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Transcript of Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems...

  • Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008

    Wednesday 7th May 2008

    Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive Electronic/Electrical Markets

    Antonio Ferreira Senior Manager, European Supply Chain and Technology Forecasts

    © Daimler

  • 2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

    Introduction

    Trends

    Technologies

    Conclusion

    Presentation

    Outline

    © Volvo

  • 2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

    Established in 1991 Headquarters in Detroit Privately Held 120 Employees Worldwide 11 Global Offices 4 European Offices 100% Automotive

    CSM Overview

    CSM Introduction

  • 2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

    Global Coverage

    CSM Introduction

  • 2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

    SCT Introduction

    16 Vehicle Systems Globally

  • 2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

    SCT Introduction

    64 Scheduled Components/Global Markets

  • 2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

    Introduction

    Trends

    Technologies

    Conclusion

    Presentation

    Outline

    © Volvo

  • 2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

    1. Fuel Economy 2. Low-Cost Vehicles 3. BRIC Markets 4. Low-Cost Sourcing 5. Active & Passive Safety 6. Infotainment 7. Raw Materials Demand/Cost 8. Recyclability 9. X-by-Wire 10. Car Networking Platforms 11. Weight Savings 12. Content Increase 13. Part Commonization 14. Interior & Exterior Lighting 15. Nano Technologies

    Etc...

    Top Trends

    Trends

    2008 2013 2018

    < 5 Years > < 5 Years >

  • 2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

    Global Light Vehicle Sales

    6.2 4.4

    5.6 7.9

    5.3

    2.0

    16.9 18.6

    3.6

    3.9

    1.6

    1.2

    1.0

    2.5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25 N A m e ri c a

    W E u ro p e

    J a p a n /K o re a

    S A m e ri c a

    C /E E u ro p e

    G re a te r C h in a

    S o u th A s ia

    M E /A fr ic a

    M il li o n s

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    7%

    8%

    9%

    10%

    2008-14 Growth

    2008

    2008-14 CAGR% (R-axis)

    0%

    100%

    7 6 % D e v e lo p in g M a rk e ts

    S Asia 25%

    Greater China

    27%

    C/E Europe 11%

    N America 17%

    S America 8%

    W Europe 7%

    Contribution To Growth

    2008 - 2014 Middle

    East/Africa 3%

    Trends

  • 2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    M ill io n s N America

    W Europe

    Japan/Korea

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50 1 9 9 7

    1 9 9 8

    1 9 9 9

    2 0 0 0

    2 0 0 1

    2 0 0 2

    2 0 0 3

    2 0 0 4

    2 0 0 5

    2 0 0 6

    2 0 0 7

    2 0 0 8

    2 0 0 9

    2 0 1 0

    2 0 1 1

    2 0 1 2

    2 0 1 3

    2 0 1 4

    M il li o n s S Asia

    Greater China

    C/E Europe

    S America

    M East/Africa

    43.3 45.4 45.0

    48.3

    9.0 10.5

    25.7

    39.1

    Developed Market 2008-2014 Growth Rate 1.2%

    52 56

    71

    87

    Global Light Vehicle Production

    Developing Market 2008-2014 Growth Rate 6.2%

    Global 2008-2014 Growth Rate 3.6%

    Trends

  • 2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

    Global Low-Cost Light Vehicle Production

    Trends

    2014

    2004 1997

    2008

    0.0

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    O u t p u t i n M il li o n s

    South

    Asia

    South

    America

    Japan Korea

    Mid-East/Africa

    Greater China

    Europe

    4.2M

    0.4M

  • 2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

    PEST Factors

    Constant Improvement

    Content & Complexity Increase

    Network Platforms

    Energy & Power

    Evolution NOT Revolution

    Present Electronic Trends

    Trends

    © Dow

  • 2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

    Introduction

    Trends

    Technologies

    Conclusion

    Presentation

    Outline

    © Volvo

  • 2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

    Brake & Chassis: • Brake Assembly • Brake Controls • Steering Gear • Damper

    Driver Support: • Keyless/Passive Entry • Tire Pressure Monitoring • Adaptive Cruise Control

