Sunday 31 May 2020 To advertise contact: Tel: 44557 857 or email: adv@pen.com.qa

04 SUNDAY 31 MAY 2020CLASSIFIEDS

05SUNDAY 31 MAY 2020 CLASSIFIEDS

ARTECHSage Accounting, Peachtree, QuickBooks, Dynacom, DacEasy, Tally, POS, Bar Code, Fixed Assets Software’s.Tel: +974 44375654 E-mail: artech@ar-technology.net

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ADVERTISING OVERSEAS NEWSPAPER

ATTESTATION

CALIBRATION SERVICES

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BUSINESS SET-UP

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GENERATORS SERVICING

CLEANING AND MAINTENANCE

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MEDIA SERVICES

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WAREHOUSE FOR RENT

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USED CONTAINERS (Sales & Rentals)

02 SUNDAY 31 MAY 2020BUSINESS

Britain to launchbig stimuluspackage beforesummer: ReportREUTERS — LONDON

Britain’s government is planning to launch a big stimulus package before the summer with a focus on cre-ating jobs and infrastructure projects to help drag the economy out of the corona-virus crisis, the Financial Times reported, yesterday.

Finance minister Rishi Sunak (pictured) declined on Friday to say whether he would bring forward his next budget statement, due in the autumn, to spell out how he will tackle Britain’s surging debt.

But Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government was elected in December after promising to upgrade the country’s creaking infra-structure and the FT said this would form a central part of its recovery programme, along with the retraining of workers.

“We are trying to identify shovel-ready projects - we want to get a move on with this,” it quoted one minister as saying.

Sunak said on Friday that employers hammered by the coronavirus shutdown would

have to gradually start con-tributing to the government’s hugely expensive wage subsidy scheme, but only from August.

The government has been paying since March 80 percent of the wages of workers who are temporarily laid off, and who now total 8.4 million, to limit a surge in unemployment.

While that has been warmly welcomed by unions and business groups there are still fears that many jobs will go in sectors which will struggle to reopen, such as hospitality, retail and aviation.

EU to revamp steel-import controls as economy recoversBLOOMBERG

The European Union plans to revamp its steel-import restric-tions to guard against major market distortions as the bloc’s economy recovers from the effects of the pandemic.

The proposed changes apply to EU import curbs introduced two years ago to prevent a con-troversial 25 percent US levy on foreign steel from diverting global shipments to the European market and flooding it.

The European “safeguard” measures involve a 25 percent tariff on EU imports of 26 types of steel ranging from stainless hot-rolled and cold-rolled sheets to rebars and railway material when the shipments exceed a three-year average. The planned overhaul stops short of quota cuts demanded by European producers.

“It is fundamental that the gradual resumption of activity and return to normality take place in an orderly manner, in such a way that all participants in the EU steel market find their traditional place,” the Brussels-based European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, said in a notice published on Friday evening. The changes are due to take effect on July 1.

The coronavirus sent the European economy into a tailspin shortly after the commission in February began a routine review of the EU steel-import limits. Slumps in the region’s con-sumption and production of the metal sparked concerns about stockpiling in exporting countries such as China and a possible

surge in shipments to Europe as national lockdowns are eased.

“The proposed adjustments should deter any undue stock-piling behaviour in the very early phases of the recovery that could empty the market in an oppor-tunistic manner,” the com-mission said. “These opportun-istic practices not only seriously endanger the obligation to pre-serve traditional trade flows in terms of origins, but also risk unduly displacing domestic production.”

Some of the main planned changes to the EU’s management of the import limits, which are known as tariff-rate quotas, or TRQs include: Move to quarterly management of all country-spe-cific quotas.Replacement of a

global TRQ for hot-rolled flat products with the default system of combined country-specific quotas for the biggest traditional suppliers and residual quotas for the rest. Introduction of a global TRQ for stainless steel hot-rolled sheets and strips. Split of a TRQ for large welded tubes into two sub-TRQs -- one for tubes nor-mally used in large engineering projects and the second for product types not used in such projects.

