Storm in a teacup?

Adapting to the impacts of climate change in China

Thomas Tanner (IDS)

Declan Conway (University of East Anglia)

20th November 2008

“Climate change is a major global issue of common concern to the international community.

It is an issue involving both environment and development, but it is ultimately an issue of development.”

China’s National Climate Change ProgrammeJune 2007.

China and Climate Adaptation – Why the Interest?

Continental scale geography and population

Significant contributor to global emissions

Recent history of climate change

Rapid growth and socio-economic change

Existing environmental stresses

Increasing awareness and recognition of exposure and sensitivity;

- Floods 2007- Spring Festival 2008

Climate Change in China:Impacts and adaptation

Defra-DFID

China-UK collaboration

Prof Lin Erdalined@ami.ac.cn

Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences

Declan Conway, UEAd.conway@uea.ac.uk

Achievements in Phase I (2001-04)

Climate Change Scenarios

Temperature to increase by 3~4 and rainfall to increase ℃10~12% by 2080s

                   

2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5

Crop Yield Changes

Yields of rice, maize and wheat to change significantly in the next 80 years - without any adaptations

Phase II (2005-08)

Aims: Improvements to

national modeling of climate impacts

Ningxia case study: Integrated assessment for adaptation policy making

The integration approach

Change in total cereal production with different combinations of drivers

Only climate change: Without CO2, modest negative

impacts by 2050s

Change in total cereal production with different combinations of drivers

Climate change and CO2:

With CO2, production increases in all cases

Change in total cereal production with different combinations of drivers

Climate change and water:

Water is a significant limiting factor for future cereal production

All drivers together: Multiple effects; CO2

tends to counter-balance impacts, BUT…

PRECIS simulates upper limits of precipitation increase

Effects of extremes (and pests/diseases) underestimated

National analysis obscures areas with much larger changes (maize high sensitivity)

CO2 effect may not be so large/sustained

‘Optimistic’ results

Ningxia Autonomous Region – north-west ChinaSemi-arid to arid – high levels of rural poverty

Range of different farming systems

Research impacts and vulnerability in the agricultural sector

To help develop the capacity to plan for and respond to a changing climate in China and Ningxia

Design a regional adaptation framework and strategy for Ningxia

Awareness raising, dissemination and engagement

Ningxia regional Integrated Assessment – objectives

Adaptation guidelines for Ningxia

Technical report

User-friendly reports;

1. ‘adaptation framework’

2. how to apply the framework

3. adaptation strategy for the agricultural sector in Ningxia

An adaptation framework for NingxiaWorking with UKCIP

Adaptation as a process

3 Identify adaptation options

1 Assess climate risks2 Integrate development and adaptation goals

4 Prioritise options

New knowledge/research

6 Monitoring and evaluation

5 Implementation

High-level adaptation recommendations for agriculture and prioritisation

Consider establishment

of a cross-departmental group on adaptation within regional government

Raising awareness on climate change trends, potential impacts and adaptation activities across the region

High-level adaptation recommendations for agriculture and prioritisation

Good potential exists to integrate concerns within ongoing rural development programmes

www.china-climate-adapt.org

An applied approach to climate change impacts in the Chinese water sector

4 case studies of major development programmes

Team of water resources, economics and agriculture experts

Feeding into NDRC thinking and strategy on adaptation

Rationale

1. Climate change impacts affect the effectiveness of development investments

2. Pilot an adaptive approach based on adapting existing management systems

Adaptation:

Assessing how project objectives might be affected by future climate-related impacts,

and identifying options to manage impacts and exploit opportunities.

TimeCurrent End-date

Current

Project objective

Effect of climate change – failure to meet Objective

Project progress with climate change

Without climate change

Indi

cato

r

Change due to planned infrastructure, management changes etc within Development Project

Case StudiesProject Location

Flood control and land drainage management project

Huai River Basin

Integrated Water and environment management project

Hai River Basin

Water Conservation Plan Hai River Basin

Integrated Restoration Plan Shi Yan River Basin

Climate change impacts

Increased flooding

Increased reservoir inflow

Increased water deficit

Reduced catchment runoff

Case StudiesProject Adaptation options

Flood control and land drainage management project

1. Drainage canal pond network, raise land2. Raise runoff canals3. Improve flood and drought monitoring,

forecasting, warning and operating systems

Integrated Water and environment management project

1. Convert paddy areas 2. Interbasin water transfer3. Water reuse through sewage treatment

Water Conservation Plan1. Water pricing2. Drainage and irrigation

Integrated Restoration Plan 1. Water saving projects2. Inter-basin water transfer

What do the results tell us?

