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Study on the Feed-in Tariff Rates for Renewable Energy in Hong Kong Final report April 2018 Electrical and Mechanical Services Department

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Page 2: Study on the Feed-in Tariff Rates for Renewable Energy in ... · Study on the Feed-in Tariff Rates for Renewable Energy in Hong Kong Final Report Atkins Final Report | April 2018

Study on the Feed-in Tariff Rates for Renewable Energy in Hong Kong Final Report

Atkins Final Report | April 2018 | 5162154

Table of contents

Chapter Pages

Glossary

Abbreviations

1. Executive summary 1 1.1. Review of FiT regimes in other jurisdictions 1 1.2. Determination of FiT rates for Hong Kong 3

2. Feed-in Tariff Rates for UK 4 2.1. Reasoning for FiT introduction 4 2.2. FiT development and history 4 2.3. LCOE assumptions 5 2.4. Technologies and eligibility criteria 6 2.5. Adjustment of FiT rates and development caps 7 2.6. Current FiT rates 7 2.7. Benefits and drawbacks 10

3. Feed-in Tariff Rates for Germany 11 3.1. Reasoning for FiT introduction 11 3.2. FiT development and history 11 3.3. LCOE assumptions 12 3.4. Technologies and eligibility criteria 12 3.5. Adjustment of FiT rates 13 3.6. Current FiT rates 13 3.7. Additional information 15 3.8. Benefits and drawbacks 15

4. Feed-in Tariff Rates for Taiwan 16 4.1. Reasoning for FiT introduction 16 4.2. FiT development and history 16 4.3. LCOE assumptions 17 4.4. Technologies and eligibility criteria 17 4.5. Adjustment of FiT rates 17 4.6. Current FiT rates 17 4.7. Additional information 19 4.8. Benefits and drawbacks 20

5. Feed-in Tariff Rates for Japan 22 5.1. Reasoning for FiT introduction 22 5.2. FiT development and history 22 5.3. LCOE assumptions 22 5.4. Adjustment of FiT rates 23 5.5. Technology and eligibility criteria 23 5.6. Current FiT rates 24 5.7. Additional information 25 5.8. Benefits and drawbacks 26

6. Feed-in Tariffs for Australia 27 6.1. Reasoning for FiT introduction 27 6.2. FiT development and history 27 6.3. LCOE assumptions 28 6.4. Technologies and eligibility criteria 28 6.5. Adjustment of FiT rates 29 6.6. Current FiT rate 29

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6.7. Additional information 29 6.8. Benefits and drawbacks 30

7. Summary of reviews 31 7.1. FiT rates 31 7.2. Implementation and changes to FiT rates 32 7.3. Additional areas considered 35

8. LCOE modelling 37 8.1. Model Requirements 38 8.2. Model Assumptions 38 8.3. Results 40 8.4. Sensitivities 41

9. Payback period sensitivity analysis 42 9.1. Results for payback period set at 8 years 42 9.2. Results for payback period set at 12 years 42

10. Conclusion 43 10.1. LCOE 43 10.2. Eligible Technologies 44 10.3. RE FiT rates and Tariffs 45

11. References 46

Tables Table 1-1 Ratio of initial FiT rate to residential tariff at the year of first launch for PV in the reviewed

jurisdictions ................................................................................................................................ 1 Table 1-2 Summary of recommended lifespan by technology .................................................................. 2 Table 1-3 Summary of initial indicative FiT rates from LCOE modelling ................................................... 3 Table 2-1 Average1 FiT Rates on 1 April 2010 for technologies of interest ............................................... 4 Table 2-2 Technology Caps for FiT Rates in the UK ................................................................................. 7 Table 2-3 FiT Rates in the UK for the period 2017/18-2018/19 ................................................................. 8 Table 2-4 PV Export Tariff Rates - 2010 to present ................................................................................... 8 Table 2-5 Average FiT Rates for the period 2018/19 ................................................................................ 9 Table 2-6 Comparison of average FiT rates for the start of the period 2018/2019 against the current

average residential tariff ............................................................................................................ 9 Table 3-1 Average1 FiT Rates for all technologies in 1991 ..................................................................... 11 Table 3-2 Maximum FiT Rates for PV Installations ................................................................................. 13 Table 3-3 FiT Rates for Other Renewable Energy Sources .................................................................... 14 Table 3-4 Average FiT Rates Converted into HK$ .................................................................................. 14 Table 3-5 Comparison of current average FiT rates against the current average residential tariff ......... 14 Table 4-1 FiT Rates for technologies of interest in 2010 compared against residential tariff .................. 17 Table 4-2 Current and Planned solar PV FiT rates .................................................................................. 18 Table 4-3 FiT Rates for other RES in 2018.............................................................................................. 18 Table 4-4 FiT Rates in Taiwan converted into HK$ ................................................................................. 18 Table 4-5 Comparison of average FiT rates for 2018 against the current average residential tariff ....... 19 Table 5-1 Comparison of Initial average1 FiT rates in 2012 against average residential tariff ................ 22 Table 5-2 Purchase Prices per kWh - Solar............................................................................................. 24 Table 5-3 Current Solar PV FiT Rates in HK$ ......................................................................................... 24 Table 5-4 Purchase Prices per kWh - Biogas .......................................................................................... 24 Table 5-5 Purchase Prices per kWh - Wind ............................................................................................. 24 Table 5-6 Comparison of 2018 purchase prices against the current average residential tariff ............... 25 Table 6-1 Initial FiT rates ......................................................................................................................... 27 Table 6-2 Summary of the components in the benchmark range (2017-18) ........................................... 28 Table 6-3 Solar PV Capacities Eligible for FiT in Australia ...................................................................... 28 Table 6-4 Current FiT rates for Australian states ..................................................................................... 29 Table 6-5 Current average FiT rates for Australia ................................................................................... 29 Table 7-1 Compiled FiT rates across reviewed jurisdictions presented in HKc ....................................... 31 Table 7-2 Ratio of initial FiT rates across reviewed jurisdictions to residential tariff compared to ratio of

latest available FiT rate to residential tariff .............................................................................. 32 Table 7-3 Eligible Technologies for Jurisdictions Reviewed .................................................................... 34

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Table 7-4 Summary of technology lifespan.............................................................................................. 35 Table 7-5 Summary of load factors (in percentage terms) ...................................................................... 36 Table 8-1 Description of considered cost components ............................................................................ 37 Table 8-2 Load factor assumptions .......................................................................................................... 39 Table 8-3 Base case LCOE model results ............................................................................................... 40 Table 8-4 Sensitivity - variable OPEX for CHP Biogas with a payback period of 10 years ..................... 41 Table 8-5 Sensitivity replacement CAPEX + 10% for payback period of 10 years ................................. 41 Table 9-1 Payback period set at 8 years ................................................................................................. 42 Table 9-2 Payback period set at 12 years ............................................................................................... 42 Table 10-1 Technical assumptions ............................................................................................................ 44 Table 10-2 Results of the base LCOE model (10-year payback period) ................................................... 44 Table 10-3 Eligible Technologies for Jurisdictions Reviewed .................................................................... 44 Table 10-4 Ratio of initial FiT rates across reviewed jurisdictions to residential tariff compared to ratio of

latest available FiT rate to residential tariff .............................................................................. 45

Figures Figure 4-1 Formula for calculating FiT of renewable energy .................................................................... 16 Figure 4-2 Distribution of PV project sizes in Taiwan (2011 - Q2:2014) ................................................... 20 Figure 5-1 Information from METI on change in power generation .......................................................... 25

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Glossary

Term Description

CAPEX Capital cost of an installation

Cost of Debt The after-tax rate a company would have to pay today on its long-term debt.

Cost of Equity

The cost of equity is the expected total return on a company’s stock. Calculation of cost of equity relies on an asset pricing model to estimate it. The three best known models are the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), the Fama-French Three-Factor model, and arbitrage pricing theory (APT).

CPI A consumer price index measures changes in the price level of market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households.

Degression rate The percentage decrease in FiT rates due to the predicted decrease in capital cost of installations over time.

Deployment cap

A deployment cap is a total capacity limit of FiT installations used to set the level for revalidating FiT rates. This allows the scheme administrators to reopen an LCOE evaluation of the technologies which exceed or significantly fall below their cap. Reasons for setting such limits could include government environmental policy, government subsidy budget etc.

Gearing Ratio of a project's capital financed by loan (debt) to the value of equity

LCOE The net present value calculation of the unit-cost of electricity over the lifespan of a generating asset

REPEX or Replacement CAPEX Capital cost of replacing an asset or parts of an asset

OPEX or O&M costs Operation and maintenance costs associated to an asset

RoR Profit on an investment expressed in percentage

RPI

In the United Kingdom, the retail prices index or retail price index (RPI) is a measure of inflation published monthly by the Office for National Statistics. It measures the change in the cost of a representative sample of retail goods and services

WACC

Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is a calculation of a project or an investment’s cost of capital in which each category of capital (debt and equity) is proportionately weighted (according to the gearing ratio)

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Abbreviations

Abbreviation Name in Full

AD Anaerobic Digestion

BOE Bureau of Energy

CHP Combined Heat and Power

EPC Energy Performance Certificate

FiT Feed-in Tariff

IEA International Energy Agency

IPART Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal

JET Japanese Electrical Safety & Environmental Technology Laboratories

JISC Japanese Industrial Standards Committee

JSWA Japan Small Wind Turbines Association

LVRT Low voltage ride through

METI Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

NEM National Electric Market

NSW New South Wales

PV Photovoltaic

REDA Renewable Energy Development Act

RES Renewable Energy Source

RO Renewable Obligation

ROO Renewable Obligation Order

RPI Retail Price Index

RPS Renewable Portfolio Standard

WACC Weighted Average Cost of Capital

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1. Executive summary

1.1. Review of FiT regimes in other jurisdictions

1.1.1. Background of review

We (Atkins) were commissioned to study on the Feed-in Tariff (FiT) Rates for Renewable Energy (RE) in Hong Kong. We have carried out a review and analysis of the FiT regimes covering Australia, Germany, Japan, the UK, and Taiwan; and to understand the FiT rates for RE when FiTs were introduced and how they have changed with time. The renewable technologies considered were solar photovoltaic (PV), small scale wind and combined heat and power by biogas and biodiesel.

1.1.2. Findings of review

Use of levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) model

The most commonly adopted approach for the initial calculation of FiT rates is through a levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) model. This method is used in Germany and the UK with Taiwan using a simplified LCOE. The LCOE is a measure of the overall cost (including capital investment and operational costs) required to generate a unit of electricity from a given generation technology including RE, usually expressed in cost per kilowatt hour ($/kWh) of generation. If FiT rate is set to the LCOE of a renewable technology, and paid to the RE generators over the same period as the LCOE was calculated, the RE generators should expect to recover the costs invested.

The LCOE of a renewable technology often vary by technology and installed capacity. Often, smaller projects have higher LCOE owing to higher unit cost of equipment and installation (on a $/kW basis) and lower levels of power generation.

The advantage of using LCOE modelling is the clarity and transparency it provides for investors of RE.

Use of gross-metering approach for FiT

The calculation of LCOE and hence the application of FiT can be based on either gross-metering (paid for every unit of generated electricity) or net-metering (paid for the excess electricity exported to the grid only). Most of the jurisdictions covered in the review such as Germany, the UK and Taiwan have applied a variant of the gross-metering approach.

Other findings

For the jurisdictions under review, the ratio of initial FiT rate to residential tariff at the year of first launch for PV ranged from about 1 to 4.5 as shown in the table below.

