The Future ArcticUrbanisation in the Arctic Circle

Steven LeaskBSc in Architectural Studies (Honours)

Department of ArchitectureStrathclyde University

March 2014

Reg No. 200937793Supervisor: David Reat

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Contents

List of illustrations

Acknowledgements

Abstract

Introduction

1 - Historical Urbanisation in the Arctic Circle

Urbanisation and the Arctic

Drivers of Historical Urbanisation

2 - Changing Landscape - Prospects and Fears

Arctic Climate Change

Impacts of Arctic Climate Change

3 - Urbanisation Case Studies

The Barents Region

Murmansk, Russia

Kiruna, Sweden

Conclusion

Age of the Arctic or End of the Arctic?

Bibliography

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Cover Arctic Ice Melting. http://www.safety4sea.com/records-for-arctic-ice-melt-and-greenhouse-gas-emissions-in-2012-17120

Noril’sk.http://www.geocurrents.info/geoquiz/northern-cities-geoquiz-answers

Polar Bears and Climate Changehttp://wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/successes/conservation_highlights_2013/?209174/Polar-bear-summit-to-address-climate-threat#

Arctic Oil Rig. ht tp://www.te legraph.co.uk /f inance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/9000113/MPs-to-quiz-oil-giants-BP-Shell-and-Cairn-Energy-on-Arctic-drilling-safety.html(accessed 28 December 2013)

Fig 1 Population in cities and rural settlements in 2010. http://www.nordregio.se/Maps--Graphs/01-Population-and-demography/Population-in-cities-and-rural-settlements-2010/(accessed 23 December 2013)

Fig 2 Typical Arctic herding which was targeted during the period of collectivisation.

http://www.justinjin.com/work/reportage/arctic/(accessed 10 November 2013)

Fig 3 Traditional indigenous settlement.http://www.justinjin.com/work/reportage/arctic/(accessed 10 November 2013)

Fig 4 Stalin’s gulag labour camp workers build an Arctic railroad.http://www.rymaszewski.iinet.net.au/5soviets.html(accessed 08 March 2014)

Fig 5 Example of Stalin’s industrial movements which polluted the Arctic, built 1937.

http://archive.justinjin.com(accessed 10 November 2013)

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List of illustrations

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Fig 6 Climate change and melting Arctic sea-ice.http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/publications/paul_rogers_monthly_global_security_briefi ngs/fi ghting_climate_change_denial_climate_di(accessed 08 March 2014)

Fig 7 Arctic ice-shelf and shipping routes. http://www.economist.com/node/21556798 (accessed 27 December 2013)

Fig 8 Prospective Gas and Oil Reserves. Sheppard, Lola and White, Mason. 2008. Thawing Urbanisms in the Arctic. MONU 9.08: pp 25 (accessed 10 February 2014)

Fig 9 LUKoil off-shore oil terminal serving Arctic tankers.http://archive.justinjin.com(accessed 10 November 2013)

Fig 10 Arctic Ice-breaker.http://www.exodus.co.uk/polar-expeditions/polar-fl eet(accessed 08 March 2014)

Fig 11 Damaged Arctic pipeline being repaired.http://archive.justinjin.com(accessed 08 March 2014)

Fig 12 Overview of Murmansk.Lindsay Comer, January 2014

Fig 13 War Effort Arms for Russia. https://images.nationalarchives.gov.uk/assetbank-nationalarchives/action/viewFullSizedImage?id=24484&size=800 (accessed 23 December 2013)

Fig 14 Murmansk housing block with ‘Hero-City’ sign in Russian.Lindsay Comer, January 2014

Fig 15 Statue of Alyosha.Lindsay Comer, January 2014

Fig 16 Murmansk World War II memorials.http://archive.justinjin.com(accessed 10 November 2013)

Fig 17 Typical Housing Blocks built during Soviet era in Murmansk.Lindsay Comer, January 2014

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Fig 18 Generic Soviet era housing in Murmansk.Lindsay Comer, January 2014

Fig 19 Murmansk housing in desperate need of modernising.http://www.nordregio.se/en/Metameny/About-Nordregio/Journal-of-Nordregio/Journal-of-Nordregio-no-2-2011/(accessed 30 December 2013)

Fig 20 Abandoned housing in Vorkuta, Russia.http://archive.justinjin.com(accessed 10 November 2013)

Fig 21 ‘Replica City’ - Norilsk.http://siberianwonders.com/2011/03/norilsk-nickel-siberian-city-ghost-workers-taimyr-krasnoyarsk-krai-arctic-russia/(accessed 26 January 2013)

Fig 22 Generic Soviet era urban planning - Norilsk.http://www.geocurrents.info/geoquiz/northern-cities-geoquiz-answers(accessed 05 October 2013)

Fig 23 Collapsed industrial buildings, Murmansk.http://archive.justinjin.com(accessed 10 November 2013)

Fig 24 Existing social problems, Murmansk. http://archive.justinjin.com(accessed 10 November 2013)

Fig 25 Soviet era industry polluting the environment.http://archive.justinjin.com(accessed 08 March 2014)

Fig 26 Abandoned vessels polluting the Arctic waters.http://www.michaeljohngrist.com/2009/09/ice-bound-russian-ships-wrecked-off-kamchatka/#sthash.9NtqugjE.MbhwxYZ1.dpbs(accessed 12 December 2013)

Fig 27 Map of Shtokman’s planned links.http://www.gazprom.com/about/production/projects/deposits/shp/(accessed 10 November 2013)

Fig 28 Previous attempts at exploitation of energy abandoned due to economics.

http://archive.justinjin.com(accessed 08 March 2014)

Fig 29 Prirazlomnaya oil platform, in Murmansk harbour, took over 15 years to complete.

http://archive.justinjin.com(accessed 08 March 2014)

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Fig 30 Abandoned town Teriberka near Murmansk.http://archive.justinjin.com(accessed 08 March 2014)

Fig 31 Murmansk harbour.http://www.lightstalkers.org/images/show/322042 (accessed 23 December 2013)

Fig 32 Kiruna landscape.http://www.fl ickr.com/photos/beefortytwo/(accessed 2 January 2013)

Fig 33 Kiruna early settlement plan.Scieszka, Michal and Smith, Dale. 2012. Nordic Exodus - Moving Kiruna. Glasgow: Scieszka and Smith. pp 13

Fig 34 Projected loss of current city through Iron Ore mine developments.Scieszka, Michal and Smith, Dale. 2012. Nordic Exodus - Moving Kiruna. Glasgow: Scieszka and Smith. pp 15

Fig 35 Sketch of Kiruna being lost to the cities Iron Ore developments.Scieszka, Michal and Smith, Dale. 2012. Nordic Exodus - Moving Kiruna. Glasgow: Scieszka and Smith. pp 12

Fig 36 Iron Ore industry in Kiruna.http://www.fl ickr.com/photos/beefortytwo/(accessed 2 January 2013)

Fig 37 Industry infrastructure to enable export of the Iron Ore.http://www.fl ickr.com/photos/beefortytwo/(accessed 2 January 2013)

Fig 38 Existing city housing, Kiruna.http://www.fl ickr.com/photos/beefortytwo/(accessed 2 January 2013)

Fig 39 Kiruna’s Church - a building of social, architectural and historic importance.

http://www.fl ickr.com/photos/beefortytwo/(accessed 2 January 2013)

Fig 40 Kiruna’s deformed landscape, caused through Iron Ore mining.http://www.fl ickr.com/photos/beefortytwo/(accessed 10 November 2013)

Fig 41 Memorial to railroad workers who helped establish the mining city.http://www.fl ickr.com/photos/beefortytwo/(accessed 2 January 2013)

Fig 42 Winning proposal for relocation of Kiruna.http://www.archdaily.com/339657/relocation-of-the-city-center-of-kiruna-winning-proposal-white-architects/(accessed 8 October 2013)

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Fig 43 Visualisation of Kiruna’s new city.http://www.archdaily.com/339657/relocation-of-the-city-center-of-kiruna-winning-proposal-white-architects/(accessed 8 October 2013)

Fig 44 Ortdrivaren Housing, Ralph Erskine.http://de.academic.ru/pictures/dewiki/79/Ortdrivaren.jpg(accessed 6 February 2013)

Fig 45 Snaking formation of Erskine’s un-built masterplan.Scieszka, Michal and Smith, Dale. 2012. Nordic Exodus - Moving Kiruna. Glasgow: Scieszka and Smith. pp 23

Fig 46 Kiruna - Walking City.Scieszka, Michal and Smith, Dale. 2012. Nordic Exodus - Moving Kiruna. Glasgow: Scieszka and Smith. pp 90

Fig 47 Futuristic visualisation of a ‘gleaming’ Arctic city.http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052748703440604575496261529207620?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052748703440604575496261529207620.html(accessed 5 November 2013)

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I would fi rstly like to express my gratitude to my tutor David Reat, for his committed encouragement and guidance throughout my research and writing.

I would also like to thank Michal Scieszka and David MacIver for their advice during this piece of work, as well as other friends and family for their continued support during my architectural education.

Acknowledgements

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Abstract

Having been at the centre of exploration, natural resource extraction and the climate change debate for an extensive period of time, the Arctic Circle, and interest in this geographic area, is becoming ever more topical. The levels of natural resources thought to exist, and the potential use of the Northwest and Northeast shipping passages, had largely been considered unattractive until the early 20th century. The arrival of urbanisation in the Arctic changed the Far North into an environment dotted with industrial urban settlements. However, with political tensions thawing before the beginning of the 21st century, the region returned to being depicted as an inhospitable environment.

Today the effects of global warming, and changes in the extent of the Arctic sea ice coverage, are making its once hidden treasures more accessible, “exposing this region to new levels of commerce, tourism and military expansion.”1 With such developments causing a scramble for territory, resources and strategic positioning, what ‘The Future Arctic’ will look like is unclear and is becoming of signifi cance to not only to those of the region, but also the rest of the world.

Through examination of the effects of climate change, and both historical and current urbanisation trends, insights into potential future problems that the region may face are uncovered.

The image of ‘The Future Arctic’ which emerges remains complex. Questions over economic and technical viability, as well as how the current conditions of the region’s infrastructure and people are positioned to cope with such changes, highlights an array of problems which will signifi cantly affect the Arctic’s likelihood of witnessing sustainable development.

1 Ritchot, Pamela. 2012. Tuktoyaktuk: Offshore oil and a new Arctic Urbanism. Socio. Journal of the MIT department of Architecture. Issue 40. p 68

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The Arctic Circle has historically been an area of interest for hundreds of years: from explorers trying to reach the North pole, attempts to discover a passage to the Orient, or a quest for valuable resources. This persistent desire to explore the North and its landscape which has for long been “regarded as an inhospitable wasteland”1 has restricted the level of urbanisation of this region, but far from prevented it entirely.

As we are enter an era where the effects of climate change in the Arctic Circle are becoming a reality, the infl ux of interest in this region is beginning to heighten. With Arctic sea ice beginning to melt, there is both concern for the natural environment as well as excitement towards these events which are providing enormous potential for a resource rich area.

This is not the fi rst time that the world has acknowledged the problems and potential that exists within the Arctic. In 1985, Oran R. Young predicted that we were “entering the age of the Arctic.”2 During this time, the frozen landscape had witnessed increased militarisation of the region caused during the Cold War. With this presence, the industrialisation of areas within the Arctic sparked belief that development would continue in this region, into the future.

