Summer/Fall 2010 PFR Chairman's Report

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Have you ever looked back on the opportunities you’ve had in your life and been satisfied that you made the most of some, yet wonder why you let others slip by? We all ask ourselves at some time if we’ve made the right decisions. Of these times, the ones I regret the most are when I chose not to do something, when I let caution keep me from taking full advantage of opportunities presented to me, when hesitation kept me from reaching out for my dreams. Have you ever felt this way? Right now, many people are faced with an unusually good opportunity to buy a new home. They are treading cautiously, carefully considering the balance between present risk and potential reward. I understand why — we are receiving mixed signals about the economy and real estate market.Technically, the recession is over, but it doesn’t quite feel like it.We knew the recovery would be long and choppy, but we’re impatient because it seems like the economy has hit an invisible wall. So what do we do? A Message from Lawrence F. Flick, IV, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Prudential Fox & Roach, REALTORS ® and The Trident Group 1 The Chairman’s Report SUMMER/FALL 2010 Risk versus Reward First, let’s look at the facts. Our economy is moving, albeit slowly, in the right direction: Employment growth Private sector employment growth Personal income Wages and salaries Local real estate sales Six out of last nine months Past seven consecutive months Nine consecutive months Seven of the last nine months Twelve months of improvement Source: Naroff Economic Advisors, August 2010 Many people are treading cautiously, carefully considering the balance between present risk and potential reward.

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Short-term risk versus long-term reward - Greater Philadelphia Housing Market - Summer/Fall 2010 Chairman's Report (c) Prudential Fox and Roach, REALTORS®

Transcript of Summer/Fall 2010 PFR Chairman's Report

Page 1: Summer/Fall 2010 PFR Chairman's Report

Have you ever looked back on the opportunities you’vehad in your life and been satisfied that you made themost of some, yet wonder why you let others slip by?We all ask ourselves at some time if we’ve made theright decisions. Of these times, the ones I regret themost are when I chose not to do something, when Ilet caution keep me from taking full advantage ofopportunities presented to me, when hesitation keptme from reaching out for my dreams. Have you everfelt this way?

Right now, many people are faced with an unusuallygood opportunity to buy a new home. They are treadingcautiously, carefully considering the balance betweenpresent risk and potential reward. I understand why —we are receiving mixed signals about the economy andreal estate market. Technically, the recession is over, butit doesn’t quite feel like it. We knew the recovery wouldbe long and choppy, but we’re impatient because itseems like the economy has hit an invisible wall. Sowhat do we do?

A Message from Lawrence F. Flick, IV, Chairman and Chief Executive OfficerPrudential Fox & Roach, REALTORS®and The Trident Group

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The Chairman’s Report

SUMMER/FALL 2010

Risk versusReward

First, let’s look at the facts. Our economy is moving, albeit slowly, in the right direction:

Employment growth

Private sector employment growth

Personal income

Wages and salaries

Local real estate sales

Six out of last nine months

Past seven consecutive months

Nine consecutive months

Seven of the last nine months

Twelve months of improvement

Source: Naroff Economic Advisors, August 2010

Many people are treadingcautiously, carefully

considering the balance betweenpresent risk and potential reward.

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It’s been a year since real estate sales in our area hitbottom. In that time, sales grew each month until theyspiked to April 2010’s peak. Activity then decreased inJune and July because many buyers accelerated theirplans to take advantage of the federal tax creditbefore its April 30, 2010 deadline. The chartbelow illustrates unit sales in Prudential Fox &Roach/Trident’s market area.

Source: Trend MLS

These are all positive signs in both the economy andreal estate market, yet we seem to be fighting headwindsthat keep us from feeling confident in the recovery. Asconsumers, we are saving more and spending less.Businesses are cautious resulting in slow job growth.Events in Greece and other parts of Europe have hadthe positive effect of bringing interest rates back downto historic lows, but have negatively affected our stockmarket. Economic signals are not as clear as we wouldlike them to be, and as a result, we tend to hesitatewhen planning for the future.

SShhoorrtt--tteerrmm rriisskk vveerrssuuss lloonngg--tteerrmm rreewwaarrddOur current market presents a paradox. It’s a great timeto buy a home, yet the fear of taking a risk can paralyzeconsumers. If you’ve been thinking about making amove, I urge you to consider that despite lack ofconfidence about the short-term economic recovery, thebest time to buy a house is now. Here’s why:

• Interest rates are at record lows• The selection of houses for sale is great • Prices in our area have stabilized

These favorable conditions will not last. I believe ourreal estate market will bump along for another fewmonths then grow stronger in 2011 and 2012. Whenthe pace of the recovery accelerates, prices will begin to rise and interest rates will go up. And here is wherethe long-term reward comes in — our local real estatehas proven to be an excellent investment. Over the past ten years average house values in our region haveincreased significantly:

Source: Naroff Economic Advisors, August 2010

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Atlantic City . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71%

Edison-New Brunswick . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66%

Ocean City, NJ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85%

Philadelphia PSMA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91%

Trenton-Ewing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61%

Wilmington. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59%

Average 10 Year Price Appreciation

Prudential Fox & Roach Realtors®

Marketplace Pending Units Rolling 12 Months

The best investmentsare made before they become obvious to everyone but after the bottom begins to curve upward. That time is now.

