SUICIDE ATTACKS BY ISLAMIC EXTREMISTS Using Intelligence for Prevention Dr. David L. Carter Michigan...

SUICIDE ATTACKS BY ISLAMIC EXTREMISTS

Using Intelligence for Prevention

SUICIDE ATTACKS BY ISLAMIC EXTREMISTS

Using Intelligence for Prevention

Dr. David L. CarterMichigan State University

Perspective—Suicide AttacksPerspective—Suicide Attacks

1983 Hezbollah in Lebanon Mid 1980s – 2001 "Tamil Tigers”

over 200 attacks before the 2001

1993 – 2000 around 200 suicide attacks in Israel by Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Fatah and PFLP

1995 Egyptian Jihad – attacks in Croatia and Karachi, Pakistan

1998 al-Qaida two simultaneous suicide attacks against U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania killing 252 people and injuring more than 5,000

2000 Chechen militants fighting against the Russian army joined the circle of suicide bombers• To date, Chechen suicide

attackers have committed an untold number of attacks, in which scores have been wounded and killed

2000, a suicide attack believed to have been orchestrated by al-Qaida, used a skiff to pull alongside the destroyer USS Cole, docked in Aden, Yemen

2001 on U.S. soil in New York, Washington and Pennsylvania

PerspectivePerspective

A suicide attack is often viewed as a terrorist wearing an explosives-laden vest, detonating it in a crowded place

Remember: 9/11 was a series of coordinated suicide attacks• Hence vest bombs are not the

only suicide attack method

Goals of this PresentationGoals of this Presentation

Provide perspective whysuicide attacks occur

Provide insight on themotivations and thoughtprocesses related tosuicide attacks

Examine trends insuicide attacks, includingthe probability of futuresuch attacks on the U.S.

Provide a model on howsuch attacks can be prevented through intelligence

Perspective: The Suicide MethodologyPerspective: The Suicide Methodology

Suicide attacks – an intentional strategy to accomplish terrorists’ goals

Not a product of…• Lone radicals or• The mentally ill

Challenge: Move beyond “western logic” to understand these attacks

Motivations for Suicide AttacksMotivations for Suicide Attacks

First: Motivation of the individual• The individual demonstrates a commitment to his/her religious

beliefs• Shows commitment to the “holy war” by giving up his/her life• Seeks a personal reward and/or seeks salvation in exchange

for performing the attack Second: Motivation by the terrorist organization that

receives both tactical and strategic benefit from the attacks• Careful balance of the terrorist organization’s need and use of

the attack intertwined with the largely religious motivation of the individual to voluntarily be a suicide attacker that makes such acts successful

Individual MotivationsIndividual Motivations

An afterlife that is flush with those things that are missing in their home on earth• e.g., plenty of water, lush plant life, and peace

Martyrs may bring seventy people to this lush afterlife• Hence the act is ensuring a place of eternal serenity for their

family and friends. Many of the suicide attackers are single males who believe

they will be married in the afterlife to one of the seventy-two women they will receive as a reward for martyrdom• Each of these women will remain forever young and forever

virgin• There have been a number of cases where the family of the

attacker will hold a wedding reception in order to celebrate the marriage after the suicide attack


Other reasons…• Some suicide attackers – notably

women – commit act as reparation for dishonor, such as committing adultery

• Identifying and using such women has been a rational decision by terrorist leaders

Viewed as a way to surprise law enforcement and intelligence community


Other reasons…• Family may receive money as

payment for the attack • Hamas followers know they will

have to give something to“the cause” in order for their group’s goals to be met

This includes volunteering as a suicide attacker

• Often viewed as being prestigious to be selected for such an important assignment in the “struggle with the kuffar”

Individual Motivations-MartyrdomIndividual Motivations-Martyrdom

Jihad essentially means a religious struggle, whether it is by an individual who is struggling with a personal temptation or at a group level to overcome injustice• Islamic extremists, interpret the

actions of Israel and the United States to be threats to the sanctity of Islam justifying jihad

If a Muslim gives his/her life in support of the jihad, that person becomes a shahid (martyr)• Receives salvation• Also a source of pride


Excerpt from article in Al-Khansaa published by Al Qa'ida's Arabian Peninsula Women's Information Bureau - calls on women to participate in jihad.