Shortly after Young’s article, the end of the Cold War saw signifi cant withdrawal of interest in the Arctic. The extreme frozen ice and harsh climate, along with the reduced security fears, meant that the urbanisation of the Arctic stalled. With no reason to populate the region, and the expensive nature of being in such an unforgiving climate, the Arctic returned to being a area of interest to only those small numbers of indigenous people who have mastered living in such conditions, and those left from the historic developments which have come and gone.

Introduction

1 Young, Oran R. and Osherenko, Gail. 1989. The Age of the Arctic - Hot Confl icts and Cold Realities. Cambridge: University Press. p 32 Young, Oran R. 1985. The Age of the Arctic. Foreign Policy Winter 61: pp 160-79. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1148707 [18/11/2013] p 160

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With the increasing effects of climate change becoming apparent in the Arctic, there is much debate about whether we are now entering the “Age of the Arctic?” or the “End of the Arctic?”3

As a result of climate change, the once frozen sea ice which has made conquering the North so diffi cult for centuries is beginning to thaw, reigniting a new found interest in the Arctic and the potential opportunities which exist for those countries enclosing the region.4 However, where there are potential resources and rewards, the opportunity for disagreement and dispute can exist where there is ambiguity:

“Although the melting Arctic holds great promise, it also poses grave dangers. The combination of new shipping routes, trillions of dollars in possible oil and gas resources, and a poorly defi ned picture of state ownership makes for a toxic brew.” 5

With new found interest and rush towards the mining of natural resources which are found in this region, there is increased debate over territory claims and the emergence of viable shipping passages in the Arctic. This sparks concern over an uncalculated drive to infl ict massive change within the Arctic Circle and its population. The lifespan of which, and the continued existence of tradition and population in this region, is unknown. This changing landscape, and melting of sea ice, will open up a new region of the world which has postponed the full extent of potential change for hundreds of years. What this will mean and look like for the people and environment of the Arctic is of great concern.

As a result of political, social, and economic drivers, the Arctic Circle has faced various changes through time - of which many have attracted, and in some cases forced, natives to change their way of life. Moving from reliance on their natural landscape for survival, to depending on industry

3 “Age of the Arctic” was the title of an article by renowned Arctic expert Oran R. Young in the winter edition of Foreign Policy 1985. “End of the Arctic” was the title of a chapter by Arctic specialist Barry S. Zellen, is his book Arctic Doom, Arctic Boom, 2009.4 Zellen, Barry S. 2008. As Climate Change Thins Polar Ice, a New Race for Arctic Resources Begins. Strategic Insights VII.1. http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Publications/Detail/?ots591=0c54e3b3-1e9c-be1e-2c24-a6a8c7060233&lng=en&id=48268 [30/12/2013]5 Borgerson, Scott G. 2008. Arctic Meltdown - The Economic and Security Implications of Global Warming. Foreign Affairs 87.2: pp 63-77. http://www.jstor.org/stable/20032581 [31/12/2013] p 71

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and economic growth in the Arctic has caused signifi cant detrimental changes over decades, leaving their populations in danger of extinction.

Temporary intervention in the Arctic by countries, for varying reasons, has provided short-lived promise for development and change for many settlers. It is important that this pressing desire to urbanise the Arctic is driven for reasons which will provide sustained development, to avoid a reoccurrence of the past disturbance which has been caused for the people within the region.

In order to understand the reason for recent surges in interest in the Arctic Circle, I aim to investigate the level of change which is being forced on this region through climate change and the ultimate loss of the sea ice. Doing this will help us to understand the new prospects which are becoming available to the Arctic. With surfacing of territorial claims, resource allocation, potential shipping passages, as well as other issues, understanding their signifi cance and viability is crucial as we move towards a potential era of further exploitation and urbanisation of the Circumpolar North.

With the Arctic covering a vast geographical area, concentration on the Barents Region through an analysis of the establishment and development of cities which have witnessed urbanisation in the Arctic region - Kiruna, Sweden and Murmansk, Russia - I intend to understand the current issues these cities are facing following historic change, as well as investigating the problems which may arise as this northern region is potentially set to witness extreme development.6 Researching the current conditions of these cities, will provide an opportunity to understand the Arctic strategies of the circumpolar countries related. From this, it is hoped that a clearer picture of what the future Arctic will look like may become clearer.

It is crucial to investigate the historical changes in the Arctic Circle which have encouraged the urbanisation of this once untouched landscape. Through understanding past attempts at occupying the region for

6 The Barents Region is an area of land along the coast of the Barents Sea.

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political and military stronghold motives, as well as the previous attempts to exploit the available resources, this will help to provide a precedent of a previous era of urbanisation and identify some of the potential confl icts and problems which may occur as the region again becomes of signifi cance.

Through this investigation, the aim for this dissertation is to develop an understanding of how the future urbanisation of the Arctic Circle may develop, and to what extent it will be allowed to develop. With recent memories of previous development in the region, and the growing concern about accelerating climate change in mind, there will also be many new aspects which will restrict or facilitate future activity.

This research and analysis of past, present and the potential future developments within the Arctic Circle, is hoped to provide an understanding of what ‘The Future Arctic’ will look like and whether a sustainable future of urbanisation in Arctic Circle is possible, or whether the race to exploit this region will be short lived and follow historical examples of the continued decline of permanent population and further damage of the natural environment.

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Chapter 1Historical Urbanisation in the Arctic Circle

1.1 - Urbanisation and the Arctic

The term urbanisation was defi ned by Kingsley Davis as “the switch from a spread out pattern of human settlement to one of concentration in urban centres.”1, 2 Upon refl ection of the Arctic region many may consider it as a barren landscape, populated only by the sparse indigenous people migrating across vast wilderness having mastered survival in such an unforgiving climate. The reality is that the region has progressed quite dramatically from this past representation. Instead, from the early 20th century, increasing population growth has been occurring in urban developments. This type of urban settlement is not traditional to the typically nomadic population which previously were the only known people inhabiting the Arctic landscape.

Several key events in history, and in particular during the 20th century, are responsible for the rapid urbanisation of this region which is often not fully appreciated. To put this into context, and give an understanding of the level of urban living in the Arctic, Figure 1 highlights the proportion of population which are currently living in urban settlements as opposed to rural. Currently, around 80% of Russia’s northern population is living within urban environments and its is a similar situation in other Arctic countries.3 With this region attracting political, economic and social interest, there is great belief that the Arctic will become increasingly more populated in order to fulfi ll the varying desires of the Arctic countries.

In order to predict what the current drivers of urbanisation in the Arctic will mean for this region as it becomes of increasing signifi cance to the world, we must fi rst look at the historical drivers. In particular, what has infl uenced the native and migrant population of the Arctic to become

1 Davis was a recognised Professor of sociology and demography.2 Davis, Kingsley. 1965. The Urbanization of the Human Population. Scientifi c America3 Rasmussen, Rasmus O. ed. 2011. Megatrends. Copenhagen: Nordic Council of Ministers. p 24

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Figure 1: Population in cities and rural settlements in 2010.

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more urban, and what lessons can be taken to ensure that these new changes in the Arctic are carried out in a sustainable manner.4

1.2 - Drivers of Historical Urbanisation

The Arctic circle has historically been an area which has been exposed to political and military regimes over time. These have had signifi cant infl uence on the landscape of the Arctic which has changed and will continue to do so; both in terms of infrastructure created and the impacts this has had on the ecological aspects of the Circumpolar North. Depending on the national signifi cance it had to each country, the level of militarisation and political importance prior to World War II and the Cold War era varied across the countries with Arctic territory.

Before the outbreak of World War II, and subsequently the Cold War era which would dominate the Arctic region for nearly 50 years, the two largest powers either side of the North Pole had dealt with their northern regions in very different ways.5 Many “inhabitants of the Arctic lived in autarky: economic self-suffi ciency and independence”6 until particularly during the 20th century, government and military interventions initiated the largest transformation of the Arctic Circle to date, setting a precedent and driver for future change now being predicted in this part of the world. Whilst most Arctic countries left this region predominantly untouched, the northlands of the Soviet Union dealt with their territory in a very different manner.7 The communist party of the time, based on the ideas of Lenin and Marx had signifi cant interest in the Arctic region in the 1920’s. With undefi ned territorial control, the regime looked at political and administrative control of the region and in particular how “to establish ‘Soviet power’ in the North?”8 Initial policies were in many ways seen

4 Sustainability is defi ned as “development which meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” in World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987. Our Common Future. Oxford: Oxford University Press. p155 World War II - 1939 to 1945, Cold War era - 1947 to 1991 .6 UArctic. 2007. Secondary Societies: Centralization, Collectivization, and Relocation. http://www.uarctic.org/singleNewsArticle.aspx?m=502&amid=3169 [27/12/2013]7 Armstrong, Terence and Rogers, George and Rowley, Graham. 1978. The Circumpolar North: A Political and Economic Geography of the Arctic and sub-Arctic. London: Metheun & Co Ltd. pp 818 McCannon, John. 1998. Red Arctic: Polar Exploration and the Myth of the North in the Soviet Union, 1932-1939. New York: Oxford UP. p 21

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Figure 3: Traditional indigenous settlement.

Figure 2: Typical Arctic herding which was targeted during the period of collectivisation.

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as a positive for the indigenous people by supporting their populations through being omitted from local and state taxes and the mandatory labour and military activities that were present under Soviet power.

During Soviet reign, natives of the northern regions of Russia became seen “as economic assets.”9 The protection of their culture and tradition was short lived, with the collectivisation of farms as part of Stalin’s First Five-Year plan to supply other interests of the Soviet Union in the Arctic, resulting in their independence and privileges disappearing.10 In order to control state farms many native people were relocated, causing “destruction of the traditional economic structure, way of life, blood relations, and community relations.”11 They were being moved to urban settlements where southerners were also being forced to occupy in order to try and create a self-suffi cient Arctic to fuel the industrialisation of the North.

“The Arctic and our northern regions contain colossal wealth. We must create a Soviet organization which can, in the shortest period possible, include this wealth in the general resources of our socialist economic structure.”Joseph Stalin12

With the failure of the collectivisation, 1932 saw Stalin’s new organisation, known as Glavsevmorput, aim to develop the Northern Sea Route and control the exploitation of the regions natural resources.13 With this, government groups aimed to bring modern Soviet life to these regions by offering education, and medicine through the deployment of ‘Red Tents.’ Many of these services were dismissed by the natives who were generally objective to the forced regime.

“We have no use for the Red Tent. Our fathers and grandfathers knew nothing about red tents, yet they lived better than we do.” (Member of an indigenous tribe)14

9 McCannon, 1998, op. cit., p 2210 Stalin’s Five-Year plans, of which there were 3 between 1928 and 1941, were part of his plan to industrialise the Soviet Union. 11 UArctic, op. cit.12 McCannon, 1998, op. cit., p 3313 Ibid., p 3114 Ibid., p 52

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Figure 4: Stalin’s gulag labour camp workers build an Arctic railroad.

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Much of this industrialisation was not met by the natives who opposed of the ideas and therefore Stalin’s Gulag’s became key in progression of Soviet power in the Arctic Circle.15 These camps were often seen as “more than just a convenient way to punish criminals and silence political dissidents - it was a deliberate decision to industrialize the Soviet Union.”16

The importance of these camps and the Soviet desire to conquer the North became of crucial importance with the outbreak of World War II. During which the establishment of infrastructure, industry and shipping ports which they created became of key signifi cance to support Russia in the battle against Nazi Germany. Arctic convoys from the UK passing through icy waters were crucial in supporting the effort to end the war, supplying the Soviet Union with vital military supplies. During this period, further abolishment of protection for the indigenous people of the Arctic was evident, through mandatory military service to facilitate the mass deployment of supplies across the region.

