Stock Smart Weekly (Feb 07, 2014)

8/13/2019 Stock Smart Weekly (Feb 07, 2014)

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AKD [email protected]

009221 111 253 111

Weekly Review

The market remained sluggish as the KSE-100 Index shed 0.38%WoW to end at 26,682

points on Friday, failing to sustain its high after closing at 26,863 points on Thursday.

Average daily turnover came off by 5.33%WoW to 284mn shares but this remains a

healthy run rate. Key news flows during the week included 1) low CPI reading for Jan14

where CPI clocked in at 7.9%YoY, 2) recommendation by the Senate Standing Commit-

tee to abolish GST on tractors, 3) announcement by the PTA Chairman that the PTA is

targeting the third week of Mar14 for the 3G/4G auction and 4) MoP proposal to deregu-

late prices of petroleum products. At the same time, political noise picked up this week as

negotiations between the TTP nominated committee and GoP representatives com-

menced. Within our coverage, key gainers during the week were DAWH (+12.4%WoW),

EPCL (+6.9%WoW), FATIMA (+2.7%WoW), MTL (+2.3%WoW) and AGTL (+1.1%WoW).

On the flipside, the main losers during the week included POL (-4.1%WoW), SSGC (-

4.0%WoW), HMB (-3.9%WoW), HCAR (-3.2%WoW) and ICI (-2.9%WoW). Volumes dur-

ing the week were led by JSCL (164.07mn shares), ANL (71.29mn shares), FCCL

(43.61mn shares), BYCO (36.61mn shares) and EFERT (32.23mn shares).

St ockSmar tAKD Equity Research / Pakistan

Pakistan Weekly Update

Important disclosures including investment banking relationships and analyst certification at end of this report. AKD Securities does and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investorsshould consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Important disclosures

Copyright2014 AKD Securities Limited. All rights reserved. The information provided on this document is not intendedfor distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would becontrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities or its affiliates to any registration requirement withinsuch jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitationor offer by AKD Securities or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or provide any investment advice or service. AKDSecurities does not warrant the accuracy of the information provided herein.

www.akdsecurities.net

AKD SECURITIESMember: Karachi Stock Exchange

Find AKD research on Bloomberg(AKDS), firstcall.com

and Reuters Knowledge

The Pakistan Market remains largely secluded from global developments (e.g. tapering

QE3 by the US Fed). As such, market movement will likely be driven by the result season

picking pace where major results coming next week include the Nishat Group companies

including MCB, NPL, DGKC and NML as well as ENGRO and ABL. Progress on the GoP

-TTP talks is also likely to garner investor attention.

Outlook

Index & Volume Chart

Source: KSE & AKD Research

Universe Gainers & Losers

7 February 2014

Top-5 Volum e Leaders

Sym bol Volum e (m n)

JSCL : 164.07

ANL : 71.29

FCCL : 43.61

BYCO : 36.61

EFERT : 32.23

5.0%

3.0%

1.0%

1.0%

3.0%

5.0%

7.0%

9.0%

11.0%

13.0%

DAWH

EPCL

FATIMA

MTL

AGTL IC

I

HCAR

HMB

SSGC

POL

26,682

26,863

26,75126,946

230,000

240,000

250,000

260,000

270,000

280,000

290,000

300,000

310,000

3Feb 4Feb 6Feb 7Feb

(Shrs'000)

26,500

26,550

26,600

26,650

26,700

26,750

26,80026,850

26,900

26,950

27,000

(Index)

Read Volume LHS KSE100Index RHS

Indices KSE-100 KSE-30

This week 26,681.78 19,255.94

Last week 26,784.34 19,296.75

Change -0.38% -0.21%

Indices KMI-30 Allshare

This week 44,090.97 19,881.18

Last week 44,186.56 20,244.31

Change -0.22% -1.79%

Mkt Cap. PkRbn US$bn

This week 6,482.33 61.51

Last week 6,607.30 62.65

Change -1.89% -1.83%

Avg. Daily Turnover ('mn shares)

This week 283.53

Last week 299.49

Change -5.33%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Feb-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

(mn) (Index)

15,000

16,300

17,600

18,900

20,200

21,500

22,800

24,100

25,400

26,700

28,000

Volume (LHS) KSE- 100 Index


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AKD Securities Limited

7 February 2014

StockSmart


This Weeks Daily Reports

2

Feb 07, 2014

Feb 06, 2014

Banks CY13 Universe Result Preview, AKD Daily (Feb 07, 2014)

