Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical...

32
Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive Electronic/Electrical Markets Antonio Ferreira Senior Manager, European Supply Chain and Technology Forecasts © Daimler

Transcript of Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical...

Page 1: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008

Wednesday 7th May 2008

Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive Electronic/Electrical Markets

Antonio Ferreira Senior Manager, European Supply Chain and Technology Forecasts

© Daimler

Page 2: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

Introduction

Trends

Technologies

Conclusion

Presentation

Outline

© Volvo

Page 3: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

Established in 1991Headquarters in DetroitPrivately Held120 Employees Worldwide11 Global Offices4 European Offices100% Automotive

CSM Overview

CSM Introduction

Page 4: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

Global Coverage

CSM Introduction

Page 5: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

SCT Introduction

16 Vehicle Systems Globally

Page 6: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

SCT Introduction

64 Scheduled Components/Global Markets

Page 7: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

Introduction

Trends

Technologies

Conclusion

Presentation

Outline

© Volvo

Page 8: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

1. Fuel Economy2. Low-Cost Vehicles3. BRIC Markets4. Low-Cost Sourcing5. Active & Passive Safety6. Infotainment7. Raw Materials Demand/Cost8. Recyclability9. X-by-Wire10. Car Networking Platforms11. Weight Savings12. Content Increase13. Part Commonization14. Interior & Exterior Lighting15. Nano Technologies

Etc...

Top Trends

Trends

2008 2013 2018

< 5 Years > < 5 Years >

Page 9: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

Global Light Vehicle Sales

6.24.4

5.67.9

5.3

2.0

16.918.6

3.6

3.9

1.6

1.2

1.0

2.5

0

5

10

15

20

25N America

W Europe

Japan/Korea

S America

C/E Europe

Greater China

South Asia

ME/Africa

Millions

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

2008-14 Growth

2008

2008-14 CAGR% (R-axis)

0%

100%

76% Developing Markets

S Asia 25%

Greater China

27%

C/E Europe 11%

N America 17%

S America 8%

W Europe 7%

Contribution To Growth

2008 - 2014Middle

East/Africa 3%

Trends

Page 10: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

0

10

20

30

40

50

Millions N America

W Europe

Japan/Korea

0

10

20

30

40

501997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Millions S Asia

Greater China

C/E Europe

S America

M East/Africa

43.345.4 45.0

48.3

9.010.5

25.7

39.1

Developed Market 2008-2014 Growth Rate 1.2%

5256

71

87

Global Light Vehicle Production

Developing Market 2008-2014 Growth Rate 6.2%

Global 2008-2014 Growth Rate 3.6%

Trends

Page 11: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

Global Low-Cost Light Vehicle Production

Trends

2014

20041997

2008

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Output in Millions

South

Asia

South

America

Japan Korea

Mid-East/Africa

Greater China

Europe

4.2M

0.4M

Page 12: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

PEST Factors

Constant Improvement

Content & Complexity Increase

Network Platforms

Energy & Power

Evolution NOT Revolution

Present Electronic Trends

Trends

© Dow

Page 13: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

Introduction

Trends

Technologies

Conclusion

Presentation

Outline

© Volvo

Page 14: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

Brake & Chassis:• Brake Assembly• Brake Controls• Steering Gear • Damper

Driver Support:• Keyless/Passive Entry• Tire Pressure Monitoring• Adaptive Cruise Control