Table 1-1 Ratio of initial FiT rate to residential tariff at the year of first launch for PV in the reviewed jurisdictions

Jurisdictions Year of first

launch

Initial FiT rate at the year of first

launch(1)

Residential tariff at the year of first

launch(1)

Ratio of initial FiT rate to residential tariff at the year of first launch

Germany 1991 8.5 EUR c/kWh(2)

(0.8 HK$/kWh)

9.4 EUR c/kWh(2)

(0.9 HK$/kWh) ~1

Australia 2010 60 AUD c/kWh

(4.3 HK$/kWh)

21.55 AUD c/kWh

(1.5 HK$/kWh) ~3

Taiwan 2010 11.8 NTD/kWh

(2.9 HK$/kWh)

2.61 NTD/kWh

(0.6 HK$/kWh) ~4.5

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Jurisdictions Year of first

launch

Initial FiT rate at the year of first

launch(1)

Residential tariff at the year of first

launch(1)

Ratio of initial FiT rate to residential tariff at the year of first launch

UK 2010 42.7 p/kWh

(5.1 HK$/kWh)

10.86 p/kWh

(1.3 HK$/kWh) ~4

Japan 2012 39 JPY/kWh

(3.8 HK$/kWh)

22.01 JPY/kWh

(2.2 HK$/kWh) ~2

Note 1: All equivalent HK$ are based on the exchange rate in the respective years.

Note 2: Assuming 1DM = 0.51EUR

The eligible technologies for the receiving of FiT within the jurisdictions reviewed vary. PV is eligible for FiT in all of the jurisdictions under review. Wind is an eligible technology in Germany, Japan, the UK and Taiwan; while combined heat and power by biogas is found to be only eligible in Germany and the UK.

Our review found that the range of FiT rates can vary largely among jurisdictions. As an example, the current FiT rate for small scale PV installations of less than 10kW capacity varies between HK$0.27/kWh in the UK to HK$1.89/kWh in Japan. The variation in FiT levels is owing to the differences in the method of determination such as the underlying LCOE modelling of the capital investment and operational costs (implicitly the assumed costs of materials, labour, expected rate of return, tax, insurance, uptake of renewable technology, etc.) and other factors such as policy considerations and acceptable level of incentivisation of RE within individual jurisdiction as well as the maturity of the FiT regime. It is therefore not possible for us to draw direct comparisons with the FiT levels of other jurisdictions although useful practice and lessons can be learnt from these regimes.

The review of the lifespan assumptions applied to relevant installations was through international research as well as manufacturers’ data sheets. Our recommendations based on this research are summarised in Table 1-2 below:-

Table 1-2 Summary of recommended lifespan by technology

Technology Recommended Range (years)

Solar PV 25-30

Onshore wind 20-25

Combined heat and power

20-25

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1.2. Determination of FiT rates for Hong Kong

1.2.1. Details of study

We have also carried out a LCOE assessment for a range of renewable technologies relevant to Hong Kong for determining the applicable FiT rates. Major assumptions of assessment are as follows:-

- FiT rates are applied on gross-metering basis - The LCOE is calculated over 10 years. This means that, in theory, if FiT rates are set at the

same value, the investor will see a payback in 10 years - 4% is used as the real discount rate in the model

The results of this LCOE assessment for FiT rates determination are presented below:

Table 1-3 Summary of initial indicative FiT rates from LCOE modelling

Technology LCOE (HK$/kWh) Payback year

PV <10kW 4.9 10

10kW< PV <200kW 3.8 10

200kW< PV <1MW 3.1 10

Wind <10kW 7.0 10

Combined heat and power (biogas) 1.4 10

1.2.2. FiT Rates Determination

The LCOE model for determination of the FiT rates for Hong Kong has included the following considerations:

- FiT rates are determined after review of LCOE results for each renewable technology and its capacity band;

- The recommended FiT rates will be applied for a maximum of about 15 years (having regard to the regulatory regime in Hong Kong), at rates set to be equal to the LCOE calculated over a 10-year period. All additional revenue after the 10-year payback period will belong to the investors of RE;

- Regular periodic reviews of the FiT rates will be undertaken to ensure new customers into the FiT scheme are receiving a proportionate and fair benefit from payments and having regard to changes in costs in installing and maintaining RE systems; and

- Inflation has been taken into account.

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2. Feed-in Tariff Rates for UK

2.1. Reasoning for FiT introduction

The FiT scheme was introduced on 1 April 2010, under the Energy Act 2008 in line with EU 2020 renewable energy targets as well as the UK 2050 decarbonisation targets. Experience in other policies, such as Renewables Obligation, determined a simplistic and easily accessible policy framework was required to encourage those outside the energy sector to take up renewable energy generation. The main objectives of the FiT schemes are to:

Encourage deployment of small-scale low-carbon electricity generation.

Empower people and give them a direct stake in the transition to a low-carbon economy.

Assist the public take-up of carbon reduction measures.

Foster behavioural changes in energy use.

Help develop local supply chains and drive down energy costs.

2.2. FiT development and history

FiT rates in the UK were initially determined in 2010 using an LCOE approach with a return on investment of 5%. This approach assumed an initial development cost including grid connection (CAPEX cost), an operating cost and an assumed amount of electricity exported into the grid from site. Original FiT rates for PV were provided for new-build, retrofit, standard and standalone PV installations at different capacity.

The initial FiT rates were set too high for a return on investment of 5% and the actual return on investment was nearer 10%. The high rate of return led to an installed capacity for PV installations of over 900MW, where the predicted installation capacity for the period was 116MW. Table 2-1 below shows the average FiT rates for three technologies when the rates were first introduced.

Table 2-1 Average1 FiT Rates on 1 April 2010 for technologies of interest

Technology FiT rate [p/kWh] Residential tariff2 [p/kWh) FiT rate/Residential

tariff

Solar PV 42.7 10.86 ~4

CHP (biogas) 12.28 10.86 ~1

Wind 37.5 10.86 ~3.5

Note 1: Calculated as a simple average of the FiT rates applicable to the same technology. Original FiT rates for PV were provided for new-build, retrofit,

standard and standalone PV installations at different capacity. These figures are presented in cash terms and not in real terms.

Note 2: Based on average annual economy 7 tariff across UK regions and across payment types (direct debit, standard credit and pre-pay meters). Data

from BEIS, table 2.2.2, Average annual domestic electricity bills for UK countries, published on 21/12/2017, available at

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/annual-domestic-energy-price-statistics (accessed 6/2/18). These figures are presented in cash terms

and not in real terms.

The FiT rates were reviewed, in 2011/2012, and corrected to provide a more accurate rate of return around 4.5-5% for future installations. The degression and contingent degression rates were determined and applied in order to account for decreasing CAPEX on installations over time and in case predicted installation capacities were exceeded. FiT payments are fixed for the duration of the FiT scheme upon acceptance onto the scheme, as such only customers joining the scheme at future dates receive new rates based on degression rates.

From 1 April 2012, other adjustments to the FiT rate scheme were also introduced for example the ‘warm home’ discount and multiple installations degression. The warm home discount was introduced as an increased FiT rate for PV installations which are electrically connected to a building with a required efficiency rating or higher. The multiple installations value was introduced to recognise the advantage of economies of scale for multiple installations and is effectively a lower tariff rate which is

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applied if the receiver of the FiT payments has more than 25 installations. These changes gave rise to three FiT tariff bands (high, medium and low) for PV at different capacities.

Review of FiT rates in the UK is only carried out if the uptake of FiT installations is significantly higher than predicted. This was the case in the scheme review in 2011/2012 mentioned above. FiT rates are not reviewed at regular intervals, nor is a formula used for determining FiT rates. The degression rates described are implemented so that the reducing trends in CAPEX are accounted for without the need for annual review.

2.3. LCOE assumptions

The initial FiT rates were set using an LCOE approach, this approach aimed to provide a rate of return of around 5%. The LCOE was determined using the following information:

Revenue Streams

- Generation tariff income - Bill savings (from avoided electricity imports) - Income from exported electricity

Cost Streams

- Capital Cost (CAPEX) - Operating Cost (OPEX)

2.3.1. Cost streams

As Capital Expenditure is a one-off payment in the first year, the costs are spread over the lifetime of the project. This is done using a discount rate (WACC) with the intended rate of return for the full project lifetime. The lifespan of PV technology is assumed to be 35 years. Operational expenditure covers maintenance, labour and running costs including insurance costs over time. To deliver the target return over the scheme term (25 years) the OPEX costs for the full project lifetime of 35 years are aggregated and covered in the 25-year’s tariff lifetime.

2.3.2. Revenue streams

The revenue streams are calculated for the full life of the project. To calculate the revenue streams, the rated capacity of the installation is first scaled by the expected load factor.

2.3.2.1. Generation tariff income

The generation tariff income is calculated as the predicted savings, during the tariff lifetime (25 years), of onsite produced electricity. This assumes an onsite percentage use based on the technology capacity band (50% for low capacity PV installations). The saving is calculated as the cost of purchasing the energy used onsite from the grid (using retail electricity price).

2.3.2.2. Bill Savings

The bill savings are the annuitized post-tariff lifetime revenue. This is the annual stream of bill savings after the tariff lifetime has finished until the end of project life (from year 26 to 35). As with generation tariff income calculation, this assumes an on-site consumption percentage (50%) which avoids import costs on electricity at the retail price.

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2.3.2.3. Income from exported electricity

The income from exported electricity is calculated as the predicted revenue, during tariff lifetime, of the exported energy to the grid. This assumes a percentage of energy which is exported to the grid based on the technology capacity band (50% for low capacity PV installations). The revenue is calculated as the received payment (by export tariff) for the electricity which is exported into the grid.

2.3.2.4. FiT and export tariff

The FiT scheme in the UK provides customers with a fixed rate for total gross electricity production. An additional rate (Export Tariff) is provided for electricity which is fed into the grid.

The value for the required generation tariff is calculated as the difference between the levelised cost and the revenue stream, where the levelised cost takes into account the agreed rate of return.

An export tariff is provided in addition to the generation tariff for all electricity which is exported into the grid. For installations, up to and including 30kW, the revenue from the export tariff can be calculated on the basis of an assumed export (50% exported). This method provides simplicity as consumers are all fixed to a constant rate for generation although it allows the possibility for exploitation of the scheme. Customers with such installations, if able to consume more than the predicted on-site percentage of generation, will benefit from both increased bill savings and receive export payment for energy that is not exported into the grid.

For installations exceeding 30kW, a meter which measures exported electricity is required. This is available but optional for installations below 30kW. The data from this meter is given to the FiT supplier in order to receive the export tariff for the electricity fed into the grid. An alternative method is the use of a smart meter, which records the electricity which is fed into the grid to be eligible for FiT payments. This method provides the generation tariff for all electricity generated and the export tariff for the metered electricity fed into the grid. The customer can then choose whether to benefit from increased export payments or bill savings by adjusting the on-site usage.

2.4. Technologies and eligibility criteria

The technologies which are eligible for FiT payments are: PV, onshore wind, hydropower, anaerobic digestion (AD) and micro combined heat and power (micro-CHP gas). The technologies were chosen as each of these are small-scale low carbon technologies which the increase in development would follow the overall purpose of the FiT scheme. The technologies are divided into tariff bands for different capacities, this has been implemented in order to account for economies of scale. Gas powered CHP up to 2kW is eligible for FiT payments, liquid biofuels (e.g. biodiesel) are excluded as these fuels are typically used at large scale and would be covered in the Renewable Obligation (RO).

Accreditation criteria is both technology and capacity dependent. Wind and solar PV systems with a declared net capacity of up to and including 50kW and micro-CHP up to and including 2kW must be installed under the Microgeneration Certification Scheme. The standards for Microgeneration Certification Scheme are publicly available, these pose requirements on the installer and product manufacturer. Applications for this scheme are submitted to a FiT Licensee (licensed electricity supplier with FiT participation status) for accreditation.

For solar PV and wind installations with a declared net capacity above 50kW and up to and including 5MW, as well as anaerobic digestion and hydro installations up to and including 5MW, applications are submitted to the UK energy regulator, Ofgem for Renewals Obligation Order Feed-In Tariff (ROO-FiT) accreditation.

Public and government buildings fitted with accredited and eligible installations are eligible for participation in the FiT regime.

Eligible technologies have not changed since introduction of the regime although some considerations for PV have changed, as explained above.

