Status of Sacramento River Winter Run Chinook Salmon: What...

Status of Sacramento River Winter Run Chinook Salmon: What is Needed to Achieve

Viability?Maria Rea

NOAA FisheriesCalifornia Central Valley Office

Assistant Regional Administrator

Steve LindleyNOAA Fisheries

Southwest Fisheries Science CenterDirector, Fisheries Ecology Division

Bay Delta Science ConferenceNovember 17, 2016

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries |

Winter-run Chinook salmon

Historical Distribution

• Historically: 4 populations• Cold water spring fed rivers


• Currently: 1 population that is supplemented with hatchery production

• Persists due to cold water releases from Shasta Reservoir

Shasta Reservoir

Winter-runChinook salmon

Current Distribution

Viability criteria: populations


Crite-rion

Extinction risk from PVA

Population sizea

Population dec]ine

Catastrophe, tate and. e.·ffectd

Hatchery inftuencef

e NOAA FISHERIES

High

> 20% witmn 20 years

-or any ONE of-

Ne < 50

-or-

N < 250

Precipitous declineb

Order of magnitude decline within one ge-neration

High

Risk of Ex tinction

Moderate Low

> :5% within < 5% within

lOOyears lOO years

-or any ONE -or ALL of-

of-

50 < Ne < 500 Ne > 500

-or- -or-

250 < N < N > 2500 2500

Chronic decline No dedine or depressionc apparent or

p11obable

SLrna1ler but not apparent significant dedi nee

Moderate Low

Winter-run Chinook Salmon Adult Returns


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Winter-run Chinook salmon

Recovered Spawning Distribution

• 3 spawning areas, each meeting low extinction risk criteria


• Shasta Reservoir Temperature Management

• Battle Creek Restoration & Reintroduction

• McCloud River Reintroduction

• Yolo Bypass• Delta Conditions


Winter-run Chinook Salmon Action Plan

Life cycle approach

Key actions are needed at each life stage Sacramento

River Migration &

Rearing

Sub-adults & Adults in

Ocean

Delta Migration &

Rearing

Spawning & Egg Incubation



Action 1:Water temperature management for spawners, eggs, and fry- Model advances (RAFT)- Improved measurements- Partnership with senior water rights holders/rice growers- Physical modifications

-Oak Bottom Temperature Curtain


Sacramento River

Migration & Rearing

Sub-adults & Adults in

Ocean

Delta Migration &

Rearing




Action 2:Battle Creek Restorationand Reintroduction




Action 3:McCloud River Reintroduction


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er T

empe

ratu

re (F

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58

56

54

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50

- Sacramento River at Clear Creek 48

- McCloud River at TNC 46 5/1/2014 6/1/2014 7/1/2014 8/1/2014 9/1/2014 10/1/2014 11/1/2014

e NOAA FISHERIES


McCloud Pilot Reintroduction Fieldwork Framework

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Action 4: Improve Yolo Bypass Fish Habitat and Passage


Sacramento River

Migration & Rearing

Delta Migration &

Rearing

Juveniles


Sub-adults & Adults in Ocean


Sacramento River

https://yolobypass.wikispaces.com/http://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article66971182.html


https://yolobypass.wikispaces.com/http://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article66971182.html

Action 5: Managing Delta Conditions:- Implement CVP/SWP operations to minimize reverse flows

- Continued commitment to science, monitoring, and adaptive management

- Real-time acoustic telemetry

- Particle tracking model

- Non-physical barriers Sub-adults & Adults in Ocean

Delta Migration &

Rearing

Juveniles

Juveniles


Creating usable science in response to management drought challenges

• NMFS RPA relies on seasonal planning and predictions• Decision tree approach that accounts for variability and has

performance metrics to be achieved over time• February forecast is key decision point to set

allocations/operations – significant uncertainties in predicting summer temperatures. 90% goal.