Electrical:• Junction Box• Wire Harness• Engine ECU

Lighting:• Forward Lighting

Infotainment• Navigation System

Engine:• Hybrid Systems

Safety:• Airbag Module

• Occupant Classification

Technologies

Systems & Components

Page 15: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

Brake Assembly

Technologies – Brake & Chassis

48% 47% 45% 42%36% 32% 29%

36%29% 30% 31%

34%33%

33%

14%21% 20% 20% 22%

19%16%

0% 0% 2% 4% 5%13%

19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

TBD

Brembo

Aisin

Bosch

CAS

TRW

EU Electric Parking Brake Suppliers6.9M 10.8M3.9M+

TRW

48%

CAS

37%

Bosch

14%

Aisin

1%

TRW

CAS

Bosch

Aisin

2008

EU Electric Parking Brake Suppliers

Cable vs Motor

Fault Tolerance/ReliabilityBack-up systems

True vs False Brake-by-Wire

Braking, Steering and Suspension

JVs, Partnerships and Acquisitions

< 5 Years > < 5 Years >

Braking-by-Wire

2013 2018

Evolution

6.9M2008

- Maturity

- Growth

- Introduc tion

- Development

Page 16: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

Bosch

35%

CAS

25%

ADVICS

12%

TRW

7%

Mando

7%

Others

14%Bosch

CAS

ADVICS

TRW

Mando

Others

Brake Controls

Technologies - Brake & Chassis

52% 51% 47% 44% 41% 40% 39%

42% 44% 48% 52% 55% 57% 58%

6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Traction Control

Stability Control

ABS

54M 69MGlobal Brake Control Types

Global Brake Control Suppliers

2008

15M+ Premium vs Commodity

System Generations

Alternative Propulsion – Vacuum?

Active Braking/Safety

Fault Tolerance/Reliability

Low Cost Sensor/Actuator Integration

Essential for X-by-Wire

< 5 Years > < 5 Years >

Shared Chassis/Braking/Safety Platforms

2013 2018

* Global: EU, NA, JK, CH

Evolution

54M2008

- Maturity

- Growth

- Introduc tion

- Development

Page 17: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

JTEKT

18%

TRW

12%

Delphi

10%

Mando

9%ZF Group

8%

Others

43%

JTEKT

TRW

Delphi

Mando

ZF Group

Others

49.3% 48.0% 45.6% 43.5% 43.0% 43.1% 42.7%

32.4% 34.6% 38.2% 41.4% 42.7% 43.0% 43.5%

13.3% 12.9% 12.1% 11.4% 10.8% 10.8% 10.9%5.0% 4.5% 4.1% 3.7% 3.5% 3.1% 3.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Manual

EHPS

EPS

Hydraulic

Steering Gears

Technologies - Brake & Chassis

Global Steering Gear Types

Global EPS/EHPS Steering Gear Suppliers

2008< 5 Years > < 5 Years >

Steer-by-Wire

2013 2018

Evolution

33M * Global: EU, NA, JK, CH2008

- Maturity

- Growth

- Introduc tion

- Development

Semi-Mature Technology

Limitations on Motor & Sensor Tech

Fuel EconomyReduction of Parasitic Losses Trend

Automated ParkingBraking, Steering and Suspension

JVs, Partnerships and Acquisitions

Not X-by-Wire

Page 18: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

Dampers

Technologies - Brake & Chassis

Global Active Suspension Market

Global Damper Suppliers

2008< 5 Years > < 5 Years >

Active Suspension

2013 2018

Evolution

* Global: EU, NA, JK, CH2008

7.669.92

12.3614.10 13.89 14.22

15.663.83

4.33

4.38

4.43 4.51 4.594.55

1.75

1.67

1.63

1.65 1.87 2.112.11

0.56

0.77

1.19

1.37 1.45 1.521.56

0

5

10

15

20

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Millions CH

NA

J/K

EU

13.8M

23.9M

10.1M+6%

9%

KYB

21%

ZF Group

20%

Tenneco

14%

ThyssenK

rupp

5%

Showa

5%

Others

35%

KYB

ZF Group

Tenneco

ThyssenKrupp

Showa

Others

240M

- Maturity

- Growth

- Introduc tion

- Development

Optional Market

Price Limits Market Potential50% Price Reduction

Premium vs Commodity

Braking, Steering and SuspensionJVs, Partnerships and Acquisitions

Page 19: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

Keyless/Passive Entry

Technologies - Driver Support

Global Keyless/Passive Entry Type

Global Keyless/Passive Control Suppliers

2008< 5 Years > < 5 Years >

Keyless/Passive Entry

2013 2018

* Global: EU, NA, JK, CH

Evolution

52M2008

44.4 45.5 46.9 48.2 49.2 48.5 48.2

7.1 8.5 9.711.3 12.6 14.2 15.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Millions

