Stewart - Prevalence of Migraine HA in the US -JAMA 1992.pdf

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7/23/2019 Stewart - Prevalence of Migraine HA in the US -JAMA 1992.pdf http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/stewart-prevalence-of-migraine-ha-in-the-us-jama-1992pdf 1/6 Prevalence  of  Migraine  Headache in  the  United  States Relation  to  Age,  Income,  Race,  and  Other Sociodemographic  Factors Walter  F.  Stewart,  PhD,  MPH;  Richard  B.  Lipton,  MD;  David  D.  Celentano,  ScD;  Michael  L.  Reed,  PhD Objective.\p=m-\To describe  the magnitude  and  distribution of  the  public  health problem posed by migraine  in  the United States  by  examining migraine prevalence, attack  frequency,  and  attack-related  disability by gender,  age,  race,  household  in- come,  geographic  region,  and  urban  vs  rural residence. Design.\p=m-\In 1989,  a  self-administered  questionnaire  was  sent  to  a  sample  of 15000  households. A designated  member of  each  household  initially  responded to the questionnaire.  Each  household member  with  severe headache  was asked to  respond  to  detailed  questions  about  symptoms,  frequency,  and  severity  of headaches. Setting.\p=m-\A sample  of  households  selected from  a  panel  to  be  representative of the  US  population  in  terms of age, gender,  household size,  and  geographic  area. Participants.\p=m-\After a  single  mailing,  20468  subjects  (63.4%  response  rate) between 12  and  80  years  of age  responded  to  the survey.  Respondents  and  non\x=req-\ respondents  did  not  differ  by gender,  household  income,  region  of  the country,  or urban vs  rural  status.  Whites and  the  elderly  were more  likely  to  respond.  Migraine headache  cases  were  identified  on  the  basis of  reported  symptoms  using  estab- lished  diagnostic  criteria. Results.\p=m-\17.6%  of females and  5.7% of  males were found to have  one or more migraine  headaches  per year.  The  prevalence  of  migraine  varied  considerably by age  and  was  highest  in  both  men and  women  between the  ages  of  35 to  45 years. Migraine prevalence  was  strongly  associated  with  household  income;  prevalence in  the lowest  income group (<$10 000)  was  more than 60% higher  than  in  the  two highest  income groups  (\m=ge\$30 000). The  proportion  of  migraine  sufferers  who  ex- perienced  moderate  to  severe  disability  was  not  related to  gender,  age,  income, urban  vs  rural  residence,  or  region  of  the country.  In  contrast,  the  frequency  of headaches  was  lower  in higher-income  groups.  Attack  frequency  was  inversely related  to  disability. Conclusions.\p=m-\A projection  to  the  US  population  suggests  that  8.7  million fe- males and 2.6  million males suffer from  migraine  headache with  moderate to severe disability.  Of  these,  3.4 million  females  and  1.1  million  males  experience  one or more attacks per  month.  Females  between ages  30 to  49 years from lower-income households are  at  especially high  risk of  having  migraines  and  are  more  likely  than other groups  to  use  emergency  care  services for their  acute  condition. (JAMA.  1992;267:64-69) WHILE  migraine  is  a  common disabling condition,110  little  is  known  about  the From the Departments  of  Epidemiology (Dr  Stewart) and Health Policy  and Management  (Dr  Celentano), The Johns  Hopkins University,  Baltimore,  Md;  the De- partment  of  Neurology,  Albert  Einstein College  of Medicine,  New  York,  NY  (Dr  Lipton);  and  Glaxo  Inc, Research  Triangle  Park,  NC  (Dr  Reed). Reprint  requests  to Department  of Epidemiology, School  of Hygiene  and Public Health,  The  Johns Hop- kins  University,  615  N  Wolfe  St,  Baltimore,  MD  21205 (Dr  Stewart). variation in  migraine prevalence by age, income,  race,  urban  vs rural  living,  and other  sociodemographic  variables thought  to  be  related  to  medical  care access and  utilization. Previous  studies have often been limited to  narrowly  de¬ fined  populations.  Moreover,  estimates of  migraine prevalence  have  varied widely, possibly  in  part  because  of  dif¬ ferences  in  sociodemographic  features of the  study  samples  and  differences  in the  definition of  a  migraine  case.  No study  has  estimated  the  prevalence  of migraine  in  a representative  sample  of the  US  population. In  the present  study,  the  magnitude and  distribution  of  the  public  health problem posed by migraine  in the United States  is  described  using  data  from  a nationwide  sample  of  more than  20 000 respondents.  This  survey  is  the  first  to estimate  migraine prevalence by  a  num¬ ber  of sociodemographic  factors,  includ¬ ing race,  income level, region of the coun¬ try,  and  urban  vs  rural  residence,  and to  employ  a  case definition based  on  cri¬ teria recommended by  the International Headache  Society  (IHS).11  The  survey covers the  broadest  age  range reported to  date,  including subjects  from 12 to  80 years.  All  regions  of  the  United  States are  included.  Information  is  provided that  identifies  groups  at  highest  risk of migraine  and  migraine-related  disabil¬ ity  and  that  provides  opportunities  to identify  barriers  to  effective  medical treatment. METHODS Sample Headache  histories  were ascertained through  a  questionnaire  mailed  to  US households.  A  market  research  firm, National  Family  Opinion  Ine  (NFO), Toledo,  Ohio,  maintains  a panel  of 200000  households  nationwide  for marketing,  opinion,  and  other  types of  surveys. Potential NFO  panel  households  are initially  selected  as  a  stratified  proba¬ bility sample  to be  representative  of the US  population  with  regard  to  urban  vs rural  residence,  age  of  the  head  of  the household,  household  income,  and  size. Households  are  recruited  by  volunteer response  to  an initial  mailing.  A follow- up  mailing  is  conducted  to  obtain  a de¬ tailed household census and demographic information.  Recruited  households  are randomly  assigned  to  one  of 40 blocks of 5000  households  each.  Every  2  years  at Albert Einstein College of Medicine on December 29, 2009 www.jama.com Downloaded from 