Challenges of traditional climate science

Existing ‘adaptation gap / deficit’

Adaptation as providing opportunities

Adaptive responses framed as both technological and social

Challenges: Climate Science

Uncertainty about the detail of CC remains high

– research to reduce uncertainties

– flexibility / adaptive management

Time scales beyond horizons of stakeholders

Other socio-economic changes more significant

Modelling impacts can become very complex and time consuming

Climate science

Seasonal forecasting / Decadal variability (causes of droughts)

Improved understanding of CO2-crop water use-land cover interactions

Better understanding of extremes (projections and impacts)

Methods:Impacts assessment – can be very technical/time

consuming – keep simple

Consultation essential – understanding current sensitivity, vulnerability and capacity to adapt

Beyond economic cost benefit analysis - MCA recognises other factors in decision making

Embed CC concerns within existing management systems and processes

No blueprints for adaptation process –invest time on communication and awareness raising

Opportunities:

Recent extremes may highlight current sensitivity and vulnerability (and effective responses)

Collaboration, ‘shared experiences’ worked well

National and international implications

Many existing options often already present – ‘no regrets’ [CC often exacerbates existing problems]

Entry points likely to deal with existing ‘adaptation gap’: better management of climate impacts

Thank you

www.china-climate-adapt.org

Project descriptionProject description

Identify climate-sensitive components

Identify climate-sensitive components

Problem analysisProblem analysis • Rapid strategic descriptive summary• Rapid strategic descriptive summary

• Identify climate-sensitive components• Identify relevant quantitative project objectives• Identify appropriate indicators

• Identify climate-sensitive components• Identify relevant quantitative project objectives• Identify appropriate indicators

• Descriptive overview of each Case Study• Descriptive overview of each Case Study

1

Phase Steps

Project descriptionProject description

Identify climate-sensitive components

Identify climate-sensitive components

Problem analysisProblem analysis

Semi-quantitative analysis of impactsSemi-quantitative analysis of impacts

Quantitative analysis of adaptation options

Quantitative analysis of adaptation options

• Rapid strategic descriptive summary• Rapid strategic descriptive summary

• Identify climate-sensitive components• Identify relevant quantitative project objectives• Identify appropriate indicators

• Identify climate-sensitive components• Identify relevant quantitative project objectives• Identify appropriate indicators

• Develop scenarios• Compare levels of stress in each scenario against project objectives – can it cope?• Assess need for adaptation

• Develop scenarios• Compare levels of stress in each scenario against project objectives – can it cope?• Assess need for adaptation

• Identify adaptation options• Estimate costs of each adaptation option• Estimate costs of damages (without adaptation)

• Identify adaptation options• Estimate costs of each adaptation option• Estimate costs of damages (without adaptation)

• Descriptive overview of each Case Study• Descriptive overview of each Case Study

1

2

Phase Steps

Project descriptionProject description

Identify climate-sensitive components

Identify climate-sensitive components

Problem analysisProblem analysis

Semi-quantitative analysis of impactsSemi-quantitative analysis of impacts

Quantitative analysis of adaptation options

Quantitative analysis of adaptation options

Multiple Criteria Analysis

Multiple Criteria Analysis

• Rapid strategic descriptive summary• Rapid strategic descriptive summary

• Identify climate-sensitive components• Identify relevant quantitative project objectives• Identify appropriate indicators

• Identify climate-sensitive components• Identify relevant quantitative project objectives• Identify appropriate indicators

• Develop scenarios• Compare levels of stress in each scenario against project objectives – can it cope?• Assess need for adaptation

• Develop scenarios• Compare levels of stress in each scenario against project objectives – can it cope?• Assess need for adaptation

• Identify adaptation options• Estimate costs of each adaptation option• Estimate costs of damages (without adaptation)

• Identify adaptation options• Estimate costs of each adaptation option• Estimate costs of damages (without adaptation)

• Evaluate preferred option (including ‘No changes currently needed’)

• Evaluate preferred option (including ‘No changes currently needed’)

• Descriptive overview of each Case Study• Descriptive overview of each Case Study

1

2

3

Phase Steps

Experiences from Testing in Water Sector in China

Raise awareness and promote action

China’s experience in managing climate impacts

Dealing with future uncertainty

Scenario, Timescale, Extreme events

Non-monetary aspects of economic evaluation

Tackling demand as well as supply issues

General Experiences and Lessonsfor Climate Screening in China

The suggested framework is flexible E.g. Applied to contrasting aspects of water sector

Not a finished process Ongoing cycle of learning Integration into planning is required

‘No change’ option Adaptation not always best option Need to avoid lock-in, maintain flexibility Ongoing monitoring of impacts and management

Possible Next Steps

Integration intoplanning and design

Further case study learning – other sectors

Improved applied

climate science – uncertainty