Stocks for 2011
Transcript of Stocks for 2011
-
7/30/2019 Stocks for 2011
1/33
STOCKS2011The Investors Guide to the Year Ahead
-
7/30/2019 Stocks for 2011
2/33
Published by
The Motley Fool, LLC
2000 Duke Street, Alexandria, VA 22314, USA
Published November 2010
The studies in this book are not complete analyses of every
material fact regarding any company, industry, or investment,
and they are not buy or sell recommendations. The opinions
expressed here are subject to change without notice, and the
authors and The Motley Fool, LLC, make no warranty or
representations as to their accuracy, usefulness, or entertainment
value. Data and statements of facts were obtained from or based
upon publicly available sources that we believe are reliable,
but the individual authors and publisher reserve the right tobe wrong, stupid, or even foolish (with a small f). It is sold
with the understanding that the authors and publisher are not
engaged in rendering financial or other professional services.
Readers should not rely on this (or any other) publication for
financial guidance, but should do their own homework and make
their decisions. Remember, past results are not necessarily an
indication of future performance.
The authors and publisher specifically disclaim any
responsibility for any liability, loss, or risk, personal or
otherwise, incurred as a consequence, directly or indirectly, of
the use and application of any of the contents of this book.
Copyright 2010 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved.
The Motley Fool, Fool, Foolish, Hidden Gems, Rule Breakers,
and the Jester logo are registered trademarks.
Published in the United States of America
Without limiting the rights under copyright reserved above,
no part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in
any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval
system, without the prior written permission of The Motley Fool.
Editor: Tracy Dahl
Financial Editor: Bryan White
Publishing Manager: Adrienne Perryman
Design and Production: Sara Klieger
Cover Design: Dari Fitzgerald
-
7/30/2019 Stocks for 2011
3/33
STOCKS2011
Contents
t h e m o t l e y f o o l | S t o c k S 2 0 1 1 : t h e I n v e s t o r s G u I d e t o t h e ye a r a h e a d | p a G e I I I
IN TR ODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . IV
by bryan white
A P P L E :ITS N OT TOO LATE TO TAKE A B IT E . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
by david gardnerand t im beyers
A R R I S G R O U P :TH E B ACKB ON E OF A MEGATR EN D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
by nick crow
C I T G R O U P :
N O T A S N A U G H T Y A S I T S E E M S . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . 7by alex scherer , cfa
D I A M O N D H I L L I N V E S T M E N T G R O U P :I N V E S T I N I N V E S T I N G . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . 9
by t im hanson
E X P E D I T O R S I N T E R N AT I O N A L O F W A S H I N G T O N :S H A P E D - U P S H I P P I N G . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . 1 2
by joe magyer
GAP :FALL (B ACK) IN TO TH E GAP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 4
by r ich gre ifner
L I N I N G :B R A N D I N G M E E T S B A S K E T B A L L . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . 1 7
by bryan white
L O R I L L A R D :G E T H O O K E D O N T H I S D I V I D E N D . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . . . 1 9
by charly travers
R E D R O B I N G O U R M E T B U R G E R S :A N A C T I V I S T I N V E S T O R S B L U E P L A T E S P E C I A L . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . 2 1
by j im gill ies
S Y N A P T I C S :Y O U R F I N G E R O N T H E P U L S E O F T E C H N O L O G Y . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . 2 3
by david meier
WAL-MAR T:S T I L L D E L I V E R I N G D E E P V A LU E . . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . 2 5
by james early
-
7/30/2019 Stocks for 2011
4/33
p a G e I v | t h e m o t l e y f o o l | S t o c k S 2 0 1 1 : t h e I n v e s t o r s G u I d e t o t h e ye a r a h e a d
STOCKS2011Introduction
BY BRYAN WHITE
DEAR FELLOW FOOL,
Markets are like rubber bands. Stretch them too far in one
direction, and snap! they eventually pull back. Lets take
bonds. About this time last year, a bond bubble was brewing.
Now, bonds appear on the verge of reverting to the mean, ready
to snap back to their usual slow and steady growth.
But guessing which direction markets will be pulled, and for
how long, is a fools game. We capital-F Fools prefer a more
measured investing approach to make our money. Our secret
weapon: time.
WHY WE GO LONG
Long-term investors like us view the market as a tool to
build wealth over long periods of time. Instead of focusing on
the next three weeks, we fixate on the value of an asset three
years from now maybe more. This discipline allows us tospend our time researching and analyzing businesses rather
than watching ticker feeds all day.
Well leave that to the professional traders. Those guys have
a completely different motivation (read: financial incentive)
that makes it impossible for them to think beyond a quarter or
two. Their clients are after short-term gains and arent willing
to wait around for a few years for an investment to work out.
But we are. Were not concerned with staying ahead of the
crowd. In fact, well look for opportunities where others have
fled and profit from them.
One of my favorite recent stories about the herd mentality
is Priceline.com (Nasdaq: PCLN). Business at the travelwebsite was zooming right along when an earthquake in Chile
called the companys short-term growth into question, and the
stock stalled.
About a month later, Europe Pricelines largest and
most profitable market became a cauldron of chaos fueled
by government austerity plans. Traders and investors alike
worried about a slump in travel, and they dumped the stock.
Priceline lost about one-third of its value in a matter of a few
weeks. Soon after, the companys earnings blew away analysts
expectations, and the stock is now at an all-time high.
The moral here is that you lose out when you reflexively try
to trade ahead of others. If Pricelines sellers had slowed down
and given the business some real thought, they would have
realized that travel websites are used to plan the minority of
trips in Europe. Yet the online travel industry is growing almost
10% a year in the region, so Priceline faces a huge growth
opportunity there. Makes that frenzied selloff seem silly,
doesnt it?
Thats why I encourage you to take things slow and profit
from measured, reasoned investing. To help, my fellow Foolish
analysts and I have put together this investors guide for the
year ahead.
YOUR STOCKS FOR 2011 AND BEYOND
Inside, youll find 11 great stock ideas with compellinggrowth stories. Weve included buy-below prices and sell
guidance to help you get into and out of these stocks at
the best time.
So take a spin through our best timely stock ideas, which
include opportunities for value, international, and dividend
investing. We even have a special-situation stock for those of
you who dont mind digging through traders trash (with gloves
on, of course).
Some of these stocks have snapped up sharply in the recent
market rally. We still think theyre stellar companies, but you
shouldnt overpay for them. Use your advantage of time to wait
for a price closer to our buy-below guidance.
After all, good things come to investors who wait for
opportune buying prices, for investment theses to play out, and
for the right time to sell at a handsome profit.
Stay patient, long-term investor and happy investing!
Foolish best,
Bryan White
-
7/30/2019 Stocks for 2011
5/33
t h e m o t l e y f o o l | S t o c k S 2 0 1 1 : t h e I n v e s t o r s G u I d e t o t h e ye a r a h e a d | p a G e v
STOCKS2011
Stocks 2003 Performance
Company RecentPrice * Return **
AllianceBernstein Holding (AB) $24.28 16.3%
WP Stewart & Co. (WPL) $5.95 -96.8%
Activision (ATVI) $11.46 445.7%
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) $29.12 28.5%
Cognos (COGN) *** $58.00 157.9%
Cemex (CX) $8.77 -2.9%
Hollywood Entertainment *** $13.25 -31.0%
Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND) $1.62 -63.8%
Noven Pharmaceuticals (NOVN) *** $16.50 62.7%
Quality Systems (QSII) $64.26 1,203.5%
WPP Group (WPPGY) $58.04 60.9%
Expedia (EXPE) / InterActive (IACI) $28.95 / $27.90 55.8%
Total Return 153.1%
Return vs. S&P 500 127.4%
* As of 10/29/10** Cumulative as of 10/29/10*** Last closing price as of corporate event (acquisition,bankruptcy, spinoff, etc.).
Stocks 2005 Performance
Company RecentPrice * Return **
BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) $26.11 461.5%
Ceradyne (CRDN) $23.81 -27.2%
Deckers Outdoor (DECK) $58.10 320.1%
Walt Disney (DIS) $36.13 41.2%
Deswell Industries (DSWL) $3.20 -71.2%
iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index Fund (IWF) $53.89 20.1%
Lowrance Electronics *** $37.00 20.1%
Palm (PALM) $5.69 -44.2%
Par Pharmaceutical Companies (PRX) $32.51 -21.1%
RH Donnelley (RHD) *** $0 -100.0%
Shimano (SHMDF) $49.50 88.7%
Ultralife Batteries (ULBI) $5.25 -62.7%
Total Return 52.1%
Return vs. S&P 500 40.2%
* As of 10/29/10** Cumulative as of 10/29/10*** Last closing price as of corporate event (acquisition,bankruptcy, spinoff, etc.).
Stocks 2004 Performance
Company RecentPrice * Return **
Alderwoods *** $20.00 139.0%
Bandag *** $50.75 40.6%
Cephalon (CEPH) $66.44 41.4%
Chico's (CHS) $9.72 -47.5%
Point Blank Solutions (DHBT) $0.28 -96.2%
Garmin (GRMN) $32.84 39.3%
Guangshen Railway Co. (GSH) $20.34 94.6%
MIVA (VTRO) $4.19 -95.4%
7-Eleven *** $37.50 132.2%
Lone Star Steakhouse & Saloon *** $27.35 31.4%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) $36.05 14.1%
Total Return 26.7%
Return vs. S&P 500 13.6%
* As of 10/29/10** Cumulative as of 10/29/10*** Last closing price as of corporate event (acquisition,bankruptcy, spinoff, etc.).
