Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data from the Operational NOAA...

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Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data from the Operational NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites A.J. Miller, J. Nash, R. Lin, C. Long, J. Wild, and M.E. Gelman

Transcript of Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data from the Operational NOAA...

Page 1: Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data from the Operational NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites A.J. Miller, J. Nash, R.

Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data

from the Operational NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites

A.J. Miller, J. Nash, R. Lin, C. Long, J. Wild,

and M.E. Gelman

Page 2: Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data from the Operational NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites A.J. Miller, J. Nash, R.
Page 3: Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data from the Operational NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites A.J. Miller, J. Nash, R.

NOAA Satellite equator crossing time

0

6

12

18

24

Oct

-78

Oct

-80

Oct

-82

Oct

-84

Oct

-86

Oct

-88

Oct

-90

Oct

-92

Oct

-94

Oct

-96

Oct

-98

Oct

-00

Oct

-02

Oct

-04

Month

Z

Tiros

N06

N07

N08

N09

N11

N14

N15

N16

N17

Page 4: Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data from the Operational NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites A.J. Miller, J. Nash, R.

John Nash (UKMO) SSU Channels

Channel Peak of Weighting Function

47X 0.5 hPa

27 1.5

36X 2.0

26 6.0

25 15.0

26X 20.0

15X 50.0

Page 5: Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data from the Operational NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites A.J. Miller, J. Nash, R.

N-14 minus N-11 7/97-12/03 Standard Deviation

• Channel 25 ~ 0.25C

• Channel 26 ~ 0.3C

• Channel 27 ~ 0.5C

Page 6: Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data from the Operational NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites A.J. Miller, J. Nash, R.
Page 7: Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data from the Operational NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites A.J. Miller, J. Nash, R.
Page 8: Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data from the Operational NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites A.J. Miller, J. Nash, R.
Page 9: Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data from the Operational NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites A.J. Miller, J. Nash, R.
Page 10: Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data from the Operational NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites A.J. Miller, J. Nash, R.

AMSU => SSU via Statistical Regression NOAA-16 AMSU vs NOAA-14 SSU

10/00 – 10/02

14

SSU25, etc = a0 + ai x AMSUi

i=9

Page 11: Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data from the Operational NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites A.J. Miller, J. Nash, R.

SSU/AMSU Standard Error of Regression 10/00 – 10/02

47x

2736x

262526x15x

Page 12: Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data from the Operational NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites A.J. Miller, J. Nash, R.
Page 13: Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data from the Operational NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites A.J. Miller, J. Nash, R.

-1

0

1

2

2000.75 2001.00 2001.25 2001.50 2001.75 2002.00 2002.25 2002.50 2002.75

N14 SSU-AMSU 60S

N11 SSU-AMSU 60S

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

2000.75 2001.00 2001.25 2001.50 2001.75 2002.00 2002.25 2002.50 2002.75

N14 SSU-AMSU 30S

N11 SSU-AMSU 30S

-0.3-0.2-0.1

00.10.2

2000.75 2001.00 2001.25 2001.50 2001.75 2002.00 2002.25 2002.50 2002.75

N14 SSU-AMSU 0

N11 SSU-AMSU 0

-0.5

0

0.5

2000.75 2001.00 2001.25 2001.50 2001.75 2002.00 2002.25 2002.50 2002.75

N14 SSU-AMSU 30N

N11 SSU-AMSU 30N

SSU Channel 25 - N16 AMSU Simulated SSU

-4

-2

0

2

4

2000.75 2001.00 2001.25 2001.50 2001.75 2002.00 2002.25 2002.50 2002.75

N14 SSU-AMSU 60N

N11 SSU-AMSU 60N

Page 14: Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data from the Operational NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites A.J. Miller, J. Nash, R.

-1-0.5

00.5

11.5

2

2000.75 2001.75 2002.75

Year

N14 SSU-AMSU 60S

N11 SSU-AMSU 60S

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

N14 SSU-AMSU 30SN11 SSU-AMSU 30S

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

N14 SSU-AMSU 0

N11 SSU-AMSU 0

-0.5

0

0.5

N14 SSU-AMSU 30N

N11 SSU-AMSU 30N

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

N14 SSU-AMSU 60N

N11 SSU-AMSU 60N

SSU Channel 26 – AMSU Simulated SSU

Page 15: Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data from the Operational NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites A.J. Miller, J. Nash, R.

-1-0.5

00.5

1

2000.75 2001.75 2002.75

Year

N14 SSU-AMSU 60S

N11 SSU-AMSU 60S

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

N14 SSU-AMSU 30S

N11 SSU-AMSU 30S

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

N14 SSU-AMSU 0

N11 SSU-AMSU 0

-0.6-0.4-0.2

00.20.40.6

N14 SSU-AMSU 30N

N11 SSU-AMSU 30N

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

N14 SSU-AMSU 60N

N11 SSU-AMSU 60N

SSU Channel 27 – AMSU Simulated SSU

Page 16: Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data from the Operational NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites A.J. Miller, J. Nash, R.

