[email protected] Instant Carpooling Steve Raney –ULTra PRT (Heathrow Nov ’09)...
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[email protected] Instant Carpooling • Steve Raney – ULTra PRT (Heathrow Nov ’09) – Cities21 new mobility non- profit – Patent: Wireless carpool assistant • Dynamic Ridesharing (DRS) – Match within 3 days • Instant Ridesharing (IRS) – within 15 minutes.
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Transcript of [email protected] Instant Carpooling Steve Raney –ULTra PRT (Heathrow Nov ’09)...
Instant Carpooling• Steve Raney
– ULTra PRT (Heathrow Nov ’09)– Cities21 new mobility non-profit– Patent: Wireless carpool assistant
• Dynamic Ridesharing (DRS)– Match within 3 days
• Instant Ridesharing (IRS)– within 15 minutes.
Empty seats: policy• 1000X more cost-effective
– Duh! Reduce demand
• IRS: Reduce 1 SOV phone– Metro extension, 1 SOV new Mercedes
• Homeland economic security– SF Bay Bridge in ’89 quake, MN I-35W bridge collapse– Need rapid capacity response
• Policy jumpstarts– Charge $8/day suburban parking 23% commute shift– Extend commute benefits & tax breaks to DRS commuting.
Federal workers, especially– More HOV lanes.
“Obvious” Idea• Shaheen: 1% SOV mode shift
• 11 past, 8 current, 10 future– see www.dynamicridesharing.org– Zimride, GoLoco, nuride, Carticipate, Goose
Networks, RideNow, ecolane, Seattle Smart Traveler, Google RideFinder, Hoverport, etc.
– Invention prevalence
• Not obvious– Carnegie Mellon West theme. 4 teams vote no– Goose. $111K WSDOT grant, 322 rides, $345/ride– RideNow. 12 out of 3K BART recruiting.
Still not obvious• Sparse GIS distribution
– Carticipate: 10K members (need 1.5M)– Avego: 2,400 members
• Members form permanent carpools & drop out.
What will work?• $10/gal, 10% commuters, 100% GPS (API)
smartphones + in-vehicle navigation systems• Clever
– Nuride corridor strategy (not an “area”)– ZimRide college portals– “Instant” via iPhone or Android: high LOS– Avego integrate seats: bus, vanpool, private cars
• 40 person software team w/ $12M committed VC
– Google “New mobility” “platform”• Maps w/ traffic, Transit, RideFinder, Android.
Homes MCI, AOL
Helps: Reduce SOV Advantage• Travel utility = f(travel time, travel cost, travel
experience {hassle, stress, comfort, entertainment value}, parking hassle, parking cost, reliability)
• When util(SOV) < util (HOV), then we have:– SF Bay Bridge Casual Carpooling (save 15 min & $5
bridge toll)– DC slugging (HOV-only!)– Microsoft Redmond casual evening rides back to Seattle
• Casual Carpooling and slugging: “perfect storm”– Very few other places where HOV is close to SOV
• IRS pilots have higher chance of success where there is reduced SOV advantage. IRS incentives increase HOV util.
Helps: Peak Oil – hurry up!!!
• Plenty of petrol (shale, tar sands)– Gets expensive to extract
• China & India drive skyrocketing demand.
Avego Corridors• Bus route-like. Driver does not deviate route• Pre-defined stops on arterials• <1% is fine – “sliver of critical mass”• Driver: every day: run Avego, some days: give ride. LOS• Drive new route w/ iPhone, mark stops, edit stops via web
– “wiki”-like. User created routes/stops/content.
IRS Safety• Reality: casual carpooling• Perception: Susan UCD focus group• Axe murderers? Sensationalized
– Hitchhiking is anonymous, DRS is not
• Start: Rides w/i social/work network• Avoid 1 male, 1 female• Reputation rating• PIN code & photo to verify ride• Possible: background check• Possible: Big Sister (homesafe).
Last: Collaboration• Really big world problems• Grow “more human”
– 2040 humans can’t understand 2009
• Web 2.0 enables collaboration with zero management cost
• Unleash human goodness (make it easy) – Many people, a few minutes per day
• Satisfaction: solve something that govt fails at• IRS & new mobility: social movements.
Knowledge worker commute• Large suburban solo driving reduction is
hard – 80% SOV to 79% SOV is hard– But, SOV is “least worst,” not loved– SOV: no-brainer background task– Charging $6 per day for parking works ($9
gas)– Pay $4 per day not to park - fails – Current carpooling: “fampools”
• Value of time– Commute: 50% of hourly. Lunch: 200%– Waiting under uncertainty, 3X
• Each commuter: basket of objections.
Knowledge worker commute• 30% time penalty: OK (20 min SOV vs. 26 min
alternative)• Traditional carpool psychology is complex:
– Matchmaking: anonymous, superficial rejection (web dating)
– Sleep, uncertainty stress, and safety are important
• Customer support: eliminate nightmares• Mid-day stranding: mtngs, lunch, shop• PM Stranding: want “no penalty” emergency ride
home• Good commute: “time went fast.”
How to grow pilot routes?
• Work with existing carpool flow vectors– Have fixed carpools also make dynamic pickups
• Target demographic?
• “Practice” by picking up “ghosts.”
GrassRoutes
• Get a couple of folks together (commuters)
• Grow circle to 5 drivers and 5 riders on a route
• Avego: help with phones & guaranteed ride home
• 10 people can change the world
• Grow from 10 people, add routes.
Avego Shared Transport• Mapflow (parent): 40 person company.
Congestion charging in London. Maps (GIS). Tracking cars (GPS)
• Avego division mission: reduce SOV– (SOV: single occupancy vehicle)
• Shared Transport: iPhone instant carpooling– http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgTNK85bG_k– Integrates with vanpools, traditional carpools,
buses.
Avego Status
• $12M in venture capital
• iPhone software on Apple AppStore
• Very difficult to succeed (hurry up Peak!)– Long, multiyear campaign– We don’t know what will work (try stuff!)
• Pilot project at a 20,000-student university– Campus shuttle bus system is integrated
• Futurefleet “coach bus” pilot project.
Steve Raney bio• Launch consultant for Avego• ULTra personal rapid transit (London Heathrow Airport)• 3 masters: business, software, and transportation from
Columbia, RPI, and Berkeley• Tech product research at Microsoft, Citigroup, and Silicon
Valley start-ups • Proj Mgr for BART’s Group Rapid Transit study• Principal Investigator for the U.S. EPA’s "Transforming Office
Parks into Transit Villages" study • Author: 5 Transportation Research Board (TRB) papers • Patent: "wireless carpool assistant" • Conference presentations: TRB, Association for Commuter
Transportation, Intelligent Transportation Systems World Congress, Rail~Volution, Greenbuild Expo, Engineers for a Sustainable World, Housing California, and American Planning Association (California Chapter).
