SUB-NATIONAL FOREIGN-BORN POPULATION PROJECTIONS

THE CASE OF ANDALUSIA

Silvia Bermúdez, Juan A. Hernández & Joaquín PlanellesAndalusian Statistical Office

Index

Andalusia in Context Nationality versus Place of Birth Demographic Phenomena Main Results

Index

Andalusia in Context Nationality versus Place of Birth Demographic Phenomena Main Results

Andalusia in Context

1. Andalusia is located in Europe

Andalusia in Context

1. Andalusia is located in Europe

2. It is a part of Spain

Andalusia in Context

1. Andalusia is located in Europe

2. It is a part of Spain

3. It is down south of Iberian Peninsula

Andalusia in Context

17 Regions

Big within Spanish context:

1st in terms of population. 8 million, 18% share

2nd in terms of size, 17% share

Andalusia in Context

50 Provinces

(8 in Andalusia)

8.112 municipalities (770 in Andalusia)

Andalusia in Context

Madrid and the Coast

2 out of 6 half-million cities

Andalusia in Context

Madrid and the Coast

2 out of 6 half-million cities

… And immigrants follow the very same pattern

Index

Andalusia in Context Nationality versus Place of Birth Demographic Phenomena Main Results

Nationality vs Place of birth

1. Andalusian population projection have traditionally distinguished 3 variables….

Origin of

individuals

Nationality vs Place of birth

2. The choice of the definition is mainly based on data availability & plausibility of identifying demographic clusters

Long term convergence?

Second generations

How many “origin” groups?

Different patterns for fertility, ¿mortality? & mobility converge on the long term

Not considered separately

5 groups based on the place of birth with unique population structures & demographic behaviours

Further questions…. we have assumed…

Nationality vs Place of birth

Nationality vs Place of birth

1. Born in Spain

Nationality vs Place of birth

2. Born in Africa

Male thing, labor ages

Nationality vs Place of birth

3. Born in Latin America

Female thing, labor ages

Nationality vs Place of birth

4. Born in UE15

Retirement thing

Nationality vs Place of birth

5. Other

Balanced, labor ages.

Index

Andalusia in Context Nationality versus Place of Birth Demographic Phenomena Main Results

Demographic Phenomena

1. Changes in fertility patterns are similar to other European Regions

Though changes were more drastic and they began later

Demographic Phenomena

1. Immigrant fertility is greater and it starts sooner

Demographic Phenomena

1. Immigrant fertility is greater and it starts sooner

… But immigrant population is heterogeneous

Demographic Phenomena

1. Immigrant fertility is greater and it starts sooner

… But immigrant population is heterogeneous

Demographic Phenomena

2. Mean life duration has experienced a dramatic change in Andalusia

Demographic Phenomena

2. Mean life duration has experienced a dramatic change in Andalusia

… So we assumed those trends to continue in the future

Demographic Phenomena

2. It was impossible to record differential place of birth mortality patterns

Strong positive

correlation income vs

health status

Demographic Phenomena

3. Migration analysis and modeling issues

• Most volatile phenomena

• Difficult to deal with when forecasting

• Migration data presents lower quality than other phenomena

• Difficult coverage of targeted population

• Sub-phenomena based on the flow direction & geographical scope

• Internal & External, In & out migrations

Demographic Phenomena

3. Migration sub-phenomena decomposition

As many times as birth groups selected

Index

Andalusia in Context Nationality versus Place of Birth Demographic Phenomena Main Results

Main Results

1. Population will continue growing in the coming years, due to its natural growth potential

Nonetheless, population is likely to fall in the long run

Main Results

2. Despite expected increase in fertility, births are likely to fall

Main Results

2. Despite expected increase in fertility, births are likely to fall

Despite expected reduction in mortality, casualties are likely increase

Main Results

3. Ageing. Baseline

Main Results

3. Ageing. Low growth

Main Results

3. Ageing. High growth

Main Results

3. Population is ageing

Main Results

3. Population is ageing

… But should we use static indicators of ageing?

Dynamic indicators may be required to compare the so called “senior groups” in a

context of continuousImprovement of Life Expectancy & Disability-

free life expectancy rates

Main Results

4. Foreign-born population is likely to increase in the future.

Main Results

4. Foreign-born population is likely to increase in the future.

… But in the long term, immigrant population will get older too.

Main Results

5. Data access.

http://www.iea.junta-andalucia.es/proyecc

Contact information

Thank you

jantonio.hernandez@juntadeandalucia.es

silvia.bermudez.parrado@juntadeandalucia.es

joaquin.planelles@juntadeandalucia.es