Banking sector results will start coming in from next week with MCB and ABL sched-uled to announce their full-year CY13 results on Tuesday, Feb 11'14. Going by prece-dence, the rest of the major banks should announce their results in the ongoing monthas well. In this regard, the Big-6 banks in our coverage are projected to post combinedNPAT of PkR91.0bn in CY13E vs. combined NPAT of PkR95.9bn in CY12, translatinginto a decline of 5%YoY (ex-NBP: +0.3%YoY). Key trends visible in full-year results areexpected to be 1) decline in NII largely due to margin contraction, 2) a sharp decline inloan provisions (with the exception of NBP), 3) modest 5%YoY growth in non-interestincome and 4) in-control admin expense growth of ~10%YoY. We flag the possibility ofnet provisioning reversals in 4QCY13, which may potentially lead to positive earningssurprises. However, payout announcements should largely be on track. At current lev-els, we retain our preference for UBL (TP: PkR145/share), ABL (TP: PkR95/share) andNBP (TP: PkR62.5/share).

Cement Dispatches Jan'14/7MFY14, AKD Daily (Feb 06, 2014)Cement dispatches for Jan'14 increased by 2.6%YoY to clock in at 2.73mn tons.Growth was largely led by a sharp 26.1%YoY increase in exports via sea resulting in anoverall increase in exports of 7.6%YoY to clock in at 563k tons. Growth in local dis-patches on the other hand remained subdued, posting an increase of 1.3%YoY to2.16mn tons. As a result, total 7MFY14 dispatches clocked in at 18.86mn tons postinga tepid increase of 1.3%YoY. Local dispatches grew by 2.1%YoY to 14.15mn tonswhile exports posted a decline of 0.8%YoY to 4.71mn tons. Decline in exports to Af-ghanistan will likely continue to be a drag on dispatch growth where competition fromIranian cements and slow pace of progress on development projects in Afghanistanhave been holding back growth. The declining proportion of sales to Afghanistan(7MFY14 share of 48% vs. 7MY13 share of 56%) and a dip in exports post a potentialUS troop withdrawal may force manufacturers to look to the South for future expan-sions / consolidations.

Banks: Susceptib le to lul l in rate hike cycle, AKD Daily (Feb 04, 2014)

CPI inflation for Jan'14 has clocked in at 7.91%YoY, higher than our projected 7.5%YoY, but sharply lower than 9.18%YoY in Dec'13. This deceleration is largely attribut-able to a downtick in food inflation (+6.7%YoY/-0.1%MoM) and a contained 1.5%MoMincrease in the housing & utilities category. As a result, the 7MFY14 CPI averagecomes to 8.6%YoY. At the same time, Core CPI (trimmed mean) also depicted a down-ward trend to clock in at 8.2%YoY in Jan'14 versus 8.7%YoY in Dec'13 and 9.9%YoYin Jan'13. Going forward even if CPI increases by 0.8%MoM, the full-year averageshould still fall within single digits (~9%YoY). Considering the Discount Rate alreadystands at 10% and the PkR has depicted stability of late, we believe the SBP is likelyhold interest rates in the Mar'14 MPS. For our Banks Universe, we have incorporatedan average DR of 10.5% for CY14F where a reduction in this to 10% will, all else thesame, reduce our CY14F Universe proft estimates by 8% on average. For now how-ever, we leave base-case estimates unchanged where risks to resumption of monetarytightening emanate from 1) inordinate delay in targeted foreign flows, 2) snags in theprivatization process and 3) continued high GoP borrowing from the central bank.

Pakistan Market: Jan14 Review & Outlook, AKD Daily (Feb 03, 2014)

The market welcomed the new year with its bullish theme intact as the benchmark KSE-100 Index gained 6.03%MoM in Jan'14 to close at 26,784 points. In the process, theIndex has returned 27.5%FY14TD, on track to reach our base case Jun'14 Index targetof 27,800 points (bull case Index target: 29,700). Despite the strong performance, Paki-stan continues to be attractive on valuations with an FY14F P/E of 8.6x compared toregional average of 11.2x. At the same time, Pakistan's dividend yield at 5.9% far ex-ceeds the regional average of 3.4%. In terms of corporate developments, key headlinesin the month included i) hike in GIDC for industrial sectors, ii) approval of concessionarygas rate for Engro Fertilizer and iii) announcement by the Chinese group ShandongRuyi of investing US$2bn in the textile and energy sectors of Pakistan. At the sametime, lower than expected inflation reading with Dec'13 CPI clocking in at 9.18%YoYbuoyed market sentiment. Despite the positives, the market may potentially be heading

