Strong performers and successful reformers OECD...

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OECD EMPLOYER BRAND Playbook 1 PISA 2012 Strong performers and successful reformers in education Andreas Schleicher Brazil, 6 December 2013

Transcript of Strong performers and successful reformers OECD...

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OECD EMPLOYER

BRAND

Playbook

1

PISA 2012 Strong performers

and successful reformers

in education

Andreas Schleicher

Brazil, 6 December 2013

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2 PISA in brief

• Over half a million students… – representing 28 million 15-year-olds in 65 countries/economies

… took an internationally agreed 2-hour test… – Goes beyond testing whether students can

reproduce what they were taught…

… to assess students’ capacity to extrapolate from what they know and creatively apply their knowledge in novel situations

– Mathematics, reading, science, problem-solving, financial literacy

– Total of 390 minutes of assessment material

… and responded to questions on… – their personal background, their schools

and their engagement with learning and school

• Parents, principals and system leaders provided data on… – school policies, practices, resources and institutional factors that

help explain performance differences .

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What do 15-year-olds know… …and what can they do with what they know?

No country improved learning outcomes faster than Brazil…

…but Brazil still has a long way to go

3

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Change in performance between PISA 2003 and 2012

Indonesia

Thailand

Russian Fed.

United States

Latvia

Spain

Norway Luxembourg

Ireland

Austria

Switzerland Japan

Liechtenstein

Korea

Brazil

Tunisia

Mexico

Uruguay

Turkey

Greece

Italy

Portugal

Hungary

Poland

Slovak Republic

OECD average

Germany

Sweden

France

Denmark

Iceland

Czech Republic

New Zealand Australia

Macao-China

Belgium

Canada

Netherlands

Finland

Hong Kong-China

-4

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Ave

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Average mathematics performance in PISA 2003

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rovin

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erfo

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nce

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ete

riora

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perfo

rma

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PISA 2003 performance below the OECD average PISA 2003 performance

above the OECD average

Fig I.2.18 4

B

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o No country improved enrolment faster

– 15-year-olds enrolled • 2003: 65%

• 2012: 78%

o No country saw steeper performance gains since 2003

– 35 score points on the mathematics scale observed

– 44 score points adjusting for the ‘drag’ from newly enrolled students

o With that pace Brazil will catch up with the United States in 18 years and the OECD average in 21 years .

5 The Brazilian miracle

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Performance of countries in a level playing field

How the world would look if students around the world were living in similar social and economic conditions

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Mean score at the country level before adjusting for socio-economic status

Mean score at the country level after adjusting for socio economic status

Mathematics performance in a level playing field Mean mathematics performance after accounting for socio-economic status

Fig II.3.3 7

US would rank lower in a level playing field: • Ranks 3rd in wealth per person (explains 12%) • Ranks 5th in spending per student • Has average share of disadvantaged students • Ranks 6th in parental attainment • Has 6th largest share of immigrant students

(explains 4%)

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The dream of social mobility

In some countries it is close to a reality

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Percentage of resilient students

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% resilient Between 5%-10% of resilient students Less than 5%

Fig II.2.4 9

Socio-economically disadvantaged students not only score lower in mathematics, they also report lower levels of engagement, drive, motivation and self-beliefs. Resilient students break this link and share many characteristics of advantaged high-achievers.

A resilient student is situated in the bottom quarter of

the PISA index of economic, social and cultural

status (ESCS) in the country of assessment and

performs in the top quarter of students among all

countries, after accounting for socio-economic status.