Following the end of the Second World War, the next greatest and longest lasting military and political intervention in the Arctic Circle was the outbreak of the Cold War in around 1947. The two Cold War superpowers, the United States of America and the Soviet Union, would assert changes on the Circumpolar North which would change the region into a landscape signifi cantly different from what existed before.

“Not only did the Cold War transform the region into an atomic-era battlefi eld, placing it under the perpetual threat of military annihilation, it caused astounding amounts of damage to the ecosystem, beyond anything the North had experienced in the past.” 17

In contrast to Russia, Canada had in many ways allowed the Arctic natives to remain nomadic and spread across the region whilst the relocation of their ancestors was happening across the Arctic Ocean. Due to the

15 Gulag, Glavnoe Upravlenie ispravitel’no-trudovykh LAGerei, was an institution which was the main administration of corrective labor camps. These camps were used as a method of punishment during the Soviet era, being administered throughout the country, but in particular in the Arctic regions. 16 Smith, Laurence C. 2012. The New North: The World in 2050. London: Profi le. p 18017 McCannon, John. 2012. A History of the Arctic: Nature, Exploration and Exploitation. London: Reaktion. p 236

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Figure 5: Example of Stalin’s industrial movements which polluted the Arctic, built 1937.

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Canadian Policy of Dispersal and preserving traditional culture, it was not until nearer the middle of the 20th century that the Canadian Arctic witnessed relocation and government policies which would entice change on the region.18 The introduction of the ‘welfare state’ in the 1940’s saw the implementation of family allowances and developments in “health, education and social services” which “attracted many Delta residents off the land.”19

With the pressures of Cold War increasing during the 1950’s, the issue of enhancing sovereignty in northern Canada saw widespread forced settlement and control over the natives.20 Although natural resource exploitation had already taken place, it appeared that the Cold War had fuelled Canada’s urgency to demonstrate a sense of authority and presence in the far north.

“Apparently we have administered these vast territories of the north in an almost continuing state of absence of mind.”Louis St. Laurent, Prime Minister of Canada, 195321

The “Canadian enthusiasm for northern resource development”22 was unconsciously forcing urban development of the region with which the “emergence of such feelings of alienation in turn contributed to the rise of social problems, such as suicide, violence, the breaking of laws, and alcohol abuse.”23

This type of forced industrialisation and urbanisation initially appeared as an opportunity for some, but the long term affects soon became apparent and are further illustrated in the case studies of chapter 3. With possibilities of similar developments reoccurring as we witness a rush towards exploiting the Arctic resources which are being revealed by the melting sea ice, history provides vital lessons which we can learn from to promote sustainable developments in this region.

18 Damas, D. 2002. Arctic Migrants, Arctic Villagers: The Transformation of Inuit Settlement in the Central Arctic. Montreal: McGill-Queen’s University Press.19 Hill, Dick. 2008. Inuvik: A History, 1958-2008 : The Planning, Construction and Growth of an Arctic Community. Victoria, BC: Trafford. p 2520 UArctic, op. cit.21 Parkin, Raleigh. 1966. The Origin of the Institute. Arctic Institute of North America. 19.1: pp 5-18. http://arctic.synergiesprairies.ca/arctic/index.php/arctic/article/view/3410/3385. [07/03/2013]pp 522 Hill, op. cit., p 2623 UArctic, op. cit.

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2.1 - Arctic Climate Change

Climate change is something which for many is seen as a “distant future hazard”1 or approached with the familiar view of “what difference can I alone really make?”2 The reality is becoming more evident that climate change, and in particular climate change in the Arctic, is going to infl ict change across the entire globe.

“The fate of the earth and the fate of the Arctic appear united.” 3

In 2004, the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) produced a report titled the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) which is widely regarded as the most comprehensive report depicting high quality data about the climate and pollution issues of the Arctic Circle.4 The signifi cance of the Arctic in the discussion of climate change is because this region witnesses change at a more rapid rate than anywhere else, due to the axis and rotation of the Earth.5

With this in mind, the vast changes currently occurring in the Arctic ice are a serious cause for concern as they act as an early indicator of climate change, as well as being a driver for acceleration or reduction of future global warming. “Just as miners once had canaries to warn of rising concentrations of noxious gases, researchers working on climate changes rely on arctic sea ice as an early warning system.”6

1 Bates, Peter, ed. 2009. Climate Change and Arctic Sustainable Development: Scientifi c, Social, Cultural and Educational Challenges. Paris: UNESCO.2 An Inconvenient Truth. 2006. Dir. Davis Guggenheim. Prod. Laurie David, Lawrence Bender, and Scott Z. Burns. Los Angeles: Paramount Pictures Corp.3 Zellen, Barry Scott. 2009. Arctic Doom, Arctic Boom: The Geopolitics of Climate Change in the Arctic. Santa Barbara, CA: Praeger. p 54 As opposed to other reports which depict worst-case or best-case scenarios, the ACIA provides a middle ground, making it more widely acknowledged.5 Hassol, Susan J. ed. 2004. Impacts of a Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Cambridge: Cambridge UP. p 86 Ibid., p 25

Chapter 2Changing Landscape - Prospects and Fears

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Figure 6: Climate change and melting Arctic sea ice.

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Sea ice in the last 30 years has been rapidly reducing by around 8% annually, with this trend only expected to accelerate with time. This continued loss of sea ice coverage is increasing dramatically with summer ice reductions of between 15 - 20% having been measured. Not only is the extent of the ice reducing, but the thickness is also vastly decreasing. Single-year ice typically melts in the summer, whilst much thicker, multi-year ice tends to remain due to its avoidance of being melted by southern waters. In 2004, ice thickness was shown to have diminished by approximately 10-15%, and reduced in certain areas by as much as 40% between the 1960’s and 1990’s.7

The Arctic region which has been “iced-over for millennia”8 has played a massive role in keeping the planet cool and avoiding too much of the sun’s energy being absorbed.

“For millions of years, the great dome of brilliant white ice at the top of the planet has refl ected the 24-hour polar summer sunlight back into space, helping cool the entire globe. As the ice turns sea dark and soaks up the sun, the planet’s warming will really take off.” 9

This is known as the albedo effect. The continued concentration of harmful greenhouse gases causing the planet’s temperature to increase, means snow and ice begins to form later in the autumn and melt earlier in the spring. This increasing loss of ice cover in the Arctic Region results in more energy from the sun being absorbed by the planet, accelerating global warming.

Warming of the Arctic climate and the speed in which it is occurring, implies a projected loss of summer sea ice by the end of this century, as well as climate model averages showing a 50% decline in the extent of annual average sea ice by 2100.10 Calculating the timescale of such change is extremely diffi cult and complex to predict. Nevertheless, it is becoming apparent that a momentous change, and its resulting

7 Hassol, op. cit., p 25 8 Zellen, 2008, op. cit.9 Anderson, Alun. 2009b. The Great Melt: The Coming Transformation of the Arctic. World Policy Journal 26.4 : pp 53-64. http://www.jstor.org/stable/40468738 [30/12/2013] p 6310 Hassol, op. cit., p 30

23

Figure 7: Arctic ice-shelf and shipping routes.

24

implications, will be witnessed in the Arctic in the impending future.

2.2 - Impacts of Arctic Climate Change

“The environmental impact of the melting Arctic has been dramatic. Polar bears are becoming an endangered species, fi sh never before found in the Arctic are migrating to its warming waters, and thawing tundra is being replaced with temperate forests. Greenland is experiencing a farming boom, as once-barren soil now yields broccoli, hay, and potatoes. Less ice also means increased access to Arctic fi sh, timber, and minerals, such as lead, magnesium, nickel, and zinc—not to mention immense freshwater reserves, which could become increasingly valuable in a warming world. If the Arctic is the barometer by which to measure the earth’s health, these symptoms point to a very sick planet indeed.” 11

The impacts of Arctic climate change are vast as outlined above. As the ice disappears, economic opportunities for use of the North-east and North-west sea passages for shipping, resource exploitation and tourism, as well as others, are attracting global attention.12

“Ironically, the great melt is likely to yield more of the very commodities that precipitated it: fossil fuels.” 13

These seemingly ever more realistic opportunities are not unanimously supported. With the prospect of increased industrialisation and urbanisation of the Arctic Circle, there will arguably be many negative impacts: exacerbated climate change, increased pollution from shipping and industry, infrastructure damage, economic and cultural impacts for the people, coastal erosion, wildlife and natural habitat changes; as well as sovereignty issues over land and resources.

With the urbanisation of the North being particularly driven by the fallout effect of climate change,14 an understanding of the associated problems

11 Borgerson, op. cit., p 6712 Also known as Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route.13 Borgerson, op. cit., p 6714 Other drivers include increased demand, and political instability of some Middle Eastern reserves.

25

Figure 8: Prospective Gas and Oil Reserves.

26

and opportunities being created by these changes, now and in the future is paramount. Inevitably, the intention is to understand if the urbanisation of the Arctic will continue, and if so, to what extent its development may be limited?

The two most widely anticipated activities which appear to becoming increasingly accessible, are the future natural resource developments and the emergence of shipping passages.

Due to the continued increases in the global population, use of natural resources hitting record heights and existing fi elds output reducing, the desire to access new reserves is becoming more attractive and increasingly important.15 Despite the knowledge of the Arctic regions natural resources, off-shore oil and gas reserves have remained untapped due to the accessibility issues which the sea ice causes. However, even with the reduction of sea ice, we are not witnessing the anticipated appearance of oil and gas fi elds littering the Arctic Ocean.16

The anticipated rush towards extracting Arctic reserves has many other obstacles to overcome other than the sole issue of sea ice. Firstly, as acknowledged by Scott Borgerson, “more is known about the surface of Mars than about the Arctic Ocean’s deep.”17 There are not only large knowledge gaps with regards to the Arctic sea environment to overcome initially, but also the economic viability and the varying levels of technical capability, amongst the Arctic countries, to carry out the potential developments. This means that we will not necessarily witness the full potential of offshore Arctic natural resource development in the near future. Instead, each country will develop these in varying ways and at different timescales.

Other than the desire for natural resource development in the Arctic, there is a also a lure towards the use of the shipping passages through the Circumpolar North which are becoming increasingly accessible.

15 United Nations. 2011. Humanity’s voracious consumption of natural resources unsustainable - UN report. http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=38366#.UxOh26TiuUl [04/03/2014]16 Borgerson, op. cit., p 6817 Ibid., p 67

27

Figure 9: LUKoil off-shore oil terminal (not an oil drilling platform) serving Arctic tankers.

28

“Traffi c is certainly going to grow, but the old dream of an easily navigable short cut between Atlantic and Pacifi c is likely to remain a mirage far into the future.” 18

Certainly increased shipping in key regions of the Arctic is already becoming possible as well as providing access for tourism to become more frequent. However, there are issues such as: lack of infrastructure and shipping ports, as well as the effects of Arctic conditions on cargo,19 economics of icebreakers versus current shipping routes passing through the Panama and Suez Canals due to complete loss of Arctic ice not happening in the immediate future, amongst others which will heavily reduce the extent of use of the North-east and North-west sea passages into the future.20 With sea ice becoming more mobile and dynamic, meaning loss of relatively stable conditions, there are also concerns over unknown developing Arctic Ocean conditions and loss of relatively stable conditions which exist currently.21

“The Arctic region is not currently governed by any comprehensive multilateral norms and regulations because it was never expected to become a navigable waterway or a site for large-scale commercial development. Decisions made by Arctic powers in the coming years will therefore profoundly shape the future of the region for decades.” 22

With enormous potential change in the Arctic becoming more apparent and the region not governed by any in depth regulations and law, there is again potential for confl ict to return to this area, with speculation of a ‘New Cold War’ being discussed in the media.23 The vast resources that were once protected by ice are now increasingly accessible, meaning that the Arctic is becoming ever more important to its neighbouring countries economic interests, as well as their security concerns.