Transcript of Stewart - Prevalence of Migraine HA in the US -JAMA 1992.pdf

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Prevalence  of Migraine   Headachein   the  United  States

Relation   to Age,   Income,   Race,   and  OtherSociodemographic   Factors

Walter   F.   Stewart,   PhD,   MPH;   Richard   B.  Lipton, MD;   David   D.  Celentano,  ScD;   Michael   L.  Reed,   PhD

Objective.\p=m-\Todescribe   the magnitude   and   distribution of   the   public  healthproblem posed by migraine in  the United States by examining migraine prevalence,attack frequency,  and   attack-related disability by gender, age,   race,  household   in-

come, geographic region,  and  urban   vs   rural residence.

Design.\p=m-\In1989,   a   self-administered questionnaire   was   sent   to   a sample  of15000  households.   A designated  member of each  household   initially respondedto the

questionnaire. Each  household member with  severe headache  was asked

to   respond   to   detailed   questions   about  symptoms,   frequency,   and   severity   ofheadaches.

Setting.\p=m-\Asample of  households  selected from   a panel   to  be  representativeof the  US population in terms of age, gender,  household size, and geographic  area.

Participants.\p=m-\Aftera  single  mailing,   20468  subjects  (63.4%   response   rate)between 12  and  80  years of age responded to  the survey.  Respondents and   non\x=req-\

respondents did  not  differ by gender,  household  income, region  of  the country,   or

urban vs  rural  status. Whites and  the elderly were  more likely to respond. Migraineheadache   cases  were   identified   on   the  basis of  reported symptoms using  estab-

lished  diagnostic  criteria.

Results.\p=m-\17.6% of females and  5.7% of males were found to have  one or more

migraine  headaches  per year.  The prevalence of  migraine varied considerably byage  and  was highest  in  both  men and   women  between the  ages of  35 to  45 years.

Migraine prevalence   was strongly associated  with household income; prevalencein the lowest  income group (<$10 000)  was  more than 60% higher than in  the  two

highest  income groups (\m=ge\$30000).The proportion  of  migraine  sufferers who   ex-

perienced  moderate   to   severe disability   was   not  related to gender,   age,   income,urban   vs   rural  residence,   or  region   of   the country.   In  contrast,   the frequency   ofheadaches   was   lower   in higher-income  groups.   Attack frequency   was inverselyrelated  to disability.

Conclusions.\p=m-\Aprojection  to  the  US population suggests   that 8.7  million fe-males and 2.6 million males suffer from migraine headache with moderate to severe

disability.   Of  these,   3.4  million   females  and   1.1   million  males experience   one or

more attacks per month.  Females between ages 30 to  49 years from lower-incomehouseholds are  at especially high   risk of having migraines and  are  more likely thanother groups  to   use emergency  care  services for their  acute  condition.

(JAMA.   1992;267:64-69)

WHILE migraine is  a  common disablingcondition,110   little   is   known   about   the

From the Departments  of  Epidemiology (Dr  Stewart)and   Health Policy   and Management   (Dr   Celentano),The  Johns  Hopkins  University,   Baltimore,  Md;  t he   De-

partment   of   Neurology,   Albert   Einstein College   ofMedicine,   New   York,   NY  (Dr  Lipton); and   Glaxo   Inc,Research  Triangle  Park,   NC  (Dr  Reed).

Reprint   requests   to Department   of Epidemiology,School  of Hygiene  and Public Health, The  Johns Hop-kins   University,   615   N   Wolfe  St,   Baltimore,   MD   21205

(Dr  Stewart).

variation in migraine prevalence by age,income,  race,  urban   vs rural living,  andother   sociodemographic   variables

thought   to   be   related   to   medical   care

access and  utilization. Previous  studieshave often been limited to  narrowly de¬fined populations.  Moreover,   estimatesof   migraine   prevalence   have   varied

widely, possibly  in part  because  of dif¬ferences   in   sociodemographic   featuresof the study samples  and  differences  in

the   definition of   a  migraine   case.   No

study  has  estimated   the  prevalence  of

migraine   in   a representative sample  ofthe   US population.