Passive Entry

Passive Entry/Go

Conventional

51.7M

64M12.3M+87%

90%

Omron

14%

CAS

13%

Valeo

10%

Hella

8%Denso

7%

Others

48%

Omron

CAS

Valeo

Hella

Denso

Others- Maturity

- Growth

- Introduc tion

- Development

Mature Technology

Over-Complexed FunctionalityPlatform Sharing

Luxury Driven

Personalization Upon EntryAll-in-One Key with Functions & Info

Page 20: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

Schrader

42%

CAS

24%

Pacific

Industrial

12%

EnTire

9%

BorgWarner

7% Others

6%

Schrader

CAS

Pacific Industrial

EnTire

BorgWarner

Others

15.7 16.4 17.118.5 19.4 19.7 19.8

0.80.7 0.6

0.60.6 0.8 1.0

0

5

10

15

20

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Millions

Indirect

Direct

Tire Pressure Monitoring

Technologies - Driver Support

Global TPMS Type (no J/K)

Global TPMS Suppliers (no J/K)

2008< 5 Years > < 5 Years >

Tire Pressure Monitoring

2013 2018

* Global: EU, NA, CH

Evolution

16.4M2008

16.4M

20.9M4.5M+

- Maturity

- Growth

- Introduc tion

- Development

Direct vs Indirect (or Hybrid)

Standard for Vehicles Sold in NA

Initially Safety-Driven TechnologyNow also Fuel Economy (Euro V)

Extra Production Ready & Available

Driver Information (Visual & Audio)

Page 21: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

0

1

1

2

2

3

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Millions

Adaptive

Cruise

Control

Adaptive Cruise Control

Technologies - Driver Support

Global Adaptive Cruise Control Market

Global Adaptive Cruise Control Suppliers

2008< 5 Years > < 5 Years >

Smart Car

2013 2018

* Global: EU, NA, JK, CH

Evolution

0.9M2008

0.9M

2.2M

1.3M+

1.5%

3%

CAS

18%

Denso

16%

Bosch

12%Honda

elesys

10%Hitachi

4%

Others

40%

CAS

Denso

Bosch

Honda elesys

Hitachi

Others- Maturity

- Growth

- Introduc tion

- Development

Premium Technology

Awareness = Forward vs SideAdvanced Detection Systems

Integration with other SystemsLighting, Powertrain, Brake, Chassis...

Smart Car

Page 22: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

CAS

15.52%

Yazaki

14.88%

Delphi

14.12%Hella

12.55%

Sumitomo

Electric

12.15%

Others

30.79%

CAS

Yazaki

Delphi

Hella

Sumitomo Electric

Others

19.52 20.10 20.99 22.61 24.20 25.03 25.34

15.61 15.63 15.4215.57

15.10 14.87 15.39

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Millions Conventional

Smart

Junction Boxes

Technologies - Electrical

Junction Box Market (NA, EU)

Junction Box Suppliers (NA, EU)