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2.5. Adjustment of FiT rates and development caps

No formula has been used for adjusting the FiT rates for future, instead the FiT rates are changed using a constant degression rate. The rate was determined by data trends in the increase in installations of renewable energy sources (RES) that follow the FiT scheme in order to account for the decrease in capital cost over project lifetime as the technology develops. The degression rates were determined by public consultation. The annual degression rate is around 10%.

The FiT rates in the UK are adjusted by the following:

Agreed Degression Rate:

- the percentage decrease in FiT rates due to the predicted decrease in capital cost of installations over time. The degression rate is agreed and fixed and applied to the FiT rates before other methods of adjustment are considered. The degression rate in the UK is applied on a quarterly basis (aggregating to around 10% annual degression rate). Note that the revenue for applications in previous quarters is grandfathered i.e. the reduced FiT rates are only applicable for new applications during the applicable quarter.

Retail Price Index (RPI):

- the FiT rates are adjusted by inflation using RPI. The RPI value is applied to the FiT rates after the degression rate has been applied.

Contingent Degression:

- the FiT rates are further reduced by 10% if the technology caps have been hit. Technology caps are determined for each individual technology category defined, based on a total FiT investment of £100M.

The caps for individual technologies are shown in Table 2-2.

Table 2-2 Technology Caps for FiT Rates in the UK

Maximum Deployment

[MW]

Q1 2016

Q2 2016

Q3 2016

Q4 2016

Q1 2017

Q2 2017

Q3 2017

Q4 2017

Q1 2018

Q2 2018

Q3 2018

Q4 2018

Q1 2019

PV

<10kW 48.4 49.6 50.6 51.7 52.8 53.8 54.2 55.9 57 58 59.1 60.1 61.1

10 - 50kW 16.5 17 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.6 18.7 19.4 19.8 20.3 20.7 21.1 21.5

>50kW 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.4 17.1 17.6 18 18.5 19 19.4

Wind

<50kW 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4

2.6. Current FiT rates

The UK Feed-in Tariff Rates for the period 2017 to 2019 are shown in Table 2-3. The rates shown in Table 2-3 are for the generation tariff. Table 2-3 shows the export payments for, which can be received additionally, for electricity which is fed into the grid.

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Table 2-3 FiT Rates in the UK for the period 2017/18-2018/19

2017/2018 [p/kWh] 2018/2019 [p/kWh]

Type Tariff

Description PV Tariff

Level

1 A

pr

to 3

0

Ju

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PV

≤10kW

Higher 4.14 4.07 4 3.93 3.85 3.78 3.71 3.64

Middle 3.73 3.66 3.6 3.54 3.47 3.4 3.34 3.28

Lower 0.48 0.43 0.38 0.34 0.3 0.24 0.19 0.14

10kW<x≤50kW

Higher 4.36 4.29 4.22 4.15 4.08 4.01 3.95 3.87

Middle 3.92 3.86 3.8 3.74 3.67 3.61 3.56 3.48

Lower 0.48 0.43 0.38 0.34 0.3 0.24 0.19 0.14

50kW<x≤250kW

Higher 1.99 1.94 1.89 1.82 1.78 1.72 1.68 1.62

Middle 1.79 1.75 1.7 1.64 1.6 1.55 1.51 1.46

Lower 0.48 0.43 0.38 0.34 0.3 0.24 0.19 0.14

250kW<x≤1MW 1.63 1.59 1.54 1.48 1.44 1.37 1.33 1.28

Wind ≤ 50kW 8.39 8.33 8.26 8.19 8.13 8.06 7.98 7.92

CHP ≤ 2kW 13.95 13.95 13.95 13.95 13.95 13.95 13.95 13.95

Table 2-3 shows the Feed-in Tariff rates in the UK, the rates for each consecutive term are determined by using degression and inflation rates. The adjustments on the FiT rates and caps on gross new-build power in year are explained above. PV Tariff Levels (Low, Medium and High) represent differing tariffs which are available if preliminary conditions are met. High rates can be obtained for achieving an Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) of level D or above before the commissioning date, and the owner does not own more than 25 installations. Medium rates can be obtained for achieving an EPC of level D or above, and the owner does have more than 25 installations. Low rates are provided if an EPC of level D or above is not achieved before commissioning. EPC is a certificate about the energy efficiency and the environmental impact of a property, with ranking from A (most efficient) to G (least efficient).

Table 2-4 PV Export Tariff Rates - 2010 to present

Export

Description Applicable Date Tariff (p/kWh)

Non-Solar PV 01/04/2010 – 30/11/2012 3.57

01/12/2012 – Present Date 5.03

Solar PV 01/04/2010 – 31/07/2012 3.57

01/08/2012 – Present Date 5.03

Table 2-4 shows the Export Tariff for PV installations, this tariff is provided in addition to the generation tariff. The export tariff is only provided for electricity which is fed into the grid. Figures are presented in cash terms.

Table 2-5 shows the range of FiT rates for each capacity band for the start of the FiT rate period 2018/2019. The values are shown in GBP and HK$.

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Table 2-5 Average FiT Rates for the period 2018/19

Type Capacity GBP [p/kWh] HK$ [cent/kWh]

Low Average High Low Average High

PV

≤ 10kW 0.34 2.60 3.93 3.50 26.78 40.48

10kW < x ≤ 50kW

0.34 2.74 4.15 3.50 28.22 42.75

50kW < x ≤ 250kW

0.34 1.26 1.82 3.50 12.98 18.75

250kW < x ≤ 1MW

1.48 15.24

Wind ≤ 50kW 8.19 91.77

CHP (gas) ≤ 2kW 13.95 143.69

Table 2-5 shows the average Feed-in Tariff for different technologies and capacity bands set for the start of the FiT period 2018/19. The values have been converted in Hong Kong Dollars using a conversion rate of 1GBP = 10.3 HK$ as at 16/11/2017 (source: https://www.oanda.com/fx-for-business/historical-rates).

Table 2-6 below provides an indication of the FiT rates shown in Table 2-5 against the latest average residential consumption tariff. For installations below 10kW this provides a good indication of the contribution of the FiT revenue to the residential consumption. Installations above 10kW are more applicable to commercial environments and therefore a commercial/business tariff should be used as comparison. However, for simplicity the figures have been provided to EMSD against a single residential tariff for indicative purposes only.

Table 2-6 Comparison of average FiT rates for the start of the period 2018/2019 against the current average residential tariff

Technology Capacity Average FiT rate

[p/kWh] Residential tariff

[p/kWh]1

FiT rate / residential tariff

Solar PV

≤ 10kW 2.60

12.02

~0.2

10kW < x ≤ 50kW 2.74 ~0.2

50kW < x ≤ 250kW 1.26 ~0.1

250kW < x ≤ 1MW 1.48 ~0.1

Wind ≤ 50kW 8.19 ~0.7

CHP (gas) ≤ 2kW 13.95 ~1.2

Note 1: Based on average annual economy 7 tariff across UK regions and across payment types (direct debit, standard credit and pre-pay meters). Data from BEIS, table

2.2.2, Average annual domestic electricity bills for UK countries, published on 21/12/2017, available at https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/annual-

domestic-energy-price-statistics (accessed 6/2/18). These figures are presented in cash terms and not in real terms.

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2.7. Benefits and drawbacks

The FiT rate scheme in the UK has both aspects that are recommended and effective, as well as others which create complexity or are ineffective.

The positives of the regime include:

Deployment Caps:

- Deployment Caps allow a set value of total capacity of installations for revalidating the FiT rates. This total capacity limit, or cap, allows the scheme administrators to reopen an LCOE evaluation of the technologies which exceed or significantly fall below their cap. This allows any sudden changes in the CAPEX of installations to be corrected for in the scheme without creating unproportionate benefits to scheme customers.

Rate of Return or Return on Investment is included

- The inclusion of an agreed rate of return on investment in the LCOE model for calculating initial FiT rates provides an incentive for customers to buy into the scheme, promoting the development of renewable energy sources (RES).

Division of Individual Technologies by Capacity

- The division of FiT rates for a specific technology by capacity allows more agreeable rates to be given to customers. The higher ratio of CAPEX to amount of electricity generated of smaller installations and lower deployment rates creates a requirement for higher rates which is provided by the UK regime.

Coordination with other Government Schemes

- The FiT scheme is developed to coordinate with other government schemes, the most apparent being the ‘warm home’ scheme. PV installations which are electrically connected to buildings with an achieved minimum efficiency rating receive higher FiT rates that those which do not.

Degression and Inflation

- Both Degression and Inflation are accounted for in the UK FiT regime. This means that recalculation of FiT rates for each new period is simple. As the agreed degression factor is applied followed by inflation. The use of inflation allows changes in economy to be accounted for future rates.

The negatives of the regime include:

Varying Rates within Technology and Capacity Bands

- The use of three different rates for PV installations within the same capacity band adds complexity to the scheme. The differing rates are in place to account for economies of scale and coincide with other government schemes. Although the reasoning for the differing values is sensible, the benefits of including them have not been shown.

Generation assumptions

- The initial FiT rates were determined using an assumed on-site consumption for the LCOE model. This allows customers to either benefit or receive disproportionate penalties for not aligning to the predicted value. Those customers which are able to consume more than the predicted on-site percentage would benefit both from bill savings and export costs, whereas those customers which do not achieve the on-site demand would have less than predicted bill savings whilst also exporting energy into the grid which they would not be given payment for.

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3. Feed-in Tariff Rates for Germany

3.1. Reasoning for FiT introduction

FiT rates were adopted in Germany to meet both national and EU renewable energy and emissions targets. The German regime has proven very successful in meeting the forecast targets.

3.2. FiT development and history

FiT was adopted in Germany in 1991 making Germany the first European country to implement this scheme. The feed-in tariff system in Germany has been modified frequently since. The original tariff was a percentage (between 75-90% depending on technologies considered) based on the retail rate of electricity, however, the tariff price did not account for electricity price fluctuations nor was the incentive high enough to cover costs of solar PV projects. In 2000 Germany altered the FiT to cost-based models which used an LCOE approach with a set rate of return through the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG 2000). This same method has adopted and adapted by many other countries which followed the example set out by Germany along with Denmark. This act has since been revised a number of times for several reasons such as policy changes to the renewable targets, readjustment of FiT rates to take into account deployment and cost of PV panels (specifically following a sharp drop in 2009), changes to the rights of renewable generation plants w.r.t system operators, addition of eligible technologies e.g. geothermal power, introduction of market premium for direct sales of electricity generated through RES (not through FiTs) etc.

A substantial reform was carried out for the EEG 2014 which was implemented on 1 August 2014. Under EEG 2014 most new renewable power plants do not receive fixed feed-in tariffs. Only plants commissioned after 31 December 2015 with an installed capacity of less than 100 kW are now eligible for FiTs. The EEG 2014 stipulates that financial support for renewable energy sources shall be determined through auctions by 2017 at the latest, i.e. renewable electricity generators are obliged to sell directly through auctions. They obtain support in the form of market premiums from the grid operator the installation is connected to, paid on top of the market price for electricity, substantially covering the gap to the feed-in tariff amount. The published FiT rates therefore act as a cap. The market premiums are determined by reference to the feed-in tariff amounts. The tendering process is carried out by the Federal Grid Agency (Bundesnetzagentur - BNetzA) who also set the volumes for eligible technologies.

Additionally, specific deployment corridors stipulate the extent to which renewable energy is to be expanded in the future. To ensure compliance with the corridors, so-called “breathing caps” have been introduced for solar, onshore wind and biomass. The breathing cap concept adjusts the feed-in tariffs depending on the extent to which newly installed capacity is in line with the corridors. This means that financial support for onshore wind power and biomass under the new EEG is reduced quarterly (not annually) as of 2016 and can increase or decrease if growth exceeds or falls below the corridor targets.

Table 3-1 Average1 FiT Rates for all technologies in 1991

Technology FiT rate [EURc/kWh]2 Residential tariff FiT rate/Retail price

Wind, solar 8.50 9.43 ~1

Biomass up to 5 MW 7.06 9.43 ~1

Hydro, landfill and sewage station methane up to 0.5 MW

7.06 9.43 ~1

Note 1: Calculated in cash terms as a simple average of the FiT rates applicable to the same technology across different capacities for which FiTs are offered

Note 2: Assuming 1DM = 0.51 EUR

Note 3: Based on FiT rate and FiT rate/Retail price.