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-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Score

10 Social background and school performance - Brazil

Belo

w leve

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PISA index of social, economic and cultural status

Private school

Public school in rural area

Public school in urban area

B

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Performance advantage of private schools

Differences in mathematics performance between private and public

schools shrink considerably after accounting for socio-economic status

Observed performance difference

After accounting for students’ and schools’ socio-economic status

Fig IV.1.19

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Educational resources are more problematic in disadvantaged

schools in most countries

Advantaged and private schools

reported better educational

resources

Disadvantaged and public schools

reported better educational

resources

Fig IV.3.8

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Math teaching ≠ math teaching PISA = reason mathematically and understand, formulate, employ

and interpret mathematical concepts, facts and procedures

13

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Focus on conceptual understanding Fig I.3.1b 14

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Students' exposure to applied mathematics Fig I.3.1c 15

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Index of exposure to applied mathematics

rarely sometimes frequently never

Relationship between mathematics performance

and students' exposure to applied mathematics Fig I.3.2 16

OECD countries

All participating countries and economies

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17 17 L

essons f

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Catching up with the top-performers

Low impact on outcomes

High impact on outcomes

Low feasibility High feasibility

Money pits

Must haves

Low hanging fruits

Quick wins

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18 18 L

essons f

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Low impact on outcomes

High impact on outcomes

Low feasibility High feasibility

Money pits

Must haves

Low hanging fruits

Quick wins

Commitment to universal achievement

Gateways, instructional systems

Capacity at point of delivery

Incentive structures and accountability

Resources where they yield most

A learning system Coherence

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19 19 L

essons f

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h p

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Low impact on outcomes

High impact on outcomes

Low feasibility High feasibility

Money pits

Must haves

Low hanging fruits

Quick wins

Commitment to universal achievement

Gateways, instructional systems

Capacity at point of delivery

Incentive structures and accountability

Resources where they yield most

A learning system Coherence

A commitment to education and the belief that competencies can be learned and therefore all children can achieve Universal educational standards and personalization as

the approach to heterogeneity in the student body…

… as opposed to a belief that students have different destinations to be met with different expectations, and selection/stratification as the approach to heterogeneity

Clear articulation who is responsible for ensuring student success and to whom

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United States

Poland

Hong Kong-China

Brazil

New Zealand

Greece

Uruguay

United Kingdom

Estonia Finland

Albania

Croatia

Latvia

Slovak Republic Luxembourg

Germany

Lithuania

Austria

Czech Republic

Chinese Taipei

France

Thailand

Japan

Turkey Sweden

Hungary Australia

Israel

Canada

Ireland Bulgaria

Jordan

Chile

Macao-China

U.A.E.

Belgium

Netherlands

Spain

Argentina

Indonesia

Denmark

Kazakhstan

Peru

Costa Rica

Switzerland

Montenegro

Tunisia

Iceland

Slovenia

Qatar

Singapore

Portugal

Norway

Colombia

Malaysia

Mexico

Liechtenstein

Korea

Serbia

Russian Fed.

Romania

Viet Nam

Italy

Shanghai-China

R² = 0.36

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Mean index of mathematics self-efficacy

OE

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Countries where students have stronger beliefs

in their abilities perform better in mathematics 20 Fig III.4.5

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Perceived self-responsibility for failure

in mathematics

Percentage of students who reported "agree" or "strongly agree" with the following statements:

0 20 40 60 80 100

I’m not very good at solving mathematics problems

My teacher did not explain the concepts wellthis week

This week I made bad guesses on the quiz

Sometimes the course material is too hard

The teacher did not get students interested inthe material

Sometimes I am just unlucky

%

Brazil Shanghai-China OECD average

Fig III.3.6 21

US B

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The parent factor

Students whose parents have high educational expectations for them tend to report more perseverance, greater intrinsic

motivation to learn mathematics, and more confidence in their own ability to solve mathematics problems than students of

similar background and academic performance, whose parents hold less ambitious expectations for them.