In  the present study,   the magnitudeand   distribution   of   the   public   health

problem posed by migraine in the United

States   is   described  using   data   from  a

nationwide  sample  of  more   than  20 000respondents.  This  survey is  the  first   toestimate migraine prevalence by  a  num¬

ber of sociodemographic  factors, includ¬ing race, income level, region of the coun¬

try,   and  urban   vs   rural residence,   andto employ  a  case definition based  on  cri¬teria recommended by the  InternationalHeadache Society  (IHS).11   The   surveycovers the  broadest age  range reportedto date, including subjects from 12 to  80

years.   All  regions  of  the  United   Statesare   included.   Information   is   providedthat  identifies  groups  a t highest risk of

migraine   and migraine-related  disabil¬ity   and   that provides   opportunities   to

identify   barriers   to   effective   medicaltreatment.

METHODS

SampleHeadache histories   were ascertained

through   a questionnaire   mailed   to   UShouseholds.   A   market   research   firm,National   Family   Opinion   Ine   (NFO),Toledo,   Ohio,   maintains   a panel   of200000   households   nationwide   formarketing,   opinion,   and   other   types

of  surveys.Potential NFO  panel  households   are

initially   selected   as   a   stratified   proba¬bility sample to be representative of theUS population  with regard   to  urban   vs

rural  residence,   age  of the  head  of the

household, household income,  and  size.Households   are  recruited by  volunteer

response to   an initial mailing.   A follow-

up mailing   is   conducted   to  obtain   a de¬tailed household census and demographicinformation.   Recruited  households   are

randomly assigned to  one  of 40 blocks of5000   households   each.   Every   2   years

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updated   household   census   and   demo¬

graphic   information  is   obtained.   In  ad¬dition,   30%   of  each  sampling   block   is

replaced.   Households   that   are persis¬tent nonresponders  to periodic surveysare  removed  from  the sampling  frame.In general,   the  NFO sampling frame isskewed toward but not limited to upper-income   white  households.

SurveyIn 1989,  a self-administered question¬naire   was   sent   to   a   stratified   random

sample of  15 000  NFO panel households(three   sampling   blocks).   A  designatedmember from each household respondedto   the  questionnaire by   reporting   thenumber   of   members in   the   householdand  the number who  suffer from   severe

headache.   The study   is   limited   to   self-defined   severe   headache   because   thisconstitutes   the   most  significant   health

problem   from   the   sufferer's   point   ofview. The   consequences  of this  designchoice   are

 explored  in   the   "Comment"

section.Each household member with   severe

headache   was   asked   to   complete   the

questionnaire.  Detailed questions   were

asked   about   severe  headaches,   includ¬

ing specific accompanying symptoms andfrequency  of and disability from   severe

attacks.   A   total  of  9507  (63.4%)   of the15 000 households responded to  a singlequestionnaire mailing,   for   a   total  basepopulation   of  23611   individual   house¬hold   members.   Subjects   less   than   12

years old (n = 3043)  were excluded fromthe analysis because of concerns regard¬

ing  ability   to   reliably   respond   to   andinterpret questions.   We   report   on   re¬

sponses  of the  20468 subjects  between12   and   80   years   of   age.   One   hundred

respondents were excluded because gen¬der   was   not  reported.Measures

Subjects  were asked questions about

eight specific symptoms associated withheadache:   nausea;  vomiting;   unilateralhead pain; pulsating/throbbing pain; sen¬

sitivity  to  light (photophobia);   sensitiv¬

ity to sound (phonophobia); seeing shim¬mering lights,  circles,   other shapes,   or

colors before the eyes before  a headache(visual scotoma);   and   numbness   of the

lips,  tongue,  fingers,   or legs  before  theheadache pain.   Cases   met  criteria   con¬

sistent  with   the   IHS   definition   for  mi¬

graine.11   Specifically,   migraine   cases

were respondents with  at  least   one   se¬

vere headache in the last 12  months whodid  not experience headache  every dayand who had  one  of the following sets ofsymptoms with their   severe headaches:(1) unilateral  or pulsatile pain and eithernausea or vomiting or phonophobia with

photophobia or (2) visual  or sensory aura

before the  headache.   Subjects  who didnot meet these criteria   were simply de¬fined   as having   severe  headache.

Three levels of disability were defined:severe disability   if  headache   requiredbed   rest,   moderate   disability   if  head¬ache severely impaired working abilityor activity,   and   mild disability   if head¬ache  impaired working ability   or  activ¬

ity to  some degree. Otherwise, subjectswere not  considered to be disabled fromtheir reported   severe  headaches.

Response categories for the frequencyof severe headache   were   as follows:   ev¬

ery day,  two to six times per week,   once

per week,   one to three times per month,and   one   to   12   times  per  year.  Subjectswith   severe  headache   every day   were

excluded   as migraine   cases.