18 Anderson, 2009b, op. cit., p 6119 Anderson, Alun M. 2009a. After the Ice: Life, Death, and Geopolitics in the New Arctic. New York: Smithsonian. p 218.“The Arctic will always be cold. Although bulk cargoes, including iron ore, coal, and fertiliser, aren’t too much affected by a week below freezing, computers from China, cars from Japan, and the manufactured goods that fi ll many container ships will not be so happy.” 20 Hassol, op. cit., p 8321 Ibid., p 8422 Borgerson, op. cit., p 6523 Galeotti, Mark. 2008. Cold Calling - Competition Heats up for Arctic. Jane’s Intelligence Review 20.10: pp 8-15.

29

Figure 10: Arctic Ice-breaker.

30

The potential wealth of the Arctic Ocean, and in particular the unresolved claims for seabed resources has seen a surge in the Arctic countries trying to ensure they successfully claim some of the resources which exist beneath the ice.24

Despite co-operation in the Arctic region, since the end of the Cold War, having been generally carried out in a peaceful manner through organisations such as the Arctic Council; there have been exceptions.25, 26

“The Arctic is ours.” Arthur Chilingarov, a celebrated Soviet-era explorer27

Most dramatically, the fl ag planting expedition in 2007 saw “Russia symbolically stake its claim to billions of dollars worth of oil and gas reserves.”28 Following Russia’s public announcement, Peter MacKay, Canada’s foreign affairs minister, followed by reminding Russia that “this isn’t the fi fteenth century. You can’t go around the world and just plant fl ags and say, ‘We’re claiming this territory.’”29

Such claims can only be seen as a publicity “stunt,”30 and instead claims for an extension of the 200 nautical mile zone around the north of their coastline must be placed through the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, UNCLOS.31 This zone from the coast line, gives exclusive economic rights to that area “with respect to natural resources and certain economic activities, and exercise jurisdiction over marine science research and environmental protection.”32

With a successful claim, of which none currently exist in the Arctic, to extend this 200 nautical mile zone becoming a priority for Arctic countries

24 Hassol, op. cit., p 8425 Young, Oran R. 2000. The Structure of Arctic Cooperation: Solving Problems / Seizing Opportunities. www.arcticparl.org/fi les/images/conf4_sac.pdf [05/03/2014]26 The Arctic Council is an intergovernmental forum, addressing Arctic issues through co-operation.27 Galeotti, op. cit., p 228 Parfi tt, Tom. 2007. Russia plants fl ag on North Pole seabed. The Guardian. 2nd August. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2007/aug/02/russia.arctic [04/03/2014]29 Anderson, 2009b, op. cit., p 5530 Fairhall, David. 2010. Cold Front - Confl ict Ahead in Arctic Waters. London: I.B. Tauris. p 3731 Howard, Roger. 2009. The Arctic Gold Rush: The New Race for Tomorrow’s Natural Resources. London: Continuum. p 332 United Nations. 1982. United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. http://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/convention_overview_convention.htm [04/03/2014]

31

Figure 11: Damaged Arctic pipeline being repaired.

32

to ensure exclusivity to the vast resources, government policies are placing increased importance on subsea research which is required to prove that these areas are a continuation of their continental shelf.

Whilst much of the focus is typically regarding potential economic gain, issues of the natural and built environment for those inhabiting the Arctic, and in particular the urban areas, is equally important when trying to understand whether the Arctic can urbanise in a sustainable manner.

Increases in temperature and continued thawing of permafrost will mean that much of the existing infrastructure built on this frozen land will begin to collapse, thus leaving uninhabitable and unusable housing and industry.33 With damages to existing oil pipelines and other infrastructure already failing, the threat to the natural environment is coming both from climate change as well as pollution from both historical and potential future activities.

With such concerns, there will be a requirement for increased Arctic services from the governments such as “icebreaking assistance, improved ice charting and forecasting, enhanced emergency response in dangerous situations, and greatly improved oil-ice cleanup capabilities.”34

Currently, many of these services do not exist and will require signifi cant investment to implement. The balance of economic investment against that of economic gain for the Arctic countries is an issue which will infl uence how the region is developed.

The importance of these opportunities, as well as the misfortunes being driven by climate change in the Arctic is diffi cult to fully predict for a region which contains eight countries, all of which have placed varying levels of governmental policies and national importance to the area. It is therefore important to understand these prospects and fears in relation to the people who inhabit the Far North. Not only do the economic and environmental aspects crucially help to understand the likelihood of future urbanisation and what the future may be like in the Arctic, but equally as important the social aspects will greatly alter how the Arctic is developed.

33 Hassol, op. cit., p 8834 Ibid., p 84

33

34

3.1 - Barents Region

“As a geopolitical frontier, Barents is about natural resources, about becoming “the new Middle East. [...] Very powerful interests from all over the world are ready to turn the region into construction sites, oilrigs, gas-fi elds, mines and more. This is what Barents is heading towards today. The rest of the First World is moving in the opposite direction.”Morten A. Strøksnes1

The Barents Region is “Europe’s largest region for interregional cooperation”2 which includes northern parts of Sweden, Norway, Finland and Northwest Russia. This area is particularly interesting and important in understanding what potential future urbanisation is likely to take place in the Arctic Circle. It contains vast natural resources: forests, fi sh, minerals, diamonds, oil and gas, and with these it provides great opportunities for future development, but also great challenges for the environment, infrastructure and people.

This dissertation will now look at two case studies, Murmansk and Kiruna, and look at past, present and future urbanisation of these cities. Both cities are found in the Barents Region, where climate change and potential future development in the Arctic landscape will make them ever more crucial in ensuring a sustainable approach for future urbanisation is achieved. A comparison between one which has potential to change, Murmansk, against a city currently undergoing extreme change, Kiruna, will help to provide an understanding if the Arctic has the potential to urbanise in a way which will ensure its future sustainability.

Chapter 3Urbanisation Case Studies

1 Northern Experiments. 2009a. The Global Pull of Resources. http://www.northernexperiments.net/index.php?/chapters/global-pool-of-resources/ [30/12/2013]2 Barents Info. Barents Region. http://www.barentsinfo.org/Barents-region/ [30/12/2013]

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Figure 12: Overview of Murmansk.

36

3.2 - Murmansk, Russia

The Past

The city of Murmansk is the largest of its kind within the Arctic Circle and has historically played an enormous role in strategic terms for the Soviet military and industrial economics.3 With current changes to the state of the Arctic environment, Murmansk is positioned to reap both the rewards and deal with the penalties of possible urban transformation of this region in northern Russia.

Murmansk’s ice free port has been a key characteristic in its historical development and provides future prospects for this Arctic city. The city was originally established in 1915 with the completion of rail links to St. Petersburg in order to have a northern port connected to central Russia during periods of confl ict. Its status as a port city has been historically important, being one of the only ways for the country to receive vital supplies most notably during World War II.

Industrialisation during the early years of Murmansk’s development caused “one of the most rapid urbanisations in world history”4 which saw this once remote and inaccessible area of Arctic Russia become of strong economic and of strategic military importance to the country. Murmansk quickly grew to become the largest city in the Arctic Circle with populations growing “spectacularly from 8,800 in 1926 to 117,000 in 1939, and then to 222,000 in 1959.”5 Fuelled by the Soviet Union’s plans to industrialise the North, Murmansk saw its population grow to its highest level of over 450,000 during the 1980’s. Throughout this population infl ux and urban development, state power and in particular the use of Stalin’s infamous ‘gulag’ labour camps between the 1930’s and 1950’s was the main driver of this.6 These labour camps were a

3 Smith, 2012, op. cit., p 2164 Rautio, Vesa, and Tykkylä inen, Markku, eds. 2008. Russia’s Northern Regions on the Edge: Communities, Industries, and Populations from Murmansk to Magadan. Helsinki: Aleksanteri Institute. p 315 Ibid., p 426 Didyk, Vladimir and Riobova, Larissa. 2013. Socio-economic development of the Murmansk region - trends and prospects. Baltic Rim Economies. Quarterly 2.3: pp 8-9. http://www.utu.fi /fi /yksikot/tse/yksikot/PEI/BRE/Documents/2013/BRE%202-2013%20web.pdf [30/12/2013] p 8

37

Figure 13: War Effort Arms for Russia.

38

method of Soviet punishment which involved deploying prisoners to the Russian Arctic to create the infrastructure required for both the military presence through ports and bases as well as industrial developments to take advantage of the vast natural resources.

Prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union, the reigniting of interest in the Arctic was largely due to the lack of strategic positioning experienced during past confl icts and the countries need for natural resources to rebuild and develop the country following the destruction of cities during both World War’s - this also meant that there was a requirement for labour in the far north.7 The end of the labour camps made it a necessity to develop methods to attract and entice people to work and live in these Arctic regions. During the communist era, the region’s natural resources were being exploited to provide energy for domestic markets and Soviet Bloc countries.8 Ideologically, in that period, energy production was not driven through profi t incentives and therefore state subsidies known as the “Northern Benefi ts” became one of the methods of encouraging people to move and work in these remote regions.9

Of course with such infl ux of population into the Arctic cities, and in particular Murmansk, housing and other infrastructure was required. This was more crucial during the period of state incentives and therefore quality of housing, living conditions and wages were typically higher than the rest of the country in order to attract people to the region.10 During the Soviet system there was a positive governmental attitude towards urbanisation of the Far North and the principle in general. It was widely seen as a progressive movement with the rural communities depicted as outdated and having a backwards mentality.11 This helped to attract people to move to more urban settlements and away from the traditional indigenous methods of survival as there were prospects of improved living conditions as well as greater opportunities for personal economic growth.

7 Laruelle, Marlè ne. 2013. Russia’s Arctic Strategies and the Future of the Far North. London: M.E.Sharpe. p 268 Soviet Bloc countries were communist nations closely allied with the Soviet Union.9 Laurelle, op. cit., p 2710 Didyk and Riabova, op. cit., p 811 Rautio and Tykkylä inen, op. cit., p 115

39

Figure 15: Statue of Alyosha.

Figure 14: Murmansk housing block with ‘Hero-City’ sign in Russian.

40

The second world war emphasised the strategic importance of Murmansk as it was targeted by Nazi Germany. It was bombed and attacked heavily, most notably on 29th June 1941, when Murmansk was under siege to try and break down the Arctic convoy links that the Soviet Union had with its allies. However, the city managed to continue to operate despite this, leaving Murmansk to remain of strategic importance during the remainder of the war. This was later recognised by the Soviet Union in 1985 when it was given the ‘Hero City’ title and today still presents itself with this image as the statue of Alyosha, the second largest memorial in Russia, watches over the city.12

This resilience became characteristic of Murmansk and the region continued its military importance during the cold war - those who inhabited the Russian Arctic were thought of as “national heroes”13 providing the country with the vital natural resources as well as a military and strategic stronghold during a period of increased tension. Despite the wide conceptions of the Arctic as a pristine tundra of natural beauty,14 for much of the 20th century the Far North was an area being polluted by the huge industrialisation and search for natural resources, as well as a war zone in both the political and literal sense.