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3.3. LCOE assumptions

An LCOE model is performed and evaluated every 4 years, this model is used for assessing the FiT rates in place and is part of the process for the determining of initial FiT rates set. The LCOE calculates the Net Present Value of the technology and converts it into annualised payments.

3.4. Technologies and eligibility criteria

The technologies which are now covered by the scheme are:

Wind energy (onshore and offshore);

Solar radiation energy;

Geothermal energy;

Hydropower;

Energy from biomass, biomethane landfill gas and sewage treatment gas as well as biologically biodegradable waste from household and industry.

The technologies covered aims to increase renewable energy installations which are available to smaller customers for individual and business purposes.

Energy from biogas is eligible only if the electricity is generated through CHP. The operator of the plant has to prove that the plant meets this requirement.

Payments for the deployment of RES are given upon successful bids at auction, specific rules of tenders are set by technology. Rules of tender typically cover limitations on number of tenders per year or total installed capacity, as well as price ceilings for payments. The payment of FiT based on the gross amount of electricity generated by the installation, is made only for calendar months in which installation operators feed electricity into a grid system and make it available to the grid system.

Installation operators which claim the FiT payment:

1. Must make available to the grid system operator all of the electricity generated in the installation which

a) Is not consumed in the immediate vicinity of the installation and

b) Is fed through a grid system.

2. May not participate in the balancing energy market with this installation.

Gross payment is given for eligible technologies in Germany, as such customers are provided with reimbursement for the total electricity generated by the installation.

Public and government buildings fitted with eligible installations are eligible for participation in the FiT regime.

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3.5. Adjustment of FiT rates

The base rate of degression applied at the beginning of each calendar month compared with the previous calendar month is 0.5% equating to a yearly degression rate of around 5%. The reduction rate is varied depending on the gross new-build capacity of PV installations. If the technology cap is exceeded or the capacity falls significantly below the cap, then the base degression rate will be superseded by the degression rates shown below:

For annualised gross new-build of solar installations exceeding the amount of 2500MW:

By up to 1000MW, to 1%,

By more than 1000MW, to 1.4%,

By more than 2000MW, to 1.8%,

By more than 3000MW, to 2.2%,

By more than 4000MW, to 2.5%,

By more than 5000MW, to 2.8%.

For annualised gross new-build of solar installations falling below the amount of 2500MW:

By more than 200MW, to 0.25%,

By more than 400MW, to zero,

By more than 800MW, to zero; the values to be applied shall rise on a one-off basis by 1.5% on the first day of the respective quarter, or

By more than 1200MW, to zero; the values to be applied shall rise on a one-off basis by 3% on the first day of the respective quarter.

If the total capacity of solar installations entered into the register exceeds 52000MW then the value applied is zero for the next calendar month.

3.6. Current FiT rates

The FiT rate including contingency rates are shown in Table 3-2, these payment values are used for ceiling tariffs in the auction based system implemented in Germany.

Table 3-2 Maximum FiT Rates for PV Installations

Capacity [kW] FiT Rate [EUR (cent)/kW] Eligibility Requirements

≤ 10 12.70 General Requirements

≤ 40 12.36 General Requirements

≤ 750 11.09 General Requirements

≥ 750 8.91 General Requirements

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Table 3-3 FiT Rates for Other Renewable Energy Sources

Type Lower FiT Rate [EUR

(cent)/kW] Average FiT Rate [EUR

(cent)/kW] Higher FiT Rate [EUR

(cent)/kW]

Wind 4.66 6.52 8.38

CHP (biogas) 5.66 12.521 23.14

Note 1: The average FiT rate for CHP is an average for a combination of biogas sources (i.e. bio-waste, sewage gas etc.). The FiT rates for each source are a range,

the average value given is the average of the median value of these ranges.

The range of FiT Rates is shown in Table 3-4 below and is converted in HK$.

Table 3-4 Average FiT Rates Converted into HK$

Type Capacity EUR [cent/kWh] HK$ [cent/kWh]

Low Average High Low Average High

PV

≤ 10kW 12.70 117.48

≤ 40kW 12.36 114.33

≤ 750kW 11.09 102.58

≥ 750kW 8.91 82.42

Wind 4.66 6.52 8.38 43.11 60.31 77.52

CHP (biogas)

≤ 75kW 5.66 12.52 23.14 52.36 115.81 214.05

Table 3-4 shows the average Feed-in Tariff for different technologies and capacity bands. The values have been converted in Hong Kong Dollars using a conversion rate of 1EUR = 9.25HK$ as at 5/12/17 (https://www.oanda.com/fx-for-business/historical-rates).

Table 3-5 below provides an indication of the FiT rates shown in Table 3-4 against the latest average residential consumption tariff. For installations below 10kW this provides a good indication of the contribution of the FiT revenue to the residential consumption. Installations above 10kW are more applicable to commercial environments and therefore a commercial/business tariff should be used as comparison. However, for simplicity the figures have been provided to EMSD against a single residential tariff for indicative purposes only.

Table 3-5 Comparison of current average FiT rates against the current average residential tariff

Type Capacity Average FiT rate EUR

[cent/kWh] Average residential

tariff EUR [cent/kWh] Ratio FiT

rate/Residential tariff

PV

≤ 10kW 12.70

14.05

~1

≤ 40kW 12.36 ~1

≤ 750kW 11.09 ~0.8

≥ 750kW 8.91 ~0.6

Wind 6.52 ~0.5

CHP ≤ 75kW 12.52 ~1

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3.7. Additional information

FiT rates have been replaced in Germany with the use of public auctions with effect from 2017. The calculations for FiT rates are used to periodically set the ceiling values of payments for small scale renewable installations. The value of payments becomes market driven through auctions.

The FiT scheme, before being replaced by public auctions, underwent periodic reviews, the frequency of these reviews was determined by a number of criteria. Similar to the scheme in the UK, the reviews could be opened upon a ‘trigger’ when total capacity of installations would either fall greatly below or above the expected. A fixed time between periodic reviews is set to every 4 years, it appears however that reviews were completed more regularly during the introduction of the FiT scheme to allow the regime to be refined for the local market.

3.8. Benefits and drawbacks

The FiT scheme in Germany has been proven to be aggressively successful in incentivising the installation and build of renewable technologies to meet both climate and renewable energy targets set by the EU and German governments.

The FiT rate scheme in Germany has both aspects that are recommended and effective, as well as others which create complexity or are ineffective.

The positives of the regime include:

Deployment Caps

- The benefits of deployment caps are discussed in Section 2.7;

Degression

- The benefits of degression is discussed in Section 2.7;

Regular FiT Review;

- The FiT rates are regularly reviewed every 4 years, this allows rates to be compared to current market trends and unpredicted changes in CAPEX and retail price of electricity;

Market Driven Prices

- The current FiT regime combines a mixture of auction and FiTs utilised as a ceiling. The level of subsidy is up to the FiT ceiling is determined following the auctions. As such the payment amount is market driven and remains competitive whilst regulated to avoid unproportionate benefit.

The negatives of the regime include:

Multiple Contingent Degression Rates

- The use of contingent degression allows for the reaction to rapid changes in CAPEX of installations, however this benefit can be achieved with one singular degression rate applied to all levels in which technology caps are exceeded. The use of multiple rates of contingent degression increases complexity and creates confusion for customers and investors.

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4. Feed-in Tariff Rates for Taiwan

4.1. Reasoning for FiT introduction

Taiwan is aiming for 20% of their energy mix to be renewable by 2025. Taiwan uses FiT rates and bonuses for high efficiency technology as an incentive to reach this goal. The principles behind the setting, eligibility and qualifications for the FiT rates were contained in The Renewable Energy Development Act (REDA) which was passed in 2009 and set the initial FiT rates for 2010.

4.2. FiT development and history Figure 4-1 Formula for calculating FiT of renewable energy

The formula given above has been published by the Bureau of Energy (BOE) and shows what components are taken into consideration when calculating FiT rates in Taiwan. The definitions where available are given below:

Installation Cost

- Cost of installation for specific technology and technology band.

Capital Recovery Factor

- Formula is given above.

Annual Operation and Maintenance Expenses

- The annual value of OPEX.

Annual sale of Electricity

- This is understood to be retail rate of electricity for predicted amount of generated power by each technology and technology band

Weighted Average Cost of Capital

- WACC has been determined by BOE, the details of the determination are not published in the public domain.

Purchase Period

- Equivalent to the payback period, the eligible period for FiT payments is 20 years.

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Table 4-1 FiT Rates for technologies of interest in 2010 compared against residential tariff

Technology FiT rate [NTD/kWh] Residential tariff [NTD/kWh) FiT rate/Residential tariff

Solar PV (<20kW) 11.8 2.61

~4.5

Wind1 4.62 ~2

Note 1: Averaged value of FiT provided for installation with Low voltage ride through (LVRT) and non-LVRT systems

The regime in Taiwan is a combination of FiT rates and auctions. Installers bid for qualification under the FiT regime and bids are awarded between September to December every year for the signature of power purchase agreements guaranteeing a set price for the next 20 years. The FiT rates are ‘tariff ceilings’; bid prices are capped to a value equal to or less than the FiT rates. This creates a preferential treatment for projects which qualify for the FiT scheme, as these projects are guaranteed the highest possible rates. Some installations may be bid-exempted and bidding installers and the capacity of installation are determined by the Ministry of Economic Affairs.

The deployment cap as set out in REDA is a total capacity between 6,500MW and 10,000MW.

4.3. LCOE assumptions

A simplified LCOE model is used to calculate the value for FiT rates in the regime. The formula and assumptions are provided above.

4.4. Technologies and eligibility criteria

Solar (including floating), onshore and offshore wind, geothermal energy, biomass with and without anaerobic digester and hydropower are eligible for FiT payments in Taiwan. This has not changed since the beginning of the scheme in 2010.

For solar PV technology, eligible installations are:

Rooftop PV capacity between 1kW to 500kW

Floating and ground-mounted solar PV installations less than 1kW

For on-shore wind schemes eligible installations should have a capacity range between 1kW and 20kW.

CHP Biogas plants are not eligible for FiT payments in Taiwan.

Public and government buildings, both new and under renovation, qualify for FiT payments provided the above eligibility criteria is met.

4.5. Adjustment of FiT rates

The tariff rates are reviewed annually using the formula given above. There is no degression factor in place.

4.6. Current FiT rates

Gross payment is provided to customers. FiT payment is applied to the gross amount of generated electricity by the installation. The following table presents more detailed information about the planned revisions for solar PV in 2018.

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Table 4-2 Current and Planned solar PV FiT rates

Period Solar system

type Capacity

[kW] 2018 FiT rate [NTD/kWh]

2017 FiT rate [NTD/kWh]

Difference [%]

H1

Rooftop

≧1~<20 5.3848 6.1033 -11.77

≧20~<100 4.7906 4.9772 -3.75

≧100~<500 4.4564 4.5388 -1.82

≧500 4.3264 4.4098 -1.89

Ground-mounted ≧1 4.3785 4.5467 -3.70

Floating ≧1 4.7723 4.9403 -3.40

H2

Rooftop

≧1~<20 5.2827 6.1033 -13.45

≧20~<100 4.6885 4.9772 -5.80

≧100~<500 4.3636 4.5388 -3.86

≧500 4.2429 4.4098 -3.79

Ground-mounted ≧1 4.2943 4.5467 -5.55

Floating ≧1 4.6901 4.9403 -5.07

The FiT Rates applied to other renewable energy sources (RES) is shown in Table 4-3.

Table 4-3 FiT Rates for other RES in 2018

Type Capacity Lower FiT Rate

[NTD/kW] Median FiT Rate

[NTD/kW] Higher FiT Rate

[NTD/kW]

Wind (Onshore)

1-20kW None Given 8.51 None Given

CHP None Given

None Given None Given None Given

The FiT range for values in 2018 are given in Table 4-4 and converted to Hong Kong Dollars (HK$).