Stocks 2006 Performance
Company RecentPrice * Return **
American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS) $16.02 6.8%
BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) $26.11 157.8%
Bridgeway Large-Cap Growth (BRLGX) $11.76 -1.8%
Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) $29.72 56.4%
Disney Co. [Pixar] (DIS) **** $36.13 49.2%
Harley-Davidson (HOG) $30.66 -36.8%
Headwaters (HW) $3.40 -90.5%
Markel (MKL) $335.02 5.4%
OSI Restaruant Partners (OSI) *** $41.15 3.5%
Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN) $19.41 -35.4%
United Natural Foods (UNFI) $35.76 25.0%
Urban Outfitters (URBN) $30.79 -6.2%
Total Return 11.1%
Return vs. S&P 500 8.1%
* As of 10/29/10** Cumulative as of 10/29/10*** Last closing price as of corporate event (acquisition,bankruptcy, spinoff, etc.).**** Pixar was acquired by Walt Disney on May 5, 2006, for stock.Starting from then, the performance tracking indicates holdingDisney shares at the 2.3 share ratio and prices as of that date.
The Motley Fool has published The Investors Guide to the Year Ahead series each November since 2002. What follows is a list
of recommendations and their performance for all years from our Stocks 2003 publication (published in November 2002) through last
years Stocks 2010 (published in November 2009). All dividends are considered reinvested, including for the S&P 500.
-
7/30/2019 Stocks for 2011
6/33
p a G e v I | t h e m o t l e y f o o l | S t o c k S 2 0 1 1 : t h e I n v e s t o r s G u I d e t o t h e ye a r a h e a d
STOCKS2011Stocks 2007Performance
Company RecentPrice * Return **
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) $42.86 -33.2%
Braskem S.A. (BAK) $20.85 53.9%
Centene Corp. (CNC) $22.32 -13.1%
Chico's FAS (CHS) $9.72 -57.5%
Coventry Health Care (CVH) $23.42 -50.0%
First Cash Financial Services.(FCFS) $29.07 41.3%
International Business Machines (IBM) $142.96 67.9%
Logitech International (LOGI) $18.80 -32.4%
Marchex (MCHX) $6.42 -50.8%
Paychex (PAYX) $27.74 -17.8%
Pulte Homes (PHM) $7.85 -73.9%
Sprint Nextel (S) $4.13 -78.7%
Oakmark Select (OAKLX) $26.56 -7.2%
Urban Outfitters (URBN) $30.79 38.1%
Total Return -15.3%
Return vs. S&P 500 -7.1%
* As of 10/29/10** Cumulative as of 10/29/10
Stocks 2009 Performance
Company RecentPrice * Return **
Colfax (CFX) $16.07 84.7%
Dolby Labs (DLB) $61.68 109.5%
Domino's Pizza (DPZ) $14.84 181.1%
Guess (GS) $38.92 107.2%
Netflix (NFLX) $173.57 655.0%
Parker Hannifin (PH) $76.28 107.7%
Tenaris (TS) $41.43 102.7%
XTO Energy (XTO) *** $41.81 14.9%
Rydex S&P Equal Weight Materials RTM) $57.38 67.3%
Total Return 158.9%
Return vs. S&P 500 130.6%
* As of 10/29/10** Cumulative as of 10/29/10*** Last closing price as of corporate event (acquisition,bankruptcy, spinoff, etc.).
Stocks 2008 Performance
Company RecentPrice * Return **
Brinker International (EAT) $18.54 -12.0%
Canadian Imperia l Bank of Commerce (CM) $76.60 4.4%
Charlotte Russe Holding (CHIC) *** $17.51 15.6%
Faro Tehcnologies (FARO) $24.14 -6.4%
Fomento Economico Mexicano (FMX) $54.91 83.7%
Intuit (INTU) $47.98 64.4%
Marvel Entertainment (MVL) *** $54.08 96.0%
Portfolio Recovery Associates (PRAA) $67.05 73.6%
Spectra Energy (SE) $23.53 11.4%
Starbucks (SBUX) $28.56 27.5%
Thor Industries (THO) $31.49 -2.4%
Janus Contrarian (JSVAX) $14.56 -19.4%
Total Return 28.0%
Return vs. S&P 500 39.6%
* As of 10/29/10
** Cumulative as of 10/29/10*** Last closing price as of corporate event (acquisition,bankruptcy, spinoff, etc.).
Stocks 2010 Performance
Company RecentPrice * Return **
BD (BDX) $75.52 5.1%
China Mobile (CHL) $51.37 10.3%
Compass Minerals (CMP) $78.87 25.0%
Devon Energy (DVN) $65.02 -7.5%
Hillenbrand (HI) $21.49 11.0%
Nike (NKE) $81.44 25.1%
Olin Corp. (OLN) $19.79 20.5%
Somanetics (SMTS) *** $24.98 66.8%
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) $10.67 -10.2%
Yum Brands (YUM) $49.56 41.0%
Total Return 18.7%
Return vs. S&P 500 10.5%
* As of 10/29/10** Cumulative as of 10/29/10*** Last closing price as of corporate event (acquisition,bankruptcy, spinoff, etc.).
-
7/30/2019 Stocks for 2011
7/33
t h e m o t l e y f o o l | S t o c k S 2 0 1 1 : t h e I n v e s t o r s G u I d e t o t h e ye a r a h e a d | p a G e 1
STOCKS2011Apple:
Its Not Too Late to Take a BiteBY DAVID GARDNER AND TIM BEYERS
APPLE
Nasdaq: AAPL
Headquarters: Cupertino, Cali.
www.apple.com
FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
Recent Price: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $317.13
Market Cap: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$291.9 billion
Dividend Yield: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . NA
CAPS Rating:. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Stars
Buy Guidance:. . . . . .No recommendation.
Apple is a wellpositioned business with
a volatile stock. Buy it with a plan to hold
for years.
Data as of 11/8/10
WHY BUY
Apple is becoming the most powerul
content distributor in history.
Taking its computer and iPad sales
together, Apple is the market leader in
personal computing.
Its hard to believe now, but Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) is a prototypical two-guys-in-a-garage success story. (Sound familiar, Fools?) In Apples case, the two guys werent
the brothers Gardner. They were CEO Steve Jobs and future Dancing With the Stars
contestant Steve Wozniak.
Long before he was doing the tango on the telly, The Woz was building the first
few Apple I computers by hand. By 1976, Apple was selling its machines to retail
customers, and in 1984, the companys Macintosh computer splashed onto the scene
during a Super Bowl ad. Thats when Jobs and Wozniaks business efforts really
began to bear fruit.
Since then, Apple has fired and rehired Jobs, teetered on the verge of bankruptcy,
rebuilt its Mac operating system, changed the way we consume music, and reinvented
the cell phone and tablet computer. Effectively, its built an iEmpire. Apple is now
the worlds third-most valuable company behind ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) and
PetroChina (NYSE: PTR).
And yet we think the stocks rally is just beginning. Invest in Apple today, and you
can expect to nearly double your money over the next four years.
THE COMPANY
Thats because Apple is no longer simply a leader in the computer business. Its
also become a driving force in the media business, in which there are content creators
and content distributors. Apple is emerging as the most powerful distributor in history
thanks to its means of sharing written, audio, and visual material.
Take Apples iTunes store. In 2009, iTunes accounted for more than 99% of mobile
app sales, according to research firm Gartner. Today, music and apps are about a $5
billion business, and Apple rakes in more than $1 billion of that.
Apple owns this market, and it not only sells music and apps but also books and
articles (through the iPad) and video games (through the iPod Touch, iPhone, and iPad).
As more of this content is produced, sales of Macs and mobile devices that use Apples
operating system should rise.
The increasing use of iPhones in emerging markets, such as India and China, should
boost sales, too, as should Apples forthcoming agreement with Verizon (NYSE: VZ) in
the United States.
WHY INVEST?
Yet its the iPad that has us most excited about Apples future. When you add iPad
and Mac sales together, Apple becomes the market leader in personal computing. Sure,
we know the iPad isnt technically a computer, but we dont think its a stretch to think
that it will be used like one. There are already accessories out there that can transform
an iPad into a laptop equivalent, and Apple could easily beef up the iPads data-storage
capability in future generations of the device.
And consumers already prefer the iPad over alternative e-readers for reading
magazines and newspapers. Theyre also excited about streaming Netflix (Nasdaq:
NFLX) movies to the iPad, a feature neither the Nook nor Kindle offers. (Heck, were
-
7/30/2019 Stocks for 2011
8/33
p a G e 2 | t h e m o t l e y f o o l | S t o c k S 2 0 1 1 : t h e I n v e s t o r s G u I d e t o t h e ye a r a h e a d
STOCKS2011excited about that, too.) And once the Game Center social-
gaming platform moves from the iPod Touch up to the iPad
which we think will happen in 2011 teens should yearn
less for consoles and more for the portable, widescreen gaming
experience the iPad offers. In short, consumers will keep finding
ways to work and play with the iPad, and Apples stock should
keep rising because of it.