Where previous confl icts had been literal, the Cold War period (1947 - 1991) was a time of political hostility and military rivalry between the Western powers and the Soviet bloc. During which, the Arctic resources became a security risk as the region was “characterised by confrontation, the arms race, divided security and confl ict lines.”15 With tensions rising, Murmansk became the home of the Northern Fleet and was the submarine base of the Soviet Navy. As the “epicentre of the Cold War”16 the city became crucial in facilitating the standoff with the United States, home to vast numbers of nuclear warships and submarines.

1st October 1987 became a fundamental turning point for the Arctic

12 Alyosha was built in 1974 to commemorate the World War II fi ghters who lost their lives and prevented the Nazi seize of the Arctic. 13 Rautio and Tykkylä inen, op. cit., p 11314 Emmerson, Charles. 2011. The Future History of the Arctic: How Climate, Resources and Geopolitics Are Reshaping the North, and Why It Matters to the World. London: Vintage. p 315 Chaturvedi, Sanjay. 1996. The Polar Regions: A Political Geography. Chichester: Wiley. p 8316 Konstam, Angus. 2010. Naval Miscellany. Oxford: Osprey Publishing Company

41

Figure 16: Murmansk World War II memorials.

42

Circle and all associated as it aided in initiating the ‘thawing of the Cold War’ and the fall of the ‘iron curtain’ which had separated the potential nuclear confrontation between the Soviet Union and the United states of America.17 This ignited the desire of “preventing the North of the planet, its Polar and sub-Polar regions and all Northern countries from ever again becoming an arena of war, and in forming there a genuine zone of peace and fruitful cooperation.”18

The closing words of the Murmansk speech in October 1987 which has become known as the Murmansk Initiative continues to highlight the importance of this city to both Russia and all those effected by confl ict and industrialisation in the Far North. The elements of “increased bilateral and multilateral cooperation in the Arctic in such areas as energy, science and the environment, and the Soviet Union’s interest in the creation of an Arctic Sciences Council, as well as the development of cultural links among the ingenious peoples of the North”19 were widely accepted as a positive step towards peace in the Arctic. Although the reactions were generally positive, there were several elements of caution which were highlighted.

Despite the initial concerns, regarding reduction in military security and nuclear arms control, towards the now famous Murmansk speech; it highlights the political importance of the city to Russia.20 It was both a physical port to the rest of the world as well as a political port which aimed to increase co-operation in the Arctic Circle.

The Present, Shaped in the Past

Following the Murmansk speech there was a reduction in military presence in the Arctic prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. With this, Russia’s Arctic regions became of reduced interest and importance to

17 A notional barrier separating the former Soviet bloc and the West prior to the decline of communism that followed the political events in eastern Europe in 1989.18 Gorbachev, Mikhail. 1987. The Murmansk Speech of 1987.19 Purver, Ronald. 1988. Arctic Security: The Murmansk Initiative and its Impact. Current Research on Peace and Violence 11.4: pp 127-158. http://www.jstor.org/stable/40725103 [04/02/2014] p 150 20 The important issue during Gorbachev’s era was to remove the political standoff between the East and West - which has at least at a nuclear level been an unqualifi ed success. Although, Russia and West political tensions still exist today, they relate to the ideological differences and do not have an apparent ‘Armageddon’ risk to them.

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Figure 18: Generic Soviet era housing in Murmansk.

Figure 17: Typical Housing Blocks built during Soviet era in Murmansk.

44

the country. Deputy prime minister at the time, Egor Gaidar, highlighted this change in attitude towards the Arctic describing it as “overpopulated” and “redundant.”21 Murmansk, being the largest city in the Arctic Circle, became one the most effected cities following the collapse of the Soviet Union as so much of its purpose was now viewed as an “expenditure rather than important contributors to the country’s economy.”22

“During the Soviet period we [workers in the north] felt like we were heroes, working for the good of the country. Then one day we were told that it was all for nothing. Imagine that. To be told that all our efforts were for nothing, we did not know how to feel, had we been tricked? Was Moscow just going to steal the gold? Then at the same time I lost my savings and my wages became worthless. We went from having everything to having nothing almost overnight and what prospects did we have? We could not leave the region and we could see what we had built dying before our eyes.”Svetlana Polchenko (Post - Stalin migrant)23

One of the main problems currently within the city of Murmansk is the decreasing population. During the Soviet era subsidies, better quality housing at the time and well paid work, encouraged high levels of population infl ux. Population levels in 2006 were 321,000. A signifi cant reduction of 32% compared to peak levels of 472,000 in 1989.24 This loss of population has several causes - mainly being the abolishment of Soviet government subsidies and withdrawal of interest meaning that the city was unable to sustain its population level with employment.25 The other main contributors are the centralised dependency on natural resources, high levels of out-migration, as well as the “high mortality and low birth rates.”26

Despite this reduction in population, the city continues to have issues of unemployment, which even with government support in the early 2000’s,

21 Round, John. 2005. Rescaling Russia’s Geography: The Challenges of Depopulating the Northern Periphery. Europe-Asia Studies 54.5: pp 705-727. http://www.jstor.org/stable/30043947 [10/02/2014] p 71822 Rautio and Tykkylä inen, op. cit., p 11323 Round, op. cit., p 71824 Rautio and Tykkylä inen, op. cit., p 4125 Ibid., p 4826 Didyk and Riabova, op. cit., p 927 Ibid., p 9

45

Figure 20: Abandoned housing in Vorkuta, Russia.

Figure 19: Murmansk housing in desperate need of modernising.

46

remains higher than the national average.27 The city relied heavily on natural resources during the 20th century which was possible due to the fact it was not driven by external markets.28 Today, although the output of natural resources is declining, affecting population and employment levels, Murmansk and the Kola Peninsula still provides Russia with economic gains due to the high international market prices.29

The collapse of the Soviet Union, and withdrawal of interest in the North, meant that Murmansk has started to feel the effects of the Soviet architecture and urban planning. The infrastructure is beginning to deteriorate due to its age and neglect and is contributing to furthering the existing social problems.

Russia has always been a centralised state30 and the centralised government control over the Arctic region during the Soviet era was of positive contribution to Murmansk. The necessity for strategic and political presence meant that the state had to ensure the city functioned in order to retain a stronghold in the region and had done so by providing incentives to make it an attractive city to live in despite the harsh climate.

Following the Soviet Union’s collapse, the economic viability of utilising the Arctic’s natural resources became less attractive. Production levels reduced due to the low international oil prices at the time (1990’s), which meant there was little incentive for Russian oil companies to invest in the region.31

It was not only the production levels which suffered, but also the ageing Soviet infrastructure which, although provided higher quality living than most of Russia during its early years, was never suitable to sustain the Arctic environment in the long term and is now beginning to show strain.

The urban transformation of the Arctic took place in the generic Soviet

28 Rautio and Tykkylä inen, op. cit., p 11729 Staalesen, Atle. 2012. In Murmansk, a stagnating economy. Barents Observer. 19th June. http://barentsobserver.com/en/business/murmansk-stagnating-economy [30/12/2013]30 Laurelle, op. cit., p 6331 Gordon, Deborah and Sautin, Yevgen. 2013. Opportunities and Challenges Confronting Russian Oil. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 28th May. http://carnegieendowment.org/2013/05/28/opportunities-and-challenges-confronting-russian-oil/g6x5 [28/02/2014]

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Figure 22: Generic Soviet era urban planning - Norilsk.

Figure 21: ‘Replica City’ - Norilsk.

48

32 Northern Experiments. 2009b. The Barents Urban Survey. http://www.northernexperiments.net/index.php?/murmansk/ [30/12/2013]33 Pereltsvaig, Asya. 2012a. The Siberian Curse: Whither Siberia? GeoCurrents. 16th May. http://www.geocurrents.info/place/russia-ukraine-and-caucasus/siberia/the-siberian-curse-whence-siberia [28/02/2014]34 Laurelle, op. cit., p 8135 Pereltsvaig, 2012a, op. cit.36 Didyk and Riabova , op. cit., p 8

manner with several examples of what appear to be “artifi cial” replica cities found elsewhere in southern parts of Russia.32 One notable example of this is the centre of Norilsk, a mining industry city located within the extreme climatic conditions of the Arctic Circle and that of Lenin Square in St. Petersburg which has extremely similar architectural characteristics. The Soviet Union’s superpower status, as well as the fact that many architects were exiled, appear the most likely scenarios for this countrywide Soviet architectural character.

“Russia’s urban areas did not naturally grow from villages to towns to cities; instead many were created or at least enhanced artifi cially, Frankenstein-style, in the Soviet period, when planners dictated development based on natural resource exploitation or industrial production needs.” 33

Differing from other Arctic countries who built using wood and aluminium to withstand the harsh environment, and be easier to repair, Soviet construction relied “on reinforced concrete and poor quality steel, both of which are ill-suited to very low temperatures.”34 It was not only poorly designed residential housing blocks with expansive glass walls that made these buildings inappropriate for the climate, but also the urban confi guration of many Russian Arctic cities. Neighbourhood blocks were typically built on a grid structure, “artifi cially creating wind tunnels”35 which caused problems for not only the streetscape but also shortened the lifespan of the buildings through increased climatic exposure.

Deterioration of housing quality due to poor construction, exposure to harsh environment and lack of maintenance by the state has resulted in the people of Murmansk experiencing “a high degree of spatial socio-economic injustice, refl ected, fi rst of all, in inadequate compensations to the people working and living in the extreme conditions of the Far North.”36 This is only expected to become a greater issue as climate

49

Figure 23: Collapsed industrial buildings, Murmansk.

Figure 24: Existing social problems, Murmansk.

50

change and its effects start to become more apparent in the Arctic. The thawing of the permafrost which infrastructure is built on will see ground conditions deteriorate as well as the corrosion of materials used in Soviet construction.

These levels of deterioration and diffi cult living conditions has left the Murmansk region with signifi cant levels of empty housing and ‘ghost towns’ which are found throughout the Russian Arctic.37 Abandonment of Arctic cities leaves problems of maintenance liability to others in the area, furthering the infrastructure failure, and equally as important furthering “social fragmentation: individuals who live in communities with a critical mass of vacant buildings begin to feel isolated, weakening the community as a whole.”38

“Mines and factories closed, marking an entire generation in the Arctic region with poverty and alcoholism. Many fl ee to seek a future; those who stay often don’t work, age rapidly, and die young.” 39

Social qualities are beginning to show cracks similar to the infrastructure in disconnected Arctic cities like Murmansk. Migration and closure of certain industries which are no longer economically viable following the Soviet Union’s collapse is creating these problems typical of such changes due to the lack of government support.

These problems of deterioration and decay are highlighted in the level of pollution in Murmansk, containing the most polluted waters in the region.40 Soviet relics have made the city a “dumping ground for a decrepit nuclear fl eet,”41 with vast numbers of abandoned nuclear submarines and warships, and radioactive waste stored in unprotected conditions throughout the Kola Peninsula.

37 Zalkind, Lyudmila. 2011. Housing: Price-bonanzas and emptiness. Nordregio 2.11: pp 6-938 Pereltsvaig, Asya. 2012b. The Siberian Curse: Whither Siberia? GeoCurrents. 16th May. http://www.geocurrents.info/place/russia-ukraine-and-caucasus/siberia/the-siberian-curse-whence-siberia-part-3 [28/02/2014]39 Jin, Justin. 2012. Zone of Absolute Discomfort. Justin Jin. February. http://www.justinjin.com/full-stories/arctic/ [28/02/2014]40 Northern Experiments, 2009b, op. cit.41 Cornwell, Rupert. 2000. Welcome to Murmansk, dumping ground for a decrepit nuclear fl eet. The Independent. 16th August. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/welcome-to-murmansk-dumping-ground-for-a-decrepit-nuclear-fl eet-711637.html [28/02/2014]

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Figure 26: Abandoned vessels polluting the Arctic waters.