• May temperature plan – want to optimize expenditure of cold water and predict survivals

• Fall carryover storage and releases


Drought Monitor 2011 - 2016


2011 2012 2013

2014 2015 2016

Source: https://www.drought.gov/drought/california

Lessons learned on Shasta Temp management• Sensitivity of cold water to spring releases; partnership with rice

growers to reschedule water• Need enhanced coupled reservoir model to create better tool for

February forecast decision to achieve 90% goal • Assumptions on ambient air temps are important• TCD – last side gate operation by Oct 15th is new planning metric• Survival model based on lab data was not reliable for decision

support in 2015• 56 DAT over most downstream redd is not protective – looking at

55 7DADM• Tracking weekly conditions against modeled predictions may

create better management framework than real-time conditions alone.


Questions?

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | e NOAA FISHERIES

Evolution of information on Shasta Temperatures2014: February standard temperature model predicted 56 degrees could be met throughout summer – in fact ran out of cold water in August.Learning:– Reschedule spring releases to rice to enhance cold water- Added more conservative ambient temps to model- Delay last side gate operation at TCD to Oct 15th,

2015: February standard temperature model predicted 56 could be met throughout summer, with buffer. Survival model predicted low mortality for 57 degrees. In fact, less cold water than predicted; significant mortalities in 2015Learning: - Need real-time fiber optic cable, coupled reservoir model with explicit uncertainties- Develop new survival model using RAFT and RBDD data- Explore causal mechanisms of high mortality


Evolution of information on Shasta Temperatures• 2016 – Planned for colder temperatures at most downstream redd

(55 7DADM as a “pilot”)• Used 52 degrees at Keswick, real-time reservoir profiles, and spring

storage targets to enhance existing model interpretations.• Conservative approach to spring releases to account for

uncertainties in lake stratification (new model in development)• Summer management: tracked rate of expenditure of cold water

against what was modeled. Triggers in plan.

Results: Successful temperature management


EXTRA SLIDES TO POTENTIALLY USE



Sacramento River Water Temperature - 2013

Slide provided by Eric Danner NMFS SWFSC

2013

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50

120

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec


Sacramento River Water Temperature - 2014

Slide provided by Eric Danner NMFS SWFSC

2014

62

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120

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Slide provided by Eric Danner NMFS SWFSC

Winter-run Egg Survival Probability

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2015 Temperature-Dependent Survival 1

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U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Historical floodplain ecosystem (TBI 1998)

Recent floodplain ecosystem (TBI 1998)

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0 0 -

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U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Historical floodplain ecosystem (TBI 1998)

Recent floodplain ecosystem (TBI 1998)


Juvenile fish get pulled towards pumps – poor survival

MWD 2015


• Population is at moderate risk based on extinction risk criteria

• 2016 adults returns likely will still result in low risk based on population size (even with extreme drought and poor ocean conditions)

Reasons for hope



Action 1:Water temperature management for spawners, eggs, and fry- Model advances (RAFT)- Improved measurements

(Do not want a repeat of 2014)

Decision Support System

Figure provided by Eric Danner NMFS SWFSC


http://www.ovivowater.com/

Non-physical barriersDeter fish from entering the central Delta

e NOAA FISHERIES

Shasta Reservoir

Winter-runChinook salmon

Unique to Sacramento River

Life History• Adult migration in winter

• Spawn in spring and summer

• Juveniles spend 5-10 months in freshwater

• Adults spend 1-2 years in ocean

JuvenilesAdults

Juveniles

Egg to Fry Survival (%)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


% S

urvi

val


• We’re learning a lot!• Water temperature management and egg survival• Life cycle modeling• Predation studies• Acoustic tracking• Monitoring gaps

• Significant partnerships in agreement on what key restoration needs to be done

• Species in the Spotlight initiative helping to focus existing funding (e.g., CVPIA)

• Restoration funding is increasing• CA Prop 1, Fisheries Restoration Grant Program• NOAA Restoration Center

Reasons for hope

Status of Sacramento River Winter Run Chinook Salmon: What...

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