Research company IDC predicts that the overall market for
converged devices like smartphones and tablets will reach
594.4 million devices by the end of 2014 and that Apple will
own just 10.9% of that market. Thats down from an estimated
14.7% this year, which makes sense when you factor in the
increasing popularity ofGoogles (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android
operating system.
Whats funny is, if you do the math, Apples worst performance
would still generate $30 billion in iPhone and iPad sales in 2014.
We think $40 billion is far more likely. Add in $30 billion more
just from Mac sales, and todays Apple, which generated $65.2
billion in fiscal 2010 revenue, starts to look small.
And remember, this estimate doesnt include the kickers.Apple TV is starting to gain traction, the iPod is still a must-have
personal accessory, and social additions to Apples App Store
could transform every mobile device that runs Apples operating
system into a gaming platform. This would create billions of
dollars more in high-margin revenue.
FINANCIALS AND VALUATION
Yet investors arent accounting for this huge growth
opportunity. If anything, theyre pricing Apples stock lower than
they did just a few years ago. Check out these multiples:
Average
Multiples Year to date 2009 2008 2007Price toearnings
21.78 25.51 29.40 38.69
EV to EBIT 13.99 15.42 19.02 26.62Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poors
If youre not familiar with the EV-to-EBIT ratio, we think its
the most valuable metric to use when assessing Apples relative
value. It measures a companys enterprise value (that is, its
market cap plus debt, minus cash) against its earnings before
interest and taxes.
The advantage of looking at the EV-to-EBIT ratio is that we
can account for Apples $24 billion (yes, thats billion with a b)
cash hoard in pricing the companys pre-tax earnings power:
Balance Sheet Sept. 2010 Sept. 2009 Sept. 2008 Sept. 2007Cash andequivalents
$11,261.0 $5,263.0 $11,875.0 $9,352.0
Short-terminvestments
$14,359 $18,201 $10,236 $6,034
Operatingleases
($2,168) ($1,848) ($1,656) ($1,208)
Diluted sharesoutstanding
924.7 907.0 902.1 889.3
Cash per share $25.36 $23.83 $22.67 $15.94Numbers in millions, except per share. Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poors
Historically, investors have been willing to pay 30 times EBIT
for Apple during the Jobs reign, or more than twice the stocks
recent price. Some investors argue that 30 is too high a multiple
to pay given Apples size. Others say Apple will realize just 13%
aggregate growth in EBIT from 2011 to 2014 as volume sales cut
into margins. Apple is fully and fairly priced, they argue.
But we dont buy it. Jobs and his team have so consistently
blown away estimates that were comfortable working with amultiple of 20 times estimated EBIT, which brings our estimated
2014 enterprise value to $554 billion. Mix in Apples $25 billion
in net cash and dilute the number of shares outstanding by 1.5%
annually, and you get a stock worth $587 per share in 2014.
Thats nearly double todays price in just four years.
RISKS AND WHEN WED SELL
Even though it seems as if Apple has an app to accomplish
anything, the company isnt invincible. Android is winning
a larger share of new smartphone buyers, and Microsofts
(Nasdaq: MSFT) revitalized Windows Phone 7 could shape up
to be a sizable rival. The old standbys Research In Motion(Nasdaq: RIMM) and Nokia (NYSE: NOK) arent going
away, either.
In terms of computer sales, low-cost Asian manufacturers are
the biggest threat to Apple. Strapped consumers are more likely
to turn to cheaper alternatives in a down economy, though we
also cant count out Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) and Hewlett-Packard
(NYSE: HPQ). Fortunately, our intrinsic value estimate assumes
zero market-share gains in smartphones or computers.
Some say Steve Jobs himself is another risk facing the
company. They worry that too much of the companys success
is wrapped up in the CEO and that an Apple without Jobs wouldbe an Apple without a core. We strongly disagree. Tim Cooks
successful run as interim CEO proves that Apple has a deeper
bench today than ever before.
If youre thinking theres almost no scenario in which wed
recommending selling your Apple stock, youre right. Apple
is one of the worlds great brands, and were both delighted
to be shareholders. Short of proof of outright fraud or rapidly
deteriorating market share for its Macs and mobile devices, we
recommend holding Apples stock for many years.
THE FOOLISH BOTTOM LINE
Apple has made millions for investors willing to bet against
the establishment. Now, the iEmpire is the establishment. Yet
Apple retains its purpose and the competitive edge its built
through brand loyalty and design pretty great for a company
that began in a garage. Its stock is insanely cheap for a growth
story that still has years to play out so Apples pretty great for
your portfolio, too. Take a bite of this stock today.
David Gardner, co-founder of The Motley Fool, is the advisor
forMotley Fool Rule Breakers and co-advisor forMotley Fool
-
7/30/2019 Stocks for 2011
9/33
t h e m o t l e y f o o l | S t o c k S 2 0 1 1 : t h e I n v e s t o r s G u I d e t o t h e ye a r a h e a d | p a G e 3
STOCKS2011Stock Advisor with his brother and Fool co-founder, Tom. David
owns shares of Apple and Netflix.
Tim Beyers is a member of Davids Rule Breakers stock-
picking team and a contributor to The Motley Fools online
content and special reports. Tim owns shares of Apple and
Google and has options positions on Apple.
The Motley Fool owns shares of Apple, ExxonMobil, Google,
and Microsoft.
-
7/30/2019 Stocks for 2011
10/33
STOCKS2011
p a G e 4 | t h e m o t l e y f o o l | S t o c k S 2 0 1 1 : t h e I n v e s t o r s G u I d e t o t h e ye a r a h e a d
Arris Group:The Backbone of a Megatrend
BY NICK CROW
ARRIS GROUP
Nasdaq: ARRS
Headquarters: Suwanee, Ga.
www.arrisi.com
FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
Recent Price: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $10.13
Market Cap: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1.3 billion
Dividend Yield: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . NA
CAPS Rating: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Stars
Buy Guidance: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Below $10
Data as of 11/8/10
WHY BUY
The Comcasts o the world compete to
oer customers the astest networks and
Arris helps the service providers build them.
The U.S. government is backing aster
connection speeds, and theres a global
push or increased bandwidth.
The stock is cheap relative to the
companys worth.
Do you dig all things digital? Want to invest in a megatrend where consumptiondoubles every 18 to 24 months?
Then I present Arris Group (Nasdaq: ARRS), a stock that benefits from our lust
for increasingly more oomph from our cable providers. This thirst goes beyond my
co-workers playingHalo in the game room at Fool HQ: Bandwidth consumption per
user has increased 50% annually since 1982. Given our fanaticism for HD video on
demand, voice over Internet protocol, YouTube, Netflix, Facebook, and online gaming,
this trend shows no signs of abating.
That means multiple systems operators (MSOs), such as Comcast (Nasdaq:
CMCSA), are falling all over themselves to provide you with a triple play of telephone,
high-speed data, and video services. This competition combined with our insatiable
demand for richer, more personalized content and faster download speeds requires cable
companies to continually improve their networks. And Arriss head ends, hubs, nodes,
and other devices are most efficient way for them to do that.
THE COMPANY
Arris designs, engineers, and provides the infrastructure needed to create broadband
networks. That includes selling MSOs the physical equipment that makes up the
backbone of broadband infrastructure as well as helping them with digital advertising.
Accounting for about three-fourths of revenue, the biggest part of Arris business is
its broadband communication systems unit. This part of the business helps send and
receive data at high speeds, and its what enables cable operators to provide voice over
Internet protocol, video over IP, and high-speed data services. All this is made possible
through Arris Cable Modem Termination Systems (CMTS). Cable operators need thesepieces of equipment at their hubs to provide subscribers with broadband services. Arris
has increased its CMTS market share from 18.6% to 42.9% over the past five years,
even as industry giant Ciscos (Nasdaq: CSCO) has dropped from 54.4% to 38.4%.
Arris is also dominant in Embedded Multimedia Terminal Adapters (EMTA) think
broadband cable modems and voice over Internet protocol where its been No. 1
globally for more than five years.
Perhaps most importantly, Arris products conform to the latest international telecom
standard, version 3.0 of the Data over Cable System Interface Specification (DOCSIS).
This keeps Arris products relevant and sought-after as cable operators seek to upgrade
their networks.
In addition to its send-and-receive business, Arris access, transport, and suppliesbusiness offers hybrid fiber-coaxial equipment, such as head ends, hubs, repeaters, and
terminals, that make up much of the networks physical infrastructure. That business
accounts for about 15% of Arriss revenue and has a 24% gross margin. The high-
margin media and communication systems business (6% of revenue) helps MSOs with
ad insertion, digital advertising, and video on demand.
WHY INVEST?
In the race to provide the fastest connection speeds and the most reliable networks,
MSOs have no choice but to continually reinvest in Arriss offerings or risk falling
-
7/30/2019 Stocks for 2011
11/33
t h e m o t l e y f o o l | S t o c k S 2 0 1 1 : t h e I n v e s t o r s G u I d e t o t h e ye a r a h e a d | p a G e 5
STOCKS2011behind and losing valuable subscribers. Sure, they can delay
major capital expenditures for a while, but eventually they pay
up or risk going the way of dial-up. Because of these dynamics,
they tend to invest at a rate just fast enough to barely leap-frog
their competitors. But theres reason to believe that the rate of
investment will increase in the near future.
