Steven Chu Keynote at the ANU Energy Update 2014
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Transcript of Steven Chu Keynote at the ANU Energy Update 2014
ANU Energy Update 2014 Canberra, Australia
8 December, 2014
The Energy and Climate Challenges
“Our ability to find and extract fossil fuels continues
to improve, and economically recoverable reservoirs
around the world are likely to keep pace with the
rising demand for decades.”
Steven Chu and Arun Majumdar, Nature (2012)
Will we run out of oil and natural gas?
U.S. Oil Production (1945 – 2012)
2013: 7.5 M bbls/day
U.S. oil production from tight oil is ~ 4.5 M bbls/day
The increase in oil production, ~ 4.5 M bbls/day, is more than the oil production of all countries except Saudi Arabia, U.S. and Russia
2014: 8.5 M bbls/day
~ 70% of the total world oil reserves is heavy, extra-heavy, oil sands and bitumen
≤ 22.3°API
≤ 10°API
Brent, WTI 38° - 40°API
Steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) Estimated recovery 50% - 60%
Can a mixture of steam and CO2 allow lower temperatures to decrease energy use and increase oil production?
The estimated reserves of all deposits in western Canada and eastern Venezuela is ~ 5.3 trillion barrels.
7
ICE Price of Brent Crude Oil
Where oil prices be in the next 4 – 20 years?
Saudi Arabia was no longer willing to cut produc=on to keep the price of oil at $100/bbl.
100
60
80
120
8
Natural Gas
Actual Forecast
85 Bcfd in 2013
ARPA-E
ARPA-E Hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling
Typical depth: few thousand
meters
Storage of flow-back (waste) water
Fresh water tables protected by
cemented casings
Fractures caused by hydraulic pressure
propants– (e.g. sand) keep micro-cracks open
ARPA-E EIA estimates of technically recoverable shale gas (tcf)*
* Russia, Central Asia, Middle East, south East Asia and central Africa not included
The rest of the world may have 10x more tight oil and shale gas than the U.S.
ARPA-E
• Changes in oil and gas production due to hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling
• Environmental and safety issues
ARPA-E
Barnett Shale formation fracture treatments (2001 – 2010)
water table depth
Dep
ths
(ft.)
Spikes are the extent of fracture growth
ARPA-E
• Cheniere’s LNG Project ≤ 6 LNG trains @ 4.5 million tonnes/train/yr
= 27 M tonnes/yr = 1.3 x 1012 ft3/yr = 3.6 Bcfd = ~ 4% of current U.S. production
• 3 LNG storage tanks ~ 10.1 x 109 ft3 equivalent
• 2 berths for vessels with capacity ~267,000 cubic meters.
• EPC contract estimate for 3 trains ~$11 B (excluding financing costs) • Project waiting for final EPA – CEQ statement and FERC ruling
Potential shale gas and tight oil reservoirs can change the energy landscape of the Americas, Asia and Europe.
The rest of the world may have 10 =mes more =ght oil and shale gas than the U.S.
© 2013 Munich Re
NatCatSERVICE Weather-related loss events worldwide 1980 – 2013 Number of events
Meteorological events (Tropical storm, extra-‐tropical storm, convec6ve storm, local storm)
Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement)
Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)
200
400
600
800
1 000
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Number
© 2014 Münchener Rückversicherungs-‐GesellschaJ, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at February 2014
88% of World-wide losses were weather related
19
Canning
20
“The Stone Age came to an end not for a lack of stones and the oil age will end, but not for a lack of oil.”
-‐ Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani, former Saudi Oil Minister
We transitioned to better solutions.
If we do not find better solutions, the oil, gas and coal will be used.