AnalysisSex-specific  prevalence   estimates   of

active   severe migraine headache suffer¬ers  were derived by  age,  race,  urban  vs

rural residence,  household

 income, and

region   of   the   country.   GLIM   Poissonregression (log-linear models)12 was usedto   model   sex-   and   age-specific   preva¬lence by   income and   to  derive adjustedprevalence ratios. Preliminary analysisshowed that males and females differedsubstantially  both in  the absolute prev¬alence   of migraine   and   by   covariates.Data were therefore modeled separatelyby gender.  Age   was   divided   into   thir¬teen 5-year categories (the first age cat¬

egory,   12 through   19 years,   was   an  e x¬

ception)   and   modeled   as a   continuousvariable.   Two   race groups  (blacks  and

whites),   three   urban   vs   rural   groups(population  <50000,   50000   to   500000,and   >500000),   and   five   household   in¬come   groups   (<$10000,   $10000   to

$19999,   $20000   to  $29999,   $30000   to$44 999, and >$45 000) were defined. Asa   reference,   $24897   was   the   medianhousehold income   in   the  United   Statesin 1986.13 Six regions of the United Stateswere   defined:   New  England,   Atlantic,North  Central,   South   Central,   Moun¬tain, and  Pacific.   Individuals with otherand unknown   race   were  excluded when

estimating   crude   and  adjusted   preva¬lence   ratios   because   the   groups   were

too   small  to   derive  stable estimates.The   2   test   was   used   to   determine

whether   a   single   variable   (race,   age,income,  etc) significantly  improved thefit  of  the  log-linear model to  the  data.14The   degrees   of  freedom   for   each   testwere equal  to the  number of categoriesfor   that   variable   minus   1.   Crude   andadjusted prevalence ratios were derivedas   the   ratio   of migraine  prevalence   inone category of a variable  vs  a referencecategory (eg, prevalence in  the higher-income   groups   vs   the   lowest   incomegroup).

Table   1.—Distribution   of   Total   Population   and

Respondents

VariableTotal,

No.  Respondents,

No. (%)Sex

MF

RaceBlackWhiteOtherUnknown

Age, y

12-1718-2930-3940-4950-592=60

RegionMountainNew EnglandAtlanticNorth CentralSouth   CentralPacific

Urban  vs   rural<50  0 00 (rural)50  00 0 to

500 000500 0 00  to

2  000 000>2  000 000

Household  size123425

Household  income,  Í<10  00010 000  to  19  99920 00 0  to  29  99 930  000  to  44  999==45  000

Total

1551317  28 8

127130  618

598314

321567036997501238117063

17791813

10910798356894627

9379

6520

587211   030

36509258698368876023

45365964580974359057

32  801

9660 (62.3)10  808   (62.5)

618   (48.6)19 464 (63.6)

225 (37.6)161 (51.3)

1904 (59.2)3518 (52.5)3979 (56.9)3123 (62.3)2583 (67.8)5361 (75.9)

1133 (63.7)1147 (63.3)6737 (61.8)5296 (66.3)3345 (58.8)2810   (60.7)

5790   (61.7)

4041 (62.0)

3799 (64.7)6838 (62.0)

2462 (67.5)6407   (69.2)4155 (59.5)4095 (59.5)3349 (55.6)

2739 (60.4)3711   (62.2)3615 (62.2)4672 (62.8)5731 (63.3)

20  46 8   (62.4)

RESULTS

Response   Rate

Characteristics   of   survey   respon¬dents   are displayed   in   Table   1.   Over¬all,   63.4%  of all  households and  62.4%of  the   total  population  participated   inthe   mailed  questionnaire   survey.   The

response   rate   did   not   differ   by   sex,urban   vs   rural   residence,   householdincome,   or region  of the  country,   withthe  exception  of  a  lower   response   rate(58.8%)   in   the   South   Central   UnitedStates.   By   race,   the   response   ratewas higher   among   whites   (63.6%)than blacks   (48.6%)   and   other   race

groups   (37.6%).   By   age,   the   responserate   was

highest   among  the

  elderly(75.9%)   and   lowest   among   adults   18to  29   years   (52.5%).   The   age  distribu¬tion   of respondents   is  consistent   withthe   known   lower   response   rate to   sur¬

veys   among   more   mobile   popula¬tions.15  Smaller  households   were more

likely   to   respond   than   larger   house¬holds,   representing   in   part   the   agedistribution   of respondents.Prevalence  and

Sociodemographic   Variation

Crude  Estimates.—A   total  of  17.6%of females and 5.7% of males between 12

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Table 2.—Sex-Specific   Prevalence  of  Migraine   and  Total  Severe  Headache  by   Race,   Household   Income,Urban  vs  Rural Community,  and  Region of  the United States

Variable

Prevalence (No.  of  Subjects)

Migraine   All  Severe  Headaches

RaceBlack   17.4 (67)   3.3   (8)   27.2   (2787)   13.8   (1273)White   17.6 (1803)   6.1 (561)   28.8 (209)   16.3 (39)Other   12.3   (10)   2.5   (2)   21.2 (18)   15.8 (12)

Unknown 15.9 (22)   4.7 (6)   31.9 (36)   12.5 (14)Household  Income, $<10  000   20.8 (374)   7.4 (70)   34.7 (623)   19.7 (186)10 000  to  19  999   17.8 (368)   6.6 (108)   28.1 (582)   15.1 (248)20 000  to  29  999   17.9 (328)   5.9 (142)   27.4 (506)   14.9 (263)30  000  to  44  99 9   16.3 (367)   5.9 (142)   24.2 (548)   12.5 (302)Ï45  000   16.3   (465)   5.3   (153)   24.4   (691)   11.7   (339)

Urban  vs  rural<50 000 19.7 (615)   6.2   (165)   30.7   (962)   15.5   (412)50  000  to  500  0 00   17.6 (386)   5.8 (109)   26.9 (585)   13.3 (249)>500 00 0   16.4 (901)   6.0   (303)   25.5 (1403)   13.0 (667)

