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Successful management of small pelagics within a large international region: The case for collaborative assessment work within the recently formed
South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organization (SPRFMO)
James Ianelli
Alaska Fisheries Science Center
NMFS/NOAA
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4th Scientific Committee
October 2016
Acknowledgements:
Scientific Committee, 52-participants from 13 countries
https://www.sprfmo.int/meetings/4th-sc-2016/
https://www.sprfmo.int/2nd-scientific-committee/
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Point #1
Big area, important fisheries
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The South Pacific Regional Fishery Management
Organization…
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Jack mackerel fishery
Year
S-C Chile
N Chile
Offshore
Far-North
Catc
h (t
hous
ands
of t
)
2016
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Point #2
Complex organizational task to create a Commission…
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Feb 2006 1st international consultation in Wellington NZ
7 more consultations
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2010, 1st “Prep Con” (preparatory conference)
2012, 3rd and last PrepCon
SPRFMO 1st Meeting
Auckland NZ 2013
The South Pacific Regional Fishery Management Organization…
Science
Admin/Organizational 2 Hobart, Australia Nov 2006
3 Renaca, Chile May 2007
4 New Caledonia Sep 2007
5 Guayaquil, Ecuador Mar 2008
6 Canberra, Australia Oct 2008
7 Lima, Peru May 2009
8 New Zealand Nov 2009
Assessment methods simulation testing
2008 FAO Jack mackerel
workshop Santiago
Assessment and Rebuilding Plan
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Robin Leslie Allen
1943 – 2015
The Commission and Scientific Committee indebted to his service, intellect, and motivation
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Complex task…
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Point #3
Science endeavor to manage the region’s fisheries
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SPRFMO Science-management interface…
Article 10 of Convention:
(a) plan, conduct and review scientific assessments of the status of fishery resources
(b) provide advice and recommendations to the Commission and its subsidiary bodies based on such assessments
(c) provide advice and recommendations to the Commission and its subsidiary bodies on the impact of fishing on the marine ecosystems in the Convention Area
(d) encourage and promote cooperation in scientific research and
(e) provide such other scientific advice to the Commission and its subsidiary bodies as it considers appropriate
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Feb 2006 1st international consultation in Wellington NZ
7 more consultations
…
2010, 1st “Prep Con” (preparatory conference)
2012, 3rd and last PrepCon
SPRFMO 1st Meeting
Auckland NZ 2013
The South Pacific Regional Fishery Management Organization…
Science
Admin/Organizational 2 Hobart, Australia Nov 2006
3 Renaca, Chile May 2007
4 New Caledonia Sep 2007
5 Guayaquil, Ecuador Mar 2008
6 Canberra, Australia Oct 2008
7 Lima, Peru May 2009
8 New Zealand Nov 2009
Assessment methods simulation testing
2008 FAO Jack mackerel
workshop Santiago
Assessment and Rebuilding Plan
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Perceptions…early 2012
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Jack mackerel Conservation and Management Measure
1st Commission meeting, 2013
The Commission of the SPRFMO, Noting that despite the efforts that have been made to arrest the depletion of
the Trachurus murphyi stock, it remains at very low levels;
Concerned in particular with the low levels of the current biomass, high fishing mortality and the high degree of
associated uncertainties;
Taking into account the outcomes of the stock assessment carried out in October of 2012 and the advice of the
Scientific Working Group (SWG) established by the Preparatory Conference,
Bearing in mind the commitment to apply the precautionary approach and take decisions based on the best
scientific and technical information available as set out in Article 3 of the Convention;
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Jack mackerel Conservation and Management Measure
1st Commission meeting, 2013
Recognizing that a primary function of the Commission is to adopt conservation and management measures to achieve the
objective of the Convention, including, as appropriate, conservation and management measures for particular fish stocks;
Affirming its commitment to rebuilding the stock of Trachurus murphyi and ensuring its long term conservation and sustainable management in accordance with the objective of the Convention,
Recognizing the need for effective monitoring and control and surveillance of fishing for Trachurus murphyi …
In 2013 the total catch of Trachurus murphyi in the area to which this CMM applies in accordance with paragraph 1 shall be
limited to 360,000 tons.