The full cost of coal, oil natural gas is not included in the price
Harbin, China
24
Relative Safety of Energy Sources For each death associated with nuclear energy, there are
4000 coal-related deaths (161 deaths/TWh) and 900 oil-related deaths. Future deaths due to climate change are not included
4000X more coal-‐related deaths than nuclear power per unit of energy produced
25
“2014 on course to be one of hottest, possibly hottest, on record …14 of the 15 warmest years have all occurred in the 21st century”
26
3.2 mm/year rise in sea level (satellite data, Jan 1993 – Aug 2014)
27
Rate of sea level rise Jan 1993 – Aug 2014
3.2 mm/year
Recent rate of sea level rise compared to historical record
25 year delay aRer the onset of smoking
Smoking increases the risk of • Lung cancer: 25x • Coronary heart disease: 2x - 4x • Stroke: 2x – 4x
25 year delay aRer the onset of smoking
The damage already done to our environment may not be known for a century.
How long will CO2 remain in the atmosphere?
“The Stone Age came to an end not for a lack of stones and the oil age will end, but not for a lack of oil.”
-‐ Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani, former Saudi Oil Minister
We transitioned to better solutions.
U.S. to cut CO2 by 26 -28% by 2025 from 2005 levels
States with Renewable Portfolio Standards (mandatory) or Goals (voluntary) in 2012
78% of the total U.S. economy has mandatory standards. 86% has either standards or goals.
33
1. The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that CO2 and other Greenhouse gases are pollutants.
2. The Clean Air Act will be used by EPA to control these pollutants.
• Utility companies realize they will have to control carbon emissions. They need a stable policy so they can make future investment choices.
• Most major multinational oil companies carry an internal price on carbon to guide future investment decisions.
34
Energy efficiency
Clean energy sources
How science and technology is giving us better solutions.
35
Renewable energy be more expensive than fossil fuels for at least a few
decades.
Energy Quiz (True or False)
36
Signed PPAs (Power Purchase Agreements) for wind in 2012$
Addi=onal 20% -‐30% decrease is expected
$30/MWh
In the U.S. we have a wind production tax credit
West
Interior
Cost of PV modules are dropping below the power law experience curve SunShot goal $1/watt = L.C.O.E. 6.5¢/kWh
37
Solar module produc=on costs are currently ~ $0.50/waX for 20 – 21% efficient mono-‐silicon
Over 40 years, the price of solar modules has declined 40x.
Cumula6ve Produc6on Volume (MWs)
38
Cryst. Si : 19 % è 22 % efficiency è lower cost? Poly-Si : 14 % è 16.5 % è ? CdTe: 12 % è14.5 % è ? GaAs: 26% efficient èlow cost ?
Multiple Junction PV, CIGS, Gretzel cell, Perovskites with Si ... ?
The Department of Energy is agnostic to any particular solar technologies:
Progress in Perovskite PV (Si-‐ Perovskite tandem cells could be over 30% eff.
United States Solar Electricity Generation 1985 – 2013
My time as U.S. Secretary
of Energy
45
“Unlike physics, where we can fundamentally figure out the upper limit for the efficiency of solar cells, there is no such limit to bureaucracy."
Minh Le Program Manager SunShot
Soft costs
46
Residen6al PV in Germany costs ~$2/W Residen6al PV in the US costs ~$4 -‐ $4.50/W
DOE solar energy goal for utility L.C.O.E. is $65/MWh. This corresponds to ~ $1 /watt of generating capacity.
Our goal for residential installations is $1.50/watt.
48
$50/MWh
$70/MWh
U.S. Levelized Cost of NEW Electricity in 2015 (2010$) with/without incentives and CO2 costs
Natural gas
Onshore wind
Large solar PV
Nuclear
Pulverized Coal
Solar thermal
Efficiency
Geothermal
Coal IGCC
Biomass
Coal IGCC-‐CCS
At $4/MM Btu
49
U.S. Energy Informa6on Administra6on (EIA) of the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) for 2016.
(2012 actual costs in green) 2022 (?) projected costs in magneta (no storage)
50
Energy Quiz (True or False)
A reliable electrical grid cannot tolerate more than 5 - 10% intermittent renewable energy.
In 2013, Hawaiian Electric Co. (HECO) claimed the grid could not sustain more that 3% - 4% solar power. The intermittent power
would threaten reliability and safety.