Establishment for countries that have exhausted their spe-cific quotas of three regimes for accessing residual quotas (to replace the default scenario of access in the last quarter of a period): prohibition, limited and status quo.

A file photo of steel rolls stacked in an inventory of a steel factory in Germany.

Investments

in Singapore

exceed annual

target in 4 months

BLOOMBERG

Singapore secured S$13bn ($9.2bn) in investment commit-ments in the first four months of the year, exceeding earlier targets for the full year, even as the city-state tackled the COVID-19 pan-demic, Trade and Industry Min-ister Chan Chun Sing (pictured) said in a media briefing and Facebook post yesterday.

The amount exceeded initial targets of S$8bn to S$10bn for the whole year, said Chan, and came from sectors such as electronics and info-communications.

Singapore-based companies including Micron Technologies Inc, Lazada Group and Shopee are continuing to hire, Chan said, even as a slide in retail and tourism demand has led to job losses and an overall rise in unemployment.

The government will con-tinue with measures to support jobs and businesses through this period, he said, while the Straits Times cited him as saying a decision would be made next week on whether to hold the Sin-gapore Grand Prix motor race in September.

Germany reaches EU deal on €9bn Lufthansa bailoutBLOOMBERG

The German government worked out its differences with the European Commission over a €9bn ($9.9bn) bailout of Deutsche Lufthansa AG, clearing the way for the rescue of Europe’s biggest airline to move forward.

After intense talks, the com-mission and the German gov-ernment agreed that Lufthansa will reduce its presence at air-ports in Frankfurt and Munich by four aircraft each. The accord, which the airline’s management said it would accept, would give a toehold to new competitors hoping to challenge the dominant German carrier on its home turf.

The compromise settles a high-stakes showdown that played out over the past week, pitting the European Union’s most powerful member state against the regulator tasked with ensuring fairness in the bailout process. The economic damage of the coronavirus crisis has unleashed an unprecedented gusher of state aid, led by Ger-many’s €600bn ($666bn) effort to shore up its economy.

With Lufthansa’s future in the

balance, Germany on Monday offered the carrier a package of loans and equity investment to keep it aloft. But after the EU demanded it give up slots, the air-line’s supervisory board unex-pectedly held off on accepting this lifeline -- throwing the rescue plan into turmoil after weeks of talks. Ultimately, the EU pared back some of its demands.

“There will be worries for Lufthansa about other airlines moving in, but the slot rules would seem to limit the threat,” said John Strickland, director of JLS Consulting in London, who has held senior positions at British Airways and KLM.

The EU conditions kick in when airports become congested again, at which point Lufthansa will have to surrender as many as 24 takeoff-and-landing slots at Munich and the same at Frankfurt, enough for a com-petitor to base four planes at both airports, each making three daily round-trips. There are significant catches, however, that suggest the strongest potential benefici-aries, such as Ryanair Holdings Plc, a loud critic of the Lufthansa aid, won’t be able to fully take

advantage of the slots.For the first 18 months, for

example, the capacity is reserved for new competitors in Frankfurt and Munich. With the global airline industry in retreat, the likelihood of a fresh entrant may be limited.

The EU is comfortable with the deal, having overshot in its initial demands in anticipation of a compromise, according to a person familiar with the matter. It’s not certain the remedy will be taken up, but regulators didn’t have time to test the interest, the person said, asking not to be identified on a confidential matter. The commitments will “enable a viable entry or expansion of activities by other airlines at these airports to the benefit of consumers and effective competition,” the EU said in an emailed statement.

Talks with the EU over other aspects of the deal will continue, a spokeswoman for Germany’s economy ministry said.

The agreement would then require approval of Lufthansa’s supervisory board, followed by a formal signoff by the EU, which polices state aid to ensure one

country doesn’t give its com-panies an unfair advantage.

The bloc’s regulators will assess the German aid package “as a matter of priority,” the EU said yesterday.

Discount operators are the most likely to show interest in the new capacity, Strickland said. If the slots had become available before the coronavirus, Lufthansa “would have been concerned about long-haul rivals, but that’s really gone now with markets so weak.”