Figure 25: Soviet era industry polluting the environment.

52

“There were people from all over serving on the icebreakers, Moscow, St. Petersburg, Ukraine. And for them it was great. You did four months at sea in the Arctic and then went home. Nut I’m from Murmansk. I’d do my four months and then I’d be stuck here where it never gets light in winter.”Andrei Zolotkov, resident of Murmansk42

The ‘fl y in and out’ migrants which have existed in Murmansk and continue to do so are having an impact on the social wellbeing of people who continue to struggle with the Arctic conditions.43 There is a feeling of inequality between native and migrant workers which has been heightened in recent times. Despite the diffi culties in living conditions for those in Murmansk and similar regions having caused many to leave, there are many who have a resilience towards completely abandoning the city. The image of the ‘hero city’ remains strong, represented as a tough, hardworking and uncompromised city.44

The Future

“The North should have shrivelled, not shrunk as the North is simultaneously over-developed with obsolete single-industry towns and under-developed with untapped natural resources.” 45

With Russia estimated to hold more than 50% of the Arctic’s undiscovered natural resources,46 it is no surprise that the country’s Arctic Strategy is focusing on these potential reserves.

In particular, developments in the Barents region, currently within Russia’s continental shelf,47 has created future prospects for development of Murmansk through the hope that the Shtokman gas fi eld and condensate

42 Oliphant, Roland. 2012. Melting of Earth’s ice enlivening Murmansk. The St. Petersburg Times. 15th August. http://sptimes.ru/index.php?action_id=2&story_id=36083 [30/12/2013]43 Laurelle, op. cit., p 6144 Northern Experiments, 2009b, op. cit.45 Rautio and Tykkylä inen, op. cit., p 4446 EY. 2013. Arctic Oil and Gas. http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/Arctic_oil_and_gas/$FILE/Arctic_oil_and_gas.pdf [28/02/2014] p 347 In 2001, Russia made a claim that the Lomonosov Ridge, which spans across the North Pole from Russia to Canada, was an extension of its continental shelf through UNCLOS. In 2002 they were recommended to carry out further research as their claim was inconclusive.

53

Figure 27: Map of Shtokman’s planned links.

54

will be operational within the near future. The Shtokman Field, northeast of Murmansk, was discovered in 1988 and is estimated to contain 3.9 trillion cubic meters of gas and 56 million tons of gas condensate, making it one of the largest in the world.48,49

Climate change and its effects on the sea ice over the past decades is giving this once inaccessible area the potential to reignite the importance of the city of Murmansk. With Shtokman poised to be “an ever-evolving, self-extending organism of pipelines, tankers, platforms, rigs, living quarters, and more,”50 Murmansk is set to inherit some positive attributes. Its positioning from the reserve and accessibility advantages as an Arctic port has seen government plans for development of the Murmansk Transport Hub as well as pipeline connections with central Russia, giving the city potential to become a major distribution hub.

Despite the apparent gains for the city due to greater interest through the effects of climate change, the probability of many of these outcomes is lower than might be expected.

“It is important to remember that hydrocarbon production in many parts of the world - especially offshore - operates as an enclave with little contribution to the local economy.” 51

Due to Russian laws, development of the Arctic’s natural resources can only currently be carried out by Gazprom and Rosneft due to the requirement that companies have to have a majority 51% state ownership.52 The very nature of this means that Murmansk is expected to have to pay taxes to Moscow for energy exploration rather than these being provided locally to improve and develop conditions within the city.53

48 Gazprom. Shtokman. http://www.gazprom.com/about/production/projects/ [28/02/2014]49 Northern Experiments, 2009b, op. cit. Projected annual output of Shtokman is “comparable to the annual gas output of Norway, one of the largest European gas suppliers.” 50 Sheppard, Lola and White, Mason. 2008. Thawing Urbanisms in the Arctic. MONU 9.08: pp 24- 31. p 2851 Brunstad, Bjorn et al. 2004. Big Oil Playground, Russian Bear Preserve or European Periphery? The Russian Barents Sea Region towards 2015. Delft: Eburon. p 5452 Baev, Pavel K. 2010. Russia’s Arctic Policy: Geopolitics, Mercantilism and Identity-Building. FIIA Briefi ng Paper, 73. http://arcticuncduke.fi les.wordpress.com/2011/11/russias-arctic-policy-geopolitics-mercantilism-and-identity-building.pdf [28/02/2014] p 453 MacKinnon, Mark. 2014. Putin aims to revive Soviet-era Arctic dominance. The Globe and Mail. 17th January. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/the-north/pole-position-putins-push-for-arctic-power/article16397304/?page=all [28/02/2014]

55

Figure 29: Prirazlomnaya oil platform, in Murmansk harbour, took over 15 years to complete.

Figure 28: Previous attempts at exploitation of energy abandoned due to economics.

56

Following the decline of the energy industry between 1992 and 1998, industrial output has been increasing in the Arctic.54 This however does not refl ect the future state of natural resource industry in Russia’s Far North. Much of this activity has been fuelled by what was “inherited from the Soviet Union” and several other developments.55 Now that the Soviet-era reserves are almost extinct, Russia is looking offshore for developments like the Shtokman fi eld. Until very recently, oil and gas industry was confi ned to onshore reserves where the infrastructure was already in place.56 Russia now needs to develop the new technology that it requires to develop its offshore reserves due to the signifi cance of energy to the country.57

With few developments in technology having taken place within the industry, most Russian companies “lack the technical ability to operate on the shelf.”58 Shtokman for example initially had a start date of 2013 which was later moved to 2016,59 and is still currently struggling to fi nd economic support from external investors to achieve what appears to be an unrealistic target. For example the fi rst Arctic off-shore oil platform, Prirazlomnaya, has taken over 15 years to fi nd the economic and technical support before being put into service only very recently in December 2013. Due to problems like these, the viability Shtokman and the other related developments appear unlikely in the near future.60

Mr Sechin, chief executive of Rosneft,61 has stated that offshore development “is more ambitious than man’s fi rst walk in space or sending the man to the moon.”62

Not only does the economic and technical issues postpone these developments, but lack of defi nite knowledge over levels of reserves

54 Gordon and Sautin, op. cit.55 Gustafson, Thane. 2012. Russian Oil Industry at a Crossroads as Infrastructure Ages. The New York Times. 4th December. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/05/business/global/russian-oil-industry-at-a-crossroads-as-infrastructure-ages.html?pagewanted=all&_r=4& [28/02/2014]56 Brunstad et al, op. cit., p 3957 Gustafson, op. cit.58 Brunstad et al, op. cit., p 4759 Offshore Technology. Shtokman Gas Condensate Deposit, Russia. http://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/shtokman/ [04/03/2014]60 Brunstad et al, op. cit., p 4161 Rosneft is a Russian oil company which is majority owned by the Government.62 Gustafson, op. cit.

57

Figure 30: Abandoned town Teriberka near Murmansk.

58

makes investment extremely risky. Russian estimates show potential for increases in overall output from these new projects,63 whereas the EIA predicts that “these new projects may only offset declining output from aging fi elds and not result in signifi cant output growth.”64,65

There are many uncertainties when trying to understand how the city of Murmansk will alter in the future. The city’s dependency on natural resources requiring new technology in order to continue extracting from existing fi elds as well as developing new fi elds, leaves the question of whether the current population’s skills can facilitate this?

Murmansk potentially no longer holds the skilled workers to enable further development.66 The level of Soviet urbanisation has left “non-productive populations”67 in the Russian Arctic and migrant workers will further the social and economic problems for the current population by taking employment away from the locals who do not have the necessary skills.68

“The rapid growth of cities often takes place in haphazard and suboptimal manner, and likewise the downsizing of northern cities and the lack of a fl exible infrastructure is not taking place neatly.” 69

Sustainable urbanisation in Murmansk appears extremely unlikely in the near future, as Russia’s Arctic policy furthers its intentions to protect and develop its natural resources as a short term priority, with it “necessary to establish the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation as a leading strategic and resource base” by 2020.70

“The Arctic is simultaneously present and forgotten. Forgotten because it is part of second-class Russia in

63 Laurelle, op. cit., p 140 64 EIA. 2013. Russia. U.S. Energy Information Administration. http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fi ps=RS [28/02/2014]65 EIA (The U.S. Energy Information Administration) collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information.66 Gustafson, op. cit.67 Round, op. cit., p 70568 Laurelle, op. cit., p 6169 Rautio and Tykkylä inen, op. cit., p 4970 Russian Government. 2008. Russia’s New Arctic Strategy - The Foundations of Russian Federation Policy in the Arctic until 2020 and Beyond. The Journal of International Security Affairs 18.1: pp 97-105. http://www.securityaffairs.org/issues/2010/18/russia%27s_new_arctic_strategy.pdf [04/03/2014] p 105

59

Figure 31: Murmansk harbour.

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terms of populations, wealth, and connection to the rest of the country, a predicament that is exacerbated by the harsh climate with which its inhabitants must contend. However, the Arctic is simultaneously presented by the political authorities as Russia’s future, especially in terms of resources. This paradox is not new and has its roots in the former Soviet paradigm of Siberia as a space that is both over- and underdeveloped.” 71

With the technical, economic and human costs of developing the city’s current population seemingly unrealistic in the short term, Murmansk and its permanent inhabitants appear set to pay the “cost of cold”72 through further hardships both economically and socially.

71 Laurelle, op. cit., p 5072 Ibid., p 61

61

Figure 32: Kiruna landscape.

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3.3 - Kiruna, Sweden

The Past

Kiruna is situated in the province of Lapland and is the most northerly city in Sweden’s territory within the Arctic Circle. This region has been inhabited for thousands of years by the Sámi natives; traditionally “characterized as arctic landscape or wilderness.”73 There was little incentive for people to inhabit such a place, especially in the developing urban drive of the last century, until the mining industry established the town of Kiruna at the end of the 19th century. Early rapid growth of the town and development originated in what has often been described as being an unplanned and unregulated manner, progressing towards “slum” like conditions.74

The change that occurred following this unfavourable development is what makes Kiruna such an important and unique mining city today, and why there is great concern with regards to how it positions itself to become a sustainable urban environment in an inhospitable region. LKAB (Luossavaara-Kiirunavaara Aktiebolag), the iron ore mining company which formed the town in 1899, still functions as the same company over a century after its establishment. It was the fi rst manager of the company, Hjalmar Lundbohm who changed the typical characteristics of a mining town environment making Kiruna the ‘model city’ which it is often referred to. His vision for the town was to create a place where those beyond the industry workers would be attracted to live, and to establish the infrastructure and cultural links with the rest of the country which enable it to thrive and develop. LKAB’s ambitious plan involved ensuring that interests beyond mining were present, ranging from education, good living conditions as well as using art, architecture and the natural landscape to create a place where people wanted to live in such a remote and harsh environment.

“The aim was to create a community which would be pleasant and well-functioning for all concerned and in which

73 Zeff, Steven. 2007. Visions for a Sustainable Future Before Relocation of an Arctic Town. http://www.stockholmresi l ience.su.se/download/18.aeea46911a31274279800082897/Zeff+NGG+07+Thesis.pdf [04/02/2014] p 974 Wang, Zhaochen. 2012. Population, Age and Employment in Kiruna. http://klarkewang.wordpress.com/critics/population-age-and-employment-in-kiruna-_-thesis-preparation/ [04/02/2014]

63

Figure 34: Projected loss of current city through Iron Ore mine developments.

Figure 33: Kiruna early settlement plan.

