A

Summary

The topic of this master thesis is: The impact of producing

biofuels from food crops on Arab food security problem (An

econometric study).

This master thesis is divided into three parts. The first and the

second part are divided into three chapters, while the last part is

divided into four chapters.

The first part is an overview about biofuels as a source of

energy. Since, the first chapter is an overview about biofuels. It

illustrates different definitions of biofuels and the relationship

between biofuels and agriculture. The chapters and the thesis

concentrate on two main types of biofuels, bioethanol and

biodiesel and their different feedstocks that are used in the

production process.

In the second chapter, we explain the economics of producing

biofuels including costs of production and the factors that affect

these costs. In addition, we illustrate the global trade of bioethanol

and biodiesel and the global consumption too. Another addition is

the trade barriers which are affecting the expansion of this

industry.

In chapter three, we concentrated on conducting a comparison

between biofuels and fossil fuels. However, it ended by deducing

that each type of energy has its own advantages and

disadvantages. But, in conclusion, biofuels still a source of energy

that can’t replace the dependence on fossil fuels.

Part two is considered a move to the global trends and impacts

of the expansion of this industry. In chapter one, we mentioned

two main experiences in the field of biofuels. The first example

B

was the USA as the main producer of bioethanol from maize, and

the second example was the EU as the world’s main producer of

biodiesel. Different sides have been illustrated in these two

examples such as the production of biofuels in each experience,

the imports and exports in addition to biofuels trade policy in each

country.

Moving to chapter two, where we can find the different

impacts of biofuels worldwide. So many impacts have been

mentioned such as the impact on food prices and international

food aids, the environmental impacts such as deforestation, in

addition to the impact on food and water competition. Some

benefits of biofuels were mentioned in the economic effects of

biofuels’ production.

The future of biofuels’ industry was discussed in chapter three

of this part. And the projections were focusing on different

generations of biofuels and the prospects of them in the future.

Part three, however, is considered the most important part,

since it concentrates on Arab countries and their relation to

biofuels. Chapter one, was about providing an overview of the

characteristics of the agricultural sector in Arab countries. This

chapter showed that the sector is suffering from many problems

including water problems, and problems related to workers in this

sector, in addition to investments shortages.

However, chapter two mainly focuses on the food security

problem in the region. It proved the problem by using some

indicators such as the food SSR and the trade deficit indicator.

This problem, however, was a result of the different problems that

Arab countries suffer from in their agricultural sector.

C

Some Arab countries have experiences in producing biofuels,

this can be noticed in chapter three, a note on the industry in some

countries is mentioned, and some of them are Egypt, Iraq, Syria

and Jordan.

The research was ended by chapter four in this part. The

chapter intended to measure the impact of producing biofuels on

Arab food security problem. The impact was divided between the

impact of the local production of biofuels and the impact of the

international production of biofuels. The local impact wasn’t

significant since Arab countries don’t use food stuffs to produce

biofuels. But the most important impact was the international

impact, which was measured through two main models. Model

one was measuring the impact of the international production of

ethanol on the imports’ global prices of food cereals.

Then in model two it measured the impact of the increase in

the international prices of cereals’ imports on Arab food per capita

of cereals. Finally, a scenario was made to predict the impact of

the continuous production of ethanol on Arab food per capita in

2017.

In conclusion, the study reached many results; the most

important one was that biofuels’ international production may

result in decreasing Arab food per capita of cereals by 300 gram

each year. And with the continuous production worldwide the

impact may become worse. Therefore, the researcher suggested

improving and developing the global use of second generation

biofuels since, they don’t rely on food as feedstocks. In addition,

the production of biofuels must be constrained by international

laws that regulate their production, and help in decreasing their

negative impacts on global food prices.

D

Abstract

Researcher Name: Sarah Hassan Mohammed Hassan Serag

Thesis title: “The impact of producing biofuels from food crops on

Arab food security problem” “An econometric study”.

A master thesis – Ain Shams University – Faculty of Commerce,

Economics Department, 2011

The study aims at measuring the impact of producing biofuels

worldwide on Arab food security problem. In part one; the

researcher gave an overview about biofuels and their economics of

production, in addition to conducting a comparison between

biofuels and fossil fuels. Part two, was concentrating on the global

production of biofuels’ industry mentioning the USA and the EU

as major producers, and the different impacts of biofuels’

production and the future of this new industry. Ending with part

three, this was concentrating on Arab countries and their problems

in the agriculture sector that were the main reasons behind the

food security problem. Also some Arab experiences in producing

biofuels were mentioned preparing to measure the impact of the

global and the local production of biofuels on Arab food security

problem.

The researcher used the theoretical and the analytical

methodologies, in addition to the econometric methodology in

measuring the mentioned impact.