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Percentage-point change in arriving late for school that is associated with parents expecting the child to complete a university degree

Parents’ expectations for their child have a strong

influence on students’ behaviour towards school 23 Fig III.6.11

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ng

e

Change in the index of intrinsic motivation to learn mathematics that is associated with parents expecting the child to complete a university degree

Parents’ high expectations can nurture

students’ enjoyment in learning mathematics 24 Fig III.6.11

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25 25 L

essons f

rom

hig

h p

erf

orm

ers

Low impact on outcomes

High impact on outcomes

Low feasibility High feasibility

Money pits

Must haves

Low hanging fruits

Quick wins

Commitment to universal achievement

Gateways, instructional systems

Capacity at point of delivery

Incentive structures and accountability

Resources where they yield most

A learning system Coherence

Clear ambitious goals that are shared across the system and aligned with high stakes gateways and instructional systems

Well established delivery chain through which curricular goals translate into instructional systems, instructional practices and student learning (intended, implemented and achieved)

High level of metacognitive content of instruction …

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USA Poland

Hong Kong-China

Brazil

New Zealand

Greece

Uruguay

UK

Estonia

Finland

Croatia

Latvia

Slovak Rep.

Luxembourg

Germany

Lithuania

Austria

Czech Rep.

Chinese Taipei

France

Thailand

Japan

Turkey

Sweden

Hungary

Australia

Israel

Canada

Ireland

Bulgaria

Jordan

Chile

Macao-China

UAE

Belgium

Netherlands

Spain

Argentina

Indonesia

Denmark

Kazakhstan

Peru

Costa Rica

Switzerland

Montenegro

Tunisia Iceland

Slovenia

Qatar

Singapore

Portugal

Norway

Colombia

Mexico Korea

Serbia Russian Fed.

Romania

Viet Nam

Italy

Shanghai-China

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Va

ria

tio

n in

ma

the

ma

tic

s p

erf

orm

an

ce

ex

pla

ine

d b

y s

oc

io-

ec

on

om

ic s

tatu

s (

%)

Percentage of students who have repeated at least one grade

Adjusted by per capita GDP

Grade repetition is negatively related to equity Fig IV.1.4

R2=0.05

Greater equity

Less equity

R2=0.07

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0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Ja

pa

n

Norw

ay

Esto

nia

Icela

nd

Isra

el

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Slo

ven

ia

Pola

nd

Cze

ch R

ep

ub

lic

Kore

a

Sw

ede

n

Fin

land

De

nm

ark

Ne

w Z

eala

nd

Slo

vak R

epu

blic

Austr

alia

Cana

da

Ire

land

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Austr

ia

Italy

Port

ug

al

Germ

any

Spa

in

Fra

nce

Ne

the

rla

nds

Belg

ium

%

US

D, P

PP

s

Total cost per repeater (one grade year)

Total annual cost, relative to total expenditure on primary and secondary education (%)

Grade repetition is an expensive policy Fig IV.1.5

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28 28 L

essons f

rom

hig

h p

erf

orm

ers

Low impact on outcomes

High impact on outcomes

Low feasibility High feasibility

Money pits

Must haves

Low hanging fruits

Quick wins

Commitment to universal achievement

Gateways, instructional systems

Capacity at point of delivery

Incentive structures and accountability

Resources where they yield most

A learning system Coherence

Capacity at the point of delivery

Attracting, developing and retaining high quality teachers and school leaders and a work organisation in which they can use their potential

Instructional leadership and human resource management in schools

Keeping teaching an attractive profession

System-wide career development …

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-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