64

good function, architecture and the townscape would contribute to the distinctive ambience by which Kiruna is still characterised.” 75

The historical formation of this type of community, not typically associated with a mining and industry dependant environment, is what makes Kiruna so unique. Historically, this has been an important aspect for the city; having produced a community with stronger social and community ties over typical industrial settlements which has resulted in it being better equipped to deal with the issues it has faced.

The city of Kiruna has dealt with an array of problems during its existence. The nature of mining, its success and profi t, is driven through demand and equally Kiruna’s population has been directly related. Kiruna’s current population is approximately 18,000.76 However, this has fl uctuated greatly over time and most notably during both World Wars. The population decreased before an infl ux of migrant workers, required to meet the demands for iron ore, due to the enormous rebuilding of infrastructure in countries which were devastated during these periods. The population during 1950 to 1975 doubled from war time lows, reaching peaks of 25,000, as the need for workers increased. 77 During this period the town was transformed both “physically and socially.”78

The Present, Shaped in the Past

The reason for its existence is now causing great problems for Kiruna, with regards to both the population and the physical environment. Years of mining has meant that the city is now in fear of collapsing into the iron ore mine which has been dug beneath the town, and a monumental project to relocate the city is now underway. The original planning of Kiruna was carried out to accommodate the mining industry and through time the development of the mine and discovery of the extent of the iron

75 Sweden. Kiruna Kommun. 2012. A New City for Kiruna. http://www.kiruna.se/PageFiles/7191/A%20new%20city%20centre%20for%20Kiruna%20-%20competition%20brief.pdf?epslanguage=sv [04/02/2014] p 2376 Johnson, Martin. 2014. Out there: Kiruna walks the walk. RIBA Journal 121.3: p 6677 Nilson, Kristina L. 2009. Place Reinvention by Real Changed Image: The Case of Kiruna’s Spectacular Make-over. In Nyseth, T and Viken, A. (eds.). Place Reinvention: Northern Perspectives. Surrey: Ashgate Publishing Limited. p 3878 Ibid., p 38

65

Figure 35: Sketch of Kiruna being lost to the cities Iron Ore developments.

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ore and mineral wealth which it holds has meant within the next 10 to 15 years, without relocation, the city will be affected by the industry and may disappear into the mine.79 However, although this will bring signifi cant challenges, there will also be opportunities to develop and diversify the city.

“The movement of the City is an opportunity, to further diversify the economy away from mining into the growing sectors of tourism, research and space industry.” 80

As highlighted in Scieszka and Smith’s Nordic Exodus: Moving Kiruna, there is potential for Kiruna to make this an important point in its history as opposed to a dark period which saw destruction of the city. With other problems or ‘cracks’ appearing in Kiruna both physically and socially there should be both a sense of optimism as well as uncertainty.

Technological developments in iron ore mining mean that in the future there is the potential that there will be a reduced requirement for miners. Advances and investment in new technology and “more intelligent and mechanized” mining has meant that LKAB has changed from employing nearly 8,000 during the 1960’s to the current fi gure of 1,800.81

LKAB may not be the employment giant of Kiruna’s past, but it still remains as the largest sole employer today, with “extractive and manufacturing industry [being] the community’s biggest economic activity and employing nearly a quarter of the local workforce.”82

Kiruna’s population fl uctuations, in direct relation to mining, is continuing today. Although Kiruna is still dependant on the state owned mining company (LKAB), other areas of employment have become important including research and tourism.83 Despite this, earlier loss of population due to the impacts of competition with mining activities in Brazil, China and elsewhere has meant that the city has lost a signifi cant proportion of

79 Sweden. Kiruna Kommun. 2012, op. cit., pp 35 80 Scieszka, Michal and Smith, Dale. 2012. Nordic Exodus - Moving Kiruna. Glasgow: Scieszka and Smith. p 481 Wang, op. cit.82 Sweden. Kiruna Kommun. 2012, op. cit., p 3083 Zeff, op. cit., p 12

67

Figure 37: Industry infrastructure to enable export of the Iron Ore.

Figure 36: Iron Ore industry in Kiruna.

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its young population.84 Lack of opportunities and higher education has resulted in a large percentage of the population between the age of 20 and 30 seeking movement to the larger cities in Sweden. Being a relatively small isolated city in a region, characterised by the harsh environment of the Arctic Circle, means that it is diffi cult for Kiruna to retain the younger generation which will be crucial in ensuring that the new relocation and vision for Kiruna is a sustainable one, and have the potential to be an exemplar for urbanisation within the Arctic.85

“Kiruna is located in an area whose natural resources are of very great importance both to Norrbotten and to Sweden as a whole. Kiruna is dependent on building networks both within the region and worldwide. The region’s development stands of falls by the attractiveness and sustainability of urban development.” 86

LKAB announced in 2004 that the continuation of the mining for iron ore in Kiruna would in time require central areas of the city to be relocated elsewhere to allow the mine to continue to function, with up to as much as a third of the city’s urban structure being lost.87

Kiruna and some of the most northerly parts of Sweden are home to vast quantities of mineral resources and are of vital importance to “the economic and social development of the whole of Upper Norrland and are of great consequence to the Swedish economy.”88 The signifi cance of both the mining company and the city of Kiruna to the Swedish economy has meant that the relocation of the city is of extreme importance to all associated.

Initial schemes and proposals by the mining company caused concern over suspicions that LKAB had prioritised the benefi ts and needs of the company itself.89 Due to this, it was then agreed in 2011 that an architectural competition for the design of the new city centre would be

84 Nilsson, op. cit., p 38 85 Wang, op. cit.86 Sweden. Kiruna Kommun. 2012, op. cit., p 1887 Nilsson, op. cit., p 3588 Sweden. Kiruna Kommun. 2012, op. cit., p 21 89 Zeff, op. cit., p 25

69

Figure 39: Kiruna’s Church - a building of social, architectural and historic importance.

Figure 38: Existing city housing, Kiruna.

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held in a bid to ensure similar interests of the original design of the town were included and the creation of a sustainable urban city was a priority. The winning design, “Kiruna 4-ever” by White Architecture was chosen to fulfi ll the cities desire which was outlined in the opening pages of the competition brief:

“New Kiruna is to be built for a diversity of people. Those already living here must feel at home, those who have moved away must feel motivated for returning, and new residents must feel welcome. New Kiruna must create the prerequisites for a prosperous, expansive economy in which climate and the unique natural setting are a positive asset.” 90

Kiruna municipality has high ambitions for the relocation of its city. Much more than simply facilitating the continuation of the mining industry, but for a sustainable future for the city. The issue of sustainability is one which has caused concern regarding the changes about to be placed on it.

Sustainability is defi ned as “development which meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs,”91 in a report by the World Commission on Environment and Development and is widely accepted as most the acceptable defi nition.

This is a view which many of the citizens of Kiruna are focusing on in terms of how the city develops and repositions itself as a certain type of city to facilitate growth and prosperity into the future after the iron ore is gone. The general city wide understanding that Kiruna requires to be sustainable, in order to ensure its existence into the future, is causing concern about whether or the not the best interests are being prioritised. The state run status of the company LKAB, which is funding the relocation, adds further complications to the situation as the government aims to try and satisfy the local residents, as well as ensuring that the mining continues to provide economic gains.

Downing’s report on “Avoiding New Poverty: Mining-Induced Displacement

90 Sweden. Kiruna Kommun. 2012, op. cit., p 491 WCED, op. cit., p15

71

Figure 40: Kiruna’s deformed landscape, caused through Iron Ore mining.

72

and Resettlement” introduces some of the risks of sustainability which are highlighted in the World Bank Group’s policy on involuntary resettlement:

“Bank experience indicates that involuntary resettlement under development projects, if unmitigated, often gives rise to severe economic, social, and environmental risks: production systems are dismantled; people face impoverishment when their productive assets or income sources are lost; people are relocated to environments where their productive skills may be less applicable and the competition for resources greater; community institutions and social networks are weakened; kin groups are dispersed; and cultural identity, traditional authority, and the potential for mutual help are diminished or lost.” 92

The relocation of the centre of Kiruna goes far beyond that of the functional and economic complications it faces. This vision of a “deformed Kiruna”93 both depicts that of the landscape which has been affected by the industry but equally as important, the social and cultural identity of the city which is being put under extreme pressure. The importance of retaining the community aspect of Kiruna into the future is crucial as it has been a driver of its success as a city to date, without which it has the potential to become another generic industrial city leaving the citizens with little sense of place or community. The role of the state owned mining company (LKAB) has existed in that form since the towns foundation and now appears to be one of the largest concerns in terms of the sustainability of Kiruna. With such change occurring, the fear of the mining organisation becoming selfi sh in its desires and ambitions is becoming a worry. The competition from other mining countries and the pressure of the Swedish economy’s reliance on the industry,94 is meaning potentially profi t driven decisions relating to the whole city are being made. The state run status of the organisation means that external pressures exist and control from the political centres of the country are becoming a concern locally.

92 World Bank. 2001. Operational Policy Involuntary Resettlement Policy 4.12. Washington D.C. web.worldbank.org [04/03/2014]93 Nilsson, op. cit., p 4194 Zeff, op. cit., p 43

73

Figure 41: Memorial to railroad workers who helped establish the mining city.

74

“Centralized institutions frequently lack the necessary multiscale outlook and associated fl exibility to solve unusual problems or those that occur at scales that they are not used to considering. The higher levels of centralized government are typically based in the capital city, and the decision makers with the most power are often unaware of the true situation “on the ground” in each of the localities under their administration.” 95

Kiruna and its dependence historically on the mining industry has changed, and although LKAB still provides a signifi cant proportion of employment to the city, other areas of economic opportunity are becoming apparent, including space travel and research and various levels of tourism.

Despite the obvious importance of the mining to Kiruna, surprisingly, the space and research industry has also historically been important to the city and now more than ever has the potential to add another layer to the cities varied economic reliance. Having been established in 1966,96 the spaceport is now tied with Virgin Galactic’s new space research, with Kiruna already having vast experience, infrastructure and knowledge in place to facilitate the project.97

Even without any presence on the Northern Sea Route or the lure of energy resources like others, the country still has a strong agenda for dealing with its Arctic territory. In particular, regarding that of sustainable economic, social and environmental developments.98 With country wide advantages and disadvantages from potential change in the Arctic, Sweden’s status as a leader in Arctic research and development gives it potential to foresee and infl uence how developments are made in such an important region of the world.99

95 Cumming, G.S. et al. 2006. Scale Mismatches in Social-Ecological Systems: Causes, Consequences and Solutions. Ecology and Society 11, 1:14. http://www.ibcperu.org/doc/isis/8589.pdf [05/02/2014] p 896 During the early 1960’s, studies of the atmosphere in the Arctic region meant a series of rocket launch campaigns were completed. Following this, the spaceport was established by the European Space Agency to facilitate the Swedish Institute of Space Physics to carry out further research and space launches.97 Virgin Galactic. 2008. Plans for Spaceport Sweden - Spaceport Sweden and Virgin Galactic progress plans for space journeys.98 Sweden, Ministry for Foreign Affairs. 2011. Sweden’s strategy for the Arctic Region. Sweden: XGS. www.government.se/content/1/c6/16/78/59/3baa039d.pdf [04/03/2014] p 3799 Ibid., p 17

75

Figure 43: Visualisation of Kiruna’s new city.

Figure 42: Winning proposal for relocation of Kiruna.

76

With the variety in Kiruna’s industries being an important driver for sustainable development, Kiruna Kommun, the local government, has the controlling role in ensuring the relocation of the city ensures these varied interests are retained. However, local and national governments can have differing perspectives on where the best interests of Kiruna lie.