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My assertion…
…SPRFMO was the fastest most effective Commission in establishing strict science-
based Conservation and Management Measures
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Point #4
Jack mackerel assessment and application to advice
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Jack mackerel assessment background
2008 Santiago SPRFMO/FAO
workshop
2009 SWG 8 call for simulation testing (ASTT)
2010 ASTT Lima • Simulation testing
task team
2011 Preliminary model accepted
for advice
2012 SWG Lima Alternative
stock hypothesis
SC01 2013 Full assessment and
Model revisions SC02 2014
Full Assessment and projections
SC03 2015 Assessment update only—just new data Data compilation focus
SC04 2016 Full assessment and projections
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Assessment data 4
“Fle
ets”
Land
ings
all
year
s
Catch at age or length
Abundance Indices
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Jack mackerel catches
Catch history updated, 2016 projected based on member input historic patterns
S-C Chile
N Chile
Offshore
Far-North
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Model fit to CPUE and survey abundance indices
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Fits to age data (S-C Chilean fleet)
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SPRFMO Jack mackerel assessment
Examine effect of new data
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Model configuration sensitivities
SPRFMO Jack mackerel assessment
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Working hypotheses on population structure
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Stock structure hypotheses
Hypothesis Stock Fleets
Hypothesis 1 (multiple stocks)
Northern Stock Far north
Southern Stock Northern Central-South Offshore fleet
Hypothesis 2 Single stock
Far north Northern Chile Central-South Chile Offshore fleet
*Hypotheses as presented from the 2008 SPRFMO/FAO meeting
SPRFMO Jack mackerel assessment
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Conceptual model of connectivity
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Ocean
Circulation
Model
Resolves
eddies
Source: INPESCA
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Sources of uncertainty
• Within model – Data precision
• Between models – Structural uncertainty
• Projections – Environmental effects
on recruitment etc.
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Diagnostics
Lack
of f
it
Likelihood profiling…
SPRFMO Jack mackerel assessment
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Diagnostics Re
crui
tmen
t
Year
With new data
No new data
“Retrospective” pattern
SPRFMO Jack mackerel assessment
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The image part with relationship ID rId4 was not found in the file.
Spawning biomass (kt) Fishing mortality
Recruitment Catches (kt)
Stock summary Single stock
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Stock summary Northern stock
Spawning biomass (kt) Fishing mortality
Recruitment Catches (kt)
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Stock summary Southern stock
Spawning biomass (kt) Fishing mortality
Recruitment Catches (kt)
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Science Advice summary
–“Good” probability to continue to increase spawning biomass
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Point #5
What about environmental drivers of this small pelagic resource?
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Recruitment “regimes”
2000-2013
1970-2013
SC stock status indicators
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0
5000
10000
15000
0 2500 5000 7500 10000
Age
one
recr
uitm
ent (
mill
ions
)
Spawning biomass (thousands of t)
4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4Recruitment “regimes”
Considering full time series
Recruits from 2000-2013
Stock status considerations
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Communicating to Commission…
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Catch projections
• Table 1…higher productivity
kt
kt
kt
kt
kt
kt
kt
kt
kt
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Catch projections
• Table 1…lower productivity
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Recruitment “regimes”
2000-2013
1970-2013
SC stock status indicators
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Recent recruitment
Spawning stock projections & rebuilding
No fishing
Year
Spaw
ning
bio
mas
s (k
t)
Over different
future fishing
mortality rates
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Spawning stock projections & rebuilding
Over different
future fishing
mortality rates Full recruitment
history
No fishing
Year
Spaw
ning
bio
mas
s (k
t)
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F t/F
MSY
Bt/BMSY Stock status (Biomass)
Relativ
e Fi
shin
g ra
te
Stock status and history
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SC Advice summary to Commission
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Jack mackerel assessment challenges
Growth
– Large variability between regions • And methods for age determination
Productivity
– Current stock status advice conservative • Recent low recruitment for projections • Target reference points based on full time series • Affects rebuilding plan
Spatial considerations
– Desire to tie catch limits to relative spatial distributions – Higher order problem (not to mention politics)
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Review
1. Big area, important fisheries
2. Complex organizational task to create a Commission
3. Science endeavor to manage the region’s fisheries
4. Jack mackerel assessment and application to advice
5. What about environmental drivers of this small pelagic resource?
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Courtecy of Tomasz Raczyński and Ad Corten
Thanks!
Successful management of small pelagics within a large international region: �The case for collaborative assessment work within the recently formed �South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organization (SPRFMO)�4th Scientific Committee�October 2016Point #1The South Pacific Regional Fishery Management Organization…Jack mackerel fisheryPoint #2The South Pacific Regional Fishery Management Organization…Slide Number 8Slide Number 9Complex task…Point #3SPRFMO Science-management interface…The South Pacific Regional Fishery Management Organization…Perceptions…early 2012Jack mackerel Conservation and Management Measure�1st Commission meeting, 2013Jack mackerel Conservation and Management Measure�1st Commission meeting, 2013My assertion…Point #4Jack mackerel assessment backgroundAssessment dataJack mackerel catchesModel fit to CPUE and survey abundance indicesFits to age data (S-C Chilean fleet)SPRFMO Jack mackerel assessmentSPRFMO Jack mackerel assessmentWorking hypotheses on population structureStock structure hypothesesSlide Number 28Slide Number 29Sources of uncertaintyDiagnosticsDiagnosticsSlide Number 33Stock summary�Northern stockStock summary�Southern stockSlide Number 36Point #5Recruitment “regimes”Recruitment “regimes”Communicating to Commission…Catch projectionsCatch projectionsRecruitment “regimes”Spawning stock projections & rebuildingSpawning stock projections & rebuildingSlide Number 46SC Advice summary to CommissionJack mackerel assessment challengesReviewThanks!