26,600

26,649

26,698

26,747

26,796

26,845

26,894

26,943

9:15

9:59

10:43

11:27

12:10

12:53

13:36

14:19

15:03

15:48

Source:KSE&AKDResearch

Feb 03, 2014

26,730

26,755

26,780

26,805

26,830

26,855

26,880

26,905

9:30

10:22

11:13

12:04

12:54

13:45

14:37

15:29

Feb 04, 2014

26,760

26,793

26,826

26,859

26,892

26,925

26,958

26,991

9:29

10:22

11:13

12:04

12:54

13:45

14:35

15:26

26,650

26,685

26,720

26,755

26,790

26,825

26,860

26,895

9:29

10:22

11:13

12:04

12:54

13:44

14:34

15:25


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7 February 2014

StockSmart


This Weeks Daily Reports

3

down correction territory with the MSCI EM Index down 3.7% over the past two weeks.

Taking cue, frontier markets have also underperformed with the MSCI FM Index down1.2% over the past two weeks, where we may see a trickle down impact on the KSE-100 Index as well. At current levels, we advocate a cautious stance in Feb'14 whereour preferred stocks include a blend of growth (NML, DGKC, FATIMA) and high D/Y(HUBC, KAPCO, NBP).


4/10


7 February 2014

StockSmart


4

Commodities

International Major Currencies

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Major World Indices Performance

Source: Bloomberg

TRJ-CRB Index

Source: Bloomberg

PkR/US$ Trend

Source: Bloomberg

Regional Valuatio ns (2014)