Thats because the U.S. ranked 16th in the world in Akamais
(Nasdaq: AKAM) State of the Internet report. U.S. residents havean embarrassingly slow average connection speed of 4.7 megabits
per second. Thats 60% slower than users in South Korea and
25% slower than Facebook fiends in Latvia and Romania. To
combat this, the Federal Communications Commission is pushing
for substantially increased investment through the National
Broadband Plan (see www.broadband.gov).
Among the plans key goals is the creation of the Connect
America Fund, which would provide nearly $16 billion to support
affordable broadband and voice services with download speeds
of at least 4 Mbps. The primary long-term goal is for at least 100
million U.S. homes to have access to a download speed of 100
Mbps a speed that Arris DOCSIS 3.0-compliant equipmentenables. But right now, only 0.8% of Americans have access to
connections faster than 25 Mbps (even if you include universities
and companies), and about a quarter of the population has speeds
above 5 Mbps. Were a long way from 100 Mbps.
Why should the government (or you) care about our connection
speeds? Well, according to studies from the Brookings Insititution,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and World Bank, modest
increases in the use of broadband can create hundreds of thousands
of jobs. FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski says broadband is
akin to the advent of electricity. And were still in the early
stages here; high-speed Internet will continue to reshape oureconomy and our lives for decades.
Revolutionary new technologies such as smart grids that cut
power-plant emissions while lowering consumers energy costs
and networks that connect first responders, law enforcement,
and hospitals to help save lives all depend on faster
broadband access. And for cable companies that have invested
in connections to our homes and businesses, upgrading to the
DOCSIS 3.0 specification is the fastest and most cost-effective
way to meet the demand for 100 Mbps speeds.
This need for speed isnt limited to the States. Developed and
emerging countries alike want the economic and social benefitsthat come with faster broadband. Its a global trend, and you can
see it in Arris sales. International sales accounted for 26% of
total revenue in 2009, and that proportion has risen to 37% so
far in the first half of 2010. When looking at Arris prospects, the
market is missing this demand shift.
FINANCIALS AND VALUATION
Already, Arris is profiting from the industry move to DOCSIS
3.0. The product shift to selling more DOCSIS 3.0-compliant
CMTS and EMTAs has bumped Arris gross margin to more than
40% in 2009 from about 35% in 2008. The companys EBIDTA
is about $220 million, and its profit margin is nearly 20%.
Its a bit surprising that a company so dominant in its core
businesses has a market cap of just $1.3 billion clearly, Arris
has room to grow. But for now, with more than half its market
cap in cash and short-term investments and just $200 million in
debt, it has an enterprise value of $833 million. That puts ArrisEV/EBITDA ratio at just 4.1, which suggests that this business
is incredibly cheap right now. It might even be an attractive
acquisition target for a larger competitor, such as Cisco, or one
of its primary customers, such as Time Warner Cable (NYSE:
TWC) or Comcast.
Using a free-cash-flow-to-firm model, I value Arris at $12 to
$15 per share, which is 20% to 50% higher than its recent $10
price.
RISKS AND WHEN WED SELL
Arris is a good business at a great price, but its not a
superior business. Thats because other companies can and do
provide the products MSOs depend on. Arris has to compete for
business, which is tough because the industry it serves is pretty
concentrated. Think about it: How many choices do you have for
broadband access? (And how many times have you cursed the
answer?) Its frustrating for Arris, too, as it leads to high levels
of customer concentration. In the first half of 2010, Comcast
made up 21% of Arris revenue, and Time Warner accounted
for 17%. Together, they made up 53% of sales in 2009. Losing
one of its major customers to a rival is the most obvious risk
for Arris. As the MSO industry consolidates, each operator
gains bargaining power and could force price concessions,
compressing Arris margins.
Whats more, the operators tend to be highly leveraged, and as
we witnessed during the credit crunch, even good companies can
lose access to capital. If this happens to Arris customers, they
wont make any capital expenditures, and Arris revenue will go
out the window.
Id recommend selling Arris if the company lost either of
its major customers. Id also recommend selling if its top two
customers ever made up more than 70% of sales. Likewise, if
competition forced price concessions without a commensurate
increase in volume, Id also suggest selling.
This isnt a buy-and-hold-forever business. I expect you to
profit because Arris stock is cheap relative to its worth. When
Arris starts to trade in the range of my fair-value estimate, you
should sell and pocket your profit.
THE FOOLISH BOTTOM LINE
Arris gives you a compelling opportunity to invest in the
megatrend of growing broadband consumption. Industry
competition, the National Broadband Plan, and a global push
-
7/30/2019 Stocks for 2011
12/33
p a G e 6 | t h e m o t l e y f o o l | S t o c k S 2 0 1 1 : t h e I n v e s t o r s G u I d e t o t h e ye a r a h e a d
STOCKS2011for increased bandwidth speeds act as a catalysts to unlock the
stocks value.
For now, the stock is cheap relative to its potential. But that
wont be the case for long, so buy into broadband while its still
a bargain.
Nick Crow is a senior analyst forMotley Fool Pro, a real-
money portfolio that uses stocks, ETFs, and options strategies;
andMotley Fool Options, the Fools options ideas service. Heowns shares of Arris Group.
The Motley Fool has options positions on Cisco.
-
7/30/2019 Stocks for 2011
13/33
t h e m o t l e y f o o l | S t o c k S 2 0 1 1 : t h e I n v e s t o r s G u I d e t o t h e ye a r a h e a d | p a G e 7
STOCKS2011CIT Group:
Not as Naughty as It SeemsBY ALEX SCHERER, CFA
What would you call investing in (1) a specialty finance company thats (2) fresh outof bankruptcy and (3) has an ugly, high-cost financing structure? Oh, and (4) regulators
are breathing down its neck, and (5) the CEO is infamous for buying a $35,000
commode (no, not thatkind of commode this one was a fancy cabinet) on his earlier
companys dime?
Five kinds of crazy? Well, Id call it exhilarating like dating the bad girl. Thats
because what makes CIT Group (NYSE: CIT) seem so naughty is in fact a batch of
low-hanging fruit the market has largely ignored. Special-situation investors, take note.
THE COMPANY
CIT is a commercial finance company that makes loans to small and medium-size
businesses in about 30 industries and 50 countries, though primarily in the U.S. and
Canada. Its historically served smaller, niche lending areas for example, partnering
with an office equipment provider to provide financing for its customers copier and
computer purchases. More than 100 years of experience and millions of bread-and-
butter loans made for a staid yet successful business until rapid expansion from 2005
to 2007 ran smack into the credit crisis. CIT was dealt a liquidity squeeze it wasnt
prepared for.
Like many of its non-bank financial peers at the time, CIT restructured. In December
2008, it became a bank holding company and accepted more than $2 billion in
federal rescue funding in an attempt to outlast the liquidity crisis. But as fear of
credit implosions soared in 2009, CIT was deemed not quite too-big-to-fail, and it
was ultimately denied the kind of federal rescue that kept the biggest companies like
Citigroup and Bank of America out of bankruptcy court. So CITs lenders arrangeda prepackaged bankruptcy that brought the company into and back out of Chapter 11
intact and in only 40 days, a feat unheard of for a complex finance company. The
old stock was wiped out along with more than $10 billion of debt, and CITs lenders
became the new owners of a company in fighting condition.
And then the company cleaned house. Seven of the 13 board members are new,
including Chairman and CEO John Thain. In the cocktail-party crowd, Thain is known
as one of the villains in the Wall Street bailout saga. But he also successfully turned
around the New York Stock Exchange during a time of major turmoil. That experience,
plus his marquee name, made him a natural selection for this high-profile turnaround.
Hes hit the ground running, hiring a new CFO, chief administrative officer, chief risk
officer, and chief credit officer in the past year, and hes focusing on the right issues toset CITs turnaround in motion. Importantly, many longtime CIT executives have stuck
around at the individual business level, each with many years of experience in their
roles and very knowledgeable about their clients and products.
WHY INVEST?
In large part, CITs woes were caused by overextending itself and using short-term,
finicky lenders to finance its business. Today, the new company is steadily shrinking so
it can pay off the high-cost debt it took on as part of the prepackaged bankruptcy deal.
The net effect will be a smaller company but one that has a more profitable funding
CIT GROUP
NYSE: CIT
Headquarters: New York, N.Y.
www.cit.com
FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
Recent P rice: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $43.46
Market Cap: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $8.7 billion
Dividend Yield: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . NA
CAPS Rating:. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Stars
Buy Guidance:. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Below $42
Data as of 11/8/10
WHY BUY
The switch to a new unding model will
make this specialty inance companys stock
more valuable.
CEO John Thain has experience with
corporate turnarounds.
Book value should increase as accounting
adjustments are reversed.
-
7/30/2019 Stocks for 2011
14/33
p a G e 8 | t h e m o t l e y f o o l | S t o c k S 2 0 1 1 : t h e I n v e s t o r s G u I d e t o t h e ye a r a h e a d
STOCKS2011model and is therefore more valuable on a per-share basis.