2008< 5 Years > < 5 Years >

Smart Junction Boxes

2013 2018

Evolution

35.1M2008

56%

68%

44%

32%

- Maturity

- Growth

- Introduc tion

- Development

Smart Junction Boxes

Merges Controls & FunctionsReduction of Controllers and Wiring

Cost, Size, & Weight Savings

Extra Wiring vs Local Control Units

Page 23: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

Yazaki

22%

Delphi

19%

Sumitom

o

14%

Lear

5%

Valeo

5%

Others

35%

Yazaki

Delphi

Sumitomo

Lear

Valeo

Others

Wire Harness

Technologies - Electrical

Global Wire Harness Market Value

Global Wire Harness Suppliers

2008< 5 Years > < 5 Years >

Wire Harness

2013 2018

Evolution

194M2008

$7.72 $8.12 $8.47 $8.82 $9.05 $9.16 $9.35

$6.68 $7.01 $7.30 $7.60 $7.81 $7.91 $8.07

$4.78$5.01

$5.21$5.43 $5.58 $5.66 $5.76

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Billions

Body

Engine

IP

$19.2B

$23.2B

$4B+

* Global: EU, NA, JK, CH, S AM, S AS

- Maturity

- Growth

- Introduc tion

- Development

Manufacturing not AutomatedLabour Intensive/Low-Cost Production

Electrical Distribution Systems (EDS)

Content IncreaseExtra Wiring vs Local Control Units

Wireless & Fiber OpticsStandards & Security

Page 24: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

56.68 59.16 61.41 64.24 66.31 67.47 68.62

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Millions

ECUs

Engine ECU

Technologies - Electrical

Global Engine ECU Market

Global Engine ECU Suppliers

2008< 5 Years > < 5 Years >

ECUs

2013 2018

Evolution

56.7M2008* Global: EU, NA, JK, CH

Bosch

18%

Denso

15%

Delphi

11%CAS

10%

Hitachi

6%

Others

40%

Bosch

Denso

Delphi

CAS

Hitachi

Others- Maturity

- Growth

- Introduc tion

- Development

50+ ECUs Common

20% Transmission ECUs now Separate

High Requirements vs Cost Effective

Improved Testing & Simulation

Extra Wiring vs Local Control Units

Agreement of StandardsOpen standard for Hardware/Software

Page 25: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

Koito

14%

Automotive

Lighting

12%

Valeo

12%

Hella

11%

Stanley

11%

Others

40%

Koito

Automotive Lighting

Valeo

Hella

Stanley

Others

Forward Lighting

Technologies - Lighting

Forward Lighting Adaptive Type

Global Forward Lighting Suppliers

2008< 5 Years > < 5 Years >

Forward Lighting

2013 2018

Evolution

60M2008* Global: EU, NA, JK, CH

55.5 57.7 59.4 60.4 59.5 58.0 57.2

4.34.6 5.1 7.2 9.9 12.3 14.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Millions

Adaptive

Non-Adaptive

7%

20%

- Maturity

- Growth

- Introduc tion

- Development

Adaptive to Grow and Develop

Automatic Daytime Lamps (DRL)