Source: Bloomberg & AKD Universe

270

275

280

285

290

295

300

Feb-1

3

Mar-1

3

Apr-1

3

May-1

3

Jun-1

3

Jul-1

3

Aug-1

3

Sep-1

3

Oct-1

3

Nov-1

3

Dec-1

3

Jan-1

4

Feb-1

4

EPSGrowth PE(x)Pakistan 22% 8.56

Indonesia 13% 10.55

Malaysia 17% 11.65

Philippines 9% 14.49

Vitenam 16% 14.36

India 19% 12.53

China 15% 6.93

% ROE DivdYldPakistan 21.38 5.82

Indonesia 18.76 2.54

Malaysia 13.64 3.51

P hi li ppi ne s 1 4.7 3 2.58

Vitenam 18.47 n.a

India 17.50 1.94

China 14.02 4.04

97.0

98.0

99.0

100.0

101.0

102.0

103.0

104.0

105.0

106.0

107.0

108.0

109.0

Feb-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

SPOT Units 7Feb14 31Jan14 WoW CYTD

TRJCRB Points 287.22 283.31 1.38% 2.52%

Nymex(WTI) US$/bbl. 97.6 97.49 0.11% 0.83%

ICEBrent US$/bbl. 107.02 107.2 0.17% 3.43%

N.Gas HenryHub US$/Mmbtu 7.1767 5.0098 43.25% 65.21%

Cotton USd/Pound 92.3 92.75 0.49% 2.90%

Gold US$/Tr.Oz 1261.67 1244.55 1.38% 4.65%

Sliver US$/Tr.Oz 19.883 19.1775 3.68% 2.13%

Copper

US$/MT 7178 7096 1.16%

2.68%Platinum US$/Oz 1387.5 1379.38 0.59% 1.32%

Coal US$/MT 79.9 79.9 0.00% 5.56%

SPOT 7Feb14 31Jan14 Chg+/ WoW CYTD

DollarIndex 80.973 81.311 0.338 0.42% 1.17%

USD/PkR 105.370 105.470 0.100 0.09% 0.04%

USD/JPY 102.260 102.040 0.220 0.22% 2.90%

EUR/USD 1.357 1.349 0.008 0.62% 1.26%

GBP/USD 1.634 1.644 0.010 0.60% 1.30%

AUD/USD 0.894 0.876 0.018 2.08% 0.24%

NZD/USD 0.825 0.809 0.016 1.99% 0.40%

CHF/USD 0.902 0.907 0.005 0.54% 0.97%

CAD/USD 1.107 1.113 0.006 0.55% 4.18%

USD/KRW 1,074 1,081 6.520 0.60% 2.35%

CNY/USD 6.064 6.061 0.003 0.04% 0.16%

Country BloombergCode 7Feb14 31Jan14 WoW CYTD

Pakistan KSE100Index 26,682 26,784 0.38% 5.62%

Srilanka CSEALL

Index 6,142

6,248

1.70% 3.87%Thailand SETIndex 1,296 1,274 1.74% 0.17%

Jakarta JCIIndex 4,467 4,419 1.08% 4.50%

Malaysia FBMKLCIIndex 1,809 1,804 0.25% 3.13%

Philippines PCOMPIndex 6,011 6,041 0.50% 2.06%

Vietnam VNINDEXIndex 550 557 1.21% 8.94%

HongKong HSIIndex 21,637 22,035 1.81% 7.16%

Singapore FSSTIIndex 3,013 3,027 0.47% 4.87%

Brazil IBXIndex 19,644 19,560 0.43% 7.75%

Russia RTSSTDIndex 9,966 9,829 1.39% 2.07%

India SENSEXIndex 20,377 20,514 0.67% 3.75%

China SHCOMPIndex 2,044 2,033 0.56% 3.38%

S&P SPXIndex 1,773 1,783 0.51% 4.05%

DJIA INDUIndex 15,629 15,699 0.45% 5.72%

NASDAQComposite CCMPIndex 4,057 4,104 1.14% 2.86%

UK UKXIndex 6,570 6,510 0.91% 2.66%

German DAXIndex 9,285 9,306 0.23% 2.80%

Qatar DSMIndex 11,192 11,156 0.33% 7.83%

AbuDhabi ADSMIIndex 4,722 4,673 1.04% 10.06%

Dubai DFMGIIndex 3,931 3,770 4.27% 16.67%

Kuwait KWSEIDXIndex 7,832 7,756 0.98% 3.74%

Oman MSM30Index 7,107 7,087 0.27% 3.98%

SaudiArabia SASEIDXIndex 8,819 8,761 0.67% 3.32%

MSCIEM MXEFIndex 930 937 0.72% 7.27%

MSCIFM MXFMIndex 602 600 0.35% 1.20%


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7 February 2014

StockSmart


Chart Bank

FIPI Flows for the week

2,997

980

275

2,625

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

03Feb14 04Feb14 06Feb14 07Feb14

(US$'000)

Advance to Decline Ratio

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

Feb

13

Apr13

Jun

13

Aug

13

Oct

13

Dec

13

Feb

14

AKD Universe vs. KSE-100 Index

3%

2%

7%

12%

17%

22%27%

32%

37%

42%

47%

52%

Feb13 May13 Aug13 Nov13 Feb14

KSEAll ShareIndex AKDUniverse

LIPI Flows for the week

Others,

(9.32)

Ind.,0.10

Co., (2.22)

Bank/DFI,

4.24

NBFC,4.70

M.Funds,

(11.11)

(10.00)

(8.00)

(6.00)

(4.00)

(2.00)

2.00

4.00

6.00

(US$mn)

Earnings Yield vs. T-Bill (12M) Differential

(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Jun

07

Dec

07

Jul08

Jan

09

Aug

09

Mar

10

Sep

10

Apr

11

Oct

11

May

12

Dec

12

Jun

13

Jan

14

(%)

KSE-100 vs. MSCI-EM & MSCI-FM

15%

5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

55%

65%

75%

Ja

n

13

Mar13

Ju

n

13

Aug

13

No

v

13

Fe

b

14

KSE100MSCIEM

MSCIFM


6/10

6

AKD Securities Limited StockSmart


AKD Universe Valuations

Market PER Chart 2014F

Source: AKD Research

Market P/BVS Chart 2014F



7 February 2014

Jul05

Sep

06

Dec

07

Mar

09

May

10

Aug

11

Nov

12

Jan

14

15

11

8

4

(x)

Jul0

5

Sep0

6

Dec0

7

Mar0

9

May1

0

Aug

11

Nov1

2

Jan1

4

(x)