Much of the shrinkage will come smoothly, through the natural
maturities of its customers loans, and the rest will come in
lumps as CIT sells off parts of its business that are no longer
relevant to its core operations.
Another big boost to the stock price will come when CIT
successfully makes the transition from a lender reliant on
capital markets to fund its lending to one with a bank-centricmodel that uses a base of deposits to fund its lending. To get
there, CIT has to extricate itself from a series of regulator-
imposed limitations that are preventing its bank subsidiary from
increasing its deposit base. This will be an important catalyst
for the stock over the next 12 months, as current funding costs
are nearly 6%, compared with the approximately 2.5% CIT
pays out on its deposits.
For a business that makes money simply by borrowing dollars
at one rate and lending them out at another, the cost of those
borrowings is a big deal. Historically, the company could loan at
nearly 4% higher than its borrowing costs, but that spread is now
less than 1% because of its high-cost debt and the anchor of $10
billion in cash on its balance sheet thats earning nearly nothing.
But todays pain is tomorrows gain. Through debt reduction and
a rising deposit base, the spread should approach its historical
3% to 4% level by the end of 2012.
FINANCIALS AND VALUATION
As with all companies in bankruptcy protection, CIT went
through a mind-numbingly complex fresh-start accounting
process, during which its entire balance sheet was reset to then-
prevailing fair market values. This occurred when the credit crisis
was still fresh in everyones minds, so those fair-value figureswere draconian assumptions about the value of CITs assets (the
collectability of the loans it had made) and liabilities (CITs
promises to repay its lenders). Those values were marked down
severely, with about $8 billion of value whacked off of CITs $57
billion in non-cash assets.
But all that has turned out to be a good thing today. CIT now
has one of the industrys cleanest balance sheets, with a legitimate
book value and earnings power baked in. As of Sept. 30, CITs
tangible book value per share was $42, and the remaining
accretable discount per share (the portion of CITs write-downs
that will reverse as loans mature and are paid off) was about $14.
Most of that will flow through earnings into book value over the
next several years, so by the end of 2013, tangible book value
should be more than $52 per share.
The stock now trades right around CITs conservative $42
book value, so the shares potential downside if the U.S. economy
goes south again is substantially lower than at nearly any other
financial company. (Most of them trade at or above their own
less-conservatively stated book values.) This margin of safety is
the first clue that CIT is a tempting special-situation stock.
An additional $4 to $5 per share of book value should accrue
over the next several quarters as CITs fresh-start accounting
adjustments are reversed. More normal earnings should
further enhance book value starting next year, as CIT progresses
back toward its true economic book value of about $53. At that
point, CIT should be able to earn more than $3.75 per share as
a baseline and theres significant upside beyond that after
the bank-centric model takes root. All told, I value the stockconservatively at $58, or 1.1 times economic book value.
RISKS AND WHEN WED SELL
The biggest risk facing CIT is that another major recession
could sink its turnaround effort before it has a chance to flourish.
If a double-dip recession leads to a new round of credit losses,
book-value growth wont materialize, and CIT wont be able to
repay its debt fast enough. Given the current margin of safety
built into the stock, CIT will probably outperform its peers
but it wont give you too much to cheer about, so you might
want to sell your shares.
CITs bank is widely expected to get out of its current
regulatory restrictions in the next year. If that finagling takes
longer, it would weigh on the stock price. And while CIT
should shrink its balance sheet over the next two years, if it
shrinks more than expected because it cant increase its lower-
cost funding from bank deposits, the turnaround effort would
be half-baked, and CIT wont achieve a return to its previous
baseline earning power. In that situation, Id recommend you
sell your stock.
THE FOOLISH BOTTOM LINE
CIT is a show-me investment that requires proof of steady
progress. If management starts waffling about regulatory
clearance or if credit losses rear their ugly heads again, dont
stick around hoping for the best. This isnt a hold-it-forever
stock. After all, CIT is in a highly competitive business that
generally produces mediocre returns on equity.
If CIT stock kisses the $60s without a major change in the
companys business prospects, youd be wise to show this
one the door. How well Thain navigates the turnaround willdetermine whether this special situation pays off, but todays $43
price gives you a nice margin of safety, and that makes the date
worth the while.
Alex Scherer is an associate advisor for Stock Advisor, the
Fools flagship general equity newsletter service. He owns shares
of CIT Group.
The Motley Fool owns shares of Bank of America.
-
7/30/2019 Stocks for 2011
15/33
t h e m o t l e y f o o l | S t o c k S 2 0 1 1 : t h e I n v e s t o r s G u I d e t o t h e ye a r a h e a d | p a G e 9
STOCKS2011Diamond Hill Investment Group:
Invest in InvestingBY TIM HANSON
The past 10 years havent been kind to stocks. In fact, investors dubbed the Aughtsa lost decade because for the first time ever, the S&P 500 closed a calendar decade
in the red. Investors have responded this year by pulling more than $45 billion from
domestic stock funds. Yet the last time investors showed such disdain for stocks was
1979, whenBusinessWeekannounced The Death of Equities. The start of the next
market rally, of course, soon followed.
The reason for this is that although the stock market can be cyclical, its also one of
the greatest creators of wealth ever known. So even though equities are out of favor
today, I suspect they will move back into favor during the next decade making it a
far better 10 years for investors.
Youll benefit from this, particularly if you invest in other superior investors, such
as the team at Diamond Hill Investment Group (Nasdaq: DHIL). This asset manager
has done an excellent job gathering and managing money during a challenging time for
stocks, and the companys performance should only improve as the market does.
THE COMPANY
Diamond Hill is an asset manager with nearly $7 billion under management. At
the end of October, $2.9 billion of that resided in separate accounts that the company
manages for high-net-worth individuals, and $4.9 billion was invested across the
companys seven retail mutual funds. These include four value-oriented equity funds:
small cap, small-mid cap, large cap, and select; and three alternative funds: long/short,
financial long/short, and strategic income, with the majority of those assets stashed
in the large cap and long/short funds. The company ranks reasonably well as a fund
manager, according to Morningstar data, with five of its seven funds earning 4-star
ratings. And although the companys flagship long/short fund doesnt stack up well
against its peers over the trailing five-year period, the funds 10-year profile is more
favorable: Its 6.24% total return puts it among the top 25% of funds in its category.
FundAssets undermanagement
Morningstarrating
Five-year annualizedreturn
% rank incategory
Diamond Hill Small Cap (DHSCX) $714.4 million 3 stars 3.90% 37%Diamond Hill Small-Mid Cap (DHMAX) $54.5 million 4 stars 2.20%* 2%*Diamond Hill Large Cap (DHLAX) $949.2 million 4 stars 2.58% 20%Diamond Hill Select (DHTAX) $35 million 4 stars -3.76%* 6%*Diamond Hill Long-Short (DIAMX) $1.9 billion 3 stars 2.31% 58%Diamond Hill Financial Long-Short(BANCX)
$12 million 4 stars -5.39% 56%
Diamond Hill Strategic Income(DSIAX)
$150 million 2 stars 6.02% 67%
*Trailing three year results. Fund does not yet have a five-year track record.
The managers of these funds are all either long-tenured, have been with their fund
since inception, or both. Diamond Hill has recently been investing heavily in its
research staff to keep improving returns and to expand its capabilities to open new
funds. CEO Ric Dillon alluded to a potential international fund in his most recent letter
to shareholders.
The company is also regarded for doing well by its investors and its shareholders.
Diamond Hill has received nothing but A stewardship grades from Morningstar, a
proprietary rating that judges funds based on their corporate culture, board, quality,
DIAMOND HILL INVESTMENT GROUP
Nasdaq: DHIL
Headquarters: Columbus, Ohio
www.diamond-hill.com
FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
Recent P rice: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $81.67
Market Cap: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $227 million
D i v i d e n d Y i e l d . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 6 %
CAPS Rating: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Stars
Buy Guidance: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Below $75
(Buy below guidance changed from $55 to $75 on 11/11)
Data as of 11/8/2010
WHY BUY
Although the past decade has been
challenging or investors, Diamond Hill has
bucked the trend and increased its assets
under management at a remarkable rate.
The insider-owned company rewards
investors with sizable special dividends.
It should easily exceed the growth
and proit margin expectations priced into
the stock.
-
7/30/2019 Stocks for 2011
16/33
p a G e 1 0 | t h e m o t l e y f o o l | S t o c k S 2 0 1 1 : t h e I n v e s t o r s G u I d e t o t h e ye a r a h e a d
STOCKS2011incentives, fees, and compliance. And the company carries
over that respect for stewardship to the treatment of its owners.
Investors have shared in the companys recent success thanks to
special $10 per-share dividends in 2008 and 2009 and a declared
$13 per-share dividend for 2010. Dillon, a 7% owner of the
company and an admirer of Warren Buffett, regularly emphasizes
that the companys commitment to sustainable growth increases
its per-share intrinsic value. This is truly a company run by
investors for investors.
WHY INVEST?
Despite the tough market over the past decade, Diamond
Hill has had no trouble increasing its business. Assets under
management (AUM) has increased from a scant $524 million
at the end of 2004 to more than $7 billion today thats better
than 57% annual growth. Whats more, while that growth is
slowing, Diamond Hill has continued to be robust even as
investors pull money from other domestic stock funds.
Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 YTDYear-end
AUM $1,531 $3,708 $4,403 $4,510 $6,283 $7,080YOYGrowth
192% 142% 18.7% 2.4% 39.3% 29%
Dollar amounts in millions. Source: Company filings.
Given that the biggest challenge to collecting assets is
its investment performance, Diamond Hill should be able
to maintain this AUM momentum if domestic stocks regain
favor with investors. The company also recently began a new
relationship with Nationwide to sub-advise an additional $800
million portfolio. As a result, Diamond Hill has several new
avenues for growth in addition to its investment performance,
including creating new funds and expanding its relationship with
Nationwide. Put it all together, and Diamond Hill looks like acompelling long-term opportunity at todays $81 price.
FINANCIALS AND VALUATION
One of the best-known methods to value asset managers is
Marty Whitmans rule: 2% of AUM plus tangible book value. This
is useful as long as the asset manager has substantially more cash
than debt on its balance sheet. Diamond Hill fits that bill, though
its $35 million dividend payout will temporarily alter its balance
sheet profile. That said, as of its last report, the company was
sitting on $18.7 million of cash and $15.5 million of investments
in its own funds. It had no debt and was on track to generate $10
million to $20 million of free cash flow again this year.If we apply Whitmans method to Diamond Hill, we get a fair
value of almost $70 per share:
AUM $7,965Nationwide relationship $800Total estimated AUM $7,8802% of estimated AUM $158Cash and investments $34Shares outstanding 2.8Fair value $69.11Dollar amounts in millions, except fail value.
Yes, $70 is below todays stock price, but this valuation is
conservative because it doesnt account for Diamond Hills AUM
growth profile or its attractiveness as an acquisition by a larger
asset manager. Recent buyouts in this industry have been for 3%
to 4% of AUM, which would value Diamond Hill at $98 to $126
per share.
Its also important to note that AUM is not just a product of
marketing and asset-gathering but that it also rises as returnsimprove. This is a negligible fact in a flat or down market (like
the one we had over the past decade), but if you believe that
stocks will rise over the next decade, then Diamond Hill will
benefit from an AUM tailwind that wont cost it anything in
the way of additional marketing expenses. Further, although the
company has dramatically increased its AUM in the past five
years, its also paid up to improve its infrastructure:
Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Compensation $6.9 $18.1 $20.0 $26.1 $24.1Fund administration $0.8 $1.7 $2.4 $2.3 $2.3Selling, general and administrativeexpense
$0.9 $1.5 $3.3 $3.4 $3.9
Total operating expense $8.6 $21.3 $25.7 $31.8 $30.3YOY Increase 148% 21% 24% -5%Dollar amounts in millions.
All told, AUM growth has been proportionally offset by
growth in operating expenses, with the companys operating
margin stable at about 30% each year.
What last years results with AUM up nearly 40% and
expenses down 5% suggest, however, is that the company has
enough people to continue to increase AUM without increasing
expenses. That means investors should begin to see operating
leverage lead to a higher profit margin. As Dillon wrote in this
years letter to shareholders, Diamond Hills staffing levels
are above average for the industry, with that excess capacityenabling high AUM growth rates. Yet as those numbers revert to
the mean (the companys website currently advertises just one
job opening), operating profitability should improve to about
35% the industry average.
Tweak the model to assume 8% to 10% AUM growth during
the next decade (to reflect a better investing environment) and
35% operating profitability, and Diamond Hill stock is worth
$85 to $95 per share. All told, the upside potential of a $126-per-
share acquisition scenario significantly outweighs the downside
of a $70 Marty Whitman model. Furthermore, Diamond Hill
has shown a propensity for rewarding shareholders with hefty
dividends, so this stock is a solid investment.
RISKS AND WHEN WED SELL
Although asset management is an attractive business
because its asset- and capital-light, that also means theres
little to prevent a competitor from setting up shop. That makes
performance and networking critical to a companys continued
success. The most important things to watch at Diamond Hill
are the performance of its funds and the ratings they receive
from Morningstar.
-
7/30/2019 Stocks for 2011
17/33
t h e m o t l e y f o o l | S t o c k S 2 0 1 1 : t h e I n v e s t o r s G u I d e t o t h e ye a r a h e a d | p a G e 1 1
STOCKS2011Deterioration there would suggest that AUM growth could
slow or even revert. If Diamond Hills funds and particularly
the small-cap and long-short funds because they have the most
AUM underperform the market in the next one to two years,
you should think about selling your shares.
THE FOOLISH BOTTOM LINE
Diamond Hill has many of the attributes I look for in a
promising small-cap investment. Its well-run, its owners are
vested in the business, it has a track record for rewarding
shareholders with dividends, and its performed at the top of
its peer group despite a challenging economy. When the stock
market rises, investors in superior investors, such as Diamond
Hill, should be richly rewarded.
Tim Hanson is co-advisor ofMotley Fool Global Gains, the
Fools international investing research service. He owns shares
of Diamond Hill.
The Motley Fool owns shares of Morningstar.
-
7/30/2019 Stocks for 2011
18/33
STOCKS2011
p a G e 1 2 | t h e m o t l e y f o o l | S t o c k S 2 0 1 1 : t h e I n v e s t o r s G u I d e t o t h e ye a r a h e a d
Expeditors International of Washington:Shaped-Up Shipping
BY JOE MAGYER
Eureka! An idea for a revolutionary new device hits you like a thunderbolt while yourescrubbing in the shower. By the time youve put on your socks, youve already settled on
producing the device in China, lining the walls of your executive office with cedar, and
asking Leonard Nimoy to be your pitchman.
Theres just one problem, and it isnt that Spock is your spokesman. You dont know
the first thing about the nuts and bolts of global trade. You dont speak Mandarin, dont
know a lick about navigating customs, and you will probably get bullied by transporters
because you cant negotiate favorable terms.
But dont bail on your dreams of a woodsy-smelling office just yet. Expeditors
International of Washington (Nasdaq: EXPD), a global logistics solutions provider, has
been helping companies worldwide shape up their shipping for the past three decades
and making a mint for Expeditors investors while doing it. And given its strong balancesheet, asset-light model, and entrepreneurial culture, Expeditors is poised to profit from
global trade for years to come.
THE COMPANY
Expeditors doesnt own a fleet of boats or planes. Instead, it buys big blocks of
space on other companies vessels and resells that space to its clients. The joy of the
arrangement for clients is that theyre able to get lower shipping costs than if they tried
to buy the space themselves. Expeditors, meanwhile, avoids shelling out the cash it
would cost to buy a fleet.
Founded in 1979 and based in Seattle, Expeditors helps companies seamlessly and
cheaply move goods from Point A to Point B. The company offers services such as air
and ocean freight forwarding to customs brokerage and a host of international shipments-
centric services. From Hong Kong to Hanoi to Houston, Expeditors has a global reach
and positioning in virtually every major city. The company operates 183 full-service
offices, 65 satellite locations, and two international service centers on six continents.
WHY INVEST?
Expeditors capital-light business model allows it to grow without having to
reinvest much in its business. That model allows its profit to grow faster than revenue.
Historically, about 35% of Expeditors net revenue comes from air freight services, 25%
from ocean freight, and 40% from customer brokerage and other services.
Third-party logistics management has fantastic tailwinds, as lower barriers for trade
and many companies desire to outsource amplify the long-term upswing of the globaleconomy. And with Expeditors good standing in the industry thanks to its results-
oriented culture, the company should continue to benefit handsomely.
Individual Expeditors branches are considered their own profit centers, with most
compensation for branch managers coming through incentives based on that branchs
operating income. That extraordinary focus on branch-level success fosters an
entrepreneurial spirit thats a win-win-win for customers, employees, and investors.
The company is led by a straight-shooting CEO, Peter Rose, whos been in place
since 1988. Rose isnt your typical CEO, eschewing forecasts and Wall Street-style
EXPEDITORS INTERNATIONAL OFWASHINGTON
Nasdaq: EXPD
Headquarters: Seattle, Wash.
www.expeditors.com
FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
Recent P rice: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $51.78
Market Cap: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $11 billion
Dividend Yield: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8%
CAPS Rating:. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Stars
Buy Guidance:. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Below $45
Data as of 11/8/10
WHY BUY
Expeditors is a market leader poised to
proit rom outsourcing and global trade.
It has a capital-light business model that
allows the company to grow with minimal
investment.
A pristine, cash-rich balance sheet
enables the business to think and spend or
the long term.
-
7/30/2019 Stocks for 2011
19/33
t h e m o t l e y f o o l | S t o c k S 2 0 1 1 : t h e I n v e s t o r s G u I d e t o t h e ye a r a h e a d | p a G e 1 3
STOCKS2011quarterly conference calls. A recent quote from him neatly sums
up Roses style and the culture he has built:
Our philosophy these last several years has been to try to
not do anything stupid. We simply did what weve always done:
focusing on improving customer service, taking market share
by adding new customers, taking care of our people by not
doing lay-offs, and making ourselves more productive through
continued process improvement efforts. Boring consistency is
what we do best.
FINANCIALS AND VALUATION
Expeditors operating profit grew at an impressive 15%
clip during the past five years during a tumultuous economy.