One writer stated, in part:• We stand shoulder to shoulder with our men, supporting

them, helping them, and backing them up. We educate their sons and we prepare ourselves. We will stand covered by our veils and wrapped in our robes, weapons in hand, our children in our laps, with the Koran … directing and guiding us. The blood of our husbands and the body parts of our children are the sacrifice by means of which we draw closer to Allah, (emphasis added) …


Being a shahid is considered an honor to the individual and the family

Palestinian children are socialized about this from an early age• Martyrdom is glorified – it is

viewed as something to strive for

• It also has the support by many parents

Children are urged to be shahid


In sum, reasons for individual motivations:• Martyrdom• Redemption• Salvation• A better life for

Oneself One’s family

Appears to have become aself-perpetuating subcultureof martyrdom

Motivation of the Terrorist GroupMotivation of the Terrorist Group

For suicide attack to be successful, the terrorist organization is crucial for• Planning• Acquiring weaponry• Choosing operatives• Targeting• Executing the attack

Remember, suicide attacks are viewed as a strategic weapon by terrorist organizations

Motivation of the Terrorist Group-1Motivation of the Terrorist Group-1

It is difficult for the government to develop a strategic response to a suicide attack• Traditional counterterrorism approaches – target

hardening or interdiction of operations – will not work

Virtually no “intelligence chatter” No overall doctrine or “order of battle”The attacks are unpredictable


Suicide attacks generally result in a larger number of casualties than do other types of attacks

This increases…• Physical effects of attack (loss of life and

destruction)• Psychological damage to the target


Suicide attacks usually attract more publicity than do other types of attacks• Suicide attacks tend to focus on soft targets

Large number of victims ensures public attention

• The attacker is part of the story


The use of suicide attacks maximizes the effect of the bombing• If there is no need to provide an

escape route for the attacker, thecomplexity of the plan is greatlyreduced

• Suicide attackers can often get closer to the target at the desired time than can other attack methods

• The person is a “thinking platform” that can negotiate obstacles, change locations as needed, focus on and get near specific targets to maximize damage, and precisely detonate at the point to maximize casualties


Suicide attacks can be especiallyintimidating for the target population• Given the nature of the attack itself

and the character of soft targets, itis a “force multiplier” with respect tothe psychological effect it has

Remember: Those who advocate suicide attacks and those who commit the attacks believe that these actions are morally justified for the greater good of Islam

Suicide Attack TrendsSuicide Attack Trends

1990-2000 Israel experienced 35 suicide attacks

Since the al-Aqsa Intifada in September 2000 through March 2004, there were 256 suicide attacks in Israel

Nearly a third of these attacks (31.6%) were against “soft targets”• Difficult to defend• Virtually impossible to forecast• Soft target is a force multiplier

TARGET OF ATTACK

NUMBER OF ATTACKS

Public buses 29

Crowded places 25

Shopping malls 9

Bus stations 8

Restaurants 6

Trains 3

Police & military 176


We have made good progress in protecting critical infrastructure – what about soft targets?

The words of an al-Qaida sympathizer a year after the 9/11 attacks resonate a chilling warning:

“We are proving the kuffar [infidels] in Washington wrong. They said al-Qaida would be finished. But we are emerging stronger and will hit America's shopping malls, stadiums and kindergartens. This is our promise.” Saudi refugee, Jamal Waheeb in USA Today, September 9, 2002

June 14, 2004 the U.S. Department of Justice indictedNuradin M. Abdi for providing material support toal-Qaida which included the alledged intent to detonatea bomb at a shopping mall in the Columbus, Ohio area.


July 14-September 19, 2004, there were thirty suicide attacks reported in the international news media

These attacks reported 352 people killed and 904 injured• An average of 5.3 people killed and 13.5 people injured

each day by suicide attacks during this period. Since September 11, 2001, suicide attacks have been

reported on every continent except Antarctica• At least twelve different terrorists’ groups

claiming responsibility All of these groups represent Islamic

extremism

Suicide Attack Threat to the U.S.Suicide Attack Threat to the U.S.