3.5

2.6

1.7

0.8

7Feb14 2011A 2012A 2013A/E 2014F 2015F

EPS(PkR) 8.12 8.75 9.68 11.82 13.88

EPSchg(%) 24.30 7.72 10.59 22.14 17.39

EPSchg(%)ExFinancials 25.15 6.72 18.50 26.51 19.23

BookValueperShare(PkR) 38.13 43.80 49.35 55.30 61.96

Payout(%) 52.26 50.74 51.57 49.87 47.16

Valuations

PricetoEarnings(x) 12.46 11.56 10.46 8.56 7.3

PricetoBook(x) 2.65 2.31 2.05 1.83 1.63

PER(x)ExFinancials 13.42 12.57 10.61 8.39 7.03

P/BVS(x)ExFinancials 3.24 2.85 2.42 2.11 1.86

PricetoCF(x) 20.43 21.64 10.84 19.12 11.78

EarningsYield(%) 8.03 8.65 9.56 11.68 13.71

DividendYield(%) 4.20 4.39 4.93 5.82 6.47

EV/EBITDA(x) 7.93 7.01 6.17 5.37 4.74

Profitability

ReturnonEquity(%) 21.31 19.98 19.61 21.38 22.40

ReturnonAssets (%) 3.85 3.56 3.81 4.12 4.39

ChginSales(%) 17.34 17.28 6.12 13.68 10.52

GrossMargin(%) 23.41 21.79 22.80 22.36 22.85

OperatingMargin(%) 14.47 12.95 13.99 13.85 14.61

NetMargin(%) 11.38 10.46 10.90 11.71 12.44


7/10

7



AKD Universe Active Coverage Clusters Valuations


7 February 2014

Stocks Symbol Price TP Stance EPS(PkR) PE(x) PB(x) DY(%)

(PkR) (PkR) 12A 13A/E 14F 12A 13A/E 14F 12A13A/E 14F 12A13A/E 14FAutomobileandPartsIndusMotors INDU 377.2 384.29 Neutral 54.7 42.7 49.1 6.9 8.8 7.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 8.5 6.6 6.4

PakSuzukiMotors PSMC 163.8 173.46 Accumulate 11.9 24.3 21.7 13.8 6.8 7.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.5 3.1 2.4

ConstructionandMaterialsDGKhanCement DGKC 96.1 105.47 Accumulate 9.4 12.6 12.1 10.2 7.6 7.9 1.3 0.9 0.8 1.6 3.1 3.1

ChemicalsEngroPolymerChemicals EPCL 16.1 16.49 Neutral 0.1 1.1 1.1 138.4 15.1 14.0 1.7 1.5 1.4

ICIPakistanLimited ICI 311.7 228.39 Sell 10.5 7.4 17.8 29.6 41.9 17.5 2.8 2.8 2.5 1.8 1.6 2.9

LotteChemicalPakistanLtd. LOTCHEM 7.2 8.53 Accumulate 0.0 (0.3) 0.6 n.m n.m 12.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 3.5

EngroCorporation ENGRO 176.3 196.20 Accumulate 2.6 18.7 22.9 67.6 9.4 7.7 2.1 1.2 1.1

EngroFertilizersLimited EFERT 49.1 55.45 Accumulate (2.3) 4.2 5.6 (21.7) 11.6 8.7 4.0 2.9 2.2

DawoodHerculesLimited DAWH 76.0 71.83 Reduce 2.0 9.2 13.1 37.2 8.2 5.8 1.9 n.a n.a 1.3

FaujiFert.BinQasimLtd. FFBL 42.8 49.33 Accumulate 4.6 6.0 6.6 9.2 7.1 6.5 3.2 2.5 2.6 10.5 12.8 14.6

FaujiFertilizerCompany FFC 114.0 138.62 Buy 16.4 15.8 16.4 7.0 7.2 6.9 6.6 6.0 5.8 13.6 14.0 14.3

FatimaFertilizer FATIMA 29.1 35.09 Buy 2.9 4.1 5.0 10.0 7.2 5.8 2.1 1.8 1.5 6.9 6.9 6.9

FoodProducers

EngroFoodsLimited EFOODS 102.1 80.92 Sell 3.4 0.3 2.6 30.2 371.1 39.3 7.8 6.8 5.8

Oil&GasOil&GasDevelopmentCo. OGDC 273.4 265.50 Neutral 21.6 21.1 27.6 12.6 13.0 9.9 4.4 3.6 2.9 2.7 3.0 4.2

PakOilfields POL 508.0 612.57 Buy 50.1 45.8 59.1 10.1 11.1 8.6 3.4 3.5 3.2 10.3 8.9 9.1