At many companies, that kind of heady growth is fueled by
acquisitions. Not at Expeditors. The companys primary focus is
on organic growth. You wont hear about Expeditors overpaying
for a splashy acquisition. Thats because a large-scale deal
would introduce systems integration risks and water down the
companys entrepreneurial, customer-centric culture. And if it
aint broke, dont fix it.Expeditors balance sheet, meanwhile, is strong with no debt
and $1 billion in cash. That cash cushion makes for nice padding
if the market takes a spill, though of course it would be nice to
see some of that cash go to shareholders. To Expeditors credit,
though, it has raised its bite-sized, 0.8%-yielding dividend at a
25% clip over the past five years.
2009 2008 2007 2006Revenue $4,092.3 $5,633.9 $5,235.2 $4,634.0Net Revenue $1,382.8 $1,603.3 $1,453.0 $1,291.0Operating Profit $385.0 $473.1 $423.4 $375.1Dividend Per Share $0.38 $0.32 $0.28 $0.22
All numbers in millions except dividend. Net revenue is determined by deducting freight
consolidation and customs brokerage costs from total revenue.
Expeditors stock isnt cheap by traditional valuation metrics,
trading around 29 times analysts 2011 earnings estimates. The
stock is pricey right now, but Expeditors has always traded at a
premium. Exceptional, well-run businesses with bright futures
always do. That doesnt mean you should pay any price for
Expeditors, but snatching up shares for $45 or less is a safe,
money-making bet. Youll want to take advantage of any short-
term dips in price to get started with this stock.
RISKS AND WHEN WED SELL
Expeditors performance is tethered to global trade, meaning
its profit and stock will get hit if the global economy sputters.
Meanwhile, the fragmentation of Expeditors industry is a double-
edged sword. On the plus side, it affords a window for superior
operators such as Expeditors to more easily grab market share. On
the down side, though, competitors are more likely to use price as
a weapon, and theres a chance that aggressive pricing by even just
a few players could crimp profit industrywide.
Finally, while I love Expeditors asset-light model, its lack
of control over the full shipping chain could be a disadvantage
if full-service rivals like United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS)
get their act together or if shippers and airlines start muscling
Expeditors around.
Id also have second thoughts on the stock if Rose steps
aside or if Expeditors abandons its focus on organic growth
in favor of an acquisition-happy strategy. Expeditors isnt a
classically cheap stock, but thats not an excuse to own it at
nosebleed-section high prices. You should consider sellingExpeditors if its price-to-book ratio nears 7 thats just too
darn expensive.
THE FOOLISH BOTTOM LINE
Expeditors has great growth prospects, a fantastic culture,
and a cash-rich balance sheet. These qualities should check a
lot of boxes for long-term investors you included, so keep a
sharp eye on this outstanding business, Fools. If the stock dips
back below $45, dont hesitate to buy Expeditors in bulk.
Joe Magyer is the advisor ofInside Value, the Fools value-
driven investing service.
The Motley Fool owns shares of United Parcel Service.
-
7/30/2019 Stocks for 2011
20/33
STOCKS2011
p a G e 1 4 | t h e m o t l e y f o o l | S t o c k S 2 0 1 1 : t h e I n v e s t o r s G u I d e t o t h e ye a r a h e a d
Gap:Fall (Back) Into the Gap
BY RICH GREIFNER
Theres a fascinating phenomenon in the world of fashion, where a style of clothingcan be out of favor for so long that it eventually becomes en vogue. Its called retro
(and its the reason I refuse to part with my Zubaz pants).
A similar phenomenon occurs in the world of investing, where the stocks that Wall
Street shuns tend to produce the most attractive long-term results. Its called value
investing.
Put those two concepts together a fashion retailer thats out of favor with
consumers andinvestors and you have the makings of market-crushing returns. Its
called Gap (NYSE: GPS).
THE COMPANY
Founded in 1969, Gap sells casual apparel for men, women, and children under
the Gap, Old Navy, and Banana Republic brands. The company operates more than
3,000 stores across the globe and owns two small but growing online apparel sites,
Piperlime and Athleta.
If you bought a pair of khaki pants during the 1990s, theres a good chance youre
already familiar with the Gap story. Theres also a good chance you havent shopped
at the Gap in years, think Bananas styles are bland, wouldnt set foot in Old Navy
if it were giving away clothes, and are strongly considering moving on to the next
recommendation in this report. But before you do that, give me a minute to try to
change your mind.
Although your memory of it might be foggy today, there was a time when Gap wasubiquitous. Adam Sandler wore Gap on Saturday Night Live. Sharon Stone wore Gap at
the Academy Awards. Monica Lewinskys infamous blue dress? You guessed it Gap.
Under the leadership of merchant prince CEO Mickey Drexler, Gap could do no
wrong. Between fiscal 1994 and 2000, the companys stores more than tripled their
square footage as revenue rose 267%, to $13.7 billion. The greatest surge of all was
in Gaps stock price, which increased six-fold.
But in 2000, Drexlers designs stopped resonating with the companys core
customers, just as the economy took a turn for the worse. Although Gaps
comparable-store sales dropped for 10 consecutive quarters, the company stubbornly
continued expanding. Adding insult to injury, Gap bloated its balance sheet with abig slug of debt to fund those new stores, as well as an accelerated share buyback
program at what would later prove to be lofty prices. By the time Drexler was forced
out in 2002, Gaps stock had plummeted 70%.
Eight years and two CEOs later, Gap is still out of fashion with consumers and
investors. Sales per square foot have slumped for five straight years (and eight
of the past 10), as nimbler competitors such as H&M, Zara, and Forever 21 have
consistently offered shoppers fresher looks, while Target (NYSE: TGT) and
Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO) haven stolen the cheap-chic crowd away from Old Navy.
GAP
NYSE: GPS
Headquarters: San Francisco, Cali.
www.gap.com
FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
Recent P rice: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $20.81
Market Cap: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12.9 billion
Dividend Yield: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9%
CAPS Rating:. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Stars
Buy Guidance:. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Below $20
Data as of 11/8/10
WHY BUY
Overseas expansion should spur sales,
while a burgeoning Internet business
should propel margins to new highs.
Management is dedicated to cutting
costs and returning capital to shareholders.
The stock is out o avor, so you can snag
it on the cheap.
-
7/30/2019 Stocks for 2011
21/33
t h e m o t l e y f o o l | S t o c k S 2 0 1 1 : t h e I n v e s t o r s G u I d e t o t h e ye a r a h e a d | p a G e 1 5
STOCKS2011Tired of waiting for a turnaround to take hold, Wall Street
has all but abandoned the stock. Everyone has given up on Gap
which means its prime time for value-minded Fools to go
on a shopping spree.
WHY INVEST?
Here are three reasons Gap looks good in your portfolio:
1. Expanding margins
Current CEO Glenn Murphy hasnt been able to boost sales,
but he has done wonders behind the scenes. Gaps gross margin
has swelled by 5.4 percentage points since 2007, largely due
to disciplined inventory management that resulted in fewer
markdowns. Gaps trailing 12-month gross margin of 40.9%
represents a 3.1 percentage-point improvement over last years
level and its within spitting distance of the companys all-
time high.
Gaps operating margin has also risen steadily since Murphy
became CEO. This is partially due to strategic store closures
and a streamlined organizational structure (Gap has 50 fewer
VPs than it did three years ago), but much of the improvement
can be attributed to a sustainable source: the Internet.
Gaps Internet-based revenue has doubled over the past five
years, which is especially encouraging because these sales
come with an operating margin of 22.5%, compared with 12%
for the companys brick-and-mortar stores. In addition to the
Web commerce for Gaps big three brands, this segment also
includes sales at Piperlime, which offers fashionable footwear,
handbags, and accessories, and Athleta, a brand based on
womens athletic apparel and footwear.
Gaps 13.6% operating margin over the past 12 months is
the best performance the company has posted in a decade, but
Murphy thinks that number can be even better.
Fiscal 2006 Fiscal 2007 Fiscal 2008 Fiscal 2009Trailing 12
monthsGross margin 35.5% 36.1% 37.5% 40.3% 40.9%Operatingmargin
7.8% 8.4% 10.7% 12.9% 13.6%
Data from CapitalIQ, a division of Standard & Poors. Gaps fiscal year ends on the Saturday closest
to Jan. 31.
2. Cash is flowing
Without much need for capital expenditures (Gap is still
trimming down its store count) or inventory replenishment
(theres no need to restock what customers arent buying), free
cash has been flowing straight to shareholders pockets. Over
the past six years, the company has generated about $6 billion
in free cash flow. Over that same period, its paid out $1.25
billion in dividends and bought back $7 billion worth of shares
while simultaneously paying off all of its debt. Due to those
buybacks, Gaps share count has decreased by 30% since 2004.
3. Revenue revival?
Operationally, Gap is now a well-oiled machine. Theres only
one challenge remaining: Can the company produce clothing
that customers actually want to buy?
Last year, Gap took a step in the right direction by retooling
its outdated denim offerings. Its new 1969 line of jeans is a
significant style upgrade, and the $55 to $70 price point is a
fraction of what designer labels like True Religion (Nasdaq:
TRLG) and V.F. Corp.s (NYSE: VFC) Seven For All Mankind
charge. And straight out of the if you cant beat em, hire
em playbook, Gap has lured Sevens vice president of design,
Rosella Giuliani, to lead the 1969 brand.