Of the two main European discounters, Dublin-based Ryanair already has slots at Frankfurt’s main airport. UK-based Easyjet Plc has a presence in Munich. At least initially, each would be unable to use the new capacity in the location where it’s already planted a flag.

Another growing low-cost carrier, Wizz Air Holdings Plc, recently pulled out of Frankfurt. In an interview, Chief Executive Officer Jozsef Varadi called the bailout “market distorting,” and said the slots don’t come close to balancing out the amount of aid Lufthansa is getting.

EM Asia is set for a gradual economic recovery The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak spread rapidly around the world. Gov-ernments have responded with containment and mitigation policies, including testing, iso-lation of infected patients and comprehensive social dis-tancing measures.

However, the spread of the outbreak affected the behaviour of both households and corpo-rates, causing a deep downturn. This analysis delves into the recent experiences of selected economies of East and Southeast Asia (EM Asia), including China, South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines and Vietnam.

Gross domestic product (GDP) data for Q1 2020 in EM Asia came out weak, ranging from 3.8 percent to -6.8 percent year-on-year (y-o-y) from 1 percent to 7 percent y-o-y in the previous quarter. The difference in performance is explained by both the mag-nitude of the epidemic spread

and the timing of the virus expansion. Infections in China, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore (initial wave) and Vietnam happened relatively early, whereas sig-nificant outbreaks took only place weeks later in Indonesia

and the Philippines. Moreover, South Korea and Vietnam were able to identify root causes of virus spread early on and therefore experienced less drastic containment policies (massive testing, isolation of infected patients and only regionally targeted compre-hensive social distancing). The magnitude of the initial spread required China and Thailand to launch more comprehensive and broad mitigation policies, including large-scale, strict social distancing measures.

There is still uncertainty

about the impact of COVID-19 on GDP in Q2, but the “opening up” of the EM Asian economies will provide insights of the speed of recovery. This is particularly obvious in countries that are comfortably on the other side of the peak with regards to new infections (China, South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia), potentially setting up for a quick rebound. But optimism should be measured.

Moving away from more strict forms of social distancing bears the risk of a “second wave” of infections which would require the return of strong mitigation policies. The case of Singapore provides an important cautionary tale. After a success in initially controlling the epidemic and in providing the required health infra-structure, the country faced a significant second wave of cases after a period of normalization.

All in all, we believe that four reasons explain why the

economic recovery of EM Asia will be rather gradual and slow over the second half of the year.

First, several restrictions towards public gatherings, work, social distancing, traffic and other activities are expected to remain partially in place. Therefore, a full return to pre- COVID-19 nor-mality seems unlikely. This will naturally limit output capacity, placing a cap on the recovery over the next few months.

Second, irrespectively of government mandated measures, individuals and private institutions are likely to become more risk averse when it comes to both financial and health issues. As a result, their marginal propensity to save rather than to spend or invest should increase, dampening consumption and investment.

Third, policy support to boost growth will take time to permeate through the economy. This is valid for the monetary policy accommo-dation as well as for the more

expansive fiscal stance. While local central banks have lowered rates by a minimum of 50 to up to 125 basis points and fiscal authorities launched spending packages ranging from 2 percent to 17 percent of their respective GDP, it will most likely take several months for the stimulus to generate a significant pick up in con-sumption and investment.

Fourth, not all countries have a robust healthcare infra-structure in place to ramp up capacity and put together the necessary capabilities for

containing potential new waves of virus spread. Crucial parts of the progress made by countries such as China, Korea, Vietnam and initially Singapore were related to testing and tracing capabilities. Without a robust containment strategy, countries would not be able to maintain a flat curve of new cases for long.

In brief, existing challenges will likely place a cap on the ongoing economic recovery of EM Asia. Expected rebounds are set to be rather gradual and will, vary markedly from country to country.

(%, year on year)Real Gross Domestic Product

QNB ECONOMIC COMMENTARY