Greater adoption of Xenon & LEDStyling

Legislations Impact Technologies

Night VisionIntegration with other Systems

GPS

Page 26: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

Aisin AW

16%

Denso

13%

Harman/B

ecker

10%

CAS

9%Blaupunkt

7%

Others

45%

Aisin AW

Denso

Harman/Becker

CAS

Blaupunkt

Others

1.08 1.06 1.00 0.97 1.02 1.03 1.09

3.21 3.30 3.44 3.66 3.81 3.87 4.10

2.252.94

3.574.23

4.68 4.965.34

0.090.11

0.15

0.240.42

0.580.75

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Millions SD Card

HDD

DVD

CD5.986.82

7.618.44 8.95 9.17 9.71

0.640.59

0.55

0.650.98

1.271.57

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Millions

TBT

FCM

Navigation

Technologies - Infotainment

Global OE Navigation Display Type

Global OE Navigation Suppliers

2008< 5 Years > < 5 Years >

Telematics

2013 2018

Evolution

6.6M2008* Global: EU, NA, JK, CH

Global OE Navigation Memory Type

11%

16%

- Maturity

- Growth

- Introduc tion

- Development

Page 27: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

Toyota

35%

Bosch

30%

Alcoa

17%

Honda

6%

Aisin

6%

Others

6%

Toyota

Bosch

Alcoa

Honda

Aisin

Others

Hybrids

Technologies - Engine

Global Hybrids Type

Global Hybrid System Suppliers

2008< 5 Years > < 5 Years >

Alternative Propulsion Systems

2013 2018

Evolution

0.8M2008

0.02 0.06 0.23 0.35 0.37 0.38 0.400.59 0.721.42

1.73 2.01 2.09 2.221.22

1.60

2.66

3.31

3.884.33

4.55

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Millions

Micro

Mild

Full0.8M

7.2M

- Maturity

- Growth

- Introduc tion

- Development

120g CO2 per km in 2012 Green TrendLimited Market & Benefits

Alternative PropulsionAlternative Fuels Reductions & EfficienciesCost Effectiveness

Powertrain & Driveline42V+

Effect on other Systems

* Global: EU, NA, JK, CH

Page 28: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

Autoliv

37%

TRW

19%

Takata

14%

Toyoda

Gosei

12%

Delphi

3%

Others

15%

Autoliv

TRW

Takata

Toyoda Gosei

Delphi

Others

Airbag Module

Technologies - Safety

Global Airbag Module Positions

Global Airbag Module Suppliers

2008< 5 Years > < 5 Years >

Passive Safety

2013 2018

Evolution

236M2008* Global: EU, NA, JK, CH

- Maturity

- Growth

- Introduc tion

- Development

60.8 68.4 74.5 81.8 87.2 90.0 91.8

60.067.6 73.7

79.3 83.4 85.3 88.055.4

57.860.1

63.0 65.0 66.0 67.053.2

55.958.3

61.263.4 64.5 65.6

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Millions Passenger

Driver

Side

Seat

229M

312M83M+

Passive Safety is a Mature MarketContent Increase is now LimitedSystem Improvement

NA Legislation DrivenEU/JK Consumer Driven

Well Marketed Consumer TrendCommodity

Pedestrian Safety

Page 29: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

Aisin

27%

Delphi

24%TRW

9%

Elesys

6%

Bosch

6%

Others

28%Aisin

Delphi

TRW

Elesys

Bosch

Others

Occupant Classification

Technologies - Safety

Global Occupant Classification Types

Global Occupant Classification System Suppliers

2008< 5 Years > < 5 Years >

Passive Safety

2013 2018

Evolution

22M2008* Global: EU, NA, JK

- Maturity

- Growth

- Introduc tion

- Development

12.56 12.07 12.13 12.97 14.27 14.96 16.53

7.46 6.78 6.43 5.80 5.20 5.536.020.57 1.85 2.00 2.21 2.47

2.802.82

0.52 0.48 0.55 0.63 0.700.75

0.80

0.23 0.23 0.310.32

0.400.59

0.80

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Millions

PODS

Capacitive

Pattern

LRD

Matt

Weight

29M

22M

7M+

NA Mandatory

Low Risk Deployment (cheaper)

Added Content Value to Passive

Future of OCS?

Page 30: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

Introduction

Trends

Technologies

Conclusion

Presentation

Outline

© Volvo

Page 31: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com

Automotive industry has mechanical mindset

Electronics dominated by suppliers in other industries

Dedicated low-cost vehicle platforms rewrite the rule book

Standards defined ASAP to continue content growth curve

Hard to impact established technologies/markets, but not impossible

Industry obstacles/fears/regulations create opportunities for outsiders

Cost effective reliable safety systems will be a challenge

Automotive suppliers have to embrace trends and fears

Influence consumers/markets with more than just technology

Maturity ends premium lifecycle and starts commodity lifecycle

Highlights

Conclusion

Page 32: Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive ... · Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008 Wednesday 7 th May 2008 Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive

Antonio Ferreira

Tel: +44 1932 349 661Email: [email protected]

© VW