PakistanStateOil PSO 343.8 335.18 Neutral 36.7 50.8 76.8 9.4 6.8 4.5 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.6 1.5 2.9

ElectricityHubPowerCo. HUBC 63.0 77.41 Buy 7.1 8.1 9.6 8.9 7.8 6.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 9.5 12.7 14.3

KotAdduPowerCompany KAPCO 64.7 63.00 Neutral 6.9 8.4 9.1 9.4 7.7 7.1 2.4 2.3 2.3 10.7 11.6 13.5

FixedLineTelecommunicationPakistanTelecommunication PTC 28.8 32.5 Accumulate 2.2 2.9 3.4 13.0 9.9 8.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 6.8 8.5

PersonalGoodsNishatMills NML 135.9 141.38 Neutral 10.0 16.6 19.0 13.5 8.2 7.1 1.3 0.8 0.7 2.6 2.9 3.7

NishatChunianLtd. NCL 64.2 61.61 Neutral 3.5 11.4 14.8 18.4 5.6 4.3 2.1 1.6 1.2 2.6 2.8 7.0

BanksAlliedBankLimited ABL 87.0 95.03 Accumulate 11.4 10.7 11.0 7.6 8.1 7.9 1.8 1.5 1.4 6.8 6.3 6.9

BankAlFalah BAFL 27.7 26.95* Accumulate 3.4 3.3 3.8 8.2 8.3 7.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 7.2 5.4 6.3

HabibBankLimited HBL 165.0 154.97 Reduce 16.7 16.3 18.2 9.9 10.1 9.1 1.7 1.6 1.5 4.1 5.2 5.8

MCBBankLimited MCB 283.0 255.00 Reduce 20.9 22.2 22.4 13.5 12.7 12.7 2.7 2.5 2.3 4.2 4.9 5.3

NationalBankofPakistan NBP 58.1 62.50 Accumulate 7.9 5.7 8.0 7.4 10.3 7.2 0.8 0.8 0.7 10.5 7.7 9.5

UnitedBankLtd UBL 134.1 145.00 Accumulate 15.7 15.0 15.9 8.5 8.9 8.4 1.6 1.6 1.4 6.3 6.3 6.7

*TPforBAFLrisestoPkR30/shareuponsuccessfulWaridstakesale


8/10

8


7 February 2014

StockSmart


AKD Universe Coverage Clusters Performance

Stocks Sym bol Pr ice 1 Year 1 Year

7-Feb-14 1M 3M 6M 12M CYTD High Low

KSE-100 Index 26681.78 1.6 14.9 14.8 53.5 5.6 27104.70 17492.00

Industrial Engineer ing

Al-Ghazi Tractor AGTL 206.27 -4.0 3.2 -5.6 -11.7 -2.9 235.93 197.00

Millat Tractors MTL 473.61 -3.5 -0.4 -6.8 -9.1 -1.8 519.58 433.73

Au to m ob ile and Par ts

Indus Motors INDU 377.20 7.0 13.9 5.1 32.4 13.3 398.10 282.00

Pak Suzuki Motors PSMC 163.83 -1.1 33.8 8.9 72.1 6.5 167.70 97.29

Construction and Materials

DG Khan Cement DGKC 96.07 4.4 32.4 11.0 71.4 12.1 95.63 57.89

Lucky Cement LUCK 308.69 -1.9 19.4 34.7 95.9 2.9 321.67 160.97

Chemicals

Engro Polymer Chemicals EPCL 16.06 2.2 28.8 25.2 53.8 19.8 16.66 9.29

ICI Pakistan Limited ICI 311.73 19.8 85.1 88.9 106.5 23.2 298.25 135.37

Lotte Pakistan PTA Limited LOTCHEM 7.15 -7.1 8.7 -6.0 -6.2 -2.6 8.89 6.46

Daw ood Hercules DAWH 75.99 27.1 43.3 36.0 123.4 35.4 69.01 35.76

Engro Chemical ENGRO 176.34 3.7 32.4 20.7 86.7 11.3 186.91 94.44

Fatima Fertilizer FATIMA 29.10 -2.0 7.9 17.2 13.1 1.9 30.16 21.29

Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. FFBL 42.83 -3.6 8.6 3.4 12.4 -2.2 45.42 36.90