Table 4-4 FiT Rates in Taiwan converted into HK$

Type Capacity [NTD/kWh] [HK$ (cent)/kWh]

Low Average High Low Average High

PV

< 20kW 5.28 5.33 5.38 138 139 140

20kW ≤ x < 100kW

4.69 4.74 4.79 122 124 125

100kW ≤ x < 500kW

4.36 4.41 4.46 114 115 116

≥ 500kW 4.24 4.29 4.33 110 112 114

Ground Mounted

4.29 4.34 4.38 112 113 114

Floating 4.69 4.73 4.77 122 123 124

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Type Capacity [NTD/kWh] [HK$ (cent)/kWh]

Low Average High Low Average High

Wind 1 ≤ x ≤ 20kW

8.51 222

CHP

Table 4-4 shows the average Feed-in Tariff for different technologies and capacity bands. The values have been converted in Hong Kong Dollars using a conversion rate of 1NTD = 0.26HK$ as at 22/11/2017 (https://www.oanda.com/fx-for-business/historical-rates).

Table 4-5 below provides an indication of the average FiT rates shown in Table 4-4 against the latest available average residential consumption tariff. For installations below 10kW this provides a good indication of the contribution of the FiT revenue to the residential consumption. Installations above 10kW are more applicable to commercial environments and therefore a commercial/business tariff should be used as comparison. However, for simplicity the figures have been provided to EMSD against a single residential tariff for indicative purposes only.

Table 4-5 Comparison of average FiT rates for 2018 against the current average residential tariff

Type Capacity Average FiT rate

[NTD/kWh]

Average residential tariff

[NTD/kWh]

Ratio of average FiT rate/Average residential tariff

PV

< 20kW 5.33

2.47

~2

20kW ≤ x < 100kW 4.74 ~2

100kW ≤ x < 500kW 4.41 ~2

≥ 500kW 4.29 ~2

Ground Mounted 4.34 ~2

Floating 4.73 ~2

Wind 1 ≤ x ≤ 20kW 8.51 ~3.5

4.7. Additional information

The scheme in Taiwan was set to encourage small scale renewable projects, in particular PV installations. Figure 4-2 shows the distribution of PV projects in Taiwan for the period 2011-2014.

The key decisions of FiT scheme for PV projects for 2017 are as following:

PV projects for 2017 will not be awarded through project bids

Final rates will be 1.29% up from previous announcement

PV projects using high-efficiency PV modules will be favoured with a 6% FiT bonus

PV projects built in northern Taiwan will enjoy a 15% FiT bonus

PV projects built on islands will enjoy a 15% FiT bonus

FiT rate designed for floating PV projects is included

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Figure 4-2 Distribution of PV project sizes in Taiwan (2011 - Q2:2014)

Figure 4-2 shows that most PV installations in Taiwan were of larger capacity installations. A proposed reason for this is due to legal and administrative difficulties encountered by those in multi-unit residential buildings. This building type is common in Taiwan and the difficulties with ownership and access to building rooftops has hindered the FiT scheme. Another proposed reason is the limited availability of personal loans to finance small-scale PV systems, non-commercial customers do not have access to money required for initial project development.

4.8. Benefits and drawbacks

The FiT rate scheme in Taiwan has both aspects that are recommended and effective, as well as others which create complexity or are ineffective.

The positives of the regime include:

Simplified LCOE

- The use of an equation based on LCOE for setting FiT rates simplifies the initial calculations.

Use of FiT and Auctions

- The use of Auctions alongside FiT rates allows customers who do not meet the requirements in FiT to still benefit from renewable installations, however, this does increase scheme complexity.

Frequent FiT Review

- The FiT rates are reviewed annually, this allows rates to be compared to current market trends and unpredicted changes in CAPEX and retail price of electricity.

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The negatives of the regime include:

Formula for recalculation

- The use of a formula for recalculation of FiT rates gives the added benefit that FiT rates are within acceptable ranges, however, the use of a degression factor is far less complex and time intensive. It allows investors more clarity over future FiT rate levels as it is not dependent on other assumptions within an LCOE calculations

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5. Feed-in Tariff Rates for Japan

5.1. Reasoning for FiT introduction

The FiT scheme in Japan was introduced in 2012 to encourage renewable energy production with the help of all involved, including customers. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) in Japan held a special committee (Procurement Price Calculation Committee) for the determination of purchase prices (FiT) and the duration each would last. For residential PV installations, the facilities must meet specific criteria and obtain Certification of FiT Facilities.

Table 5-1 Comparison of Initial average1 FiT rates in 2012 against average residential tariff

Technology FiT rate [JPY/kWh] Average residential

tariff2 [JPY/kWh] FiT rate/ residential

tariff

Solar PV 39

22.01

~2

Wind 38.5 ~2

Biogas 39 ~2

Note 1: Calculated in cash terms as a simple average of the FiT rates applicable to the same technology across capacities for which FiT is offered

Note 2: Source: International Energy Agency (IEA) -2013

5.2. FiT development and history

Prior to the FiT scheme, the Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS) Law was introduced in 2003 which granted subsidies for renewable energy generation projects. This boosted Japan’s solar PV generation but when the subsidies for solar PV ceased in 2005 solar PV declined so another incentive was required. The RPS Law imposed an obligation on electricity utilities to use a certain amount of electricity from New Energy. In this context New Energy is renewable energy which has been generated by the utility itself or electricity purchased by the utility which is renewable. This scheme formed the basis of the new FiT scheme where a purchase price at which and guaranteed purchase period for which utilities will purchase renewable energy is determined. Both the guaranteed purchase price and purchase period are dependent on the RES technology.

Since the introduction of the FiT regime in 2012 and every fiscal year thereafter the Procurement Price Calculation Committee reviews the purchase price and duration. The incumbent electricity utility provider purchases renewable electricity from qualifying FiT installations based on these prices and for the determined duration. The Procurement Price Calculation Committee also determines a surcharge tariff (¥/kWh) added to the unit price of electricity billed to all consumers and is collected along with the electricity charges. This surcharge is used to pay for the renewable energy produced by qualifying FiT installations. The latest available surcharge rate (FY 2016 – i.e. from May 2016 to April 2017) is 2.25 yen/kWh.

The method used by the Procurement Price Calculation Committee to calculate the purchase price is not available in the public domain.

5.3. LCOE assumptions

It is not clear whether the FiT rates (purchase prices) under the Japanese regime are set using LCOE. However, some assumptions around the setting of purchase prices were published which includes consideration of installation costs, operational and maintenance costs and rates of returns varying by technology types and capacity with higher capacity PV and wind benefiting from higher rates of return. FiT rates are paid on net metered electricity generation to eligible installations by the incumbent electricity utility companies.

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5.4. Adjustment of FiT rates

Details of how the rates are adjusted are not available in the public domain. Purchase prices and surcharge rates are published annually by METI.

5.5. Technology and eligibility criteria

Technologies eligible for FiTs are solar PV, wind power, hydraulic power, geothermal and biomass. These have not changed since the start of the FiT regime. Biomass FiTs includes different types of biomass fuel including wood, waste, waste from building material etc. and biogas from methane fermentation. FiT payments are made over 20 years for all technologies except for solar PV with less than 10kW capacity for which the payments are made over 10 years.

METI has published information on the certification required to be eligible to apply for FiT.

Certification of FiT facilities – Common standards across all energy sources;

the facility must be capable of stably and efficiently generating electricity during the guaranteed period

the facility must be capable of transparently and fairly measuring the amount of the electricity produced from renewable energy that is supplied to the electric utility

the facility to be used for power generation must be specified in detail

maintenance system must be secured for the facility

the facility must have a structure that is capable of making proper measurements using a measuring instrument

the renewable energy producer must record and periodically submit the breakdown of the costs for installing the facility and the breakdown of annual fiscal costs for operating the system.

Solar PV specific standards;

A solar PV facility of less than 10kW must have received certification for conformity to JIS product standards or equivalent certification (certification by the Japanese Electrical Safety & Environment Technology Laboratories (JET) or equivalent certification by an overseas certification body).

A solar PV facility of less than 10kW must have wiring for supplying excess electricity (a wiring structure for first allocating the generated electricity to power consumption within the residence, and then supplying the remaining electricity to the electric utility).

When using the following types of solar panels, the power generation efficiency must be those respectively indicated for the following types:

- Mono- or polycrystal silicon – 13.5% or higher - Thin-film semiconductor – 7% or higher - Compound semiconductor – 8% or higher

The following requirements are imposed on the so-called “roof-lending business” (only such business with a total power output of 10kW or more):

- Each residence must have wiring for supplying the electricity directly to the electric utility - The roof-lending contract document must be attached.

Wind power specific standards;

A small wind power facility of under 20kW, which could also be installed in residences, must have received certification for conformity to Japanese Industrial Standards Committee (JIS) product standards (JISC1400-2) or equivalent certification (certification for conformity to standards formulated by the Japan Small Wind Turbines Association [JSWTA] or equivalent certification by an overseas certification body).

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5.6. Current FiT rates

The FiT rates in Japan for solar PV are shown in Table 5-2.

Table 5-2 Purchase Prices per kWh - Solar

Purchase Prices [JPY/kWh] (tax excl)

FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019

Less than 10kW 38 37 33 31 29 27 25

Less than 10kW (+energy storage system)

31 30 35 33 26 26 25

10kW or more 36 32 29 24 21 - -

Table 5-3 Current Solar PV FiT Rates in HK$

Current and Future FiT Rates [HK$ (cent)/kWh]

2017 2018 2019

Less than 10kW 203 189 175

Less than 10kW (+energy storage

system) 182 182 175

10kW or more 147 - -

The table above shows the average Feed-in Tariff for different technologies and capacity bands. The values have been converted in Hong Kong Dollars using a conversion rate of 100JPY = 7HK$ as at 10.1.2018 (https://www.oanda.com/fx-for-business/historical-rates).

Table 5-4 Purchase Prices per kWh - Biogas

Purchase Prices [JPY/kWh] (tax excl)

FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016

Biogas 39 39 39 39 39

Values for current biogas tariffs (FY 2017) were not available in the public domain but it was assumed that it has remained at 39JPY/kWh which is equivalent to 2.92HK$/kWh.

There are other published FiT rates for biomass that include municipal waste and agricultural residues but this has not been included as the vales have remained the same since FY2012.

Table 5-5 Purchase Prices per kWh - Wind

Purchase Prices [JPY/kWh] (tax excl)

FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016

Less than 20kW 55 55 55 55 55

Values for current wind tariffs (FY 2017) was not available in the public domain but it was assumed that it has remained at 55JPY/kWh which is equivalent to 3.85HK$/kWh.

Table 5-6 below provides an indication of the FiT rates shown in

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5.8. Benefits and drawbacks

The regime in Japan does not offer sufficient clarity for investment decisions especially for taking into account the long-term revenues from FiT installations since the method of setting current and future FiTs is not published within the public domain. However, it is stated that under the FiT scheme, if a renewable energy producer requests an electric utility to sign a contract to purchase electricity at a fixed price and for a long-term period as guaranteed by the government, the electric utility is obligated to accept this request.

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6. Feed-in Tariffs for Australia

6.1. Reasoning for FiT introduction

FiT rates, for residential solar PV, were introduced as a financial incentive to help lower pollution, provide economic benefit and reduce line losses and costs of transmission and distribution for supplying electricity from remote centralised generation. The capacity limits are included in Section 6.4. No state in Australia currently offers FiT rates for large scale projects e.g. wind farms or industrial-scale solar plants.

6.2. FiT development and history

FiT mechanisms for Australia are set independently across the 8 states. We have chosen to look at New South Wales in more detail under the assumption all governing bodies use the same general considerations when setting FiT rates. FiTs are only provided for PV technology. Table 6-1 below shows the available information for initial FiT rates in each of the 8 states.