In addition to denim, Gaps emphasis this year is on its new
black magic line of premium black pants. The company has
also cut its product-development time by a third, so its new
offerings will no longer be so far behind the fashion curve.
These are all smart steps, but with the North American
market largely saturated, Gaps real growth will have to come
from abroad. This year, Gap will open its first locations in Italy
and China, and the online division will start selling in Europe
and Canada. The company expects its international and online
businesses to contribute 27% of total revenue in 2013, up from
18% today.
FINANCIALS AND VALUATION
Still, its no wonder the stock market isnt giving much
credence to Gaps turnaround efforts. After all, this is hardly the
companys first attempt to round a corner and yet sales per
square foot have been in a downward spiral for the better part of
the past decade:
Investors are smart to be skeptical of Gaps latest turnaround
attempt, but theyre missing the bigger picture. The market
is pricing Gap as if its present levels of profitability will be
fleeting, but the current margins are sustainable and theres
even upside. If Gap improves at all on the top line, its stock
Sales Per Square Foot
$325
$375
$425
$475
$525
FY09
FY08
FY07
FY06
FY05
FY04
FY03
FY02
FY01
FY00
FY99
FY98
FY97
FY96
FY95
FY94
FY93
FY92
FY91
-
7/30/2019 Stocks for 2011
22/33
p a G e 1 6 | t h e m o t l e y f o o l | S t o c k S 2 0 1 1 : t h e I n v e s t o r s G u I d e t o t h e ye a r a h e a d
STOCKS2011should solidly beat the market. And if the company can boost
sales per square foot to pre-recession levels, investors will be
sitting pretty. Check out these potential growth scenarios:
Pessimisticscenario
Moderate scenario Optimistic scenario
Sales per SquareFoot
325 365 385
Operating Margin 10.8% 12.6% 14%Estimated Value per
Share $16.10 $23.00 $27.50
From the stocks current $21 price, the downside of investing
in Gap is limited (and is cushioned by the companys steady
dividend and rock-solid balance sheet) while the upside
is significant.
RISKS AND WHEN WED SELL
Gap recently made headlines when it clumsily attempted to
revamp its logo and then even-more-clumsily tried to pass the
episode off as a crowdsourcing project. Although the universal
ridicule of Gaps proposed logo resulted in some bad press, I see
it as an encouraging sign. It suggests that consumers are moreattached to the brand than their shopping habits indicate. But
I would consider selling your shares if Gap continues to make
moves that alienate its core customer base especially if the
company shifts its focus from basics and starts chasing trends.
In a similar vein, Id also consider selling if Gap committed a
significant amount of capital to developing a new concept. With
the failure of its Forth & Towne stores (the companys botched
attempt to reconnect with women who outgrew the Gap brand)
still fresh in managements mind, I doubt this will be an issue.
However, if Gap starts blowing shareholder capital on risky new
concepts or worse, overpriced acquisitions it will be time
to return your shares.
THE FOOLISH BOTTOM LINE
Telling your friends youre buying Gap shares at a cocktail
party is almost as embarrassing as wearing an Old Navy T-shirt
to said cocktail party. But thats the only reason we can buy
shares in this quality company at such a bargain price. Gap has
learned from its mistakes and is ready to reclaim its rightful
position as a respectable brand. This is a stock you should get
into before it becomes expensively en vogue.
Rich Greifner is advisor forDuke Street, the Fools premier
investing-advice service.
The Motley Fool owns shares of Aeropostale.
-
7/30/2019 Stocks for 2011
23/33
t h e m o t l e y f o o l | S t o c k S 2 0 1 1 : t h e I n v e s t o r s G u I d e t o t h e ye a r a h e a d | p a G e 1 7
STOCKS2011Li Ning:
Branding Meets BasketballBY BRYAN WHITE
Ever wonder what Olympic gymnasts do after they give up the pommel horse? Well,
1984 gold medalist and Prince of Gymnastics Li Ning has been busy building an
eponymous Chinese sportswear company, Li Ning (Pink Sheets: LNNGF.PK), for the
past 20 years.
Maybe naming the company after himself was a little over the top, but Mr. Li has
successfully created one of the few homegrown Chinese consumer brands with some
national traction. The company is the leading domestic sportswear brand in China a
country whose economic growth is measured in the double digits and whose residents
are gaga for consumer brands. Theyre also nuts about basketball. A reported 300
million Chinese residents casually play, and 450 million tune into NBA games. Thats a
hodgepodge of trends, to be sure, but by investing in Li Ning, youre getting your foot
in the door on all of them.
THE COMPANY
Li Ning focuses on selling athletic footwear throughout mainland China. Its built
up a broad supply chain, distribution system, and retail network, with more than 130
distributors and 6,800 retail outlets on the mainland. The company has the No. 1 market
share in mid-size and smaller cities and is right on the heels of international brands Nike
(NYSE: NKE) and Adidas (Pink Sheets: ADDYY.PK) in Chinas largest cities.
The company built its following in Chinas mid-size and smaller cities by selling
its shoes at a substantial discount to Nikes and Adidas offerings. Now that Li Ning
is well established, management is ready to move up the value chain and take on its
international rivals. Li Ning recently announced a brand-revitalization strategy that
includes a small change to its Nike-like logo, a shift to higher prices and moreimportantly higher-quality products. The plan is a smart one: Brand recognition and
product quality have led the way in Chinas sporting-goods industry, where consumers
have shown they are more than willing to pay up for superior sneakers.
Another important aspect of this strategy is Li Nings entrance into the U.S. market.
Its shoes have already been seen in the States through Li Nings endorsement deals
with NBA players Shaquille ONeal, Baron Davis, Jose Calderon, and last years No.
2 draft pick, Evan Turner. Now the company has established its U.S. headquarters
right in Nike and Adidas backyard, in Portland, Ore., and will sell its shoes through
select retailers, such as Eastbay and Champs. Im not counting on Li Ning becoming
a sought-after shoe brand here, but the more its recognized in the States, the better
chance it has to compete as a premium brand in China.
WHY INVEST?
But of all things, why would Chinese consumers care about owning premium
sneakers? In a word: basketball. More than 350 million Chinese residents play and
watch hoops on a regular basis. Recreational games are played at most factories across
mainland China. So an investment in Li Ning is partly a bet on the continued popularity
of basketball in the worlds most populous country. If this fascination holds, we can
expect the sportswear industry to continue its double-digit growth while the ranks of
Chinas middle class swell in the next decade.And those middle-class consumers are
LI NING
Pink Sheets: LNNGF.PK
Headquarters: Shanghai, China
www.lining.com
FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
Recent Price: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $3.00
Market Cap: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $3.2 billion
Dividend Yield: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
CAPS Rating: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Not rated
Buy Guidance: . . . . . . . . . . . . . Below $3.50
Data as of 11/8/10
WHY BUY
The Chinese sportswear market has a
long runway as the middle class purchasing
power grows.
Li Ning is well established as Chinas
most popular domestic sportswear brand.
It beneits rom the growing popularity
o basketball in China.
-
7/30/2019 Stocks for 2011
24/33
p a G e 1 8 | t h e m o t l e y f o o l | S t o c k S 2 0 1 1 : t h e I n v e s t o r s G u I d e t o t h e ye a r a h e a d
STOCKS2011extremely brand-conscious. Outside the automotive industry,
though, China doesnt have many national brands. Given
Li Nings established name and its recent strategy shift, the
company has a great opportunity to increase its popularity in
Chinas largest cities and become a truly national brand with
all the cachet and aspiring customers that go with it. If Li Ning
plays things right, it could be a shoo-in as one of Chinas biggest
brands for years to come.
FINANCIALS AND VALUATION
Li Ning has been consistently profitable for nearly 10 years
and has doubled its sales and earnings over the past three. The
company also has the best margins among its peers, including
Nike and Adidas. Gross margins are consistently in the mid to
high 40% range, and operating and net margins have grown to
16.5% and 12% in the past 12 months. The profit margin should
remain in this range even as Li Ning charges more for its shoes,
because its also paying more for better raw materials.
A glut of products has reduced the industrys growth over
the past year, and expectations for athletic apparel makers including Li Ning have been reduced for the next 18 months.
But in Li Nings case, management thinks this has more to do
with its strategic shift and new logo, which could lead to major
discounts or even inventory writedowns. Industry-wide, the glut
has mostly worked its way out of the system, with only Adidas
experiencing lingering inventory problems. Industry growth
should resume its typical 20% rate in 2012, thanks in part to the
summer Olympics. Still, Li Nings inventory turnover has been
steadily improving, as has its average cash-conversion cycle.
McKinsey research estimates that between now and 2015,
50% of Chinas population will be in the middle class, up from
todays 35%. Thats more than 50 million additional households
that could start buying Li Ning shoes so at 20 times trailing
earnings and free cash flow, our hurdle for success with this stock
is low.
Over the next three years, concerns about Li Nings strategic
shift should dissipate, and the stock should revert to more
historical multiples, eventually hitting $5 a share. It could rise
even higher depending on how long the company can grow
and I think it has much longer legs than the market is giving it
credit for.
Whats more, Li Ning knows how to take care of