Fauji Fertilizer Company FFC 114.01 -1.8 2.6 4.6 -4.1 1.8 119.75 101.90

Food Produ cers

Engro Foods Limited EFOODS 102.13 -12.9 16.6 -18.5 -13.0 -2.2 162.22 80.37

Non Life Ins ur ance

Adamjee Insurance AICL 39.61 4.2 51.3 28.2 59.6 6.0 40.37 23.57

Oil & Gas

Oil & Gas Development Co. OGDC 273.36 -4.3 2.4 9.2 40.9 -1.1 287.84 197.32

Pak Oilf ields POL 508.00 -1.1 8.9 -3.1 8.3 2.1 531.92 435.37

Pakistan State Oil PSO 343.78 1.7 17.6 -2.3 80.6 3.5 367.10 184.67

Electricity

Hub Pow er Co. HUBC 62.96 -1.4 0.8 -7.5 28.0 3.7 73.42 50.13

Kot Addu Pow er Company KAPCO 64.70 2.4 7.1 10.2 19.6 4.8 68.34 49.53

Fixed Line Telecomm unication

Pakistan Telecommunication PTC 28.81 -2.2 5.8 7.3 48.0 1.3 31.70 17.46

Personal Goods

Nisaht (Chunian) Ltd. NCL 64.20 1.7 21.2 3.1 70.5 6.6 68.82 43.31

Nishat Mills NML 135.89 1.2 36.1 32.0 108.5 6.8 140.79 67.46

Banks

Allied Bank Limited ABL 87.04 -3.8 3.3 10.9 30.3 -3.3 94.51 55.01

Askari Bank Limited AKBL 14.00 0.1 29.0 8.9 -10.3 0.0 16.15 10.76

Bank AlFalah BAFL 27.69 0.7 12.8 27.4 48.2 2.4 28.66 14.77

Habib Bank Limited HBL 165.01 1.1 10.6 -0.1 54.8 -1.0 181.57 88.00

Habib Metropolitan Bank HMB 24.50 -4.1 9.0 29.4 32.4 -2.3 26.16 14.61

MCB Bank Limited MCB 283.04 -2.5 -3.1 1.0 47.3 0.7 316.87 183.00

Meezan Bank Limited MEBL 38.17 -2.1 -0.9 4.0 46.1 -3.1 40.87 24.11

National Bank of Pakistan NBP 58.09 -0.9 13.8 1.3 29.7 0.1 59.45 37.66

United Bank Ltd UBL 134.08 -1.4 5.0 7.7 46.4 1.2 154.21 82.16

Absolut e Per fo rm ance (%)

Source: KSE & AKD Research


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7 February 2014

StockSmart


Economic Snapshot

Source: SBP, PBS & AKD Research

End Month Data Units Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr -13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul -13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13

T-bill

3M % 9.20 9.37 9.42 9.41 9.26 8.93 9.00 9.15 9.47 9.63 9.93

6M % 9.32 9.46 9.44 9.42 9.16 9.01 9.20 9.35 9.68 9.88 10.02

12M % 9.37 9.47 9.46 9.43 9.19 9.03 9.34 9.48 9.81 9.96 10.12

PIB 10Y % 11.99 12.00 11.92 11.25 10.86 11.57 11.97 12.28 12.83 12.93 12.90

KIBOR 6M % 9.43 9.54 9.58 9.60 9.39 9.08 9.15 9.29 9.55 9.52 10.13

Discount rate % 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.50 9.50 10.00 10.00

Inflation

Headline inflation % 7.40 6.60 5.80 5.10 5.90 8.26 8.55 7.40 9.10 10.90 9.18

Core inflation % 9.6 9.00 8.70 8.10 7.80 8.20 8.50 8.70 8.40 8.50 8.20

Food inflation % 7.4 6.30 5.50 6.50 7.90 9.20 10.30 7.90 9.80 13.00 9.30

External Indicators

Export (PBS) US$ (mn)1,835 2,134 2,130 2,175 2,197 2,095 1,996 2,622 1,864 1,804 2,275

Import (PBS) US$ (mn)3,383 3,687 3,909 4,346 3,940 3,814 3,572 3,791 3,281 3,651 3,561

Trade Deficit (PBS) US$ (mn)(1,548) (1,553) (1,779) (2,171) (1,743) (1,719) (1,576) (1,169) (1,417) (1,847) (1,286)

Home Remittances US$ (mn)1,028 1,119 1,216 1,186 1,165 1,404 1,233 1,283 1,348 1,131 1,385

Current Account US$ (mn)(596) (513) (354) (346) (163) 46 (575) (574) (166) (572) 285