In the eyes of terrorist organizations, suicide attacks have been “successes”

U.S. is a stated target of Islamic extremists

It is reasonable to conclude that the U.S. will again be targeted by suicide attacks, based on several factors…


1. The U.S. was the victim of a massive suicide attack on September 11, 2001

2. Terrorists’ organizations view suicide attacks as effective because of the ability to maximize target penetration and kill more people

3. The nature of the suicide attack feeds media coverage, and consequently magnifies the fear of terrorism (e.g., a “force multiplier”)

4. In the last four years, suicide attacks have been used in an ever-widening international circle on every continent except Antarctica

5. The wide use of the Internet by Islamic extremists for all types of purposes, includes significant support for suicide attacks. In turn, this fuels the “celebrity” of martyrdom for deeply religious, anti-west impressionable young Muslims


6. The United States is replete with soft targets that have virtually no security whatsoever

• The types of targets preferred by terrorists’ organizations that use suicide attacks

7. Suicide attacks have largely become the attack methodology de jeur among Islamic extremist groups

8. As demonstrated by the large number of suicide attacks that have occurred in recent years – many times with multiple suicide attacks in one day – there appears to be a robust number of individuals who will volunteer to be a suicide attacker


9. Islamic radicals have unequivocally stated the desire to strike in the U.S.

10. The increased suicide attacks by Islamic radicals since 9/11

11. The intense hatred directed toward the U.S. by these extremists,

12. Collectively, it is logical to assume that future assaults on U.S. targets will include suicide attacks

Character of Suicide AttacksCharacter of Suicide Attacks

Two types of pre-attack indicators• Indicators of an

imminent attack The attacker is “armed”

and in route to the target

• Indicators of attack planning

Since 10/1/ 2000 over 400 terrorist attacks prevented in Israel


Key element in prevention is intelligence• Raw information is needed

Type of information needed must be communicated to• Police officers• Community members

Will help them know• What is “suspicious”• What to report

Understanding attack methodology is essential


Behavioral indicators of suicide attacks take two forms:• Religious rituals as part of

the path to shahada (martyrdom)

• Strategic activities designed to help facilitate the attack

Behavioral Indicators - Martyrs Behavioral Indicators - Martyrs

For the glory of shahada (to achieve martyrdom) preparations include:• The payment of all debts and resolving all financial

issues• Closing bank accounts• Contacting family and friends to “close loose ends” and

tell them goodbye• Contacting people for whom the attacker has had a

conflict or disagreement and asking forgiveness for the trespass

• Giving away possessions• A significant increase in meditation and prayer• Taking showers or bathing several times for cleansing

Behavioral Indicators - Strategic Behavioral Indicators - Strategic

New clothes with a secular, western appearance (including women)

Freshly cut short hair Clean shaven Dark glasses Typically quiet and

introverted Focused on the objective

Demographic factors--Israel…• 64% of the suicide attackers

were under the age of 23• 84% were single• 98% were male• Tended to be college

educated • Typically from middle class or

higher families• Devout Muslims

The youngest suicide attacker was 10 years old.

Types of Suicide AttacksTypes of Suicide Attacks

1. Attacker wears a self-actuated bomb as a vest or belt

2. Vehicle borne improvised explosive device (VB-IED) driven by attacker

3. An aggressive assault in an open area using firearms and grenades against intended targets until the attacker is killed by police or military

4. Use of an airplane or other inherently destructive vehicle (such as a gasoline tanker truck) as the instrument of the attack

Planner: Leader who designates an attack including the general location, targets and timing

Bomb maker: Secures raw materials; constructs bomb and detonation mechanism.

Locater: Identifies suicide candidate; recommends candidate to the Planner; solicits candidate upon approval of Planner

Spokesperson. Claims responsibility along with a statement of the purpose of the attack• Provides photographs and/or video of attack to media

Transportation companion. Transports attacker to the location • Provides continued reinforcement of the moral responsibility

the attacker

Suicide Attack Team MembersSuicide Attack Team Members

Working With the Muslim CommunityWorking With the Muslim Community

American Muslim Public Affairs Council, states:

“Present clear, unambiguous suggestions to citizens who want to assist in law enforcement efforts. The public needs to understand more clearly what it means to be vigilant and itneeds clear directives on how toreport suspicious behavior. Federaland local agencies must providespecific tips on recognizing criminalbehavior while discouraging hoaxesand vigilantism. These guidelinesmust be easily accessible on hardcopy as well as on the web .”


