Status Report:NOAA’s Arctic Goals for IPY & Beyond

John Calder and Kathleen CraneArctic Research Program, CPOOffice of Oceanic and Atmospheric ResearchNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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State of the Arctic Report

Current Activities

NOAA’s Contributions to IPY

Value to Society

State of the Arctic Report

SOA Table of Contents• Atmosphere

– Circulation– Surface temperatures– Forcing of changes

• Ocean– Circulation– Heat and freshwater content– Sea level

• Sea Ice Cover– Extent and thickness– Surface conditions

• Land– Vegetation– Water and ice– permafrost

Next SOA Topics

• Atmosphere• Ocean• Sea ice• Land• Greenland ice sheet• BiologyA new format will be used - a simple “report card”

with back-up science papers.

Arctic Climate Observations

• The SOA report reinforces that the Arctic has to be considered as a system

• The Arctic Research Program from its inception has included ocean, ice, atmosphere and marine ecology as its main elements and continues to work in this way

Current Activities

• Arctic Atmospheric Observing Network• Arctic Change Detection and System

Analysis• RUSALCA• North Pacific Climate Regimes and

Ecosystem Productivity • Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Observing

Network

Tiksi, Russia

Alert, Canada

Barrow, Alaska

Eureka, Canada

Summit, Greenland

Ny-Alesund, Svalbard

International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere

Science Goals

• Provide multi-decadal cloud, radiation, aerosol, meteorological and flux data

• Use observations to understand atmospheric and surface processes at regional scale

• Apply data to improve model parameterizations• Support calibration, algorithm development and

validation for satellite observations• Serve as logistics base for diverse science

observations, e.g., permafrost borehole, etc

RUSALCA

USA RUSSIA• Observations where

Arctic sea ice is reducing rapidly

• Bering St. fresh water, nutrient fluxes

• Regional physics and ecosystem response to change.

• Improve international Arctic science collaboration

• Explore the unknown Arctic with OE

Russian American Long-term Census of the Arctic

RUSALCA Goals:

A RUSALCA Goal: Gateway Fluxes via Long-term Moorings in Bering Strait

NOAA, NSF, RASwill install 8MooringsAcross theBering Strait in2007

ACW

BSWAW

SSW

Demersal fish distributionDemersal fish distribution

• Fish community correlates reasonably well with water masses

• Fish community also correlates positively with substrate type

Bottom Water Masses

CF

SCCF

WCF

NCF

CF = Coastal FishSCCF = South-Central Chukchi FishWCF = Western Chukchi FishNCF = Northern Chukchi Fish

Climate Change Scenarios in Eastern Chukchi SeaClimate Change Scenarios in Eastern Chukchi Sea

Increase in ACW conditions (fresher, warmer, less productive)

• Less infauna, reduction of biomass hotspot

• Probably unchanged epifauna ?

• Re-distribution of fishes (expansion of south-central Chukchi fish)

• Invasion of invertebrates and fishes from Bering Sea

• Longer food chains (less tight benthic-pelagic coupling)

Walleye PollockTheragra chalcogramma

Found Further North

RUSALCA

North Pacific Climate Regimes & Ecosystem Productivity

Partnerships for Sustained Observations

Arctic Observing Network

• Interagency, international effort to observe over decades, changes in the environment in the Arctic to provide stakeholders with climate, weather, research and resource information critical for the global society.

Goal: ContributeTo the designOf an ArcticObserving NetworkBased on the SEARCHImplementation Plan and Existing Operational Networks

Developing International Science Partnerships

• IPY

• Arctic Regional GOOS

• Arctic Observing Network (AON) and its developing international counterpart

• Arctic GEOSS

NOAA Arctic Research:Coordination

InternationalInteragency

Intragency

AON/GOOS/GEOSS

International Polar Year

International Polar Year: Exploration-Observations

RUSALCA: Exploration of Marine Life in the Pacific-Arctic: What lives in this part of the Arctic Ocean? How will it migrate due to climate change?

International Polar Year: Arctic Observations

• Causes and Impacts of Recent Changes in the Pacific Arctic (RUSALCA)

• Polar Atmospheric Observatories and Field Campaigns (IASOA)

• Polar Stratospheric Ozone Depletion Observations

• Autonomous under-ice systems testing (AGAVE expedition, methane fluxes from the seafloor)

• Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)

International Polar Year: Observations

• Causes and Impacts of Recent Changes in the Pacific Arctic (RUSALCA)

• Polar Atmospheric Observatories and Field Campaigns (IASOA)

• Polar Stratospheric Ozone Depletion Observations

• Autonomous under-ice vehicles (AGAVE expedition, methane sensing)

• Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)

International Polar Year: Observations

• Causes and Impacts of Recent Changes in the Pacific Arctic (RUSALCA)

• Polar Atmospheric Observatories and Field Campaigns (IASOA)

• Polar Stratospheric Ozone Depletion Observations

• Autonomous under-ice vehicles (AGAVE expedition, methane detection)

• Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)

A UAS base would address the Arctic’s unique environmental threats.

International Polar Year:Prediction & Modeling

• Short-term Arctic Predictability (STAP): THORPEX

• Advances in Satellite Products and their Use in Numerical Weather Prediction

• Arctic Climate Modeling:

International Polar Year: Data, Outreach & Decision Support

•NOAA’s Data, Information, and Change Detection•Regional Integrated Science and Assessment (RISA)•National Ice Center (NIC)•Education: IPY/NSTA symposia•Association of Science and Technology Centers (IGLO PROGRAM)•Climate Change in the Arctic Ocean-Teacher Development project.

International Polar Year: Data, Outreach & Decision Support

•NOAA’s Data, Information, and Change Detection•Regional Integrated Science and Assessment (RISA)•National Ice Center (NIC)•Education: IPY/NSTA symposia•Association of Science and Technology Centers (IGLO PROGRAM)•Climate Change in the Arctic Ocean-Teacher Development project.

Value to Society

Possible Arctic Influences on Global Climate Change:

• Increase of methane in the atmosphere due to a thaw in the permafrost on land and under water

• Fresh water /salt water unbalances, Ocean circulation disruption

• Changing albedo of the planet due to melting of sea ice and taller vegetation

• Extinction or migration of many species

• Rising sea level due to the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet

• Increase in severe weather 26

Changes in sea ice coverChange in planetary albedo

Melting permafrostrelease of greenhouse

sequestered gases

Melting Greenland ice sheet – Rises in sea level

Atmospheric Influences on the total system are profound

Pacific Gateway

Sea Ice thinning is predicted to Continue

Major Alterations of Fresh Water transport to the Atlantic

Impact on global thermohaline circulation

19791990

Reduction of Arctic sea ice may encourage shipping from Asia to Europe through the Arctic.

Effects on Commerce

Thank You