Supply and Demand is Not Sustainable Dr. Susan Krumdieck Department of Mechanical Engineering Dr....
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Transcript of Supply and Demand is Not Sustainable Dr. Susan Krumdieck Department of Mechanical Engineering Dr....
Supply and Demand is Not Sustainable
Dr. Susan Krumdieck Department of Mechanical Engineering
Dr. Andre Dantas Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Tony Burton Energy Systems Engineer Cape Foulwind
What is this about?
Overview:
• Past
KaikuoraThe Role of Engineering
Supply and DemandContinuous GrowthIncreasing Demand
• Present
• Future
Sustainable Growth?Kyoto?Switch to Renewables?
Service and AvailabilityContinuityEnergy Architecture
Manapouri
Demand
Supply (without tax)
Supply (with tax)
C O ST
$
PRODUCTION QUANTITY
S’
SP’
P
QQ’
SUPPLY DEMANDPricePastEconomics
PastEngineering
DevelopmentInnovation
Advancement
Mt. Cook
We also know from the past:The Supply and Demand Model
most closely represents the “bloom and collapse”
cycle of bacteria and other single-cell biota
Problems of Unlimited Growth:
Food Forests Fisheries
Water War Waste
Peak Oil
Global Climate Change
Population
Mass Extinction
Whanganui River
Modern Economics
• Supply and Demand
• Sustainable Growth
• Triple Bottom Line Accounting
• Green Image Marketing
• Incentives / Carbon Tax
• Price Signals for Switch to Alternatives
• Sustainable Development
Modern Energy EngineeringEnergy is no longer “too cheap to meter”
The Environment is no longer “a free dumping ground”
Energy Resources
SupplyCostDemandEnd Use
Environment CostsHealth Costs
Catlins
Motion Sensors for LightsBuild Bike Paths
Energy AuditingLoad Management Ripple Control
Deregulation Market Pricing
Fund Research on Fuel CellsUpgrade Power Networks
Subsidies for Wind FarmsResearch into BioFuels
Sustainable Economy Goals
Environmental ImpactsEnergy Effic
iency
Renewable Energy
Green ProductsSustainable Development
Appropria
te T
echnology
Monowai
Stone JetSubstitute Renewable Energy and Green Products
into the fossil fuel system,
and you end up with…
Nelson
Moeraki
Farewell Spit
Lake Matheson
What will happen is what has always happened
Future: Engineering Change
• Correctly Pose the Problem
• Theory
• Method
• Analysis
• Engineering
Franz Joseph
Problem Definition
• Economics: Sustained Growth
• Ecology: Sustainable Environment
• Engineering: What ever you want
Fox Glacier
Engineering Problem Definition:
Stable energy and environmental resource architecture which provides well-being of civilization within the constraints of continuous resource availability
Able Tasman
TheoryRegional System Model
Reference Input Controls Physical
PlantActuators
FeedbackCatlins
Systems Model
West Coast
CONTINUITY MODEL
QUALITY
SERVICES
TECHNOLOGY
Appliances, Devices
Built Environment
IMPACTS Pollution, Erosion, Species, Natural Resource Extraction
Sustainable Primary Consumption and Impacts
ECONOMY INFRASTRUCTURE
Plant, Grid, Market Place, Roads, Buildings
Social, Economic and Energy Architecture
Culture Values Education Regulations
Interest Rates Inflation Income
Innovations Communication Systems Computation Capabilities System Control Strategies
SUPPLY
Energy, Resources
Model Structure
Environmental Structure
Actual Primary Consumption and Impacts
Availability
Performance
+
-
Well Being +
-
Individuals
Strategic Analysis Methodology
1. Define the system and performance metrics
2. Define objectives for well-being
3. Build socio-economic and cultural history
4. Develop a regional system model
5. Develop Performance-Objective design for reference energy architecture
6. Evaluate critical change factors
7. Develop scenarios for evolution Cape Foulwind
MethodMethod
“Achieve function and quality goals within the
constraints of resource availability”
Westport
Service and Availability Economy
ConsumersProducers
& Suppliers$
Free Market Relationship
Desired Services
Sustainable Availability
Sustainability Modelling
Information Flows
Natural ResourcesEnvironment Manapouri
Available Services
West Coast
Analysis and Modelling
• Real-Time Simulations
• Virtual Reality Experiential Interface
• Animation
Projects and New Technologies
Moeraki
• Modelling Environment
• Comparator computational systems for real-time analysis and communication to the community in a generic and relevant way
• Communication of sustainable built system possibilities to all sectors of society
• Built Environment
• Communications systems for access to availability information
• Feedback processing of environmental impact data, and real-time mitigation systems
Or we could keep trying to make Stone Jets to supply demandStone Jets to supply demand
H 2 Express
Biofuel Beauty
Wind and Solar Salvation
Nuclear Nonsense
Fusion Foolishness
H 2 Express
Thanks for your attention