Table 6-1 Initial FiT rates

State Year Initial Rate Paid

(AUD c/kWh)

Victoria 2009 60

South Australia 2008 54

Australian Capital Territory 2009 50.05

Tasmania Not Available Not Available

Northern Territory Not Available 19.23

Western Australia 2010 40

Queensland 2008 44

New South Wales 2010 60

The average residential consumption tariff in Australia in 2010 for comparison with the initial rate paid was 21.55 c/kWh. The ratio of initial FiT rate for NSW to the average residential consumption tariff in 2010 was about 3.

The New South Wales Government enlisted the Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal (IPART) to provide a fair and reasonable benchmark range of FiT. This benchmark considered payment for generation only and excluded distribution infrastructure costs and other costs involved in electricity metering and administration.

Four components were considered to calculate this range. The factors considered were forecast average wholesale price of electricity, solar premium, loss factor and National Electricity Market (NEM) fees and charges.

The solar premium is estimated using half-hourly PV export data from customers. The premium is calculated as the ratio of the solar output-weighted electricity price to the time-weighted electricity price. The solar PV output-weighted electricity price is the average electricity price across the year weighted by how much electricity generated by solar PV is exported at the time. The Time-weighted electricity price is the average electricity price across the year.

The loss factor is an estimated factor used to account for the value of avoided losses. Transmission and distribution of electricity results in losses; as PV exports are consumed close to point of generation losses associated to the distribution of this generation is the avoided. Loss factor is calculated as MLF x DLF where MLF is transmission line losses and DLF is distribution loss factors for the customer.

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NEM fees and charges are the fees paid to NEM system operator by retailers. It depends on how much electricity is traded on the national electricity market.

The FiT rate is calculated using the following formula:

Total = Forecast average price x Solar premium x Loss factor + NEM fees and charges.

The table below was taken from the June 2017 report on solar feed-in tariffs.

Table 6-2 Summary of the components in the benchmark range (2017-18)

Forecast

average price (AUD c/kWh)

Solar premium

Loss factor

NEM fees and charges

(AUD c/kWh)

Total (AUD c/kWh)

All times other than peak 11.01 1.06 1.01 0.08 11.9

Peak time (2-4pm) 11.01 1.34 1.01 0.08 15.0

All times 11.01 1.14 1.01 0.08 12.8 Source: IPART.

6.3. LCOE assumptions

Australian FiT regimes do not use LCOE in setting FiT rates so no assumption can be made.

6.4. Technologies and eligibility criteria

FiTs are only provided for PV technology under the NSW scheme.

As each state has their own FiT mechanisms the eligibility criteria differ for each state.

Information about eligibility criteria for participating in the New South Wales (NSW) FiT scheme was not available in the public domain, and participation is limited to residential installations with commercial and public installations not included. The table below shows the eligible capacities for each state.

Table 6-3 Solar PV Capacities Eligible for FiT in Australia

State Maximum Size

Victoria Less than 100kW

South Australia First 45kWh per day

Australian Capital Territory N/A

Tasmania 10kW – single phase

30kW – three phase

Northern Territory Systems up to 4.5kW can be connected without inspection

Western Australia Size limit varies by location and

retailer

Queensland 5kW

New South Wales Depends on retailer

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6.5. Adjustment of FiT rates

In the case of New South Wales, the FiT rate is based on forecast wholesale market prices of electricity therefore the rates are adjusted yearly in accordance with the forecasts made.

6.6. Current FiT rate

Australian FiT schemes are controlled separately by each state. This results in comparison with the other countries proving complicated as direct comparisons cannot be made. Each state has its own process for setting and reviewing their FiT rates and each uses a different body for completing reviews.

Table 6-4 Current FiT rates for Australian states

State Current Rate Paid (AUDc/kWh)

Victoria 11.3

South Australia 6.8

Australian Capital Territory 7.5

Tasmania 6.671

Northern Territory 19.23

Western Australia 7.135

Queensland 7.448

New South Wales 7.2

Table 6-5 shows the statistical range and average for FiT rates in Australia, the outliers and have been determined using Quartile range and have been excluded from the data presented in the table. Table 6-5 also provides an indication of the FiT rates against the latest average residential consumption tariff. For installations below 10kW this provides a good indication of the contribution of the FiT revenue to the residential consumption. Installations above 10kW are more applicable to commercial environments and therefore a commercial/business tariff should be used as comparison. However, for simplicity the figures have been provided against a single residential tariff for indicative purposes only.

Table 6-5 Current average FiT rates for Australia

Statistics Ignoring Outliers [AUDc/kWh]

HK$/kWh1

Average residential tariff

[AUDc/kWh]

FiT rate/Average residential tariff

Min Value 6.67 0.4

29

~0.2

Mean 7.13 0.42 ~0.3

Max Value 7.50 0.44 ~0.3

Note 1: 1HK$ = 0.169 AUD (13/12/2017 - https://www.oanda.com/fx-for-business/historical-rates)

6.7. Additional information

As each state sets the FiT mechanism, some schemes provide revenue based on gross and others on net meter readings. A uniform federal scheme to supersede state schemes has been proposed but not yet enacted. New South Wales and Australian Capital Territory both had previously gross FiT but these were replaced with net.

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6.8. Benefits and drawbacks

The FiT system in Australia is different from other jurisdictions reviewed. The regimes in Australia do not use LCOE or degression rates to determine and reset FiT rates. They concentrate on financial benefit to retailers and the fees and charges applied by National Electricity Market (NEM) as components in calculating FiT rates. We do not recommend using their methods and processes as these are very different from standard international practice.

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7. Summary of reviews

7.1. FiT rates

Table 7-1 below shows the FiT rates across the reviewed jurisdictions for the technologies of interest. Where available and published the FiT rates presented here and in the equivalent tables under Sections 2 to 6 are applicable to the start of 2018. Where this is not available the latest available published FiT rates have been provided. Note that the reviewed jurisdictions provide FiTs for other technologies which have not been included in the comparison table below.

Table 7-1 Compiled FiT rates across reviewed jurisdictions presented in HKc

Technology Capacity UK

(HKc/kWh) Germany

(HKc/kWh) Taiwan

(HKc/kWh)

Japan

(HKc/kWh)

Australia (HKc/kWh)

PV

< 10kW 26.8 117.48 1396 18911

4213 <200kW 20.61 N/A5 1157

147

>200kW 15.22 102.6 1128

Wind < 10kW 91.83 60.31 2229 385 N/A14

CHP (gas) <10kW 143.74 115.81 N/A10 N/A12

Note 1: The UK provides FiT rates for capacity 10kW < x ≤ 50kW and 50kW < x ≤ 250kW. An average has been used in this case for capacity < 200kW

Note 2: Based on UK rate for capacity > 250kW

Note 3: Based on UK rate for capacity < 50kW

Note 4: Based on UK rate for capacity < 2kW

Note 5: Germany FiT rates are provided for capacity <750kW. The difference in capacity is considered too large to be applicable to the PV capacities of <200kW.

Note 6: Based on Taiwan rate for capacity <20kW

Note 7: Based on Taiwan rate for capacity < 500kW

Note 8: Based on Taiwan rate for capacity >500kW

Note 9: Based on Taiwan rate for capacity <20Kw

Note 11: Based on FiT rates excluding storage

Note 13: Average across 8 states

Notes 10, 12, 14: Regimes does not cover technology

Table 7-2 below shows a high-level comparison of the ratio of initial FiT rates to average residential electricity tariff compared to ratio of latest available FiT rate to average current residential electricity tariff. For a more useful comparison we recommend that the ratio uses the FiT rate for residential installations (i.e. small scale with capacity <10 or 20 kW depending on jurisdiction) to provide an indication of the contribution of FiT revenue to electricity demand cost. Where in particular jurisdictions the FiT rates are subdivided for the same technology (e.g. in the UK where low, medium and high values are available for the same capacity) an average value is used. We also note that there are a number of residential tariffs and products within each jurisdiction. An average residential tariff has therefore been used. Further information on how these are calculated is provided in the respective Sections 2 to 6 of this report. We note that no specific trend can be drawn from these ratios. FiT revenues for specific technologies have increased or decreased since start of the respective FiT regimes as a result of several factors such as economic, political and policy intent, CAPEX decrease etc. This further highlights that the setting of FiT rates is specific to the local market requirements.

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Table 7-2 Ratio of initial FiT rates across reviewed jurisdictions to residential tariff compared to ratio of latest available FiT rate to residential tariff

Jurisdictions Year of first

launch Technology

Ratio of initial FiT rate to residential tariff at the year of

first launch

Latest available FiT rate / current residential tariff

rate

UK 2010

PV ~4 ~0.2

Wind ~1 ~0.7

CHP (gas) ~3.5 ~1.2

Germany 1991

PV ~1 ~1

Wind ~1 ~0.5

CHP (biogas)

~1 ~1

Taiwan 2010 PV ~4.5 ~2

Wind ~2 ~3.5

Japan 2012

PV ~2 ~1

Wind ~2 ~2

Biomass ~2 ~1.5

Australia 2010 PV ~3 ~0.3

As shown above the range of FiTs from the reviews vary largely. The variation in FiT levels is owing to the differences in the method of determination such as the underlying LCOE modelling of the capital investment and operational costs (implicitly the assumed costs of materials, labour, expected rate of return, tax, insurance, uptake of renewable technology, etc.) and other factors such as policy considerations and acceptable level of incentivisation of RE within individual jurisdiction as well as the maturity of the FiT regime. As such it is therefore not possible for us to draw direct comparison with the FiT levels of other jurisdictions although useful practice and lessons can be learnt from these regimes. The initial determination of FiT rates relies on multiple assumptions and non-local data, which may not accurately represent the local market. However, lessons can be learnt in the implementation and approaches to setting FiTs. We have incorporated these lessons learnt in our LCOE modelling highlighted in Sections 8 and 9 of this report.

7.2. Implementation and changes to FiT rates

Jurisdictions which have employed LCOE modelling as the basis for setting FiT rates, such as Germany and the UK, provide transparency and certainty of investment for generators.

To account for the variation in prices, inflation can be applied to LCOE values. In most jurisdictions the FiT value is simply adjusted by the recorded or predicted inflation values for the specific economic region. It is a choice of the regulator whether to vary the FiT rate based on CPI, RPI or another suitable index.

Varying trends in CAPEX are accounted for either applying a degression value to FiT payments or by periodic review of the schemes.

Degression is determined by one of two approaches; derivations of CAPEX reduction curves incorporated into the LCOE model or the application of international values of degression determined from research of FiT regimes. The effectiveness of applying a CAPEX reduction curve is limited by the availability of input data. Applying a degression from international review has the benefit of providing degression rates developed in already mature schemes although the values still retain the risk of being unrepresentative for the local market. The results of the two methods are typically within satisfactory bound of confidence.

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The alternative method is to adopt periodic reviews of the scheme to determine whether current FiT rates are acceptable for new installations applying into the scheme. The implementation of periodic reviews, instead of a degression rate, removes the assumptions made in setting the level of degression. It is important however that the frequency of the reviews is reasonable as reviewing too frequently creates unnecessary work and investor uncertainty, whilst not frequently enough risks FiT rates being unrepresentative of the market in-between the review windows. This provides the added benefit of having reviews already in place in the case of unforeseen changes regarding other assumptions made in determining the FiT rates for installations. In some jurisdictions a deployment cap is used (based on either a cap on overall RES generation level or maximum budget for FiT subsidies) to set a threshold for reviewing of FiT levels. This method also ensures that the FiT rates are reviewed to avoid over or under compensation for investors.

7.2.1. Consideration of metering approach in LCOE calculations

RES installations normally have two revenue streams:

1. Feed-in-tariff;

2. Avoided electricity retail tariff (residential/retail/industrial tariffs).

It is therefore important to consider the approach for metering demand and generation when carrying out an LCOE model for such installations.

FiTs paid on net metered amount exported to the grid:

This is where FiT rates are paid on net metered output. The customer consumes the electricity that is generated on the premises. If the customer needs more electricity, it is drawn from the grid, incurring normal electricity fees. If the customer is consuming less electricity than their system is generating, then the surplus is exported to the grid and earns the FiT rate for each exported kWh.