RegionNew England   17.5 (107)   4.9 (26)   25.2 (154)   12.3 (66)Mountain   19.5 (115)   7.0   (38)   27.2 (161)   13.3   (72)Atlantic   17.7 (637)   5.8   (188)   27.3 (983)   13.6   (427)North  Central   22.6 (147)   5.6   (138)   27.0   (760)   13.3   (330)South   Central   18.2 (317)   6.6 (100)   29.6 (516)   15.8 (253)Pacific 17.2   (249)   6.4   (87)   26.0   (376)   13.9   (190)

Total   17.6   (1902)   5.7 (577)   27.3 (2950)   13.9 (1338)

Table   3— Crude   and  Adjusted   Sex-Specific   Prevalence   Ratios   of  Migraine  by  Race,   Household   Income,Urban  vs  Rural Community,  and  Region  of  the   United  States

Prevalence Ratio*

Variable95%  Confidence   95%  Confidence

Crude   Adjusted!   Limits   Crude Adjustedf   Limits

RaceWhite   1.00 1.00 1.00

Black   1.01   0.84 (0.65,1.08)   0.54   0.50   (0.25, 0.98)Household  income,  $

<10000   1.00   1.00

10 00 0  to   19  999   0.86 0.79 (0.68,0.91)   0.89 0.88 (0.65,1.21)20  00 0  to  29  99 9   0.86   (0.59, 0.80)   (0.50, 0.93)30  00 0  to  44  99 9   (0.50, 0.63)   0.79 0.64   (0.48,  0.86)3=45  000   0.78   0.58 (0.50,  0.69)   0.71   0.56   (0.42, 0.76)

Urban   vs  rural>50  000   1.00 1.00   1.00   1.00

50 000  to  500 000   0.89 0.93 (0.81,  1.06)   0.94   0.99 (0.77,  1.27)>500 000   0.83   0.91   (0.81,1.01)   0.97 (0.87,  1.31)

RegionNew  England   1.00   1.00 1.00 1.00

Mountain (0.82,  1.40)   1.34   1.28 (0.72,2.15)Atlantic   1.02   1.01 (0.82,1.24)   1.25   1.26   (0.83,  1.91)

North Central   (0.85,1.30)   1.18   1.14   (0.74,   1.75)South Central   1   05   1.00 (0.80, 1.25)   1.31   1.27 (0.82,  1.98)Pacific   0.97   (0.78,  1.23)   (0.76,2.16)

•Comparing subgroup with   a  reference group (with   a designated  prevalence  ratio of  1.00).tAdjusted  for  age,   race,  income,   urban  vs  rural community,  and region of the   United  States.

and   80  years   of  age   met   the   case   defi¬nition  for  migraine headache  (Table 2) .The   crude  prevalence   estimate   of   mi¬

graine in  black females is similar to thatin   white   females   but   is   lower   in   blackmales   than   in   white   males.   Migraineprevalence   is   lower   in  higher-income

groups   and   in   females   living   in   largermetropolitan   areas.

While there   is   no  striking   regionalpattern,  the prevalence of migraine ap¬pears  to be  high   among both males  andfemales   living   in   the Mountain   region.In   contrast,   with   one exception,   New

England has   the lowest gender-specificprevalence  of migraine.

Migraine  accounts for 64.4% of all fe¬male  severe headache sufferers and  43%of  a ll   male   severe   headache   sufferers.The pattern  of   severe  headache  preva¬lence by  sociodemographic  factors   was

similar   to   that   observed   for  migraineprevalence  (Table  2).

Adjusted   Estimates.—Because   a

number   of   covariates,   including   age,were   found   to  be  associated   with   eachother,   GLIM   Poisson   regression   was

used  to  adjust for  possible confoundingwhen   estimating   prevalence   by   eachvariable.  Among males,   age   ( 2   = 20.4,df=l,   P<.001)   and   age   squared( 2 = 57.4, df=l,   P<.001)  significantlyimproved   the   fit   of   the   model   to   the

data,   followed   by   income ( 2 =19.4,ri/=4,P<.001)andrace(x2 =4.4,d/=l,P<.05).   Among   females,   age   ( 2 = 62,df=l,   P<.001),   age squared  ( 2 = 341,d/=l,   P<.001),   age   cubed ( 2= 30.1,

df=l,   P<.001),  and   income

 ( 2=

73.8,df=4,   P<.001)   each   significantly   im¬proved  the   fit  of the  model  to  the  data.Race was not significant among females.Urban   vs   rural   residence,  region,   andinteraction   terms   between   income   or

race   and   age   did   not  significantly   im¬

prove   the   fit  of  the   log-linear  model   tothe   data.   The   significant   age   squaredterm  in   these models  indicates that  mi¬

graine prevalence  has   a nonlinear rela¬tion with age.  The significant age  cubedterm   for   females  primarily  affects the

"sharpness" of the peak and   the steep¬ness  of the  rise  and  decline in  migraine

prevalence with age. All covariates,   ex¬cept  age cubed  in  males,   were   includedin   the   final   model   to   derive   adjustedprevalence   ratios  by   race,   income,   ur¬

ban   vs  rural  residence,   and region  andto   derive   sex-   and  age-specific   preva¬lence  estimates by  income.