Luxe

mb

ourg

Jord

an

Th

aila

nd

Tu

rke

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han

gh

ai-

Chin

aIs

rae

lC

olo

mbia

Pe

ruC

hile

Neth

erl

an

ds

Me

xic

oG

erm

an

yV

iet

Nam

Russia

n F

ed

.U

rug

ua

yN

orw

ay

Ka

za

kh

sta

nIn

do

nesia

Be

lgiu

mIt

aly

Ma

laysia

Au

str

alia

Bra

zil

Ice

lan

dU

.A.E

.S

ing

ap

ore

New

Zea

land

Ko

rea

Sw

itze

rlan

dE

sto

nia

Ma

cao

-Chin

aC

osta

Ric

aO

EC

D a

vera

ge

Sw

ed

en

Arg

en

tina

Tu

nis

iaA

ustr

iaQ

ata

rIr

ela

nd

Ch

ine

se

Ta

ipe

iF

rance

Den

ma

rkU

nite

d K

ing

do

mH

on

g K

on

g-C

hin

aA

lba

nia

Jap

an

Can

ad

aS

lova

k R

ep

ub

licL

atv

iaG

ree

ce

Un

ite

d S

tate

sC

zech

Rep

ublic

Cro

atia

Fin

land

Mo

nte

ne

gro

Rom

an

iaH

un

ga

ryL

ith

uan

iaS

love

nia

Sp

ain

Se

rbia

Po

rtug

al

Bu

lga

ria

Po

lan

d

Me

an

in

de

x

Mean index Top quarter of this index Bottom quarter of this index

Teacher shortage Fig IV.3.5

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-4,00

-3,00

-2,00

-1,00

0,00

1,00

2,00

3,00

Sin

ga

po

reQ

ata

rA

ustr

alia

Ch

inese

Taip

ei

Sw

itze

rla

nd

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Hong

Kon

g-C

hin

aJa

pa

nS

loven

iaF

ran

ce

Un

ited

Sta

tes

U.A

.E.

Pola

nd

Ma

ca

o-C

hin

aB

elg

ium

Ca

na

da

Austr

iaR

om

ania

Ne

w Z

eala

nd

Ne

the

rla

nds

Hung

ary

Port

ug

al

Lithu

ania

Sha

ngh

ai-

Ch

ina

Uru

gua

yIr

ela

nd

Germ

any

Kore

aO

EC

D a

ve

rag

eS

wede

nC

ze

ch R

ep

ub

licIt

aly

Luxe

mb

ou

rgL

atv

iaS

pa

inB

ulg

aria

Denm

ark

Esto

nia

Norw

ay

Fin

land

Ma

laysia

Icela

nd

Gre

ece

Isra

el

Chile

Turk

ey

Alb

an

iaJo

rdan

Ru

ssia

n F

ed.

Vie

t N

am

Mo

nte

neg

roC

roa

tia

Bra

zil

Arg

en

tin

aS

lovak R

epu

blic

Serb

iaT

haila

nd

Kaza

kh

sta

nIn

do

ne

sia

Me

xic

oC

osta

Ric

aP

eru

Tunis

iaC

olo

mb

ia

Me

an

in

de

x

Mean index Top quarter of this index Bottom quarter of this index

Adequacy of educational resources Fig IV.3.8

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31 31 L

essons f

rom

hig

h p

erf

orm

ers

Low impact on outcomes

High impact on outcomes

Low feasibility High feasibility

Money pits

Must haves

Low hanging fruits

Quick wins

Commitment to universal achievement

Gateways, instructional systems

Capacity at point of delivery

Incentive structures and accountability

Resources where they yield most

A learning system Coherence

Incentives, accountability, knowledge management

Aligned incentive structures

For students How gateways affect the strength, direction, clarity and nature of the

incentives operating on students at each stage of their education

Degree to which students have incentives to take tough courses and study hard

Opportunity costs for staying in school and performing well

For teachers Make innovations in pedagogy and/or organisation

Improve their own performance and the performance of their colleagues

Pursue professional development opportunities that lead to stronger pedagogical practices

A balance between vertical and lateral accountability

Effective instruments to manage and share knowledge and spread innovation – communication within the system and with stakeholders around it

A capable centre with authority and legitimacy to act

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Hong Kong-China

Brazil

Uruguay

Albania

Croatia

Latvia

Lithuania

Chinese Taipei

Thailand Bulgaria

Jordan

Macao-China

UAE Argentina

Indonesia

Kazakhstan

Peru

Costa Rica

Tunisia

Qatar

Singapore

Colombia

Malaysia

Serbia

Romania

Viet Nam

Shanghai-China

USA

Poland

New Zealand

Greece

UK

Estonia

Finland

Slovak Rep.

Luxembourg

Germany Austria

Czech Rep.