ODP Guidelines for Homeland Security, state:• Provide examples and materials that may aid the recognition of

terrorism to community policing contacts in order to make members of the community aware of those actions, behaviors and events that constitute “suspicious”.

• Ensure that members of the community areaware of the means of and processes forrelaying observed data to police officers andpolice organizations, just as they are, orshould be, aware of methods to relayinformation to Community Policing officers.

• Encourage prevention, proactive policing,and close working relationships between thepolice and the community


Examples of success:• “Operation Rainbow”

of the London Metropolitan Police, Counterterrorism Division

• Community Patrols of the Israeli Police

CASE STUDY:Suicide Attacks – Istanbul (Nov 2003)

CASE STUDY:Suicide Attacks – Istanbul (Nov 2003)

Four suicide attacks in four days in Istanbul, Turkey

The attacks by al-Qaida were coordinated

Targets represented Israel and the West

Deaths Injuries

Neve Salom Synagogue 11 87Beth Israel Synagogue 15 134British Consulate 15 139HSBC Bank 27 380TOTAL 68 740

Istanbul Suicide Attacks (Nov 15 & 20, 2003)Istanbul Suicide Attacks (Nov 15 & 20, 2003)

Confiscated in the InvestigationConfiscated in the Investigation

5 Kaleschnikov AK-47 rifles with (9) magazines

1117 BULLETS FOR AK-47 3 - 7.65 mm hand guns with (29)

bullets 2 Pen Guns 2 Shotguns and ammunition 800 Pounds Hexa Methylene

Tetramıne (Main Chemical Ingredient for the explosives)

150 Pounds Penta Erıtrıtol-M (Chemical Ingredient for explosives)

150 Pounds Sodium Carbonate (Chemical Ingredient for explosives)

Different types of acids as chemical ingredient for the explosives

Laboratory equipment to handle the chemical materials,

700 feet electric cable to wire the explosives

16 sticks of TNT, (19) Dynamite Capsules, (80) feet fuse

2 Fog Bombs 22 hand radios for

communication Forged documents, passports,

drivers’ licenses and other types of forged identification

89 large detergent barrels as camouflage

Istanbul Suicide Attacks (Nov 15 & 20, 2003)Istanbul Suicide Attacks (Nov 15 & 20, 2003)

294 people were arrested who had some knowledge of the plan• 48 of these were “hard core” terrorists

Implications:• The vast amount of materiel – people would have

observed• If this many people were identified who knew about the

terror attack, there were many more out there who had knowledge or saw suspicious behavior

• Educate people what to look for as signs of terrorism• Establish mechanisms for them to communicate their

suspicions OBSERVE ---------- DOCUMENT ---------- REPORT

New Insights on TerroristsNew Insights on Terrorists

Research from Turkish National Police• Over 1,000 terrorists interviewed• 30% influenced to join by family members• 33% influenced to join by friends

These 63% did not join for ideological reasons• Most wanted to leave the terror organization, but did not

because of fear of retribution Implications:

• You can get informants• You can get intelligence

Lessons Learned From Istanbul(From the Turkish National Police)Lessons Learned From Istanbul(From the Turkish National Police)

Terrorist organizations need money for their activities, thus intelligence and counterterrorism activities should have a financial investigations component.

Simple chemical substances may be used in the attacks that are provided easily from legitimate sources.

Terrorists will use false documents while preparing their attacks.

The potential targets must be protected properly and security staff must be trained against the terror attacks accordingly.

Terrorists have good technological and communications skills, including mobile phones, radios, and Internet.

Publications and web sites of the terror organizations must be followed.

Intelligence is essential for prevention and investigation.

Next StepsNext Steps

Have an intelligence capacity in the agency Develop a solid, trusting relationship with the Muslim

community Educate officer and citizens about signs and symbols of:

• Shahid and strategic behaviorsrelated to suicide attacks

• Suicide team members Teach citizens:

• What is suspicious behavior• How to observe• How to report suspicious

behavior

QUESTIONS AND COMMENTSQUESTIONS AND COMMENTS

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