If FiT is paid using a net-metering approach, then the generator is paid only on the electricity exported to the grid. This means that if a generator exports all output to the grid, it can expect the returns targeted by a particular FiT level. If electricity retail tariffs are higher for the site than the FiT, the generator can increase returns by using some electricity for on-site demand. If retail tariffs are lower than the FiT, the generator would decrease returns by using electricity generated for on-site consumption.

When this model is implemented, the LCOE driving the FiT levels does not need to consider assumptions on site demand providing better accuracy. This model is deemed to reduce the risk of customer loss or exploitation of FiT scheme but requires monitoring of electricity which is fed into the grid which may require the installation of a separate meters for generation and consumption or a smart meter. However, this model does not provide benefits other than bill savings to those who choose to use all generated electricity on-site, and as such they may not recover investments costs (particularly applicable to ‘off-the-grid’ customers applying to the scheme). This model therefore provides less incentives for investment in RES. Calculation of overall revenue for investors is also more complex.

FiTs paid on rated capacity of the installation (gross generation):

There are several ways of achieving a gross generation approach.

A possible model is where all electricity produced by the generator is exported to the grid. The generator earns the FiT rate for every kilowatt hour (kWh) of electricity exported and pays the normal fee for every kWh they draw from the grid. This may require different metering points and connections to the grid for the generation installation and the main supply point or smart metering. The LCOE calculations in such a model is greatly simplified as only the revenue from the FiTs needs to be considered.

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Another approach is where the generator is paid FiT on its rated capacity but the RES installation also services the on-site demand. In this case the investor receives FiT for the entire plant output, as well as the avoided retail costs. This means that a generator with on-site demand would earn higher revenues than a generator without on-site demand for the same FiT level since the former benefits from both FiT revenues and savings on retail price of electricity. To address this in the LCOE calculations underpinning the FiT levels, a predicted percentage of on-site consumption is included into the calculation of the FiT. This is the approach applied in the UK. However, this value would be a fixed assumption, whereas in reality the quantity can be varied by the customer. As we have analysed in Section 7.2 with regard to the UK experience, installations which are able to consume more than the assumed onsite consumption percentage will benefit from bill savings and FiT revenue streams above those estimated in the LCOE assessment and generate higher rates of returns. Installations that however consume less than the assumed onsite consumption percentage will be at a disadvantage. A further evolution of this approach is the payment of FiTs for gross electricity generated and an export tariff payment for electricity fed to the grid. As explained in Section 2, the LCOE for this approach, must include revenue streams from both tariffs as to provide a suitable level of payment for each. As such the initial calculation of the tariff payments is more complicated than for the other implementation methods.

Generally, the gross generation approach provides a simpler way to calculate the revenue generated and better encouragement for investment as it can be independent of customer usage (particularly for situations where generation would likely be smaller than consumption at the same premises).

7.2.2. Other observations

No jurisdictions have included biodiesel in the technologies for which FiTs are provided. The eligible technologies for the receiving of FiT rate payments within the jurisdictions reviewed vary, whether the variation be on technology type or by the capacity of the installations eligible. Table 7-3 summarises the eligible technologies related to the intended FiT technologies for Hong Kong within each jurisdiction, the type of payment and scheme length for each technology is additionally included.

Table 7-3 Eligible Technologies for Jurisdictions Reviewed

Jurisdiction Technology Type of Payment Length of Scheme

(years)

UK PV Gross 25

Wind Gross 20

CHP

(Biogas) Gross 10

Germany PV Gross 20

Wind Gross 20

CHP

(Biogas) Gross 20

Taiwan PV Gross 20

Wind Gross 20

Japan PV Gross 20 (101)

Wind Gross 20

Biomass Gross 20

Australia PV (Varies by state) (Varies by state)

Note 1: For capacity < 10kW

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Some jurisdictions publish relative assumptions review and consultation. Allowing a public consultation which may include stakeholders such as the general public utility companies, environmental agencies, consumer groups, suppliers and manufacturers of renewable generation technologies and investors in renewable generation provides an insight into whether the scheme will be favourable once implemented, including whether assumptions such as cost assumptions are suitable for the local market.

The success of the FiT scheme can be monitored by the increase in total capacity of installed installations which applied to the scheme. The installed capacity is usually split under the same technology and capacity bands of the FiT rates in order that each rate can be assessed. A benchmark total capacity can be used to compare the installed capacities, while providing indication as to how the FiT rates may need adjusted.

The effectiveness of future reviews of the scheme relies heavily on the management in-between review periods. If cost data for all installations within the FiT scheme is recorded then the resetting of an LCOE (if required) can be done with data which is representative of the local market.

It is important that installations are regulated, as such the employment of clear standards and requirements for equipment and installation for the technologies provides clarity on what is required for an installation to be eligible for payment.

7.3. Additional areas considered

In addition to the specific areas described in Section 7 above, we also carried out a review of various factors fundamental to LCOE modelling and FiT calculations. These are technology lifespan and load factors.

7.3.1. Technology lifespan

The technical/operational lifespan of the renewable energy installations under the FiT schemes are not equal to the time of the FiT payment period, usually the payment period is less (either significantly or marginally). Typical operational lifespans for the different technologies are given below:

Table 7-4 Summary of technology lifespan

Technology

Lifespan [years]

ARUP/GOV.UK

International Renewable

Energy Agency IRENA

National Renewable

Energy Laboratory

NREL

Manufacturers datasheets

ATKINS/BARINGA Recommended Range

Onshore wind 20-25 20-25 14-20 20-30 20-25

Solar PV 25 25-30 33 17-35 25-30

CHP 22-25 20-25 28 25-30 20-25

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7.3.2. Load factors

The load factor of an installation is the ratio (expressed as a percentage) of its actual electrical energy output over a given period of time to the maximum possible electrical energy output over the same amount of time. The maximum possible energy output of a given installation assumes its continuous operation at full nameplate capacity over the relevant period of time. The actual energy output over the same period of time varies greatly depending on a range of factors. These can be efficiency, weather conditions, location, downtime for maintenance, reliability etc.

Typical load factors in percentage terms, for different technologies are given in Table 7-5 below and were used in comparison with manufacturer datasheets from technologies available in the HK market to determine the load factors utilised in the LCOE model.

Table 7-5 Summary of load factors (in percentage terms)

Technology

Department of

Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy

BEIS (2017)

IRENA US

department of Energy

Renewable energy policy

network

International Energy agency

World Energy

Resources

European commission

Average

Onshore wind 24.6% 20%- 23%

31% 24.3% 23% 16.5%-28.1%

23.8%

Solar PV 10% 14% 16.6% 11.0%-23.0% 12.8%

CHP1 80%-90%

62.3% 80% 78%

Note 1: Excluded as real published load factors from BEIS are based on meter readings. In this case will not represent the efficiency of the CHP plant as these are used

intermittently

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8. LCOE modelling

The Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE) is a measure of the annual average revenue required by a project to recover costs and make a return on capital invested, for a given set of cost assumptions. As described in earlier sections of the report, the LCOE for various technologies is often considered in setting feed-in tariffs. However, it is important to note that the LCOE is one of multiple considerations, and therefore LCOE is not a direct comparator for feed-in tariffs.

The LCOE model, detailed in the following section, calculates the real value in Hong Kong Dollars, HK$, at which the costs of capital plus any O&M are covered within the set payback period (10 years). As the model considers only real values, FiT rates for future years can be interpreted by a number of ways. The methods for adjusting FiT rates are described below.

The LCOE model included in this report calculates the levelised cost of electricity for three different sizes of PV technology (<10kW, <200kW and 200kW-1MW), small scale wind turbines (<10kW) and CHP Biogas (up to 1MW). Cost incurred (CAPEX and OPEX) are discounted and divided by the total generation in MWh over a period of 10 years.

The model set up for our analysis includes the following cost components. The assumptions around each cost component for the different technologies and generation levels are explained further in Section 8.2.

Table 8-1 Description of considered cost components

Cost Component

Description

Generation equipment cost

Capital cost of the main generation equipment. For example, panels and inverter for solar PV, wind turbines (including blades and nacelle) for wind power, and

turbines and heat recovery systems for CHP.

Balance of Plant (BOP)

Capital cost which is not included in the main generation equipment. For example, additional civil or electrical works. Again, given the scale of the

installations considered is less than 1MW in capacity, this is not considered to be a significant cost component.

Development Expenditure

(Devex)

The costs required to develop a project, including permitting any licenses required and securing offtake or the Feed-in Tariff. Again, since the installations

considered in this report are less than 1MW in scale, development costs are lower than would be expected for projects of larger MW capacity.

Replacement CAPEX

Investment required for the replacement of RES installation components within the asset lifespan.

Fixed Operations and

Maintenance

Operational expenditure on an annual basis, which is not proportional to generation, including general cleaning and maintenance expenditure, etc.

Technology Insurance Cost

This model considers technology insurance which covers:

Construction insurance - third-party, damage or loss costs during construction phase

Ongoing third-party damage costs post construction

It should be noted that in some jurisdictions, such as in the UK, Business interruption insurance is also included. Business interruption insurance is usually

associated to large scale RES projects where it covers a portion or all of the revenues lost from the asset if it were not to be available to generate. This is

considered only for assets which are assumed to be owned by businesses with energy as a principle revenue stream.

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Cost Component

Description

Connection Costs

Cost associated with connection of a generation asset to the distribution network, if any.

Variable Operations and

Maintenance

Operational expenditure which is proportional to generation. This includes the cost of fuel for CHP considered, including the cost of production of biogas.

Additional costs Additional country specific costs such as Prescribed Buildings Professional

(PBP) / Prescribed Registered Contractor (PRC) employment cost.

It should be noted that additional cost analysis could be used to refine feed-in tariffs as the market develops in line with the approach of all reviewed jurisdictions.

8.1. Model Requirements

LCOE model:

All values in the LCOE model is to be presented in real terms. Fixed O&M costs, which are required to be on an increasing trend to reflect the inflationary adjustments, are discounted back to real terms;

WACC is set at 4% which is the real discount rate generally used by government works project in Hong Kong for 2018 – 2026;

The LCOE will be calculated over a 10-year period, taking into account discounted CAPEX; replacement CAPEX and O&M costs for the 10-year period only i.e. O&M costs and replacement CAPEX beyond the 10-year period are not included;

Insurance costs for installations is to include third party damage insurance only (construction and operation);

Heat revenues for CHP are not considered in the LCOE calculation.

Determination of FiT:

FiT rate to be decided after review of LCOE results and engagement with stakeholders;

FiT rate will be applied for a maximum of 15 years, at a rate set to be equal to the LCOE calculated over a 10-year period. We note that this means that over 15 years, the generators will see higher returns than WACC used for the LCOE calculation;

To avoid over or under compensation, FiT rates will be reviewed periodically at intervals to be determined by the regulating authority taking into account inflation, CAPEX and general market changes etc., therefore degression will not be applied;

FiT will be applied on gross metered generation. While customers will pay the prevailing tariff for all electricity consumed on-site, they will be eligible for FiT for all units of electricity generated by the installation. This follows the gross metering approach of jurisdictions such as Germany, New South Wales and Taiwan.

8.2. Model Assumptions

The LCOE model described in this report is a simplified model including average costs for the technologies studied. It has been based on cost assumptions on governmental projects provided to Atkins/Baringa as part of the project brief, international cost from publicly available sources, publicly available information on local Hong Kong renewable energy projects, Hong Kong based supplier information gathered by the consultant’s local office and Atkins/Baringa internally available cost data.

Additionally, it is noted that costs for small scale technologies vary significantly based on individual sites, and that costs for biogas are heterogeneous and depend on the base fuel stock. Therefore, it is suggested that this LCOE tool is used for multiple sensitivities and that additional work is completed to verify input assumptions.

The cost assumptions listed below are required for the simplistic LCOE model described in this report.

