Steve Koonin

8/14/2019 Steve Koonin

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Steven E. KooninUnder Secretary for ScienceDepartment of EnergyJanuary 2010

Sustainability Solutions:

Fixing the Unbalanced Agenda


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Theses

Global development and population growthwill place unprecedented stress on resources(Sustainability)

These same factors will have a profoundinfluence on US domestic and globalcircumstances (sustainability)

214 January 2010

Navigating these changes will be themajor task of the next decades


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Outline

Global drivers

Energy Sustainability

Food and Water Sustainability

sustainability

314 January 2010


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Global drivers


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Energy consumption has increasedwith development

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

PrimaryEnergypercapita

(GJ)

GDP per capita (PPP, $2000)

514 January 2010

Source: UN and DOE EIA, Russia data 1992-2004 only

US

Australia

Russia

Brazil

China

India

S. Korea

Mexico

Ireland

Greece

France

UKJapan

Malaysia

Energy demand and GDP per capita (1980-2004)


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Calories increase with GDP

614 January 2010


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As does meat consumption

714 January 2010


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Calories increase with time

814 January 2010Source: FAO report, Diet, Nutrition and the Prevention of Chronic Diseases , 2003

Calorie

s

Year

World

Developing

countries

Industrializedcountries

Transitioncountries


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Population growth a second driver

World population to 2050 - UN data

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

millions

Africa OceaniaAsia EuropeLatin America and Caribbean Northern America

914 January 2010


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US= 4% people and ~20% consumption

1014 January 2010Source: CIA World Factbook 2008

Percentage of US to World

Impacts bothglobal resources

and US position


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Global sustainability math

US per capita consumption

= 0.2 Current / 0.3 B people

= 0.7 CPB (Current per Billion)

If todays 7B consumed at the US per capitarate, 0.7 CBP * 7 B ~ 5x current resource use

2050s 9 billion would consume ~ 6x Current

Using the EU as a benchmark reduces thesenumbers by about 30%

1114 January 2010


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Thomas Malthus (1789)

The perpetual tendency of the race of man to

increase beyond the means of subsistence is

one of the general laws of animated nature,which we can have no reason to expect tochange.

1214 November 2009

Is it different this time?


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Possible resolutions

Decouple development and consumption(conservation, enabled by policy andtechnology)

Find new or substitute resources

Reset expectations and restrain development

Slower, but smarter, development

Greater wisdom in infrastructure rebuild, behavior

1314 January 2010

Non-exclusive alternatives.

Outcome depends upon economy, policy, technology


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Energy Sustainability


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472

508552

596637

678

51%

49%

41%

59%

Q

uadrillionB

tu

Non-OECD countries account for 82% of the

44% increase in global energy use to 2030

Increase in global energy use

1514 January 2010Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2009, Reference Case


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California energy per capitais unchanged since ~1990

1614 January 2010

Energy/personGDP/person

Source: EIA State Energy Data Report, 2007

MillionBtu/person

$th

ousand/pers

on


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Fossil fuels dominate theworlds energy supply today

1714 January 2010

Liquids (including biofuels)

Natural gas

Coal

Renewables (excluding biofuels)

Nuclear

History Projections

36%

23%

27%

8%

6%

32%

28%

11%

23%

6%

Share of world total

Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2009, Reference Case

QuadrillionB

tu


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Substantial global fossilreserves

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Oil Gas Coal

R/P Ratio41 yrs.

R/P Ratio67 yrs.

R/P Ratio164 yrs.

Proven Proven

Proven

Yet to FindYet to Find

Yet to Find

Source: World Energy Assessment 2001, HIS, WoodMackenzie, BP Stat Review 2005, BP estimates

Unconventional

Unconventional

Reserves&Resources(bnboe)

14 January 2010 18


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Nuclear power increase

1914 November 2009

China and India account for 48% of the

world increase in nuclear power

115 121

132132

121

6774

88

42

49

71

20 23

127

54

22

7 93

1510

0

60

120

180

2006 2015 2030

Gigawatts

North America OECD EuropeOECD Asia Non-OECD Europe/EurasiaChina IndiaRest of World


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Wind and water power

2014 November 2009

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2006 2015 2030 2006 2015 2030

TrillionKilowatth

ours

OECD Non-OECD

Hydroelectric

Wind

Other Renewables

1.6

2.2

2.9

1.8

2.7

3.8

Hydropower supplies 54% of the world

increase in renewable generation; windprovides 33%



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Global energy challenges resultfrom significant imbalances

Energy poverty

Imbalance in energy access

Energy security Imbalance in geographic distribution of resources

Greenhouse gas emissions

Anthropogenic perturbation of the carbon cycle

2114 January 2010


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Distribution of crude reserves

2214 January 2010

Source: Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production, Oil & Gas Journal,Vol. 105, No. 48 (December 22, 2008), pp. 20-23.

Oil is a global market, OPEC is 40% of global supply,

and reserves are geographically concentrated

746

117

123

99

34

14

210

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Europe

Asia

Eurasia

Central & South America

Africa

North America

Middle East

Billion Barrels


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GHG emissions continue to grow

2314 January 2010


Absent new policies, global energy-related CO2emissions grow 39% by 2030in EIAs reference case

Billionmetric

tons

2931

3335

3840

47%

53%

36%

64%


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US anthropogenic GHG emissions areabout energy

2414 January 2010

Source: EIA Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 2007

Over 80% of US greenhouse gasemissions in 2007 were energy-related


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Water and FoodSustainability


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Water Sustainability

Demand for water will increase Agriculture, energy

Household use in developed countries 6Xdeveloping countries

Exacerbated by climate change

There is plenty of water Quality, timing, geographical dislocation concern

Depletion of stored water (aquifers) Water is not a global commodity like oil/gas

No global market, long distance transport

2614 January 2010


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Global water resources

2714 January 2010


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What is water used for?