After adjusting   for other covariates,the prevalence  of migraine   was  not  sig¬nificantly   different   between black   andwhite females. The adjusted prevalencewas lower among black males than whitemales (Table 3).  The difference  was  sta¬

tistically significant  (P<.05).The

prevalenceratio of

migraine, com¬

paring higher-income   groups   with   thelowest   income   group,   decreased   with

increasing household   income (Table  3).A   consistent   trend   was   found   amongboth males and females. After adjustingfor  other covariates,   the prevalence   of

migraine among females in the two high¬est   income   groups   ($30000   to   $44999and  s$45 000) was, on average, only 59%of the prevalence  observed for the   low¬est   income   group   (<$10000),   followedin order by prevalence ratios of 0.69 and0.79 in the $20 000  to $29 999 and $10 000to $19 999   income groups, respectively.

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0.4-

0.0-

- <$10000. $10000-$19999-$20000-$29999- >$30000

20

Females

- "

30   40- -

50 60 70 80

0.20-

0.15·

0.05-

0.0-

- <$10000

.

$10000-$19999

-$20000-$29999-$30000-$44999

-

>$45000

Males

20 —r-

30- -

40 —r-

50 —I-

60- -

70 —r

80

Age, y

Age-specific prevalence  of  migraine by  household   Income   among  female  and male  respondents  in  a  1989national   survey.

Males exhibited  a similar pattern.  Prev¬alence in the  two highest income groupswas,   on average,   59%   (3=$45000)   and64%   ($30000   to   $44999)   of  the   preva¬lence   in   the lowest   income   group.   Ur¬ban   vs rural  residence (population den¬

sity)   was   not   significantly   associatedwith  migraine  prevalence.   Among   fe¬

males, the prevalence ratios  were lower

in urban  vs rural

 populations (Table 3),but   the   differences   were   not   statisti¬

cally significant. Among males,   no spe¬cific pattern emerged.

The   sex- and  age-specific prevalenceofmigraine by income group (in females,age-specific prevalence in the two  high¬est   income   groups   was   similar   andtherefore  w as combined) is displayed inthe Figure.  Among   females,   migraineprevalence  increased sharply  up  to  age40   years   and   declined   monotonicallythereafter.   The peak prevalence   in   thelowest income group was more than 40%compared   with   22%   in   the  highest   in-

come group. The prevalence of migrainewas   still   relatively high   for   all   income

groups,   even at  age  60  years in  females.While  a  similar age-specific pattern  was

found  among males,  it  wa s  not   as  strik¬

ing   (note   the   difference   in   the   preva¬lence   scales   in  the  Figure).   Prevalence

slowly  increased  and decreased   over   a

broader   age   range.   The   highest   age-

specific prevalence  in  males

  (12%  and

7%   in   the lowest   and   highest   income

groups)  occurred  at   a slightly  youngerage   than   that  found  in   females.

The age-specific   sex ratio also varied

considerably by  age,   a reflection of  the

contrasting age-specific prevalence pat¬terns   among   males   and   females.   The

average prevalence   sex   ratio  (averageof the   age-specific ratios)   was approxi¬mately   2.8.   At   age   12   years   the   ratiowas  below 2.0, increasing sharply afterthis  age and peaking  at  3.3  between 40and 45 years. It is noteworthy that,  even

after the  age  of menopause,   the   sex  ra-

tio  continues   to  be   elevated  above  2.0.While   both   females and males living

in   the Mountain   region   of   the   UnitedStates  exhibited   a higher prevalence  ofmigraine   after  adjusting   for   other   co¬

variates,   no region  had   a prevalence  ofmigraine significantly different from thatof  New  England.

Frequency  of  Attacks  and  Disability

Female  migraine   sufferers  reportedmore frequent  attacks   than   their  malecounterparts.   Among   those  reportingsevere migraine   headache   in   the last

year, approximately 59% (1158 of  1964)of females and 50%  (303 of 611) of malesreported   one   or   more   severe headachesper   month.   In   contrast,   small  genderdifferences   were found among migrainesufferers in  the   occurrence  of disability(Table   4).   Among migraine   sufferers,86%   of   females   and   82%   of  males   re¬

ported   some   disability   from   their   se¬

vere headaches; 47% offemales and 43%of   males

 reported  moderate

  to  severe

disability.  Moderate to  severe disabilityfrom headache  was more common amongthose with fewer attacks per year (datanot shown). For example, among femaleswith   one   to   12   severe   headaches   peryear,   56.5%  reported  moderate   to   se¬

vere disability from their headache com¬

pared   with   36.2%   of  females   with   one

severe  headache   per week.After adjusting  for  other covariates,

attack   frequency   decreased   as   house¬hold income   increased   for   both   malesand   females   (Table   4).   On   the   otherhand,   attack frequency   was   not  associ¬

ated   with   race,   urban   vs   rural   resi¬dence,   region   of   the   country,   or age.Similarly, moderate to   severe disabilityamong migraine   sufferers   was   not   re¬

lated to race, income, urban vs rural res¬

idence,   or region of the country in eitherfemales  or males.   It is noteworthy,  how¬

ever, that black male migraine sufferers

reported   more frequent   severe   head¬aches (prevalence ratio, 1.8) but less fre¬quent disability from their  severe head¬aches (prevalence ratio, 0.57) than whitemales. Finally, the proportion ofmigrainesufferers who experience moderate to se¬

vere

disability does not

 appear to changewith  age.  Thus,  while   the prevalence  ofsevere migraine   decreased   with   age,   itappears that the proportion with disabil¬ity  among those currently suffering from

migraine  does  not change with age.

