 (1.16 (Million tonsMillion tons))1.16 (1.16 (Million tonsMillion tons))ImportsImportsImportsImports
<1998><1998><1998><1998> <2003><2003><2003><2003>
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U.S. Apparel Imports by Origin
East Asia
Others
CBI /NAFTA
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Billion SMEBillion SME
(Note) Asia: China, ASEAN, Korea, Chinese Taipei and Hong Kong(Note) Asia: China, ASEAN, Korea, Chinese Taipei and Hong Kong24
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II Fiber Supply and Demand in 1998Fiber Supply and Demand in 1998
IIII Forecast of Fiber Supply and Demand in 2003Forecast of Fiber Supply and Demand in 2003
IIIIII International Trade of Four Major Synthetic FibersInternational Trade of Four Major Synthetic Fibers
IVIV Forecast of Supply and Demand for Synthetic Fiber Raw MaterialsForecast of Supply and Demand for Synthetic Fiber Raw Materials
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Terephthalic Acid (in 2003)
0
10
20
30
Capacity Demand Case A Case B
Million tonsMillion tons
for Fiber uses
Required PTA26
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Caprolactam (in 2003)
0
1
2
3
4
5
Capacity Demand Case A Case B
27
Million tonsMillion tons
for Fiber uses
Required CPL
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- Present Situation and Future Tasks- Necessary Measures
28
II Fiber Supply and Demand in 1998Fiber Supply and Demand in 1998
IIII Forecast of Fiber Supply and Demand in 2003Forecast of Fiber Supply and Demand in 2003
IIIIII International Trade of Four Major Synthetic FibersInternational Trade of Four Major Synthetic Fibers
IVIV Forecast of Supply and Demand for Synthetic Fiber Raw MaterialsForecast of Supply and Demand for Synthetic Fiber Raw Materials
VV ConclusionsConclusions
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Conclusion 1: Present Situation and Future Tasks
Oversupply of Synthetic FibersOversupply of Synthetic Fibers
Changes in International Trade StructureChanges in International Trade Structure
Raw Materials for Synthetic FibersRaw Materials for Synthetic Fibers
Environmental ProblemsEnvironmental Problems
Expanding of Fiber DemandExpanding of Fiber Demand
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22 .. Supply SideSupply Side22 .. Supply SideSupply Side
33 .. International TradeInternational Trade33 .. International TradeInternational Trade
11 . . Expansion of DemandExpansion of Demand11 . . Expansion of DemandExpansion of Demand
Conclusion 2 : Necessary Measures
30
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11 . . Expansion of DemandExpansion of Demand11 . . Expansion of DemandExpansion of Demand
Conclusion 2 : Necessary Measures
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Conclusion 2-1: Expansion of Demand
Efforts for Expansion of Consumption in Asia
– Increasing Shares of Chemical Fiber in Existing Markets
– Developing Demand in Non-apparel Applications
32
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22 . . Supply SideSupply Side22 . . Supply SideSupply Side
11 . . Expansion ofExpansion of DemandDemand11 . . Expansion ofExpansion of DemandDemand
Conclusion 2 : Necessary Measures
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Conclusion 2-2: Supply Side
Sharing of InformationSharing of Information
Production matched to Actual DemandProduction matched to Actual Demand
– Establishment of Open and More Accurate Establishment of Open and More Accurate Statistical SystemStatistical System
34
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Conclusion 2: Necessary Measures
35
2 . Supply Side2 . Supply Side
33 . . International TradeInternational Trade33 . . International TradeInternational Trade
1 . Expansion of Demand1 . Expansion of Demand
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Conclusion 2-3: International Trade
Establishment of Free and Fair Trade System
Development of New Markets and Further Expansion of Domestic Demand
36
Establishment of Orderly Trade System
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Sharing of ResponsibilitySharing of Responsibility
Sharing of InformationSharing of Information
Sharing of ProsperitySharing of Prosperity
Sharing of 3 Factors:Sharing of 3 Factors:Sharing of 3 Factors:Sharing of 3 Factors:
Conclusions 3: In Closing
37
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JCFAJCFA
Hiroto MatsuoHiroto Matsuo
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