2814 January 2010


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Runoff change to 2050

2914 January 2010


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Food Sustainability

Demand rising with development

Increase in quality with development

(crops to animal protein)

Can we grow enough food?

3014 January 2010

Forest &

Savannah

Cereal

4.6% Pasture & Range

23.7%

30.5%

Other crops6.9%

Nonarable

34.4%


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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

MillionTons

Source: FAO

World Animal Protein Production, 1961-2007

Pork

Poultry

Beef

Farmed Fish

Sheep and Goats

Animal protein production rising

3114 November 2009


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Economics explains some choices

3214 January 2010

Sources of $200B global annual agriculture revenue

$104B annual revenue


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Food yield changes to 2050

3314 January 2010


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Energy/water/food nexus issensitive to climate

Water for power production

Power to move water

Food and biofuels/biomass

Energy, water for agriculture Agriculture and land use

(deforestation)

Climate change and

agriculture/water

3414 January 2010

Source: Peter Gleick, Worlds Water2002-2003

Globally, more water is used forfood and electricity production thanis used directly


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Water-food interactions

3514 January 2010


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Global resource Sustainability

There is (or can be) enough to meet demand Economic, policy, social factors intertwine

Technology can help, but not sufficient

Graceful supply curves are a help

Conservation, new resources, substitution Best policies are not always obvious

Systems effects, diverse interests

Informed and educated populace/decision makers

essential Trends are slow to develop, long to fix

3614 January 2010


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3714 January 2010

Source: EIA

US energy supply since 1850

0%10%

20%

30%

40%

50%60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000

Renewables

Nuclear

GasOil

Hydro

Coal

Wood

Energy change is slow without deliberateacceleration


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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000

Renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Hydro

Coal

Wood

IT moves much faster than energy

Sales of Personal Audio/Video since 2000

14 January 2010 38


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Because energy innovation is different

Energy Frontier Research Centers Find solutions to fundamental scientific roadblocks to clean

energy and energy security

Innovation HUBS Create sustained, tightly focused research centers with

contributors from academia and industry

REgaining our ENERGY Science and Engineering Edge(ReENERGYSE) proposal Energy scientists (technology and policy)

Clean energy workers

ARPA-E Develop and deploy breakthrough energy technologies

Coordination among many Federal/State agencies

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High risk, transformational research

Workforce training

Underlying science

Academia/government/industry partnerships


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High-leverage technologies that cancontribute to useful change

Biology/biotech Esp plant, microbial

Materials science

Simulation, synthesis,

characterization

Data & understanding

Physical, societal

Diagnosis, management,

prediction

4014 January 2010

Average Indiana corn yielddramatically increased


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sustainability


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The worlds GDP is unbalanced

4214 January 2010

Source: CIA World Factbook, population 2009 est, 2008 US dollars

Contributions from 4 selected areas

USEU

ChinaIndia


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Compared to the US/EU

4314 January 2010

USEU

ChinaIndia

the rest of the world is

Younger

Hungrier

Morenumerous

Developing

faster

Source: CIA World Factbook, population 2009 est, 2008 US dollars


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Nature abhors imbalance

4414 January 2010

Its the Second Law of Thermodynamics:

Sooner or later everything turns to ****Woody Allen, Husbands and Wives(1992)

Relaxation can be slowed, but greater imbalance impliesstronger driving force and more rapid/disruptive changes

sustainability is about managing imbalances and theirrelaxation


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Global equilibration

In a global world with free flow of people,goods, resources, and capital

US position of privilege difficult to sustain

Shifts in US economic, cultural, geopolitical heft

How will the US respond?

Fortress America?

Accept a position proportional to population orGDP?

Capitalize on differential advantages to realizesustainability

4514 November 2009


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Trends in US manufacturing

4614 January 2010


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US manufacturing jobs

4714 November 2009


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4814 January 2010

Worldwide shipments of Solar Photovoltaics (MW)

The situation issimilar in otherareas:

Fuel-efficientautomobiles

Batteries

ElectricityTransmission

Power Electronics

Nuclear Power

Can we better link US innovation witheconomic sustainability?


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The US in a global context Some US differential advantages

Attraction of the American idea

Rule of law

Vibrant innovation system

Free flow of capital

Protection of IP Higher Education

Infrastructure in US is built, developing world is building DW is newer, more efficient

US infrastructure needs to be rebuilt Skills and capabilities better represented abroad

Implications for immigration, labor, education policy

US must work to regain favor as a manufacturing venue

4914 January 2010


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Recap

Global development and population growth will placeunprecedented stress on resources (Sustainability)

These same factors will have a profound influence onUS domestic and global circumstances (sustainability)

Complex issues without easy or obvious solutions Must begin frank conversation, be aware of where were headed,

and the understand the implications of the decisions we make

5014 January 2010

Navigating these changes will be themajor task of the next decades


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Questions?/Comments?

Steve Koonin

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