COMMENT

Prevalence is   a   measure that reflectsboth the  incidence of  new   cases and  the

persistence  of disease.   Valid  estimatesof prevalence   are informative about the

public health toll and  societal costs fromspecific diseases.  We have provided de¬tailed descriptions  of the  age pattern of

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Table 4.—Adjusted Sex-Specific  Prevalence   Ratlos  of Frequent  and  Moderate to  Severe Disabling MigraineHeadaches by  Race,  Household  Income,   Urban  vs   Rural Community,   and Region  of  the United States

Adjusted Prevalence Ratio*

Variable  Frequent

Attacks DisabilityFrequentAttacks

RaceWhite   1.00   1.00   1.00   1.00

Black   1.00   1.83   0.58

Household income, $<10  000   1.00   1.00   1.00 1.00

10  000  to  19  999   0.91   0.74   0.97

20 000  to  29  999   0.93 0.78   1.09

30  000  to  44  999 0.94   0.99   0.60 1.02

a45 000   0.81   1.03   0.71   1.02

Urban  vs  rural<50  000 1.00   1.00 1.00

50  000  to  500 000   0.98   0.85   0.96

< 500  000 1.05   1.06

RegionNew England   1.00 1.00   1.00

Mountain   1.02   0.66   0.87   1.36

Atlantic   1.16   0.76 0.98   0.99

North  Central   1.12   0.72   1.04   0.88

South  Central   1.17   0.65   0.87   1.36Pacific   0.67   0.86

•Comparing subgroup   with   a  reference group (with  a designated prevalence  ratio of 1.00), adjusted  for age,   race,income,  urban  vs  rural community,  and region  of  the   United  States.

migraine   prevalence   and   examinedwhether migraine prevalence  varies bya  number  of demographic   factors.

The   overall  prevalence   estimates   of

migraine in   our study,  17.6% in femalesand 5.7% in  males,   are lower than those

reported in  most other studies.18 Thereare  two possible   reasons  for  the  differ¬

ences.   First,   symptom   histories   wereobtained  only   from  self-defined   severe

headache sufferers. Migraineurs who ex¬

perience  moderate pain and  little   or   no

disability16   are likely   to   have   been   ex¬

cluded.   Second,   we  employed   a   some¬

what   strict   case   definition   consistentwith  that  of the   IHS.11  Our criteria dif¬fer with those of the IHS  in  that  we  didnot consider the lifetime number of pre¬vious  attacks   of migraine   or  headacheduration  (3   to  72  hours).  However,   the

overwhelming majority  of  cases   in   our

study   are likely   to  have  met  these  cri¬teria. Finally, the  rare   cases of migraineattributable to organic disease could notbe excluded,  and   we did  not employ theIHS   criteria  of increased  headache   se¬

verity   on   exertion.In previous population-based studies,

prevalence estimates18 of migraine havevaried  widely  and   for  this   reason  havebeen  questioned.17 Overall,  prevalencehas ranged from 5.3%5 to  19%2 in  malesand   from   11%S   to 28%2  in   females.   Ourstudy   suggests   that   the   variation   ob¬served among previous   studies  may  beexplained   in part by sociodemographicdifferences in the  samples studied.   For

example,   most  studies tend  to  focus   on

younger  age groups1·3,4,7,8   or only   on fe¬males1,3,7 and   therefore   cannot  be  gen¬eralized   to   more broadly  defined  popu¬lations.

The prevalence of migraine peaks be¬tween 35  to  40  years, occurring slightlyearlier for  males.  Where sufficient datahave   been   available   over   a   broad   age

range,2,5·6 the prevalence of migraine de¬creases   with   age  beginning   in   the   30sfor males and in the late 40s  for females.

Migraine  is reported to be  two to fourtimes   more   common   in   females   than   inmales.19 Our data show that the genderratio  varies  considerably by  age,   rang¬ing   from  2.0   to   3.3.   Differences in   the

age distribution between previous stud¬ies   may   account   for   the  wide   range   in

gender ratios reported   to  date.The highest gender ratio in   our study

was found between  the  ages of 30  to  45

years,   the period  of highest prevalencefor  both   females  and males.   The   rise  in

the  gender   ratio after  the   age   of   men-

arche,   the  peak   near   the  age  of   meno¬

pause,   and   the   decline   in   the  genderratio thereafter suggest  that   hormonalfactors play  a  role in gender differencesin migraine prevalence. 18_2°However, the

gender ratio of 2.5   even after the age of70 years suggests that hormonal changesat   menses  and   menopause   do   not  fullyaccount   for  gender   differences   in   mi¬

graine prevalence.After adjusting for  other covariates,

blacks  exhibited   a  lower prevalence   ofmigraine   than   whites,   particularlyamong males.   Because blacks   were less

likely   to   respond   to   our survey   thanwhites,   our sample   may   not  be   repre¬sentative of blacks in  the  United States.