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Those who bought at the top of the market in 2005 and 2006 may not yet see an increase in value, but over the long-term their investment will grow. Soon the market will return to a more normal rate of salesand appreciation.

The best investments are made before they becomeobvious to everyone but after the bottom begins tocurve upward. That time is now.

There is a practical side to homeownership — buildingequity, taking advantage of income tax deductions, andbenefiting from long-termappreciation. But there is anemotional side as well. We choosehomeownership because we want tohave control of our future. Eachproperty is unique, and we are drawnto the one we feel we were meant tohave. We are willing to take acalculated risk to attain long-termsecurity, and we benefit from meeting our current needs, as well!

WWhheenn yyoouu llooookk bbaacckk,, wwhhaatt wwiillll yyoouu ssaayy??

When thinking about your future, it’s important tocarefully consider the balance between risk and reward.My favorite quote is by Mark Twain — “Twenty yearsfrom now you will be more disappointed by the thingsyou didn’t do than by the ones you did do. So throw offthe bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch thetrade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.”

Whether it is ten or twenty years from now, will you bedisappointed in the things you didn’t do? Or will youcatch the winds of opportunity and live your dreams?My wish for you is that it be the latter.

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Lawrence F. Flick, IVChairman and Chief Executive OfficerPrudential Fox & Roach, Realtors® and The Trident Group

Prudential Real Estate just compiled results of anonline survey of homeowners and those who statedthey intended to buy a home within two years. It foundthat consumers realize that the complexity of today’smarket requires greater sophistication:

• 69% agree that buying a home is a much biggerdecision than it used to be• 76% agree that buying or selling a home is morecomplicated than in the past• 89% agree that previously “any home used to sell”but that marketing a home today must be muchmore sophisticated

Based on these answers, it’s no surprise to see that:• 93% agree that finding an agent and real estatefirm they can trust is more important than ever

Relationships built on trust take time to develop. Manyconsumers strive to do their homework through online

research, keeping up on the latest news. Unfortunatelynot all information we see online is reliable, which can adversely affect decision making of potentialbuyers and sellers. That’s why it is crucial to select a professional Realtor® with the knowledge, experience and creativity to guide you through theprocess. When buying, it’s important to tap currentopportunity. When selling, it’s important to understandthat we are in a value-driven market. From a strategicstandpoint, sellers who ensure their house is in greatcondition, use accurate pricing, and employ stagingtechniques will experience success. Prudential Fox &Roach can assist you in all these vital areas. We arethe market leader with a history of trust and integritydating back to 1886. The expertise of ourprofessionals is unmatched. And the consultants ofThe Trident Group will make the process easy andconvenient while helping you settle on time, with great service and value.

What do consumers want in a Realtor®?

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An Independently Owned and Operated Member of the Prudential Real Estate Affiliates, Inc.

AN INDEPENDENT VIEW

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Joel L. Naroff, Ph.D. is thePresident and founder ofNaroff Economic Advisors.He is a consultant toPrudential Fox & Roach,Realtors® and The TridentGroup. A nationallyrecognized economicforecasting expert, Joel wasawarded the Lawrence Klein

Award for Blue Chip forecasting excellence and was theBloomberg Business News top economic forecaster in2008. In 2007, he received the National Association ofBusiness Economists Outlook Award and was named thetop economic forecaster by MSNBC in 2006.

The economy has been growing for one year nowand private sector employment gains have been posted

every month during 2010. Yet households areconcerned and consumer confidence is near recessionlevels. The reason for this disconnect is the pace ofjob increases, which has been less than stellar. Thathas left many feeling uncertain about their future,restrained spending and helped create the sluggishrecovery. However, there is little reason to believe thatwe will fall back into a double-dip recession. Theexpansion may be less than hoped for, but it is likelyto continue.

There is a positive aspect to the softer growth: interestrates remain at historically low levels. Firms have littlepricing power so inflation is modest. Also, the FederalReserve has pledged to keep rates down to encouragegrowth. We have also seen that home prices havebottomed in most places and are beginning to riseagain. The combination of low cost mortgages anda growing belief that you can buy a home without itlosing value should lead to steady improvement inthe housing market.