France

Japan

Turkey

Sweden

Hungary Australia

Israel

Canada

Chile

Belgium

Netherlands Spain

Denmark

Switzerland

Iceland

Slovenia

Portugal

Norway

Korea

Italy

R² = 0,13

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

-1,5 -1 -0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5

Ma

the

ma

tics

perf

orm

an

ce

(sc

ore

po

ints

)

Index of school responsibility for curriculum and assessment (index points)

Countries that grant schools autonomy over curricula and

assessments tend to perform better in mathematics Fig IV.1.15

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Schools with more autonomy perform better than schools with

less autonomy in systems with more collaboration

Teachers don't participate inmanagement

Teachers participate inmanagement455

460

465

470

475

480

485

Less school autonomy

More school autonomy

Score points

School autonomy for resource allocation x System's level of teachers

participating in school management

Across all participating countries and economies

Fig IV.1.17

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Schools with more autonomy perform better than schools with

less autonomy in systems with more accountability arrangements

School data not public

School data public464

466

468

470

472

474

476

478

Less school autonomy

More school autonomy

Score points

School autonomy for curriculum and assessment

x system's level of posting achievement data publicly

Fig IV.1.16

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No standardisedmath policy

Standardised mathpolicy455

460

465

470

475

480

485

Less school autonomy

More school autonomy

Schools with more autonomy perform better than schools with

less autonomy in systems with standardised math policies

Score points

School autonomy for curriculum and assessment

x system's extent of implementing a standardised math policy (e.g. curriculum and

instructional materials)

Fig IV.1.16

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36 36 L

essons f

rom

hig

h p

erf

orm

ers

Low impact on outcomes

High impact on outcomes

Low feasibility High feasibility

Money pits

Must haves

Low hanging fruits

Quick wins

Commitment to universal achievement

Gateways, instructional systems

Capacity at point of delivery

Incentive structures and accountability

Resources where they yield most

A learning system Coherence

Investing resources where they can make most of a difference

Alignment of resources with key challenges (e.g. attracting the most talented teachers to the most challenging classrooms)

Effective spending choices that prioritise high quality teachers over smaller classes

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Money makes a difference…

…but only up to a point

37

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Spending per student from the age of 6 to 15 and

mathematics performance in PISA 2012

Slovak Republic

Czech Republic Estonia

Israel

Poland

Korea

Portugal

New Zealand

Canada Germany

Spain

France

Italy

Singapore

Finland

Japan

Slovenia Ireland

Iceland

Netherlands

Sweden

Belgium

UK

Australia Denmark

United States

Austria

Norway

Switzerland

Luxembourg

Viet Nam

Jordan

Peru

Thailand

Malaysia

Uruguay

Turkey

Colombia

Tunisia

Mexico Montenegro

Brazil

Bulgaria

Chile

Croatia Lithuania

Latvia

Hungary

Shanghai-China

R² = 0,01

R² = 0,37

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

0 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 140 000 160 000 180 000 200 000

Ma

the

ma

tics

perf

orm

an

ce

(sc

ore

po

ints

)

Average spending per student from the age of 6 to 15 (USD, PPPs)

Cumulative expenditure per student less than USD 50 000

Cumulative expenditure per student USD 50 000 or more

Fig IV.1.8

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Hong Kong-China

Brazil

Uruguay

Croatia

Latvia

Chinese Taipei

Thailand

Bulgaria

Jordan

Macao-China

UAE

Argentina

Indonesia

Kazakhstan

Peru

Costa Rica Montenegro

Tunisia

Qatar

Singapore

Colombia

Malaysia Serbia

Romania

Viet Nam

Shanghai-China

USA

Poland

New Zealand

Greece

UK

Estonia

Finland

Slovak Rep.