FALSE
51
In 2013, fraction of total electricity generated by renewable energy Germany 30% (20% wind and solar), Denmark 33%
Spain 25%, Ireland 20%, … 14 countries has >25% of electricity generated by renewables
Spain's largest wind turbine, Arinaga, a five megawap, 505-‐foot tall at the Spanish
archipelago of the Canary Islands Countries with very liXle hydropower 100 %
80
40
20
0
Careful planning is needed to op6mize the lowest-‐cost solu6on
52
Lowest cost solutions when renewable energy becomes > 30% of total energy will require
(1) Long distance Transmission,
(2) Load-management, (3) Automatic control of two-way energy flows, (4) Energy storage
(5) Stand-by generating capacity.
It is far easier to meet energy demands using coal, natural gas and hydropower than to manage renewable energy. U6lity operators will take the easy (and safe) op6on, rather than find a lower cost op6on that requires more thinking.
Regulators have to know about existence proofs of (deployed) state-of-the-art technology.
53
Why aren’t utility companies focused on transitioning to the low-cost option?
Use of “energy-on-demand” energy sources does not require technical innovation. Most utility companies move at glacial speed in the adoption of new technologies.
This comparison maybe unfair to glaciers. With climate change, some glaciers are moving faster than utility companies.
54
Energy Quiz (True or False)
Electric vehicles will never be cost competitive because of the high cost of batteries.
FALSE
The Rolls-Royce Silver Ghost cost = £1500 ( up to ten years wages for a professional)
6-cylinder, 7 liter, 3-speed transmission, 48hp 50 mph, 20+ mpg In a reliability trial the car broke all records completing a 24,000 km test run.
The Model T Ford transformed transportation by making it affordable to many Americans
Henry Ford
DOE’s “EV Everywhere set goals for battery cost, energy density, durability.
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
2008 2010 2011 2012 2015 2018 2022
BaXery Cost vs Year $/kWh
Target
Target
57
~ $500/kWh $1,000 kWh $160/kWh for
autos, $100/kWh for u=lity-‐scale storage ?
58
Bloomberg New Energy Finance: Total cost of lithium ion battery packs for EVs and PHEVs
Tesla Giga Factory baXery pack cost?
59
Learning Curve for Electric Vehicle Lithium Ion Batteries
Projec=on of cumula=ve produc=on by 2020
$1,000/kW and $160/kWh
10,000 cycles (30 years)
61
Tesla battery uses 200 Wh/kg batteries. 85 kWh = 425 kg, excluding packaging and cooling.
Prof. Yi Cui and I are working on a lithium metal -‐ sulfur bapery that may increase the energy density 4x and the charging rate 8x.
The cost of solar modules declined 6-fold in the past ~6 years. Full installation costs in are ~$5.50/watt;
Germany ~$2.50/watt.
63
This technology could be as disruptive to electricity generation and distribution as the internet was to
publishing and entertainment
The cost of home solar energy will likely achieve the DOE goal of $2/watt and utility scale cost of $1/watt.
(L.C.O.E. ~ 6.5¢/kWh)
Battery storage of a ~ 6 kWh system may be ~$1,200 in a decade, and the total installed 6 kW/6kWh
system cost could be < $15,000.
64
A proposed solution to align utilities company incentives with deployment of solar energy:
Offer customers roof-top electricity & in-home energy storage owned, installed and maintained by the utility company.
• Home owners get low electricity rates and ~ 10 kWh of local storage (> 1 week of blackout resistance).
• Distribution companies get indoor energy storage at the ends of their distribution network.
65
Summer - Winter energy storage • Transmission of solar energy from North Africa
and the Middle East may be possible, but energy security is an issue.
• Chemical energy storage: e.g. use excess night time electricity to split water into H2 and O2 and combine with CO2 to form liquid hydrocarbons that can be shipped anywhere in the world
Earthrise from Apollo 8 (December 24, 1968)
"We came all this way to explore the moon and the most important thing is that we discovered the Earth.”
Bill Anders, Apollo 8 Astronaut 66