Nonetheless,   the   difference by   race   isconsistent  with  a higher platelet level ofthe tyramine  conjugating  enzyme phe-nolsulfotransferase   in   blacks   than   inwhites.21 High levels of phenolsulfotrans-ferase  may protect against migraine by

metabolizing suspected dietary triggers,including tyramine.The  consistent  trend  of higher  prev¬

alence   in   lower-income   groups   is   con¬

trary   to   the  commonly  held  belief thatmigraine is  more prevalent among thoseof higher  socioeconomic status.  This be¬lief  may   arise   from   a   tendency   of  mi¬

graine sufferers in higher socioeconomicgroups to consult a physician for care.22·23Although  migraine   may  be   more   com¬

mon   in   individuals   from  higher-incomegroups in  clinic-based series, in the gen¬eral population, migraine prevalence in¬creases   as   income   decreases.

In the present study, the higher prev¬alence   in lower-income   groups may  beexplained by   a higher  incidence  of  new

cases   or   a longer  duration  of time   over

which  cases suffer from attacks.  Causaland   medical   care   factors   may   governboth the  incidence  and  duration  of thiscondition.   Diet,   stress,   and   other   fac¬tors   associated   with   low   income   mayprecipitate  migraine   attacks.   Alterna¬

tively,   access   to good  health   care  maydecrease the  duration of  the  illness andtherefore the prevalence among higher-income  groups.   In   some  individuals mi¬

graine   may   cause   low   income.   That is,headache-related   disability   may   seri¬ously disrupt function at work or  school.The phenomenon of  "downward"  socio-economic   drift   has   been   described   inother disabling   conditions.24·25   In  turn,occupational  and social  disruption   mayexacerbate the migraine condition,   cre¬

ating   a  downward  spiral.Differences in   reporting   symptoms

may also account for the observed trendby income, resulting in misclassificationof  a greater proportion  of   severe head¬ache sufferers as migraineurs in the low¬est   income   groups.   While   individuals

from   lower-income   households had   a

higher overall prevalence of severe head¬ache,   migraineurs   accounted   for   a

smaller percentage   of all   severe   head¬ache   sufferers   compared   with respon¬dents   from  higher-income  households.This finding   is contrary   to  what  wouldbe expected  if severe  headache  is   more

likely  to  be  misclassified   as migraine  inlower-income groups.

The   nonresponse   rate   of  37.6%   is   a

limitation   of   this   survey.  Migraineursmay  have  been   more  likely  to  respond,affecting both the overall prevalence  es¬

timate of migraine   and,   possibly,   dif-

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ferences   by sociodemographic   factors.While respondents and nonrespondentshad   similar   sociodemographic   profilesby gender,   income,   urban   vs  rural   liv¬

ing,   and  region   of   the  country,   differ¬ences   were   found   by   age   and   race.

Younger respondents   are   more   mobileand   are typically underrepresented   in

population surveys compared with older

respondents.   If migraineurs   were   sub¬

stantially  more

likely   to  respond   thannonmigraineurs  we would have expectedfemales and  young  people   to   be   over-

represented, patterns   not  observed   inthe  present study.  These   data suggestthat   selection   bias   with  regard   to   mi¬

graine status is  not   a significant  factor.

Instead,   more general   factors   that   af¬fect survey  response  status  account  fordifferences   between   respondents   andnonrespondents in our survey. However,

even if the prevalence ofmigraine amongnonrespondents   were  only   50%   of  theprevalence   among respondents,   an   un¬

likely difference,   the prevalence  of mi¬graine   in   our study  would  be  overesti¬mated by only 20%. Finally, it should benoted that our results  are generalizableonly   to those who self-report   as havingsevere  headache.

Using   our prevalence  estimates,   we

have made projections of the  number ofpeople   in   the   United   States   who   cur¬

rently   suffer   from   migraine   headacheand disabling migraine  headache.   Sex-and   age-specific   prevalence   estimatesfor   total migraine  and  moderate   to   se¬

vere disabling   migraine   from   our   na¬

tional survey  were applied   to  1989   sex-

and age-specific  census estimates of theUS population.  Projected  estimates in¬dicate  that there  are   18 million  females

and   5.6  million  males currently  suffer¬

ing  from   severe migraine headaches.  Atotal of 8.7 million females and  2.6  mil¬lion  males   suffer from  moderate   to   se¬

vere disabling   headaches.   Of   these,3.4 million females and  1.1  million males

experience   one   or   more   attacks   permonth.

Our study  results highlight  the  needfor increased  awareness  of migraine   on

the part of physicians. Meeting the chal¬lenge   of  caring   for  migraine   sufferersrequires   that  physicians actively   iden¬tify cases, educate patients to avoid trig¬ger   factors,   and  prescribe   medicationwhen appropriate.

This  investigation   was supported  by   US   PublicHealth   Service   grants   NS19381   and   5-T32   NSO-7153,  awarded by  the  National  Institute of  Neuro¬logical  Disorders   and Stroke,  Bethesda,  Md,   andby  Glaxo   Ine,   Research Triangle  Park,   NC.

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