Stortingsvalget 2017
-
Upload
svein-tore-marthinsen -
Category
News & Politics
-
view
161 -
download
4
Transcript of Stortingsvalget 2017
![Page 1: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Stortingsvalget 2017
Svein Tore Marthinsen@stmarthinsen
![Page 2: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
![Page 3: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
![Page 4: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
![Page 5: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Demokrati
![Page 6: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Valgforskning
Konfliktlinjer:1) Geografi (sentrum – periferi)2) Kultur (alkohol, språk, religion)3) Økonomi (varemarked, arbeidsmarked, H-V)4) Miljø (vekst - vern) 5) Innvandring (restriktiv – liberal)
![Page 7: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
![Page 8: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Partier Samordne interesser Politiske mål Lager program Rekruttering Valgkamp
![Page 9: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Partier/politikeres mål
Endre samfunnet
Politisk gjennomslag
![Page 10: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Vinne valg
![Page 11: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Blokkutviklingen 2013-2016
![Page 12: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Hvorfor borgerlig seier 2013?
8 år med Stoltenberg-regj (Ap+SV+Sp)
Manglet ideerMistet tillit
Høyre økt troverdighetBorgerlig samling
![Page 13: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
![Page 14: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Trendskifte 1 høst 2014
![Page 15: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Trendskifte 2 høst 2015
Liberal Restriktiv H + Frp sterke Ap i skvis
![Page 16: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Trendskifte 3 høst 2016
![Page 17: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
![Page 18: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Opinionsdrivere
1) Ytre faktorer 2) Indre faktorer
![Page 19: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Styrer godt!
Påvirker i riktig retning Feil kurs!
![Page 20: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Regjeringsstrategi
![Page 21: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Kampen om agendaen
![Page 22: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Velferd, ledighet, regjering Skole, økonomi, regjering Innvandring, samferdsel Miljø
Familie
Distrikt/Kommunereform
![Page 23: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
![Page 24: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Valgkampen vil handle om
Regjering Velferd Miljø? Innvandring? Andre saker? X: Krise. Terror. ++
![Page 25: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
4 valgkamptrender
![Page 26: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
1) Kontinuerlig
2013-17
![Page 27: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
2) Fragmentert
![Page 28: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
3) Direkte
![Page 29: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
4) Visuell
![Page 30: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Konsekvens Mer krevende
Flere muligheter
Segmentering av budskap
![Page 31: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
2017
![Page 32: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Valgsystemet1)Samsvar stemmegivning -
mandater - Forholdstall
2)Styringsdyktig - Sperreterskel og sperregrense
3)Tilgodese utkantstrøk - Arealfaktor
![Page 33: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
169 mandater
150 distriktsmandater
19 utjevningsmandater
![Page 34: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
2013: Borgerlig 96-73
![Page 35: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
43 % kvinnerSnittalder 46 år60 % gjenvalgte
![Page 36: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Sperregrensedrama?
![Page 37: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Vinner?
Taper?
Usikkert
Ett mandat?
![Page 38: Stortingsvalget 2017](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587d131b1a28abae148b60f1/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
70%