Luxembourg

Germany

Austria France

Japan

Turkey Sweden Hungary

Australia Israel

Canada

Ireland

Chile

Belgium

Spain Denmark

Switzerland

Iceland

Slovenia

Portugal Norway

Mexico

Korea

Italy

R² = 0,19

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

-0,500,511,5

Ma

the

ma

tics

perf

orm

an

ce

(sc

ore

po

ints

)

Equity in resource allocation (index points)

Countries with better performance in mathematics tend

to allocate educational resources more equitably

Greater

equity Less

equity

Adjusted by per capita GDP

Fig IV.1.11

SHA

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-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Sh

an

gh

ai-

Chin

aH

on

g K

on

g-C

hin

aF

rance

Slo

va

k R

ep

ub

licM

acao

-Ch

ina

Italy

Sw

itze

rlan

dQ

ata

rC

zech

Rep

ublic

Isra

el

Th

aila

nd

Arg

en

tina

Den

ma

rkB

elg

ium

Vie

t N

am

Ge

rma

ny

U.A

.E.

Unite

d K

ing

do

mG

ree

ce

Indo

nesia

Sp

ain

Ch

ine

se

Ta

ipe

iS

ing

ap

ore

Jap

an

Fin

land

Uru

gua

yP

ola

nd

Sw

ed

en

Au

str

alia

New

Zea

land

OE

CD

avera

ge

Neth

erl

an

ds

Ma

laysia

Au

str

iaL

uxe

mb

ourg

Bu

lga

ria

Me

xic

oJord

an

Pe

ruIc

ela

nd

Po

rtug

al

Bra

zil

Tu

rke

yR

om

an

iaC

an

ad

aN

orw

ay

Tu

nis

iaL

ith

uan

iaC

hile

Se

rbia

Ko

rea

Un

ite

d S

tate

sR

ussia

n F

ed

.C

osta

Ric

aK

aza

kh

sta

nM

on

ten

eg

roC

olo

mbia

Cro

atia

Slo

ve

nia

Ire

lan

dL

atv

iaE

sto

nia

Sc

ore

po

int

dif

fere

nc

e

before accounting for students' socio-economic status after accounting for students' socio-economic status

Difference in mathematics performance,

by attendance at pre-primary school

Students who attended pre-primary

school perform better

Fig III.4.12 40

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41 41 L

essons f

rom

hig

h p

erf

orm

ers

Low impact on outcomes

High impact on outcomes

Low feasibility High feasibility

Money pits

Must haves

Low hanging fruits

Quick wins

Commitment to universal achievement

Gateways, instructional systems

Capacity at point of delivery

Incentive structures and accountability

Resources where they yield most

A learning system Coherence

Coherence of policies and practices

Alignment of policies across all aspects of the system

Coherence of policies over sustained periods of time

Consistency of implementation

Fidelity of implementation (without excessive control)

CAN

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42 42 L

essons f

rom

hig

h p

erf

orm

ers

Low impact on outcomes

High impact on outcomes

Low feasibility High feasibility

Money pits

Must haves

Low hanging fruits

Quick wins

Commitment to universal achievement

Gateways, instructional systems

Capacity at point of delivery

Incentive structures and accountability

Resources where they yield most

A learning system Coherence

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43 43 L

essons f

rom

hig

h p

erf

orm

ers

Some students learn at high levels All students need to learn at high levels

Student inclusion

Routine cognitive skills, rote learning Learning to learn, complex ways of thinking, ways of working

Curriculum, instruction and assessment

Few years more than secondary High-level professional knowledge workers

Teacher quality

‘Tayloristic’, hierarchical Flat, collegial

Work organisation

Primarily to authorities Primarily to peers and stakeholders

Accountability

What it all means

The old bureaucratic system The modern enabling system

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Thank you !

Find out more about PISA at www.pisa.oecd.org

• All national and international publications

• The complete micro-level database

Email: [email protected]

Twitter: SchleicherEDU

and remember:

Without data, you are just another person with an opinion

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Do you have an idea on how to use this data to improve education in your country?

Would you like to work with us to develop that idea?

Apply to the Thomas J. Alexander

fellowship programme!

http://www.oecd.org/edu/thomasjalexanderfellowship.htm