To : Susan Rice, National Security Advisor

From :

Re : Syria Case

Issue. Possible U.S. intervention on Syria’s civil war, in particular after the recent chemical

weapon strike from Syrian’s President loyal forces, killing hundreds of civilians, including

women and children.

Interest.

Vital

Prevent further use of chemical weapons

Prevent chemical weapons distributed to terrorist groups or other state or non-state

actors within Syria

Extremely Important

Protect United States and its allies and partners against the threat posed by such

weapons

Combat the active extremist groups

Important

Bring down the Assad regime

Build the base of a tolerant, peaceful, plural and stable democratic system without

destabilization

Operational Objectives.

Secure the chemical weapons stockpiles and border

Prevent U.S. and its allies and partners from potential retaliation

Establish stable democratic system with protection for the Alawite, Kurdish, and

Christian minorities

Discussion. Further delaying U.S. military deployment and trust Syria agreement on placing

its chemical weapon under international control alone is deliberating due to several

possibilities that could arise during the wait such as chemical weapon distribution to terrorist

organizations and state or non-state actor. Meanwhile U.S. punitive military action is still on

debate, concerning the regional impact to the civilians, and alternatives to military action are

under intense consideration.

Strategic Options.

Option 1 – Obama’s Plan. Pursue the possibility of diplomatic opening, initiated by Russia,

to push Syria disclosing the chemical weapon, stop the production, and reveal the positions –

placing them under International control.

Pros:

Prevent more victims from U.S. military forces, Syrian forces, and civilians

Prevent retaliation attack to U.S. and its allies and partners especially Israel from

Syrian, Iran, Hezbollah, and Gaza-based militants

Cons:

Possibility of:

Prolonging the conflict

Chemical weapons might be transferred to terrorist groups during the wait

Syria’s neighbors, including several U.S. partners are overwhelmed by refugees and

threatened with violence

Option 2 – U.S. Military Intervention. U.S. is to deploy a limited military response to secure

the chemical weapons, bring down Assad regime, and control the civil war.

Pros:

Most effective and efficient way to secure the chemical weapons and cut down its

distribution

Prevent further conflict in the region and its surrounding (including U.S. partners)

Cons:

Possibility of:

Disintegrate remaining state authority that could result in more escalated conflict,

terrorist groups, or mass atrocities

Vacuum of power that could benefit extremists

Option 3 – Peace Treaty. Trust the UN for chemical weapons control, isolate Assad’s and its

associates preventing them being victim of atrocities should their regime fall, cease-fire

agreement, and disarming Syrian military. Encourage the Syrian National Council to commit

on treating all Syrian in equality despite their diverse religious beliefs and protect the

minorities.

Pros:

Involving Syrian civilians to participate in their country transition

Help promote plural and democratic system

Cons:

Possibility of:

Rejection and retaliation from the conflicting groups

Chemical weapon used and or already distributed to terrorist groups

Recommendation. Pursue Option 2 – U.S. Military Intervention. Further delay of action

would make the Syrian conflict worse and risk of chemical weapons distribution is higher.

Implementation:

Immediately authorize the military deployment to Syria

Discuss the scenario with allies – warn them of possible retaliation

Analyze the precise area to attack – moreover on the chemical weapon factory to

prevent contamination

Secure the border of contested areas and surrounding, maintain control over the street

while avoiding unnecessary death on civilians

Take down Assad’s regime and lay off the base for transition