Banking SectorDeposits PkR (bn)

6,645 6,777 6,709 6,950 7,316 7,069 7,174 7,125 7,133 7,309.45 7,529.37

Advances PkR (bn)3,868 3,873 3,857 3,906 3,869 3,788 3,817 3,831 3,921 4,008.03 4,071.47

Investments PkR (bn)3,909 4,024 3,893 3,942 4,129 3,837 3,708 3,873 3,776 4,035.48 4,069.80

Weighted avg lending rate %11.52 11.50 11.42 11.49 11.36 11.28 11.11 11.10 11.10 11.13 11.07

Weighted avg deposit rate %5.34 5.26 5.23 5.15 5.01 4.97 4.83 4.79 4.90 4.89 5.05

Spread rate %6.18 6.24 6.19 6.34 6.35 6.31 6.28 6.31 6.20 6.24 6.02

Public Finance

Tax collection PkR (mn) 140,264 190,357 153,199 173,268 267,608 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a

Direct taxes PkR (mn)48,743 78,649 48,462 60,982 128,889

n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a

Indirect Taxes PkR (mn)91,521 111,708 104,737 112,286 138,719

n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a

Currency

Reserves (RHS) US$ (mn)12,936 12,250 11,812 11,474 11,020 10,287 9,998 9,995 9,525 8,238 8,168

USDPkR - Interbank PkR/USD98.16 98.42 98.48 98.52 98.94 101.90 104.51 105.24 106.89 107.56 107.13


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DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS

This publication/communication or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of AKD Securities

Limited. AKD Securities Limited has produced this report for private circulation to professional and institutional clients only. The information,opinions and estimates herein are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction where doing sowould be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities Limited to any additional registration or licensing requirementwithin such jurisdiction. The information and statistical data herein have been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable and complied byour research department in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified and we make no representation or warranty as toits accuracy, completeness or correctness. Any opinions or estimates herein reflect the judgment of AKD Securities Limited at the date of thispublication/ communication and are subject to change at any time without notice.

This report is not a solicitation or any offer to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned herein. It is for information purposes only and is notintended to provide professional, investment or any other type of advice or recommendation and does not take into account the particular invest-ment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual recipients. Before acting on any information in this publication/communication, youshould consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice. Neither AKD SecuritiesLimited nor any of its affiliates or any other person connected with the company accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequentialloss arising from any use of this report or the information contained therein.

Subject to any applicable laws and regulations, AKD Securities Limited, its affiliates or group companies or individuals connected with AKDSecurities Limited may have used the information contained herein before publication and may have positions in, may from time to time pur-

chase or sell or have a material interest in any of the securities mentioned or related securities or may currently or in future have or have had arelationship with, or may provide or have provided investment banking, capital markets and/or other services to, the entities referred to herein,their advisors and/or any other connected parties.

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Any recipient, other than a U.S. recipient that wishes further information should contact the company.

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Analyst CertificationWe, the AKD Research Team, hereby individually & jointly certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our per-sonal views about the subject securities and issuers. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is,or will be, directly or indirectly,related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. We further certify that we do not have any beneficial holdingof the specific securities that we have recommendations on in this report.

AKD Research Team

Analyst Tel no. E-mail Coverage

Naveed Vakil +92 111 253 111 (692) [email protected] Director - Research & Business Development

Raza Jafri, CFA +92 111 253 111 (693) [email protected] Pakistan Economy & Commercial Banks

Usman Zahid +92 111 253 111 (693) [email protected] E&P, FMCGs & Fertilizer

Anum Dhedhi +92 111 253 111 (637) [email protected] Pakistan Economy

Raza Hamdani +92 111 253 111 (693) [email protected] Fertilizer, Oil Marketing & Power

Bilal Alvi +92 111 253 111 (647) [email protected] Textiles, Cements & Chemical

Qasim Anwar +92 111 253 111 (680) [email protected] Technical Analysis

Hassan Quadri +92 111 253 111 (639) [email protected] Research Production / Autos

Azher Ali Quli +92 111 253 111 (646) [email protected] Research Production

Nasir Khan +92 111 253 111 (646) [email protected] Research Production

Tariq Mehmood +92 111 253 111 (643) [email protected] Library Operations

7 February 2014

Stock Smart Weekly (Feb 07, 2014)

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Transcript of Stock Smart Weekly (Feb 07, 2014)