“It’s always been a little bit of a Stockholm perspective. They see the big city problems rather than the conditions of this part of the country, especially a small industrial town of Kiruna.”Thomas Nylund, Kiruna Krommun (Local Government Planner)100

Amongst the potential opportunities for Kiruna’s urbanisation within the Arctic Circle, during a period of current and future interest in this region for its natural resources, future wildcard developments such as the privatisation of the mining industry is one which would signifi cantly affect the city, necessitating the requirement that the relocation serves the wider interests.101 Fear of the loss of its ‘model city’ characteristics based on an integrated community to becoming another industry town “adopting a so-called oil platform strategy with fl y-in, fl y-out employees”102 leaves concern over the viability of a sustainable future for Kiruna, as well as other industrially reliant Arctic cities.

The Future

Kiruna faces an enormous challenge as it prepares for a new chapter in the city’s history. The future vision of the city and extent of the urban transformation has several potential outcomes which depends on local, national and worldwide factors as the Arctic becomes of increasing signifi cance and interest. The relocation has provided the opportunity to create a sustainable Arctic city which will take advantage of the changing landscape of the Arctic Circle. With depictions of the city including images of “the dark mining Kiruna, the space age Kiruna, the deformed

100 Zeff, op. cit., p 38101 Ibid., pp 45. Privatisation trends of natural resource industries already exist, meaning the threat of this for Kiruna is a real possibility.102 Ibid., p 44103 Nilsson, op. cit., p 38

77

Figure 45: Snaking formation of Erskine’s un-built masterplan (Ortdrivaren Housing circled).

Figure 44: Ortdrivaren Housing, Ralph Erskine.

78

Kiruna and new Kiruna,”103 the question remains whether or not this city, overshadowed by its mining industry and continuing destruction of the landscape, can make way for a sustainable future beyond that of the natural resources creating worldwide interest in the region.

The city is in the fortunate situation that it has the funding, primarily from the state owned mining company LKAB,104 to enable both the continuation of the mining industry and other emerging areas as well as being able provide a new urban structure for the future. With this brings both positive and negative possibilities.

Some of the key characteristics which give Kiruna its ‘model city’ status are under threat from the relocation even though some measures have been made to relocate individual buildings of importance.105 It is not only the physical aspects which have created this ‘model city,’ but also the sense of social and community well-being which these buildings represent and facilitate.

Kiruna’s urban pattern, does not follow a grid formation; instead the meandering streets and current settlement structure has largely remained the same over its existence, being “based on an intimate relationship with the landscape”106 and being structured to shield the city from receiving the full extents of the Arctic’s North-East winds. The unique urban planning is something which does not appear to be transferring to the winning design for the city.

One of the more modern developments in Kiruna is Ortdrivaren housing which is “architecturally renowned”107 and was designed by architect Ralph Erskine.108 Erskine’s writings of sub-arctic design and his philosophy of dealing with climate and the users as priority became characteristic of his

104 Sweden. Kiruna Kommun. 2013. A New City for Kiruna. www.arkitekt.se/s77151/f16040/kiruna+juryutlatande_eng_web.pdf [04/03/2014] p 25105 Sweden. Kiruna Kommun. 2012, op. cit., pp 52. Buildings are to be relocated include: Kiruna Church, the city hall clock tower, Erskine buildings, amongst others. The architectural heritage which these buildings represent, “is fundamental to the pride which Kiruna residents take in their city. This pride in the cultural heritage must be perpetuated and must also include the new buildings erected.”106 Sweden. Kiruna Kommun. 2012, op. cit., p 25107 Scieszka and Smith, op. cit., p 23108 Ortdrivaren housing was constructed in 1966.

79

Figure 46: Kiruna - Walking City.

80

work which is evident in Kiruna and elsewhere. His un-built masterplan, of which Ortdrivaren housing is part of, takes on similar principles of the already successful historic planning. The snaking blocks mimic that of the urban structure and helps create a protective edge to defl ect the impact of harsh climate to an extent, avoiding creation of inner city ‘wind tunnels.’

Today, the winning proposal for the current relocation of the city differs signifi cantly. Instead it proposes the generic grid structure, which from historical precedent and Erskine’s writings appears to ignore the Arctic climate which exists in the city. Despite the city’s aim of sustainability, it appears that the acknowledgement of both the economic sustainability, through variety in industry and employment opportunities, and that of the urban sustainability have not been given equal weighting. Despite these challenges, Kiruna appears well positioned to develop towards a sustainable city in the future.

“Kiruna will be more of a walking millipede than Ron Herron’s eight-legged procession of urbanity in the Archigram project ‘Walking City.’ It will lift one foot from the back and place it at the front. It will crawl only a few kilometers over 100 years, but will bring everyone with it. The city as artefact could be nimble and move at a whim, but a city of people must take a slower course.” 109

Kiruna’s ambitions on paper appear to ensure economic growth and relative success by creating a new city which is not solely dependent on natural resources. Instead, tourism, science, research and other incentives will attempt to ensure the city’s economic sustainability. However, the new built environment and the risk of losing it’s ‘model city’ status that has important emphasis on people and community sustainability, which appears rare in Arctic cities, could potentially be a more signifi cant and lengthy challenge than the physical relocation of the city.

109 Johnson, op. cit., p 66

81

82

This dissertation sought to establish what the ‘Future Arctic’ may look like and understand whether we are entering the ‘Age of the Arctic’ or the ‘End of the Arctic?’

At this moment in time, we have neither fully witnessed the “End of the Arctic” or the start of the “Age of the Arctic.” The Arctic is at a crucial crossroads where the decision to increase the protection of the natural environment and reduce the effects of climate change, or develop and build on the ability to support further urbanisation and search for natural resources, both economically and technologically could provide two very different futures.

“We are experiencing a revival of the 19th century vision of the ‘Arctic sublime’, of an Arctic at once beautiful and terrifying, awesome and exotic, a world apart, a romantic, last frontier offering compelling opportunities and exhilarating risks.” 1

With global pressures and environmental groups trying to prevent both the ‘End of the Arctic’, in terms of climate change and the damages caused, as well as control the ‘Age of the Arctic’ in terms of exploitation and increased urbanisation; their infl uence on such matters appears unlikely to fully prevent the Arctic countries, and their motivation, from having a greater interest the Circumpolar North.

There is little doubt that these drivers, both the environmental changes and the natural resource potential, are going to infl ict extraordinary change to this region and its people.2 Although, with long periods of stable conditions and peaceful cooperation amongst the Arctic countries being the current trend,3 it appears unlikely that we will see this competition for

ConclusionAge of the Arctic or End of the Arctic?

1 Young and Osherenki, op. cit., p 52 Brigham, Lawson W. 2007. Thinking about the Arctic’s Future: Scenarios for 2040. The Futurist 41.5 : pp 27-34. http://www.carlisle.army.mil/proteus/docs/brigham-artics-future.pdf [07/03/2014]3 Young, 2000, op. cit.

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resources in the Arctic resulting in armed confl ict, but instead could see political and economic posturing.

“More likely, however, is the image of the Arctic as a battleground, fought over not just by states but by the different economic and political interests which are jostling for their part of the Arctic future, trying either to develop its economic potential or to protect its environment. A battleground does not mean war, but it does mean confl ict and competition: political, economic, cultural and diplomatic.” 4

Even with the belief that the Arctic will not be home to armed confl ict in the near future, an increase in military presence can be expected. The desires of Arctic countries aims to assert their claim for part of the sub-sea resources and economic incentives, which are potentially available, means protection of resources, governance of shipping and a general desire to emphasise a country’s interest, will inevitably result in an increased strategic presence through military means.

With predictions of no summer Arctic sea ice by the end of this century,5 the reduction of the accessibility issue will not immediately allow for exploitation of the resources and Arctic shipping passages which are extremely desirable.

Whilst these prospects are very real, the current state of urban infrastructure and the skills of their related populations lag behind current 21st century advances required to make these developments possible. Arctic cities like Murmansk have stood still in history and remain dependant on one industry; leaving a population which appears set to have little input in these developments. Whilst cities like Kiruna, which are in the process of modernising and attempting to ensure sustainable development through widening its variety in economic reliance, also exist. The risks associated with the economic investment required for potential new developments appear for many, at present, to be too signifi cant to ensure sustainable development.6

4 Emmerson, op. cit., p 3445 Hassol, op. cit., p 306 Woodward, Katie. 2013. Russia needs investment to exploit oil and LNG. Energy Global. 20th November.http://www.energyglobal.com/news/exploration/articles/Russian_oil_and_LNG.aspx#.UxyJBrTiuUl [04/03/2014]

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Therefore, the image of vast permanent populations migrating to the Arctic and inhabiting a once sparsely populated tundra to facilitate such developments, still remains unlikely. Instead, whilst issues of ownership and economic support develops, it appears that the region will be more closely integrated into each countries policies and the rest of the world in the near future.

“The environmental state-change in the Arctic Ocean, however, is a game-changer and it is therefore imprudent to be complacent.” 7

With uncertainty about the full extent of potential levels of natural resource exploitation, shipping and tourism in the immediate future, due to the unresolved claims for the Arctic sea-bed and territory, existing urban settlements will still increase in strategic importance. Governments will set to position themselves, awaiting further developments which will make this region more attractive. As opposed to an array of cities hugging the Arctic coast line, we may in the long term set out to see the Northern developments more like that of “Nevada - an empty landscape dotted with gleaming boom towns.”8

However, before the Arctic becomes the home of such ‘gleaming’ developments; the ruins of historic urbanisation and resource exploitation in the Far North should be dealt with fi rst. Problems of dilapidated infrastructure and lack of attractive living conditions is exerting pressures on the social integrity of these already volatile communities.

Sustainable arctic development requires marrying the economic potential from the abundance of natural resources with the urban and built environment, as well as the associated social complexities. The economy provides the driver for the changes, however, it needs to be planned and controlled to provide a sustainable environment and society.

Failure to address this means “we could end up with the worst of all

7 Berkman, Paul A. 2010. Environmental Security in the Arctic Ocean - Promoting Co-operation and Preventing Confl ict. Oxford: Routledge Journals. p 48 Smith, Laurence C. 2010. Unfreezing Arctic Assets. Wall Street Journal. 18th September. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052748703440604575496261529207620 [30/12/2013]

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Figure 47: Futuristic visualisation of a ‘gleaming’ Arctic city.

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possible worlds: neither a new Arctic nor an old Arctic, but an Arctic wasteland.”9

With the complications of climate change, future potential developments, individual national policies or the signifi cance of the Arctic to each associated country; it is diffi cult to accurately predict what the ‘Future Arctic’ will look like and make solid predictions about how it will develop. This is in part due to the fact that the Arctic is unique and that “the new Arctic Ocean is unprecedented.”10

Despite a widespread common perception that the Arctic is a pristine landscape, where native indigenous people are the main population, the Arctic is instead a landscape that has been occupied, albeit sparsely, by a degree of global population, infrastructure and southern cultures, which is likely to continue to be developed in those that have already been established.

“Today, there are Nigerians moving to Fort McMurray, Iraqis to Stockholm, Filipinos to Yellowknife, and Azerbaijanis to Noril’sk. There are growing cities, guest-worker programs, and multinational corporations. As I drove across the Arctic Circle in my rental car, just a few hours north of Fairbanks, it was with a Starbucks Venti latte still clutched in my hand. The latest invasions have begun.” 11

9 Anderson, 2009b, op. cit., p 60 10 Berkman, op. cit., p 111 Smith, op. cit., p 175

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