    Electrical: • Junction Box • Wire Harness • Engine ECU

    Lighting: • Forward Lighting

    Infotainment • Navigation System

    Engine: • Hybrid Systems

    Safety: • Airbag Module

    • Occupant Classification

    Technologies

    Systems & Components

  • 2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

    Brake Assembly

    Technologies – Brake & Chassis

    48% 47% 45% 42% 36% 32% 29%

    36% 29% 30% 31%

    34% 33%

    33%

    14% 21% 20% 20% 22%

    19% 16%

    0% 0% 2% 4% 5% 13%

    19%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    TBD

    Brembo

    Aisin

    Bosch

    CAS

    TRW

    EU Electric Parking Brake Suppliers 6.9M 10.8M3.9M+

    TRW

    48%

    CAS

    37%

    Bosch

    14%

    Aisin

    1%

    TRW

    CAS

    Bosch

    Aisin

    2008

    EU Electric Parking Brake Suppliers

    Cable vs Motor

    Fault Tolerance/Reliability Back-up systems

    True vs False Brake-by-Wire

    Braking, Steering and Suspension

    JVs, Partnerships and Acquisitions

    < 5 Years > < 5 Years >

    Braking-by-Wire

    2013 2018

    E v o lu ti o n

    6.9M2008

    - Maturity

    - Growth

    - Introduc tion

    - Development

  • 2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

    Bosch

    35%

    CAS

    25%

    ADVICS

    12%

    TRW

    7%

    Mando

    7%

    Others

    14% Bosch

    CAS

    ADVICS

    TRW

    Mando

    Others

    Brake Controls

    Technologies - Brake & Chassis

    52% 51% 47% 44% 41% 40% 39%

    42% 44% 48% 52% 55% 57% 58%

    6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    Traction Control

    Stability Control

    ABS

    54M 69M Global Brake Control Types

    Global Brake Control Suppliers

    2008

    15M+ Premium vs Commodity

    System Generations

    Alternative Propulsion – Vacuum?

    Active Braking/Safety

    Fault Tolerance/Reliability

    Low Cost Sensor/Actuator Integration

    Essential for X-by-Wire

    < 5 Years > < 5 Years >

    Shared Chassis/Braking/Safety Platforms

    2013 2018

    * Global: EU, NA, JK, CH

    E v o lu ti o n

    54M2008

    - Maturity

    - Growth

    - Introduc tion

    - Development

  • 2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

    JTEKT

    18%

    TRW

    12%

    Delphi

    10%

    Mando

    9% ZF Group

    8%

    Others

    43%

    JTEKT

    TRW

    Delphi

    Mando

    ZF Group

    Others

    49.3% 48.0% 45.6% 43.5% 43.0% 43.1% 42.7%

    32.4% 34.6% 38.2% 41.4% 42.7% 43.0% 43.5%

    13.3% 12.9% 12.1% 11.4% 10.8% 10.8% 10.9%

    5.0% 4.5% 4.1% 3.7% 3.5% 3.1% 3.0%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    Manual

    EHPS

    EPS

    Hydraulic

    Steering Gears

    Technologies - Brake & Chassis

    Global Steering Gear Types

    Global EPS/EHPS Steering Gear Suppliers

    2008 < 5 Years > < 5 Years >

    Steer-by-Wire

    2013 2018

    E v o lu ti o n

    33M * Global: EU, NA, JK, CH2008

    - Maturity

    - Growth

    - Introduc tion

    - Development

    Semi-Mature Technology

    Limitations on Motor & Sensor Tech

    Fuel Economy Reduction of Parasitic Losses Trend

    Automated Parking Braking, Steering and Suspension

    JVs, Partnerships and Acquisitions

    Not X-by-Wire

  • 2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

    Dampers

    Technologies - Brake & Chassis

    Global Active Suspension Market

    Global Damper Suppliers

    2008 < 5 Years > < 5 Years >

    Active Suspension

    2013 2018

    E v o lu ti o n

    * Global: EU, NA, JK, CH 2008

    7.66 9.92

    12.36 14.10 13.89 14.22

    15.66 3.83

    4.33

    4.38

    4.43 4.51 4.59 4.55

    1.75

    1.67

    1.63

    1.65 1.87 2.11 2.11

    0.56

    0.77

    1.19

    1.37 1.45 1.52

    1.56

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201