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Detailed Cost Assumptions:

Technical assumptions (e.g. load factor) and operation and maintenance costs of the different technologies are based on local references provided as part of the project brief and other local data suppliers where available as well as international benchmarks1;

Only O&M costs incurred within the first 10-years of operation are included as per the scope. The O&M costs have been estimated based on international benchmarks (apportioned as a % of CAPEX figures), project costs provided and supplemented by independent local market research (outturn or contractually agreed annual fixed O&M costs or variable O&M cost estimate over the lifetime of the asset) and supplier information (lump sum estimate of potential O&M cost). As such, the O&M costs are proportionally allocated to each of the first 10-years of operation although it is fully understood that in technical terms, O&M activities and costs may increase towards the end of the technical lifetime of the asset;

Technology insurance costs considered in this model cover both construction 3rd party and ongoing operations 3rd party insurance costs. Engagement with suppliers has provided confirmation that construction 3rd party insurance cost is the principal insurance cost. The insurance cost included assumes a 3% one-off cost on CAPEX based on supplier information gathered. For CHP biogas, international benchmarks for insurance costs have been used, which do not differentiate between insurance type. This is valued at 7% of CAPEX per annum. Due to the heterogeneous nature of insurance costs, we recommend that these costs are validated further with market participants;

Where applicable PBP/PRC employment cost are included in the LCOE model. Power companies’ connection costs are included where appropriate;

CHP projects considered include biogas generators with heat exchangers, reverse cycle chillers or stand-alone generators. Few actual CHP projects have been developed in Hong Kong. Outturn cost data has therefore been scarce. The model assumptions are based on CAPEX cost for CHP and bio-generator units. These have been inflated by factors of between 1.6 to 2.0 to cover for BOP items such as LV switchboard, signal interface to Building management system, cooling, exhaust, dry control and protection. Generally, such systems are likely to be installed as part of the design and construction of new buildings rather than retrofitting into older buildings. Civil costs are therefore not considered although we have considered such items as noise enclosures, registration and connection and optional items such as second set of batteries;

In the base case, no replacement CAPEX is assumed to be required before the end of the 10-year period of the LCOE calculation. It is assumed that such expenditure is more likely to occur beyond 15 years of operation of the project. Sensitivities are presented where a pro-rated portion of the replacement CAPEX is included each year. This is calculated by assigning an equal portion of the replacement CAPEX to each year of the technical lifetime of the project - 15 years for solar and wind and 20 years for CHP.

Technical Assumptions:

Table 8-2 below shows the load factor assumptions for the different technologies considered. These are derived from international benchmarks and manufacturer datasheets as explained in Section 7.

Table 8-2 Load factor assumptions

Technology PV Wind CHP (biogas)

Load factor 12% 22% 77%

1 Collected from BEIS Electricity Generation Cost report

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8.3. Results

In the base case model, the LCOE for the analysed technologies are in a range of 1.5 – 4.9 HK$/kWh with a payback period of 10 years.

For the avoidance of doubt, ‘payback period’ in this report refers to a discounted payback period, with the discount rate equal to a WACC of 4%. Therefore, the payback period is the year in which the investor recovers the initial CAPEX and O&M costs incurred for the first 10 years of operation, at a return of 4%.

Table 8-3 Base case LCOE model results

Technology LCOE

(HK$/kWh) Discounted

Payback year1

Potential discounted revenue over 10 years (HK$M)2,3

PV <10kW 4.9 10 0.4

PV <200kW 3.8 10 6.7

PV >200kW 3.1 10 13.8

Wind <10kW 7.0 10 1.1

CHP (biogas) 1.4 10 82.4

Note 1: Year in which CAPEX and O&M costs incurred for the first 10 years of operation is recovered, including IRR of 4%.

Note 2: Potential discounted revenue over 10-year period is for indicative purposes only.

Note 3: Potential discounted revenue is calculated assuming that the projects receive a FiT equal to the LCOE level shown above in HK$/kWh for

all output generation, and is discounted assuming a discount rate of 4%.

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8.4. Sensitivities

8.4.1. Sensitivity (Variable OPEX)

The LCOE for CHP Biogas is dependent on the fuel price for biogas. It is therefore important to note that a change in fuel prices can have a significant influence on returns. The following ranges on Variable OPEX are calculated to represent potential variations in the price of producing or purchasing fuel: +/-10%, +/-20% and +/-25%. The payback year considered in each case is 10 years.

Table 8-4 Sensitivity - variable OPEX for CHP Biogas with a payback period of 10 years

CHP Biogas variable OPEX

OPEX (%) LCOE (HK$/kWh)

+25 1.6

+20 1.6

+10 1.5

-10 1.4

-20 1.3

-25 1.3

8.4.2. Sensitivity - Replacement CAPEX

In the baseline case, it is assumed that there is no replacement CAPEX during the economic lifetime of the asset. Alternative scenarios with replacement CAPEX of + 10% of total CAPEX for a payback period of 10 years is considered and presented below.

Table 8-5 Sensitivity replacement CAPEX + 10% for payback period of 10 years

Technology +10% replacement CAPEX LCOE

(HK$/kWh)

PV <10kW 5.1

PV <200kW 3.9

PV >200kW 3.3

Wind <10kW 7.3

CHP (biogas) 1.5

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9. Payback period sensitivity analysis

The initial LCOE was based on a discounted payback period of 10 years. We have carried out a sensitivity analysis on possible payback periods of 8 and 12 years. The results of this sensitivity analysis are summarised in this section.

For the avoidance of doubt, ‘payback period’ in this report refers to a discounted payback period, with the discount rate equal to a WACC of 4%. Therefore, the payback period is the year in which the investor recovers the initial CAPEX and O&M costs incurred for the first 10 years of operation, at a return of 4%.

9.1. Results for payback period set at 8 years Table 9-1 Payback period set at 8 years

Technology LCOE (HK$/kWh) Payback period (years)

PV <10kW 5.8 8

PV <200kW 4.5 8

PV >200kW 3.7 8

Wind <10kW 8.4 8

CHP (biogas) 1.5 8

9.2. Results for payback period set at 12 years Table 9-2 Payback period set at 12 years

Technology LCOE (HK$/kWh) Payback period (years)

PV <10kW 4.2 12

PV <200kW 3.3 12

PV >200kW 2.7 12

Wind <10kW 6.1 12

CHP (biogas) 1.4 12

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10. Conclusion

10.1. LCOE

LCOE analysis is used to compare the costs of energy from different sources. The LCOE is a measure of the annual average revenue required by a project to recover costs and make a return on capital invested, for a given set of cost assumptions.

LCOE provides an effective method of comparing the costs of varying technologies. As described the LCOE provides a value for a specific technology which represents the required revenue for which, over the set-time frame, the costs of the technology are recovered including the cost of capital. Due to this, LCOE is therefore an appropriate method for informing the level of FiT rates for given technologies. This is reinforced by the wide use of this analysis for setting FiT rates in the jurisdictions reviewed. It should be noted that the results of the LCOE presented in this report are not automatically equivalent to the FiT rates. It is simply equivalent to the minimum FiT rate which would cover the assumed costs and rate of return for technologies considered. The incumbent regulator has flexibility on setting the FiT rates based on the results of the LCOE to either higher or lower than the LCOE results to achieve its policy objectives. Factors such as policy requirements, investment climate etc. can influence the setting of the actual FiT rates. Future FiT rates should also take into account market development, changing CAPEX costs, inflation etc.

We recommend that LCOE will be taken into account when deciding the FiT rate in Hong Kong.

The key LCOE assumptions and requirements are:

LCOE model:

All values in the LCOE model is to be presented in real terms except for fixed O&M costs which are required to be on an increasing trend to reflect the inflationary adjustments;

WACC is set at 4% which is the real discount rate generally used by government works project in Hong Kong for 2018 – 2026;

The LCOE is calculated over a 10-year period, taking into account discounted CAPEX; replacement CAPEX and O&M costs for the 10-year period only i.e. O&M costs and replacement CAPEX beyond the 10-year period are not included;

Technology insurance costs for installations is to include third party damage insurance only (construction and operation);

Where applicable PBP/PRC employment cost are included in the LCOE model. Power companies’ connection costs are included where appropriate;

CHP projects considered include biogas generators with heat exchangers, reverse cycle chillers or stand-alone generators;

FiT will be applied on gross metered generation. Savings from avoided site consumption are not to be included as additional revenue streams. Customers will pay retail price for all electricity generated by the installation which is consumed on-site;

Heat revenues for CHP are not considered in the LCOE calculation.

Determination of FiT:

FiT rate to be decided after review of LCOE results and discussions with stakeholders;

FiT rate will be applied for a maximum of 15 years, at a rate set to be equal to the LCOE calculated over a 10-year period. We note that this means that over 15 years, the generators will see higher returns than WACC used for the LCOE calculation;

To avoid over or under compensation, FiT rates will be reviewed periodically at intervals to be determined by the regulatory authority taking into account inflation, CAPEX and general market changes etc., therefore degression will not be applied;

FiT will be applied on gross metered generation.

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The technical assumptions considered are:

Table 10-1 Technical assumptions

Technology PV Wind CHP (biogas)

Load factor 12% 22% 77%

The results of the LCOE are summarised below (for the 10-year payback case i.e. base model only):

Table 10-2 Results of the base LCOE model (10-year payback period)

Technology LCOE (HK$/kWh) Payback year

PV <10kW 4.9 10

PV <200kW 3.8 10

PV >200kW 3.1 10

Wind <10kW 7.0 10

CHP (biogas) 1.4 10

10.2. Eligible Technologies

The eligible technologies for the receiving of FiT rate payments within the jurisdictions reviewed vary, whether the variation be on technology type or by the capacity of the installations eligible. Table 10-3 summarises the eligible technologies related to the intended FiT technologies for Hong Kong, within each jurisdiction, the type of payment and scheme length for each technology is additionally included.

Table 10-3 Eligible Technologies for Jurisdictions Reviewed

Jurisdiction Technology Type of Payment Length of Scheme

(years)

UK PV Gross 25

Wind Gross 20

CHP

(Biogas) Gross 10

Germany PV Gross 20

Wind Gross 20

CHP

(Biogas) Gross 20

Taiwan PV Gross 20

Wind Gross 20

Japan PV Gross 20 (101)

Wind Gross 20

Biomass Gross 20

Australia PV (Varies by state) (Varies by state)

Note 1: For capacity < 10kW

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As seen above most of the reviewed jurisdictions apply FiT payments on gross generation capacity. Atkins and Baringa understand that the payment of FiT rates in Hong Kong is to be provided by using a gross metered approach. In this approach every unit of generated electricity is provided with FiT payment. All generated electricity will be fed into the grid and customers will purchase electricity consumed on-site at the relative retail rate. The use of a dedicated meter for the installation will provide a simple method for determining the payment amount to customers as payment will be given to the full amount of generated electricity measured by the meter. The LCOE has also been set up taking this arrangement into account i.e. revenue streams from avoided cost of electricity (for on-site consumption) has not been included.

CHP (bio-diesel) has not been implemented in the jurisdictions under review, although the reason for this is not clearly stated for each jurisdiction.

10.3. RE FiT rates and Tariffs

The ratio of FiT rates and tariffs for the jurisdictions under review are given in Table 10-4 for the scheme start and current value.

Table 10-4 Ratio of initial FiT rates across reviewed jurisdictions to residential tariff compared to ratio of latest available FiT rate to residential tariff

Jurisdictions Year of first

launch Technology

Ratio of initial FiT rate to residential tariff at the year of

first launch

Latest available FiT rate / current residential tariff

rate

UK 2010

PV ~4 ~0.2

Wind ~1 ~0.7

CHP (gas) ~3.5 ~1.2

Germany 1991

PV ~1 ~1

Wind ~1 ~0.5

CHP (biogas)

~1 ~1

Taiwan 2010 PV ~4.5 ~2

Wind ~2 ~3.5

Japan 2012

PV ~2 ~1

Wind ~2 ~2

Biomass ~2 ~1.5

Australia 2010 PV ~3 ~0.3

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