-2

0

2

2000.75 2000.92 2001.08 2001.25 2001.42 2001.58 2001.75 2001.92

N11-AMSU15 60S

N11-AMSU16 60S

-0.5

0

0.5

2000.75 2000.92 2001.08 2001.25 2001.42 2001.58 2001.75 2001.92

N11-AMSU15 30S

N11-AMSU16 30S

-0.20

0.20.4

2000.75 2000.92 2001.08 2001.25 2001.42 2001.58 2001.75 2001.92

N11-AMSU15 0

N11-AMSU16 0

-0.5

0

0.5

1

2000.75 2000.92 2001.08 2001.25 2001.42 2001.58 2001.75 2001.92

N11-AMSU15 30N

N11-AMSU16 30N

Difference of N11 SSU 25 and AMSU15 AMSU16 Simulation

-4-2024

2000.75 2000.92 2001.08 2001.25 2001.42 2001.58 2001.75 2001.92

N11-AMSU15 60N

N11-AMSU16 60N

Page 17: Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data from the Operational NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites A.J. Miller, J. Nash, R.

SSU Channel 15X at 45N

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

19

79

.00

19

79

.75

19

80

.50

19

81

.25

19

82

.00

19

82

.75

19

83

.50

19

84

.25

19

85

.00

19

85

.75

19

86

.50

19

87

.25

19

88

.00

19

88

.75

19

89

.50

19

90

.25

19

91

.00

19

91

.75

19

92

.50

19

93

.25

19

94

.00

19

94

.75

19

95

.50

19

96

.25

19

97

.00

19

97

.75

19

98

.50

19

99

.25

20

00

.00

20

00

.75

20

01

.50

20

02

.25

20

03

.00

20

03

.75

20

04

.50

Year

50 hPa

Page 18: Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data from the Operational NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites A.J. Miller, J. Nash, R.

SSU Channel 26X at 45N

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

19

79

.00

19

79

.75

19

80

.50

19

81

.25

19

82

.00

19

82

.75

19

83

.50

19

84

.25

19

85

.00

19

85

.75

19

86

.50

19

87

.25

19

88

.00

19

88

.75

19

89

.50

19

90

.25

19

91

.00

19

91

.75

19

92

.50

19

93

.25

19

94

.00

19

94

.75

19

95

.50

19

96

.25

19

97

.00

19

97

.75

19

98

.50

19

99

.25

20

00

.00

20

00

.75

20

01

.50

20

02

.25

20

03

.00

20

03

.75

20

04

.50

Year

20 hPa

Page 19: Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data from the Operational NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites A.J. Miller, J. Nash, R.

15 hPa

Page 20: Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data from the Operational NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites A.J. Miller, J. Nash, R.

6 hPa

Page 21: Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data from the Operational NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites A.J. Miller, J. Nash, R.

SSU Channel 36X at 45N

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

19

79

.00

19

79

.75

19

80

.50

19

81

.25

19

82

.00

19

82

.75

19

83

.50

19

84

.25

19

85

.00

19

85

.75

19

86

.50

19

87

.25

19

88

.00

19

88

.75

19

89

.50

19

90

.25

19

91

.00

19

91

.75

19

92

.50

19

93

.25

19

94

.00

19

94

.75

19

95

.50

19

96

.25

19

97

.00

19

97

.75

19

98

.50

19

99

.25

20

00

.00

20

00

.75

20

01

.50

20

02

.25

20

03

.00

20

03

.75

20

04

.50

Year

2 hPa

Page 22: Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data from the Operational NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites A.J. Miller, J. Nash, R.

1.5 hPa

Page 23: Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data from the Operational NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites A.J. Miller, J. Nash, R.

SSU channel 47X at 45N

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

19

79

.00

19

79

.83

19

80

.67

19

81

.50

19

82

.33

19

83

.17

19

84

.00

19

84

.83

19

85

.67

19

86

.50

19

87

.33

19

88

.17

19

89

.00

19

89

.83

19

90

.67

19

91

.50

19

92

.33

19

93

.17

19

94

.00

19

94

.83

19

95

.67

19

96

.50

19

97

.33

19

98

.17

19

99

.00

19

99

.83

20

00

.67

20

01

.50

20

02

.33

20

03

.17

20

04

.00

20

04

.83

Year

0.5 hPa

Page 24: Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data from the Operational NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites A.J. Miller, J. Nash, R.

Data Availability

• The URL for the SSU dataset is

ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/cpc/wd53rl/ssu/cohesive/

Page 25: Stratospheric Temperature Time Series 1979 to 2004 Using SSU and AMSU Data from the Operational NOAA Polar Orbiting Satellites A.J. Miller, J. Nash, R.

Statistical Model

• Trend 1979-1996• Trend change 1/96• Remove 2 years post

Mt. Pinatubo eruption • Seasonal cycle• f10.7• AO/AAO• QBO• AR(1)